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par13del
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:53 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
How would an invasion of Taiwan affect China's economic standing in the world?


it would give them absolute dominance in economic terms that can´t be overcome in less than a decade.

best regards
Thomas

...and your thought process is that they do not have that now?
Some are suggesting that China would not invade because it would hurt their economy, my opinion it would not as no one will cease trading with them, just talk.
Trump tried to curtail and the world called Trump an idiot, China had a outbreak at a major port and rather than remove thousands of workers - which they can do but the west cannot - they allowed the port to run at minimal levels and the world cried, now we can speculate whether that was intentional or not, but we cannot argue that everyone saw the effect on world trade.
 
tommy1808
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:58 pm

par13del wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
How would an invasion of Taiwan affect China's economic standing in the world?


it would give them absolute dominance in economic terms that can´t be overcome in less than a decade.

best regards
Thomas

...and your thought process is that they do not have that now?


Yes, they don´t. Their economy is highly dependent on imports, just look what happened to Huawei essentially over night with a halfhearted technology embargo.

There is pretty much nothing you can´t make if you exclude components from the PRC, try excluding PRC and ROC and it becomes exponentially more difficult as single source suppliers to a ton of components are on Taiwan.

best regards
Thomas
 
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par13del
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:03 pm

What Huawei fallout, other than the UK and the USA, everyone else is moving full steam ahead or just delayed the decision until Trump left office.
On the other hand, look at what China is doing to Australia via trade over critical comments, the scales are not balanced.
 
tommy1808
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:13 pm

par13del wrote:
What Huawei fallout.


Declining market share, having to sell of their Honor brand, a brand new top model without 5G? Is the Huawei P50 even released and available anywhere?

In Q1 they had a whooping 4% market share... it was 5x times that just a year ago.

https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/06/11/h ... e-q1-2021/
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... -Shipments

best regards
Thomas
 
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par13del
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:24 pm

The political landscape has changed, let's see the results by end year and early next...links like below abound. Economic penalties will not prevent China from making any moves against Taiwan, if the world is not upset over vaccine trade wars, what will they get upset over?
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56768663
 
ewt340
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:41 pm

par13del wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
How would an invasion of Taiwan affect China's economic standing in the world?


it would give them absolute dominance in economic terms that can´t be overcome in less than a decade.

best regards
Thomas

...and your thought process is that they do not have that now?
Some are suggesting that China would not invade because it would hurt their economy, my opinion it would not as no one will cease trading with them, just talk.
Trump tried to curtail and the world called Trump an idiot, China had a outbreak at a major port and rather than remove thousands of workers - which they can do but the west cannot - they allowed the port to run at minimal levels and the world cried, now we can speculate whether that was intentional or not, but we cannot argue that everyone saw the effect on world trade.


Mostly because many products are being manufactured in poorer countries with lower wages like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, India, or some African and Latin American countries.
Usually industries like garments or cheap goods have moved out of china for the least decade or so. You could easily see this when you go to your local Zara, H&M or Uniqlo stores. Many of the products have made in Bangladesh, Vietnam or India label on it. Not all, but many are, which is quite rare in the past.

Vehicles and Appliances also have a more robust manufacturing diversification compared to other goods. They tend to manufacture the products near the largest market. Many japanese car companies manufacture their cars in Indonesia. LG or Samsung manufacture their appliance in Malaysia and Thailand for many of the Asian market. They didn't manufacture their products in China for the whole world.
 
johns624
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:52 pm

par13del wrote:
What Huawei fallout, other than the UK and the USA, everyone else is moving full steam ahead or just delayed the decision until Trump left office.
On the other hand, look at what China is doing to Australia via trade over critical comments, the scales are not balanced.
That says more about those other countries and their spineless pols. If Australia can stand up to China, why can't other, bigger Western countries?
 
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par13del
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:27 pm

johns624 wrote:
par13del wrote:
What Huawei fallout, other than the UK and the USA, everyone else is moving full steam ahead or just delayed the decision until Trump left office.
On the other hand, look at what China is doing to Australia via trade over critical comments, the scales are not balanced.
That says more about those other countries and their spineless pols. If Australia can stand up to China, why can't other, bigger Western countries?

...because they do not want to offend China and lose trade, ethics and principles have a price which most nations are not willing to pay.
Honesty, that is all we need these nations to have, state that they cannot afford to offend China versus coming up with convoluted stories.
 
johns624
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:36 pm

Yeah, they not only don't want to offend China but they won't even truthfully say why they don't want to offend China.
 
victrola
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:40 pm

China launching an invasion of Taiwan in this day and age would be a wild roll of the dice. First of all, it would take some time for China to do the massive preparations necessary to launch such an invasion. Given modern surveillance technologies, this would be impossible to hide from the world. So this could never be a surprise attack. Secondly, transporting hundreds of thousands of soldiers and equipment across 100 miles of open water where your enemy knows where you are poses enormous problems. Then Taiwan's rugged and heavily defended east coast would be a formidable obstacle to landings. Then there all kinds of new weapons and electronic measures that may affect the situation. There are so many variables and unprecedented circumstances that come into play here, that anything could happen. Nothing similar on this scale has been attempted since 1944. The Chinese could possibly overwhelm Taiwan, or things could go terribly wrong for the Chinese invasion force. Remember, each time there is a new war, there are always surprises and previously held assumptions about military strategy are proven to be obsolete. Anyone who thinks they could predict the outcome of such an undertaking is delusional.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:44 pm

johns624 wrote:
par13del wrote:
What Huawei fallout, other than the UK and the USA, everyone else is moving full steam ahead or just delayed the decision until Trump left office.
On the other hand, look at what China is doing to Australia via trade over critical comments, the scales are not balanced.
That says more about those other countries and their spineless pols. If Australia can stand up to China, why can't other, bigger Western countries?


Because to the class of people that sits on BODs, $$ trumps any values.
 
johns624
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:49 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
par13del wrote:
What Huawei fallout, other than the UK and the USA, everyone else is moving full steam ahead or just delayed the decision until Trump left office.
On the other hand, look at what China is doing to Australia via trade over critical comments, the scales are not balanced.
That says more about those other countries and their spineless pols. If Australia can stand up to China, why can't other, bigger Western countries?


Because to the class of people that sits on BODs, $$ trumps any values.
We know how it really works, but politicians should worry less about corporate profits.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:52 pm

johns624 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
That says more about those other countries and their spineless pols. If Australia can stand up to China, why can't other, bigger Western countries?


Because to the class of people that sits on BODs, $$ trumps any values.
We know how it really works, but politicians should worry less about corporate profits.


Citizens United and virtually unlimited contributions to PACs make that impossible. GM, Ford, Caterpillar, Boeing etc. all depend heavily on China. When they call DC someone’ll always take the call.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:55 pm

johns624 wrote:
Yeah, they not only don't want to offend China but they won't even truthfully say why they don't want to offend China.


Well, between those spineless politicians and worthless greedy Wall Street idiots, and they wonder why USA is losing...

As far as Taiwan goes - it is easier to just meddle in its politics and help those worthless pro-mainland politicians from KMT to get back in power. Things like blocking vaccine imports is part of that equation (i.e. there will always be those stupid old farts who think Taiwan DPP govt is incompetent just bc of that...).

par13del wrote:
Taiwan needs to do a Hong Kong and be done with it, is there anyone who really thinks HK still has some independence, all the recent demonstrations and western indignation has accomplished what exactly?


As far as HK goes - look at western countries and their actions. About the only thing that happened was a few countries (especially UK) made it easier for people to leave HK and resettle.

But otherwise, in typical spineless faction, UK doesn't even pull their judges from the HK court system. US banks continues to just expand in HK just bc of "All those RMB to be earn", etc.

The truth is that it should be time to starve the beast, and start moving manufacturing capability and investment back to western countries. But nope, all talks, no actions, and that includes Trump whose trade war is total crap (should have go a lot further IMHO).
 
johns624
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:06 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Because to the class of people that sits on BODs, $$ trumps any values.
We know how it really works, but politicians should worry less about corporate profits.


Citizens United and virtually unlimited contributions to PACs make that impossible. GM, Ford, Caterpillar, Boeing etc. all depend heavily on China. When they call DC someone’ll always take the call.
Is it the same in the EU countries?

PS--I like how some here totally disregard any thoughts on what the Taiwanese Chinese think or want. They keep saying "let the PRC take it over" or "the US shouldn't get involved" without considering that the Taiwanese may fight because they want to remain independent. It reminds me of the French and British negotiating the partition of Czechoslovakia before WW2 without asking the Czechs what they wanted. It's for the same reason, too. They don't want to offend the big bully.
 
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Tugger
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:11 pm

If China "takes" Taiwan, their trade with the world tanks. And they cannot afford that. Taiwan is a linchpin for them as well, they don't want to pull it. They will if they feel they have to, their too prideful to not, but if/when they do it spells the beginning of the end of their current "golden age". Everyone will be willing to test them and best them. New factories and resources will flow to other nations and, even if higher cost, production will shift away. China is an export dependent nation. And they do also depend on imports of many resources as well. That will all be at risk.

And they know that.

And "taking Taiwan" is a bigger military task than many here seem to make it out to be. So it would affect them militarily and economically. They could hold on for many years after probably, a decade or so, but then after that they would have severe internal issues from the economic losses and failures, and military needs and costs which would end the current Communist regime. Taiwan is a problem for them as much as China is a problem for Taiwan.

Tugg
 
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Aaron747
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:28 pm

johns624 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
We know how it really works, but politicians should worry less about corporate profits.


Citizens United and virtually unlimited contributions to PACs make that impossible. GM, Ford, Caterpillar, Boeing etc. all depend heavily on China. When they call DC someone’ll always take the call.
Is it the same in the EU countries?

PS--I like how some here totally disregard any thoughts on what the Taiwanese Chinese think or want. They keep saying "let the PRC take it over" or "the US shouldn't get involved" without considering that the Taiwanese may fight because they want to remain independent. It reminds me of the French and British negotiating the partition of Czechoslovakia before WW2 without asking the Czechs what they wanted. It's for the same reason, too. They don't want to offend the big bully.


I would imagine corporate priorities figure heavily in the case of France and Germany.
 
tommy1808
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:38 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Citizens United and virtually unlimited contributions to PACs make that impossible. GM, Ford, Caterpillar, Boeing etc. all depend heavily on China. When they call DC someone’ll always take the call.
Is it the same in the EU countries?

PS--I like how some here totally disregard any thoughts on what the Taiwanese Chinese think or want. They keep saying "let the PRC take it over" or "the US shouldn't get involved" without considering that the Taiwanese may fight because they want to remain independent. It reminds me of the French and British negotiating the partition of Czechoslovakia before WW2 without asking the Czechs what they wanted. It's for the same reason, too. They don't want to offend the big bully.


I would imagine corporate priorities figure heavily in the case of France and Germany.


France made the "Loi de vigilance" and Germany just got itself the "Lieferkettengesetz". We will see what courts will make of it ultimately, but there are a couple of legal experts that say it may essentially ban German companies to produce in or buy from Xinjiang based suppliers. And that would even hit big Tickets like VW or Siemens.
So it's not all hugs and puppies.

https://www.prewave.com/blog/what-is-th ... tengesetz/

Best regards
Thomas
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:48 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

They enable that regime and prefer disaster there to their own - classic realpolitik. And we have all seen what happens to people in PRC who are the wrong religion. The nature of the beast.


I'm certain that people would describe the Holodomor or the application of Lebensraum as "classic realpolitik."

Of course, as you note the nature of the beast.


Nobody would because realpolitik refers to looking after national interest in foreign affairs. Your two examples are domestic policies executed via totalitarianism/fascism.


I'm sure it would be shock to all sorts of people that their nations, once subjugated were purely domestic matters.
 
CH47A
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Sep 02, 2021 2:38 am

tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
How would an invasion of Taiwan affect China's economic standing in the world?


it would give them absolute dominance in economic terms that can´t be overcome in less than a decade.

best regards
Thomas


If your cities are flattened by nukes and your infrastructure is destroyed, how in the heck are you going to be an economic powerhouse?

Actually, how could anyone be an economic powerhouse. The planet would take many decades to kind of recover.

Or are you folks of the opinion that nobody will do anything except hang out the welcome sign for the military of the PRC?

No wait, you're right. We'd need to float a few big welcome signs on the waters between the mainland and the island. We'd want them to see them. Want them to know how welcome they are. Use some balloons to float some nice, pretty signs/banners over the water, also. Need some more up over the coastline areas of the west side of the island.

Yep --- happy, happy times. Now we get back to making love and making money. No sweat.
 
victrola
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:58 am

If it comes to a clash between China and the US in Asia, as the years pass, the odds increasingly favor China. When it comes down to it the US will not risk nuclear war to defend Taiwan. Taiwan has to realize that when the chips are down, it will be on its own. However, there is a lot that Taiwan can do to make any attempted invasion a nightmare for anyone foolish enough to attempt it. They should concentrate on making sure that the Chinese pay an unacceptable price for their conquest of Taiwan.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Sep 02, 2021 4:09 am

victrola wrote:
If it comes to a clash between China and the US in Asia, as the years pass, the odds increasingly favor China. When it comes down to it the US will not risk nuclear war to defend Taiwan. Taiwan has to realize that when the chips are down, it will be on its own. However, there is a lot that Taiwan can do to make any attempted invasion a nightmare for anyone foolish enough to attempt it. They should concentrate on making sure that the Chinese pay an unacceptable price for their conquest of Taiwan.


Taiwan can do that right now by rigging every TSMC facility for demolition. Try that on for size PRC!
 
tommy1808
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:29 am

CH47A wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
How would an invasion of Taiwan affect China's economic standing in the world?


it would give them absolute dominance in economic terms that can´t be overcome in less than a decade.

best regards
Thomas


If your cities are flattened by nukes and your infrastructure is destroyed, how in the heck are you going to be an economic powerhouse?.


that would be if Taiwan is taken intakt and the world kowtowing to Beijing, doing nothing of course.

I already stated up thread that i don´t believe that is going to happen and that a few well placed Thermite charges in Taiwan would throw the world into an economic crisis that makes the GFC and Oil crisis combined look like a picknick.

best regards
Thomas
 
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Tugger
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Sep 02, 2021 4:25 pm

'Tolerate" is likely not an accurate word for use with the Chinese Communist Party. It looks like they seek to continue to clamp down and fail harder:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/02/china-c ... youth.html

Xi and his cult of personality minions will bring down China if they are not stopped.

Tugg
 
johns624
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:33 pm

victrola wrote:
If it comes to a clash between China and the US in Asia, as the years pass, the odds increasingly favor China. When it comes down to it the US will not risk nuclear war to defend Taiwan. Taiwan has to realize that when the chips are down, it will be on its own. However, there is a lot that Taiwan can do to make any attempted invasion a nightmare for anyone foolish enough to attempt it. They should concentrate on making sure that the Chinese pay an unacceptable price for their conquest of Taiwan.
A few points. Why do you assume that it has to go nuclear? Why do you assume that it will only be the US vs PRC? First, Taiwan could put up a good fight all by itself. Second, who knows if they have nukes. If the US gets involved, so will Japan, Australia and probably India. Even with a much larger military, China can't use it all against Taiwan. They have to keep forces stationed elsewhere to keep India, Russia and Vietnam honest. Why would the PRC want to use nukes to flatten Taiwan? That would defeat the purpose of bringing it into the fold.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Sep 02, 2021 10:28 pm

Nope - remember the frog in the pot. Continue weakening the west thru trade and disinformation, use cyber warfare, a few more bouts of COVID, and keep everyone guessing by building up the military. Make'em think you might just be crazy enough.

Their best weapon wont be nuclear - it will be the replacement of the US dollar as the reserve currency when we finally go broke
 
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Tugger
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Sep 02, 2021 10:36 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Their best weapon wont be nuclear - it will be the replacement of the US dollar as the reserve currency when we finally go broke

No one will make the Renminbi a reserve currency with how they are forcing things in their economy. At worst/best any new one would be a cybercoin "basket" currency.

Tugg
 
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c933103
Topic Author
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Sep 02, 2021 10:39 pm

Tugger wrote:
'Tolerate" is likely not an accurate word for use with the Chinese Communist Party. It looks like they seek to continue to clamp down and fail harder:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/02/china-c ... youth.html

Xi and his cult of personality minions will bring down China if they are not stopped.

Tugg

I tried to use a more accurate thread title, but forum moderator stepped in and changed it, as indicated on the opening post's fine print
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:36 am

Tugger wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
Their best weapon wont be nuclear - it will be the replacement of the US dollar as the reserve currency when we finally go broke

No one will make the Renminbi a reserve currency with how they are forcing things in their economy. At worst/best any new one would be a cybercoin "basket" currency.

Tugg


Regardless If people ever lose faith in a currency it is doomed. Sooner or later the US Deficit will reach that point.

And when we can't keep printing it, yikes.
 
tommy1808
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Sep 03, 2021 2:22 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
And when we can't keep printing it, yikes.


You can print as much money as you like as long as you can deliver products for it. Printing too much money used to run into supply problems quite quickly, that isn't exactly true anymore.

Best regards
Thomas
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 988
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Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Sep 03, 2021 3:42 pm

Famous last words in economics - "It's different this time".

America is running huge trade deficits mainly because our companies have offshored the production of just about everthing. Boeing our biggest exporter is not helping things either.
Countries (China and Japan) hold US debt not to buy US goods but because it's considered safe. What happens when someone makes our currency unsafe and offers a better alternative?

Right now it's in China's interest to keep the dollar strong so that they continue to erode US manufacturing. An earlier post mentioned cyber currency taking over. What country just kicked out bitcoin miners? China. They claimed its for environmental reasons but maybe they don't want the Renminbi being sent out and held by someone outside of PRC. So when they make a move we draw the line on , somehow, someone just hacked away all the cyber currency in the world. Their programmers are that good.

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