Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
casinterest
Topic Author
Posts: 13812
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:40 pm

Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
FlyEndeavorAir
Posts: 78
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 10:49 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:01 pm

I'm on a business trip with my airline down in CLT right now. Other than at training in the building and at the airport everyone is done with masks, so nice to see. I'm fully vaccinated so I feel free again.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:42 pm

casinterest wrote:
Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.

Looking at this graph, even well vaccinated California has a spike:
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-i ... aph-2021-7

I am not surprised the spike in Western Colorado is spreading in Utah. Delta was spreading as Alpha declined. Now it has spread far enough to be an issue.

In high density urban areas of low vaccination, this new variant will take off.

Since kids are spreading this, it will be total level of vaccination that matters, not what fraction of adults.

My opinion is about 2% of the population cannot build an immunity. What I've read is that less than 1/(1+Ro) can be vulnerable. With an estimated Ro of 5, that means less than 15% of the population can be unvaccinated.

We are in for a wild summer.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Topic Author
Posts: 13812
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:14 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.

Looking at this graph, even well vaccinated California has a spike:
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-i ... aph-2021-7

I am not surprised the spike in Western Colorado is spreading in Utah. Delta was spreading as Alpha declined. Now it has spread far enough to be an issue.

In high density urban areas of low vaccination, this new variant will take off.

Since kids are spreading this, it will be total level of vaccination that matters, not what fraction of adults.

My opinion is about 2% of the population cannot build an immunity. What I've read is that less than 1/(1+Ro) can be vulnerable. With an estimated Ro of 5, that means less than 15% of the population can be unvaccinated.

We are in for a wild summer.

Lightsaber



We are headed for an interesting summer. July 4, travel to see relatives, businesses trying to get going, and now all this pain of Delta coming.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1272895

The delta variant is about 60 percent more transmissible than current dominant strain in the U.S., the alpha variant. That variant, first detected in the United Kingdom, was more contagious than the original virus.


The delta variant now accounts for a quarter of all new cases, and has been detected in all 50 states. Its rapid spread is sure to make it the dominant U.S. strain within the coming weeks, she said.

The seven-day average of new cases this week was about 12,600 cases, up 10 percent compared to last week's average, Walensky said.


So the gain may still be alpha, or it may be delta really asserting itself. time will tell.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4116
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:38 pm

casinterest wrote:
Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.


The US waves seem to be a bit ahead of the rest of the northern hemisphere, Canada and Europe for example. They had a spike in July and August and a small lull in the early fall with spikes happening in November last year. Canada and Europe largely did not see the second wave begin until well into September and the spike of hospitalizations not until late October/Early November with the peak pretty much being the same everywhere (early January, 2 weeks after Christmas).

My theory on this is there are a lot of places where in the summer its too hot to be outside. Sure you will golf and be at the beach on hot days but in the southern most states but no one wants to be out on a patio in Miami or Houston at high noon in July so you go inside. In the northeast and midwest people are outside in the summer because they have a real winter and only get a couple of months of patio weather so we are naturally outside delaying the second spike.

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.

Looking at this graph, even well vaccinated California has a spike:
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-i ... aph-2021-7

I am not surprised the spike in Western Colorado is spreading in Utah. Delta was spreading as Alpha declined. Now it has spread far enough to be an issue.

In high density urban areas of low vaccination, this new variant will take off.

Since kids are spreading this, it will be total level of vaccination that matters, not what fraction of adults.

My opinion is about 2% of the population cannot build an immunity. What I've read is that less than 1/(1+Ro) can be vulnerable. With an estimated Ro of 5, that means less than 15% of the population can be unvaccinated.

We are in for a wild summer.

Lightsaber


What evidence do you have that kids (those under 12 not eligible for vaccination) are the primary drivers of Covid spread? Schools haven't been a primary driver of Covid at all. They can't be excluded entirely but nearly all of the instances the outbreak in schools was generally low compared the community as a whole. If a specific area was a hot zone it increased transmission in the school but wasn't ever the primary driver of covid spread.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-schools ... 1613170571

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... ad-schools

All of the information I have seen that it is primarily 20-39 year old's that are the main drivers of the spread. Being the most social (the most likely to break rules) and more likely to work in essential workplaces that you can't work from home.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:56 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.

Looking at this graph, even well vaccinated California has a spike:
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-i ... aph-2021-7

I am not surprised the spike in Western Colorado is spreading in Utah. Delta was spreading as Alpha declined. Now it has spread far enough to be an issue.

In high density urban areas of low vaccination, this new variant will take off.

Since kids are spreading this, it will be total level of vaccination that matters, not what fraction of adults.

My opinion is about 2% of the population cannot build an immunity. What I've read is that less than 1/(1+Ro) can be vulnerable. With an estimated Ro of 5, that means less than 15% of the population can be unvaccinated.

We are in for a wild summer.

Lightsaber



We are headed for an interesting summer. July 4, travel to see relatives, businesses trying to get going, and now all this pain of Delta coming.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1272895

The delta variant is about 60 percent more transmissible than current dominant strain in the U.S., the alpha variant. That variant, first detected in the United Kingdom, was more contagious than the original virus.


The delta variant now accounts for a quarter of all new cases, and has been detected in all 50 states. Its rapid spread is sure to make it the dominant U.S. strain within the coming weeks, she said.

The seven-day average of new cases this week was about 12,600 cases, up 10 percent compared to last week's average, Walensky said.


So the gain may still be alpha, or it may be delta really asserting itself. time will tell.

Delta is taking over steadily.


Fascinating charts

Every state Alpha is rapidly on the decline. The growth is Delta.

Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, and Utah are having bad Delta spikes.

Getting ready for their turn is California, New York, and Texas.
https://news.yahoo.com/news/graphic-sho ... 37844.html

I wish they would stop talking fraction eligible vaccinated. As this has spread in kindergartens, the unvaccinated kids will ensure everyone gets exposed.

Since it seems to be all or nothing for households getting vaccinated, we'll see families knocked down in my opinion:

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/poll-rev ... 06905.html

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:09 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.


