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pune
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:11 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
wingman wrote:

And yet none of these people are able to dismiss the idea that the jump happened naturally inside of the lab.


They’re not talking about because statistically the probability is so low it’s now worth talking about it, despite what some sections of the media are now fantasising about. 1-7 million people per year are infected with viruses form animals due natural spillover. Just like how every previous pandemic came from a virus that naturally spilled from animals to humans. The chance that this came from one leak from a lab is therefore 1 in 1-7 million.

Scientists aren’t like crooked police, they aren’t going to decide that China is the culprit then only look for evidence that backs up their theory or obsess about them non stop. They are concentrating on looking in the natural environment in places like caves because it’s the emits likely source.


On the money and that is where they will likely find it. Maybe somebody went cave-diving or whatever. Hopefully, at some future date we do get some idea. We should have ideally found patient 0 but that not happening this is the only way forward :(
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:08 am

pune wrote:
On the money and that is where they will likely find it. Maybe somebody went cave-diving or whatever. Hopefully, at some future date we do get some idea.


SARS 1 took 15 years to fully identify.

Ebola has existed for over 40 years yet the source has yet to be determined.

But some think an “independent” investigation will waltz into Wuhan and find undeniable proof overnight it was a Chinese led conspiracy so that will satisfy their urge to blame China.

Science isn’t done in tabloid papers, it isn’t done with emotion and it isn’t done to match election cycles or news cycles. It is deliberately slow, measured and unbiased to find the truth.
 
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c933103
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:06 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
pune wrote:
On the money and that is where they will likely find it. Maybe somebody went cave-diving or whatever. Hopefully, at some future date we do get some idea.


SARS 1 took 15 years to fully identify.

Ebola has existed for over 40 years yet the source has yet to be determined.

But some think an “independent” investigation will waltz into Wuhan and find undeniable proof overnight it was a Chinese led conspiracy so that will satisfy their urge to blame China.

Science isn’t done in tabloid papers, it isn’t done with emotion and it isn’t done to match election cycles or news cycles. It is deliberately slow, measured and unbiased to find the truth.

Because investigation will take decades and answer might not be recoverable, we should all sit at the ground and not attempt anything?
 
pune
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:08 pm

So who's blocking you, do all the investigation you want but the proof has to be absolute. The problem happens is the innuendo. To take another example, when the Boeing 737 planes went down, the blame was on the pilots, later investigation revealed that it was Boeing itself who slept on the job. The whole thing has still not been investigated and was suppressed. But because it was American, nobody else could ask questions.
 
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c933103
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:22 am

pune wrote:
So who's blocking you, do all the investigation you want but the proof has to be absolute.

Chinese government.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:23 am

c933103 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Because investigation will take decades and answer might not be recoverable, we should all sit at the ground and not attempt anything?


There currently is an attempt to discover the origins of the virus led by the world's top virologists. It will take time, understanding, co-operation and patience from all parties involved, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is considered one of the world's top virology labs.
 
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c933103
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:17 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Because investigation will take decades and answer might not be recoverable, we should all sit at the ground and not attempt anything?


There currently is an attempt to discover the origins of the virus led by the world's top virologists. It will take time, understanding, co-operation and patience from all parties involved, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is considered one of the world's top virology labs.

And you can see Chinese government trying to silence by punishing voices calling for independent investigation
 
WIederling
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:38 pm

Francoflier wrote:
How do you weaponise a virus without it eventually infecting your own population?

One of the defining feature of a weapon is that you can aim it.


Ethnic selectivity. That would be a self seeking weapon.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:10 pm

WIederling wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
How do you weaponise a virus without it eventually infecting your own population?

One of the defining feature of a weapon is that you can aim it.


Ethnic selectivity. That would be a self seeking weapon.


Ethnic selectivity is still part of research, to achieve ethnic selectivity one has to complete their research.

Having a mitigation plan like developing a possible antidote or a vaccine for lab scientists

Whether one agrees or not every country does work on bio-warfare mostly to protect own citizens from possible attacks or for nefarious reasons. We cannot single out China.

But not having a mitigation plan would be a rookie mistake.
 
WIederling
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:07 am

c933103 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Science isn’t done in tabloid papers, it isn’t done with emotion and it isn’t done to match election cycles or news cycles. It is deliberately slow, measured and unbiased to find the truth.

Because investigation will take decades and answer might not be recoverable, we should all sit at the ground and not attempt anything?


so what is your action plan to satisfy your restlessness?

your wish looks llke impulse driven actionism.
 
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c933103
Posts: 6428
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:22 am

WIederling wrote:
c933103 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Science isn’t done in tabloid papers, it isn’t done with emotion and it isn’t done to match election cycles or news cycles. It is deliberately slow, measured and unbiased to find the truth.

