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fallap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:00 pm

Got my first Covid-19 test today during the whole pandemic. Was negative, which is to be expected for a healthy 30 year old male.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:09 pm

The doctors aren't running the show, but they need a voice before they cannot handle the next wave. The problem is a huge number of anti-vax who expect everything to be dropped for them.

My relative was happy to be assigned off coronavirus, but has been warned they might stand up another ward because too many are Unvaccinated and being hospitalized. This has stopped colonoscopies and other necessary "elective" surgeries they must restart. They will start the week performing necessary "elective" surgeries until the wave forces otherwise.

Sadly, they expect to switch over tomorrow after lunch. When normal life extending medical procedures cannot be performed because selfish people won't get vaccinated, the doctors get a say.

They need the ward already. But that means depriving people off other needed care. The medical staff are exhausted. They are motivated in the pediatric ward, not so much for adults who chose to avoid a needle.

flyingclrs727 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Lots of juvenile cases where my relative works coronavirus. There are typos unfortunately in the link (mix of weekly and two week numbers and mix under age 19 and under age 18... oops). 188 under age 19 cases in 2 weeks, 50 age zero through age 9 (day before ten).

https://www.westernslopenow.com/news/lo ... id-19/amp/

Its here... In the schools and I bet less well run areas don't even know they have a problem. When this gets into the big year round schools... yea...

Mesa county had to stand up a pediatric coronavirus ward at the hospital... ummm... :scratchchin:

I hope your area is randomly testing kids or you won't know until Delta is well established in your area.

Lightsaber



I wonder if an EUA could be issued for vaccinating children in some areas of the US. It's pretty lame to say children don't need to be vaccinated. Maybe the earliest variants of SARS-COV-2 don't affect children very much, but there's no guarantee that future variants won't.

They are performing testing. A EUA requires testing and with the delays, I always take the end of the estimated time frames.

So age 6-11 in September
Age zero through 5 in December

Vaccinated parents slow this virus spread

Considering how crowded the bars were in Colorado Memorial day weekend, the spike is no surprise. (Don't worry, watching in disbelief from the street and half the people were from out of state as drunk people... can be heard a block away...).

Oh, the airports though. 1.5 to just under 2 million vectors. I'm all for the vaccinated traveling.
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

Meh, I'll be chicken little for 4 more weeks and then people will complain it is unfair...

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:25 pm

fallap wrote:
Got my first Covid-19 test today during the whole pandemic. Was negative, which is to be expected for a healthy 30 year old male.

The Delta variant is hitting the young. See above links. It hit Mesa county Colorado first. Notice spread in young kids. There is a minimum number of patients to stand up a hospital ward and in that county they have stood up an adult coronavirus ward, a pediatric coronavirus ward, and are so full they are getting ready to stand up a 3rd ward as they have too many patients. To staff the ward, others must be denied care as the doctors and nurses come from other departments.

You do know a vaccine makes it 90% less likely a person will transmit the virus? (We've had numerous links in this thread). We're between the Alpha variant wave and delta variant wave, in my opinion.

My relative's hospital watched a healthy male teenager die fast; the staff still do not understand why (family refused autopsy, which is their right). I fully admit most of the patients in the ward have obvious visual comobidities (age, weight), but healthy people are hit too.

Over two dozen of my relatives young patients aspired to join the military. Covid19 lung damage ended that career choice.

Lightsaber

Ps (late edit):
You do know men are more vulnerable to Covid19 and coronavirus induced heart atracks? I haven't heard if a 30 year old having a heart attack, yet though.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7271824/
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:24 pm

aerolimani wrote:
I'm beginning to observe something in the scientific world. There is a rather stark difference between what epidemiologists seem to say, and what virologists seem to say. Specifically, I've started listening to these virology podcasts, This Week In Virology. They're starting to convince me that maybe the epidemiologists are too alarmist. They tend to get all the headlines in our spectacle-hungry media.


Yes, a handful of epidemiologists making lot of noise, but if virologists were spot on, why are we finding ourselves pants down with every variant?
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:42 pm

I've lost my job. I've lost my house. I had to move 3 states away to find new work. I got the vaccine as soon as I was eligible. I've given away 1.5 years of my life and thousands of dollars in savings to make ends meet.

I don't care about COVID anymore. I've done my part by getting vaccinated. I will not be giving away any more years of my life, in particular nor will I be held hostage by "cases" among people who refuse to get vaccinated.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:18 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
I'm beginning to observe something in the scientific world. There is a rather stark difference between what epidemiologists seem to say, and what virologists seem to say. Specifically, I've started listening to these virology podcasts, This Week In Virology. They're starting to convince me that maybe the epidemiologists are too alarmist. They tend to get all the headlines in our spectacle-hungry media.


Yes, a handful of epidemiologists making lot of noise, but if virologists were spot on, why are we finding ourselves pants down with every variant?

How exactly have we been “caught with our pants down?”

I truly believe that our curves would look the same, if not worse, if we had the variants or not. Possibly worse, since without the variants, the governments wouldn’t have that scare tactic available to them.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:50 am

aerolimani wrote:
How exactly have we been “caught with our pants down?”

I truly believe that our curves would look the same, if not worse, if we had the variants or not. Possibly worse, since without the variants, the governments wouldn’t have that scare tactic available to them.


Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:06 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
How exactly have we been “caught with our pants down?”

I truly believe that our curves would look the same, if not worse, if we had the variants or not. Possibly worse, since without the variants, the governments wouldn’t have that scare tactic available to them.


Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.

That’s a very alarmist prediction. The epidemiologists scream about the remotely possible, while the virologists quietly say it is very improbable. Variants that contagious are unlikely.

It’s time to stop thinking about herd immunity and covid-zero. With a contagious respiratory virus, those are nearly impossible anyhow, even with the best vaccines. Instead, we need to think about how to manage covid-background, because that’s about as good as it’s likely to get, for the foreseeable future.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:50 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
How exactly have we been “caught with our pants down?”

I truly believe that our curves would look the same, if not worse, if we had the variants or not. Possibly worse, since without the variants, the governments wouldn’t have that scare tactic available to them.


Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.


Vaccination rates are not going to hit 70% in at least 15 states in the US...anytime soon. Regardless of what CDC does or doesn't do, the attitudes of people in such places guarantee that there's more healthcare crisis to come in these places.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:53 am

aerolimani wrote:
I'm beginning to observe something in the scientific world. There is a rather stark difference between what epidemiologists seem to say, and what virologists seem to say. Specifically, I've started listening to these virology podcasts, This Week In Virology. They're starting to convince me that maybe the epidemiologists are too alarmist. They tend to get all the headlines in our spectacle-hungry media.


The News Media Down Under is accusing the Govt. of being to Alarmist in Victoria, Australia.

Victorian government using 'ridiculous and inflammatory language' to 'terrify' people according to Victorian Liberal MP Tim Smith

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcFDQQcuqrs
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:32 am

Aaron747 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
How exactly have we been “caught with our pants down?”

I truly believe that our curves would look the same, if not worse, if we had the variants or not. Possibly worse, since without the variants, the governments wouldn’t have that scare tactic available to them.


Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.


Vaccination rates are not going to hit 70% in at least 15 states in the US...anytime soon. Regardless of what CDC does or doesn't do, the attitudes of people in such places guarantee that there's more healthcare crisis to come in these places.

It isn't just 17 states.
Look at the high density areas of SanFrancisco, Los Angeles, and New York City that will be fertile breeding grounds for new variants.
https://abc7news.com/california-vaccina ... /10560392/
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/cov ... cines.page

All those areas with below 40% vaccination will spread the Delta variant faster than the original virus (supposedly it spreads 2.6 times faster as per prior links).

Interesting times ahead. If I could get my youngest child vaccinated, I wouldn't worry and would just let evolution occur. However, until there is a child's vaccine, us parents will have concerns.

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:52 am

lightsaber wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.


Vaccination rates are not going to hit 70% in at least 15 states in the US...anytime soon. Regardless of what CDC does or doesn't do, the attitudes of people in such places guarantee that there's more healthcare crisis to come in these places.

It isn't just 17 states.
Look at the high density areas of SanFrancisco, Los Angeles, and New York City that will be fertile breeding grounds for new variants.
https://abc7news.com/california-vaccina ... /10560392/
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/cov ... cines.page

All those areas with below 40% vaccination will spread the Delta variant faster than the original virus (supposedly it spreads 2.6 times faster as per prior links).

Interesting times ahead. If I could get my youngest child vaccinated, I wouldn't worry and would just let evolution occur. However, until there is a child's vaccine, us parents will have concerns.

Lightsaber

Actually, with current situation of vaccination, even 70% won't be safe, because the percentage assume unvaccinated people are evenly spreaded across an area and everyone have just as likely chance to interact with each other. But when unvaccinated like-minded individuals come together, there are obviously less than sufficient immunity betweem them, and when people of these types continue doing such interaction then it will certainly lead to outbreak in those groups, be it school, neighbors, churches, communities, or whatever
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:10 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
How exactly have we been “caught with our pants down?”

I truly believe that our curves would look the same, if not worse, if we had the variants or not. Possibly worse, since without the variants, the governments wouldn’t have that scare tactic available to them.


Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.


So what do we do then?

Stay home and live in fear for the rest of our lives?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:19 am

lightsaber wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.


Vaccination rates are not going to hit 70% in at least 15 states in the US...anytime soon. Regardless of what CDC does or doesn't do, the attitudes of people in such places guarantee that there's more healthcare crisis to come in these places.

It isn't just 17 states.
Look at the high density areas of SanFrancisco, Los Angeles, and New York City that will be fertile breeding grounds for new variants.
https://abc7news.com/california-vaccina ... /10560392/
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/cov ... cines.page

All those areas with below 40% vaccination will spread the Delta variant faster than the original virus (supposedly it spreads 2.6 times faster as per prior links).

Interesting times ahead. If I could get my youngest child vaccinated, I wouldn't worry and would just let evolution occur. However, until there is a child's vaccine, us parents will have concerns.

Lightsaber


I hadn't fully considered that - the stark disparity between some neighboring counties/ZIP codes is alarming. What a clusterfuck. :shakehead:
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:20 am

Francoflier wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
How exactly have we been “caught with our pants down?”

I truly believe that our curves would look the same, if not worse, if we had the variants or not. Possibly worse, since without the variants, the governments wouldn’t have that scare tactic available to them.


Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.


So what do we do then?

Stay home and live in fear for the rest of our lives?


Fortunately or unfortunately, fear is irrelevant. This is about socioeconomic functions being able to run smoothly without interruptions.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:45 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.


So what do we do then?

Stay home and live in fear for the rest of our lives?


Fortunately or unfortunately, fear is irrelevant. This is about socioeconomic functions being able to run smoothly without interruptions.


Those interruptions to socio-economic functions are directly linked to fear, as demonstrated by the varying risk apetite in various countries which has dictated very different responses to Covid in different places.

Covid will not go away and even a fully vaccinated population will see some cases of severe Covid-related illness and deaths.
Preserving enough healthcare capacity to treat everyone is paramount, but in many places this is not an issue anymore. Vaccines are effective enough to allow for normal life given a large enough uptake. After that, society can not tolerate being held hostage to those who refuse vaccination once available to them.
Otherwise, we are all stuck in an endless loop with variants, waves and never-ending restrictions.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:51 am

Francoflier wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

So what do we do then?

Stay home and live in fear for the rest of our lives?


Fortunately or unfortunately, fear is irrelevant. This is about socioeconomic functions being able to run smoothly without interruptions.


Those interruptions to socio-economic functions are directly linked to fear, as demonstrated by the varying risk apetite in various countries which has dictated very different responses to Covid in different places.

Covid will not go away and even a fully vaccinated population will see some cases of severe Covid-related illness and deaths.
Preserving enough healthcare capacity to treat everyone is paramount, but in many places this is not an issue anymore. Vaccines are effective enough to allow for normal life given a large enough uptake. After that, society can not tolerate being held hostage to those who refuse vaccination once available to them.
Otherwise, we are all stuck in an endless loop with variants, waves and never-ending restrictions.


Agreed on all points, but the primary discussion here is the reality that vaccine uptake is not reaching required thresholds fast enough. Aggressive variants are on the loose and the vaccine resistant crowd still consists of millions who will overwhelm the healthcare system again without mitigation.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:46 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Agreed on all points, but the primary discussion here is the reality that vaccine uptake is not reaching required thresholds fast enough. Aggressive variants are on the loose and the vaccine resistant crowd still consists of millions who will overwhelm the healthcare system again without mitigation.


To be brutally and cynically honest, I don't care much for those willingly unvaccinated who may end up in refrigerated trailers...
This is why one of the 'incentive' I would like to see is reduced Covid-related medical coverage for those who refuse the vaccine with no valid reason.

fallap wrote:
Got my first Covid-19 test today during the whole pandemic. Was negative, which is to be expected for a healthy 30 year old male.


Being a healthy 30 year old does not prevent you from being infected with Covid and testing positive. It only reduces your chances of suffering from its symptoms.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:12 am

Francoflier wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Agreed on all points, but the primary discussion here is the reality that vaccine uptake is not reaching required thresholds fast enough. Aggressive variants are on the loose and the vaccine resistant crowd still consists of millions who will overwhelm the healthcare system again without mitigation.


To be brutally and cynically honest, I don't care much for those willingly unvaccinated who may end up in refrigerated trailers...
This is why one of the 'incentive' I would like to see is reduced Covid-related medical coverage for those who refuse the vaccine with no valid reason.


In all fairness, that would be a reasonable outcome for sure. But implementing anything like that in the US would only further foment division.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:51 am

Francoflier wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
How exactly have we been “caught with our pants down?”

I truly believe that our curves would look the same, if not worse, if we had the variants or not. Possibly worse, since without the variants, the governments wouldn’t have that scare tactic available to them.


Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.


So what do we do then?

Stay home and live in fear for the rest of our lives?


Goal is to keep transmission to minimal until required % of people are vaccinated. Doesn't mean lockdown or shutting down economy.

Everything CDC doing putting more pressure on vaccination drive, while creating a fertile breeding grounds.

Keep in mind, vaccinated people may not die (debatable because of sample size), they definitely get infected and transmit to others vaccinated and unvaccs.

There are millions vaccinated but still immunocompromised. Are they safe unmasked at family gatherings? I have couple of friends one on steroids for some illness and another uses CPAP every day. Both are vaccinated but walking around without any mask. Making it a point to interact with anyone claims vaccinated without masks. Because CDC said so.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 11:47 am

Francoflier wrote:
To be brutally and cynically honest, I don't care much for those willingly unvaccinated who may end up in refrigerated trailers...
This is why one of the 'incentive' I would like to see is reduced Covid-related medical coverage for those who refuse the vaccine with no valid reason.

I care because we still cannot vaccinate < age 12 kids and they can get the lung scaring.
I would have your attitude if that was possible. Perhaps because I live in a very well vaccinated zip code. Oh, I work with unvaccinated from a poorly vaccinated zip code, so I won't be immune, but at least I can take precautions.

The doctors and nurses are starting to not care as so few of the new patients were not able to avoid this. Anecdotal evidence I'm seeing is doctors and nurses are trying to get out of the coronavirus wards as it is just needles suffering.

Lightsaber
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 12, 2021 1:39 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
I'm beginning to observe something in the scientific world. There is a rather stark difference between what epidemiologists seem to say, and what virologists seem to say. Specifically, I've started listening to these virology podcasts, This Week In Virology. They're starting to convince me that maybe the epidemiologists are too alarmist. They tend to get all the headlines in our spectacle-hungry media.


The News Media Down Under is accusing the Govt. of being to Alarmist in Victoria, Australia.

Victorian government using 'ridiculous and inflammatory language' to 'terrify' people according to Victorian Liberal MP Tim Smith

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcFDQQcuqrs


So suprising that the Murdoch media is promoting dissent against the current Victorian Labor government /s.

Although as a New South Welshman I see a grain of truth, I also understand the widesprread derision with which this was greeted in the non-Murdoch media and by the general public. There ha has been some overreach in health statements during the current Victorian lockdown.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 12, 2021 4:01 am

fallap wrote:
Got my first Covid-19 test today during the whole pandemic. Was negative, which is to be expected for a healthy 30 year old male.

A healthy 30 years old have less chance of turning into severe case or death, but the probability of infection isn't significantly lower than other age group, according to my knowledge
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 12, 2021 4:35 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Goal is to keep transmission to minimal until required % of people are vaccinated. Doesn't mean lockdown or shutting down economy.

Everything CDC doing putting more pressure on vaccination drive, while creating a fertile breeding grounds.

Keep in mind, vaccinated people may not die (debatable because of sample size), they definitely get infected and transmit to others vaccinated and unvaccs.

There are millions vaccinated but still immunocompromised. Are they safe unmasked at family gatherings? I have couple of friends one on steroids for some illness and another uses CPAP every day. Both are vaccinated but walking around without any mask. Making it a point to interact with anyone claims vaccinated without masks. Because CDC said so.


The issue being that the required % of vaccinated people may never be met.

Vaccinated people do get infected, transmit it and die. They're just orders of magnitude less likely to do so. There is no absolute when dealing with Covid or any other disease. Anything can happen to anyone, it's just a matter of probability.

The trick is to deal with it with at the macro level, not by reacting to outlying cases, which we are very bad at since we naturally tend to draw conclusions from isolated stories and the media is all to happy to exploit this.

In saying that, I agree that the CDC has done nothing to gain itself any respect with the seemingly extreme and unjustified swings in guidance it has gone through. I don't agree with their 'masks not needed anymore' rule either. I'm not sure whether they did it as a way to incentivise people getting vaccinated, but in the end, it only empowered these unvaxxed to drop their masks by lying about their vaccination status. The problem being that unvaxxed and anti-maskers tend to be 2 groups that almost exactly juxtapose each other on a Venn diagram...

Again, no sympathy for the unvaxxed. They are costing society dearly and we should not be held hostage by them.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:44 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Keep in mind, vaccinated people may not die (debatable because of sample size), they definitely get infected and transmit to others vaccinated and unvaccs.

The key is to use vaccine to lower the transmission per patient rate to below 1 so the virus couldn't spread further
There are millions vaccinated but still immunocompromised. Are they safe unmasked at family gatherings? I have couple of friends one on steroids for some illness and another uses CPAP every day. Both are vaccinated but walking around without any mask. Making it a point to interact with anyone claims vaccinated without masks. Because CDC said so.

Immunocompromised are like less that 1% of the whole population according to my understanding. When rest of society are vaccinated they could be protected through herd immunity of overall reduced transmission level arpund them. But the question is when is the appropriate level of immunity level
 
ltbewr
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:23 am

Where I live in New Jersey, although vaccinated persons don't need to wear a mask in indoor places like stores, I have observed many are still doing so. Staff are still wearing masks, plexiglass barriers are still in place. While some of those who continue to wear masks may be un-vaccinated for personal, health or psychological reasons, some may continue to do so out of habit, have high risk factors (age, respiratory or other major health problems), the new variants, too many others not vaccinated.
 
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fallap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 12, 2021 2:24 pm

c933103 wrote:
fallap wrote:
Got my first Covid-19 test today during the whole pandemic. Was negative, which is to be expected for a healthy 30 year old male.

A healthy 30 years old have less chance of turning into severe case or death, but the probability of infection isn't significantly lower than other age group, according to my knowledge


What I find curious if that with my health deteriorating massively as a consequence of the inability to frequent the gyms due to the past lockdowns in Denmark, I will ceteris paribus stand a higher chance of it turning into a severe case :/
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 12, 2021 2:42 pm

aerolimani wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
How exactly have we been “caught with our pants down?”

I truly believe that our curves would look the same, if not worse, if we had the variants or not. Possibly worse, since without the variants, the governments wouldn’t have that scare tactic available to them.


Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.

That’s a very alarmist prediction. The epidemiologists scream about the remotely possible, while the virologists quietly say it is very improbable. Variants that contagious are unlikely.

It’s time to stop thinking about herd immunity and covid-zero. With a contagious respiratory virus, those are nearly impossible anyhow, even with the best vaccines. Instead, we need to think about how to manage covid-background, because that’s about as good as it’s likely to get, for the foreseeable future.


I agree that the constant threat of variants is becoming a bit boy who cried wolf scenario, especially as boosters that tackle the variants of concern are being developed for a fall/winter deployment. We're going to be ok.

While this virus is bad for some its not the virus particles itself that is dangerous to speak of, much of it is how are body reacts. Its a novel virus that has tools to evade the human immune system which means it has the ability to replicate far more than other standard infections before the alarm bells go off in the body. This creates this high viral load that makes this thing so contagious and aerosolized which is why you are the most contagious before getting sick. You feeling sick are the alarm bells and the viral load will go down from there.
There is simply more of it out there than other infections that we encounter regularly. This also creates the cytokine storm (the immune system overreacting and attacking health tissue) which I reckon is the cause of much of the long haul symptoms and deaths. This was also seen during the Spanish Flu.

However now that we have vaccines, the immune system gets trained to attack covid and you either get it very mild or no symptoms at all. I have read articles that previous exposure to Covid and even the 33% protection from one dose is enough to keep you out of hospital even if you get the Delta variant.

I also agree that its time to stop thinking this will be eradicated anytime soon if ever. Its going to continue to circulate and will be endemic and will be the 5th coronavirus that will simply cause a common cold. Even the common cold can kill people from time to time and there is no such thing as a risk free life. The fear mongering from the media and many in public health is that this thing is a ticking timebomb to a new pandemic is right around the corner. Another Pandemic might be but it will be something else entirely.

Coronaviruses do not mutate at the rate of something like influenza where the immune system all of a sudden is going to not recognize it and fortunately none of these variants seem to be any more virulent than the original virus.

https://www.livescience.com/uk-coronavi ... erity.html
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:35 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Wait until next wave.

You cannot beat a R0-6 VOC just with vaccination. Period.

As some one said, CDC guidance is fan fiction based on meta analysis, not public health guidance based on detailed scientific studies.

That’s a very alarmist prediction. The epidemiologists scream about the remotely possible, while the virologists quietly say it is very improbable. Variants that contagious are unlikely.

It’s time to stop thinking about herd immunity and covid-zero. With a contagious respiratory virus, those are nearly impossible anyhow, even with the best vaccines. Instead, we need to think about how to manage covid-background, because that’s about as good as it’s likely to get, for the foreseeable future.


I agree that the constant threat of variants is becoming a bit boy who cried wolf scenario, especially as boosters that tackle the variants of concern are being developed for a fall/winter deployment. We're going to be ok.

While this virus is bad for some its not the virus particles itself that is dangerous to speak of, much of it is how are body reacts. Its a novel virus that has tools to evade the human immune system which means it has the ability to replicate far more than other standard infections before the alarm bells go off in the body. This creates this high viral load that makes this thing so contagious and aerosolized which is why you are the most contagious before getting sick. You feeling sick are the alarm bells and the viral load will go down from there.
There is simply more of it out there than other infections that we encounter regularly. This also creates the cytokine storm (the immune system overreacting and attacking health tissue) which I reckon is the cause of much of the long haul symptoms and deaths. This was also seen during the Spanish Flu.

However now that we have vaccines, the immune system gets trained to attack covid and you either get it very mild or no symptoms at all. I have read articles that previous exposure to Covid and even the 33% protection from one dose is enough to keep you out of hospital even if you get the Delta variant.

I also agree that its time to stop thinking this will be eradicated anytime soon if ever. Its going to continue to circulate and will be endemic and will be the 5th coronavirus that will simply cause a common cold. Even the common cold can kill people from time to time and there is no such thing as a risk free life. The fear mongering from the media and many in public health is that this thing is a ticking timebomb to a new pandemic is right around the corner. Another Pandemic might be but it will be something else entirely.

Coronaviruses do not mutate at the rate of something like influenza where the immune system all of a sudden is going to not recognize it and fortunately none of these variants seem to be any more virulent than the original virus.

https://www.livescience.com/uk-coronavi ... erity.html

I just had a pediatric ICU doctor rage at... well anyone and I was the ear because he has a child dying and he cannot accept that, because the parents wouldn't get vaccinated. The Delta variant is impacting younger

The UK, an incredibly well vaccinated country, already has 90% of cases the Delta:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ases-in-uk
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ases-in-uk

There are also differences by age, with infection levels rising in younger adults up to 34 years old, and those aged 50 to 69 years old. As with the PHE report, the ONS data suggests the Delta variant is now dominant in England.

My relative is a lead coronavirus doctor and they've had to stand up a pediatric coronavirus ward. Every time they stand up a ward it means some other medical service isn't being performed as doctors and nurses come from somewhere. The doctors and nurses are frustrated as they need vacations; they're exhausted.

Coronavirus is mutating, we can agree not at the rate of influenza, but bad enough. Delta spreads much faster. Thankfully the vaccines work.

My relative have dozens of young previously healthy patients with enough lung scarring or nerve damage, they won't ever again do much of a workout again.

Brave up and get vaccinated.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:23 pm

lightsaber wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
That’s a very alarmist prediction. The epidemiologists scream about the remotely possible, while the virologists quietly say it is very improbable. Variants that contagious are unlikely.

It’s time to stop thinking about herd immunity and covid-zero. With a contagious respiratory virus, those are nearly impossible anyhow, even with the best vaccines. Instead, we need to think about how to manage covid-background, because that’s about as good as it’s likely to get, for the foreseeable future.


I agree that the constant threat of variants is becoming a bit boy who cried wolf scenario, especially as boosters that tackle the variants of concern are being developed for a fall/winter deployment. We're going to be ok.

While this virus is bad for some its not the virus particles itself that is dangerous to speak of, much of it is how are body reacts. Its a novel virus that has tools to evade the human immune system which means it has the ability to replicate far more than other standard infections before the alarm bells go off in the body. This creates this high viral load that makes this thing so contagious and aerosolized which is why you are the most contagious before getting sick. You feeling sick are the alarm bells and the viral load will go down from there.
There is simply more of it out there than other infections that we encounter regularly. This also creates the cytokine storm (the immune system overreacting and attacking health tissue) which I reckon is the cause of much of the long haul symptoms and deaths. This was also seen during the Spanish Flu.

However now that we have vaccines, the immune system gets trained to attack covid and you either get it very mild or no symptoms at all. I have read articles that previous exposure to Covid and even the 33% protection from one dose is enough to keep you out of hospital even if you get the Delta variant.

I also agree that its time to stop thinking this will be eradicated anytime soon if ever. Its going to continue to circulate and will be endemic and will be the 5th coronavirus that will simply cause a common cold. Even the common cold can kill people from time to time and there is no such thing as a risk free life. The fear mongering from the media and many in public health is that this thing is a ticking timebomb to a new pandemic is right around the corner. Another Pandemic might be but it will be something else entirely.

Coronaviruses do not mutate at the rate of something like influenza where the immune system all of a sudden is going to not recognize it and fortunately none of these variants seem to be any more virulent than the original virus.

https://www.livescience.com/uk-coronavi ... erity.html

I just had a pediatric ICU doctor rage at... well anyone and I was the ear because he has a child dying and he cannot accept that, because the parents wouldn't get vaccinated. The Delta variant is impacting younger

The UK, an incredibly well vaccinated country, already has 90% of cases the Delta:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ases-in-uk
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ases-in-uk

There are also differences by age, with infection levels rising in younger adults up to 34 years old, and those aged 50 to 69 years old. As with the PHE report, the ONS data suggests the Delta variant is now dominant in England.

My relative is a lead coronavirus doctor and they've had to stand up a pediatric coronavirus ward. Every time they stand up a ward it means some other medical service isn't being performed as doctors and nurses come from somewhere. The doctors and nurses are frustrated as they need vacations; they're exhausted.

Coronavirus is mutating, we can agree not at the rate of influenza, but bad enough. Delta spreads much faster. Thankfully the vaccines work.

My relative have dozens of young previously healthy patients with enough lung scarring or nerve damage, they won't ever again do much of a workout again.

Brave up and get vaccinated.

Lightsaber

We’re going to see a higher proportion of kids being hospitalized for the delta variant, because it’s going to become the dominant strain during a time when people 12+ have been fully vaccinated. Remember that evolutionary biologists wil tell you that only a slight advantage is required to become dominant, and virologists will tell you that coronavirus mutations are very unlikely to happen in quantum leaps.

So, percentage-wise, we’re going to see more kids because they are the disproportionately large unvaccinated group. It doesn’t mean that the delta variant is dramatically worse for kids, nor that it spreads dramatically easier. The conditions now are different from the time when the ancestral strain was the only one, and we had no vaccines.

I’m sure that hearing out that ICU paediatrician was not easy. I am sure that after more than a year of this pandemic, they are beyond exhausted. However, in terms of judging what is happening with the delta variant, it’s an anecdote. Only a large pool of data, accounting for all the different circumstances, can tell us anything about the delta variant. And really, only lab studies can tell us for sure, but (*sarcasm alert) I am pretty sure it would be unethical to purposely infect humans.

I write this because I feel that the alarmism needs to end. I am certain that a significant percentage of non-vaxxers have been made extra resistant by the constant “sky is falling” messaging. If the messaging were more pragmatic, I think it would be more effective. But, after more than a year at high alert, it might be too late. Still, I feel strongly that making variants the bogeyman is not the way forward, communication-wise. I feel it would be better just to continue with the same mantra as before. That is, to say, the virus is still out there, it’s still dangerous, and naturally acquired immunity is not this enough.

I do hope that the vaccine studies for under 12’s will be expedited as much as safely possible. I want vaccines available for them, both for their health and for the greater good. Even if statistically they don’t need it as much as everyone else, I think it’s still a good idea to vaccinate them.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:51 pm

aerolimani wrote:
We’re going to see a higher proportion of kids being hospitalized for the delta variant, because it’s going to become the dominant strain during a time when people 12+ have been fully vaccinated. Remember that evolutionary biologists wil tell you that only a slight advantage is required to become dominant, and virologists will tell you that coronavirus mutations are very unlikely to happen in quantum leaps.

So, percentage-wise, we’re going to see more kids because they are the disproportionately large unvaccinated group. It doesn’t mean that the delta variant is dramatically worse for kids, nor that it spreads dramatically easier. The conditions now are different from the time when the ancestral strain was the only one, and we had no vaccines.

I’m sure that hearing out that ICU paediatrician was not easy. I am sure that after more than a year of this pandemic, they are beyond exhausted. However, in terms of judging what is happening with the delta variant, it’s an anecdote. Only a large pool of data, accounting for all the different circumstances, can tell us anything about the delta variant. And really, only lab studies can tell us for sure, but (*sarcasm alert) I am pretty sure it would be unethical to purposely infect humans.

I write this because I feel that the alarmism needs to end. I am certain that a significant percentage of non-vaxxers have been made extra resistant by the constant “sky is falling” messaging. If the messaging were more pragmatic, I think it would be more effective. But, after more than a year at high alert, it might be too late. Still, I feel strongly that making variants the bogeyman is not the way forward, communication-wise. I feel it would be better just to continue with the same mantra as before. That is, to say, the virus is still out there, it’s still dangerous, and naturally acquired immunity is not this enough.

I do hope that the vaccine studies for under 12’s will be expedited as much as safely possible. I want vaccines available for them, both for their health and for the greater good. Even if statistically they don’t need it as much as everyone else, I think it’s still a good idea to vaccinate them.

They never before had children dying in the hospital. While I am very against alarmism myself. But these new strains are different.
Before the children in the hospital for coronavirus... weren't healthy. Now healthy children are.

While I agree on a slight advantage is needed to become the dominant strain, the issue is this strain is much worse than the prior.

We could be more vaccinated and really slow the spread. If a variant dies off because it cannot find enough hosts, that is great!

The hospitals are filling up in my relative's area to the point they cannot provide normal medical care as coronavirus is sapping so many resources. That isn't alarmest, that is resource allocation.

Worse, the doctors and nurses really don't want to forfeit another year of vacations because people chose to be unvaccinated. So they aren't. They're owed two years' worth of summer vacation and they'll take it. It is time for them to spend time with their families too.

I don't know what the solution is. I live in an incredibly highly vaccinated area, so obviously the mindset is to just vaccinate. My older child is vaccinated and so are all her close friends, so we can do playdates.

But what is underplayed is how many people are crippled by coronavirus. My relative has the local military recruiter on speed dial to tell them who signed up but no longer qualifies to join the military.

I personally have long haul nerve damage, very minor, but I wish I could still taste deserts and bacon (I lost my sense of taste of fat).

https://news.yahoo.com/vaccine-passport ... 00615.html

Huh, 70% of those who were in the hospital have long haul symptoms:
https://www.stanforddaily.com/2021/05/2 ... udy-finds/

I had the most minor coronavirus infection. If I hadn't lost my sense of taste (almost completely, but most is back, just not fat).

Once I can get my younger child vaccinated, I don't have to worry about the anti-vax. They chose their path.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
We’re going to see a higher proportion of kids being hospitalized for the delta variant, because it’s going to become the dominant strain during a time when people 12+ have been fully vaccinated. Remember that evolutionary biologists wil tell you that only a slight advantage is required to become dominant, and virologists will tell you that coronavirus mutations are very unlikely to happen in quantum leaps.

So, percentage-wise, we’re going to see more kids because they are the disproportionately large unvaccinated group. It doesn’t mean that the delta variant is dramatically worse for kids, nor that it spreads dramatically easier. The conditions now are different from the time when the ancestral strain was the only one, and we had no vaccines.

I’m sure that hearing out that ICU paediatrician was not easy. I am sure that after more than a year of this pandemic, they are beyond exhausted. However, in terms of judging what is happening with the delta variant, it’s an anecdote. Only a large pool of data, accounting for all the different circumstances, can tell us anything about the delta variant. And really, only lab studies can tell us for sure, but (*sarcasm alert) I am pretty sure it would be unethical to purposely infect humans.

I write this because I feel that the alarmism needs to end. I am certain that a significant percentage of non-vaxxers have been made extra resistant by the constant “sky is falling” messaging. If the messaging were more pragmatic, I think it would be more effective. But, after more than a year at high alert, it might be too late. Still, I feel strongly that making variants the bogeyman is not the way forward, communication-wise. I feel it would be better just to continue with the same mantra as before. That is, to say, the virus is still out there, it’s still dangerous, and naturally acquired immunity is not this enough.

I do hope that the vaccine studies for under 12’s will be expedited as much as safely possible. I want vaccines available for them, both for their health and for the greater good. Even if statistically they don’t need it as much as everyone else, I think it’s still a good idea to vaccinate them.

They never before had children dying in the hospital. While I am very against alarmism myself. But these new strains are different.
Before the children in the hospital for coronavirus... weren't healthy. Now healthy children are.

While I agree on a slight advantage is needed to become the dominant strain, the issue is this strain is much worse than the prior.

We could be more vaccinated and really slow the spread. If a variant dies off because it cannot find enough hosts, that is great!

The hospitals are filling up in my relative's area to the point they cannot provide normal medical care as coronavirus is sapping so many resources. That isn't alarmest, that is resource allocation.

Worse, the doctors and nurses really don't want to forfeit another year of vacations because people chose to be unvaccinated. So they aren't. They're owed two years' worth of summer vacation and they'll take it. It is time for them to spend time with their families too.

I don't know what the solution is. I live in an incredibly highly vaccinated area, so obviously the mindset is to just vaccinate. My older child is vaccinated and so are all her close friends, so we can do playdates.

But what is underplayed is how many people are crippled by coronavirus. My relative has the local military recruiter on speed dial to tell them who signed up but no longer qualifies to join the military.

I personally have long haul nerve damage, very minor, but I wish I could still taste deserts and bacon (I lost my sense of taste of fat).

https://news.yahoo.com/vaccine-passport ... 00615.html

Huh, 70% of those who were in the hospital have long haul symptoms:
https://www.stanforddaily.com/2021/05/2 ... udy-finds/

I had the most minor coronavirus infection. If I hadn't lost my sense of taste (almost completely, but most is back, just not fat).

Once I can get my younger child vaccinated, I don't have to worry about the anti-vax. They chose their path.

Lightsaber

I really am in agreement with you about everything except for the severity of the variants. When I go hunting for information, the best I can find is some epidemiologists pulling some statistics from here or there, comparing them to some other moment in time, and ignoring all the other factors that can affect the spread of a virus. There’s nothing but conjecture, and usually with a bias towards declaring the worst. It makes good headlines.

As to children, there are reports from way back in the pandemic about otherwise healthy children. This one is from way back. April 21, 2020.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/t ... story.html

Again, as we vaccinate more 12+ individuals, but no one under 12, we are going to see an increasing percentage of juvenile cases. To me, that rings true, especially now, when many people are getting together without any contra-COVID safety measures, and their unvaccinated children are with them. Kids are being more exposed now than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic.

Anecdotal: I was at a campground this past weekend. I saw large groups of kids, from unassociated family groups, all playing together, without any supervision, and absolutely zero effort to follow any form of precaution whatsoever. Groups of 30+ kids running around as kids are wont to do.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:58 pm

aerolimani wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
We’re going to see a higher proportion of kids being hospitalized for the delta variant, because it’s going to become the dominant strain during a time when people 12+ have been fully vaccinated. Remember that evolutionary biologists wil tell you that only a slight advantage is required to become dominant, and virologists will tell you that coronavirus mutations are very unlikely to happen in quantum leaps.

So, percentage-wise, we’re going to see more kids because they are the disproportionately large unvaccinated group. It doesn’t mean that the delta variant is dramatically worse for kids, nor that it spreads dramatically easier. The conditions now are different from the time when the ancestral strain was the only one, and we had no vaccines.

I’m sure that hearing out that ICU paediatrician was not easy. I am sure that after more than a year of this pandemic, they are beyond exhausted. However, in terms of judging what is happening with the delta variant, it’s an anecdote. Only a large pool of data, accounting for all the different circumstances, can tell us anything about the delta variant. And really, only lab studies can tell us for sure, but (*sarcasm alert) I am pretty sure it would be unethical to purposely infect humans.

I write this because I feel that the alarmism needs to end. I am certain that a significant percentage of non-vaxxers have been made extra resistant by the constant “sky is falling” messaging. If the messaging were more pragmatic, I think it would be more effective. But, after more than a year at high alert, it might be too late. Still, I feel strongly that making variants the bogeyman is not the way forward, communication-wise. I feel it would be better just to continue with the same mantra as before. That is, to say, the virus is still out there, it’s still dangerous, and naturally acquired immunity is not this enough.

I do hope that the vaccine studies for under 12’s will be expedited as much as safely possible. I want vaccines available for them, both for their health and for the greater good. Even if statistically they don’t need it as much as everyone else, I think it’s still a good idea to vaccinate them.

They never before had children dying in the hospital. While I am very against alarmism myself. But these new strains are different.
Before the children in the hospital for coronavirus... weren't healthy. Now healthy children are.

While I agree on a slight advantage is needed to become the dominant strain, the issue is this strain is much worse than the prior.

We could be more vaccinated and really slow the spread. If a variant dies off because it cannot find enough hosts, that is great!

The hospitals are filling up in my relative's area to the point they cannot provide normal medical care as coronavirus is sapping so many resources. That isn't alarmest, that is resource allocation.

Worse, the doctors and nurses really don't want to forfeit another year of vacations because people chose to be unvaccinated. So they aren't. They're owed two years' worth of summer vacation and they'll take it. It is time for them to spend time with their families too.

I don't know what the solution is. I live in an incredibly highly vaccinated area, so obviously the mindset is to just vaccinate. My older child is vaccinated and so are all her close friends, so we can do playdates.

But what is underplayed is how many people are crippled by coronavirus. My relative has the local military recruiter on speed dial to tell them who signed up but no longer qualifies to join the military.

I personally have long haul nerve damage, very minor, but I wish I could still taste deserts and bacon (I lost my sense of taste of fat).

https://news.yahoo.com/vaccine-passport ... 00615.html

Huh, 70% of those who were in the hospital have long haul symptoms:
https://www.stanforddaily.com/2021/05/2 ... udy-finds/

I had the most minor coronavirus infection. If I hadn't lost my sense of taste (almost completely, but most is back, just not fat).

Once I can get my younger child vaccinated, I don't have to worry about the anti-vax. They chose their path.

Lightsaber

I really am in agreement with you about everything except for the severity of the variants. When I go hunting for information, the best I can find is some epidemiologists pulling some statistics from here or there, comparing them to some other moment in time, and ignoring all the other factors that can affect the spread of a virus. There’s nothing but conjecture, and usually with a bias towards declaring the worst. It makes good headlines.

As to children, there are reports from way back in the pandemic about otherwise healthy children. This one is from way back. April 21, 2020.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/t ... story.html

Again, as we vaccinate more 12+ individuals, but no one under 12, we are going to see an increasing percentage of juvenile cases. To me, that rings true, especially now, when many people are getting together without any contra-COVID safety measures, and their unvaccinated children are with them. Kids are being more exposed now than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic.

Anecdotal: I was at a campground this past weekend. I saw large groups of kids, from unassociated family groups, all playing together, without any supervision, and absolutely zero effort to follow any form of precaution whatsoever. Groups of 30+ kids running around as kids are wont to do.

We can agree to what we agree on.

As I posted before, I'm going to be chicken little for a month. My relative is in Mesa County Colorado which is a small population area going through tough times. Yes, small numbers, but the flood into the hospital has been bad.

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

But the assumption is Delta spreads faster and is *far* more likely to hospitalize someone. In particular kids
https://www.channel3000.com/covid-19-va ... cials-say/
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/0 ... u-j01.html

I can only go by anecdotal. My relative's hospital has stood up a pediatric coronavirus ward and that wasn't needed nor justified before. (They need a minimum number of patients as standing up a ward takes a minimum staffing of 5+ doctors and a 12+ nurses to go round the clock for weeks.)

UV kills the virus wonderfully, which is why I express two concerns for rural areas (lower risk) and high density urban areas. My friends in the medical community see no more cases from outdoor decently spaced restaurant seating. I was shocked how little spread there was last summer and that indicates UV does a great job mitigating this virus, at least in my opinion.

But I am near... poorly vaccinated neighborhoods. The problem is the mapping says "total population," but it is by "eligible population." In other words, playing with the denominator (you have to go back a page, 2nd link, to find the subtle difference). I believe the new variants travel fast enough that the lightly vaccinated areas will be hard hit:
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/ ... ce/MapView
https://covid19.ca.gov/vaccination-progress-data/

I agree children weren't impacted early. My relative is in a hospital where they only had their first pediatric coronavirus death a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, they have identified other cases that are highly likely to be fatal (they are trying everything they can). This is why I have a different opinion. My relatives and friends on the front lines are seeing it far worse in kids this time. I cannot provide a link as this is anecdotal opinion, but they have far more kids in the hospital, far worse in the ICU, and kids progressing like they were 80 year olds with the Alpha variant.

I follow the dashboard as I like numbers over opinions. They are at 45 hospitalizations vs. prior peak of 50. However this time the other departments will not give up ICU beds as there weren't enough the last time for some specialties. If you look at the dashboard, in particular the "Hospital Capacity" meter, they're strained. To keep open hospital beds, they are jumping through hoops. e.g., a local hotel gets coronavirus patients as soon as they can be discharged but are still contagious.

So let us see what happens over the next four weeks.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:26 am

But… how many new children’s cases are happening because variants might be more contagious and affect children more seriously, and how many cases are occurring because we are no longer protecting our children the way we were up until now? With dramatically easing restrictions everywhere, I unvaccinated kids are being exposed like never before. It’s very possible, or even probable (if you listen to virologists), that these social factors are the reason for the uptick in serious children’s cases, and not because of variants.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:53 am

aerolimani wrote:
But… how many new children’s cases are happening because variants might be more contagious and affect children more seriously, and how many cases are occurring because we are no longer protecting our children the way we were up until now? With dramatically easing restrictions everywhere, I unvaccinated kids are being exposed like never before. It’s very possible, or even probable (if you listen to virologists), that these social factors are the reason for the uptick in serious children’s cases, and not because of variants.

Recall states remained in school last year. They didn't see bad Covid19 in the kids. It was minor. While the behavior is more widespread, playdates were happening.

Also, the severity of the pediatric cases being reported is far worse. My relative's hospital has zero pediatric deaths before May of this year. Now they've had one in May and have several children on watch that they unfortunately think will die. The variants spreads much faster and per my prior links is much more likely to hospitalize. When one considers the population unvaccinated is far less fragile and thus less likely to be hospitalized, that to myself means a much more aggressive viral strain.

We'll know better in a month.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:00 am

aerolimani wrote:
But… how many new children’s cases are happening because variants might be more contagious and affect children more seriously, and how many cases are occurring because we are no longer protecting our children the way we were up until now? With dramatically easing restrictions everywhere, I unvaccinated kids are being exposed like never before. It’s very possible, or even probable (if you listen to virologists), that these social factors are the reason for the uptick in serious children’s cases, and not because of variants.

When a family member is infected it is quite likely for the virus to be transmitted to rest of the family including the kids.
In places like Japan, by now since the pandemic start there are some 60,000 kids age under 20 who have been confirmed infected by the novel coronavirus but so far the number of death in such age group is still zero, and until a few days ago the India-originated variant haven't been found to spread to kids yet. So if children are dying at higher rate than say 1 in 10000 then it would seems to be quite likely that children are being affected more severely by the new variant than older strains.
 
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c933103
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Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:29 am

The Delta variant is 60% more transmissible than the Alpha (Kent) variant, new data from Public Health England (PHE) shows. (News from three days ago)
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-11/cov ... data-finds
 
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aerolimani
Posts: 1460
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:46 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 14, 2021 4:35 am

c933103 wrote:
The Delta variant is 60% more transmissible than the Alpha (Kent) variant, new data from Public Health England (PHE) shows. (News from three days ago)
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-11/cov ... data-finds

Here's what the PHE actually says:

New research from PHE suggests that the Delta variant is associated with an approximately 60% increased risk of household transmission compared to the Alpha variant. Growth rates for Delta cases are high across the regions, with regional estimates for doubling time ranging from 4.5 days to 11.5 days


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/conf ... fied-in-uk

Please note that they use the word "suggests." Increased transmissibility is not proven. Plus, in their reporting, I can't find any consideration for other factors which can very easily influence rates of transmission. I'm not saying that this suggestion of 60% greater transmission isn't possible, but it doesn't line up with what virologists (that I've listened to) say, based on their lab research of other coronaviruses (prior to SARS-CoV2).

More importantly, it's bad science to for the media to publish all these suggestions/maybes/could-be/might-be statements as "NEW DELTA VARIANT IS 60% MORE TRANSMISSIBLE." And, in my opinion, it's bad public policy for politicians to do the same. Making chicken little type statements about the variants is undermining efforts to get people vaccinated. There's an increasing portion of the population that believes the government is enjoying controlling people's lives to this degree, and that the gov't is getting power hungry, and hyping up the risk of variants to maintain their grip. I'm not saying that this thinking is logical. I don't think that's what's happening, or at least it's not the whole story. But… there are people thinking like this, and their numbers are growing.

One thing I will say about governments is that some created poor policies, and are now caught having to continue with these policies waaaay longer than they ought to. They prefer to continue, rather than admit they were poor policies to begin with, and poorly enacted to boot. The Canadian hotel quarantine system comes to mind. The government's own advisory panel has already said that the system was poorly designed, ineffective, and poorly implemented. And yet… the hotel quarantine continues. In fact, the only response to the report was for the government to double the fines of people who decide not to participate.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federa ... -1.6043473

If you can believe it, even Prime Minister Trudeau is quarantining in a hotel, upon his return from the G7 conference. It's the most absurd piece of political theatre I can imagine. Of course, he doesn't have to suffer the risk of being stuck in one of the packed-to-the-rafters-with-other travellers government approved hotels. He is in another hotel, and surely the entire floor has been cleared of all other residents, if not the entire hotel.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pm-trud ... -1.5459814
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:27 pm

aerolimani wrote:
c933103 wrote:
The Delta variant is 60% more transmissible than the Alpha (Kent) variant, new data from Public Health England (PHE) shows. (News from three days ago)
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-11/cov ... data-finds

Here's what the PHE actually says:

New research from PHE suggests that the Delta variant is associated with an approximately 60% increased risk of household transmission compared to the Alpha variant. Growth rates for Delta cases are high across the regions, with regional estimates for doubling time ranging from 4.5 days to 11.5 days


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/conf ... fied-in-uk

Please note that they use the word "suggests." Increased transmissibility is not proven. Plus, in their reporting, I can't find any consideration for other factors which can very easily influence rates of transmission. I'm not saying that this suggestion of 60% greater transmission isn't possible, but it doesn't line up with what virologists (that I've listened to) say, based on their lab research of other coronaviruses (prior to SARS-CoV2).

More importantly, it's bad science to for the media to publish all these suggestions/maybes/could-be/might-be statements as "NEW DELTA VARIANT IS 60% MORE TRANSMISSIBLE." And, in my opinion, it's bad public policy for politicians to do the same. Making chicken little type statements about the variants is undermining efforts to get people vaccinated. There's an increasing portion of the population that believes the government is enjoying controlling people's lives to this degree, and that the gov't is getting power hungry, and hyping up the risk of variants to maintain their grip. I'm not saying that this thinking is logical. I don't think that's what's happening, or at least it's not the whole story. But… there are people thinking like this, and their numbers are growing.


Hospitizations are up with the variant:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/delt ... 8.html?amp

People who contract the Delta variant of Covid, first identified in India, are about twice as likely to end up in hospital compared with the Alpha Kent strain, UK researchers have revealed.

China reports people are getting sicker faster:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/china-do ... 09187.html

All indications are with Delta:
1. Transmission is faster
2. Younger people get sick
3. More are hospitalized

I agree all the data is preliminary. So I ask my friends in the hospitals what is going on. Here in greater Los Angeles, it is quieting down. In Mesa county Colorado, hectic, almost at record patient levels (not quite). In the UK, cases are going up amazingly fast while US cases flatline:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~GBR

I happen to agree the government is being more controlling than required. However, that goes off my main point that the Delta variant is worthy of concern.

If you look at what increases or didn't increase business for the hospital, outside activities didn't, inside crowded did (bars). The outside patio bars didn't create a bad problem, so there is a compromise.

We'll see. California opens up tomorrow. With this slow virus, one doesn't see the results of actions for weeks.
It takes 4 to 12 days for an infection to be detectable and about 20% (see the dashboard I linked before) are asymptomatic.

An infected person then takes time to get tested.

Then more time to see a doctor/hospital.

My concern is there is a time lag of 3 to 5 weeks between action and then a sudden surge at the hospitals. If more adults were vaccinated, the disease would be so slowed, it would be a non-issue. But right now at my relative's hospital, they are, every day, seeing if they can continue normal preventive care or if they must stop to divert doctors and nurses to another coronavirus ward. Not doing preventive care means problems later on (ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure). They literally are waiting to see who they can discharge to a hotel (or die) to see if they have enough coronavirus ward beds so they can clear out the ER; that is not a good place to be for a hospital.

So for myself, I'm quite convinced this variant is faster and infecting more kids as my front line contacts just happen to be in the hot zone. I fully realize my perception is distorted as my front line contacts are at the start of wave 5.

Should we open up more? Yes. However, one of my family's favorite restaurants has multiple unvaccinated waitresses, so we won't go there. Another we only eat outside, so that will be weather dependent.

Do I want my gym open? Yes!!! I'll go (masked). The issue is the new surges happen faster despite a well vaccinated population. I realize we disagree on this. Unfortunately, we won't have data for a month, I really want to be proven wrong.

Lightsaber
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3453
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:45 am

lightsaber wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
c933103 wrote:
The Delta variant is 60% more transmissible than the Alpha (Kent) variant, new data from Public Health England (PHE) shows. (News from three days ago)
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-11/cov ... data-finds

Here's what the PHE actually says:

New research from PHE suggests that the Delta variant is associated with an approximately 60% increased risk of household transmission compared to the Alpha variant. Growth rates for Delta cases are high across the regions, with regional estimates for doubling time ranging from 4.5 days to 11.5 days


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/conf ... fied-in-uk

Please note that they use the word "suggests." Increased transmissibility is not proven. Plus, in their reporting, I can't find any consideration for other factors which can very easily influence rates of transmission. I'm not saying that this suggestion of 60% greater transmission isn't possible, but it doesn't line up with what virologists (that I've listened to) say, based on their lab research of other coronaviruses (prior to SARS-CoV2).

More importantly, it's bad science to for the media to publish all these suggestions/maybes/could-be/might-be statements as "NEW DELTA VARIANT IS 60% MORE TRANSMISSIBLE." And, in my opinion, it's bad public policy for politicians to do the same. Making chicken little type statements about the variants is undermining efforts to get people vaccinated. There's an increasing portion of the population that believes the government is enjoying controlling people's lives to this degree, and that the gov't is getting power hungry, and hyping up the risk of variants to maintain their grip. I'm not saying that this thinking is logical. I don't think that's what's happening, or at least it's not the whole story. But… there are people thinking like this, and their numbers are growing.


Hospitizations are up with the variant:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/delt ... 8.html?amp

People who contract the Delta variant of Covid, first identified in India, are about twice as likely to end up in hospital compared with the Alpha Kent strain, UK researchers have revealed.

China reports people are getting sicker faster:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/china-do ... 09187.html

All indications are with Delta:
1. Transmission is faster
2. Younger people get sick
3. More are hospitalized

I agree all the data is preliminary. So I ask my friends in the hospitals what is going on. Here in greater Los Angeles, it is quieting down. In Mesa county Colorado, hectic, almost at record patient levels (not quite). In the UK, cases are going up amazingly fast while US cases flatline:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~GBR

I happen to agree the government is being more controlling than required. However, that goes off my main point that the Delta variant is worthy of concern.

If you look at what increases or didn't increase business for the hospital, outside activities didn't, inside crowded did (bars). The outside patio bars didn't create a bad problem, so there is a compromise.

We'll see. California opens up tomorrow. With this slow virus, one doesn't see the results of actions for weeks.
It takes 4 to 12 days for an infection to be detectable and about 20% (see the dashboard I linked before) are asymptomatic.

An infected person then takes time to get tested.

Then more time to see a doctor/hospital.

My concern is there is a time lag of 3 to 5 weeks between action and then a sudden surge at the hospitals. If more adults were vaccinated, the disease would be so slowed, it would be a non-issue. But right now at my relative's hospital, they are, every day, seeing if they can continue normal preventive care or if they must stop to divert doctors and nurses to another coronavirus ward. Not doing preventive care means problems later on (ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure). They literally are waiting to see who they can discharge to a hotel (or die) to see if they have enough coronavirus ward beds so they can clear out the ER; that is not a good place to be for a hospital.

So for myself, I'm quite convinced this variant is faster and infecting more kids as my front line contacts just happen to be in the hot zone. I fully realize my perception is distorted as my front line contacts are at the start of wave 5.

Should we open up more? Yes. However, one of my family's favorite restaurants has multiple unvaccinated waitresses, so we won't go there. Another we only eat outside, so that will be weather dependent.

Do I want my gym open? Yes!!! I'll go (masked). The issue is the new surges happen faster despite a well vaccinated population. I realize we disagree on this. Unfortunately, we won't have data for a month, I really want to be proven wrong.

Lightsaber

Really hard to say how this is going to play out in the US. Vaccination rates are slowing here to be sure…we’ll likely hit 50% fully vaxed in short order, but then also have likely had around 30% of the entire population previously infected by conservative estimates. Delta variant might be something that hits in wildly varying degrees based on geography here with some regions seeing concerning surges while others with high vax/infection rates relatively unaffected.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:05 pm

California is reopening today:
https://ktla.com/news/california/califo ... tions/amp/

Just in time for summer, California wants to send the message that life in the Golden State is getting much closer to normal. The economy is fully reopening for the first time in 15 months and people can largely return to pre-pandemic lifestyles. Fans can cheer mask-less at Dodgers and Giants games. Disneyland is throwing its doors open to all tourists after allowing just California residents. People can pack indoor bars and nightclubs from the Sunset Strip in Los Angeles to the Castro in San Francisco.

My friends and relatives in the hospitals note that outdoor dining (including bars), hiking, doesn't increase their workload. But oh boy can indoor bars.

Mesa County Colorado had to stand back up their coronavirus ward after shuttering it for 3 weeks due to lack of patients on May 29 (Saturday before Memorial day).

Let us see how the undervaccinated areas perform.

Lightsaber
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:00 pm

A question about healthcare and insurance in the USA. Could an insurer refuse to cover treatment for COVID-19 if the client has refused vaccination, and has no legitimate reason for refusing?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:16 pm

More data on Delta,
64% more transmittable than Alpha, so the ~2.6x more transmittable than the original Wuhan variant.

The chance of hospitizations keeps going up, now considered twice as likely to hospitilize. I believe that is because of all the pediatric cases, so unusual for coronavirus.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/0 ... -work/amp/

So with just over half vaccinated, but more if the vulnerable, but a lack of ... good behavior, I think we'll have a risk of overload hospitals.

My relative's area is touch and go as to the need to cancel other medical services to staff up a 3rd ward due to the nasty Delta variant. Twice a day they decide no, cases are down by one, but one family coming in could force the decision as warm weather icu cases (ATV, rock climbing, motorcycle injuries) are doing their normal seasonal surge competing for staff/beds (not so much in 2020 due to closed rental centers).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

I personally am wondering when we will see an outbreak in one of the undervaccinated urban high density areas. There are only 154k people in the area I have insight. It will be much more interesting when a high density urban area spikes. Let us not forget hospitizations tend to lag infections by many weeks (going from memory 4 or 5 weeks), so we need to stay ahead of impacted hospitals.

Aerolimani,
Laws have shifted that make it difficult to refuse insurance. But like smoking, scuba diving, sky diving, and certain other life choices, they may increase premiums.

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
Posts: 5819
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
More data on Delta,
64% more transmittable than Alpha, so the ~2.6x more transmittable than the original Wuhan variant.

The chance of hospitizations keeps going up, now considered twice as likely to hospitilize. I believe that is because of all the pediatric cases, so unusual for coronavirus.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/0 ... -work/amp/

So with just over half vaccinated, but more if the vulnerable, but a lack of ... good behavior, I think we'll have a risk of overload hospitals.

My relative's area is touch and go as to the need to cancel other medical services to staff up a 3rd ward due to the nasty Delta variant. Twice a day they decide no, cases are down by one, but one family coming in could force the decision as warm weather icu cases (ATV, rock climbing, motorcycle injuries) are doing their normal seasonal surge competing for staff/beds (not so much in 2020 due to closed rental centers).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

I personally am wondering when we will see an outbreak in one of the undervaccinated urban high density areas. There are only 154k people in the area I have insight. It will be much more interesting when a high density urban area spikes. Let us not forget hospitizations tend to lag infections by many weeks (going from memory 4 or 5 weeks), so we need to stay ahead of impacted hospitals.

Aerolimani,
Laws have shifted that make it difficult to refuse insurance. But like smoking, scuba diving, sky diving, and certain other life choices, they may increase premiums.

Lightsaber

Assuming R0=3 for initial variant, 2.6x more transmissible mean R0=7.8? Mean even with 100% vaccine efficiency against the variant, it will still require 87% individuals vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, and if 90% effectiveness then 97% vaccination rate would be required?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:45 pm

If supporting data comes in on the dangers of Delta it seems that vaccines for the next lower age group (2-11) need to be authorized sooner. Is work on this being done?
 
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aerolimani
Posts: 1460
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:46 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:20 pm

lightsaber wrote:
More data on Delta,
64% more transmittable than Alpha, so the ~2.6x more transmittable than the original Wuhan variant.

The chance of hospitizations keeps going up, now considered twice as likely to hospitilize. I believe that is because of all the pediatric cases, so unusual for coronavirus.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/0 ... -work/amp/

So with just over half vaccinated, but more if the vulnerable, but a lack of ... good behavior, I think we'll have a risk of overload hospitals.

My relative's area is touch and go as to the need to cancel other medical services to staff up a 3rd ward due to the nasty Delta variant. Twice a day they decide no, cases are down by one, but one family coming in could force the decision as warm weather icu cases (ATV, rock climbing, motorcycle injuries) are doing their normal seasonal surge competing for staff/beds (not so much in 2020 due to closed rental centers).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

I personally am wondering when we will see an outbreak in one of the undervaccinated urban high density areas. There are only 154k people in the area I have insight. It will be much more interesting when a high density urban area spikes. Let us not forget hospitizations tend to lag infections by many weeks (going from memory 4 or 5 weeks), so we need to stay ahead of impacted hospitals.

Aerolimani,
Laws have shifted that make it difficult to refuse insurance. But like smoking, scuba diving, sky diving, and certain other life choices, they may increase premiums.

Lightsaber

In a purely for-profit healthcare system, I don’t expect the system to maintain much surge capacity. Unused capacity is not profitable. I am more curious to see if surges overwhelm hospital systems in 1st world countries with public systems. I don’t consider the USA to be a good gauge in this regard.

It is good to hear that the insurance companies are more limited in what they can refuse. I admit my thinking was a bit macabre, but I was wondering if hospital over-occupation could be partly eased if the insurance companies were to become un- or less willing to pay for unvaccinated clients who contract serious cases of COVID-19.

PS: I think you can see that my opinion of private healthcare is quite negative.
 
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aerolimani
Posts: 1460
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:46 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:24 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
More data on Delta,
64% more transmittable than Alpha, so the ~2.6x more transmittable than the original Wuhan variant.

The chance of hospitizations keeps going up, now considered twice as likely to hospitilize. I believe that is because of all the pediatric cases, so unusual for coronavirus.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/0 ... -work/amp/

So with just over half vaccinated, but more if the vulnerable, but a lack of ... good behavior, I think we'll have a risk of overload hospitals.

My relative's area is touch and go as to the need to cancel other medical services to staff up a 3rd ward due to the nasty Delta variant. Twice a day they decide no, cases are down by one, but one family coming in could force the decision as warm weather icu cases (ATV, rock climbing, motorcycle injuries) are doing their normal seasonal surge competing for staff/beds (not so much in 2020 due to closed rental centers).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

I personally am wondering when we will see an outbreak in one of the undervaccinated urban high density areas. There are only 154k people in the area I have insight. It will be much more interesting when a high density urban area spikes. Let us not forget hospitizations tend to lag infections by many weeks (going from memory 4 or 5 weeks), so we need to stay ahead of impacted hospitals.

Aerolimani,
Laws have shifted that make it difficult to refuse insurance. But like smoking, scuba diving, sky diving, and certain other life choices, they may increase premiums.

Lightsaber

Assuming R0=3 for initial variant, 2.6x more transmissible mean R0=7.8? Mean even with 100% vaccine efficiency against the variant, it will still require 87% individuals vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, and if 90% effectiveness then 97% vaccination rate would be required?


If the delta variant really is that easily transmissible, we’re looking at many years of COVID-background. COVID-zero becomes absolutely impossible in even the medium term, and maybe ever. Just like “there’s no cure for the common cold.”
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4216
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:49 pm

aerolimani wrote:

One thing I will say about governments is that some created poor policies, and are now caught having to continue with these policies waaaay longer than they ought to. They prefer to continue, rather than admit they were poor policies to begin with, and poorly enacted to boot. The Canadian hotel quarantine system comes to mind. The government's own advisory panel has already said that the system was poorly designed, ineffective, and poorly implemented. And yet… the hotel quarantine continues. In fact, the only response to the report was for the government to double the fines of people who decide not to participate.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federa ... -1.6043473

If you can believe it, even Prime Minister Trudeau is quarantining in a hotel, upon his return from the G7 conference. It's the most absurd piece of political theatre I can imagine. Of course, he doesn't have to suffer the risk of being stuck in one of the packed-to-the-rafters-with-other travellers government approved hotels. He is in another hotel, and surely the entire floor has been cleared of all other residents, if not the entire hotel.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pm-trud ... -1.5459814


The Canadian government and many of the provinces are completely paralyzed by fear that they won't take any risks at all which is to our detriment. The only ones that seem to have handle on this are BC and Quebec after a really bad first wave.

The hotel quarantine system only works if done like Australia and NZ and event that isn't a perfect system as the recent outbreaks in Melbourne have demonstrated. It makes things better but it has to be for the entire stay and only applies to air passengers and not at land borders that it would be impossible to implement.

Being in Ontario the pace of re-opening now is so incredibly slow and they are punishing all of the non-essential businesses that were never issues to begin with. Gyms, salons and restaurants were never problems and followed the measures very well and in Toronto they have been closed since November. No one in Canada is advocating necessarily no capacity restrictions at this time (perhaps Alberta is the exception) and I think that would be foolish right now but basically everything should be open and if so be it mask mandates continuing inside for some time now.

Most of the community transmission came from essential workplaces where social distancing is hard or impossible and most of these employers are big employers who don't frankly give that much of a care about it. The Amazon facility in Brampton, Ontario was responsible for 600 cases alone. Most of these people happen to live in multi family homes and they bring it home. This drove the 3rd wave and like most things in life the vaccines went to the wealthier areas first. It took some doctors to be very vocal about the fact that vaccines had to be targeted and eventually were. Now with this Delta variant they are preaching the same thing for second doses and the province is again having logistical trouble.
In March it was a genuine supply issue and now its not and they better figure this out this summer or polite Canadians will start to fight back and the only answer in Canada is lockdowns when targeted approaches would work much better.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:19 pm

aerolimani wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
More data on Delta,
64% more transmittable than Alpha, so the ~2.6x more transmittable than the original Wuhan variant.

The chance of hospitizations keeps going up, now considered twice as likely to hospitilize. I believe that is because of all the pediatric cases, so unusual for coronavirus.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/0 ... -work/amp/

So with just over half vaccinated, but more if the vulnerable, but a lack of ... good behavior, I think we'll have a risk of overload hospitals.

My relative's area is touch and go as to the need to cancel other medical services to staff up a 3rd ward due to the nasty Delta variant. Twice a day they decide no, cases are down by one, but one family coming in could force the decision as warm weather icu cases (ATV, rock climbing, motorcycle injuries) are doing their normal seasonal surge competing for staff/beds (not so much in 2020 due to closed rental centers).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

I personally am wondering when we will see an outbreak in one of the undervaccinated urban high density areas. There are only 154k people in the area I have insight. It will be much more interesting when a high density urban area spikes. Let us not forget hospitizations tend to lag infections by many weeks (going from memory 4 or 5 weeks), so we need to stay ahead of impacted hospitals.

Aerolimani,
Laws have shifted that make it difficult to refuse insurance. But like smoking, scuba diving, sky diving, and certain other life choices, they may increase premiums.

Lightsaber

Assuming R0=3 for initial variant, 2.6x more transmissible mean R0=7.8? Mean even with 100% vaccine efficiency against the variant, it will still require 87% individuals vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, and if 90% effectiveness then 97% vaccination rate would be required?


If the delta variant really is that easily transmissible, we’re looking at many years of COVID-background. COVID-zero becomes absolutely impossible in even the medium term, and maybe ever. Just like “there’s no cure for the common cold.”

Measles was worse. While one varriant, the vaccines work. We just need a high global vaccination rate.

Speaking of colds (and flus), when mRNA vaccines are available, I will sign up. We could reduce infections.

I expect employers to increase mandates.

Lightsaber
 
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aerolimani
Posts: 1460
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:46 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:36 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
aerolimani wrote:

One thing I will say about governments is that some created poor policies, and are now caught having to continue with these policies waaaay longer than they ought to. They prefer to continue, rather than admit they were poor policies to begin with, and poorly enacted to boot. The Canadian hotel quarantine system comes to mind. The government's own advisory panel has already said that the system was poorly designed, ineffective, and poorly implemented. And yet… the hotel quarantine continues. In fact, the only response to the report was for the government to double the fines of people who decide not to participate.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federa ... -1.6043473

If you can believe it, even Prime Minister Trudeau is quarantining in a hotel, upon his return from the G7 conference. It's the most absurd piece of political theatre I can imagine. Of course, he doesn't have to suffer the risk of being stuck in one of the packed-to-the-rafters-with-other travellers government approved hotels. He is in another hotel, and surely the entire floor has been cleared of all other residents, if not the entire hotel.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pm-trud ... -1.5459814


The Canadian government and many of the provinces are completely paralyzed by fear that they won't take any risks at all which is to our detriment. The only ones that seem to have handle on this are BC and Quebec after a really bad first wave.

The hotel quarantine system only works if done like Australia and NZ and event that isn't a perfect system as the recent outbreaks in Melbourne have demonstrated. It makes things better but it has to be for the entire stay and only applies to air passengers and not at land borders that it would be impossible to implement.

Being in Ontario the pace of re-opening now is so incredibly slow and they are punishing all of the non-essential businesses that were never issues to begin with. Gyms, salons and restaurants were never problems and followed the measures very well and in Toronto they have been closed since November. No one in Canada is advocating necessarily no capacity restrictions at this time (perhaps Alberta is the exception) and I think that would be foolish right now but basically everything should be open and if so be it mask mandates continuing inside for some time now.

Most of the community transmission came from essential workplaces where social distancing is hard or impossible and most of these employers are big employers who don't frankly give that much of a care about it. The Amazon facility in Brampton, Ontario was responsible for 600 cases alone. Most of these people happen to live in multi family homes and they bring it home. This drove the 3rd wave and like most things in life the vaccines went to the wealthier areas first. It took some doctors to be very vocal about the fact that vaccines had to be targeted and eventually were. Now with this Delta variant they are preaching the same thing for second doses and the province is again having logistical trouble.
In March it was a genuine supply issue and now its not and they better figure this out this summer or polite Canadians will start to fight back and the only answer in Canada is lockdowns when targeted approaches would work much better.

Let's not mince words. The Canadian approach to the pandemic has been disastrous, federally, and in most of the provinces. Too much open-close-open-close, too much waffling on policy, and application measures/policies which are more theatrical than effective.

Australia and New Zealand are terrible examples to to compare with Canada. They are essentially self-sufficient islands. They are not like Canada where some 80% of travellers crossings the border are exempt from quarantine because they are considered essential workers. The hotel quarantine system was/is pure theatre. The government’s own advisory panel said the same, just more diplomatically than me.

I spent quite a bit of the pandemic in Mexico City. There, I observed MUCH more consistent policies from government. Mandated mask use in all public spaces, and public transit, starting many months ahead of Canada. Nightclubs closed from much earlier in the pandemic. A focus on helping small businesses to function rather than letting the multi-nationals reap all the profits. They gave support to develop websites and delivery services. And, when they first reopened indoor dining, they stipulated 30% legal capacity. None of this 6-foot business which saw Canadian restaurants using tape measures, trying to cram in the maximum possible. In parts of Canada, restaurants could even forgo the 6-foot rule if they put up acrylic “barriers.” It was ridiculous.

In the end, it was pleasantly surprising to see the situation so well managed in Mexico. It was upsetting to see Canada, supposedly part of the first world, messing it up so badly. I think the Canadian mismanagement has led to higher levels of vaccine hesitancy and belief in conspiracy theories. Despite a generally less educated population in Mexico, and with many people much less affluent, the desire for vaccination is high. When Mexico finally gets enough vaccines, I suspect the uptake will be higher than in Canada.
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