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dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 25, 2021 1:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The new naming has good intentions, but is confusing. No name foe the original variant? Quick, what is Lambda?

Lightsaber

No, there is no good intention, just political correctness. There aren't enough Greek Alphabet to cover VOCs.

C.37(Peru) is Lambda.

https://www.who.int/en/activities/track ... -variants/
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jun 25, 2021 3:50 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The new naming has good intentions, but is confusing. No name foe the original variant? Quick, what is Lambda?

Lightsaber

No, there is no good intention, just political correctness. There aren't enough Greek Alphabet to cover VOCs.

C.37(Peru) is Lambda.

https://www.who.int/en/activities/track ... -variants/

Most people wouldn't have known Lambda, well done.

I actually agree with getting country names out. e.g., P.1 was discovered in Japan, coming from Brazil.

What matters is variants are tough. Delta changed the rules.
 
melpax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 4:37 am

Sydney to go into a 2 week lockdown from 6PM tonight due to an outbreak of the Delta variant. The outbreak started in the Eastern suburbs, several Eastern suburbs, including Bondi & the Sydney CBD were placed under lockdown as of yesterday, now all of the Sydney Metro area has been locked down.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavir ... 2361a58a03
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 9:34 am

In another thread it has been suggested that NZ and Australia? should follow Singapore's lead and just learn to live with Covid.
This may well be an option for the future, but only once we have vaccinated every body who is prepared to accept the vaccine, and have systems and resources in place to handle the inevitable ongoing outbreaks.
With acute vaccine supply and approval issues, especially for mRNA vaccines, this state is unlikely to be met before year end, in both countries.
It is one step at a time. The current challenge is to obtain the supplies, administer those doses, and by education minimise vaccine hesitancy to ensure a final very high uptake. We are far to far away to now determine what next, with the continuing flow of information from countries further ahead in the path of this epidemic.
The immediate challenge is in keeping covid out of our communities, and suppressing those outbreaks that do occur as a result of those necessary, and desirable interfaces with the rest of the world, until we have those much much higher vaccination rates.
 
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fallap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 11:02 am

Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 12:04 pm

fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.


What other option they have? Be like the UK? Multiple points of Delta introduction. No vaccines for young. No masks for school children.

I think politicians may not agree publicly but it appears they believe in herd immunity even when situation warns against it. All in the name of science.

It won't take much long from handful of cases to 90% dominant variant.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 12:21 pm

fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.

Some villages in Taiwan have already entered voluntary lockdown, banning all shops from operating, after discovery of six cases of Delta.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 1:08 pm

fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.

Delta quickly overwhelms the hospitals. Best to nip it early. Even a 50% vaccinated society cannot slow the virus. My relative's hospital is full of people who didn't believe in the virus. The virus is very happy to educate them. While most of the people are elderly or unhealthy, Delta is shifting the demographics.

I despise the idea of vaccine passports, but they will have to happen because so many avoid the vaccine for selfish reasons.

There is no hope of enough vaccine production in 2021. So this will continue.

Lightsaber
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 4:24 pm

fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.



Seriously? Does one really need to explain this to you? The reason there’s a lockdown is because they don’t want a “handful” of cases turning into thousands of cases which is exactly what would happen if they took your advice. The whole point is to stop the spread before it gets beyond a handful of cases. It makes perfect sense. What doesn’t make sense is allowing people to do whatever just because there’s only a handful of cases. Also, responsible governments have the right to restrict freedoms when a deadly and highly contagious pathogen is on the lose. So you’ll miss your hair appointment and you won’t be able to eat at your favorite restaurant. Cry me a river. Part of being an adult is understanding that inconveniences happen. People are more than happy to give up their freedoms after an act of terrorism, yet when a pandemic that’s several thousand times more deadly comes along it suddenly becomes tyranny. Give me a break.
 
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fallap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 4:40 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.



Seriously? Does one really need to explain this to you? The reason there’s a lockdown is because they don’t want a “handful” of cases turning into thousands of cases which is exactly what would happen if they took your advice. The whole point is to stop the spread before it gets beyond a handful of cases. It makes perfect sense. What doesn’t make sense is allowing people to do whatever just because there’s only a handful of cases. Also, responsible governments have the right to restrict freedoms when a deadly and highly contagious pathogen is on the lose. So you’ll miss your hair appointment and you won’t be able to eat at your favorite restaurant. Cry me a river. Part of being an adult is understanding that inconveniences happen. People are more than happy to give up their freedoms after an act of terrorism, yet when a pandemic that’s several thousand times more deadly comes along it suddenly becomes tyranny. Give me a break.


You'll be a perfect subject in a future autocracy.
 
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fallap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 4:41 pm

lightsaber wrote:
fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.

Delta quickly overwhelms the hospitals. Best to nip it early. Even a 50% vaccinated society cannot slow the virus. My relative's hospital is full of people who didn't believe in the virus. The virus is very happy to educate them. While most of the people are elderly or unhealthy, Delta is shifting the demographics.

I despise the idea of vaccine passports, but they will have to happen because so many avoid the vaccine for selfish reasons.

There is no hope of enough vaccine production in 2021. So this will continue.

Lightsaber


Yawn, Covid-19. Is that still a thing?
 
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fallap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 4:42 pm

There is nothing more fruitful in wonders than the art of being free; but there is nothing harder than apprenticeship in liberty. It is not the same with despotism. Despotism often presents itself as the repairer of all the misfortunes suffered; it is the support of legitimate rights, the upholder of the oppressed, and the founder of order. Peoples fall asleep amid the temporary prosperity that it brings forth; and when they awaken, they are miserable. Liberty, in contrast, is usually born amid storms; it is established painfully in the midst of civil discord, and only when it is already old can its benefits be known.
Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 7:05 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.



Seriously? Does one really need to explain this to you? The reason there’s a lockdown is because they don’t want a “handful” of cases turning into thousands of cases which is exactly what would happen if they took your advice. The whole point is to stop the spread before it gets beyond a handful of cases. It makes perfect sense. What doesn’t make sense is allowing people to do whatever just because there’s only a handful of cases. Also, responsible governments have the right to restrict freedoms when a deadly and highly contagious pathogen is on the lose. So you’ll miss your hair appointment and you won’t be able to eat at your favorite restaurant. Cry me a river. Part of being an adult is understanding that inconveniences happen. People are more than happy to give up their freedoms after an act of terrorism, yet when a pandemic that’s several thousand times more deadly comes along it suddenly becomes tyranny. Give me a break.



I give Australia credit for being swift on the lockdowns but with 80 cases they should be able to do specific contact tracing to isolate those who were exposed which has been deemed very effective where its done.

Unfortunately public heath can go a bit too far and restrictions often can get political. Ontario and Toronto is a perfect example of this, so was California. Salons, Restaurants and Gyms have been closed since November (its fine for 2 weeks but not 7 months, and this is excluding the first lockdown) and salons will get the green light to open on Wednesday. Restaurants have the ability to do outdoor dining but indoor dining will not be allowed for 3 more weeks and same with having Gyms open. This despite a very high vaccination rate.

