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Aesma
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Fri May 07, 2021 3:59 am

In 2019 they only held it because there was a Brexit party candidate that spoiled the Tories, otherwise they would have lost it then.
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Boeing74741R
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Fri May 07, 2021 7:40 am

And the "red wall" continues to crumble. Now confirmed the Conservatives have taken Hartlepool from Labour for the first time in the seat's history: -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57019456

It shows the size of the task ahead for Starmer and Labour and proof that they have a long way to go before they're in with a shout of returning to power.

noviorbis77 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
The Conservatives are on course to gain the Hartlepool seat in the by election.

Local elections today. Be interesting to see how they pan out.


I suspect in area's like Hartlepool Tories will win the seat. Tories will say it shows what they are offering is working "we got Brexit done", "we're investing in Britain" bla bla bla, Far Left Labour will blame Starmer. Actual reason is it's a 70% Brexit voting area so no way are they voting for Labour right now. It's going to take some time for areas like this to come back to Labour until Brexit is slap in their face a mistake. I wonder how the local fishermen will vote.


Labour have held Hartlepool for decades.

Now Brexit has been delivered, I am surprised the Conservatives are going to win there.


It could be the first sign that the Tories' support in traditional Labour areas is more substantial than people were giving them credit for. For Labour, it shows that they can't take it for granted these kind of seats will be retained or "come home" now Brexit is done and over with - or at least not quickly. The real test will be at the next GE and whether Labour can win back seats such as Bishop Auckland and Leigh. The latter seat I'm very curious about as I live in a nearby constituency that's been Labour for over a century and was the shock of the night for me back in 2019.

All that said, I've long suspected Labour have taken its heartlands for granted.
 
Virtual737
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Fri May 07, 2021 8:31 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
And the "red wall" continues to crumble. Now confirmed the Conservatives have taken Hartlepool from Labour for the first time in the seat's history


With this in mind do we need to open a thread titled "The end of the leadership of mr. Starmer?" ?
 
Reinhardt
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Fri May 07, 2021 8:32 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
The Conservatives are on course to gain the Hartlepool seat in the by election.

Local elections today. Be interesting to see how they pan out.


I suspect in area's like Hartlepool Tories will win the seat. Tories will say it shows what they are offering is working "we got Brexit done", "we're investing in Britain" bla bla bla, Far Left Labour will blame Starmer. Actual reason is it's a 70% Brexit voting area so no way are they voting for Labour right now. It's going to take some time for areas like this to come back to Labour until Brexit is slap in their face a mistake. I wonder how the local fishermen will vote.


Labour have held Hartlepool for decades.

Now Brexit has been delivered, I am surprised the Conservatives are going to win there.


Brexit voters made up 70% of the electorate in the area. Brexit isn't done in many people's minds and it's still incredibly tribal and devisive.The Brexit party's share of the vote vanished and it went to the Tories. Labour have a pro remain leader (as he should be), so I'm not remotely surpised it went this way. Even if they put up a pro Brexit local MP I doubt they would have won.

Yes Starmer actually needs to start selling Labour and what it can do instead of just opposing the Tories at every turn but you can't undo what happened under Corbyn overnight. Brexit change the political landscape more than anyway admitted or knew imo.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Fri May 07, 2021 5:41 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:

I suspect in area's like Hartlepool Tories will win the seat. Tories will say it shows what they are offering is working "we got Brexit done", "we're investing in Britain" bla bla bla, Far Left Labour will blame Starmer. Actual reason is it's a 70% Brexit voting area so no way are they voting for Labour right now. It's going to take some time for areas like this to come back to Labour until Brexit is slap in their face a mistake. I wonder how the local fishermen will vote.


Labour have held Hartlepool for decades.

Now Brexit has been delivered, I am surprised the Conservatives are going to win there.


Brexit voters made up 70% of the electorate in the area. Brexit isn't done in many people's minds and it's still incredibly tribal and devisive.The Brexit party's share of the vote vanished and it went to the Tories. Labour have a pro remain leader (as he should be), so I'm not remotely surpised it went this way. Even if they put up a pro Brexit local MP I doubt they would have won.

Yes Starmer actually needs to start selling Labour and what it can do instead of just opposing the Tories at every turn but you can't undo what happened under Corbyn overnight. Brexit change the political landscape more than anyway admitted or knew imo.



Not sure where Starmer goes though. Move to the left, he’ll lose support. Move to the right he’ll lose support.
 
art
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Sat May 08, 2021 11:33 pm

I would say that the improved election results for Boris Johnson's party (partly due to the fact that there was no reason to re-elect the Brexit/UKIP representatives) have greatly strengthened his position. Far from his premiership ending, it is more likely to be enduring.
 
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Aesma
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Sun May 09, 2021 1:31 am

The main issue of these elections was if a nationalist majority would emerge in Scotland and ask for a referendum, and that happened, so we'll see how he deals with it.
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Braybuddy
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Sun May 09, 2021 2:42 pm

It just goes to show how important the X-factor is in politics. Once a politican has it, voters don't care about mistakes and minor scandals. The result is a big wake-up call for the British Labour party.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Sun May 09, 2021 7:42 pm

All English Council Results are now in:

Seats for the main parties
CON: 2,341 (+235)
LAB: 1,339 (-322)
LIB: 586 (+8)

https://twitter.com/politicsforali/stat ... 53088?s=21

Good results for Conservatives. A disaster for Labour.
 
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moo
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Sun May 09, 2021 10:12 pm

Aesma wrote:
The main issue of these elections was if a nationalist majority would emerge in Scotland and ask for a referendum, and that happened, so we'll see how he deals with it.


The goal posts move once again - up until these results its been an "SNP majority", which didn't happen. Now its a "nationalist majority", regardless of the fact that that majority doesnt have a mandate to do anything.

Sturgeon demanded, Johnson rejected. It's already happened - there might be a legal battle, but the matter is pretty cut and dried legally here, this isn't a devolved power.

That said, we all know that even if Sturgeon got her new referendum, that there would be a demand for a third one in the offing should she not win...

Personally I've given up caring - get rid of Scotland, let them go and lets stop providing the safety net that the union is for them.
 
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Aesma
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Sun May 09, 2021 10:58 pm

So, are you for or against a referendum ?
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moo
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Sun May 09, 2021 11:19 pm

Aesma wrote:
So, are you for or against a referendum ?


Against. They had one in 2014 and there shouldn't be another one for a generation regardless of the reasons given (literally anything can be taken as a fundamental change in the union "requiring" another referendum otherwise - meaning that they will be held annually until Sturgeon gets her way).

But as to Scottish independence? I've had enough of the SNP and their whining - let them go, good riddance. Independence would have been a disaster for them in 2015, but the SNP tends to ignore that.
 
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 12:23 am

Who?

(That's exactly how important that person is.)
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Aesma
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 12:47 am

moo : I have the exact opposite opinion (as an outsider). I'm against independence, because I don't like countries breaking up, and it gives ideas to others (including in my country). However I think a referendum has to happen in Scotland. I don't think there would be another one quickly after that one.

As an aside, Scottish people are your countrymen, why are you dismissing their "whining" ? Couldn't it be that, maybe, they're not treated right ?
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art
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 12:59 am

moo wrote:
Aesma wrote:
So, are you for or against a referendum ?


Against. They had one in 2014 and there shouldn't be another one for a generation regardless of the reasons given (literally anything can be taken as a fundamental change in the union "requiring" another referendum otherwise - meaning that they will be held annually until Sturgeon gets her way).

But as to Scottish independence? I've had enough of the SNP and their whining - let them go, good riddance. Independence would have been a disaster for them in 2015, but the SNP tends to ignore that.


If there is any value in asking a population what status they want as a political entity (Scotland, Catalonia etc) why should that population only be consulted every twenty years or so?

I favour a referendum to sound out what proportion of the population of Scotland want to leave the UK. I am also mindful that in some states major constitutional changes require more than a simple majority of votes eg 2/3 of representatives in the national assembly have to vote for a constitutional change before it is effected. Perhaps something similar would be a good idea where Scottish independence is concerned.
 
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moo
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 2:15 am

Aesma wrote:
moo : I have the exact opposite opinion (as an outsider). I'm against independence, because I don't like countries breaking up, and it gives ideas to others (including in my country). However I think a referendum has to happen in Scotland. I don't think there would be another one quickly after that one.


If any referendum held while Sturgeon has power comes back negative, there will be an instant push for another one.

A lot of people put a lot of weight on the EU vote as the "reason" why another referendum is "required", but I think people conveniently forget that the push for a second referendum started in 2014 immediately after the one held.

Sturgeon and the SNP won't let the matter rest until they get a vote in their favour - and as much as they like to deride the EU outcome (and Im a remainer - I voted to stay in the EU), Sturgeon would happily take a 51/49 split to take Scotland out of the union.

As an aside, Scottish people are your countrymen, why are you dismissing their "whining" ? Couldn't it be that, maybe, they're not treated right ?


Those pushing for independence are not my countrymen, and they are treated exceptionally well IMHO - from the central budget, Scotland on average gets 20 percentage points more per head of population of funding under the Barnett formula, and they have significantly more devolved powers than any other member of the union, and still its not enough.

People will of course say "but Scotland pays a lot more in because of North Sea revenues", which is what I was referring to in my previous post and something that people conveniently ignore - 2015 saw those revenues to the Treasury go from "significant" to "negative", with no change in the Barnett formula...

art wrote:
If there is any value in asking a population what status they want as a political entity (Scotland, Catalonia etc) why should that population only be consulted every twenty years or so?


*Shrug* ok then, what frequency would suit you? Why not 20 years? Why not 5 years? Why not every year? Why the frequency you are happy with? Unless there is a real, meaningful gap between the referendums then you simply run the risk of one side saying "ffs, I give up" rather than an actual, meaningful outcome that reflects the populations real wishes.

Lets not forget that there wont be any "rejoin the Union" referendums happening afterward, just like Brexit - one side gets the outcome they want and the referendums stop, there wont even be a "once in a generation" promise of a "rejoin the Union" vote, it will be gone.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 7:13 am

moo wrote:
A lot of people put a lot of weight on the EU vote as the "reason" why another referendum is "required", but I think people conveniently forget that the push for a second referendum started in 2014 immediately after the one held.


That might be the case for the SNP. It is undeniable that the 2016 vote changed the situation profoundly. One of the reasons to stay in the UK, was that the UK would stay in the EU and an independent Scotland could not join the EU. That has changed on both counts. The underlying causes for independence are will know: socialism versus conservatism, the power lies in London because of the electoral system etc.

moo wrote:
Those pushing for independence are not my countrymen, and they are treated exceptionally well IMHO.


Why are you saying that they are not your countrymen? They are, till Scotland is independent.
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Aesma
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 9:36 am

I was not following this back then so I didn't realize that the last election for the Scottish parliament were before the Brexit referendum ! So yes the SNP advocated for independence, but back then that wasn't on the cards for voters.

Here that was clearly what the campaign was about, and people voted a bit more for the SNP, as well as for the Greens who are also for independence. 47% of the vote went for pro-referendum parties. That's a lot.

By comparison Cameron made Brexit happen with a 35% "majority".
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Dutchy
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 10:54 am

Aesma wrote:
I was not following this back then so I didn't realize that the last election for the Scottish parliament were before the Brexit referendum ! So yes the SNP advocated for independence, but back then that wasn't on the cards for voters.

Here that was clearly what the campaign was about, and people voted a bit more for the SNP, as well as for the Greens who are also for independence. 47% of the vote went for pro-referendum parties. That's a lot.

By comparison Cameron made Brexit happen with a 35% "majority".


The Scottish independence vote referendum e was in 2014 and the Brexit referendum in 2016. That is what happened between the last vote and the now proposed vote.
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Virtual737
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 11:24 am

moo wrote:
Aesma wrote:
So, are you for or against a referendum ?


Against. They had one in 2014 and there shouldn't be another one for a generation regardless of the reasons given (literally anything can be taken as a fundamental change in the union "requiring" another referendum otherwise - meaning that they will be held annually until Sturgeon gets her way).

But as to Scottish independence? I've had enough of the SNP and their whining - let them go, good riddance. Independence would have been a disaster for them in 2015, but the SNP tends to ignore that.


Music to my ears. The very mention of a referendum on independence is destabilising to the whole Union. It has been a classic case of give them an inch and they will demand a mile since devolution. Don't give them a referendum, just throw them out. At the very least, abolish the Scottish parliament if Sturgeon wants to be such a PITA.

How many times have I heard the claim "the English stole our oil", which ignores the fact that oil wasn't discovered until after Scotland became part of the UK (but only by 250 years or so) and that those revenues cover the UK, of which Scotland is a part. There also seems (I don't have figures to back this, just something I've noticed for decades) to be a disproportionate number of Scottish people in upper management positions in England when comparing the sizes of the population... we can reverse that instantly.

My stepfather is Scottish and he's almost ashamed to be because of all this noise from up north. Rant over, on with your day )
 
ElPistolero
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 2:41 pm

moo wrote:

If any referendum held while Sturgeon has power comes back negative, there will be an instant push for another one.

A lot of people put a lot of weight on the EU vote as the "reason" why another referendum is "required", but I think people conveniently forget that the push for a second referendum started in 2014 immediately after the one held.


At its most basic level, Brexit is constitutional change. There’s no reasonable way of ignoring that. Worth pointing out here that Scotland had no say on it , aside from the majority voting against it by a faily large margin (60%+ IIRC).

Federal states, with their often convoluted constitutional amendment formulas, were designed precisely to address this issue by recognizing state/nation rights and giving them a say on constitutional change.

Of note, there is no federal system that would allow Brexit to proceed (2 nations for/2 nations against = no majority = constitutional change DOA).

The simpler solution here - indeed the better one - might be to adopt a federal system. Of course, that risks giving a combination of 2 smaller nations a veto over England-driven initiatives. Which might not go down well in England.

At which point, you reach this face-off - with Scotland (and/or other nations), resenting the imbalance with England - especially on constitutional issues. Which inevitably brings us here:

moo wrote:
Sturgeon and the SNP won't let the matter rest until they get a vote in their favour - and as much as they like to deride the EU outcome (and Im a remainer - I voted to stay in the EU), Sturgeon would happily take a 51/49 split to take Scotland out of the union. .


Indeed. Because the issue here is about Scotland’s say on constitutional changes that affect it. That will happen again and again and again until nation/state rights are defined clearly, especially given the resurgence of the Scot and English identities.

moo wrote:
Those pushing for independence are not my countrymen, and they are treated exceptionally well IMHO - from the central budget, Scotland on average gets 20 percentage points more per head of population of funding under the Barnett formula, and they have significantly more devolved powers than any other member of the union, and still its not enough.


This is an English misreading of what Scots independence is about. It’s not about money, it’s about perceived inequality in governance because of the lack of state / nation rights on core issues of governance. An Englishman’s vote may not be worth more than a Scotsman’s vote, but England’s vote is worth far more than Scotland’s vote. That is a problem on constitutional issues.

This came to the fore - rather amusingly - over the weekend, with one Daily Telegraph article extolling Johnson’s leadership and virtues for (not in) England, and another - in the same paper - blaming him squarely for SNPs performance. When one is simultaneously good for England, but bad for the union... do the math.

moo wrote:
*Shrug* ok then, what frequency would suit you? Why not 20 years? Why not 5 years? Why not every year? Why the frequency you are happy with? Unless there is a real, meaningful gap between the referendums then you simply run the risk of one side saying "ffs, I give up" rather than an actual, meaningful outcome that reflects the populations real wishes .


Or you could tag it to constitutional change (like Brexit). If you have constitutional change every two years, then every two years. If constitutional change happens only once every 50 years, then 50 years. It’s the fairest, most democratic way.

Point being: the timeframe is irrelevant; it’s the changes to the constitution - the relationship between the nation and the state that matters.

moo wrote:
Lets not forget that there wont be any "rejoin the Union" referendums happening afterward, just like Brexit - one side gets the outcome they want and the referendums stop, there wont even be a "once in a generation" promise of a "rejoin the Union" vote, it will be gone.


Why not? Referendums are a function of the public mood. If there’s public appetite, there will be one. If not, there won’t be. Can’t be definitive about what’s going to happen in the future.

As for this “once in a generation” stuff, unless constitutional change is “once in a generation”, its claptrap; it has no grounding in democratic principles.

In the absence of a federal system to place nation-driven checks and balances on constitutional change, democratic principles dictate that affected nations be allowed to opine on whether or not they want to be part of a constitutional framework after a change has been imposed on them.

And Brexit was precisely that: constitutional change over which the nations had no say.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 3:20 pm

ElPistolero wrote:

And Brexit was precisely that: constitutional change over which the nations had no say.


What you wrote is the absolute key point about the problems with the UK today. It's quite clear since before Brexit (but that was the main driver) that the regions need the ability to have much more of a say in what happens to the whole of the UK. It's a wierd mish mash because the UK isn't federal, doesn't have a written constitution yet you clearly have countries within a country with very strong views of their own and in some cases very nationalistic (over their own area, not the UK as a whole). When you had a Westminster government that did work for the whole of the UK's interests, then that's different but with the Tory party it's become abundantly clear they are not.

I can't identify with what the Tories in England are doing so I have no truck with Scots moving more and more towards wanting nothing to do with it. This coming from a strong believer of the union - I was extremely happy they voted to stay first time around but circumstances change. Two things... super majority, and legally binding. The only way to run any referendum.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 3:48 pm

A Scottish referendum may well not deliver a leave result.

Polls are showing no to independence. Certainly for the last few months.

I do wonder though, if Scotland does want to be independent, will the Scots allow the Shetland Islands and Orkneys to go independent? They do not wish to remain with Scotland
 
noviorbis77
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 4:40 pm

Extending the gulf again

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (+5)
LAB: 34% (-4)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-)
REFUK: 2% (-1)

via @RedfieldWilton, 10 May
Chgs. w/ 03 May

https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 38917?s=21
 
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Dutchy
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 4:44 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
A Scottish referendum may well not deliver a leave result.

Polls are showing no to independence. Certainly for the last few months.

I do wonder though, if Scotland does want to be independent, will the Scots allow the Shetland Islands and Orkneys to go independent? They do not wish to remain with Scotland


It's all about self-control and independence, right? Should resonance well with 35% of the British electorate.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
ElPistolero
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 5:11 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
A Scottish referendum may well not deliver a leave result.

Polls are showing no to independence. Certainly for the last few months.


Not really. They’ve been showing ‘for’ and ‘against’ within a few points of each other in the mid-40% range, albeit with 8-10% undecided. Hard to draw any type of conclusion with that.

But anyway, if they’re going to lose, why not just hold it now and let everybody move on?

noviorbis77 wrote:
I do wonder though, if Scotland does want to be independent, will the Scots allow the Shetland Islands and Orkneys to go independent? They do not wish to remain with Scotland


You’d best hope not. That way lies London (or Liverpool or Manchester or (insert urban center)) independence, what with precedents being set etc.

Scotland has long been recognized as a separate nation in Europe and beyond. Shetland (or London for that matter) - I think not so much?
 
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Re: The end of the premiership of mr. Johnson?

Mon May 10, 2021 5:16 pm

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