I'm looking - in a fairly non-committal way - at new EVs now available and coming down the tracks and they're still (in Ireland) quite expensive and it occurred to me that you can make a parallel between the current batch of EVs the early versions of home computers. I'm old enough to remember the Vic-20 and Commodore 64 and then, the early versions of HP. and other manufacturers' products (I remember Wang) and I was wondering whether you could make a parallel between the EVs we now have and where we are at in PC developments.

I think that the early Prius and Nissan Leaf (maybe there are others) versions are the parallel of the Commodore 64 and are now superseded. There is a new batch of EVs now available and most manufacturers have them; the prices are still quite high, even for the likes of a VW ID3. My big concern is that I don't to spend (say) €40k/US$45k on an EV now or in early 2022, only for 2024 to see a much better car for €30-35k. On top of that, you also have the risk that an early version of an older, superseded model would have a lower trade-in value, so you could end up being stuck with something outdated.

So, where are we at?

I know that Ford is bringing out a new Mustang Mach-E (still waiting - and overdue), Tesla has its Model Y, Nissan has the Ariya (which looks quite impressive) and various other companies are bringing out different versions of their existing cars and developing new ones.

When would you say is the right time to go into the EV market? What is worth waiting for?

kaitak wrote:

I'm looking - in a fairly non-committal way - at new EVs now available and coming down the tracks and they're still (in Ireland) quite expensive and it occurred to me that you can make a parallel between the current batch of EVs the early versions of home computers. I'm old enough to remember the Vic-20 and Commodore 64 and then, the early versions of HP. and other manufacturers' products (I remember Wang) and I was wondering whether you could make a parallel between the EVs we now have and where we are at in PC developments.

I think that the early Prius and Nissan Leaf (maybe there are others) versions are the parallel of the Commodore 64 and are now superseded. There is a new batch of EVs now available and most manufacturers have them; the prices are still quite high, even for the likes of a VW ID3. My big concern is that I don't to spend (say) €40k/US$45k on an EV now or in early 2022, only for 2024 to see a much better car for €30-35k. On top of that, you also have the risk that an early version of an older, superseded model would have a lower trade-in value, so you could end up being stuck with something outdated.

So, where are we at?

I know that Ford is bringing out a new Mustang Mach-E (still waiting - and overdue), Tesla has its Model Y, Nissan has the Ariya (which looks quite impressive) and various other companies are bringing out different versions of their existing cars and developing new ones.

When would you say is the right time to go into the EV market? What is worth waiting for?

Tandy?

Computer(chip) development generally followed Moore's law.

No sign of battery technology following similar pattern. EV is a 1830 idea rekindled time and again.

There is enough momentum now because of hyper active social media campaigns, and a touch of improvements in technology.

The mark up is way high for fully assembled right now. I think EVs will be much more affordable when sold as kits.

EV compete with ICE cars whereas computers competed with what, pen and paper ? Electric typewriter ? There is no comparison really.

Where the comparison makes more sense is that indeed there are rapid improvements making older cars obsolete. That's why I would personally only consider Teslas at this point : they're ahead, and they provide upgrades to their cars.

In the end I would only buy one if I can afford to not regret it because its value has dropped, and if it meets my needs of course.

In France I could get a TM3 SR+ for 34000€ thanks to a 7000€ government incentive, and another 2500€ in exchange for a clunker. I think at that price it's quite good, the problem is that I would mostly need it for long trips, and electric isn't ideal for that yet, even if it can be done. If I could get the LR I wouldn't hesitate.

Aesma wrote:

That's why I would personally only consider Teslas at this point : they're ahead, and they provide upgrades to their cars.

From what I've read, the Polestar 2 is getting up there too. With some reviewers preferring it to the Tesla.

Probably beyond the Commodore 64 and before the 1st Mac

Or the Spectrum Sinclair with dual cassette drive

I would say we are actually at the original IMAC stage
They perform well for now. We got rid of something we were all accustomed too( Gas), and have moved into something new(electricity) The battery interface isn't all it could be, but it is something new(mutch like the old CDrom drive the original imac had.

We need more advancements in battery distribution and technology, but for now, the electric(especially the tesla model 3) is a reasonable goto commuter car.

In my opinion this is very much like mobile telephones; the phone you buy today will be outclassed by the next generation coming in less than 12 months time. I appreciate EV development is a bit slower, but the principle still holds. A lot of the people buying (or leasing) an EV wants the latest and greatest, much like the people who buy the latest and greatest mobile phone. Once the next latest and greatest comes along, they'll discard the old one and buy the new one. That means risidual values for EV is a very volatile thing indeed, and buying one does place you at considerable risk of incurring massive losses due to the depreciation.

For that, and quite a few other, reasons I'm not seriously looking at an EV at this point in time. Give it 5 to 10 years for the industry to mature and reach a level, where an EV is perfectly capable of replacing an ICE - even on transcontinental jaunts from Scandinavia to the Alps for a spot of skiing without wasting hours recharging the thing every 2 or 3 hours.

ER757 wrote:

Probably beyond the Commodore 64 and before the 1st Mac

I concur. So what will be the Amiga?

Battery production/recycling will be the big step.

I hope for better battery tech, but we aren't there.

I'm planning a series of 1750 mile (2800km) trips this summer. In no way could an electric vehicle work, not when you consider it has a 500 mile (800km) segment in a day! Even if the hotel had charging, that is pushing the limit of battery tech.

So more is needed. I don't mind an hour charge during a meal if it gives 250+ mile (400+ km) range.

This isn't a new field. The electric must substitute. I hope one day. For myself, I couldn't drive too many needed drives with the limitations.

I'm with others. Soon (a few years), but not yet.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

ER757 wrote:

Probably beyond the Commodore 64 and before the 1st Mac

I concur. So what will be the Amiga?

Battery production/recycling will be the big step.

I hope for better battery tech, but we aren't there.

I'm planning a series of 1750 mile (2800km) trips this summer. In no way could an electric vehicle work, not when you consider it has a 500 mile (800km) segment in a day! Even if the hotel had charging, that is pushing the limit of battery tech.

So more is needed. I don't mind an hour charge during a meal if it gives 250+ mile (400+ km) range.

This isn't a new field. The electric must substitute. I hope one day. For myself, I couldn't drive too many needed drives with the limitations.

I'm with others. Soon (a few years), but not yet.

Lightsaber

It's almost all about the battery., Electric motors are a very mature technology and more reliable than an ICE. I'm sure there could be improvement with electric motors, but I don't see that as being a major issue at all. EVs are already loaded with technology and I am sure the manufactures could upgrade the software of the vehicles pretty easy. Tesla lifted the restrictions placed on battery drain during a hurricane evacuation in Florida several years ago (I think it was Matthew, but I could be wrong) allowing for the owners to drive further on the same charge. I think the restriction is there to keep the battery from degrading too fast. If I recall correctly, it was done wirelessly through WIFI and cellular networks. The point of that is the manufactures have a pretty robust hardware/software package in place.

Another thing to consider with the batteries is the infrastructure to handle a large new load on the electric grid. The US grid is in horrible shape and as we decommission coal plants we are losing generation capacity. The grid desperately needs upgrading and modernizing.

Probably that one that sang Daisy in 1959.

The IBM one.

B777LRF wrote:

In my opinion this is very much like mobile telephones;

Which not so different from cars if you look at it. Cars have incremental improvements and then major redesign cycles.

In the end an electric car is a just car with a different engine type. A lot of the stuff you interact with as a driver or passenger will be the same regardless of powertrain.

what I noticed with tech is, typically the quality goes up every year and the price goes down every year. Televisions for example. Phones, computers, light bulbs.

The biggest myth out there is you need to spend a lot of money to get good technology. the Hyundai Elantra has probably the best technology in gasoline automobiles today. It is a cheap car, and also has the best technology. Mature electronics dont cost anything.

Electric cars are not yet mature. When they are mature, they will cost under US $20k (2021 dollars) and be higher quality than the Tesla Model S. Enough money is being thrown at this that the technology is moving. Many automakers have their 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 electric cars out. Wait until 5.0.

As compared to personal computers, likely we are in the early to mid-2000. About then, high speed internet became common, but higher speeds were to come. A mid-range computer still cost then much more than today and the difference in chip speeds, HD size is multiples of them. Costs and range are still issues with pure EV's.

I’d say today’s most capable EVs are the equivalent to the old Apple Lisa. A breakthrough at the time, with serious advancements in technology and capability ahead each year. In 30 years’ time, I’d imagine ICE engine vehicles will be used mainly for construction and other specialized commercial purposes while EVs will be the rule everywhere else.

LCDFlight wrote:

what I noticed with tech is, typically the quality goes up every year and the price goes down every year. Televisions for example. Phones, computers, light bulbs.

The biggest myth out there is you need to spend a lot of money to get good technology. the Hyundai Elantra has probably the best technology in gasoline automobiles today. It is a cheap car, and also has the best technology. Mature electronics dont cost anything.

Electric cars are not yet mature. When they are mature, they will cost under US $20k (2021 dollars) and be higher quality than the Tesla Model S. Enough money is being thrown at this that the technology is moving. Many automakers have their 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 electric cars out. Wait until 5.0.

Good summation. Waiting till mature models is precisely what I'm doing. The key is to have the range and battery reliability to be able to tackle long trips.

US Videotel all-in-one system

EVs today are at about Apple M1 processor.
Clearly ahead of fossils.
There is really just 2 drawbacks at this point:

-Price hasn’t come down enough in markets without tax- or other incentives.

-Most markets haven’t got the proper infrastructure with chargers rolled out yet.

But the cars themselves are vastly superior to fossils at this point, and the way they have come in the last 10 years is just insane. Ioniq 5, KIA EV6, Model 3 and Y, the new model S, the mercedeses and Audis and Polestars, the EQ4, the Enyiak, the Taycan, the Mustang the etc etc etc the list of GREAT new cars is getting really, really long.

LCDFlight wrote:

Many automakers have their 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 electric cars out. Wait until 5.0.

If you wait that long then the planet suffers as does your wallet - costs of ownership on EV's are already lower than tat for ICE.

I own a Model 3 LR, best car have ever had by a long shot..... no going back to ICE for me.

Richard28 wrote:

LCDFlight wrote:

Many automakers have their 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 electric cars out. Wait until 5.0.

If you wait that long then the planet suffers as does your wallet - costs of ownership on EV's are already lower than tat for ICE.

I own a Model 3 LR, best car have ever had by a long shot..... no going back to ICE for me.

I ran the math last time we bought a car for the wife.

The premium for an electric car was over 15K euro over a similar gas car.

That pays for gas for the entire time we usually own a car, and still doesn't account for behavioral change to make it work.

My next car will probably have a plug in it, but it's more likely going to be a PHEV and then again mostly subsidy driven rather than just by the numbers.

Knowing a little bit about battery technology, no miracles, seismic shifts around the corner, unfortunately.

34k miles on my Tesla 3 and the instant torque still puts a smile on my face every time I floor it.

Should people have never bought a car in the 60s for fear that one day carburetors would be obsolete?

Should we all pass on the iPhone 11 because someday there will be an iPhone 12?

Richard28 wrote:

LCDFlight wrote:

Many automakers have their 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 electric cars out. Wait until 5.0.

If you wait that long then the planet suffers as does your wallet - costs of ownership on EV's are already lower than tat for ICE.

I own a Model 3 LR, best car have ever had by a long shot..... no going back to ICE for me.

EV costs are only lower than ICE cars in certain, mostly academic circumstances. Like a consistent 150 to 200 mile round trip commute, daily over 10 years. EV doesn’t really work for an Uber driver.

As written above, there is a long environmental deficit where the cost and environmental damage of the EV manufacture must be repaid over years of heavy use, before it becomes beneficial versus gas.

And they don’t work for me because I don’t commute by car. The miles I do are irregular. It would harm the environment if I bought a chemical battery car that would mostly sit in the garage. Gasoline can sit for 6 months no problem. Gasoline is still ideal for my needs. I may buy an electric car in 10 years. Or maybe I will buy a Porsche 928 from the 1980s.

Even in the worst case scenarios(fossil made electricity) the slightly higher environmental cost of EV production is offset by an average driver in less than 2 years.

Also, EVs not working for Über-drivers? I remember to tell that to my next EV Über-driver.

The lack of knowledge of EVs combined with being totally convinced of knowing everything and dissmissing it outright, not listening to those of us that actually know what we are talking about is rearing it’s ugly head in yet another EV-thread. Unbeliveable.

LCDFlight wrote:

Richard28 wrote:

LCDFlight wrote:

Many automakers have their 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 electric cars out. Wait until 5.0.

If you wait that long then the planet suffers as does your wallet - costs of ownership on EV's are already lower than tat for ICE.

I own a Model 3 LR, best car have ever had by a long shot..... no going back to ICE for me.

EV costs are only lower than ICE cars in certain, mostly academic circumstances. Like a consistent 150 to 200 mile round trip commute, daily over 10 years. EV doesn’t really work for an Uber driver.

As written above, there is a long environmental deficit where the cost and environmental damage of the EV manufacture must be repaid over years of heavy use, before it becomes beneficial versus gas.

And they don’t work for me because I don’t commute by car. The miles I do are irregular. It would harm the environment if I bought a chemical battery car that would mostly sit in the garage. Gasoline can sit for 6 months no problem. Gasoline is still ideal for my needs. I may buy an electric car in 10 years. Or maybe I will buy a Porsche 928 from the 1980s.