This would be great if Toronto performed like Sydney has in containing Covid but has not been. All of these businesses have been closed for 7 months and were never the cause of Covid spread in fact many of them borrowed hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy PPE and enact distancing and safety protocols. Despite not re-opening in February and March the 3rd wave hit Toronto hard in April. The Ontario government also basically implemented a papers please law during their recent stay at home order which meant random stops for people in their cars. Every police department said they weren't going to enforce this and this was rescinded the next day.

It was essential businesses like Amazon fulfillment centers, manufacturing, logistics etc. that drove the spread of Covid with doctors sounding the alarm as many of these people live in apartment buildings and multi family homes. None of these businesses were closed and it took a month of doctors raising hell to get vaccines prioritized to these areas. In California Newsom did similar and left big business open and now he is facing a recall in a large part for this. If you are going to shut it down, shut it all down.

None of the small business were the problem and they were punished for it. Golf was banned for a month which was completely political decision in Ontario.

I was watching Bill Maher last night and they had this discussion, are we going to do this every cold and flu season with Covid now probably in the mix of that too? Is that going to be acceptable? Perhaps if the politicians and public health officials are transparent about it but where I live they haven't been in any way. In BC the chief medical officer has been transparent and compassionate and they had better covid numbers and far less restrictions. Where I live in Ontario they presented no data to the fact that gyms, salons, retail and restaurants were the problem and contributing to Covid spread.

Furthermore there are many doctors if they had their way would literally have people in bubbles.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 8:29 pm

StarAC17 wrote:


I give Australia credit for being swift on the lockdowns but with 80 cases they should be able to do specific contact tracing to isolate those who were exposed which has been deemed very effective where its done.



One infected person from that Sydney outbreak visited Wellingron NZ for two days immediatly prior to developing symptoms before leaving and testing positive on their return.
This generated 2213 close contacts that were traced and actually contacted, interviewed, and checked to isolate and get tested. So 29 cases per day would generate 64000 new contacts that day that need tracing. Just the support required to get food and essential supplies to those required to isolate even just until test results are received back is massive.
I suspect the surge testing is now resulting in an increased delay in processing.
Their contact tracing understandably is now falling far behind what is required hence the very belated realisation that lockdown is required.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 9:02 pm

Toenga wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:


I give Australia credit for being swift on the lockdowns but with 80 cases they should be able to do specific contact tracing to isolate those who were exposed which has been deemed very effective where its done.



One infected person from that Sydney outbreak visited Wellingron NZ for two days immediatly prior to developing symptoms before leaving and testing positive on their return.
This generated 2213 close contacts that were traced and actually contacted, interviewed, and checked to isolate and get tested. So 29 cases per day would generate 64000 new contacts that day that need tracing. Just the support required to get food and essential supplies to those required to isolate even just until test results are received back is massive.
I suspect the surge testing is now resulting in an increased delay in processing.
Their contact tracing understandably is now falling far behind what is required hence the very belated realisation that lockdown is required.

A few days ago HK identified an airport worker being infected, tested 30000 close contact but still unable to identify source of infection
I wonder how they classify close contact.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 9:46 pm

fallap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.

Delta quickly overwhelms the hospitals. Best to nip it early. Even a 50% vaccinated society cannot slow the virus. My relative's hospital is full of people who didn't believe in the virus. The virus is very happy to educate them. While most of the people are elderly or unhealthy, Delta is shifting the demographics.

I despise the idea of vaccine passports, but they will have to happen because so many avoid the vaccine for selfish reasons.

There is no hope of enough vaccine production in 2021. So this will continue.

Lightsaber


Yawn, Covid-19. Is that still a thing?

I say this as a fellow user:

Are you serious? I have multiple friends in medicine noting the nurses are so exhausted/burnt out they are having to cancel normal care due to the Delta surge.

In the areas Delta establishes, it overwhelms the hospitals.


It hits young people and hospitalizes athletic people who dismiss it.

Lightsaber
 
cpd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jun 26, 2021 9:58 pm

fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.


Is it YOUR major metropolis or not? (Yes or no) Do you live in Sydney or not? (Yes or no)

Basic right to free movement, what on earth is that supposed to mean?

I was free to go ride 77km on a bicycle yesterday, and I could have done the same today if it wasn't so cold this morning. And I went out for a 5km walk in the afternoon. Seems like free movement to me. I might actually do that bike ride later today just to prove you are talking total nonsense.

Sorry to bring a dose of reality to your rant, I live in Sydney. You are trying to mislead people into thinking Sydney has become some kind of concentration camp. The only thing you forgot to say is that North Koreans have more freedom than we do. :shakehead:
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:55 pm

fallap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
fallap wrote:
Sydney, a major metropolis in total lockdown because of 80 cases. This must be the embodiment of insanity to restrict the basic right to free movement due to a handful of cases. Fortunately this sort of madness proposed by doctors were shot down in Denmark.

Delta quickly overwhelms the hospitals. Best to nip it early. Even a 50% vaccinated society cannot slow the virus. My relative's hospital is full of people who didn't believe in the virus. The virus is very happy to educate them. While most of the people are elderly or unhealthy, Delta is shifting the demographics.

I despise the idea of vaccine passports, but they will have to happen because so many avoid the vaccine for selfish reasons.

There is no hope of enough vaccine production in 2021. So this will continue.

Lightsaber


Yawn, Covid-19. Is that still a thing?


Yes it is, and if I recall correctly your age group (30s??) is in the thick of it.

Both clinical presentation and target age group changed. Younger people are dying more than old ones.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:07 pm

WHO changed its mind, urges fully vaccinated people to wear mask.
Unfortunately US CDC won't and can't repair the damage it has done.

“People cannot feel safe just because they had the two doses. They still need to protect themselves,” Dr. Mariangela Simao, WHO assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products, said during a news briefing from the agency’s Geneva headquarters.

“Vaccine alone won’t stop community transmission,” Simao added. “People need to continue to use masks consistently, be in ventilated spaces, hand hygiene ... the physical distance, avoid crowding. This still continues to be extremely important, even if you’re vaccinated when you have a community transmission ongoing.”


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/delta-w ... reads.html
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:07 am

cpd wrote:
Sorry to bring a dose of reality to your rant, I live in Sydney. You are trying to mislead people into thinking Sydney has become some kind of concentration camp. The only thing you forgot to say is that North Koreans have more freedom than we do. :shakehead:


It was absolute peak hour for walkers yesterday near where i live - so much so that social distancing was becoming difficult at times. And riding a bike above walking pace impossible.

I can't sit and eat at a cafe or restaurant, and theatre is cancelled. But that's the extent of restrictions on my life here in Sydney. I was even downtown this morning (CBD for the locals) at the blood bank.

The NSW Premier has said that 10 million vaccine doses need to be delivered in NSW before moving past inbound quarantine. Most Australians are far more annoyed at the slow vaccination rollout which is slowing border easing than the border controls themselves.

But there is a very difficult conversation to be had around living with Covid. In a non-pandemic year we have 400-800 influenza deaths nationally (1,200 in a really bad year) plus 10s of thousands of infections. What infection and death rates will be acceptable, as they are unlikely to stay at zero as we normalise.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 11:27 am

Kent350787 wrote:
cpd wrote:
Sorry to bring a dose of reality to your rant, I live in Sydney. You are trying to mislead people into thinking Sydney has become some kind of concentration camp. The only thing you forgot to say is that North Koreans have more freedom than we do. :shakehead:


It was absolute peak hour for walkers yesterday near where i live - so much so that social distancing was becoming difficult at times. And riding a bike above walking pace impossible.