Because investigation will take decades and answer might not be recoverable, we should all sit at the ground and not attempt anything?


so what is your action plan to satisfy your restlessness?

your wish looks llke impulse driven actionism.

There are more than a few countries around the world think such efforts would be worthwhile, letting them draft and execute action plans would be a better idea than me coming up anything
 
wingman
Posts: 4299
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Fri Jun 25, 2021 4:37 pm

c933103 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
c933103 wrote:


There currently is an attempt to discover the origins of the virus led by the world's top virologists. It will take time, understanding, co-operation and patience from all parties involved, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is considered one of the world's top virology labs.

And you can see Chinese government trying to silence by punishing voices calling for independent investigation


This piece today from the NYTs suggests that China and even the Wuhan Lab are not cooperating much in any effort to find the truth. I don't understand this kind of science but the piece itself seems very well researched and written.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/opin ... e=Homepage
 
luckyone
Posts: 4321
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: China and biological warfare story

Sun Jun 27, 2021 11:48 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
pune wrote:
On the money and that is where they will likely find it. Maybe somebody went cave-diving or whatever. Hopefully, at some future date we do get some idea.


SARS 1 took 15 years to fully identify.

Ebola has existed for over 40 years yet the source has yet to be determined.

But some think an “independent” investigation will waltz into Wuhan and find undeniable proof overnight it was a Chinese led conspiracy so that will satisfy their urge to blame China.

Science isn’t done in tabloid papers, it isn’t done with emotion and it isn’t done to match election cycles or news cycles. It is deliberately slow, measured and unbiased to find the truth.

Same with HIV. The information available is clear that the HIV virus is a relative of SIV virus and that a mutated SIV—> HIV jumped from primate to human. 50 years after the virus began circulating in appreciable numbers we still have no idea when that jump occurred.

Sometimes I feel like SARS-CoV2 is the conservative’s Bush 9-11 conspiracy. Too good a story to pass up.
 
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c933103
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:17 pm

luckyone wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
pune wrote:
On the money and that is where they will likely find it. Maybe somebody went cave-diving or whatever. Hopefully, at some future date we do get some idea.


SARS 1 took 15 years to fully identify.

Ebola has existed for over 40 years yet the source has yet to be determined.

But some think an “independent” investigation will waltz into Wuhan and find undeniable proof overnight it was a Chinese led conspiracy so that will satisfy their urge to blame China.

Science isn’t done in tabloid papers, it isn’t done with emotion and it isn’t done to match election cycles or news cycles. It is deliberately slow, measured and unbiased to find the truth.

Same with HIV. The information available is clear that the HIV virus is a relative of SIV virus and that a mutated SIV—> HIV jumped from primate to human. 50 years after the virus began circulating in appreciable numbers we still have no idea when that jump occurred.

Sometimes I feel like SARS-CoV2 is the conservative’s Bush 9-11 conspiracy. Too good a story to pass up.

Obviously, origin of virus is a scientific matter, but depends on where exactly they came out, different governments have different reactions, and that goes far beyond simple science. Hence there are why many countries trying to start independent investigation of the virus origin, while China is trying to block that.
 
luckyone
Posts: 4321
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: China and biological warfare story

Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:34 pm

c933103 wrote:
luckyone wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:

SARS 1 took 15 years to fully identify.

Ebola has existed for over 40 years yet the source has yet to be determined.

But some think an “independent” investigation will waltz into Wuhan and find undeniable proof overnight it was a Chinese led conspiracy so that will satisfy their urge to blame China.

Science isn’t done in tabloid papers, it isn’t done with emotion and it isn’t done to match election cycles or news cycles. It is deliberately slow, measured and unbiased to find the truth.

Same with HIV. The information available is clear that the HIV virus is a relative of SIV virus and that a mutated SIV—> HIV jumped from primate to human. 50 years after the virus began circulating in appreciable numbers we still have no idea when that jump occurred.

Sometimes I feel like SARS-CoV2 is the conservative’s Bush 9-11 conspiracy. Too good a story to pass up.

Obviously, origin of virus is a scientific matter, but depends on where exactly they came out, different governments have different reactions, and that goes far beyond simple science. Hence there are why many countries trying to start independent investigation of the virus origin, while China is trying to block that.

The reality is that with or without China’s face saving obstruction (which may have just as much to do with avoiding looking incompetent or weak to their own populace as it does covering up any actual wrong doing, you can’t overlook the cultural component here—how eager do you think a US lab would be to have an accusatory communist country come in and expect them to not be critical no matter what they find…) pinpointing a zoonotic transmission is incredibly difficult to trace, much less actually engineer. It’s a very real possibility that SARS-CoV2 has been lingering in a bat cave for years and jumped to humans quite some time before it exploded into public awareness in late 2019. Thats typically how these things go. HIV, for example, has been confirmed to have its earliest cases in the late 1950s (with retrospectively suspected cases long before that), but it didn’t start transmitting at a large scale until the 1970s and come into public consciousness and be identified until the early 1980s.
 
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c933103
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Mon Jun 28, 2021 5:46 am

luckyone wrote:
c933103 wrote:
luckyone wrote:
Same with HIV. The information available is clear that the HIV virus is a relative of SIV virus and that a mutated SIV—> HIV jumped from primate to human. 50 years after the virus began circulating in appreciable numbers we still have no idea when that jump occurred.

Sometimes I feel like SARS-CoV2 is the conservative’s Bush 9-11 conspiracy. Too good a story to pass up.

Obviously, origin of virus is a scientific matter, but depends on where exactly they came out, different governments have different reactions, and that goes far beyond simple science. Hence there are why many countries trying to start independent investigation of the virus origin, while China is trying to block that.

The reality is that with or without China’s face saving obstruction (which may have just as much to do with avoiding looking incompetent or weak to their own populace as it does covering up any actual wrong doing, you can’t overlook the cultural component here—how eager do you think a US lab would be to have an accusatory communist country come in and expect them to not be critical no matter what they find…) pinpointing a zoonotic transmission is incredibly difficult to trace, much less actually engineer. It’s a very real possibility that SARS-CoV2 has been lingering in a bat cave for years and jumped to humans quite some time before it exploded into public awareness in late 2019. Thats typically how these things go. HIV, for example, has been confirmed to have its earliest cases in the late 1950s (with retrospectively suspected cases long before that), but it didn’t start transmitting at a large scale until the 1970s and come into public consciousness and be identified until the early 1980s.

What you said doesn't contradict what I said
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 876
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: China and biological warfare story

Mon Jun 28, 2021 8:30 am

c933103 wrote:
Obviously, origin of virus is a scientific matter, but depends on where exactly they came out, different governments have different reactions, and that goes far beyond simple science. Hence there are why many countries trying to start independent investigation of the virus origin, while China is trying to block that.


Can you list which countries are rejecting the WHO led investigation and are starting their own investigations?
 
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c933103
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Mon Jun 28, 2021 10:56 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Obviously, origin of virus is a scientific matter, but depends on where exactly they came out, different governments have different reactions, and that goes far beyond simple science. Hence there are why many countries trying to start independent investigation of the virus origin, while China is trying to block that.


Can you list which countries are rejecting the WHO led investigation and are starting their own investigations?

Are you trying to project WHO as independent after spending the entire 2020 copying China's sometimes incorrect information and rejecting Taiwan from participating?
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 876
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: China and biological warfare story

Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:41 pm

c933103 wrote:
Are you trying to project WHO as independent after spending the entire 2020 copying China's sometimes incorrect information and rejecting Taiwan from participating?


Are you ducking my question? The WHO is the major global medical organisation. There is no alternative, even when the orange one temporarily pulled the US out for a few months.

So back to my question, you said "many" nations are starting their own investigations, could you please name them? And provide details?
 
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c933103
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Mon Jun 28, 2021 5:31 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Are you trying to project WHO as independent after spending the entire 2020 copying China's sometimes incorrect information and rejecting Taiwan from participating?


Are you ducking my question? The WHO is the major global medical organisation. There is no alternative, even when the orange one temporarily pulled the US out for a few months.

Only ≠ good
So back to my question, you said "many" nations are starting their own investigations, could you please name them? And provide details?

Calling for starting independent investigation, not national investigation
 
pune
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Re: China and biological warfare story

Mon Jul 05, 2021 6:14 pm

For me, this one gives lot of insight of what happened and didn't happen at Wuhan.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... speaks-out?

What for me clinches is that as she said it is pretty hard to do what is said to be done. And if it could have been done then why didn't U.S. didn't do it, have some sort of virus and take out Iran or any other state because engineering such a virus is really hard. In movies and sci-fi you can have engineered viruses with payload for sometime, say few months to a year and then becomes impotent. While in sci-fi it may look believable and maybe a decade or two it may become a reality.

The easiest way though if you wanted to take out the enemy, you just turn them somehow impotent. After a few years, the current population will die off, no new generation comes. In some ways it is happening in Japan but for many complex reasons where Japanese themselves are not going for more births due to socio-economic factors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtdupS0gRt0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pXSJ35_v2M

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