c933103 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Air Vistara sets record in COVID-19 infections on a single flight.
Happened on UK6359 of April 4, 2021, 6 tested +ve at airport 43 during mandatory quarantine in hotels. Current count is 49.
Capacity is 188 but it appears at least 24 seats were blocked. This beats earlier record by EK DXB-HKG.
There is little to no coverage on Indian MSM.
https://twitter.com/tripperhead/status/ ... 4930110475

NDTV as usual keeps for 5 minutes and buries the story
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/hong-ko ... ve-2416741

Also, UK red lists India as B1617 The Double Mutant variant becoming prevalent in UK.
https://news.sky.com/story/india-added- ... s-12280454

When a variant is "becoming prevalent" it is usually too late to do any redlisting since the domestic transmission is already sufficient to help the strain spread and potentially gaining dominance, but I guess it can help slowing the rate
Also is there transmission at hotel or on the plane too?

There is a PCR test mandate 72 hours before flight. Only with -ve tests will be allowed to fly, 6 tested positive on landing, very unlikely an enroute transmission will have enough virus load to test +ve. We also don't know which variants, except one being N501Y.

So there are several possibilities, bad tests, forged test documents, were cabin crew infected?

Australia had a hotel room transmission.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... -in-sydney

New Zealand had a case where a plane cleaning staff contracted while cleaning a plane from red zone.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... vel-bubble

Both these incidents support the hypothesis it is airborne.

Indians are behaving as if there is no pandemic. No masks, no physical distancing, vacations, weddings, parties, family gatherings as usual. Most of the travel is non-essential.

dtw2hyd wrote:

c933103 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Air Vistara sets record in COVID-19 infections on a single flight.
Happened on UK6359 of April 4, 2021, 6 tested +ve at airport 43 during mandatory quarantine in hotels. Current count is 49.
Capacity is 188 but it appears at least 24 seats were blocked. This beats earlier record by EK DXB-HKG.
There is little to no coverage on Indian MSM.
https://twitter.com/tripperhead/status/ ... 4930110475

NDTV as usual keeps for 5 minutes and buries the story
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/hong-ko ... ve-2416741

Also, UK red lists India as B1617 The Double Mutant variant becoming prevalent in UK.
https://news.sky.com/story/india-added- ... s-12280454

When a variant is "becoming prevalent" it is usually too late to do any redlisting since the domestic transmission is already sufficient to help the strain spread and potentially gaining dominance, but I guess it can help slowing the rate
Also is there transmission at hotel or on the plane too?

There is a PCR test mandate 72 hours before flight. Only with -ve tests will be allowed to fly, 6 tested positive on landing, very unlikely an enroute transmission will have enough virus load to test +ve. We also don't know which variants, except one being N501Y.

So there are several possibilities, bad tests, forged test documents, were cabin crew infected?

Australia had a hotel room transmission.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... -in-sydney

New Zealand had a case where a plane cleaning staff contracted while cleaning a plane from red zone.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... vel-bubble

Both these incidents support the hypothesis it is airborne.

Indians are behaving as if there is no pandemic. No masks, no physical distancing, vacations, weddings, parties, family gatherings as usual. Most of the travel is non-essential.

PCR test 72 hours before flight mean nothing when about half the case have an incubation period of about 2-3 days

c933103 wrote:

...
PCR test 72 hours before flight mean nothing when about half the case have an incubation period of about 2-3 days

Sorry before is not the correct word, within 72 hours, because of the lead times to get the results back, most travelers do it close to 72 hours.

Yes, infection can occur during those 72 hours, and no restrictions on activity, so basically the whole testing is a theater.

Good news - NC to re-open by 01June, mask requirement to remain
https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-caroli ... by-june-1/

I know not a great source, but this is why countries need to report excess deaths. In India, one area 228 official coronavirus deaths, claims actual 1833.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... igher.html

e.g., finding data for most countries is trivial. e.g., USA:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

I found for England and I'm sure if I put any effort, I'd find more for the UK (my point is the data is there and public):
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... ly-reports

How bad is it in India? The positivity rate is high enough that I believe anything over 10% indicates people who need tests are not able to get them.

https://www.republicworld.com/india-new ... per%20week.

This link implies without a Covid19 test a Hospital refused a patient. Is a Covid19 test required fir hospital entry in India?
https://news.yahoo.com/news/india-covid ... 35702.html

My point is the data from India seems to be very under-represented vs. UK and my opinion Brazil do good jobs of data reporting. There data even ends up on aggregate sites that lets me be lazy looking for information (one
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

I speculate India has far worse coronavirus than the official numbers. I have become during this pandemic of the opinion that tracking hospitalizations and deaths are the most important public health numbers. Making them public is just rational.

How bad is it really in India?

Lightsaber

KFTG wrote:

Good news - NC to re-open by 01June, mask requirement to remain
https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-caroli ... by-june-1/

I feel like this is a carrot offering. Being here in NC there is a stubborn subset of folks that are not wanting to get vaccinated. Hopefully this will push them to get the vaccinations. Everyone 16 and older is now eligible for the vaccine in NC.

The Mask offering could be lifted as quoted below.

As of today, almost half of adults have had at least one shot and more than a third are fully vaccinated. For our more vulnerable age 65 and older population, almost 77 percent have had at least one shot and more than 71 percent are fully vaccinated. That’s great news,” Cooper said.

Cohen said the mask mandate could be lifted if two-thirds of adults receive at least one dose of a vaccine and if trends remain stable.

Based on the numbers in Israel, it seems this is a qualifiable promise.

dtw2hyd wrote:

c933103 wrote:

...
PCR test 72 hours before flight mean nothing when about half the case have an incubation period of about 2-3 days

Sorry before is not the correct word, within 72 hours, because of the lead times to get the results back, most travelers do it close to 72 hours.

Yes, infection can occur during those 72 hours, and no restrictions on activity, so basically the whole testing is a theater.

Its straightforward really. The average incubation period is 5 days and you are contagious usually 2 days before any symptoms appear and would fail a test at that time.

Easy timeline.

- Person gets Exposed on April 18th.
- Gets tested Monday April 19th for a flight today April 22nd - 72 hours prior, gets results in 24 hours, test negative
- Arrives at destination April 23rd. Test on arrival is positive
- Symptoms appear the next day or two.

This could also be this which is the reason for the quarantine even if testing negative upon arrival.

- Gets tested Monday April 19th for a flight today April 22nd - 72 hours prior, gets results in 24 hours, test negative
- Gets exposed on April 21st - 1 day before flight.
- Arrives at destination April 23rd. Test on arrival is negative.
- Person goes to an indoor gathering on April 24th and is contagious.
- Symptomatic on April 26th - 5 days after exposure and passed to 5 other people.

The question is with the virus so rampant in the community is the quarantine really required if only say 1-2% of cases are from overseas. The exact same timeline could apply for any other individual who moves about their business without international travel as well.

StarAC17 wrote:

The question is with the virus so rampant in the community is the quarantine really required if only say 1-2% of cases are from overseas. The exact same timeline could apply for any other individual who moves about their business without international travel as well.

It depends on which places you're talking about. In Hong Kong there are only like ~0-3 new local cases each days, at least those that are being discovered, while it is usual to have new cases detected at point of import or quarantine facilities being double digits each day.
And then, even if a places have rampant outbreak, movement limitation still have merit not just in stop introducing new source of transmission but also in stopping mutations and variants from spreading and mixing with each other

lightsaber wrote:

How bad is it in India? The positivity rate is high enough that I believe anything over 10% indicates people who need tests are not able to get them.

Lightsaber

Lack of press freedom makes it very difficult. MSM just reads the statements from government. Social media is also indirectly controlled by troll armies using platforms' own rules.
Some media outlets are trying to break loose because their own family and friends are dying. But overall fear of government still exists.

Here are few examples of under reporting.
https://www.newindianexpress.com/states ... 91811.html
https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the ... r-covid-19
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 048522.cms
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 352916.ece
https://twitter.com/Swamy39/status/1384 ... 35/photo/1

Testing is commercial, no insurance coverage and from $20-$30. Imagine a family of four from onset of symptoms to recovery paying for testing from their own pocket. $360 in 30 days. That is more than their monthly income for many , so skip tests and hope for the best.

Vaccines are mostly self-paid, latest retail price for $8(AZ) to $10(estimated SputnikV). Imagine 2.8 Billion doses, ie.,$22B-$28B paid by public.

Cheapest ICU bed is $200 per day. Have to pay cash in advance.

Twitter is full of requests for oxygen beds and Remidsvir.

The double mutant hit middle class and above mainly young with a vengeance, somehow spared slums.

We are blessed even being the leader of capitalist nations, government and private insurance companies didn't hesitate to provide free testing and vaccines.

lightsaber wrote:

I know not a great source, but this is why countries need to report excess deaths. In India, one area 228 official coronavirus deaths, claims actual 1833.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... igher.html

e.g., finding data for most countries is trivial. e.g., USA:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

I found for England and I'm sure if I put any effort, I'd find more for the UK (my point is the data is there and public):
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... ly-reports

How bad is it in India? The positivity rate is high enough that I believe anything over 10% indicates people who need tests are not able to get them.

https://www.republicworld.com/india-new ... per%20week.

This link implies without a Covid19 test a Hospital refused a patient. Is a Covid19 test required fir hospital entry in India?
https://news.yahoo.com/news/india-covid ... 35702.html

My point is the data from India seems to be very under-represented vs. UK and my opinion Brazil do good jobs of data reporting. There data even ends up on aggregate sites that lets me be lazy looking for information (one
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

I speculate India has far worse coronavirus than the official numbers. I have become during this pandemic of the opinion that tracking hospitalizations and deaths are the most important public health numbers. Making them public is just rational.

How bad is it really in India?

Lightsaber

Not sure but if you haven't seen it, the Economist has a nice tracker of over mortality aka excess death:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... hs-tracker

For Europe I have the Swiss TV link, scroll towards the end of the page. Most data comes from The Economist (I found the link there)
https://www.srf.ch/news/international/c ... n-weltweit

For India there seems no official data available...

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I know not a great source, but this is why countries need to report excess deaths. In India, one area 228 official coronavirus deaths, claims actual 1833.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... igher.html

e.g., finding data for most countries is trivial. e.g., USA:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

I found for England and I'm sure if I put any effort, I'd find more for the UK (my point is the data is there and public):
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... ly-reports

How bad is it in India? The positivity rate is high enough that I believe anything over 10% indicates people who need tests are not able to get them.

https://www.republicworld.com/india-new ... per%20week.

This link implies without a Covid19 test a Hospital refused a patient. Is a Covid19 test required fir hospital entry in India?
https://news.yahoo.com/news/india-covid ... 35702.html

My point is the data from India seems to be very under-represented vs. UK and my opinion Brazil do good jobs of data reporting. There data even ends up on aggregate sites that lets me be lazy looking for information (one
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

I speculate India has far worse coronavirus than the official numbers. I have become during this pandemic of the opinion that tracking hospitalizations and deaths are the most important public health numbers. Making them public is just rational.

How bad is it really in India?

Lightsaber

Not sure but if you haven't seen it, the Economist has a nice tracker of over mortality aka excess death:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... hs-tracker

For Europe I have the Swiss TV link, scroll towards the end of the page. Most data comes from The Economist (I found the link there)
https://www.srf.ch/news/international/c ... n-weltweit

For India there seems no official data available...

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Thank you for the economist link. An excellent summary. If the data is public, it can be aggregated and better health policy formed.

I am unaware of India official data, so how bad is coronavirus, really? I do not expect an answer, it us more of a statement of concern.

Lightsaber

dtw2hyd wrote:

The double mutant hit middle class and above mainly young with a vengeance, somehow spared slums.

As noted, testing is pay out of pocket.

How do we know the slums were spared?

Traditionally, slums have a higher disease rate. e.g. Cholora.
https://origins.osu.edu/article/pandemi ... luenza-hiv

My concern is lack of testing is missing the spread in the slums. With the exodus from the cities, how far will it spread?

Going from the biophysics of a respiratory virus killed by UV, I would expect outdoor workers to be less effected. e.g., my doctors (I consulted three) speculated my daily lunch time walk made my case milder. Excercise helps (why, I don't fully know). But high density sleeping arrangements are known to be bad.

So I suspect uncounted instead if not happening, but less severe than for sedentary white collar workers on average.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

The double mutant hit middle class and above mainly young with a vengeance, somehow spared slums.

As noted, testing is pay out of pocket.

How do we know the slums were spared?

Traditionally, slums have a higher disease rate. e.g. Cholora.
https://origins.osu.edu/article/pandemi ... luenza-hiv

My concern is lack of testing is missing the spread in the slums. With the exodus from the cities, how far will it spread?

Going from the biophysics of a respiratory virus killed by UV, I would expect outdoor workers to be less effected. e.g., my doctors (I consulted three) speculated my daily lunch time walk made my case milder. Excercise helps (why, I don't fully know). But high density sleeping arrangements are known to be bad.

So I suspect uncounted instead if not happening, but less severe than for sedentary white collar workers on average.

Lightsaber

From what I have been reading the numbers will catch up. Even in the US , there were up to 21 days between deaths nd their official recordings.

The https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ekly_table
is showing the +84% jump in deaths from 7 day deaths to previous 7 day deaths .

The W

lightsaber wrote:

How do we know the slums were spared?
Lightsaber

Thais what medical experts and volunteer groups are claiming. Containment zones are mainly apartments in middle/upscale neighborhoods.

First round when it hit slums, they self administered paracetamol, HCQ, Vitamin D, Zinc, and Vitamin C. Yes you can get without prescription.

Now Remdisivir is in high demand. COVID climbing up the social ladder.

lightsaber wrote:

I am unaware of India official data, so how bad is coronavirus, really? I do not expect an answer, it us more of a statement of concern.

There is this FT article: https://amp.ft.com/content/683914a3-134 ... ssion=true

On of the coauthor, John Burn-Murdoch, has provided some info's on Twitter. I'm not sure how accurate the info is. Some of the graphs are in the FT article, some not.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch ... 9879517185

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

dtw2hyd wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

How do we know the slums were spared?
Lightsaber

Thais what medical experts and volunteer groups are claiming. Containment zones are mainly apartments in middle/upscale neighborhoods.

First round when it hit slums, they self administered paracetamol, HCQ, Vitamin D, Zinc, and Vitamin C. Yes you can get without prescription.

Now Remdisivir is in high demand. COVID climbing up the social ladder.

I personally believe vitamin C, Zinc, and Vitamin D really help. HCQ can, or it might not.
I was doing all the above before I caught Covid19. No HCQ, but lots of vitamin C (I grow fruit), taking zinc tablets, and the amount of vitamin D is pretty high (I still drink a bunch of milk too).

But the #1 benefit probably was my mask wearing and social distancing which gave me a minor initial exposure.

I did find one link claiming coronavirus was only in the high rise buildings, not the slums.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/localnew ... NewsSearch

Something doesn't seem right in the biophysics. Yes, UV helps (outdoor workers, such as construction). But high density hurts.

Perhaps more in the slums had Covid19 last year and thus have some immunity. From the above link:
In the first wave, slums were worst affected. For example, in June 2020, of the total Covid cases in the city, almost two-thirds were reported from slums and chawls, which have high population density. And 42 lakh people in slums were in containment zones compared with 8 lakh residing in buildings.

So it could be the slums built up immunity from before. Perhaps the prior experience built better habits.

I still have some long haul symptoms, so I don't recommend avoiding a vaccine, but this isn't that thread. I will note the vaccine has helped better than my doctor suggested.

Lightsaber

What is interesting is the official India case rate is just now crossing above the US case rate (cases per million). The rate is also far less than the rate of the EU, Chile, or Brazil.
Something is not adding up.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... +Union~BRA

Was it behavior (no masks)?
The B.1.617 variant?

This will be an interesting health case study for years to come.

Lightsaber

Some interesting clear as mud news about Indian double mutant.

A week back

RT-PCR tests ‘do not miss any mutant strains’

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 338546.ece


Change of heart now, may skip PCR test, additional symptoms

New mutant seems to be undetectable by RTPCR test. I believe there are double & triple mutant varieties&due to change in structure, RTPCR tests unable to detect. New varieties seem to cause new symptoms: Dr Chandra, Consultant Physician, Helvetia Medical Centre,Delhi*

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1385589648404013069

Double mutant’ COVID-19 variant colonises lungs directly, evades RT-PCR: Experts

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/hea ... erts-76609
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 422201458/
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/arti ... tor/748861

dtw2hyd wrote:

Some interesting clear as mud news about Indian double mutant.

A week back

RT-PCR tests ‘do not miss any mutant strains’

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 338546.ece


Change of heart now, may skip PCR test, additional symptoms

New mutant seems to be undetectable by RTPCR test. I believe there are double & triple mutant varieties&due to change in structure, RTPCR tests unable to detect. New varieties seem to cause new symptoms: Dr Chandra, Consultant Physician, Helvetia Medical Centre,Delhi*

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1385589648404013069

Double mutant’ COVID-19 variant colonises lungs directly, evades RT-PCR: Experts

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/hea ... erts-76609
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 422201458/
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/arti ... tor/748861

Has any of this been independently verified?

BBC is reporting we are only hearing about the cases where there is testing in India.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GeADrL3_Sw

Unfortunately, I think we have no Idea of how bad it really is. They are running "oxygen supply at lower level."
What?!? My sister (doctor in a Covid19 ward) is a huge fan of high flow oxygen as a life saver. Claiming that lower oxygen isn't killing people isn't, in my opinion, true. For if high flow oxygen will save someone, than turning down the supply won't save people.

My heart goes out to India.

I wonder if we'll ever know the true extent.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Some interesting clear as mud news about Indian double mutant.

A week back

RT-PCR tests ‘do not miss any mutant strains’

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 338546.ece


Change of heart now, may skip PCR test, additional symptoms

New mutant seems to be undetectable by RTPCR test. I believe there are double & triple mutant varieties&due to change in structure, RTPCR tests unable to detect. New varieties seem to cause new symptoms: Dr Chandra, Consultant Physician, Helvetia Medical Centre,Delhi*

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1385589648404013069

Double mutant’ COVID-19 variant colonises lungs directly, evades RT-PCR: Experts

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/hea ... erts-76609
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 422201458/
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/arti ... tor/748861

Not sure about specific situation of mutations in circulation in India, but the general situation is:
- There're some virus strain elsewhere that have been reported to attack the lung much more prominently than upper respiratory tract, and thus when you take test sample from one's throat or nose or saliva, there are chance that the virus cannot be detected in those area, but the virus have already entered the lung and you need to take samples directly from the lung for test to see the patient have been infected
- Different kinds of PCR tests target different parts of virus genome. If some of the genome targeted by a PCR test have mutated in some strain then some PCR tests targetting that specific part of genome could see reduce in sensitivity. The exact situation should be different for each PCR test and should also be different for different variants

lightsaber wrote:

Was it behavior (no masks)?
The B.1.617 variant?

This will be an interesting health case study for years to come.

Lightsaber

Is that and that only.

In a country, where people don't follow basic road rules, you expect them to follow mask rules?

Many simply don't understand the science behind this and have their masks on their mouth or chin only, while exposing their nose. And for some, it's to show a sign of strength that nothing can happen to them because they're so healthy and strong, and that masks are for the weak. I see this attitude particularly in certain older males, where they feel it's more manly to not wear a mask.

Post the easing of the national lockdown last year, people were a bit disciplined for a few months, till like Sept-Oct. However, post that, as things started to "appear" normal i.e crowds returned back to the roads & public places and everything was opened up, it's almost like the public then forgot about the pandemic. Even though law enforcement had to chase and run behind people to mask up, how much can they do that in a country of 1.4bn? Unless India brings about some China like discipline and law enforcement tactics, which I hope they do, it's a mammoth task to ensure total compliance of such health related rules like masking up.

Whatever is playing out now, is simply the behaviour of the public over the last few months.

The various mutated variants may have fuelled the spread ,but only the public is to blamed.

avier wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Was it behavior (no masks)?
The B.1.617 variant?

This will be an interesting health case study for years to come.

Lightsaber

Is that and that only.

In a country, where people don't follow basic road rules, you expect them to follow mask rules?

Many simply don't understand the science behind this and have their masks on their mouth or chin only, while exposing their nose. And for some, it's to show a sign of strength that nothing can happen to them because they're so healthy and strong, and that masks are for the weak. I see this attitude particularly in certain older males, where they feel it's more manly to not wear a mask.

Post the easing of the national lockdown last year, people were a bit disciplined for a few months, till like Sept-Oct. However, post that, as things started to "appear" normal i.e crowds returned back to the roads & public places and everything was opened up, it's almost like the public then forgot about the pandemic. Even though law enforcement had to chase and run behind people to mask up, how much can they do that in a country of 1.4bn? Unless India brings about some China like discipline and law enforcement tactics, which I hope they do, it's a mammoth task to ensure total compliance of such health related rules like masking up.

Whatever is playing out now, is simply the behaviour of the public over the last few months.

The various mutated variants may have fuelled the spread ,but only the public is to blamed.

Well it is the public, and religious beliefs. Far too many people gathering as they always have to further the spread.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2021/04/1 ... eekday.cnn

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacifi ... u-festival

Hundreds of thousands of Hindus gathered to bathe in the Ganges on Wednesday, the third key day of the weeks-long festival, in the Himalayan city Haridwar.

Sanjay Gunjyal, the inspector general of police at the festival, said around 650,000 people had bathed on Wednesday morning.

"People are being fined for not following social distancing in non-crowded ghats (bathing areas), but it is very hard to fine people in the main ghats, which are very crowded," he said.

There was little evidence of social distancing or mask-wearing, according to witnesses.

casinterest wrote:

avier wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Was it behavior (no masks)?
The B.1.617 variant?

This will be an interesting health case study for years to come.

Lightsaber

Is that and that only.

In a country, where people don't follow basic road rules, you expect them to follow mask rules?

Many simply don't understand the science behind this and have their masks on their mouth or chin only, while exposing their nose. And for some, it's to show a sign of strength that nothing can happen to them because they're so healthy and strong, and that masks are for the weak. I see this attitude particularly in certain older males, where they feel it's more manly to not wear a mask.

Post the easing of the national lockdown last year, people were a bit disciplined for a few months, till like Sept-Oct. However, post that, as things started to "appear" normal i.e crowds returned back to the roads & public places and everything was opened up, it's almost like the public then forgot about the pandemic. Even though law enforcement had to chase and run behind people to mask up, how much can they do that in a country of 1.4bn? Unless India brings about some China like discipline and law enforcement tactics, which I hope they do, it's a mammoth task to ensure total compliance of such health related rules like masking up.

Whatever is playing out now, is simply the behaviour of the public over the last few months.

The various mutated variants may have fuelled the spread ,but only the public is to blamed.

Well it is the public, and religious beliefs. Far too many people gathering as they always have to further the spread.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2021/04/1 ... eekday.cnn

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacifi ... u-festival

Hundreds of thousands of Hindus gathered to bathe in the Ganges on Wednesday, the third key day of the weeks-long festival, in the Himalayan city Haridwar.

Sanjay Gunjyal, the inspector general of police at the festival, said around 650,000 people had bathed on Wednesday morning.

"People are being fined for not following social distancing in non-crowded ghats (bathing areas), but it is very hard to fine people in the main ghats, which are very crowded," he said.

There was little evidence of social distancing or mask-wearing, according to witnesses.

Those mass gatherings were impressive.

The "rule following" is what will get them out of this crisis. Even with vaccines, masks help. I get in India social distancing is a challenge. So that leaves 2 of the 3 common solutions.
I am calling out India that there numbers do not reflect the hospital over-run and overall death rate. They must get excess deaths added to their talley for future public health events. This is worse than being reported, but the question is by how much? 20%? 300%? 1000%? 2000% (I really hope not more than that)?

When I see people on the street interviews (on Youtube, BBC), the poor lament they have few options. I am of the opinion the slum dwellers and inland city dwellers are severely undercounted (by a factor of 5X or more, in my opinion).

This is way too interesting.
I'm concerned as local vaccinations have stalled (go to myturn.ca.gov and find a vaccine, its easy now. e.g., select Los Angeles county and zip code 90278 as an example).

Yet only 44.1% at first dose... https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/
Scooby says Rhoo Rhoo.

Hopefully children are added soon (like my children...).

Lightsaber

There is absolutely no evidence Indian government warned public about mass gatherings, religious or political rallies. Evidence shows the opposite, where officials argued these events are safe.

Data shows that Kumbh is not a super spreader": Ashok Kumar, Uttarakhand DGP on #COVID norms being violated during #Mahakumbh2021

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/1 ... 0741882881

Prime Minister of India bragging about political rally size on the day India recorded 200,000 cases. Same with every political party,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5jzuE866lo

lightsaber wrote:

casinterest wrote:

avier wrote:

Is that and that only.

In a country, where people don't follow basic road rules, you expect them to follow mask rules?

Many simply don't understand the science behind this and have their masks on their mouth or chin only, while exposing their nose. And for some, it's to show a sign of strength that nothing can happen to them because they're so healthy and strong, and that masks are for the weak. I see this attitude particularly in certain older males, where they feel it's more manly to not wear a mask.

Post the easing of the national lockdown last year, people were a bit disciplined for a few months, till like Sept-Oct. However, post that, as things started to "appear" normal i.e crowds returned back to the roads & public places and everything was opened up, it's almost like the public then forgot about the pandemic. Even though law enforcement had to chase and run behind people to mask up, how much can they do that in a country of 1.4bn? Unless India brings about some China like discipline and law enforcement tactics, which I hope they do, it's a mammoth task to ensure total compliance of such health related rules like masking up.

Whatever is playing out now, is simply the behaviour of the public over the last few months.

The various mutated variants may have fuelled the spread ,but only the public is to blamed.

Well it is the public, and religious beliefs. Far too many people gathering as they always have to further the spread.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2021/04/1 ... eekday.cnn

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacifi ... u-festival

Hundreds of thousands of Hindus gathered to bathe in the Ganges on Wednesday, the third key day of the weeks-long festival, in the Himalayan city Haridwar.

Sanjay Gunjyal, the inspector general of police at the festival, said around 650,000 people had bathed on Wednesday morning.

"People are being fined for not following social distancing in non-crowded ghats (bathing areas), but it is very hard to fine people in the main ghats, which are very crowded," he said.

There was little evidence of social distancing or mask-wearing, according to witnesses.

Those mass gatherings were impressive.

The "rule following" is what will get them out of this crisis. Even with vaccines, masks help. I get in India social distancing is a challenge. So that leaves 2 of the 3 common solutions.
I am calling out India that there numbers do not reflect the hospital over-run and overall death rate. They must get excess deaths added to their talley for future public health events. This is worse than being reported, but the question is by how much? 20%? 300%? 1000%? 2000% (I really hope not more than that)?

When I see people on the street interviews (on Youtube, BBC), the poor lament they have few options. I am of the opinion the slum dwellers and inland city dwellers are severely undercounted (by a factor of 5X or more, in my opinion).

This is way too interesting.
I'm concerned as local vaccinations have stalled (go to myturn.ca.gov and find a vaccine, its easy now. e.g., select Los Angeles county and zip code 90278 as an example).

Yet only 44.1% at first dose... https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/
Scooby says Rhoo Rhoo.

Hopefully children are added soon (like my children...).

Lightsaber

We need to get everyone vaccinated, or we will be living with lockdowns for years. Especially if the kids keep passing it amongst themselves as we head back to Normal.

A lot of these Anti Vax types are going to get a rude surprise as mask mandates lift and people start mingling more/

If wearing a mask is really difficult(with or without vaccine) here are a few options.
a) Oxygen mask
b) CPAP/BiPAP
c) Intubation with propofol
d) The Cadillac option, Intubation without propofol

casinterest wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

casinterest wrote:

Well it is the public, and religious beliefs. Far too many people gathering as they always have to further the spread.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2021/04/1 ... eekday.cnn

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacifi ... u-festival

Those mass gatherings were impressive.

The "rule following" is what will get them out of this crisis. Even with vaccines, masks help. I get in India social distancing is a challenge. So that leaves 2 of the 3 common solutions.
I am calling out India that there numbers do not reflect the hospital over-run and overall death rate. They must get excess deaths added to their talley for future public health events. This is worse than being reported, but the question is by how much? 20%? 300%? 1000%? 2000% (I really hope not more than that)?

When I see people on the street interviews (on Youtube, BBC), the poor lament they have few options. I am of the opinion the slum dwellers and inland city dwellers are severely undercounted (by a factor of 5X or more, in my opinion).

This is way too interesting.
I'm concerned as local vaccinations have stalled (go to myturn.ca.gov and find a vaccine, its easy now. e.g., select Los Angeles county and zip code 90278 as an example).

Yet only 44.1% at first dose... https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/
Scooby says Rhoo Rhoo.

Hopefully children are added soon (like my children...).

Lightsaber

We need to get everyone vaccinated, or we will be living with lockdowns for years. Especially if the kids keep passing it amongst themselves as we head back to Normal.

A lot of these Anti Vax types are going to get a rude surprise as mask mandates lift and people start mingling more/

Unfortunately, the spike in India shows if we (as a group) become complacent, another wave will go through. For example, for India, the official death toll is not taken seriously anymore. This broadcast is stating deaths are 10X to 50X the official tolls. Without excess deaths recorded, we will never know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFvmRcD03I

If you add India to this chart, they are way too high an overall positivity rate: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/posi ... ?tab=chart

There will be a shock. Which is why I want my kids vaccinated ASAP.
Pfizer did well in kids and has requested formal approval, two weeks ago tomorrow: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... 5-n1263649
Moderna should be close with 12 through 17 year old kids, I hear rumors, but I do not know: https://www.foxnews.com/health/moderna- ... enrollment

Younger kids, it will take time for the studies: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1eF2S1

Pfizer started the pediatric trial March 26th, so months to go: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1eF2S1

I think there will be a shock to the Unvaccinated. A disease with an Ro=3.7 to 4 will have no issue moving through the unvaccinated population quickly and with about half the adult population vaccinated, that will slow the spread, but not in unvaccinated clusters as India is highlighting.

I personally cannot stand wearing masks (fogs the glasses and I over-heat. Not so much a problem when the weather was cold, but now it will be more of an issue). I will wear them to protect others.

The whole point of vaccines is to protect others. I posted in the vaccine thread links on mRNA really slowing transmission: https://www.verywellhealth.com/cdc-stud ... es-5121080

I personally see us following a pattern like India. Several months of low cases. Night clubs, sports, other events open up and then a bad spike. I'll get my older child vaccinated as soon as it is approved. I'll do the same for my younger child, I just think we'll need a few more months.

The USA hospitalization rate is up about 20% from the recent trough. This shows not enough are vaccinated. I didn't find a plot normalized by population, but when France, Poland, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, and Spain are close to the USA total on their own! Rhoo Rhoo I consider the USA is doing poorly in controlling the spread of Covid19 too.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

We will get quite the wake up call in the next wave.

Lightsaber

dtw2hyd wrote:

If wearing a mask is really difficult(with or without vaccine) here are a few options.
a) Oxygen mask
b) CPAP/BiPAP
c) Intubation with propofol
d) The Cadillac option, Intubation without propofol

You forgot e) burial or cremation

All I can say is the footage from India is very dire. If they don’t get a handle on things soon, the toll will be dramatic.

Aaron747 wrote:

All I can say is the footage from India is very dire. If they don’t get a handle on things soon, the toll will be dramatic.

Hospitals are turning away patients.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5X_jF-bi0E

The official deaths versus anecdotal evidence of deaths (crematorium)
Six days of official cases > 300,000 per day.
However, diagnostic systems (per the video) is overloaded. People are waiting for tests.

India is at 5.1 tests per confirmed cases, that means too few tests to catch the number of cases (not surprising):
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Lightsaber

India has very limited test capacity. Telangana a state with 40 Million population has test capacity of 30,000 (20,000 private labs, 10,000 state labs) per day.

When asked why state didn't increase test capacity, answer, not a good long term investment.

Fix: State limits number tests from each collection point everyday, don't even collect all and process the backlog.

Some official on social media claimed India's COVID-19 death rate is lower than Canada's. ROFL.

India got mad on "The Australian" and wrong a long letter, TLDR
https://twitter.com/HCICanberra/status/ ... 7665314827

BTW, Air India is increasing BOM-EWR frequency.

I was about to share these jewels out of India, but a cartoonist compiled all of them.

https://twitter.com/MANJULtoons/status/ ... 00/photo/1

Another one

https://twitter.com/satishacharya/statu ... 33/photo/1

dtw2hyd wrote:

If wearing a mask is really difficult(with or without vaccine) here are a few options.

Lots of headlines the other day about the CDC announcing new outdoor mask guidance. I find that amusing because in my opinion I don't think the vast majority of vaccinated folks were waiting for the CDC's blessing to be able to go outside without a mask on. I'm starting to think they've known for a while that those who are vaccinated have a very low chance of spreading to COVID to others, but they've still been telling everyone to keep wearing masks because otherwise it'd be a free-for-all. Plenty of of un-vaccinated people would simply lie and say they already got their vaccine just so they don't have to wear a mask.

I'm sorry, why hasn't Biden banned *all* travel from India to the United States?

mke717spotter wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

If wearing a mask is really difficult(with or without vaccine) here are a few options.

Lots of headlines the other day about the CDC announcing new outdoor mask guidance. I find that amusing because in my opinion I don't think the vast majority of vaccinated folks were waiting for the CDC's blessing to be able to go outside without a mask on. I'm starting to think they've known for a while that those who are vaccinated have a very low chance of spreading to COVID to others, but they've still been telling everyone to keep wearing masks because otherwise it'd be a free-for-all. Plenty of of un-vaccinated people would simply lie and say they already got their vaccine just so they don't have to wear a mask.

It is the myopic thinking of CDC that no-mask is a lure to reduce vaccine hesitancy. They are in panic mode as vaccination slows down.

Hesitancy rate dropped to 22% from 40+%, and it will drop further, why panic and announce counter intuitive changes.

At this rate, it is only matter of time CDC will be offering all-paid no-mask spring break vacations to those who take vaccine in future.

For most of a year I have not worn a mask when outdoors, except on busy downtownish streets. None of the other runners or walkers did so either. We were on side streets and just kept our distance. At the track where I do sprints just about no one wore masks, again we kept our distance. If it appeared I might offend someone(s) I always had a mask in my pocket, and put it on. It was all definitely not a big deal.

ps - always wore the mask indoors except in my own home, and a few others.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

For most of a year I have not worn a mask when outdoors, except on busy downtownish streets. None of the other runners or walkers did so either. We were on side streets and just kept our distance. At the track where I do sprints just about no one wore masks, again we kept our distance. If it appeared I might offend someone(s) I always had a mask in my pocket, and put it on. It was all definitely not a big deal.

ps - always wore the mask indoors except in my own home, and a few others.

My rule when running is 10 feet (3 meters) and some sunlight between me and the other person. I'm big on vaccines, big on the positive effects of masks.

This article does well into how mask wearing has proven effective since 1910 and shown Ro=(1-mP)^2
where m= mask effectiveness, assumed 50% to 75%, but some studies show 78% to 80% for medical masks. 58%+ for typical household materials.


https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

But social distancing is great measure. 1 meter is the line if demarcation. 3% to 13% transmission (4X more transmission if distance not kept):
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... d-12004622


My sister is a doctor in a coronavirus critical care ward (thankfully, last night, patient count was ZERO for the first time in over a year). (ICU still had patients, but only long term patients in that hospital where all in ICU have been there a month or more). To say the least, certification paperwork and controlled medicine inventories complete!

She hikes all the time and 3 meters and some sunlight is what she advises her city and ... read again, zero new cases. No masks with those guidelines. She also recommends a vaccine. That cuts your transmission 75% plus (I've posted numerous links in vaccine thread, I'll be lazy and call it an opinion).

CDC guidelines is now no mask outdoors at a reasonable distance.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-c ... NewsSearch

Vaccinated people also don’t need to wear a mask during small outdoor gatherings with fully vaccinated family and friends, or at gatherings with a mixture of vaccinated and unvaccinated people, they said.

If you are fully vaccinated (read link on definition) and the other person is fully vaccinated, both are fully safe.

Naturally, unvaccinated must take precautions.

Lightsaber

I don't think masks are useful if you're outside not near anyone, but here in France they have been made mandatory in plenty of places (it's up to mayors, or sometimes the national authority where the virus is out of control). Mandatory means a 135€ fine if you don't wear it, to be clear, it's not a suggestion.

About vaccine hesitancy, I saw on French TV talk about the carrot and stick options, with Virginia giving 100$ to young vaccinated people, companies also considering doing something. An economist suggested 200$ for every vaccinated people, with a 800$ cherry on top if herd immunity is attained !

I must say if I didn't want to do something suggested but not mandatory, I don't see myself changing ideas for 100 bucks.

I think I mentioned it before, but in February of 2020 a study came out that if people reduced their social contact by 75% the epidemic could be stopped. I don't know if that statistic would still be considered correct. We still are above the 75% reduction (plus vaccinated), and for most of the year above 95%. I have told the few vaccine 'hesitants' amongst my relatives I am happy to visit with them but only outside and distanced. We also generally avoid children, but are just now seeing grandchildren.

lightsaber wrote:

Naturally, unvaccinated must take precautions.

Lightsaber

I would say even vaccinated need to take precautions.

Air India US non-stop flights will be back to pre-COVID levels. If you have recent visitor or returnee from India in the sub-division, not knowing how effective Pfizer/Moderna against B1617, your best bet is still mask even if you had two doses.

This is where CDC is extremely short-sighted in saying vaccinated people can travel internationally without masks and return to US without test or quarantine.
Variants doesn't subscribe to selective data philosophy.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 297240.cms

dtw2hyd wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Naturally, unvaccinated must take precautions.

Lightsaber

I would say even vaccinated need to take precautions.

Air India US non-stop flights will be back to pre-COVID levels. If you have recent visitor or returnee from India in the sub-division, not knowing how effective Pfizer/Moderna against B1617, your best bet is still mask even if you had two doses.

This is where CDC is extremely short-sighted in saying vaccinated people can travel internationally without masks and return to US without test or quarantine.
Variants doesn't subscribe to selective data philosophy.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 297240.cms

Restrictions are being put back in place:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-restric ... -outbreak/

However, it's too late again and there are still exceptions for US citizens etc...

Seems ridiculous the US CDC/State Dept. lumped India with Israel in terms of the threat level, and then waited a over a week after India went off a cliff to put these extra restrictions in place.

Whatever's going on in India, the CDC isn't yet too concerned with it in terms of the variant identified there. It isn't on their VOC list.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... -info.html

Effective from Monday any one trying to enter Australia from India is banned, anyone defying the rules could either face a $66,000 fine or 5 years in prison or both.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/corona ... -c-2728723

Interesting CDC doesn't list B.1.167 as VOC

It was first identified in San Francisco on April 5
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news ... -francisco

Michigan has its first case
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 896521001/

Florida removes all remaining COVID restrictions (links to PDF)
https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/wp-con ... .29.21.pdf

KFTG wrote:

Florida removes all remaining COVID restrictions (links to PDF)
https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/wp-con ... .29.21.pdf

Unbelievably dumb. But then this is the FL state government, so...

I feel sorry for any MD or RN dealing with this in the Sunshine state.

Australia has paused direct flights from India and made it illegal for Australians to attempt to return from India.

While the situation is dire, I’m still unclear why we did implement similar when the number of cases arriving in Australia was higher from the US and the UK.

And that should have been “didn’t implement”

Kent350787 wrote:

Australia has paused direct flights from India and made it illegal for Australians to attempt to return from India.

While the situation is dire, I’m still unclear why we did implement similar when the number of cases arriving in Australia was higher from the US and the UK.

Because numbers and test reports from India cannot be trusted.