I can't sit and eat at a cafe or restaurant, and theatre is cancelled. But that's the extent of restrictions on my life here in Sydney. I was even downtown this morning (CBD for the locals) at the blood bank.

The NSW Premier has said that 10 million vaccine doses need to be delivered in NSW before moving past inbound quarantine. Most Australians are far more annoyed at the slow vaccination rollout which is slowing border easing than the border controls themselves.

But there is a very difficult conversation to be had around living with Covid. In a non-pandemic year we have 400-800 influenza deaths nationally (1,200 in a really bad year) plus 10s of thousands of infections. What infection and death rates will be acceptable, as they are unlikely to stay at zero as we normalise.

coronavirus moved forward vaccines by 30 years or so. Influenza will benefit from mRNA or Adrenovirus vaccines that will be far more effective. The question is, can we get more people to take them? (Prior uptake was too low.)

Since coronavirus and influenza are really bad, I suspect this year we will get more of both (simultaneous infections).

As to Sydney, it is a minor outbreak they are trying to stop early. I'm sure a hassle, but also not armagedon.

Lightsaber
 
Derico
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 11:51 am

lightsaber wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
cpd wrote:
Sorry to bring a dose of reality to your rant, I live in Sydney. You are trying to mislead people into thinking Sydney has become some kind of concentration camp. The only thing you forgot to say is that North Koreans have more freedom than we do. :shakehead:


It was absolute peak hour for walkers yesterday near where i live - so much so that social distancing was becoming difficult at times. And riding a bike above walking pace impossible.

I can't sit and eat at a cafe or restaurant, and theatre is cancelled. But that's the extent of restrictions on my life here in Sydney. I was even downtown this morning (CBD for the locals) at the blood bank.

The NSW Premier has said that 10 million vaccine doses need to be delivered in NSW before moving past inbound quarantine. Most Australians are far more annoyed at the slow vaccination rollout which is slowing border easing than the border controls themselves.

But there is a very difficult conversation to be had around living with Covid. In a non-pandemic year we have 400-800 influenza deaths nationally (1,200 in a really bad year) plus 10s of thousands of infections. What infection and death rates will be acceptable, as they are unlikely to stay at zero as we normalise.

coronavirus moved forward vaccines by 30 years or so. Influenza will benefit from mRNA or Adrenovirus vaccines that will be far more effective. The question is, can we get more people to take them? (Prior uptake was too low.)

Since coronavirus and influenza are really bad, I suspect this year we will get more of both (simultaneous infections).

As to Sydney, it is a minor outbreak they are trying to stop early. I'm sure a hassle, but also not armagedon.

Lightsaber


With all due respect Lightsaber, a bunch of little armageddons spaced out over time and geography still will amount to one big armageddon. Australia, and China were as draconian as they could be, they still can't shake it off. Taiwan was as sealed as could be, they can't shake it off. Soft lockdowns, hard lockdowns, nothing anywhere else in the world has stopped it. It's going on 2 years now with the slogan "a few weeks of lockdown and we got this". It's not believable anymore because it doesn't make common sense. It's not that lockdowns are not useful in an emergency, is that they are not useful in ending a viral contagion permanently.

Again, I have not heard any doctor or official coming out saying the truth: either we lockdown and end all social activities forever, end all travel between countries and even regions within countries forever (since variants will always emerge), end a large part of trade forever (since while unlikely it can still spread that way on rare occasions)... or we sit down as civilized nations and come up with a uniform, predictable, worldwide plan to move forward. the current "every man for himself approach" and "every other man keep away from my yard" now is a colossal failure. It is fine for 6 months to a year as a stop-gap, but this has become THE solution governments around the world are adopting. It will do them in when the virus spreads anyway + a ruined global economy, trade, and even cultural relations and trust are also washed away.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 12:11 pm

https://news.mingpao.com/ins/%e6%b8%af% ... 4876471976
Hong Kong government: Due to resurging case count in UK and rampant spread of Delta variant, many inbound travellers from UK have been detected to carry novel coronavirus with L452R mutations, exceeding the standard defined level, as such new restriction will be applied to UK starting from July 1, which includes no passengers flights from UK will be allowed to land in Hong Kong, and anyone who have stayed in the UK for more than 2 hours in the previous 21 days will be banned from boarding any Hong Kong bound flights, in other words anyone who want to travel to HK from UK nust first observe a 21 days cool down period outside Hong Kong before entering Hong Kong and observe another 14/21-days quarantine
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 12:35 pm

fallap wrote:
There is nothing more fruitful in wonders than the art of being free; but there is nothing harder than apprenticeship in liberty. It is not the same with despotism. Despotism often presents itself as the repairer of all the misfortunes suffered; it is the support of legitimate rights, the upholder of the oppressed, and the founder of order. Peoples fall asleep amid the temporary prosperity that it brings forth; and when they awaken, they are miserable. Liberty, in contrast, is usually born amid storms; it is established painfully in the midst of civil discord, and only when it is already old can its benefits be known.
Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America


This is a massive straw man. de Tocqueville was discussing discord in the sense of what form democracy is best practiced in, *not* response to crisis. This prattle comes off as emotional venting more than anything logical. Nobody is promoting despotism to cure all of society's ills. Ridiculous.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 12:55 pm

Derico wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:

It was absolute peak hour for walkers yesterday near where i live - so much so that social distancing was becoming difficult at times. And riding a bike above walking pace impossible.

I can't sit and eat at a cafe or restaurant, and theatre is cancelled. But that's the extent of restrictions on my life here in Sydney. I was even downtown this morning (CBD for the locals) at the blood bank.

The NSW Premier has said that 10 million vaccine doses need to be delivered in NSW before moving past inbound quarantine. Most Australians are far more annoyed at the slow vaccination rollout which is slowing border easing than the border controls themselves.

But there is a very difficult conversation to be had around living with Covid. In a non-pandemic year we have 400-800 influenza deaths nationally (1,200 in a really bad year) plus 10s of thousands of infections. What infection and death rates will be acceptable, as they are unlikely to stay at zero as we normalise.

coronavirus moved forward vaccines by 30 years or so. Influenza will benefit from mRNA or Adrenovirus vaccines that will be far more effective. The question is, can we get more people to take them? (Prior uptake was too low.)

Since coronavirus and influenza are really bad, I suspect this year we will get more of both (simultaneous infections).

As to Sydney, it is a minor outbreak they are trying to stop early. I'm sure a hassle, but also not armagedon.

Lightsaber


With all due respect Lightsaber, a bunch of little armageddons spaced out over time and geography still will amount to one big armageddon. Australia, and China were as draconian as they could be, they still can't shake it off. Taiwan was as sealed as could be, they can't shake it off. Soft lockdowns, hard lockdowns, nothing anywhere else in the world has stopped it. It's going on 2 years now with the slogan "a few weeks of lockdown and we got this". It's not believable anymore because it doesn't make common sense. It's not that lockdowns are not useful in an emergency, is that they are not useful in ending a viral contagion permanently.

