Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:33 am

If Taiwan had nuclear weapons, China would think twice before attacking.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1474
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:14 am

Aesma wrote:
With the fall of Kabul the willingness of the US to fight is into question again, and China is taking advantage of it.

China portrays the U.S. as ‘weak and unreliable’ to draw Taiwan closer : https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/china-w ... alyst.html

Kiwirob wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas


You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.


For my part I don't think it has to be WW3 even if Taiwan is defended. You don't need to touch mainland China, just shoot at the aircraft, the ships, the landing men.

If Taiwan leaders are smart (and I'm sure they are, or have smart people available) a lot of their defense plans are very secret, with hidden and unknown weapons and strategies.

Saying that China has unlimited resources and people to conduct an invasion is not realistic IMHO, that war would already make China a pariah on the world stage and crash its economy, it might also lead to an embargo, with food shortages, oil shortages etc. as a result, but more importantly, people in China might be under the spell of the CCP, but having literally millions of soldiers dying to take Taiwan for no good reason is difficult to spin.


The biggest differences between Taiwan and Afghanistan is the fact that Taiwan is a rich country. Many American companies have significant interest in the island.
Remember, Japan and South Korea is watching Taiwan as well. Japan have historically been supportive of Taiwan, and any damage to the island would make any current Japanese government looks weak, which would be unpopular amongst the Conservatives factions of the country. Meanwhile South Korea is looking at the US with their North korea situation. If the US failed to defend Taiwan, North Korea could potentially seized this opportunity to create problem with Seoul. They probably won't be able to take over South Korea, but with the backing of China, they could do some heavy damage to South Korea.

Taiwan also strengthen its alliance with India. Any party governing India at the time of the invasion would get significant boost from preventing Taiwan falls into the Chinese hands. This would solidified India as the next Super power if they succeed. It would also tip the power in Asia. Any failure to act on this would caused the current cabinet to lose votes in the elections.

Don't forget about Vietnam and Philippines interests in South China Sea. With a little nudge, they would put their hands into the match, especially if they get significant backing from Washington, Tokyo, Delhi and Brussels.
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5821
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:04 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
With the fall of Kabul the willingness of the US to fight is into question again, and China is taking advantage of it.

China portrays the U.S. as ‘weak and unreliable’ to draw Taiwan closer : https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/china-w ... alyst.html

Kiwirob wrote:

You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.


For my part I don't think it has to be WW3 even if Taiwan is defended. You don't need to touch mainland China, just shoot at the aircraft, the ships, the landing men.

If Taiwan leaders are smart (and I'm sure they are, or have smart people available) a lot of their defense plans are very secret, with hidden and unknown weapons and strategies.

Saying that China has unlimited resources and people to conduct an invasion is not realistic IMHO, that war would already make China a pariah on the world stage and crash its economy, it might also lead to an embargo, with food shortages, oil shortages etc. as a result, but more importantly, people in China might be under the spell of the CCP, but having literally millions of soldiers dying to take Taiwan for no good reason is difficult to spin.


The biggest differences between Taiwan and Afghanistan is the fact that Taiwan is a rich country. Many American companies have significant interest in the island.
Remember, Japan and South Korea is watching Taiwan as well. Japan have historically been supportive of Taiwan, and any damage to the island would make any current Japanese government looks weak, which would be unpopular amongst the Conservatives factions of the country. Meanwhile South Korea is looking at the US with their North korea situation. If the US failed to defend Taiwan, North Korea could potentially seized this opportunity to create problem with Seoul. They probably won't be able to take over South Korea, but with the backing of China, they could do some heavy damage to South Korea.

Taiwan also strengthen its alliance with India. Any party governing India at the time of the invasion would get significant boost from preventing Taiwan falls into the Chinese hands. This would solidified India as the next Super power if they succeed. It would also tip the power in Asia. Any failure to act on this would caused the current cabinet to lose votes in the elections.

Don't forget about Vietnam and Philippines interests in South China Sea. With a little nudge, they would put their hands into the match, especially if they get significant backing from Washington, Tokyo, Delhi and Brussels.

Japan's military force is a SDF, a force being legally barred from attacking others and can only defend themselves, as a result of WWII, even tho there are movement to reinterpret or rewrite the constitution.
South Korea's military, due to the effect of Korean War, are still going to be controlled by the US command center in case South Korea engage in conflict, due to events in the Korean War.
South Korea is also trying to balance themselves better between the US and China, as well as distancing themselves from Japan for more friendly relationship with North Korea. With Taiwan being diplomatically closer to Japan than South Korea, I don't think South Korean government would feel the need or benefits of help defending Taiwan
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:12 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
With the fall of Kabul the willingness of the US to fight is into question again, and China is taking advantage of it.

China portrays the U.S. as ‘weak and unreliable’ to draw Taiwan closer : https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/china-w ... alyst.html

Kiwirob wrote:

You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.


For my part I don't think it has to be WW3 even if Taiwan is defended. You don't need to touch mainland China, just shoot at the aircraft, the ships, the landing men.

If Taiwan leaders are smart (and I'm sure they are, or have smart people available) a lot of their defense plans are very secret, with hidden and unknown weapons and strategies.

Saying that China has unlimited resources and people to conduct an invasion is not realistic IMHO, that war would already make China a pariah on the world stage and crash its economy, it might also lead to an embargo, with food shortages, oil shortages etc. as a result, but more importantly, people in China might be under the spell of the CCP, but having literally millions of soldiers dying to take Taiwan for no good reason is difficult to spin.


The biggest differences between Taiwan and Afghanistan is the fact that Taiwan is a rich country. Many American companies have significant interest in the island.
Remember, Japan and South Korea is watching Taiwan as well. Japan have historically been supportive of Taiwan, and any damage to the island would make any current Japanese government looks weak, which would be unpopular amongst the Conservatives factions of the country. Meanwhile South Korea is looking at the US with their North korea situation. If the US failed to defend Taiwan, North Korea could potentially seized this opportunity to create problem with Seoul. They probably won't be able to take over South Korea, but with the backing of China, they could do some heavy damage to South Korea.

