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Aaron747
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Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:29 pm

Not looking good for the MSY area and other parts of LA and southern AL. The 7 AM advisory from NHC is pretty terse:

...IDA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1150.shtml?

Will have to keep a close eye on the data from this afternoon's Hunter flight.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:31 pm

I usually post to Levi's site. He keeps track of the recon flights, models and satellites.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
 
nwadeicer
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:33 pm

I never understand why anyone would want to live in that area of the US. It has a giant bullseye dartboard for every hurricane in the region. It's what, 8 feet in most areas, below sea level. It's also dependent on a system of dams, levees and walls to keep the water out. Now I realize that Amsterdam et al use the same type of systems however they don't have to deal with the yearly cat 5 hurricanes. All that with the added bonus of god awful humidity. To each their own I guess.
 
johns624
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:57 pm

nwadeicer wrote:
I never understand why anyone would want to live in that area of the US. It has a giant bullseye dartboard for every hurricane in the region. It's what, 8 feet in most areas, below sea level. It's also dependent on a system of dams, levees and walls to keep the water out. Now I realize that Amsterdam et al use the same type of systems however they don't have to deal with the yearly cat 5 hurricanes. All that with the added bonus of god awful humidity. To each their own I guess.
Because we keep paying to rebuild it.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:28 pm

New Orleans did reduce its population after Katrina. Has it crept back up in any substantial way? I somewhat came to the conclusion that the population should be low enough that vulnerable people could be evacuated before a major hurricane struck. A lot of those who died, most maybe, were in poor health and did not have the ability to 'self' evacuate. Nursing home being the most severely hit.
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:40 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Not looking good for the MSY area and other parts of LA and southern AL. The 7 AM advisory from NHC is pretty terse:

...IDA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1150.shtml?

Will have to keep a close eye on the data from this afternoon's Hunter flight.


To boot, I thought I saw that today (Saturday, August 28th) is the anniversary of Katrina making landfall in New Orleans.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:05 pm

nwadeicer wrote:
I never understand why anyone would want to live in that area of the US. It has a giant bullseye dartboard for every hurricane in the region. It's what, 8 feet in most areas, below sea level. It's also dependent on a system of dams, levees and walls to keep the water out. Now I realize that Amsterdam et al use the same type of systems however they don't have to deal with the yearly cat 5 hurricanes. All that with the added bonus of god awful humidity. To each their own I guess.


To be fair, a Cat 5 does not come very often and would be historic. Hurricane Camille was the most intense to make landfall in the region and that was way back in 1969.
 
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cjg225
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:09 pm

Not sure there's a city with better food than New Orleans. But, man, the humidity there is insane. I can't imagine what it must be like after a hurricane rolls through and dumps all that water.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:29 am

You can really see the massive cloud tops rising with this view:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sun Aug 29, 2021 8:03 am

As indicated on satellite this evening, Ida has strengthened impressively in the last few hours.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars indicate that Hurricane Ida has continued to
rapidly intensify this Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are
now estimated to be 130 mph (215 km/h). This makes Ida a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Ida's central pressure has fallen 6 millibars during the past hour.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0645.shtml

Central pressure now below 950 mb! Thanks as always to the NOAA and USAF flight crews who obtain this data at all hours.

Despite the system's forward speed, there may be enough RI left in the remaining 12 or so hours to reach Cat 5, no?
 
marcelh
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sun Aug 29, 2021 8:48 am

johns624 wrote:
nwadeicer wrote:
I never understand why anyone would want to live in that area of the US. It has a giant bullseye dartboard for every hurricane in the region. It's what, 8 feet in most areas, below sea level. It's also dependent on a system of dams, levees and walls to keep the water out. Now I realize that Amsterdam et al use the same type of systems however they don't have to deal with the yearly cat 5 hurricanes. All that with the added bonus of god awful humidity. To each their own I guess.
Because we keep paying to rebuild it.

And in the Netherlands we pay to prevent it from flooding
 
ltbewr
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:12 am

Making things even worse with this hurricane will be it occurring during a huge spike in Covid-19 infections in a region of the USA where it is very bad already. That makes seeking shelter more difficult, hospitals unable to take care of injured, recovery made more complicated. I just hope we don't see the horrors of Katrina repeat themselves in the City of New Orleans.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sun Aug 29, 2021 4:47 pm

Ida is forecast to hit the industrial corridor between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, site of three key ports, petrochemical sites, and a nuclear power plant.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021 ... structure/

New Orleans’ impossible situation

A mandatory evacuation was issued for portions of New Orleans outside of their levee system on Friday, and a voluntary evacuation for inside the levee system. However, no mandatory evacuation was ordered for the city because officials judged there was insufficient time to set up contraflow, having all lanes of traffic converted to lead out of town.

Many have criticized this decision, but New Orleans found itself in an impossible situation: the city needs a full 72 hours to fully evacuate, and making reliable intensity forecasts that far in advance is very difficult. We will have to accept New Orleans’ vulnerability to major hurricanes unless tens of billions are spent to upgrade the city’s defenses to category 5 capability. As discussed in yesterday’s post, there is reason to be optimistic that New Orleans’ levee system will withstand Ida’s storm surge: The 7-11′ surge predicted for the city is below the maximum surge that Hurricane Isaac of 2012 brought.
 
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ER757
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:46 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
Ida is forecast to hit the industrial corridor between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, site of three key ports, petrochemical sites, and a nuclear power plant.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021 ... structure/

New Orleans’ impossible situation

A mandatory evacuation was issued for portions of New Orleans outside of their levee system on Friday, and a voluntary evacuation for inside the levee system. However, no mandatory evacuation was ordered for the city because officials judged there was insufficient time to set up contraflow, having all lanes of traffic converted to lead out of town.

Many have criticized this decision, but New Orleans found itself in an impossible situation: the city needs a full 72 hours to fully evacuate, and making reliable intensity forecasts that far in advance is very difficult. We will have to accept New Orleans’ vulnerability to major hurricanes unless tens of billions are spent to upgrade the city’s defenses to category 5 capability. As discussed in yesterday’s post, there is reason to be optimistic that New Orleans’ levee system will withstand Ida’s storm surge: The 7-11′ surge predicted for the city is below the maximum surge that Hurricane Isaac of 2012 brought.

Was watching NBC and the reporter said that about 18% of the oil that comes in to the US enters through that port, so I'd expect gas prices to jump if the local infrastructure doesn't withstand the pounding of wind and waves
 
Kent350787
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:26 pm

MSY appears to be closed ATM.

Best of luck to NOLA and surrounds - had a great visit last year, and hope to go back.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:39 pm

this makes me think back to the time I visited New Orleans in 2007. Still a terrible mess in the effective suburbs. The French quarter was fine, of course. But still.
 
phatfarmlines
Posts: 1996
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:34 am

Power is out for the entire NOLA metro area. Not sure what this means for the operation of the water pumps (I'm hoping those are on separate back-up generators):

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 641741001/
 
NIKV69
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:41 am

Wow watching Cantore get blown around like a rag doll. This is some storm.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:06 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Wow watching Cantore get blown around like a rag doll. This is some storm.


Yeah kinda obvious - still under 950 mb hours after landfall.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:49 pm

Investing billions to upgrade infrastructure might be better than paying billions to repair damage, then get it again a bit later ?

And of course paying crazy insurance premiums.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:22 pm

https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-id ... ac28c24150

Ida Updates: Nuclear plant loses offsite electrical power

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission says a nuclear power plant 25 miles west of New Orleans has declared an “unusual event″ — its lowest level of emergency — after the facility lost offsite electrical power.

https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-id ... 9534c6c290

It is estimated that approximately 94.6% of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut in, according to operator reports. New Orleans police are working with the Louisiana National Guard to prevent thefts. Police are working 12-hour shifts, and it’s “all hands on deck,” Ferguson said. “The best advice is to stay put where you are” if you evacuated, Stephens said. “People who have evacuated out of the state should stay where they are right now.” With widespread AT&T cell service outages, many people were frantically trying to reach loved ones and were unsuccessful.

