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CH47A
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:22 am

Appreciate the assistance, Aaron747, and I think this on May15th from the State Department folks sort of covers their butt on the question of warning folks to clear out:

The May 15th alert has this:

The Embassy reminds U.S. citizens that on April 27, 2021, the Department of State ordered the departure from U.S. Embassy Kabul of U.S. government employees whose functions can be performed elsewhere due to increasing violence and threat reports in Kabul. The Travel Advisory for Afghanistan remains Level 4-Do Not Travel due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, armed conflict, and COVID-19. Commercial flight options from Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) remain available and the U.S. Embassy strongly suggests that U.S. citizens make plans to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible. Given the security conditions and reduced staffing, the Embassy’s ability to assist U.S. citizens in Afghanistan is extremely limited.


So now the ugly questions:
1. What very good reason would a U.S. citizen have for staying after being advised to get out?
2. Those that are still there now; is the United States government duty bound to rescue them or see to their safety?

* * * Wait a minute, if there was a Level 4-Do Not Travel, how the heck do they get to the airport?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:42 am

CH47A wrote:
Appreciate the assistance, Aaron747, and I think this on May15th from the State Department folks sort of covers their butt on the question of warning folks to clear out:

The May 15th alert has this:

The Embassy reminds U.S. citizens that on April 27, 2021, the Department of State ordered the departure from U.S. Embassy Kabul of U.S. government employees whose functions can be performed elsewhere due to increasing violence and threat reports in Kabul. The Travel Advisory for Afghanistan remains Level 4-Do Not Travel due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, armed conflict, and COVID-19. Commercial flight options from Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) remain available and the U.S. Embassy strongly suggests that U.S. citizens make plans to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible. Given the security conditions and reduced staffing, the Embassy’s ability to assist U.S. citizens in Afghanistan is extremely limited.


So now the ugly questions:
1. What very good reason would a U.S. citizen have for staying after being advised to get out?
2. Those that are still there now; is the United States government duty bound to rescue them or see to their safety?

* * * Wait a minute, if there was a Level 4-Do Not Travel, how the heck do they get to the airport?


Hard to answer #1 but #2 is easy: State Dept advisories do not limit movement or international travel. They simply notify US citizens that they are putting themselves at risk and cannot expect responsive consular assistance. Advisories also (obviously) have no regulatory effect on overseas institutions or airport operations.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/NE ... tions_.pdf
 
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HAWK21M
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:50 am

BawliBooch wrote:
HAWK21M wrote:
Unless its an elected Govt in Afghanistan.... Most democracies will NOT recognize the Taliban regime.
I wont be surprised if China offers to set up investments there
But next target will be the elimination of the Durand line in a few years time.


Oh please!

Why should China not invest in Afghanistan? Chinese investments in infrastructure and industry will actually help the Afghan population more than anything all the other powers playing the Afghan games are planning.

India's National Security Advisor, the self proclaimed "Indian James Bond" Ajit Doval has been conducting secret talks with the Taliban leadership in places like Doha and Germany across all of last year. The slavish Indian media has been calling this a MASTERSTROKE for months now! Everything Dear Leader does is just that - a Masterstroke!

Indian officials engaging with Taliban ‘quietly’
Times of India

The aim is clear - to use the Taliban in Afghanistan as a lever to destabilise Pakistan. The recent moves by TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) are an indicator on which way they will move. "James Bond" Doval is an old hand when it comes to dealing with Taliban. It was Ajit Doval who negotiated the shameful surrender in Kandahar after the Indian Airlines IC184 hijack.

Taliban and Modi Govt are a match made in heaven - like Italy and Germany in WW2! Both religious extremist parties who use violence against Religious Minorities and women.

This is not about Democracy! It never was!

Afghanistan has been the playground for big power games ever since the British unilaterally drew the Durand Line.


Why will the world recognize the Taliban.
Im sure the Northern Alliance will be propped up in counter soon
 
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HAWK21M
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:53 am

What about the Military equipment and Armour left by the Afghan Army & taken over by the Taliban.
This could be shared to Pak Army & Terrorist Organisations
 
CH47A
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:22 pm

Two answers came to me for #1:
A. Family member is very sick and cannot travel. // B. Wife is far into pregnancy and cannot travel.

And I am assuming, Aaron747, that your point about #2 is that even though the State Department advised folks to leave, if they didn't, the U.S. government is bound by law to rescue them. I'm only tossing the "by law" into that because it only just came to me. I'm at multiple tasks here and so I am missing things that might be obvious if I could focus 100% on just this issue being discussed in this thread. I think the "by law" parameter could be important.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:40 pm

CH47A wrote:
Two answers came to me for #1:
A. Family member is very sick and cannot travel. // B. Wife is far into pregnancy and cannot travel.

And I am assuming, Aaron747, that your point about #2 is that even though the State Department advised folks to leave, if they didn't, the U.S. government is bound by law to rescue them. I'm only tossing the "by law" into that because it only just came to me. I'm at multiple tasks here and so I am missing things that might be obvious if I could focus 100% on just this issue being discussed in this thread. I think the "by law" parameter could be important.


My point was no more or less than what was posted. Consular services are services - meaning they must be sought out by citizen users. They are of no obligation to help/assist you otherwise. The advisory's purpose is to make clear that expectations for level of service available should be lowered.
 
TokyoImperialPa
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:50 pm

HAWK21M wrote:
What about the Military equipment and Armour left by the Afghan Army & taken over by the Taliban.
This could be shared to Pak Army & Terrorist Organisations


The border between the two countries is virtually non-existent and millions of Afghanis live in Pakistan with crossings taking place as if the border did not exist. It would be nearly impossible to halt the advance of the Taliban into Pakistan, militarily, or just through the exchange on ideas and radicalism. Pakistan could fall into a quasi-state of civil war soon.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:15 pm

Imagine JFK going home for some R&R during the Cuban Missle crisis, Imagine Gerald Ford going home during the fall of Saigon. Imagine Jimmy Carter going home for vaction during the Teheran hostage crisis. Imagine Reagan going home duing the Granada crisis, Imagine GHWB going home to vacation during Desert Storm. Imagine GWB going on vacation during September 11.

Why is our commander and chief going on vacation during one of the most difficult and deepest crisis in generations. Thousands of Americans techincally held hostage by the Taliban.
https://nypost.com/2021/08/19/faa-alert ... -delaware/

The Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday restricted airspace over Wilmington, Delaware, for the weekend — revealing President Biden planned to head home despite the chaotic situation in Afghanistan.

The temporary flight restrictions for “VIP movement” go into effect Friday evening and are set to last until around 1:30 a.m. Monday, according to an FAA alert issued Thursday.

The White House on Thursday night released a daily schedule confirming that Biden will travel to Wilmington around 2 pm Friday after delivering a speech on Afghanistan.

The trip, Biden’s 18th since becoming president, comes after he faced intense backlash for being at Camp David in Maryland last weekend as the Taliban rapidly swept through Afghanistan, taking the capital of Kabul on Sunday.



This is a severe dereliction of duty. This is not political. We need someone to actually be in charge of this, not hide when there is a crisis. Kamala Harris, are you able to do this? Nancy Pelosi (next in line) are you able?

The US, the world certainly doesn't deserve this. Austin, Milley if you can't do your job because the WH doesn't let you then resign. Serious crisis of credibility, leadership, messaging everything going on.

Sad times.
 
wingman
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:42 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Imagine JFK going home for some R&R during the Cuban Missle crisis, Imagine Gerald Ford going home during the fall of Saigon. Imagine Jimmy Carter going home for vaction during the Teheran hostage crisis. Imagine Reagan going home duing the Granada crisis, Imagine GHWB going home to vacation during Desert Storm. Imagine GWB going on vacation during September 11.

Why is our commander and chief going on vacation during one of the most difficult and deepest crisis in generations. Thousands of Americans techincally held hostage by the Taliban.
https://nypost.com/2021/08/19/faa-alert ... -delaware/

The Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday restricted airspace over Wilmington, Delaware, for the weekend — revealing President Biden planned to head home despite the chaotic situation in Afghanistan.

The temporary flight restrictions for “VIP movement” go into effect Friday evening and are set to last until around 1:30 a.m. Monday, according to an FAA alert issued Thursday.

The White House on Thursday night released a daily schedule confirming that Biden will travel to Wilmington around 2 pm Friday after delivering a speech on Afghanistan.

The trip, Biden’s 18th since becoming president, comes after he faced intense backlash for being at Camp David in Maryland last weekend as the Taliban rapidly swept through Afghanistan, taking the capital of Kabul on Sunday.



This is a severe dereliction of duty. This is not political. We need someone to actually be in charge of this, not hide when there is a crisis. Kamala Harris, are you able to do this? Nancy Pelosi (next in line) are you able?

The US, the world certainly doesn't deserve this. Austin, Milley if you can't do your job because the WH doesn't let you then resign. Serious crisis of credibility, leadership, messaging everything going on.

Sad times.


Ill wager Trump played at least 50 rounds of golf while COVID killed 500,000 Americans. That would equate to 10,000 deaths every 18 holes. I dont recall you expressing your disdain in 2020. You voted for the guy so i assume you’re very much in favor of relaxation, dereliction of duty and even worse. Your hero was a draft dodging coward that nearly choked on a gold spoon at birth. It’s hard to take your criticism seriously.
 
phluser
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:42 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Imagine JFK going home for some R&R during the Cuban Missle crisis, Imagine Gerald Ford going home during the fall of Saigon. Imagine Jimmy Carter going home for vaction during the Teheran hostage crisis. Imagine Reagan going home duing the Granada crisis, Imagine GHWB going home to vacation during Desert Storm. Imagine GWB going on vacation during September 11.

Why is our commander and chief going on vacation during one of the most difficult and deepest crisis in generations. Thousands of Americans techincally held hostage by the Taliban.
https://nypost.com/2021/08/19/faa-alert ... -delaware/

The Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday restricted airspace over Wilmington, Delaware, for the weekend — revealing President Biden planned to head home despite the chaotic situation in Afghanistan.

The temporary flight restrictions for “VIP movement” go into effect Friday evening and are set to last until around 1:30 a.m. Monday, according to an FAA alert issued Thursday.

The White House on Thursday night released a daily schedule confirming that Biden will travel to Wilmington around 2 pm Friday after delivering a speech on Afghanistan.

The trip, Biden’s 18th since becoming president, comes after he faced intense backlash for being at Camp David in Maryland last weekend as the Taliban rapidly swept through Afghanistan, taking the capital of Kabul on Sunday.


Where did it say he is going home for vacation? He botched up the execution of the exit but by this point, his weekend trip home and one a short flight away to Delaware, isn't going to make a difference.
 
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par13del
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:48 pm

CH47A wrote:
Two answers came to me for #1:
A. Family member is very sick and cannot travel. // B. Wife is far into pregnancy and cannot travel.

And I am assuming, Aaron747, that your point about #2 is that even though the State Department advised folks to leave, if they didn't, the U.S. government is bound by law to rescue them. I'm only tossing the "by law" into that because it only just came to me. I'm at multiple tasks here and so I am missing things that might be obvious if I could focus 100% on just this issue being discussed in this thread. I think the "by law" parameter could be important.

Even though it is not a US requirement or mandate, a lot of persons when they become American citizens still maintain passports from their countries of birth, this is at times the number of citizens to be evacuated is high, folks enter the country with their non-US passports and require evacuation via their US passports.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... ality.html
 
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SQ22
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:53 pm

Can we please keep the US centric discussion out of this thread i.e. the role and behaviour of the current vs. the previous government? Feel free to continue this discussion in a separate thread. Thanks.
 
johns624
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:55 pm

Aesma wrote:

What's more surprising is why western people there, aside from directly linked with embassy work, still thought it was a good idea to stay.

That's been my question, too. Whether there were warnings from the State Dept or not. Here would be my thought process if I were there. "I'm in a country that my country has been at war with for 20 years. All US troops are pulling out. The side we were fighting is winning. TIME TO LEAVE!". Of course, there are always the "adventurers". Every country has them. They think they can fend for themselves, but they really can't. I just read about a 21yo British student who just got out. We have a poster here who was just in Iraq and posted about wanting to visit Somalia and Afghanistan. While we should try to get those kinds of people out, I don't think that we should risk many lives to do it. Sometimes, stupid has to hurt. Flame on!
Here's a very muted example. A few years ago, my wife and I were on an NCL cruise from AMS to FCO. The ship had a propulsion unit break down on the way to BCN. It took 2-3 days before NCL admitted that the problem couldn't be fixed. By the time they did, we already had cheap ($125) tickets on Vueling to FCO. We just sat there and chuckled at all the people waiting for NCL to get them a flight or trying to get tickets themselves, after prices had skyrocketed. People need to think ahead and take care of themselves. Just like the people who know a hurricane is coming or can see a huge wildfire on the next ridge, yet are waiting for the official evacuation order.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:57 pm

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
HAWK21M wrote:
What about the Military equipment and Armour left by the Afghan Army & taken over by the Taliban.
This could be shared to Pak Army & Terrorist Organisations


The border between the two countries is virtually non-existent and millions of Afghanis live in Pakistan with crossings taking place as if the border did not exist. It would be nearly impossible to halt the advance of the Taliban into Pakistan, militarily, or just through the exchange on ideas and radicalism. Pakistan could fall into a quasi-state of civil war soon.


The Taliban and most Afghans **do not** recognize the Durand Line. So I'd suspect that the Taliban would eventually use the military hardware to reclaim that area that lies in Pakistan for the ethnic peoples living on both sides of the British drawn Durand Line. The Brits... they love to draw lines on maps don't they!!!
Last edited by DIRECTFLT on Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:00 pm

Biden will give an address (and not a Press Conference??) Friday concerning the events in Afghanistan.

https://apnews.com/article/business-hea ... d46ffae146
 
wingman
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:06 pm

It begs some essential questions then for the exit deal makers:

1. Would the Taliban have “behaved” like Pompous warned them to if he and Trump were still in charge?

2. Would we all be cheering a surge “like you’ve never seen before” that Trump threatened the mullahs with when he executed that incredible deal?

Given that the answers are an emphatic no and no, it would be nice to see the details of their withdrawal plan. Surely they must've had one lying next to the healthcare plan and surely they must've debriefed Biden and team during the peaceful transfer of power. Oh wait, Trump was busy trying to overthrow the government and turn our democracy into an oligarchy. He probably didn't do much of the typical transition stuff that was on a 240 year streak.
 
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par13del
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:22 pm

Why exactly do we believe that Pakistan will be destabilized by Afghanistan, I could see the militancy increasing in Kashmir with India, but what exactly would be the beef between Pakistan and the Taliban?
 
TokyoImperialPa
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:45 pm

par13del wrote:
Why exactly do we believe that Pakistan will be destabilized by Afghanistan, I could see the militancy increasing in Kashmir with India, but what exactly would be the beef between Pakistan and the Taliban?


Kashmir has as much to do with this as the crisis in Burma. It is not relevant to the thread. Though bringing yet another geopolitical conflict to the foothills of India and increasing terrorism globally (along with a new migrants crisis) is.

The problem is that there is no hard border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Millions of Afghans live in Pakistan and cross the border daily as if it does not exist, and if terror had a home it would be Pakistan. The latter is ruled by an ineffective government with no control over its local populace (worse than Afghanistan) who have only ever been historically united against its hatred of Hindus in India, whereas the Taliban have the ability to impress totalitarian control over its populace without democracy or western interventionism. Pakistan is on friendly terms with the Taliban and has been supporting them for years, but this also means that the Taliban have supporters among the Pakistani population and could allow for a surge of terrorism in the country. Pakistan does not have the ability to stop the rise of Taliban in its country beyond "nice words".
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:34 pm

I'm not sure the vehicles and aircraft we left in Afghanistan are as much a threat as some may think. The aircraft will be un-serviceable soon. We didn't leave any tanks did we? Artillery, heavy mortars are a different story.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:45 pm

I listened to Biden's address today. I though it would sound canned, but it didn't. He sounded heartfelt, and makes a clear case that the US is doing all it can, and will do all it can to evacuate those coming to the US. After listening to his address, I feel confident that we are doing all we can.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:53 pm

The US has no further responsibility for random Americans in Afghanistan.

This is completely up to the government of Afghanistan. Americans in the area should ask the Afghans what to do next.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:53 pm

CH47A wrote:
Two answers came to me for #1:
A. Family member is very sick and cannot travel. // B. Wife is far into pregnancy and cannot travel.

And I am assuming, Aaron747, that your point about #2 is that even though the State Department advised folks to leave, if they didn't, the U.S. government is bound by law to rescue them. I'm only tossing the "by law" into that because it only just came to me. I'm at multiple tasks here and so I am missing things that might be obvious if I could focus 100% on just this issue being discussed in this thread. I think the "by law" parameter could be important.


If you enter your embassy then yeah there is probably a law that the US needs to take care of you (if it's still operational), otherwise I doubt there is a law that the US will save you from anywhere anytime you need. Consular assistance is limited even at the best of times.

I remember reading somewhere that you will even be charged for the equivalent of a plane ticket if you're evacuated.

johns624 wrote:
Aesma wrote:

What's more surprising is why western people there, aside from directly linked with embassy work, still thought it was a good idea to stay.

That's been my question, too. Whether there were warnings from the State Dept or not. Here would be my thought process if I were there. "I'm in a country that my country has been at war with for 20 years. All US troops are pulling out. The side we were fighting is winning. TIME TO LEAVE!". Of course, there are always the "adventurers". Every country has them.


A French student had on his "post Covid bucket list" to have "dangerous vacations" and so went to AFG... He has now taken a repatriation flight.

DIRECTFLT wrote:
The Taliban and most Afghans **do not** recognize the Durand Line. So I'd suspect that the Taliban would eventually use the military hardware to reclaim that area that lies in Pakistan for the ethnic peoples living on both sides of the British drawn Durand Line. The Brits... they love to draw lines on maps don't they!!!


Are armored humvees really useful, though ? Toyota pick-ups seem to be much more popular with guerilla everywhere.

These humvees can't take RPG fire so not really useful against an army, just a big target. And they're gas guzzlers aren't they ?
 
CH47A
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:51 pm

Having to be in a bit of a hurry I am looking to Reuters for help right now on what the CIC stated as to intention and so let me offer that link:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/facing ... 021-08-20/

I suppose that military requirements to uphold the promise of getting all U.S. citizens out will be increased more than a tad.

But before I have to move on I want to place a note here (to myself as well) to dig into that report the Reuters folks say they know about that some embassy folks were warning somebody that trouble was around the corner if certain methods of operation were implemented to meet the CIC instructions to have all folks out by August 31st of this year. If the folks at that embassy did warn of possible trouble and those warnings were ignored, that's trouble for some folks.

My goodness, what a mess this is!
 
NIKV69
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:58 pm

Aesma wrote:

Aside from the drones maybe, there is nothing fancy.

Unlike other times when things like Stingers were lost...


You don't think the blackhawks are fancy? :sarcastic:

Aesma wrote:

OK, let's say you're the president now, from this minute. What do you do ? Do you send 20000 men back, yes or no ? Do you carpet bomb Kabul, maybe, killing countless civilians ?


I tell the truth to the media and get my people and anyone else I said I would out. It's already a total debacle but his words and his actions especially not leaving Camp David were pretty bad and he made it worse with his statements. This isn't me saying it. Most if not all of the MSM has. He has intel that said this could happen and he ignored it.
Last edited by NIKV69 on Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
CH47A
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:59 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
The US has no further responsibility for random Americans in Afghanistan.
- - - truncated - - -


It does now. If the CIC states to the nation and all others on this planet that all means will be used to get the U.S. citizens out of harm's way, that places the U.S. government square into 'Responsibility Square' to do just that.

No backing out now without even worse harm to an already horrid image a whole mess of peoples around the planet have of our nation. It is time to start to fix things. The problem has been identified. Time to fix things. More active duty folks are going back in there, you can bet your sweet bippy on that.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:07 pm

CH47A wrote:
Having to be in a bit of a hurry I am looking to Reuters for help right now on what the CIC stated as to intention and so let me offer that link:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/facing ... 021-08-20/

I suppose that military requirements to uphold the promise of getting all U.S. citizens out will be increased more than a tad.

But before I have to move on I want to place a note here (to myself as well) to dig into that report the Reuters folks say they know about that some embassy folks were warning somebody that trouble was around the corner if certain methods of operation were implemented to meet the CIC instructions to have all folks out by August 31st of this year. If the folks at that embassy did warn of possible trouble and those warnings were ignored, that's trouble for some folks.

My goodness, what a mess this is!


Your last sentence can apply to just about the last seven centuries in AFG, except for a brief period of relative stability in the 1950s and 60s:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a ... fghanistan
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:10 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Aesma wrote:

Aside from the drones maybe, there is nothing fancy.

Unlike other times when things like Stingers were lost...


You don't think the blackhawks are fancy? :sarcasm:


Aesma wrote:

OK, let's say you're the president now, from this minute. What do you do ? Do you send 20000 men back, yes or no ? Do you carpet bomb Kabul, maybe, killing countless civilians ?


I tell the truth to the media and get my people and anyone else I said I would out. It's already a total debacle but his words and his actions especially not leaving Camp David were pretty bad and he made it worse with his statements. This isn't me saying it. Most if not all of the MSM has. He has intel that said this could happen and he ignored it.


Given Camp David is fully equipped for any POTUS to conduct regular operations, that really seems immaterial.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:19 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
You don't think the blackhawks are fancy? :sarcasm:


It's all relative, they're transport helicopters. The couple I've seen didn't have rotor blades and seemed in a sorry state.

NIKV69 wrote:
I tell the truth to the media and get my people and anyone else I said I would out. It's already a total debacle but his words and his actions especially not leaving Camp David were pretty bad and he made it worse with his statements. This isn't me saying it. Most if not all of the MSM has. He has intel that said this could happen and he ignored it.


You should be good with his latest statement, then.
 
johns624
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:38 pm

Aesma wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
You don't think the blackhawks are fancy? :sarcasm:


It's all relative, they're transport helicopters. The couple I've seen didn't have rotor blades and seemed in a sorry state.

I agree. Helicopters are also very maintenance-intensive. They won't be flyable for long, if they even are now. Especially since they killed a lot of the pilots.
 
Derico
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:50 pm

I don't understand US military-political relations. But sorry, it seems like a massively corrupt cesspool if I am getting it straight.

We have a situation where a coalition of nations that suffered what, over 7000 fallen, spent almost 1.5 trillion USD, and a total of 20 years, all to train a force that their own intelligence agencies knew would FAIL within months of pulling out? Let me repeat that in another way: the people in the know knew all along that the chance of failure was certain, and nothing was done for 20 years, and ostensibly nothing would have been done had the current government continued the policy? WHAT?

I decide to build an apartment complex very near where a river flows into the open sea, in a patch of land that remained empty for as long as locals remember. The land is prone to severe tidal flows, and flash flooding from the river in the rainy season. It's also a ground that is nothing but silt and sand 50% water. The engineers and hydrologists I hire tell me no problem let's build the thing, but that I will need to have massive pumps in place all around the structure, and you will need a massive sea wall, and you will need to build special foundations and columns that will need to be inspected every 2 years for corrosion. They tell me if we do that for 5 years eventually the structure and area will stabilize. We go ahead, but later they tell me it will need 10 years. Then 15. Then 20. At that point I say I'm out, I'm just pouring money here for nothing. The "experts" tell me the building will collapse within 12 months without the maintenance to the sea wall, columns, and pumps. I say fine, the people must move out then. They have 6 months before it becomes dangerous to stay there.

The building falls within 2 weeks. Many perish. Then it turns out that secretly the engineers and hydrologists knew all along, from 20 years ago, that this never had any hope. I think many people would spend their much of their lives in prison for that, including me.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 14753
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:15 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
In the Army Times article I posted above, British and French special forces are driving around Kabul picking up their citizens.

We are not although we certainly have the same skill sets. If I had to wager, we have an agreement with the Taliban not to. Both sides are showing a remarkable fire discipline. Let's hope it holds.


The French special forces in question are from the RAID, similar to SWAT. They're police not military (maybe a way to garner less opposition). Only 11 men were there to escort 350 people out of the French embassy (mainly Afghan citizens, but still a significant amount of French people including the ambassador). The key was indeed negotiations with the Taliban.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:21 pm

Derico wrote:
I don't understand US military-political relations. But sorry, it seems like a massively corrupt cesspool if I am getting it straight.

We have a situation where a coalition of nations that suffered what, over 7000 fallen, spent almost 1.5 trillion USD, and a total of 20 years, all to train a force that their own intelligence agencies knew would FAIL within months of pulling out? Let me repeat that in another way: the people in the know knew all along that the chance of failure was certain, and nothing was done for 20 years, and ostensibly nothing would have been done had the current government continued the policy? WHAT?

I decide to build an apartment complex very near where a river flows into the open sea, in a patch of land that remained empty for as long as locals remember. The land is prone to severe tidal flows, and flash flooding from the river in the rainy season. It's also a ground that is nothing but silt and sand 50% water. The engineers and hydrologists I hire tell me no problem let's build the thing, but that I will need to have massive pumps in place all around the structure, and you will need a massive sea wall, and you will need to build special foundations and columns that will need to be inspected every 2 years for corrosion. They tell me if we do that for 5 years eventually the structure and area will stabilize. We go ahead, but later they tell me it will need 10 years. Then 15. Then 20. At that point I say I'm out, I'm just pouring money here for nothing. The "experts" tell me the building will collapse within 12 months without the maintenance to the sea wall, columns, and pumps. I say fine, the people must move out then. They have 6 months before it becomes dangerous to stay there.

The building falls within 2 weeks. Many perish. Then it turns out that secretly the engineers and hydrologists knew all along, from 20 years ago, that this never had any hope. I think many people would spend their much of their lives in prison for that, including me.


Mission creep and operational silo thinking can create a pretty complex set of actions at cross purposes. Conservative policy analyst Tom Nichols has been a real voice of reason trying to explain your ‘what?’ questions:

https://twitter.com/radiofreetom/status ... 67106?s=21

https://twitter.com/radiofreetom/status ... 11849?s=21

https://twitter.com/radiofreetom/status ... 37794?s=21
 
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par13del
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:47 pm

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
par13del wrote:
Why exactly do we believe that Pakistan will be destabilized by Afghanistan, I could see the militancy increasing in Kashmir with India, but what exactly would be the beef between Pakistan and the Taliban?


Kashmir has as much to do with this as the crisis in Burma. It is not relevant to the thread. Though bringing yet another geopolitical conflict to the foothills of India and increasing terrorism globally (along with a new migrants crisis) is.

If the fear of the Taliban is spreading militancy throughout the region, the Kashmir is already there, militancy usually looks for a source of existing conflict, that is the main item I see between the Taliban and Pakistan. The Taliban were in charge before and spent more time destroying historical site and getting the people in line versus working on the Durand line.
But as with all things, time will tell.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:52 pm

It doesn't need to be worked on, there are Talibans on both sides. If they want "conquest" they need to wade into other Pakistani regions.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:19 pm

Aesma wrote:
You should be good with his latest statement, then.


Which? Most of of the ones I am hearing are not jiving with what is going on over there.
 
aerosreenivas
Posts: 206
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:55 am

The 'Fallout Of Taliban Rule' in Afghanistan is that there are approx 150 Indians being kidnapped by Taliban. All of them were waiting outside the Kharzai Airport in Kabul.

Here is the link to this latest news. https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/150-peo ... _topscroll

I hope the kidnapped people will be allowed to return back to India safely.
 
avier
Posts: 1309
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:24 am

^So Taliban didn't Kidnap the 150 odd Indians, but asked them questions and then escorted them so they could safely get to the airport.
Per an Afghan journo
https://twitter.com/MuslimShirzad/statu ... 91657?s=19
 
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BawliBooch
Posts: 1599
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 4:24 am

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:50 am

HAWK21M wrote:
Why will the world recognize the Taliban.
Im sure the Northern Alliance will be propped up in counter soon

That is not what we were talking about. China will invest because it is in their interest to do so. The huge rare earths deposits in Afghanistan will be one draw. It will enable China to retain its dominance and pricing power in this sector. Russia also has reasons to join this move into Afghanistan. In the context of Afghan people, thats the best case scenario after the American withdrawal. The Chinese+Russians will hopefully be able temper the Taliban' extremism.

IMO, America needed to withdraw troops, but it should recognise the Taliban and attempt to build bridges. 2 reasons - counter the Russians/Chinese and also to ensure that Afghanistan does not again become a safe haven for Terrorist groups like al Qaeda and ISIS.

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
The border between the two countries is virtually non-existent and millions of Afghanis live in Pakistan with crossings taking place as if the border did not exist. It would be nearly impossible to halt the advance of the Taliban into Pakistan, militarily, or just through the exchange on ideas and radicalism. Pakistan could fall into a quasi-state of civil war soon.

if unchecked, the Afghan Taliban will certainly provide military and moral support to their Pashtun brethren across the border in Pakistan.

This is another reason, that US and Western democracies must continue to engage with both the Taliban and the Pakistani military establishment.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:07 am

par13del wrote:
If the fear of the Taliban is spreading militancy throughout the region, the Kashmir is already there, militancy usually looks for a source of existing conflict, that is the main item I see between the Taliban and Pakistan. The Taliban were in charge before and spent more time destroying historical site and getting the people in line versus working on the Durand line.
But as with all things, time will tell.


Taliban has done some horrible things but they have never gotten involved in the Kashmir conflict. The Indians have tried to draw a connection between Taliban and Kashmir as a way to get international support for their campaign against Kashmiris.

In Taliban-I era, their control was restricted to the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan with the Northern Areas remaining out of Kabul's control. The Northern Alliance, even before 2001, received significant support from external forces whose interests were served by keeping Afghanistan on a boil.

This time Taliban-II, they have control over all of Afghanistan. That could well change! But for now, the Taliban-II are definitely trying to build a coalition involving all sub-nationalities in the new Govt. This is a significant departure from the last version.

This could change! The Northern Tribes may well rise in revolt. India/Iran etc may yet disrupt a consensus from emerging by providing weapons and cash to trigger a insurgency. Keeping the Pak-Afghan border boiling is one way to divert Pakistani troops away from the Indian border.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:50 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
HAWK21M wrote:
Why will the world recognize the Taliban.
Im sure the Northern Alliance will be propped up in counter soon

That is not what we were talking about. China will invest because it is in their interest to do so. The huge rare earths deposits in Afghanistan will be one draw. It will enable China to retain its dominance and pricing power in this sector. Russia also has reasons to join this move into Afghanistan. In the context of Afghan people, thats the best case scenario after the American withdrawal. The Chinese+Russians will hopefully be able temper the Taliban' extremism.

IMO, America needed to withdraw troops, but it should recognise the Taliban and attempt to build bridges. 2 reasons - counter the Russians/Chinese and also to ensure that Afghanistan does not again become a safe haven for Terrorist groups like al Qaeda and ISIS.

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
The border between the two countries is virtually non-existent and millions of Afghanis live in Pakistan with crossings taking place as if the border did not exist. It would be nearly impossible to halt the advance of the Taliban into Pakistan, militarily, or just through the exchange on ideas and radicalism. Pakistan could fall into a quasi-state of civil war soon.

if unchecked, the Afghan Taliban will certainly provide military and moral support to their Pashtun brethren across the border in Pakistan.

This is another reason, that US and Western democracies must continue to engage with both the Taliban and the Pakistani military establishment.


We're not at war with Russia and China. We were at war with the Taliban. There is no reason to now ally with the Taliban to "counter" China and Russia, it wouldn't do that anyway, Afghanistan is a poor country where money can be made only after having spent billions, which we won't do if the Taliban are in control. China can take that risk, they have billions to burn, Russia not so much.

As for Pakistan, I also think the opposite, we should drop any pretense with that country and let it decide what it wants. While also making clear that if they start a war with India, we will support India.

Next is dropping Turkey from NATO.
 
petertenthije
Posts: 4298
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:10 pm

Aesma wrote:
Next is dropping Turkey from NATO.

That’s not likely to happen. They hold the only way in and out of the black sea.
Not to mention being host to mayor US bases such as Incirlik AFB.
They may be unreliable allies, but they are valuable allies (kind a, sort a).
 
johns624
Posts: 4057
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:06 pm

Aesma wrote:
As for Pakistan, I also think the opposite, we should drop any pretense with that country and let it decide what it wants. While also making clear that if they start a war with India, we will support India.

Next is dropping Turkey from NATO.
I agree with both statements. We've had a problem for years allying with countries who say the right things but then do what they want. Pakistan and Israel come to mind. Yet, other countries that generally agree with us on issues but have independent opinions, we drop to second line allies. Again, here India and France come to mind. I'd rather ally with countries where you know where they stand, rather than those that just give lip service.
 
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HAWK21M
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:35 pm

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
HAWK21M wrote:
What about the Military equipment and Armour left by the Afghan Army & taken over by the Taliban.
This could be shared to Pak Army & Terrorist Organisations


The border between the two countries is virtually non-existent and millions of Afghanis live in Pakistan with crossings taking place as if the border did not exist. It would be nearly impossible to halt the advance of the Taliban into Pakistan, militarily, or just through the exchange on ideas and radicalism. Pakistan could fall into a quasi-state of civil war soon.


Exactly.....There is no Good & Bad Taiban as per the pakis
After sometime there will be issues regarding the Durand line
Also remember the Northern Alliance is still around
 
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HAWK21M
Posts: 30175
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:37 pm

johns624 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
As for Pakistan, I also think the opposite, we should drop any pretense with that country and let it decide what it wants. While also making clear that if they start a war with India, we will support India.

Next is dropping Turkey from NATO.
I agree with both statements. We've had a problem for years allying with countries who say the right things but then do what they want. Pakistan and Israel come to mind. Yet, other countries that generally agree with us on issues but have independent opinions, we drop to second line allies. Again, here India and France come to mind. I'd rather ally with countries where you know where they stand, rather than those that just give lip service.


Non Democracies & Terror Sponsoring countries on one side
Functional Democracies on the other.
 
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par13del
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:48 pm

Is the resolution of the Durand Line someone's talking point?
The USA and other Western Nations have been in Afghanistan for the last 20 years, the USA and the western nations have friendly relations with Pakistan, the Durand line and its resolution was hardly mentioned, now with the Taliban takeover the Durand Line is becoming a major talking point, I have to assume this is coming from media sources and politicians as well, so is someone out there trying to channel how the next conflict will arise?
The Durand line has been lived with by both sides for generations maybe because they had other fish to fry, is someone trying to initiate a conflict between the two sides so that they remain occupied and no vacuum is left by the withdrawal, versus both sides emerging stronger from this last episode?
 
CH47A
Posts: 144
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:19 am

Jens Stoltenberg: NATO has 'some leverage' with Taliban DW dated this as 20.08.2021

The written text that is shown by Deutsche Welle clearly indicates that it was approved by NATO and when listening that seems also to be the case; Secretary General Stoltenberg is making the statement of a NATO approval of that decision to sign that document with the Taliban --- that agreement.

Although the U.S. made the deal with the Taliban unilaterally, Stoltenberg said NATO "made that decision very well aware of the risks that was clearly communicated."

"We knew that if we left or ended our military mission, there was a risk of the return of Taliban," he said. "But we also knew that the alternative was also a bad and difficult option, and that was to stay in a mission with more NATO troops, with more violence, more fighting, more casualties... We actually faced a very difficult dilemma."


And I am a tad confused about that indication that it was a unilateral decision to sign, but that NATO was in some manner involved.

So I go to the NATO website and the best I can find is from August 17th:

Press briefing on Afghanistan | by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Last updated: 17 Aug. 2021 18:05

The United States agreed with the Taliban last year that US troops would withdraw by May.
And after many rounds of consultations, all Allies agreed to follow the US decision.
Ending our military mission was not easy.
We were faced with a serious dilemma.
Either leave, and risk seeing the Taliban regain control.
Or stay, and risk renewed attacks, and an open-ended combat mission.

We never intended to stay in Afghanistan forever.
Over the past few years, from over 100,000 troops we went down to less than 10,000 – and now to zero.
But what we have seen in the last few weeks was a military and political collapse at a speed which had not been anticipated.
Parts of the Afghan security forces fought bravely.
But they were unable to secure the country.
Because ultimately, the Afghan political leadership failed to stand up to the Taliban and to achieve the peaceful solution that Afghans desperately wanted.
This failure of Afghan leadership led to the tragedy we are witnessing today.


Note: Up there I'm keeping the format of the NATO web page.

So NATO folks agreed to fall in line with that main idea to get the heck out, but we hear the present U.S. administration folks placing blame only on the former administration. (?) Why no reference to a whole bunch of other folks in very high offices in other nations and in at least one international organization that indicate support.

This whole thing just gets stinkier and stinkier. This kind of reminds me of so many years ago when we had that defecate burning at some of our field units and if you were unlucky to have the wind aim that smell at your bird during pre-flight you - - - well, you cursed about everyone and their brother. Getting a sense of the same stink. Well, worse. Actually, it was done at some airfields that were more than just temporary field sites. I seem to remember that burning duty was given out to some folks as part of an Article 15. But if you got downwind of that it was the Good Lord dishing out an Article 15 aimed at you and your crew. Kind of like at Fort Rucker when I know the Good Lord moved the Earth up a few feet during an auto-rotation exercise. I understand civilians aren't allowed to do an auto-rotation all the way to solid ground. Well, unless it is really because of an engine shutdown. Uh oh, I'm sliding off-topic. Sorry.

Getting back on topic, CNBC has this highlighted as the second of three "Key Points" of Secretary General Stoltenberg's press briefing:

There are “serious and hard questions” to be asked about how the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan was executed, he said.


NATO is ‘working 24/7’ to get as many people out of Afghanistan as possible, its chief says Published Sat, Aug 21 20215:46 AM EDT Updated Sat, Aug 21 20216:10 AM EDT

A
nd another quote from their assessment of his press briefing is this:

Stoltenberg said NATO — a 30-member military alliance — made a “very difficult and hard choice” when deciding to withdraw those troops, a move that has been branded an abandonment by some observers.


Frankly, I have not been too smart, of course, and did not give any thought to who else had agreed to that agreement. It was not just the former U.S. administration.

By the way, Aaron747, that comment about 700 years was a very good observation, except for a slight bit of a time thingy:

"Into the Land of Bones: Alexander the Great in Afghanistan"
 
bennett123
Posts: 10869
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 22, 2021 8:02 am

IMO, the key to this whole situation is that the west has been in Afghanistan for 20 years.

As soon as the West pulled out, the Taliban took over.

Clearly the only way to prevent the Taliban running Afghanistan is for the West to maintain a substancial military presence forever.

I see no enthusiasm for doing so.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 20120
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:21 am

bennett123 wrote:
IMO, the key to this whole situation is that the west has been in Afghanistan for 20 years.

As soon as the West pulled out, the Taliban took over.

Clearly the only way to prevent the Taliban running Afghanistan is for the West to maintain a substancial military presence forever.

I see no enthusiasm for doing so.


Any hope the West had of ever leaving Afghanistan and the Taliban not immediately reemerging, rested with the Afghan Army and Police. In other words, there was no chance.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 14753
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:43 am

CH47A wrote:
Jens Stoltenberg: NATO has 'some leverage' with Taliban DW dated this as 20.08.2021

The written text that is shown by Deutsche Welle clearly indicates that it was approved by NATO and when listening that seems also to be the case; Secretary General Stoltenberg is making the statement of a NATO approval of that decision to sign that document with the Taliban --- that agreement.

Although the U.S. made the deal with the Taliban unilaterally, Stoltenberg said NATO "made that decision very well aware of the risks that was clearly communicated."

"We knew that if we left or ended our military mission, there was a risk of the return of Taliban," he said. "But we also knew that the alternative was also a bad and difficult option, and that was to stay in a mission with more NATO troops, with more violence, more fighting, more casualties... We actually faced a very difficult dilemma."


And I am a tad confused about that indication that it was a unilateral decision to sign, but that NATO was in some manner involved.
y high offices in other nations and in at least one international organization that indicate support.


NATO without the US doesn't exist, that's easy to understand. Notice how the Supreme Allied Commander Europe is always an American ? Also, who was there left fighting anyway ? I know the UK was out, France was out, these are the two main european militaries. If only the US was left, with some NATO support, then it was always going to be a US decision, the others had made that decision long ago.
 
CH47A
Posts: 144
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2010 4:06 pm

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 22, 2021 11:16 am

Using Wikipedia for this information I have New Zealand, Australia, Germany, Italy, and Poland with armed forces personnel in Afghanistan at the beginning of 2021, along with the U.S. troops. I am not sure I fully grasp the idea of "some NATO support" as it seems to be presented in that post as being of no significance. Maybe I am taking that sentence and context in the wrong way. I apologize if I am. Troops that show the flag of a nation in any AO is of significance.

The idea that NATO members agreeing with the idea to end having troops in that AO isn't such a big deal because the U.S. has some sort of special role in NATO . . . well, I have a difficulty grasping the idea of that sort of belittling of the troops of other nations in the AO. Well, again, I could be reading that wrong. Sorry, if I am.

I suppose I would have to study if NATO has always fallen in line with U.S. thinking through the many years of the existence of NATO. They never publicly disagreed with U.S. thinking? I don't know.

There's a respect factor here --- respect for even one active duty soldier in an AO, no matter from what nation. Five other nations with troops in that AO at the beginning of 2021. That is a significant factor in diplomatic circles, even if it is not with the general public.

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