Taiwan also strengthen its alliance with India. Any party governing India at the time of the invasion would get significant boost from preventing Taiwan falls into the Chinese hands. This would solidified India as the next Super power if they succeed. It would also tip the power in Asia. Any failure to act on this would caused the current cabinet to lose votes in the elections.

Don't forget about Vietnam and Philippines interests in South China Sea. With a little nudge, they would put their hands into the match, especially if they get significant backing from Washington, Tokyo, Delhi and Brussels.


Japan cannot lend military assistance to defend Taiwan.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:14 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
If Taiwan had nuclear weapons, China would think twice before attacking.


Not really necessary because the US nuclear umbrella extends to ROK, Japan and ROC.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10993
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:27 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
If Taiwan had nuclear weapons, China would think twice before attacking.

...you sure they don't?? Having a power station is not automatic, but......
https://world-nuclear.org/information-l ... aiwan.aspx
 
ewt340
Posts: 1474
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:00 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
With the fall of Kabul the willingness of the US to fight is into question again, and China is taking advantage of it.

China portrays the U.S. as ‘weak and unreliable’ to draw Taiwan closer : https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/china-w ... alyst.html



For my part I don't think it has to be WW3 even if Taiwan is defended. You don't need to touch mainland China, just shoot at the aircraft, the ships, the landing men.

If Taiwan leaders are smart (and I'm sure they are, or have smart people available) a lot of their defense plans are very secret, with hidden and unknown weapons and strategies.

Saying that China has unlimited resources and people to conduct an invasion is not realistic IMHO, that war would already make China a pariah on the world stage and crash its economy, it might also lead to an embargo, with food shortages, oil shortages etc. as a result, but more importantly, people in China might be under the spell of the CCP, but having literally millions of soldiers dying to take Taiwan for no good reason is difficult to spin.


The biggest differences between Taiwan and Afghanistan is the fact that Taiwan is a rich country. Many American companies have significant interest in the island.
Remember, Japan and South Korea is watching Taiwan as well. Japan have historically been supportive of Taiwan, and any damage to the island would make any current Japanese government looks weak, which would be unpopular amongst the Conservatives factions of the country. Meanwhile South Korea is looking at the US with their North korea situation. If the US failed to defend Taiwan, North Korea could potentially seized this opportunity to create problem with Seoul. They probably won't be able to take over South Korea, but with the backing of China, they could do some heavy damage to South Korea.

Taiwan also strengthen its alliance with India. Any party governing India at the time of the invasion would get significant boost from preventing Taiwan falls into the Chinese hands. This would solidified India as the next Super power if they succeed. It would also tip the power in Asia. Any failure to act on this would caused the current cabinet to lose votes in the elections.

Don't forget about Vietnam and Philippines interests in South China Sea. With a little nudge, they would put their hands into the match, especially if they get significant backing from Washington, Tokyo, Delhi and Brussels.


Japan cannot lend military assistance to defend Taiwan.


Of course they can't. But it doesn't mean that they wouldn't help with some funding and manpower.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1474
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:03 pm

c933103 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
With the fall of Kabul the willingness of the US to fight is into question again, and China is taking advantage of it.

China portrays the U.S. as ‘weak and unreliable’ to draw Taiwan closer : https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/china-w ... alyst.html



For my part I don't think it has to be WW3 even if Taiwan is defended. You don't need to touch mainland China, just shoot at the aircraft, the ships, the landing men.

If Taiwan leaders are smart (and I'm sure they are, or have smart people available) a lot of their defense plans are very secret, with hidden and unknown weapons and strategies.

Saying that China has unlimited resources and people to conduct an invasion is not realistic IMHO, that war would already make China a pariah on the world stage and crash its economy, it might also lead to an embargo, with food shortages, oil shortages etc. as a result, but more importantly, people in China might be under the spell of the CCP, but having literally millions of soldiers dying to take Taiwan for no good reason is difficult to spin.


The biggest differences between Taiwan and Afghanistan is the fact that Taiwan is a rich country. Many American companies have significant interest in the island.
Remember, Japan and South Korea is watching Taiwan as well. Japan have historically been supportive of Taiwan, and any damage to the island would make any current Japanese government looks weak, which would be unpopular amongst the Conservatives factions of the country. Meanwhile South Korea is looking at the US with their North korea situation. If the US failed to defend Taiwan, North Korea could potentially seized this opportunity to create problem with Seoul. They probably won't be able to take over South Korea, but with the backing of China, they could do some heavy damage to South Korea.

Taiwan also strengthen its alliance with India. Any party governing India at the time of the invasion would get significant boost from preventing Taiwan falls into the Chinese hands. This would solidified India as the next Super power if they succeed. It would also tip the power in Asia. Any failure to act on this would caused the current cabinet to lose votes in the elections.

Don't forget about Vietnam and Philippines interests in South China Sea. With a little nudge, they would put their hands into the match, especially if they get significant backing from Washington, Tokyo, Delhi and Brussels.

Japan's military force is a SDF, a force being legally barred from attacking others and can only defend themselves, as a result of WWII, even tho there are movement to reinterpret or rewrite the constitution.
South Korea's military, due to the effect of Korean War, are still going to be controlled by the US command center in case South Korea engage in conflict, due to events in the Korean War.
South Korea is also trying to balance themselves better between the US and China, as well as distancing themselves from Japan for more friendly relationship with North Korea. With Taiwan being diplomatically closer to Japan than South Korea, I don't think South Korean government would feel the need or benefits of help defending Taiwan


Of course Japan wouldn't get involved directly. But they would definitely help supply and coordinate with the US government during the conflict.

And while South Korea didn't see much benefits from siding with Taiwan in this conflict. It's in their best interest if Taiwan didn't fall into Chinese hand.
Think about it, they got Enemies in the North of their border with North Korea, enemies in the west border with China and strained relationship with countries in their eastern border.
If Taiwan fall, they would get surrounded.

Also, China have been pushing restrictions on some of Korean products and influence domestically. They can try to balance themself with China. But the last time I check, it hasn't work out that much.
 
johns624
Posts: 4358
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:56 pm

Some of you aren't aware of the latest Japanese defense white paper. They've expanded their definition of defense, while talking about Taiwan and China directly. Basically, they say that if there is a local conflict that will have an effect on Japan, getting involved is defense.
Most don't know it, but Japan has probably the 3rd best navy in the world, if you discount nuclear weapons. I'd say its air force is Top 5, also.
https://www.cna.org/news/InDepth/2021/0 ... wan-strait
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14861
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:40 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
If Taiwan had nuclear weapons, China would think twice before attacking.


Not really necessary because the US nuclear umbrella extends to ROK, Japan and ROC.


That doesn't really work if MAD is involved. Yes the US would probably help Taiwan, but not if the price is a nuke lobbed at the US mainland.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:50 pm

Aesma wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
If Taiwan had nuclear weapons, China would think twice before attacking.


Not really necessary because the US nuclear umbrella extends to ROK, Japan and ROC.


That doesn't really work if MAD is involved. Yes the US would probably help Taiwan, but not if the price is a nuke lobbed at the US mainland.


And PRC would instigate such an event because they suddenly stopped loving to make money? Nah, not buying it.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1372
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:17 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Not really necessary because the US nuclear umbrella extends to ROK, Japan and ROC.


That doesn't really work if MAD is involved. Yes the US would probably help Taiwan, but not if the price is a nuke lobbed at the US mainland.


And PRC would instigate such an event because they suddenly stopped loving to make money? Nah, not buying it.


China has been building nukes primarily for this eventuality. Again, reading history helps to understand PRC ideas. In the Carter years, he said "A nuclear war can never be won." But the exception was US versus PRC in a conflict over Taiwan, because China could not destroy the US. The US would destroy China and Taiwan would be defended.

This is probably no longer true. If the US hit China with a nuke, all Americans (and perhaps all people in the world) would die.

So US defending Taiwan with nukes is not credible. Taiwan is far from being US territory. It is not equivalent to NATO. It is at BEST ambiguously under the US nuclear umbrella, but if push comes to shove, it is not.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:56 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Aesma wrote:

That doesn't really work if MAD is involved. Yes the US would probably help Taiwan, but not if the price is a nuke lobbed at the US mainland.


And PRC would instigate such an event because they suddenly stopped loving to make money? Nah, not buying it.


China has been building nukes primarily for this eventuality. Again, reading history helps to understand PRC ideas. In the Carter years, he said "A nuclear war can never be won." But the exception was US versus PRC in a conflict over Taiwan, because China could not destroy the US. The US would destroy China and Taiwan would be defended.

This is probably no longer true. If the US hit China with a nuke, all Americans (and perhaps all people in the world) would die.

So US defending Taiwan with nukes is not credible. Taiwan is far from being US territory. It is not equivalent to NATO. It is at BEST ambiguously under the US nuclear umbrella, but if push comes to shove, it is not.


MAD is a two-way street and that was my point. PRC is not going to sacrifice their economic gains and strength by threatening ROC with nukes - US umbrella presence in the region is part of that calculation.

That said, your point about not having equivalency to NATO is well taken. Many who follow foreign policy have been calling for a badly-needed update to the TRA. As you noted, 1979 was a long time ago, and a completely different paradigm as far as the PRC. The issues are encapsulated well here:

https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/the-tai ... act-at-40/
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5821
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:43 am

ewt340 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

The biggest differences between Taiwan and Afghanistan is the fact that Taiwan is a rich country. Many American companies have significant interest in the island.
Remember, Japan and South Korea is watching Taiwan as well. Japan have historically been supportive of Taiwan, and any damage to the island would make any current Japanese government looks weak, which would be unpopular amongst the Conservatives factions of the country. Meanwhile South Korea is looking at the US with their North korea situation. If the US failed to defend Taiwan, North Korea could potentially seized this opportunity to create problem with Seoul. They probably won't be able to take over South Korea, but with the backing of China, they could do some heavy damage to South Korea.

Taiwan also strengthen its alliance with India. Any party governing India at the time of the invasion would get significant boost from preventing Taiwan falls into the Chinese hands. This would solidified India as the next Super power if they succeed. It would also tip the power in Asia. Any failure to act on this would caused the current cabinet to lose votes in the elections.

Don't forget about Vietnam and Philippines interests in South China Sea. With a little nudge, they would put their hands into the match, especially if they get significant backing from Washington, Tokyo, Delhi and Brussels.

Japan's military force is a SDF, a force being legally barred from attacking others and can only defend themselves, as a result of WWII, even tho there are movement to reinterpret or rewrite the constitution.
South Korea's military, due to the effect of Korean War, are still going to be controlled by the US command center in case South Korea engage in conflict, due to events in the Korean War.
South Korea is also trying to balance themselves better between the US and China, as well as distancing themselves from Japan for more friendly relationship with North Korea. With Taiwan being diplomatically closer to Japan than South Korea, I don't think South Korean government would feel the need or benefits of help defending Taiwan


Of course Japan wouldn't get involved directly. But they would definitely help supply and coordinate with the US government during the conflict.

And while South Korea didn't see much benefits from siding with Taiwan in this conflict. It's in their best interest if Taiwan didn't fall into Chinese hand.
Think about it, they got Enemies in the North of their border with North Korea, enemies in the west border with China and strained relationship with countries in their eastern border.
If Taiwan fall, they would get surrounded.

Also, China have been pushing restrictions on some of Korean products and influence domestically. They can try to balance themself with China. But the last time I check, it hasn't work out that much.