The US waves seem to be a bit ahead of the rest of the northern hemisphere, Canada and Europe for example. They had a spike in July and August and a small lull in the early fall with spikes happening in November last year. Canada and Europe largely did not see the second wave begin until well into September and the spike of hospitalizations not until late October/Early November with the peak pretty much being the same everywhere (early January, 2 weeks after Christmas).

My theory on this is there are a lot of places where in the summer its too hot to be outside. Sure you will golf and be at the beach on hot days but in the southern most states but no one wants to be out on a patio in Miami or Houston at high noon in July so you go inside. In the northeast and midwest people are outside in the summer because they have a real winter and only get a couple of months of patio weather so we are naturally outside delaying the second spike.

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.

Looking at this graph, even well vaccinated California has a spike:
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-i ... aph-2021-7

I am not surprised the spike in Western Colorado is spreading in Utah. Delta was spreading as Alpha declined. Now it has spread far enough to be an issue.

In high density urban areas of low vaccination, this new variant will take off.

Since kids are spreading this, it will be total level of vaccination that matters, not what fraction of adults.

My opinion is about 2% of the population cannot build an immunity. What I've read is that less than 1/(1+Ro) can be vulnerable. With an estimated Ro of 5, that means less than 15% of the population can be unvaccinated.

We are in for a wild summer.

Lightsaber


What evidence do you have that kids (those under 12 not eligible for vaccination) are the primary drivers of Covid spread? Schools haven't been a primary driver of Covid at all. They can't be excluded entirely but nearly all of the instances the outbreak in schools was generally low compared the community as a whole. If a specific area was a hot zone it increased transmission in the school but wasn't ever the primary driver of covid spread.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-schools ... 1613170571

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... ad-schools

All of the information I have seen that it is primarily 20-39 year old's that are the main drivers of the spread. Being the most social (the most likely to break rules) and more likely to work in essential workplaces that you can't work from home.

I didn't say primary drivers were kids. I said are spreading:

Kindergarten cluster:
Washoe county:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/break ... NewsSearch

They have four clusters going on:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/woman ... NewsSearch

Half of Delta variant in Israel in children;
https://news.yahoo.com/news/delta-varia ... 00226.html

So kids will spread this, even if just to classmates, teachers, parents, and care givers.

When classes restart the kids won't be vaccinated. :devil:

There was a breakout among kids in a Texas hospital. That sucks, the kids were there for "normal" reasons and were given Covid19. This is why, in my opinion, vaccines for all workers and visitors to hospitals must be mandatory.

https://www.khou.com/amp/article/news/h ... 282a2e0e9d

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:23 pm

Interesting link on Delta propogation.

57% of cases in the mountain states are Delta.
38% in California and Arizona.
It is still making its was to the east coast.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/effective-c ... 40353.html

Fun, fun. A spike is coming as the UK has shown, 49% of the population fully vaccinated doesn't slow Delta.

USA at 47%
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Topic Author
Posts: 13812
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:40 pm

https://news.yahoo.com/delta-variant-ca ... 59563.html

The Delta variant is ripping through parts of the US, causing more than 80% of new COVID-19 infections in four states, data shows.

The highly infectious Delta variant accounts for more than 80% of new coronavirus infections in Kansas, Arkansas, Connecticut, and Missouri, according to data compiled by Scripps Research's Outbreak.info, which is supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

In Missouri, more than 96% of new cases are caused by Delta, the data showed on Tuesday - the highest percentage of any US state. Outbreak.info takes data from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data.

These four states have vaccination rates below 40%.


The scary part of this is
1. The Delta Variant is beating out the original variant, even where vaccinations are not high percentage.
2. The areas where there is vaccination hesitancy, also are going to be the least likely to wear masks to prevent the spread
3. The rest of the country is trying to open up, and these areas risk closing down again.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4116
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 07, 2021 4:50 pm

casinterest wrote:
https://news.yahoo.com/delta-variant-causing-more-80-123559563.html

The Delta variant is ripping through parts of the US, causing more than 80% of new COVID-19 infections in four states, data shows.

The highly infectious Delta variant accounts for more than 80% of new coronavirus infections in Kansas, Arkansas, Connecticut, and Missouri, according to data compiled by Scripps Research's Outbreak.info, which is supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

In Missouri, more than 96% of new cases are caused by Delta, the data showed on Tuesday - the highest percentage of any US state. Outbreak.info takes data from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data.

These four states have vaccination rates below 40%.


The scary part of this is
1. The Delta Variant is beating out the original variant, even where vaccinations are not high percentage.
2. The areas where there is vaccination hesitancy, also are going to be the least likely to wear masks to prevent the spread
3. The rest of the country is trying to open up, and these areas risk closing down again.



To respond to point 1. The alpha variant become dominant over the initial variant in the winter/early spring this year. Most areas that had a spike in cases in the spring was attributed to the Alpha variant.
What we are seeing here is natural selection on an observable timescale and the most adaptable mutations are winning the battle for survival. Natural selection cannot be stopped.

This shouldn't concern the vaccinated. There have been no peer-reviewed studies that suggest and any of these variants cause more severe disease and what hasn't been said is that if you encounter covid in any form your body is going to gain immunity to that variant with the vaccine giving the body the head start so your illness is mild at the worst. Your body fights pathogens every day and you are none the wiser, a covid vaccine puts this trains your immune system to identify covid as one of these pathogens that the body can now fight.

Regarding the vaccine hesitancy, there are some people that aren't going to be convinced for whatever reason to get these shots. We can impede as much as possible but the messaging has been horrible. I live in Canada and many of public health officials should be fired because their communication general lack of compassion and paralyzing fear is now becoming very destructive. Since most of you are Americans Fauci is similar but actually less extreme. The fear initially made sense and it doesn't anymore and its impeding vaccinations.

