Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
mercure1 wrote:Europe case counts.
Hopefully, lock-down measures effects kick in.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ex5yUL5UYAI ... ame=medium
lightsaber wrote:mercure1 wrote:Europe case counts.
Hopefully, lock-down measures effects kick in.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ex5yUL5UYAI ... ame=medium
If someone wants to create their own charts, go to add county:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... SR~CHL~ARE
I picked those countries as Chile and EU do not yet seem to be benefitting from vaccines.
US and UAE are in a middle ground
Israel and UK seem to be really benefitting from vaccines.
This sort of correlates with how many had first dose, except uae has a discount and Chile fell out of family.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... +Union~ARE
Lightsaber
LAXintl wrote:
KFTG wrote:Re: Michigan, vaccine hesitancy in the African American community is a problem.
DocLightning wrote:KFTG wrote:Re: Michigan, vaccine hesitancy in the African American community is a problem.
Can you back that up? I've seen a lot of African-American patients clamoring for the vaccine. I think that a lot of the hesitancy got wiped out when they saw wealthy whites trying to angle their way into getting doses early.
KFTG wrote:DocLightning wrote:KFTG wrote:Re: Michigan, vaccine hesitancy in the African American community is a problem.
Can you back that up? I've seen a lot of African-American patients clamoring for the vaccine. I think that a lot of the hesitancy got wiped out when they saw wealthy whites trying to angle their way into getting doses early.
Vaccine hesitancy as of Feb was ~10% higher in the African American community compared to whites or latinos.
https://www.consumerreports.org/vaccina ... americans/
Data reflected in NFID poll: https://www.nfid.org/national-survey-bl ... -vaccines/
dtw2hyd wrote:LAXintl wrote:
We are trying to match COVID-19 positivity rate to GFC 2008 unemployment rate.
StarAC17 wrote:dtw2hyd wrote:LAXintl wrote:
We are trying to match COVID-19 positivity rate to GFC 2008 unemployment rate.
There is a correlation there, the cases are probably in manufacturing, logistics, warehouses etc. something where working from home is impossible, social distancing is hard and they are all essential are getting hit and those people lost jobs in 2008 as well.
I live next door in Ontario and the outbreaks are the B1.1.7 variant. Much of the province has similar businesses as in Michigan they are happening in essential workplaces who live in multi-family households who can't isolate and usually don't have paid time off. These people aren't elderly and their turn hasn't come for vaccination as of yet. Michigan is probably ahead of Canada in this respect of vaccinations but if you look at the economy of Michigan vs say NY and NJ much more of what the economies of NY and NJ can be done from home than in Michigan.
With a new stay at home being announced today order hopefully the Ontario government pivots and focuses vaccines on these essential workers and drops doing entirely in reverse order of age. Long term care homes have been vaccinated and so has hospital staff so the focus needs to be on these groups who have to work to keep society moving and the 65 year old who is retired or the 50 year old manager who can work from home need to be placed back in the line.
dtw2hyd wrote:StarAC17 wrote:dtw2hyd wrote:
We are trying to match COVID-19 positivity rate to GFC 2008 unemployment rate.
There is a correlation there, the cases are probably in manufacturing, logistics, warehouses etc. something where working from home is impossible, social distancing is hard and they are all essential are getting hit and those people lost jobs in 2008 as well.
I live next door in Ontario and the outbreaks are the B1.1.7 variant. Much of the province has similar businesses as in Michigan they are happening in essential workplaces who live in multi-family households who can't isolate and usually don't have paid time off. These people aren't elderly and their turn hasn't come for vaccination as of yet. Michigan is probably ahead of Canada in this respect of vaccinations but if you look at the economy of Michigan vs say NY and NJ much more of what the economies of NY and NJ can be done from home than in Michigan.
With a new stay at home being announced today order hopefully the Ontario government pivots and focuses vaccines on these essential workers and drops doing entirely in reverse order of age. Long term care homes have been vaccinated and so has hospital staff so the focus needs to be on these groups who have to work to keep society moving and the 65 year old who is retired or the 50 year old manager who can work from home need to be placed back in the line.
Universities were always the hot spots. Dine-in and sports are latest culprits. Vaccination is going well, but non-pharma mitigations are out the window.
Fauci and Walensky always find new ways to motivate people the wrong way. Just to encourage vaccination, they are talking down the importance of non-pharma mitigations, now both pro and anti-vaxxers are skipping masks, physical distancing and gathering. Every one standardized on fatigue excuse.
Relatively there is much less manufacturing in Michigan, most of it moved to Mexico or China.
lightsaber wrote:dtw2hyd wrote:StarAC17 wrote:
There is a correlation there, the cases are probably in manufacturing, logistics, warehouses etc. something where working from home is impossible, social distancing is hard and they are all essential are getting hit and those people lost jobs in 2008 as well.
I live next door in Ontario and the outbreaks are the B1.1.7 variant. Much of the province has similar businesses as in Michigan they are happening in essential workplaces who live in multi-family households who can't isolate and usually don't have paid time off. These people aren't elderly and their turn hasn't come for vaccination as of yet. Michigan is probably ahead of Canada in this respect of vaccinations but if you look at the economy of Michigan vs say NY and NJ much more of what the economies of NY and NJ can be done from home than in Michigan.
With a new stay at home being announced today order hopefully the Ontario government pivots and focuses vaccines on these essential workers and drops doing entirely in reverse order of age. Long term care homes have been vaccinated and so has hospital staff so the focus needs to be on these groups who have to work to keep society moving and the 65 year old who is retired or the 50 year old manager who can work from home need to be placed back in the line.
Universities were always the hot spots. Dine-in and sports are latest culprits. Vaccination is going well, but non-pharma mitigations are out the window.
Fauci and Walensky always find new ways to motivate people the wrong way. Just to encourage vaccination, they are talking down the importance of non-pharma mitigations, now both pro and anti-vaxxers are skipping masks, physical distancing and gathering. Every one standardized on fatigue excuse.
Relatively there is much less manufacturing in Michigan, most of it moved to Mexico or China.
I must agree, the new communication is... poor and because of prior communication, it is creating issues.
Opening up will spike cases, just with a substantial time lag. Now, it also takes time for vaccines to work their magic. So the question is, will enough people be vaccinated timely to matter or not? My bet is on one last big spike in the USA. For most of the world, they will experience the current spike (or 4th wave) and I would predict (just my opinion) another two in 2021.
Lightsaber
lightsaber wrote:dtw2hyd wrote:StarAC17 wrote:
There is a correlation there, the cases are probably in manufacturing, logistics, warehouses etc. something where working from home is impossible, social distancing is hard and they are all essential are getting hit and those people lost jobs in 2008 as well.
I live next door in Ontario and the outbreaks are the B1.1.7 variant. Much of the province has similar businesses as in Michigan they are happening in essential workplaces who live in multi-family households who can't isolate and usually don't have paid time off. These people aren't elderly and their turn hasn't come for vaccination as of yet. Michigan is probably ahead of Canada in this respect of vaccinations but if you look at the economy of Michigan vs say NY and NJ much more of what the economies of NY and NJ can be done from home than in Michigan.
With a new stay at home being announced today order hopefully the Ontario government pivots and focuses vaccines on these essential workers and drops doing entirely in reverse order of age. Long term care homes have been vaccinated and so has hospital staff so the focus needs to be on these groups who have to work to keep society moving and the 65 year old who is retired or the 50 year old manager who can work from home need to be placed back in the line.
Universities were always the hot spots. Dine-in and sports are latest culprits. Vaccination is going well, but non-pharma mitigations are out the window.
Fauci and Walensky always find new ways to motivate people the wrong way. Just to encourage vaccination, they are talking down the importance of non-pharma mitigations, now both pro and anti-vaxxers are skipping masks, physical distancing and gathering. Every one standardized on fatigue excuse.
Relatively there is much less manufacturing in Michigan, most of it moved to Mexico or China.
I must agree, the new communication is... poor and because of prior communication, it is creating issues.
Opening up will spike cases, just with a substantial time lag. Now, it also takes time for vaccines to work their magic. So the question is, will enough people be vaccinated timely to matter or not? My bet is on one last big spike in the USA. For most of the world, they will experience the current spike (or 4th wave) and I would predict (just my opinion) another two in 2021.
Lightsaber
Dr. Rochelle Walensky says vaccines aren’t quick answer to current COVID situation
lightsaber wrote:dtw2hyd wrote:StarAC17 wrote:
There is a correlation there, the cases are probably in manufacturing, logistics, warehouses etc. something where working from home is impossible, social distancing is hard and they are all essential are getting hit and those people lost jobs in 2008 as well.
I live next door in Ontario and the outbreaks are the B1.1.7 variant. Much of the province has similar businesses as in Michigan they are happening in essential workplaces who live in multi-family households who can't isolate and usually don't have paid time off. These people aren't elderly and their turn hasn't come for vaccination as of yet. Michigan is probably ahead of Canada in this respect of vaccinations but if you look at the economy of Michigan vs say NY and NJ much more of what the economies of NY and NJ can be done from home than in Michigan.
With a new stay at home being announced today order hopefully the Ontario government pivots and focuses vaccines on these essential workers and drops doing entirely in reverse order of age. Long term care homes have been vaccinated and so has hospital staff so the focus needs to be on these groups who have to work to keep society moving and the 65 year old who is retired or the 50 year old manager who can work from home need to be placed back in the line.
Universities were always the hot spots. Dine-in and sports are latest culprits. Vaccination is going well, but non-pharma mitigations are out the window.
Fauci and Walensky always find new ways to motivate people the wrong way. Just to encourage vaccination, they are talking down the importance of non-pharma mitigations, now both pro and anti-vaxxers are skipping masks, physical distancing and gathering. Every one standardized on fatigue excuse.
Relatively there is much less manufacturing in Michigan, most of it moved to Mexico or China.
I must agree, the new communication is... poor and because of prior communication, it is creating issues.
Opening up will spike cases, just with a substantial time lag. Now, it also takes time for vaccines to work their magic. So the question is, will enough people be vaccinated timely to matter or not? My bet is on one last big spike in the USA. For most of the world, they will experience the current spike (or 4th wave) and I would predict (just my opinion) another two in 2021.
Lightsaber
KFTG wrote:Regeneron's "COVID pill" apparently 81% effective
https://news.yahoo.com/regenerons-covid ... 35414.html
Tiredofhumanity wrote:WHO finally recommends shutdown of live animal markets:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory ... s-77038914
c933103 wrote:Tiredofhumanity wrote:WHO finally recommends shutdown of live animal markets:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory ... s-77038914
Wild animal market.
Derico wrote:At this point in the match, what's the point of travel bans between countries, particularly those that have similar epidemiologic profiles? Why is travel restricted between European countries? Why is travel banned between Asian countries that have low virus rates? Why is the US-Canadian border closed? Why still the restrictions in the southern Cone countries? I can understand if a new strain is detected to target a specific country (although I tend to believe it's just nothing but PR), but really, the virus is now literally everywhere and within the areas mentioned there are not large differences in the epidemic status, so why still have these draconian measures? Travel bans were supposed to keep something OUT. To keep on with them now is like amputating the foot after the infection spread to the whole leg. Useless now. That is not to say travel should be unlimited, some restrictions should be placed in order to control crowd size and human density, but why keep hotels and airlines to continue to destroy millions of jobs? And furthermore, the vulnerable populations should soon be fully vaccinated in a lot of areas. That was the whole point originally anyways.
c933103 wrote:Derico wrote:At this point in the match, what's the point of travel bans between countries, particularly those that have similar epidemiologic profiles? Why is travel restricted between European countries? Why is travel banned between Asian countries that have low virus rates? Why is the US-Canadian border closed? Why still the restrictions in the southern Cone countries? I can understand if a new strain is detected to target a specific country (although I tend to believe it's just nothing but PR), but really, the virus is now literally everywhere and within the areas mentioned there are not large differences in the epidemic status, so why still have these draconian measures? Travel bans were supposed to keep something OUT. To keep on with them now is like amputating the foot after the infection spread to the whole leg. Useless now. That is not to say travel should be unlimited, some restrictions should be placed in order to control crowd size and human density, but why keep hotels and airlines to continue to destroy millions of jobs? And furthermore, the vulnerable populations should soon be fully vaccinated in a lot of areas. That was the whole point originally anyways.
Reducing the spread of mutation and reducing possible interaction between mutation that form new clusters, and in low case count countries, reducing the chance of starting a new wave since traveling especially those that are for leisure often involve many high risk activities that might help spread of virus
c933103 wrote:Is it true that long term neurological covid symptoms are more likely to happen in people who have done exercise during their initial coronavirus infection period?
KFTG wrote:US now in 5th week of below average excess deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm
https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID_ ... share_link
dtw2hyd wrote:Well now MI Governor came to senses and suggesting to suspend dine-in and in-seat teaching for schools, both restaurants and school districts refuse to heed her suggestion.
https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/g ... -timeline/
And feds refused to give additional vaccine doses for hot stops. Michigan has 7 out of 10 hot spots in the country.
https://www.wilx.com/2021/04/08/michiga ... vid-surge/
DocLightning wrote:dtw2hyd wrote:Well now MI Governor came to senses and suggesting to suspend dine-in and in-seat teaching for schools, both restaurants and school districts refuse to heed her suggestion.
https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/g ... -timeline/
And feds refused to give additional vaccine doses for hot stops. Michigan has 7 out of 10 hot spots in the country.
https://www.wilx.com/2021/04/08/michiga ... vid-surge/
It's a problem. A lockdown isn't an option given the political and regulatory environment in MI. Speeding vaccines is, but frankly, it won't make much of a difference given the supply glut that is going to happen everywhere now. And even if it were a viable option, it raises the moral hazard that more states will choose to recklessly reopen because they can always ask for a vaccine surge.
lightsaber wrote:c933103 wrote:Derico wrote:At this point in the match, what's the point of travel bans between countries, particularly those that have similar epidemiologic profiles? Why is travel restricted between European countries? Why is travel banned between Asian countries that have low virus rates? Why is the US-Canadian border closed? Why still the restrictions in the southern Cone countries? I can understand if a new strain is detected to target a specific country (although I tend to believe it's just nothing but PR), but really, the virus is now literally everywhere and within the areas mentioned there are not large differences in the epidemic status, so why still have these draconian measures? Travel bans were supposed to keep something OUT. To keep on with them now is like amputating the foot after the infection spread to the whole leg. Useless now. That is not to say travel should be unlimited, some restrictions should be placed in order to control crowd size and human density, but why keep hotels and airlines to continue to destroy millions of jobs? And furthermore, the vulnerable populations should soon be fully vaccinated in a lot of areas. That was the whole point originally anyways.
Reducing the spread of mutation and reducing possible interaction between mutation that form new clusters, and in low case count countries, reducing the chance of starting a new wave since traveling especially those that are for leisure often involve many high risk activities that might help spread of virus
Agreed. The goal is slow spread of B.1.427/429, B.1.526, P.1, and B.1.617 while dealing with B.1.1.7.
Those are the ones where prior exposure produces less immunity. The hope is to vaccinate enough to allow a return to normal travel.
Getting enough vaccinated requires more production and a children's vaccine.
Lightsaber
Derico wrote:...
Sometimes you have to just admit, humans are not that powerful or smart, really.
Derico wrote:The vaccines have failed either in being safe, or effective since now I hear people getting reinfected all over the place. The key question is, are vaccinated people who are catching "breakthrough" variants getting severely ill. Hopefully not.
Derico wrote:lightsaber wrote:c933103 wrote:Reducing the spread of mutation and reducing possible interaction between mutation that form new clusters, and in low case count countries, reducing the chance of starting a new wave since traveling especially those that are for leisure often involve many high risk activities that might help spread of virus
Agreed. The goal is slow spread of B.1.427/429, B.1.526, P.1, and B.1.617 while dealing with B.1.1.7.
Those are the ones where prior exposure produces less immunity. The hope is to vaccinate enough to allow a return to normal travel.
Getting enough vaccinated requires more production and a children's vaccine.
Lightsaber
Guys, with all due respect. The genie is long out of the bottle, and you are not getting it back in. Look at what you guys are saying: "We need to stop B.1427, and B.1.249, and B 1.526, and P.1 and B.1617, while dealing... ". This of course does not even deal with the rumored New York, India, Buenos Aires, Belarus rumored variants. And for every detected 'mutant' I bet there are 5 more unaccounted for. Only a couple of months ago we were only talking about 1 variant (UK). In a few months there will be 30 guaranteed and the media will stop counting them.
Game up, guys. I have clearly now switched more towards the "economic" and "mental health side". People should limit exposure, older people should be protected, and critical workers taken care of, mass gatherings should still be restricted, but it is absurd to think we can keep this bottled. The only thing bottled is the world economy and nerves at this point. I don't advocate free-willy travel. The vaccines have failed either in being safe, or effective since now I hear people getting reinfected all over the place. The key question is, are vaccinated people who are catching "breakthrough" variants getting severely ill. Hopefully not.
I don't advocate unrestricted travel and other activities that are of social nature, but this situation is untenable beyond 90 to 120. People will not tolerate another winter locked, and you are already seeing popular revolts all over the place.
Sometimes you have to just admit, humans are not that powerful or smart, really.
Derico wrote:lightsaber wrote:c933103 wrote:Reducing the spread of mutation and reducing possible interaction between mutation that form new clusters, and in low case count countries, reducing the chance of starting a new wave since traveling especially those that are for leisure often involve many high risk activities that might help spread of virus
Agreed. The goal is slow spread of B.1.427/429, B.1.526, P.1, and B.1.617 while dealing with B.1.1.7.
Those are the ones where prior exposure produces less immunity. The hope is to vaccinate enough to allow a return to normal travel.
Getting enough vaccinated requires more production and a children's vaccine.
Lightsaber
Guys, with all due respect. The genie is long out of the bottle, and you are not getting it back in. Look at what you guys are saying: "We need to stop B.1427, and B.1.249, and B 1.526, and P.1 and B.1617, while dealing... ". This of course does not even deal with the rumored New York, India, Buenos Aires, Belarus rumored variants. And for every detected 'mutant' I bet there are 5 more unaccounted for. Only a couple of months ago we were only talking about 1 variant (UK). In a few months there will be 30 guaranteed and the media will stop counting them.
Game up, guys. I have clearly now switched more towards the "economic" and "mental health side". People should limit exposure, older people should be protected, and critical workers taken care of, mass gatherings should still be restricted, but it is absurd to think we can keep this bottled. The only thing bottled is the world economy and nerves at this point. I don't advocate free-willy travel. The vaccines have failed either in being safe, or effective since now I hear people getting reinfected all over the place. The key question is, are vaccinated people who are catching "breakthrough" variants getting severely ill. Hopefully not.
I don't advocate unrestricted travel and other activities that are of social nature, but this situation is untenable beyond 90 to 120. People will not tolerate another winter locked, and you are already seeing popular revolts all over the place.
Sometimes you have to just admit, humans are not that powerful or smart, really.
c933103 wrote:Derico wrote:lightsaber wrote:Agreed. The goal is slow spread of B.1.427/429, B.1.526, P.1, and B.1.617 while dealing with B.1.1.7.
Those are the ones where prior exposure produces less immunity. The hope is to vaccinate enough to allow a return to normal travel.
Getting enough vaccinated requires more production and a children's vaccine.
Lightsaber
Guys, with all due respect. The genie is long out of the bottle, and you are not getting it back in. Look at what you guys are saying: "We need to stop B.1427, and B.1.249, and B 1.526, and P.1 and B.1617, while dealing... ". This of course does not even deal with the rumored New York, India, Buenos Aires, Belarus rumored variants. And for every detected 'mutant' I bet there are 5 more unaccounted for. Only a couple of months ago we were only talking about 1 variant (UK). In a few months there will be 30 guaranteed and the media will stop counting them.
Game up, guys. I have clearly now switched more towards the "economic" and "mental health side". People should limit exposure, older people should be protected, and critical workers taken care of, mass gatherings should still be restricted, but it is absurd to think we can keep this bottled. The only thing bottled is the world economy and nerves at this point. I don't advocate free-willy travel. The vaccines have failed either in being safe, or effective since now I hear people getting reinfected all over the place. The key question is, are vaccinated people who are catching "breakthrough" variants getting severely ill. Hopefully not.
I don't advocate unrestricted travel and other activities that are of social nature, but this situation is untenable beyond 90 to 120. People will not tolerate another winter locked, and you are already seeing popular revolts all over the place.
Sometimes you have to just admit, humans are not that powerful or smart, really.
It is not the correct approach to track variants by their individual strain, instead we should track according to the mutations that matter, of which until now there are only three mutations that are significant, which are D614G, N501Y, and E484K.
Strains featuring D614G have already become dominant across the world last summer so we can treat it as baseline
Strains featuring N501Y, with higher infectivity, is now becoming dominant in various parts of the world. Most named strains, like those fron UK, Brazil, South Africa, carry this mutation
Strains featuring E484K, can weaken vaccine's effect. The mutation is featured in likw the Brazil and South Africa variants but not in most cases with UK variant.
Each variants and strains also feature dozens other mutation but no special effect have been discovered from those other mutations yet, and thus we don't need to worry too much about those.
Focus on mutations that are shown to matter.
lightsaber wrote:
However, we're not going to get the mutations into general conversation. A dinner I had last night with bright friends proved that.
lightsaber wrote:We are well past glaze over point for most people. I agree you are correct in the science, but to facilitate helpful conversations, this must related to something people understand. And sometimes one variation isn't of concern unless it is... dum dum dum (ominous music) it is a "double variant."
Lightsaber
c933103 wrote:Tiredofhumanity wrote:WHO finally recommends shutdown of live animal markets:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory ... s-77038914
Wild animal market.
dtw2hyd wrote:Air Vistara sets record in COVID-19 infections on a single flight.
Happened on UK6359 of April 4, 2021, 6 tested +ve at airport 43 during mandatory quarantine in hotels. Current count is 49.
Capacity is 188 but it appears at least 24 seats were blocked. This beats earlier record by EK DXB-HKG.
There is little to no coverage on Indian MSM.
https://twitter.com/tripperhead/status/ ... 4930110475
NDTV as usual keeps for 5 minutes and buries the story
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/hong-ko ... ve-2416741
Also, UK red lists India as B1617 The Double Mutant variant becoming prevalent in UK.
https://news.sky.com/story/india-added- ... s-12280454