Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 7
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1699
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

New Orleans Jazz Fest, Other Fall Events Being Cancelled Due To Surge

Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:08 pm

Here we go again....
Will be interesting to see how this plays out this time, as some states will stay open, a couple by law.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/n ... ar-AAN72cb

https://www.memphisflyer.com/germantown ... l-canceled

https://pagesix.com/2021/08/09/bravocon-2021-canceled/
 
Toenga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:20 pm

In NZ a government appointed health taskforce has released it's report on strategy to reopen the borders from purely a health perspective
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... n-strategy.
And some local comment
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... -a-stretch
The government is yet to add the economic and political components to this path and will announce it's preliminary response tomorrow.
So it appears nothing will happen until all eligible New Zealanders have had reasonable opportunity to get vaccinated expected early in the new year.
Then a very cautious reopening starting with vaccinated NZ adults only (children are not yet eligible to receive vaccines) being able to make to make trips, only up to a month duration overseas, without quarantining on return but rapid testing.
So the political path seems to be a continuation of a strongly health led economic and social response.
Not much joy though for the international aviation industry or the parts of our tourism industry heavily dependant on international tourists.
But what is at stake is our currently unparalleled internal freedoms with the consequential minimal economic costs compared that what are being experienced everywhere else in the world.
In the meantime we can continue to observe what is happening elsewhere in the world to influence our own response.
Iceland, here seems to be a particularly relevant example, like us a remote island, with a small, but very largely urbanised population, but they have now achieved very high vaccination levels.
 
Derico
Posts: 4499
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:37 am

Toenga wrote:
In NZ a government appointed health taskforce has released it's report on strategy to reopen the borders from purely a health perspective
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... n-strategy.

So it appears nothing will happen until all eligible New Zealanders have had reasonable opportunity to get vaccinated expected early in the new year.
Then a very cautious reopening starting with vaccinated NZ adults only (children are not yet eligible to receive vaccines) being able to make to make trips, only up to a month duration overseas, without quarantining on return but rapid testing.
So the political path seems to be a continuation of a strongly health led economic and social response.
Not much joy though for the international aviation industry or the parts of our tourism industry heavily dependant on international tourists.
.


Don't be offended at this, but I see no reason why any other country should allow people with NZ passports entry into their countries so long as NZ does not evidence reciprocity. I guess most of the world is far more generous if they will allow such a one-sided arrangement. If say 80 to 90% of New Zealanders are vaccinated at the time, and 80% of the people from X country are vaccinated, and the virus is not out of control in X country, there is absolutely no excuse for the government in Wellington to deny entry, aside from pure xenophobia.

At that point, why should any country tolerate that? If New Zealand wants to remain cut off, of course is their right. But I don't think any 3rd countries with reasonable vaccination and virus control measures should stand for such a setup, and would simply act in tit-for-tat diplomacy to defend the rights of their citizens.

Meanwhile, China is punishing people left and right for the recent delta 'surge' there. Australia will triple down on lockdowns for COVID 0 strategy, Taiwan is going on 2 years with not a single foreign student let alone tourist.

This COVID zero insanity these Asia-Pacific nations are pursuing really could encapsulate the statement on the definition of insanity made famous purportedly by Einstein.

To have the hubris to think you can defeat a virus...
 
Toenga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:39 am

Reciprocity for granting entry between countries is very largely based on a degree of equality of risk between those countries.
I doubt you are advocating reciprocity of entry between your country and say Iran, on purely the level of achieved covid vaccination.
For covid this is currently equality of risk of carrying a serious disease between countries with vastly disparate levels of transmission.
Whilst equality of vaccinated proportion of population may be a very rough approximation of risk for countries where covid is in all practicable terms endemic, it certainly is not for a country, such as ours. A country that is currently maintaining zero community transmission, and intends to stay that way in the meantime, by quenching any out breaks by short stringent lockdowns.
Our country is continuing to flourish, suffering incredibly little social or economic disruption from covid. Our economy is actually larger then precovid and next to nobody has died of either primary or any secondary effects of the disease. Unemployment is at a decades low of 4%.
But right now, here we are closely observing, with very considerable concern, the rapid deterioration in quality of life and in their economy, of neighbouring NSW as a result of them departing very recently from covid free status.
I think the absolute least of their considerations there is that they may not now be excluded from some other off shore jurisdictions demanding reciprocity of entry provisions. Their residents exclusion from just the other Australian States, is much more an issue for them then being excluded from the one and only country Australians were able to travel to before without obtaining an exit permit prior to them joining the masses with covid transmitting in their community.
Here we are entirely free to leave, it is just getting back through our capacity limited MIQ system that is a problem. Even so at about available places per week it is about 3x the capacity per capita of the Australian system.
In the nearly 18 months our MIQ system has been running over 162 000 people have entered NZ through this system, that's over 3% of our total population.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4158
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 1:55 pm

Toenga wrote:
In NZ a government appointed health taskforce has released it's report on strategy to reopen the borders from purely a health perspective
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... n-strategy.
And some local comment
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... -a-stretch
The government is yet to add the economic and political components to this path and will announce it's preliminary response tomorrow.
So it appears nothing will happen until all eligible New Zealanders have had reasonable opportunity to get vaccinated expected early in the new year.
Then a very cautious reopening starting with vaccinated NZ adults only (children are not yet eligible to receive vaccines) being able to make to make trips, only up to a month duration overseas, without quarantining on return but rapid testing.
So the political path seems to be a continuation of a strongly health led economic and social response.
Not much joy though for the international aviation industry or the parts of our tourism industry heavily dependant on international tourists.
But what is at stake is our currently unparalleled internal freedoms with the consequential minimal economic costs compared that what are being experienced everywhere else in the world.
In the meantime we can continue to observe what is happening elsewhere in the world to influence our own response.
Iceland, here seems to be a particularly relevant example, like us a remote island, with a small, but very largely urbanised population, but they have now achieved very high vaccination levels.


This is what Canada is doing. Vaccination rates hover about 80% first doses and 70% second at the moment and we just opened our border to vaccinated US travelers and on September 9th will open up to vaccinated travelers. The only condition is that you also provide a negative PCR test dated 72 hours prior to arrival and have been 2 weeks post final dosage of AZ, Moderna, J&J, or Pfizer.

Derico wrote:
Toenga wrote:
In NZ a government appointed health taskforce has released it's report on strategy to reopen the borders from purely a health perspective
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... n-strategy.

So it appears nothing will happen until all eligible New Zealanders have had reasonable opportunity to get vaccinated expected early in the new year.
Then a very cautious reopening starting with vaccinated NZ adults only (children are not yet eligible to receive vaccines) being able to make to make trips, only up to a month duration overseas, without quarantining on return but rapid testing.
So the political path seems to be a continuation of a strongly health led economic and social response.
Not much joy though for the international aviation industry or the parts of our tourism industry heavily dependant on international tourists.
.


Don't be offended at this, but I see no reason why any other country should allow people with NZ passports entry into their countries so long as NZ does not evidence reciprocity. I guess most of the world is far more generous if they will allow such a one-sided arrangement. If say 80 to 90% of New Zealanders are vaccinated at the time, and 80% of the people from X country are vaccinated, and the virus is not out of control in X country, there is absolutely no excuse for the government in Wellington to deny entry, aside from pure xenophobia.

At that point, why should any country tolerate that? If New Zealand wants to remain cut off, of course is their right. But I don't think any 3rd countries with reasonable vaccination and virus control measures should stand for such a setup, and would simply act in tit-for-tat diplomacy to defend the rights of their citizens.

Meanwhile, China is punishing people left and right for the recent delta 'surge' there. Australia will triple down on lockdowns for COVID 0 strategy, Taiwan is going on 2 years with not a single foreign student let alone tourist.

This COVID zero insanity these Asia-Pacific nations are pursuing really could encapsulate the statement on the definition of insanity made famous purportedly by Einstein.

To have the hubris to think you can defeat a virus...


I don't think what the rest of the world takes personally what NZ is doing. They are a sovereign nation and can do as they please.
Also they know as Australia proves that this can change on a dime if even one person falls through the cracks.
 
User avatar
mke717spotter
Posts: 2240
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2005 9:32 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:56 pm

"Breakthrough" cases of Covid-19 infection are very rare and many are asymptomatic. I see no reason why vaccinated folks can't go back to living their lives normally. If some people don't want to get vaccinated then that's on them. If those who are vaccinated want to continue to social distance, wear masks, etc. then that is also their prerogative. But I don't think its righteous to maintain mask mandates, lockdowns, and all these other rules that affect everyone. The whole reason COVID alarmed everyone in the first place was because of the fear was that the hospital systems would be overwhelmed. At least in the US, was there ever an instance where someone was abandoned in the hallway to die because they weren't enough resources to treat him/her? According to the CDC website 80.5% of the population ≥ 65 years of age is fully vaccinated, plus over 35,000,000 million people have had COVID (recorded cases only) and this is roughly 11% of the entire population (previous infection may not equal 100% immunity but you can't tell me this group is insignificant). Isn't it pretty clear that the worst is behind us? Sadly, preventing every single infection or death is not realistic so creeping towards this "zero-COVID" strategy is just not the way to go. Just the other day the Oxford Vaccine Group director said herd immunity is "not a possibility" with the Delta variant. At this point its time for everyone to make their own decisions and just get on with it.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:57 pm

Derico wrote:
Toenga wrote:
In NZ a government appointed health taskforce has released it's report on strategy to reopen the borders from purely a health perspective
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... n-strategy.

So it appears nothing will happen until all eligible New Zealanders have had reasonable opportunity to get vaccinated expected early in the new year.
Then a very cautious reopening starting with vaccinated NZ adults only (children are not yet eligible to receive vaccines) being able to make to make trips, only up to a month duration overseas, without quarantining on return but rapid testing.
So the political path seems to be a continuation of a strongly health led economic and social response.
Not much joy though for the international aviation industry or the parts of our tourism industry heavily dependant on international tourists.
.


Don't be offended at this, but I see no reason why any other country should allow people with NZ passports entry into their countries so long as NZ does not evidence reciprocity. I guess most of the world is far more generous if they will allow such a one-sided arrangement. If say 80 to 90% of New Zealanders are vaccinated at the time, and 80% of the people from X country are vaccinated, and the virus is not out of control in X country, there is absolutely no excuse for the government in Wellington to deny entry, aside from pure xenophobia.

At that point, why should any country tolerate that? If New Zealand wants to remain cut off, of course is their right. But I don't think any 3rd countries with reasonable vaccination and virus control measures should stand for such a setup, and would simply act in tit-for-tat diplomacy to defend the rights of their citizens.

Meanwhile, China is punishing people left and right for the recent delta 'surge' there. Australia will triple down on lockdowns for COVID 0 strategy, Taiwan is going on 2 years with not a single foreign student let alone tourist.

This COVID zero insanity these Asia-Pacific nations are pursuing really could encapsulate the statement on the definition of insanity made famous purportedly by Einstein.

To have the hubris to think you can defeat a virus...

To others:
Travel rights are traditionally reciprocal. If not, there is no reason for the other country to offer such a competitive advantage.

As you know tit for tat is the most common diplomatic solution. Countries will not give New Zealand business people the advantage. Companies would, countries won't.

They cannot open up until vaccinated. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 15988
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:45 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
"Breakthrough" cases of Covid-19 infection are very rare and many are asymptomatic. I see no reason why vaccinated folks can't go back to living their lives normally. If some people don't want to get vaccinated then that's on them. If those who are vaccinated want to continue to social distance, wear masks, etc. then that is also their prerogative. But I don't think its righteous to maintain mask mandates, lockdowns, and all these other rules that affect everyone. The whole reason COVID alarmed everyone in the first place was because of the fear was that the hospital systems would be overwhelmed. At least in the US, was there ever an instance where someone was abandoned in the hallway to die because they weren't enough resources to treat him/her? According to the CDC website 80.5% of the population ≥ 65 years of age is fully vaccinated, plus over 35,000,000 million people have had COVID (recorded cases only) and this is roughly 11% of the entire population (previous infection may not equal 100% immunity but you can't tell me this group is insignificant). Isn't it pretty clear that the worst is behind us? Sadly, preventing every single infection or death is not realistic so creeping towards this "zero-COVID" strategy is just not the way to go. Just the other day the Oxford Vaccine Group director said herd immunity is "not a possibility" with the Delta variant. At this point its time for everyone to make their own decisions and just get on with it.


The US is not employing (nor capable of pursuing) a zero-COVID strategy. The proof is in the pudding. Public health is the wrong venue for praise of libertarianism.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2036
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:59 pm

lightsaber wrote:
To others:
Travel rights are traditionally reciprocal. If not, there is no reason for the other country to offer such a competitive advantage.

As you know tit for tat is the most common diplomatic solution. Countries will not give New Zealand business people the advantage. Companies would, countries won't.

They cannot open up until vaccinated. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber


The UK gave both Australian and NZ residents the green light back in may. Needless to say, neither contry reciprocated
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 15988
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 12:08 am

Kent350787 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
To others:
Travel rights are traditionally reciprocal. If not, there is no reason for the other country to offer such a competitive advantage.

As you know tit for tat is the most common diplomatic solution. Countries will not give New Zealand business people the advantage. Companies would, countries won't.

They cannot open up until vaccinated. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber


The UK gave both Australian and NZ residents the green light back in may. Needless to say, neither contry reciprocated


Didn’t do much good for Aussies who can’t return home even if vaccinated.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5909
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:52 am

mke717spotter wrote:
The whole reason COVID alarmed everyone in the first place was because of the fear was that the hospital systems would be overwhelmed. At least in the US, was there ever an instance where someone was abandoned in the hallway to die because they weren't enough resources to treat him/her? According to the CDC website 80.5% of the population ≥ 65 years of age is fully vaccinated, plus over 35,000,000 million people have had COVID (recorded cases only) and this is roughly 11% of the entire population (previous infection may not equal 100% immunity but you can't tell me this group is insignificant). Isn't it pretty clear that the worst is behind us?



I don't quite agree with that part.

There are indications that the healthcare system is again approaching/reaching capacity in many parts of the US. Whereas sick patients may not be told to go back home, there may already be triage going on and transfers to other facilities.
The fact that no one is denied healthcare does not mean that the quality of that healthcare is not affected. Getting a hospital bed but not getting the adequate level of care due to lack of nurses/doctors/equipment can very negatively affect prognosis and result in deaths that would not have happened in a non-overstretched facility.

The idea of reverting to normal life only works if Covid is brought down to a low baseline which imposes no significant burden on the healthcare system and which allows it to dedicate the normal amount of resources to Covid and other patients. There are not enough people with built-in immunity to achieve this yet, and this will only happen quickly if people vaccinate, which not enough do.

I also think that the worst is behind us, but it doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods yet.
Last edited by Francoflier on Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 15988
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:03 am

Francoflier wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
The whole reason COVID alarmed everyone in the first place was because of the fear was that the hospital systems would be overwhelmed. At least in the US, was there ever an instance where someone was abandoned in the hallway to die because they weren't enough resources to treat him/her? According to the CDC website 80.5% of the population ≥ 65 years of age is fully vaccinated, plus over 35,000,000 million people have had COVID (recorded cases only) and this is roughly 11% of the entire population (previous infection may not equal 100% immunity but you can't tell me this group is insignificant). Isn't it pretty clear that the worst is behind us?



I don't quite agree with that part.

There are indications that the healthcare system is again approaching/reaching capacity in many parts of the US. Whereas sick patients may not be told to go back home, there may already be triage going on and transfers to other facilities.
The fact that no one is denied healthcare does not mean that the quality of that healthcare is not affected. Getting a hospital bed but not getting the adequate level of care due to lack of nurses/doctors/equipment can very negatively affect prognosis and result in deaths that would not have happened in a non-overstretched facility.

The idea of reverting to normal life only works if Covid is brought down to a low baseline which imposes no significant burden on the healthcare system and which allows it to dedicate the normal amount of resources to Covid and other patients. There are no enough people with built-in immunity to achieve this yet, and this will only happen quickly if people vaccinate, which not enough do.

I also think that the worst is behind us, but it doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods yet.


Another aspect to this is that healthcare capacity is further strained by all the resignations nursing and other occupations have suffered as a result of one too many waves. These are professionals who cannot simply be replaced by grabbing someone off the street.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2036
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:05 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
To others:
Travel rights are traditionally reciprocal. If not, there is no reason for the other country to offer such a competitive advantage.

As you know tit for tat is the most common diplomatic solution. Countries will not give New Zealand business people the advantage. Companies would, countries won't.

They cannot open up until vaccinated. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber


The UK gave both Australian and NZ residents the green light back in may. Needless to say, neither contry reciprocated


Didn’t do much good for Aussies who can’t return home even if vaccinated.


There was much hilarity from Aussies and Kiwis when the UK did it. At the time both nations had largely reached elimination and there was no way that reciprocal arrangements would happen with highly infected UK. The view from people who did head to the UK was "good luck with that".

Sydney is worst impacted at the moment, but other cities are also dealing with smaller but challenging Delta variant outbreaks. With vaccine availability finally improving and rates increasing dramatically, I suspect we are looking down the barrel of logically living in a low Covid environment rather than elimination. Western Australia, with the most isolated capital in the world and almost ideal conditions for elimination may remain isolated from the rest of the country and the world for a long time.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 15988
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:43 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:

The UK gave both Australian and NZ residents the green light back in may. Needless to say, neither contry reciprocated


Didn’t do much good for Aussies who can’t return home even if vaccinated.


There was much hilarity from Aussies and Kiwis when the UK did it. At the time both nations had largely reached elimination and there was no way that reciprocal arrangements would happen with highly infected UK. The view from people who did head to the UK was "good luck with that".

Sydney is worst impacted at the moment, but other cities are also dealing with smaller but challenging Delta variant outbreaks. With vaccine availability finally improving and rates increasing dramatically, I suspect we are looking down the barrel of logically living in a low Covid environment rather than elimination. Western Australia, with the most isolated capital in the world and almost ideal conditions for elimination may remain isolated from the rest of the country and the world for a long time.


Aware of all that - I was just referring to the government making it exceptionally difficult for Australians to repatriate.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2036
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:31 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Didn’t do much good for Aussies who can’t return home even if vaccinated.


There was much hilarity from Aussies and Kiwis when the UK did it. At the time both nations had largely reached elimination and there was no way that reciprocal arrangements would happen with highly infected UK. The view from people who did head to the UK was "good luck with that".

Sydney is worst impacted at the moment, but other cities are also dealing with smaller but challenging Delta variant outbreaks. With vaccine availability finally improving and rates increasing dramatically, I suspect we are looking down the barrel of logically living in a low Covid environment rather than elimination. Western Australia, with the most isolated capital in the world and almost ideal conditions for elimination may remain isolated from the rest of the country and the world for a long time.


Aware of all that - I was just referring to the government making it exceptionally difficult for Australians to repatriate.


And for residents to leave. With the incredibly slow vaccine rollout, plus the current lockdowns of well over half the population, reopening to the worl dwill be slow, but perhaps the risk appetite will also change, at least in Australia (apart from WA).
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:37 am

[threeid][/threeid]
mke717spotter wrote:
"Breakthrough" cases of Covid-19 infection are very rare and many are asymptomatic. I see no reason why vaccinated folks can't go back to living their lives normally. If some people don't want to get vaccinated then that's on them. If those who are vaccinated want to continue to social distance, wear masks, etc. then that is also their prerogative. But I don't think its righteous to maintain mask mandates, lockdowns, and all these other rules that affect everyone. The whole reason COVID alarmed everyone in the first place was because of the fear was that the hospital systems would be overwhelmed. At least in the US, was there ever an instance where someone was abandoned in the hallway to die because they weren't enough resources to treat him/her? According to the CDC website 80.5% of the population ≥ 65 years of age is fully vaccinated, plus over 35,000,000 million people have had COVID (recorded cases only) and this is roughly 11% of the entire population (previous infection may not equal 100% immunity but you can't tell me this group is insignificant). Isn't it pretty clear that the worst is behind us? Sadly, preventing every single infection or death is not realistic so creeping towards this "zero-COVID" strategy is just not the way to go. Just the other day the Oxford Vaccine Group director said herd immunity is "not a possibility" with the Delta variant. At this point its time for everyone to make their own decisions and just get on with it.


You are stating rumors for facts, what are your sources?
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:42 am

Francoflier wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
The whole reason COVID alarmed everyone in the first place was because of the fear was that the hospital systems would be overwhelmed. At least in the US, was there ever an instance where someone was abandoned in the hallway to die because they weren't enough resources to treat him/her? According to the CDC website 80.5% of the population ≥ 65 years of age is fully vaccinated, plus over 35,000,000 million people have had COVID (recorded cases only) and this is roughly 11% of the entire population (previous infection may not equal 100% immunity but you can't tell me this group is insignificant). Isn't it pretty clear that the worst is behind us?



I don't quite agree with that part.

There are indications that the healthcare system is again approaching/reaching capacity in many parts of the US. Whereas sick patients may not be told to go back home, there may already be triage going on and transfers to other facilities.
The fact that no one is denied healthcare does not mean that the quality of that healthcare is not affected. Getting a hospital bed but not getting the adequate level of care due to lack of nurses/doctors/equipment can very negatively affect prognosis and result in deaths that would not have happened in a non-overstretched facility.

The idea of reverting to normal life only works if Covid is brought down to a low baseline which imposes no significant burden on the healthcare system and which allows it to dedicate the normal amount of resources to Covid and other patients. There are not enough people with built-in immunity to achieve this yet, and this will only happen quickly if people vaccinate, which not enough do.

I also think that the worst is behind us, but it doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods yet.


The worst is ahead of us IMO.
Nobody is wearing masks anymore unless they have to, even indoors, that's what I see, especially among vaccinated and deniers.
We're heading into fall and winter from a summer surge despite closed schools.

Total carnage this winter and vaccinations won't make a difference. Another winter of restrictions, lockdowns, only this time the wave will be bigger.
What we saw in India a few months ago is going to happen in the US and Europe, and then people will lose confidence in the vaccines.

Israel already at 40% of peak infections from previous waves, that's in summer with schools closed and with most vulnerable vaccinated. If the vaccines are making any difference, then the virus must be a lot worse because it is dwarfing any effects from the vaccines.

Just my opinion.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5909
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:59 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
What we saw in India a few months ago is going to happen in the US and Europe, and then people will lose confidence in the vaccines.


What we saw in India a few months ago is exactly what is happening in Europe and the US right now... it's the Delta wave, which originates from India.
Except that despite its increased contagiousness, its consequences on human lives have been largely dampened thanks to vaccines.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:07 am

Francoflier wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
What we saw in India a few months ago is going to happen in the US and Europe, and then people will lose confidence in the vaccines.


What we saw in India a few months ago is exactly what is happening in Europe and the US right now... it's the Delta wave, which originates from India.
Except that despite its increased contagiousness, its consequences on human lives have been largely dampened thanks to vaccines.


I think that you are forgetting that it takes several weeks for a wave of infections to turn into a wave of deaths.
We're alreeady going ballistic, 2 more weeks and then the schools open.
By September politicians will be saying "numbers are up but we're going to avoid lockdowns this time. We can't have lockdowns again".
Same song as last year, only this time they are going to blame the unvaccinated.

By October-November, hospitals overflowing, lockdowns.
3rd doses without the appropriate clinical trials. Mixing of vaccines? Who cares, just do it.

This is my opinion.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:17 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
What we saw in India a few months ago is going to happen in the US and Europe, and then people will lose confidence in the vaccines.


What we saw in India a few months ago is exactly what is happening in Europe and the US right now... it's the Delta wave, which originates from India.
Except that despite its increased contagiousness, its consequences on human lives have been largely dampened thanks to vaccines.

Sadly true. We're about to see the hospitals over-loaded. In the vaccine thread we've been talking how the vast majority of cases are unvaccinated.

Confirmation, 95% of hospital patients unvaccinated:
https://www.khou.com/article/news/verif ... e87508ab7f

This is a crisis of the intentionally unvaccinated. Everyone denied medical care for other ailments...

This round is worse. Why? Fewer nurses. "Some gave up."
https://tulsaworld.com/news/state-and-r ... 0ba94.html

“We lost a lot of nurses through the COVID pandemic,” said Dr. Dale Bratzler, the University of Oklahoma’s chief COVID officer, during a livestream press conference with news reporters Thursday. “Some gave up, changed jobs, went working remotely — lots of reasons.

“Back in January and February we handled the capacity with the big numbers of cases. We can’t do it now because we don’t have enough nurses and personnel to take care of all those patients.”


Every doctor I know is noting how the nurses were over-worked and are just done. Many just resigned without a word when the surge restarted; those who haven't worked the coronavirus wards don't know the true hell of them. Now I haven't worked them, but I've talked friends and family through their PTSD. Why risk bringing this home? We have far less capacity.

In Florida, "consider other options before calling 911." :wideeyed:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Mississippi's hospital system is about to collapse. That is when deaths get really high when people cannot receive the excellent care we've come to expect in the USA.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... ississippi

For Mississippi, nearly 90% of the hospitalized for coronavirus unvaccinated:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Some need capacity for other reasons. E.g., Having a heat wave that always fills hospitals, but what if they are already full? Triage will occur (people will be kicked out of the hospital). Triage is using resources where it does the most good.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

A staggering 98% to 99% of those dying of Covid19 are the unvaccinated. This must be part of the triage decision (they'll demand more days of bed care than a vaccinated person, in my opinion).
https://medicalpartnership.usg.edu/covi ... accinated/

Time for gallows humor:
What do you call a serial killer of anti-vaxers during a global pandemic?
-- Covid19

Hospitals in far too many areas are struggling to keep up. Too many medical staff cannot take another wave. They never had the time to "un-burnout" from the prior waves.
Its sad when people are having to talk to each other on where hospitals have capacity.


A map (that hasn't been updated today) on hospital capacity:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... r-you.html

Hold on tight, we're weeks away from the peak, in my opinion. We were warned by India, but did we adapt and vaccinate? :banghead:

Lightsaber

Late edit:
Mississippi has formally requested the USNS Comfort (Hospital ship) to help.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... ississippi

Houston using pop up tents for coronavirus patients:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... 375025.php

Why do I have the theme song for MASH going through my head?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:13 pm

Ro of Delta updated to Ro=7.
https://www.wbur.org/npr/1026190062/cov ... chickenpox
Wow... just wow. Original was Ro=3.

I have to admit I was initially against the idea everyone would get coronavirus. But with that high of transmission... I now agree everyone will be exposed to Covid19.

Lightsaber
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2892
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:42 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Ro of Delta updated to Ro=7.
https://www.wbur.org/npr/1026190062/cov ... chickenpox
Wow... just wow. Original was Ro=3.

I have to admit I was initially against the idea everyone would get coronavirus. But with that high of transmission... I now agree everyone will be exposed to Covid19.

Lightsaber


With that high R0, it will quickly be game over.
It is almost like COVID was warning us with the Alpha variant: "Get vaccinated, because if you don't I will get you!" Then we get the Delta variant and COVID says: "Told you so!" (if COVID could talk, of course).
Many people got the hint, some did not. Sorry, but though luck to the unvaxxed.
 
User avatar
mke717spotter
Posts: 2240
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2005 9:32 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:21 pm

Francoflier wrote:
There are indications that the healthcare system is again approaching/reaching capacity in many parts of the US. Whereas sick patients may not be told to go back home, there may already be triage going on and transfers to other facilities.

I know the media constantly bludgeons this issue, but this isn't exactly something new and that's what's frustrating. Plenty of past flu seasons have tested US hospitals. There were thousands of deaths, vaccine uptake was low, nobody wore masks or social distanced and yet you barely heard a peep about it on TV.

https://www.healio.com/news/pediatrics/ ... -hospitals

"According to interviews, tight resources and underfunding mean hospitals are ill prepared for “surge” events like the 2017-2018 season — the first to be classified as “high severity” across all age groups. An estimated 959,000 people were hospitalized, and 79,400 people died because of influenza that season, including 187 documented pediatric deaths.

William Schaffner, MD, professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, said hospital capacity across the country was “stretched but not broken” during the 2017-2018 season, and most hospitals were able to manage because they had a pandemic preparedness plan in place."


Waterbomber2 wrote:
You are stating rumors for facts, what are your sources?

What of what said is a "rumor"?

lightsaber wrote:
This round is worse. Why? Fewer nurses. "Some gave up."
https://tulsaworld.com/news/state-and-r ... 0ba94.html

“We lost a lot of nurses through the COVID pandemic,” said Dr. Dale Bratzler, the University of Oklahoma’s chief COVID officer, during a livestream press conference with news reporters Thursday. “Some gave up, changed jobs, went working remotely — lots of reasons.

“Back in January and February we handled the capacity with the big numbers of cases. We can’t do it now because we don’t have enough nurses and personnel to take care of all those patients.”


Every doctor I know is noting how the nurses were over-worked and are just done. Many just resigned without a word when the surge restarted; those who haven't worked the coronavirus wards don't know the true hell of them. Now I haven't worked them, but I've talked friends and family through their PTSD.

I'm sorry if this sounds harsh, but if you're signing up for a career in healthcare then you should have been aware that you might be thrust into this situation at some point in your career. I know the former US President might not be too popular on here, but he often referred to the COVID situation as a "war" and I think its a pretty accurate comparison. When soldiers join the army I assume they know what they're getting themselves into and with healthcare workers it shouldn't be too different. Newsflash - its not going to be all fun and games. I get that dealing with death and all that can take its toll on folks, but quitting now when you're needed most is kind of weak. Maybe some of those people weren't really cut out for it in the first place.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:51 pm

mke717spotter wrote:

lightsaber wrote:
This round is worse. Why? Fewer nurses. "Some gave up."
https://tulsaworld.com/news/state-and-r ... 0ba94.html

“We lost a lot of nurses through the COVID pandemic,” said Dr. Dale Bratzler, the University of Oklahoma’s chief COVID officer, during a livestream press conference with news reporters Thursday. “Some gave up, changed jobs, went working remotely — lots of reasons.

“Back in January and February we handled the capacity with the big numbers of cases. We can’t do it now because we don’t have enough nurses and personnel to take care of all those patients.”


Every doctor I know is noting how the nurses were over-worked and are just done. Many just resigned without a word when the surge restarted; those who haven't worked the coronavirus wards don't know the true hell of them. Now I haven't worked them, but I've talked friends and family through their PTSD.

I'm sorry if this sounds harsh, but if you're signing up for a career in healthcare then you should have been aware that you might be thrust into this situation at some point in your career. I know the former US President might not be too popular on here, but he often referred to the COVID situation as a "war" and I think its a pretty accurate comparison. When soldiers join the army I assume they know what they're getting themselves into and with healthcare workers it shouldn't be too different. Newsflash - its not going to be all fun and games. I get that dealing with death and all that can take its toll on folks, but quitting now when you're needed most is kind of weak. Maybe some of those people weren't really cut out for it in the first place.

How do you replace the nurses when they are now needed? You can put down the people quitting, but the reality is when people are worked to burnout, they just quit.

There is no need for a repeat of last year. If people were vaccinated, the healthcare system could reset. A preventable problem.

My point is the system will beyound capacity much earlier this time.
In my opinion, we are weeks away from the real problem. For cases are continuing and coronavirus patients takes time.

You can mismanage and overwork anyone. Doing it at "one point" that has lasted 18 months, you cannot surge forever. To compare to War, the book "Am Krieg" pointed out you must rotate people out every six weeks.

Weak is what people who don't care how employees are treated say. Have you ever worked to burnout? You just don't care. You cannot care. That is why everyone needed to be vaccinated. This is a unnecessary crisis. If you want to work the hours of the coronavirus ward at life or death stress day after day...

Also many (most?) of last year were pediatric nurses, stroke nurses, cardiac nurses. They didn't sign up for critical care or the ICU but were thrown in. They see no reason for the risk of bringing the disease back home.

Talk to medical staff. They are angry and upset for this unnecessary surge. THis isn't weak, this whole crisis is a stupid unvaccinated demand for care of selfish people.

Also, my link was nurses quit before this latest surge.
People were released from contracts. Why in the world would they sign up for another extended time risking family, away from friends? They did their duty last year. It is time for someone else. Oh... there isn't anyone else. Bummer for the unvaccinated.

I will note the pediatric wards are stepping up. That is because the kids didn't have a choice. The adults did.

Lightsaber

Late edit, next joke:
What is the scientific name for anti-vaxxers during a pandemic?
The control group.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 15988
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:51 am

mke717spotter wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
There are indications that the healthcare system is again approaching/reaching capacity in many parts of the US. Whereas sick patients may not be told to go back home, there may already be triage going on and transfers to other facilities.

I know the media constantly bludgeons this issue, but this isn't exactly something new and that's what's frustrating. Plenty of past flu seasons have tested US hospitals. There were thousands of deaths, vaccine uptake was low, nobody wore masks or social distanced and yet you barely heard a peep about it on TV.

https://www.healio.com/news/pediatrics/ ... -hospitals

"According to interviews, tight resources and underfunding mean hospitals are ill prepared for “surge” events like the 2017-2018 season — the first to be classified as “high severity” across all age groups. An estimated 959,000 people were hospitalized, and 79,400 people died because of influenza that season, including 187 documented pediatric deaths.

William Schaffner, MD, professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, said hospital capacity across the country was “stretched but not broken” during the 2017-2018 season, and most hospitals were able to manage because they had a pandemic preparedness plan in place."


Waterbomber2 wrote:
You are stating rumors for facts, what are your sources?

What of what said is a "rumor"?

lightsaber wrote:
This round is worse. Why? Fewer nurses. "Some gave up."
https://tulsaworld.com/news/state-and-r ... 0ba94.html

“We lost a lot of nurses through the COVID pandemic,” said Dr. Dale Bratzler, the University of Oklahoma’s chief COVID officer, during a livestream press conference with news reporters Thursday. “Some gave up, changed jobs, went working remotely — lots of reasons.

“Back in January and February we handled the capacity with the big numbers of cases. We can’t do it now because we don’t have enough nurses and personnel to take care of all those patients.”


Every doctor I know is noting how the nurses were over-worked and are just done. Many just resigned without a word when the surge restarted; those who haven't worked the coronavirus wards don't know the true hell of them. Now I haven't worked them, but I've talked friends and family through their PTSD.

I'm sorry if this sounds harsh, but if you're signing up for a career in healthcare then you should have been aware that you might be thrust into this situation at some point in your career. I know the former US President might not be too popular on here, but he often referred to the COVID situation as a "war" and I think its a pretty accurate comparison. When soldiers join the army I assume they know what they're getting themselves into and with healthcare workers it shouldn't be too different. Newsflash - its not going to be all fun and games. I get that dealing with death and all that can take its toll on folks, but quitting now when you're needed most is kind of weak. Maybe some of those people weren't really cut out for it in the first place.


That is a pretty astounding statement. Perhaps one with such a low bar for coworker empathy also should not be entering the field.

Burnout is a real thing - have you taken any courses in organizational psych?
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:10 am

57 anti-vax nurses and doctors suspended in Sardinia as hospitals fill up.

https://www.unionesarda.it/news-sardegn ... x-i8wg0yhj

This gets more insane by the day.


Lightsaber, your link to 95% of patients being unvaccinated doesn't work and is in conflict with data from Israel, UK and Marseille.
But it is correlated by similar vague media reports in Belgium and Italy that intend to show the merits of vaccinations.

Personally, I don't believe that the vaccines will make any difference.
Not only because the vaccines are probably much less effective than advertised, but risk appetite is much bigger, so that should easily make things worse.

A vaccinated colleague of mine is walking around without mask and sneezing and coughing all over the place.
Is he any better than an unvaccinated who wears his mask?
I'm all for the Green Passes and restrictions for non-vaccinated, if anything it will prove that it's pointless to vaccinate people if that stops them from wearing masks.

120k infections and 600 deaths per day in the US and this in the middle of August with schools closed.

Good luck everyone, and if you want to protect yourself, once again, these are my recommendations, vaxed or not doesn't make a difference:

-If 75+ or have a condition that makes you susceptible, get vaccinated.
-In public or even at home around the elderly, wear FFP2/FFP3 masks (N95/N100) with proper seals that strap around the head, not around the ears, and also outdoors and around animals. The ones that strap around the ears are not high grade respirators, even if it says so on the packaging. If valved, cover with a high grade surgical mask on top.
-Protect your eyes in indoor settings, even if only with glasses, they still reduce exposure
-Keep distancing, even if people around you do not seem to care
-Ventilate offices and workplaces, place screens where possible, install CO2 meters for monitoring, make co-workers aware.
-Hoard a few months worth of food and toilet paper, just in case. While everybody is behaving like this is over, we are actually already nearing the breaking point of March 2020 very fast.

These are my opinions.
Talk to you guys again in a couple of months.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:18 am

Aaron747 wrote:
That is a pretty astounding statement. Perhaps one with such a low bar for coworker empathy also should not be entering the field.

Burnout is a real thing - have you taken any courses in organizational psych?

Well said. Anyone who mocks someone going under the PTSD stress the nurses have been through... yea, best I say nothing more. I feel for the nurses.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
57 anti-vax nurses and doctors suspended in Sardinia as hospitals fill up.

https://www.unionesarda.it/news-sardegn ... x-i8wg0yhj

This gets more insane by the day.


Lightsaber, your link to 95% of patients being unvaccinated doesn't work and is in conflict with data from Israel, UK and Marseille.
But it is correlated by similar vague media reports in Belgium and Italy that intend to show the merits of vaccinations.

Personally, I don't believe that the vaccines will make any difference.
Not only because the vaccines are probably much less effective than advertised, but risk appetite is much bigger, so that should easily make things worse.

A vaccinated colleague of mine is walking around without mask and sneezing and coughing all over the place.
Is he any better than an unvaccinated who wears his mask?
I'm all for the Green Passes and restrictions for non-vaccinated, if anything it will prove that it's pointless to vaccinate people if that stops them from wearing masks.

120k infections and 600 deaths per day in the US and this in the middle of August with schools closed.

Good luck everyone, and if you want to protect yourself, once again, these are my recommendations, vaxed or not doesn't make a difference:

-If 75+ or have a condition that makes you susceptible, get vaccinated.
-In public or even at home around the elderly, wear FFP2/FFP3 masks (N95/N100) with proper seals that strap around the head, not around the ears, and also outdoors and around animals. The ones that strap around the ears are not high grade respirators, even if it says so on the packaging. If valved, cover with a high grade surgical mask on top.
-Protect your eyes in indoor settings, even if only with glasses, they still reduce exposure
-Keep distancing, even if people around you do not seem to care
-Ventilate offices and workplaces, place screens where possible, install CO2 meters for monitoring, make co-workers aware.
-Hoard a few months worth of food and toilet paper, just in case. While everybody is behaving like this is over, we are actually already nearing the breaking point of March 2020 very fast.

These are my opinions.
Talk to you guys again in a couple of months.

Link works. I've posted so many links on high fraction unvaccinated, that isn't up for debate anymore.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/verif ... e87508ab7f

Hospitals, health organizations and government health officials confirm at least 95% of American COVID-19 hospital patients are unvaccinated.
The White House recently started referring to the COVID-19 pandemic as a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” in reference to high numbers of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in unvaccinated people while vaccines are widely available.

Hospital workers and their acquaintances have shared viral posts to social media with claims that they’ve treated unvaccinated COVID-19 patients almost exclusively over vaccinated patients. They say it’s evidence the vaccines curb the disease’s severity and urge everyone to get vaccinated.


There will be idiots that don't follow the swiss cheese model. All that matters right now is the hospitals are overloaded with unvaccinated. I posted numerous links on the hospitals filling up 90%+ with unvaccinated. That isn't in doubt anymore.

I know unvaccinated an colleague who came into work all sick and infected 17 people. I know another unvaccinated coworker who was one of the 17 infected who went to a funeral and infected the widow. Just as that proves nothing, nor does your example. 90% of the unvaccinated I know always lower their mask... Ummm... Worthless. Instead, let's all get vaccinated, shall we?

I fully agree in the Swiss Cheese model, since we're all going to get exposed, those that can should get vaccinated. Until then, we have to ride out this overloading the medical system.



Vaccines work. This is an unnecessary crisis.

The whole reason we're in this mess as the misinformation on issues with the vaccines.
98% to 99% of deaths are the unvaccinated:
https://medicalpartnership.usg.edu/covi ... accinated/

As a "light" prepper, I agree on being prepared. My children think I'm insane when I joke, "I can only sleep well over a couple of months of soup."
Not everyone can avoid people (e.g., doctors and nurses must perform touch labor).

We can agree the next bit of time will be way to exiting.

Next joke:

Why did the anti-vaxxer cross the road
---I don't know, go do your own research and stop bothering me!

The vaccines are widely available and effective. I'm going to worry about the elderly, children, and vulnerable. I'm going to worry about the medical staff (doctors, nurses), nursing home staff.
What I'm not going to worry about is unvaccinated adults in the hospital. They chose their fate. By May, vaccines were easy to come by. Free Uber, time off from work...

Care is going to have to be rationed. When triage happens, it will be those that are the least work. I hope some hospitals are kept "clean" (free of coronavirus patients) for maternity, cancer/kidney care, heart attacks, strokes, auto accidents, slip/fall, heat stroke, and all the other reasons we have hospitals. Many of the nurses I know that volunteered for coronavirus wards won't do it again. Pediatric nurses are needed back at the offices. Heck, my dental hygienist had the certs to work in the hospital giving shots, so she did that while the dentists were closed. None of the people I know will volunteer again, it was hell until the contracts were abruptly cancelled when the last wave ended. Oops...

When you asked your doctor about a vaccine, what did the doctor say? No one would make such a huge medical decision without informed advice, now would they...

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:52 pm

Burnout and the... unnecessity of this crisis is making this worse:
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/ ... 095090002/

“They get all the praise about being brave health care heroes, but they are not bulletproof,” Fuller said. “Now that this (delta variant) has hit, they are already fatigued. So now you are looking at people fatigued on top of fatigue.”

I've been posting for months in the vaccine thread how fatigue, in particular nurse fatigue, was going to be a major issue. I'm sad to see it coming to fruition.
https://www.cp24.com/news/an-alarming-e ... gpuvxrpwim

“Morale is low. People are so discouraged,” Umaigba told CTV News Toronto.


After working through a pandemic on the frontlines of the health-care sector understaffed and overworked, Umaigba said that nurses are at the end of their rope.
...
experienced nurses are taking some time off or people are just quitting because of the stress of the pandemic and very, very poor working conditions,” she said.


This isn't one hospital. The process oriented system created a burnout culture in many industries. But what we care about the next few weeks is nurses.

I was the tail end of the generations taught fatigue management for employees reporting to me. Today, it is the mythical man month where all that matters is hours and if you work someone beyond a work life balance, they are "weak" and somehow it is their fault for burnout. Well... We need to drop the surprise pikachu faces. You cannot surge in war for more than 6 weeks (read Am Krieg) and you certainly cannot surge 18 months in healthcare.

They have to deal with auto accidents, drinking accidents, the cancer doctors and nurses want to get back to cancer, the stroke team is back on stroke, the pediatric teams are back in pediatrics (but many back in a pediatric coronavirus ward). We need more people working, the workload on too small a group is burning them out.

I know people who need medical care they cannot get right now due to this silly surge.

People's priorities changed during the lockdown. Those that had to work want work/life balance. Many need it.

I personally do not think anyone understands "compassion fatigue" until they've held the hand of someone dying. Anyone who has done that knows it takes days to get over it.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/nur ... 15563.html
An ICU nurse in Mississippi says she no longer has the strength to treat unvaccinated Covid-19 patients after a tenfold spike of cases linked to the Delta variant has overwhelmed hospitals.

Jen Sartin, a nurse at Singing River Health System in Ocean Springs, told MSNBC she had requested a transfer as “compassion fatigue” sets in among hospital staff at people who refuse to get vaccinated.

“Honestly, I’ve given so much I can’t keep going. That’s why I decided to move to a different department, because it’s affected me in ways that I never thought possible,” Ms Sartin said.


Every single person I know working in the coronavirus ward is so stressed about bringing it home to family. This is something the single just won't understand. It is my opinion that the care for those in families is gone, yet these are the people we need to help us.

I feel sorry for those medical staff doing a heroic effort.
I feel sorry for those not able to get the intense number of nursing/doctor hours coronavirus requires as this is a labor intensive illness.
I do not feel sorry for the intentionally unvaccinated. You made your choice. If about 20% more US citizens were vaccinated, we wouldn't be having this discussion as this would be a non-event. (That number comes from my modeling based on current vaccine effectiveness and the Ro=7 I posted upthread of Delta). Now the urban areas with high density unvac populations will suffer (its there).

I cannot help but notice that hospital data stopped being updated early this week in the USA. I speculate that is because otherwise people would demand a younger child's vaccine and 3rd jabs. :scratchchin:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... r-you.html

Before data was lagging 1 or 2 days, which I consider fine. It is now 8/13 and the latest data is 8/7... WHAT?!? Stop posting data just when we hit a crisis... that is silly. Make those hospital administrators earn their inflated bonuses.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:51 pm

This is sad. Dallas is out of pediatric ICU beds. Now the article is overly dramatic, they are airlifting children to less impacted areas.

https://apnews.com/article/europe-middl ... d879391051

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
mke717spotter
Posts: 2240
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2005 9:32 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Weak is what people who don't care how employees are treated say. Have you ever worked to burnout? You just don't care. You cannot care. That is why everyone needed to be vaccinated. This is a unnecessary crisis. If you want to work the hours of the coronavirus ward at life or death stress day after day...

Also many (most?) of last year were pediatric nurses, stroke nurses, cardiac nurses. They didn't sign up for critical care or the ICU but were thrown in. They see no reason for the risk of bringing the disease back home.

Talk to medical staff. They are angry and upset for this unnecessary surge. THis isn't weak, this whole crisis is a stupid unvaccinated demand for care of selfish people.

I work as an EMT in Milwaukee and most days when I go in its call, after call, after call, after call (this is what it was like even pre-COVID). I've also had patients die on me and then had the responsibility of delivering the bad news to the family. None of that is enjoyable but it comes with the territory. I know that's not 100% what its like to work at the hospital and deal with COVID patients but its not like I have no experience with any of this.

The unwillingness to get vaccinated isn't really something new that all of the sudden stemmed from COVID. Maybe public health officials bear some responsibility for not coming up with more effective strategies ahead of time. They should have known that eventually pace of vaccinations was going to slow down in a big way. At this point I don't think continuously badgering politicians to get in front of a camera and encourage vaccinations is going to move the needle much.

Another issue you have to remember is that only a small fraction of the US population has actually had COVID, and in most instances the symptoms are mild or there can be none at all. This has been going on for well over a year now and there are only 3 people close to me who have tested positive. One of those instances was an asymptomatic case and then another was my aunt who lives in Poland. A lot of younger people who aren't really tuned in don't view COVID as a threat.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5725
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:30 am

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202108 ... ssion=true
Japanese government reportedly going to setup "oxygen station" and "station of antibody cocktail treatment" for patients staying at home that need such treatment
It seems to be implying something very difficult.
At the same time, they want to achieve 80% 2-dose vaccination rate across the nation by early October
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:06 pm

Hospital stats finally updated. 75,800 as of 8/12. Considering so many nurses quit, no wonder so many hospitals are near capacity. (I posted on the hospitals upthread).
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

68% of Florida hospitals expect to hit capacity based on staffing shortages:
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/cor ... 095090002/
"The rate for agency nurses is rising exponentially and we can no longer count on them accepting our offers," she said in an email.
So... nurses don't want to work Coronavirus, so rates are going up for their compensation. That is fair. In no way would I work in a coronavirus ward. I'm proud of my relative and friends who do, I wouldn't want to do it (even if I had the medical training), so I more than side with the nurses avoiding the wards.

Following from: https://apnews.com/article/health-flori ... 547608fe30
What amused me: The parents maintain that while it may be safe to operate schools in some areas of the state without masks, it is not safe to do so in “crisis” areas of Florida, which includes Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, St. Petersburg, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami.
Why does this amuse me? I'm currently vacationing in an unusually well vaccinated area of Florida. While I would like to see more mask wearing, the local hospitals are doing ok showing, at least in my opinion, how even local pockets of high vaccination protect the community. My pediatrician commented the #1 way kids get coronavirus is (in his observation) still from parents. I'm fully vaccinated to protect my one child too young to be vaccinated and I shall get a booster as soon as I am able (as well as vaccinate the child).

My other favorite link on hospitals hasn't updated since 8/7, so worthless during an exponential rise...

Michigan reports 98% in hospitals not fully vaccinated. This number seems to be the norm and in the vaccine thread, we discussed months ago how we expected 2% breakthrough (vulnerable who just cannot build an immunity). So this seems about right:
https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/ar ... ted-people

This is a crisis of the unvaccinated. I wish people would talk to their doctors. Very... very... very few shouldn't get vaccinated. Even in those where it is unlikely to work, it might. I know of three cancer patients still surviving in the ICU (due to doctors I personally know working in the coronavirus wards, not personal friends or anything) because of the vaccines. Unvaccinated patients of the same condition, minus cancer, are already dead.

The nurses have been go go go for too long. Please consider getting vaccinated for their sake. Please consider vaccinating your children for the child's sake, their friends' sake (less transmission) and the nurses sake.

Lightsaber
 
GDB
Posts: 14396
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:14 pm

 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Aug 15, 2021 8:28 pm

Hospitalizations for those in their 30s is reaching a record high:
https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-hospita ... 19347.html

Adults between the ages of 30 and 39 largely avoided hospitalizations from coronavirus during the early phases of the pandemic, but lagging vaccination numbers and highly active lives are driving hospitalizations in the age group, per the Journal.
...
New hospital admissions of COVID-19 patients in their 30s hit 1,113 a day on average during the seven days ending on Wednesday, up from 908 the prior seven days, the WSJ reports.
...
Nationally, slightly less than half of those ages 25 to 39 are fully vaccinated, compared with 61% of all adults, according to CDC data.


Local hospital hit hard (not local to where I am now on vacation, but local to home). They use the example of an unvaccinated family, including a 19 year old son
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

This is paralleling the stories from India where if one person brings Delta into an unvaccinated home, many get it (fewer here, thanks I speculate to more room, in particular less sharing of bathrooms).

I haven't seen a link showing anything below 90% unvaccinated that names a hospital and quotes a doctor (I assume there will be regional variation, vaccine variation). Note: The definition of vaccinated is 2 weeks after the 2nd dose. I've seen some links counting a bunch of 1st jabbers as "vaccinated" in a two dose regimen.

Another link (one hospital):
Nowadays, about 95% of the hospital's COVID-19 patients are unvaccinated, he said.
Roughly 99 to 100% of COVID-19 patients in need of an ICU ventilator in recent days have been unvaccinated, Baxley said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Holy cow! Now while a smaller hospital, there is no doubt this is a crisis of the unvaccinated.
I have yet to see any report of the hospitalized being a majority vaccinated. I've seen a lot of sniffles and flu symptoms among the vaccinated, but the bulk of the hospitalized, every report from the hospitals, is 90%+ unvaccinated and many around 95%. I'll take their is uncertainty (this is a crisis), but not about the vaccines keeping people out of the hospitals.

I do think we really need boosters to reign in the spread and to vaccinate the kids (keep them out of the hospitals and slow the spread).

This link is an interesting read, but doesn't give numbers (I don't like pointing fingers), but has one really interestingquote:

“I see a younger population, an unvaccinated population, a population that is often done something such as a major wedding or concert. Something that has put them in an environment where they had a lot of exposure,” Kerns said of recent patients.

https://wvmetronews.com/2021/08/15/camc ... accinated/

It doesn't matter if vaccinated or not, doing something with a lot of exposure will make you sick (too much virus is certain to overwhelm the immune system in anyone). We need to wear masks and be wise. (My relatives, on vacation, are upset at me as I will make no exceptions for indoor dining and insist on socially distanced dining.)

Overwhelming evidence this is a crisis of the unvaccinated continues:
https://www.dailyitem.com/coronavirus/v ... 5d4ff.html

Maloney said that since May 1, when vaccines were widely available locally, 95 percent of positive COVID tests at Geisinger were from unvaccinated individuals. Of the few cases of vaccinated people who became infected, less than 1 percent were hospitalized with COVID-19, and all of those vaccinated individuals were discharged and returned home without treatment with ventilators, Maloney said.


I have friends working in the coroavirus wards. They have vaccinated, including the young (a really cute dude who made out with a sick, unvaccinated babe, he received extra attention from the nurses that amused the doctors...), certainly the elderly (above age 90 is tough to mount an immunity), cancer patients, very obese (BMI > 40), and immunosuppressed. Mostly, they have unvaccinated though.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Aug 15, 2021 8:47 pm

School district shut down.
With Covid19:
76 students
67 staff
No mention fraction vaccinated
https://news.yahoo.com/entire-georgia-s ... 53995.html

With an unvaccinated child who needs more socialization, this concerns me. I just posted about one nearby hospital (almost full, nearby to my home, not the link). Note, another is half full (I don't know why the difference).

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:09 pm

Polls show sharp shift in how to treat unvaccinated:
https://amp.yorkdispatch.com/amp/8148765002


The latest surge in coronavirus hospitalizations among the unvaccinated — so maddening because it was so preventable — was sure to touch off a backlash of sorts, once it dawned on people that a new round of society-wide restrictions, mask-wearing and closures for everyone would be the result.

“We could have done this the easy way,” I wrote a few weeks ago. “But ‘we’ chose not to … So the hard way it’s going to be.”

...

“The vaccinated, across party lines, have kind of had it with the unvaccinated,” the story summed up.


I personally have been trying to have vaccine discussions for 8 months with people.

This seems to be a global phenomenon. In particular after the tremendous success the French had going hardline.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... A~OWID_WRL

I personally would be mellower if me and my children could be triple jabbed, but my youngest doesn't qualify yet for any vaccine.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:54 pm

Seminole country latest county to ask residents to limit 911 calls (for non-US, that is what we dial for emergency fire-police-paramedic).
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local ... ing-covid/

This wave is bringing our system to the limit.

When I look at our testing, we are not testing enough in the USA. In other words, we don't know how many really have it. We should test enough so that less than 5% of test are positive, right now (chart reading) it looks to be about 15%. Above 20% means you just have no idea of how bad it really is.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

While it looks like the cases are at a lesser slope, the lack of testing probably means a linear increase in cases (we need more testing).
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

What matters is the hospitals. Hopefully it slows down soon.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
mke717spotter
Posts: 2240
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2005 9:32 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Tue Aug 17, 2021 8:44 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Seminole country latest county to ask residents to limit 911 calls (for non-US, that is what we dial for emergency fire-police-paramedic).

I don't know if this problem is widespread, but in Milwaukee where I work there's just always been WAY too many people who call 911 for stuff that is not even close to being an emergency (leg pain, headache, weakness, etc.). I'll always remember what the manager told us on the first day of orientation: "This is an easy job, a lot of people have nothing better to do and they just want to go to the hospital."

https://www.tmj4.com/news/i-team/you-co ... ity-policy

"When you call 911 for a medical emergency, you expect the nearest ambulance to be there in just a few minutes. But if your call isn't life threatening you could wait as long as 25 minutes to get a ride to the hospital.

The I-TEAM found private ambulance companies are strained, and can't meet the city's standards for something called a turnback.

When an ambulance company turns back it is telling the city it can't handle the call."
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2036
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:18 am

lightsaber wrote:
Polls show sharp shift in how to treat unvaccinated:
https://amp.yorkdispatch.com/amp/8148765002


The latest surge in coronavirus hospitalizations among the unvaccinated — so maddening because it was so preventable — was sure to touch off a backlash of sorts, once it dawned on people that a new round of society-wide restrictions, mask-wearing and closures for everyone would be the result.

“We could have done this the easy way,” I wrote a few weeks ago. “But ‘we’ chose not to … So the hard way it’s going to be.”

...

“The vaccinated, across party lines, have kind of had it with the unvaccinated,” the story summed up.


I personally have been trying to have vaccine discussions for 8 months with people.

This seems to be a global phenomenon. In particular after the tremendous success the French had going hardline.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... A~OWID_WRL

I personally would be mellower if me and my children could be triple jabbed, but my youngest doesn't qualify yet for any vaccine.

Lightsaber


My city has been in lockdown for 7 weeks, with that extended during the last week to the whole state of over 8 million. The daily number of new cases hit 633 today, having been zero 8 weeks ago.

I can't imagine the degree of vaccine hesitancy being experienced in some parts of the USA. Here, people are desperate for any of the scarce vaccines - scarcity partially due the the risk of TTS from the more readily available AZ vaccine. 170,000 people were vaccinated on Monday.

We are seeing with the Delta strain that mask wearing and lockdown isn't enough, and our vaccinations were far too low due to availability. But even now with all those things (over 50% of adults have had one dose, over 30% two), household transmission and R value of greater than 1, this is massively difficult to control. The advice today is that every single new case is infecting at least one other person.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:54 am

Kent350787 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Polls show sharp shift in how to treat unvaccinated:
https://amp.yorkdispatch.com/amp/8148765002


The latest surge in coronavirus hospitalizations among the unvaccinated — so maddening because it was so preventable — was sure to touch off a backlash of sorts, once it dawned on people that a new round of society-wide restrictions, mask-wearing and closures for everyone would be the result.

“We could have done this the easy way,” I wrote a few weeks ago. “But ‘we’ chose not to … So the hard way it’s going to be.”

...

“The vaccinated, across party lines, have kind of had it with the unvaccinated,” the story summed up.


I personally have been trying to have vaccine discussions for 8 months with people.

This seems to be a global phenomenon. In particular after the tremendous success the French had going hardline.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... A~OWID_WRL

I personally would be mellower if me and my children could be triple jabbed, but my youngest doesn't qualify yet for any vaccine.

Lightsaber


My city has been in lockdown for 7 weeks, with that extended during the last week to the whole state of over 8 million. The daily number of new cases hit 633 today, having been zero 8 weeks ago.

I can't imagine the degree of vaccine hesitancy being experienced in some parts of the USA. Here, people are desperate for any of the scarce vaccines - scarcity partially due the the risk of TTS from the more readily available AZ vaccine. 170,000 people were vaccinated on Monday.

We are seeing with the Delta strain that mask wearing and lockdown isn't enough, and our vaccinations were far too low due to availability. But even now with all those things (over 50% of adults have had one dose, over 30% two), household transmission and R value of greater than 1, this is massively difficult to control. The advice today is that every single new case is infecting at least one other person.

I hope we can further increase production to increase our exports, for until everyone is sufficiently vaccinated, we will keep going through these waves. I can understand the frustration. In particular as it looks like everyone needs 3 jabs. :wideyed: Although I've been reading about nasal vaccines being needed to help reduce transmission.

I don't know what is adequate to say. We know vaccines slow transmission, but it takes mass vaccination (> 70%, probably with Delta > 87.5% per my math).

Oh, my math, Delta Ro=7, need 1-1/(Ro+1)=87.5% per old rules of thumb on transmission that I read (I cannot recall where).

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:56 am

More cases in New Zealand. IMHO time to accelerate vaccination. The zero case strategy is much harder with Ro=7 when you have asymptomatic cases that will move this virus around:
https://www.wftv.com/news/health/latest ... 47GSIQJA4/

The above link also notes Hawaii's largest hospital system has run out of ICU beds. Rhoo Rhoo.

Lightsaber
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2036
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:00 am

lightsaber wrote:
More cases in New Zealand. IMHO time to accelerate vaccination. The zero case strategy is much harder with Ro=7 when you have asymptomatic cases that will move this virus around:
https://www.wftv.com/news/health/latest ... 47GSIQJA4/

The above link also notes Hawaii's largest hospital system has run out of ICU beds. Rhoo Rhoo.

Lightsaber


Agreed. This is the challenge that NSW and now Victoria Australia have faced with Delta. Victoria (pop around 6.5 million) has locked down earlier than NSW did, so hopefully 57 new cases today (from zero a week ago) is heading to a peak rather than mirroring the NSW outbreak trajectory.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5725
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:09 am

Watching Japanese TV news
In Tokyo, Osaka, and such, Delta have already exceeded 90% of all cases
Real time infectivity in Tokyo is estimated to be 1.3 now, and it is expected that even if infectivity is to be successfully cut by 30% to 0.9 level, number of severe case will exceed ICU capacity in Tokyo from mid August to October
There are now some.proposals to setup centralized hospitalization facility for people woth.mild symptom, and to administer antibody cocktails to them to reduce their rate of turning severe, but how to secure the manpower is the problem.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 15988
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:42 am

c933103 wrote:
Watching Japanese TV news
In Tokyo, Osaka, and such, Delta have already exceeded 90% of all cases
Real time infectivity in Tokyo is estimated to be 1.3 now, and it is expected that even if infectivity is to be successfully cut by 30% to 0.9 level, number of severe case will exceed ICU capacity in Tokyo from mid August to October
There are now some.proposals to setup centralized hospitalization facility for people woth.mild symptom, and to administer antibody cocktails to them to reduce their rate of turning severe, but how to secure the manpower is the problem.


Manpower problems are one of the reasons mass vaccination centers in major cities have to triage between age groups. Under-50 vaccination did not begin in Osaka and Nagoya until last week. Mass vaccination centers have to use volunteers from dental clinics and medical school students. It's a real problem that Japan lacks sufficient numbers of trained professionals for this type of rush on service. This makes me worry about old friends and colleagues in Tokyo when the next large earthquake happens there.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5725
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:20 pm

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1656
The covid-19 lab leak hypothesis: did the media fall victim to a misinformation campaign?

To me, the article seems to be explaining convincingly on why some theories on coronavirus origins were being ignored
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22888
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:50 am

c933103 wrote:
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1656
The covid-19 lab leak hypothesis: did the media fall victim to a misinformation campaign?

To me, the article seems to be explaining convincingly on why some theories on coronavirus origins were being ignored

I've yet to see anything disproving the lab leak theory. There was circumstantial evidence at the time that policies were really sloppy.

It is so strange such a new disease that mutates much faster is suddenly on the world.

With so much vaccine resistance, I do not think we'll even stop this. Oh joy...

Lightsaber
 
Toenga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:30 am

lightsaber wrote:
More cases in New Zealand. IMHO time to accelerate vaccination. The zero case strategy is much harder with Ro=7 when you have asymptomatic cases that will move this virus around:
https://www.wftv.com/news/health/latest ... 47GSIQJA4/

The above link also notes Hawaii's largest hospital system has run out of ICU beds. Rhoo Rhoo.

Lightsaber


The NZ vaccination rate has massively accelerated since 1st July.
Prior to this date the only vaccines being used were the initial very modest Pfizer order, the first available from 4 orders with different manufacturers.
Not long after 1st deliveries another order was placed with Pfizer fo enough vaccines to complete the entire program plus supply the Pacific Island nations in the NZ realm. The reasoning was that a single supplier much simplified logistics and preliminary information was that Pfizer was the best available., More importantly and prophetically, it was the least likely to incur restrictions or vaccine hesitancy.
The downside was that first deliveries from this second order were not available to July.
So prior to July vaccine supply was about 60000 doses per week only.
Then July 1million doses for the month 1.5 million doses for August. So Tuesday this week 56000 doses were administered in a single day, and the ramp up still increasing.
Then with covid found back into the community that day, the program was suspended for a day to implement our level 4 control protocols before resuming yesterday at reduced capacity. A result of the much more restrictive distancing practices, and probably more importantly as many staff were redeployed into testing sites to cope with the massive increase in testing demand our outbreak has caused. Measures are expected to continue to speed up the program even with the new operating restraints.
Just announced yesterday though vaccinating will now include ages 12 and up was 16 and up effective immediately. Two 13 year old twins immediatly joined their mother on her scheduled first dose. It is still intended that by year end all eligible people should have been able to be fully vaccinated.
At this stage also we cannot expect any relaxation of border controls until at least all eligible people have had reasonable chance to get vaccinated.
Right now out priority is to eliminate the current outbreak of 30 known cases and get back to life without covid induced restrictions bar those operating at our border. More info will come with the PMs press conference in half an hour.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5909
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:15 am

Toenga wrote:
At this stage also we cannot expect any relaxation of border controls until at least all eligible people have had reasonable chance to get vaccinated.
Right now out priority is to eliminate the current outbreak of 30 known cases and get back to life without covid induced restrictions bar those operating at our border. More info will come with the PMs press conference in half an hour.


I am still somewhat puzzled by what the end game is for NZ, OZ and all the Asian nations that seem to still pursue zero-Covid policies...
Even a largely vaccinated population does not prevent infection waves, nor completely eliminates hospitalizations or even deaths.

Where is the line drawn and how do they go from 'We cannot accept a single Covid case' to 'Catching Covid is now acceptable' ?

Given that Covid will likely end up being endemic, zero-Covid policies are essentially doomed to fail over time, or at least doomed to strict self-isolation and harsh restrictions forever.
Granted, if you're going to make the switch, you want to wait until as much as the population as possible is vaccinated, which makes sense, but I've always wondered how, on a political and psychological level, these nations will go from considering Covid an inacceptable threat to accepting that it will spread among people and make many sick, even kill quite a few people.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 15988
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:21 am

Francoflier wrote:
Toenga wrote:
At this stage also we cannot expect any relaxation of border controls until at least all eligible people have had reasonable chance to get vaccinated.
Right now out priority is to eliminate the current outbreak of 30 known cases and get back to life without covid induced restrictions bar those operating at our border. More info will come with the PMs press conference in half an hour.


I am still somewhat puzzled by what the end game is for NZ, OZ and all the Asian nations that seem to still pursue zero-Covid policies...
Even a largely vaccinated population does not prevent infection waves, nor completely eliminates hospitalizations or even deaths.

Where is the line drawn and how do they go from 'We cannot accept a single Covid case' to 'Catching Covid is now acceptable' ?

Given that Covid will likely end up being endemic, zero-Covid policies are essentially doomed to fail over time, or at least doomed to strict self-isolation and harsh restrictions forever.
Granted, if you're going to make the switch, you want to wait until as much as the population as possible is vaccinated, which makes sense, but I've always wondered how, on a political and psychological level, these nations will go from considering Covid an inacceptable threat to accepting that it will spread among people and make many sick, even kill quite a few people.


The logic escapes me as well. Only a combination of widely implemented vaccination and mask protocols for given situations will be successful. Limiting the movement of people is neither effective or necessary if the prior two conditions are met.
 
Derico
Posts: 4499
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:38 am

Asia-Pacific governments have made Covid Zero policies THEIR Raison d'être. They sold the idea to the people there that the virus can disappear from their societies.

A failure to the deliver in this negates any reason for their mandate to be in power, and would either end the political careers of any of those politicians that must stand for reelections in democratic regimes, or seriously undermine the authority of the government in one-party systems.

Now, given the transmission rate of the latest strains compared to the original one, plus the near universality of virus circulation in most of the world, COVID zero means a 100%, perfect and relentless isolation from the rest of the planet, until the end of time. Not one outsider allowed in, not one person allowed to go out. But these countries are still operating under the guidelines for isolation that "barely" worked with the original strain and when the infection rate in the world was far far lower.

The current situation requires a complete shutdown of any incoming or outbound human flow, permanently. It now should also involve banning most imports as well, and irradiating those products or materials that will not be affected by the process to lessen contamination risk. If there is 2000% more viral load in the new strains, and the virus is now ubiquitous in most environments, t stands to reason that more of this more contagious virus will be found in random surfaces or objects. All airlines should be completely halted too, as well as all diplomatic excemptions. Since they refuse to REALLY seal off (because of course it's "do as we say not as we do" from the governments, they can still run around), that's why you are witnessing one by one the Covid Zero countries fail. From Thailand, To VIetnam, to Singapore, to the island of Taiwan, to then Australia, to then mainland China, to now New Zealand. It's not a crazy coincidence. Virtually all of the leaks of the virus occurred with air crew, diplomats, or somehow excempted individuals.

The more time passes, the more airproof these countries will need to be to keep the virus out. Eventually they will even need to find a way to control air and water currents, as well as animal migratory flows, as the virus surely will be endemic there as well.

Good luck to them in their "Earth 0.0", and their perpetual isolation (and still locking down).

That is, unless you are Nicole Kidman. (and shame on her).
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 7

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Aaron747, ArchGuy1, bpatus297, leader1, lightsaber, pune, sierrakilo44, skyservice_330, VolvoBus and 29 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos