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LCDFlight
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:29 pm

johns624 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

Why are we there anyway? Do we have any right to be there?

Why haven't you been asking that for the last 5 years?


I remember shouting at the car radio in 2012 when Petreus stepped down and his replacement was droning on about “I still believe in the mission.” WHAT Mission?!?! But it didn’t do any good..

In a PBS interview, Gen John Allen outlined his plan to draw down forces in 2013, then fully exit and “handover” in 2014. How many of us even remember that this was supposed to happen in 2014? It’s at 7 years late even by the theater commander’s own battle plan!
 
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casinterest
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:07 pm

chimborazo wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Well all the Hawks should be happy.
Biden just promised to hunt down whoever is responsible, and will give the miltiary the assets they need.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/afg ... index.html

President Biden left the door open for more military assistance in Afghanistan during remarks Thursday following an attack at Kabul airport that killed more than 60 people, including 12 US service members.

"I've instructed the military with whatever they need if they need additional force, I will grant it. But the military, from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the Joint Chiefs, the commanders in the field, have all contacted me one way or another usually by letter saying they subscribe to the mission as designed," Biden said during remarks from White House.


Does he not understand the meaning of “suicide bomber”…?

So they won’t be hunting the direct perpetrators down… how are they going to investigate who organised it when they won’t have people in-country? For all the wealth of remote surveillance available to the USA, it takes people on the ground handing over $$$ to get the information required.

There will be plenty of people in country. You have never heard about the CIA/NSA or special forces?
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:36 pm

JJJ wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Leon Panetta was telling CNN tonight that we'll have to 'go back into Afghanistan to get ISIS'. I wish these hawks who got us into this mess would keep their traps shut until the current evac and drawdown op is completed.

https://www.news18.com/news/world/afgha ... 32307.html


All they have to do now is train the Taliban and get them billions in the latest gear.

What could go wrong?


If there was only a like button!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well Taliban will be busy now. They wanted the country. Now deal with it!!!!
 
chimborazo
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:24 pm

casinterest wrote:
chimborazo wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Well all the Hawks should be happy.
Biden just promised to hunt down whoever is responsible, and will give the miltiary the assets they need.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/afg ... index.html



Does he not understand the meaning of “suicide bomber”…?

So they won’t be hunting the direct perpetrators down… how are they going to investigate who organised it when they won’t have people in-country? For all the wealth of remote surveillance available to the USA, it takes people on the ground handing over $$$ to get the information required.

There will be plenty of people in country. You have never heard about the CIA/NSA or special forces?


Yep. Of course I have… was a bit tongue in cheek. USA are “not” withdrawing from Afghanistan despite what we are being told and seeing… just that the number of operatives will be reduced from thousands to hundred.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:38 pm

And in one of those ironies we followers of history revel in, Taliban may be wanting international partners including the US, EU, Russia, China, Pakistan etc. Odder things have happened!
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:59 am

US military has conducted a retaliatory drone strike against ISIS-K in response to the Kabul suicide event.

The unmanned airstrike occurred in the Nangahar Province of Afghanistan. The strike killed one individual and spokesman Navy Capt. William Urban said they knew of no civilian casualties.

It wasn’t clear if that individual was involved specifically in the Thursday suicide blast outside the gates of the Kabul airport, where crowds of Afghans were desperately trying to get in as part of the ongoing evacuation from the country after the Taliban’s rapid takeover.


https://www.wfla.com/news/international ... et-killed/
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:32 am

Another side of what has gone wrong in AFG operations since the mid-2000s: opium production has skyrocketed, despite various efforts by the US. Now the Taliban is the primary beneficiary of narco trafficking.

After invading Afghanistan in 2001, the US set out to suppress opium poppy cultivation in order to reduce the production of heroin and other opiates. The idea was that by eradicating crops directly and encouraging alternatives, poppy cultivation would decrease, prices would increase, and opiate consumption at home would be reduced. This policy was conceived both as an important battle front in America’s "War on Drugs" and as a way to undermine a major source of Taliban funding.

However, despite spending an estimated $8.6 billion to stamp it out, poppy cultivation has grown significantly over the last 20 years, especially in poorer areas where insurgencies were more widespread. By 2014, Afghanistan was producing three times as much opium poppy as it did in 2000. Today, Afghanistan is by far the world’s largest opium producer, capturing 85% (!) of global supply according to the UN.


https://ianbremmer.bulletin.com/212455274231080
 
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Aesma
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:20 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
And in one of those ironies we followers of history revel in, Taliban may be wanting international partners including the US, EU, Russia, China, Pakistan etc. Odder things have happened!


What they will want is international aid, or famine will happen soon. You don't eat heroin.

There is no way the West at least will "partner" with them unless they've become very tame and form a government similar to let's say Iran.

Apparently forming a government is proving difficult, with various factions vying for power, so we shall see.

Meanwhile there is a summit in Baghdad, some good might come out of this mess after all : https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/mac ... fears-over

If there is more cooperation between countries in the region, including Shia and Shiite dominated one, peace and stability has a better chance. With of course terrorists wanting none of that, but one way to stamp on terrorism is to show regular people that there is another way, that they shouldn't support the violence.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:22 am

Aaron747 wrote:
US military has conducted a retaliatory drone strike against ISIS-K in response to the Kabul suicide event.

The unmanned airstrike occurred in the Nangahar Province of Afghanistan. The strike killed one individual and spokesman Navy Capt. William Urban said they knew of no civilian casualties.

It wasn’t clear if that individual was involved specifically in the Thursday suicide blast outside the gates of the Kabul airport, where crowds of Afghans were desperately trying to get in as part of the ongoing evacuation from the country after the Taliban’s rapid takeover.


https://www.wfla.com/news/international ... et-killed/


There will be a supreme, if bloody, irony in all of this.
Taliban is now at the crossroads. They can become "softer" on their core islamic message (or rather enforcement thereof). Not suppress women's rights as obviously and blatantly, for instance. That might win them some acceptance internationally as a legitimate power. (not a good analogy, but Soviet Russia/USSR was a pariah par excellence, until post-Versailles Germany, seeking some breakthrough, agreed to recognize it. Before that, Soviets were a bunch of bloody crazies you wouldn't deal with, no matter what).

Same process will undermine credibility of Taliban membership among core fighters, who did expect to see the victory, where they could run the place the way they liked -- multiple obedient wives, a lot of rights to subjugate others, all in the name of the religion. That's where crazier nutters (e.g. ISIS) can find good recruitment grounds...

Maybe Taliban will be able to navigate between these Scylla and Charybdis. Time will tell.
 
bennett123
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 29, 2021 3:24 pm

IMO, one big issue is being overlooked.

The US/UK and others were in Afghanistan for 20 years.

A substancial and comparatively well equipped Afghan National Army was created.

As soon as the western military left, it fell apart.

At some point, western military forces will go into another country, we need to identify why this disaster happened, or we will repeat it.

Some have suggested that they were trained to fight like a western army, (with substancial air support).

In this case, we have three options;

1. Provide substancial local air power.
2. Maintain indefinite western airpower, either with western military personal or contractors, (as the UK did in Saudi)
3. Train the local army to operate with only limited air support. If they are fighting a Taliban type enemy, who also lack air power.
 
JJJ
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 29, 2021 4:10 pm

bennett123 wrote:

At some point, western military forces will go into another country, we need to identify why this disaster happened, or we will repeat it.


There are many reasons, but a big part of it was refusing to ackowledge what was actually happening on the ground.

I liked this piece very much, it's a longish read, but worth it.

The War in Afghanistan Is What Happens When McKinsey Types Run Everything
An Afghan General blames defense contractors for the collapse of the Afghan army. A government inspector blames the "the pervasiveness of overoptimism" by U.S. generals. It's all that, and more.
https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/the- ... at-happens
 
johns624
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:11 pm

JJJ wrote:
I liked this piece very much, it's a longish read, but worth it.

The War in Afghanistan Is What Happens When McKinsey Types Run Everything
An Afghan General blames defense contractors for the collapse of the Afghan army. A government inspector blames the "the pervasiveness of overoptimism" by U.S. generals. It's all that, and more.
https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/the- ... at-happens
Very interesting.
 
bennett123
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:18 pm

JJJ wrote:
bennett123 wrote:

At some point, western military forces will go into another country, we need to identify why this disaster happened, or we will repeat it.


There are many reasons, but a big part of it was refusing to ackowledge what was actually happening on the ground.

I liked this piece very much, it's a longish read, but worth it.

The War in Afghanistan Is What Happens When McKinsey Types Run Everything
An Afghan General blames defense contractors for the collapse of the Afghan army. A government inspector blames the "the pervasiveness of overoptimism" by U.S. generals. It's all that, and more.
https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/the- ... at-happens


Following up on your points.

I have little experience beyond Europe. So here goes.

I went to Egypt back in 2006. In Cairo, most women either wore western dress or wore a headscarf. Full face covering was rare. In Siwa, full face covering was universal and most transport was donkey carts. Depending if you visited Cairo or Siwa your conclusions would be totally different.

I went to Indonesia in 2019. You could travel from the airport downtown and it was like Manhattan. Our hotel was the other way from the airport and people were living in shacks. Same situation, you go downtown and get one impression, but go the other way and it is totally different.

Unless you really explore the country you are dealing with, this type of FU is inevitable.

Second point is the old KISS principle. The ANA was going to be facing the Taliban, not the Red Army. So keep the technology basic.
 
travaz
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:51 pm

JJJ wrote:
bennett123 wrote:

At some point, western military forces will go into another country, we need to identify why this disaster happened, or we will repeat it.


There are many reasons, but a big part of it was refusing to ackowledge what was actually happening on the ground.

I liked this piece very much, it's a longish read, but worth it.

The War in Afghanistan Is What Happens When McKinsey Types Run Everything
An Afghan General blames defense contractors for the collapse of the Afghan army. A government inspector blames the "the pervasiveness of overoptimism" by U.S. generals. It's all that, and more.
https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/the- ... at-happens

Wow home run! This article points out so many things that many of us have heard whispered by Service members.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:58 pm

Withdrawal from Afghanistan was required.

But perhaps America should consider a "Forward Policy" - Forward deployment of Airborne Assets surrounding and containing Taliban areas. Bases in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and UAE. Iran wont allow US assets to be deployed on its soil, but perhaps the Iranians can be incentivised to contain Taliban from the West. Drones, High altitude Bombers, Electronic Warfare and Recon aircraft flying over Afghanistan keeping a 24/7 watch.

This kind of containment will be cheaper and entail less risk to Western Allies while achieving the ultimate goal of ensuring that the Taliban are contained within the Durand Line and that its territory is not used as a safe haven by terrorists.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Mon Aug 30, 2021 7:39 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Withdrawal from Afghanistan was required.

But perhaps America should consider a "Forward Policy" - Forward deployment of Airborne Assets surrounding and containing Taliban areas. Bases in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and UAE. Iran wont allow US assets to be deployed on its soil, but perhaps the Iranians can be incentivised to contain Taliban from the West. Drones, High altitude Bombers, Electronic Warfare and Recon aircraft flying over Afghanistan keeping a 24/7 watch.

This kind of containment will be cheaper and entail less risk to Western Allies while achieving the ultimate goal of ensuring that the Taliban are contained within the Durand Line and that its territory is not used as a safe haven by terrorists.


Or you can do "geopolotics on the cheap".
If you inflame fundamentalist rhetoric, on both sides of Iran-Afghanistan border, strongly enough -- they'll not get around to cooperate very easily. Fundamentalist Shias and fundamentalist Sunnis are not the best bedfellows (as in "hate each other like poison"). Which means they will contain each other minimum, and maybe fight. So you don't worry too much.
Uzbekistan is already gearing up to contain threat from the south, and small targeted military support can go a long way there (Uzbekistan military is relatively well-trained and motivated, with plenty of Soviet arms in good shape. They might need a bit of modern tech here and there, and might even appreciate getting it).
Turkmenistan and Tajikistan are more problematic -- longer and less defensible borders, governments less obvious to invest in defense. Tajikistan has defense treaties with Russia, so on the one hand, Russia should protect it (whether it can, and will -- is a very good question). Turkmenistan is staunchly isolationist (probably the only country in the world, having no visa-free travel with anyone on Earth), but despite its authoritarian quirks, it's a secular government, and faced with existential threat from religious fundamentalists, it might look for military support elsewhere. What capability does their military have -- somebody more knowledgeable should chime in.

Now, the Durand line. Actually, if somebody wanted to create difficulties to the China-Pakistan axis, isn't it most natural to let Taliban dig under this fixture? I mean, any Afghan government, for the last hundred years or so, is more or less openly questioning validity of that border, and "fairness" of Afghanistan remaining land-locked, despite it's "historical rights" to access the sea. Now, for the first time in decades, Afghanistan will have a government that has means of outward expansion (gotta deploy all of those high-adrenaline fellas somewhere, and Americans have left enough guns to fight a hell of a war...)
 
GDB
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:33 am

JJJ wrote:
bennett123 wrote:

At some point, western military forces will go into another country, we need to identify why this disaster happened, or we will repeat it.


There are many reasons, but a big part of it was refusing to ackowledge what was actually happening on the ground.

I liked this piece very much, it's a longish read, but worth it.

The War in Afghanistan Is What Happens When McKinsey Types Run Everything
An Afghan General blames defense contractors for the collapse of the Afghan army. A government inspector blames the "the pervasiveness of overoptimism" by U.S. generals. It's all that, and more.
https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/the- ... at-happens


That was a most impressive by Mr Stoller which sadly rang all too true.
Reminds me of one entry in a series of dairies published by author, ex journalist who covered wars in SE Asia in the 70's and MP for Sunderland South 1987-2010, Chris Mullin, talking to a constituent, a British Army officer, back from deployment who stated of the US command 'if it is not on a power point presentation, it is not happening'.
Beyond the tragic and shaming situation in Afghanistan, the article seems to indicate why so much military kit is so expensive not just to buy but to maintain.
(While we are at it, maybe a total ban on 'contractors' who are what we used to call 'Mercenaries' being used officially in any deployment).
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:33 am

Phosphorus wrote:
Or you can do "geopolotics on the cheap".
If you inflame fundamentalist rhetoric, on both sides of Iran-Afghanistan border, strongly enough -- they'll not get around to cooperate very easily. Fundamentalist Shias and fundamentalist Sunnis are not the best bedfellows (as in "hate each other like poison"). Which means they will contain each other minimum, and maybe fight. So you don't worry too much.
Uzbekistan is already gearing up to contain threat from the south, and small targeted military support can go a long way there (Uzbekistan military is relatively well-trained and motivated, with plenty of Soviet arms in good shape. They might need a bit of modern tech here and there, and might even appreciate getting it).


Not sure if you are being sarcastic there. But you have outlined the classic strategies of colonial powers for the past 4 centuries. 'Divide and Rule' and Outsourcing wars to local terrorists or state/non-state players. How has that worked in the last 50 years? Playing the Sunni-Shia divide in the Middle East contributed to the Iran-Iraq war which was perhaps the point then. But that strategy only pushed Iraq (and Iran) to the brink in different ways, with unintended consequences hurting Western interests.

To get the Soviets out of Afghanistan, the United States setup and supplied the Mujahideen to fight. Did this outsourcing work? One part of the Mujahideen went on to form the Taliban and many foreign Mujahideen later ended up using US supplied weapons to bomb US Embassies and hijacking planes on 9/11.

Neighboring countries like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan can provide some boots on the ground for limited area control. But there is no alternative to having own assets in the fight. I suggested using own airborne assets and special forces as a minimum risk option for the Western Allies.


I dont agree that Afghanistan can be used as a wedge to drive a wedge between Pakistan and China. Pakistan is too heavily integrated with China to try that approach now. China is going to build bridges with the Taliban . There are huge gains for them in doing so -

- Cornering Afghanistan's Rare-earths resources and thus retaining their pricing power in this area.
- Further strengthening their BRI project. Linking Gwadar port in Pakistan (where they have a base) to Iran via Afghanistan and thence to Europe. The Link will be complete.
- You cannot see Afghanistan in isolation. The Chinese moves in Ladakh are related to this. The Chinese are clearly pushing the LAC (Line of Actual Control) from the 1959 line to the 1847 line when the British unilaterally pushed the 'border' to include Aksai Chin. The pre 1847 border between China and India in this area was upto the Karakoram Range. If the Chinese manage to push the Indians to this pre 1847 line in the North, it opens up the possibility of building a new all-weather alignment for the highway linking Xinjiang with Pakistan via Depsang. The Chinese moves to push into Pangong and Demchok in Southern Ladakh is also interesting in this context as this would allow a direct link between Ngari in Tibet with Pakistan via Depsang. Basically, the Chinese are reviving the old Silk Road route which was cut off when the British colonial govt unilaterally drew 2 lines - McMahon Line between India and China and Durand Line between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

China has a lot to gain from buying over the Taliban. A complete military and diplomatic disengagement will spell disaster for the West. It is in US interest to remain engaged with the Taliban both Diplomatically and Militarily. You could argue about the extent of this engagement, but we must stay engaged!
 
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casinterest
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:50 pm

And it is done. The US has left Afghanistan Aug 31, 2021.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/30/politics ... index.html

The last US military planes left Afghanistan, Commander of US Central Command, Gen. Frank McKenzie announced Monday at the Pentagon. The US departure marks the end of a fraught, chaotic and bloody exit from the United States' longest war.

The departure marks the first time in nearly two decades that the US and its allies have not had troops on the ground in Afghanistan and -- after $2 trillion in spending and nearly 2,000 US troops killed in action -- the pullout raises questions about the utility of a war that saw the service of parents and then their grown children.
A senior State Department official said Monday that the State Department will not have civilians on the ground once the US military leaves Afghanistan. "We are not going to have civilians on the ground once the military has left," they said.


Now we will see what the future brings.

Will The Taliban fail spectacularly in the next 5 years?
Will the rest of the world pay a price?
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:01 pm

Taliban guard says last US planes have flown out of Kabul

https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan- ... 85bbde8b5e

The Long Afghan/US Nightmare is over.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:16 pm

Didn't realize we had a Iron Dome unit there but it makes sense. The Russian nightmare, then the US's . I hope the Afghan's but I doubt it
 
NIKV69
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:50 pm

casinterest wrote:

Will The Taliban fail spectacularly in the next 5 years?


They triumphed in Afghanistan after 20 years so I am going to say No to your question.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:12 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Will The Taliban fail spectacularly in the next 5 years?


They triumphed in Afghanistan after 20 years so I am going to say No to your question.



Yes, but they triumphed by lies. They now have to rule, and Afghanistan is full of people that will push back.
 
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par13del
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:26 pm

casinterest wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Will The Taliban fail spectacularly in the next 5 years?


They triumphed in Afghanistan after 20 years so I am going to say No to your question.



Yes, but they triumphed by lies. They now have to rule, and Afghanistan is full of people that will push back.

Which people, those who left, or are you thinking they just allowed the Taliban to walk in and take over because their plan is to launch an insurgency? If so they should have taken a lot of the weapons rather than let the Taliban take them...
 
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casinterest
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:13 am

par13del wrote:
casinterest wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:

They triumphed in Afghanistan after 20 years so I am going to say No to your question.



Yes, but they triumphed by lies. They now have to rule, and Afghanistan is full of people that will push back.

Which people, those who left, or are you thinking they just allowed the Taliban to walk in and take over because their plan is to launch an insurgency? If so they should have taken a lot of the weapons rather than let the Taliban take them...



Time has shown that Tribes in Afghanistan tend to unite when needed, We will have to see what happens over the next 5 years.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:04 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
Or you can do "geopolotics on the cheap".
If you inflame fundamentalist rhetoric, on both sides of Iran-Afghanistan border, strongly enough -- they'll not get around to cooperate very easily. Fundamentalist Shias and fundamentalist Sunnis are not the best bedfellows (as in "hate each other like poison"). Which means they will contain each other minimum, and maybe fight. So you don't worry too much.
Uzbekistan is already gearing up to contain threat from the south, and small targeted military support can go a long way there (Uzbekistan military is relatively well-trained and motivated, with plenty of Soviet arms in good shape. They might need a bit of modern tech here and there, and might even appreciate getting it).


Not sure if you are being sarcastic there. But you have outlined the classic strategies of colonial powers for the past 4 centuries. 'Divide and Rule' and Outsourcing wars to local terrorists or state/non-state players. How has that worked in the last 50 years? Playing the Sunni-Shia divide in the Middle East contributed to the Iran-Iraq war which was perhaps the point then. But that strategy only pushed Iraq (and Iran) to the brink in different ways, with unintended consequences hurting Western interests.

To get the Soviets out of Afghanistan, the United States setup and supplied the Mujahideen to fight. Did this outsourcing work? One part of the Mujahideen went on to form the Taliban and many foreign Mujahideen later ended up using US supplied weapons to bomb US Embassies and hijacking planes on 9/11.

Neighboring countries like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan can provide some boots on the ground for limited area control. But there is no alternative to having own assets in the fight. I suggested using own airborne assets and special forces as a minimum risk option for the Western Allies.


I dont agree that Afghanistan can be used as a wedge to drive a wedge between Pakistan and China. Pakistan is too heavily integrated with China to try that approach now. China is going to build bridges with the Taliban . There are huge gains for them in doing so -

- Cornering Afghanistan's Rare-earths resources and thus retaining their pricing power in this area.
- Further strengthening their BRI project. Linking Gwadar port in Pakistan (where they have a base) to Iran via Afghanistan and thence to Europe. The Link will be complete.
- You cannot see Afghanistan in isolation. The Chinese moves in Ladakh are related to this. The Chinese are clearly pushing the LAC (Line of Actual Control) from the 1959 line to the 1847 line when the British unilaterally pushed the 'border' to include Aksai Chin. The pre 1847 border between China and India in this area was upto the Karakoram Range. If the Chinese manage to push the Indians to this pre 1847 line in the North, it opens up the possibility of building a new all-weather alignment for the highway linking Xinjiang with Pakistan via Depsang. The Chinese moves to push into Pangong and Demchok in Southern Ladakh is also interesting in this context as this would allow a direct link between Ngari in Tibet with Pakistan via Depsang. Basically, the Chinese are reviving the old Silk Road route which was cut off when the British colonial govt unilaterally drew 2 lines - McMahon Line between India and China and Durand Line between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

China has a lot to gain from buying over the Taliban. A complete military and diplomatic disengagement will spell disaster for the West. It is in US interest to remain engaged with the Taliban both Diplomatically and Militarily. You could argue about the extent of this engagement, but we must stay engaged!

No sarcasm, just hypothesing. (One would need to be more invested into this situation, to afford a decently sarcastic approach). Basically, 20 years and (they say) 2 trillion $ was spent on this "rich man's war" against mountain tribes and clans with AK's. Of course, if "money's no object", then you could play with a more complicated solutions, like the one you offered.
However, a continuation of a "rich man's war" would now have to take into account all those countless arms and munitions, left by the USA, and now picked up by Taliban. That would be an expensive threat to counter. (US remembers this from Iran'79. Not exact analogy, but close enough).

Regarding Taliban being unfit for destabilizing China-Pakistan duo -- I don't disagree that it's in Afghanistan's interest to probably attach to that setup. The thing is, Afghanistan is not coherent, and there will be groups that will not profit from this. And external forces to support their cause for a "different way". All of those "left out" warlords, waiting in the wings for their share of the spoils, and ready to form a "Provisional Taliban" or "True Taliban" or "Continuity Taliban" or "South Afghanistan True Defenders Brigade" or something of that nature, as soon as funding arrives, and potential to form a separate fief is real...
 
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Aesma
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:32 am

casinterest wrote:
Will The Taliban fail spectacularly in the next 5 years?
Will the rest of the world pay a price?


First you have to define what a success (and a failure) look like for them.

To me if there are more terror attacks under them than before, it would be a failure.

If people are hungry : failure.
 
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keesje
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:09 am

We lost another war.

Luckely it was far away again. Vietnam, Yemen, Beirut, Iraq, Kurts, Afghanistan.

Maybe time to get honest with ourselves and review our starting points, believes, ideologies and foreign strategies.

We owe it to the victims and chaos we leave behind after another glorious, well planned and profesionally executed withdrawal.

Different approaches should be considered when old school approaches failed.

China will probably pump in railroads, IT infrastructure, schools, powerplants, hospitals, highways as long as the Taliban behave.
Last edited by keesje on Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:22 pm

Just a reminder that statements made factually require sources. Without a source, it's unconfirmed information, and needs to be stated as such. If not, your post may be subject to deletion.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
extender
Posts: 979
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:39 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
Just a reminder that statements made factually require sources. Without a source, it's unconfirmed information, and needs to be stated as such. If not, your post may be subject to deletion.

✈️ atcsundevil


The Taliban flying UH-60s...

Seeing is believing:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1432371405727977472

https://interestingengineering.com/vide ... -by-the-us
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 16483
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:57 pm

extender wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
Just a reminder that statements made factually require sources. Without a source, it's unconfirmed information, and needs to be stated as such. If not, your post may be subject to deletion.

✈️ atcsundevil


The Taliban flying UH-60s...

Seeing is believing:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1432371405727977472

https://interestingengineering.com/vide ... -by-the-us


Not that hard to believe considering how many AFG military were trained by us - some or many of whom crossed over to the Talibs.
 
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par13del
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:04 pm

Unsure why in the second link they say it is an embarrassment to the USA, the equipment was donated to the Afghanistan government, that they ran away and allowed the Taliban access to all their equipment is on them, perhaps they should have used dynamite on them?
In any event, unless all the mechanics fled the country, they will be able to service and fly the helicopters until they run out of parts, obviously, not all folks who joined the Afghan military / police forces were against the Taliban, sleepers in plain sight.
In my opinion, the foreign military forces knew this but declined to report as it would make their report show a massive waste of funds / resources.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:11 pm

Where is the Taliban going to get fuel? No oil reserves, no refineries and no hard currency. It will have to be smuggled in but they will probably trade arms for fuel. Didn't the US do that to get Stinger manpads off the market?

Arms and refugees out fuel and hard currency in. Time for the CIA to get busy shutting this down.

Will be interesting to see how Taliban deals with COVID-19 and medicines which will soon run out.
Last edited by MohawkWeekend on Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:17 pm

par13del wrote:
Unsure why in the second link they say it is an embarrassment to the USA, the equipment was donated to the Afghanistan government, that they ran away and allowed the Taliban access to all their equipment is on them, perhaps they should have used dynamite on them?
In any event, unless all the mechanics fled the country, they will be able to service and fly the helicopters until they run out of parts, obviously, not all folks who joined the Afghan military / police forces were against the Taliban, sleepers in plain sight.
In my opinion, the foreign military forces knew this but declined to report as it would make their report show a massive waste of funds / resources.


Not an embarrassment - it's pretty much standard to leave a certain amount of equipment behind in major engagements. As for AFG, how and what to leave behind has been in discussion for years.

https://www.marketplace.org/2013/06/20/ ... ghanistan/
 
johns624
Posts: 4272
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:19 pm

keesje wrote:
We lost another war.

Luckely it was far away again. Vietnam, Yemen, Beirut, Iraq, Kurts, Afghanistan.

Maybe time to get honest with ourselves and review our starting points, believes, ideologies and foreign strategies.

We owe it to the victims and chaos we leave behind after another glorious, well planned and profesionally executed withdrawal.

Different approaches should be considered when old school approaches failed.

China will probably pump in railroads, IT infrastructure, schools, powerplants, hospitals, highways as long as the Taliban behave.

Next time, we'll let the Netherlands take the lead.
I like how you forgot to mention the successes since Vietnam--Panama, Desert Storm, Balkans, etc.
 
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keesje
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:21 pm

Latest news, the drone attack on terrorists driving to the airport did kille 9, including a few kids. No longer "unconfirmed" "under investigation"
 
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casinterest
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:26 pm

Aesma wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Will The Taliban fail spectacularly in the next 5 years?
Will the rest of the world pay a price?


First you have to define what a success (and a failure) look like for them.

To me if there are more terror attacks under them than before, it would be a failure.

If people are hungry : failure.



Success and failure are items that the future history will decide. I personally feel the Taliban is and always has been a failure culturally and politically. However they have won the hearts and minds of those that they would control for now. We will see how it plays out in the future. 5 years may even bee too short.
 
extender
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:35 pm

casinterest wrote:
However they have won the hearts and minds of those that they would control for now.


They don't win hearts and minds; they crush any opposition. You submit to their authority, and that's it. They aren't doing anything for anyone but themselves.

The perception of hearts and minds is "People's private feelings and emotions, now especially those of a local population towards an invading or occupying military force."
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:40 pm

extender wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
Just a reminder that statements made factually require sources. Without a source, it's unconfirmed information, and needs to be stated as such. If not, your post may be subject to deletion.

✈️ atcsundevil


The Taliban flying UH-60s...

Seeing is believing:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1432371405727977472

https://interestingengineering.com/vide ... -by-the-us

I never said that I didn't believe it, did I? My post was asking users to comply with the rules.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:41 pm

extender wrote:
casinterest wrote:
However they have won the hearts and minds of those that they would control for now.


They don't win hearts and minds; they crush any opposition. You submit to their authority, and that's it. They aren't doing anything for anyone but themselves.

The perception of hearts and minds is "People's private feelings and emotions, now especially those of a local population towards an invading or occupying military force."



They won by propaganda. The people didn't see the problem with what they were accepting. The hears and minds of the mislead are still won over, until they come to their senses.
 
johns624
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:53 pm

Here's a thought... Maybe the majority, or a very sizeable minority of Afghanis actually like the type of fundamentalist Islam that the Taliban espouse. Maybe they like their women uneducated. Maybe they don't appreciate ancient cultural icons? Maybe they like "freedom fighters" thumbing their noses at infidel Westerners?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:16 pm

johns624 wrote:
Here's a thought... Maybe the majority, or a very sizeable minority of Afghanis actually like the type of fundamentalist Islam that the Taliban espouse. Maybe they like their women uneducated. Maybe they don't appreciate ancient cultural icons? Maybe they like "freedom fighters" thumbing their noses at infidel Westerners?


If that’s the case, then invading was an even bigger mistake than most thought.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:20 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
extender wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
Just a reminder that statements made factually require sources. Without a source, it's unconfirmed information, and needs to be stated as such. If not, your post may be subject to deletion.

✈️ atcsundevil


The Taliban flying UH-60s...

Seeing is believing:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1432371405727977472

https://interestingengineering.com/vide ... -by-the-us


Not that hard to believe considering how many AFG military were trained by us - some or many of whom crossed over to the Talibs.


I saw multiple TV news reports where both British and American senior officers were expressing concerns about the quality and reliability of the Afghans they were training and giving weapons to. This was for the Afghan army and police, both of which practically vanished without trace at the first sign of the going getting tough.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 4:11 pm

A dedicated extreme right wing minority of even 15% who are willing to die for their cause, and prevent a fractured 85% (opposed to the extreme right wing agenda) from establishing a moderate government. It is fairly easy to destroy a government, and could happen even in the US. .
 
johns624
Posts: 4272
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:37 pm

scbriml wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Here's a thought... Maybe the majority, or a very sizeable minority of Afghanis actually like the type of fundamentalist Islam that the Taliban espouse. Maybe they like their women uneducated. Maybe they don't appreciate ancient cultural icons? Maybe they like "freedom fighters" thumbing their noses at infidel Westerners?


If that’s the case, then invading was an even bigger mistake than most thought.
Yes, and no. We were there to get OBL. The Taliban wouldn't give him up. We should've gone in and concentrated on getting him. None of this "nation building" crap. We went in as a military operation, should've gotten him at Tora Bora, and then gotten out.
 
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keesje
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:59 pm

We were nation building. Building, financing infrastructure, schools, universities, hospitals, a justice system, army, promoting tolerance, democratic structures, equal rights. Sorry.

Makes no sense to deny, rewrite history to better accept an unexpected, unwanted outcome. We need to accept & learn.
 
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scbriml
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Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:01 pm

johns624 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Here's a thought... Maybe the majority, or a very sizeable minority of Afghanis actually like the type of fundamentalist Islam that the Taliban espouse. Maybe they like their women uneducated. Maybe they don't appreciate ancient cultural icons? Maybe they like "freedom fighters" thumbing their noses at infidel Westerners?


If that’s the case, then invading was an even bigger mistake than most thought.
Yes, and no. We were there to get OBL. The Taliban wouldn't give him up. We should've gone in and concentrated on getting him. None of this "nation building" crap. We went in as a military operation, should've gotten him at Tora Bora, and then gotten out.


America spent trillions of Dollars and sacrificed thousands of men in a revenge lust against one man?

It’s doubtful the Taliban even knew where he was. But Pakistan almost certainly did.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10880
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:28 pm

If these changes are what the Afghan people wanted, how did the Taliban just walk in and take over?.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1073
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:39 pm

Kabul fell just like Paris did in 1940. Once you think you've lost and your leaders think so too, then it's over. The Russians and German's didn't follow this philosophy.

Even the South Vietnamese Army fought like hell until the end.
 
NIKV69
Posts: 14556
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:14 pm

scbriml wrote:

If that’s the case, then invading was an even bigger mistake than most thought.


Not really but staying as long as we did was. I would give them money and weapons and let them fight, it's their country. If you don't want it run by terrorists then it's on you. If not well we are seeing first hand what happens.

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