Again, I have not heard any doctor or official coming out saying the truth: either we lockdown and end all social activities forever, end all travel between countries and even regions within countries forever (since variants will always emerge), end a large part of trade forever (since while unlikely it can still spread that way on rare occasions)... or we sit down as civilized nations and come up with a uniform, predictable, worldwide plan to move forward. the current "every man for himself approach" and "every other man keep away from my yard" now is a colossal failure. It is fine for 6 months to a year as a stop-gap, but this has become THE solution governments around the world are adopting. It will do them in when the virus spreads anyway + a ruined global economy, trade, and even cultural relations and trust are also washed away.

I don't want lockdown forever. We need more vaccinations. We need masks (they work).

LoL, I anger both sides, so I must be somewhat of a middle ground. I have friends and relatives doing long haul coronavirus symptoms care. I do not want that for my too young to vaccinate child. I have long haul symptoms and while minor, they are not to be dismissed.

Unfortunately, this means less international travel until we get enough vaccination. We'll get through this, it just sucks.

Everyone being selfish and not vaccinating is the problem. No vaccine for younger children is a problem. While there cases are minor, kindergarten outbreaks are a thing with Delta. Will it cause the brain nerve damage? My relative who was doing long haul care (back in the coronavirus ward) has numerous young with lung scarring. The nerve damage is more than loss of taste and smell. More than a few minor cases are crippled, or worse (slow death).

https://news.yahoo.com/schools-across-u ... 15808.html

https://news.yahoo.com/news/kids-more-l ... 04912.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

But we have an out. Vaccination. That requires a child's vaccine, mandatory vaccinations, and I dread to say it, vaccine passports. If you were to go through the vaccine thread, I was very against the last two. Now... Unfortunately not enough will be vaccinated without a mandatory plan.

Ugh...

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 3:36 pm

One of my cousins has (had? divorce in process) a anti-vax wife (ex-wife)? Anyway, all of them have obvious Delta symptoms (mother, father, two kids).

I feel for them as they are family. I do not feel for them as unvaccinated.

They are all +ve coronavirus tests, with the super cold symptoms of delta.

This YouTube video goes into how with prior variants, one person in a family would get alpha, but the whole family gets delta.
https://youtu.be/omZX4JqTlQY


My cousin decided to be a case study. Yes, if you read prior posts, I thought he and his kids were vaccinated. Instead they answered the question in a way I took as vaccinated, but he was really saying "maybe in the future." It didn't occur to me such a smart & wise person would avoid the vaccine. I assumed...

Anti-vac families will get both barrels. Sigh ...
It is the parents' fault for not vaccinating kids (they are both teenagers).

My cousin is in bad shape and is buffer than any high school football player (he was captain of the team).

Lightsaber
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4205
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 5:04 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Derico wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
coronavirus moved forward vaccines by 30 years or so. Influenza will benefit from mRNA or Adrenovirus vaccines that will be far more effective. The question is, can we get more people to take them? (Prior uptake was too low.)

Since coronavirus and influenza are really bad, I suspect this year we will get more of both (simultaneous infections).

As to Sydney, it is a minor outbreak they are trying to stop early. I'm sure a hassle, but also not armagedon.

Lightsaber


With all due respect Lightsaber, a bunch of little armageddons spaced out over time and geography still will amount to one big armageddon. Australia, and China were as draconian as they could be, they still can't shake it off. Taiwan was as sealed as could be, they can't shake it off. Soft lockdowns, hard lockdowns, nothing anywhere else in the world has stopped it. It's going on 2 years now with the slogan "a few weeks of lockdown and we got this". It's not believable anymore because it doesn't make common sense. It's not that lockdowns are not useful in an emergency, is that they are not useful in ending a viral contagion permanently.

Again, I have not heard any doctor or official coming out saying the truth: either we lockdown and end all social activities forever, end all travel between countries and even regions within countries forever (since variants will always emerge), end a large part of trade forever (since while unlikely it can still spread that way on rare occasions)... or we sit down as civilized nations and come up with a uniform, predictable, worldwide plan to move forward. the current "every man for himself approach" and "every other man keep away from my yard" now is a colossal failure. It is fine for 6 months to a year as a stop-gap, but this has become THE solution governments around the world are adopting. It will do them in when the virus spreads anyway + a ruined global economy, trade, and even cultural relations and trust are also washed away.

I don't want lockdown forever. We need more vaccinations. We need masks (they work).

LoL, I anger both sides, so I must be somewhat of a middle ground. I have friends and relatives doing long haul coronavirus symptoms care. I do not want that for my too young to vaccinate child. I have long haul symptoms and while minor, they are not to be dismissed.

Unfortunately, this means less international travel until we get enough vaccination. We'll get through this, it just sucks.

Everyone being selfish and not vaccinating is the problem. No vaccine for younger children is a problem. While there cases are minor, kindergarten outbreaks are a thing with Delta. Will it cause the brain nerve damage? My relative who was doing long haul care (back in the coronavirus ward) has numerous young with lung scarring. The nerve damage is more than loss of taste and smell. More than a few minor cases are crippled, or worse (slow death).

https://news.yahoo.com/schools-across-u ... 15808.html

https://news.yahoo.com/news/kids-more-l ... 04912.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

But we have an out. Vaccination. That requires a child's vaccine, mandatory vaccinations, and I dread to say it, vaccine passports. If you were to go through the vaccine thread, I was very against the last two. Now... Unfortunately not enough will be vaccinated without a mandatory plan.

Ugh...

Lightsaber


I assume you live in the US.

You have no vaccine supply issue in your country and outside of making not having the vaccine a crime you can't force people to take it. You simply cannot and eventually you have to move on and those who refuse vaccines get covid and take the risk. If you have had your two doses you are good from the colleterial damage. You kid might not as of yet but I would trust that the FDA and the drug companies are trialing this for kids under 12 and they cannot rush this. You do and there are adverse effects on kids then you might be in more trouble and that isn't going to empower vaccine hesitant adults to scramble to get the shot.

Eventually society has to move forward and Biden is doing good and now exporting vaccines to the rest of the world as there is no shortage to Americans. Also we will all get boosters in late 2021/early 2022 that tackle the VOC's those who got the vaccines will not hesitate to get these boosters even though they are largely protected from the VOC's from the original vaccines.

In terms of the virology I don't believe that coronaviruses mutate at the rate that the current vaccines are going to provide little to no protection in the next year or two or even 5-10 for fully vaccinated individuals.
It is coming out that many past flu pandemics were may have actually been coronaviruses. The latest in the 1890's and now one identified from 20,000 years ago in east Asia. We know the one from 1890 causes the common cold today and in over 130 years of going through the human population it still causes a mild illness today. Covid19 doesn't appear to be anything special once the immune system is trained to identify it. Most of the carnage it has created IMO is that it is novel and evaded the immune system in many humans causing cytokine storms and being able to spread well beyond the respiratory system. This is something that hasn't been observed in vaccinated individuals or those who have recovered on a large scale.
 
Toenga
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 10:21 pm

Because some countries with the bulk of the vaccine manufacturing ability initially delayed export of vaccines, vaccine supply particularily of the sought after mRNA vaccines, is still very limited to many countries including New Zealand and Australia.
NZ placed an initial preliminsry modest order of 1.5 million doses for Pfizer for delivery in Q2 . In the event both Australia and NZ received our first vaccine doses late Feb of Pfizer. NZ had also placed preliminary orders for Mondena, AZ, and Jansen envisaging a campaign using vaccines from multiple suppliers.
Shortly after the campaign was started with the first available Pfizer vaccines and on the back of favourable data now available from countries well underway with vaccination, it switched to a simplified all Pfizer campaign, accepting that this would slow the initial rollout until stock became available from an order for the remaining doses to complete the campaign. Doses from this second order are scheduled to start arriving Q3, like now in a few days. So until the vaccination program is completed near year end, we have no incentive to depart our very successful elimination strategy built around testing and mandatory isolation at our border. This is backed up with additional measures on gathering sizes and if required lockdowns only when cases occur in our community. The last community case here, and local lockdown are respectively 4 and 5 months ago.
Australia has persued a similar strategy. Although their initial vaccination strategy was largely around locally produced AZ.
Because perceived problems with this vaccine, giving rise to concerning vaccine hesitancy they too pivoted towards Pfizer. However because of world wide supply constraints vaccines from their second order are not scheduled to arrive to Q4 so they are faced with very constrained supply for the next three months.
This was fine until their current community transmission outbreaks. The costs of maintaining a covid secure border are incedibly modest compared to those of operating in suppression mode. But they have a very considerable challenge in extinguishing Delta varient community transmission in a very largely unvaccinated population.
Because of the trans Tasman travel bubble our covid fortunes are now linked.
The main reason for slow vaccine rollout in both countries is the very tight supply of mRNA vaccines exacerbated by export bans from some countries.
There was also a moral dilemma. At the time of ordering and therefore scheduling deliveries, neither country was suffering from covid, except minor inconvenience, we had established a stable regime keeping it out and extinguishing local outbreaks. At the same time other countries were being truely devastated by the disease. Was it moral under those circumstances to join the scramble for early delivery?
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2102
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jun 28, 2021 11:05 pm

Australia overnight has agreed to open AZ to all, recognising the possible risk of adverse event and agreeing an indemnity scheme for those administering. It has also mandated vaccination for aged care workers, with full compliance by September. Imported Pfizer supplies are expected to increase significantly up to October.

My second shot of AZ is due in mid-August. My wife will get her second shot of Pfizer in mid-July. I'm hopeful that even my teens will be able to seek vaccination by the end of the year.

Vaccination is very clearly our only way out tof this at this point in time. And I agree that masks have a valid place in close contact siuations where the virus reamins extant in your community.
 
Derico
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:15 am

lightsaber wrote:
Derico wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
coronavirus moved forward vaccines by 30 years or so. Influenza will benefit from mRNA or Adrenovirus vaccines that will be far more effective. The question is, can we get more people to take them? (Prior uptake was too low.)

Since coronavirus and influenza are really bad, I suspect this year we will get more of both (simultaneous infections).

As to Sydney, it is a minor outbreak they are trying to stop early. I'm sure a hassle, but also not armagedon.

Lightsaber


With all due respect Lightsaber, a bunch of little armageddons spaced out over time and geography still will amount to one big armageddon. Australia, and China were as draconian as they could be, they still can't shake it off. Taiwan was as sealed as could be, they can't shake it off. Soft lockdowns, hard lockdowns, nothing anywhere else in the world has stopped it. It's going on 2 years now with the slogan "a few weeks of lockdown and we got this". It's not believable anymore because it doesn't make common sense. It's not that lockdowns are not useful in an emergency, is that they are not useful in ending a viral contagion permanently.

Again, I have not heard any doctor or official coming out saying the truth: either we lockdown and end all social activities forever, end all travel between countries and even regions within countries forever (since variants will always emerge), end a large part of trade forever (since while unlikely it can still spread that way on rare occasions)... or we sit down as civilized nations and come up with a uniform, predictable, worldwide plan to move forward. the current "every man for himself approach" and "every other man keep away from my yard" now is a colossal failure. It is fine for 6 months to a year as a stop-gap, but this has become THE solution governments around the world are adopting. It will do them in when the virus spreads anyway + a ruined global economy, trade, and even cultural relations and trust are also washed away.

I don't want lockdown forever. We need more vaccinations. We need masks (they work).

LoL, I anger both sides, so I must be somewhat of a middle ground. I have friends and relatives doing long haul coronavirus symptoms care. I do not want that for my too young to vaccinate child. I have long haul symptoms and while minor, they are not to be dismissed.

Unfortunately, this means less international travel until we get enough vaccination. We'll get through this, it just sucks.

Everyone being selfish and not vaccinating is the problem. No vaccine for younger children is a problem. While there cases are minor, kindergarten outbreaks are a thing with Delta. Will it cause the brain nerve damage? My relative who was doing long haul care (back in the coronavirus ward) has numerous young with lung scarring. The nerve damage is more than loss of taste and smell. More than a few minor cases are crippled, or worse (slow death).

https://news.yahoo.com/schools-across-u ... 15808.html

https://news.yahoo.com/news/kids-more-l ... 04912.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

But we have an out. Vaccination. That requires a child's vaccine, mandatory vaccinations, and I dread to say it, vaccine passports. If you were to go through the vaccine thread, I was very against the last two. Now... Unfortunately not enough will be vaccinated without a mandatory plan.

Ugh...

Lightsaber


For sure we will get through this. By that I mean humanity. But the choice is clear: many millions more dead through unchecked spread, or a destroyed for economy and society, and still many millions dead through corollary wars, famine, suicide. That's the choice now. The middle choice, some economic and personal damage to have reduced death toll, is allowing the virus to mutate to more virulent forms. This is the first time in recorded history a virus is getting more lethal AND contagious, and for several mutations in a row. It is a virtually impossible coincidence. So it is clearly being directed that way.

This is because the virus is neither completely wiped out, nor is it allowed to just be. I hate to be brutal in my example, but it's like religious or ideological persecution. You either let them operate in the open and therefore you have clear visibility of your "enemy", or you crush the movement completely taking many innocents along the way. The middle ground, some persecution but then backing off, has always ended very poorly for the oppressor because is simply toughens and smartens the oppressed into more cunning innovative tactics. Same here, we are now only pressuring this virus just enough to let it become more fit, but not enough to kill it off. It's the worst strategy. Vaccinations will fail because you are not rounding up the anti-vaxxers and literally stabbing them with a needle.

What I said was straight, cruel, and ugly, but it's the reality. Either many of us must die, or 2 generations of people will have to suffer a lifetime of limited economic success.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:35 pm

Derico wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Derico wrote:

With all due respect Lightsaber, a bunch of little armageddons spaced out over time and geography still will amount to one big armageddon. Australia, and China were as draconian as they could be, they still can't shake it off. Taiwan was as sealed as could be, they can't shake it off. Soft lockdowns, hard lockdowns, nothing anywhere else in the world has stopped it. It's going on 2 years now with the slogan "a few weeks of lockdown and we got this". It's not believable anymore because it doesn't make common sense. It's not that lockdowns are not useful in an emergency, is that they are not useful in ending a viral contagion permanently.