The science says they work and we are told they work but the actions suggest that the public health community suggest that the vaccines actually don't work. Example being that in Ontario the test positivity rate is now under 1% with 75% of those over 12 with one dose of the vaccines and 45% or so with two (this is accelerating rapidly) where by the end of the summer Canada will probably be the most vaccinated nation.

Where I live still no gyms, indoor dining, mask mandates will remain (probably until 2022) where some provinces have opened up completely both liberally governed (BC) and conservative (Alberta). The US/Canada border is closed and will likely remain so because our government keeps moving the goalposts of vaccination numbers. (I'm hoping Biden aggressively fights Trudeau on this). Fauci said despite being vaccinated he wouldn't dine in he needs to say that this is his fear because many of us would have knowing full well the risk. The message being sent is that this is a super-bug that we can never deal with and the vaccines is just a temporary stop gap.

Now my parents (along with many other people) most who are financially comfortable say we can't be to aggressive to re-open. That is the mentality of people who are comfortable and have no worries or aspirations as they approach the final chapters of their lives. That is also the opinion of the government as the same generation makes up most of the government, they don't need to take risk. The Toronto mayor isn't a bad guy but is a comfortable woke elitist.

If you don't want to take risks, you want to hide in your home, you do so. Don't impede the rest of us especially if we are vaccinated. With vaccines now the health care system (which needs to be updated to have way more capacity) should hold any potential surge as it appears to be doing in the UK. Boris has now said, we have to live with this and some people will die from this virus but there is an inherit risk to living. Is a covid death more important that drug overdose or any of those 150 people in Surfside who died in their sleep or the hundreds who die in car accidents daily. The goal is to get Covid to this level as its not realistic to suggest that no one will die from this going forward. The common cold can kill people too.

The messaging for vaccines should be straight laced . "This virus is heavily contagious and can hospitalize and kill. Vaccines protect your from dying and entering the hospital by 90%-99%. We will all get exposed to this virus at some point so if you want a certain guarantee to stay out of the hospital or not dying get vaccinated."

But what about the side effect of vaccination?

"Is it true that some vaccines have had adverse effects on some people. With the AZ vaccine the chance of a blood clot is 1 in 50,000 but with Covid its 1 in 6. That is a roll of a dice. Heart inflammation also is very rare side effect of the vaccine but the risk of this happening with the virus is 100 times the risk (not sure of the actual odds here).

The risk is yours, we as a society have a duty to help you if you get this virus but the health care system can only assist so much and death and lingering effects can still occur even with hospital capacity.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:04 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
We can impede as much as possible but the messaging has been horrible. I live in Canada and many of public health officials should be fired because their communication general lack of compassion and paralyzing fear is now becoming very destructive. Since most of you are Americans Fauci is similar but actually less extreme. The fear initially made sense and it doesn't anymore and its impeding vaccinations.


Over done fear and politicizing is really hurting many Vaccine campaigns. Britain and Israel did a much better communication campaign.

I cannot wait to vaccinate my younger child.
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Topic Author
Posts: 13812
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
We can impede as much as possible but the messaging has been horrible. I live in Canada and many of public health officials should be fired because their communication general lack of compassion and paralyzing fear is now becoming very destructive. Since most of you are Americans Fauci is similar but actually less extreme. The fear initially made sense and it doesn't anymore and its impeding vaccinations.


Over done fear and politicizing is really hurting many Vaccine campaigns. Britain and Israel did a much better communication campaign.

I cannot wait to vaccinate my younger child.



Over done fear and politicizing is the campaign for many political organizations. There are agendas and political parties that prey on people that are susceptible to misinformation. Unfortunately in the US it has been predominantly the GOP strongholds and supporters that are voicing hesitancy. It is also reflected in the number of vaccinations. The issues in the US have been created over the years by pushing people that are susceptible to misinformation into echo chambers that reinforce that misinformation.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4116
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 07, 2021 9:17 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
We can impede as much as possible but the messaging has been horrible. I live in Canada and many of public health officials should be fired because their communication general lack of compassion and paralyzing fear is now becoming very destructive. Since most of you are Americans Fauci is similar but actually less extreme. The fear initially made sense and it doesn't anymore and its impeding vaccinations.


Over done fear and politicizing is really hurting many Vaccine campaigns. Britain and Israel did a much better communication campaign.

I cannot wait to vaccinate my younger child.



Over done fear and politicizing is the campaign for many political organizations. There are agendas and political parties that prey on people that are susceptible to misinformation. Unfortunately in the US it has been predominantly the GOP strongholds and supporters that are voicing hesitancy. It is also reflected in the number of vaccinations. The issues in the US have been created over the years by pushing people that are susceptible to misinformation into echo chambers that reinforce that misinformation.


In this case its not on the right only, they certainly are not blameless by continuing to say that this is a hoax or simply the flu and that this is some grand conspiracy.

There is much of it on the left where many liberals think that Covid is way more dangerous than it actually is. I have posted a Bill Maher clip stating that some on the left think that this virus hospitalizes 40% of who it infects. I am involved with the Yoga community which would be considered liberal and many smart people I know personally believe that in 10 years all of us who chose to take the vaccine will be seriously sick or dead simply because they don't trust vaccines.

These people are probably not worth convincing, its like convincing a 9/11 truther or a flat-earther.

However you have many people who don't think it makes sense or there is no urgency because the economy isn't going to open up soon and saying nothing is going to change isn't going to convince those hesitant people. Many who are healthy and young and are low risk to begin with. You want to know why vaccination is plateauing, constant fear mongering that a fall lockdown is basically already in the cards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bIlaJW4guU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nxrdj2ABHIU

Not Saagar here isn't liberal but not crazy by any means.

Here is a piece from Bill Maher stating the mis-information on both sides.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp3gy_CLXho
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
User avatar
casinterest
Topic Author
Posts: 13812
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:24 am

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Over done fear and politicizing is really hurting many Vaccine campaigns. Britain and Israel did a much better communication campaign.

I cannot wait to vaccinate my younger child.



Over done fear and politicizing is the campaign for many political organizations. There are agendas and political parties that prey on people that are susceptible to misinformation. Unfortunately in the US it has been predominantly the GOP strongholds and supporters that are voicing hesitancy. It is also reflected in the number of vaccinations. The issues in the US have been created over the years by pushing people that are susceptible to misinformation into echo chambers that reinforce that misinformation.


In this case its not on the right only, they certainly are not blameless by continuing to say that this is a hoax or simply the flu and that this is some grand conspiracy.

There is much of it on the left where many liberals think that Covid is way more dangerous than it actually is. I have posted a Bill Maher clip stating that some on the left think that this virus hospitalizes 40% of who it infects. I am involved with the Yoga community which would be considered liberal and many smart people I know personally believe that in 10 years all of us who chose to take the vaccine will be seriously sick or dead simply because they don't trust vaccines.

These people are probably not worth convincing, its like convincing a 9/11 truther or a flat-earther.

However you have many people who don't think it makes sense or there is no urgency because the economy isn't going to open up soon and saying nothing is going to change isn't going to convince those hesitant people. Many who are healthy and young and are low risk to begin with. You want to know why vaccination is plateauing, constant fear mongering that a fall lockdown is basically already in the cards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bIlaJW4guU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nxrdj2ABHIU

Not Saagar here isn't liberal but not crazy by any means.

Here is a piece from Bill Maher stating the mis-information on both sides.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp3gy_CLXho



The issue is in the numbers. their are always far left wingnuts, but at then end of the day it is a numbers game. Far more R's are abandoning the vaccine than D's. That is the critical issue . I would rather have people far more scared of the virus, than not. The death rate is far higher than cancer or heart disease. I can try to talk down those far more scared of the virus than i can talk up people that don't give a damn.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2645
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:18 am

Japan to declare virus emergency lasting through Olympics

https://apnews.com/article/japan-corona ... 444a52e57f

At a meeting with experts Thursday morning, government officials proposed a plan to issue a state of emergency in Tokyo from next Monday to Aug. 22. The Summer Olympics, already delayed a year by the pandemic, begin July 23 and close Aug. 8. The Games already will take place without foreign spectators, but the planned six-week state of emergency likely ends chances of a local audience.

A main focus of the emergency is a request for bars, restaurants and karaoke parlors serving alcohol to close. A ban on serving alcohol is a key step to tone down Olympic-related festivities and keep people from drinking and partying. Tokyo residents are expected to face stay-home requests and watch the Games on TV from home.

I'll be watching from home as well. Without a mask on.
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5671
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:38 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
Japan to declare virus emergency lasting through Olympics

https://apnews.com/article/japan-corona ... 444a52e57f

At a meeting with experts Thursday morning, government officials proposed a plan to issue a state of emergency in Tokyo from next Monday to Aug. 22. The Summer Olympics, already delayed a year by the pandemic, begin July 23 and close Aug. 8. The Games already will take place without foreign spectators, but the planned six-week state of emergency likely ends chances of a local audience.

A main focus of the emergency is a request for bars, restaurants and karaoke parlors serving alcohol to close. A ban on serving alcohol is a key step to tone down Olympic-related festivities and keep people from drinking and partying. Tokyo residents are expected to face stay-home requests and watch the Games on TV from home.

I'll be watching from home as well. Without a mask on.

- It's reported that, events hosted outside area closest to Tokyo will still have audience
- There seems to be dissatisfaction against restaurants and such bearing the blunt amid the emergency order while large commercial facilities and such aren't affected, and further increase question and lacl of will of complying with such government orders
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5671
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 9:09 am

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/7055e ... c83a1a7242
Japan: Japanese government was trying to ban restaurants in Tokyo from providing alcohol, but as doing so directly by the government could violate their post-WWII constitution, the government decided to ask banks and other financial organization to help urge compliance from restaurants and such. However it couldn't work out and the government retreated such proposal.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5671
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 1:37 pm

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/olympic/2020/ ... YT1T50086/
As most Olympics event in Japan have decided to organize with no audience allowed, IOC president Bach commented that the decision should be revisited if the infection situation improve, and claim that he found it hard to understand why audiences are being barred from Olympics despite there are other professional sports events that have been organized with audience.

As audience will not be welcomed at stadiums, and many local governments across Japan have also decided to cancel live watching events in their cities/towns, and numerous prefectures have also cancelled viewing event for school kids, the report say some of the kids might lost the chance in watching the Olympics, and the article claim it would cause a big question in the future on how to tell the future generation the significance and value of Olympic.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
proest
Posts: 43
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:05 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:42 am

Image

This happened in 7 days. Currently, 65.3% (81% of adults) has had a first, 39,9% a second (mostly Pfizer). For now heavy on young people, but it is already working itself up through the population (all under 70 are rising now). Soon rising will slow, simply because we're not able to conduct so many tests on a day.

Delta is real.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:47 pm

proest wrote:
Image

This happened in 7 days. Currently, 65.3% (81% of adults) has had a first, 39,9% a second (mostly Pfizer). For now heavy on young people, but it is already working itself up through the population (all under 70 are rising now). Soon rising will slow, simply because we're not able to conduct so many tests on a day.

Delta is real.

Wow, Just wow. I stopped looking at the Netherlands about 9 or 10 days ago as it ceased being of interest from a Covid19 perspective.

Everyone else.
Have a look at the countries of interest, although seems to be missing latest data points. :(
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

The USA and France are starting their turn up and no one should be smug vs. the UK, as they have good vaccine coverage with good vaccines (51% fully vaccinated vs. USA 48% vs. 42% Germany vs. the noted 39.9% of the Netherlands, vs. 36% france) for fully vaccinated. Unfortunately, Delta doesn't seem to care much if a person has 1 jab, it is the t-cells from jab two that, in my opinion, are doing the good work.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

The UAE and Chile aren't doing so well for such high vaccination rates. In my opinion all the attenuated virus vaccines need a booster ASAP.

Interesting time. Going from a slow burn to that level in a week for the Netherlands shows us how bad this virus can be.

Lightsaber

Late edit: I see Spain suddenly has a bad outbreak too. My heart goes out to those that don't have an option to vaccinate at least some of the children.
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:05 pm

Looks like next wave in India is starting.Medical authorities are asking to avoid large gathering, tourism and religious pilgrimages.

But it appears revenge tourism is in full swing, so does gatherings and pilgrimages.
https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-o ... 2021-07-12

On a lighter note there is a video of a kid asking tourists about masks.
https://scroll.in/video/999562/caught-o ... haramshala
All posts are just opinions.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:00 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Looks like next wave in India is starting.Medical authorities are asking to avoid large gathering, tourism and religious pilgrimages.

But it appears revenge tourism is in full swing, so does gatherings and pilgrimages.
https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-o ... 2021-07-12

On a lighter note there is a video of a kid asking tourists about masks.
https://scroll.in/video/999562/caught-o ... haramshala

Good news is no increase in cases, yet:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases

Bad news is the latest variants can go from nothing to a crisis in a week. Now, I wouldn't predict India has a problem that soon. I do think they will be back in crisis before the first official day of Autumn. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5671
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 11:16 am

GDB wrote:
This is a detailed look at this story, however it contains facts that can be verified, actual science and expertise, so really of no interest to anyone who would take seriously an American god bothering crooked weirdo like Pence.
Much less from the party of anti science, even less than that from anything that country club carnival barker spouts for cash, 21st century McCarthyism though sadly Carlson probably won't drink himself to death like the deranged Senator.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... eak-theory


The link you supplied say nothing against what Pence said
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5671
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 5:32 pm

Lifting England’s Covid rules while cases surge is ‘threat to the world’, due to risk of generating new variants, said scientists https://on.ft.com/3kvriz9
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Sun Jul 18, 2021 6:02 pm

Hospitalizations are up in some countries, not others.

I have a policy, everyone hides bad news. So any country not publishing data doesn't get my benefit of the doubt (I assume they are hiding a starting problem unless evidence to the contrary). I don't mind a little delay in the data as this is a slow disease.

That said, kudos to the countries that publish data. We see the USA is, unfortunately going up. From the 12,500 level we're now over 20,000 in the hospital due to coronavirus. The UK is about 2k, which when population adjusted is better off, I believe their slightly higher vaccination rate is helping (2nd link) keep people out of the hospital.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+dose%29

I'm very focused on the hospitals because the medical staff I know are burned out. They need a long break, which cannot happen if we surge again. While my friends will go back into the hospital, they all report nursing shortages. There was a nursing shortage before this and nurses have the most added work with coronavirus. They're exhausted.

c933103 wrote:
Lifting England’s Covid rules while cases surge is ‘threat to the world’, due to risk of generating new variants, said scientists https://on.ft.com/3kvriz9

Mutations happen due to mistakes. The number of mistakes in copying the virus is a function of how many are infected. England is a tiny portion of the vulnerable population. Far more will happen in, for example, Indonesia, than is possible in the UK.

We'll need vaccines for the next level down of proteins in the virus:
https://www.technologynetworks.com/prot ... tem-349882

Good news is we are building up the vaccine production infrastructure and changing the recipe is less dramatic than getting ready in the first place. Bad news, we will need boosters.

Right now the #1 issue is vaccine production (not enough).
#2 is vaccine hesitancy.

It is human nature to want to be social. Lockdowns and control processes always break down when they go for over 3 months.
When people are burned out, they just don't care.
Part of the problem, is my opinion, is the media has used panic to build up ratings for years and years. Now the population just filters that out.

We'll have to be more like France implementing mandatory vaccinations and proof of vaccination for activities. Oh well... I admit to being against this, but I can also see the inevitable.

Lightsabrer
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1978
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:22 am

Vaccination rates in Australia are low, due to a combination of supply and some AZ hesitancy due to the apparent overreaction to TTS risk. Thankfully our Pfizer supply will now be increasing, Moderna due at the end of the year. Two interesting points:
1. of the 24 people in intensive care in NSW (population 8 million), 23 are unvaccinated and one has a had single AZ dose. There are 84 people hospitalised from 1320 current cases of the Delta strain, including people under the age of 30. The youngest of the 1320 cases is 6yo
2. our Chief Health Officer has announced that vaccination rates now also need to urgently look to the non-adult population if we are to achieve coverage which combats the Delta strain.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/ Q100/200/E195/ 733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/ 320/321/332/333/345/359
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5671
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:01 am

lightsaber wrote:
England is a tiny portion of the vulnerable population. Far more will happen in, for example, Indonesia, than is possible in the UK.

England by lifting all measures, is going to allow uncontrolled spread. Which is not the case of other populous countries. If that end up infecting significant portion of the population, it could end uo with more case count than more populous countries
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15776
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:01 am

Sadly a toxic mix of politics, economic demands, that humans want to go back to 'normal' ASAP, practical limits on how fast vaccines can be made, the inability to yet vaccinate those under age 12 and the nature of diseases like Covid-19 is causing surges in infections in many countries.
It appears the Delta variant is more infectious but causes less severe symptoms and fewer deaths. In the USA, the overwhelming amount of new infections are with the unvaccinated, mostly in states or regions with low levels of vaccination due to anti-government, anti-science populations. To me it appears that the Covid-19 pandemic will like the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago, will persist for about 3 years, that is into 2023 when hopefully herd immunity or enough getting vaccinated occurs. Meanwhile social and economic havoc will continue.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:31 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Sadly a toxic mix of politics, economic demands, that humans want to go back to 'normal' ASAP, practical limits on how fast vaccines can be made, the inability to yet vaccinate those under age 12 and the nature of diseases like Covid-19 is causing surges in infections in many countries.
It appears the Delta variant is more infectious but causes less severe symptoms and fewer deaths. In the USA, the overwhelming amount of new infections are with the unvaccinated, mostly in states or regions with low levels of vaccination due to anti-government, anti-science populations. To me it appears that the Covid-19 pandemic will like the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago, will persist for about 3 years, that is into 2023 when hopefully herd immunity or enough getting vaccinated occurs. Meanwhile social and economic havoc will continue.


