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Max Q
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How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:51 am

It seems inevitable that China will attempt to invade Taiwan at some point. Hong Kong is ‘back in the fold’
and they’re already disregarding many of the agreements made with the UK before the 1997 handover, the Chinese government simply doesn’t care


They do care about national pride however and invading Taiwan is definitely next on their radar



Question is, to what lengths will the US go to protect their Taiwanese ally ?


I believe they will attempt to defend the island but I doubt they would use nuclear weapons, and because of that I don’t think they could actually stop an invasion
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:21 am

Max Q wrote:
It seems inevitable that China will attempt to invade Taiwan at some point. Hong Kong is ‘back in the fold’
and they’re already disregarding many of the agreements made with the UK before the 1997 handover, the Chinese government simply doesn’t care


They do care about national pride however and invading Taiwan is definitely next on their radar



Question is, to what lengths will the US go to protect their Taiwanese ally ?


I believe they will attempt to defend the island but I doubt they would use nuclear weapons, and because of that I don’t think they could actually stop an invasion


It’s an open question because when the TRA was ratified by Congress in ‘79, the PRC was an entirely different and weaker power.
 
tommy1808
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:53 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Max Q wrote:
It seems inevitable that China will attempt to invade Taiwan at some point. Hong Kong is ‘back in the fold’
and they’re already disregarding many of the agreements made with the UK before the 1997 handover, the Chinese government simply doesn’t care


They do care about national pride however and invading Taiwan is definitely next on their radar



Question is, to what lengths will the US go to protect their Taiwanese ally ?


I believe they will attempt to defend the island but I doubt they would use nuclear weapons, and because of that I don’t think they could actually stop an invasion


It’s an open question because when the TRA was ratified by Congress in ‘79, the PRC was an entirely different and weaker power.


The US economy also wasn´t highly dependent on a single Taiwanese company in 79.

best regards
Thomas
 
Virtual737
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:49 am

tommy1808 wrote:
The US economy also wasn´t highly dependent on a single Taiwanese company in 79.

best regards
Thomas


Do you mean Foxconn? They are huge and I didn't realise they were Taiwanese, with turnover more than 4x the #2 Taiwanese company, with #3 in the same field too.
 
tommy1808
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:05 am

Virtual737 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
The US economy also wasn´t highly dependent on a single Taiwanese company in 79.

best regards
Thomas


Do you mean Foxconn? They are huge and I didn't realise they were Taiwanese, with turnover more than 4x the #2 Taiwanese company, with #3 in the same field too.


TSMC. You may very well not own a single electronic device that doesn´t have a TSMC made chip in it, and plenty of those will have a chip that has no 2nd source and is only made my by TSMC in Taiwan. And if such a exclusive TSMC chip it is not included, it is very likely there is one from either UMC or Mediatek in it. Those three companies are no. 1, 2 and 4 of the global supply for fabless chip manufacturing, which is where most chips are made today. Number three would be Samsung.
A few Thermite charges or incidental battle damage and the world economy grinds to a hold. As a US$ value even a nuclear exchange, given people come to their senses and it doesn´t spin out of control, may do a lot less damage.

best regards
Thomas
 
Virtual737
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:59 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
The US economy also wasn´t highly dependent on a single Taiwanese company in 79.

best regards
Thomas


Do you mean Foxconn? They are huge and I didn't realise they were Taiwanese, with turnover more than 4x the #2 Taiwanese company, with #3 in the same field too.


TSMC. You may very well not own a single electronic device that doesn´t have a TSMC made chip in it, and plenty of those will have a chip that has no 2nd source and is only made my by TSMC in Taiwan. And if such a exclusive TSMC chip it is not included, it is very likely there is one from either UMC or Mediatek in it. Those three companies are no. 1, 2 and 4 of the global supply for fabless chip manufacturing, which is where most chips are made today. Number three would be Samsung.
A few Thermite charges or incidental battle damage and the world economy grinds to a hold. As a US$ value even a nuclear exchange, given people come to their senses and it doesn´t spin out of control, may do a lot less damage.

best regards
Thomas


Yep, they are number 3 in the list of the biggest Taiwanese companies.
 
GDB
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:08 am

Most likely sequence of events? A further deterioration of US-China relations and more virulent political attacks on Taiwan, to create an 'issue', followed by extensive exercises for an amphibious assault.
This of course will be detected by the US and it will then they decide in the light of all intel, whether this is just more sabre rattling or preparations for the real thing.

