lightsaber wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Assuming R0=3 for initial variant, 2.6x more transmissible mean R0=7.8? Mean even with 100% vaccine efficiency against the variant, it will still require 87% individuals vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, and if 90% effectiveness then 97% vaccination rate would be required?

If the delta variant really is that easily transmissible, we’re looking at many years of COVID-background. COVID-zero becomes absolutely impossible in even the medium term, and maybe ever. Just like “there’s no cure for the common cold.”

Measles was worse. While one varriant, the vaccines work. We just need a high global vaccination rate.

Speaking of colds (and flus), when mRNA vaccines are available, I will sign up. We could reduce infections.

I expect employers to increase mandates.

Lightsaber

Measles is not a great comparison. For most people, two doses is enough to protect for a lifetime. Typically, the measles vaccinations are completed before 2 years of age. Only susceptible adults are given shots later in life.

COVID-19 will likely require annual or even twice-per-year injections, for many years to come. We've all observed how poor the uptake of the annual flu shot is. I expect that the future uptake of COVID-19 vaccines is going to be worse than in 2021 and 2022.

As to colds and influenza, as well as a myriad of other serious (especially tropical) illnesses, I too have great hope for the promise of mRNA vaccines. The thing I love about vaccines is that, unlike medicines like antibiotics, we are still giving our immune systems a workout when we get vaccinated. It's a rare medical win-win.

aerolimani wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

If the delta variant really is that easily transmissible, we’re looking at many years of COVID-background. COVID-zero becomes absolutely impossible in even the medium term, and maybe ever. Just like “there’s no cure for the common cold.”

Measles was worse. While one varriant, the vaccines work. We just need a high global vaccination rate.

Speaking of colds (and flus), when mRNA vaccines are available, I will sign up. We could reduce infections.

I expect employers to increase mandates.

Lightsaber

Measles is not a great comparison. For most people, two doses is enough to protect for a lifetime. Typically, the measles vaccinations are completed before 2 years of age. Only susceptible adults are given shots later in life.

COVID-19 will likely require annual or even twice-per-year injections, for many years to come. We've all observed how poor the uptake of the annual flu shot is. I expect that the future uptake of COVID-19 vaccines is going to be worse than in 2021 and 2022.

As to colds and influenza, as well as a myriad of other serious (especially tropical) illnesses, I too have great hope for the promise of mRNA vaccines. The thing I love about vaccines is that, unlike medicines like antibiotics, we are still giving our immune systems a workout when we get vaccinated. It's a rare medical win-win.

But is it a good idea to eradicate all the milder disease through vaccination for all of them and leaving the immune system of future generations unprepared to infection in daily life?

c933103 wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Measles was worse. While one varriant, the vaccines work. We just need a high global vaccination rate.

Speaking of colds (and flus), when mRNA vaccines are available, I will sign up. We could reduce infections.

I expect employers to increase mandates.

Lightsaber

Measles is not a great comparison. For most people, two doses is enough to protect for a lifetime. Typically, the measles vaccinations are completed before 2 years of age. Only susceptible adults are given shots later in life.

COVID-19 will likely require annual or even twice-per-year injections, for many years to come. We've all observed how poor the uptake of the annual flu shot is. I expect that the future uptake of COVID-19 vaccines is going to be worse than in 2021 and 2022.

As to colds and influenza, as well as a myriad of other serious (especially tropical) illnesses, I too have great hope for the promise of mRNA vaccines. The thing I love about vaccines is that, unlike medicines like antibiotics, we are still giving our immune systems a workout when we get vaccinated. It's a rare medical win-win.

But is it a good idea to eradicate all the milder disease through vaccination for all of them and leaving the immune system of future generations unprepared to infection in daily life?

With colds and influenza (which I would classify as more than a mild disease), they would still find foothold in various parts of the world, so I don't think they could ever be eradicated. Plus, I consider it most likely that, even with mRNA vaccines, a yearly vaccine would still be needed. So, 1) colds and flus would continue to exist, and 2) getting a vaccine is as much as a workout for the immune system as getting the real disease. In fact, it can be argued that many vaccines give your system a better workout than the real disease, and that comes without all the nasty effects of actually getting sick. Thus, I don't think we'd be doing any harm to the immune capabilities of future generations, with mRNA vaccines against colds and flus.

c933103 wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Measles was worse. While one varriant, the vaccines work. We just need a high global vaccination rate.

Speaking of colds (and flus), when mRNA vaccines are available, I will sign up. We could reduce infections.

I expect employers to increase mandates.

Lightsaber

Measles is not a great comparison. For most people, two doses is enough to protect for a lifetime. Typically, the measles vaccinations are completed before 2 years of age. Only susceptible adults are given shots later in life.

COVID-19 will likely require annual or even twice-per-year injections, for many years to come. We've all observed how poor the uptake of the annual flu shot is. I expect that the future uptake of COVID-19 vaccines is going to be worse than in 2021 and 2022.

As to colds and influenza, as well as a myriad of other serious (especially tropical) illnesses, I too have great hope for the promise of mRNA vaccines. The thing I love about vaccines is that, unlike medicines like antibiotics, we are still giving our immune systems a workout when we get vaccinated. It's a rare medical win-win.

But is it a good idea to eradicate all the milder disease through vaccination for all of them and leaving the immune system of future generations unprepared to infection in daily life?

We cannot eliminate all colds. I'm ok with the anti-vax population retaining the privilege of incubating them and spending their money on NyQuil and other products.

Oh no, my relative's area had a surge in cases. Now a small area, but this might be enough to require another coronavirus ward.
Was, 44 hospitizations for coronavirus yesterday, today 49 (one more out of county resident hospitalized too). It is case by case, but this might be enough to force another ward which means curtailing some medical services to non-coronavirus.

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Oh no, my relative's area had a surge in cases. Now a small area, but this might be enough to require another coronavirus ward.
Was, 44 hospitizations for coronavirus yesterday, today 49 (one more out of county resident hospitalized too). It is case by case, but this might be enough to force another ward which means curtailing medical services to non-coronavirus.

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Lightsaber

Maybe it’s time for them to consider transferring patients to other jurisdictions. That was happening in Ontario for a little while during the last wave.

aerolimani wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Oh no, my relative's area had a surge in cases. Now a small area, but this might be enough to require another coronavirus ward.
Was, 44 hospitizations for coronavirus yesterday, today 49 (one more out of county resident hospitalized too). It is case by case, but this might be enough to force another ward which means curtailing medical services to non-coronavirus.

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Lightsaber

Maybe it’s time for them to consider transferring patients to other jurisdictions. That was happening in Ontario for a little while during the last wave.

They routinely transfer patients when appropriate. Right now they are intentionally taking all county patients so that other hospitals may operate normally and sending some non-urgent cases there.

At this time Denver and Salt Lake City partner hospitals have plenty of room, so a non-issue.

It is more that the Delta variant is growing (now 10%). If it wasn't so contagious .

More worrisome is June 24-26th a concert is planned outside the county, but this is the only trama center in helicopter range.

Lightsaber
Late Edit:
Forgot link on 10%
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/delta ... NewsSearch

aerolimani wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

If the delta variant really is that easily transmissible, we’re looking at many years of COVID-background. COVID-zero becomes absolutely impossible in even the medium term, and maybe ever. Just like “there’s no cure for the common cold.”

Measles was worse. While one varriant, the vaccines work. We just need a high global vaccination rate.

Speaking of colds (and flus), when mRNA vaccines are available, I will sign up. We could reduce infections.

I expect employers to increase mandates.

Lightsaber

Measles is not a great comparison. For most people, two doses is enough to protect for a lifetime. Typically, the measles vaccinations are completed before 2 years of age. Only susceptible adults are given shots later in life.

COVID-19 will likely require annual or even twice-per-year injections, for many years to come. We've all observed how poor the uptake of the annual flu shot is. I expect that the future uptake of COVID-19 vaccines is going to be worse than in 2021 and 2022.