More than 1 million customers in Louisiana and Mississippi — including all of New Orleans — were left without power as Ida, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. mainland, pushed through on Sunday and early Monday before weakening into a tropical storm. Officials warned it could be weeks before the power grid is repaired.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:27 pm

The current models show that IDA is going to give the same areas of Tenn/NC that got wrecked over a week ago, an extra dosing of 5-10 inches of rain tonight into Wednesday.

A very powerful storm with very heavy rains creating the biggest new threat.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:45 pm

nwadeicer wrote:
I never understand why anyone would want to live in that area of the US. It has a giant bullseye dartboard for every hurricane in the region. It's what, 8 feet in most areas, below sea level. It's also dependent on a system of dams, levees and walls to keep the water out. Now I realize that Amsterdam et al use the same type of systems however they don't have to deal with the yearly cat 5 hurricanes. All that with the added bonus of god awful humidity. To each their own I guess.

Yeah, and will add, some god-awful insects too.

Yet some people are born into it and won't give it up.

DIRECTFLT wrote:
With widespread AT&T cell service outages, many people were frantically trying to reach loved ones and were unsuccessful.

That happens even without the hurricane.
Last edited by Revelation on Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ER757
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:48 pm

casinterest wrote:
The current models show that IDA is going to give the same areas of Tenn/NC that got wrecked over a week ago, an extra dosing of 5-10 inches of rain tonight into Wednesday.

A very powerful storm with very heavy rains creating the biggest new threat.

Oh man, salt in the wounds :cry: I feel so bad for those folks, jut getting over a major disaster and here comes another one, just awful.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:56 pm

About the nuclear plant : The plant has maintained safe shutdown conditions with power from emergency diesel generators, the nuclear agency said.

It should be OK but I wonder if restoring the grid to it is being prioritized, or if other measures are taken to add a safety layer.

Since Fukushima these diesel generators have probably been improved if needed, put at height to prevent flooding for example.

In a similar case in France I think an additional generator would probably be flown in (or trucked in if roads permit) just in case.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:50 am

Sad Story

https://twitter.com/ErikaFerrandoTV/sta ... 6994042883

STPSO update: A 71 year old man in Slidell, La. was in his shed, which had several feet of water in it. His wife heard commotion and discovered an alligator attacking him. She pulled him onto stairs and left to get help. His body has not been found. Large alligators are common in this area.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Tue Aug 31, 2021 4:39 pm

While we won't see the mass humanitarian disaster in New Orleans of Katrina, Ida seems to be much worse than Katrina in terms of wind damage and flooding elsewhere in Louisiana, Mississippi. This is also with a major spike in Covid-19 in the region. Death numbers will rise as flood water recede and rescue staff can get in their.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Tue Aug 31, 2021 4:46 pm

nwadeicer wrote:
I never understand why anyone would want to live in that area of the US. It has a giant bullseye dartboard for every hurricane in the region. It's what, 8 feet in most areas, below sea level. It's also dependent on a system of dams, levees and walls to keep the water out. Now I realize that Amsterdam et al use the same type of systems however they don't have to deal with the yearly cat 5 hurricanes. All that with the added bonus of god awful humidity. To each their own I guess.


Follow the Dutch model to protect areas like New Orleans and other vulnerable cities. However I will say that the upgrades to the Levee system did hold up well in New Orleans this time around. This 60 minutes piece from 2019 was fantastic.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/storm-wate ... 019-07-21/
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:11 pm

Some of these communities like Grand Isle and LaPlace are just ruined wholesale. Infrastructure and homes seriously water and wind damaged. Won’t be back to normal for months at a minimum.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:17 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
nwadeicer wrote:
I never understand why anyone would want to live in that area of the US. It has a giant bullseye dartboard for every hurricane in the region. It's what, 8 feet in most areas, below sea level. It's also dependent on a system of dams, levees and walls to keep the water out. Now I realize that Amsterdam et al use the same type of systems however they don't have to deal with the yearly cat 5 hurricanes. All that with the added bonus of god awful humidity. To each their own I guess.


Follow the Dutch model to protect areas like New Orleans and other vulnerable cities. However I will say that the upgrades to the Levee system did hold up well in New Orleans this time around. This 60 minutes piece from 2019 was fantastic.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/storm-wate ... 019-07-21/



New Orleans was lucky this time. The storm went to the west. A East landing storm is a bigger problem for NO as it forces the water to be pushed southward in Lake Pontchartrain. This is what happened in Katrina. Ida to the east of NO, would probably have overwhelmed the Levee system.

Found this on another site.
Breathtaking satellite shots of the damaged areas.

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ida/ ... 0/-90.2211
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:51 am

Ida's remnants wrought total havoc across MD, PA, and the Tri-State area this evening. Tornadoes, flooding, you name it. Nasty stuff.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:18 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Ida's remnants wrought total havoc across MD, PA, and the Tri-State area this evening. Tornadoes, flooding, you name it. Nasty stuff.


Damaging Tornadoes, Flash Flooding from Ida's Remnants Rip Through Philly, New Jersey, New York

https://weather.com/news/news/2021-09-0 ... lantic-ida

State of Emergency Declared in New Jersey

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy declared a state of emergency at about 10 p.m. "We will use every resource at our disposal to ensure the safety of New Jerseyans," the governor tweeted. "Stay off the roads, stay home, and stay safe."
 
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cjg225
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 12:13 pm

Seems like it was a fun night at EWR. https://twitter.com/billritter7/status/ ... 1313005570

They got 3.24 inches (8.23 cm) of rain in 1 hour around 8-9pm local.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 2:52 pm

The damage being seen this morning in NJ and PA is just unbelievable. :sad:
 
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casinterest
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:37 pm

This storm is probably going to be around 100+ Billion in damage.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:40 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
The damage being seen this morning in NJ and PA is just unbelievable. :sad:


The video from the terminal at EWR was insane!
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:26 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
The damage being seen this morning in NJ and PA is just unbelievable. :sad:


Hurricane Ida's Remnants Blamed for at Least 23 Deaths in NYC, New Jersey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y3mz0bCZ9A
 
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ER757
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:49 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
The damage being seen this morning in NJ and PA is just unbelievable. :sad:

Saw a video (I think it was on the CNN website) of an NYC subway train that looked like it was being run through a carwash. Just a deluge of water pouring in from above. And the steps up to the street from the platform were a waterfall. What a mess
 
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casinterest
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:26 pm

12 minute time lapsed to two minutes from Waverly Tennessee

https://twitter.com/joshbreslowtn/statu ... 1990317066

That flooding happened fast.

Original is in this story.
https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/l ... 699548001/
 
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cjg225
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Thu Sep 02, 2021 11:46 pm

casinterest wrote:
12 minute time lapsed to two minutes from Waverly Tennessee

https://twitter.com/joshbreslowtn/statu ... 1990317066

That flooding happened fast.

Original is in this story.
https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/l ... 699548001/

Whooooosh..... Stuff gets real when those cars float by.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:31 am

The NYC/NJ stuff is real scary, the force that the system has continued.

Looking at FR24, MSY is still closed for RPT.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Hurricane Ida Incoming for MSY

Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:10 pm

cjg225 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
12 minute time lapsed to two minutes from Waverly Tennessee

https://twitter.com/joshbreslowtn/statu ... 1990317066

That flooding happened fast.

Original is in this story.
https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/l ... 699548001/

Whooooosh..... Stuff gets real when those cars float by.



More Crazy weather vids. The flash floods show how vulnerable the east coast is to warmer wetter air.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHl2C8NA6Eg

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