For economy to thrive, a country needs healthy people who can participate in the work force, earn money and buy stuff to keep the wheel spinning.

If people are dead or cannot work because of long covid, they are still burden on society. No way helping economy.

Even if the UK wants to achieve herd immunity, why not go with masks, will reduce viral load, more humans will be able to develop natural immunity without a run on hospital capacity.

Class room full of kids with no masks, that is a mutation factory.

Lot of people are wearing masks indoors here in the USA, even though there is no mandate. I hope folks in the UK will do the same.
All posts are just opinions.
 
JJJ
Posts: 4105
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:31 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Sadly a toxic mix of politics, economic demands, that humans want to go back to 'normal' ASAP, practical limits on how fast vaccines can be made, the inability to yet vaccinate those under age 12 and the nature of diseases like Covid-19 is causing surges in infections in many countries.
It appears the Delta variant is more infectious but causes less severe symptoms and fewer deaths. In the USA, the overwhelming amount of new infections are with the unvaccinated, mostly in states or regions with low levels of vaccination due to anti-government, anti-science populations. To me it appears that the Covid-19 pandemic will like the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago, will persist for about 3 years, that is into 2023 when hopefully herd immunity or enough getting vaccinated occurs. Meanwhile social and economic havoc will continue.


I saw a graph somewhere in twitter that compared the outcomes of highly vaccinated vs. low vaccinated countries with the new Delta spreading.

Long story short, both sets of countries saw spikes in cases. Low vaccinated countries are also seeing all-time or close highs in death.

Maybe someone can share it.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5671
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:10 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Sadly a toxic mix of politics, economic demands, that humans want to go back to 'normal' ASAP, practical limits on how fast vaccines can be made, the inability to yet vaccinate those under age 12 and the nature of diseases like Covid-19 is causing surges in infections in many countries.

1. Why do you describe them as a toxic mix, reality is always a balance of different factors
2. Why would desire to open up and normalkze limit vaccination rate
It appears the Delta variant is more infectious but causes less severe symptoms and fewer deaths. In the USA, the overwhelming amount of new infections are with the unvaccinated, mostly in states or regions with low levels of vaccination due to anti-government, anti-science populations.

The result of less severe symptoms and less death is due to vaccine instead of variant, most probably
To me it appears that the Covid-19 pandemic will like the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago, will persist for about 3 years, that is into 2023 when hopefully herd immunity or enough getting vaccinated occurs. Meanwhile social and economic havoc will continue.

The Spanish flu infected far more people than now
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
KFTG
Posts: 948
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:17 pm

The UK is making the right move. COVID is endemic, and never going away.
You either adapt to live with it, or your economic security and quality of life go out the window.
Adults in the room understand this. COVID is here to stay.
 
User avatar
Braybuddy
Posts: 6965
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 8:14 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:58 am

Just saw this very interesting article. Seems there's something worth investigating here:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -1.4625125
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:24 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
KFTG wrote:
The UK is making the right move. COVID is endemic, and never going away.
You either adapt to live with it, or your economic security and quality of life go out the window.
Adults in the room understand this. COVID is here to stay.

A comprehensive vaccination program can eliminate it. I fully expect the UK to mandate school vaccines and eventually entry/exit to require vaccination. As areas expel the virus, they will become more restrictive to entry. analogous to how the UK is rabies free

Measles is endemic to some areas and rare elsewhere. I expect stricter processes to control Covid19 in 2022.

The best adaptation is vaccines. I personally know doctors who have turned away ambulances with coronavirus patients when the hospital filled up instead of emergency staffing (which they cannot really do anymore); there isn't the empathy of before. One adaptation is rationing the amount of care for coronavirus. I don't know if it will ever be formalized, but I see it happening. e.g., ICUs limiting the number of coronaviruses beds to keep beds open for the other patients that need the ICU.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:59 pm

What fraction of coronavirus cases are children? Back in May it was 22% of confirmed cases, but a note many (most?) were asymptomatic. My impression is Delta and Lambda will hit kids much harder. Dies anyone have a good newer link?
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... hy-is-that

I believe children are now a major spreader of Delta, but I'd like to know Better than news stories of kids birthday parties spreading coronavirus:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/kids-bir ... 27934.html

Lightsaber
Late edit:
The study, published in JAMA Internal Medicine, found that within counties with high rates of COVID-19, families with birthdays two weeks prior had a 31% risk of getting COVID-19 compared to families with no birthdays.

While there seems to be a word or two missing in that quote, during lockdown, kids only picked up coronavirus from parents. Now it is social events and soon school. I'd like to know the incidence rate.
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:23 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I believe children are now a major spreader of Delta, but I'd like to know Better than news stories of kids birthday parties spreading coronavirus:


Lot of families are clueless and there is very little information on protecting <12 year olds.

Many families are going by their lives as if entire family is vaccinated, even though they have a <12 unvaccinated and unmasked kid.
All posts are just opinions.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:01 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I believe children are now a major spreader of Delta, but I'd like to know Better than news stories of kids birthday parties spreading coronavirus:


Lot of families are clueless and there is very little information on protecting <12 year olds.

Many families are going by their lives as if entire family is vaccinated, even though they have a <12 unvaccinated and unmasked kid.

Many families are pretending everyone is vaccinated. It is challenging as kids need far more social interaction than they had. My unvaccinated child plays with older vaccinated children with the agreement, with the parents, she only has playdates with families with vaccinated parents and I warn of any possibilities of exposure (which we had one, no playdates for 2 weeks).

There is so little information. I'm an expert on risk and I'm not certain of the best course of action. I have cutoff all interaction with unvaccinated adults to minimize risk to my child. I wear masks, even when not required.

Now about a booster... decisions, decisions...

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1978
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I believe children are now a major spreader of Delta, but I'd like to know Better than news stories of kids birthday parties spreading coronavirus:


Lot of families are clueless and there is very little information on protecting <12 year olds.

Many families are going by their lives as if entire family is vaccinated, even though they have a <12 unvaccinated and unmasked kid.

Many families are pretending everyone is vaccinated. It is challenging as kids need far more social interaction than they had. My unvaccinated child plays with older vaccinated children with the agreement, with the parents, she only has playdates with families with vaccinated parents and I warn of any possibilities of exposure (which we had one, no playdates for 2 weeks).

There is so little information. I'm an expert on risk and I'm not certain of the best course of action. I have cutoff all interaction with unvaccinated adults to minimize risk to my child. I wear masks, even when not required.

Now about a booster... decisions, decisions...

Lightsaber


My wife is now fully vaccinated, and I will be next week (noting the coverage development period post AZ second shot). Australia is now experiencing the greater transmissability of Delta, with 3/4 of the national population under some form of lockdown. A small number of single digit age children are amongst the cases, although the youngest hospitalised is in their 20s.

Until Delta, we have been reasonably comfortable that young people are OK, but our criminally slow vacccine rollout (supply being the major issue) means that even my 18yo is unlikely to be vaccinated before the end of the year, and we don't yet have vaccines approved for under 16, let alone under 12 (my youngest is 14). Schools are a potential infection nightmare, and I suspect health authorities are still grappling with this as we struggle to get back to elimination.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/ Q100/200/E195/ 733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/ 320/321/332/333/345/359
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2645
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:27 am

Two planes full of Democratic reps from Texas fly to DC with no masks on. Not a mask story for the MSM...

But -one- (R) Congressman flies on a plane from DC to Texas without a mask....

And that's ---A Story--- to run with for the MSM.

But there's no selective coverage / selective outrage of topics by the many outlets of the MSM... ;)

https://apnews.com/article/tx-state-wir ... 3635b36ebe
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:36 am

Kent350787 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Lot of families are clueless and there is very little information on protecting <12 year olds.

Many families are going by their lives as if entire family is vaccinated, even though they have a <12 unvaccinated and unmasked kid.

Many families are pretending everyone is vaccinated. It is challenging as kids need far more social interaction than they had. My unvaccinated child plays with older vaccinated children with the agreement, with the parents, she only has playdates with families with vaccinated parents and I warn of any possibilities of exposure (which we had one, no playdates for 2 weeks).

There is so little information. I'm an expert on risk and I'm not certain of the best course of action. I have cutoff all interaction with unvaccinated adults to minimize risk to my child. I wear masks, even when not required.

Now about a booster... decisions, decisions...

Lightsaber


My wife is now fully vaccinated, and I will be next week (noting the coverage development period post AZ second shot). Australia is now experiencing the greater transmissability of Delta, with 3/4 of the national population under some form of lockdown. A small number of single digit age children are amongst the cases, although the youngest hospitalised is in their 20s.

Until Delta, we have been reasonably comfortable that young people are OK, but our criminally slow vacccine rollout (supply being the major issue) means that even my 18yo is unlikely to be vaccinated before the end of the year, and we don't yet have vaccines approved for under 16, let alone under 12 (my youngest is 14). Schools are a potential infection nightmare, and I suspect health authorities are still grappling with this as we struggle to get back to elimination.

Come fall, schools will be a crazy tough decision. Locally, too many good students are disengaging from the isolation.

More kids are getting Covid19. For most, a minor illness. But how many might have long haul symptoms, e.g., I lost some of my taste. After so long, I must start accepting I might not regain the lost taste (fats, e.g., cheese, deserts, bacon, and all steak tastes like serloin).

I feel for people going through lockdown. I'm quite certain it couldn't be enforced again here in California. Laws don't matter, at least a third of people proudly do not wear masks despite the requirement return. It shall be an interesting winter.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1978
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:39 am

Apart from the pages of links across a range of news outlets when I search about the maskless Democrats, especially how it's come back to bite them, surely the key difference is the private aircraft for the Dems versus the full public flight of the GoP guy.

Both were bad, and lack of masks undercut the valid action of the Dems against GoP moves to restrict voting. But maskless on a public flight is a complete dick move.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/ Q100/200/E195/ 733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/ 320/321/332/333/345/359
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5671
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:13 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Apart from the pages of links across a range of news outlets when I search about the maskless Democrats, especially how it's come back to bite them, surely the key difference is the private aircraft for the Dems versus the full public flight of the GoP guy.

Both were bad, and lack of masks undercut the valid action of the Dems against GoP moves to restrict voting. But maskless on a public flight is a complete dick move.

Even if the flight is private, it would still involve flight crews who aren't part of that private group
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1978
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:07 am

c933103 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Apart from the pages of links across a range of news outlets when I search about the maskless Democrats, especially how it's come back to bite them, surely the key difference is the private aircraft for the Dems versus the full public flight of the GoP guy.

Both were bad, and lack of masks undercut the valid action of the Dems against GoP moves to restrict voting. But maskless on a public flight is a complete dick move.

Even if the flight is private, it would still involve flight crews who aren't part of that private group


And who knows where the subsequent infection came from. Are masks mandated on private flights as they are on RPT services?

No question that one of the simplest infection control mechanisms was not followed in either case. But to allege that the Dems maskless were ignored by the trusted is untrue, partisan whataboutism and ignoring the non-Covid aims of one group.

To this observer from the other side of the world, the whole thing is incomprehensible - the blatant attack on what even the US considers to be democracy, and the shunning of Covid-safe practices by many.
Last edited by Kent350787 on Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/ Q100/200/E195/ 733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/ 320/321/332/333/345/359
 
User avatar
ptrouton
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:35 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:34 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
We are well past glaze over point for most people. I agree you are correct in the science, but to facilitate helpful conversations, this must related to something people understand. And sometimes one variation isn't of concern unless it is... dum dum dum (ominous music) it is a "double variant."

Lightsaber


There is a reason Darwin is correct and his peers were proven wrong over time.

Mutations, natural selection, predation and human capability of artificial selection.

Mutations are random, mutations occur while replicating. natural selection decides survival. Vaccines, masks and physical distance are predators for COVID-19.