As to colds and influenza, as well as a myriad of other serious (especially tropical) illnesses, I too have great hope for the promise of mRNA vaccines. The thing I love about vaccines is that, unlike medicines like antibiotics, we are still giving our immune systems a workout when we get vaccinated. It's a rare medical win-win.

There is no evidence to suggest that we will need 2 vaccines for Covid annually, we will need boosters in 2022 but I don't think there will be much past that. These vaccines are 90% + efficient, and even with one dose keeps nearly everyone out of the hospital who is exposed to the virus.

Mutations will continue to be monitored and so will outbreaks for several years but Coronaviruses aren't the same as flu viruses in terms of how they mutate and as people get exposed or vaccinated those replications that cause mutations will drop exponentially. Other endemic coronaviruses circulate as the common cold now and it is very likely one emerged in a similar manner as Covid19 in 1890. We have never had or needed vaccines for those.

Even in a good year when they get the flu strains right the flu vaccine has 40-60% efficacy.

As I've been saying, there's been too much emphasis placed on statistics, too much being blamed directly on the variants, with insufficient consideration of other factos. Of course, for governments, to admit such a thing would be to admit that they got it even more wrong, early in the pandemic. And yet, I remember January 2020 when China said person-to-person transmission wasn't a characteristic of COVID-19, and the WHO agreed!

Here's an outbreak of the alpha variant in an isolated, northern Canadian First Nations community. As a very highly vaccinated community, with a lot of multi-generational housing, they weren't taking any precautions. Now, they are seeing an explosion of cases primarily in their under-12 youth. This is alpha variant, which supposedly wasn't terrible for kids. And yet, here we are. In reality, I believe the ancestral strain was/is worse for kids than has been reported. We were just being much more cautious with our kids when the ancestral strain was the dominant one, so we didn't see big outbreaks amongst kids.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/202 ... ldren.html

And, here's a new BBC article describing reported symptoms of the delta variant. It mentions how scientists believe part of its high apparent transmission rate are because the symptoms appear less like alpha or original COVID-19, and more like a seasonal cold. Thus, believing it to be just a cold, people aren't getting tested or isolating. Especially, in the younger demographic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57467051

And here, a very scientific, and I believe more accurate, description of how coronaviruses, and variants, function. I highly recommend a read of this one.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... le/611239/

I am accepting that some variants are more of a concern than I was originally thinking. Still, I feel their danger is being exaggerated for the purposes of scaring people, permitting governmental overreach.

The most recent change in my thinking is that the difference between variants and the ancestral strain is still not so large, but it's not because the variants are waaaaay worse. I'm beginning to think it's because the ancestral strain has been grossly underestimated.

A little more from that article in The Atlantic:

To control the coronavirus, countries need to test widely, isolate infected people, trace their contacts, and use social-distancing measures when other options fail. “Identifying a mutation that does something different doesn’t really change our response,” Grubaugh says. “It just creates a diversion from what we need to be focusing on.”

From Nathan Grubaugh, PhD, an Assistant Professor of Epidemiology (Microbial Diseases) at Yale.

Last month, in an article about why the pandemic is so confusing, I wrote that “individual pieces of research are extremely unlikely to single-handedly upend what we know about COVID-19.” But between our insatiable need for information to assuage our anxiety and uncertainty, the media’s tendency to report uncritically on incremental studies, and social channels that amplify extreme voices over careful ones, it’s no wonder that confusion reigns.

The misconceptions about dangerous strains are also seductive in their own right. If we believe that the virus has changed into some especially challenging form, we can more easily explain why certain people and places have been hit worse than others—a mystery whose answer more likely (but less satisfyingly) lies in political inaction, existing inequalities, and chance. Powerful antagonists make for easy narratives. Ineptitude, bias, and randomness make for difficult ones.

From Ed Yong. Pullitzer Prize winning staff science journalist at The Atlantic. Not to mention, winner of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing's Victor Cohn Prize for Excellence in Medical Science Reporting, citing his reporting on the COVID-19 pandemic and his commitment to including marginalized and underrepresented voices in his writing.

It will take time to know whether different strains of the new coronavirus even exist, let alone whether any are more or less dangerous than the others. Any claims of that kind should be taken with a grain of salt for the next several months, if not longer. “In the short term, it’s highly unlikely that we’d be able to define new strains,” Wasik says.

From Brian R Wasik, Ph.D. (molecular biology). Received his degree from Yale. Curently, a professor at Cornell. Has spent much of his career studying RNA viruses, "blending molecular virology with experimental evolution to consider how virus populations evolve in response to complex environments." Quoted from his bio on the Parrish Lab (at Cornell) website.

Interesting article. And while it doesn't specifically say so, the ending is act on the science we know - get vaccinated, and be careful especially if you are around other people who are vulnerable. We don't know it all, but we know enough.

20% of asymptomatic are getting long haul symptoms.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... tions.html

Ok, I'm obsessed as since my ling haul symptom is the inability to taste fat after a trivial case of coronavirus, I'm not surprised asymptomatic have long haul symptoms.

StarAC17 wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Measles was worse. While one varriant, the vaccines work. We just need a high global vaccination rate.

Speaking of colds (and flus), when mRNA vaccines are available, I will sign up. We could reduce infections.

I expect employers to increase mandates.

Lightsaber

Measles is not a great comparison. For most people, two doses is enough to protect for a lifetime. Typically, the measles vaccinations are completed before 2 years of age. Only susceptible adults are given shots later in life.

COVID-19 will likely require annual or even twice-per-year injections, for many years to come. We've all observed how poor the uptake of the annual flu shot is. I expect that the future uptake of COVID-19 vaccines is going to be worse than in 2021 and 2022.

As to colds and influenza, as well as a myriad of other serious (especially tropical) illnesses, I too have great hope for the promise of mRNA vaccines. The thing I love about vaccines is that, unlike medicines like antibiotics, we are still giving our immune systems a workout when we get vaccinated. It's a rare medical win-win.

There is no evidence to suggest that we will need 2 vaccines for Covid annually, we will need boosters in 2022 but I don't think there will be much past that. These vaccines are 90% + efficient, and even with one dose keeps nearly everyone out of the hospital who is exposed to the virus.

Mutations will continue to be monitored and so will outbreaks for several years but Coronaviruses aren't the same as flu viruses in terms of how they mutate and as people get exposed or vaccinated those replications that cause mutations will drop exponentially. Other endemic coronaviruses circulate as the common cold now and it is very likely one emerged in a similar manner as Covid19 in 1890. We have never had or needed vaccines for those.

Even in a good year when they get the flu strains right the flu vaccine has 40-60% efficacy.

We don't need a booster in 2021, so high frequency boosters are unlikely. I agree that we will probably need one in 2022. I think this will become a once every few years booster.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

20% of asymptomatic are getting long haul symptoms.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... tions.html

Ok, I'm obsessed as since my ling haul symptom is the inability to taste fat after a trivial case of coronavirus, I'm not surprised asymptomatic have long haul symptoms.

StarAC17 wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

Measles is not a great comparison. For most people, two doses is enough to protect for a lifetime. Typically, the measles vaccinations are completed before 2 years of age. Only susceptible adults are given shots later in life.

COVID-19 will likely require annual or even twice-per-year injections, for many years to come. We've all observed how poor the uptake of the annual flu shot is. I expect that the future uptake of COVID-19 vaccines is going to be worse than in 2021 and 2022.

As to colds and influenza, as well as a myriad of other serious (especially tropical) illnesses, I too have great hope for the promise of mRNA vaccines. The thing I love about vaccines is that, unlike medicines like antibiotics, we are still giving our immune systems a workout when we get vaccinated. It's a rare medical win-win.

There is no evidence to suggest that we will need 2 vaccines for Covid annually, we will need boosters in 2022 but I don't think there will be much past that. These vaccines are 90% + efficient, and even with one dose keeps nearly everyone out of the hospital who is exposed to the virus.