By balance, I mean balancing against their alliance with United States for a position closer to China. Effectively Finlandization. They got hit by economic actions from China over THAAD, which make them becoming more careful when handling topics related to China, and also make them realize the importance of maintaining good relationship with them.
Last year, their ambassador to the US have said that, in the past 60 years, South Korea allied with the United States, but things can change in the future.
"S. Korea can now 'choose' between U.S., China: ambassador | Yonhap News Agency" https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200604000300325

As for Japan, while they're likely to help with the US when US intent to help defending Taiwan, it is necessary for the US to actually make the move so that such supply and support can be provided and be used effectively. Which heavily depends on political atmosphere in the US, if most people in the US say they don't want to get into another war across the world even if it is for allies against invaders, then the US government cannot really disrespect such opinion.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1372
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:34 am

Aaron747 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

And PRC would instigate such an event because they suddenly stopped loving to make money? Nah, not buying it.


China has been building nukes primarily for this eventuality. Again, reading history helps to understand PRC ideas. In the Carter years, he said "A nuclear war can never be won." But the exception was US versus PRC in a conflict over Taiwan, because China could not destroy the US. The US would destroy China and Taiwan would be defended.

This is probably no longer true. If the US hit China with a nuke, all Americans (and perhaps all people in the world) would die.

So US defending Taiwan with nukes is not credible. Taiwan is far from being US territory. It is not equivalent to NATO. It is at BEST ambiguously under the US nuclear umbrella, but if push comes to shove, it is not.


MAD is a two-way street and that was my point. PRC is not going to sacrifice their economic gains and strength by threatening ROC with nukes - US umbrella presence in the region is part of that calculation.

That said, your point about not having equivalency to NATO is well taken. Many who follow foreign policy have been calling for a badly-needed update to the TRA. As you noted, 1979 was a long time ago, and a completely different paradigm as far as the PRC. The issues are encapsulated well here:

https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/the-tai ... act-at-40/
cool, I will read this. But let me spell this out, I think China could threaten a bit of nuclear weapons on Taiwan. The US would not invoke MAD over it. So China can do it. China is boss on this IMO. We should given citizenship to Taiwan passport holders and let history run its course. Fighting WW3 over it is asinine. Let’s prepare for WW3 but not over that.
 
johns624
Posts: 4358
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:42 am

LCDFlight wrote:
. But let me spell this out, I think China could threaten a bit of nuclear weapons on Taiwan. The US would not invoke MAD over it. So China can do it. China is boss on this IMO. We should given citizenship to Taiwan passport holders and let history run its course. Fighting WW3 over it is asinine. Let’s prepare for WW3 but not over that.
Where would you draw the line? Japan? Hawaii? California? What makes you think all (or most) Taiwanese would leave their homes and move to the US?
 
Ken777
Posts: 10199
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:32 am

One issue I would look for is the movement of companies in Taiwan who are moving out - like to India. Companies like Apple are supporting jobs of tens of thousands and leaving would be painful for China to make up. China is also very aware of the level of wealth that comes in with commerce and probably don't want that impacted. But then I cannot understand why they screwed up Hong Kong's reputation as an independent area that sucks in tourists and tourist's spending big time.

I was in Taiwan I '69 during a WestPac Deployment when we went to Kaohsiung. I can remember LP records were 25¢ each and medical texts were $2 or $3 - far below the costs in the US.

Best deals IMO was tying a barge up to the fantail for collecting uneaten food from the mess decks in exchange for the ship getting painted and saving spent brass shells for contributions to the CO's crew funds. I did get some small bits of brass that I still have around the house somewhere.

Taiwan's real power though is the high tech production and I can't see that killed.
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5821
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:16 am

Aaron747 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

And PRC would instigate such an event because they suddenly stopped loving to make money? Nah, not buying it.


China has been building nukes primarily for this eventuality. Again, reading history helps to understand PRC ideas. In the Carter years, he said "A nuclear war can never be won." But the exception was US versus PRC in a conflict over Taiwan, because China could not destroy the US. The US would destroy China and Taiwan would be defended.

This is probably no longer true. If the US hit China with a nuke, all Americans (and perhaps all people in the world) would die.

So US defending Taiwan with nukes is not credible. Taiwan is far from being US territory. It is not equivalent to NATO. It is at BEST ambiguously under the US nuclear umbrella, but if push comes to shove, it is not.


MAD is a two-way street and that was my point. PRC is not going to sacrifice their economic gains and strength by threatening ROC with nukes - US umbrella presence in the region is part of that calculation.

That said, your point about not having equivalency to NATO is well taken. Many who follow foreign policy have been calling for a badly-needed update to the TRA. As you noted, 1979 was a long time ago, and a completely different paradigm as far as the PRC. The issues are encapsulated well here:

https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/the-tai ... act-at-40/

US presence in the region didn't have nuclear weapons as far as I know, and China ever since Cold War time have been planning on a war that would involve their territory gettong nuked, by Soviet at the time.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:23 am

c933103 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

China has been building nukes primarily for this eventuality. Again, reading history helps to understand PRC ideas. In the Carter years, he said "A nuclear war can never be won." But the exception was US versus PRC in a conflict over Taiwan, because China could not destroy the US. The US would destroy China and Taiwan would be defended.

This is probably no longer true. If the US hit China with a nuke, all Americans (and perhaps all people in the world) would die.

So US defending Taiwan with nukes is not credible. Taiwan is far from being US territory. It is not equivalent to NATO. It is at BEST ambiguously under the US nuclear umbrella, but if push comes to shove, it is not.


MAD is a two-way street and that was my point. PRC is not going to sacrifice their economic gains and strength by threatening ROC with nukes - US umbrella presence in the region is part of that calculation.

That said, your point about not having equivalency to NATO is well taken. Many who follow foreign policy have been calling for a badly-needed update to the TRA. As you noted, 1979 was a long time ago, and a completely different paradigm as far as the PRC. The issues are encapsulated well here:

https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/the-tai ... act-at-40/

US presence in the region didn't have nuclear weapons as far as I know, and China ever since Cold War time have been planning on a war that would involve their territory gettong nuked, by Soviet at the time.


US stored nuclear weapons in Japan until the early 1970s, after that there is a tacit policy where US Navy ships with nuclear weapons can use Japanese facilities without government permission. US forces do not confirm or deny presence or transit of tactical weapons.
 
RMQFinn
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:40 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:33 am

Japan and Taiwan have certainly gotten a lot closer together in the past months. There was just a mutual defense meeting between the governments.

You can look at the problem another way as well. What would Japan and USA do if Taiwan surrendered to China? There is a lot of technology in Taiwan that neither country wants to hand over and of course there is the geographical issue that China needs Taiwan first if they want to do something about Japan. Would USA let Taiwan become part of China? Would Japan?

The CCP seems to have gotten a lot more worried about western influence to its power. I personally am also surprised that they didn't keep Hong Kong separate (at this pace the border will be torn down in maybe 2 years). I think it will cost quite a bit for them in the next few years with the change accelerating move of business to Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and so on.

Interesting times. Especially being a foreigner living in Taiwan.
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13704
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:13 am

Ken777 wrote:

Taiwan's real power though is the high tech production and I can't see that killed.


This. I believe if China made a real push for Taiwan the Taiwanese would capitulate without putting up much if any fight, they have too much to lose if the country is flattened and it’s industry destroyed.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:19 am

Ken777 wrote:
One issue I would look for is the movement of companies in Taiwan who are moving out - like to India. Companies like Apple are supporting jobs of tens of thousands and leaving would be painful for China to make up. China is also very aware of the level of wealth that comes in with commerce and probably don't want that impacted. But then I cannot understand why they screwed up Hong Kong's reputation as an independent area that sucks in tourists and tourist's spending big time.

I was in Taiwan I '69 during a WestPac Deployment when we went to Kaohsiung. I can remember LP records were 25¢ each and medical texts were $2 or $3 - far below the costs in the US.

Best deals IMO was tying a barge up to the fantail for collecting uneaten food from the mess decks in exchange for the ship getting painted and saving spent brass shells for contributions to the CO's crew funds. I did get some small bits of brass that I still have around the house somewhere.

Taiwan's real power though is the high tech production and I can't see that killed.


You were there at an incredible time of transition Ken. You probably wouldn't recognize today's Kaohsiung:

Image

Image source: Bigstock
 
johns624
Posts: 4358
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:59 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Ken777 wrote:

Taiwan's real power though is the high tech production and I can't see that killed.


This. I believe if China made a real push for Taiwan the Taiwanese would capitulate without putting up much if any fight, they have too much to lose if the country is flattened and it’s industry destroyed.
Before the HKG accelerated takeover, I would agree with you. Not any more.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1086
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:57 pm

Dealing with a resurgent China reminds me of the boiling frog syndrome. The rest of the world is the Frog.

Right now the best asymmetrical weapons the US has putting road blocks on Chinese trade. You are seeing it with the actions of the NY stock exchange. We may not go nuke to save Taiwan but with a order from the President, every US govt security owned by the Chinese could be rendered worthless. Hence China's goal someday to replace the USD as the reserve currency.

China relies heavily on sea borne commerce. Perhaps that's the reason for the island building along with their road building program. Think of all the protein China gets from their huge fishing fleets which are every where. Remember all that film of Allied fighters shooting up Japanese fishing trawlers in WWII ? The Chinese remember.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:59 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Dealing with a resurgent China reminds me of the boiling frog syndrome. The rest of the world is the Frog.

Right now the best asymmetrical weapons the US has putting road blocks on Chinese trade. You are seeing it with the actions of the NY stock exchange. We may not go nuke to save Taiwan but with a order from the President, every US govt security owned by the Chinese could be rendered worthless. Hence China's goal someday to replace the USD as the reserve currency.

China relies heavily on sea borne commerce. Perhaps that's the reason for the island building along with their road building program. Think of all the protein China gets from their huge fishing fleets which are every where. Remember all that film of Allied fighters shooting up Japanese fishing trawlers in WWII ? The Chinese remember.


Good points - if they make the high tech move to vertical agriculture and synthetic meats it's over.
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sun Aug 29, 2021 3:37 pm

I think China doesn't care about a possible economic fallout. Look what they just did to Hong Kong within a couple of weeks.
 
johns624
Posts: 4358
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sun Aug 29, 2021 4:56 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
I think China doesn't care about a possible economic fallout. Look what they just did to Hong Kong within a couple of weeks.

Hong Kong didn't fight back. Taiwan would. Besides, Hong Kong was a foregone conclusion once the British left. It just happened a little sooner.
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 453
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:59 pm

scbriml wrote:
Of course, it’s all the democrats fault. :lol:

Let’s conveniently ignore that the previous president was so tough he became best buddies with NK and let them continue with their nuclear program and missile testing.


I know it is a forum rule to get the extraneous Trump slam in at all times, but regarding specific NK policy, functionally, the US isn't going to have much leverage on NK as long as the Chinese are pretty much all in on the sanctions busting game and share territorial waters and a common border with North Korea.

It makes pragmatic sense from the Chinese view, as they, along with the Japanese, ROK and others are all about stability, not regime change, on Pen.

If we are going to talk terrible NK policy, I would certainly nominate Clinton, who allowed the breakout nuclear program in the first place, along with the calculated insult of the USS Pueblo being towed in international waters. All water under the bridge now. In the defense of the Clinton administration, being foreign policy amateurs meant they were often likely more tied to partner (ROK, Japan) interests than any long term calculated US ones other than the desire for "agreement."
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 453
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:00 pm

johns624 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
I think China doesn't care about a possible economic fallout. Look what they just did to Hong Kong within a couple of weeks.

Hong Kong didn't fight back. Taiwan would. Besides, Hong Kong was a foregone conclusion once the British left. It just happened a little sooner.


Hong Kong did fight back, with the few weapons they had.

One thing they did show was the value of any "agreement" one reaches with the CCP.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:18 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Of course, it’s all the democrats fault. :lol:

Let’s conveniently ignore that the previous president was so tough he became best buddies with NK and let them continue with their nuclear program and missile testing.


I know it is a forum rule to get the extraneous Trump slam in at all times, but regarding specific NK policy, functionally, the US isn't going to have much leverage on NK as long as the Chinese are pretty much all in on the sanctions busting game and share territorial waters and a common border with North Korea.

It makes pragmatic sense from the Chinese view, as they, along with the Japanese, ROK and others are all about stability, not regime change, on Pen.

If we are going to talk terrible NK policy, I would certainly nominate Clinton, who allowed the breakout nuclear program in the first place, along with the calculated insult of the USS Pueblo being towed in international waters. All water under the bridge now. In the defense of the Clinton administration, being foreign policy amateurs meant they were often likely more tied to partner (ROK, Japan) interests than any long term calculated US ones other than the desire for "agreement."


In geopolitics there are five sides to a story, and re PRC assisting DPRK sanctions busting, you forgot the primary why: they don’t want a flood of 20 million refugees over their border when the regime collapses
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1086
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:25 pm

I doubt China would attempt a direct invasion on Taiwan. Amphibious and airborne forces (ala D-Day) would suffer devastating loses because weapons today are so much more effective than what the German/Japanese/North Korean/Argentine defenders had against seaborne/helicopter/paratroopers.
If US attack submarines became involved, I'm not sure they could cross the Strait in anything bigger than a large speed boat.

China will find another way.

Edit - all bets are off though if China were to make a weapons technology breakthrough (EMP/Directed energy or cyber) or used biological agents that would render Taiwan's weapons un-serviceable.
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5821
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:56 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
I doubt China would attempt a direct invasion on Taiwan. Amphibious and airborne forces (ala D-Day) would suffer devastating loses because weapons today are so much more effective than what the German/Japanese/North Korean/Argentine defenders had against seaborne/helicopter/paratroopers.
If US attack submarines became involved, I'm not sure they could cross the Strait in anything bigger than a large speed boat.

China will find another way.

Edit - all bets are off though if China were to make a weapons technology breakthrough (EMP/Directed energy or cyber) or used biological agents that would render Taiwan's weapons un-serviceable.

It is faster to reach Kinmen and Matsu by water from China than by air from Taiwan Main Island, not to mention any American air base. Especially if China planned for such a move and Taiwan/US were caught in supply and thus do not have a proper level of readiness in place while China spent time preparing for such a fight, it'd be quite likely for these islands to fall before Taiwanese/American governments can even react.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sun Aug 29, 2021 8:14 pm

c933103 wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
I doubt China would attempt a direct invasion on Taiwan. Amphibious and airborne forces (ala D-Day) would suffer devastating loses because weapons today are so much more effective than what the German/Japanese/North Korean/Argentine defenders had against seaborne/helicopter/paratroopers.
If US attack submarines became involved, I'm not sure they could cross the Strait in anything bigger than a large speed boat.

China will find another way.

Edit - all bets are off though if China were to make a weapons technology breakthrough (EMP/Directed energy or cyber) or used biological agents that would render Taiwan's weapons un-serviceable.

It is faster to reach Kinmen and Matsu by water from China than by air from Taiwan Main Island, not to mention any American air base. Especially if China planned for such a move and Taiwan/US were caught in supply and thus do not have a proper level of readiness in place while China spent time preparing for such a fight, it'd be quite likely for these islands to fall before Taiwanese/American governments can even react.


Out of curiosity - what was the original reason for KMT to claim islands so close to PRC mainland?
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14861
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:02 pm

Well, you would take these meaningless islands by surprise, but lose all surprise on the invasion of Taiwan itself, what would be the point ?
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5821
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:21 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
I doubt China would attempt a direct invasion on Taiwan. Amphibious and airborne forces (ala D-Day) would suffer devastating loses because weapons today are so much more effective than what the German/Japanese/North Korean/Argentine defenders had against seaborne/helicopter/paratroopers.
If US attack submarines became involved, I'm not sure they could cross the Strait in anything bigger than a large speed boat.

China will find another way.

Edit - all bets are off though if China were to make a weapons technology breakthrough (EMP/Directed energy or cyber) or used biological agents that would render Taiwan's weapons un-serviceable.

It is faster to reach Kinmen and Matsu by water from China than by air from Taiwan Main Island, not to mention any American air base. Especially if China planned for such a move and Taiwan/US were caught in supply and thus do not have a proper level of readiness in place while China spent time preparing for such a fight, it'd be quite likely for these islands to fall before Taiwanese/American governments can even react.


Out of curiosity - what was the original reason for KMT to claim islands so close to PRC mainland?

KMT always claim the entire China. These islands are part of the entire China, so of course KMT would keep claiming them. Even nowadays, they're still named "China Nationalist Party" and are against Taiwan Independence.
It's PRC who failed to conquer them with their military technology at the time, from year 1958 to 1979, until the situation stabilize with the establishment of formal diplomatic ties between USA and PRC.
Although there are also various theories that said for different political/diplomatic reasons the PRC might have intentionally skipped over conquering those islands
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 453
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:44 pm

Aaron747 wrote:

In geopolitics there are five sides to a story, and re PRC assisting DPRK sanctions busting, you forgot the primary why: they don’t want a flood of 20 million refugees over their border when the regime collapses


I mean, I know that's obvious, but as the primary supporter to a 5 decade humanitarian disaster, at what point does the CCP have some culpability?
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 453
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:44 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
I doubt China would attempt a direct invasion on Taiwan. Amphibious and airborne forces (ala D-Day) would suffer devastating loses because weapons today are so much more effective than what the German/Japanese/North Korean/Argentine defenders had against seaborne/helicopter/paratroopers.
If US attack submarines became involved, I'm not sure they could cross the Strait in anything bigger than a large speed boat.

China will find another way.

Edit - all bets are off though if China were to make a weapons technology breakthrough (EMP/Directed energy or cyber) or used biological agents that would render Taiwan's weapons un-serviceable.

It is faster to reach Kinmen and Matsu by water from China than by air from Taiwan Main Island, not to mention any American air base. Especially if China planned for such a move and Taiwan/US were caught in supply and thus do not have a proper level of readiness in place while China spent time preparing for such a fight, it'd be quite likely for these islands to fall before Taiwanese/American governments can even react.


Out of curiosity - what was the original reason for KMT to claim islands so close to PRC mainland?


Legally?
 
cpd
Posts: 6829
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:58 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Ahh politically, no, to the winner goes the spoils and the winner also writes the history. The rest of the world will accept, if they don't, either WWIII or cease trade with China, which one do you think is most likely?


There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas


You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.


Just weaponise Covid and spread it to China.

Or otherwise sneak nukes into Taiwan and China know that if they even move an inch then that’s the end of everything.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1474
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:20 am

johns624 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Ken777 wrote:

Taiwan's real power though is the high tech production and I can't see that killed.


This. I believe if China made a real push for Taiwan the Taiwanese would capitulate without putting up much if any fight, they have too much to lose if the country is flattened and it’s industry destroyed.
Before the HKG accelerated takeover, I would agree with you. Not any more.


But Hong Kong got nothing to offer for the West, India or Japan. Apart from being a gateaway to China BACK then. It lose its influence long time ago.
There are also lots of Mainlanders Chinese who moved to Hong Kong and became residents. They are loyal to Beijing. It didn't happen in Taiwan.

People don't go to Hong Kong to do businesses anymore. They go to Guangzhou, Shenzhen or Shanghai directly.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:47 am

FlapOperator wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

In geopolitics there are five sides to a story, and re PRC assisting DPRK sanctions busting, you forgot the primary why: they don’t want a flood of 20 million refugees over their border when the regime collapses


I mean, I know that's obvious, but as the primary supporter to a 5 decade humanitarian disaster, at what point does the CCP have some culpability?


Culpable to who? They are a permanent member of the UNSC, with all the other arms traders.
 
johns624
Posts: 4358
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:22 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

In geopolitics there are five sides to a story, and re PRC assisting DPRK sanctions busting, you forgot the primary why: they don’t want a flood of 20 million refugees over their border when the regime collapses


I mean, I know that's obvious, but as the primary supporter to a 5 decade humanitarian disaster, at what point does the CCP have some culpability?


Culpable to who? They are a permanent member of the UNSC, with all the other arms traders.
I believe that he was referring to the continued support of North Korea.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:16 pm

johns624 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:

I mean, I know that's obvious, but as the primary supporter to a 5 decade humanitarian disaster, at what point does the CCP have some culpability?


Culpable to who? They are a permanent member of the UNSC, with all the other arms traders.
I believe that he was referring to the continued support of North Korea.


They enable that regime and prefer disaster there to their own - classic realpolitik. And we have all seen what happens to people in PRC who are the wrong religion. The nature of the beast.
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 453
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:50 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Culpable to who? They are a permanent member of the UNSC, with all the other arms traders.
I believe that he was referring to the continued support of North Korea.


They enable that regime and prefer disaster there to their own - classic realpolitik. And we have all seen what happens to people in PRC who are the wrong religion. The nature of the beast.


I'm certain that people would describe the Holodomor or the application of Lebensraum as "classic realpolitik."

Of course, as you note the nature of the beast.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16592
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:47 am

FlapOperator wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
I believe that he was referring to the continued support of North Korea.


They enable that regime and prefer disaster there to their own - classic realpolitik. And we have all seen what happens to people in PRC who are the wrong religion. The nature of the beast.


I'm certain that people would describe the Holodomor or the application of Lebensraum as "classic realpolitik."

Of course, as you note the nature of the beast.


Nobody would because realpolitik refers to looking after national interest in foreign affairs. Your two examples are domestic policies executed via totalitarianism/fascism.
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5821
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:32 am

Kiwirob wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas


You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.

Please describe how "Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese".
Japan specifically started expanding over Taiwam after Qing the Manchurian Chinese Empire claimed Taiwanese aboriginals who killed Japanese nationals in 19th century are "People outside our territory", despite about two centuries ago they conquered it themselves.
In 17th Century, force from Ming dynasty conquered Taiwan, but at the time Ming dynasty was already defeated by Qing and that force was an independent force in Taiwan.
Going further back, Taiwan was colony of Dutch and Spanish.
Before that there were Kingdoms of Taowanese aboriginal residents on the island.
If ROC the Chinese government at the time of 1945's control over Taiwan in the aftermath of WWII, until year 1949 when they lose most of Mainland China, is considered evidence of China controlling Taiwan, then the US control of Japan Mainland from 1945 to 1951 would be an stronger indication of such historical ownership?
 
CH47A
Posts: 144
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2010 4:06 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:01 am

I've been in this region for many decades in both an active duty capacity, Government Schedules capacity, and then as a straight civilian, but still working with a few governments as a civilian. There was a time I was absolutely sure that Aaron747's opinion that the mainland Chinese were too intent on making money to be taking chances of a military nature that caused their nation to be turned into a nuclear wasteland was correct. But an uneasiness has been slowly creeping into my thinking over the past few years that maybe something is going on in that leadership team that is way too close to what I studied about pre-WW2 in Europe. I'm very close to thinking that all bets are off.

Now it costs money to do something like send an aircraft carrier to the other side of the planet so far from your own area of need for military assets, so there must be a few folks in leadership positions in the UK that are also starting to feel uneasy about something going on around the east coast areas of Asia. And they ain't stupid; they want the sea lanes to stay open so as to make money the way they have been doing for centuries.

But, folks, you can bet your sweet bippy that if push comes to shove on this one, tactical nukes will be used very quickly, because those will take out military assets very quickly and reduce the mainland Chinese forces from using quite as many nukes from their arsenal.

And I saw a post above about some new weapons systems and I would also offer 3 to 1 odds that the forces of the U.S. of A. probably have a few surprises of their own.

But it will be an awful, awful mess and I sure hope them folks that are thinking about doing something that would be so awful could maybe consider the lives that would be lost, the destruction that would ensue, and the awful state the planet would then be in for a very, very long time; because nukes will be used. That is for sure. No point in dancing around the truth, because all of you deep down know it is true.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14691
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:58 am

Kiwirob wrote:
Most of the world doesn't recognise the ROC


There are just two (!) countries that don´t recognize the ROC, one of them being the PRC itself. The other is Jamaica.

You are mixing recognizing a country with recognizing a government as speaking for China.

best regards
Thomas
 
GDB
Posts: 14412
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:11 am

CH47A wrote:
I've been in this region for many decades in both an active duty capacity, Government Schedules capacity, and then as a straight civilian, but still working with a few governments as a civilian. There was a time I was absolutely sure that Aaron747's opinion that the mainland Chinese were too intent on making money to be taking chances of a military nature that caused their nation to be turned into a nuclear wasteland was correct. But an uneasiness has been slowly creeping into my thinking over the past few years that maybe something is going on in that leadership team that is way too close to what I studied about pre-WW2 in Europe. I'm very close to thinking that all bets are off.

Now it costs money to do something like send an aircraft carrier to the other side of the planet so far from your own area of need for military assets, so there must be a few folks in leadership positions in the UK that are also starting to feel uneasy about something going on around the east coast areas of Asia. And they ain't stupid; they want the sea lanes to stay open so as to make money the way they have been doing for centuries.

But, folks, you can bet your sweet bippy that if push comes to shove on this one, tactical nukes will be used very quickly, because those will take out military assets very quickly and reduce the mainland Chinese forces from using quite as many nukes from their arsenal.

And I saw a post above about some new weapons systems and I would also offer 3 to 1 odds that the forces of the U.S. of A. probably have a few surprises of their own.

But it will be an awful, awful mess and I sure hope them folks that are thinking about doing something that would be so awful could maybe consider the lives that would be lost, the destruction that would ensue, and the awful state the planet would then be in for a very, very long time; because nukes will be used. That is for sure. No point in dancing around the truth, because all of you deep down know it is true.


China is, after years of maintaining a relatively small force, rapidly expanding it's nuclear arsenal;
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/08/0 ... -pub-85106

It's the SLBM's that are their trump card, sure the most numerous of their, again relative to the US, small main class, that is only as quiet as a 1970's Soviet type, that is not quiet at all, that can only carry 12 single warhead SLBM's, that can only reach most of the US in their assigned patrol areas.
But of 12 of them, plus older ones and more to the point, newer ones coming into service, only ONE has to launch and that is likely a dozen major US targets, major cities most likely, gone.
When justifying his own nation's nuclear program in the face of initial great US hostility, a French strategist point out that 'a nuclear armed nation is one that cannot be made to feel desperate'.

It also brings back a question that haunted NATO planners in the era of the 1950's to late 60's of 'massive retaliation', or rather it's credibility, the question being 'would any US President really risk Chicago for Hamburg? Washington for Bonn? Kansas for Brussels etc?' Massive Retaliation did not work when the other side could credibly hit back, which the US found was the case by the mid 60's, near to where China is now.

Despite in 1962, the US having a 17-1 advantage in nuclear weapons that could reach the USSR, from all platforms, the only advantage the USSR had was in IRBM's, hence the reckless attempt to even the balance by trying to put them and then make operational, some on Cuba. Which nearly worked, they got the tactical nukes (unknown to the US until afterwards), most of the IRBM's and some of their warheads, when they were detected, plus to guard against invasion and unknown to the US until after the Cold War, an entire Soviet Motor Rifle Division.

So is this the real reason for a change to China's nuclear policy? After all, none of the regimes the US has attacked were armed with nukes. For all the sanctions and threats to their difficult ally/neighbour the DPRK, including nearly going to war with it in 1994, the US failed to stop their bomb.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10993
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:22 pm

How would an invasion of Taiwan affect China's economic standing in the world?
Look at the world today, folks wearing mask, lock downs, trillions of dollars damage done to the world economy, hundreds of thousands dead, numerous nations driven into greater poverty for the next 10 to 20 years or forever, all for something not fully proven but most suspect China has not been truthful about the Covid-19 outbreak, and what is the world doing about it? Falling over itself to innoculate China from any involvement, even mentioning the word China is the same sentence with Covid is a no no and the world happily goes along.
Based on the current world situation, now is a good time to invade and over the next few years it will only get better, the issue is not whether the world will respond to China, we already know the answer to that, the issue is how much longer Taiwan and its people have delusions that someone will come to their aid if China does anything whether economic or military. China has already waged a vaccine war against Taiwan, in times past the holier than thou Western Democracies would raise living hell over such a blatant abuse of humans, bring charges at world bodies as done for dictators, diplomatic notes, withdrawn officials, held marches to protest, etc etc etc, but.......the virus rages in Taiwan and they continue to struggle to import vaccines and raw materials due to China intervention.
Taiwan needs to do a Hong Kong and be done with it, is there anyone who really thinks HK still has some independence, all the recent demonstrations and western indignation has accomplished what exactly?
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14691
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:24 pm

par13del wrote:
How would an invasion of Taiwan affect China's economic standing in the world?


it would give them absolute dominance in economic terms that can´t be overcome in less than a decade.

best regards
Thomas

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Aaron747, Bing [Bot], bpatus297, Dutchy, FGITD, petertenthije and 31 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos