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Derico
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Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:16 am

World travel, and even cabotage travel, whether for business, family, or leisure, has basically seized to exist from the modern world due to the impracticality imposed on this activity by border and travel restrictions. There is no reason to believe this will end any time soon, and some are predicting most people will not be able to travel more than 50 miles or 100 kilometers from their home, on average, for the next 3-5 years.

At this point in the pandemic (not last year, and not at the beginning of this year), I am opposed to blanket travel bans and restrictions, because they do not allow leeway for long term business or family trips, where a two-week quarantine makes more sense than for a 3 day weekend getaway. But more importantly because it is destroying young people's educational prospects, it has devastated families separated, and because it is engendering a dangerous brand of medieval isolation and localism, erecting walls between cultures, at a time when the opposite is needed. And the original point of this was to stop the virus from reach other regions (failed), or variants from reaching other regions (has failed again and again).

What is the point of keeping people totally within a confined region when the virus is now, de facto, endemic everywhere? (and whatever place or two where it is not, their dilemma is no better either). But that's my opinion and many disagree.

But what about this then, does it even make sense to keep segregating and isolating the virus into compartments, which literally, become 100s of small laboratories for variant emergence? When you look at other aspects of biology or culture, the more people or organism are isolated and out of contact with each other, the more divergences between entities that once had a common origin emerge. You see this in zoology, botany, linguistics, customs and mores, etc.

So let's imagine you could stop all travel across national borders, to keep it simple. We know the virus is in community spread literally everywhere. So you sort of would have 200 different laboratories to develop new variants. Is it really, at this point, not better to do the opposite and counter-intuitive thing and that is allow free movement, everywhere? Like that, you only have one, albeit massive, laboratory... but wouldn't that actually lower variant emergence since you are not isolating the virus into hundreds of smaller environments? I'm asking this because I don't know the answer, virologists and epidemiologists could answer this perhaps.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:40 pm

Free Movement just allows more spread. The side effect of distances traveled is that it allows more cross contamination of your "laboratories" This is what happens with normal viruses and it is what will happen with Covid as well. The best thing we all can do is get vaccinated to prevent the spread. Lockdowns at this point are frustrating because most reasonable adults should already have the vaccine, but thanks to lies and bad information many people do not care to get vaccinated . We will see how governments treat this virus in the next few months, but there are over 50% of adults that are highly frustrated that the virus is going to continue to kill people due to their own short sighted personal choice.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:28 pm

I fully agree with this and it has been my opinion for a while.

Isolation is a knee jerk reaction that is mostly driven by fear and basic emotional response than reason (The UK recently preventing travel to and from nations with lower levels of infection than their own country is a good example of the logical fallacies some of these policies follow).
Some countries like Australia even go to the extreme of closing inner borders and preventing citizens from traveling freely within their own nation.

At the height of the crisis, there was some use in closing borders to avoid seeing the wave of infections grow too rapidly and allow unvaccinated countries more time to prepare for it (though many did a poor job of it). As you say however, there is no amount of travel impairment that prevents the virus from breaking through eventually. As the Delta variant is showing the World, no matter how safe you think you are within your own borders, it is only a matter of time before the virus finds a way in.
The current wave in Asia and the Pacific shows how nations who though they were safe from it thanks to strict border closures were in fact lulled to complacency by this false sense of security and lost the motivation to seek the only solution to this crisis: immunity (preferably through vaccination).

That was the only reason, in my eyes, for border closures: to buy enough time to inoculate the population... instead it became a waste of time as many of these nations are nowhere near vaccinated enough.

Now there's variants being created in every region of the World, each potentially causing it's own global wave and delaying any degree of normalization as the World falls back into fear, panic and paranoia each time the curve goes back up.

Allowing international travel to properly vaccinated people would present only limited risk of additional global spreading and would likely allow to homogenize the strain the whole planet is dealing with to an extent, rather than having to devise new vaccines for every variant that was created in its own isolated petri dish. This being said, preventing variants from appearing in the future is likely impossible anyway.

The reality that Covid will be with us for a long time hasn't sunk in yet for many. But then again, vaccination levels are still way too low in many parts of the World to tolerate too much risk and spread.
This is why I have zero sympathy for those who are lucky enough to be given access to vaccination and yet refuse to take it...
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:07 pm

Lockdowns slow spread. We now have hospitals at capacity at much lower levels than before (e.g., capacity 32 coronavirus when before it was 61 patients in beds with room to grow).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

My opinion is where vaccines are available, the medical staff just are too burned out to care about unvaccinated unless they are too young to be vaccinated.

Travel restrictions prevent Lambda from saturating an area trying to vaccinate. Or Delta.

I personally expect exceptionally well vaccinated areas to start setting mutually agreed travel rules:
1. which vaccines are acceptable or which can be made acceptable.
2. Which areas have extra hoops to travel through.
3. If any unvaccinated may travel at all (including children).

The only good solution is to get so many people vaccinated globally that the virus goes away. That isn't possible in 2021 due to Vaccine supply, in particular more effective vaccine supply.

France has mandated vaccines for restaurants, rail travel, and shopping malls. I expect more and more areas to make an approved vaccine required to enter their area.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1273756

Because this virus has long haul symptoms, it only makes sense to have a global effort to eradicate it. I expect school mandates to become almost universal. I expect more stigma for unvaccinated and some for under-vaccinated.

We all want this to end. Few viruses have disappeared without adequate vaccination. Unselfish people will realize they protect others getting vaccinated.