Again, I have not heard any doctor or official coming out saying the truth: either we lockdown and end all social activities forever, end all travel between countries and even regions within countries forever (since variants will always emerge), end a large part of trade forever (since while unlikely it can still spread that way on rare occasions)... or we sit down as civilized nations and come up with a uniform, predictable, worldwide plan to move forward. the current "every man for himself approach" and "every other man keep away from my yard" now is a colossal failure. It is fine for 6 months to a year as a stop-gap, but this has become THE solution governments around the world are adopting. It will do them in when the virus spreads anyway + a ruined global economy, trade, and even cultural relations and trust are also washed away.

I don't want lockdown forever. We need more vaccinations. We need masks (they work).

LoL, I anger both sides, so I must be somewhat of a middle ground. I have friends and relatives doing long haul coronavirus symptoms care. I do not want that for my too young to vaccinate child. I have long haul symptoms and while minor, they are not to be dismissed.

Unfortunately, this means less international travel until we get enough vaccination. We'll get through this, it just sucks.

Everyone being selfish and not vaccinating is the problem. No vaccine for younger children is a problem. While there cases are minor, kindergarten outbreaks are a thing with Delta. Will it cause the brain nerve damage? My relative who was doing long haul care (back in the coronavirus ward) has numerous young with lung scarring. The nerve damage is more than loss of taste and smell. More than a few minor cases are crippled, or worse (slow death).

https://news.yahoo.com/schools-across-u ... 15808.html

https://news.yahoo.com/news/kids-more-l ... 04912.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

But we have an out. Vaccination. That requires a child's vaccine, mandatory vaccinations, and I dread to say it, vaccine passports. If you were to go through the vaccine thread, I was very against the last two. Now... Unfortunately not enough will be vaccinated without a mandatory plan.

Ugh...

Lightsaber


For sure we will get through this. By that I mean humanity. But the choice is clear: many millions more dead through unchecked spread, or a destroyed for economy and society, and still many millions dead through corollary wars, famine, suicide. That's the choice now. The middle choice, some economic and personal damage to have reduced death toll, is allowing the virus to mutate to more virulent forms. This is the first time in recorded history a virus is getting more lethal AND contagious, and for several mutations in a row. It is a virtually impossible coincidence. So it is clearly being directed that way.

This is because the virus is neither completely wiped out, nor is it allowed to just be. I hate to be brutal in my example, but it's like religious or ideological persecution. You either let them operate in the open and therefore you have clear visibility of your "enemy", or you crush the movement completely taking many innocents along the way. The middle ground, some persecution but then backing off, has always ended very poorly for the oppressor because is simply toughens and smartens the oppressed into more cunning innovative tactics. Same here, we are now only pressuring this virus just enough to let it become more fit, but not enough to kill it off. It's the worst strategy. Vaccinations will fail because you are not rounding up the anti-vaxxers and literally stabbing them with a needle.

What I said was straight, cruel, and ugly, but it's the reality. Either many of us must die, or 2 generations of people will have to suffer a lifetime of limited economic success.

Yes, we must get more brutal enforcing vaccination or this never ends.

That means schools requiring too.
Sigh. I'm not liking the tools required.

This has been a virus vs humanity.
The flip side is wealthy nations need to help others get vaccinated, but under brutal conditions of trade and travel restrictions.

Lightsaber
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4205
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 29, 2021 5:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Derico wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I don't want lockdown forever. We need more vaccinations. We need masks (they work).

LoL, I anger both sides, so I must be somewhat of a middle ground. I have friends and relatives doing long haul coronavirus symptoms care. I do not want that for my too young to vaccinate child. I have long haul symptoms and while minor, they are not to be dismissed.

Unfortunately, this means less international travel until we get enough vaccination. We'll get through this, it just sucks.

Everyone being selfish and not vaccinating is the problem. No vaccine for younger children is a problem. While there cases are minor, kindergarten outbreaks are a thing with Delta. Will it cause the brain nerve damage? My relative who was doing long haul care (back in the coronavirus ward) has numerous young with lung scarring. The nerve damage is more than loss of taste and smell. More than a few minor cases are crippled, or worse (slow death).

https://news.yahoo.com/schools-across-u ... 15808.html

https://news.yahoo.com/news/kids-more-l ... 04912.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

But we have an out. Vaccination. That requires a child's vaccine, mandatory vaccinations, and I dread to say it, vaccine passports. If you were to go through the vaccine thread, I was very against the last two. Now... Unfortunately not enough will be vaccinated without a mandatory plan.

Ugh...

Lightsaber


For sure we will get through this. By that I mean humanity. But the choice is clear: many millions more dead through unchecked spread, or a destroyed for economy and society, and still many millions dead through corollary wars, famine, suicide. That's the choice now. The middle choice, some economic and personal damage to have reduced death toll, is allowing the virus to mutate to more virulent forms. This is the first time in recorded history a virus is getting more lethal AND contagious, and for several mutations in a row. It is a virtually impossible coincidence. So it is clearly being directed that way.

This is because the virus is neither completely wiped out, nor is it allowed to just be. I hate to be brutal in my example, but it's like religious or ideological persecution. You either let them operate in the open and therefore you have clear visibility of your "enemy", or you crush the movement completely taking many innocents along the way. The middle ground, some persecution but then backing off, has always ended very poorly for the oppressor because is simply toughens and smartens the oppressed into more cunning innovative tactics. Same here, we are now only pressuring this virus just enough to let it become more fit, but not enough to kill it off. It's the worst strategy. Vaccinations will fail because you are not rounding up the anti-vaxxers and literally stabbing them with a needle.

What I said was straight, cruel, and ugly, but it's the reality. Either many of us must die, or 2 generations of people will have to suffer a lifetime of limited economic success.

Yes, we must get more brutal enforcing vaccination or this never ends.

That means schools requiring too.
Sigh. I'm not liking the tools required.

This has been a virus vs humanity.
The flip side is wealthy nations need to help others get vaccinated, but under brutal conditions of trade and travel restrictions.

Lightsaber


You cannot in a free society force people to take a vaccine. You can restrict what they do (such as travel, going into gyms, concerts etc.) most of those are private establishments with the ability to do this.
What do you propose the consequences be for a refusal? Jail or a fine? You open a huge can of worms with the government who I really don't trust to use a right like this temporarily. I trust private businesses to make this call and not a supposed free society. No court will uphold this either.

Also I take exception that this pandemic will never never end. There have been far worse ones in history (polio, smallpox, the black plague, the Spanish flu etc.) and in a historical perspective this one is pretty timid. All of those pandemics ended and only one pathogen is eradicated, that being smallpox. Polio and the black plague still circulate in some capacity.

The fact that we have vaccines will accelerate this one ending with minimal loss of life. Yes I understand this virus has costed 3 million lives globally but the Spanish flu killed and estimated 50 million so this one is like a Mt. St. Helens vs a Tambora eruption. Both were bad but one significantly worse by several factors
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:21 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Derico wrote:

For sure we will get through this. By that I mean humanity. But the choice is clear: many millions more dead through unchecked spread, or a destroyed for economy and society, and still many millions dead through corollary wars, famine, suicide. That's the choice now. The middle choice, some economic and personal damage to have reduced death toll, is allowing the virus to mutate to more virulent forms. This is the first time in recorded history a virus is getting more lethal AND contagious, and for several mutations in a row. It is a virtually impossible coincidence. So it is clearly being directed that way.

This is because the virus is neither completely wiped out, nor is it allowed to just be. I hate to be brutal in my example, but it's like religious or ideological persecution. You either let them operate in the open and therefore you have clear visibility of your "enemy", or you crush the movement completely taking many innocents along the way. The middle ground, some persecution but then backing off, has always ended very poorly for the oppressor because is simply toughens and smartens the oppressed into more cunning innovative tactics. Same here, we are now only pressuring this virus just enough to let it become more fit, but not enough to kill it off. It's the worst strategy. Vaccinations will fail because you are not rounding up the anti-vaxxers and literally stabbing them with a needle.

What I said was straight, cruel, and ugly, but it's the reality. Either many of us must die, or 2 generations of people will have to suffer a lifetime of limited economic success.

Yes, we must get more brutal enforcing vaccination or this never ends.

That means schools requiring too.
Sigh. I'm not liking the tools required.

This has been a virus vs humanity.
The flip side is wealthy nations need to help others get vaccinated, but under brutal conditions of trade and travel restrictions.

Lightsaber


You cannot in a free society force people to take a vaccine. You can restrict what they do (such as travel, going into gyms, concerts etc.) most of those are private establishments with the ability to do this.
What do you propose the consequences be for a refusal? Jail or a fine? You open a huge can of worms with the government who I really don't trust to use a right like this temporarily. I trust private businesses to make this call and not a supposed free society. No court will uphold this either.

Also I take exception that this pandemic will never never end. There have been far worse ones in history (polio, smallpox, the black plague, the Spanish flu etc.) and in a historical perspective this one is pretty timid. All of those pandemics ended and only one pathogen is eradicated, that being smallpox. Polio and the black plague still circulate in some capacity.

The fact that we have vaccines will accelerate this one ending with minimal loss of life. Yes I understand this virus has costed 3 million lives globally but the Spanish flu killed and estimated 50 million so this one is like a Mt. St. Helens vs a Tambora eruption. Both were bad but one significantly worse by several factors

It's not necessary to enforce vaccination by fines or jail. You can use other "motivators." You can require vaccines, and if they don't accept that, the alternative is tests. Basically, you require one of three things: 1) proof of vaccination (easy), 2) medically legitimate exception to vaccination (difficult to obtain), or 3) regular covid tests, with negative test results, which the person must pay for (expensive and inconvenient). If it's the place of work, then require tests twice a week, and if a positive result comes back, they must quarantine two weeks, without pay.

There's a certain sect of anti-vaxxers that will still hold out, but many more would decide it's better to "risk" :roll: the vaccine than pay for and subject themselves to constant tests.

You don't make it illegal not to vaccinate, you just make it onerous.

You'd have people making civil rights cases against the government, but virtually every country in the world (with legally protected civil rights) allows for exceptions, justified for reasons of public health.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4205
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:46 pm

aerolimani wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Yes, we must get more brutal enforcing vaccination or this never ends.

That means schools requiring too.
Sigh. I'm not liking the tools required.

This has been a virus vs humanity.
The flip side is wealthy nations need to help others get vaccinated, but under brutal conditions of trade and travel restrictions.

Lightsaber


You cannot in a free society force people to take a vaccine. You can restrict what they do (such as travel, going into gyms, concerts etc.) most of those are private establishments with the ability to do this.
What do you propose the consequences be for a refusal? Jail or a fine? You open a huge can of worms with the government who I really don't trust to use a right like this temporarily. I trust private businesses to make this call and not a supposed free society. No court will uphold this either.

Also I take exception that this pandemic will never never end. There have been far worse ones in history (polio, smallpox, the black plague, the Spanish flu etc.) and in a historical perspective this one is pretty timid. All of those pandemics ended and only one pathogen is eradicated, that being smallpox. Polio and the black plague still circulate in some capacity.

The fact that we have vaccines will accelerate this one ending with minimal loss of life. Yes I understand this virus has costed 3 million lives globally but the Spanish flu killed and estimated 50 million so this one is like a Mt. St. Helens vs a Tambora eruption. Both were bad but one significantly worse by several factors

It's not necessary to enforce vaccination by fines or jail. You can use other "motivators." You can require vaccines, and if they don't accept that, the alternative is tests. Basically, you require one of three things: 1) proof of vaccination (easy), 2) medically legitimate exception to vaccination (difficult to obtain), or 3) regular covid tests, with negative test results, which the person must pay for (expensive and inconvenient). If it's the place of work, then require tests twice a week, and if a positive result comes back, they must quarantine two weeks, without pay.

There's a certain sect of anti-vaxxers that will still hold out, but many more would decide it's better to "risk" :roll: the vaccine than pay for and subject themselves to constant tests.

You don't make it illegal not to vaccinate, you just make it onerous.

You'd have people making civil rights cases against the government, but virtually every country in the world (with legally protected civil rights) allows for exceptions, justified for reasons of public health.


I agree with this but for someone getting my second shot this Friday. After July 16th I am not going to worry a whole lot about people who aren't vaccinated because I will have the faith that I will be adequately protected. The Yoga studio I regularly attend most certainly will not require proof of vaccination for people to attend.

I would put it in the hands of the private sector such as concert and sports venues, airlines, certain workplaces, schools etc. and let people try that in the courts. Just have the government stay out of enforcement of it. I think this is what the US will be doing, no federal or state mandates but the private sector can allow for proof of vaccination.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:30 pm

aerolimani wrote:
You don't make it illegal not to vaccinate, you just make it onerous.

You'd have people making civil rights cases against the government, but virtually every country in the world (with legally protected civil rights) allows for exceptions, justified for reasons of public health.

This I agree with.

But we also need vaccines for younger children.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:53 am

This chart is an interesting case of "how bad is it" and "how well do we know how bad it is?"
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... untry=~USA

UK, UAE, and Cyprus have a lot of cases per population, but the amount of testing gives confidence they know how bad it is.

Paraguay, South Africa, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Nambia, and Colombia have it bad, but they are not testing enough to know how bad.

Guatemala, Indonesia, Mexico, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Zambia aren't testing enough to know how bad it is, but it could be really bad.

Sadly, it is just too obvious another bad wave is hitting the world.

Note: I believe in metrics.
More than 100cases per million, in particular with Delta, risks having the hospitals over-run.
I consider 10% positivity the upper bound of quantifying the problem. Once more than 20% of tests are positive, that means too many sick people are not being tested and thus not counted.

Of course such simple metrics miss when people are denied testing by cost or location (e.g., is a testing center just too far away?).

I also follow hospitalizations, but that of course is a trailing indicator to measured cases by a few weeks which trails infections by a week or two.

Lightsaber
 
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aerolimani
Posts: 1460
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:41 am

lightsaber wrote:
This chart is an interesting case of "how bad is it" and "how well do we know how bad it is?"
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... untry=~USA

UK, UAE, and Cyprus have a lot of cases per population, but the amount of testing gives confidence they know how bad it is.

Paraguay, South Africa, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Nambia, and Colombia have it bad, but they are not testing enough to know how bad.

Guatemala, Indonesia, Mexico, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Zambia aren't testing enough to know how bad it is, but it could be really bad.