China in turn will have to consider the US stance at the time, politically and militarily, it is likely that these developments in China will increase US military activity, including carrier groups in the region, increasingly too, not just US forces either, other regional ones as well as Western ones.

A major amphibious assault is regarded as one of the most difficult operations, no matter how powerful the assaulting forces are, in particular against a target that is well armed, geared for rapid mobilization and have been expecting this since their nation was formed.
(Did you know that many of the German forces guarding the beaches in June '44, including at Omaha, were not the crack, well armed ones of Hollywood films but included many Poles and others who were press ganged into uniform, given a rifle and generally who surrendered at the first chance they got?)
The forces defending Taiwan will not be like that, they will be defending their homeland.

Even under the cover of the exercise preparations for a real invasion will be hard to hide.
If the US does think that it's for real, aside from the naval operations they could deter China by inserting rapid deployment, likely airborne troops, in Taiwan for ‘exercises’. These would not add much to the material strength of the defences but raises the political stakes for China. Do they risk direct fighting with US ground forces, if planning an invasion for real they would assume the US would not insert it’s fleet in the straits.

Which is why they have been building those islands, not so much to directly threaten Taiwan but as part of a concerted campaign to get US forces out of the region, or far enough away at least.
Other measures the US could take include deploying, in public, assets like the F-22 or if we are talking somewhat longer term, whatever replaces it, B-2’s, later B-21’s exercising, upping the DEFCON.
The US would also likely call on major allies to deploy, in recent times France pissed China off by asserting rights of navigation through the waters China claims, with a group led by an assault ship, later this year HMS Queen Elizabeth’s group will do the same.

China is massively more powerful than in 1979 true, however it is also a society where 72 years of a one party state has bred massive, deep and endemic corruption. And not being a closed off Communist state would also take a massive economic hit. Even if they think their repressive society can contain it. The latter is their big fear.

It is thought that China is greatly inflating it’s growth stats, it faces a rapidly aging population, all these domestic problems of course might make them more tempted to go for Taiwan as a weapon of mass distraction.
Last edited by GDB on Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:37 am, edited 4 times in total.
 
tommy1808
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:29 am

GDB wrote:
A major amphibious assault is regarded as one of the most difficult operations, no matter how powerful the assaulting forces are, in particular against a target that is well armed, geared for rapid mobilization and have been expecting this since their nation was formed.


Plus the bit of Taiwan not having all to much coastline conductive to landings. The island isn´t exactly rich with nice beaches.

best regards
Thomas
 
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c933103
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:45 am

China will most likely try to take Kinmen or Matsu or Dongsha and such before Taiwan Main Island.
 
ltbewr
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:09 am

I don't think it will be a massive military conflict, but more like how in recent years Hong Kong has been forced into submission by the PRC government. Taiwan is a part of China, that is debated but in the end it is. To me the battles will be over trade with the 'mainland', attempts to control economic diplomacy, communications and news media, force a ban on the USA selling weapons to the ROC government, use the UN to assert control. To me the USA will only make token actions, much like with Hong Kong as cannot upset the trade with PRC.
Last edited by ltbewr on Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:09 am

c933103 wrote:
China will most likely try to take Kinmen or Matsu or Dongsha and such before Taiwan Main Island.


Absolutely - the residents of those islands cannot feel very secure.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:13 pm

No president will ever discuss, comment, opine on this subject. Even Trump, IIRC, offered no tweets. Unfortunately our best strategy is an industrial policy which offsets much of our utter dependence on Taiwan and the PRC. Republicans may reluctantly go along. But some profess love for Xi.
 
tommy1808
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:16 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Taiwan is a part of China.


There is nothing to debate. Taiwan never was a part of China, it was only ever was occupied by the same people.

Best regards
Thomas
 
LCDFlight
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:25 pm

Might makes right. China, although operationally inferior to US and possibly Taiwan forces in several aspects, has a menacing strategic position opposite Taiwan. Anti ship missiles and cruise missiles alone can really mess Taiwan up. And China is not under strategic threat at all. The calculus all favors China.

The US and Taiwan will have to wage a hearts and minds campaign against totalitarian China. And it needs to turn out better than the Crimea affair. Taiwan is a functioning, successful Chinese democratic society. This is why it is intolerable to China.