Lightsaber
 
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seb146
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:44 pm

I also wonder how much of this is programmed into our DNA. Some people are allergic to different medications. I had to have a blood test long ago because they wanted me on something and had to make sure I had no DNA from Mediterranean countries because that would have caused a reaction. I thought that was odd and I don't remember ever being prescribed that one. Several of us at work got both Moderna shots. I had a couple of hot flashes and injection site pain. One guy was in bed for a week.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Because this virus has long haul symptoms, it only makes sense to have a global effort to eradicate it.


That would be nice, but we haven't even eradicated Polio Types 1 and 3 yet. We've only ever managed to eradicate smallpox and bovine rinderpest.

This virus is going to be a bigger challenge because it is a primarily mucosal virus and the spike protein is quite flexible, allowing for a wide range of immune evasion amino acid changes. I don't see vaccination as being a reasonable path to eradication in the forseeable future.

I think this virus is going to reach an equilibrium in which it will become the fifth endemic human coronavirus. Children will be infected before age 5 and then retain memory immunity to quickly control reinfections with future variants through the lifespan, just as we currently do with the four other endemic coronaviruses, 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1. That equilibrium will probably take 10-20 years to reach, but the vaccines can move us toward it much more quickly.

The problem is now that we are tracking it, we are going to see numbers and sequencing reports for the rest of civilization. There will be yearly, seasonal (probably) surges in the virus and I suspect authorities will freak out. I think it's important to keep the perspective that cases don't matter, disease and hospitalizations matter. If there is now enough background seroprevalence that this has become a common cold coronavirus, then I don't see a reason to continue with restrictions.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:34 pm

Doc,

Thank you very much for taking the time to explain this in terms understandable to all.
 
drew777
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:42 pm

I have found the most frustrating part of planning travel right now not to be the restrictions, but that they're always changing. We gave up on going to the Bahamas last year because they were changing the entry requirements so often. We're going to the Maldives this October. At first being vaccinated was good enough. Now you need an PCR test regardless of vaccination status. Who knows what it'll be when October finally rolls around.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:29 am

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Because this virus has long haul symptoms, it only makes sense to have a global effort to eradicate it.


That would be nice, but we haven't even eradicated Polio Types 1 and 3 yet. We've only ever managed to eradicate smallpox and bovine rinderpest.

This virus is going to be a bigger challenge because it is a primarily mucosal virus and the spike protein is quite flexible, allowing for a wide range of immune evasion amino acid changes. I don't see vaccination as being a reasonable path to eradication in the forseeable future.

I think this virus is going to reach an equilibrium in which it will become the fifth endemic human coronavirus. Children will be infected before age 5 and then retain memory immunity to quickly control reinfections with future variants through the lifespan, just as we currently do with the four other endemic coronaviruses, 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1. That equilibrium will probably take 10-20 years to reach, but the vaccines can move us toward it much more quickly.

The problem is now that we are tracking it, we are going to see numbers and sequencing reports for the rest of civilization. There will be yearly, seasonal (probably) surges in the virus and I suspect authorities will freak out. I think it's important to keep the perspective that cases don't matter, disease and hospitalizations matter. If there is now enough background seroprevalence that this has become a common cold coronavirus, then I don't see a reason to continue with restrictions.

I know of friends in hospitals where too many nurses are quiting from burnout.

I think the long haul symptoms matter. What foods I eat have changed from what I cannot taste. Unfortunately, this has passed six months, so probably permanent loss of some taste.

I wonder if kids will lose their sense of taste.

We'll have to see. I don't know of any common cold coronavirus that have long haul symptoms, but with Covid19 I personally know dozens of people with long haul symptoms.

As to Polio, we gave up just before we eradicated it. I'm the youngest US born person I know who was vaccinated against it who didn't travel somewhere with polio.

So there should be a global effort vs. coronavirus. Heck, now that we have such effective vaccines, we'll hopefully start reducing other viruses. I look forward to influenza, malaria, and other new mRNA vaccines.

The UK eliminated rabies. Time to be ambitious. US hospitalizations are back over 20,000.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

Lightsaber
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:19 am

lightsaber wrote:

I wonder if kids will lose their sense of taste.


So far much less than adults do.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:22 pm

The problem is now that we are tracking it, we are going to see numbers and sequencing reports for the rest of civilization. There will be yearly, seasonal (probably) surges in the virus and I suspect authorities will freak out. I think it's important to keep the perspective that cases don't matter, disease and hospitalizations matter. If there is now enough background seroprevalence that this has become a common cold coronavirus, then I don't see a reason to continue with restrictions


I blame the media for this.

All the variants are still 99% covid 19, however is is portrayed that each variant is a different virus. That is not the case.

Which is why the vaccines work very well on all potential variants of concern, the immune system is attacking the same virus essentially.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:

I know of friends in hospitals where too many nurses are quiting from burnout.


It’s been a tough year, but are those nurses quitting because of current conditions? Currently hospitals are at levels similar to 2019 and below, so if nurses are getting burned out it’s because of existing issues in the health system.

We'll have to see. I don't know of any common cold coronavirus that have long haul symptoms, but with Covid19 I personally know dozens of people with long haul symptoms.


Any vaccinated persons developing long Covid?

The UK eliminated rabies.


It just took about 200 years. I’d like to travel internationally sometime before 2221 if I could,

US hospitalizations are back over 20,000.


A fraction of the last wave and well within excess hospital capacity.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:45 pm

I wonder if kids will lose their sense of taste.

We'll have to see. I don't know of any common cold coronavirus that have long haul symptoms, but with Covid19 I personally know dozens of people with long haul symptoms.


This is because as Doc said you are probably exposed before the age of 5 and have some degree of lifetime immunity that prevents severe illness. It doesn't seem that kids are being seriously affected by this virus, their risks are higher with the variants in terms of exposure but it seems that the risk for children from covid is equal to or less than the flu.

Furthermore while your loss of taste seems to really suck.

I have had long-hauler symptoms from common colds at least twice in my past, where the symptoms persisted for up to 3 months. This was a latent cough typically that I couldn't shake for some time, but it affected things like exercise and day to day functions. Thankfully these did pass over time.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:55 pm

lightsaber wrote:

I know of friends in hospitals where too many nurses are quiting from burnout.


It’s been a tough year, but are those nurses quitting because of current conditions? Currently hospitals are at levels similar to 2019 and below, so if nurses are getting burned out it’s because of existing issues in the health system.

A fraction of the last wave and well within excess hospital capacity.


It's the system at large. Nurses have faced cuts for decades and covid exposed the problems with this.

We have found this with not just healthcare. Essentially across on all industries the "just in time" model of getting things done has been exposed with this pandemic.

sierrakilo44 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

We'll have to see. I don't know of any common cold coronavirus that have long haul symptoms, but with Covid19 I personally know dozens of people with long haul symptoms.


Any vaccinated persons developing long Covid?
.


Not that I have heard. The severe cases post vaccination come into this primarily.

- Age and immune system levels.
- Partially vaccinated.

If its minor or asymptomatic for most people and there are no lingering symptoms then the CDC is right and vaccinated people don't need to worry. We will also be first in line for the boosters that tackle the variants when they are made available.

Us vaccinated people need to go about our business and say to those who won't get the shots. You are on your own if the system gets overwhelmed.
This is why plans for a domestic passport system is being floated. Vaccinated individuals are not going to tolerate another lockdown to protect those who didn't get the shot.

sierrakilo44 wrote:
The UK eliminated rabies.


It just took about 200 years. I’d like to travel internationally sometime before 2221 if I could,

US hospitalizations are back over 20,000.


A fraction of the last wave and well within excess hospital capacity.[/quote]

It took 200 years to eradicate smallpox also.

In terms of hospitalization once its realized there might be an issue it might be too later to do anything about it.

That is where the UK and US have to tread carefully.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:59 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

I know of friends in hospitals where too many nurses are quiting from burnout.


It’s been a tough year, but are those nurses quitting because of current conditions? Currently hospitals are at levels similar to 2019 and below, so if nurses are getting burned out it’s because of existing issues in the health system.

A fraction of the last wave and well within excess hospital capacity.


It's the system at large. Nurses have faced cuts for decades and covid exposed the problems with this.

We have found this with not just healthcare. Essentially across on all industries the "just in time" model of getting things done has been exposed with this pandemic.


I have to agree, the just in time, maximize efficiency pushed people to, in my opinion, a low level constant burnout. The stresses of coronavirus, including lack of normal socialization, has created turnover.

It is my opinion, supported by (I admit) anecdotal evidence, we cannot handle anything close to the prior surge. Hospitals must service delayed health issues.

I also know specialists who helped during the surge whose temporary contracts are over. They will not be signing new contracts. This includes dentists and hygienists who did vaccines, pediatricians/surgeons/plastic surgeons/retired nurses and nurse specialties who stepped in to help during the crisis. When asked to come back, the nicest answer they give is "why?"

I also know doctors who helped coronavirus defending their turf. e.g , cardiac ensuring "clean" ICU beds remain open to them for cardiac as they lost non-coronavirus patients last year as they couldn't get patients into the ICUs dedicated to virus patients (you cannot mix).

We do not have anything close to the prior capacity.

Anyone who manages a surge knows how hard it is to manage past six weeks, people burn out. Now that medical staff are released, they are not going back.

So anyone not getting vaccinated is really rolling the dice. We need to keep out variants due to the new reality of less hospital capacity.

I didn't quote you, but I too want open travel again. But I also have concern for unvaccinated children. Once they are vaccinated, I will shut up.

Lightsaber
 
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seb146
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:37 am

I am not a virologist. It seems that those who contract the delta variant and end up in hospitals are not vaxxed. I don't know that closing everything down would stop the spread. Especially in the United States where "freedom" and "'Murica" are much more powerful than vaccines. I still so very much want to wear my mask. I do not come in contact with many people on a day-to-day basis. I still do not want to take the chance.
 
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c933103
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:42 am

Yes it is somewhat effective, and is why there're still some countries where Delta haven't dominant yet, and also Lambda is still only affecting relatively few countries by now.
But the problem is, the isolation is far from.complete, which result in Delta still success in invading many countries, and Lambda is now spreading
 
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:21 pm

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Because this virus has long haul symptoms, it only makes sense to have a global effort to eradicate it.


That would be nice, but we haven't even eradicated Polio Types 1 and 3 yet. We've only ever managed to eradicate smallpox and bovine rinderpest.

This virus is going to be a bigger challenge because it is a primarily mucosal virus and the spike protein is quite flexible, allowing for a wide range of immune evasion amino acid changes. I don't see vaccination as being a reasonable path to eradication in the forseeable future.

I think this virus is going to reach an equilibrium in which it will become the fifth endemic human coronavirus. Children will be infected before age 5 and then retain memory immunity to quickly control reinfections with future variants through the lifespan, just as we currently do with the four other endemic coronaviruses, 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1. That equilibrium will probably take 10-20 years to reach, but the vaccines can move us toward it much more quickly.

The problem is now that we are tracking it, we are going to see numbers and sequencing reports for the rest of civilization. There will be yearly, seasonal (probably) surges in the virus and I suspect authorities will freak out. I think it's important to keep the perspective that cases don't matter, disease and hospitalizations matter. If there is now enough background seroprevalence that this has become a common cold coronavirus, then I don't see a reason to continue with restrictions.


Very interesting post, especially given the well qualified source. Thank you.

People are reliably poor at math and logic. The CDC will issue a mandate for masks, if and when COVID presents an unusual level of risk to vaccinated people above the risk levels they have always considered "normal."

This does involve thousands of people dying. Dying is something that has always been normal! One way people sometimes die is respiratory infectious diseases. At normal rates, this is normal.

People have totally lost the plot now and are masking "until we beat this." They do not understand what you wrote: that containment is lost, it will be endemic, that this is a fact now.

Covid is not among the top causes of death for vaccinated Americans of any age afaik right? So WTH do people think they are accomplishing... there will be huge efforts to close schools AGAIN this fall, based on unscientific, emotional COVID panic.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:42 pm

seb146 wrote:
I am not a virologist. It seems that those who contract the delta variant and end up in hospitals are not vaxxed. I don't know that closing everything down would stop the spread. Especially in the United States where "freedom" and "'Murica" are much more powerful than vaccines. I still so very much want to wear my mask. I do not come in contact with many people on a day-to-day basis. I still do not want to take the chance.


I'll give an example that I heard about from talking to my dad yesterday.

My cousin in Florida. Her husband is an anti-vaxxer and thought this wasn't a big deal. Recently got it and it hospitalized (he's in his late 40's /early 50's). My cousin is fully vaccinated and tested positive but no symptoms or very little. Her 19 year old daughter is really sick and their 5 year old is sick but its mild.

Everyone in the house got it but my cousin who is vaccinated is fine.

This is what every health expert has said will happen and its a good thing.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:01 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Because this virus has long haul symptoms, it only makes sense to have a global effort to eradicate it.


That would be nice, but we haven't even eradicated Polio Types 1 and 3 yet. We've only ever managed to eradicate smallpox and bovine rinderpest.

This virus is going to be a bigger challenge because it is a primarily mucosal virus and the spike protein is quite flexible, allowing for a wide range of immune evasion amino acid changes. I don't see vaccination as being a reasonable path to eradication in the forseeable future.

I think this virus is going to reach an equilibrium in which it will become the fifth endemic human coronavirus. Children will be infected before age 5 and then retain memory immunity to quickly control reinfections with future variants through the lifespan, just as we currently do with the four other endemic coronaviruses, 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1. That equilibrium will probably take 10-20 years to reach, but the vaccines can move us toward it much more quickly.

The problem is now that we are tracking it, we are going to see numbers and sequencing reports for the rest of civilization. There will be yearly, seasonal (probably) surges in the virus and I suspect authorities will freak out. I think it's important to keep the perspective that cases don't matter, disease and hospitalizations matter. If there is now enough background seroprevalence that this has become a common cold coronavirus, then I don't see a reason to continue with restrictions.


Very interesting post, especially given the well qualified source. Thank you.

People are reliably poor at math and logic. The CDC will issue a mandate for masks, if and when COVID presents an unusual level of risk to vaccinated people above the risk levels they have always considered "normal."

This does involve thousands of people dying. Dying is something that has always been normal! One way people sometimes die is respiratory infectious diseases. At normal rates, this is normal.

People have totally lost the plot now and are masking "until we beat this." They do not understand what you wrote: that containment is lost, it will be endemic, that this is a fact now.

Covid is not among the top causes of death for vaccinated Americans of any age afaik right? So WTH do people think they are accomplishing... there will be huge efforts to close schools AGAIN this fall, based on unscientific, emotional COVID panic.


A lot of this is safety theatre, such as taking your shoes off in a TSA line.

What you are describing are liberals that aren't following the science. The left has overestimated the danger and the right has underestimated it.

Schools have been deemed generally safe and children are of the least risk to get severe Covid, masking outside is next to useless. Also if you have a kid under 12 going to school its likely that their parents are vaccinated. Perhaps schools check the vaccination records of the parents until 12 and under vaccines are approved.

With these surges we need to know who is being hospitalized. We need to know of who test positive who is vaccinated and who isn't and the same for who is entering hospitals.

In Ontario we are floating a local vaccine passport to prevent a fall lockdown as our government is lockdown hungry. It's funny because what the experts call high risk have actually put in effort to take precautions to not have superspreader events (gym's restaurants, movie theaters, bars etc). Where the biggest spreader events have been at essential places like warehouses and at the home. While I doubt the legality of this a mass lockdown from unvaccinated stressing hospital capacity will give off the image that the vaccines don't work and won't encourage vaccination.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:49 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

That would be nice, but we haven't even eradicated Polio Types 1 and 3 yet. We've only ever managed to eradicate smallpox and bovine rinderpest.

This virus is going to be a bigger challenge because it is a primarily mucosal virus and the spike protein is quite flexible, allowing for a wide range of immune evasion amino acid changes. I don't see vaccination as being a reasonable path to eradication in the forseeable future.

I think this virus is going to reach an equilibrium in which it will become the fifth endemic human coronavirus. Children will be infected before age 5 and then retain memory immunity to quickly control reinfections with future variants through the lifespan, just as we currently do with the four other endemic coronaviruses, 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1. That equilibrium will probably take 10-20 years to reach, but the vaccines can move us toward it much more quickly.

The problem is now that we are tracking it, we are going to see numbers and sequencing reports for the rest of civilization. There will be yearly, seasonal (probably) surges in the virus and I suspect authorities will freak out. I think it's important to keep the perspective that cases don't matter, disease and hospitalizations matter. If there is now enough background seroprevalence that this has become a common cold coronavirus, then I don't see a reason to continue with restrictions.


Very interesting post, especially given the well qualified source. Thank you.

People are reliably poor at math and logic. The CDC will issue a mandate for masks, if and when COVID presents an unusual level of risk to vaccinated people above the risk levels they have always considered "normal."

This does involve thousands of people dying. Dying is something that has always been normal! One way people sometimes die is respiratory infectious diseases. At normal rates, this is normal.

People have totally lost the plot now and are masking "until we beat this." They do not understand what you wrote: that containment is lost, it will be endemic, that this is a fact now.

Covid is not among the top causes of death for vaccinated Americans of any age afaik right? So WTH do people think they are accomplishing... there will be huge efforts to close schools AGAIN this fall, based on unscientific, emotional COVID panic.


A lot of this is safety theatre, such as taking your shoes off in a TSA line.

What you are describing are liberals that aren't following the science. The left has overestimated the danger and the right has underestimated it.

Schools have been deemed generally safe and children are of the least risk to get severe Covid, masking outside is next to useless. Also if you have a kid under 12 going to school its likely that their parents are vaccinated. Perhaps schools check the vaccination records of the parents until 12 and under vaccines are approved.

With these surges we need to know who is being hospitalized. We need to know of who test positive who is vaccinated and who isn't and the same for who is entering hospitals.

In Ontario we are floating a local vaccine passport to prevent a fall lockdown as our government is lockdown hungry. It's funny because what the experts call high risk have actually put in effort to take precautions to not have superspreader events (gym's restaurants, movie theaters, bars etc). Where the biggest spreader events have been at essential places like warehouses and at the home. While I doubt the legality of this a mass lockdown from unvaccinated stressing hospital capacity will give off the image that the vaccines don't work and won't encourage vaccination.

While the majority in the hospital are unvaccinated and either obese, elderly, or in risk groups, not all . I'm currently sitting and chatting with a coronavirus doctor.

This doctor was supposed to be treating long haul symptoms now, but they had to reactivate the ward a few months back


I disagree on focusing on hospitalizations as I had a trivial case, but with long haul symptoms despite taking all the precautions.

We need more vaccines because the nurses are exhausted. People are being turned away for other care because they had to have a floor and a half 'go dark' at their hospital because enough is enough. The impacts on staffing is the critical factor. Not who is in the hospital. The reality is a coronavirus patient requires an incredible number of hours of care.

The easy out is more vaccinations, including younger kids.

Lightsaber
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1371
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

Very interesting post, especially given the well qualified source. Thank you.

People are reliably poor at math and logic. The CDC will issue a mandate for masks, if and when COVID presents an unusual level of risk to vaccinated people above the risk levels they have always considered "normal."

This does involve thousands of people dying. Dying is something that has always been normal! One way people sometimes die is respiratory infectious diseases. At normal rates, this is normal.

People have totally lost the plot now and are masking "until we beat this." They do not understand what you wrote: that containment is lost, it will be endemic, that this is a fact now.

Covid is not among the top causes of death for vaccinated Americans of any age afaik right? So WTH do people think they are accomplishing... there will be huge efforts to close schools AGAIN this fall, based on unscientific, emotional COVID panic.


A lot of this is safety theatre, such as taking your shoes off in a TSA line.

What you are describing are liberals that aren't following the science. The left has overestimated the danger and the right has underestimated it.

Schools have been deemed generally safe and children are of the least risk to get severe Covid, masking outside is next to useless. Also if you have a kid under 12 going to school its likely that their parents are vaccinated. Perhaps schools check the vaccination records of the parents until 12 and under vaccines are approved.

With these surges we need to know who is being hospitalized. We need to know of who test positive who is vaccinated and who isn't and the same for who is entering hospitals.

In Ontario we are floating a local vaccine passport to prevent a fall lockdown as our government is lockdown hungry. It's funny because what the experts call high risk have actually put in effort to take precautions to not have superspreader events (gym's restaurants, movie theaters, bars etc). Where the biggest spreader events have been at essential places like warehouses and at the home. While I doubt the legality of this a mass lockdown from unvaccinated stressing hospital capacity will give off the image that the vaccines don't work and won't encourage vaccination.

While the majority in the hospital are unvaccinated and either obese, elderly, or in risk groups, not all . I'm currently sitting and chatting with a coronavirus doctor.

This doctor was supposed to be treating long haul symptoms now, but they had to reactivate the ward a few months back


I disagree on focusing on hospitalizations as I had a trivial case, but with long haul symptoms despite taking all the precautions.

We need more vaccines because the nurses are exhausted. People are being turned away for other care because they had to have a floor and a half 'go dark' at their hospital because enough is enough. The impacts on staffing is the critical factor. Not who is in the hospital. The reality is a coronavirus patient requires an incredible number of hours of care.

The easy out is more vaccinations, including younger kids.

Lightsaber


It's not necessary to wear masks to save "all" lives, though. If that were the standard in auto deaths, it would mean we can never use wheeled vehicles. Certain death rates are considered normal and accepted as part of normal life.

About nurses, the peaks of COVID must have been exhausting. But AFAIK, the doctors I know say business was WAY down in 2020. One of them closed a clinic. They all had furlough time. Health insurers had record profits.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4216
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:07 pm

lightsaber wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

Very interesting post, especially given the well qualified source. Thank you.

People are reliably poor at math and logic. The CDC will issue a mandate for masks, if and when COVID presents an unusual level of risk to vaccinated people above the risk levels they have always considered "normal."

