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melpax
Posts: 2177
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:25 am

More protests here in Melbourne this afternoon, this time building workers have demonstrated out the front of their union office (CFMEU), smashing the front of the building, and protesting against union leadership - all construction workers in Melbourne were ordered to at least have their first vaccination by the end of this week to be able to keep working. There are reports that the protest may have been hijacked by anti-vaxxers & far righters. Unskilled labourers at union building sites here earn well into 6-figures with overtime & shift penalties, so not a lot of sympathy for them in the general community, especially when most retail & hospitality have been ordered closed. The state government has responded tonight by closing the construction industry for at least 2 weeks, with the exception for critical infrastructure sites.

This was live to air
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xu70Zl1j95c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu2ZSMgWstk

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 58t96.html

Will be 'interesting' to see if anything happens tomorrow......
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4158
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:54 pm

c933103 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
Israel has been administering booster shots and their case numbers are now higher than ever before:

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-world-l ... es-1629310

"Cases of COVID-19 are surging in Israel despite the nation leading the world in vaccine booster shots.

The current wave of infections has surpassed numbers seen in previous outbreaks and bucks the recent downward trend.

Individuals 60 and older who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 have been eligible to receive a Pfizer booster shot in Israel since the end of July. In August, the age of eligibility for a booster shot was expanded to anyone over 40.

It was only last month that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Israel was doing the world a "great service" by administering the booster shots.

The rise in cases across the country may suggest that vaccination alone is not enough to completely halt the pandemic. Israel's director of public health services, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, said there was evidence of waning immunity against COVID in people who were vaccinated early on in Israel."


Waning immunity is one thing but does this mean no immunity where a healthy vaccinated person has the same risk as an unvaccinated person. Breakthrough cases are fine if they are mild and people are not going to hospital and if you get the virus you will get a booster from the infection which is better than vaccine immunity. The doctors and experts are being very reckless when not actually saying this because the message is that the vaccines don't work if you say the immunity wanes without any context.

In my opinion that unless you are immune comprised or over 65 then a 3rd shot is moot at this point (unless variant targeted). Israel isn't doing a public service, they are using vaccines for their interests. This will backfire if all of the rich countries continue with 3rd or more doses while Covid spreads uncontrolled throughout the rest of the world. A vaccine resistant variant will emerge much faster in this case.

The FDA agrees and decided against 3rd doses for the majority of the US population.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/fda-pfize ... -1.6179533

The pandemic ends when.

A) People have had enough of the restrictions and this is becoming more an more a Rules for thee and not for me pandemic. Look at the Met Gala this week, an elite party where no masks were worn and all the people working the Gala had to.

Look at Obama's 60th birthday. We have an election in Canada on Monday and Trudeau at his rally's has been caught twice with very crowded events that exceed the gathering limits that have been outlined.

B) Enough people are either vaccinated or immune from natural infection that the virus poses a flu-like threat to people and the health care systems won't run the risk of being overwhelmed by acute care needs.

C) An affordable and accessible anti-viral or therapeutic is also available alongside a vaccine. This is an extra but when we look up at the biggest mistakes of this pandemic this will be the big failing that Covid will have in the history books.

casinterest wrote:
Israel has a 65 % vaccination rate. Remember they have antivaxxers as well.


And yet. the deaths are lower. I wonder why?

https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/il


Is this 65% of eligible or the total population? That is actually kind of low considering Canada is at 68% of the total population and 78% of the eligible population.

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... -coverage/

We also took the gamble to space out second doses to 120 days after the first dose. This narrowed when more supply was available but doing this actually might have extended the immunity for us.

But is more breakthrough case what we want? They're likely undetected and that is what make the virus able to circulate among human population much more widespread-ly than the two coronaviruses more recently introduced into human population.


I assume you are referring to SARS and MERS. Those ones burned out on their own because they were far more deadly infection for infection (10% mortality for SARS, 30% for MERS). Also there was no evidence of being contagious pre-symptomatic so it was easy to quarantine and contact trace a person after symptoms show. Most people will quarantine themselves when actually sick so while SARS was probably just as contagious as Covid, the infected person was feeling pretty lousy when contagious where Covid can be spread 2-3 days before symptoms will present themselves, if at all.

I would think this would be more in the good news of the day. But communication is key here and in this area has been very inconsistent and this article sums it up fairly well.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.5591471

From what experts are communicating is that natural infection confers no natural immunity and its vaccine or bust.

People who were fully vaccinated or infected will lose antibodies over time but what they will have is T-cells that remember the pathogen and generate antibodies fast. You would gain immunity to the variants in some capacity from a breakthrough case and they aren't a threat to you. You would suffer a mild illness or none at all.
 
melpax
Posts: 2177
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:19 am

Another large protest happening in Melbourne again at the moment. Same as yesterday, construction workers protesting a 2-week shutdown of their industry, but the anti-vax crowd have taken over things. TV reporters have been attacked & harassed multiple times while on the air. Lots of heavily armed riot police in the city...

https://www.news.com.au/national/melbou ... 960849f403

https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/t ... 32c5ca3332

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxTxw_nS6u4
 
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Pellegrine
Posts: 2676
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:19 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Tue Sep 21, 2021 4:03 am

These covidiots need to die off. Science-based people like moi who use protections are sick of them...
 
melpax
Posts: 2177
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Tue Sep 21, 2021 4:31 am

Now blocking a major freeway - have never seen scenes like these before in Melbourne

https://www.facebook.com/theageAustrali ... 3896019883
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:44 pm

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202109210157.aspx

As the US seek to replace country-based travel rule with vaccination status, concerns have developed in Taiwan that whether it will make Taiwanese people more difficult if they want to visit the United States, as Taiwan with its low case rate is currently classified as a low risk country free from restrictions in the current US entry system, but its low case rate also caused it being deprioritized when pharmacies distribute their vaccines, not to mention the diplomatic circumstances Taiwan is in.
In addition, another inclarity is that, to compensate the lack of vaccine import, Taiwan have developed a few domestic vaccines, but so far they have only completed Phase 2 trial, and plan to complete Phase 3 Trial in the form of immuni-bridging, similar to Novavax. Yet US FDA seems to be cold on the idea of using immuno bridging for Phase 3 and thus there are concern whether such domestically developed vaccine lacking American recognition would isolate those population from America and other countries which might follow American policies, in addition since Taiwanese top officials like presidents are themselves vaccinated with Taiwanese domestic vaccines, there are concerns whether the potential lack of recognition is going to create diplomatic obstacles when Taiwanese officials in future plan to visit the US.
While the Taiwanese government claim such changes in US policy mainly affect countries currently on the US restriction list, this is apparently not something set in the stone yet

In my opinion, the US claim such requirement is to prevent travellers carrying the virus into the border doesn't really make sense due to commonness of breakthrough infection, and even though the vaccine can reduce the infection rate or even the infected viral load by two to four times, the US itself have more than two to four time the cases than a number of countries on its restriction list, while other countries at the peak of their outbreak when the US is between peaks can easily exceed two to four times the US's per capita case rate, hence I think the differences between countries on their possibility of infected and carrying the virus onto the US soil is more significant than one's vaccination status, and vaccination cannot replace quarantine in term of isolating pre-symptomatic cases, although the US doesn't really have a fictional quarantine system that can prevent quarantined individuals from soreading their viruses to others through persons they are in contract with according to my understanding
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:32 am

c933103 wrote:
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202109210157.aspx

As the US seek to replace country-based travel rule with vaccination status, concerns have developed in Taiwan that whether it will make Taiwanese people more difficult if they want to visit the United States(...)


Now, that's a bit rich coming from Taiwan.

Taiwan is one of these nations seeking to isolate itself from the rest of the World in an ultimately vain attempt to remain 'Zero-Covid', imposing strict quarantines and entry requirements to any visitor, including from the US.
Considering this, demanding unfettered access to the US or other nations is pure hypocrisy.

I am for reciprocal travel restrictions.
 
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c933103
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Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:04 am

Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202109210157.aspx

As the US seek to replace country-based travel rule with vaccination status, concerns have developed in Taiwan that whether it will make Taiwanese people more difficult if they want to visit the United States(...)


Now, that's a bit rich coming from Taiwan.

Taiwan is one of these nations seeking to isolate itself from the rest of the World in an ultimately vain attempt to remain 'Zero-Covid', imposing strict quarantines and entry requirements to any visitor, including from the US.
Considering this, demanding unfettered access to the US or other nations is pure hypocrisy.

I am for reciprocal travel restrictions.

Taiwan is now operating travel bubble with like Palau to allow for quarantine free travel, when both itself and destinations aren't having too many cases, even when there are now more than zero cases.
Entry from the US into Taiwan still require quarantine appears reasonable to me, as even vaccinated groups in the US still have significantly higher chance of being infected than the general population of Taiwan, and thus possess a greater risk of infecting other people around them when they enter Taiwan, even after the effect of vaccine is taken into account.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2030
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:27 am

c933103 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202109210157.aspx

As the US seek to replace country-based travel rule with vaccination status, concerns have developed in Taiwan that whether it will make Taiwanese people more difficult if they want to visit the United States(...)


Now, that's a bit rich coming from Taiwan.

Taiwan is one of these nations seeking to isolate itself from the rest of the World in an ultimately vain attempt to remain 'Zero-Covid', imposing strict quarantines and entry requirements to any visitor, including from the US.
Considering this, demanding unfettered access to the US or other nations is pure hypocrisy.

I am for reciprocal travel restrictions.

Taiwan is now operating travel bubble with like Palau to allow for quarantine free travel, when both itself and destinations aren't having too many cases, even when there are now more than zero cases.
Entry from the US into Taiwan still require quarantine appears reasonable to me, as even vaccinated groups in the US still have significantly higher chance of being infected than the general population of Taiwan, and thus possess a greater risk of infecting other people around them when they enter Taiwan, even after the effect of vaccine is taken into account.


The balancing of reciprocity with health risk is a very challenging one for zero/low-Covid countries when considering high risk countries. Vaccination isn't a silver bullet, but is a game changer for reopening. Even New Zealand's vaccination program is proceeding apace, and Australia appears likely to reach 80% of 16+ population fully vaccinated by November sometime.

I've been saying for a long time that reopening will be a significant political challenge for low-Covid countries, as it will result in increased cases and likely deaths. In a way the recent outbreaks in Sydney and Melbourne have eased the pathway for at least part of Australia. I suspect, however, that I'll be able to travel to the northen hemis[here freely before I'l be able to travel to the currently Covid-free other side of my country.
 
Toenga
Posts: 270
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:42 am

Reciprocity requires a broad equality of status nothing more and certainly nothing less.
 
melpax
Posts: 2177
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:34 am

Protests happening again in Melbourne today, they moved from the CBD to the Shrine of Rememberance, where police have moved them on using gas, pepper spray & rubber bullets. They're now apparently blocking one of the Citylink road tunnels.

As I posted in the Aus aviation thread, the TV choppers have been effectively grounded as CASA has imposed a no-fly zone over central Melbourne until Sunday, this was done at the request of police. The TV networks aren't happy as expected, and are looking at legal options to have this overturned.

TV reporters have been harassed on air again today, and the networks are now starting to use live blogger vision in their coverage, given that the bloggers are in the main protest group.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 58tou.html
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:45 am

c933103 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202109210157.aspx

As the US seek to replace country-based travel rule with vaccination status, concerns have developed in Taiwan that whether it will make Taiwanese people more difficult if they want to visit the United States(...)


Now, that's a bit rich coming from Taiwan.

Taiwan is one of these nations seeking to isolate itself from the rest of the World in an ultimately vain attempt to remain 'Zero-Covid', imposing strict quarantines and entry requirements to any visitor, including from the US.
Considering this, demanding unfettered access to the US or other nations is pure hypocrisy.

I am for reciprocal travel restrictions.

Taiwan is now operating travel bubble with like Palau to allow for quarantine free travel, when both itself and destinations aren't having too many cases, even when there are now more than zero cases.
Entry from the US into Taiwan still require quarantine appears reasonable to me, as even vaccinated groups in the US still have significantly higher chance of being infected than the general population of Taiwan, and thus possess a greater risk of infecting other people around them when they enter Taiwan, even after the effect of vaccine is taken into account.


If Taiwan wants to pursue a zero covid policy, that's fine and totally up to them. They have to understand however that, in a World where Covid is now pretty much ensured to remain with us forever and in which even large scale vaccination does not prevent the disease from spreading, this policy is doomed to strictly isolate them from the World forever.
If they refuse to open up to international travel, they should not expect to be allowed to do it themselves. Strict isolation also means keeping their citizens in to prevent them from bringing back the scary bug after all, unless they choose to just ignore their own constitution like some nations.
Not to mention that if they decide to implement their own border policies, they should not complain when other nations do the same. Some nations want 'zero-covid' bubbles, other nations want vaccine bubbles.

Covid sure is an interesting large scale philosophical experiment in realism vs. idealism...
 
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c933103
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Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:27 am

Kent350787 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

Now, that's a bit rich coming from Taiwan.

Taiwan is one of these nations seeking to isolate itself from the rest of the World in an ultimately vain attempt to remain 'Zero-Covid', imposing strict quarantines and entry requirements to any visitor, including from the US.
Considering this, demanding unfettered access to the US or other nations is pure hypocrisy.

I am for reciprocal travel restrictions.

Taiwan is now operating travel bubble with like Palau to allow for quarantine free travel, when both itself and destinations aren't having too many cases, even when there are now more than zero cases.
Entry from the US into Taiwan still require quarantine appears reasonable to me, as even vaccinated groups in the US still have significantly higher chance of being infected than the general population of Taiwan, and thus possess a greater risk of infecting other people around them when they enter Taiwan, even after the effect of vaccine is taken into account.


The balancing of reciprocity with health risk is a very challenging one for zero/low-Covid countries when considering high risk countries. Vaccination isn't a silver bullet, but is a game changer for reopening. Even New Zealand's vaccination program is proceeding apace, and Australia appears likely to reach 80% of 16+ population fully vaccinated by November sometime.

I've been saying for a long time that reopening will be a significant political challenge for low-Covid countries, as it will result in increased cases and likely deaths. In a way the recent outbreaks in Sydney and Melbourne have eased the pathway for at least part of Australia. I suspect, however, that I'll be able to travel to the northen hemis[here freely before I'l be able to travel to the currently Covid-free other side of my country.

Taiwan is now reaching 50% population getting 1-dose, but supply and type of vaccine continue to be an issue
 
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c933103
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Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:30 am

Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

Now, that's a bit rich coming from Taiwan.

Taiwan is one of these nations seeking to isolate itself from the rest of the World in an ultimately vain attempt to remain 'Zero-Covid', imposing strict quarantines and entry requirements to any visitor, including from the US.
Considering this, demanding unfettered access to the US or other nations is pure hypocrisy.

I am for reciprocal travel restrictions.

Taiwan is now operating travel bubble with like Palau to allow for quarantine free travel, when both itself and destinations aren't having too many cases, even when there are now more than zero cases.
Entry from the US into Taiwan still require quarantine appears reasonable to me, as even vaccinated groups in the US still have significantly higher chance of being infected than the general population of Taiwan, and thus possess a greater risk of infecting other people around them when they enter Taiwan, even after the effect of vaccine is taken into account.


If Taiwan wants to pursue a zero covid policy, that's fine and totally up to them. They have to understand however that, in a World where Covid is now pretty much ensured to remain with us forever and in which even large scale vaccination does not prevent the disease from spreading, this policy is doomed to strictly isolate them from the World forever.
If they refuse to open up to international travel, they should not expect to be allowed to do it themselves. Strict isolation also means keeping their citizens in to prevent them from bringing back the scary bug after all, unless they choose to just ignore their own constitution like some nations.
Not to mention that if they decide to implement their own border policies, they should not complain when other nations do the same. Some nations want 'zero-covid' bubbles, other nations want vaccine bubbles.

Covid sure is an interesting large scale philosophical experiment in realism vs. idealism...

What's wrong with observing quarantine rule after travelling to other countries? Just follow the quarantine protocol then you don't need to deny citizens nor foreigners from entering and you can still maintain minimal amount of corona case if you don't have them locally

And how is vaccine bubble a bubble at all when it isn't doing anything to reduce the spread of the virus?
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:10 am

c933103 wrote:
What's wrong with observing quarantine rule after travelling to other countries? Just follow the quarantine protocol then you don't need to deny citizens nor foreigners from entering and you can still maintain minimal amount of corona case if you don't have them locally

And how is vaccine bubble a bubble at all when it isn't doing anything to reduce the spread of the virus?


There's nothing 'wrong' with observing quarantine restrictions into other countries if one wants to, but you have to admit that 2 or even 3 weeks mandatory quarantines in hotels, at the cost of the traveler, and where any breach will have you treated like a criminal, does not particularly encourage travel to that country... That's about as close to closing borders as you can do without actually closing them.
Such harsh travel restrictions are making life a nightmare for many people who rely on travel for work or to keep in touch with their relatives, and these people are essentially being sacrificed.
Then there's the fact that such a binary and absolute approach to managing Covid means that any future opening is impossible and that these isolationist restrictions can only get worse.

As for the vaccine bubbles, the goal is not to prevent Covid from circulating, it is to prevent inbound travelers from ending up in local hospitals and monopolizing local healthcare resources. Particularly understandable in the US where healthcare is extremely expensive and where travelers often come without adequate medical coverage.
 
Toenga
Posts: 270
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:24 am

Francoflier wrote:

As for the vaccine bubbles, the goal is not to prevent Covid from circulating, it is to prevent inbound travelers from ending up in local hospitals and monopolizing local healthcare resources. Particularly understandable in the US where healthcare is extremely expensive and where travelers often come without adequate medical coverage.


That might be the case where you are from but I don't think you can take it as universal.

For NZ our Prime Minister gave a press conference earlier today.

From that conference

Speaking at today's briefing, after the release of new modelling which suggests lockdowns may still be needed if the country achieved an 80 percent vaccination rate, Ardern said vaccine certificates, better ventilation, some mask use, and the possibility of changing border restrictions so a full 14-day quarantine isn't required could used in the future.

But for now vaccination is the main tool.

"It all comes down to vaccination."

She said lockdowns were needed in the first phase of the pandemic because there were no vaccines and everyone had to be isolated.

"With vaccines, we can turn that model on its head," she said, so positive cases can be isolated as others have the protection of vaccines.

"Children can't be vaccinated. It will reach them. And we've seen it reach them in this outbreak," she said.

The plan was never zero cases, but "zero tolerance" for Covid, she said.

Ardern said the government's plan for the future, included aggressively isolating cases, catching cases at the border, and ensuring the health system is not overwhelmed.

"It's not the Aotearoa way to leave anyone behind," she said.

"There remains one simple message - Get vaccinated."



90% + of those 12 and over is quite achievable here by early next year, if not by Christmas.


So the 14 day universal mandatory quarantine should go. To be replaced by a gradation of less stringent measures depending the risk the traveller imposes assessed from their country of origin. These could be as light as just a vaccination certificate for travellers on direct flights from countries with no current covid cases. An extension to the Visa, ETSA customs and biosecurity arrangements already in place.

We are aware inspite of vaccinations being available for some months both the UK and the US are approaching winter with covid being a very significant cause of death and a considerable stress to their respective health systems. Not a situation we want to find ourselves in.
 
flyguy89
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Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:46 am

Toenga wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

As for the vaccine bubbles, the goal is not to prevent Covid from circulating, it is to prevent inbound travelers from ending up in local hospitals and monopolizing local healthcare resources. Particularly understandable in the US where healthcare is extremely expensive and where travelers often come without adequate medical coverage.


That might be the case where you are from but I don't think you can take it as universal.

For NZ our Prime Minister gave a press conference earlier today.

From that conference

Speaking at today's briefing, after the release of new modelling which suggests lockdowns may still be needed if the country achieved an 80 percent vaccination rate, Ardern said vaccine certificates, better ventilation, some mask use, and the possibility of changing border restrictions so a full 14-day quarantine isn't required could used in the future.

But for now vaccination is the main tool.

"It all comes down to vaccination."

She said lockdowns were needed in the first phase of the pandemic because there were no vaccines and everyone had to be isolated.

"With vaccines, we can turn that model on its head," she said, so positive cases can be isolated as others have the protection of vaccines.

"Children can't be vaccinated. It will reach them. And we've seen it reach them in this outbreak," she said.

The plan was never zero cases, but "zero tolerance" for Covid, she said.

Ardern said the government's plan for the future, included aggressively isolating cases, catching cases at the border, and ensuring the health system is not overwhelmed.

"It's not the Aotearoa way to leave anyone behind," she said.

"There remains one simple message - Get vaccinated."



90% + of those 12 and over is quite achievable here by early next year, if not by Christmas.


So the 14 day universal mandatory quarantine should go. To be replaced by a gradation of less stringent measures depending the risk the traveller imposes assessed from their country of origin. These could be as light as just a vaccination certificate for travellers on direct flights from countries with no current covid cases. An extension to the Visa, ETSA customs and biosecurity arrangements already in place.

We are aware inspite of vaccinations being available for some months both the UK and the US are approaching winter with covid being a very significant cause of death and a considerable stress to their respective health systems. Not a situation we want to find ourselves in.

Sounds dizzying to be honest. Very few if any countries will have zero Covid cases. Seems most Kiwis will not be leaving NZ for many years to come if that’s the bar they’re setting.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:17 am

Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
What's wrong with observing quarantine rule after travelling to other countries? Just follow the quarantine protocol then you don't need to deny citizens nor foreigners from entering and you can still maintain minimal amount of corona case if you don't have them locally

And how is vaccine bubble a bubble at all when it isn't doing anything to reduce the spread of the virus?


There's nothing 'wrong' with observing quarantine restrictions into other countries if one wants to, but you have to admit that 2 or even 3 weeks mandatory quarantines in hotels, at the cost of the traveler, and where any breach will have you treated like a criminal, does not particularly encourage travel to that country... That's about as close to closing borders as you can do without actually closing them.
Such harsh travel restrictions are making life a nightmare for many people who rely on travel for work or to keep in touch with their relatives, and these people are essentially being sacrificed.
Then there's the fact that such a binary and absolute approach to managing Covid means that any future opening is impossible and that these isolationist restrictions can only get worse.

As for the vaccine bubbles, the goal is not to prevent Covid from circulating, it is to prevent inbound travelers from ending up in local hospitals and monopolizing local healthcare resources. Particularly understandable in the US where healthcare is extremely expensive and where travelers often come without adequate medical coverage.

What is the point of quarantine if it is to be observed only "if one want to"? Why should local population subject to the risk of inbound travelers at their personal will?
Indeed, those whose life depends on free movement across national border have their life greatly disrupted, but that's one of the many trade offs necessary to make as the society face pandemic, as one cannot have all and lose none while facing such threat of a pandemic.
The trade off of quarantine-free open-to-all approach is increased hospitalization and death, which come as extra cost to both the society in general as well as individuals being infected.
Vaccination requirement isn't helping since it isn't anywhere close to minimizing the risk of spread, and even though the vaccines did better against hospitalization and death, at current rate it still mean uncontrolled unmitigated opening would see a shape rise in them even among vaccinated group due to increased probability of getting them.
Even if inbound travelers don't personally end up in hospitals and clotting them up, as long as they can still spread to others in the area, it will still mean they send those people into the hospital system and burdening the healthcare resource.
The US have much higher case rate than many countries around the world even after vaccinated, so entry from those foreign places shouldn't be a concern, as their chance of spreading virus into other people in the US and causing those other people ending up into hospital is much less than the risk of any other people you can see staying on American soil.
 
LOT767301ER
Posts: 150
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 2:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:30 am

melpax wrote:
Now blocking a major freeway - have never seen scenes like these before in Melbourne

https://www.facebook.com/theageAustrali ... 3896019883


I wouldnt mind pitching in a few dollars to support these protestors. Poor people have faced 18 months of flat out Australian health fascism.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2030
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:48 am

LOT767301ER wrote:
melpax wrote:
Now blocking a major freeway - have never seen scenes like these before in Melbourne

https://www.facebook.com/theageAustrali ... 3896019883


I wouldnt mind pitching in a few dollars to support these protestors. Poor people have faced 18 months of flat out Australian health fascism.


And yet in Australia they are seen as the minority of the minority. To carry on like this (including occupying the Shrine of Rememberance) when the state is very close to reaching vaccination targets which will allow a measured reopening simply piles arrogance onto ignorance. Although there is lockdown fatigue, Australians gnerally respect the measures that have kept our death rate more than 40 times lower than that of the US or Poland, for example.

Mind you, a big thanks to Poland for selling us excess Pfizer supplies after its vax program stalled around 50%. My home state now has almost 85% of its 16+ population with one shot, and almost 56% with both shots.
 
Toenga
Posts: 270
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:42 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

As for the vaccine bubbles, the goal is not to prevent Covid from circulating, it is to prevent inbound travelers from ending up in local hospitals and monopolizing local healthcare resources. Particularly understandable in the US where healthcare is extremely expensive and where travelers often come without adequate medical coverage.


That might be the case where you are from but I don't think you can take it as universal.

For NZ our Prime Minister gave a press conference earlier today.

From that conference

Speaking at today's briefing, after the release of new modelling which suggests lockdowns may still be needed if the country achieved an 80 percent vaccination rate, Ardern said vaccine certificates, better ventilation, some mask use, and the possibility of changing border restrictions so a full 14-day quarantine isn't required could used in the future.

But for now vaccination is the main tool.

"It all comes down to vaccination."

She said lockdowns were needed in the first phase of the pandemic because there were no vaccines and everyone had to be isolated.

"With vaccines, we can turn that model on its head," she said, so positive cases can be isolated as others have the protection of vaccines.

"Children can't be vaccinated. It will reach them. And we've seen it reach them in this outbreak," she said.

The plan was never zero cases, but "zero tolerance" for Covid, she said.

Ardern said the government's plan for the future, included aggressively isolating cases, catching cases at the border, and ensuring the health system is not overwhelmed.

"It's not the Aotearoa way to leave anyone behind," she said.

"There remains one simple message - Get vaccinated."



90% + of those 12 and over is quite achievable here by early next year, if not by Christmas.


So the 14 day universal mandatory quarantine should go. To be replaced by a gradation of less stringent measures depending the risk the traveller imposes assessed from their country of origin. These could be as light as just a vaccination certificate for travellers on direct flights from countries with no current covid cases. An extension to the Visa, ETSA customs and biosecurity arrangements already in place.

We are aware inspite of vaccinations being available for some months both the UK and the US are approaching winter with covid being a very significant cause of death and a considerable stress to their respective health systems. Not a situation we want to find ourselves in.

Sounds dizzying to be honest. Very few if any countries will have zero Covid cases. Seems most Kiwis will not be leaving NZ for many years to come if that’s the bar they’re setting.

New Zealanders have always been free to leave whenever they want. But return is only by the booked managed isolation system.
Since it was established after the initial rush of returnees late March 2021 nearly 174000 people, out of a population of 5.1 million have entered NZ this way, quite a few more then once. One a personal acquaintance of mine three times on private trips so no favouritism in obtaining bookings.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:13 am

Toenga wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Toenga wrote:

That might be the case where you are from but I don't think you can take it as universal.

For NZ our Prime Minister gave a press conference earlier today.

From that conference

Speaking at today's briefing, after the release of new modelling which suggests lockdowns may still be needed if the country achieved an 80 percent vaccination rate, Ardern said vaccine certificates, better ventilation, some mask use, and the possibility of changing border restrictions so a full 14-day quarantine isn't required could used in the future.

But for now vaccination is the main tool.

"It all comes down to vaccination."

She said lockdowns were needed in the first phase of the pandemic because there were no vaccines and everyone had to be isolated.

"With vaccines, we can turn that model on its head," she said, so positive cases can be isolated as others have the protection of vaccines.

"Children can't be vaccinated. It will reach them. And we've seen it reach them in this outbreak," she said.

The plan was never zero cases, but "zero tolerance" for Covid, she said.

Ardern said the government's plan for the future, included aggressively isolating cases, catching cases at the border, and ensuring the health system is not overwhelmed.

"It's not the Aotearoa way to leave anyone behind," she said.

"There remains one simple message - Get vaccinated."



90% + of those 12 and over is quite achievable here by early next year, if not by Christmas.


So the 14 day universal mandatory quarantine should go. To be replaced by a gradation of less stringent measures depending the risk the traveller imposes assessed from their country of origin. These could be as light as just a vaccination certificate for travellers on direct flights from countries with no current covid cases. An extension to the Visa, ETSA customs and biosecurity arrangements already in place.

We are aware inspite of vaccinations being available for some months both the UK and the US are approaching winter with covid being a very significant cause of death and a considerable stress to their respective health systems. Not a situation we want to find ourselves in.

Sounds dizzying to be honest. Very few if any countries will have zero Covid cases. Seems most Kiwis will not be leaving NZ for many years to come if that’s the bar they’re setting.

New Zealanders have always been free to leave whenever they want. But return is only by the booked managed isolation system.
Since it was established after the initial rush of returnees late March 2021 nearly 174000 people, out of a population of 5.1 million have entered NZ this way, quite a few more then once. One a personal acquaintance of mine three times on private trips so no favouritism in obtaining bookings.

Right, so effectively almost no one. Sure you’re "free" to leave whenever you want, provided of course you have the means to foot the time and money for the managed isolation. It’s an effective ban for nearly all. And I can’t see that as changing for quite a long long while if zero tolerance for Covid is the standard.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:24 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Sounds dizzying to be honest. Very few if any countries will have zero Covid cases. Seems most Kiwis will not be leaving NZ for many years to come if that’s the bar they’re setting.

No, where we want to come back from, and where others want to come from, will determine the hoops that have to be gone through to be able to walk free upon our streets, for the risk of importing covid, just like the risk of importing terrorism.
Remember covid has killed many many times more people then terrorism in your country, and yet you take massive precautions and incur massive costs and constraints to personal liberty to minimise further terrorism deaths. Here the Christchurch massacre killed nearly twice as many people as we have lost to covid. 51 against 27.
 
melpax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:14 pm

Kent350787 wrote:

And yet in Australia they are seen as the minority of the minority. To carry on like this (including occupying the Shrine of Rememberance) when the state is very close to reaching vaccination targets which will allow a measured reopening simply piles arrogance onto ignorance. Although there is lockdown fatigue, Australians gnerally respect the measures that have kept our death rate more than 40 times lower than that of the US or Poland, for example.


The scenes at The Shrine were disgraceful, with the protestors climbing all over it, and some urinating on the walls. the Shrine of Rememberance is regarded as a very sacred site in Melbourne. The protests morphed from construction workers protesting about the closure of their lunch rooms on Friday, protesting against their union leadership on Monday, to being overtaken by the anti-vaxxer & right-wing crowd on Tuesday & Wednesday. Very little sympathy for them here in Melbourne. Protests seem to have fizzled out today, but tomorrow is a public holiday here....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynM3VmP_cGY

Some hospitals have now told their staff not to wear scrubs when travelling to & from work as some medical personnel have been abused when in public.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/vict ... 58u2p.html
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:56 pm

melpax wrote:
Protests happening again in Melbourne today, they moved from the CBD to the Shrine of Rememberance, where police have moved them on using gas, pepper spray & rubber bullets. They're now apparently blocking one of the Citylink road tunnels.

As I posted in the Aus aviation thread, the TV choppers have been effectively grounded as CASA has imposed a no-fly zone over central Melbourne until Sunday, this was done at the request of police. The TV networks aren't happy as expected, and are looking at legal options to have this overturned.

TV reporters have been harassed on air again today, and the networks are now starting to use live blogger vision in their coverage, given that the bloggers are in the main protest group.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 58tou.html


This is suspect that this was granted in favour of the police.

If there is excessive police force then not having it on camera is beneficial to keeping the lockdowns in place and I personally think Australia has gone too far with their restrictions. For the case loads you have down there you could have enacted capacity limits, masking and distancing to keep the areas locked down open. If I had a drone and lived in Carlton, Richmond, the Dockland etc I would try flying one over which I think some news networks might try.

It seemed it was lockdown to 0, full capacity, lockdown, full capacity in Victoria NSW. Now that covid zero has been abandoned in Australia (at least from the feds) come up with sustainable restrictions.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:59 pm

Toenga wrote:
That might be the case where you are from but I don't think you can take it as universal.

For NZ our Prime Minister gave a press conference earlier today.

From that conference...


To me, that sounds more like she's trying to find a way to backpedal on the zero-covid policy than announcing a change. Especially with that little gem:
The plan was never zero cases, but "zero tolerance" for Covid, she said.

Is she really going to pretend like there was ever a difference between the two?

It's fantastic that NZ is able to wait for everyone to get vaccinated before opening up. This will definitely save a lot of lives. But there is still a blatant dichotomy between wanting to open up and wanting to be aggressive against Covid. There are soft measures that can be taken such as mask mandates, continued widespread testing, increased indoor ventilation etc., but given that nothing but strict isolation and harsh domestic measures like lockdowns and forced patient and contacts confinement is enough to prevent a growing spread (and even that is now debatable), I fail to see how the authorities will manage to balance these two mutually-exclusive goals.
In the light of that, and without some degree of acceptance and resignation that Covid is going to happen no matter what, I can't see any appetite for real opening.

c933103 wrote:
What is the point of quarantine if it is to be observed only "if one want to"? Why should local population subject to the risk of inbound travelers at their personal will?


Not what I meant. People only want to quarantine if they want to travel... and judging by the completely deserted international airports I've seen around Asia, that will just isn't there. In effect, all these nations are deterring people from flying in as much as possible. Especially when we go into the realm of 3 weeks quarantines which have no scientific validity and which are often undertaken in hotels which are not setup to prevent cross-contamination between inmates guests.

Indeed, those whose life depends on free movement across national border have their life greatly disrupted, but that's one of the many trade offs necessary to make as the society face pandemic, as one cannot have all and lose none while facing such threat of a pandemic.


Funny how I only keep hearing that argument from people who have nothing to lose from these restrictions...
I've seen parents not being able to attend the burial of their child because they were not allowed to travel to the country their child happened to be stuck in when he became sick (not Covid).
"Some of you will suffer, but it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make" :scratchchin:

The trade off of quarantine-free open-to-all approach is increased hospitalization and death, which come as extra cost to both the society in general as well as individuals being infected.
Vaccination requirement isn't helping since it isn't anywhere close to minimizing the risk of spread, and even though the vaccines did better against hospitalization and death, at current rate it still mean uncontrolled unmitigated opening would see a shape rise in them even among vaccinated group due to increased probability of getting them.


If vaccines are not enough to eliminate or attenuate Covid enough, then there is no other solution that eternal isolation. 'Gradual' openings will not work in the sense that the virus starts spreading exponentially once it reaches a certain critical mass. If the underlying mentality and risk tolerance does not change, then the endless cycles of lockdowns and isolation will continue.
Again, if a nation decides to enforce these harsh measures on their population (and assuming said population tolerates them) until full vaccine coverage is achieved, then it's great. The problem I see is that the fear of Covid is now so acute in these places that even full vaccination will not be enough to appease the authorities and lead them to impose an eternal cycle of restrictions.

Even if inbound travelers don't personally end up in hospitals and clotting them up, as long as they can still spread to others in the area, it will still mean they send those people into the hospital system and burdening the healthcare resource.
The US have much higher case rate than many countries around the world even after vaccinated, so entry from those foreign places shouldn't be a concern, as their chance of spreading virus into other people in the US and causing those other people ending up into hospital is much less than the risk of any other people you can see staying on American soil.


Not how it works. Inbound travelers would not have any effect in increasing the overall caseload in a country as large as the US, in which Covid is already widespread, unless their number tangibly increased the overall population, which would never be the case.
Those travelers however, especially if they are unvaccinated, and if they come from a country with little to no Covid exposure and therefore lack any sort of immunity, would be very likely to catch it there and end up in the hospital.
The US, because of its successive widespread Covid waves and relatively high vaccination rate, has now built up a fair bit of immunity. It's not unreasonable to expect inbound travelers to come with some as well, given the virus prevalence, lest they end up needing the local healthcare system.
The US has decided to live with it. It's their prerogative to request those to come in that they be ready to do the same, just as it is the prerogative of these 'Zero-Covid' places to impose prohibitive and borderline inhumane quarantine requirements.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:12 pm

Toenga wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Sounds dizzying to be honest. Very few if any countries will have zero Covid cases. Seems most Kiwis will not be leaving NZ for many years to come if that’s the bar they’re setting.

No, where we want to come back from, and where others want to come from, will determine the hoops that have to be gone through to be able to walk free upon our streets, for the risk of importing covid, just like the risk of importing terrorism.

That’s fine, it’s of course a nation’s prerogative to proceed as it sees fit in this regard, but I tell you, as admirable as I think NZ’s response to Covid has been initially in giving them time to vaccinate and avoid many deaths…I’m very glad now to not be living in NZ and be in their position. Have my first international trip to Europe planned in a few weeks, happy to abide by reasonable testing and vaccination requirements to appropriately mitigate some of the risk but even happier to be getting back out into the world.

Toenga wrote:
Remember covid has killed many many times more people then terrorism in your country, and yet you take massive precautions and incur massive costs and constraints to personal liberty to minimise further terrorism deaths.

The precautions and constraints on liberties taken to protect from terrorism pale in comparison to the draconian measures implemented for Covid…and most reasonable people disagree even on those infringements as being worth it.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:04 pm

I agree that the shuffle in the meaning of elimination is a bit of a bodge, but to be fair it was announced well over a year ago, when it was apparent that total isolation from the rest of the world was impossible so covid incursions into the community would be inevitable.
The "elimination", as no tolerance of community spread of covid, places covid internally under the same notifiable health regimes as measles, polio, and TB, with a requirements on notification and isolation of infected persons to suppress local outbreaks as they occur.
So expect countries to be classified as low, medium, high, and perhaps very high risk, each attracting differing entry requirements.
For medium risk countries, that I imagine most of the world to fall into, requirements may well be in the order of:
Approved evidence of full vaccination status.
Perhaps, and hopefully probably, evidence of covid cover on travel insurance.
Pre departure test, test on arrival and isolation until test result, less then 24hrs, and with expected approval of rapid antigen testing, probably before you even lead the airport.
Travel from risk countries may require isolation until the results of a day 5? test are required. I don't know.
Travel from very high risk countries may even be suspended for a time, except for NZ passport holders, and a longer period of isolation and more tests.
So just as terrorism complicated travel, expect the same for covid type diseases.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:36 pm

Toenga wrote:
I agree that the shuffle in the meaning of elimination is a bit of a bodge, but to be fair it was announced well over a year ago, when it was apparent that total isolation from the rest of the world was impossible so covid incursions into the community would be inevitable.
The "elimination", as no tolerance of community spread of covid, places covid internally under the same notifiable health regimes as measles, polio, and TB, with a requirements on notification and isolation of infected persons to suppress local outbreaks as they occur.
So expect countries to be classified as low, medium, high, and perhaps very high risk, each attracting differing entry requirements.
For medium risk countries, that I imagine most of the world to fall into, requirements may well be in the order of:
Approved evidence of full vaccination status.
Perhaps, and hopefully probably, evidence of covid cover on travel insurance.
Pre departure test, test on arrival and isolation until test result, less then 24hrs, and with expected approval of rapid antigen testing, probably before you even lead the airport.
Travel from risk countries may require isolation until the results of a day 5? test are required. I don't know.
Travel from very high risk countries may even be suspended for a time, except for NZ passport holders, and a longer period of isolation and more tests.
So just as terrorism complicated travel, expect the same for covid type diseases.

Here’s the other consideration: eventually many of the countries who move on from Covid will stop widespread testing. Look at Germany for example where the focus will shift to when/where hospitalizations become the principal indicator of risk. In a year or so you’re not going to know true case numbers and risks to properly differentiate countries.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:29 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Here’s the other consideration: eventually many of the countries who move on from Covid will stop widespread testing. Look at Germany for example where the focus will shift to when/where hospitalizations become the principal indicator of risk. In a year or so you’re not going to know true case numbers and risks to properly differentiate countries.


A major problem we have by taking a unique path, is a lack of real world examples to follow. Our results are unique too.
We have carved our own path, that has inflicted extraordinarily little damage to our society.
We are not unique in imposing covid border entry restrictions, the US and Britain still have border restrictions from some deemed high risk countries I believe.
But we are very nearly unique in living almost totally free of both covid deaths and covid controls for the vast majority of the time since the outbreak began. For most of the time masks on public transport being about the limit on restrictions.
Deaths of just 5.2 per million of population. Only 2 covid deaths this year, one of which contacted the disease before arrival.
Not the 2000 deaths per million and ongoing, that we are horrified to see being as just acceptable normal elsewhere now in the world.
We have proved the vast majority of these deaths were preventable.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:49 pm

Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
What is the point of quarantine if it is to be observed only "if one want to"? Why should local population subject to the risk of inbound travelers at their personal will?


Not what I meant. People only want to quarantine if they want to travel... and judging by the completely deserted international airports I've seen around Asia, that will just isn't there. In effect, all these nations are deterring people from flying in as much as possible. Especially when we go into the realm of 3 weeks quarantines which have no scientific validity and which are often undertaken in hotels which are not setup to prevent cross-contamination between inmates guests.

Many countries in East Asia have also banned visitors from entering and only allow their nationals, or people with long term work or study visa in some cases. Hence people who desire to travel and willing to observe the quarantine could still be barred from doing so. I don't think this policy is necessary, but it helps when quarantine facility capacity is limited.
As for the length of quarantine, 2-weeks is the incubation period for up to 95% or 99% cases (figure vary between source and strain). There are nations who deem the risk of that remaining 1% or 5% leaking into community being too much, and thus extended the requirement.
Hotel is more easy to implement centralized disease prevention protocol, and improve and fix loophole allowing transmission within hotel, if the government responsible actually care and track and find out transmission path involved in cases potentially transmitted within hotels.

Francoflier wrote:
Indeed, those whose life depends on free movement across national border have their life greatly disrupted, but that's one of the many trade offs necessary to make as the society face pandemic, as one cannot have all and lose none while facing such threat of a pandemic.


Funny how I only keep hearing that argument from people who have nothing to lose from these restrictions...
I've seen parents not being able to attend the burial of their child because they were not allowed to travel to the country their child happened to be stuck in when he became sick (not Covid).
"Some of you will suffer, but it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make" :scratchchin:

If other paths are being opted then it could be other people who suffer, in different ways.
There are no choice where everyone can be saved, not with our current medical technology.
It is like trying to win a war without any soldiers dying.
Francoflier wrote:
The trade off of quarantine-free open-to-all approach is increased hospitalization and death, which come as extra cost to both the society in general as well as individuals being infected.
Vaccination requirement isn't helping since it isn't anywhere close to minimizing the risk of spread, and even though the vaccines did better against hospitalization and death, at current rate it still mean uncontrolled unmitigated opening would see a shape rise in them even among vaccinated group due to increased probability of getting them.


If vaccines are not enough to eliminate or attenuate Covid enough, then there is no other solution that eternal isolation. 'Gradual' openings will not work in the sense that the virus starts spreading exponentially once it reaches a certain critical mass. If the underlying mentality and risk tolerance does not change, then the endless cycles of lockdowns and isolation will continue.
Again, if a nation decides to enforce these harsh measures on their population (and assuming said population tolerates them) until full vaccine coverage is achieved, then it's great. The problem I see is that the fear of Covid is now so acute in these places that even full vaccination will not be enough to appease the authorities and lead them to impose an eternal cycle of restrictions.

"If vaccines are not enough to eliminate or attenuate Covid enough," is something determined by the characteristic of the virus as well as vaccine efficiency, not something that can be modified based on the will of decision makers. You can change the definition of what is called "enough", but even if we assume the vaccine can cut as much as 3/4 symptomatic infection, the Delta's higher infectivity rate at R0=6~9 still mean the virus would spread as fast among precaution-free-vaccinated-group as the original strain in the general population, which had a R0 of around 3.

Lockdown despite vaccination progress have happened.

Indeed, vaccination are better at reducing the risk of hospitalization and death, and massively help with the problem of medical system overload. But not eliminating them, especially when you try to let everyone just live a normal life without any precautions. As the virus can still spread exponentially among vaccinated groups, due to the vaccine's efficiency against hospitalization and death are despite great yet still far less than 100.0000%, if you are determined to not enforce any control measure and just let the vaccine effect take place, the slower exponential grow will still get everyone infected even if everyone are vaccinated, and it's still likely to cause medical system overload and sizable number of death due to the sheer number of case despite reduced likelihood for each case to become severe/death.

Francoflier wrote:
Even if inbound travelers don't personally end up in hospitals and clotting them up, as long as they can still spread to others in the area, it will still mean they send those people into the hospital system and burdening the healthcare resource.
The US have much higher case rate than many countries around the world even after vaccinated, so entry from those foreign places shouldn't be a concern, as their chance of spreading virus into other people in the US and causing those other people ending up into hospital is much less than the risk of any other people you can see staying on American soil.


Not how it works. Inbound travelers would not have any effect in increasing the overall caseload in a country as large as the US, in which Covid is already widespread, unless their number tangibly increased the overall population, which would never be the case.
Those travelers however, especially if they are unvaccinated, and if they come from a country with little to no Covid exposure and therefore lack any sort of immunity, would be very likely to catch it there and end up in the hospital.
The US, because of its successive widespread Covid waves and relatively high vaccination rate, has now built up a fair bit of immunity. It's not unreasonable to expect inbound travelers to come with some as well, given the virus prevalence, lest they end up needing the local healthcare system.
The US has decided to live with it. It's their prerogative to request those to come in that they be ready to do the same, just as it is the prerogative of these 'Zero-Covid' places to impose prohibitive and borderline inhumane quarantine requirements.

Is there any news of vaccinated travellers from low risk countries entering the US now burdening the US healthcare system?
And I am pretty sure, despite widespread infection in many places, it probably affected less than 10% of the overall national population of the US so far, and even adding that onto vaccination rate, I don't think the US is anywhere near the herd immunity level yet, which would be somewhere close to 90% with Delta
Last edited by c933103 on Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:03 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:53 pm

US deaths have now (almost) matched the 1918-1920 flu pandemic:
https://www.foxla.com/news/poll-half-of ... family.amp

By almost, 674,000 US deaths to Covid19 vs. flu deaths of 675,000.

Many preventable, but isolating an island is different than any large democratic nation.

The disease will likely be endemic. Partially as vaccines are not good enough at preventing spread, partially due to people refusing vaccines. We will see the full picture within six months when there should no longer be a vaccine shortage, but instead a demand shortage. Note by six months I mean end March 2022.



I happen to agree testing will scale back, dramatically within a year. It will be a challenge to determine risk other than hospitalizations by start of next summer, in my opinion.

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:11 pm

lightsaber wrote:
US deaths have now (almost) matched the 1918-1920 flu pandemic:
https://www.foxla.com/news/poll-half-of ... family.amp

By almost, 674,000 US deaths to Covid19 vs. flu deaths of 675,000.

Many preventable, but isolating an island is different than any large democratic nation.

The disease will likely be endemic. Partially as vaccines are not good enough at preventing spread, partially due to people refusing vaccines. We will see the full picture within six months when there should no longer be a vaccine shortage, but instead a demand shortage. Note by six months I mean end March 2022.



I happen to agree testing will scale back, dramatically within a year. It will be a challenge to determine risk other than hospitalizations by start of next summer, in my opinion.

Lightsaber

North America is essentially an island from rest of the world.
Aren't vaccination rate in a number of Western countries already slowed down due to most people who want to take it have already taken it, and hence resulted in increased export to other countries around the world.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:18 pm

Toenga wrote:
We have carved our own path, that has inflicted extraordinarily little damage to our society.

Indeed you have. It’s just unfortunate that path will mean perpetual physical isolation from the rest of the world for many many years to come. The way I see it is you’re either maintaining very strict border controls, or you’re living with the sustained heavy restrictions necessary to stamp out the infections that will inevitably arise from increased travel. The nature of Covid being what it is and “zero tolerance” for Covid being the bar, there really is no third way.

lightsaber wrote:
US deaths have now (almost) matched the 1918-1920 flu pandemic:
https://www.foxla.com/news/poll-half-of ... family.amp

By almost, 674,000 US deaths to Covid19 vs. flu deaths of 675,000.

…when the population of the US was fewer than a third of what it is today. Just sayin. Let’s not make a terrible situation out to be worse than it actually is.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:33 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
We have carved our own path, that has inflicted extraordinarily little damage to our society.

Indeed you have. It’s just unfortunate that path will mean perpetual physical isolation from the rest of the world for many many years to come. The way I see it is you’re either maintaining very strict border controls, or you’re living with the sustained heavy restrictions necessary to stamp out the infections that will inevitably arise from increased travel. The nature of Covid being what it is and “zero tolerance” for Covid being the bar, there really is no third way.

lightsaber wrote:
US deaths have now (almost) matched the 1918-1920 flu pandemic:
https://www.foxla.com/news/poll-half-of ... family.amp

By almost, 674,000 US deaths to Covid19 vs. flu deaths of 675,000.

…when the population of the US was fewer than a third of what it is today. Just sayin. Let’s not make a terrible situation out to be worse than it actually is.


Will isolation in the Asia Pacific continue - unlikely, althugh some countries may take bigger steps than others. Even Australia, which is talking about reoping borders once we have 80% 16+ vaccination is likely to have inbound testing and some form of quarantine for some months. We know that we are part of a global community, but governments will be overthrown if the death rate becaomes unpalatable.

At least on this forum, there seems to be a deep gap in understanding between those from countries which were able to control outbreaks and those who haven't been. Reasonably protecting the local population has bene the mantra in the Asia Pacific, and that is not something you open up from without controls that avoid the death rates of the northern hemishpere and developing world.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:37 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
We have carved our own path, that has inflicted extraordinarily little damage to our society.

Indeed you have. It’s just unfortunate that path will mean perpetual physical isolation from the rest of the world for many many years to come. The way I see it is you’re either maintaining very strict border controls, or you’re living with the sustained heavy restrictions necessary to stamp out the infections that will inevitably arise from increased travel. The nature of Covid being what it is and “zero tolerance” for Covid being the bar, there really is


I think you are overlooking that exiting this path is available at any time if a better option becomes apparent, but it is very much a one way street as we are very well aware of as we battle to extinguish our latest breakdown hovering between 10 and 20+ cases a day, and we are easing controls making extinguishing this outbreak far from a certainty. Also as we are observing the situation in NSW and Victoria who have had to accept that extinguishing their current outbreak is probably no longer achievable, so are enduring an equivalent lockdown to our own but rising death daily death numbers and hospitilisation.
So it really is a matter of attempting to keep this option open, an option that very few have, until something demonstrably better comes along. That something better may be in Denmark, at the moment, but certainly not evident in the US and the UK right now.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:50 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Will isolation in the Asia Pacific continue - unlikely, althugh some countries may take bigger steps than others. Even Australia, which is talking about reoping borders once we have 80% 16+ vaccination is likely to have inbound testing and some form of quarantine for some months. We know that we are part of a global community, but governments will be overthrown if the death rate becaomes unpalatable.

I’m not talking about waiving reasonable restrictions like testing and vaccine requirements, but fact is virus spread and deaths will increase from where they are now in countries like Australia and New Zealand if travel restrictions are loosened from the status quo. What you seem to be alluding to is some degree of shift in the level of tolerance of Covid risk. That however is decidedly not zero Covid tolerance.

Toenga wrote:
So it really is a matter of attempting to keep this option open, an option that very few have, until something demonstrably better comes along. That something better may be in Denmark, at the moment, but certainly not evident in the US and the UK right now.

Sure, but again that’s not zero Covid tolerance. Roughly 20 people are dying of Covid each week in Denmark currently. Question is, is New Zealand willing to tolerate that?
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:27 am

flyguy89 wrote:

Toenga wrote:
So it really is a matter of attempting to keep this option open, an option that very few have, until something demonstrably better comes along. That something better may be in Denmark, at the moment, but certainly not evident in the US and the UK right now.

Sure, but again that’s not zero Covid tolerance. Roughly 20 people are dying of Covid each week in Denmark currently. Question is, is New Zealand willing to tolerate that?


The stated objective is to reduce covid to threat comparitive with influenza. Pre covid flu was responsible for about 1500 deaths per year in NZ, but the covid controls also near effectively eliminated flu also, so life expectancy here, bizarrely was actually raised. Excess deaths was actually near 2000 less deaths then would have been expected in a normal year.

So to answer your question.
I think 1000 covid deaths a year would be seen just as undesirable as 1000 influenza deaths a year.
Near zero covid deaths was more a by-product of eliminating covid, to eliminate the need for restrictions, bar at the border, until the vaccination program was substantially completed.
The initial options were only:
1/ eliminate if you could by a brief period of stringent control, control the border and basically remove internal controls, and then enjoy things, and next to nobody died. Repeat every time you got a border incursion.
2/ Impose quite severe controls and adjust when necessary to attempt to keep the health system functional, but endure lengthy periods of disruption and quite high casualties.
3/ Just let it rip. No one actualy went down this path, but those that got closest suffered horrendous casualties.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:43 am

Toenga wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:

Toenga wrote:
So it really is a matter of attempting to keep this option open, an option that very few have, until something demonstrably better comes along. That something better may be in Denmark, at the moment, but certainly not evident in the US and the UK right now.

Sure, but again that’s not zero Covid tolerance. Roughly 20 people are dying of Covid each week in Denmark currently. Question is, is New Zealand willing to tolerate that?


The stated objective is to reduce covid to threat comparitive with influenza. Pre covid flu was responsible for about 1500 deaths per year in NZ, but the covid controls also near effectively eliminated flu also, so life expectancy here, bizarrely was actually raised. Excess deaths was actually near 2000 less deaths then would have been expected in a normal year.

So to answer your question.
I think 1000 covid deaths a year would be seen just as undesirable as 1000 influenza deaths a year.
Near zero covid deaths was more a by-product of eliminating covid, to eliminate the need for restrictions, bar at the border, until the vaccination program was substantially completed.
The initial options were only:
1/ eliminate if you could by a brief period of stringent control, control the border and basically remove internal controls, and then enjoy things, and next to nobody died. Repeat every time you got a border incursion.
2/ Impose quite severe controls and adjust when necessary to attempt to keep the health system functional, but endure lengthy periods of disruption and quite high casualties.
3/ Just let it rip. No one actualy went down this path, but those that got closest suffered horrendous casualties.


Thanks for your clarification. Although not explicitly stated, a similar risk profile seems to be implied for Australia.

What I am surprised at is the influenza death figure in NZ. 2017 was a very very bad year in Australia with around 1,200 deaths nationally. A major comms program was implemented and vaccination highly recommended. Annual deaths averages nearer 500.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:51 am

Toenga wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:

Toenga wrote:
So it really is a matter of attempting to keep this option open, an option that very few have, until something demonstrably better comes along. That something better may be in Denmark, at the moment, but certainly not evident in the US and the UK right now.

Sure, but again that’s not zero Covid tolerance. Roughly 20 people are dying of Covid each week in Denmark currently. Question is, is New Zealand willing to tolerate that?


The stated objective is to reduce covid to threat comparitive with influenza. Pre covid flu was responsible for about 1500 deaths per year in NZ, but the covid controls also near effectively eliminated flu also, so life expectancy here, bizarrely was actually raised. Excess deaths was actually near 2000 less deaths then would have been expected in a normal year.

So to answer your question.
I think 1000 covid deaths a year would be seen just as undesirable as 1000 influenza deaths a year.
Near zero covid deaths was more a by-product of eliminating covid, to eliminate the need for restrictions, bar at the border, until the vaccination program was substantially completed.
The initial options were only:
1/ eliminate if you could by a brief period of stringent control, control the border and basically remove internal controls, and then enjoy things, and next to nobody died. Repeat every time you got a border incursion.
2/ Impose quite severe controls and adjust when necessary to attempt to keep the health system functional, but endure lengthy periods of disruption and quite high casualties.
3/ Just let it rip. No one actualy went down this path, but those that got closest suffered horrendous casualties.

I appreciate your thoughts but that doesn’t really answer the question which is…is there any degree of increase in deaths you’re willing to absorb to allow people to live their lives normally? Where’s the limiting principle? Because the country you reference as a model had as many Covid deaths in a week as New Zealand has had in 1.5 years.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:51 am

c933103 wrote:
Many countries in East Asia have also banned visitors from entering and only allow their nationals, or people with long term work or study visa in some cases. Hence people who desire to travel and willing to observe the quarantine could still be barred from doing so. I don't think this policy is necessary, but it helps when quarantine facility capacity is limited.
As for the length of quarantine, 2-weeks is the incubation period for up to 95% or 99% cases (figure vary between source and strain). There are nations who deem the risk of that remaining 1% or 5% leaking into community being too much, and thus extended the requirement.
Hotel is more easy to implement centralized disease prevention protocol, and improve and fix loophole allowing transmission within hotel, if the government responsible actually care and track and find out transmission path involved in cases potentially transmitted within hotels.


Therein lies the problem with seeking the elusive 0% risk... it doesn't exist. That's how you end up with nonsensical rules such as 3 weeks quarantine in facilities which aren't designed to be effective quarantine housing and therefore increase the risk of infected inbound travelers infecting other guests or staff, as has happened in Hong Kong recently. What did they do to combat this breach? Increase hotel quarantine...

It's always the same problem with sticking to Zero-Covid. As the virus gets more prevalent and contagious, it becomes a downwards spiral towards more restrictions and isolation from which there is no way back.

If other paths are being opted then it could be other people who suffer, in different ways.
There are no choice where everyone can be saved, not with our current medical technology.
It is like trying to win a war without any soldiers dying.


The problem is that this is still touted as a 'war'. It isn't one. We have no way of 'fighting' this virus other than on an immunological level. There is no way to 'defeat' it as it is much too prevalent and infectious to ever achieve elimination. Therefore all we can achieve is to boost immunity and attenuate it and its effects. I wish the war analogy was dropped as it completely misleads the population into thinking that this is something that can potentially be won. It can't. Those who go Zero-Covid are holding a siege, not a war, and I wish they told their constituents this, as from what I can tell, many in these artificially shielded places still operate under the belief that this will be over someday...

The trade off of quarantine-free open-to-all approach is increased hospitalization and death, which come as extra cost to both the society in general as well as individuals being infected.
Vaccination requirement isn't helping since it isn't anywhere close to minimizing the risk of spread, and even though the vaccines did better against hospitalization and death, at current rate it still mean uncontrolled unmitigated opening would see a shape rise in them even among vaccinated group due to increased probability of getting them.


The vaccines are the only way we can manage this viral threat. I can't understand why the goal would be to prevent people from getting sick altogether if this has never been the goal with any of the other viral diseases so long as their effect of the community's health are mild, such as with the influenza virus.
This is what the vaccine will help us achieve. They will gradually build immunity (along with natural exposure) and slowly decrease the statistical severity of the virus. Since it appears the virus will be around for a long time to come, if not forever, then Zero-Covid means strict isolation from the rest of the World forever. Assuming that even the most stubborn nations will realize this and open up eventually, then it means everyone will get Covid one day. The increased hospitalizations and deaths are going to happen no matter what. Hopefully at a much lower pace when as many people as possible have been vaccinated, but still. To expect any other outcome at this stage is at best lack of understanding, at worst denial and delusion.
Don't get me wrong, I'll say again that it's admirable that some places have managed to keep the infection levels so low for so long, though through great sacrifices, but it is dangerous to now believe that this can be a sustainable solution.

I'll add that the longer some nations isolate, the more their overall immunity to other widely circulating pathogens degrades, which I believe may create some additional and unforeseen issues when reopening.

"If vaccines are not enough to eliminate or attenuate Covid enough," is something determined by the characteristic of the virus as well as vaccine efficiency, not something that can be modified based on the will of decision makers. You can change the definition of what is called "enough", but even if we assume the vaccine can cut as much as 3/4 symptomatic infection, the Delta's higher infectivity rate at R0=6~9 still mean the virus would spread as fast among precaution-free-vaccinated-group as the original strain in the general population, which had a R0 of around 3.

Lockdown despite vaccination progress have happened.

Indeed, vaccination are better at reducing the risk of hospitalization and death, and massively help with the problem of medical system overload. But not eliminating them, especially when you try to let everyone just live a normal life without any precautions. As the virus can still spread exponentially among vaccinated groups, due to the vaccine's efficiency against hospitalization and death are despite great yet still far less than 100.0000%, if you are determined to not enforce any control measure and just let the vaccine effect take place, the slower exponential grow will still get everyone infected even if everyone are vaccinated, and it's still likely to cause medical system overload and sizable number of death due to the sheer number of case despite reduced likelihood for each case to become severe/death.


I am not in favor of no restrictions whatsoever. But the problem as I said is that everyone WILL get infected one day. One way or another, all those nations which have avoided the worst so far will have to manage outbreaks. They should fare much better in doing so since they will (hopefully) mostly be vaccinated and can still implement attenuating measures. But it will happen.
The worst that any government can do IMO is to treat their population like helpless and naive children and make them believe that they will keep them safe forever when this isn't true. Not only does it not prepare them to deal with the virus as they will have to one day, but also reduces the overall motivation to get vaccinated.

Is there any news of vaccinated travellers from low risk countries entering the US now burdening the US healthcare system?
And I am pretty sure, despite widespread infection in many places, it probably affected less than 10% of the overall national population of the US so far, and even adding that onto vaccination rate, I don't think the US is anywhere near the herd immunity level yet, which would be somewhere close to 90% with Delta


I am certain that the virus has infected a lot more than 10% of the population in the US. Mostly because the official case number amounts to 13% of the population already, but also because the official tally is likely to trail the actual figure by a vast margin due to the prevalence of asymptomatic cases and the amount of people who just rode it out without testing. I personally wouldn't be surprised if at least 50% of the population there has been exposed to the virus already in some form or other, if not more.
As for travelers burdening the local healthcare system, it is hard to judge, but since inbound international travel has been very limited and since vaccine mandates for those foreigners allowed inbound has been in place for a little while now, it likely never has been an issue...
Note that what I meant by 'burdened' was that they would risk leaving behind a bunch of unpaid bills, not necessarily take up valuable beds.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:57 am

Kent350787 wrote:

Thanks for your clarification. Although not explicitly stated, a similar risk profile seems to be implied for Australia.

What I am surprised at is the influenza death figure in NZ. 2017 was a very very bad year in Australia with around 1,200 deaths nationally. A major comms program was implemented and vaccination highly recommended. Annual deaths averages nearer 500.


The 1500 deaths is probably a bad year, as flu vaccination rates are quite high.
Cooler, damper climate, and poor housing coupled with high energy costs, and dietary deficiencies for the socially deprived anyway, who already disproportionately suffer from co morbidities. Covid too has disproportionately affected the same demographics for much the same reasons.
The lower life expectancies in these groups is a national disgrace that needs even more attention.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:29 am

flyguy89 wrote:
I appreciate your thoughts but that doesn’t really answer the question which is…is there any degree of increase in deaths you’re willing to absorb to allow people to live their lives normally? Where’s the limiting principle? Because the country you reference as a model had as many Covid deaths in a week as New Zealand has had in 1.5 years.


Living lives normally? Apart from border restrictions that in reality affected just a tiny minority of people in a substantial way and still a significant minority in a just minor way. The vast majority of NZers have apart from 9 weeks of lockdown lived life entirely normally. Packed stadiums, bars and night clubs, free to travel anywhere within our borders. And even, for an all too brief period free to travel without restrictions or testing requirements to Australia and the Cook Islands. Here in Auckland though we have had to endure an additional 5 weeks of lockdown.
That is a lot more normal then just about anywhere else in the world. What percentage of Americans would have normally travelled internationally in the last 21 months? And having to substitute domestic holidays for international holidays, how much real deprivation did it cause compared to the disruptions to your healthcare provisions. Or worrying about ill family members and friends, or worse having to grieve for them.
Is it acceptably normal that across your entire population life expectancy has dropped back to levels last experienced a decade or so ago?
There is actually another consideration that NZ takes very seriously. We are the gateway to a number of small Pacific Island countries that have very limited health resources. Covid would devastate them. So keeping us safe from covid very largely keeps them safe.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:46 am

Toenga wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
I appreciate your thoughts but that doesn’t really answer the question which is…is there any degree of increase in deaths you’re willing to absorb to allow people to live their lives normally? Where’s the limiting principle? Because the country you reference as a model had as many Covid deaths in a week as New Zealand has had in 1.5 years.


Living lives normally? Apart from border restrictions that in reality affected just a tiny minority of people in a substantial way and still a significant minority in a just minor way. The vast majority of NZers have apart from 9 weeks of lockdown lived life entirely normally. Packed stadiums, bars and night clubs, free to travel anywhere within our borders. And even, for an all too brief period free to travel without restrictions or testing requirements to Australia and the Cook Islands. Here in Auckland though we have had to endure an additional 5 weeks of lockdown.
That is a lot more normal then just about anywhere else in the world. What percentage of Americans would have normally travelled internationally in the last 21 months? And having to substitute domestic holidays for international holidays, how much real deprivation did it cause compared to the disruptions to your healthcare provisions. Or worrying about ill family members and friends, or worse having to grieve for them.
Is it acceptably normal that across your entire population life expectancy has dropped back to levels last experienced a decade or so ago?
There is actually another consideration that NZ takes very seriously. We are the gateway to a number of small Pacific Island countries that have very limited health resources. Covid would devastate them. So keeping us safe from covid very largely keeps them safe.

Most people would say physically isolating your country from the rest of the world in perpetuity is not normal. Especially as the rest of the developed world moves on. And you still haven’t answered the question.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:20 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Most people would say physically isolating your country from the rest of the world in perpetuity is not normal. Especially as the rest of the developed world moves on. And you still haven’t answered the question.


The only person talking about perpetuaty is you. The US currently has covid entry restrictions from a large part of the world. The difference is our restrictions just cover more of the world.
Since the managed isolation system was set up nearly 175000 people equivalent to nearly 3.5% of our population have come into NZ, so probably not a vastly different ratio to entrants into the US.
I have a UK born and resident niece arriving here in less then a month.
What we can expect is a risk based structured relaxation of border restrictions once we are very largely vaccinated, to reduce the risk of covid to that of comparitive serious diseases that we also manage.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:40 am

Toenga wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Most people would say physically isolating your country from the rest of the world in perpetuity is not normal. Especially as the rest of the developed world moves on. And you still haven’t answered the question.


The only person talking about perpetuaty is you.

Because you haven't articulated any realistic path where New Zealand opens back up to the world. I'm not being facetioius here, I'm trying to understand what, if any, risk tolerance there is to virus spread since any loosening of travel restrictions will inevitably beget more spread. What is the long-term goal? To maintain almost no community transmission? To keep case levels and hospitalizations to Denmark-like levels? To simply ensure hospitals don't come under undue stress?

Toenga wrote:
The US currently has covid entry restrictions from a large part of the world.

I've already stated that I'm not advocating for absolutely no restrictions. I think vaccine and or testing requirements are pretty reasonable.

Toenga wrote:
The difference is our restrictions just cover more of the world.

The difference is you have a de facto ban on all international travel and border crossings.

Toenga wrote:
Since the managed isolation system was set up nearly 175000 people equivalent to nearly 3.5% of our population have come into NZ, so probably not a vastly different ratio to entrants into the US.

Again a de fact ban, reserved only for the few who can afford both the time and money for the quarantine. 175K is roughly 9% of 2019 numbers, and no doubt a good portion of that 175K were just Kiwis repatriating. Not that it's contest, but in 2020 the US by comparison had roughly 25% of the international visitation it had in 2019. Lots of restrictions on paper, but no practical enforcement of quarantine.

Toenga wrote:
What we can expect is a risk based structured relaxation of border restrictions once we are very largely vaccinated, to reduce the risk of covid to that of comparitive serious diseases that we also manage.

And THAT is what I was looking for. That makes sense.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I happen to agree testing will scale back, dramatically within a year. It will be a challenge to determine risk other than hospitalizations by start of next summer, in my opinion.

Lightsaber

Also another thing I forgot to comment on, that is even if the focus is hospitalization death, the number of case confirmed through testing are still important indicator of them. Yes people are getting vaccinated and thus not as many vaccinated become hospitalized/death, but you can still use the case number multiple by a small number of percent to foretell the trend in hospitalization and death. Scaling test would delay government actions to only after hospitals are getting packed, which would be too late due to the lead time from a person is infected to a person need to end up in hospital.

Francoflier wrote:
Therein lies the problem with seeking the elusive 0% risk... it doesn't exist. That's how you end up with nonsensical rules such as 3 weeks quarantine in facilities which aren't designed to be effective quarantine housing and therefore increase the risk of infected inbound travelers infecting other guests or staff, as has happened in Hong Kong recently. What did they do to combat this breach? Increase hotel quarantine...

It's always the same problem with sticking to Zero-Covid. As the virus gets more prevalent and contagious, it becomes a downwards spiral towards more restrictions and isolation from which there is no way back.

Indeed, 0% risk doesn't exists. Unless you be North Korea and shoot anyone trying to cross the border and even cutting any international logistic into and out of the country.
But like 1% or 5% risk is still far higher than 0%, and there are a lot of ranges in between
Especially when it is 1% of, let say 700 cases per million population, compares to 0.x per million.

Francoflier wrote:
The problem is that this is still touted as a 'war'. It isn't one. We have no way of 'fighting' this virus other than on an immunological level. There is no way to 'defeat' it as it is much too prevalent and infectious to ever achieve elimination. Therefore all we can achieve is to boost immunity and attenuate it and its effects. I wish the war analogy was dropped as it completely misleads the population into thinking that this is something that can potentially be won. It can't. Those who go Zero-Covid are holding a siege, not a war, and I wish they told their constituents this, as from what I can tell, many in these artificially shielded places still operate under the belief that this will be over someday...

The vaccines are the only way we can manage this viral threat. I can't understand why the goal would be to prevent people from getting sick altogether if this has never been the goal with any of the other viral diseases so long as their effect of the community's health are mild, such as with the influenza virus.
This is what the vaccine will help us achieve. They will gradually build immunity (along with natural exposure) and slowly decrease the statistical severity of the virus. Since it appears the virus will be around for a long time to come, if not forever, then Zero-Covid means strict isolation from the rest of the World forever. Assuming that even the most stubborn nations will realize this and open up eventually, then it means everyone will get Covid one day. The increased hospitalizations and deaths are going to happen no matter what. Hopefully at a much lower pace when as many people as possible have been vaccinated, but still. To expect any other outcome at this stage is at best lack of understanding, at worst denial and delusion.
Don't get me wrong, I'll say again that it's admirable that some places have managed to keep the infection levels so low for so long, though through great sacrifices, but it is dangerous to now believe that this can be a sustainable solution.

I'll add that the longer some nations isolate, the more their overall immunity to other widely circulating pathogens degrades, which I believe may create some additional and unforeseen issues when reopening.

I agree it isn't a good idea to compare battling the pandemic with war in most cases, but obviously there are more ways for human to reduce negative impact caused by the pandemic on themselves at immunological level, and that would includes social measure, hygiene, ventilation, and so on. No single measure available alone can help human containing the virus. Vaccine have very limited side effect and great efficiency and thus is a very helpful tool to help humans in the pandemic, but that along isn't sufficient and all the other measures come with each of their own sets of drawbacks.
As for "no way to defeat it", it depends on whether you can get the infectivity down to less than 1. If you can sustain it at less than 1 then ultimately the virus will gone. It can be achieved even in Western countries. But often those pandemic control measures as when as people's willingness to compile with restrictions comes and goes, and thus the infectivity rate end up rebouncing and creating bigger and bigger waves one after another.
Without making other sacrifice the situation of still bigger and bigger waves will still continues.
As for "why the goal would be to prevent people from getting sick", I would say it is because of the negative impact the virus can inflict on infected human, as well as the impact on society when too many members became infected at the same time. Even with the vaccine cutting hospitalization by 90%, with how prevalent the virus is, and the easiness of one ending up with severe symptoms requiring hospitalization or getting undesirable effects after being infected, 10% the original risk is still a high risk, even when you compare that with like seasonal flu, especially to those who could have live without such risk.

Francoflier wrote:
I am not in favor of no restrictions whatsoever. But the problem as I said is that everyone WILL get infected one day. One way or another, all those nations which have avoided the worst so far will have to manage outbreaks. They should fare much better in doing so since they will (hopefully) mostly be vaccinated and can still implement attenuating measures. But it will happen.
The worst that any government can do IMO is to treat their population like helpless and naive children and make them believe that they will keep them safe forever when this isn't true. Not only does it not prepare them to deal with the virus as they will have to one day, but also reduces the overall motivation to get vaccinated.

I am certain that the virus has infected a lot more than 10% of the population in the US. Mostly because the official case number amounts to 13% of the population already, but also because the official tally is likely to trail the actual figure by a vast margin due to the prevalence of asymptomatic cases and the amount of people who just rode it out without testing. I personally wouldn't be surprised if at least 50% of the population there has been exposed to the virus already in some form or other, if not more.

Getting infected isn't an one-and-done deal either. Immunity from infection like immunity from vaccine, isn't perfect and decrease in efficiency as times goes on and as newer strains emerge.
As for travelers burdening the local healthcare system, it is hard to judge, but since inbound international travel has been very limited and since vaccine mandates for those foreigners allowed inbound has been in place for a little while now, it likely never has been an issue...
Note that what I meant by 'burdened' was that they would risk leaving behind a bunch of unpaid bills, not necessarily take up valuable beds.

Mandate travel insurance with coronavirus coverage could be a step with less impact.
And by the way, a number of travellers to the US nowadays are actually so called "vaccine travellers", who fly to the US for the specific purpose of paying for and taking the vaccine. If only vaccinated people can fly to the US then those people will not be able to have such path to access vaccine at the US and have to wait for their country provide sufficient supply to them
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:26 pm

Reading the responses from our friends in NZ and Australia.

The question is, when would the NZ and Australian authorities blink and come to the realization that COVID will be out there for ever. And when they managed to get 100% of their population, if they do, vaccinated, by the time they do, another variant of COVID will be out, making that vacinne basically useless. So they will again lock down for COVID zero for this new variant, and back again to the never ending cycle.

While the clock ticks, and we as humans have a certain amount of time on this earth, many of those who won't have a normal life till zero covid, are losing and wasting time of their lives that won't ever go back and get, because there isn't a COVID time machine once they get fully vaccinated. At the end of the day losing 2-5 years of your life stuck inside your house or city or country, no goverment can't ever give back to you.

This is what I said back then when COVID started. There is a risk for everything we do, there is more risk driving a car than dying from COVID, and we still do it, but we haven't decided to stay home for ever because driving is dangerous. Its a basic premise. All of this COVID lockdown nonsense is big government telling you they can prevent you from dying, when clearly they can't. Just makes a few insecure people feel secure, without any possible real security, that no one can ever guarantee.

Continue to enjoy waiting for zero covid.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:49 pm

c933103 wrote:
As for "no way to defeat it", it depends on whether you can get the infectivity down to less than 1. If you can sustain it at less than 1 then ultimately the virus will gone. It can be achieved even in Western countries. But often those pandemic control measures as when as people's willingness to compile with restrictions comes and goes, and thus the infectivity rate end up rebouncing and creating bigger and bigger waves one after another.
Without making other sacrifice the situation of still bigger and bigger waves will still continues.
As for "why the goal would be to prevent people from getting sick", I would say it is because of the negative impact the virus can inflict on infected human, as well as the impact on society when too many members became infected at the same time. Even with the vaccine cutting hospitalization by 90%, with how prevalent the virus is, and the easiness of one ending up with severe symptoms requiring hospitalization or getting undesirable effects after being infected, 10% the original risk is still a high risk, even when you compare that with like seasonal flu, especially to those who could have live without such risk.


I think that's where our opinions differ.

I do not believe that it is possible to sustain an R0 <1 for long enough to ensure elimination save for limited cases such as well isolated groups.
In fact, I don't even believe that the successive sub-1 R0 periods we've seen were due to human intervention in most countries, but rather due to the natural tendency of a contagious virus to spread in successive waves. The rebounds are IMO not due to any change in compliance with restrictions, but rather the natural resurgence of the virus, thanks to mutations or other natural factors. The point being that there is only so much we can do to control it in a large enough nation and past a certain degree of infection.
Sure, the effects and overall numbers could be lower with different population behavior, but each population values their freedom to live their lives as they please differently.
I disagree that waves would get 'bigger and bigger'. That has not been demonstrated in nations with large previous exposure in which the latest wave(s) seemed to not only not be larger, but also to engender a lower number of severe cases and deaths. Immunity from vaccination or exposure does wane over time (in terms of antibodies at least) but it does not disappear altogether. Gradually, global immunity builds up.

I am of the firm belief that elimination is not possible. There is absolutely no way you'd get 8 billion people to follow the absurdly strict restrictive measures that would be required to achieve this, starting with the fact that a few billion of these rely on a daily wage for their very survival... Lockdowns are a rich nation's privilege.

There is also the fact that attenuating measures such as social distancing, masks etc. would naturally tend to force the virus to evolve towards a more contagious genotype by virtue of natural selection.

Either way, Covid will be around, and the dilemma stands for those nations still seeking to shield themselves from it altogether: What to do after the vaccination campaign?
Some seem to have understood that facing the threat is an inevitability and are seeking ways of softening the blow somehow, others seem to be doubling down on strict isolation from the rest of the World and having their citizens living under the permanent threats of lockdowns or being summarily thrown into to quarantine camps along with their families. I don't believe the latter is a sustainable approach.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4158
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:49 pm

Getting infected isn't an one-and-done deal either. Immunity from infection like immunity from vaccine, isn't perfect and decrease in efficiency as times goes on and as newer strains emerge.


We have 4 endemic coronaviruses that infect us all regularly causing the common cold. There is growing evidence that at least one of them emerged in a very similar pandemic to what we are in now.

They cause the common cold not because these viruses don't mutate but because we have a degree of immunity to the infection and a mutation can't change the whole virus at once, it can change parts and the immunity from natural exposure is likely stronger because your body remembers the whole virus and with the vaccine is only recognizes the spike protein. Enough mutation poses more risk in theory to those who just received the vaccines (and no exposure) and perhaps this makes a case for boosters if they are variant targeted but not the same ones.

Furthermore regarding immunity, you lose antibodies over time but retain memory cells to recognize a pathogen which is why subsequent infections are likely not dangerous to those immune. Antibody production and action by T and B cells get revved up much faster than when you encounter a novel pathogen so you don't get very sick.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Reading the responses from our friends in NZ and Australia.

The question is, when would the NZ and Australian authorities blink and come to the realization that COVID will be out there for ever. And when they managed to get 100% of their population, if they do, vaccinated, by the time they do, another variant of COVID will be out, making that vacinne basically useless. So they will again lock down for COVID zero for this new variant, and back again to the never ending cycle.

While the clock ticks, and we as humans have a certain amount of time on this earth, many of those who won't have a normal life till zero covid, are losing and wasting time of their lives that won't ever go back and get, because there isn't a COVID time machine once they get fully vaccinated. At the end of the day losing 2-5 years of your life stuck inside your house or city or country, no goverment can't ever give back to you.

This is what I said back then when COVID started. There is a risk for everything we do, there is more risk driving a car than dying from COVID, and we still do it, but we haven't decided to stay home for ever because driving is dangerous. Its a basic premise. All of this COVID lockdown nonsense is big government telling you they can prevent you from dying, when clearly they can't. Just makes a few insecure people feel secure, without any possible real security, that no one can ever guarantee.

Continue to enjoy waiting for zero covid.


I think Australia has largely abandoned covid zero and now have lockdowns in place until they reach a certain vaccination threshold. Things are getting testy there and in any democracy that is still using lockdowns now is going to face a very large backlash perhaps violent from their citizens.

Us polite Canadians have accepted a vaccine passport in essentially every province (not nationally put in place, but Trudeau probably pulled strings behind the scenes). If we have to lock down again to the extent we have already 3 times since March 2020, we will lose our collective s*it.

Also to make your point around risk. I bet if you put a doctor in charge of the government with unilateral control they would outlaw booze, all drugs, no cycling or skateboarding without being basically padded in foam, Cars can't drive past 30 km/h an hour etc. This is an exaggeration but medicine is a profession where saving a life in number one. The quality of that person's life especially in-between their ears is a different matter and part of a healthy lifestyle and a society is to manage that risk to an acceptable level.

It makes me wonder when I see Facebook comments that one life lost to covid is too many. We accept death all of the time and while it sucks for the family and friends of the deceased its life. That same person probably has absolutely no compassion for someone who dedicated their life to a business that closed through no fault of their own and turned to drugs and happen to OD in despair.

I make this case to my very risk averse parents all of the time. You risk death when you get in the car and why is the person who lost their life to Covid a more impactful death than the 25 year old who was in the wrong place at the wrong time on a highway and got hit by a drunk driver.

In fact their risk of being in a car accident is higher because under Covid they might not drive enough and to keep a skill like driving up in your later years you need to work extra hard to keep your reflexes up.
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