The greater campaign is for a permanent totalitarian mega state merging the Chinese race with a system of dictatorship. Dominating not just Asia. Global states will be unable to counter its influence. Every small or medium state will be at risk of becoming a Chinese vassal state. The long battle will be between democracy and dictatorship globally. The existence of each threatens the other. Neither can achieve true “security” without dominating the other. So, although they seek “security,” in order to do it they must neuter the US and NATO, becoming global apex predator.

Taiwan will be lost, but the grand conflict is bigger than that. Taiwan is a major symbolic prize in the global Cold War.
 
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Aesma
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:42 pm

Anti ship missiles work also against an invasion, though. And SAM against dropping troops. It's not like Hong Kong at all. Hong Kong is linked to the mainland, and Hong Kong was given back in 1997 anyway. What happened recently in HK is nothing like what China taking over Taiwan would be. Well, unless China manages to "seduce" Taiwan, that was the plan before Xi, but nowadays it doesn't seem to be anymore, and of course here what happened to HK doesn't help.

I can't say what the US would do, but if the US doesn't defend Taiwan, it would basically be conceding the crown to China, might as well close all these foreign bases and let China take over...

At the end of the day the battleground would be Taiwan/China, the US would only risk life and limb, they don't seem to have a problem doing that usually. And of course there is an industry ready to make more weapons for the US and Taiwan.

We should definitely be less dependent on both countries, but even if we were, the issue is moral and geopolitical, not just economic. If there was no oil, would we have cared about Kuwait ? Probably not. But for Taiwan, that's not the point.
 
johns624
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:37 pm

The wild card is Japan. With their defense minister's latest warning to the US and about a Russia/China Pearl Harbor type attack, I think they would be involved. If nukes aren't involved, they have a, if not Top 3, than a Top 5 air force and navy. They also don't like the Chinese. Japan is a bit far to make it a "concrete carrier" for defending Taiwan but it is well placed for attacks against much of the Chinese mainland.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:40 pm

Aesma wrote:
Anti ship missiles work also against an invasion, though. And SAM against dropping troops. It's not like Hong Kong at all. Hong Kong is linked to the mainland, and Hong Kong was given back in 1997 anyway. What happened recently in HK is nothing like what China taking over Taiwan would be. Well, unless China manages to "seduce" Taiwan, that was the plan before Xi, but nowadays it doesn't seem to be anymore, and of course here what happened to HK doesn't help.

I can't say what the US would do, but if the US doesn't defend Taiwan, it would basically be conceding the crown to China, might as well close all these foreign bases and let China take over...

At the end of the day the battleground would be Taiwan/China, the US would only risk life and limb, they don't seem to have a problem doing that usually. And of course there is an industry ready to make more weapons for the US and Taiwan.

We should definitely be less dependent on both countries, but even if we were, the issue is moral and geopolitical, not just economic. If there was no oil, would we have cared about Kuwait ? Probably not. But for Taiwan, that's not the point.

Taiwan is an independent country. There have been harassment attacks before. We give Taiwan classified tech to be a tough nut to crack. It could be seduced, I do not think it will be invaded because of cost.

TSMC and UMC are critical for the global economy. Cell phones, automobiles, and computers cease production if they stop.

If China invades, this is catestrophic economic war no economy will survive.

The comparison to the D-Day invasion is appropriate. Except... much longer ocean distance, worse beaches, better radar (more warning),. Urban warfare immediately (high attrition in an invading army).

Invading Taiwan is declaring economic war on the world. That would be interesting.

Lightsaber
 
johns624
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:58 pm

I think China screwed up bigtime by ending the Hong Kong agreements early. They were doing a decent job seducing the Taiwanese but when that happened they went back to square one.
 
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STT757
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:06 pm

GDB wrote:
Most likely sequence of events? A further deterioration of US-China relations and more virulent political attacks on Taiwan, to create an 'issue', followed by extensive exercises for an amphibious assault.
This of course will be detected by the US and it will then they decide in the light of all intel, whether this is just more sabre rattling or preparations for the real thing.

China in turn will have to consider the US stance at the time, politically and militarily, it is likely that these developments in China will increase US military activity, including carrier groups in the region, increasingly too, not just US forces either, other regional ones as well as Western ones.

A major amphibious assault is regarded as one of the most difficult operations, no matter how powerful the assaulting forces are, in particular against a target that is well armed, geared for rapid mobilization and have been expecting this since their nation was formed.
(Did you know that many of the German forces guarding the beaches in June '44, including at Omaha, were not the crack, well armed ones of Hollywood films but included many Poles and others who were press ganged into uniform, given a rifle and generally who surrendered at the first chance they got?)
The forces defending Taiwan will not be like that, they will be defending their homeland.

Even under the cover of the exercise preparations for a real invasion will be hard to hide.
If the US does think that it's for real, aside from the naval operations they could deter China by inserting rapid deployment, likely airborne troops, in Taiwan for ‘exercises’. These would not add much to the material strength of the defences but raises the political stakes for China. Do they risk direct fighting with US ground forces, if planning an invasion for real they would assume the US would not insert it’s fleet in the straits.

Which is why they have been building those islands, not so much to directly threaten Taiwan but as part of a concerted campaign to get US forces out of the region, or far enough away at least.
Other measures the US could take include deploying, in public, assets like the F-22 or if we are talking somewhat longer term, whatever replaces it, B-2’s, later B-21’s exercising, upping the DEFCON.
The US would also likely call on major allies to deploy, in recent times France pissed China off by asserting rights of navigation through the waters China claims, with a group led by an assault ship, later this year HMS Queen Elizabeth’s group will do the same.

China is massively more powerful than in 1979 true, however it is also a society where 72 years of a one party state has bred massive, deep and endemic corruption. And not being a closed off Communist state would also take a massive economic hit. Even if they think their repressive society can contain it. The latter is their big fear.

It is thought that China is greatly inflating it’s growth stats, it faces a rapidly aging population, all these domestic problems of course might make them more tempted to go for Taiwan as a weapon of mass distraction.


We're not there yet, but at some point if China keeps up the provocations and these "exercises" the US is going to pull the trigger and deploy assets to Taiwan. US forces used to be in Taiwan up until 1979.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_Command

I believe the PLA's plan for Taiwan is to try a rapid air/sea assault under the auspices of an exercise and try to flood the area with enough assets to deny US forces from Okinawa and Guam from coming to Taiwan's defense. The best way to defend from that is to have US and Taiwanese forces on the island fight to keep corridors open for reinforcements by sea or air. As a precursor to any assault the PLA would have to target those US forces on Taiwan, which would be a much more serious escalation than just air or sea area denial battles.
 
Max Q
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:45 pm

GDB wrote:
Most likely sequence of events? A further deterioration of US-China relations and more virulent political attacks on Taiwan, to create an 'issue', followed by extensive exercises for an amphibious assault.
This of course will be detected by the US and it will then they decide in the light of all intel, whether this is just more sabre rattling or preparations for the real thing.

China in turn will have to consider the US stance at the time, politically and militarily, it is likely that these developments in China will increase US military activity, including carrier groups in the region, increasingly too, not just US forces either, other regional ones as well as Western ones.

A major amphibious assault is regarded as one of the most difficult operations, no matter how powerful the assaulting forces are, in particular against a target that is well armed, geared for rapid mobilization and have been expecting this since their nation was formed.
(Did you know that many of the German forces guarding the beaches in June '44, including at Omaha, were not the crack, well armed ones of Hollywood films but included many Poles and others who were press ganged into uniform, given a rifle and generally who surrendered at the first chance they got?)
The forces defending Taiwan will not be like that, they will be defending their homeland.

Even under the cover of the exercise preparations for a real invasion will be hard to hide.
If the US does think that it's for real, aside from the naval operations they could deter China by inserting rapid deployment, likely airborne troops, in Taiwan for ‘exercises’. These would not add much to the material strength of the defences but raises the political stakes for China. Do they risk direct fighting with US ground forces, if planning an invasion for real they would assume the US would not insert it’s fleet in the straits.

Which is why they have been building those islands, not so much to directly threaten Taiwan but as part of a concerted campaign to get US forces out of the region, or far enough away at least.
Other measures the US could take include deploying, in public, assets like the F-22 or if we are talking somewhat longer term, whatever replaces it, B-2’s, later B-21’s exercising, upping the DEFCON.
The US would also likely call on major allies to deploy, in recent times France pissed China off by asserting rights of navigation through the waters China claims, with a group led by an assault ship, later this year HMS Queen Elizabeth’s group will do the same.

China is massively more powerful than in 1979 true, however it is also a society where 72 years of a one party state has bred massive, deep and endemic corruption. And not being a closed off Communist state would also take a massive economic hit. Even if they think their repressive society can contain it. The latter is their big fear.

It is thought that China is greatly inflating it’s growth stats, it faces a rapidly aging population, all these domestic problems of course might make them more tempted to go for Taiwan as a weapon of mass distraction.



Interesting


Your last paragraph reminds me of the Argentinian decision to invade the Falklands in 1982
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:43 pm

Should this terrible thing happen would the US want to use Japan as a runway to defend the area, would they let them?
I would think that America could not it itself be seen as weak in defending the reigion. No Nukes or mainland China hits but some serious warship damage in the Taiwan area, US submarines would play a part in this, and then a big pause.
Many countries working back channels to cool things down, working out a way where both sides don't loose FACE.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:09 pm

johns624 wrote:
The wild card is Japan. With their defense minister's latest warning to the US and about a Russia/China Pearl Harbor type attack, I think they would be involved. If nukes aren't involved, they have a, if not Top 3, than a Top 5 air force and navy. They also don't like the Chinese. Japan is a bit far to make it a "concrete carrier" for defending Taiwan but it is well placed for attacks against much of the Chinese mainland.


The 70+ year-old nationalists comprising most of Japan’s congress don’t like the Chinese. Japanese business owners and younger people love Chinese tourists and their money. Japan’s trade volume with China is double its volume with the US. There is as much ar stake in this economically for Japan as any other party in the discussion.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:12 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
Should this terrible thing happen would the US want to use Japan as a runway to defend the area, would they let them?
I would think that America could not it itself be seen as weak in defending the reigion. No Nukes or mainland China hits but some serious warship damage in the Taiwan area, US submarines would play a part in this, and then a big pause.
Many countries working back channels to cool things down, working out a way where both sides don't loose FACE.


That already exists. Kadena AFB in Okinawa is basically our primary Taiwan defense apparatus. USN assets are ported in Sasebo and Yokosuka.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:39 pm

Oddly enough some of us remember when Chiang Kai-Shek assured the world that there was only one China, and he was the rightful ruler. He also asserted that Tibet was part of China. There are aboriginal native people in Taiwan (they may be early ancestors of the Polynesians), whose culture was overwhelmed when Chiang and his armies and other allies retreated to the island. I was there at an event which marked a first for the original Formosans and the Chinese gathered for a religious celebration.
 
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Aesma
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:25 am

Taiwan isn't perfect however having China take control would hardly be an improvement.
 
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STT757
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:32 am

readytotaxi wrote:
Should this terrible thing happen would the US want to use Japan as a runway to defend the area, would they let them?
I would think that America could not it itself be seen as weak in defending the reigion. No Nukes or mainland China hits but some serious warship damage in the Taiwan area, US submarines would play a part in this, and then a big pause.
Many countries working back channels to cool things down, working out a way where both sides don't loose FACE.


First there’s already about 60,000 US Forces in Japan, second Japan also wants to defend Taiwan. This was in the news today:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invaded-says-deputy-pm-l7dnhdfn0
 
johns624
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:53 am

Max Q wrote:
GDB wrote:


It is thought that China is greatly inflating it’s growth stats, it faces a rapidly aging population, all these domestic problems of course might make them more tempted to go for Taiwan as a weapon of mass distraction.



Interesting


Your last paragraph reminds me of the Argentinian decision to invade the Falklands in 1982
Britain didn't help matters by signaling that they were retiring HMS Endurance, might be open to an island leaseback and might sell their latest carrier to Australia and just focus on NATO and the North Atlantic ASW role. If Argentina had waited 6-8 months, it would've been a done deal and Maggie's reputation would've been in the dustbin. She wanted to cut the armed forces as much as any other PM.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:54 am

johns624 wrote:
Max Q wrote:
GDB wrote:


It is thought that China is greatly inflating it’s growth stats, it faces a rapidly aging population, all these domestic problems of course might make them more tempted to go for Taiwan as a weapon of mass distraction.



Interesting


Your last paragraph reminds me of the Argentinian decision to invade the Falklands in 1982
Britain didn't help matters by signaling that they were retiring HMS Endurance, might be open to an island leaseback and might sell their latest carrier to Australia and just focus on NATO and the North Atlantic ASW role. If Argentina had waited 6-8 months, it would've been a done deal and Maggie's reputation would've been in the dustbin. She wanted to cut the armed forces as much as any other PM.


Every executive ever: 'look at all the money I saved!'
 
johns624
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:55 am

Aaron747 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
The wild card is Japan. With their defense minister's latest warning to the US and about a Russia/China Pearl Harbor type attack, I think they would be involved. If nukes aren't involved, they have a, if not Top 3, than a Top 5 air force and navy. They also don't like the Chinese. Japan is a bit far to make it a "concrete carrier" for defending Taiwan but it is well placed for attacks against much of the Chinese mainland.


The 70+ year-old nationalists comprising most of Japan’s congress don’t like the Chinese. Japanese business owners and younger people love Chinese tourists and their money. Japan’s trade volume with China is double its volume with the US. There is as much ar stake in this economically for Japan as any other party in the discussion.
Japan also knows that an even more powerful China would be very bad for Japan. It's just like China likes our dollars, but that doesn't stop them from trying to bully us. The Japanese have a lot of pride. They are also very proficient at things when they put their minds to it. Never sell them short.
 
tommy1808
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 4:59 am

Aaron747 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
The wild card is Japan. With their defense minister's latest warning to the US and about a Russia/China Pearl Harbor type attack, I think they would be involved. If nukes aren't involved, they have a, if not Top 3, than a Top 5 air force and navy. They also don't like the Chinese. Japan is a bit far to make it a "concrete carrier" for defending Taiwan but it is well placed for attacks against much of the Chinese mainland.


Japan’s trade volume with China is double its volume with the US


Germanys biggest trading partner before WWII: France
Japans biggest trading partner before WWII: USA

And they run a deficit in trade with China as well.

There is as much ar stake in this economically for Japan as any other party in the discussion.


Correct, but their economy grinds to a hold just as much as the rest of the global economy after a few bombs detonated on Taiwan.

best regards
Thomas
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:22 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Oddly enough some of us remember when Chiang Kai-Shek assured the world that there was only one China, and he was the rightful ruler. He also asserted that Tibet was part of China. There are aboriginal native people in Taiwan (they may be early ancestors of the Polynesians), whose culture was overwhelmed when Chiang and his armies and other allies retreated to the island. I was there at an event which marked a first for the original Formosans and the Chinese gathered for a religious celebration.

Chiang Kai-Shek is a figure that ruled Taiwan with its force retreated from China Mainland, operating like a government in exile, before Taiwan democraticized
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:59 am

johns624 wrote:
The wild card is Japan. With their defense minister's latest warning to the US and about a Russia/China Pearl Harbor type attack, I think they would be involved. If nukes aren't involved, they have a, if not Top 3, than a Top 5 air force and navy. They also don't like the Chinese. Japan is a bit far to make it a "concrete carrier" for defending Taiwan but it is well placed for attacks against much of the Chinese mainland.


Japan attacking mainland China? I don't see it happening. I don't see the point militarily. China would already be prepared for major losses if it tried invading Taiwan so I don't see death and destruction in a part of China within range of Japanese weapons changing things much.

China attempting an invasion of Taiwan would have big effects on the world economy. Especially on the US and Chinese economies - US ceasing to buy Chinese goods and China ceasing to buy US government debt. I think there would also be a dilemma for US - to honour bonds sold to China as they mature, or not. After Japan, China is the largest holder of US government debt. *
* https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

Prices would rise in the US and US interest rates would rise. China would see a reduction in production, particularly if a widespread international embargo of Chinese goods were implemented. Would Chinese action to conquer Taiwan result in another world financial crisis?

johns624 wrote:
I think China screwed up bigtime by ending the Hong Kong agreements early. They were doing a decent job seducing the Taiwanese but when that happened they went back to square one.


:checkmark:
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:00 pm

I wasn't just speaking of Japan attacking mainland China but also the US using Japan as a base. Any war between the US and China would immediately go global. Everyone would get involved. Russia would try to do a land grab while China had everyone's attention.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:33 pm

I think the Chinese would find out really quick that a lot of the world would be against such an aggressive move. Anyone remember the first gulf war?
The US an other countries (Japan, Indonesia, South Korea......) would probably form a coalition against the move, and enact strong embargo's until China withdrew. Remember China would have to establish military superiority over international waters by sea and air, and I don't think the rest of the world would let them do it. Taiwan is 100 miles off the coast of China, and the US and other allies would be able to establish air and sea embargos on China in those waters. China knows this , and that is why Taiwan continues to be separate.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:49 pm

casinterest wrote:
I think the Chinese would find out really quick that a lot of the world would be against such an aggressive move. Anyone remember the first gulf war?
The US an other countries (Japan, Indonesia, South Korea......) would probably form a coalition against the move, and enact strong embargo's until China withdrew. Remember China would have to establish military superiority over international waters by sea and air, and I don't think the rest of the world would let them do it. Taiwan is 100 miles off the coast of China, and the US and other allies would be able to establish air and sea embargos on China in those waters. China knows this , and that is why Taiwan continues to be separate.
If China tries to invade, the time for an "embargo" is past. It will turn into a shooting war. The longer that Taiwan can hold out, the more countries that will get involved. Besides for the countries you mentioned, I would add Australia and India.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 3:50 pm

johns624 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I think the Chinese would find out really quick that a lot of the world would be against such an aggressive move. Anyone remember the first gulf war?
The US an other countries (Japan, Indonesia, South Korea......) would probably form a coalition against the move, and enact strong embargo's until China withdrew. Remember China would have to establish military superiority over international waters by sea and air, and I don't think the rest of the world would let them do it. Taiwan is 100 miles off the coast of China, and the US and other allies would be able to establish air and sea embargos on China in those waters. China knows this , and that is why Taiwan continues to be separate.
If China tries to invade, the time for an "embargo" is past. It will turn into a shooting war. The longer that Taiwan can hold out, the more countries that will get involved. Besides for the countries you mentioned, I would add Australia and India.


It depends. in this day and age, one could hope we would see the invasion coming, but with bureaucracy and all, I expect that if china made the decision to go, it would take everyone a while to react. Australia , India and a host of others would respond as well.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:31 pm

Too bad that China just can't leave Taiwan alone to function as it's own independent country and/or work with them as a strong trading partner.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:37 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
Too bad that China just can't leave Taiwan alone to function as it's own independent country...


You mean like Iraq left its '19th state' alone for a long time?
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:01 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
Too bad that China just can't leave Taiwan alone to function as it's own independent country and/or work with them as a strong trading partner.
I think that they look at Taiwan not so much the island but as the Nationalists who got away. They can't let that happen.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:06 pm

I don’t think the US will do anything more than impose sanctions. I don’t believe the US public would be happy with the casualties a conflict with China would inflict. China is vastly different to fighting Arab jihadis in a Middle Eastern desert or Afghanistan. China Is peer (or near peer) nation, the Chinese would also be willing to sustain far more casualties than the US.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:09 pm

johns624 wrote:
I wasn't just speaking of Japan attacking mainland China but also the US using Japan as a base. Any war between the US and China would immediately go global. Everyone would get involved. Russia would try to do a land grab while China had everyone's attention.


What Chinese land would the Russians try grabbing?? Russia already has more land than anyone else, the lands in the Chinese Russian border aren’t resource rich like the territory they already have.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:11 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
johns624 wrote:
I wasn't just speaking of Japan attacking mainland China but also the US using Japan as a base. Any war between the US and China would immediately go global. Everyone would get involved. Russia would try to do a land grab while China had everyone's attention.


What Chinese land would the Russians try grabbing?? Russia already has more land than anyone else, the lands in the Chinese Russian border aren’t resource rich like the territory they already have.
I wasn't referring to Chinese lands. I meant more of the Ukraine, Georgia and even the Baltic republics.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:12 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
I don’t think the US will do anything more than impose sanctions. I don’t believe the US public would be happy with the casualties a conflict with China would inflict. China is vastly different to fighting Arab jihadis in a Middle Eastern desert or Afghanistan. China Is peer (or near peer) nation, the Chinese would also be willing to sustain far more casualties than the US.
It couldn't be a land conflict so casualties would be lower.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:16 pm

johns624 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
johns624 wrote:
I wasn't just speaking of Japan attacking mainland China but also the US using Japan as a base. Any war between the US and China would immediately go global. Everyone would get involved. Russia would try to do a land grab while China had everyone's attention.


What Chinese land would the Russians try grabbing?? Russia already has more land than anyone else, the lands in the Chinese Russian border aren’t resource rich like the territory they already have.
I wasn't referring to Chinese lands. I meant more of the Ukraine, Georgia and even the Baltic republics.


They made any indications they want any of those country’s , are you wearing your tinfoil hat today?
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:19 pm

johns624 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
I don’t think the US will do anything more than impose sanctions. I don’t believe the US public would be happy with the casualties a conflict with China would inflict. China is vastly different to fighting Arab jihadis in a Middle Eastern desert or Afghanistan. China Is peer (or near peer) nation, the Chinese would also be willing to sustain far more casualties than the US.
It couldn't be a land conflict so casualties would be lower.


You think the US public would be happy to see a CVN or two sunk? I also wonder if the Japanese or South Koreans would want to get involved, I don’t think they would. The down sides to a conflict with China is far more severe for them than the US.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:26 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:

What Chinese land would the Russians try grabbing?? Russia already has more land than anyone else, the lands in the Chinese Russian border aren’t resource rich like the territory they already have.
I wasn't referring to Chinese lands. I meant more of the Ukraine, Georgia and even the Baltic republics.


They made any indications they want any of those country’s , are you wearing your tinfoil hat today?
Well, they just annexed part of Ukraine a few years ago. I haven't gotten an answer yet from the email that I sent to Vlad, but I'll let you know what he says. Then there's this... https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/12/ru ... ilitary-2/
I don't wear a tinfoil hat but neither am I a card-carrying comrade like some around here. Putin will take whatever he thinks he can get away with.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:27 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
I don’t think the US will do anything more than impose sanctions. I don’t believe the US public would be happy with the casualties a conflict with China would inflict. China is vastly different to fighting Arab jihadis in a Middle Eastern desert or Afghanistan. China Is peer (or near peer) nation, the Chinese would also be willing to sustain far more casualties than the US.
It couldn't be a land conflict so casualties would be lower.


You think the US public would be happy to see a CVN or two sunk? I also wonder if the Japanese or South Koreans would want to get involved, I don’t think they would. The down sides to a conflict with China is far more severe for them than the US.
Americans didn't like 3000 people killed in the WTC either, but they didn't turn tail and do nothing. An omnipotent China is an even bigger downside for other Asian countries.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:00 pm

johns624 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
johns624 wrote:
I wasn't referring to Chinese lands. I meant more of the Ukraine, Georgia and even the Baltic republics.


They made any indications they want any of those country’s , are you wearing your tinfoil hat today?
Well, they just annexed part of Ukraine a few years ago. I haven't gotten an answer yet from the email that I sent to Vlad, but I'll let you know what he says. Then there's this... https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/12/ru ... ilitary-2/
I don't wear a tinfoil hat but neither am I a card-carrying comrade like some around here. Putin will take whatever he thinks he can get away with.


I don’t believe Russia has anymore territorial ambitions, they’ve taken back what was there’s, I can’t see them going after anything else. They don’t have the money or the manpower and it wouldn’t play well domestically.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:03 pm

johns624 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
johns624 wrote:
It couldn't be a land conflict so casualties would be lower.


You think the US public would be happy to see a CVN or two sunk? I also wonder if the Japanese or South Koreans would want to get involved, I don’t think they would. The down sides to a conflict with China is far more severe for them than the US.
Americans didn't like 3000 people killed in the WTC either, but they didn't turn tail and do nothing. An omnipotent China is an even bigger downside for other Asian countries.


True you invaded a country which had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11, which resulted in destabilising the Middle East for the next 2 decades, all for absolutely no result. Woohoo go team America.
 
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Re: How far will the US go to defend Taiwan from Mainland China ?

Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:33 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:

You think the US public would be happy to see a CVN or two sunk? I also wonder if the Japanese or South Koreans would want to get involved, I don’t think they would. The down sides to a conflict with China is far more severe for them than the US.
Americans didn't like 3000 people killed in the WTC either, but they didn't turn tail and do nothing. An omnipotent China is an even bigger downside for other Asian countries.


True you invaded a country which had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11, which resulted in destabilising the Middle East for the next 2 decades, all for absolutely no result. Woohoo go team America.


The middle east has been and will continue to be destabilized without the US. The US accomplished the primary goals of disrupting Al-Qaeda and keeping the US safe from the destabilization for awhile.

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