This does involve thousands of people dying. Dying is something that has always been normal! One way people sometimes die is respiratory infectious diseases. At normal rates, this is normal.

People have totally lost the plot now and are masking "until we beat this." They do not understand what you wrote: that containment is lost, it will be endemic, that this is a fact now.

Covid is not among the top causes of death for vaccinated Americans of any age afaik right? So WTH do people think they are accomplishing... there will be huge efforts to close schools AGAIN this fall, based on unscientific, emotional COVID panic.


A lot of this is safety theatre, such as taking your shoes off in a TSA line.

What you are describing are liberals that aren't following the science. The left has overestimated the danger and the right has underestimated it.

Schools have been deemed generally safe and children are of the least risk to get severe Covid, masking outside is next to useless. Also if you have a kid under 12 going to school its likely that their parents are vaccinated. Perhaps schools check the vaccination records of the parents until 12 and under vaccines are approved.

With these surges we need to know who is being hospitalized. We need to know of who test positive who is vaccinated and who isn't and the same for who is entering hospitals.

In Ontario we are floating a local vaccine passport to prevent a fall lockdown as our government is lockdown hungry. It's funny because what the experts call high risk have actually put in effort to take precautions to not have superspreader events (gym's restaurants, movie theaters, bars etc). Where the biggest spreader events have been at essential places like warehouses and at the home. While I doubt the legality of this a mass lockdown from unvaccinated stressing hospital capacity will give off the image that the vaccines don't work and won't encourage vaccination.

While the majority in the hospital are unvaccinated and either obese, elderly, or in risk groups, not all . I'm currently sitting and chatting with a coronavirus doctor.

This doctor was supposed to be treating long haul symptoms now, but they had to reactivate the ward a few months back


I disagree on focusing on hospitalizations as I had a trivial case, but with long haul symptoms despite taking all the precautions.

We need more vaccines because the nurses are exhausted. People are being turned away for other care because they had to have a floor and a half 'go dark' at their hospital because enough is enough. The impacts on staffing is the critical factor. Not who is in the hospital. The reality is a coronavirus patient requires an incredible number of hours of care.

The easy out is more vaccinations, including younger kids.

Lightsaber


I do totally understand your long haul symptoms suck and it does also for many others. Unfortunately you, along with millions of other people were unfortunate to get the virus before the vaccine was available. I do hope you make a full recovery.

Furthermore on this note, we need to know if these long haul symptoms are present in those who have been vaccinated. That is a big question mark, along with how contagious a vaccinated person is

The vaccines are available, supply in the US is not an issue. The issue is that the FDA hasn't extended their EUA to children under 12 and trials are pending. One thing to allow school to open is to perhaps confirm the vaccination status of each child's parents or legal guardians for those kids to attend school.

Even with Delta the risk to kids is still low compared to the rest of the population. If it's being transmitted in schools and the parents and teachers are vaccinated then the virus isn't going to go far. That is a reasonable stop gap until it's approved for all ages (in reality it's going to likely be 5+).
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1371
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:18 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

A lot of this is safety theatre, such as taking your shoes off in a TSA line.

What you are describing are liberals that aren't following the science. The left has overestimated the danger and the right has underestimated it.

Schools have been deemed generally safe and children are of the least risk to get severe Covid, masking outside is next to useless. Also if you have a kid under 12 going to school its likely that their parents are vaccinated. Perhaps schools check the vaccination records of the parents until 12 and under vaccines are approved.

With these surges we need to know who is being hospitalized. We need to know of who test positive who is vaccinated and who isn't and the same for who is entering hospitals.

In Ontario we are floating a local vaccine passport to prevent a fall lockdown as our government is lockdown hungry. It's funny because what the experts call high risk have actually put in effort to take precautions to not have superspreader events (gym's restaurants, movie theaters, bars etc). Where the biggest spreader events have been at essential places like warehouses and at the home. While I doubt the legality of this a mass lockdown from unvaccinated stressing hospital capacity will give off the image that the vaccines don't work and won't encourage vaccination.

While the majority in the hospital are unvaccinated and either obese, elderly, or in risk groups, not all . I'm currently sitting and chatting with a coronavirus doctor.

This doctor was supposed to be treating long haul symptoms now, but they had to reactivate the ward a few months back


I disagree on focusing on hospitalizations as I had a trivial case, but with long haul symptoms despite taking all the precautions.

We need more vaccines because the nurses are exhausted. People are being turned away for other care because they had to have a floor and a half 'go dark' at their hospital because enough is enough. The impacts on staffing is the critical factor. Not who is in the hospital. The reality is a coronavirus patient requires an incredible number of hours of care.

The easy out is more vaccinations, including younger kids.

Lightsaber


I do totally understand your long haul symptoms suck and it does also for many others. Unfortunately you, along with millions of other people were unfortunate to get the virus before the vaccine was available. I do hope you make a full recovery.

Furthermore on this note, we need to know if these long haul symptoms are present in those who have been vaccinated. That is a big question mark, along with how contagious a vaccinated person is

The vaccines are available, supply in the US is not an issue. The issue is that the FDA hasn't extended their EUA to children under 12 and trials are pending. One thing to allow school to open is to perhaps confirm the vaccination status of each child's parents or legal guardians for those kids to attend school.

Even with Delta the risk to kids is still low compared to the rest of the population. If it's being transmitted in schools and the parents and teachers are vaccinated then the virus isn't going to go far. That is a reasonable stop gap until it's approved for all ages (in reality it's going to likely be 5+).


I don't think any of this rises to the level of placing conditions on whether children can attend school.

COVID isn't killing that many people under 18 or vaccinated adults AFAIK (please feel free to correct me on this). Just because people are dying from their own choice does not mean we should close schools, IMO. That is an immense sledgehammer to children's well being.

Let unvaccinated adults die, which is their choice. Why harm kids? This has nothing to do with them.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23114
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:36 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
While the majority in the hospital are unvaccinated and either obese, elderly, or in risk groups, not all . I'm currently sitting and chatting with a coronavirus doctor.

This doctor was supposed to be treating long haul symptoms now, but they had to reactivate the ward a few months back


I disagree on focusing on hospitalizations as I had a trivial case, but with long haul symptoms despite taking all the precautions.

We need more vaccines because the nurses are exhausted. People are being turned away for other care because they had to have a floor and a half 'go dark' at their hospital because enough is enough. The impacts on staffing is the critical factor. Not who is in the hospital. The reality is a coronavirus patient requires an incredible number of hours of care.

The easy out is more vaccinations, including younger kids.

Lightsaber


I do totally understand your long haul symptoms suck and it does also for many others. Unfortunately you, along with millions of other people were unfortunate to get the virus before the vaccine was available. I do hope you make a full recovery.

Furthermore on this note, we need to know if these long haul symptoms are present in those who have been vaccinated. That is a big question mark, along with how contagious a vaccinated person is

The vaccines are available, supply in the US is not an issue. The issue is that the FDA hasn't extended their EUA to children under 12 and trials are pending. One thing to allow school to open is to perhaps confirm the vaccination status of each child's parents or legal guardians for those kids to attend school.

Even with Delta the risk to kids is still low compared to the rest of the population. If it's being transmitted in schools and the parents and teachers are vaccinated then the virus isn't going to go far. That is a reasonable stop gap until it's approved for all ages (in reality it's going to likely be 5+).


I don't think any of this rises to the level of placing conditions on whether children can attend school.

COVID isn't killing that many people under 18 or vaccinated adults AFAIK (please feel free to correct me on this). Just because people are dying from their own choice does not mean we should close schools, IMO. That is an immense sledgehammer to children's well being.

Let unvaccinated adults die, which is their choice. Why harm kids? This has nothing to do with them.

Kids have died from Delta and Lambda. While their long haul symptoms are less than adults, it is, from the best I can tell, still happening.

I never said close schools and see no one proposing that, but we need either a vaccine for younger kids or we have to do more of the mixed Zoom classroom/low density classroom.

I have mentioned schools will be a breeding ground for coronavirus. The issue is the 2% of the population that cannot build an immunity.
Cancer patients
Kidney patients
HIV
other imniosupresed

This will harm enough kids to matter. So get them vaccinated.

The big issue is nurses and doctors are exhausted. They need a break, not another wave. Some areas are low, some now it is high.

I like the idea of confirming parent and guardian vaccination status for schools. To my knowledge, that would be an effective way to control the spread.

Lightsaber
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18742
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 28, 2021 12:58 am

StarAC17 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

That would be nice, but we haven't even eradicated Polio Types 1 and 3 yet. We've only ever managed to eradicate smallpox and bovine rinderpest.

This virus is going to be a bigger challenge because it is a primarily mucosal virus and the spike protein is quite flexible, allowing for a wide range of immune evasion amino acid changes. I don't see vaccination as being a reasonable path to eradication in the forseeable future.

I think this virus is going to reach an equilibrium in which it will become the fifth endemic human coronavirus. Children will be infected before age 5 and then retain memory immunity to quickly control reinfections with future variants through the lifespan, just as we currently do with the four other endemic coronaviruses, 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1. That equilibrium will probably take 10-20 years to reach, but the vaccines can move us toward it much more quickly.

The problem is now that we are tracking it, we are going to see numbers and sequencing reports for the rest of civilization. There will be yearly, seasonal (probably) surges in the virus and I suspect authorities will freak out. I think it's important to keep the perspective that cases don't matter, disease and hospitalizations matter. If there is now enough background seroprevalence that this has become a common cold coronavirus, then I don't see a reason to continue with restrictions.


Very interesting post, especially given the well qualified source. Thank you.

People are reliably poor at math and logic. The CDC will issue a mandate for masks, if and when COVID presents an unusual level of risk to vaccinated people above the risk levels they have always considered "normal."

This does involve thousands of people dying. Dying is something that has always been normal! One way people sometimes die is respiratory infectious diseases. At normal rates, this is normal.

People have totally lost the plot now and are masking "until we beat this." They do not understand what you wrote: that containment is lost, it will be endemic, that this is a fact now.

Covid is not among the top causes of death for vaccinated Americans of any age afaik right? So WTH do people think they are accomplishing... there will be huge efforts to close schools AGAIN this fall, based on unscientific, emotional COVID panic.


A lot of this is safety theatre, such as taking your shoes off in a TSA line. .

I honestly don't know whom we're doing all this for. Then again that could be said about most of what TSA does too. Granted it was nice to have planes cleaned regularly for once. :roll:
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4216
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 28, 2021 3:48 am

LCDFlight wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
While the majority in the hospital are unvaccinated and either obese, elderly, or in risk groups, not all . I'm currently sitting and chatting with a coronavirus doctor.

This doctor was supposed to be treating long haul symptoms now, but they had to reactivate the ward a few months back


I disagree on focusing on hospitalizations as I had a trivial case, but with long haul symptoms despite taking all the precautions.

We need more vaccines because the nurses are exhausted. People are being turned away for other care because they had to have a floor and a half 'go dark' at their hospital because enough is enough. The impacts on staffing is the critical factor. Not who is in the hospital. The reality is a coronavirus patient requires an incredible number of hours of care.

The easy out is more vaccinations, including younger kids.

Lightsaber


I do totally understand your long haul symptoms suck and it does also for many others. Unfortunately you, along with millions of other people were unfortunate to get the virus before the vaccine was available. I do hope you make a full recovery.

Furthermore on this note, we need to know if these long haul symptoms are present in those who have been vaccinated. That is a big question mark, along with how contagious a vaccinated person is

The vaccines are available, supply in the US is not an issue. The issue is that the FDA hasn't extended their EUA to children under 12 and trials are pending. One thing to allow school to open is to perhaps confirm the vaccination status of each child's parents or legal guardians for those kids to attend school.

Even with Delta the risk to kids is still low compared to the rest of the population. If it's being transmitted in schools and the parents and teachers are vaccinated then the virus isn't going to go far. That is a reasonable stop gap until it's approved for all ages (in reality it's going to likely be 5+).


I don't think any of this rises to the level of placing conditions on whether children can attend school.

COVID isn't killing that many people under 18 or vaccinated adults AFAIK (please feel free to correct me on this). Just because people are dying from their own choice does not mean we should close schools, IMO. That is an immense sledgehammer to children's well being.

Let unvaccinated adults die, which is their choice. Why harm kids? This has nothing to do with them.


Kids and younger adults don't run the government, older and very comfortable people do. They are not ones that want to take risk with life because they don't have to. They also protect their own interests above those of children and young adults. Most of those people say in the US congress are higher risk than most of society so they govern with their interests in mind and have essentially said f*ck the kids.

If there is the possibility that viral spread can get out of control then many regions will close schools or probably try to.

They common saying is that the kids are tough and resilient but now the work will have to be done to treat what will be a torrent of mental health issues from 5 year old kids to those up to 30.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4216
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 28, 2021 4:02 am

lightsaber wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

I do totally understand your long haul symptoms suck and it does also for many others. Unfortunately you, along with millions of other people were unfortunate to get the virus before the vaccine was available. I do hope you make a full recovery.

Furthermore on this note, we need to know if these long haul symptoms are present in those who have been vaccinated. That is a big question mark, along with how contagious a vaccinated person is

The vaccines are available, supply in the US is not an issue. The issue is that the FDA hasn't extended their EUA to children under 12 and trials are pending. One thing to allow school to open is to perhaps confirm the vaccination status of each child's parents or legal guardians for those kids to attend school.

Even with Delta the risk to kids is still low compared to the rest of the population. If it's being transmitted in schools and the parents and teachers are vaccinated then the virus isn't going to go far. That is a reasonable stop gap until it's approved for all ages (in reality it's going to likely be 5+).


I don't think any of this rises to the level of placing conditions on whether children can attend school.

COVID isn't killing that many people under 18 or vaccinated adults AFAIK (please feel free to correct me on this). Just because people are dying from their own choice does not mean we should close schools, IMO. That is an immense sledgehammer to children's well being.

Let unvaccinated adults die, which is their choice. Why harm kids? This has nothing to do with them.

Kids have died from Delta and Lambda. While their long haul symptoms are less than adults, it is, from the best I can tell, still happening.

I never said close schools and see no one proposing that, but we need either a vaccine for younger kids or we have to do more of the mixed Zoom classroom/low density classroom.

I have mentioned schools will be a breeding ground for coronavirus. The issue is the 2% of the population that cannot build an immunity.
Cancer patients
Kidney patients
HIV
other imniosupresed

This will harm enough kids to matter. So get them vaccinated.

The big issue is nurses and doctors are exhausted. They need a break, not another wave. Some areas are low, some now it is high.

I like the idea of confirming parent and guardian vaccination status for schools. To my knowledge, that would be an effective way to control the spread.

Lightsaber


Checking the vaccination status of parents is a suitable stop-gap to confirm that its less likely that a kid brings the virus into the school. Until the vaccines are approved for those under 12 which I predict will be early fall as trials are going on now.

It is to be expected that kids will die from Covid unfortunately but are their risks any higher than a disease like the flu? Or anything else that regularly circulates around the community. We know that Covid is about 10 times more deadly than the flu in the average adult, I am not convinced that this is the case with any child under 12. As the risk of death increases with age more so than any other co-morbidities.

Also I am not sure where you live attempted schools last year. Where I live they did get about 50% of the year completed in person. They were online from January to Mid February, and the year went online at the beginning of April due to a bad 3rd wave. This was to a lot of pushback to the them being closed past May 1st. These kids all wore masks and will have to come September this year.

What was discovered is that schools were never the epicenter of spread. Schools that had high levels of community transmission had it because the surrounding community had it, not because of the school per sey.

This was when Canada had next to no vaccinations and now we are outpacing the US. The only reason that schools might be the epicentre now is that they are the only place where many unvaccinated people will congregate. All other community settings have a large number of vaccinated people to prevent what we had last winter.
 
User avatar
CitizenJustin
Posts: 882
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:12 am

Re: Viral mutations: One giant Pitri Dish or 200 tiny labs?

Wed Jul 28, 2021 9:58 pm

seb146 wrote:
I am not a virologist. It seems that those who contract the delta variant and end up in hospitals are not vaxxed. I don't know that closing everything down would stop the spread. Especially in the United States where "freedom" and "'Murica" are much more powerful than vaccines. I still so very much want to wear my mask. I do not come in contact with many people on a day-to-day basis. I still do not want to take the chance.




“I still so very much want to wear my mask. I do not come in contact with many people on a day-to-day basis. I still do not want to take the chance.”



I’m right there with you seb.

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