Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
casinterest wrote:Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.
lightsaber wrote:casinterest wrote:Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.
Looking at this graph, even well vaccinated California has a spike:
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-i ... aph-2021-7
I am not surprised the spike in Western Colorado is spreading in Utah. Delta was spreading as Alpha declined. Now it has spread far enough to be an issue.
In high density urban areas of low vaccination, this new variant will take off.
Since kids are spreading this, it will be total level of vaccination that matters, not what fraction of adults.
My opinion is about 2% of the population cannot build an immunity. What I've read is that less than 1/(1+Ro) can be vulnerable. With an estimated Ro of 5, that means less than 15% of the population can be unvaccinated.
We are in for a wild summer.
Lightsaber
The delta variant is about 60 percent more transmissible than current dominant strain in the U.S., the alpha variant. That variant, first detected in the United Kingdom, was more contagious than the original virus.
The delta variant now accounts for a quarter of all new cases, and has been detected in all 50 states. Its rapid spread is sure to make it the dominant U.S. strain within the coming weeks, she said.
The seven-day average of new cases this week was about 12,600 cases, up 10 percent compared to last week's average, Walensky said.
casinterest wrote:Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.
lightsaber wrote:casinterest wrote:Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.
Looking at this graph, even well vaccinated California has a spike:
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-i ... aph-2021-7
I am not surprised the spike in Western Colorado is spreading in Utah. Delta was spreading as Alpha declined. Now it has spread far enough to be an issue.
In high density urban areas of low vaccination, this new variant will take off.
Since kids are spreading this, it will be total level of vaccination that matters, not what fraction of adults.
My opinion is about 2% of the population cannot build an immunity. What I've read is that less than 1/(1+Ro) can be vulnerable. With an estimated Ro of 5, that means less than 15% of the population can be unvaccinated.
We are in for a wild summer.
Lightsaber
casinterest wrote:lightsaber wrote:casinterest wrote:Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.
Looking at this graph, even well vaccinated California has a spike:
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-i ... aph-2021-7
I am not surprised the spike in Western Colorado is spreading in Utah. Delta was spreading as Alpha declined. Now it has spread far enough to be an issue.
In high density urban areas of low vaccination, this new variant will take off.
Since kids are spreading this, it will be total level of vaccination that matters, not what fraction of adults.
My opinion is about 2% of the population cannot build an immunity. What I've read is that less than 1/(1+Ro) can be vulnerable. With an estimated Ro of 5, that means less than 15% of the population can be unvaccinated.
We are in for a wild summer.
Lightsaber
We are headed for an interesting summer. July 4, travel to see relatives, businesses trying to get going, and now all this pain of Delta coming.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1272895The delta variant is about 60 percent more transmissible than current dominant strain in the U.S., the alpha variant. That variant, first detected in the United Kingdom, was more contagious than the original virus.
The delta variant now accounts for a quarter of all new cases, and has been detected in all 50 states. Its rapid spread is sure to make it the dominant U.S. strain within the coming weeks, she said.
The seven-day average of new cases this week was about 12,600 cases, up 10 percent compared to last week's average, Walensky said.
So the gain may still be alpha, or it may be delta really asserting itself. time will tell.
StarAC17 wrote:casinterest wrote:Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.
The US waves seem to be a bit ahead of the rest of the northern hemisphere, Canada and Europe for example. They had a spike in July and August and a small lull in the early fall with spikes happening in November last year. Canada and Europe largely did not see the second wave begin until well into September and the spike of hospitalizations not until late October/Early November with the peak pretty much being the same everywhere (early January, 2 weeks after Christmas).
My theory on this is there are a lot of places where in the summer its too hot to be outside. Sure you will golf and be at the beach on hot days but in the southern most states but no one wants to be out on a patio in Miami or Houston at high noon in July so you go inside. In the northeast and midwest people are outside in the summer because they have a real winter and only get a couple of months of patio weather so we are naturally outside delaying the second spike.lightsaber wrote:casinterest wrote:Some strong rises are starting to show up in the US daily cases. Missouri, has two days of 1200 Plus cases. Other states are starting to rise as well going into the 4th holiday weekend. (Georgia, Ohio, Arkansas)
We could be looking at the rise of the delta variant.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks.
Looking at this graph, even well vaccinated California has a spike:
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-i ... aph-2021-7
I am not surprised the spike in Western Colorado is spreading in Utah. Delta was spreading as Alpha declined. Now it has spread far enough to be an issue.
In high density urban areas of low vaccination, this new variant will take off.
Since kids are spreading this, it will be total level of vaccination that matters, not what fraction of adults.
My opinion is about 2% of the population cannot build an immunity. What I've read is that less than 1/(1+Ro) can be vulnerable. With an estimated Ro of 5, that means less than 15% of the population can be unvaccinated.
We are in for a wild summer.
Lightsaber
What evidence do you have that kids (those under 12 not eligible for vaccination) are the primary drivers of Covid spread? Schools haven't been a primary driver of Covid at all. They can't be excluded entirely but nearly all of the instances the outbreak in schools was generally low compared the community as a whole. If a specific area was a hot zone it increased transmission in the school but wasn't ever the primary driver of covid spread.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-schools ... 1613170571
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... ad-schools
All of the information I have seen that it is primarily 20-39 year old's that are the main drivers of the spread. Being the most social (the most likely to break rules) and more likely to work in essential workplaces that you can't work from home.
The Delta variant is ripping through parts of the US, causing more than 80% of new COVID-19 infections in four states, data shows.
The highly infectious Delta variant accounts for more than 80% of new coronavirus infections in Kansas, Arkansas, Connecticut, and Missouri, according to data compiled by Scripps Research's Outbreak.info, which is supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
In Missouri, more than 96% of new cases are caused by Delta, the data showed on Tuesday - the highest percentage of any US state. Outbreak.info takes data from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data.
These four states have vaccination rates below 40%.
casinterest wrote:https://news.yahoo.com/delta-variant-causing-more-80-123559563.htmlThe Delta variant is ripping through parts of the US, causing more than 80% of new COVID-19 infections in four states, data shows.
The highly infectious Delta variant accounts for more than 80% of new coronavirus infections in Kansas, Arkansas, Connecticut, and Missouri, according to data compiled by Scripps Research's Outbreak.info, which is supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
In Missouri, more than 96% of new cases are caused by Delta, the data showed on Tuesday - the highest percentage of any US state. Outbreak.info takes data from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data.
These four states have vaccination rates below 40%.
The scary part of this is
1. The Delta Variant is beating out the original variant, even where vaccinations are not high percentage.
2. The areas where there is vaccination hesitancy, also are going to be the least likely to wear masks to prevent the spread
3. The rest of the country is trying to open up, and these areas risk closing down again.
StarAC17 wrote:We can impede as much as possible but the messaging has been horrible. I live in Canada and many of public health officials should be fired because their communication general lack of compassion and paralyzing fear is now becoming very destructive. Since most of you are Americans Fauci is similar but actually less extreme. The fear initially made sense and it doesn't anymore and its impeding vaccinations.
lightsaber wrote:StarAC17 wrote:We can impede as much as possible but the messaging has been horrible. I live in Canada and many of public health officials should be fired because their communication general lack of compassion and paralyzing fear is now becoming very destructive. Since most of you are Americans Fauci is similar but actually less extreme. The fear initially made sense and it doesn't anymore and its impeding vaccinations.
Over done fear and politicizing is really hurting many Vaccine campaigns. Britain and Israel did a much better communication campaign.
I cannot wait to vaccinate my younger child.
casinterest wrote:lightsaber wrote:StarAC17 wrote:We can impede as much as possible but the messaging has been horrible. I live in Canada and many of public health officials should be fired because their communication general lack of compassion and paralyzing fear is now becoming very destructive. Since most of you are Americans Fauci is similar but actually less extreme. The fear initially made sense and it doesn't anymore and its impeding vaccinations.
Over done fear and politicizing is really hurting many Vaccine campaigns. Britain and Israel did a much better communication campaign.
I cannot wait to vaccinate my younger child.
Over done fear and politicizing is the campaign for many political organizations. There are agendas and political parties that prey on people that are susceptible to misinformation. Unfortunately in the US it has been predominantly the GOP strongholds and supporters that are voicing hesitancy. It is also reflected in the number of vaccinations. The issues in the US have been created over the years by pushing people that are susceptible to misinformation into echo chambers that reinforce that misinformation.
StarAC17 wrote:casinterest wrote:lightsaber wrote:Over done fear and politicizing is really hurting many Vaccine campaigns. Britain and Israel did a much better communication campaign.
I cannot wait to vaccinate my younger child.
Over done fear and politicizing is the campaign for many political organizations. There are agendas and political parties that prey on people that are susceptible to misinformation. Unfortunately in the US it has been predominantly the GOP strongholds and supporters that are voicing hesitancy. It is also reflected in the number of vaccinations. The issues in the US have been created over the years by pushing people that are susceptible to misinformation into echo chambers that reinforce that misinformation.
In this case its not on the right only, they certainly are not blameless by continuing to say that this is a hoax or simply the flu and that this is some grand conspiracy.
There is much of it on the left where many liberals think that Covid is way more dangerous than it actually is. I have posted a Bill Maher clip stating that some on the left think that this virus hospitalizes 40% of who it infects. I am involved with the Yoga community which would be considered liberal and many smart people I know personally believe that in 10 years all of us who chose to take the vaccine will be seriously sick or dead simply because they don't trust vaccines.
These people are probably not worth convincing, its like convincing a 9/11 truther or a flat-earther.
However you have many people who don't think it makes sense or there is no urgency because the economy isn't going to open up soon and saying nothing is going to change isn't going to convince those hesitant people. Many who are healthy and young and are low risk to begin with. You want to know why vaccination is plateauing, constant fear mongering that a fall lockdown is basically already in the cards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bIlaJW4guU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nxrdj2ABHIU
Not Saagar here isn't liberal but not crazy by any means.
Here is a piece from Bill Maher stating the mis-information on both sides.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp3gy_CLXho
DIRECTFLT wrote:Japan to declare virus emergency lasting through Olympics
https://apnews.com/article/japan-corona ... 444a52e57f
At a meeting with experts Thursday morning, government officials proposed a plan to issue a state of emergency in Tokyo from next Monday to Aug. 22. The Summer Olympics, already delayed a year by the pandemic, begin July 23 and close Aug. 8. The Games already will take place without foreign spectators, but the planned six-week state of emergency likely ends chances of a local audience.
A main focus of the emergency is a request for bars, restaurants and karaoke parlors serving alcohol to close. A ban on serving alcohol is a key step to tone down Olympic-related festivities and keep people from drinking and partying. Tokyo residents are expected to face stay-home requests and watch the Games on TV from home.
I'll be watching from home as well. Without a mask on.
proest wrote:
This happened in 7 days. Currently, 65.3% (81% of adults) has had a first, 39,9% a second (mostly Pfizer). For now heavy on young people, but it is already working itself up through the population (all under 70 are rising now). Soon rising will slow, simply because we're not able to conduct so many tests on a day.
Delta is real.
dtw2hyd wrote:Looks like next wave in India is starting.Medical authorities are asking to avoid large gathering, tourism and religious pilgrimages.
But it appears revenge tourism is in full swing, so does gatherings and pilgrimages.
https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-o ... 2021-07-12
On a lighter note there is a video of a kid asking tourists about masks.
https://scroll.in/video/999562/caught-o ... haramshala
GDB wrote:This is a detailed look at this story, however it contains facts that can be verified, actual science and expertise, so really of no interest to anyone who would take seriously an American god bothering crooked weirdo like Pence.
Much less from the party of anti science, even less than that from anything that country club carnival barker spouts for cash, 21st century McCarthyism though sadly Carlson probably won't drink himself to death like the deranged Senator.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... eak-theory
c933103 wrote:Lifting England’s Covid rules while cases surge is ‘threat to the world’, due to risk of generating new variants, said scientists https://on.ft.com/3kvriz9
lightsaber wrote:England is a tiny portion of the vulnerable population. Far more will happen in, for example, Indonesia, than is possible in the UK.
ltbewr wrote:Sadly a toxic mix of politics, economic demands, that humans want to go back to 'normal' ASAP, practical limits on how fast vaccines can be made, the inability to yet vaccinate those under age 12 and the nature of diseases like Covid-19 is causing surges in infections in many countries.
It appears the Delta variant is more infectious but causes less severe symptoms and fewer deaths. In the USA, the overwhelming amount of new infections are with the unvaccinated, mostly in states or regions with low levels of vaccination due to anti-government, anti-science populations. To me it appears that the Covid-19 pandemic will like the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago, will persist for about 3 years, that is into 2023 when hopefully herd immunity or enough getting vaccinated occurs. Meanwhile social and economic havoc will continue.
ltbewr wrote:Sadly a toxic mix of politics, economic demands, that humans want to go back to 'normal' ASAP, practical limits on how fast vaccines can be made, the inability to yet vaccinate those under age 12 and the nature of diseases like Covid-19 is causing surges in infections in many countries.
It appears the Delta variant is more infectious but causes less severe symptoms and fewer deaths. In the USA, the overwhelming amount of new infections are with the unvaccinated, mostly in states or regions with low levels of vaccination due to anti-government, anti-science populations. To me it appears that the Covid-19 pandemic will like the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago, will persist for about 3 years, that is into 2023 when hopefully herd immunity or enough getting vaccinated occurs. Meanwhile social and economic havoc will continue.
ltbewr wrote:Sadly a toxic mix of politics, economic demands, that humans want to go back to 'normal' ASAP, practical limits on how fast vaccines can be made, the inability to yet vaccinate those under age 12 and the nature of diseases like Covid-19 is causing surges in infections in many countries.
It appears the Delta variant is more infectious but causes less severe symptoms and fewer deaths. In the USA, the overwhelming amount of new infections are with the unvaccinated, mostly in states or regions with low levels of vaccination due to anti-government, anti-science populations.
To me it appears that the Covid-19 pandemic will like the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago, will persist for about 3 years, that is into 2023 when hopefully herd immunity or enough getting vaccinated occurs. Meanwhile social and economic havoc will continue.
KFTG wrote:The UK is making the right move. COVID is endemic, and never going away.
You either adapt to live with it, or your economic security and quality of life go out the window.
Adults in the room understand this. COVID is here to stay.
lightsaber wrote:I believe children are now a major spreader of Delta, but I'd like to know Better than news stories of kids birthday parties spreading coronavirus:
dtw2hyd wrote:lightsaber wrote:I believe children are now a major spreader of Delta, but I'd like to know Better than news stories of kids birthday parties spreading coronavirus:
Lot of families are clueless and there is very little information on protecting <12 year olds.
Many families are going by their lives as if entire family is vaccinated, even though they have a <12 unvaccinated and unmasked kid.
lightsaber wrote:dtw2hyd wrote:lightsaber wrote:I believe children are now a major spreader of Delta, but I'd like to know Better than news stories of kids birthday parties spreading coronavirus:
Lot of families are clueless and there is very little information on protecting <12 year olds.
Many families are going by their lives as if entire family is vaccinated, even though they have a <12 unvaccinated and unmasked kid.
Many families are pretending everyone is vaccinated. It is challenging as kids need far more social interaction than they had. My unvaccinated child plays with older vaccinated children with the agreement, with the parents, she only has playdates with families with vaccinated parents and I warn of any possibilities of exposure (which we had one, no playdates for 2 weeks).
There is so little information. I'm an expert on risk and I'm not certain of the best course of action. I have cutoff all interaction with unvaccinated adults to minimize risk to my child. I wear masks, even when not required.
Now about a booster... decisions, decisions...
Lightsaber
Kent350787 wrote:lightsaber wrote:dtw2hyd wrote:
Lot of families are clueless and there is very little information on protecting <12 year olds.
Many families are going by their lives as if entire family is vaccinated, even though they have a <12 unvaccinated and unmasked kid.
Many families are pretending everyone is vaccinated. It is challenging as kids need far more social interaction than they had. My unvaccinated child plays with older vaccinated children with the agreement, with the parents, she only has playdates with families with vaccinated parents and I warn of any possibilities of exposure (which we had one, no playdates for 2 weeks).
There is so little information. I'm an expert on risk and I'm not certain of the best course of action. I have cutoff all interaction with unvaccinated adults to minimize risk to my child. I wear masks, even when not required.
Now about a booster... decisions, decisions...
Lightsaber
My wife is now fully vaccinated, and I will be next week (noting the coverage development period post AZ second shot). Australia is now experiencing the greater transmissability of Delta, with 3/4 of the national population under some form of lockdown. A small number of single digit age children are amongst the cases, although the youngest hospitalised is in their 20s.
Until Delta, we have been reasonably comfortable that young people are OK, but our criminally slow vacccine rollout (supply being the major issue) means that even my 18yo is unlikely to be vaccinated before the end of the year, and we don't yet have vaccines approved for under 16, let alone under 12 (my youngest is 14). Schools are a potential infection nightmare, and I suspect health authorities are still grappling with this as we struggle to get back to elimination.
Kent350787 wrote:Apart from the pages of links across a range of news outlets when I search about the maskless Democrats, especially how it's come back to bite them, surely the key difference is the private aircraft for the Dems versus the full public flight of the GoP guy.
Both were bad, and lack of masks undercut the valid action of the Dems against GoP moves to restrict voting. But maskless on a public flight is a complete dick move.
c933103 wrote:Kent350787 wrote:Apart from the pages of links across a range of news outlets when I search about the maskless Democrats, especially how it's come back to bite them, surely the key difference is the private aircraft for the Dems versus the full public flight of the GoP guy.
Both were bad, and lack of masks undercut the valid action of the Dems against GoP moves to restrict voting. But maskless on a public flight is a complete dick move.
Even if the flight is private, it would still involve flight crews who aren't part of that private group
dtw2hyd wrote:lightsaber wrote:We are well past glaze over point for most people. I agree you are correct in the science, but to facilitate helpful conversations, this must related to something people understand. And sometimes one variation isn't of concern unless it is... dum dum dum (ominous music) it is a "double variant."
Lightsaber
There is a reason Darwin is correct and his peers were proven wrong over time.
Mutations, natural selection, predation and human capability of artificial selection.
Mutations are random, mutations occur while replicating. natural selection decides survival. Vaccines, masks and physical distance are predators for COVID-19.
More replication, more mutations.
We the humans are the hosts are facilitating replication
We the humans artificially selected it to spread the virus rather than using available predators.
lightsaber wrote:Politicians have been hypocrites the whole time A birthday at the French laundry, hair salons... I'm tired of the strict tribalism. It wasn't one party or the other, it was both that failed us during COVID-19, in my opinion.
It will be an interesting winter this year. The vaccination rate for adults has dramatically slowed. Perhaps college vaccination requirements will help? It is my opinion a well distributed child's vaccine would slow the spread dramatically.
lI stopped watching TV after my Thanksgiving football was a political lecture instead of relaxing, so I went jogging on the beach instead and I won't be watching TV for the Olympics as I discovered life is better without TV.
This is an aviation blog. I am sad as to the 5-year future I see for international travel due to coronavirus. While this is the non-aviation thread, those hotspots we see forming will inhibit aviation.
Lightsaber