Mutations will continue to be monitored and so will outbreaks for several years but Coronaviruses aren't the same as flu viruses in terms of how they mutate and as people get exposed or vaccinated those replications that cause mutations will drop exponentially. Other endemic coronaviruses circulate as the common cold now and it is very likely one emerged in a similar manner as Covid19 in 1890. We have never had or needed vaccines for those.

Even in a good year when they get the flu strains right the flu vaccine has 40-60% efficacy.

We don't need a booster in 2021, so high frequency boosters are unlikely. I agree that we will probably need one in 2022. I think this will become a once every few years booster.

Lightsaber

It all depends who you listen to. The vaccine CEO’s are saying 6 months, and the governments are saying after 1-2 years. The scientists are, as expected, waiting for the evidence before making a statement.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Interesting article. And while it doesn't specifically say so, the ending is act on the science we know - get vaccinated, and be careful especially if you are around other people who are vulnerable. We don't know it all, but we know enough.

And, that lines up with me. The only difference is that I am not a scientist, so I permit myself to make some guesses. After all, I don’t have an academic career to worry about.

I only wish that the media, politicians, and public health officers would stop hyping up the variants. It’s counterproductive to the communication effort. It’s moving goalposts, and that puts a lot of people off.

aerolimani wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Interesting article. And while it doesn't specifically say so, the ending is act on the science we know - get vaccinated, and be careful especially if you are around other people who are vulnerable. We don't know it all, but we know enough.

And, that lines up with me. The only difference is that I am not a scientist, so I permit myself to make some guesses. After all, I don’t have an academic career to worry about.

I only wish that the media, politicians, and public health officers would stop hyping up the variants. It’s counterproductive to the communication effort. It’s moving goalposts, and that puts a lot of people off.

I have a relative going through hell in Mesa county Colorado due to the Delta variant.
https://www.cpr.org/2021/06/16/mesa-cou ... -stagnate/
Mesa County started to experience a dramatic rise in COVID-19 cases — and now has some of the highest infection rates in the state. Hospitals are near or at capacity nearly every day.

“The admissions that I’ve seen in the last six weeks or so have all been unvaccinated people,” Tobin said.

Two days ago hospitizations were at 44. Yesterday 49. I expect a much worse day as my relative was supposed to be doing pre and post operation consultations for stuff like colonoscopies. I contacted and got a really busy, working (coronavirus) admissions and there is a couple here I have to take care of...
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

So I am curious what the numbers shift to for yesterday.

Its ok, the hot zone of Delta is just hosting "Country Jam" with free shuttles to 28 hotels! Open restaurants and bars and i can attest, little mask wearing:
https://www.visitgrandjunction.com/even ... y-jam-2021

The doctors and nurses postponed vacations last year to deal with the surge. Since this surge is a choice, all the staff who worked coronavirus last year are taking extra vacation. In general, from what anecdotal I've seen, the staff that didn't work coronavirus just doesn't want to work with coronavirus patients but will have to this year.

My relative tells me they stood up a pediatric coronavirus ward. They never did that before.
Talking to my medical friends, I personally know of 6 vaccine break throughs (they are all working Covid19).
3 cancer patients (half of cancer patients will suffer breakthroughs, unfortunately)
1 unhealthy middle aged man who will be fine, just a few days in hospital to contemplate the human body's need for excercise to move around immune system titers.
2 very elderly with conditions that caused a high likelihood of Vaccine breakthrough.

They weren't seeing all this with Alpha.

Perhaps we should talk variants? The virus has moved the goalposts. I think pandemic fatigue has put people off.

If all children could be vaccinated, a different discussion.

Lightsaber

Ps (late edit): It looks like the USA is emulating the UK with a one month time lag. But we will not lock down as well...
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~GBR

lightsaber wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Interesting article. And while it doesn't specifically say so, the ending is act on the science we know - get vaccinated, and be careful especially if you are around other people who are vulnerable. We don't know it all, but we know enough.

And, that lines up with me. The only difference is that I am not a scientist, so I permit myself to make some guesses. After all, I don’t have an academic career to worry about.

I only wish that the media, politicians, and public health officers would stop hyping up the variants. It’s counterproductive to the communication effort. It’s moving goalposts, and that puts a lot of people off.

I have a relative going through hell in Mesa county Colorado due to the Delta variant.
https://www.cpr.org/2021/06/16/mesa-cou ... -stagnate/
Mesa County started to experience a dramatic rise in COVID-19 cases — and now has some of the highest infection rates in the state. Hospitals are near or at capacity nearly every day.

“The admissions that I’ve seen in the last six weeks or so have all been unvaccinated people,” Tobin said.

Two days ago hospitizations were at 44. Yesterday 49. I expect a much worse day as my relative was supposed to be doing pre and post operation consultations for stuff like colonoscopies. I contacted and got a really busy, working (coronavirus) admissions and there is a couple here I have to take care of...
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

So I am curious what the numbers shift to for yesterday.

Its ok, the hot zone of Delta is just hosting "Country Jam" with free shuttles to 28 hotels! Open restaurants and bars and i can attest, little mask wearing:
https://www.visitgrandjunction.com/even ... y-jam-2021

The doctors and nurses postponed vacations last year to deal with the surge. Since this surge is a choice, all the staff who worked coronavirus last year are taking extra vacation. In general, from what anecdotal I've seen, the staff that didn't work coronavirus just doesn't want to work with coronavirus patients but will have to this year.

My relative tells me they stood up a pediatric coronavirus ward. They never did that before.
Talking to my medical friends, I personally know of 6 vaccine break throughs (they are all working Covid19).
3 cancer patients (half of cancer patients will suffer breakthroughs, unfortunately)
1 unhealthy middle aged man who will be fine, just a few days in hospital to contemplate the human body's need for excercise to move around immune system titers.
2 very elderly with conditions that caused a high likelihood of Vaccine breakthrough.

They weren't seeing all this with Alpha.

Perhaps we should talk variants? The virus has moved the goalposts. I think pandemic fatigue has put people off.

If all children could be vaccinated, a different discussion.

Lightsaber

Ps (late edit): It looks like the USA is emulating the UK with a one month time lag. But we will not lock down as well...
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~GBR

I get that you are convinced about variants being dramatically worse. I’m not going to try to convince you anymore. My problem is that I believe scaring people about variants does more to help the anti-vaccine crowd than it does to encourage vaccinations. I think it would be far more productive to hear that phrases like “COVID-19 cases are surging in Mesa County” versus “the delta variant is surging in Mesa County.” The first phrase is more scientifically accurate, and better, IMHO, in terms of communication.

aerolimani wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

And, that lines up with me. The only difference is that I am not a scientist, so I permit myself to make some guesses. After all, I don’t have an academic career to worry about.

I only wish that the media, politicians, and public health officers would stop hyping up the variants. It’s counterproductive to the communication effort. It’s moving goalposts, and that puts a lot of people off.

I have a relative going through hell in Mesa county Colorado due to the Delta variant.
https://www.cpr.org/2021/06/16/mesa-cou ... -stagnate/
Mesa County started to experience a dramatic rise in COVID-19 cases — and now has some of the highest infection rates in the state. Hospitals are near or at capacity nearly every day.

“The admissions that I’ve seen in the last six weeks or so have all been unvaccinated people,” Tobin said.

Two days ago hospitizations were at 44. Yesterday 49. I expect a much worse day as my relative was supposed to be doing pre and post operation consultations for stuff like colonoscopies. I contacted and got a really busy, working (coronavirus) admissions and there is a couple here I have to take care of...
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

So I am curious what the numbers shift to for yesterday.

