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Aaron747
Posts: 15998
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:04 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
I also think that this was by far more a repudiation of the GOP than it was a vote of confidence for Mr. Newsom. I've been disappointed and frustrated with him as a governor, but I would rather a governor who is more competent and honest, not less.


Then you should have supported Faulconer he fits your description. If he got more people on board and polled better than Elder things could have been different.


The real problem with the GOP right now is the Larry Hogan / Faulconer variety of Republican who are socially to the left and just want to steward an economy without crazy taxation or regulation are automatically RINOs for not going all out MAGA. GOP needs to wake up to that and kill off Trumpism or this kind of Republican who centrists will actually vote for can't ever win anything again.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:13 pm

I had to break out some good champagne last night. Haha, these MAGAts always make me laugh. And Caitlyn Jenner with 52,000 votes? Girl go home. :rotfl:
 
NIKV69
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:19 pm

Tugger wrote:
It appears some (many?) Republican's do not understand or acknowledge that they are divided as a party (as divided as the Dems I think). They started the recall and successfully got it implemented only to not be able to produce a cohesive message (other than "Newsome bad!") or candidate. One of the guys that I think started and really pushed the recall, hated Faulkner and was unable to support him. Then when Elder came into the race, this guy went all in with him. This guy, a political shill and Trump fanatic who only works to increase the attention on himself, is endemic of the Republican party and the dumbness of it in California.

As I have noted clearly, I do not want or support Trumplican's or the more fanatical Republican elements. Keep a lid on taxes, make sure we are paying for what we do and that everyone has "skin in the game", reduce bloat legislation on business, but get out of social engineering or accept the way California is. Elder wanted wholesale changes and promised such. Stop and get out of the way. Let the more moderate Republican's do their work in California.

Tugg


At the end of the day the moderate democrats still supported Newsom. If they stepped up and supported Faulconer who fits the bill for the fair taxation and the other things you listed above. Elder never would have that type of lead. It's clear even the moderate republicans or democrats are not wanted in CA so as they say, you wanted it you got it. We will see in the next normal election for governor when Faulconer runs again.
 
Newark727
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:33 pm

Republicans overplayed their hand. Yes, Newsom's pandemic response left lots of people unhappy, and the whole French Laundry affair is one of the dumbest things I've seen a politician do in recent memory, but to win this, they needed to keep the Democratic majority relatively uninterested. Putting a talk-radio host on the ballot was absolutely the wrong way to do that - provoking people is like 70% of his job!
 
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Tugger
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:34 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
At the end of the day the moderate democrats still supported Newsom. If they stepped up and supported Faulconer who fits the bill for the fair taxation and the other things you listed above. Elder never would have that type of lead. It's clear even the moderate republicans or democrats are not wanted in CA so as they say, you wanted it you got it. We will see in the next normal election for governor when Faulconer runs again.

No that is not accurate. Elders sucked all the air out of the room. And a vote for recall and Faulkner appeared to be a vote for Elder with his apparent lead in the polls. That was not OK. I had started out a "yes" on the recall, but Elders success changed that. In the end, I was "no" on recall and then selected Faulkner if it succeeded.

The results of the vote I think, were far more a "no" on someone like Elders, than a "yes" on Newsome. It certainly was for me.

Tugg
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:28 pm

Hopefully Governor Newsom has been humbled by this [rather expensive] process.

All things considered, I would say 2022 is for his to lose.

But where does this put California Republicans?

Does the GOP try to convince Governor Abbott to help them move to Texas?
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:37 pm

phatfarmlines wrote:
Hopefully Governor Newsom has been humbled by this [rather expensive] process.


I do not know why he would be. That vote was so lopsided, it was basically Elder Abuse.

phatfarmlines wrote:
All things considered, I would say 2022 is for his to lose.


Very likely. An advert campaign centered around how much this GOP failure cost does two things.

1. Highlight to Ds & Independents the recklessness GOP are willing to resort to.
2. Make it clear to the GOP that they cannot win this state for any cost.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:06 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
phatfarmlines wrote:
Hopefully Governor Newsom has been humbled by this [rather expensive] process.


I do not know why he would be. That vote was so lopsided, it was basically Elder Abuse.

phatfarmlines wrote:
All things considered, I would say 2022 is for his to lose.


Very likely. An advert campaign centered around how much this GOP failure cost does two things.

1. Highlight to Ds & Independents the recklessness GOP are willing to resort to.
2. Make it clear to the GOP that they cannot win this state for any cost.


Elder was trying too hard to play like Trump in interviews and throw ‘gotcha’ back at reporters - Californians basically don’t like that crap. Doesn’t play well here at all. A serious candidate for next year will need to be prepared on issues, have credible plans, and not just say ‘Newsom is a freedom hater’ all the time.
 
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Aesma
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:21 am

NIKV69 wrote:
At the end of the day the moderate democrats still supported Newsom. If they stepped up and supported Faulconer who fits the bill for the fair taxation and the other things you listed above. Elder never would have that type of lead. It's clear even the moderate republicans or democrats are not wanted in CA so as they say, you wanted it you got it. We will see in the next normal election for governor when Faulconer runs again.


If the GOP had some sense and was an unified party, they should have run a primary before the recall vote, to have only one GOP backed candidate on the ballot.

If that candidate had been a sensible one (big if) then the recall could have happened.

For someone, even a Republican, just not a Trumpista, to recall a known entity, Newsom, to get instead a lunatic, isn't exactly an enticing proposition.

The California Republicans acted like they do in some ultra red states where it's GOP vs GOP and who can be the purest crazy dumb mofo, well California isn't one of these states.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:06 am

Aesma wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
At the end of the day the moderate democrats still supported Newsom. If they stepped up and supported Faulconer who fits the bill for the fair taxation and the other things you listed above. Elder never would have that type of lead. It's clear even the moderate republicans or democrats are not wanted in CA so as they say, you wanted it you got it. We will see in the next normal election for governor when Faulconer runs again.


If the GOP had some sense and was an unified party, they should have run a primary before the recall vote, to have only one GOP backed candidate on the ballot.

If that candidate had been a sensible one (big if) then the recall could have happened.

For someone, even a Republican, just not a Trumpista, to recall a known entity, Newsom, to get instead a lunatic, isn't exactly an enticing proposition.

The California Republicans acted like they do in some ultra red states where it's GOP vs GOP and who can be the purest crazy dumb mofo, well California isn't one of these states.


They're not really trying to win - or they're just being advised by grifters. It actually shouldn't be *too* hard to get a non-MAGA GOP candidate into office. They can do it by:

- Avoiding culture war issues. Don't criticize wokeism, don't criticize social spending, and don't criticize CRT/public education/teachers etc. Don't even *mention* abortion. One of the most powerful blocs of CA voters are educated suburban women and they are basically not going to budge on this stuff. You have to talk about the stuff below to capture them.

- If you talk about crime and homelessness, don't demonize the criminals and homeless. That turns the people I mentioned above off. Talk about solutions. Talk about expanding job training, trade schools, back to work programs after prison. Talk about expanding state coordination with faith-based groups for homeless shelters if NIMBYs don't want them, and talk about a public-private partnership to open more mental hospitals and low cost drug rehab.

- If you talk about wildfires, don't demonize environmentalists or mention Trumpian nonsense like 'forest management'. Californians are serious about their environment. Talk about expanded recruiting for Cal Fire, tree replanting programs, going after PG&E for damages, limits to future development in mountain areas, etc.

- If you talk about the economy, don't demonize Big Tech or Hollywood. Hundreds of thousands of Californians are employed in those industries. Talk instead about trade schools, expanded tax incentives for SMBs, and providing meaningful EDD assistance for career transitions and skill advancement. On healthcare, hedge and say there are both public and private ways to address high drug costs and MediCal access restrictions.

Also regardless of the narratives from both left and right media, CA is not as progressive as people outside the state believe. This is borne out in analyzing who the independent voters are:

In surveys over the past year, independent likely voters have been somewhat more likely to lean Democratic (52%) than Republican (36%); 12% did not lean toward either party.
These shares have shifted since 2017, when 43% leaned Democratic, 29% leaned Republican, and 28% did not lean toward either party.
Independent likely voters are more likely to be moderate (44%) than liberal (29%) or conservative (27%).


https://www.ppic.org/publication/califo ... -profiles/
 
luckyone
Posts: 4037
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:53 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
At the end of the day the moderate democrats still supported Newsom. If they stepped up and supported Faulconer who fits the bill for the fair taxation and the other things you listed above. Elder never would have that type of lead. It's clear even the moderate republicans or democrats are not wanted in CA so as they say, you wanted it you got it. We will see in the next normal election for governor when Faulconer runs again.


If the GOP had some sense and was an unified party, they should have run a primary before the recall vote, to have only one GOP backed candidate on the ballot.

If that candidate had been a sensible one (big if) then the recall could have happened.

For someone, even a Republican, just not a Trumpista, to recall a known entity, Newsom, to get instead a lunatic, isn't exactly an enticing proposition.

The California Republicans acted like they do in some ultra red states where it's GOP vs GOP and who can be the purest crazy dumb mofo, well California isn't one of these states.


They're not really trying to win - or they're just being advised by grifters. It actually shouldn't be *too* hard to get a non-MAGA GOP candidate into office. They can do it by:

- Avoiding culture war issues. Don't criticize wokeism, don't criticize social spending, and don't criticize CRT/public education/teachers etc. Don't even *mention* abortion. One of the most powerful blocs of CA voters are educated suburban women and they are basically not going to budge on this stuff. You have to talk about the stuff below to capture them.

- If you talk about crime and homelessness, don't demonize the criminals and homeless. That turns the people I mentioned above off. Talk about solutions. Talk about expanding job training, trade schools, back to work programs after prison. Talk about expanding state coordination with faith-based groups for homeless shelters if NIMBYs don't want them, and talk about a public-private partnership to open more mental hospitals and low cost drug rehab.

- If you talk about wildfires, don't demonize environmentalists or mention Trumpian nonsense like 'forest management'. Californians are serious about their environment. Talk about expanded recruiting for Cal Fire, tree replanting programs, going after PG&E for damages, limits to future development in mountain areas, etc.

- If you talk about the economy, don't demonize Big Tech or Hollywood. Hundreds of thousands of Californians are employed in those industries. Talk instead about trade schools, expanded tax incentives for SMBs, and providing meaningful EDD assistance for career transitions and skill advancement. On healthcare, hedge and say there are both public and private ways to address high drug costs and MediCal access restrictions.

Also regardless of the narratives from both left and right media, CA is not as progressive as people outside the state believe. This is borne out in analyzing who the independent voters are:

In surveys over the past year, independent likely voters have been somewhat more likely to lean Democratic (52%) than Republican (36%); 12% did not lean toward either party.
These shares have shifted since 2017, when 43% leaned Democratic, 29% leaned Republican, and 28% did not lean toward either party.
Independent likely voters are more likely to be moderate (44%) than liberal (29%) or conservative (27%).


https://www.ppic.org/publication/califo ... -profiles/

The problem is it's pretty clear that a substantial number of Republican voters want a show as they're responding to bombast and pageantry more than any discussion about the actual issue. What's ironic is for most of my upbringing years they criticized "Hollywood" in politics. But, at the same time, these are voters who have either not participated, or they're voters that up until recently voted Democrat. They haven't changed. Their voting pattern is all that has changed.
 
ltbewr
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:38 pm

As another poster suggested, Newsom should be humbled by this recall election despite his margin of victory. He needs to find a balance as to many polices, and be very careful not to give political ammo to Republicans in his behaviors. Over 1/3 of voters wanted to fire him for issues from taxation to homelessness that all need attention. Failing to deal with them to some extent will doom his re-election unless another Elder or RWNJ is the Republican candidate.
 
luckyone
Posts: 4037
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:07 pm

ltbewr wrote:
As another poster suggested, Newsom should be humbled by this recall election despite his margin of victory. He needs to find a balance as to many polices, and be very careful not to give political ammo to Republicans in his behaviors. Over 1/3 of voters wanted to fire him for issues from taxation to homelessness that all need attention. Failing to deal with them to some extent will doom his re-election unless another Elder or RWNJ is the Republican candidate.

That's somewhat of a stretch. That number is more or less consistent with the number of voters that didn't vote for him in the first place.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:40 pm

ltbewr wrote:
As another poster suggested, Newsom should be humbled by this recall election despite his margin of victory. He needs to find a balance as to many polices, and be very careful not to give political ammo to Republicans in his behaviors. Over 1/3 of voters wanted to fire him for issues from taxation to homelessness that all need attention. Failing to deal with them to some extent will doom his re-election unless another Elder or RWNJ is the Republican candidate.


He can have an impact on the former but not the latter. Sacramento can't do much to solve homelessness. It is handled at a municipal and sometimes county level.
 
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seb146
Posts: 23963
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: VP Harris to California to campaign for Gavin Newsom

Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:16 pm

ltbewr wrote:
As another poster suggested, Newsom should be humbled by this recall election despite his margin of victory. He needs to find a balance as to many polices, and be very careful not to give political ammo to Republicans in his behaviors. Over 1/3 of voters wanted to fire him for issues from taxation to homelessness that all need attention. Failing to deal with them to some extent will doom his re-election unless another Elder or RWNJ is the Republican candidate.


You also forget that some people want Newsom removed because of his vaccine and mask stands.

As long as Republicans continue to push farther and farther to the right and continue with their MAGA rhetoric, Democrats will continue to control California. If Republicans started going left, they would win more seats and possibly the governor's office. But, I don't see that happening.

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