Dogman wrote:alberchico wrote:Dogman wrote:The problem is that Minsk agreement(s) contain several items that are interpreted differently by Russia and Ukraine. One of the most obvious is that Russia insists on Ukraine talking directly to the separatists. Given that they are completely controlled by Russia there is the only reason why Russia wants it: to claim that they are powerless to do certain things, because the "independent" republics are not agreeing to it. Also, Ukraine insists on gaining control over the border with Russia first before having elections in the currently occupied territories, while Russia wants elections first, and after the election the border control will be implemented by the forces controlled by and loyal to the local government, which in turn will be controlled by Russia. Minsk agreement will never be implemented. It was conceived when the situation on the front line came to a point when no side knew how to proceed and needed a break to re-asses the situation and design a new plan of actions.
Is it possible that this large scale military buildup is a massive bluff by Putin designed to scare Ukraine into making concessions regarding the Minsk deal ? Ukraine would know that if Russia attacked, the U.S. and the E.U. would lodge protests and threaten sanctions, but would not actually commit forces into any combat situation. And the Ukrainian military is hardly in a position to contain a massive armored assault accompanied by the full might of the Russian air force. So this could be Putin's way to finally break the deadlock on his terms.
I wouldn't call it a simple bluff, since the situation can develop in numerous ways. It's definitely an attempt to scare Ukraine, or at least Ukrainian leaders into making concessions. It would not work with the previous president, with the current one I am not so sure. But there are strong forces in the country that will not let him just to surrender. In Ukraine the president does not have an absolute power. Yanukovich tried to get it, but he was not very smart and too impatient, so his regime got overthrown when he yielded to Putin's pressure and did not sign the agreement with EU. The current president knows that there is always a chance of an uprising, so he will not do something that is very unpopular with the majority of Ukrainian people.
Putin is always testing the boundaries of what he can get away with. He doesn't want a full scale war, but he is getting pretty bitter and resentful, so who knows what he would do. But Ukrainian army is not what it used to be in 2014. Maybe it is not a match for the Russian army, but it has experience now, and the soldiers are battle hardened. Plus, Russia also doesn't have too many really experienced soldiers. Probably more than Ukraine does, but less than you would think, looking at the size of the Russian army.
And the US and EU will do more than just threaten sanctions, especially the US. There was an abrupt and strong turn away from Russia by the Ukrainian government since Biden administration took power. And even though I am sure that there will be no direct military help my friends who are still in Ukraine are telling me that Western military planes are landing in Ukraine all the time, unloading equipment.
Your last point (that Ukraine's actions since Biden's election has changed greatly) is very valid. Zelensky hasn't kept any of his promises, his party failed miserably in the local elections country wide last summer (I believe), his approval ratings plummeted, he is going after the opposition, closing media (including 3 popular TV channels) critical of him this year.
It is very possible that he believes that the US will support him in some endeavour he tries in Eastern Ukraine. Would solve his problems at home, right?
Problem is that the US will obviously not get into a shooting war against Russia and this show of support can get to one's head and lead to serious consequences, just look at Georgia in 2008. Once Georgia attacked and starting getting an ass kicking the US's support changed from weapons for the Georgians to giving a ride home for the Georgian contingent in Iraq and some pathetic humanitarian goods (including toilet paper).
Also the Ukrainian army has changed since 2014, but it is still heavily demoralised and the majority has no desire to participate in this civil war.
On a related note, when the Ukrainian government seriously and openly talks about what they plan to do to the population on an official level when (more like IF) they regain control of their territories, do they actually expect people living in the Eastern Ukraine or Crimea to actually ever want to be a part of the same country ever again?