More replication, more mutations.

We the humans are the hosts are facilitating replication
We the humans artificially selected it to spread the virus rather than using available predators.


I think I agree with you, because not every human being pays attention to all social distance and thus potentially contributes to the emergence of new mutations. For example, the Delta mutation, which has already been seen in Europe, is predicted to be threatened by a new wave of lockdowns around the world by early September. Also, in some news resources, I read about the recently appeared mutation "Epsilon" which is still little studied.
paper help in time from service which can do my essay
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5671
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:55 am

Japan PM Suga said in Interview:
- Japan have little coronavirus case compares to the west and have better pandemic control measure, thus he think letting the Tokyo Olympic open is a correct judgement.
- For example, countries like UK have tens of thousand new infection each day, but they can still organize Wimbledon tennis match and European football championship, packed with audience and with no masks.
- In contrast, Japan have an order of magnitude less case count, vaccination effort is also progressing, and infection prevention measures are also enforced more strictly, with almost everyone in Japan being masked, and thus he think the Japan is ready for Olympic
- Suga said it is important for those 50,000 coming into Japan from foreign countries for Olympic, including athletes, wear masks, as speaking without masks is the easiest way to spread infection.
- He claim there are also people close to him who think it is the best for the Olympic to terminate, and was being recommended such countless of time. But he think it is the easiest and simplest solution to cancel the game, however government's role is to challenge it.
- He said that despite Tokyo is now in emergency status declaration, it is not lockdown, and everyone essentially continues their regular daily life, with the main measure being stopping alcohol supply at restaurants and ask them to close down earlier at night
- With Japan's infection rate is now 25% US's rate per capita, and as vaccination campaign progress with 60% elderly and 22% entire population vaccinated, death have also been reduced significantly at 1/7 the current US death rate, Suga claim while Japan's situation is clear in the data itself, he think he should also tell the world about it.
- Suga disagree with the view that Japan is being held "hostage" by IOC. He said that's because it was Japan itself who requested the right to organize the Olympic in the first place, and claim if IOC try to push something they can push back.
- Suga believe that as the Olympic start and citizens watch it on TV, they will change their mind on the event, claim that the moment when Japanese athletes won medal in 1964 Tokyo Olympic is still right on his eyes, with the excitement and sensation of the time.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6399317
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:30 pm

Politicians have been hypocrites the whole time A birthday at the French laundry, hair salons... I'm tired of the strict tribalism. It wasn't one party or the other, it was both that failed us during COVID-19, in my opinion.

It will be an interesting winter this year. The vaccination rate for adults has dramatically slowed. Perhaps college vaccination requirements will help? It is my opinion a well distributed child's vaccine would slow the spread dramatically.

lI stopped watching TV after my Thanksgiving football was a political lecture instead of relaxing, so I went jogging on the beach instead and I won't be watching TV for the Olympics as I discovered life is better without TV.

This is an aviation blog. I am sad as to the 5-year future I see for international travel due to coronavirus. While this is the non-aviation thread, those hotspots we see forming will inhibit aviation.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4116
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Politicians have been hypocrites the whole time A birthday at the French laundry, hair salons... I'm tired of the strict tribalism. It wasn't one party or the other, it was both that failed us during COVID-19, in my opinion.

It will be an interesting winter this year. The vaccination rate for adults has dramatically slowed. Perhaps college vaccination requirements will help? It is my opinion a well distributed child's vaccine would slow the spread dramatically.

lI stopped watching TV after my Thanksgiving football was a political lecture instead of relaxing, so I went jogging on the beach instead and I won't be watching TV for the Olympics as I discovered life is better without TV.

This is an aviation blog. I am sad as to the 5-year future I see for international travel due to coronavirus. While this is the non-aviation thread, those hotspots we see forming will inhibit aviation.

Lightsaber


There is a difference though and hypocrisy is one of those unforgivable sins and should be punished more.

I am no conservative but many GOP politicians are against lockdowns so I don't give a hoot what Ron DeSantis or Greg Abbott does as they aren't restricting their citizens. Sure the GOP are hypocrites in dozens of other ways but not when it comes to Covid restrictions.

Gavin Newsom did a harsh lockdown in California and exempted a lot of his donors who aren't essential (film industry for example). Then he goes to that dinner at the French Laundry and lies about being outside when he was inside. Same with Pelosi at the salon when they were all ordered closed in San Francisco. Mayor of Austin doing a stay home video from Cabo.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22673
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:51 pm

Locally, the positivity rate has broken 5% in greater Los Angeles. I believe strongly you need to test 20x more than you find to have a good understanding of the disease spread:
http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/ ... /index.htm

I like to benchmark deaths versus local gang crime, coronavirus deaths are comparatively really low (see above link for Coronavirus, below for homicides, which for some reason they aren't calling gang crime like it is, in my opinion):
https://www.dailynews.com/2021/05/07/lo ... -4-months/

The daily number of coronavirus hospitalized cases though is growing. Which means... deaths will follow with a few weeks delay, mitigated by the fraction of the population vaccinated.

I know some areas are worse, but everything is local. If you haven't get the vaccine.

Its looking more and more like men who had a fever are coming out with reduced fertility as a long haul coronavirus symptom. You would think that would get people vaccinated...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7978437/


Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
ArchGuy1
Posts: 1927
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:35 pm

Protests in France Over COVID-19 Health Pass

Sun Aug 01, 2021 1:55 am

Protests across France, including Paris have taken place due to COVID-19 health passes being mandatory to enter certain venues. More than 200,000 protestors marched aganist the COVID-19 health policy and most protests were peaceful, though some became violent. These measures are in place to compell more people in France to get vaccinated as only 47 percent of the population has been vaccinated. Would not be surprised if some of those people view COVID-19 as a hoax.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... pass%3famp
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 15605
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Protests in France Over COVID-19 Health Pass

Sun Aug 01, 2021 1:56 am

In another country this would be bigger news, but it's France, so...
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: casinterest and 27 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos