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wingman
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:38 pm

scbriml wrote:
America spent trillions of Dollars and sacrificed thousands of men in a revenge lust against one man?

It’s doubtful the Taliban even knew where he was. But Pakistan almost certainly did.


The Saudis perpetrated 9-11 and Pakistan hid the ringleader. So we went to war against Afghanistan and then against Iraq. $4T and 7000 dead Americans to bomb/build/bomb/build infrastructure 5000-7000 miles away is no problem, but spending that kind of money on our own is a duel to the death. Nothing makes sense anymore. Maybe we should just bomb and rebuild our own country.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:07 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Where is the Taliban going to get fuel? No oil reserves, no refineries and no hard currency. It will have to be smuggled in but they will probably trade arms for fuel.

Hard currency...? Afghanistan has the hardest currency in the world. They "print" it themselves. It is called "opium".

From https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58308494

"The drug trade accounts for up to 60% of the Taliban's annual revenue, says US commander General John Nicholson in the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (Sigar) report."

But for the next few years they don't need much money. The 300,000 former US paid social wellfare receivers (sometimes called soldiers and police) are looking in vane for their 1st September paycheque from Pentagon. Last cheque was dated 1st August. Therefore from 2nd August they sell their billions of $$$ weapons for millions to the drug barons, who then hand them over to the Taliban for ma style protection by the Taliban. The US supplied weapons stockpile will keep a substantial part of the national economy afloat for some years to come.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:37 am

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... ls-airport

This article shows that the military aircraft left behind were absolutely trashed, and thus rendered non- airworthy. I know we're supposed to be glad they were rendered inoperative, but all I see is a colossal waste of money on a grand scale. :banghead:
 
johns624
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:45 am

wingman wrote:
Pakistan hid the ringleader.
He started out in Afghanistan. It wasn't until he was flushed out of Tora Bora that he crossed the border. We had a reason to go into Astan. We just didn't have a reason to stay anywhere near as long as we did.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:17 am

extender wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
Just a reminder that statements made factually require sources. Without a source, it's unconfirmed information, and needs to be stated as such. If not, your post may be subject to deletion.

✈️ atcsundevil


The Taliban flying UH-60s...

Seeing is believing:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1432371405727977472

https://interestingengineering.com/vide ... -by-the-us


The video indicated in the Twitter link has been fact-checked by Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post and is falsely labeled.

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/stat ... 44615?s=20

Ted Cruz issued a retraction of his share of that same Tweet, saying it was inaccurate:

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1432 ... 69120?s=20
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:39 am

Libertarian former Congressman Justin Amash made a statement earlier that reflects where I think a lot of reasonably-minded Americans are right now - grateful that this long misadventure is over:

There was no perfect time or way to exit Afghanistan. President Biden directed the evacuation of more than one hundred thousand people and got our troops out. I disagree with the president on a lot, but I’m grateful he pushed through despite all the pressure.

https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/ ... 04067?s=20
 
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keesje
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:44 am

All those people directly lashing out that the man hanged by Taliban from the helicopter is Bidens fault and failure must feel like .ssh.les today. But its typical.
 
marcelh
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:32 pm

keesje wrote:
All those people directly lashing out that the man hanged by Taliban from the helicopter is Bidens fault and failure must feel like .ssh.les today. But its typical.


Those people forget who was in charge when the US made an agreement with the Taliban. And reading that agreement it became clear the US was well aware the Taliban would take control of Afghanistan sooner or later…

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf
 
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par13del
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:58 pm

marcelh wrote:
keesje wrote:
All those people directly lashing out that the man hanged by Taliban from the helicopter is Bidens fault and failure must feel like .ssh.les today. But its typical.


Those people forget who was in charge when the US made an agreement with the Taliban. And reading that agreement it became clear the US was well aware the Taliban would take control of Afghanistan sooner or later…

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

Well based on the outrage being seen in the media today, those Americans that you are talking about seem to be the only people who believe the Taliban would take over, after all, it pretty easy to bang on about an alternate outcome, who can really disprove it? The line between a disaster pull out and a failed 20 year involvement is wearing thin...
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:21 pm

par13del wrote:
marcelh wrote:
keesje wrote:
All those people directly lashing out that the man hanged by Taliban from the helicopter is Bidens fault and failure must feel like .ssh.les today. But its typical.


Those people forget who was in charge when the US made an agreement with the Taliban. And reading that agreement it became clear the US was well aware the Taliban would take control of Afghanistan sooner or later…

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

Well based on the outrage being seen in the media today, those Americans that you are talking about seem to be the only people who believe the Taliban would take over, after all, it pretty easy to bang on about an alternate outcome, who can really disprove it? The line between a disaster pull out and a failed 20 year involvement is wearing thin...


The outrage is manufactured - it exists only in the political capital realm.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:46 pm

marcelh wrote:
Those people forget who was in charge when the US made an agreement with the Taliban. And reading that agreement it became clear the US was well aware the Taliban would take control of Afghanistan sooner or later…

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

Of course the Trump administration knew the Afghani government was going to collapse. The 2020 Doha agreement was signed by Zalmay Khalilzad on behalf of the USA and by Abdul Ghani Baradar on behalf of the Taliban. The Afghani government where not involved. How much more obvious do you want it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doha_Agreement_(2020)
 
marcelh
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:52 pm

petertenthije wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Those people forget who was in charge when the US made an agreement with the Taliban. And reading that agreement it became clear the US was well aware the Taliban would take control of Afghanistan sooner or later…

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

Of course the Trump administration knew the Afghani government was going to collapse. The 2020 Doha agreement was signed by Zalmay Khalilzad on behalf of the USA and by Abdul Ghani Baradar on behalf of the Taliban. The Afghani government where not involved. How much more obvious do you want it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doha_Agreement_(2020)


It’s not only who did and did not signed it. IMHO one of the most striking parts of the agreement is:
” The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban will not provide visas, passports, travel permits, or other legal documents to those who pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies to enter Afghanistan”

Only a government can provide visas, passports, etcetera.

But not recognized by the US…… :rotfl:
 
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ssteve
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:10 pm

par13del wrote:
Unsure why in the second link they say it is an embarrassment to the USA, the equipment was donated to the Afghanistan government.


Because without American POWs in enemy hands, and no more American troops dying, they have to lament something to support the disaster narrative. So we're lamenting the sacrifice of American... materials.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:35 pm

marcelh wrote:
petertenthije wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Those people forget who was in charge when the US made an agreement with the Taliban. And reading that agreement it became clear the US was well aware the Taliban would take control of Afghanistan sooner or later…

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

Of course the Trump administration knew the Afghani government was going to collapse. The 2020 Doha agreement was signed by Zalmay Khalilzad on behalf of the USA and by Abdul Ghani Baradar on behalf of the Taliban. The Afghani government where not involved. How much more obvious do you want it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doha_Agreement_(2020)


It’s not only who did and did not signed it. IMHO one of the most striking parts of the agreement is:
” The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban will not provide visas, passports, travel permits, or other legal documents to those who pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies to enter Afghanistan”

Only a government can provide visas, passports, etcetera.

But not recognized by the US…… :rotfl:


Wow, that is incredibly dumb. It's almost as if they didn't allow any of the GS-12/13 to touch the drafts.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:52 pm

Turns out Biden left behind some students from California:


Dozens of San Juan Unified School District students still remain in Afghanistan this week after the United States officially withdrew from the country on Monday, ending a decades-long war.

Officials with the school district located in Sacramento, Calif., told NBC News that almost 30 students were left in Afghanistan after the U.S. evacuations ended.

“We can confirm that we currently have 29 students, from 19 families, in Afghanistan,” Raj Rai, director of communication for the school district, said told the news outlet on Tuesday. “We stand ready to support these students and families in whatever way that we can.”



https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... trapped-in

This crisis ain't ending soon. Unfortunately.
 
victrola
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:57 pm

What in the hell were students of San Juan Unified School District doing in Afghanistan????? I sure hope the school had field trip permission slips from all the parents. Sending students to Afghanistan is complete insanity.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:59 pm

victrola wrote:
What in the hell were students of San Juan Unified School District doing in Afghanistan????? I sure hope the school had field trip permission slips from all the parents. Sending students to Afghanistan is complete insanity.


From reading the Article,. it can be deduced that the district knows students went to afghanistan with families, but has no real idea of where they are, as the article shows 3 students were already back in Sacramento.
Hopefully the others are part of the contingent that have been evacuated to bases , and still are in transit home.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:26 pm

wingman wrote:
scbriml wrote:
America spent trillions of Dollars and sacrificed thousands of men in a revenge lust against one man?

It’s doubtful the Taliban even knew where he was. But Pakistan almost certainly did.


The Saudis perpetrated 9-11 and Pakistan hid the ringleader. So we went to war against Afghanistan and then against Iraq. $4T and 7000 dead Americans to bomb/build/bomb/build infrastructure 5000-7000 miles away is no problem, but spending that kind of money on our own is a duel to the death. Nothing makes sense anymore. Maybe we should just bomb and rebuild our own country.


Osama was in Afghanistan harbored by the old Taliban regime. But otherwise, yes, how many Afghans (or Iraqi) was behind 911? Zero.

If anything US should have kick the shit out of that al-Saud family which is just as dictatorial and is actually the origin of all Islamic extremism. But no, the Saudis are suppose to be "friends"! The other US "ally" Pakistan is no better - that's where Osama was ultimately found after all.
 
wingman
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:33 pm

casinterest wrote:
victrola wrote:
What in the hell were students of San Juan Unified School District doing in Afghanistan????? I sure hope the school had field trip permission slips from all the parents. Sending students to Afghanistan is complete insanity.


From reading the Article,. it can be deduced that the district knows students went to afghanistan with families, but has no real idea of where they are, as the article shows 3 students were already back in Sacramento.
Hopefully the others are part of the contingent that have been evacuated to bases , and still are in transit home.


They went back to Afghanistan over the summer knowing full well the scenario and the withdrawal timeline? I won't pass any judgement until all details are known but it has some elements of "group suicide" on the surface of it.Tthe risk was well established even back in May and surely the State Dept. would've had severe travel advisories in place. A single family with an elder death to contend with is one thing, but a whole group of families from Sacramento? Sounds almost unbelievable.
 
johns624
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:18 pm

wingman wrote:
casinterest wrote:
victrola wrote:
What in the hell were students of San Juan Unified School District doing in Afghanistan????? I sure hope the school had field trip permission slips from all the parents. Sending students to Afghanistan is complete insanity.


From reading the Article,. it can be deduced that the district knows students went to afghanistan with families, but has no real idea of where they are, as the article shows 3 students were already back in Sacramento.
Hopefully the others are part of the contingent that have been evacuated to bases , and still are in transit home.


They went back to Afghanistan over the summer knowing full well the scenario and the withdrawal timeline? I won't pass any judgement until all details are known but it has some elements of "group suicide" on the surface of it.Tthe risk was well established even back in May and surely the State Dept. would've had severe travel advisories in place. A single family with an elder death to contend with is one thing, but a whole group of families from Sacramento? Sounds almost unbelievable.
I wonder how many of the Americans "left behind" fall into this category? It seems like many (if not most) were people with dual citizenship who went back to visit extended family. While it would be nice to get them out, in reality, unless the government sent you there, they don't have any obligation to get you out.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:36 pm

prebennorholm wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
Where is the Taliban going to get fuel? No oil reserves, no refineries and no hard currency. It will have to be smuggled in but they will probably trade arms for fuel.

Hard currency...? Afghanistan has the hardest currency in the world. They "print" it themselves. It is called "opium".

From https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58308494

"The drug trade accounts for up to 60% of the Taliban's annual revenue, says US commander General John Nicholson in the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (Sigar) report."

But for the next few years they don't need much money. The 300,000 former US paid social wellfare receivers (sometimes called soldiers and police) are looking in vane for their 1st September paycheque from Pentagon. Last cheque was dated 1st August. Therefore from 2nd August they sell their billions of $$$ weapons for millions to the drug barons, who then hand them over to the Taliban for ma style protection by the Taliban. The US supplied weapons stockpile will keep a substantial part of the national economy afloat for some years to come.



Except the Taliban's budget didn't include food imports, fuel imports, medicine imports, chemical imports needed myriad of uses including water purification. The Afghan population is now huge (40 mil vs 20 million that it was in 1999) and now has millions who are urban dwellers. The Allies were the ones footing the bill for all those buildings and supplies.

You are right though that opium, weapons and refugee smuggling will increase dramatically. But not enough to keep the lights on
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:03 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Turns out Biden left behind some students from California:


Dozens of San Juan Unified School District students still remain in Afghanistan this week after the United States officially withdrew from the country on Monday, ending a decades-long war.

Officials with the school district located in Sacramento, Calif., told NBC News that almost 30 students were left in Afghanistan after the U.S. evacuations ended.

“We can confirm that we currently have 29 students, from 19 families, in Afghanistan,” Raj Rai, director of communication for the school district, said told the news outlet on Tuesday. “We stand ready to support these students and families in whatever way that we can.”



https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... trapped-in

This crisis ain't ending soon. Unfortunately.


They went there by choice after State Dept warnings in April urging Americans to leave. That’s not a crisis.
 
victrola
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:31 am

“We can confirm that we currently have 29 students, from 19 families, in Afghanistan,” Raj Rai, director of communication for the school district, said told the news outlet on Tuesday. “We stand ready to support these students and families in whatever way that we can.”


Screw them. You can't fix stupid. Anyone who would send their kids on a field trip to Afghanistan anytime in the last 20 years is too stupid for me to have any sympathy for.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:50 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Kabul fell just like Paris did in 1940. Once you think you've lost and your leaders think so too, then it's over. The Russians and German's didn't follow this philosophy.

Even the South Vietnamese Army fought like hell until the end.


Around 60,000 French soldiers were killed between May and June. The German military lost 30 percent of its tanks and planes during the Battle of France. Its death toll is estimated at 27,000 killed and missing in June and 21,000 in May


https://www.france24.com/en/20200516-wh ... ny-in-1940

That was a proper battle, not like what happened in Afghanistan. But yes the French leaders thought they had lost, because they had. Fighting longer wouldn't have changed the outcome, only increased the death toll. And this wasn't guerilla warfare where you risk small groups of soldiers at a time, no, you risk thousands of casualties per day.
 
GDB
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Thu Sep 02, 2021 10:43 am

Aesma wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
Kabul fell just like Paris did in 1940. Once you think you've lost and your leaders think so too, then it's over. The Russians and German's didn't follow this philosophy.

Even the South Vietnamese Army fought like hell until the end.


Around 60,000 French soldiers were killed between May and June. The German military lost 30 percent of its tanks and planes during the Battle of France. Its death toll is estimated at 27,000 killed and missing in June and 21,000 in May


https://www.france24.com/en/20200516-wh ... ny-in-1940

That was a proper battle, not like what happened in Afghanistan. But yes the French leaders thought they had lost, because they had. Fighting longer wouldn't have changed the outcome, only increased the death toll. And this wasn't guerilla warfare where you risk small groups of soldiers at a time, no, you risk thousands of casualties per day.


A good article, added to which was the effect of the Panzers and command structure all having radio comms. In the 30’s the Nazi propaganda machine had a ‘people’s radio’ installed in most homes, compact, cheap and reliable for the time, the army adapted it for the basis of comms for even a small Panzer 1 or 2. Despite having more armor the French Army in 1940 relied on telephone and dispatch riders to communicate. The lines were often cut or destroyed, riders got caught on roads packed with fleeing civilians.

I do not see any parallels with Afghanistan, for all the damaging political instability of the Third Republic, you cannot compare with the ‘virtual’ government of Afghanistan.
It seems much of that money sent did not go on making a coherent army, more likely a lot is in offshore bank accounts.
 
victrola
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Thu Sep 02, 2021 12:11 pm

I hear a lot of talk that Afghanistan will now become a haven for terrorists to plan attacks against the United States. Why do they need more safe havens when they are already free to operate in the territories of our so called "allies" Saudi Arabia and Pakistan?
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Thu Sep 02, 2021 2:21 pm

My point was there was no last stand at the gates of Paris or Kabul. Unlike Moscow and Berlin.

That actually turned out pretty well for the French because Paris was pretty much in one piece when the war ended.
 
tu204
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:56 pm

This whole Afghanistan deal for some reason interested me and I took the time to look at it's history for the last couple hundred years.

They were played with every single great world powers (even China already had their shot in the 70's).

But in the end, be it the USSR or the USA, there is no difference. Both are just occupying powers that the locals wanted nothing to do with.

The USSR pretty much built whatever infrastructure that Afghanistan has now, but stupidly otherthrew Amin back in 79' I think.
The USA invaded them and tried to built them a state and again to the same result.
The locals percieved, and probably rightfully so, both nations to be occupants on their land and fought them accordingly.

Only solution I see is let is have it for themselves, let them govern themseles. Keeping the borders tight and see what comes of it.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:15 pm

tu204 wrote:
This whole Afghanistan deal for some reason interested me and I took the time to look at it's history for the last couple hundred years.

They were played with every single great world powers (even China already had their shot in the 70's).

But in the end, be it the USSR or the USA, there is no difference. Both are just occupying powers that the locals wanted nothing to do with.

The USSR pretty much built whatever infrastructure that Afghanistan has now, but stupidly otherthrew Amin back in 79' I think.
The USA invaded them and tried to built them a state and again to the same result.
The locals percieved, and probably rightfully so, both nations to be occupants on their land and fought them accordingly.

Only solution I see is let is have it for themselves, let them govern themseles. Keeping the borders tight and see what comes of it.

Heroin and islamic terrorism is what will come out of it, most probably.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Thu Sep 02, 2021 10:18 pm

Mark Felton has put together a episode on the military history of Afghanistan from late 1800's to modern day which is really good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKBpTThDopY
 
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alberchico
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Fri Sep 03, 2021 2:51 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2014 ... index.html

Here is a rare glimpse of the old Afghanistan before the Soviet invasion when the country still had a promising future.
 
tu204
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:23 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
tu204 wrote:
This whole Afghanistan deal for some reason interested me and I took the time to look at it's history for the last couple hundred years.

They were played with every single great world powers (even China already had their shot in the 70's).

But in the end, be it the USSR or the USA, there is no difference. Both are just occupying powers that the locals wanted nothing to do with.

The USSR pretty much built whatever infrastructure that Afghanistan has now, but stupidly otherthrew Amin back in 79' I think.
The USA invaded them and tried to built them a state and again to the same result.
The locals percieved, and probably rightfully so, both nations to be occupants on their land and fought them accordingly.

Only solution I see is let is have it for themselves, let them govern themseles. Keeping the borders tight and see what comes of it.

Heroin and islamic terrorism is what will come out of it, most probably.


Possibly. However opium production is something that skyrocketed after the occupation started in 2001. During Taliban rule production and smuggling wasn't anywhere near the same levels.

As far as terrorism goes, Taliban are the more moderate power that ISIS, and it looks to me like there will be something of a struggle for power between the two of them. One where I hope the Taliban will come out on top.
 
GDB
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Sep 04, 2021 4:56 pm

A biting, satirical yet also depressingly accurate look at Minister responsible for the UK part of the endgame;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... addleboard
 
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scbriml
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:37 pm

GDB wrote:
A biting, satirical yet also depressingly accurate look at Minister responsible for the UK part of the endgame;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... addleboard


"Meat shields" :rotfl:

Rarely have I seen such widespread incompetence from an elected government and I was around for the Labour governments of the mid to late '70s!
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:22 pm

tu204 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
tu204 wrote:
This whole Afghanistan deal for some reason interested me and I took the time to look at it's history for the last couple hundred years.

They were played with every single great world powers (even China already had their shot in the 70's).

But in the end, be it the USSR or the USA, there is no difference. Both are just occupying powers that the locals wanted nothing to do with.

The USSR pretty much built whatever infrastructure that Afghanistan has now, but stupidly otherthrew Amin back in 79' I think.
The USA invaded them and tried to built them a state and again to the same result.
The locals percieved, and probably rightfully so, both nations to be occupants on their land and fought them accordingly.

Only solution I see is let is have it for themselves, let them govern themseles. Keeping the borders tight and see what comes of it.

Heroin and islamic terrorism is what will come out of it, most probably.


Possibly. However opium production is something that skyrocketed after the occupation started in 2001. During Taliban rule production and smuggling wasn't anywhere near the same levels.

As far as terrorism goes, Taliban are the more moderate power that ISIS, and it looks to me like there will be something of a struggle for power between the two of them. One where I hope the Taliban will come out on top.

It all remains to be seen. Yes, Taliban first suppressed opium, with death penalties left and right. Only to monopolize it. Then production rates shot up again. But that was then. This is now.

Today's Taliban is more moderate, and tries to appear even more moderate to the rest of the world. They have an insurmountable task of attracting foreign investment into a war-ravaged territory, that tried to be a country under several kings in XX century, only to be stopped in its tracks by superpower politics and succession of (very) unpopular "democratic" governments. With these "democracies" (Soviet-style or Western-style, regardless) locals lose touch with government, and revert to tribalism, with vengeance. At the moment, Afghanistan is again not a country, but a territory that might try to become a country. This requires money, and there are few options to get it. Local exporting industry (not much but opium), foreign investment, or a safe haven for illicit activities. For the first two, Taliban needs to stabilize the place. For the second, it will need to look presentable and respectable. That means that plenty of radicals within Taliban will get mighty pissed, and might be recruited by someone more unhinged (like ISIS).

Now -- why the task is insurmountable. Afghanistan is around 40 million people, not yet triple of 15 million of 1979, but going in that direction. Where do the resources come from, to keep hunger and squalor from pushing folks into the open arms of radicals? I don't see it yet. Maybe China's "belt and road" will put them all to work? Remains to be seen.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Sep 04, 2021 11:10 pm

I'm not sure Afghanistan can grow enough food to feed itself. No hard currency. With that crazy birthrate (along with the other neighboring country's) does not bode well for the future.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sat Sep 04, 2021 11:20 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Today's Taliban is more moderate


I have a bridge for sale that may be of interest to you.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Sep 05, 2021 2:34 pm

If the population in most of the middle east were not almost a magnitude greater than 100 years ago many of their problems would be tractable. Add to that the pressure of climate change and things become dystopic. But even now if all the players made the right moves and decisions life could move forward. Bangladesh somehow did it. But evolutionary behavior, tribal loyalties and customs are all against them.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Sep 05, 2021 4:00 pm

scbriml wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
Today's Taliban is more moderate


I have a bridge for sale that may be of interest to you.


"I'll by that, for a dollar!"
Seriously, though. If you will see women allowed to take any profession (except prostitution; 1991-2001 version of Taliban accepted only that type of employment for women) -- that meant they have softened (at least outwardly) a bit. Small consolation, I know. And actually a huge problem for Taliban -- they will have a problem controlling radical wings, who will cry foul, and demand a return to rigorous enforcement of the doctrine. "Demand" could actually mean shooting and IED's, as now customary in those parts...
 
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scbriml
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Sep 05, 2021 4:57 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
that meant they have softened (at least outwardly) a bit


Yep, I mean there’s nothing like killing an eight-month pregnant policewoman to demonstrate how much the Taliban has softened. FFS man, they’re just as bad as they ever were, to think otherwise is naive in the extreme.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58455826
Details of the incident are still sketchy as many in Firozkoh fear retribution if they speak out. But three sources have told the BBC that the Taliban beat and shot Negar dead in front of her husband and children on Saturday.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Sep 05, 2021 5:26 pm

More proof of the Taliban having “softened”.

Afghani girls are still allowed to go to college or university, but only under the following conditions:
  • They must wear a nikab. This covers their entire face except for the eyes.
  • Woman and men have to be separated. When they do share the same class, then the women are to be separated by a curtain.
  • Women are to leave shared classes five minutes before the men. They have to wait in separate rooms until all men left the building.
  • Women can only be educated by other women. If no female teachers are available, then an “older man of good character” can fill in.

Ok, technically this is better then the Taliban of old. Baby steps I suppose.

It’s a Dutch source, but you can use a online translator.
https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/2119680 ... -te-dragen
 
JJJ
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:59 pm

scbriml wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
that meant they have softened (at least outwardly) a bit


Yep, I mean there’s nothing like killing an eight-month pregnant policewoman to demonstrate how much the Taliban has softened. FFS man, they’re just as bad as they ever were, to think otherwise is naive in the extreme.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58455826
Details of the incident are still sketchy as many in Firozkoh fear retribution if they speak out. But three sources have told the BBC that the Taliban beat and shot Negar dead in front of her husband and children on Saturday.


"The gunmen were heard speaking Arabic". If true (and this comes from the family's own recollection) it looks more like ISIS rather than Taliban.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Taliban rapidly taking over Afghanistan.

Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:33 pm

scbriml wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
that meant they have softened (at least outwardly) a bit


Yep, I mean there’s nothing like killing an eight-month pregnant policewoman to demonstrate how much the Taliban has softened. FFS man, they’re just as bad as they ever were, to think otherwise is naive in the extreme.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58455826
Details of the incident are still sketchy as many in Firozkoh fear retribution if they speak out. But three sources have told the BBC that the Taliban beat and shot Negar dead in front of her husband and children on Saturday.


Well, maybe I'm already wrong, and they are as bad or worse than before. Where are the bombers to fix the place?
And yeah, then I challenge the whole "we are engaging with Taliban" from those same powers that spent 20 years kicking sand out there. Again, it's either or. Either Taliban has softened up, and engaging with them is a way to keep them moving in that direction. Or they have not, and then why are they all still alive, and at large, rather than crawling into holes with drones chasing them?

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