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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:59 am

Some Florida hospitals reporting they are running into shortages on oxygen:

https://www.wmfe.org/survey-68-florida- ... gen/188797
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:45 am

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A fascinating link on why Delta is so transmittable:
https://www.financialexpress.com/lifest ... 6871/lite/
A study in China’s Guangzhou found that high infectiousness even in pre-symptomatic phases was a reason behind the delta’s rapid spread. This means people are likely to spread the virus even before suspicion of themselves being infected arises.

A recent study led by University of Hong Kong Epidemiologist Benjamin Cowling found that symptoms were manifesting 5.8 days after Delta infections — 1.8 days after first testing positive for viral RNA. This leaves a dangerous window for transmission.

The study found that 74 per cent of delta infections occurred during the pre-symptomatic period. The Delta’s R-naught, representing the number of individuals a single infected person can transmit the disease to on an average, is 6.4. The Wuhan strain’s R-naught of the Wuhan strain, according to earlier studies done earlier, was between 2 and 4.


Ummm... roughly three quarters of infections are occuring when people feel well?!? If a test detects the virus, than the person is infectious... 1.8 days is basically two workdays, schooldays, or a weekend of feeling fine while being the next Typhoid Mary/Mack.

Rhoo Rhoo.

Lightsaber

But wasn't presymptomatic transmission a characteristic for other, including the original, novel coronavirus variants?
Also, it shows the uselessness of requiring negative PCR result "within 72 hours of departure"

Delta is far worse. Prior variants didn't have 74% of transmission before symptoms.

The PCR test still has merits. It will slow the spread.

It is just that much more difficult.

Lightsaber

What I mean is, the requirement shouldn't be "within 72 hours", instead it should be some shorter time, as 72 hours already exceed the time that can make one person go from presymptomatic to start infection and then to show symptom.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:29 am

R0 of 6 means that the entire World is infected within less than 13 infection cycles (which can be as little as a week with Delta).

Of course, it will likely take more time than this since it is a bit hindered in crossing borders and by some local restrictions, but it will get there eventually.

It is only a matter of time before everyone in the World has been exposed to Covid on way or another and it will happen relatively quickly with Delta.
On the plus side, the candle that burns twice as bright burns half as long...
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:56 pm

When talking vaccines I like numbers.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch


Vaccinated chance/ratio unvaccinated
Test +ve 0.63% 4.9X
Hospitalizations 0.017% 29.2X
Death 0.0018% (prior discussion high multiple)

Vaccines are helping, we just need boosters and more of the unvacs to get vaccinated to slow the spread.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:09 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
But wasn't presymptomatic transmission a characteristic for other, including the original, novel coronavirus variants?
Also, it shows the uselessness of requiring negative PCR result "within 72 hours of departure"

Delta is far worse. Prior variants didn't have 74% of transmission before symptoms.

The PCR test still has merits. It will slow the spread.

It is just that much more difficult.

Lightsaber

What I mean is, the requirement shouldn't be "within 72 hours", instead it should be some shorter time, as 72 hours already exceed the time that can make one person go from presymptomatic to start infection and then to show symptom.

"Better is the enemy of good enough."
While a shorter required interval would be slightly better, having one fixed metric helps clear confusion. It takes too long to get PCR tests to pull this in.

What I would like to see is rapid testing at the airports (say before entry into building). In addition. If the rapid test is+ve, have a team ready for quick diagnosis to rule out false +ves, we need to be fair).
https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/ ... tests.html

Of course this adds an hour and expense, not to mention we're not setup for this. This literally requires a new station.

I'd like to know more about Singapore's ART test. Could that be used at the airport?
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapo ... ab-1365496

There would need to be an onsite lab to correct false +ves, but as such a high fraction would be caught...

PCR turn times are typically 48 hours (see above link) which forces the 72 hour clock. I'm probably not communicating clearly, I am advocating a layered approach:
1. Only vaccinated travel on aircraft, excluding patients in med transport aircraft. Children too young for vaccines exempt.
2. PCR within 72 hours (for accuracy, but slowness of test forces long 3 day delay).
3. Rapid test at airport.

This is, I know, extreme, but needed to stop the spread.

Lightsaber
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:51 pm

Francoflier wrote:
R0 of 6 means that the entire World is infected within less than 13 infection cycles (which can be as little as a week with Delta).

Of course, it will likely take more time than this since it is a bit hindered in crossing borders and by some local restrictions, but it will get there eventually.

It is only a matter of time before everyone in the World has been exposed to Covid on way or another and it will happen relatively quickly with Delta.
On the plus side, the candle that burns twice as bright burns half as long...


This was observed in the UK, the cases spiked and peaked in July and dropped off.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08 ... -ours.html

What is needed (which many don't want to hear) is that we need a certain baseline of vaccination and we have to let the virus loose and burn itself out to the endemic virus is will be. Trying to keep the virus at a slow burn will extend the pandemic. It might save lives but it is delaying exactly what you are saying.

I think we should hold on to restrictions perhaps until we get approval for kids 5 and older to be vaccinated and perhaps give it 1-2 months after to let the vaccine kick in. After that, drop the restrictions and lets get on with this.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:43 pm

StarAC17 wrote:

I think we should hold on to restrictions perhaps until we get approval for kids 5 and older to be vaccinated and perhaps give it 1-2 months after to let the vaccine kick in. After that, drop the restrictions and lets get on with this.

What is the medical plan? E.g., an uncle of mine was informed he needs a stint, but since his hospital is in "black status," he cannot have the opperation.

I happen to agree after age 2+ vaccine and boosters for all willing. The unvaccinated have made a decision, it is time to let it burn out, but this will bad. Really bad. Scary bad. I see no alternative after children's vaccines.

Lightsaber
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:31 pm

DeSantis mask ban in schools in Florida has been ruled unconstitutional:

Florida Judge Throws Out Gov. Ron DeSantis' Order Prohibiting Masks In Schools

Source: NPR
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:58 pm

Study Shows Natural Immunity To COVID Is Superior To Vaccination

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/ends ... s-stopping

At the very least, the results of the study are good news for patients who have already successfully battled COVID but show the challenge of relying exclusively on immunizations to move past the pandemic.

"This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the delta variant," the researchers said.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:14 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
Study Shows Natural Immunity To COVID Is Superior To Vaccination

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/ends ... s-stopping

At the very least, the results of the study are good news for patients who have already successfully battled COVID but show the challenge of relying exclusively on immunizations to move past the pandemic.

"This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the delta variant," the researchers said.




Yeah , but you are 15 times more likely to die from being unvaccinated and getting the infection , than if you had the vaccination in the first place. these researchers are using data from subjects that made it past the first gate.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:25 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0057100
A study claim the effectiveness of masks like R95 (R95 are like N95 but also filter oily particles) or KN95 are less effective when acting as source control for aerosolized olive oil with 1 micron diameter than one would hope for from mask material, only at 60% and 46% respectively, but are still better than surgical masks or cloth masks at 12% and 10% respectively, due to fitness and leakage. It also seems to suggest ventilation are more effective than masking at preventing the spread of novel coronavirus via aerosol.


DIRECTFLT wrote:
Study Shows Natural Immunity To COVID Is Superior To Vaccination

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/ends ... s-stopping

At the very least, the results of the study are good news for patients who have already successfully battled COVID but show the challenge of relying exclusively on immunizations to move past the pandemic.

"This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the delta variant," the researchers said.


This has been a huge point of frustration for me. Whether its Fauci, news anchors or whoever, people on TV are constantly saying things like "masks work", "if you've had COVID you still need to get vaccinated", "the science is clear" and so forth. Its pretty obvious that they selectively chose to only highlight the studies that support their narrative and ignore any evidence that might undermine it.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:32 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0057100
A study claim the effectiveness of masks like R95 (R95 are like N95 but also filter oily particles) or KN95 are less effective when acting as source control for aerosolized olive oil with 1 micron diameter than one would hope for from mask material, only at 60% and 46% respectively, but are still better than surgical masks or cloth masks at 12% and 10% respectively, due to fitness and leakage. It also seems to suggest ventilation are more effective than masking at preventing the spread of novel coronavirus via aerosol.


DIRECTFLT wrote:
Study Shows Natural Immunity To COVID Is Superior To Vaccination

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/ends ... s-stopping

At the very least, the results of the study are good news for patients who have already successfully battled COVID but show the challenge of relying exclusively on immunizations to move past the pandemic.

"This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the delta variant," the researchers said.


This has been a huge point of frustration for me. Whether its Fauci, news anchors or whoever, people on TV are constantly saying things like "masks work", "if you've had COVID you still need to get vaccinated", "the science is clear" and so forth. Its pretty obvious that they selectively chose to only highlight the studies that support their narrative and ignore any evidence that might undermine it.



What is undermined?
If you read the actual study it states that the vaccines help , even on top of better odds. But the rub is that there are some really uneducated folks out there that don't realize that to make it to this point, you have to have had the virus and survive it. 97+% of the deaths we are seeing right now in the hospitals, are not from vaccinated people. It is from Unvaccinated folks. Would you rather get a free shot that saves you , or wait for the off chance you have it made in the shade?
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:30 pm

The only thing this study tells me it's that, once again, we will all get Covid at some stage.
For those who haven't had it yet, there's the choice of getting it with or without the vaccine.

Either way, you'll get your immunity. It's just that with the vaccine your chances of severe symptoms and death are an order of magnitude lower. At least.

Choosing not to vaccinate is the same as driving without a seatbelt because a study told you they don't prevent accidents in the first place...
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:29 pm

casinterest wrote:
What is undermined?
If you read the actual study it states that the vaccines help, even on top of better odds. But the rub is that there are some really uneducated folks out there that don't realize that to make it to this point, you have to have had the virus and survive it. 97+% of the deaths we are seeing right now in the hospitals, are not from vaccinated people. It is from Unvaccinated folks. Would you rather get a free shot that saves you , or wait for the off chance you have it made in the shade?

My point was that a lot of officials have only been using the amount of vaccinations to drive their policy and they always ignore previous infections when discussing how close we are to herd immunity. Right now based on recorded cases roughly 12% of the US population has had COVID, but in reality we know that number is actually quite a bit higher. Furthermore, there are undoubtedly those out there who have had COVID that don't want to get the vaccine. I'm sure they are thinking "Why should I get a vaccine that might make me feel ill for a few days when I already have protection due to my previous illness?"
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:55 am

lightsaber wrote:
"Better is the enemy of good enough."
While a shorter required interval would be slightly better, having one fixed metric helps clear confusion. It takes too long to get PCR tests to pull this in.

What I would like to see is rapid testing at the airports (say before entry into building). In addition. If the rapid test is+ve, have a team ready for quick diagnosis to rule out false +ves, we need to be fair).
https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/ ... tests.html

Of course this adds an hour and expense, not to mention we're not setup for this. This literally requires a new station.

I'd like to know more about Singapore's ART test. Could that be used at the airport?
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapo ... ab-1365496

There would need to be an onsite lab to correct false +ves, but as such a high fraction would be caught...

PCR turn times are typically 48 hours (see above link) which forces the 72 hour clock. I'm probably not communicating clearly, I am advocating a layered approach:
1. Only vaccinated travel on aircraft, excluding patients in med transport aircraft. Children too young for vaccines exempt.
2. PCR within 72 hours (for accuracy, but slowness of test forces long 3 day delay).
3. Rapid test at airport.

This is, I know, extreme, but needed to stop the spread.

Lightsaber

Quickest test available is antigen test. They only need 15 minutes but only have 90% accuracy.
Then it's fast PCR test. Which ahould be doable in 3 hours "COVID-19 PCR Testing(Self-financed inspection)|Nishitan-Clinic" https://pcr.nishitanclinic.jp/en/
I think these fast PCR tests were also the basis of Singapore-HK travel bubble being discussed before it fall off. According to the plan, flyers from HK were required to take a PCR test upon arrival at Singapore which will takes a few hours before they can be discharged from the airport.
Likewise, that's supposedly how when there was a small outbreak in Macau, they rrquired all travellers to Mainland China to have negative test certificate within only 12 hours before crossing the border.
 
stratosphere
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:30 am

casinterest wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Study Shows Natural Immunity To COVID Is Superior To Vaccination

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/ends ... s-stopping

At the very least, the results of the study are good news for patients who have already successfully battled COVID but show the challenge of relying exclusively on immunizations to move past the pandemic.

"This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the delta variant," the researchers said.




Yeah , but you are 15 times more likely to die from being unvaccinated and getting the infection , than if you had the vaccination in the first place. these researchers are using data from subjects that made it past the first gate.


Really says who? The people I know that are vaccinated that have COVID are sicker than the ones who are unvaccinated. My aunt is on a ventilator and fully vaccinated. I am vaccinated but I have no confidence in it since Delta came along. it is bypassing this vaccine but no one will admit it. They want everyone vaccinated and on the same page. Sorry I was on board but not anymore. I understand why my friends had concerns with this vaccine now more than ever. No boosters for me. I am going to keep my distance and mask up. This vaccine was supposed to offer some sense of normalcy to people now it doesn't so I have to say when people I know ask why should I get this vaccine I have no answer. Life for me is the same as it was a year and a half ago and I am vaccinated.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:53 am

stratosphere wrote:
casinterest wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Study Shows Natural Immunity To COVID Is Superior To Vaccination

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/ends ... s-stopping

At the very least, the results of the study are good news for patients who have already successfully battled COVID but show the challenge of relying exclusively on immunizations to move past the pandemic.

"This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the delta variant," the researchers said.




Yeah , but you are 15 times more likely to die from being unvaccinated and getting the infection , than if you had the vaccination in the first place. these researchers are using data from subjects that made it past the first gate.


Really says who? The people I know that are vaccinated that have COVID are sicker than the ones who are unvaccinated. My aunt is on a ventilator and fully vaccinated. I am vaccinated but I have no confidence in it since Delta came along. it is bypassing this vaccine but no one will admit it. They want everyone vaccinated and on the same page. Sorry I was on board but not anymore. I understand why my friends had concerns with this vaccine now more than ever. No boosters for me. I am going to keep my distance and mask up. This vaccine was supposed to offer some sense of normalcy to people now it doesn't so I have to say when people I know ask why should I get this vaccine I have no answer. Life for me is the same as it was a year and a half ago and I am vaccinated.


I ask again since you mention your aunt for the second time - what are her comorbidities? 'People I know' is not the quality of data doctors and public health analysts use in decision-making.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:36 am

stratosphere wrote:
This vaccine was supposed to offer some sense of normalcy to people now it doesn't so I have to say when people I know ask why should I get this vaccine I have no answer. Life for me is the same as it was a year and a half ago and I am vaccinated.


The vaccine was supposed to offer some degree of normalcy assuming most people took it...

Life for you is the same as it was last year because hospitals are currently overloaded with people who aren't vaccinated.

No amount of anecdotal evidence is going to change that.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:28 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
casinterest wrote:



Yeah , but you are 15 times more likely to die from being unvaccinated and getting the infection , than if you had the vaccination in the first place. these researchers are using data from subjects that made it past the first gate.


Really says who? The people I know that are vaccinated that have COVID are sicker than the ones who are unvaccinated. My aunt is on a ventilator and fully vaccinated. I am vaccinated but I have no confidence in it since Delta came along. it is bypassing this vaccine but no one will admit it. They want everyone vaccinated and on the same page. Sorry I was on board but not anymore. I understand why my friends had concerns with this vaccine now more than ever. No boosters for me. I am going to keep my distance and mask up. This vaccine was supposed to offer some sense of normalcy to people now it doesn't so I have to say when people I know ask why should I get this vaccine I have no answer. Life for me is the same as it was a year and a half ago and I am vaccinated.


I ask again since you mention your aunt for the second time - what are her comorbidities? 'People I know' is not the quality of data doctors and public health analysts use in decision-making.


It would be nice if some folks went out and read the below by Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted
World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
The Dragon In My Garage
http://people.whitman.edu/~herbrawt/cla ... /Sagan.pdf

It explains how science and data must deal with such hypotheticals.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:34 pm

Francoflier wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
This vaccine was supposed to offer some sense of normalcy to people now it doesn't so I have to say when people I know ask why should I get this vaccine I have no answer. Life for me is the same as it was a year and a half ago and I am vaccinated.


The vaccine was supposed to offer some degree of normalcy assuming most people took it...

Life for you is the same as it was last year because hospitals are currently overloaded with people who aren't vaccinated.

No amount of anecdotal evidence is going to change that.


My state now has 65% of adults with one dose (AZ or Pfizer) and 35% with two doses. Our current outbreak is still seeing and R0 of around 1.3 (down from between 7 and 9 at the beginning of the outbreak), even with vaccination and a pretty strong lockdown (work from home if you can, takeaway food only, curfews in some areas and testing or vaccination to move out of those areas).

On the plus side, none of the 120 or so people in ICU are fully vaccinated.

We are looking towards at least 70% of adults fully vaccinated by October, after a very slow start (supply issues). 12-15yo can book fomr 13 Sept onwards.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:39 pm

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2021083000595&g=soc
Japan found a case of Delta featuring N501S mutation, being the 8th such discovered case in the world, which is a mutation at the same location as N501Y. With the number of infected case still small it's hard to tell what the mutation's effect might be, but if it's like N501Y as seen in the strain fron UK then it might be able to further increase Delta's infectivity

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesn ... ous/805573
In South Africa, there is now a new strain, named C.1.2, whivh is reportedly mutating faster than other existing strains by a factor of 1.7× at 41.8 mutations/year. It's prevalence in South Africa is still low but is increasing fast, similar to trajectory of some other VOI/VOC. It also share mutations like N501Y and E484K as found in other VOI/VOC. Some other countries have also discovered the strain per other news. The C.1.2 strain is also surprising in that it came fron C.1 strain which was mainly marked with the D614G mutation and were popular in last spring to summer and was then decreasing in prevalence until earlier this year.
 
luckyone
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:20 pm

stratosphere wrote:
casinterest wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Study Shows Natural Immunity To COVID Is Superior To Vaccination

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/ends ... s-stopping

At the very least, the results of the study are good news for patients who have already successfully battled COVID but show the challenge of relying exclusively on immunizations to move past the pandemic.

"This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the delta variant," the researchers said.




Yeah , but you are 15 times more likely to die from being unvaccinated and getting the infection , than if you had the vaccination in the first place. these researchers are using data from subjects that made it past the first gate.


Really says who? The people I know that are vaccinated that have COVID are sicker than the ones who are unvaccinated. My aunt is on a ventilator and fully vaccinated. I am vaccinated but I have no confidence in it since Delta came along. it is bypassing this vaccine but no one will admit it. They want everyone vaccinated and on the same page. Sorry I was on board but not anymore. I understand why my friends had concerns with this vaccine now more than ever. No boosters for me. I am going to keep my distance and mask up. This vaccine was supposed to offer some sense of normalcy to people now it doesn't so I have to say when people I know ask why should I get this vaccine I have no answer. Life for me is the same as it was a year and a half ago and I am vaccinated.

Casual observation makes for lousy medicine because correlation does not equal causation. You may just have a particularly at risk group of acquaintances. At my hospital (and those of most of my physician colleagues across the country) the unvaccinated people on a vent outnumber those vaccinated by roughly 10 to 1 (ie there is less than one one vaccinated person for every ten unvaccinated, which indicates the vaccines are doing what they're supposed to do and keep hospital requirements significantly down). At my former place of work (about 2500 miles from where I currently live) there are 18 COVID admissions out of approximately 200 beds, so 20% of admissions are COVID. Not one has been vaccinated.
 
Derico
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:53 pm

Francoflier wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
This vaccine was supposed to offer some sense of normalcy to people now it doesn't so I have to say when people I know ask why should I get this vaccine I have no answer. Life for me is the same as it was a year and a half ago and I am vaccinated.


The vaccine was supposed to offer some degree of normalcy assuming most people took it...

Life for you is the same as it was last year because hospitals are currently overloaded with people who aren't vaccinated.

No amount of anecdotal evidence is going to change that.


This (stratosphere's) viewpoint is a typical one around the world, owing to the abominably poor messaging by governments. This is what happens when elected officials are tasked with relaying medical facts.

Try to imagine if the popularity (and thus election or reelection) of a public official anywhere in the world, depended on how they handled notifying family members waiting at ER rooms of the status of their loved one, and the future prospects of recovery...

As for the NEW South African variant, if it is true that it completely evades vaccines, well, the world deserves it. For being so selfish, or for at the very least, not having as of yet ONE global meeting on the Pandemic to iron a global strategy.

When everyone on the boat is rowing in all different directions, no one avoids the imminent waterfall.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:44 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2021083000595&g=soc
Japan found a case of Delta featuring N501S mutation, being the 8th such discovered case in the world, which is a mutation at the same location as N501Y. With the number of infected case still small it's hard to tell what the mutation's effect might be, but if it's like N501Y as seen in the strain fron UK then it might be able to further increase Delta's infectivity

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesn ... ous/805573
In South Africa, there is now a new strain, named C.1.2, whivh is reportedly mutating faster than other existing strains by a factor of 1.7× at 41.8 mutations/year. It's prevalence in South Africa is still low but is increasing fast, similar to trajectory of some other VOI/VOC. It also share mutations like N501Y and E484K as found in other VOI/VOC. Some other countries have also discovered the strain per other news. The C.1.2 strain is also surprising in that it came fron C.1 strain which was mainly marked with the D614G mutation and were popular in last spring to summer and was then decreasing in prevalence until earlier this year.


I am suspect that any variant will evade all vaccines entirely, then we have a new virus. If the vaccine reduces symptoms then its doing its job, this needs to be made clear.
Even the 40% effective flu shot does this and influenza is much faster mutating virus than Covid is.

I have heard infection disease specialists say that 15-20 different types of antibodies are used to neutralize a virus and not all of the proteins can be changed at once so if vaccinated or previously infected there will still be some degree of immune response involved if infected by a variant.

This constant reporting suggests that Covid is some kind of superbug and that doesn't seem to be the case. All of these mutations seem to happen in a similar manner regardless of where in the world they happen. I think it was said of the Lambda variant is that is has observable mutations that have been seen in other variants.

Francoflier wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
This vaccine was supposed to offer some sense of normalcy to people now it doesn't so I have to say when people I know ask why should I get this vaccine I have no answer. Life for me is the same as it was a year and a half ago and I am vaccinated.


The vaccine was supposed to offer some degree of normalcy assuming most people took it...

Life for you is the same as it was last year because hospitals are currently overloaded with people who aren't vaccinated.

No amount of anecdotal evidence is going to change that.


I have my doubts that even if there was to be a 100% take up that much would change now in terms of public health measures because I think there are still many in public health that think that this thing can be contained like Measles and Polio or eradicated like Smallpox. There has yet to be full on acceptance that this virus is going to be endemic and a seasonal virus. We need as many people vaccinated to ensure they don't get sick enough to overwhelm the hospitals but not in the realization that Covid will someday be gone. It won't be gone.

I fully expect lockdowns this fall and winter because there will be tons of vaccinated of people with colds from Covid and even with vaccine passports cases will skyrocket and the threat of hospitalizations will cause them to happen again. In reality the wave will be manageable if vaccinations only if vaccinations are high which they easily can be.

I think human arrogance plays a part in this and we think we have control of nature because we have beaten past infectious diseases and that we can contain them all.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:18 pm

India charges WHO Scientist Soumya Swaminathan for Mass Murder: The beginning of Accountability

India is a forefront nation in demanding accountability from the WHO, the Indian Bar Association (IBA) now suing WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan.

They are accusing her of causing the deaths of many Indian citizens by misleading them about the effect of Ivermectin, which she stated did not work against Covid-19.

As a result, the use of Ivermectin to cure Covid-19 was stopped and Covid cases exploded with deaths increasing ten-fold.

https://hannenabintuherland.com/asia/in ... ntability/
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:26 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
India charges WHO Scientist Soumya Swaminathan for Mass Murder: The beginning of Accountability

India is a forefront nation in demanding accountability from the WHO, the Indian Bar Association (IBA) now suing WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan.

They are accusing her of causing the deaths of many Indian citizens by misleading them about the effect of Ivermectin, which she stated did not work against Covid-19.

As a result, the use of Ivermectin to cure Covid-19 was stopped and Covid cases exploded with deaths increasing ten-fold.

https://hannenabintuherland.com/asia/in ... ntability/


Do you read what you post? This isn't India suing. It is a bunch of incompetent lawyers looking for money.


In the real world , Soumya Swaminathan is a hero.

https://zeenews.india.com/india/who-chi ... 89120.html
Taking to microblogging site Twitter, Dr Soumya Swaminathan wrote, "India achieves 50% coverage (at least one dose) of adult populn - > 620 million doses administered, 10 million in the past day! Congratulations to the thousands of personnel involved. Vaccination, along with public health & individual preventive measures will protect everyone!"


Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi too applauded the feat calling it 'momentous'. "Record vaccination numbers today! Crossing 1 crore is a momentous feat. Kudos to those getting vaccinated and those making the vaccination drive a success," PM Modi tweeted.
 
Pi7472000
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 03, 2021 2:57 am

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/08/1 ... australia/

https://lynnwoodtimes.com/2021/08/30/au ... -protests/

Is this an accurate description of Australia today? I do not think it is. Australia has done very well compared to the U.S. and Europe during COVID. It seems the strict measures are popular in Australia as they have a very low COVID rate.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:19 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/08/17/the-authoritarian-takeover-of-australia/

https://lynnwoodtimes.com/2021/08/30/au ... -protests/

Is this an accurate description of Australia today? I do not think it is. Australia has done very well compared to the U.S. and Europe during COVID. It seems the strict measures are popular in Australia as they have a very low COVID rate.


No. That is anit-authoritarian trash which fundamentally misrepresents the mood in Australia. Especially in NSW and Victoria, where they are currently growing outbreaks, there is zero public sympathy for rulebreakers.

Australia still has a much higher level of trust in government than many countries, and we also respect the independent advice of health authorities. The current Covid caseload is the highest it has been since the Pandemic began (we have reached elimination several times). In our nation of 25 million people, there have been a little over 1,000 Covid deaths. That said, our national government has been outrageously poor in its leadership, although not actively conspiracist and misleading like the former US president.

Most people have recognised that lockdown has been the best response to manage outbreaks, and most people have been compliant. Victoria still rejoices in its success last year in reaching elimination from a caseload of around 18,000.

But we are seeing a few things:
- lockdown is no longer having the quick impacts once Delta variant is in the community. My city of 6 million has been locked down for 10 weeks (work from home directions (apart from essential workers, although that is broadly defined), takeaway food only from restuarants, and all entertainment venues closed, mask wearing mandated outside the home, 5km radius travel restrictions, plus a 9pm-5am curfew in our work impacted suburbs. Our regions have been locked down for a shorter period. Melbourne (5 million pop) has been locked down for over 200 days of the pandemic
- vaccination rates are high and increasing. In NSW, over 70% of 16+ people have had their first dose, and 40% their second. It's expected that 80% of the adult population will be fully vaccinated by November
- given the vaccination rate, people are quite rightly looking for a plan out of lockdown and out of isolation. We have the challenge of a "elimination is best" mindset in an outbreak environment where elimination is unlikely to be achived even with high vaccination rates and lockdown. At least two of the 6 states are indicating they may not ease border restrictions, even with 80%+ adult vaccination.

As lockdowns wear on and vaccination increases, I am sensing that people are becoming more willing to risk caseload growth by easing restrictions. But the pathway is by no means clear. We are an immigrant nation and want to again see loved ones in person - but also know from those loved ones how our isloation and control measure have benefitted people.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:07 am

StarAC17 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:


I have my doubts that even if there was to be a 100% take up that much would change now in terms of public health measures because I think there are still many in public health that think that this thing can be contained like Measles and Polio or eradicated like Smallpox. There has yet to be full on acceptance that this virus is going to be endemic and a seasonal virus. We need as many people vaccinated to ensure they don't get sick enough to overwhelm the hospitals but not in the realization that Covid will someday be gone. It won't be gone.

I fully expect lockdowns this fall and winter because there will be tons of vaccinated of people with colds from Covid and even with vaccine passports cases will skyrocket and the threat of hospitalizations will cause them to happen again. In reality the wave will be manageable if vaccinations only if vaccinations are high which they easily can be.

I think human arrogance plays a part in this and we think we have control of nature because we have beaten past infectious diseases and that we can contain them all.


A large vaccine uptake would certainly reduce the load on healthcare systems, but whether it would reduce the restrictions and public health measures is entirely dependent on the way every nation views and deals with Covid.
I think that Europe and North America, generally speaking, are better in responding to the threat more with a view of reducing its general impact on public healthcare. Other nations, mostly East, still view Covid as an inacceptable threat and consider Covid-zero the only approach.

I can't see lockdowns happening in the first group this winter or during the next wave (I still very doubt there is a large seasonal effect with this virus). In these nations, after several waves and large vaccination campaigns, most people will possess some amount of antibodies (as proven by a study in the UK recently).
In the second group however, the lockdowns, border closures, quarantines and other harsh measures will certainly continue for as long as there is a will to avoid infections at all cost. In theory, since Covid isn't about to disappear any time soon, this means for the foreseeable future...

I agree that vaccines are not the panacea. They only give partial immunity, enough to give the body some ammo against the virus and to avoid the worst (ICU/death) in most cases. A fully vaccinated population will still see some level of spread, hospitalization and deaths in successive waves, though to a much lower degree.
Yet, the only way out of this is to gradually build immunity to it, like we've done one way or the other with all the other infectious diseases we live with which we can't eliminate.
I can't see any other way to do this than to vaccinate as much as possible to establish an immunity 'baseline' and then to let natural exposure complete the overall immunity to a degree where the virus doesn't cause any more misery than any of the other viruses out there.
There was that BBC article recently in which epidemiologists argued that natural exposure would give a better immunity than vaccines alone, which are a bit too targeted against an ever evolving foe.

I agree that a lot of the restrictive measures imposed on the population everywhere stems from arrogance and the belief that we either have the power to stop this or that we can hide and cower until it magically goes away, along with the hyper-sensationalistic nature of the media coverage that has surrounded it, creating irrational fear and panic and their associated reactions.
Everyone will eventually have to reckon that this will not go away and that we will all get infected at some stage.
Imposing harsh restrictions on society other than to wait for enough vaccine coverage or manage the healthcare system is unreasonable and unsustainable. Preventing infection for the only sake of preventing infection is pointless, as is hoping for global elimination.

It is time for pragmatism and to acknowledge that there is only so much we can do. Human misery exists outside of Covid - in fact, mostly outside of Covid - and we seem to not care about that all that much...
Humans are not rational beings I guess.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:05 am

Elimination as practiced in NZ, and until very recently practiced by all of Australia, was introduced to avoid similar catastrophic overloading by covid of health systems to that experienced in New York and Italy. At that stage vaccines were somewhere in the future.
Apart from disruption to the very largely leisure travel, once outbreaks had been eliminated, life, and economic activity returned to very near pre covid normality. With pre delta, outbreaks from quarantine leakage were readily contained, and elimination re established. So a comfortable state of stability until medical science and our countries health services had delivered better treatments.
For a variety of slightly different supply reasons, the initial phase of vaccination was slow. But we had lots to observe how countries opened up with differing vaccination scenarios without any urgent need to participate yet ourselves.
We observed with increasing concern the massively increased transmission rates of delta, especially against our very low vaccination rates, but increased supplies both countries were more of less on track to be able to offer everybody the chance to get vaccinated by year end and then work out staged border reopening .
Unfortunately a border incursion of delta into NSW was met with a far from robust response, and the initial slow spread steadily gained momentum and seeded outbreaks in other Australian states and here in NZ all when vaccination rates all round were very low.
So the Australian States and NZ had to quickly work out what to do to minimise covid damage at least until high vaccination levels have been attained. NSW response was late imposition of local lockdowns and then enlarging them and increasing their severity as the outbreak continued to grow until they have announced almost triumphantly we all have to live with covid, just as more and more of their residents are in fact dying from it.
VIC QLD, WA and QLD have all extinguished small outbreaks with prompt imposition of lockdowns.
I sense considerable resentment in these states to having their response dictated by failure of the NS W response. But reseeding outbreaks from NSW have now made reestablishing elimination in VIC probably impossible. So now NSW and VIC have to survive until their vaccination levels can maintain covid to a rate that is sustainable within there health services. This looks like they will have to endure a sustained period of lockdown, more deaths, and very considerable , perhaps unsustainable pressure on their health systems.
Here in NZ our outbreak was undetected for ten days and covid was an uninvited guest at some large social functions. The predetermined response was stringent countrywide lockdown on detection of a single case as the best chance to reestablish elimination until our vaccination program is completed later this year. Inspite of prompt entry into stringent lockdown the outbreak has peaked higher at 84 daily cases and peaked later then wished for although currently is trending down nicely, 48 cases today. If we can re achieve elimination, and current signs are good, we can then largly return to normal, and have a much more controlled staged border reopening beginning early next year. With vaccination we will be able to tolerate higher levels of border incursions and some degree of community transmission. So more overseas arrivals, and softer entry procedures. Perhaps just a much larger scale version of what is being piloted on cruise liners at the moment.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Sep 04, 2021 11:05 pm

Just the clarify, when the CDC lists the US vaccination statistics does % of total population fully vaccinated actually refer to the fraction of the ENTIRE population or just the age group that is eligible to receive the vaccine? God forbid they change the parameters of "fully vaccinated" once the booster shots start to be rolled out.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... rate-total
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Sep 04, 2021 11:32 pm

I wonder if the unvaccinated could be held liable for spreading COVID and therefore charged with manslaughter, especially if they knowingly do this.
After all, several HIV positive men were convicted of grievous bodily harm when knowingly infecting other people with HIV.

https://nypost.com/2021/07/23/florida-m ... to-prison/
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... n-with-hiv
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Sep 04, 2021 11:51 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
I wonder if the unvaccinated could be held liable for spreading COVID and therefore charged with manslaughter, especially if they knowingly do this.
After all, several HIV positive men were convicted of grievous bodily harm when knowingly infecting other people with HIV.

https://nypost.com/2021/07/23/florida-m ... to-prison/
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... n-with-hiv

Not for that reason because, as I posted multiple times previously, once infected, the viral load and readiness to spread to other are no different between vaccinated and unvaccinated. The difference is lighter symptom and not as easy to be infected.
It might be applicable if, for example, someone know they're already infected, but still attend office or school
 
CometII
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:25 am

Looking at the European stats, Italy has been consistently outperforming the UK, France, and Spain, and more recently Germany too, in keeping cases under control, and also vaccination rates. I'm curious as to why this has not been highlighted at all in the international media.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Sep 05, 2021 9:19 am

CometII wrote:
Looking at the European stats, Italy has been consistently outperforming the UK, France, and Spain, and more recently Germany too


Italy has the highest Covid-death per capita of all Western European nations since the crisis started...
it also stands roughly in the middle of the European average for vaccinations, somewhere below Belgium, Spain or Portugal and slightly above Germany, The Netherlands or Austria, although all these nations are within a few percent of each other.

They were hit badly early on in the crisis, as you could argue that they were the first European nation to undergo a massive infection wave last year.
It may well be that their current wave is not as bad because most people will have already caught it there before or have been vaccinated.

We like to attribute the higher or lower infection and death figures to how nations individually react and behave but the truth is, there's only so much a government can do about the spread given their means and the characteristics of the nation they oversee. The virus will circulate no matter what and will eventually infect everyone on Earth given its prevalence, contagiousness and ability to mutate quickly.
That's why not getting vaccinated (by choice) is just about the stupidest thing one can do at the moment.
 
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SQ22
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:48 pm

A freindly reminder to provide links to your sources when stating facts, thanks.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Sep 05, 2021 2:29 pm

Francoflier wrote:
CometII wrote:
Looking at the European stats, Italy has been consistently outperforming the UK, France, and Spain, and more recently Germany too


Italy has the highest Covid-death per capita of all Western European nations since the crisis started...
it also stands roughly in the middle of the European average for vaccinations, somewhere below Belgium, Spain or Portugal and slightly above Germany, The Netherlands or Austria, although all these nations are within a few percent of each other.

They were hit badly early on in the crisis, as you could argue that they were the first European nation to undergo a massive infection wave last year.
It may well be that their current wave is not as bad because most people will have already caught it there before or have been vaccinated.

We like to attribute the higher or lower infection and death figures to how nations individually react and behave but the truth is, there's only so much a government can do about the spread given their means and the characteristics of the nation they oversee. The virus will circulate no matter what and will eventually infect everyone on Earth given its prevalence, contagiousness and ability to mutate quickly.
That's why not getting vaccinated (by choice) is just about the stupidest thing one can do at the moment.

UK's full open.up might actually encourage vaccination to protect themselves? Just guessing
 
CometII
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Sep 05, 2021 4:09 pm

Francoflier wrote:
CometII wrote:
Looking at the European stats, Italy has been consistently outperforming the UK, France, and Spain, and more recently Germany too


Italy has the highest Covid-death per capita of all Western European nations since the crisis started...
it also stands roughly in the middle of the European average for vaccinations, somewhere below Belgium, Spain or Portugal and slightly above Germany, The Netherlands or Austria, although all these nations are within a few percent of each other.

They were hit badly early on in the crisis, as you could argue that they were the first European nation to undergo a massive infection wave last year.
It may well be that their current wave is not as bad because most people will have already caught it there before or have been vaccinated.

We like to attribute the higher or lower infection and death figures to how nations individually react and behave but the truth is, there's only so much a government can do about the spread given their means and the characteristics of the nation they oversee. The virus will circulate no matter what and will eventually infect everyone on Earth given its prevalence, contagiousness and ability to mutate quickly.
That's why not getting vaccinated (by choice) is just about the stupidest thing one can do at the moment.


It's also the oldest country in the world, no?

UK and France, with similar population size, are doing far worse for weeks now, with daily cases well in excess of 10000 more cases than Italy. That cannot be explained by a wave all the way back in early 2020.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Sep 05, 2021 6:08 pm

CometII wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
CometII wrote:
Looking at the European stats, Italy has been consistently outperforming the UK, France, and Spain, and more recently Germany too


Italy has the highest Covid-death per capita of all Western European nations since the crisis started...
it also stands roughly in the middle of the European average for vaccinations, somewhere below Belgium, Spain or Portugal and slightly above Germany, The Netherlands or Austria, although all these nations are within a few percent of each other.

They were hit badly early on in the crisis, as you could argue that they were the first European nation to undergo a massive infection wave last year.
It may well be that their current wave is not as bad because most people will have already caught it there before or have been vaccinated.

We like to attribute the higher or lower infection and death figures to how nations individually react and behave but the truth is, there's only so much a government can do about the spread given their means and the characteristics of the nation they oversee. The virus will circulate no matter what and will eventually infect everyone on Earth given its prevalence, contagiousness and ability to mutate quickly.
That's why not getting vaccinated (by choice) is just about the stupidest thing one can do at the moment.


It's also the oldest country in the world, no?

UK and France, with similar population size, are doing far worse for weeks now, with daily cases well in excess of 10000 more cases than Italy. That cannot be explained by a wave all the way back in early 2020.

US's consecutively higher case count and Asia Pacific's continued under control situation ever since the start of pandemic until the spread of Delta and rollout of vaccines can directly be attributed to the result of how much they blocked the spread at the very beginning of the pandemic, as that become the background amount of case for national governments to deal with
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:39 pm

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 210915.htm
Hong Kong government committee say, due to number of report of teenagers having severe side effect like myocarditis after receiving Pfizer/Biontech vaccine, especially after second dose, although most case can recover and return from hospital safely, and after taking into account the relative low risk of Hong Kong with zero local case at the moment, they decided that teenagers still need to be vaccinated but they don't need to take second dose, only 1 dose of Pfizer vaccine is sufficient.
The committee also urge the government to push SinoVac providing more data on their vaccine safety among teenagers to provide them with another choice.

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 210916.htm
Amid the aforementioned change in guideline, the Education department say schools should not organize events like parents days, open days, campus visit, sports day or aqua sports day, but if they must organize such sports events, then all students participating in competitions need to be completely vaccinated, with the definition of completely vaccinated being adjusted to "14 days after first dose of vaccine".

https://www.laprensalatina.com/chile-be ... coronavac/
Chile have start vaccinating kids down to age of 6 using China's Sinovac vaccine, after previous approval.

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-09-15/
Moderna, after comparing follow up result of stage 3 trials, found that those in control group who were originally given placebo, and was only later given actual vaccines, have lower case rate and also lower severity rate than those who were originally in the trial group and taken the vaccine early.
They expect this will mean 600,000 additional case in fall and winter

In my opinion, The sheer amount of breakthrough infection expected mean, even if there are only very few of them will be severe, low percent * high total number still = relatively high total count of severe case among vaccinated.
 
melpax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:28 pm

[quote="Kent350787"][/quote]

The lockdown here in Melbourne is wearing people down, especially given the long lockdown that we had last year. The curfew & the 5km movement restrictions are the worst things at the moment, virtually all non-food retail is either closed or open for click & collect only, and hospitality is only allowed to remain open for take-away & delivery. We know that the lockdown is necessary, but it doesn't mean that we like it....

Luckily the area of Melbourne that I live in (outer Eastern suburbs) seems to have gotten off relatively lightly so far. The area is popular with Asian immigrants, a good number of whom lived through SARS, and have been taking things seriously since the start of the pandemic. Very rare to see an unmasked person in these parts. On the other hand, the Western & Northern suburbs have been hard-hit.

You also need to carry a 'permitted worker permit' if you have to travel to work. I had to go into the office last week for the first time in months. Just getting management approval & signing off the permit was a PITA. We've been told that things should start to ease up by November, hopefully.....
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:19 pm

melpax wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:


The lockdown here in Melbourne is wearing people down, especially given the long lockdown that we had last year. The curfew & the 5km movement restrictions are the worst things at the moment, virtually all non-food retail is either closed or open for click & collect only, and hospitality is only allowed to remain open for take-away & delivery. We know that the lockdown is necessary, but it doesn't mean that we like it....

Luckily the area of Melbourne that I live in (outer Eastern suburbs) seems to have gotten off relatively lightly so far. The area is popular with Asian immigrants, a good number of whom lived through SARS, and have been taking things seriously since the start of the pandemic. Very rare to see an unmasked person in these parts. On the other hand, the Western & Northern suburbs have been hard-hit.

You also need to carry a 'permitted worker permit' if you have to travel to work. I had to go into the office last week for the first time in months. Just getting management approval & signing off the permit was a PITA. We've been told that things should start to ease up by November, hopefully.....


I've been hearing frustration from Victorians that compiance with the lockdown is noticably lower than last year. Whether it's "lockdown fatigue" or a more specific frustration that simialr measure to last year still aren't turning things around yet is very unclear.

I'm just bored with the Sydney lockdown, but lucky I don't live 100m down the street, which is an "LGA of concern". Although Delta spreads like wildfire, especially in households, there are next to zero cases in half of Sydney and clusters are tending to be linked to other forms of disadvantage. This, with high vaccination rates, is why both NSW and Victorian governments are dribbling out small "freedoms" more regularly, to try and kepp people on board with physical control measures to allow high 2 dose vaccine coverage to be reached.
 
melpax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:45 pm

[quote="Kent350787"][/quote]

Yes, people haven't taken this lockdown as seriously as the previous ones. Was out earlier tonight getting dinner, the roads were nearly as busy as a normal Friday night, and this is with most shops closed!

Today's events here also haven't helped things. A lot of building sites have been hit with outbreaks, the health authorities yesterday ordered building sites to close their tea/lunch rooms. The construction union (which is the most militant union here) kicked off protests, with workers setting up lunch tables in the middle of city streets. With no action taken by Police. On the other hand, anti-lockdown protesters are planning a protest in the Melbourne CBD tomorrow. The police have announced they will be sealing off the downtown tomorrow, shutting down public transport for the day, and only allowing permitted workers & residents in...

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 58sn9.html
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:34 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
I have my doubts that even if there was to be a 100% take up that much would change now in terms of public health measures because I think there are still many in public health that think that this thing can be contained like Measles and Polio or eradicated like Smallpox. There has yet to be full on acceptance that this virus is going to be endemic and a seasonal virus. We need as many people vaccinated to ensure they don't get sick enough to overwhelm the hospitals but not in the realization that Covid will someday be gone. It won't be gone.

I fully expect lockdowns this fall and winter because there will be tons of vaccinated of people with colds from Covid and even with vaccine passports cases will skyrocket and the threat of hospitalizations will cause them to happen again. In reality the wave will be manageable if vaccinations only if vaccinations are high which they easily can be.

I think human arrogance plays a part in this and we think we have control of nature because we have beaten past infectious diseases and that we can contain them all.

Israel has been administering booster shots and their case numbers are now higher than ever before:

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-world-l ... es-1629310

"Cases of COVID-19 are surging in Israel despite the nation leading the world in vaccine booster shots.

The current wave of infections has surpassed numbers seen in previous outbreaks and bucks the recent downward trend.

Individuals 60 and older who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 have been eligible to receive a Pfizer booster shot in Israel since the end of July. In August, the age of eligibility for a booster shot was expanded to anyone over 40.

It was only last month that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Israel was doing the world a "great service" by administering the booster shots.

The rise in cases across the country may suggest that vaccination alone is not enough to completely halt the pandemic. Israel's director of public health services, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, said there was evidence of waning immunity against COVID in people who were vaccinated early on in Israel."
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:01 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
I have my doubts that even if there was to be a 100% take up that much would change now in terms of public health measures because I think there are still many in public health that think that this thing can be contained like Measles and Polio or eradicated like Smallpox. There has yet to be full on acceptance that this virus is going to be endemic and a seasonal virus. We need as many people vaccinated to ensure they don't get sick enough to overwhelm the hospitals but not in the realization that Covid will someday be gone. It won't be gone.

I fully expect lockdowns this fall and winter because there will be tons of vaccinated of people with colds from Covid and even with vaccine passports cases will skyrocket and the threat of hospitalizations will cause them to happen again. In reality the wave will be manageable if vaccinations only if vaccinations are high which they easily can be.

I think human arrogance plays a part in this and we think we have control of nature because we have beaten past infectious diseases and that we can contain them all.

Israel has been administering booster shots and their case numbers are now higher than ever before:

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-world-l ... es-1629310

"Cases of COVID-19 are surging in Israel despite the nation leading the world in vaccine booster shots.

The current wave of infections has surpassed numbers seen in previous outbreaks and bucks the recent downward trend.

Individuals 60 and older who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 have been eligible to receive a Pfizer booster shot in Israel since the end of July. In August, the age of eligibility for a booster shot was expanded to anyone over 40.

It was only last month that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Israel was doing the world a "great service" by administering the booster shots.

The rise in cases across the country may suggest that vaccination alone is not enough to completely halt the pandemic. Israel's director of public health services, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, said there was evidence of waning immunity against COVID in people who were vaccinated early on in Israel."

Israel has a 65 % vaccination rate. Remember they have antivaxxers as well.


And yet. the deaths are lower. I wonder why?

https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/il
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4168
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:44 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
I have my doubts that even if there was to be a 100% take up that much would change now in terms of public health measures because I think there are still many in public health that think that this thing can be contained like Measles and Polio or eradicated like Smallpox. There has yet to be full on acceptance that this virus is going to be endemic and a seasonal virus. We need as many people vaccinated to ensure they don't get sick enough to overwhelm the hospitals but not in the realization that Covid will someday be gone. It won't be gone.

I fully expect lockdowns this fall and winter because there will be tons of vaccinated of people with colds from Covid and even with vaccine passports cases will skyrocket and the threat of hospitalizations will cause them to happen again. In reality the wave will be manageable if vaccinations only if vaccinations are high which they easily can be.

I think human arrogance plays a part in this and we think we have control of nature because we have beaten past infectious diseases and that we can contain them all.

Israel has been administering booster shots and their case numbers are now higher than ever before:

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-world-l ... es-1629310

"Cases of COVID-19 are surging in Israel despite the nation leading the world in vaccine booster shots.

The current wave of infections has surpassed numbers seen in previous outbreaks and bucks the recent downward trend.

Individuals 60 and older who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 have been eligible to receive a Pfizer booster shot in Israel since the end of July. In August, the age of eligibility for a booster shot was expanded to anyone over 40.

It was only last month that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Israel was doing the world a "great service" by administering the booster shots.

The rise in cases across the country may suggest that vaccination alone is not enough to completely halt the pandemic. Israel's director of public health services, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, said there was evidence of waning immunity against COVID in people who were vaccinated early on in Israel."


Waning immunity is one thing but does this mean no immunity where a healthy vaccinated person has the same risk as an unvaccinated person. Breakthrough cases are fine if they are mild and people are not going to hospital and if you get the virus you will get a booster from the infection which is better than vaccine immunity. The doctors and experts are being very reckless when not actually saying this because the message is that the vaccines don't work if you say the immunity wanes without any context.

In my opinion that unless you are immune comprised or over 65 then a 3rd shot is moot at this point (unless variant targeted). Israel isn't doing a public service, they are using vaccines for their interests. This will backfire if all of the rich countries continue with 3rd or more doses while Covid spreads uncontrolled throughout the rest of the world. A vaccine resistant variant will emerge much faster in this case.

The FDA agrees and decided against 3rd doses for the majority of the US population.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/fda-pfize ... -1.6179533

The pandemic ends when.

A) People have had enough of the restrictions and this is becoming more an more a Rules for thee and not for me pandemic. Look at the Met Gala this week, an elite party where no masks were worn and all the people working the Gala had to.

Look at Obama's 60th birthday. We have an election in Canada on Monday and Trudeau at his rally's has been caught twice with very crowded events that exceed the gathering limits that have been outlined.

B) Enough people are either vaccinated or immune from natural infection that the virus poses a flu-like threat to people and the health care systems won't run the risk of being overwhelmed by acute care needs.

C) An affordable and accessible anti-viral or therapeutic is also available alongside a vaccine. This is an extra but when we look up at the biggest mistakes of this pandemic this will be the big failing that Covid will have in the history books.

casinterest wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
I have my doubts that even if there was to be a 100% take up that much would change now in terms of public health measures because I think there are still many in public health that think that this thing can be contained like Measles and Polio or eradicated like Smallpox. There has yet to be full on acceptance that this virus is going to be endemic and a seasonal virus. We need as many people vaccinated to ensure they don't get sick enough to overwhelm the hospitals but not in the realization that Covid will someday be gone. It won't be gone.

I fully expect lockdowns this fall and winter because there will be tons of vaccinated of people with colds from Covid and even with vaccine passports cases will skyrocket and the threat of hospitalizations will cause them to happen again. In reality the wave will be manageable if vaccinations only if vaccinations are high which they easily can be.

I think human arrogance plays a part in this and we think we have control of nature because we have beaten past infectious diseases and that we can contain them all.

Israel has been administering booster shots and their case numbers are now higher than ever before:

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-world-l ... es-1629310

"Cases of COVID-19 are surging in Israel despite the nation leading the world in vaccine booster shots.

The current wave of infections has surpassed numbers seen in previous outbreaks and bucks the recent downward trend.

Individuals 60 and older who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 have been eligible to receive a Pfizer booster shot in Israel since the end of July. In August, the age of eligibility for a booster shot was expanded to anyone over 40.

It was only last month that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Israel was doing the world a "great service" by administering the booster shots.

The rise in cases across the country may suggest that vaccination alone is not enough to completely halt the pandemic. Israel's director of public health services, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, said there was evidence of waning immunity against COVID in people who were vaccinated early on in Israel."

Israel has a 65 % vaccination rate. Remember they have antivaxxers as well.


And yet. the deaths are lower. I wonder why?

https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/il


Is this 65% of eligible or the total population? That is actually kind of low considering Canada is at 68% of the total population and 78% of the eligible population.

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... -coverage/

We also took the gamble to space out second doses to 120 days after the first dose. This narrowed when more supply was available but doing this actually might have extended the immunity for us.
 
melpax
Posts: 2179
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:25 am

'Freedom rally' protest in Melbourne. Most protestors couldn't get into the Melbourne CBD, which was sealed off by police, so the main protest was in inner-suburban Richmond

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 58srx.html

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavir ... 31fde5ecf3
 
melpax
Posts: 2179
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:17 am

TV reports - media were being attacked by protestors as well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxuqBZMfBlE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sj6XxNjPUek
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5054
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:34 pm

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... this-book/

It turns out this book, written before the current pandemic predicts a lot of the maladoptive reactions of a large population to any pandemic. Brutal reading. And I note that evolutionary behavior/morality underlies how humans react to these sorts of things.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5737
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:45 am

StarAC17 wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
I have my doubts that even if there was to be a 100% take up that much would change now in terms of public health measures because I think there are still many in public health that think that this thing can be contained like Measles and Polio or eradicated like Smallpox. There has yet to be full on acceptance that this virus is going to be endemic and a seasonal virus. We need as many people vaccinated to ensure they don't get sick enough to overwhelm the hospitals but not in the realization that Covid will someday be gone. It won't be gone.

I fully expect lockdowns this fall and winter because there will be tons of vaccinated of people with colds from Covid and even with vaccine passports cases will skyrocket and the threat of hospitalizations will cause them to happen again. In reality the wave will be manageable if vaccinations only if vaccinations are high which they easily can be.

I think human arrogance plays a part in this and we think we have control of nature because we have beaten past infectious diseases and that we can contain them all.

Israel has been administering booster shots and their case numbers are now higher than ever before:

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-world-l ... es-1629310

"Cases of COVID-19 are surging in Israel despite the nation leading the world in vaccine booster shots.

The current wave of infections has surpassed numbers seen in previous outbreaks and bucks the recent downward trend.

Individuals 60 and older who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 have been eligible to receive a Pfizer booster shot in Israel since the end of July. In August, the age of eligibility for a booster shot was expanded to anyone over 40.

It was only last month that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Israel was doing the world a "great service" by administering the booster shots.

The rise in cases across the country may suggest that vaccination alone is not enough to completely halt the pandemic. Israel's director of public health services, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, said there was evidence of waning immunity against COVID in people who were vaccinated early on in Israel."


Waning immunity is one thing but does this mean no immunity where a healthy vaccinated person has the same risk as an unvaccinated person. Breakthrough cases are fine if they are mild and people are not going to hospital and if you get the virus you will get a booster from the infection which is better than vaccine immunity. The doctors and experts are being very reckless when not actually saying this because the message is that the vaccines don't work if you say the immunity wanes without any context.

In my opinion that unless you are immune comprised or over 65 then a 3rd shot is moot at this point (unless variant targeted). Israel isn't doing a public service, they are using vaccines for their interests. This will backfire if all of the rich countries continue with 3rd or more doses while Covid spreads uncontrolled throughout the rest of the world. A vaccine resistant variant will emerge much faster in this case.

The FDA agrees and decided against 3rd doses for the majority of the US population.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/fda-pfize ... -1.6179533

The pandemic ends when.

A) People have had enough of the restrictions and this is becoming more an more a Rules for thee and not for me pandemic. Look at the Met Gala this week, an elite party where no masks were worn and all the people working the Gala had to.

Look at Obama's 60th birthday. We have an election in Canada on Monday and Trudeau at his rally's has been caught twice with very crowded events that exceed the gathering limits that have been outlined.

B) Enough people are either vaccinated or immune from natural infection that the virus poses a flu-like threat to people and the health care systems won't run the risk of being overwhelmed by acute care needs.

C) An affordable and accessible anti-viral or therapeutic is also available alongside a vaccine. This is an extra but when we look up at the biggest mistakes of this pandemic this will be the big failing that Covid will have in the history books.

casinterest wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
Israel has been administering booster shots and their case numbers are now higher than ever before:

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-world-l ... es-1629310

"Cases of COVID-19 are surging in Israel despite the nation leading the world in vaccine booster shots.

The current wave of infections has surpassed numbers seen in previous outbreaks and bucks the recent downward trend.

Individuals 60 and older who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 have been eligible to receive a Pfizer booster shot in Israel since the end of July. In August, the age of eligibility for a booster shot was expanded to anyone over 40.

It was only last month that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Israel was doing the world a "great service" by administering the booster shots.

The rise in cases across the country may suggest that vaccination alone is not enough to completely halt the pandemic. Israel's director of public health services, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, said there was evidence of waning immunity against COVID in people who were vaccinated early on in Israel."

Israel has a 65 % vaccination rate. Remember they have antivaxxers as well.


And yet. the deaths are lower. I wonder why?

https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/il


Is this 65% of eligible or the total population? That is actually kind of low considering Canada is at 68% of the total population and 78% of the eligible population.

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... -coverage/

We also took the gamble to space out second doses to 120 days after the first dose. This narrowed when more supply was available but doing this actually might have extended the immunity for us.

But is more breakthrough case what we want? They're likely undetected and that is what make the virus able to circulate among human population much more widespread-ly than the two coronaviruses more recently introduced into human population.
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