Its ok, the hot zone of Delta is just hosting "Country Jam" with free shuttles to 28 hotels! Open restaurants and bars and i can attest, little mask wearing:
https://www.visitgrandjunction.com/even ... y-jam-2021

The doctors and nurses postponed vacations last year to deal with the surge. Since this surge is a choice, all the staff who worked coronavirus last year are taking extra vacation. In general, from what anecdotal I've seen, the staff that didn't work coronavirus just doesn't want to work with coronavirus patients but will have to this year.

My relative tells me they stood up a pediatric coronavirus ward. They never did that before.
Talking to my medical friends, I personally know of 6 vaccine break throughs (they are all working Covid19).
3 cancer patients (half of cancer patients will suffer breakthroughs, unfortunately)
1 unhealthy middle aged man who will be fine, just a few days in hospital to contemplate the human body's need for excercise to move around immune system titers.
2 very elderly with conditions that caused a high likelihood of Vaccine breakthrough.

They weren't seeing all this with Alpha.

Perhaps we should talk variants? The virus has moved the goalposts. I think pandemic fatigue has put people off.

If all children could be vaccinated, a different discussion.

Lightsaber

Ps (late edit): It looks like the USA is emulating the UK with a one month time lag. But we will not lock down as well...
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~GBR

I get that you are convinced about variants being dramatically worse. I’m not going to try to convince you anymore. My problem is that I believe scaring people about variants does more to help the anti-vaccine crowd than it does to encourage vaccinations. I think it would be far more productive to hear that phrases like “COVID-19 cases are surging in Mesa County” versus “the delta variant is surging in Mesa County.” The first phrase is more scientifically accurate, and better, IMHO, in terms of communication.

The issue is that the variants are worse.

Look at the week over week for the UK. +38% cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ekly_table

Remember the UK is at 45% of all adults vaccinated fully.
The US is at 44%.

Covid is spreading in the UK is on it's way to the US, and Delta is now spreading faster than other variants.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/16/health/u ... index.html

"The second reason it's concerning is that there is some data to indicate that it may in fact also be more dangerous, may cause more severe illness. That still needs to be understood more clearly, but these are two important concerns and they explain in part ... why this is become the dominant variant in the UK, where over 90% of cases are the Delta variant," Murthy said.
The good news is that vaccines appear to be effective against the Delta variant.
A new study by Public Health England found that two doses of a coronavirus vaccine is "highly effective against hospitalization" caused by the variant. The study found the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalization after two doses.

The unvaccinated are putting us all at risk for this next variant.

For my relatives, finally talking medical staff fatigue:
https://www.cpr.org/2021/06/16/mesa-cou ... -stagnate/

In Mesa County, health care workers are exhausted. And the COVID-19 cases keep coming.
...
While nearly half of all Coloradans are fully vaccinated, that simple number doesn’t give the full picture. Large swaths of the state either outpace that average or fall far behind it. In Summit County, for example, nearly three out of four eligible residents are fully vaccinated. In Moffat, however, it’s less than one in three.


In my opinion, it doesn't matter if by state or county, "birds of a feather flock together" so outbreaks might be as little as a workplace, a social club, an anti-vax neighborhood...

The hot zone invites you to come for a concert!
https://www.visitgrandjunction.com/even ... y-jam-2021

Ok, outdoors is pretty safe, it will be the bars, restaurants, hotels that share the love. The disconnect between in the hospitals and outside is... two different worlds.

Lightsaber

Late edit: They are using one of the hotels to rapid discharge minor cases where they unlikely to contaminate anyone else, have a nurse walk the halls twice a day (make sure they do not need to go back to the hospital, a common event with coronavirus, even a week later, and free up staff for serious cases), ensure any new medicine, and a comfort factor (it is unsettling getting hospitalized for coronavirus).

Huh, Hospital filled up a bunch, but only 3 more coronavirus patients. I cannot explain why and I'll let those I know there... rest.
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

lightsaber wrote:

Late edit: They are using one of the hotels to rapid discharge minor cases where they unlikely to contaminate anyone else, have a nurse walk the halls twice a day (make sure they do not need to go back to the hospital, a common event with coronavirus, even a week later, and free up staff for serious cases), ensure any new medicine, and a comfort factor (it is unsettling getting hospitalized for coronavirus).

I recall a number of countries doing this to mild or asymptomatic patients but then condition of virus infected patients could deteriorate rapidly and thus would result in death in those hotel

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Late edit: They are using one of the hotels to rapid discharge minor cases where they unlikely to contaminate anyone else, have a nurse walk the halls twice a day (make sure they do not need to go back to the hospital, a common event with coronavirus, even a week later, and free up staff for serious cases), ensure any new medicine, and a comfort factor (it is unsettling getting hospitalized for coronavirus).

I recall a number of countries doing this to mild or asymptomatic patients but then condition of virus infected patients could deteriorate rapidly and thus would result in death in those hotel

These patients first spent at least two days in the hospital receiving high flow oxygen to boost their condition. It is different than just isolating cases. They also are monitored and a whole bunch of thresholds to return them to the hospital.

The patients actually do better as a nice large hotel room is much more relaxing than a hospital. In my opion there is a time for the hospital sterile environment and time to relax in a nice hotel room.

They haven't had anyone die (I asked), but they do have 5% to 10% (varies by age of patient and virus variant) return to the hospital. If in doubt, they are taken the two blocks to the hospital and put back in a coronavirus ward. But for 90% to 95% of the patients they just have someone making sure they are taking their medicine, have their (limited, portable) oxygen, measure vitals (which includes blood oxygen now), and ask a few questions.

This frees up hospital staff for patients that really need their attention.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Late edit: They are using one of the hotels to rapid discharge minor cases where they unlikely to contaminate anyone else, have a nurse walk the halls twice a day (make sure they do not need to go back to the hospital, a common event with coronavirus, even a week later, and free up staff for serious cases), ensure any new medicine, and a comfort factor (it is unsettling getting hospitalized for coronavirus).

I recall a number of countries doing this to mild or asymptomatic patients but then condition of virus infected patients could deteriorate rapidly and thus would result in death in those hotel

These patients first spent at least two days in the hospital receiving high flow oxygen to boost their condition. It is different than just isolating cases. They also are monitored and a whole bunch of thresholds to return them to the hospital.

The patients actually do better as a nice large hotel room is much more relaxing than a hospital. In my opion there is a time for the hospital sterile environment and time to relax in a nice hotel room.

They haven't had anyone die (I asked), but they do have 5% to 10% (varies by age of patient and virus variant) return to the hospital. If in doubt, they are taken the two blocks to the hospital and put back in a coronavirus ward. But for 90% to 95% of the patients they just have someone making sure they are taking their medicine, have their (limited, portable) oxygen, measure vitals (which includes blood oxygen now), and ask a few questions.

This frees up hospital staff for patients that really need their attention.

Lightsaber

Thing is that, in many cases the patients at hotel were still well on all metrics on the previous night, but nect morning the patient is already dead due to rapid deterioration of condition
And is there really much use with preemptively giving oxygen when one's condition isn't that bad?

A really well written article on coronavirus/vacinations, safety indoors at restaurants, but what struck me is the first estimate of Ro for Delta: 5 to 6


https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... 253231.php


I'm going from memory
Original: Ro=3
Alpha, 3.7
Delta 5 to 6.

Oh boy... In a less than 50% vaccinated population, that basically means unfettered spread. Rhoo Rhoo.

Oh, also notes 29% of kids get long haul symptoms.

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

I recall a number of countries doing this to mild or asymptomatic patients but then condition of virus infected patients could deteriorate rapidly and thus would result in death in those hotel

These patients first spent at least two days in the hospital receiving high flow oxygen to boost their condition. It is different than just isolating cases. They also are monitored and a whole bunch of thresholds to return them to the hospital.

The patients actually do better as a nice large hotel room is much more relaxing than a hospital. In my opion there is a time for the hospital sterile environment and time to relax in a nice hotel room.

They haven't had anyone die (I asked), but they do have 5% to 10% (varies by age of patient and virus variant) return to the hospital. If in doubt, they are taken the two blocks to the hospital and put back in a coronavirus ward. But for 90% to 95% of the patients they just have someone making sure they are taking their medicine, have their (limited, portable) oxygen, measure vitals (which includes blood oxygen now), and ask a few questions.

This frees up hospital staff for patients that really need their attention.

Lightsaber

Thing is that, in many cases the patients at hotel were still well on all metrics on the previous night, but nect morning the patient is already dead due to rapid deterioration of condition
And is there really much use with preemptively giving oxygen when one's condition isn't that bad?

You are describing where the patient started in the hotel. I'm talking about patients that are to be discharged, but in an abundance of caution, they stay in a monitored hotel for 5 to 14 days. Why? 5% to 10% need to be readmitted and this has them at one place monitored. Everyone was in the hospital 2+ days to ensure a safe transition and no discharge if in doubt. These patients can go home anytime they want.

Lightsaber

Nearly all new coronavirus cases in the United Kingdom are the Delta variant of the virus, a strain first identified in India and one worrying health officials in the United States, where it has been named a "variant of concern."

Public Health England data shows that the Delta variant accounts for 99% of sequenced COVID-19 tests in the U.K. At least 33,630 cases of the variant were identified last week, bringing the U.K.'s total to at least 75,953 cases of the Delta strain.

Data also shows that there is an increased risk of hospitalization with the Delta variant.

As of June 14, PHE reports a total of 806 people in the hospital with the variant, an increase of 423 since last week.

By my estimate, Delta was starting in the UK 7 weeks ago. Considering how the UK is fractionally better vaccinated than the USA today and in my opinion doing more social distancing, I'd bet the USA will beat that timeline.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Lightsaber
PS, late edit
my relative's hospital is seeing more deaths with Delta. But this is more vs. a few months ago, not this history of Covid19 (early on death was far more common). Only one pediatric death, but if I heard right 8 under age 35s in danger (it takes 7+ weeks now to die of Covid19, is it any wonder the amount of fentanyl and even heroin I hear the doctors talk about prescribing?, no link, just word of mouth because prescribing heroin was so rare pre-Covid19, the doctors still talk a bunch when it is needed).

Problems arising with different vaccines approved in different countries, travel restrictions, and more.

Vaccine rule for Springsteen Broadway show adds travel uncertainty for AstraZeneca recipients
Theatres and TV production studios in New York are not accepting people fully vaccinated with AstraZeneca. And yet, hockey games there have sections for fully non-vaccinated folks!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/c ... -1.6070807

Trudeau says AstraZeneca recipients will 'not be disadvantaged' when they travel
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said today his government is working with the U.S. and other international partners to ensure that AstraZeneca vaccine recipients face few barriers when they travel abroad.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudea ... -1.6071320

Similarly, there are many citizens, of many countries, who have been working abroad, and received vaccines not approved in their own countries. Now, when they want to return home, their countries don't accept their status as vaccinated. So then, what are their options? Remain classified as unvaccinated for some period of time? Or, risk their health by getting vaccinated again with an approved type, just to achieve official vaccinated status?

I feel bad for people who followed the advice of "the best vaccine for you is the first one you are offered," and received something other than Moderna or Pfizer.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21257321v1
There is a computer simulation in Japan showing that if restaurants installed too much plastic boards t separate the customers, it might worsen the air flow and causing people to be infected

aerolimani wrote:

Similarly, there are many citizens, of many countries, who have been working abroad, and received vaccines not approved in their own countries. Now, when they want to return home, their countries don't accept their status as vaccinated. So then, what are their options? Remain classified as unvaccinated for some period of time? Or, risk their health by getting vaccinated again with an approved type, just to achieve official vaccinated status?

I feel bad for people who followed the advice of "the best vaccine for you is the first one you are offered," and received something other than Moderna or Pfizer.

If the vaccines are deemed safe how would it be a health concern to receive a third and/or fourth shot? :I

fallap wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

Similarly, there are many citizens, of many countries, who have been working abroad, and received vaccines not approved in their own countries. Now, when they want to return home, their countries don't accept their status as vaccinated. So then, what are their options? Remain classified as unvaccinated for some period of time? Or, risk their health by getting vaccinated again with an approved type, just to achieve official vaccinated status?

I feel bad for people who followed the advice of "the best vaccine for you is the first one you are offered," and received something other than Moderna or Pfizer.

If the vaccines are deemed safe how would it be a health concern to receive a third and/or fourth shot? :I

The immune system is difficult to predict. Without proper testing, vaccine mixing should not be recommended too close together. For example, the UK studies demonstrated that, while still safe, following up an AZ first dose with an mRNA second dose led to an increased incidence of adverse reactions. So, their recommendation was to not give an entire workforce their second dose all at once, if they were doing the AZ-mRNA combo, or you could risk a lot of people taking sick days all at once. Imagine if that happened with the medical staff of any one department in a hospital.

fallap wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

Similarly, there are many citizens, of many countries, who have been working abroad, and received vaccines not approved in their own countries. Now, when they want to return home, their countries don't accept their status as vaccinated. So then, what are their options? Remain classified as unvaccinated for some period of time? Or, risk their health by getting vaccinated again with an approved type, just to achieve official vaccinated status?

I feel bad for people who followed the advice of "the best vaccine for you is the first one you are offered," and received something other than Moderna or Pfizer.

If the vaccines are deemed safe how would it be a health concern to receive a third and/or fourth shot? :I

The UK has a plan for boosters with another type, once enough jabs are available:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... NewsSearch


So people will receive third shots, but first everyone else willing within a health authority.

Unfortunately we have so much anti-vax that most countries (not the UK) will have ghettos of new variants plowing through for years

In my opinion it is the quantity of contacts of potential carriers, not fraction Unvaccinated that present the risk. e.g., a rancher with 20 contacts per month is at far less risk than a bartender with thousands of contacts each month.

In the Autumn many will get that 3rd jab.

Lightsaber

aerolimani wrote:

Problems arising with different vaccines approved in different countries, travel restrictions, and more.

Vaccine rule for Springsteen Broadway show adds travel uncertainty for AstraZeneca recipients
Theatres and TV production studios in New York are not accepting people fully vaccinated with AstraZeneca. And yet, hockey games there have sections for fully non-vaccinated folks!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/c ... -1.6070807

Trudeau says AstraZeneca recipients will 'not be disadvantaged' when they travel
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said today his government is working with the U.S. and other international partners to ensure that AstraZeneca vaccine recipients face few barriers when they travel abroad.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudea ... -1.6071320

Similarly, there are many citizens, of many countries, who have been working abroad, and received vaccines not approved in their own countries. Now, when they want to return home, their countries don't accept their status as vaccinated. So then, what are their options? Remain classified as unvaccinated for some period of time? Or, risk their health by getting vaccinated again with an approved type, just to achieve official vaccinated status?

I feel bad for people who followed the advice of "the best vaccine for you is the first one you are offered," and received something other than Moderna or Pfizer.

And, per this new article, the theatre presenting the Springsteen on Broadway show has backtracked on their vaccine policy. They will now consider any WHO-approved vaccine to be valid for vaccinated status. This is a good move, IMHO.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/s ... -1.6072682

Fascinating new graph on worldometers shows

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... RL~CAN~GBR

(Image will not allow a hot link). Because of the high Ro of Delta, I think we need a new benchmark on testing versus cases. I am quite certain a positivity rate of < 1% is a nation/region controlling the virus. The old benchmark was a less than 5% positivity rate. I think Delta changes that to 2% being the new dividing line between knowing where the virus is and controlling it and letting it run away. Partially this quantity is because I believe my USA is letting the virus run away and it is finding all the low vaccinated pockets for a merry time.

Delta changed the benchmark to fraction of the population fully vaccinated.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+dose%29

Considering the UK at 46% fully vaccinated has a problem, that shows that level of vaccination isn't good enough. We really need 80%+ which can only be done with younger children getting vaccinated.

aerolimani wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

Problems arising with different vaccines approved in different countries, travel restrictions, and more.

Vaccine rule for Springsteen Broadway show adds travel uncertainty for AstraZeneca recipients
Theatres and TV production studios in New York are not accepting people fully vaccinated with AstraZeneca. And yet, hockey games there have sections for fully non-vaccinated folks!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/c ... -1.6070807

Trudeau says AstraZeneca recipients will 'not be disadvantaged' when they travel
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said today his government is working with the U.S. and other international partners to ensure that AstraZeneca vaccine recipients face few barriers when they travel abroad.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudea ... -1.6071320

Similarly, there are many citizens, of many countries, who have been working abroad, and received vaccines not approved in their own countries. Now, when they want to return home, their countries don't accept their status as vaccinated. So then, what are their options? Remain classified as unvaccinated for some period of time? Or, risk their health by getting vaccinated again with an approved type, just to achieve official vaccinated status?

I feel bad for people who followed the advice of "the best vaccine for you is the first one you are offered," and received something other than Moderna or Pfizer.

And, per this new article, the theatre presenting the Springsteen on Broadway show has backtracked on their vaccine policy. They will now consider any WHO-approved vaccine to be valid for vaccinated status. This is a good move, IMHO.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/s ... -1.6072682

We need to accept AZ. I posted numerous times in the vaccine thread how it is outstanding at preventing transmission. If a person gets sick, that is bad, if they transmit, really bad.
AZ, J&J, Pfizer, Moderna, and it looks like NovaVax should all be treated as vaccinated.

The issue is the attenuated virus vaccines do not do enough. What we should do is vaccine tourism. Offer a jab of Pfizer to bring them up to snuff.

Taking the first one offered helped many a country bring this under control. What we need to do now is get out enough vaccine to allow normal life again (which truly doesn't happen until child's vaccine down to age 3 for the pre-schools).

Come Autumn there will be boosters. I cannot get excited about a small variation in restrictions at this time when so many need any vaccine for their health.

Lightsaber

I very much am watching the small changes in restrictions. I need reopening. My career depends on it. I haven’t had meaningful work in 15 months. I’ve already lost too much, and I’m not prepared to give up 16 years of education to find a new career. I need reopening.

A curious observation from the ongoing ZOE study in the UK. It has been noted that amongst vaccinated people who test positive for COVID-19, breakthrough cases, their most common symptom was sneezing.

So now, you have people who, feeling confident with a vaccine in their bodies, are probably more lax with their masking, taking their kids to the park to play with all the other kids, and probably visiting people and going out more. They’re getting infected, but because they’re vaccinated, and the symptoms aren’t COVID-19 typical, they’re probably assuming it’s a normal cold or allergies, and they are doing what projects more aerosols and droplets than anything else, they’re sneezing. Might have something to do with the spread we’re currently seeing in the UK, no?

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

aerolimani wrote:

A curious observation from the ongoing ZOE study in the UK. It has been noted that amongst vaccinated people who test positive for COVID-19, breakthrough cases, their most common symptom was sneezing.

So now, you have people who, feeling confident with a vaccine in their bodies, are probably more lax with their masking, taking their kids to the park to play with all the other kids, and probably visiting people and going out more. They’re getting infected, but because they’re vaccinated, and the symptoms aren’t COVID-19 typical, they’re probably assuming it’s a normal cold or allergies, and they are doing what projects more aerosols and droplets than anything else, they’re sneezing. Might have something to do with the spread we’re currently seeing in the UK, no?

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

I thought that much of the UK spread was in non vaccinated communities where there are vaccine hesitant people or they haven't yet got it.

Regarding the cold like symptoms this is what was predicted and is similar to the endemic coronaviruses which is what Covid19 is going to be. At the end of the day I like what Andrew Cuomo said. If your vaccinated, don't worry about it you are good.

Eventually we have to get to the point that if you are vaccine hesitant then its your risk. The fortunate thing is most of the vaccines hesitant are also anti lockdown. From my observation in Canada the ones who want the restrictions to remain are comfortable baby boomers in their late 50's and 60's. Anyone under 45 is done with the restrictions.

StarAC17 wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

A curious observation from the ongoing ZOE study in the UK. It has been noted that amongst vaccinated people who test positive for COVID-19, breakthrough cases, their most common symptom was sneezing.

So now, you have people who, feeling confident with a vaccine in their bodies, are probably more lax with their masking, taking their kids to the park to play with all the other kids, and probably visiting people and going out more. They’re getting infected, but because they’re vaccinated, and the symptoms aren’t COVID-19 typical, they’re probably assuming it’s a normal cold or allergies, and they are doing what projects more aerosols and droplets than anything else, they’re sneezing. Might have something to do with the spread we’re currently seeing in the UK, no?

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

I thought that much of the UK spread was in non vaccinated communities where there are vaccine hesitant people or they haven't yet got it.

Regarding the cold like symptoms this is what was predicted and is similar to the endemic coronaviruses which is what Covid19 is going to be. At the end of the day I like what Andrew Cuomo said. If your vaccinated, don't worry about it you are good.

Eventually we have to get to the point that if you are vaccine hesitant then its your risk. The fortunate thing is most of the vaccines hesitant are also anti lockdown. From my observation in Canada the ones who want the restrictions to remain are comfortable baby boomers in their late 50's and 60's. Anyone under 45 is done with the restrictions.

Well, yes, the principal spread is among non-vaccinated, and their symptoms will be more severe, and more typical. However, I am sure there are vaccinated, sneezing people hanging out around non-vaccinated people. By the sounds of it, a vaccinated, infected person has a greater potential to be a superspreader individual.

And yes, we will get to a point where the unvaccinated must take their risks, and the rest of us can be 100% free to get on with our lives. Of course, for that to be 100% fair, we have to be able to offer vaccines to everyone, including under 12's. We're not there yet, so I accept that some restrictions should remain in place for a while yet.

And also yes, those people who have lives which can fairly comfortably accommodate restrictions are, of course, more liable to be fine with harsher restrictions continuing… such as the never-ending US/Canada border closure, and the hotel quarantine. Definitely, the younger age groups are getting extremely restless. It's the sense that "we've done our part, so can we get on with this?"

As to Canada, I'm not sure that Alberta is following the right path. I think they looked at the Stampede dates, and then set reopening goalposts which were achievable in time to have Stampede. That, as opposed to actually following good science, even if it put Stampede at risk. But, I guess we shall see whether the grand Alberta experiment goes okay, or not. We'll know by August.

That said, I'm impressed that Alberta reduced the interval between vaccines to 4 weeks. Most of the rest of the country is still stuck at an 8-week wait. Hopefully, the other provinces will soon figure out what they need to do to reduce the interval also.

I think everyone wants to get back to their normal jobs. Unfortunately, that takes:
1. More vaccine uptake which also requires
2. More vaccine production
3. Vaccination of the children (in work)

I refuse to do certain activities due to the risk to my not yet eligible for vaccination child; since I am not unique, I know it is decimating many small business owners that have a business catering to the children.

I have no doubt 3rd doses will be offered as a booster. It is a question of when.

aerolimani wrote:

StarAC17 wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

A curious observation from the ongoing ZOE study in the UK. It has been noted that amongst vaccinated people who test positive for COVID-19, breakthrough cases, their most common symptom was sneezing.

So now, you have people who, feeling confident with a vaccine in their bodies, are probably more lax with their masking, taking their kids to the park to play with all the other kids, and probably visiting people and going out more. They’re getting infected, but because they’re vaccinated, and the symptoms aren’t COVID-19 typical, they’re probably assuming it’s a normal cold or allergies, and they are doing what projects more aerosols and droplets than anything else, they’re sneezing. Might have something to do with the spread we’re currently seeing in the UK, no?

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

I thought that much of the UK spread was in non vaccinated communities where there are vaccine hesitant people or they haven't yet got it.

Regarding the cold like symptoms this is what was predicted and is similar to the endemic coronaviruses which is what Covid19 is going to be. At the end of the day I like what Andrew Cuomo said. If your vaccinated, don't worry about it you are good.

Eventually we have to get to the point that if you are vaccine hesitant then its your risk. The fortunate thing is most of the vaccines hesitant are also anti lockdown. From my observation in Canada the ones who want the restrictions to remain are comfortable baby boomers in their late 50's and 60's. Anyone under 45 is done with the restrictions.

Well, yes, the principal spread is among non-vaccinated, and their symptoms will be more severe, and more typical. However, I am sure there are vaccinated, sneezing people hanging out around non-vaccinated people. By the sounds of it, a vaccinated, infected person has a greater potential to be a superspreader individual.

And yes, we will get to a point where the unvaccinated must take their risks, and the rest of us can be 100% free to get on with our lives. Of course, for that to be 100% fair, we have to be able to offer vaccines to everyone, including under 12's. We're not there yet, so I accept that some restrictions should remain in place for a while yet.

And also yes, those people who have lives which can fairly comfortably accommodate restrictions are, of course, more liable to be fine with harsher restrictions continuing… such as the never-ending US/Canada border closure, and the hotel quarantine. Definitely, the younger age groups are getting extremely restless. It's the sense that "we've done our part, so can we get on with this?"

As to Canada, I'm not sure that Alberta is following the right path. I think they looked at the Stampede dates, and then set reopening goalposts which were achievable in time to have Stampede. That, as opposed to actually following good science, even if it put Stampede at risk. But, I guess we shall see whether the grand Alberta experiment goes okay, or not. We'll know by August.

That said, I'm impressed that Alberta reduced the interval between vaccines to 4 weeks. Most of the rest of the country is still stuck at an 8-week wait. Hopefully, the other provinces will soon figure out what they need to do to reduce the interval also.

A vaccinated person is far less likely to be a super spreader is the vaccine helps suppress the viral load. My anecdotal observation is the "I don't give a damn" people are unvaccinated. They are the ones I have to send home from work, while the vaccinated tend to be aware.


Why do the vaccines, in particular AZ and mRNA help so much:
The researchers also found that only a small number—10.7%—of infections in the study were asymptomatic, demonstrating, according to the CDC, that "these two mRNA vaccines can reduce the risk of all SARS-CoV-2 infections, not just symptomatic infections."

https://www.verywellhealth.com/cdc-stud ... es-5121080

The mRNA, AZ, and J&J vaccines has proven really good at reducing transmission.

The continued risk is the unvaccinated. In the simplest terms, if you cannot get the disease, you will not spread it.

To the anti-Vax (in the USA, in my opinion if you are unvaccinated, you are no longer hesitant):
My relative is in Mesa County Colorado has been going through hell because so many unvaccinated are getting severely ill. From that anecdotal, you might even call it myopic, I agree "described the Delta variant as “coronavirus on steroids”"
https://news.yahoo.com/delta-variant-co ... 47750.html

They have had 9 "breakthrough" deaths, but all have been explainable (age, cancer, something that doomed the person that was depending on others to slow the spread):
https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/western ... 3507a.html

That is 9 out of 242 deaths.
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

My relative had to be the one to declare that the ambulances were to be turned away and to drive to Denver. Huh... They were able to clear out *many* patients after that (airlift), amazing what "no more" does to get resources.

In my opinion, the USA entered the quiet time on June 2nd that the UK entered on April 10th. The UK is better vaccinated and is, unfortunately, out of the "quiet time." We're trailing.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~GBR

The interval between doses is entirely based upon vaccine availability. Do you go for maximum 1 dose, which seems to really reduce transmission. Or do you go for protection against Delta (which seems to need a 2-3 week period after the 2nd dose to have protection)? It takes vaccine quantity to short circuit that decision. Before the Stampede (which I have fond memories of attending), I would prioritize the Olympics.

The winners are the highly vaccinated countries with good vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, AZ, and I hope Novavax.
UK has quite the spread in their unvaccinated population.
Cases are rising rapidly across the country and the Delta variant is now dominant. The increase is primarily in younger age groups, a large proportion of which were unvaccinated but are now being invited to receive the vaccine.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... itics-live

I noted the UK peaked at #5 on this list (higher is worse) and is now at #7, Israel was at #25, now at #32 and is dropping (higher fraction vaccinated, good testing in UK and Israel).
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~GBR

Link showing testing. North America testing is... ok, but just that ok.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... BR~ISR~CAN

We get out of this when more vaccinate. I am of the opinion, quite certain actually, that we will see bad Delta variant outbreaks in the unvaccinated pockets. I'm not so happy the bars, concerts, and other events those who won't vaccinate will congregate at. I want an open economy, the way to do that is not be scared of a needle.

Lightsaber

I understand that fully vaccinated people, with at least 3 weeks after their second injection, are not big spreaders. But, how about one dose people? The percentage of two dose people is climbing in the UK, but it’s not all that far along.

StarAC17 wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

A curious observation from the ongoing ZOE study in the UK. It has been noted that amongst vaccinated people who test positive for COVID-19, breakthrough cases, their most common symptom was sneezing.

So now, you have people who, feeling confident with a vaccine in their bodies, are probably more lax with their masking, taking their kids to the park to play with all the other kids, and probably visiting people and going out more. They’re getting infected, but because they’re vaccinated, and the symptoms aren’t COVID-19 typical, they’re probably assuming it’s a normal cold or allergies, and they are doing what projects more aerosols and droplets than anything else, they’re sneezing. Might have something to do with the spread we’re currently seeing in the UK, no?

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

I thought that much of the UK spread was in non vaccinated communities where there are vaccine hesitant people or they haven't yet got it.

Regarding the cold like symptoms this is what was predicted and is similar to the endemic coronaviruses which is what Covid19 is going to be. At the end of the day I like what Andrew Cuomo said. If your vaccinated, don't worry about it you are good.

Eventually we have to get to the point that if you are vaccine hesitant then its your risk. The fortunate thing is most of the vaccines hesitant are also anti lockdown. From my observation in Canada the ones who want the restrictions to remain are comfortable baby boomers in their late 50's and 60's. Anyone under 45 is done with the restrictions.

At least in a number of Western countries, those who are most against vaccines are often also those are less cooperative with other pandemic prevention measures and fails to see the need of them. Hence they might feel socially acceptable to drop pandemic prevention measure like those vaccinated people without actually taking the vaccine, and result in their increased infection rate

aerolimani wrote:

I understand that fully vaccinated people, with at least 3 weeks after their second injection, are not big spreaders. But, how about one dose people? The percentage of two dose people is climbing in the UK, but it’s not all that far along.

The single dose AZ is 33% effective from keeping someone from getting the Delta. I assume slightly less effective preventing the spread. In my opinion, that has been the trend for all vaccines, with attenuated virus vaccines doing little to prevent the spread

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/us ... uxbndlbing


What we need are more doses. 2nd jab everyone and boosters for attenuated virus, AZ, and soon J&J (not yet, probably needed in six months in my opinion).

Lightsaber

c933103 wrote:

StarAC17 wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

A curious observation from the ongoing ZOE study in the UK. It has been noted that amongst vaccinated people who test positive for COVID-19, breakthrough cases, their most common symptom was sneezing.

So now, you have people who, feeling confident with a vaccine in their bodies, are probably more lax with their masking, taking their kids to the park to play with all the other kids, and probably visiting people and going out more. They’re getting infected, but because they’re vaccinated, and the symptoms aren’t COVID-19 typical, they’re probably assuming it’s a normal cold or allergies, and they are doing what projects more aerosols and droplets than anything else, they’re sneezing. Might have something to do with the spread we’re currently seeing in the UK, no?

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

I thought that much of the UK spread was in non vaccinated communities where there are vaccine hesitant people or they haven't yet got it.

Regarding the cold like symptoms this is what was predicted and is similar to the endemic coronaviruses which is what Covid19 is going to be. At the end of the day I like what Andrew Cuomo said. If your vaccinated, don't worry about it you are good.

Eventually we have to get to the point that if you are vaccine hesitant then its your risk. The fortunate thing is most of the vaccines hesitant are also anti lockdown. From my observation in Canada the ones who want the restrictions to remain are comfortable baby boomers in their late 50's and 60's. Anyone under 45 is done with the restrictions.

At least in a number of Western countries, those who are most against vaccines are often also those are less cooperative with other pandemic prevention measures and fails to see the need of them. Hence they might feel socially acceptable to drop pandemic prevention measure like those vaccinated people without actually taking the vaccine, and result in their increased infection rate

The fully vaccinated have nothing to worry about in this case. They will be highly protected. Those who haven't got the vaccine are taking the risk that they may get Covid and if that's their risk so be it.

They won't necessarily get to attend certain events or travel and are at a much higher risk of death or long haul symptoms but once a certain threshold is reached then we need to move on.

lightsaber wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

I understand that fully vaccinated people, with at least 3 weeks after their second injection, are not big spreaders. But, how about one dose people? The percentage of two dose people is climbing in the UK, but it’s not all that far along.

The single dose AZ is 33% effective from keeping someone from getting the Delta. I assume slightly less effective preventing the spread. In my opinion, that has been the trend for all vaccines, with attenuated virus vaccines doing little to prevent the spread

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/us ... uxbndlbing


What we need are more doses. 2nd jab everyone and boosters for attenuated virus, AZ, and soon J&J (not yet, probably needed in six months in my opinion).

Lightsaber

So, a single dose AZ person could still be a pretty effective spreader, it seems.

From casual observation, it seems like a lot of one-dose people are acting like they are 3 weeks past their second dose. So… potentially a bias situation for the UK.

In Canada, people who received AZ can elect to have a second AZ, or to go for an mRNA second shot. It will be interesting to see how the ⚡️AZ/PZ⚡️ cocktail goes.

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20210620/k ... 50/132000c
Chief of Tokyo Olympic Athletes Villa told mass media that, while most people in Japan do not agree with the opening of Olympic, but with the event in current situation, please recognize organization of the event as something that cannot be helped. He said most discussion by now are from Japanese domestic standpoint but it is also important to recognize the organization of Olympic as a promise to international communities, and urge reporters given the current situation, despite dissatisfaction please help show Japan's power, trustworthiness and pride to the world

c933103 wrote:

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20210620/k00/00m/050/132000c
Chief of Tokyo Olympic Athletes Villa told mass media that, while most people in Japan do not agree with the opening of Olympic, but with the event in current situation, please recognize organization of the event as something that cannot be helped. He said most discussion by now are from Japanese domestic standpoint but it is also important to recognize the organization of Olympic as a promise to international communities, and urge reporters given the current situation, despite dissatisfaction please help show Japan's power, trustworthiness and pride to the world

Guilt trip the public and media into acceptance? LOL

For any Japanese who is not getting wealthy off the Olympics (or has already), the domestic situation is the ONLY concern. What a jerk that guy is!

c933103 wrote:

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20210620/k00/00m/050/132000c
Chief of Tokyo Olympic Athletes Villa told mass media that, while most people in Japan do not agree with the opening of Olympic, but with the event in current situation, please recognize organization of the event as something that cannot be helped. He said most discussion by now are from Japanese domestic standpoint but it is also important to recognize the organization of Olympic as a promise to international communities, and urge reporters given the current situation, despite dissatisfaction please help show Japan's power, trustworthiness and pride to the world

Did any country demand Japan to keep its promise?

aerolimani wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

I understand that fully vaccinated people, with at least 3 weeks after their second injection, are not big spreaders. But, how about one dose people? The percentage of two dose people is climbing in the UK, but it’s not all that far along.

The single dose AZ is 33% effective from keeping someone from getting the Delta. I assume slightly less effective preventing the spread. In my opinion, that has been the trend for all vaccines, with attenuated virus vaccines doing little to prevent the spread

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/us ... uxbndlbing


What we need are more doses. 2nd jab everyone and boosters for attenuated virus, AZ, and soon J&J (not yet, probably needed in six months in my opinion).

Lightsaber

So, a single dose AZ person could still be a pretty effective spreader, it seems.

From casual observation, it seems like a lot of one-dose people are acting like they are 3 weeks past their second dose. So… potentially a bias situation for the UK.

In Canada, people who received AZ can elect to have a second AZ, or to go for an mRNA second shot. It will be interesting to see how the ⚡️AZ/PZ⚡️ cocktail goes.

Yes, a single dose could spread, but indications of lower viral loading, so the person who gets it should have a milder case (more time to build a defense).

The UK has an amazing full vaccination rate. Of the effective vaccines, only Israel is doing better (sorry Chile, attenuated virus vaccines are not effective enough in slowing transmission, it seems from my observations).
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EX~CAN~CHL

There is a benefit if reduced hospitalizations with one dose. As long as there is a limited supply of vaccine, decisions must be made.

Due to the UK's prior success of one dose, Canada emulated. The question is, what is the best path going forward?

At the UK's level of vaccination, which is relatively high compared to the world, Delta still moves as fast as Alpha did in an unvaccinated population.

We get back to normal with more vaccine. e.g., new production lines (two more for Moderna coming online):
https://news.yahoo.com/news/cdc-studies ... 17510.html

There is a sub-link pointing out how kids birthday parties are now spreader events increasing transmission 31%, even in well vaccinated areas (they use other words, I'm tired of the press being political, but that is off topic, it makes me question them far more).

Lightsaber

1st Covid19 cluster in a kindergarten (age 5 and 6):
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/202 ... 326424001/

Now it seems minor cases, but this means Covid19 goes into schools and then will transmit to Unvaccinated family members who will likely then spread the virus.

If I could vaccinate my younger child, I would be much happier.

Lightsaber

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/new ... 65835.html
So now there is a "Delta Plus" variant, characterized by the K417N mutation on top of existing Indian-originated variant, the variant otherwise known as "AY.1" is said to show resistance to monoclonal antibody cocktail treatment.
Can someone in the world fix the variant naming, why invent yet some other terminology when greek letter have been decided

Michigan lifted mask mandate and capacity restrictions.

According to a school district e-mail both vaccinated and unvaccinated, staff and Pre-School-12 students are allowed in class rooms without masks.

This is because there are hardly any new cases and very low community transmission.

c933103 wrote:

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/new-covid-19-variant-delta-plus-is-resistant-to-antibody-cocktail-treatment-11623736365835.html
So now there is a "Delta Plus" variant, characterized by the K417N mutation on top of existing Indian-originated variant, the variant otherwise known as "AY.1" is said to show resistance to monoclonal antibody cocktail treatment.
Can someone in the world fix the variant naming, why invent yet some other terminology when greek letter have been decided

The new naming has good intentions, but is confusing. No name foe the original variant? Quick, what is Lambda?

I agree with not stigmatizing places, but switching names is confusing. e.g., most people still call it coronavirus, not Covid19 as they pick names that just do not roll off the tongue.

So many unvaccinated is an issue. I posted a link about a kindergarten outbreak which, while outcomes are minor, means far faster spread.

The hair salon super spreader is interesting. In my opinion shows far less exposure time to delta is required. Why?
https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/nsw-hair ... eader/amp/

Lightsaber

dtw2hyd wrote:

Michigan lifted mask mandate and capacity restrictions.

According to a school district e-mail both vaccinated and unvaccinated, staff and Pre-School-12 students are allowed in class rooms without masks.

This is because there are hardly any new cases and very low community transmission.

In unrelated news, 32 cases of Delta in Michigan.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/loc ... utType=amp

At our vaccination rate, with masks, Delta seems to double weekly. Without masks, this is an interesting case study.

Lightsaber