Sadly, it is just too obvious another bad wave is hitting the world.

Note: I believe in metrics.
More than 100cases per million, in particular with Delta, risks having the hospitals over-run.
I consider 10% positivity the upper bound of quantifying the problem. Once more than 20% of tests are positive, that means too many sick people are not being tested and thus not counted.

Of course such simple metrics miss when people are denied testing by cost or location (e.g., is a testing center just too far away?).

I also follow hospitalizations, but that of course is a trailing indicator to measured cases by a few weeks which trails infections by a week or two.

Lightsaber

Mexico City has been fascinating. A very different approach to public health measures. They started with an early and hard lockdown. Masks were mandated very early on. Public parks and and outdoor exercise areas were closed. Every restaurant and street food vendor was shut down. But, after a month or so, things started to open up, with strict capacity restrictions, and things like no eating right at the street vendors’ carts. Mexico City managed only two waves. One initial one, and then another after too many families decided to celebrate Christmas together. But, people learned their lesson, and despite Easter being massively important to them, there was no post-Easter bump even.

Rather than pour resources into testing, the metric they chose to follow was hospitalizations. At the worst point in the second wave, in February 2020, they hit 83% occupation. They got down to about 6%, and decided to reopen quite a bit. Unfortunately now, after a few weeks of being probably too open, in my opinion, numbers are climbing again. Still, they are only at 9.4%.

Anyhow, it’s interesting to see another approach towards how to monitor the situation.

https://semaforo.covid19.cdmx.gob.mx/tablero/

What they did do with their resources was to create a ton of hospital beds, specifically prepared for COVID patients, that didn’t exist before the pandemic. FYI, I believe that the number of beds hasn’t changed since maybe June 2020. So, the hospital occupancy percentage has been a useable statistic since that time.

So yes, it is a trailing indicator, but it has been effective.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:45 am

aerolimani wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This chart is an interesting case of "how bad is it" and "how well do we know how bad it is?"
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... untry=~USA

UK, UAE, and Cyprus have a lot of cases per population, but the amount of testing gives confidence they know how bad it is.

Paraguay, South Africa, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Nambia, and Colombia have it bad, but they are not testing enough to know how bad.

Guatemala, Indonesia, Mexico, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Zambia aren't testing enough to know how bad it is, but it could be really bad.

Sadly, it is just too obvious another bad wave is hitting the world.

Note: I believe in metrics.
More than 100cases per million, in particular with Delta, risks having the hospitals over-run.
I consider 10% positivity the upper bound of quantifying the problem. Once more than 20% of tests are positive, that means too many sick people are not being tested and thus not counted.

Of course such simple metrics miss when people are denied testing by cost or location (e.g., is a testing center just too far away?).

I also follow hospitalizations, but that of course is a trailing indicator to measured cases by a few weeks which trails infections by a week or two.

Lightsaber

Mexico City has been fascinating. A very different approach to public health measures. They started with an early and hard lockdown. Masks were mandated very early on. Public parks and and outdoor exercise areas were closed. Every restaurant and street food vendor was shut down. But, after a month or so, things started to open up, with strict capacity restrictions, and things like no eating right at the street vendors’ carts. Mexico City managed only two waves. One initial one, and then another after too many families decided to celebrate Christmas together. But, people learned their lesson, and despite Easter being massively important to them, there was no post-Easter bump even.

Rather than pour resources into testing, the metric they chose to follow was hospitalizations. At the worst point in the second wave, in February 2020, they hit 83% occupation. They got down to about 6%, and decided to reopen quite a bit. Unfortunately now, after a few weeks of being probably too open, in my opinion, numbers are climbing again. Still, they are only at 9.4%.

Anyhow, it’s interesting to see another approach towards how to monitor the situation.

https://semaforo.covid19.cdmx.gob.mx/tablero/

What they did do with their resources was to create a ton of hospital beds, specifically prepared for COVID patients, that didn’t exist before the pandemic. FYI, I believe that the number of beds hasn’t changed since maybe June 2020. So, the hospital occupancy percentage has been a useable statistic since that time.

So yes, it is a trailing indicator, but it has been effective.


Also just looking at man on the street videos from CDMX over the last year, mask adherence, in terms of people wearing them properly, has been far better than most places in the US. That may also explain the overall good management in CDMX compared to other parts of the country.
 
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aerolimani
Posts: 1460
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:23 am

Aaron747 wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This chart is an interesting case of "how bad is it" and "how well do we know how bad it is?"
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... untry=~USA

UK, UAE, and Cyprus have a lot of cases per population, but the amount of testing gives confidence they know how bad it is.

Paraguay, South Africa, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Nambia, and Colombia have it bad, but they are not testing enough to know how bad.

Guatemala, Indonesia, Mexico, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Zambia aren't testing enough to know how bad it is, but it could be really bad.

Sadly, it is just too obvious another bad wave is hitting the world.

Note: I believe in metrics.
More than 100cases per million, in particular with Delta, risks having the hospitals over-run.
I consider 10% positivity the upper bound of quantifying the problem. Once more than 20% of tests are positive, that means too many sick people are not being tested and thus not counted.

Of course such simple metrics miss when people are denied testing by cost or location (e.g., is a testing center just too far away?).

I also follow hospitalizations, but that of course is a trailing indicator to measured cases by a few weeks which trails infections by a week or two.

Lightsaber

Mexico City has been fascinating. A very different approach to public health measures. They started with an early and hard lockdown. Masks were mandated very early on. Public parks and and outdoor exercise areas were closed. Every restaurant and street food vendor was shut down. But, after a month or so, things started to open up, with strict capacity restrictions, and things like no eating right at the street vendors’ carts. Mexico City managed only two waves. One initial one, and then another after too many families decided to celebrate Christmas together. But, people learned their lesson, and despite Easter being massively important to them, there was no post-Easter bump even.

Rather than pour resources into testing, the metric they chose to follow was hospitalizations. At the worst point in the second wave, in February 2020, they hit 83% occupation. They got down to about 6%, and decided to reopen quite a bit. Unfortunately now, after a few weeks of being probably too open, in my opinion, numbers are climbing again. Still, they are only at 9.4%.

Anyhow, it’s interesting to see another approach towards how to monitor the situation.

https://semaforo.covid19.cdmx.gob.mx/tablero/

What they did do with their resources was to create a ton of hospital beds, specifically prepared for COVID patients, that didn’t exist before the pandemic. FYI, I believe that the number of beds hasn’t changed since maybe June 2020. So, the hospital occupancy percentage has been a useable statistic since that time.

So yes, it is a trailing indicator, but it has been effective.


Also just looking at man on the street videos from CDMX over the last year, mask adherence, in terms of people wearing them properly, has been far better than most places in the US. That may also explain the overall good management in CDMX compared to other parts of the country.

The rest of the country either thinks they all live in pueblitos, and the outside world doesn't touch them, or they're in a resort zone, and the almighty dollars of lockdown-escaping foreigners cannot be ignored.

From everywhere in CDMX you can see and hear the international flights coming and going. It's a different type of existence.
 
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SQ22
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Aug 06, 2021 2:00 pm

Please continue your discussion and to post your news in the thread below:

COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

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