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airtechy
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US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 3:28 am

Just read an interesting article put out by Brookings well known for their economic reports and other things. They surveyed all the counties in the last election and found that the counties that Trump won represent about 30 percent of the GDP while the ones Biden won are 70 percent of the GDP. A large ratio and growing from their prior year reports. Seems about right because Trump's counties are mostly rural with low economic activity while Biden's are mostly urban with lots of large companies and thus with a must larger share of the GDP. Cities are obviously more expensive to live in than rural areas which means that people need a higher level of education to earn the money to live there. This plays into the fact that polls have shown that a large portion of Trump's support is uneducated white males.

My ex-county in Tennessee is a classic example of this. About ten thousand people and declining population. Kids that have gone to college are moving to the cities leaving behind an ever aging population. It will be interesting to see what it bodes for the country and the political parties if the GDP ratio is continuing to increase.


https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/11/09/biden-voting-counties-equal-70-of-americas-economy-what-does-this-mean-for-the-nations-political-economic-divide/
 
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Aaron747
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 3:38 am

Visual Capitalist has a great infographic they update every couple years showing the GDP strength by metro region. It really illustrates the above point, and which states have relative economic strength.

Image

Just a note that the Census separates the SF/Oakland and San Jose areas - combined the Bay Area would have a 2019 metro GDP of 883B, which is significant considering LA metro's larger figure comes with 10 million more people.

Also the I-95 line from ATL to BOS and east-central Texas represent stunning amounts of economic activity any way you slice it.
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airtechy
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 3:42 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Visual Capitalist has a great infographic they update every couple years showing the GDP strength by metro region. It really illustrates the above point, and which states have relative economic strength.

Image

Just a note that the Census separates the SF/Oakland and San Jose areas - combined the Bay Area would have a 2019 metro GDP of 883B, which is significant considering LA metro's larger figure comes with 10 million more people.

Also the I-95 line from ATL to BOS and east-central Texas represent stunning amounts of economic activity any way you slice it.


Also shows the large activity of Silicon Valley.
 
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c933103
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 3:43 am

If the GDP ratio between cities and rural area continues to increase then it mean wider gap in economy between these different area and it cannot be said as a good sign?
At this point, young people leaving rural area for city is essentially a global phenomenon, be it US, China, Japan, Africa, they're happening everywhere, but ut seems to affect Europe less?
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Aaron747
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 3:54 am

c933103 wrote:
If the GDP ratio between cities and rural area continues to increase then it mean wider gap in economy between these different area and it cannot be said as a good sign?
At this point, young people leaving rural area for city is essentially a global phenomenon, be it US, China, Japan, Africa, they're happening everywhere, but ut seems to affect Europe less?


Depends on where in Europe...this trend already happened in some places there. Metro Barcelona grew from 3.5 million in 1970 to 4.5 million by the late 1980s and is 5.6 million now.

Solving the gap in the US is very difficult - tax incentives offered by rural counties can often bring employers, but this starves those areas of revenues as employment rebound sets in. Even with incentives, it is pretty difficult to get banks to invest in areas where demographic flight is occurring.
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airtechy
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 4:10 am

I can't seem to find it now .. maybe a blog post .. that showed the number of workers supporting retires. In Japan it is almost one to one and we are headed that way That will have major implications for the US economy. Historically, this ratio creep has been stalled by immigration of younger working people which certain components of the present US population is complaining about because they see it as moving them further into the minority. The truth .. according to this article .. is they are loosing ground because they aren't making enough babies .. a trend happening since the era of the burst of war babies (Me for one!)

My grandmother had eight kids .. 3 males and 5 females. The three males never married. Two females married but had no kids. My mom had only me. The two females had two kids each who in turn had two each. So at my level, we have five kiddos starting with eight people. If you add hubbies it's worse. Just one example but easy to see how white people are loosing ground. When the latest census numbers are fleshed out it will probably be worse.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 4:17 am

airtechy wrote:
I can't seem to find it now .. maybe a blog post .. that showed the number of workers supporting retires. In Japan it is almost one to one and we are headed that way That will have major implications for the US economy. Historically, this ratio creep has been stalled by immigration of younger working people which certain components of the present US population is complaining about because they see it as moving them further into the minority. The truth .. according to this article .. is they are loosing ground because they aren't making enough babies .. a trend happening since the era of the burst of war babies (Me for one!)

