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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 3:15 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Australia has paused direct flights from India and made it illegal for Australians to attempt to return from India.

While the situation is dire, I’m still unclear why we did implement similar when the number of cases arriving in Australia was higher from the US and the UK.


Because numbers and test reports from India cannot be trusted.

Unfortunately, it isn't a question of how much the India numbers are undercounted, but what is the large multiple to use?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ing-deaths

“In normal times, we were cremating three bodies a day, but in the past 10 days it has increased,” he said. “One day it was 18, another day it was 20, then 22, and one day 25. In the past 10 days, we haven’t had any less than 12 bodies a day– 90% of them corona deaths.”

A similar recent surge in bodies was also reported by Abdul Quadir, who runs the Muslims cemetery in Muzaffarnagar. “Before corona, we buried two to three bodies a week, but now six to seven bodies arrive every day,” he said. “Only three of these bodies so far have come from hospital, the rest died at home and had not been tested.”

I'm afraid the lowest plausible multiple is 5X the official count, in my opinion. As there are so many unofficial ways people take care of their loved ones who are dead, I cannot put a top figure other than to say it is a pretty high multiple.

These data gaps are not new:
https://scroll.in/article/993324/by-hid ... ing-people

Let's talk positivity rate of testing. The overall rate now is over 20.6%. My opinion is if the positivity rate is above 10%, that means tests are too hard to come by to meaningfully measure the case rate. Goa is now at 40.5%! :faint: Last report I could find on Delhi was 32.8%. :pessimist: Mumbai has thankfully dropped from 28% to 9%. :optimist:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wi ... NewsSearch
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/co ... NewsSearch
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 336083.cms

From the ourworldindata testing link:
According to criteria published by WHO in May 2020, a positive rate of less than 5% is one indicator that the epidemic is under control in a country.

From the OurworldinData link, India is performing 1.24 tests per thousand per day. Errr... From the positivity rate, we can see that at least triple the tests are needed. In particular in Goa and Delhi. Probably other area.

Slums are being undertested:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 28843.html

A presumable coronavirus death example in the link where Nazia Begum was among the many patients who didn’t make it to the government’s official tally of Covid-19 fatalities.

I am of the opinion the slums are suffering in silence. I don't know the quick answer to solve this problem. But there is no doubt the undercount in India is massive.

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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 4:44 pm

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/66f8d ... d49d8a1284
Japan: With the mutant viruses, there are now a number of report that even outdoor and masked up they're still infected.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 6:48 pm

https://hk.yahoo.com/%E8%A1%9E%E9%98%B2 ... 57139.html

Hong Kong government: Because virus with N501Y and E484K mutation have higher transmissivity, ot is essential to arrange all residents in building same as the patient to be quarantined at quarantine camp for 21 days, due to the possibility of transmission by contact when using public facilities in the building, and they claim the 21 days figure is necessary as some imported mutant virus cases were only discovered near the end of 21 days quarantine period, hence 21 days quarantine for symptom-free negatively-tested residents are necessary.
The government discussed could it be possibke to exempt quarantine requirement for vaccinated individuals, but due to limited available data and concern on mutant virus, they decided to keep the rule same for the vaccinated.

The government made this announcement after they sent all 1027 residents of a residential tower into quarantine camp following the discovery of 1 individual in the building infected with the mutant virus from unidentified local source.
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Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 1:13 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Australia has paused direct flights from India and made it illegal for Australians to attempt to return from India.

While the situation is dire, I’m still unclear why we did implement similar when the number of cases arriving in Australia was higher from the US and the UK.


Because numbers and test reports from India cannot be trusted.


It is currently illegal, with fines up to AUD$60k for Australian citizens to attempt to return to Australia from India.

I get people's wariness around testing and reporitng in India, but the fact is that Australian citizens testing positive on arrival in Australia were doing so in numbers lower that Australian citizens arriving from either the US or the UK up until January. Yes, pre-departure negative tests are a requirement, but surely the question is why these don't seem to be working properly for people from India, plus an ongoing, but lower, number from the USA.

If a pause is needed for our quarantine system to work through the positive cases, that's fair enough. However, Australia hasn't done similar for arrivals fror first world countries.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 3:13 am

Kent350787 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Australia has paused direct flights from India and made it illegal for Australians to attempt to return from India.

While the situation is dire, I’m still unclear why we did implement similar when the number of cases arriving in Australia was higher from the US and the UK.


Because numbers and test reports from India cannot be trusted.


It is currently illegal, with fines up to AUD$60k for Australian citizens to attempt to return to Australia from India.

I get people's wariness around testing and reporitng in India, but the fact is that Australian citizens testing positive on arrival in Australia were doing so in numbers lower that Australian citizens arriving from either the US or the UK up until January. Yes, pre-departure negative tests are a requirement, but surely the question is why these don't seem to be working properly for people from India, plus an ongoing, but lower, number from the USA.

If a pause is needed for our quarantine system to work through the positive cases, that's fair enough. However, Australia hasn't done similar for arrivals fror first world countries.


The greater question here is: How can a country legally refuse entry to its own citizens?
The frenzied paranoia surrounding this virus has pushed many nations to just eschew the very basic constitutional rights of their own constituents, and I find it extremely worrying how easily they seem to be doing it.
Trying to keep a globally prevalent virus out of your border at all costs means an endless spiral of increasingly stringent measures and permanent isolation, at the cost of treating everyone coming in as a criminal and leaving even your own citizens out the door. That sounds like unhealthy denial to me.
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Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 3:33 am

Francoflier wrote:
The greater question here is: How can a country legally refuse entry to its own citizens?
The frenzied paranoia surrounding this virus has pushed many nations to just eschew the very basic constitutional rights of their own constituents, and I find it extremely worrying how easily they seem to be doing it.
Trying to keep a globally prevalent virus out of your border at all costs means an endless spiral of increasingly stringent measures and permanent isolation, at the cost of treating everyone coming in as a criminal and leaving even your own citizens out the door. That sounds like unhealthy denial to me.


There have been earlier controls in some cases, primarily through restricting places in mandatory quarantine. Apparently health authorities have been concerns with the increase in cases detected on arrival, but it is our Government that has now criminalised its citizens for trying to return, with no demonstrated good reason to do so.

The sevenfold increaee in arrival cases from India has been the health management issue. It's clearly easier to lock people out from the sub-continent than the USA.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 10:43 am

Kent350787 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Australia has paused direct flights from India and made it illegal for Australians to attempt to return from India.

While the situation is dire, I’m still unclear why we did implement similar when the number of cases arriving in Australia was higher from the US and the UK.


Because numbers and test reports from India cannot be trusted.


It is currently illegal, with fines up to AUD$60k for Australian citizens to attempt to return to Australia from India.

I get people's wariness around testing and reporitng in India, but the fact is that Australian citizens testing positive on arrival in Australia were doing so in numbers lower that Australian citizens arriving from either the US or the UK up until January. Yes, pre-departure negative tests are a requirement, but surely the question is why these don't seem to be working properly for people from India, plus an ongoing, but lower, number from the USA.

If a pause is needed for our quarantine system to work through the positive cases, that's fair enough. However, Australia hasn't done similar for arrivals fror first world countries.


Vistara's DEL-HKG flight gives some insight into the seriousness of the issue. 53 out of 150 tested positive.

Negative test means virus load didn't met the threshold at the point of test.

If one passenger boards the plane with botched, forged or undetected test report, he/she putting everyone on the flight at risk.

As more VOCs emerge, RT-PCR tests are not structured to detect new variants, it is prudent to take extraordinary precautions.

If the destination country already has community spread, no big deal, but countries like New Zealand and Australia shouldn't allow and invite another wave.
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Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 11:37 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Because numbers and test reports from India cannot be trusted.


It is currently illegal, with fines up to AUD$60k for Australian citizens to attempt to return to Australia from India.

I get people's wariness around testing and reporitng in India, but the fact is that Australian citizens testing positive on arrival in Australia were doing so in numbers lower that Australian citizens arriving from either the US or the UK up until January. Yes, pre-departure negative tests are a requirement, but surely the question is why these don't seem to be working properly for people from India, plus an ongoing, but lower, number from the USA.

If a pause is needed for our quarantine system to work through the positive cases, that's fair enough. However, Australia hasn't done similar for arrivals fror first world countries.


Vistara's DEL-HKG flight gives some insight into the seriousness of the issue. 53 out of 150 tested positive.

Negative test means virus load didn't met the threshold at the point of test.

If one passenger boards the plane with botched, forged or undetected test report, he/she putting everyone on the flight at risk.

As more VOCs emerge, RT-PCR tests are not structured to detect new variants, it is prudent to take extraordinary precautions.

If the destination country already has community spread, no big deal, but countries like New Zealand and Australia shouldn't allow and invite another wave.


Both Australia and NZ have medical quarantine requirements for all returning citizens.

Even a well known right wing commentator convicted of racist commentary has labelled the Government move to ban flights from India and criminalise seeking to get to Australia from India as racist.

It’s difficult to interpret the move in any other way.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 11:52 am

Kent350787 wrote:
...
Both Australia and NZ have medical quarantine requirements for all returning citizens.

Even a well known right wing commentator convicted of racist commentary has labelled the Government move to ban flights from India and criminalise seeking to get to Australia from India as racist.

It’s difficult to interpret the move in any other way.


I know the race card is being widely used. In my book public health safety of millions takes precedence over inconvenience of few. Sure, authorities have to figure out a way to bring back citizens.

Air India India-US RT J was $2700, as other countries start banning one way Y became $5000. Vacation, best friends wedding, grand parents to take care of newly born babies, excuse list is end less. Talk about priorities.
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 12:10 pm

Kent350787 wrote:

It’s difficult to interpret the move in any other way.


Indeed.

It sounds like multiple speed citizenship to me...
I could ses Australians returning from India to be subjected to quarantine and a comprehensive testing regime, even limiting the number of available tickets to avoid overloading quarantine facilities, but outright denying citizens of their most fundamental right (right of abode) is a low I never thought I'd see a modern Western democracy sink to.
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Derico
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 1:33 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:

It’s difficult to interpret the move in any other way.


Indeed.

It sounds like multiple speed citizenship to me...
I could ses Australians returning from India to be subjected to quarantine and a comprehensive testing regime, even limiting the number of available tickets to avoid overloading quarantine facilities, but outright denying citizens of their most fundamental right (right of abode) is a low I never thought I'd see a modern Western democracy sink to.


I totally agree and have mentioned it before. For all the moral questioning of China, this type of rule is a very "chinese government policy" thing to do.
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 5:32 pm

There is no tourism so there should be enough empty hotels to increase quarantine capacities as needed. Travellers aren't blameless though, Australia has been isolated for a year due to this virus, was travelling out of the country really necessary ?
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 6:54 pm

It does seem as though the citizens could be quarantined in armed forces bases or other isolated places at minimal expense.
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Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 8:38 pm

Aesma wrote:
There is no tourism so there should be enough empty hotels to increase quarantine capacities as needed. Travellers aren't blameless though, Australia has been isolated for a year due to this virus, was travelling out of the country really necessary ?

Certainly in NZ hotels, and military bases were evaluated as their suitability for quarantine facilities.
Military bases were eliminated as the accomodation relied heavily on shared use facilities, shared bathrooms dining areas etc. Remote bases are unsuitable simply because of their remoteness.
Hotels were excluded unless they were located close to major healthcare facilities.
This eliminated Queenstown as a location as nearby hospital capacity is very limited and would be easily overwhelmed.
Also required was workable transport connections to the two points of entry Auckland and Christchurch, and a large pool of local trained hospitality and care workers, to cater for the returnees. This requires locations in major population centres.
The hotels had to be of a design that could be secured to stop escapes and visits.
In NZ case, not apparently in Australia, access to a segregated and controllable secure outside area for fresh air and exercise is required.
So out of a huge pool of hotels, only a few were suitable.and overall capacity limited by the availability of the required staff prepared to work in such a demanding and risky situation.
Using hotels for a task so distant from what they were designed for was always a bodge. But speed of commissioning was of the essence, and the inevitable problems have been largely addressed as the lessons learnt have been applied.
Hopefully as both our populations, and intending travellers are being vaccinated these facilities can soon start to be downsized.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 10:35 pm

Aesma wrote:
There is no tourism so there should be enough empty hotels to increase quarantine capacities as needed. Travellers aren't blameless though, Australia has been isolated for a year due to this virus, was travelling out of the country really necessary ?


Although there have been some who returned to India for compassionate reasons (Australia also has very strict exit assessment and approvals), there has been a remaining number of citizens around the world pre-Covid who still have not been able to reasonably return to Australia.

I'm all for sound pre-departure testing, and investigating the reasons why the number of infected returnees remains high from India (followed by Bangladesh and the USA). But - let me not beat around the bush - the current closure to India does smack of racism, even if that wasn't the Government's reasoning.

Domestic tourism has shown a large recent increase, but there remains hotel capacity for quarantine. Not all hotels are suitable for medical quarantine, and that is being carefully managed, especially given 3 recent cases of apparent in-quarantine transmission. Some Australian states have chosen to move all infected returnees to hospitals, whereas others have set-up hotel based facilities ("hot hotels") for cases which don't require strong medical intervention.

With limited Government intervention in the inbound aviation market, some have been prevented from returning due to cost, and there is a weekly caps on returnee hotel quarantine places.

At this stage, Australia and NZ are in the lucky position of being able to panic over the occurrence of a single case in the community. The flip-side is that reopening to the world will be extremely difficult if we maintain this extremely low risk appetite into the future following high rates of vaccination (which we don't yet have).
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StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 11:26 pm

Aesma wrote:
There is no tourism so there should be enough empty hotels to increase quarantine capacities as needed. Travellers aren't blameless though, Australia has been isolated for a year due to this virus, was travelling out of the country really necessary ?


You might have the hotels but do you have the security to ensure that people maintain their quarantine? This is by no means an easy task to complete logistically.

While Australia has done very well handling Covid, what happened in Melbourne can easily repeat itself.
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Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 12:24 am

StarAC17 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
There is no tourism so there should be enough empty hotels to increase quarantine capacities as needed. Travellers aren't blameless though, Australia has been isolated for a year due to this virus, was travelling out of the country really necessary ?


You might have the hotels but do you have the security to ensure that people maintain their quarantine? This is by no means an easy task to complete logistically.

While Australia has done very well handling Covid, what happened in Melbourne can easily repeat itself.


I think we can say with the same mistakes, Victoria's second wave could be repeated. But regular testing of staff, limits (where possible) on multiple jobs and being at the front of the line for vaccination (some states with fully vaccinated staff and mandatory requirements) a further major outbreak is extremely unlikely. An occasional small cluster perhaps.

Even with no Covid circulating, there are around 20k tests a day nationally - which doesn't include mandatory tests for quarantine staff.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 08, 2021 4:19 am

Finally, an article on the South China Morning Post underlining the issue with Asia's 'zero Covid' policy (with a gratuitous shot of an AF 77W taking off from LAX for some reason):

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-e ... -hong-kong

Since the start of the pandemic, most of Asia seems to have taken the path of harsh restrictions to eliminate the virus from their borders, which has had the inevitable consequence of durably sealing their borders to the rest of the World. This applies to NZ and OZ as well.

While they have been largely successful in doing so, they now find themselves faced with a virus that has durably established itself within the human population, and which will likely never be eliminated as not enough people will get vaccinated.
The choice now becomes to remain isolated from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future, or do what the West does and learn to live with the virus by mitigating it as much as possible through building natural and artificial immunity.

The problem is that many of these nations have decided to rely more on their 'hiding in a hole' strategy than building immunity, and thus vaccination programs in these countries have barely even started and, in the few places where vaccines are available, uptake is low.
They now face difficult choices ahead as they have now gone so far down this path that coming back is going to be painful, but continuing forward will isolate them further and more durably through ever harsher measures, with nasty consequences on their economies, as they witness the West moving on.
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 08, 2021 9:49 am

Francoflier wrote:
Finally, an article on the South China Morning Post underlining the issue with Asia's 'zero Covid' policy (with a gratuitous shot of an AF 77W taking off from LAX for some reason):

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-e ... -hong-kong

Since the start of the pandemic, most of Asia seems to have taken the path of harsh restrictions to eliminate the virus from their borders, which has had the inevitable consequence of durably sealing their borders to the rest of the World. This applies to NZ and OZ as well.

While they have been largely successful in doing so, they now find themselves faced with a virus that has durably established itself within the human population, and which will likely never be eliminated as not enough people will get vaccinated.
The choice now becomes to remain isolated from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future, or do what the West does and learn to live with the virus by mitigating it as much as possible through building natural and artificial immunity.

The problem is that many of these nations have decided to rely more on their 'hiding in a hole' strategy than building immunity, and thus vaccination programs in these countries have barely even started and, in the few places where vaccines are available, uptake is low.
They now face difficult choices ahead as they have now gone so far down this path that coming back is going to be painful, but continuing forward will isolate them further and more durably through ever harsher measures, with nasty consequences on their economies, as they witness the West moving on.

Globally, vaccine is still limited. It help huamnity as a whole much more for vaccines to be ship to places with high case count than places with barely any cases
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Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun May 09, 2021 2:00 am

Francoflier wrote:
Finally, an article on the South China Morning Post underlining the issue with Asia's 'zero Covid' policy (with a gratuitous shot of an AF 77W taking off from LAX for some reason):

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-e ... -hong-kong

Since the start of the pandemic, most of Asia seems to have taken the path of harsh restrictions to eliminate the virus from their borders, which has had the inevitable consequence of durably sealing their borders to the rest of the World. This applies to NZ and OZ as well.

While they have been largely successful in doing so, they now find themselves faced with a virus that has durably established itself within the human population, and which will likely never be eliminated as not enough people will get vaccinated.
The choice now becomes to remain isolated from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future, or do what the West does and learn to live with the virus by mitigating it as much as possible through building natural and artificial immunity.

The problem is that many of these nations have decided to rely more on their 'hiding in a hole' strategy than building immunity, and thus vaccination programs in these countries have barely even started and, in the few places where vaccines are available, uptake is low.
They now face difficult choices ahead as they have now gone so far down this path that coming back is going to be painful, but continuing forward will isolate them further and more durably through ever harsher measures, with nasty consequences on their economies, as they witness the West moving on.


Certainly the NZ covid strategy is, like most of the rest of the world, heavily reliant on vaccinating a very high proportion of our population.
This requires minimising vaccine hesitancy. Vaccinating the last percentages of populations, is a very significant challenge yet to be faced everywhere , a challenge that will impact on the success or otherwise of any campaign.
Minimising vaccine hesitancy requires maximising public confidence in the vaccines. Therefore NZ was very conservative in approving the vaccines delaying until substantial data was available from the early vaccinating countries, as if significant problems had become evident, they would impact the eventual public confidence a high uptake requires. Data now available suggests that the Pfizer vaccine has amongst the very best effect and the least problems.
This and simplifying rollout with only one vaccine were the reason we have accepted as a trade off, delayed vaccine Pfizer supply in order to maximise public confidence. We have now enough Pfizer vaccine on order, and scheduled to arrive to complete our vaccination programme by year end.
The elimination strategy employed has given us this breathing space, without the urgency that most other countries have faced.
Community programs, and media campaigns are now well underway to reduce vaccine hesitancy and to counter vaccine misinformation. We have no need to prematurely to freely open entry to people from locations with high transmission rates.
I see travel opportunities here only slowly continuing to be advanced, especially until the bulk of our population is immunised.
I see it as misconceptions that :
1/ We a suffering harsh restrictions, the reality is that for most of NZ total lockdown and school closures have only been seven weeks of which two weeks were scheduled holidays anyway. And apart from border restrictions and masks on public transport we have suffered zero other restrictions for the vast majority of the last 15 months. With zero virus circulating our only restrictions are to minimise transmission in the event of leakage from border facilities.
2/ That we intend isolating ourselves from the rest of the world for ever. The isolation phase is only until our vaccination program widens our options.
But entry will be more restrictive then before, expect a requirement for verifiable vaccination certification, and some continuation on restrictions to entry, even prohibition, from locations with high infection rates.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue May 11, 2021 6:43 am

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202105115007.aspx
Northern Taiwan upgrading pandemic prevention measures, in the upcoming month, outdoor events with 500+ attendants, indoor events with 100+ attendants are to be suspended.

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202105110046.aspx
This is caused by emergence of 6 yet-to-be-tracable local cases, 5 of which have attended a casino-styled amusement center. Before the emergence of these yet to be traceable local cases, there're a series of local cases, all traceable to a quarantine hotel with airlines staff not following the protocol strictly, but these newly detected cases currently have no discoverable link with those imported cases and thus the risk have been deemed as increased, hence enhanced pandemic precaution level
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue May 11, 2021 1:02 pm

https://www.advertimes.com/20210511/article349664/
A Japanese publisher printed a coronavirus-themed ad on headlines of major newspapers across Japan.
The graphic used a image from WWII which saw young girls being trained to fight with bamboo spear, with a coronavirus pasted in the middle.
On the page, it referenced Japanese government's emergency status declaration, and have the following text:
No vaccines. No medicines.
Is it asking for us to fight with just bamboo spear.
At this rate, we will be killed by politics.

We are being deceived.
What exactly was the past year.
For how long we must keep restraining ourselves.
We want the competition on patience to end.
Don't say ridiculous excuses.
Just trying to force individuals to spend extra efforts, isn it really going to change any slight bit of the situation?
It is now, we should sound our voice of anger.


The publisher explained, "With masking, handwashing, avoiding crowd, and such, efforts can be taken by individual citizens have limits. There are probably many who feel that, current situation in Japan is comparable to near the end of WWII,with many unscientific strategies piling up and try to force even young girls to be trained with bamboo spear.To fight novel corona, the power of science (vaccine and medicine) is necessary. Isn't it time for us to sound our angry voice?"


It is also a great contrast to the publisher's ad back in January this year, which saw young pupils cleaning their text, with text "It's something we should do even if not being instructed", "To prevent the spread of coronavirus is the responsibility of individual"
------
------
https://www.nikkansports.com/general/ni ... 00715.html
https://m.huffingtonpost.jp/entry/story ... b33f4e4c7f
An economic professor in Japan, who is a government advisor, commented on Twitter, "To terminate the Olympics with such level of 'ripple', Haha", with an attached chart comparing Japan's case rate with foreign countries, like France, Canada, US, UK, Italy and Germany. It shows that infection count per million in Japan is a bit higher than UK while lower than all other listed countries as of May 7.
It have draw criticisms like "It's not appropriate to call the death of 10,000 a ripple", "My mother also died from 'such level of ripple'", "How could a country which cannot properly response to 'such level of ripple' organize international games?"

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/103481
Following the criticisms, he further commented on twitter "Since my motto is to objectively analyze Japan's situation in the world, I wish terms with ideological judgement attached with it which could obscure such analysis can be avoided.", without any apologies nor retraction.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue May 11, 2021 11:00 pm

c933103 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Finally, an article on the South China Morning Post underlining the issue with Asia's 'zero Covid' policy (with a gratuitous shot of an AF 77W taking off from LAX for some reason):

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-e ... -hong-kong

Since the start of the pandemic, most of Asia seems to have taken the path of harsh restrictions to eliminate the virus from their borders, which has had the inevitable consequence of durably sealing their borders to the rest of the World. This applies to NZ and OZ as well.

While they have been largely successful in doing so, they now find themselves faced with a virus that has durably established itself within the human population, and which will likely never be eliminated as not enough people will get vaccinated.
The choice now becomes to remain isolated from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future, or do what the West does and learn to live with the virus by mitigating it as much as possible through building natural and artificial immunity.

The problem is that many of these nations have decided to rely more on their 'hiding in a hole' strategy than building immunity, and thus vaccination programs in these countries have barely even started and, in the few places where vaccines are available, uptake is low.
They now face difficult choices ahead as they have now gone so far down this path that coming back is going to be painful, but continuing forward will isolate them further and more durably through ever harsher measures, with nasty consequences on their economies, as they witness the West moving on.

Globally, vaccine is still limited. It help huamnity as a whole much more for vaccines to be ship to places with high case count than places with barely any cases

Priority #1 must be to vaccinate all front line medical staff, paramedics, fire & clerks. Not in group #1 if not seeing a patient. I include every charity that helps medically +e.g., giving oxygen in India.
#2 Everyone over age 80

While high case counts are tragic, we need first responders safe.

Getting out if 'hiding in a hole' is vaccinating everyone who enters or leaves the country.

I don't have a great solution to getting everyone to vaccinate. I'm pro-vaccine, but as long as these are experimental vaccines, people must have a choice.

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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 6:14 am

https://www.mag2.com/p/news/496666
Unconfirmed rumor: If Japan decided not to host the Olympic single-sidedly, Japan will need to pay the International Olympic Committee 120 Billion Yen or 1.2 Billion USD compensation, with over half of this amount being Comcast's NBC Universal's US exclusive broadcasting and streaming licensing fee
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 1:53 pm

Couple of B1617 related news.

Changi airport developed a cluster of B1617. 10 of 14 infected airport workers are vaccinated. Cluster is growing.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/si ... t-14787262


B1617.2 may hinder UK reopening plans.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ay-experts
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 12:13 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Couple of B1617 related news.

Changi airport developed a cluster of B1617. 10 of 14 infected airport workers are vaccinated. Cluster is growing.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/si ... t-14787262


B1617.2 may hinder UK reopening plans.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ay-experts


One good thing from the article, at least the first one is that cases are very mild with common cold like symptoms being reported. I have read about other reported breakthrough cases with very mild symptoms

Medical experts have said that this was going to be likely and if a strong majority of people who are vaccinated report this then Covid19 will be another endemic coronavirus that's merely an inconvenience. That's good news.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 1:03 am

CDC relaxed indoor mask guidelines for vaccinated Americans. I am sure based on wild type only droplet assumptions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/13/heal ... dance.html
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 3:10 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
CDC relaxed indoor mask guidelines for vaccinated Americans.

In the past few weeks a lot of the talking heads on cable news finally started to express frustration about the overcautious mask rules. I'm sure the CDC and the administration felt the heat being turned up.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 3:45 am

c933103 wrote:
https://www.mag2.com/p/news/496666
Unconfirmed rumor: If Japan decided not to host the Olympic single-sidedly, Japan will need to pay the International Olympic Committee 120 Billion Yen or 1.2 Billion USD compensation, with over half of this amount being Comcast's NBC Universal's US exclusive broadcasting and streaming licensing fee


Japan can afford it - they have spent 10x that amount in the last 20 years building airports that virtually nobody uses.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 5:25 am

Aaron747 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.mag2.com/p/news/496666
Unconfirmed rumor: If Japan decided not to host the Olympic single-sidedly, Japan will need to pay the International Olympic Committee 120 Billion Yen or 1.2 Billion USD compensation, with over half of this amount being Comcast's NBC Universal's US exclusive broadcasting and streaming licensing fee


Japan can afford it - they have spent 10x that amount in the last 20 years building airports that virtually nobody uses.

Like which? If anything I think Japan need more airports for each cities instead of trying to make airports in-between regions that are close to no one, and not to reuse inconveniently located military airport for civilian purpose
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 6:21 am

c933103 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.mag2.com/p/news/496666
Unconfirmed rumor: If Japan decided not to host the Olympic single-sidedly, Japan will need to pay the International Olympic Committee 120 Billion Yen or 1.2 Billion USD compensation, with over half of this amount being Comcast's NBC Universal's US exclusive broadcasting and streaming licensing fee


Japan can afford it - they have spent 10x that amount in the last 20 years building airports that virtually nobody uses.

Like which? If anything I think Japan need more airports for each cities instead of trying to make airports in-between regions that are close to no one, and not to reuse inconveniently located military airport for civilian purpose


The details are not important, I was simply making a point that Japan can more than afford the penalty.

If you must know, check out the Noto, Miho-Yonago, Saga, Shizuoka, or Nanki-Shirahama airports. They're all under 750K passengers/year and have been open for years. There are many others, including Hyakuri, which is one of your mentioned repurposed military facilities. This criticism has been around for years.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2008/ ... y-to-open/
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 6:59 am

Aaron747 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Japan can afford it - they have spent 10x that amount in the last 20 years building airports that virtually nobody uses.

Like which? If anything I think Japan need more airports for each cities instead of trying to make airports in-between regions that are close to no one, and not to reuse inconveniently located military airport for civilian purpose


The details are not important, I was simply making a point that Japan can more than afford the penalty.

If you must know, check out the Noto, Miho-Yonago, Saga, Shizuoka, or Nanki-Shirahama airports. They're all under 750K passengers/year and have been open for years. There are many others, including Hyakuri, which is one of your mentioned repurposed military facilities. This criticism has been around for years.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2008/ ... y-to-open/

Shizuoka airport Hyakuri airfield are examples I refers to, Shizuoka airport try to satisfy demand of the prefecture's two major cities, Shizuoka and Hanamatsu, by building an airport somewhere between them, while Ibaraki try to lower the cost of constructing an airport for Northern Kanto area by reusing land and facilities from existing SDF base, but the result is they aren't close to anyone and thus see little usage. To actually make their infrastructure useful they need to actually spend money on building multiple airports near each cities instead of trying to make reuse inconveniently located existing facilities or make multiple ones share the same facility that is close to none.
Then places like Yonago and Nanki-Shirahama are geographically remote that an airport is definitely worthwhile even when demand is minimal, it would be wise to run multi-daily props instead of a few 737/320 to these airports, but there are not enough slots for airports in Tokyo and Osaka to run such low capacity high frequency service.
Related to the cancellation fee of Olympics, I don't think Japanese government cannot squeeze such budget out, but on the other hand I also don't think they would be willing to make such political decision to use the money this way, for the same reason why they're opening airport near nowhere to try to save money.
But then, this is all assuming if the rumor is true, which the link have also provided a number of reason why this might not be the case.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 4:08 pm

For the Olympics in Japan, one thing just come into my mind is that, I recall someone saying, Japan, with the organization of Tokyo Olympics in 1964, the country set the start of its rapid growth in 1960s-1980s. So some older politicians want to continue organizing the Olympics at all cost, despite the ongoing pandemic and all the issues, amid the stagnating economy of Japanese economy over the past three decades, although I very much doubt it would have any anticipated effect
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 9:37 pm

c933103 wrote:
For the Olympics in Japan, one thing just come into my mind is that, I recall someone saying, Japan, with the organization of Tokyo Olympics in 1964, the country set the start of its rapid growth in 1960s-1980s. So some older politicians want to continue organizing the Olympics at all cost, despite the ongoing pandemic and all the issues, amid the stagnating economy of Japanese economy over the past three decades, although I very much doubt it would have any anticipated effect


That’s right - many economists and survey of Keidanren members indicate they expect economic decline after the Olympics, not a big boost. The Olympics was just a big shot in the arm for construction companies tied to the LDP’s hip. Tokyo’s original Olympic bid projected $7 billion cost, and even before the COVID delay they had run that up to $13 billion. Government auditors have complained to Japanese media the actual cost is even higher than that, close to double.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 4:49 am

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202105155007.aspx
Taiwan further elevate pandemic prevention measures as new daily local case count increased to 180, with hotspot positivity rate reaching 3-10% although it's still 0.5% nationally, Taipei and New Taipei gathering size limited to 5 indoor and 10 outdoor, social distancing at restaurants with customer providing their names and phone number, closing of theater and hall and sports arena and library, in addition to nationwide closing of bar and club and entertainment center, and suspension of religious tour
It's said that if new case count continues to stay over 100 for over a weel then lockdown is possible, which will involve nationwide suspension of school and non-essential work (life-maintaining or order-maintaining) citizens will only be allowed to head out for food purchase, medical needs, and necessary work, social distancing or mask wearing even inside individual home, and hotspot regions will be quarantined with physical separation the citizens should not leave their home
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 5:24 am

Asia will never get out of this worsening cycle of restrictions.

By sticking to a strategy of isolation and increasing restrictions to suppress the virus instead of having focused early on vaccines to build immunity, there will come a time where the virus will mutate enough to require constant lockdowns and harsh quarantine measures to curtail it.
As this virus will never go away and keep evolving around the mesures we throw at it, they might find that this tactic may not work well on the long term. Immunity is the only viable solution. Anything else is only delaying the inevitable.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 5:32 am

Francoflier wrote:
Asia will never get out of this worsening cycle of restrictions.

By sticking to a strategy of isolation and increasing restrictions to suppress the virus instead of having focused early on vaccines to build immunity, there will come a time where the virus will mutate enough to require constant lockdowns and harsh quarantine measures to curtail it.
As this virus will never go away and keep evolving around the mesures we throw at it, they might find that this tactic may not work well on the long term. Immunity is the only viable solution. Anything else is only delaying the inevitable.


True enough, but it's also a cultural concern. Asian societies generally expect their governments to provide safety, whether that comes with costs or not.
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 6:15 am

Francoflier wrote:
Asia will never get out of this worsening cycle of restrictions.

By sticking to a strategy of isolation and increasing restrictions to suppress the virus instead of having focused early on vaccines to build immunity, there will come a time where the virus will mutate enough to require constant lockdowns and harsh quarantine measures to curtail it.
As this virus will never go away and keep evolving around the mesures we throw at it, they might find that this tactic may not work well on the long term. Immunity is the only viable solution. Anything else is only delaying the inevitable.

Only if the virus mutate into fully airborne
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 7:10 am

Francoflier wrote:
Asia will never get out of this worsening cycle of restrictions.

By sticking to a strategy of isolation and increasing restrictions to suppress the virus instead of having focused early on vaccines to build immunity, there will come a time where the virus will mutate enough to require constant lockdowns and harsh quarantine measures to curtail it.
As this virus will never go away and keep evolving around the mesures we throw at it, they might find that this tactic may not work well on the long term. Immunity is the only viable solution. Anything else is only delaying the inevitable.

It will indeed be interesting to see how things unwind. Humanity has, of course, faced countless new diseases, viruses, and illness over millennia, but what is new this time around is having governments attempting to exert this level of long-term technocratic control over society. I don’t say this as some anarchist by any means...I’ve done the masking, taken the vaccine, etc. But I am just genuinely curious how things will unfold in the medium term in certain countries/societies. Part of me truly is concerned that some societies have become so risk-averse that permanent curtailment of some individual liberties and isolation will be accepted.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 8:33 am

c933103 wrote:
Only if the virus mutate into fully airborne


I think it's pretty much been established by now that this is its main way of spreading.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021042 ... at-matters
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jvchamary/ ... 52b0114472

flyguy89 wrote:
It will indeed be interesting to see how things unwind. Humanity has, of course, faced countless new diseases, viruses, and illness over millennia, but what is new this time around is having governments attempting to exert this level of long-term technocratic control over society. I don’t say this as some anarchist by any means...I’ve done the masking, taken the vaccine, etc. But I am just genuinely curious how things will unfold in the medium term in certain countries/societies. Part of me truly is concerned that some societies have become so risk-averse that permanent curtailment of some individual liberties and isolation will be accepted.


I fully agree. The way governments have trampled over their own constitution and their citizens' fundamental rights over this crisis is very worrying. There seemed to be little in the way of oversight, accountability or proper justification for some harsh measures implemented by governments around the World in many cases, which all seemed to take advantage of the general panic, often amplified by sensationalism-driven media.
I am very glad that there was some level of resistance in places. Whereas a lot of criticism was directed at those who defied or protested the measures, I for one am glad that there was some blowback to keep officials in check.
Note that I'm not talking about the mask tantrum-babies and the Walmart Karens, but those who protested curfews, movement restrictions or downright stay-at-home orders, at least past a certain point.

In Asia, that resistance is basically non-existant. As Aaron747 said, there is a lot of cultural aversion to any risk and the expectation that governments are to keep their citizens safe from everything (at least from what they perceive as a threat to them). There is also probably more acceptance of more authoritarian-style governments.
Unfortunately, a risk-free life is impossible and when it comes to covid, the threat will always be there.
A zero-covid goal is completely unsustainable. Of course, wanting to prevent outbreaks in a largely un-immunized population is laudable, but there will come a time, after the vaccine is widely available, when a compromise will have to be made and a socially acceptable degree of infection and death will have to be found, just like any other infectious disease, or anything else we do in life for that matter.
And before that, a realization that vaccination is the only way out of this crisis needs to happen, which I believe hasn't happened in many Asian nations yet, judging by the lack of efforts put into vaccination campaigns and, where available, the lack of vaccine uptake (e.g. Hong Kong).

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... nia~Africa
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 9:11 am

https://twitter.com/takenoma/status/1393206490144538630
Some in Japan launched "Twitter demonstration" and a change.org campaign trying to gather support for the Olympic, amid widespread opposition
Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Only if the virus mutate into fully airborne


I think it's pretty much been established by now that this is its main way of spreading.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021042 ... at-matters
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jvchamary/ ... 52b0114472

It do happen but I am not aware of evidence suggesting it's the main way.
If it's the main way then social distancing is very meaningless and wearing of cloth mask and surgical mask would also been quite meaningless, and face shield would also be very meaningless
And the transmission rate would have been triple or quadruple the current rate if it is fully airborne
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 1:53 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202105155007.aspx
Taiwan further elevate pandemic prevention measures as new daily local case count increased to 180, with hotspot positivity rate reaching 3-10% although it's still 0.5% nationally, Taipei and New Taipei gathering size limited to 5 indoor and 10 outdoor, social distancing at restaurants with customer providing their names and phone number, closing of theater and hall and sports arena and library, in addition to nationwide closing of bar and club and entertainment center, and suspension of religious tour
It's said that if new case count continues to stay over 100 for over a weel then lockdown is possible, which will involve nationwide suspension of school and non-essential work (life-maintaining or order-maintaining) citizens will only be allowed to head out for food purchase, medical needs, and necessary work, social distancing or mask wearing even inside individual home, and hotspot regions will be quarantined with physical separation the citizens should not leave their home


How did this cluster start? It seems it came out of nowhere... I have noticed this pattern around the world in the last year. To me, it seems a bit strange really.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 2:54 pm

CometII wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202105155007.aspx
Taiwan further elevate pandemic prevention measures as new daily local case count increased to 180, with hotspot positivity rate reaching 3-10% although it's still 0.5% nationally, Taipei and New Taipei gathering size limited to 5 indoor and 10 outdoor, social distancing at restaurants with customer providing their names and phone number, closing of theater and hall and sports arena and library, in addition to nationwide closing of bar and club and entertainment center, and suspension of religious tour
It's said that if new case count continues to stay over 100 for over a weel then lockdown is possible, which will involve nationwide suspension of school and non-essential work (life-maintaining or order-maintaining) citizens will only be allowed to head out for food purchase, medical needs, and necessary work, social distancing or mask wearing even inside individual home, and hotspot regions will be quarantined with physical separation the citizens should not leave their home


How did this cluster start? It seems it came out of nowhere... I have noticed this pattern around the world in the last year. To me, it seems a bit strange really.

Very likely from the cargo pilots. I have read before that Taiwanese authorities deliberately not testing incoming foreign pilots for COVID for the fear that 1) the aircraft can't leave if they test positive; 2) they will have to treat the pilot in Taiwan, exposing healthcare workers to COVID.

For the situation in Asia, to be honest, it is an incredible level of vaccine hesitancy (or a very slow immunisation campaign) and I can't help myself but to think that this will ultimately end very badly. The UK and US probably did not get it right at the beginning of the pandemic and paid a hefty price for not locking down soon enough in the Spring wave and the Winter wave. But they have got the exit strategy right and is on the way to normalcy. For the vaccinated, COVID is truly "just a flu".

For Asia, a lot of civil liberties are sacrificed. For example, in Hong Kong, we can't have more than 4 people in a group in a park or on the street and have to log our presence with the governmental surveillance software everywhere we go or face a fine. The worst part is that there is no end in sight for this.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 4:52 pm

CometII wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202105155007.aspx
Taiwan further elevate pandemic prevention measures as new daily local case count increased to 180, with hotspot positivity rate reaching 3-10% although it's still 0.5% nationally, Taipei and New Taipei gathering size limited to 5 indoor and 10 outdoor, social distancing at restaurants with customer providing their names and phone number, closing of theater and hall and sports arena and library, in addition to nationwide closing of bar and club and entertainment center, and suspension of religious tour
It's said that if new case count continues to stay over 100 for over a weel then lockdown is possible, which will involve nationwide suspension of school and non-essential work (life-maintaining or order-maintaining) citizens will only be allowed to head out for food purchase, medical needs, and necessary work, social distancing or mask wearing even inside individual home, and hotspot regions will be quarantined with physical separation the citizens should not leave their home


How did this cluster start? It seems it came out of nowhere... I have noticed this pattern around the world in the last year. To me, it seems a bit strange really.

It's from China Airlines, starting from April 20 there have been more and more cases around China Airlines pilots and staff and the hotel they quarantine at, and friends and relatives of them and beyond. Before the community spread officially detected there were already quite a number of generation being detected and they're going to quarantine essentially the entire China Airlines trying to stop the transmission inside it. But with so many transmissions already occurring, it unavoidably spreaded into community, and as the community wasn't really taking much precaution measures other than mask wearing, the virus spreaded fast before being noticed, with for example almost fifty cases here are from a single teahouse
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 5:54 pm

Toenga wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Finally, an article on the South China Morning Post underlining the issue with Asia's 'zero Covid' policy (with a gratuitous shot of an AF 77W taking off from LAX for some reason):

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-e ... -hong-kong

Since the start of the pandemic, most of Asia seems to have taken the path of harsh restrictions to eliminate the virus from their borders, which has had the inevitable consequence of durably sealing their borders to the rest of the World. This applies to NZ and OZ as well.

While they have been largely successful in doing so, they now find themselves faced with a virus that has durably established itself within the human population, and which will likely never be eliminated as not enough people will get vaccinated.
The choice now becomes to remain isolated from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future, or do what the West does and learn to live with the virus by mitigating it as much as possible through building natural and artificial immunity.

The problem is that many of these nations have decided to rely more on their 'hiding in a hole' strategy than building immunity, and thus vaccination programs in these countries have barely even started and, in the few places where vaccines are available, uptake is low.
They now face difficult choices ahead as they have now gone so far down this path that coming back is going to be painful, but continuing forward will isolate them further and more durably through ever harsher measures, with nasty consequences on their economies, as they witness the West moving on.


Certainly the NZ covid strategy is, like most of the rest of the world, heavily reliant on vaccinating a very high proportion of our population.
This requires minimising vaccine hesitancy. Vaccinating the last percentages of populations, is a very significant challenge yet to be faced everywhere , a challenge that will impact on the success or otherwise of any campaign.
Minimising vaccine hesitancy requires maximising public confidence in the vaccines. Therefore NZ was very conservative in approving the vaccines delaying until substantial data was available from the early vaccinating countries, as if significant problems had become evident, they would impact the eventual public confidence a high uptake requires. Data now available suggests that the Pfizer vaccine has amongst the very best effect and the least problems.
This and simplifying rollout with only one vaccine were the reason we have accepted as a trade off, delayed vaccine Pfizer supply in order to maximise public confidence. We have now enough Pfizer vaccine on order, and scheduled to arrive to complete our vaccination programme by year end.
The elimination strategy employed has given us this breathing space, without the urgency that most other countries have faced.
Community programs, and media campaigns are now well underway to reduce vaccine hesitancy and to counter vaccine misinformation. We have no need to prematurely to freely open entry to people from locations with high transmission rates.
I see travel opportunities here only slowly continuing to be advanced, especially until the bulk of our population is immunised.
I see it as misconceptions that :
1/ We a suffering harsh restrictions, the reality is that for most of NZ total lockdown and school closures have only been seven weeks of which two weeks were scheduled holidays anyway. And apart from border restrictions and masks on public transport we have suffered zero other restrictions for the vast majority of the last 15 months. With zero virus circulating our only restrictions are to minimise transmission in the event of leakage from border facilities.
2/ That we intend isolating ourselves from the rest of the world for ever. The isolation phase is only until our vaccination program widens our options.
But entry will be more restrictive then before, expect a requirement for verifiable vaccination certification, and some continuation on restrictions to entry, even prohibition, from locations with high infection rates.


That is all good on paper and NZ is to be commended for how they handled covid.

When you do open the country to travel must realize that even with a large percentage of vaccination and requiring proof of Covid19 vaccination for all 100% incoming travelers cases are going to get in and spread, ideally most will be mild but not all of them. Will NZ be ready then to handle that community spread or will it be locking down when this happens and it is inevitable.

flyguy89 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Asia will never get out of this worsening cycle of restrictions.

By sticking to a strategy of isolation and increasing restrictions to suppress the virus instead of having focused early on vaccines to build immunity, there will come a time where the virus will mutate enough to require constant lockdowns and harsh quarantine measures to curtail it.
As this virus will never go away and keep evolving around the mesures we throw at it, they might find that this tactic may not work well on the long term. Immunity is the only viable solution. Anything else is only delaying the inevitable.

It will indeed be interesting to see how things unwind. Humanity has, of course, faced countless new diseases, viruses, and illness over millennia, but what is new this time around is having governments attempting to exert this level of long-term technocratic control over society. I don’t say this as some anarchist by any means...I’ve done the masking, taken the vaccine, etc. But I am just genuinely curious how things will unfold in the medium term in certain countries/societies. Part of me truly is concerned that some societies have become so risk-averse that permanent curtailment of some individual liberties and isolation will be accepted.


I think its two things primarily.

One is (because of successful vaccines and treatments) many diseases much worse than Covid have been either eradicated or can be controlled we have probably most of the living adults alive today not remember the terror those other infections caused. There is no living person alive today that can actually tell us how bad Polio or the Spanish Flu was. Viruses like Measles, Mumps, Chickenpox etc. were essentially considered so called right-of-passages in life not so long ago. Definitely not so today at least in the west.

In essence we have short memories and have become complacent. So this feels even to really smart people (who should know better) a huge crisis when back in 1850 this would be just one of the things that will kill you. We have managed to deal with a lot of this and Covid is a shock in the 21st century but compared to past pandemics this is essentially a peanut.

Cancer rates are rising now and people blame, things like the sun, plastic, vaccines, meat, etc. Well yes Cancer rates are rising because people are for the first time living to 80 on a regular basis and the body breaks down and Cancer can happen and we can screen for it and catch it early.

Go back to 1850 and that would just be called death, it sucks for the family but life goes one. (I am well aware this is heartless, but nature is a heartless b*tch). Just because humans developed technology to help up live longer and stay healthy for the most part doesn't mean that we have changed nature and this brings me to the next reason.

TOTAL ARROGANCE that humans feel they can control nature and are calling the shots. Pandemics are natural and they f*ck shit up and this is what we are seeing now. On occasion the wrong animals meet and a virus or bacteria pass to humans that is novel and reigns terror. Ironically this pandemic might not even be natural but a consequence of human playing god and it leaked from a lab.

To give the doctors credit they have been sounding the alarm about this for years so many did know this was coming. Also many who study climate change have said that pandemics are a consequence of things like deforestation or urban sprawl thus making something like covid be a once in a decade event instead of a once in a century event.

Another level of arrogance is that many people think that disease is not my problem because I am rich and have the best healthcare or I do this, this and this to keep myself healthy. I would argue most of the anti-vaxxers fall in here.

When that reality falls away many in the government have reacted to these measures as they have been used in the past but the reality which we are seeing now is that it only buys time as the 100nm virus has been around a lot longer than humans and has the evolutionarily advantage. When we eradicated smallpox it did take 200 or so years to achieve it, I think the first vaccine for Smallpox was created in the late 1700's and the virus was eradicated in 1980. We are going to have to live with Covid for some time if not forever. We need to have a debate now about how to move forward and live with Covid or we will be in a perpetual state of this and I thinks society is at the seams in a lot of places.

George Carlin explains it better than me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X29lF43mUlo
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
Tiredofhumanity
Posts: 168
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 6:58 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Finally, an article on the South China Morning Post underlining the issue with Asia's 'zero Covid' policy (with a gratuitous shot of an AF 77W taking off from LAX for some reason):

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-e ... -hong-kong

Since the start of the pandemic, most of Asia seems to have taken the path of harsh restrictions to eliminate the virus from their borders, which has had the inevitable consequence of durably sealing their borders to the rest of the World. This applies to NZ and OZ as well.

While they have been largely successful in doing so, they now find themselves faced with a virus that has durably established itself within the human population, and which will likely never be eliminated as not enough people will get vaccinated.
The choice now becomes to remain isolated from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future, or do what the West does and learn to live with the virus by mitigating it as much as possible through building natural and artificial immunity.

The problem is that many of these nations have decided to rely more on their 'hiding in a hole' strategy than building immunity, and thus vaccination programs in these countries have barely even started and, in the few places where vaccines are available, uptake is low.
They now face difficult choices ahead as they have now gone so far down this path that coming back is going to be painful, but continuing forward will isolate them further and more durably through ever harsher measures, with nasty consequences on their economies, as they witness the West moving on.


Certainly the NZ covid strategy is, like most of the rest of the world, heavily reliant on vaccinating a very high proportion of our population.
This requires minimising vaccine hesitancy. Vaccinating the last percentages of populations, is a very significant challenge yet to be faced everywhere , a challenge that will impact on the success or otherwise of any campaign.
Minimising vaccine hesitancy requires maximising public confidence in the vaccines. Therefore NZ was very conservative in approving the vaccines delaying until substantial data was available from the early vaccinating countries, as if significant problems had become evident, they would impact the eventual public confidence a high uptake requires. Data now available suggests that the Pfizer vaccine has amongst the very best effect and the least problems.
This and simplifying rollout with only one vaccine were the reason we have accepted as a trade off, delayed vaccine Pfizer supply in order to maximise public confidence. We have now enough Pfizer vaccine on order, and scheduled to arrive to complete our vaccination programme by year end.
The elimination strategy employed has given us this breathing space, without the urgency that most other countries have faced.
Community programs, and media campaigns are now well underway to reduce vaccine hesitancy and to counter vaccine misinformation. We have no need to prematurely to freely open entry to people from locations with high transmission rates.
I see travel opportunities here only slowly continuing to be advanced, especially until the bulk of our population is immunised.
I see it as misconceptions that :
1/ We a suffering harsh restrictions, the reality is that for most of NZ total lockdown and school closures have only been seven weeks of which two weeks were scheduled holidays anyway. And apart from border restrictions and masks on public transport we have suffered zero other restrictions for the vast majority of the last 15 months. With zero virus circulating our only restrictions are to minimise transmission in the event of leakage from border facilities.
2/ That we intend isolating ourselves from the rest of the world for ever. The isolation phase is only until our vaccination program widens our options.
But entry will be more restrictive then before, expect a requirement for verifiable vaccination certification, and some continuation on restrictions to entry, even prohibition, from locations with high infection rates.


That is all good on paper and NZ is to be commended for how they handled covid.

When you do open the country to travel must realize that even with a large percentage of vaccination and requiring proof of Covid19 vaccination for all 100% incoming travelers cases are going to get in and spread, ideally most will be mild but not all of them. Will NZ be ready then to handle that community spread or will it be locking down when this happens and it is inevitable.

flyguy89 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Asia will never get out of this worsening cycle of restrictions.

By sticking to a strategy of isolation and increasing restrictions to suppress the virus instead of having focused early on vaccines to build immunity, there will come a time where the virus will mutate enough to require constant lockdowns and harsh quarantine measures to curtail it.
As this virus will never go away and keep evolving around the mesures we throw at it, they might find that this tactic may not work well on the long term. Immunity is the only viable solution. Anything else is only delaying the inevitable.

It will indeed be interesting to see how things unwind. Humanity has, of course, faced countless new diseases, viruses, and illness over millennia, but what is new this time around is having governments attempting to exert this level of long-term technocratic control over society. I don’t say this as some anarchist by any means...I’ve done the masking, taken the vaccine, etc. But I am just genuinely curious how things will unfold in the medium term in certain countries/societies. Part of me truly is concerned that some societies have become so risk-averse that permanent curtailment of some individual liberties and isolation will be accepted.


I think its two things primarily.

One is (because of successful vaccines and treatments) many diseases much worse than Covid have been either eradicated or can be controlled we have probably most of the living adults alive today not remember the terror those other infections caused. There is no living person alive today that can actually tell us how bad Polio or the Spanish Flu was. Viruses like Measles, Mumps, Chickenpox etc. were essentially considered so called right-of-passages in life not so long ago. Definitely not so today at least in the west.

In essence we have short memories and have become complacent. So this feels even to really smart people (who should know better) a huge crisis when back in 1850 this would be just one of the things that will kill you. We have managed to deal with a lot of this and Covid is a shock in the 21st century but compared to past pandemics this is essentially a peanut.

Cancer rates are rising now and people blame, things like the sun, plastic, vaccines, meat, etc. Well yes Cancer rates are rising because people are for the first time living to 80 on a regular basis and the body breaks down and Cancer can happen and we can screen for it and catch it early.

Go back to 1850 and that would just be called death, it sucks for the family but life goes one. (I am well aware this is heartless, but nature is a heartless b*tch). Just because humans developed technology to help up live longer and stay healthy for the most part doesn't mean that we have changed nature and this brings me to the next reason.

TOTAL ARROGANCE that humans feel they can control nature and are calling the shots. Pandemics are natural and they f*ck shit up and this is what we are seeing now. On occasion the wrong animals meet and a virus or bacteria pass to humans that is novel and reigns terror. Ironically this pandemic might not even be natural but a consequence of human playing god and it leaked from a lab.

To give the doctors credit they have been sounding the alarm about this for years so many did know this was coming. Also many who study climate change have said that pandemics are a consequence of things like deforestation or urban sprawl thus making something like covid be a once in a decade event instead of a once in a century event.

Another level of arrogance is that many people think that disease is not my problem because I am rich and have the best healthcare or I do this, this and this to keep myself healthy. I would argue most of the anti-vaxxers fall in here.

When that reality falls away many in the government have reacted to these measures as they have been used in the past but the reality which we are seeing now is that it only buys time as the 100nm virus has been around a lot longer than humans and has the evolutionarily advantage. When we eradicated smallpox it did take 200 or so years to achieve it, I think the first vaccine for Smallpox was created in the late 1700's and the virus was eradicated in 1980. We are going to have to live with Covid for some time if not forever. We need to have a debate now about how to move forward and live with Covid or we will be in a perpetual state of this and I thinks society is at the seams in a lot of places.

George Carlin explains it better than me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X29lF43mUlo


:thumbsup:

Even taking out the more far-fetched theory of the lab leak, you could still argue it was humans directly exploiting nature for resources through the PRC-funded exotic/luxury meat farming and poorly-regulated wildlife trade that got us here, even when the same thing happened 18 years ago. Let's not forget there is still demand for mink fur coats as well in most western countries...

Living in an increasingly globalised world makes the NZ zero-covid strategy impossible in the long term - something is bound to escape whether through air freight or sea freight crews.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8995
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 7:48 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Asia will never get out of this worsening cycle of restrictions.

By sticking to a strategy of isolation and increasing restrictions to suppress the virus instead of having focused early on vaccines to build immunity, there will come a time where the virus will mutate enough to require constant lockdowns and harsh quarantine measures to curtail it.
As this virus will never go away and keep evolving around the mesures we throw at it, they might find that this tactic may not work well on the long term. Immunity is the only viable solution. Anything else is only delaying the inevitable.


Hongkong and Singapore were trying to restore normalcy, though international travelers are always quarantined. That went kaput when B1617 showed up.

There are statistical models run by epidemiologists comparing vac (vs) vac+other mitigations.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 52/photo/1
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 27/photo/1
All posts are just opinions.
 
Tiredofhumanity
Posts: 168
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 8:18 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Asia will never get out of this worsening cycle of restrictions.

By sticking to a strategy of isolation and increasing restrictions to suppress the virus instead of having focused early on vaccines to build immunity, there will come a time where the virus will mutate enough to require constant lockdowns and harsh quarantine measures to curtail it.
As this virus will never go away and keep evolving around the mesures we throw at it, they might find that this tactic may not work well on the long term. Immunity is the only viable solution. Anything else is only delaying the inevitable.


Hongkong and Singapore were trying to restore normalcy, though international travelers are always quarantined. That went kaput when B1617 showed up.

There are statistical models run by epidemiologists comparing vac (vs) vac+other mitigations.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 52/photo/1
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 27/photo/1


While I'm miffed with the recent CDC decision, where did these numbers/calculations come from and what assumptions are they using?

There's a reason studies go through peer review.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8995
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 8:56 pm

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
...
While I'm miffed with the recent CDC decision, where did these numbers/calculations come from and what assumptions are they using?

There's a reason studies go through peer review.


If I understand correctly this is from University of Calgary. Not sure.
https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD

Lancet had a publication in March on same topic
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 73-3099(21)00143-2/fulltext

Where as CDC seems to taking selective study route. When I saw Oxford University Publication, reminded be of some brand imaging company used by a large airline for these kind of studies.

After 100s of epidemiologists got puzzled by latest guidance, CNN started spinning the story that this was based on medical professionals infection/recovery data.

Epidemiologists keep saying CDC cannot use data from controlled environments like a TV studio, NFL team, School Athletics or Health Care where people are tested weekly. Cannot be extrapolated to public.

UK study model estimates worst case B1617.2 is 2.4X transmissible compared to wild type.

There is mountains of data on how to deal with this pandemic, not just locking down, CDC refuses to acknowledge.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Tiredofhumanity
Posts: 168
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 10:55 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:
...
While I'm miffed with the recent CDC decision, where did these numbers/calculations come from and what assumptions are they using?

There's a reason studies go through peer review.


If I understand correctly this is from University of Calgary. Not sure.
https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD

Lancet had a publication in March on same topic
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 73-3099(21)00143-2/fulltext

Where as CDC seems to taking selective study route. When I saw Oxford University Publication, reminded be of some brand imaging company used by a large airline for these kind of studies.

After 100s of epidemiologists got puzzled by latest guidance, CNN started spinning the story that this was based on medical professionals infection/recovery data.

Epidemiologists keep saying CDC cannot use data from controlled environments like a TV studio, NFL team, School Athletics or Health Care where people are tested weekly. Cannot be extrapolated to public.

UK study model estimates worst case B1617.2 is 2.4X transmissible compared to wild type.

There is mountains of data on how to deal with this pandemic, not just locking down, CDC refuses to acknowledge.


Dr. Gaspero seems to be one of the "zero covid" proponents (never going to happen at this point), but I still see the urgency on wearing masks at this point in the vaccine campaign.
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