Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5539
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:26 am

https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/b ... ws/3470466
According to the professor, who's popularly known as Xi Jin Ping's strategist, he claim that the war with Taiwan would not breakout immediately in the year 2021 as China is still in the phase of "tolerance", trying to "win over the heart of Taiwanese people and understanding from international community", but he warned that "if China's tolerance didn't get positive feedback then the danger will be bigger and bigger in the nect few years" as Chinese military "will be more well prepared".
He also think that the frequently signalling and indication of "red line" on China's stance on the topic of Taiwan is "useful" since it have triggered concern from the US and caused the US to send reconn aircraft into Pacific
----
According to my understanding, it seems to indicate China is warning that war is on the way if Taiwan and the West didn't embrace China in the next few years?
Last edited by SQ22 on Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 14971
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:29 am

That is ultimately the endgame if they don't get their way, though it was a very confusing signal toward openness when the charter flights were ended a few years ago. This is precisely the reason the US maintains a large force presence in Okinawa - has nothing to do with DPRK. The bigger challenge for PRC is what if they *do* win a war with Taiwan? With 15% of the population supporting unification (or less), that makes it very difficult for them to leverage their economic prowess later. I should think they are concerned about that.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19927
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:40 pm

Of course, it’s all the democrats fault. :lol:

Let’s conveniently ignore that the previous president was so tough he became best buddies with NK and let them continue with their nuclear program and missile testing.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14399
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:21 pm

Aaron747 : are you a soldier, would you give your life to defend Taiwan ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 14971
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:38 pm

Aesma wrote:
Aaron747 : are you a soldier, would you give your life to defend Taiwan ?


Too old to serve. Your question is a difficult one for Americans because we have many obligations to defend Taiwan - it stands to reason it is one of the few territories in the world where Congress would have broad support for voting to act. On the other hand, the civilian American appetite for sustaining any excursions abroad is quite exhausted. This Australian professor of strategic studies explains better than I can:

To many people it seems self-evident that America would honour the commitments enshrined in the Taiwan Relations Act. But the TRA was passed in 1979, when China's GDP was 1/20th the size of America's, its place in the global economy was miniscule, its navy and air force were negligible, and its prospects for progress depended completely on America's goodwill.

So back then a US-China conflict carried much bigger economic and military risks for China than for America. That made the TRA's commitments both highly credible and very unlikely to be tested. Washington could safely assume that Beijing would back off to avoid a conflict in which China had so much more to lose than America.

Things are different today.


https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-inter ... end-taiwan
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10819
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:42 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
That is ultimately the endgame if they don't get their way, though it was a very confusing signal toward openness when the charter flights were ended a few years ago. This is precisely the reason the US maintains a large force presence in Okinawa - has nothing to do with DPRK. The bigger challenge for PRC is what if they *do* win a war with Taiwan? With 15% of the population supporting unification (or less), that makes it very difficult for them to leverage their economic prowess later. I should think they are concerned about that.

Simply relocate the population to the mainland and the issue is resolved.
If they win a war the same ships that survived the crossing can be used to remove the population while the physical structures in the province are bought up to the standards of the mainland, this of course cannot be done while the population is in place.
Honestly, do we expect anything else, the rest of the world needs China made produce, they will not start WWIII, so political language like the above will be trotted out to appease those who have concerns. Besides, its not as if they have not moved out certain folks already and trade has continued unabated.
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5539
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:42 pm

scbriml wrote:
Of course, it’s all the democrats fault. :lol:

Let’s conveniently ignore that the previous president was so tough he became best buddies with NK and let them continue with their nuclear program and missile testing.

On the topic of North Korea, the previous administration did the correct decision at the end to not pursue peace agreement with North Korea under request by South Korea government amid the nuclear weapon issue remain unresolved.
Yes they have wasted a lot of time to talk with North Korea on the issue, but at least they can still stand on the line and not give North Korea any agreement of such kind without full denuclearization that the North Korea have hoped to happen.
According to my understanding, the current US administration will also adopt same policy against North Korea, and this is like other US administration in the past.

As for the topic of China, the main problem with the last US administration in their dealing with the United States is that they consider trade to be the biggest issue between the two countries and decided to pursue a tentative trade deal.
It was only after signing the first phase of trade deal that the US president at the time recognized there are more important aspects that need to be considered in term of US's relationship with China.
But he have no political power nor time to do much after he realized that, I think around middle of the last year, from my observation on the way he speak about China.
Let's see how the current US administration will action on China with the current political situation being as it is.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 14971
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:57 pm

par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
That is ultimately the endgame if they don't get their way, though it was a very confusing signal toward openness when the charter flights were ended a few years ago. This is precisely the reason the US maintains a large force presence in Okinawa - has nothing to do with DPRK. The bigger challenge for PRC is what if they *do* win a war with Taiwan? With 15% of the population supporting unification (or less), that makes it very difficult for them to leverage their economic prowess later. I should think they are concerned about that.

Simply relocate the population to the mainland and the issue is resolved.
If they win a war the same ships that survived the crossing can be used to remove the population while the physical structures in the province are bought up to the standards of the mainland, this of course cannot be done while the population is in place.
Honestly, do we expect anything else, the rest of the world needs China made produce, they will not start WWIII, so political language like the above will be trotted out to appease those who have concerns. Besides, its not as if they have not moved out certain folks already and trade has continued unabated.


Um, most modern structures in Taiwan are likely better than those in the PRC.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10819
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:11 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
That is ultimately the endgame if they don't get their way, though it was a very confusing signal toward openness when the charter flights were ended a few years ago. This is precisely the reason the US maintains a large force presence in Okinawa - has nothing to do with DPRK. The bigger challenge for PRC is what if they *do* win a war with Taiwan? With 15% of the population supporting unification (or less), that makes it very difficult for them to leverage their economic prowess later. I should think they are concerned about that.

Simply relocate the population to the mainland and the issue is resolved.
If they win a war the same ships that survived the crossing can be used to remove the population while the physical structures in the province are bought up to the standards of the mainland, this of course cannot be done while the population is in place.
Honestly, do we expect anything else, the rest of the world needs China made produce, they will not start WWIII, so political language like the above will be trotted out to appease those who have concerns. Besides, its not as if they have not moved out certain folks already and trade has continued unabated.


Um, most modern structures in Taiwan are likely better than those in the PRC.

Ahh politically, no, to the winner goes the spoils and the winner also writes the history. The rest of the world will accept, if they don't, either WWIII or cease trade with China, which one do you think is most likely?
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 14971
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:12 pm

par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Simply relocate the population to the mainland and the issue is resolved.
If they win a war the same ships that survived the crossing can be used to remove the population while the physical structures in the province are bought up to the standards of the mainland, this of course cannot be done while the population is in place.
Honestly, do we expect anything else, the rest of the world needs China made produce, they will not start WWIII, so political language like the above will be trotted out to appease those who have concerns. Besides, its not as if they have not moved out certain folks already and trade has continued unabated.


Um, most modern structures in Taiwan are likely better than those in the PRC.

Ahh politically, no, to the winner goes the spoils and the winner also writes the history. The rest of the world will accept, if they don't, either WWIII or cease trade with China, which one do you think is most likely?


I have no idea what you’re on about. I was referring to the ‘physical structures’ you mentioned.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
dfwjim1
Posts: 2561
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:46 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sat Mar 27, 2021 7:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
Of course, it’s all the democrats fault. :lol:

Let’s conveniently ignore that the previous president was so tough he became best buddies with NK and let them continue with their nuclear program and missile testing.


Just like the four presidents before him.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14563
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Sat Mar 27, 2021 7:36 pm

par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Simply relocate the population to the mainland and the issue is resolved.
If they win a war the same ships that survived the crossing can be used to remove the population while the physical structures in the province are bought up to the standards of the mainland, this of course cannot be done while the population is in place.
Honestly, do we expect anything else, the rest of the world needs China made produce, they will not start WWIII, so political language like the above will be trotted out to appease those who have concerns. Besides, its not as if they have not moved out certain folks already and trade has continued unabated.


Um, most modern structures in Taiwan are likely better than those in the PRC.

Ahh politically, no, to the winner goes the spoils and the winner also writes the history. The rest of the world will accept, if they don't, either WWIII or cease trade with China, which one do you think is most likely?


There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1086
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:22 pm

I don't think the US is willing to go to total war with China over this. Both parties have been calculating this for decades. If China makes a strong stab, they can have Taiwan.

The worst thing about Taiwan's de facto independence, in China's eyes, is that it shows the viability of full democracy, freedoms and rule of law, as practiced by full Chinese people. This means the core justification for the CCP is a lie. Taiwan's civility has always been a humiliation for Beijing. The Chinese Communist Party is by contrast a criminal, militaristic dictatorship that has a racial superiority ideology.
 
rubberdogdo
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:58 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:13 am

My friend who is fairly high up in the CCP told me this once.
“ ... you will know China is ready to be a World Power when they do two things - invade Taiwan , and take revenge on Japan for its conduct during WW2. “
Specifically regarding Japan , he made the statement ,” ... they raped our great grandmothers ... “ Yes no shortage of hate and both Japan and Taiwan will soon feel the full force of a confident and resurgent China.
 
rubberdogdo
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:58 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:18 am

Think ahead to a World totally enthralled to a resurgent China that defeats Taiwan in a month or two , and Japan which capitulates a lot sooner. An aging population and inexperienced warriors will doom Japan. The real fight will be Taiwan.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 14971
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:25 am

I call total BS. Trade between China and Japan is over $300B annually. Nobody throws away that kind of money over 80 year old history.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14436
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:16 am

The best move the US has to protect Taiwan is to actually to put US forces back, they were there before, in Taiwan. A force of say 10,000 - 15,000.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
rubberdogdo
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:58 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:17 am

Then you don’t understand the Chinese , so typical of us Gwilo. They produce propagandized pop music in China that all the youth listen to’- and its deliberately and purposefully anti Japanese. The one child policy has as consequence produced more than 100 million extra males due to infanticide. Mao thought nothing of killing 50 million. I call BS to your assessment.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14399
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:20 am

If China starts the two wars you mention it won't be a world power it will be a world pariah.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 14971
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:23 am

rubberdogdo wrote:
Then you don’t understand the Chinese , so typical of us Gwilo. They produce propagandized pop music in China that all the youth listen to’- and its deliberately and purposefully anti Japanese. The one child policy has as consequence produced more than 100 million extra males due to infanticide. Mao thought nothing of killing 50 million. I call BS to your assessment.


You don’t understand macroeconomics either. 1 million Chinese visited Japan in 2007, the number of tourists had exploded to nearly 10 million in 2019. Young Chinese people with money love visiting Japan and copying its pop culture. Money talks - always has.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
CometII
Posts: 364
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 1999 6:02 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:58 am

As a matter of intellectual brain storming, let's say China does try to take Taiwan by some type of "force".

As a matter of international law or convention, would that not be tantamount to the PRC acknowledging that their Civil War with the Kuomintang is not over? And as a direct result of that, then any government or organization on this planet can be now absolved of any agreements concluded with the PRC at any time after 1949 if they so wish without being seen as a unilateral breach. And that they may even have the right to reassess "who" is the legitimate government of China? As a result of that, any foreign involvement in the fighting towards one side or another would just be the typical interference you see in all Civil Wars in history, and not an attack on a sovereign nation (PRC), because they would forfeit that status by reengaging.

This is not throwing support either way for one side or the other, but just a geopolitical brainstorming question. IT would be the same question in the unlikely scenario that the Taipei government launched an attack to retake the mainland.
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:08 am

c933103 wrote:
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/3470466
According to the professor, who's popularly known as Xi Jin Ping's strategist, he claim that the war with Taiwan would not breakout immediately in the year 2021 as China is still in the phase of "tolerance", trying to "win over the heart of Taiwanese people and understanding from international community", but he warned that "if China's tolerance didn't get positive feedback then the danger will be bigger and bigger in the nect few years" as Chinese military "will be more well prepared".
He also think that the frequently signalling and indication of "red line" on China's stance on the topic of Taiwan is "useful" since it have triggered concern from the US and caused the US to send reconn aircraft into Pacific
----
According to my understanding, it seems to indicate China is warning that war is on the way if Taiwan and the West didn't embrace China in the next few years?


In a few years, China might try for a blockade of Taiwan. I don't think I'd want to spend any US soldier's blood in such a conflict.
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14563
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:59 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/3470466
According to the professor, who's popularly known as Xi Jin Ping's strategist, he claim that the war with Taiwan would not breakout immediately in the year 2021 as China is still in the phase of "tolerance", trying to "win over the heart of Taiwanese people and understanding from international community", but he warned that "if China's tolerance didn't get positive feedback then the danger will be bigger and bigger in the nect few years" as Chinese military "will be more well prepared".
He also think that the frequently signalling and indication of "red line" on China's stance on the topic of Taiwan is "useful" since it have triggered concern from the US and caused the US to send reconn aircraft into Pacific
----
According to my understanding, it seems to indicate China is warning that war is on the way if Taiwan and the West didn't embrace China in the next few years?


In a few years, China might try for a blockade of Taiwan. I don't think I'd want to spend any US soldier's blood in such a conflict.


You do understand that there is almost nothing with a Microprocessor build on this planet that doesn't involve crucial parts from Taiwan? No cars, no aircraft, no household appliances.....
A blockade would shut down the global economy, a successful invasion would hand the PRC an off switch for US might.
It would be an endgame level move.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
rubberdogdo
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:58 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:40 am

China is rapidly building capacity for the production of semiconductors to the latest standards , in competition with Taiwan and the US. You’re right , but the day will come when they don’t need Taiwan high tech.
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5539
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:28 am

rubberdogdo wrote:
China is rapidly building capacity for the production of semiconductors to the latest standards , in competition with Taiwan and the US. You’re right , but the day will come when they don’t need Taiwan high tech.

SMIC explained publicly they'll take ten more years to reaxh 7nm
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14563
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:56 am

c933103 wrote:
rubberdogdo wrote:
China is rapidly building capacity for the production of semiconductors to the latest standards , in competition with Taiwan and the US. You’re right , but the day will come when they don’t need Taiwan high tech.

SMIC explained publicly they'll take ten more years to reaxh 7nm


:checkmark:
And by that time even Intel will have gotten way beyond 7nm.

And even if it was true, that would be more reason to react, not less.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Cerecl
Posts: 630
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:42 pm

c933103 wrote:
According to my understanding, it seems to indicate China is warning that war is on the way if Taiwan and the West didn't embrace China in the next few years?


The title is slightly misleading. A more accurate translation would be "China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage".

I have not read the entire interview by this professor but it is important to note that the Liberal Times is a publication with a "deep green" or anti-China tendency. The selected quotes may or may not reflect the true context in which the interview occurred or the entire message the professor tried to deliver. Having said that, the way I read whatever was quoted, he actually repeatedly downplayed the possibility of a military conflict over the Taiwan Strait.

The "redline" mentioned by OP has always been either formal declaration of independence, or permanent station of substantial troops by a foreign power in Taiwan. All the stakeholders know this clearly and as long as this line is not crossed there would be no war.
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
Sokes
Posts: 2775
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is now "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:43 am

rubberdogdo wrote:
The one child policy has as consequence produced more than 100 million extra males due to infanticide. Mao thought nothing of killing 50 million.