My grandmother had eight kids .. 3 males and 5 females. The three males never married. Two females married but had no kids. My mom had only me. The two females had two kids each who in turn had two each. So at my level, we have five kiddos starting with eight people. If you add hubbies it's worse. Just one example but easy to see how white people are loosing ground. When the latest census numbers are fleshed out it will probably be worse.


The other thing the cultural warriors often seem to forget is the economy doesn't care who is producing, as long as it's someone. Smaller family units became more common as the middle class expanded in the 1960s. As COL started to increase dramatically in the late 1970s, it took off further. By the time I was a kid in the 80s, hearing that schoolmates had more than two siblings was surprising and unusual.

Japan is a great test case in what will eventually befall developed countries if they don't keep immigration levels up - a massive number of retirees who are living far beyond government life expectancy projections. Couple that with offshoring of jobs due to overseas competition, and you really have a potential mess, as they are grappling with now.
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Tiredofhumanity
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 5:03 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Visual Capitalist has a great infographic they update every couple years showing the GDP strength by metro region. It really illustrates the above point, and which states have relative economic strength.

Image

Just a note that the Census separates the SF/Oakland and San Jose areas - combined the Bay Area would have a 2019 metro GDP of 883B, which is significant considering LA metro's larger figure comes with 10 million more people.

Also the I-95 line from ATL to BOS and east-central Texas represent stunning amounts of economic activity any way you slice it.



Regarding BOS - if you take a look at the 2/3 most populated counties in ME and NH, you'll find that they are the most economically diverse and prosperous compared to the rest of their states and practically provide the foundation to their tax bases.

Guess who those counties voted for? :scratchchin:

Same here in WA.
 
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Aesma
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 6:34 am

The question should be : what did Trump do to level these places up ? And will Biden do anything ?

Propping up dying, polluting industries is obviously not the way to go : because they're dying, and because it sends a strong message to "metropolitan elites", don't go there it's a polluted wasteland.

Do these places have fiber broadband or is there a plan to install fiber ? People with manual skills and no diploma should be able to be trained to work in renewable energies and related : wind turbines, solar plants, installing solar to homes, insulating homes, etc.
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c933103
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 6:42 am

Aesma wrote:
The question should be : what did Trump do to level these places up ? And will Biden do anything ?

Propping up dying, polluting industries is obviously not the way to go : because they're dying, and because it sends a strong message to "metropolitan elites", don't go there it's a polluted wasteland.

Do these places have fiber broadband or is there a plan to install fiber ? People with manual skills and no diploma should be able to be trained to work in renewable energies and related : wind turbines, solar plants, installing solar to homes, insulating homes, etc.

Problem is even if you train the people into adopting new industries like renewables, it's still unlikely those industry would nove into those local area and become industry there
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Dutchy
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 8:54 am

airtechy wrote:
They surveyed all the counties in the last election and found that the counties that Trump won represent about 30 percent of the GDP while the ones Biden won are 70 percent of the GDP


We know that a large portion of the electorate vote against their own interests. This makes it painfully clear.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 1:54 pm

Only slightly off topic. One academic wrote on this, and suggested the solution was the planned developing of more super cities throughout flyover country. I was disappointed that Amazon went looking for a 2nd headquarters and landed with two chosen, Washington DC area and NYC. I was rooting for Pittsburg, Santa Fe, Denver, as places with airline/education and places millennials might like to move to. Tesla looked for a site for a mega factory, they wanted a central US place with good RR and other manufacturing infrastructure. I was thinking Tulsa or Kansas, they chose Austin, already approaching super city status. Oddly, Tesla put a mega battery factory in the middle of 'nowhere' in Nevada, and so far as I have heard it is successful.

Super cities are expensive places to live and work. Here in Seattle we can't keep our bridges up and the homeless down. And how are our kids going to afford a house. UW has changed to an expensive place to attend and hard to get into. Most of us older folks remember our city as a super blue collar town. Its gone. And there is a lot to miss, but about no one wants to go back. A now departed columnist comically built his reputation with a drumbeat of 'lesser Seattle'. You can still go to the Oyster Bar he started in the Pike Place Market.
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Aaron747
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 2:12 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Only slightly off topic. One academic wrote on this, and suggested the solution was the planned developing of more super cities throughout flyover country. I was disappointed that Amazon went looking for a 2nd headquarters and landed with two chosen, Washington DC area and NYC. I was rooting for Pittsburg, Santa Fe, Denver, as places with airline/education and places millennials might like to move to. Tesla looked for a site for a mega factory, they wanted a central US place with good RR and other manufacturing infrastructure. I was thinking Tulsa or Kansas, they chose Austin, already approaching super city status. Oddly, Tesla put a mega battery factory in the middle of 'nowhere' in Nevada, and so far as I have heard it is successful.

Super cities are expensive places to live and work. Here in Seattle we can't keep our bridges up and the homeless down. And how are our kids going to afford a house. UW has changed to an expensive place to attend and hard to get into. Most of us older folks remember our city as a super blue collar town. Its gone. And there is a lot to miss, but about no one wants to go back. A now departed columnist comically built his reputation with a drumbeat of 'lesser Seattle'. You can still go to the Oyster Bar he started in the Pike Place Market.


That’s the same story everywhere. The mom n’ pop places we remember growing up in the SF Bay Area are now mostly gone - Fry’s Electronics, Western Appliance, Foster’s Freeze etc. If you get out of college and rent in SF, your landlord will be a property management firm or a Chinese investor’s rep, no more Glenn down the street, like I had. I used to lunch at Greek and Nepali places that were $7 for all you can eat, now anything ethnic except noodle houses will run you $20 minimum.

At the end of the day though I feel this has less to do with cities themselves than the coterie of investment trends squeezing the middle class and Main Street capitalism.
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luckyone
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 2:45 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Only slightly off topic. One academic wrote on this, and suggested the solution was the planned developing of more super cities throughout flyover country. I was disappointed that Amazon went looking for a 2nd headquarters and landed with two chosen, Washington DC area and NYC. I was rooting for Pittsburg, Santa Fe, Denver, as places with airline/education and places millennials might like to move to. Tesla looked for a site for a mega factory, they wanted a central US place with good RR and other manufacturing infrastructure. I was thinking Tulsa or Kansas, they chose Austin, already approaching super city status. Oddly, Tesla put a mega battery factory in the middle of 'nowhere' in Nevada, and so far as I have heard it is successful.

Super cities are expensive places to live and work. Here in Seattle we can't keep our bridges up and the homeless down. And how are our kids going to afford a house. UW has changed to an expensive place to attend and hard to get into. Most of us older folks remember our city as a super blue collar town. Its gone. And there is a lot to miss, but about no one wants to go back. A now departed columnist comically built his reputation with a drumbeat of 'lesser Seattle'. You can still go to the Oyster Bar he started in the Pike Place Market.

I'm not sure I'd agree with Austin being a super city status. It's a bit of an outlier in that regard as there's quite a bit of undeveloped space around it, which is where Tesla put their facility. Austin is expensive because its growth is outpacing construction, but there are plenty of places to build. This differs from places like the Bay Area, NYC, Seattle, Boston, etc which are expensive not only because people have been moving there, but because they've pretty much been built out. I just spent about two years in Seattle before heading back to the Midwest for work reasons. Living there was a very interesting experience, as you pointed out you have an historically working class town (forestry, fishing, shipping etc) that now all of a sudden is a tech boomtown. As you well know, development in the Puget Sound is butting up to the foothills of the Cascades at this point, a situation aggravated by zoning laws (have fun Bellevue). Throw in aging hippies screaming "get off my weird village lawn!" and it was a bit of a headtrip to watch. Though more intense, it reminded me of my youth in Atlanta in the 90's when Atlanta natives would always complain about how nobody was from Atlanta anymore. I agree that it would be nice to see that growth diffuse into secondary cities, because they can be wonderful places to live.
 
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seb146
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 3:26 pm

Aesma wrote:
The question should be : what did Trump do to level these places up ? And will Biden do anything ?

Propping up dying, polluting industries is obviously not the way to go : because they're dying, and because it sends a strong message to "metropolitan elites", don't go there it's a polluted wasteland.

Do these places have fiber broadband or is there a plan to install fiber ? People with manual skills and no diploma should be able to be trained to work in renewable energies and related : wind turbines, solar plants, installing solar to homes, insulating homes, etc.


For many rural areas, it is chicken-or-egg scenario. There is not much there so why would businesses go there but these rural areas want jobs and people but don't want to build infrastructure because it is a waste of money they don't have in the short term. If they are lucky, some of these rural towns at least have a community college or are on a freeway or major rail line. Many of these rural community do not have either.

There are many factors in this.
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casinterest
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 3:29 pm

Secondary cities are growing. Cities such as Raleigh and Greensboro are growing in the south, along with big suburbs around DC, Richmond, Greenville, SC and other places. Infrastructure and education bring jobs and careers.

The old one trick manufacturing towns have suffered and will continue to suffer. Much or the anger and hate that allowed them to vote for liars such as Donald Trump , also keeps economic development from arriving. The skills , technical educationally, , and people oriented just don't exist as needed in these places anymore. Sure , here and there there are some agriculture/mining/fishing oriented areas, but unless there is infrastructure for education and entertainment, many pick up and leave for the larger towns where they can utilize their sills the best. Here on the east coast, you slowly see the destruction of the rural lifestyles, and the adoption of urban life. The retirees like to push off for beach/mountain homes at various times of the year, but they all like living in the Raleigh area where the kids are, or the access to flights is getting better.

Some small towns will grow into something bigger, that is just known as time goes on, but with restrictive laws and needed infrastructure, the cities will continue to grow. The 70%-30% divide will get larger and larger. North Carolina and Georgia may become more blue than red or purple over the next decade, along with Texas rapidly approaching that point.
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luckyone
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 3:37 pm

casinterest wrote:
Secondary cities are growing. Cities such as Raleigh and Greensboro are growing in the south, along with big suburbs around DC, Richmond, Greenville, SC and other places. Infrastructure and education bring jobs and careers.

The old one trick manufacturing towns have suffered and will continue to suffer. Much or the anger and hate that allowed them to vote for liars such as Donald Trump , also keeps economic development from arriving. The skills , technical educationally, , and people oriented just don't exist as needed in these places anymore. Sure , here and there there are some agriculture/mining/fishing oriented areas, but unless there is infrastructure for education and entertainment, many pick up and leave for the larger towns where they can utilize their sills the best. Here on the east coast, you slowly see the destruction of the rural lifestyles, and the adoption of urban life. The retirees like to push off for beach/mountain homes at various times of the year, but they all like living in the Raleigh area where the kids are, or the access to flights is getting better.

Some small towns will grow into something bigger, that is just known as time goes on, but with restrictive laws and needed infrastructure, the cities will continue to grow. The 70%-30% divide will get larger and larger. North Carolina and Georgia may become more blue than red or purple over the next decade, along with Texas rapidly approaching that point.

I would argue it's not just infrastructure. It's the combo infrastructure and cheap, undeveloped land. Developers love building over farmland because there's nothing for them to remediate. Hard to say that in say, Youngstown, OH or coal towns in West Virginia. The house I grew up was almost the edge of development at the time my parents bought it. I watched the areas north of us slowly be developed from family farms into tract housing. Now, I can still picture that horse farm two miles from the house I grew up in. Even if it's been gone since 1999.

For a while there we saw a trend of development of city neighborhoods due to the fact that economic and demographic shifts that culminated in the 1980s made those properties absurdly cheap. Now that they've been redeveloped, they're not so cheap.
 
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casinterest
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 3:46 pm

luckyone wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Secondary cities are growing. Cities such as Raleigh and Greensboro are growing in the south, along with big suburbs around DC, Richmond, Greenville, SC and other places. Infrastructure and education bring jobs and careers.

The old one trick manufacturing towns have suffered and will continue to suffer. Much or the anger and hate that allowed them to vote for liars such as Donald Trump , also keeps economic development from arriving. The skills , technical educationally, , and people oriented just don't exist as needed in these places anymore. Sure , here and there there are some agriculture/mining/fishing oriented areas, but unless there is infrastructure for education and entertainment, many pick up and leave for the larger towns where they can utilize their sills the best. Here on the east coast, you slowly see the destruction of the rural lifestyles, and the adoption of urban life. The retirees like to push off for beach/mountain homes at various times of the year, but they all like living in the Raleigh area where the kids are, or the access to flights is getting better.

Some small towns will grow into something bigger, that is just known as time goes on, but with restrictive laws and needed infrastructure, the cities will continue to grow. The 70%-30% divide will get larger and larger. North Carolina and Georgia may become more blue than red or purple over the next decade, along with Texas rapidly approaching that point.

I would argue it's not just infrastructure. It's the combo infrastructure and cheap, undeveloped land. Developers love building over farmland because there's nothing for them to remediate. Hard to say that in say, Youngstown, OH or coal towns in West Virginia. The house I grew up was almost the edge of development at the time my parents bought it. I watched the areas north of us slowly be developed from family farms into tract housing. Now, I can still picture that horse farm two miles from the house I grew up in. Even if it's been gone since 1999.



Cheap land always helps, but the Plains states are full of that .

Infrastructure is the biggest driver. Small towns can grow, but that growth can take time and commitment.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 5:02 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Only slightly off topic. One academic wrote on this, and suggested the solution was the planned developing of more super cities throughout flyover country. I was disappointed that Amazon went looking for a 2nd headquarters and landed with two chosen, Washington DC area and NYC. I was rooting for Pittsburg, Santa Fe, Denver, as places with airline/education and places millennials might like to move to. Tesla looked for a site for a mega factory, they wanted a central US place with good RR and other manufacturing infrastructure. I was thinking Tulsa or Kansas, they chose Austin, already approaching super city status. Oddly, Tesla put a mega battery factory in the middle of 'nowhere' in Nevada, and so far as I have heard it is successful.

Super cities are expensive places to live and work. Here in Seattle we can't keep our bridges up and the homeless down. And how are our kids going to afford a house. UW has changed to an expensive place to attend and hard to get into. Most of us older folks remember our city as a super blue collar town. Its gone. And there is a lot to miss, but about no one wants to go back. A now departed columnist comically built his reputation with a drumbeat of 'lesser Seattle'. You can still go to the Oyster Bar he started in the Pike Place Market.



Austin is approaching super city status? Austin, Texas? When I think super city, I think Tokyo, London, New York and so on.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 8:53 pm

Well, keep your eyes on Austin. It is not there yet but as I report on track. It has the major U of Texas University, and headquarters for much of Texas higher education is there. Don't sell Texas short.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: US counties split 70 to 30 GDP in last election

Sun May 16, 2021 11:32 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Well, keep your eyes on Austin. It is not there yet but as I report on track. It has the major U of Texas University, and headquarters for much of Texas higher education is there. Don't sell Texas short.


All those Aggies would like to have a word with you. (I am a UT Austin alumni myself 8-) )

Austin is growing quick, yes, but it is still only 1/3 the size of its Texas compatriot (DFW and Houston...counting metro population). And not everything is 100% dandy even in Texas, either. Go to (deep red) East Texas (or worse, most of the panhandle outside of Amarillo and Lubbock) and you see the same rural population flight. Smaller metro areas like Beaumont and Corpus Christi aren't exactly booming, either.

Then you look at the political map, not surprisingly, all the fastest growing places in Texas are either blue, or turning increasingly blue. Even Collin County is now only ~53-47 in favor of Republicans, a far cry from 65-35 just 10-20 years ago. My parents' county, Fort Bend (SW Suburban Houston), is now trending blue (went to Biden nationally but also still voting for Abbott for governor) as it continues to grow.

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