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Aaron747
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Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:52 am

So the most significant data is out from the 2020 Census and some of the takeaways confirm a lot of things people and marketers around the country have observed, including:

- Large counties in major cities are growing fast, while small counties with less than 50,000 people continue to bleed away population
- Suburban growth continues to outpace urban or rural population growth
- The number of majority minority states is growing. The list now includes: CA, TX, HI, NM, NV, and MD. Prior to 1990 it was only HI and NM.
- The white population is now under 60% for the first time.
- Multiracial is the fastest growing population category.
- Population growth is slowing dramatically nationally as couples delay childbirth and have fewer children (probably the impact of COL)
- Population growth amongst Asian and Hispanic Americans is driven primarily by births over deaths, not immigration

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... sus-report

I think the biggest challenge going forward will be not falling into a Japan syndrome. The number of retired persons is exploding at the same time automation and other efficiencies are eliminating the need for certain categories of workers. We are going to need to figure out what that means for the economy and social safety nets.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:08 am

No need to worry. The Population Pyramid of the USA looks pretty healthy: no major bumps or a large retiring cohort.

Image

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... amid_(2020).jpg

In contrast, the German Pyramid looks way worse:

Image

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... -12-31.png

I do wonder what effect COVID-19 will have on the population pyramid of 2021 and 2022. The elderly (65+) are obviously especially impacted, but I do not know how many elderly as a percentage of their cohort have died because of it.
 
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c933103
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:53 am

Is the US entering the Latin America cultural sphere, according to this data?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:57 am

c933103 wrote:
Is the US entering the Latin America cultural sphere, according to this data?


That seems unlikely. The culture is still very different in the US from Latin America, especially the way of doing business.
 
Ken777
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:17 am

This could well be the last Census where "whites" are in the majority. The GOP has already learned that they need to take drastic action in order to win elections in the future. With 400+ new laws put forth by Republicans to keep minorities from voting it's pretty clear that panic has already set in and a lot of strong restrictions will be in place for the 2022 Elections. People of color need to get well organized and have multiple photo ID'S.
 
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:32 am

To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:36 am

Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.


I hear ya but it seems like we're only going the opposite direction from that. Also salaries and wages need to keep pace with increases in housing/healthcare cost, but they don't come close.
 
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c933103
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:50 am

Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.

Doesn't really seems to work in other countries with declining birth rate.
And I am pretty certain US's birth rate is still on the relatively high side among developed countries although still below replacement level
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:01 am

c933103 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.

Doesn't really seems to work in other countries with declining birth rate.
And I am pretty certain US's birth rate is still on the relatively high side among developed countries although still below replacement level


Then one needs to ask if we want more people on earth, or are we ok with a 'controlled' decline? Most western nations and nations like Japan and China are well below the replacement level of 2,1 children per woman. It will mean something on a systemic level for countries, but not something we cannot handle.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:02 am

Dieuwer wrote:
No need to worry. The Population Pyramid of the USA looks pretty healthy: no major bumps or a large retiring cohort.


What is healthy? What are your criteria for that?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:07 am

Dutchy wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.

Doesn't really seems to work in other countries with declining birth rate.
And I am pretty certain US's birth rate is still on the relatively high side among developed countries although still below replacement level


Then one needs to ask if we want more people on earth, or are we ok with a 'controlled' decline? Most western nations and nations like Japan and China are well below the replacement level of 2,1 children per woman. It will mean something on a systemic level for countries, but not something we cannot handle.


Agreed, provided we change to a hybrid economy. Most economists agree the current macroeconomic paradigm is not sustainable without continued population growth.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:06 am

c933103 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.

Doesn't really seems to work in other countries with declining birth rate.
And I am pretty certain US's birth rate is still on the relatively high side among developed countries although still below replacement level

:checkmark:

While I’m sure factors such as cost of living and socials spending impact birth rates at the margin, by and large it seems just an immutable trend across all developed countries that as they prosper and become better educated…people just prefer to have fewer or no children. No amount of extravagant social benefits really seems to move the needle there. High birth rates are broadly a feature of impoverished societies with little access to/education on family planning.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:13 am

Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.


Some of these things are in the 3,5T$ budget the House passed, we'll see if it goes somewhere.

Also I think people need a good outlook on the future and that where the US has an advantage, people are optimistic for some reason.

Being French with birth rates not enough but not crazy low, with family in Italy where basically only immigrants have children, I think one big issue in Italy is the high unemployment among the young, year after year. The other factors (family leave etc.) also played a role and for a long time, already in the same family, with everyone having grown up in France as immigrants, my mother and her siblings who stayed in France all have 2-3-4-5 children, the ones who went back to Italy have 1 child, or none. Out of the 3 Italian cousins, all in their mid 30s (including two women), no child so far. In France I have dozens of cousins and I can't count the number of children they have.

In Japan the crazy "work ethic" has to be a factor.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:17 am

Aesma wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.


Some of these things are in the 3,5T$ budget the House passed, we'll see if it goes somewhere.

Also I think people need a good outlook on the future and that where the US has an advantage, people are optimistic for some reason.

Being French with birth rates not enough but not crazy low, with family in Italy where basically only immigrants have children, I think one big issue in Italy is the high unemployment among the young, year after year. The other factors (family leave etc.) also played a role and for a long time, already in the same family, with everyone having grown up in France as immigrants, my mother and her siblings who stayed in France all have 2-3-4-5 children, the ones who went back to Italy have 1 child, or none. Out of the 3 Italian cousins, all in their mid 30s (including two women), no child so far. In France I have dozens of cousins and I can't count the number of children they have.

In Japan the crazy "work ethic" has to be a factor.


In Japan the primary factor is salaries are too low, especially compared to other developed countries. Men will be the sole breadwinner for whatever period women stay home to raise children and for some families, especially in Tokyo or Osaka, that is untenable. Women in that situation need to get back to work within a year of having a child and the government has done a terrible job of ensuring there is enough childcare. 18-24 month waitlists for daycare are not uncommon in Tokyo. A lot of people don't want to sacrifice savings for raising children and would rather travel and pursue hobbies.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:57 am

flyguy89 wrote:
While I’m sure factors such as cost of living and socials spending impact birth rates at the margin, by and large it seems just an immutable trend across all developed countries that as they prosper and become better educated…people just prefer to have fewer or no children. No amount of extravagant social benefits really seems to move the needle there. High birth rates are broadly a feature of impoverished societies with little access to/education on family planning.

The funny thing is hearing "pro-family" advocates yelling that the sky is falling because the birth rate has declined, yet rather than address the causes so that birth rates stabilize, they much rather blame the new generations for misguided priorities.

My mom in particular keeps asking me when I'll have children. Never mind that I'm gay and that the hurdle to have a child the old fashioned way is pretty much insurmountable (there's surrogacy but who's got the money?), I keep telling her that the 90s are gone. The days where you could drop off a kid with someone and pay them $20 for the day no longer exist. Being unmarried means I barely have resources to stay afloat; I can't in good conscience bring another life to my house if I can't keep up.

But alas, Millennials have killed all industries and they'll also be the first generation to skip on having children.

That being said, here's where I disagree with you. If I had resources to be able to take care of a kid while not having to sacrifice wages or my professional life, the option to have children would still be on the table. If my employer provided me generous paternal leave (6 months at least) and the opportunity to work remotely until the kid is ready for daycare, if the state provided the means for discounted child care (including daycare and health insurance), if wages kept up with rising costs...then yes, I would still keep the option of having children on the table and so would many others in my situation (whether married or single, straight or gay). Because these things are not universally available, my generation (and no doubt GenZ and GenAlpha when they come of age) will likely prefer to delay their own families until politicians address these issues.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:26 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
No need to worry. The Population Pyramid of the USA looks pretty healthy: no major bumps or a large retiring cohort.


What is healthy? What are your criteria for that?

A population pyramid is considered "healthy" if there are no major bumps followed by decreases, or if there's not a steadily declining slope as you go down.

Compare these three pyramids:

Here's Italy
Image

Italy is an example of an aging country. More people are in their 40s-50s than there are younger kids. When these folks retire, if there's a social net, it'll be strained because the new generation isn't large enough to support a big retirement boom. Japan and South Korea have similar issues.

Here's the US
Image

The US is an example of a steady, healthy population. After the Baby Boom of the 50s and 60s, each generation has kept relatively the same birth rates with no dramatic changes. Canada and Australia are similar.

Here's Egypt
Image

Egypt is an example of a young population. Notice how each younger rank has more and more individuals. That could mark unstable growth if resources are not managed correctly. Nigeria and Vietnam are similar examples.

And you may also have a population pyramid that is still showing signs of struggle from a previous event that resulted in massive loss of life or economic strain. Take Russia's pyramid.
Image

Notice how the old generation (70+) has significantly less men than women...these would be many of the children of WWII men had the Soviets not lost up to 17% of its population (as an average; individual republics could have higher tolls). A statistic places a 20% chance of a Soviet boy born in 1923 able to live up to his 23rd birthday, meaning that, if true, about 80% of boys born in 1923 were lost in WWII (they were of fighting age). That in turn leads to a roller coaster of population booms. The population seems to recover after the war...but then the children who would have been born from that lost generation would have had kids of their own...but as there was a significant drop in that cohort, that is reflected (the 50-60 group). The population booms again as the previous generation's children come of age and has kids of their own...and it drops again (this time compounded by two things: the non-existent grandchildren of the lost WWII generation, and the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent struggles). That is not healthy as there is no stability.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:35 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
No need to worry. The Population Pyramid of the USA looks pretty healthy: no major bumps or a large retiring cohort.


What is healthy? What are your criteria for that?

A population pyramid is considered "healthy" if there are no major bumps followed by decreases, or if there's not a steadily declining slope as you go down.


Yeah, I understand all of that. But I was kind of challenging the idea that stability is healthy. :D

We could see a future where automatization will make more and more jobs disappear. We have seen that automatization eats jobs like crazy, but at the same time, new jobs were created. Now you see more and more jobs being automated all over the place, so some predict that we could see actually a rapid decline of the number of actual jobs to keep the level or even increase the wealth. Given this, perhaps we could redefine 'healthy' as a decreasing population, instead of stable. ;)
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:46 pm

Dutchy wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

What is healthy? What are your criteria for that?

A population pyramid is considered "healthy" if there are no major bumps followed by decreases, or if there's not a steadily declining slope as you go down.


Yeah, I understand all of that. But I was kind of challenging the idea that stability is healthy. :D

We could see a future where automatization will make more and more jobs disappear. We have seen that automatization eats jobs like crazy, but at the same time, new jobs were created. Now you see more and more jobs being automated all over the place, so some predict that we could see actually a rapid decline of the number of actual jobs to keep the level or even increase the wealth. Given this, perhaps we could redefine 'healthy' as a decreasing population, instead of stable. ;)


I don't think automation automatically means less jobs. I think it means different jobs, but not necessarily "less". Besides, what is so bad about a stable global population? Do we really want perpetually more and more people on the planet?
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:23 pm

c933103 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.

Doesn't really seems to work in other countries with declining birth rate.
And I am pretty certain US's birth rate is still on the relatively high side among developed countries although still below replacement level


I've done my bit, my wife and I are both replaced and we have a spare as well. Half the families we know have 3 children.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:28 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
A population pyramid is considered "healthy" if there are no major bumps followed by decreases, or if there's not a steadily declining slope as you go down.


Yeah, I understand all of that. But I was kind of challenging the idea that stability is healthy. :D

We could see a future where automatization will make more and more jobs disappear. We have seen that automatization eats jobs like crazy, but at the same time, new jobs were created. Now you see more and more jobs being automated all over the place, so some predict that we could see actually a rapid decline of the number of actual jobs to keep the level or even increase the wealth. Given this, perhaps we could redefine 'healthy' as a decreasing population, instead of stable. ;)


I don't think automation automatically means less jobs. I think it means different jobs, but not necessarily "less". Besides, what is so bad about a stable global population? Do we really want perpetually more and more people on the planet?


In the company I worked for automation meant less jobs In the main plant in Norway production staff dropped by 30% over 12 years whilst output and automation rose, at a company they bought in Poland a few years back staff dropped from 900 staff to 500 after the factory was automated to the same level as the Norwegian and German factories in the group.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:43 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
A population pyramid is considered "healthy" if there are no major bumps followed by decreases, or if there's not a steadily declining slope as you go down.


Yeah, I understand all of that. But I was kind of challenging the idea that stability is healthy. :D

We could see a future where automatization will make more and more jobs disappear. We have seen that automatization eats jobs like crazy, but at the same time, new jobs were created. Now you see more and more jobs being automated all over the place, so some predict that we could see actually a rapid decline of the number of actual jobs to keep the level or even increase the wealth. Given this, perhaps we could redefine 'healthy' as a decreasing population, instead of stable. ;)


I don't think automation automatically means less jobs. I think it means different jobs, but not necessarily "less". Besides, what is so bad about a stable global population? Do we really want perpetually more and more people on the planet?


Oh it definitely means less jobs over time. Introducing automation has knock-on effects that are undeniable. There are commentators out there claiming it will create a lot of jobs, but that's misleading. It is temporarily creating more jobs in ML, DL, and AI, but that's about it.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:53 pm

People have made a lot of unsubstantiated claims about "it definitely means less jobs over time" in this thread, but failed to provide proof or at least a link to a report (violation of TOS!). However, these alarmist statements appear not to be based in fact.

Over the past 150 years, we’ve gone from a nation of farmers to a nation of factory workers to a nation of white collar and service employees, with much of that momentous change driven by automation. But while regional economies have been disrupted and recessions have created periodic unemployment crises, there has never been a chronic, structural shortage of jobs nationwide. New inventions create new markets and jobs to go with them.


https://slate.com/technology/2021/03/jo ... tions.html
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:30 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.


I hear ya but it seems like we're only going the opposite direction from that. Also salaries and wages need to keep pace with increases in housing/healthcare cost, but they don't come close.

It will never happen. Europe's birth rate is underwater and has been for decades with a lot of those supports.

Aaron747 wrote:
- Large counties in major cities are growing fast, while small counties with less than 50,000 people continue to bleed away population

For all the gnashing about coastal elites and California and urban hell holes, it's hard to overstate what decades of conservatism has done for the "real 'murrica"/small town/heartland--it has simply replaced jobs and opportunity with despair and opioids, where the only option is to leave in order to live.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:45 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
People have made a lot of unsubstantiated claims about "it definitely means less jobs over time" in this thread, but failed to provide proof or at least a link to a report (violation of TOS!). However, these alarmist statements appear not to be based in fact.

Over the past 150 years, we’ve gone from a nation of farmers to a nation of factory workers to a nation of white collar and service employees, with much of that momentous change driven by automation. But while regional economies have been disrupted and recessions have created periodic unemployment crises, there has never been a chronic, structural shortage of jobs nationwide. New inventions create new markets and jobs to go with them.


https://slate.com/technology/2021/03/jo ... tions.html


The thing is, there might not be much more new inventions. I'm not saying technology will halt, it won't, medicine won't either. But all our basic needs are covered many times over, entertainment is a gigantic industry (several in fact), and building and buying always more stuff is not environmentally sustainable. Many jobs in the West are "bullshit jobs". At some point if most work is done by robots while we enjoy ourselves all day everyday, would it be that bad ? As long as there is some kind of universal income of course, or just "communism", resources allocated according to needs.

An alternative future is to leave the planet and go conquer others, I guess. Even then robots will be key : https://sservi.nasa.gov/articles/robots ... struction/
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:04 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
People have made a lot of unsubstantiated claims about "it definitely means less jobs over time" in this thread, but failed to provide proof or at least a link to a report (violation of TOS!). However, these alarmist statements appear not to be based in fact.

Over the past 150 years, we’ve gone from a nation of farmers to a nation of factory workers to a nation of white collar and service employees, with much of that momentous change driven by automation. But while regional economies have been disrupted and recessions have created periodic unemployment crises, there has never been a chronic, structural shortage of jobs nationwide. New inventions create new markets and jobs to go with them.


https://slate.com/technology/2021/03/jo ... tions.html


There is no data on the future, so there are no reports to cite. There are a lot of educated guesses and reasoned opinions, however.

https://futurism.com/new-study-predicts ... -automated
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:54 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
While I’m sure factors such as cost of living and socials spending impact birth rates at the margin, by and large it seems just an immutable trend across all developed countries that as they prosper and become better educated…people just prefer to have fewer or no children. No amount of extravagant social benefits really seems to move the needle there. High birth rates are broadly a feature of impoverished societies with little access to/education on family planning.

The funny thing is hearing "pro-family" advocates yelling that the sky is falling because the birth rate has declined, yet rather than address the causes so that birth rates stabilize, they much rather blame the new generations for misguided priorities.

My mom in particular keeps asking me when I'll have children. Never mind that I'm gay and that the hurdle to have a child the old fashioned way is pretty much insurmountable (there's surrogacy but who's got the money?), I keep telling her that the 90s are gone. The days where you could drop off a kid with someone and pay them $20 for the day no longer exist. Being unmarried means I barely have resources to stay afloat; I can't in good conscience bring another life to my house if I can't keep up.

But alas, Millennials have killed all industries and they'll also be the first generation to skip on having children.

That being said, here's where I disagree with you. If I had resources to be able to take care of a kid while not having to sacrifice wages or my professional life, the option to have children would still be on the table. If my employer provided me generous paternal leave (6 months at least) and the opportunity to work remotely until the kid is ready for daycare, if the state provided the means for discounted child care (including daycare and health insurance), if wages kept up with rising costs...then yes, I would still keep the option of having children on the table and so would many others in my situation (whether married or single, straight or gay). Because these things are not universally available, my generation (and no doubt GenZ and GenAlpha when they come of age) will likely prefer to delay their own families until politicians address these issues.


This seems to be a fair statement of the situation. Wife and I went ahead and had 3 children. We were very short of cash until retirement. We were happy with our situation but ......
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:57 pm

The anti-immigration zealots seem to be tone deaf that the healthy US population graph is the result of a fairly open immigration policy. That healthy population is also essential if we are to continue to be able to compete with China and the rest of the world.
 
SL1200MK2
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:11 pm

I’m 43 and have chosen to not have children. Partly because of simple circumstances but as I’ve gotten older, lots of my friends with children simply don’t seem happy. This isn’t to say they don’t love their children and aren’t fulfilled. However, they certainly seem constantly stressed, exhausted and envious of those with a lifestyle sans kids.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:07 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The anti-immigration zealots seem to be tone deaf that the healthy US population graph is the result of a fairly open immigration policy. That healthy population is also essential if we are to continue to be able to compete with China and the rest of the world.


These "zealots" you speak of are not against immigration. They are against illegal immigration. If my father can come here, declare himself, go through the process and become a citizen then everyone else can to.

The rest of your statement is correct.
 
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ER757
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:15 pm

SL1200MK2 wrote:
I’m 43 and have chosen to not have children. Partly because of simple circumstances but as I’ve gotten older, lots of my friends with children simply don’t seem happy. This isn’t to say they don’t love their children and aren’t fulfilled. However, they certainly seem constantly stressed, exhausted and envious of those with a lifestyle sans kids.

I never had kids because I don't think I'd be a good parent, just being honest with myself. I like children, but in limited doses. I used to enjoy when my girlfriend's grandchildren came over because I knew I could have fun with them for a while but they'd be leaving by the end of the day :smile:
 
flyguy89
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:27 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
they much rather blame the new generations for misguided priorities.

I never said they were good/bad/misguided or otherwise. Just different priorities that politicians never seem prepared to acknowledge or accept. And it's not just the "Pro-family" crowd who lose their mind about birth rates either...that seems to be a bipartisan exercise.

einsteinboricua wrote:
That being said, here's where I disagree with you. If I had resources to be able to take care of a kid while not having to sacrifice wages or my professional life, the option to have children would still be on the table.

That just proves the point though honestly. Do you think other generations didn't have to sacrifice material wealth or careers (read women foregoing careers entirely to stay home) when they had large families? Households of the 50s/60s/70s were all quantifiably much less well off than households today. Paid leave, child care subsidies...none of that existed for older generations either. Additionally, if you felt children were an option for you...how many would you have? More than 2 needed to pump up the birth rate? I'm guessing not, and that's perfectly OK. And while one could make the argument that costs for certain things were less "back in the day," they also largely didn't have access to many of the social programs in place today (SCHIP, Medicaid, food stamps, education assistance, etc.). All this is to say that shifts in norms/values and individual choice play a much bigger role in whether or how many children people have than anything else...and again, nothing wrong with that.

einsteinboricua wrote:
If my employer provided me generous paternal leave (6 months at least) and the opportunity to work remotely until the kid is ready for daycare, if the state provided the means for discounted child care (including daycare and health insurance), if wages kept up with rising costs...then yes, I would still keep the option of having children on the table and so would many others in my situation (whether married or single, straight or gay). Because these things are not universally available, my generation (and no doubt GenZ and GenAlpha when they come of age) will likely prefer to delay their own families until politicians address these issues.

Anecdotally that may be true, but it obviously isn't the case on a macro level. Many wealthy nations lavish families with all manor of benefits/subsidies/privileges to no effect on bringing their birth rates to even replacement level. Again, the trend that's being repeated the world over just seems to be that as countries industrialize, prosper, and become more educated, they choose to have less children.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:55 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
And it's not just the "Pro-family" crowd who lose their mind about birth rates either...that seems to be a bipartisan exercise.

I didn't say that it's only one party. I said "pro-family crowd", a term to describe people who value households with parents and children and is not restricted to a side of the political spectrum (though one side yells louder than the other).

flyguy89 wrote:
Do you think other generations didn't have to sacrifice material wealth or careers (read women foregoing careers entirely to stay home) when they had large families?

I never said they didn't, but in those instances, one salary for the house was enough to take care for all. People talk about how "back in the day"...well, back in the day a dollar went much further. Back in the day, minimum wage could cover tuition for college. One modest salary could afford a car, a nice house, and a nice vacation every year. Because the role of women was valued as homemakers and mothers it was almost expected to have no women in the workforce, so they could stay home and take care of kids up until they were of school age (no need to pay for child care). That's not the case today where even two salaries may not be enough for a decent place, let alone a car and children.

flyguy89 wrote:
Again, the trend that's being repeated the world over just seems to be that as countries industrialize, prosper, and become more educated, they choose to have less children.

Yes, they choose to have less children. But they don't fully close the door on having children at all. In poor countries, having a high infant mortality rate means needing to have several children who will help work and eventually take over the family farm/business, help with finding food, or (in some cultures) be sold for money. A family in Niger, for example, may want to have 10 kids because only 6 may actually reach early adolescence.

Again, I'm not arguing against that trend. What I'm arguing is that we could fall to the point where mortality rate is significantly higher than birth rates because younger people simply give up on having a family. It's one thing for one generation to have had 7 kids on average then for that number to slowly decrease and stabilize at 2-3; it's another when the numbers decrease to less than 1 because people find that one is enough because they simply can't afford any more.

That's not a sign of an educated and prosperous population; it's a sign of a population that has no incentives to reproduce.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:00 am

NIKV69 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The anti-immigration zealots seem to be tone deaf that the healthy US population graph is the result of a fairly open immigration policy. That healthy population is also essential if we are to continue to be able to compete with China and the rest of the world.


These "zealots" you speak of are not against immigration. They are against illegal immigration. If my father can come here, declare himself, go through the process and become a citizen then everyone else can to.

The rest of your statement is correct.


You make it sound very easy. What country was he from? I’ll bet it was somewhere in western Europe without extensive suspicion and vetting by authorities. And how long ago?

We are not in those times anymore. My boss waited 2.5 years to get his college-educated Australian wife’s green card. That doesn’t make sense at all.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:37 am

We also need to consider that most of the people illegally crossing the border are here because those born here won't do the jobs that they are taking. And conveniently their children, given the chance, get an education and their children are likely to go to college. Do note that the people who hire those border crossers are conservative Republicans for the most part. Our economy to function well needs a lot of low paid workers. So those undocumented immigrants make for a better economy. And if you are religious minded remember that the Old Testament (Xn term) calls them sojourners and tells us to treat them well "because your forefathers were sojourners in the land of Egypt"!
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:58 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
We also need to consider that most of the people illegally crossing the border are here because those born here won't do the jobs that they are taking. And conveniently their children, given the chance, get an education and their children are likely to go to college. Do note that the people who hire those border crossers are conservative Republicans for the most part. Our economy to function well needs a lot of low paid workers. So those undocumented immigrants make for a better economy. And if you are religious minded remember that the Old Testament (Xn term) calls them sojourners and tells us to treat them well "because your forefathers were sojourners in the land of Egypt"!


All good points. When conservatives get serious about changing labor market dynamics in construction, agriculture, hospitality etc industries, then I’ll be able to take them seriously regarding illegal immigration.
 
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DL717
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:44 am

Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The anti-immigration zealots seem to be tone deaf that the healthy US population graph is the result of a fairly open immigration policy. That healthy population is also essential if we are to continue to be able to compete with China and the rest of the world.


These "zealots" you speak of are not against immigration. They are against illegal immigration. If my father can come here, declare himself, go through the process and become a citizen then everyone else can to.

The rest of your statement is correct.


You make it sound very easy. What country was he from? I’ll bet it was somewhere in western Europe without extensive suspicion and vetting by authorities. And how long ago?

We are not in those times anymore. My boss waited 2.5 years to get his college-educated Australian wife’s green card. That doesn’t make sense at all.


I’m sure your friend’s wife is ecstatic about the people that came here illegally and cut in front of her.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:52 am

DL717 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:

These "zealots" you speak of are not against immigration. They are against illegal immigration. If my father can come here, declare himself, go through the process and become a citizen then everyone else can to.

The rest of your statement is correct.


You make it sound very easy. What country was he from? I’ll bet it was somewhere in western Europe without extensive suspicion and vetting by authorities. And how long ago?

We are not in those times anymore. My boss waited 2.5 years to get his college-educated Australian wife’s green card. That doesn’t make sense at all.


I’m sure your friend’s wife is ecstatic about the people that came here illegally and cut in front of her.


They are a very compassionate couple and have expressed a lot of empathy for migrants from Latin America. No bitterness toward illegals whatsoever. Her grandparents came to Australia as refugees from the Greek civil war with the clothes on their backs.

Odd that you focused on that though and not the ridiculous amount of time it took for an English speaker from a friendly country to get a family PR visa.
 
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DL717
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:56 am

Aaron747 wrote:
DL717 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

You make it sound very easy. What country was he from? I’ll bet it was somewhere in western Europe without extensive suspicion and vetting by authorities. And how long ago?

We are not in those times anymore. My boss waited 2.5 years to get his college-educated Australian wife’s green card. That doesn’t make sense at all.


I’m sure your friend’s wife is ecstatic about the people that came here illegally and cut in front of her.


They are a very compassionate couple and have expressed a lot of empathy for migrants from Latin America. No bitterness toward illegals whatsoever. Her grandparents came to Australia as refugees from the Greek civil war with the clothes on their backs.

Odd that you focused on that though and not the ridiculous amount of time it took for an English speaker from a friendly country to get a family PR visa.


2.5 years isn’t a long time to get a green card. Sorry.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:06 am

DL717 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
DL717 wrote:

I’m sure your friend’s wife is ecstatic about the people that came here illegally and cut in front of her.


They are a very compassionate couple and have expressed a lot of empathy for migrants from Latin America. No bitterness toward illegals whatsoever. Her grandparents came to Australia as refugees from the Greek civil war with the clothes on their backs.

Odd that you focused on that though and not the ridiculous amount of time it took for an English speaker from a friendly country to get a family PR visa.


2.5 years isn’t a long time to get a green card. Sorry.


Nonsense. I have had employment visas processed for company sponsorees in less than seven months. Can pay more and get it done even faster. And for my boss, it was that much worse since his transfer back to the US came suddenly and they were separated months at a time. It just shows the authorities don’t value family relations as much as they claim.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:44 am

DL717 wrote:
I’m sure your friend’s wife is ecstatic about the people that came here illegally and cut in front of her.

Surely if they came illegally, they were never in the line to begin with? No line cutting involved!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 11:52 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Anecdotally that may be true, but it obviously isn't the case on a macro level. Many wealthy nations lavish families with all manor of benefits/subsidies/privileges to no effect on bringing their birth rates to even replacement level. Again, the trend that's being repeated the world over just seems to be that as countries industrialize, prosper, and become more educated, they choose to have less children.


Until the 60s people had children because that comes with the territory of, you know, having sex.

Now that it's a choice, if governments want people to have kids, then it should be an attractive choice. It's not "lavish" to provide things like childcare, it should be no different than providing schools.

I'm almost 40 and I have been to what you call "pre-K" at age 2, for free.

When I see US people paying 50K$ a year to send their kids to a fancy private school, I find that crazy. You can probably educate a thousand African kids for that amount.

I don't necessarily think replacement level is the goal, we could do with less people, it just has to be gradual to be manageable. China for example is realizing that it's facing a big problem.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:49 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Again, the trend that's being repeated the world over just seems to be that as countries industrialize, prosper, and become more educated, they choose to have less children.

Yes, they choose to have less children. But they don't fully close the door on having children at all.

Some do. Some don’t. It’s a highly personal decision. People have a much wider range of options now…couples are choosing to have no kids/1 kid, couples aren’t getting married, women are more able to delay or put off having kids into their 30s. I don’t know anyone in my millennial cohort who even wants more than 2 kids, if they even want kids at all.

einsteinboricua wrote:
That's not a sign of an educated and prosperous population; it's a sign of a population that has no incentives to reproduce.

Says who? Again, many countries provide A LOT of incentive to reproduce…but people evidently are weighing the value and lifestyle implications and still opting to have fewer/no children. I get what you’re saying about cost of living but you can’t force people to do something they fundamentally don’t want to do. I’m all for unleashing market forces and making reforms to lower the cost of living, but sorry, I don’t think someone deciding to have a family is inherently good or better than someone who decides not to have kids, and I don’t believe in bottomless wealth transfers from people with few/no children to those who’ve decided to have larger families. Maybe if these reproduction incentives actually worked I’d be more open, but they don’t. That tells me there are larger value and macroeconomic shifts at play…get people to fundamentally want kids again first, and then maybe it’d make sense to look at what incentives would goose people into action.

Aesma wrote:
Now that it's a choice, if governments want people to have kids, then it should be an attractive choice.

Problem is, it doesn’t work.

Aesma wrote:
When I see US people paying 50K$ a year to send their kids to a fancy private school, I find that crazy. You can probably educate a thousand African kids for that amount.

Expensive private schools don't exist in Europe?

I think that’s crazy, too, but then I don’t have kids or that kind of money. You could also educate thousands of African kids by not spending thousands of dollars per tax payer subsidizing families. Just saying…


Aesma wrote:
I don't necessarily think replacement level is the goal, we could do with less people, it just has to be gradual to be manageable. China for example is realizing that it's facing a big problem.

It’ll be interesting to be sure. In a way it’s a good problem to have, but historically reproduction has never been a challenge to human civilization. It’s a highly personal decision nowadays and people now have options. More than anything I think it’ll be a question of changing people’s values and attitudes towards having kids if we want people to maintain decent reproduction levels.
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:52 pm

The growth in cities like Dallas, Houston and Seattle is incredible. With the DFW metro already at nearly 8 million people, I can easily see it surpassing Chicago, which is rather sluggish at 9.4 million.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:04 pm

Aaron747 wrote:

You make it sound very easy. What country was he from? I’ll bet it was somewhere in western Europe without extensive suspicion and vetting by authorities. And how long ago?

We are not in those times anymore. My boss waited 2.5 years to get his college-educated Australian wife’s green card. That doesn’t make sense at all.


Italy. Suspicion of what? Vetting? Come on this is a smoke screen. People coming from the south should not just be let in here and handed citizenship that is just lunacy they can earn it like everyone else.
 
JJJ
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:33 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Says who? Again, many countries provide A LOT of incentive to reproduce…but people evidently are weighing the value and lifestyle implications and still opting to have fewer/no children. I get what you’re saying about cost of living but you can’t force people to do something they fundamentally don’t want to do. I’m all for unleashing market forces and making reforms to lower the cost of living, but sorry, I don’t think someone deciding to have a family is inherently good or better than someone who decides not to have kids, and I don’t believe in bottomless wealth transfers from people with few/no children to those who’ve decided to have larger families. Maybe if these reproduction incentives actually worked I’d be more open, but they don’t.


There is a definite correlation between birth rates and policy spending (plenty of papers on the issue).The problem is that it's not nearly enough.
 
alfa164
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:43 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
In the company I worked for automation meant less jobs In the main plant in Norway production staff dropped by 30% over 12 years whilst output and automation rose, at a company they bought in Poland a few years back staff dropped from 900 staff to 500 after the factory was automated to the same level as the Norwegian and German factories in the group.


So, to a certain extent, the jobs "lost" by your company went to the company who makes the automated equipment. Somewhere, somebody has to be working and make those products - which probably didn't exist when your company had 900 workers.


frmrCapCadet wrote:
We also need to consider that most of the people illegally crossing the border are here because those born here won't do the jobs that they are taking. And conveniently their children, given the chance, get an education and their children are likely to go to college. Do note that the people who hire those border crossers are conservative Republicans for the most part. Our economy to function well needs a lot of low paid workers. So those undocumented immigrants make for a better economy. And if you are religious minded remember that the Old Testament (Xn term) calls them sojourners and tells us to treat them well "because your forefathers were sojourners in the land of Egypt"!


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: Businesses know - and intelligent politicians also know, but are often afraid to admit - the increased immigrant labor will be necessary to sustain the standard of living we expect in the USA. Until we get a reformed immigration system, that allows for increased immigration levels of all classes of people, undocumented labor will continue to be the backbone of our economy.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:34 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

You make it sound very easy. What country was he from? I’ll bet it was somewhere in western Europe without extensive suspicion and vetting by authorities. And how long ago?

We are not in those times anymore. My boss waited 2.5 years to get his college-educated Australian wife’s green card. That doesn’t make sense at all.


Italy. Suspicion of what? Vetting? Come on this is a smoke screen. People coming from the south should not just be let in here and handed citizenship that is just lunacy they can earn it like everyone else.


Nobody is ‘handed’ citizenship - what on Earth are you talking about?

And yeah, like I thought, Italy :lol:
 
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ER757
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sun Aug 15, 2021 6:21 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
The growth in cities like Dallas, Houston and Seattle is incredible. With the DFW metro already at nearly 8 million people, I can easily see it surpassing Chicago, which is rather sluggish at 9.4 million.

I'm one that contributed to the Chicago decline and Seattle growth. But I did so before Seattle was the fashionable place to go - moved here over 30 years ago. So even though I really have no right to complain about too many people out here now, I still do because, well, that's what old curmudgeons are known for :old:
 
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IceCream
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By 2020 Census

Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:54 pm

Dutchy wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
To lessen the birth rate declining you need to make some changes, simple things like federally funded maternity/paternity leave for 12 months, no cost pre and post natal care, including the birth, all it should cost parents to have a child is parking at the hospital, this is pretty basic stuff that all other developed countries offer.

Doesn't really seems to work in other countries with declining birth rate.
And I am pretty certain US's birth rate is still on the relatively high side among developed countries although still below replacement level


Then one needs to ask if we want more people on earth, or are we ok with a 'controlled' decline? Most western nations and nations like Japan and China are well below the replacement level of 2,1 children per woman. It will mean something on a systemic level for countries, but not something we cannot handle.

I think the issue with a decline coming from fertility rates is that it makes the older population a significantly higher portion of the population, which rely on more social security, don't work/work less, contribute less to the economy etc. And as every generation goes the younger generation gets smaller and smaller.
 
Blerg
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Re: Major Demographic Changes Confirmed By US 2020 Census

Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:25 pm

As a white man I can't say that I am thrilled to see white US population shrink.
Anyway, there is something important to consider here. Millions of foreigners moved to the US because for decades , especially in the period 1950-1990 it was one of the rare places offering you a relatively comfortable life and a good income.

As US hegemony shrank, it's economy didn't change much. US companies lost many foreign markets (especially to China) meaning there was less capital flowing in from abroad. This was usually a good way to keep taxes low. Fast forward to today, the US system is operating as if we are in 1985 while immigrants have more and more options and can move to places like the EU, Canada and even countries like China, Turkey... are trying to get high skilled labor to move there. Soon enough the US will have to start competing for workforce which might force them to consider cheaper healthcare and maternity leave. You think Chicago and New York have to compete with Seattle or Austin? Well, Seattle, Austin, New York and Chicago might be competing soon with London, Paris, Istanbul, Shanghai... for young educated Americans.

Just like millions moved to the US for a better lifestyle, I can see millions more leaving the US to seek better opportunities elsewhere. This will especially happen if you have corporations killing off any form of competition out there.

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