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Aaron747
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Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:01 am

Events took a bloodier turn in metro Yangon the last couple days as civilians protesting the junta were retaliated against by the military. Impacts of airstrikes and indiscriminate shootings can be seen in residential areas on many videos throughout media covering the events.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/27/more-th ... orces.html

One thing's for sure - it was much easier for governments to keep this stuff under wraps before smartphones.
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johns624
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:15 am

Burma (easier to spell) has always been a semi-failed state.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:20 am

johns624 wrote:
Burma (easier to spell) has always been a semi-failed state.


Yep...works pretty well for the billionaire cabal in their military though.
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Aesma
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:47 am

I wonder if at some point the only way isn't for civilians to storm military bases ?
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alfa164
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:51 am

Aesma wrote:
I wonder if at some point the only way isn't for civilians to storm military bases ?


Many of the scattered tribes in Myanmar have their own military units; albeit no match for the national army, those forces, if combined, could become a potent cadre that could derail the ease with which the generals think they can control the population. The citizens have tasted democracy, and they elected someone who has been an icon to them for decades. It doesn't appear they are ready to back down. On the other hand, the military may be looking at their lone loyal ally, Russia, to perform a Syria-like intervention to back them up.

Murdering your own citizens does no speak well of any nation. The next few weeks - and perhaps months - will be fateful for all sides.
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:20 am

Which "tribe" do you want to prevail in Burma??
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rubberdogdo
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:58 am

The military has lost total legitimacy and will pay a heavy price for it’s actions. The previous poster mentioned Russia. Western intelligence would be wise to “ nudge “ Russia in the direction of aiding this junta thus costing them of treasure and headspace. Anything that attempts to spread Russian influence thinly on the ground will help the junta short term certainly but the West long term as well.
 
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:29 am

Aesma wrote:
I wonder if at some point the only way isn't for civilians to storm military bases ?

If UN peacekeeping is actually functional then there might be alternative ways?
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bennett123
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:53 pm

Could UN peacekeepers go in without a Security Council resolution.

Hard to see Russia/China supporting this.
 
johns624
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:22 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Could UN peacekeepers go in without a Security Council resolution.

Hard to see Russia/China supporting this.

It sounds like they need peacemakers, not peacekeepers. Of course, that would severely limit the number of countries that would want to contribute troops. Like you said, China and Russia would never allow it.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:02 pm

Attempting the solve internal conflicts by way of direct outside influence rarely, if ever, produces a good result, and history is littered with examples of monumental failures.

More than 40% of Myanmar's exports are almost equally split between mineral fuels and clothing, yet those 40%+ amount to nothing but a paltry 9BN USD annually. The total imports are in the order of 18BN annually, 1/3 of which is from China. It is, in other words, a nation rather isolated from the rest of the world economically, and any embargo placed would have limited, if any, effect; North Korea has managed to stay afloat under military dictatorship for 60+ years, with the limited aid of a single country.

UN resolutions are about as toothless as it comes under the best of circumstances, and a complete waste of time if one or more permanent members of the UNSC are in disagreement. Foreign military intervention is likely to lead to a 1980s Afghanistan / 60s-70s Vietnam redux, and is intolerable on a geopolitical scale.

If change is to be in Myanmar, it must therefore come from within and that would mean a civil uprising escalating to a full-blown civil war, with all of the horrors and massive loss of life and infrastructure that comes with it. Not pleasant at all, and least of all for those poor sods unfortunate enough to be caught in it. But it's the only viable way, and if the civpop is unable to mount a successful coup attempt, their fate could well be sealed alongside that of North Koreans. As always, however, there is no guarantee that a successful coup will lead to long-term democratic stability; replacing one oppressive regime with another is also a common historical outcome.
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c933103
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:59 pm

B777LRF wrote:
Attempting the solve internal conflicts by way of direct outside influence rarely, if ever, produces a good result, and history is littered with examples of monumental failures.

More than 40% of Myanmar's exports are almost equally split between mineral fuels and clothing, yet those 40%+ amount to nothing but a paltry 9BN USD annually. The total imports are in the order of 18BN annually, 1/3 of which is from China. It is, in other words, a nation rather isolated from the rest of the world economically, and any embargo placed would have limited, if any, effect; North Korea has managed to stay afloat under military dictatorship for 60+ years, with the limited aid of a single country.

UN resolutions are about as toothless as it comes under the best of circumstances, and a complete waste of time if one or more permanent members of the UNSC are in disagreement. Foreign military intervention is likely to lead to a 1980s Afghanistan / 60s-70s Vietnam redux, and is intolerable on a geopolitical scale.

If change is to be in Myanmar, it must therefore come from within and that would mean a civil uprising escalating to a full-blown civil war, with all of the horrors and massive loss of life and infrastructure that comes with it. Not pleasant at all, and least of all for those poor sods unfortunate enough to be caught in it. But it's the only viable way, and if the civpop is unable to mount a successful coup attempt, their fate could well be sealed alongside that of North Koreans. As always, however, there is no guarantee that a successful coup will lead to long-term democratic stability; replacing one oppressive regime with another is also a common historical outcome.

Myanmar already have decades of civil war.
To change from within, those "within" need to have at least power parity with the power in control of the government.
The example of Vietnam and Afghanistan being cited as bad example are result of lack of commitment by foreign powers to fully reset and create a new social order on top of what was previously there.
For example of success, see e.g. South Korea after WWII
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alfa164
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 pm

B777LRF wrote:
Attempting the solve internal conflicts by way of direct outside influence rarely, if ever, produces a good result, and history is littered with examples of monumental failures.


I would tend to agree, but NATO's entry into the Bosnian conflict is an outlier, and might be a guide if the international community - through the ASEAN states - were to grow some gonads and tell Russia to get out of the way.

I have always wondered about the possibility of a strong foreign government that, after learning some of its citizens (be they tourists, businessmen, or government officials)were inside the country, simply announced they were coming in militarily to protect those nationals. Give Myanmar's toy army 24 hours notice, and show them what a real army looks like. While everyone can debate the repercussions, sometimes the boldest action is the right action to take. Standing by while a rogue government - and the North Korean example cited above may start to become valid - gains total power is never a good idea.
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:41 pm

China is a bigger player here, 62% of exports go there, mostly minerals. If they see no threat I doubt they will be much interested.
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 4:36 pm

alfa164 wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
Attempting the solve internal conflicts by way of direct outside influence rarely, if ever, produces a good result, and history is littered with examples of monumental failures.


I would tend to agree, but NATO's entry into the Bosnian conflict is an outlier, and might be a guide if the international community - through the ASEAN states - were to grow some gonads and tell Russia to get out of the way.

I have always wondered about the possibility of a strong foreign government that, after learning some of its citizens (be they tourists, businessmen, or government officials)were inside the country, simply announced they were coming in militarily to protect those nationals. Give Myanmar's toy army 24 hours notice, and show them what a real army looks like. While everyone can debate the repercussions, sometimes the boldest action is the right action to take. Standing by while a rogue government - and the North Korean example cited above may start to become valid - gains total power is never a good idea.

Problem is, military intervention cost money, and also life of your own soliders. With the downfall of colonialism it's hard to justify this type of thing
As for ASEAN, let's not forget Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos also have a rather authoritarian government, and Thailand and Malaysia and the Philippines aren't in a position that can say they are having a stable working democracy free from external influence either.
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alfa164
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:20 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
China is a bigger player here, 62% of exports go there, mostly minerals. If they see no threat I doubt they will be much interested.


China pointedly did not send a high-level delegation to the Military Day parade. China's interests lie in a stable, peaceful Myanmar, and it will - in one way or another - lean towards whatever group can achieve that. So far, the military coup has only brought division and instability - clearly that is not in China's interests.
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Sokes
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:19 am

alfa164 wrote:
I have always wondered about the possibility of a strong foreign government that, after learning some of its citizens (be they tourists, businessmen, or government officials)were inside the country, simply announced they were coming in militarily to protect those nationals.

Since the ideology of "self determination" rules supreme, not an option.
What's the meaning of "self determination" in a failed state or even in a state that doesn't give investment security and therefore jobs?
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:20 am

alfa164 wrote:
On the other hand, the military may be looking at their lone loyal ally, Russia, to perform a Syria-like intervention to back them up.

And I though the US made an intervention in Syria.
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alfa164
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Re: Myanmar Military Killing Civilians With Indiscriminate Strikes

Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:48 am

Sokes wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
I have always wondered about the possibility of a strong foreign government that, after learning some of its citizens (be they tourists, businessmen, or government officials)were inside the country, simply announced they were coming in militarily to protect those nationals.

Since the ideology of "self determination" rules supreme, not an option.
What's the meaning of "self determination" in a failed state or even in a state that doesn't give investment security and therefore jobs?


The current situation is not "self determination"; the military threw the self-determination program out the window, and staged a coup.


Sokes wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
On the other hand, the military may be looking at their lone loyal ally, Russia, to perform a Syria-like intervention to back them up.

And I though the US made an intervention in Syria.


And you would be wrong.
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