India also has female infanticide. Whom do you think is India going to attack?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 433
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:03 pm

I've seen the last few days The Phillipines has finally grown a bit of a backbone and is pusing back against some of the goings on in the South China sea.. How many adversaries do they want at once? There is a massive amount of US and European money invested in companies in Taiwan and also people - lots of immigrants from both countries. If China did finally decide to do something, I don't see how either parties could sit back and do nothing.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3370
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:30 pm

And then there’s this:
https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lo ... 03936.html

The time is soon approaching where the West cannot lean on US hegemony alone. The US and Europe absolutely must align with respect to trade, military and foreign policy on China. It’s the only power bloc that together could blunt China‘s ambitions.
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13492
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:41 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Um, most modern structures in Taiwan are likely better than those in the PRC.

Ahh politically, no, to the winner goes the spoils and the winner also writes the history. The rest of the world will accept, if they don't, either WWIII or cease trade with China, which one do you think is most likely?


There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas


You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14563
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:49 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Ahh politically, no, to the winner goes the spoils and the winner also writes the history. The rest of the world will accept, if they don't, either WWIII or cease trade with China, which one do you think is most likely?


There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas


You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese,


Fun fact: Taiwan never was. The only time Taiwan had the same government the Mainland has was when China wasn't governed by Chinese.

I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.


Well, if you rather have total economic collapse flowed by absolutely CCP dominance, enjoy it.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3370
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:53 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Ahh politically, no, to the winner goes the spoils and the winner also writes the history. The rest of the world will accept, if they don't, either WWIII or cease trade with China, which one do you think is most likely?


There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas


You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.

It’s only the Sudetenland, it’s only Poland...
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13492
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:54 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas


You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese,


Fun fact: Taiwan never was. The only time Taiwan had the same government the Mainland has was when China wasn't governed by Chinese.

I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.


Well, if you rather have total economic collapse flowed by absolutely CCP dominance, enjoy it.

Best regards
Thomas


Really?

“The island was annexed in 1683 by the Qing dynasty of China, and ceded to the Empire of Japan in 1895. The Republic of China, which had overthrown the Qing in 1911, took control of Taiwan on behalf of the World War II Allies following the surrender of Japan in 1945.”

Total economic collapse wouldn’t be in China’s best interests either.
Last edited by Kiwirob on Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14563
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:55 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas


You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.

It’s only the Sudetenland, it’s only Poland...


Funny how appeasement still has fans after never working in all of history....

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13492
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:57 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

There will be no spoils, we will have the biggest economic crisis ever. A few hand granates in the right places in Taiwan would grind the world economy to a complete stop.
Making clear a military attempt will mean WWIII is the absolute best course of action.

Best regards
Thomas


You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.

It’s only the Sudetenland, it’s only Poland...


You can blame WW1 for that.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14563
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:01 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:

You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese,


Fun fact: Taiwan never was. The only time Taiwan had the same government the Mainland has was when China wasn't governed by Chinese.

I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.


Well, if you rather have total economic collapse flowed by absolutely CCP dominance, enjoy it.

Best regards
Thomas


Really?

“The island was annexed in 1683 by the Qing dynasty of China


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jurchen_people

They occupied China...

The Republic of China, which had overthrown the Qing in 1911, took control of Taiwan on behalf of the World War II Allies following the surrender of Japan in 1945.


And the Republic of China is still there.

Total economic collapse wouldn’t be in China’s best interests either.


In the long run it absolutely would. Almost bloodless victory over the rest of the world.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3370
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:20 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Total economic collapse wouldn’t be in China’s best interests either.

Sure it would. As long as it results in them coming out on top in the end, they wouldn’t care. They’ve already learned that they can put their population through the wringer with no threat to the stability of the regime, they’d have no qualms about short-term economic damage if it meant a victorious and globally-dominant China was the result.

I don’t want war of course, we have a window on which their threat can be blunted without war, but that window won’t exist forever.
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5539
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:32 am

Kiwirob wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:

You’re mad, WW3 would be worse, it’s only Taiwan, until recently it was Chinese, I don’t see the problem with China taking it back, it’s certainly not worth fighting WW3 over.

It’s only the Sudetenland, it’s only Poland...


You can blame WW1 for that.

WWII in East Asia is essentially East Asian version of WWI. Surely the international relation was frozen under the background of cold war, but now that cold war have ended those tensions have time to develop again
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3601
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:08 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
With 15% of the population supporting unification (or less), that makes it very difficult for them to leverage their economic prowess later. I should think they are concerned about that.


Umm...easy, send them to reeducation camp!

LCDFlight wrote:
I don't think the US is willing to go to total war with China over this. Both parties have been calculating this for decades. If China makes a strong stab, they can have Taiwan.


Ahh...so back to pre-WW2 isolationism?

Plus trust me, if you think those oil crisis in 1970s is not bad enough, a semiconductor crisis will basically stop the US economy for months.

flyguy89 wrote:
Sure it would. As long as it results in them coming out on top in the end, they wouldn’t care. They’ve already learned that they can put their population through the wringer with no threat to the stability of the regime, they’d have no qualms about short-term economic damage if it meant a victorious and globally-dominant China was the result.


This would be the only thing that would stop CCP from doing stupid things - they do have a population who is enjoying middle class life right now. As much as the CCP officials say "Chinese people can eat grass and survive", once that is put to real test many would not even survive, period.
 
User avatar
c933103
Topic Author
Posts: 5539
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:58 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Sure it would. As long as it results in them coming out on top in the end, they wouldn’t care. They’ve already learned that they can put their population through the wringer with no threat to the stability of the regime, they’d have no qualms about short-term economic damage if it meant a victorious and globally-dominant China was the result.


This would be the only thing that would stop CCP from doing stupid things - they do have a population who is enjoying middle class life right now. As much as the CCP officials say "Chinese people can eat grass and survive", once that is put to real test many would not even survive, period.

I don't think the survival of those people is their top concern
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3601
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:24 am

c933103 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Sure it would. As long as it results in them coming out on top in the end, they wouldn’t care. They’ve already learned that they can put their population through the wringer with no threat to the stability of the regime, they’d have no qualms about short-term economic damage if it meant a victorious and globally-dominant China was the result.


This would be the only thing that would stop CCP from doing stupid things - they do have a population who is enjoying middle class life right now. As much as the CCP officials say "Chinese people can eat grass and survive", once that is put to real test many would not even survive, period.

I don't think the survival of those people is their top concern


It is not, but knowing CCP, they want zero instability. Prolong any fights long enough, and mainland peeps are really going to have to eat grass!

Plus, we all know Chinese "patriot" are never all that patriotic. For all those angry idiots on Weibo how many would really fight for their country? If those Weibo idiots are not in a western country right now, that is...
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14563
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:20 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
a semiconductor crisis will basically stop the US economy for months.


make that years.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3601
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:14 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
a semiconductor crisis will basically stop the US economy for months.


make that years.

best regards
Thomas


And people are also underestimating the impact. It is not just consumer electronics (which alone is going to make your average joe mad), but also cars (already seeing an impact right now due to the virus shutdown last year), planes, and even to certain extent defense industry in US.

Even a few skirmishes would be bad enough. A full out occupation? There goes basically the whole IC supply chain.

tl;dr: Taiwan holds a huge strategic interest, period. Those that think "The west should just let China take over" are just bunch of idiots. After Taiwan then what? Senkaku Islands? Okinawa with its US forces? A simultaneous attack on Guam by North Korea?

You are correct, though - it will be years of economic impact, at least up until TSMC ramp up enough production capability in US. It will also be years of impact to mainland, yes, but it is the CCP and they don't care.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1437
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:03 pm

Some people are soo stupid these days, They don't even realized that Russia and China are allies.
Whatever benefiting one, would benefit the others. And I saw people praising Putin while hating on China. Like, hello!

Also, I don't think China would go after Taiwan. There is only 1 way they would do it, if the CCP starting to lose support in the mainland when they f'up the economy, then they would use the invasion to divert the attention and fixing their image.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3601
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:46 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Some people are soo stupid these days, They don't even realized that Russia and China are allies.
Whatever benefiting one, would benefit the others. And I saw people praising Putin while hating on China. Like, hello!

Also, I don't think China would go after Taiwan. There is only 1 way they would do it, if the CCP starting to lose support in the mainland when they f'up the economy, then they would use the invasion to divert the attention and fixing their image.


Those people are probably stuck in the 80s when China and Russia don't like each other. You know, those are the day when a certain country call USA propped up the modern day monster call CCP to counter Russia.

On your second point - I agree, for all the wolf warrior talk, CCP don't even dare to touch Taiwan outside of gesturing like flying warplanes into Taiwan identification zone. Places like Kinmen are literally a river width away from mainland and CCP doesn't even shoot a few artillery over like they did in 1970s/1980s. Of course, Taiwan can start damage the city of Xiamen, can CCP afford such bloodshed which could cause internal instability?
 
Sokes
Posts: 2775
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:55 am

That's why I like politicians who are interested in tits. They usually are less interested in maps.

Image
source: https://share.america.gov/president-tru ... sident-xi/
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sokes
Posts: 2775
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Chinese professor warn that China is noe "tolerating" Taiwan

Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:09 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Funny how appeasement still has fans after never working in all of history....

Best regards
Thomas

I think one can't generalize.

"As chancellor, he maintained West Germany's close alignment with the United States and focused on strengthening European integration in western Europe, while launching the new policy of Ostpolitik aimed at improving relations with Eastern Europe. Brandt was controversial on both the right wing, for his Ostpolitik, and on the left wing, for his support of American policies, including the Vietnam War, and right-wing authoritarian regimes. "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willy_Brandt

also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostpolitik

I believe with Krushchev the cold war should have ended. Russians still knew that it was Western arms deliveries that helped them to win WW2. With Stalin gone there was a chance. Unfortunately Kennedy humiliated Khrushchev and he had to step down. On the other side it was difficult to know that Khrushchev was a nice guy after all the killing he was responsible for.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
ewt340
Posts: 1437
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: China will continue to tolerate Taiwan (government), at this stage

Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:49 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Some people are soo stupid these days, They don't even realized that Russia and China are allies.
Whatever benefiting one, would benefit the others. And I saw people praising Putin while hating on China. Like, hello!

Also, I don't think China would go after Taiwan. There is only 1 way they would do it, if the CCP starting to lose support in the mainland when they f'up the economy, then they would use the invasion to divert the attention and fixing their image.


Those people are probably stuck in the 80s when China and Russia don't like each other. You know, those are the day when a certain country call USA propped up the modern day monster call CCP to counter Russia.

On your second point - I agree, for all the wolf warrior talk, CCP don't even dare to touch Taiwan outside of gesturing like flying warplanes into Taiwan identification zone. Places like Kinmen are literally a river width away from mainland and CCP doesn't even shoot a few artillery over like they did in 1970s/1980s. Of course, Taiwan can start damage the city of Xiamen, can CCP afford such bloodshed which could cause internal instability?


But it's hella weird isn't it? It's not like Russia have good relations with the West in the past anyway. Even before Trump, I didn't see many Pro-Russians in the West. So I don't understand how they could suddenly became pro-Russia in a few short years.

It feels like the dislike have shift towards China and everybody just ignore Russia when they f'ed up the West.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: B777LRF, MaverickM11, OA412, victrola and 31 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos