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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:32 pm

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASPB13DZPPB1UTFK003.html
As Japan's vaccination rate exceeded the US, with 70% receiving at least 1-dose and 60% have got their second dose already, they announced cancellation of all coronavirus related emergency declaration, although some local restrictions are still in place.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:04 pm

I'm not sure if it is the booster, or enough kids being vaccinated, but israel's case rate is plummeting.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Prior peak was over 1250 cases per million, now at 453 cases per million and dropping fast (see above link)

They note 255,444 12-15 year olds have 2 doses, 331,538 have received 1st dose. The article notes only 12 of those 255,444 has the heart inflammation. I suspect, but obviously cannot prove that the virus might contribute (I currently have heart inflammation from the virus, not the vaccine as the inflammation happened 4 months after vaccine when I *know* I was exposed to the virus 4 and 6 days before the start of the issue. No other symptoms at all.).
https://theworldnews.net/il-news/only-1 ... -in-israel

Israel now at 64% two doses+, 70% of the population has had one dose:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Considering how well Spain is doing, this could be as simple as getting enough doses. Except, the UK isn't doing as well for cases. So the question becomes, is there a vaccine level high enough to mitigate spread or is this a mix of vaccinations with exposure with the vulnerable population exposed.

I really wanted to declare boosters were the reason for Israel's case drop. But as a professional data analyst, I can only say "not sure, it looks like it really helped." It certainly helped severe cases. I look forward to someone inventing a vaccine that really slows the spread. (I am of the opinion one helps more than others mitigate transmission, but the data isn't 100% clear, so I'll keep my opinion to myself, just note it isn't the one I took).

Lightsaber
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Oct 01, 2021 11:51 pm

Merck is moving to seek a EUA for their oral antiviral COVID treatment after a Phase 3 study showed “compelling results”, prompting the halt of the study and the quick move to seek approval:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/merck-t ... tment.html

Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said Friday they’ve developed a drug that reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by around 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases of Covid.

The companies plan to seek emergency authorization for the antiviral Covid treatment after the medicine showed “compelling results” in clinical trials.

The drug, molnupiravir, is administered orally and works by inhibiting the replication of the coronavirus inside the body.

An interim analysis of a phase 3 study found that 7.3% of patients treated with molnupiravir were hospitalized within 29 days. Of the patients who received a placebo, 14.1% were hospitalized or died by day 29. No deaths were reported in patients who were given molnupiravir within the 29-day period, while eight deaths were reported in placebo-treated patients.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 12:05 am

lightsaber wrote:
I'm not sure if it is the booster, or enough kids being vaccinated, but israel's case rate is plummeting.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Prior peak was over 1250 cases per million, now at 453 cases per million and dropping fast (see above link)

They note 255,444 12-15 year olds have 2 doses, 331,538 have received 1st dose. The article notes only 12 of those 255,444 has the heart inflammation. I suspect, but obviously cannot prove that the virus might contribute (I currently have heart inflammation from the virus, not the vaccine as the inflammation happened 4 months after vaccine when I *know* I was exposed to the virus 4 and 6 days before the start of the issue. No other symptoms at all.).
https://theworldnews.net/il-news/only-1 ... -in-israel

Israel now at 64% two doses+, 70% of the population has had one dose:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Considering how well Spain is doing, this could be as simple as getting enough doses. Except, the UK isn't doing as well for cases. So the question becomes, is there a vaccine level high enough to mitigate spread or is this a mix of vaccinations with exposure with the vulnerable population exposed.

I really wanted to declare boosters were the reason for Israel's case drop. But as a professional data analyst, I can only say "not sure, it looks like it really helped." It certainly helped severe cases. I look forward to someone inventing a vaccine that really slows the spread. (I am of the opinion one helps more than others mitigate transmission, but the data isn't 100% clear, so I'll keep my opinion to myself, just note it isn't the one I took).

Lightsaber


Logic says it's the influence of vaccinated kids. Just think about how children interact with family members, touch things with boogery fingers in public, cough without covering, don't wear masks properly and all that jazz. It has to make a huge difference in reducing the viral load they can spread.
 
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cjg225
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 12:36 am

ThePointblank wrote:
Merck is moving to seek a EUA for their oral antiviral COVID treatment after a Phase 3 study showed “compelling results”, prompting the halt of the study and the quick move to seek approval:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/merck-t ... tment.html

Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said Friday they’ve developed a drug that reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by around 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases of Covid.

The companies plan to seek emergency authorization for the antiviral Covid treatment after the medicine showed “compelling results” in clinical trials.

The drug, molnupiravir, is administered orally and works by inhibiting the replication of the coronavirus inside the body.

An interim analysis of a phase 3 study found that 7.3% of patients treated with molnupiravir were hospitalized within 29 days. Of the patients who received a placebo, 14.1% were hospitalized or died by day 29. No deaths were reported in patients who were given molnupiravir within the 29-day period, while eight deaths were reported in placebo-treated patients.

Merck needed a win after going 0-3 on their first three attempts at getting into the COVID game. It'll be interesting to see what demand is really like for this. I wonder how it'll be identified, prescribed, and administered reliably in the time frame needed since I guess it needs to be started quite early in the COVID contraction cycle to be effective.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 1:12 am

cjg225 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Merck is moving to seek a EUA for their oral antiviral COVID treatment after a Phase 3 study showed “compelling results”, prompting the halt of the study and the quick move to seek approval:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/merck-t ... tment.html

Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said Friday they’ve developed a drug that reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by around 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases of Covid.

The companies plan to seek emergency authorization for the antiviral Covid treatment after the medicine showed “compelling results” in clinical trials.

The drug, molnupiravir, is administered orally and works by inhibiting the replication of the coronavirus inside the body.

An interim analysis of a phase 3 study found that 7.3% of patients treated with molnupiravir were hospitalized within 29 days. Of the patients who received a placebo, 14.1% were hospitalized or died by day 29. No deaths were reported in patients who were given molnupiravir within the 29-day period, while eight deaths were reported in placebo-treated patients.

Merck needed a win after going 0-3 on their first three attempts at getting into the COVID game. It'll be interesting to see what demand is really like for this. I wonder how it'll be identified, prescribed, and administered reliably in the time frame needed since I guess it needs to be started quite early in the COVID contraction cycle to be effective.


For them to have the trials halted because the results were so promising so quickly is really remarkable.

The mechanism that molnupiravir works is really interesting; it works by messing with how the viral RNA is replicated in the host cell, and it is able to skip the cell's proofreading capabilities which other similar drugs seem to struggle with. It is basically a synthetic nucleotide; RNA polymerase uses it instead of a normal ribonucleotide and that would foul up replication of the viral genome.

It could also be used for other coronavirus infections, and possibly other viruses as well.

The scientific paper on how the drug works are here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41594-021-00657-8
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41594-021-00651-0

I've read that Merck has already gone and started mass production of molnupiravir, and have also licensed it out to a number of other drug manufacturers to ease access. I would definitely say this is a major step in the right direction.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 3:12 am

In France this is mandatory. All unvaccinated healthcare workers are either on leave, vacation, or already fired. So far the healthcare system is coping (but the COVID wave is low).

About the Merck drug, I'm reading the US government ordered it for $700 for a 5-day course, I have my doubts it will be used outside the US at that price.
 
Toenga
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:03 am

Aesma wrote:
In France this is mandatory. All unvaccinated healthcare workers are either on leave, vacation, or already fired. So far the healthcare system is coping (but the COVID wave is low).

About the Merck drug, I'm reading the US government ordered it for $700 for a 5-day course, I have my doubts it will be used outside the US at that price.

Compared to even just one day in hospital it seems very reasonably priced.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:10 am

Aesma wrote:
In France this is mandatory. All unvaccinated healthcare workers are either on leave, vacation, or already fired. So far the healthcare system is coping (but the COVID wave is low).

About the Merck drug, I'm reading the US government ordered it for $700 for a 5-day course, I have my doubts it will be used outside the US at that price.

Merck has licensed it to a number of generic companies in India, and they've mentioned that there is a price structure based upon ability to pay; higher wealth countries will pay more, lower wealth countries pay less.
 
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cjg225
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 2:14 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
It could also be used for other coronavirus infections, and possibly other viruses as well.

The scientific paper on how the drug works are here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41594-021-00657-8
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41594-021-00651-0

I've read that Merck has already gone and started mass production of molnupiravir, and have also licensed it out to a number of other drug manufacturers to ease access. I would definitely say this is a major step in the right direction.

Yeah, if this is useful against other viral infections, that could be a pretty big deal for Merck. There is mounting pressure on them about their reliance on the blockbuster oncology drug Keytruda, which has patent expiry in about 6 years (which isn't that long in Pharma Years, as I'm sure you know based on your knowledge of the industry). Not sure I could see this being a blockbuster in the sense of billions a year for a long time, but it could be something to help spread risk for them. This potential Acceleron acquisition looks... weird... if they're trying to grow sustainable revenue outside of oncology.

Anyway... Yes, there's the low-income country license and probably a crap ton of Contract Manufacturing for this, like all the vaccine manufacturers have had to do (heck, Merck is a CMO for the J&J vaccine given Merck's premier expertise in vaccine manufacturing). Merck is a pretty risk-averse company, but when the chips are down they take risks they wouldn't normally take. Probably a lot of manufacturing on risk right now.
Aesma wrote:
About the Merck drug, I'm reading the US government ordered it for $700 for a 5-day course, I have my doubts it will be used outside the US at that price.

"at that price" is probably a good qualifier for any drug. Drug prices in the US != drug prices nearly anywhere else.

Merck will likely be shipping this all over the world, but probably on heavy-duty allocation. US likely gets first dibs on what it wants, but it'll go worldwide. Would be a massive PR fiasco if they didn't.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:33 pm

Toenga wrote:
Aesma wrote:
In France this is mandatory. All unvaccinated healthcare workers are either on leave, vacation, or already fired. So far the healthcare system is coping (but the COVID wave is low).

About the Merck drug, I'm reading the US government ordered it for $700 for a 5-day course, I have my doubts it will be used outside the US at that price.

Compared to even just one day in hospital it seems very reasonably priced.


Except the idea is to give it early so you don't know who would end up in hospital.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 6:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I really wanted to declare boosters were the reason for Israel's case drop. But as a professional data analyst, I can only say "not sure, it looks like it really helped." It certainly helped severe cases. I look forward to someone inventing a vaccine that really slows the spread. (I am of the opinion one helps more than others mitigate transmission, but the data isn't 100% clear, so I'll keep my opinion to myself, just note it isn't the one I took).

AA, AS, and B6 are now ordering workers to get vaccinated. Elsewhere, California is going to require that all elementary through high school students get the shots. Just how long are these mandates going to go on for? Let's say this becomes similar to the flu, where you need to get a booster every year. Is everyone really going to be forced to repeatedly do that? Unlike the examples which are frequency cited (measles, polio, etc.) where you get injected a few times and then you're set for life, this would be unprecedented. Furthermore, some members of the scientific community expect COVID to become a much milder illness.

https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-19-like- ... er-1213893

"Covid-19 could soon resemble the common cold as the virus weakens and people’s immunity is boosted by vaccines and exposure, two leading experts have said.

Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, has claimed the coronavirus could become like a cold by as soon as next spring.

Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert, the co-creator of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, has made similar claims and said Covid-19 will become like a cold as it is unlikely to mutate into a dangerous variant.

Speaking to a Royal Society of Medicine webinar last night, she said that viruses tend to become weaker as they spread."
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:48 pm

Aesma wrote:
Toenga wrote:
Aesma wrote:
In France this is mandatory. All unvaccinated healthcare workers are either on leave, vacation, or already fired. So far the healthcare system is coping (but the COVID wave is low).

About the Merck drug, I'm reading the US government ordered it for $700 for a 5-day course, I have my doubts it will be used outside the US at that price.

Compared to even just one day in hospital it seems very reasonably priced.


Except the idea is to give it early so you don't know who would end up in hospital.

This is used at exposure?!? What an expensive way to avoid two $3 AZ jabs?!? :boggled"

https://nowthisnews.com/news/pfizer-tes ... e-medicine

errr... I'm not thinking this will help many. And it is a new experimental medication versus a vaccine given to billions... Hmmm... :scratchchin:

Yes, it probably pays off per my back of the envelope spreadsheet, but far more expensive than a vaccine for less effectiveness.

Lightsaber
 
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cjg225
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:18 pm

lightsaber wrote:
This is used at exposure?!? What an expensive way to avoid two $3 AZ jabs?!? :boggled"

https://nowthisnews.com/news/pfizer-tes ... e-medicine

errr... I'm not thinking this will help many. And it is a new experimental medication versus a vaccine given to billions... Hmmm... :scratchchin:

Yes, it probably pays off per my back of the envelope spreadsheet, but far more expensive than a vaccine for less effectiveness.

Lightsaber

You are aware of the fact that people still get COVID19 after being vaccinated, right? And those break-through cases can end up in the hospital? And die?

You're comparing apples to oranges.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 11:04 pm

If it was cheap then you would give it to every person traced to someone infected. But since it's expensive it will probably be only given to the not vaccinated, or the high risk vaccinated.

I find the "common cold" comments quite odd coming from the UK where the pandemic isn't exactly under control. And the country that has given us the alpha variant, then the delta variant through India, neither of which I would call "less dangerous" than the initial virus !

I certainly hope it will happen though, and I also don't think at this stage having more doses especially for children/the young seems reasonable, but we'll see. If the impact of the virus becomes similar as the flu, with the same kind of people vaccinating, then that would be OK (especially if it displaces the flu somewhat, so you don't get a total of twice the usual flu deaths).
 
Toenga
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Oct 02, 2021 11:57 pm

Aesma wrote:
If it was cheap then you would give it to every person traced to someone infected. But since it's expensive it will probably be only given to the not vaccinated, or the high risk vaccinated.


I certainly hope it will happen though, and I also don't think at this stage having more doses especially for children/the young seems reasonable, but we'll see. If the impact of the virus becomes similar as the flu, with the same kind of people vaccinating, then that would be OK (especially if it displaces the flu somewhat, so you don't get a total of twice the usual flu deaths).


I think there should be a heirarchy of responses to each individual infection.

The least expensive being the most effective.

1/Vaccination in conjunction with basic public health measures such as masks and frequent hand washing, and good ventilation of interior spaces.

2/ Anti viral drugs for breakthrough infections and for thos unable to be vaccinated, or refuseniks

3/Intensive care in hospitals.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Oct 03, 2021 1:24 am

cjg225 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This is used at exposure?!? What an expensive way to avoid two $3 AZ jabs?!? :boggled"

https://nowthisnews.com/news/pfizer-tes ... e-medicine

errr... I'm not thinking this will help many. And it is a new experimental medication versus a vaccine given to billions... Hmmm... :scratchchin:

Yes, it probably pays off per my back of the envelope spreadsheet, but far more expensive than a vaccine for less effectiveness.

Lightsaber

You are aware of the fact that people still get COVID19 after being vaccinated, right? And those break-through cases can end up in the hospital? And die?

You're comparing apples to oranges.

My understanding is this is given well before the hospital.

Yes, I'm aware of breakthrough infections. It is one reason I am an advocate of booster vaccinations and for vaccines to be developed for variants.

But it is the cost/benefit I question. At $700/exposure, I question the benefit. If it were administered later, once someone is sick, in particular the vulnerable, I would understand. If I misread the link on applicability, please correct me. This is for close contacts, also a study for ill people:
https://nowthisnews.com/amphtml/news/pf ... e-medicine

Don't get me wrong, for a nursing home this might save many lives. I just know more than a few vaccine hesitant who consider this another reason not to vaccinate.

Lightsaber
 
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cjg225
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:47 am

lightsaber wrote:
My understanding is this is given well before the hospital.

Yes, I'm aware of breakthrough infections. It is one reason I am an advocate of booster vaccinations and for vaccines to be developed for variants.

But it is the cost/benefit I question. At $700/exposure, I question the benefit. If it were administered later, once someone is sick, in particular the vulnerable, I would understand. If I misread the link on applicability, please correct me. This is for close contacts, also a study for ill people:
https://nowthisnews.com/amphtml/news/pf ... e-medicine

Don't get me wrong, for a nursing home this might save many lives. I just know more than a few vaccine hesitant who consider this another reason not to vaccinate.

Lightsaber

This is given to keep you from going into the hospital in the first place. As soon as you test positive, you start taking this like you would Tamiflu.

Yeah, it might cause some folks to use this as an excuse to not vaccinate, but, face it, they weren't going to in the first place. And for those who did get vaccinated, it's an extra level of safety to keep from getting seriously sick or even dying because the vaccination certainly isn't going to be a perfect protection.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:04 pm

Aesma wrote:
If it was cheap then you would give it to every person traced to someone infected. But since it's expensive it will probably be only given to the not vaccinated, or the high risk vaccinated.

I find the "common cold" comments quite odd coming from the UK where the pandemic isn't exactly under control. And the country that has given us the alpha variant, then the delta variant through India, neither of which I would call "less dangerous" than the initial virus !

I certainly hope it will happen though, and I also don't think at this stage having more doses especially for children/the young seems reasonable, but we'll see. If the impact of the virus becomes similar as the flu, with the same kind of people vaccinating, then that would be OK (especially if it displaces the flu somewhat, so you don't get a total of twice the usual flu deaths).


Most pathogens that caused previous pandemics are still around today. We call the Spanish flu the flu today and the H1N1 strain comes around every now and then with the last resurgence being the 2009 Swine flu.

Once a large portion of people are exposed they will have some degree of immunity to the virus and that same virus will be mild because the body has seen it before and will kill it off before it gets to the areas of the body that damage can be seriously done. Covid is novel which means it can run rampant on the body before the immune system realizes its there and once it does it can easily handle the virus. Often the severe illness is caused by cytokine storms which is the immune system being too good and damaging healthy tissue and not the virus itself.

This is not a superbug like HIV which can mutate and evade an immune response on a regular basis.

Covid remains and there will be some unlucky people that will die from it but the common cold and the flu have some degree of mortality and it is accepted as a part of life.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:21 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I'm not sure if it is the booster, or enough kids being vaccinated, but israel's case rate is plummeting.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Prior peak was over 1250 cases per million, now at 453 cases per million and dropping fast (see above link)

They note 255,444 12-15 year olds have 2 doses, 331,538 have received 1st dose. The article notes only 12 of those 255,444 has the heart inflammation. I suspect, but obviously cannot prove that the virus might contribute (I currently have heart inflammation from the virus, not the vaccine as the inflammation happened 4 months after vaccine when I *know* I was exposed to the virus 4 and 6 days before the start of the issue. No other symptoms at all.).
https://theworldnews.net/il-news/only-1 ... -in-israel

Israel now at 64% two doses+, 70% of the population has had one dose:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Considering how well Spain is doing, this could be as simple as getting enough doses. Except, the UK isn't doing as well for cases. So the question becomes, is there a vaccine level high enough to mitigate spread or is this a mix of vaccinations with exposure with the vulnerable population exposed.

I really wanted to declare boosters were the reason for Israel's case drop. But as a professional data analyst, I can only say "not sure, it looks like it really helped." It certainly helped severe cases. I look forward to someone inventing a vaccine that really slows the spread. (I am of the opinion one helps more than others mitigate transmission, but the data isn't 100% clear, so I'll keep my opinion to myself, just note it isn't the one I took).

Lightsaber


For whatever reason viral infections come in waves and Israel and the US seem to be on the decline. This occurred last summer when there was no vaccines and even in the late winter of 2021 when vaccination was just beginning. Give it two months and another wave will begin I predict.

We saw this in the Spanish flu and with this pandemic the waves come and go and it eventually becomes a seasonal or flat illness where there is a cold and flu season in temperate climates and a flat endemic infection level in warmer climates.

Regarding stopping transmission its very hard with a virus that starts in the upper respiratory tract which doesn't have the level of blood flow to stop replication. When the virus progresses to the lower respiratory system it is stopped almost immediately (the upper respiratory tract is not critical when it comes to life and death). Also a vaccine given to the deltoid is not going to train the immune cells of the upper respiratory tract to respond effectively.

I do wonder if a nasal spray vaccines will have an effect on transmission if its ever developed.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:02 am

StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm not sure if it is the booster, or enough kids being vaccinated, but israel's case rate is plummeting.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Prior peak was over 1250 cases per million, now at 453 cases per million and dropping fast (see above link)

They note 255,444 12-15 year olds have 2 doses, 331,538 have received 1st dose. The article notes only 12 of those 255,444 has the heart inflammation. I suspect, but obviously cannot prove that the virus might contribute (I currently have heart inflammation from the virus, not the vaccine as the inflammation happened 4 months after vaccine when I *know* I was exposed to the virus 4 and 6 days before the start of the issue. No other symptoms at all.).
https://theworldnews.net/il-news/only-1 ... -in-israel

Israel now at 64% two doses+, 70% of the population has had one dose:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Considering how well Spain is doing, this could be as simple as getting enough doses. Except, the UK isn't doing as well for cases. So the question becomes, is there a vaccine level high enough to mitigate spread or is this a mix of vaccinations with exposure with the vulnerable population exposed.

I really wanted to declare boosters were the reason for Israel's case drop. But as a professional data analyst, I can only say "not sure, it looks like it really helped." It certainly helped severe cases. I look forward to someone inventing a vaccine that really slows the spread. (I am of the opinion one helps more than others mitigate transmission, but the data isn't 100% clear, so I'll keep my opinion to myself, just note it isn't the one I took).

Lightsaber


For whatever reason viral infections come in waves and Israel and the US seem to be on the decline. This occurred last summer when there was no vaccines and even in the late winter of 2021 when vaccination was just beginning. Give it two months and another wave will begin I predict.

We saw this in the Spanish flu and with this pandemic the waves come and go and it eventually becomes a seasonal or flat illness where there is a cold and flu season in temperate climates and a flat endemic infection level in warmer climates.

Regarding stopping transmission its very hard with a virus that starts in the upper respiratory tract which doesn't have the level of blood flow to stop replication. When the virus progresses to the lower respiratory system it is stopped almost immediately (the upper respiratory tract is not critical when it comes to life and death). Also a vaccine given to the deltoid is not going to train the immune cells of the upper respiratory tract to respond effectively.

I do wonder if a nasal spray vaccines will have an effect on transmission if its ever developed.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2

I thought novel coronavirus mainly affect lower respiratory track?
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Oct 04, 2021 6:39 am

c933103 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm not sure if it is the booster, or enough kids being vaccinated, but israel's case rate is plummeting.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Prior peak was over 1250 cases per million, now at 453 cases per million and dropping fast (see above link)

They note 255,444 12-15 year olds have 2 doses, 331,538 have received 1st dose. The article notes only 12 of those 255,444 has the heart inflammation. I suspect, but obviously cannot prove that the virus might contribute (I currently have heart inflammation from the virus, not the vaccine as the inflammation happened 4 months after vaccine when I *know* I was exposed to the virus 4 and 6 days before the start of the issue. No other symptoms at all.).
https://theworldnews.net/il-news/only-1 ... -in-israel

Israel now at 64% two doses+, 70% of the population has had one dose:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Considering how well Spain is doing, this could be as simple as getting enough doses. Except, the UK isn't doing as well for cases. So the question becomes, is there a vaccine level high enough to mitigate spread or is this a mix of vaccinations with exposure with the vulnerable population exposed.

I really wanted to declare boosters were the reason for Israel's case drop. But as a professional data analyst, I can only say "not sure, it looks like it really helped." It certainly helped severe cases. I look forward to someone inventing a vaccine that really slows the spread. (I am of the opinion one helps more than others mitigate transmission, but the data isn't 100% clear, so I'll keep my opinion to myself, just note it isn't the one I took).

Lightsaber


For whatever reason viral infections come in waves and Israel and the US seem to be on the decline. This occurred last summer when there was no vaccines and even in the late winter of 2021 when vaccination was just beginning. Give it two months and another wave will begin I predict.

We saw this in the Spanish flu and with this pandemic the waves come and go and it eventually becomes a seasonal or flat illness where there is a cold and flu season in temperate climates and a flat endemic infection level in warmer climates.

Regarding stopping transmission its very hard with a virus that starts in the upper respiratory tract which doesn't have the level of blood flow to stop replication. When the virus progresses to the lower respiratory system it is stopped almost immediately (the upper respiratory tract is not critical when it comes to life and death). Also a vaccine given to the deltoid is not going to train the immune cells of the upper respiratory tract to respond effectively.

I do wonder if a nasal spray vaccines will have an effect on transmission if its ever developed.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2

I thought novel coronavirus mainly affect lower respiratory track?


It's destructive in the lower respiratory tract where it can inflame the lungs and cause pneumonia and can also disrupt the cells responsible for gas exchange and possibly enter the heart and progress though the entire body.

However the viral replication started in the upper respiratory tract, your mouth, nasal cavity upper trachea then progresses downward. I bet most people who got covid thought they were getting a cold until the virus extended to the point where normal colds and flus (due to some immunity from past infections) would be attacked and you would be fine. Covid evades the immune system much longer causing far more systemic damage for some and not everyone.

If you have had a covid test they swab your nose and not biopsy your lungs, they know if you have it even if really sick its going to be found in your upper respiratory tract.

Also while the respiratory tract (especially the upper tract) are essentially external tissue exposed to the elements so the direct blood flow is minimized. That is where your antibodies and T-cells hang out.

I bet nearly everyone who has had Covid19
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:24 am

cjg225 wrote:
You are aware of the fact that people still get COVID19 after being vaccinated, right? And those break-through cases can end up in the hospital? And die?


I believe that the number of breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalisation in the UK is very small although 2/3 of the population is fully vaccinated and that the number of breathrough deaths is tiny. I think that the ~30K new cases a day occur disproportionally in the unvaccinated. I have requested data on this under our Freedom of Information Act and when I receive it, I will post it.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
errr... I'm not thinking this will help many. And it is a new experimental medication versus a vaccine given to billions... Hmmm... :scratchchin:

Yes, it probably pays off per my back of the envelope spreadsheet, but far more expensive than a vaccine for less effectiveness.

Lightsaber


Vaccines play a part in ensuring that people don't get very sick. Also breakthrough cases are quite high (if testing is high) I have observed the Ontario number is about 15%-25% of the total case number are people fully vaccinated.

If you have an antiviral that will stop a severe case once someone feels sick (and we can confirm its a covid case) then you write them a prescription for it and have them take the course of the medication immediately. I can almost assure for most people who won't take the vaccine will take the anti-viral if a doctor orders it. From the onset of symptoms severe outcomes take 8-10 days to manifest so you get the antiviral in the early stages to help with the fight. As already said if someone has the flu, we do the same with Tamiflu.

I remember some time ago on 60 minutes an ICU physician was asked. What would you prefer, a vaccine or a treatment? The doctor said a treatment.

If this works enough to stop hospitals from being overrun, we can drop restrictions and if this can be distributed globally then we can end this pandemic.
Last edited by StarAC17 on Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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cjg225
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:32 pm

art wrote:
I believe that the number of breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalisation in the UK is very small although 2/3 of the population is fully vaccinated and that the number of breathrough deaths is tiny. I think that the ~30K new cases a day occur disproportionally in the unvaccinated. I have requested data on this under our Freedom of Information Act and when I receive it, I will post it.

Isn't that wonderful. So this shouldn't be needed much.

"much" being the operative word.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:52 pm

AstraZeneca is moving towards asking the FDA for approval for their COVID antibody treatment:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... t-n1280847

AstraZeneca, the drugmaker that developed one of the first Covid-19 vaccines, has asked the Food and Drug Administration to authorize the emergency use of a first-of-a-kind antibody treatment to prevent the disease.

The Anglo-Swedish company said Tuesday that the treatment, known as AZD7442, would be the first long-acting antibody combination to receive an emergency authorization for COVID-19 prevention. If authorized, the drug would likely be limited to people with compromised immune systems who don't get sufficient protection from vaccination.


This is the first antibody treatment that is designed to prevent COVID in the first place after exposure, instead of being used to just head off severe symptoms. It is based off of synthetic versions of two antibodies that are produced by the body when exposed to COVID.

Late stage human trials by AstraZeneca is showing a 77% effectiveness at reducing the risk of symptomatic infection. It is also a long lasting formulation, designed to boost immunity for up to one year, compared with existing treatments that offer a month or two of protection.

Another tool in the toolbox, but like with other antibody treatments, likely to be expensive and hard to administer.
 
Toenga
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:13 am

So time and medical science is continuing to deliver more and more measures to reduce transmission, and or reduce the consequences of being infected.

Public Health measures such as contact tracing and placing infected people in isolation such as already employed for diseases such as measles, plus more mask wearing seem to be our main transmission preventative measures that will endure until perhaps the virus mutates into a less deadly strain. Added to this is probably a requirement to upgrade ventilation requirements for indoor spaces.

Vaccines will be the prime method of both reducing transmission and reducing the consequences of infection, We can expect these only to get better and be available to a wider range of people including infants.

And now a new crop of antiviral drugs will shortly be available to treat the unvaccinated for whatever reason, or those with severe breakthrough infections.

Also for a lot of us our hospitals and their staffing levels need upgrading to provide more medical infectious critical care capacity.
So provided we accept these medical interventions, and implement the public health measures our covid risks should start to decline at an increasing pace.

We just need to stay as safe as we can in the meantime while our various communities impliment these measures.

As one suffering at the moment in lockdown I cannot wait. But lockdowns while being brutal have served us incredibly well here until something better has come along and we have had time to put it in place. NZ population 5.2 million has only just had it's 2nd delta covid death. Today 80% of over 11s have had their first dose and 50% now fully vaccinated. And as all our vaccine supply constraints are now behind us, they are encouraging people to reduce the gap between 1st and second doses from six weeks to closer to the three week minimum in our all Pfizer vaccine campaign.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:35 am

cjg225 wrote:
Merck needed a win after going 0-3 on their first three attempts at getting into the COVID game. It'll be interesting to see what demand is really like for this. I wonder how it'll be identified, prescribed, and administered reliably in the time frame needed since I guess it needs to be started quite early in the COVID contraction cycle to be effective.


This medication is exciting and as long as it is started in the viral phase of the disease, which I would take to be the first seven days after symptom onset, should work well.

It targets an enzyme called RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), which is the enzyme that all RNA viruses use to replicate. The key here is that there is no RdRp in a healthy cell, so this enzyme highlights something that the virus needs to do (replicate RNA) that the cell doesn't. When we see something like that, we have found an attractive drug target because it will block viral replication while leaving healthy cells unharmed. But more importantly, this should work on every RNA virus. So when the next pandemic RNA virus comes along (and it will likely be an RNA virus because they mutate much more quickly than DNA viruses), we will have a tool in our shed for it.
 
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cjg225
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:43 am

DocLightning wrote:
This medication is exciting and as long as it is started in the viral phase of the disease, which I would take to be the first seven days after symptom onset, should work well.

It targets an enzyme called RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), which is the enzyme that all RNA viruses use to replicate. The key here is that there is no RdRp in a healthy cell, so this enzyme highlights something that the virus needs to do (replicate RNA) that the cell doesn't. When we see something like that, we have found an attractive drug target because it will block viral replication while leaving healthy cells unharmed. But more importantly, this should work on every RNA virus. So when the next pandemic RNA virus comes along (and it will likely be an RNA virus because they mutate much more quickly than DNA viruses), we will have a tool in our shed for it.

Yeah, it sounds like from some articles I've read that Merck is hoping this becomes a general product within their pipeline as opposed to something just for COVID19. With how much flak they are taking for overreliance on Keytruda, that'd be huge for them.

7 days or so would be longer than I'd thought before. I'd thought it was more like 3-5 days, but I'd take your stance on it way before whatever my faulty or fake memory may be. Much more reasonable then to get someone identified and get them on molnupiravir in time for it to be effective, then.
 
extender
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:44 am

DocLightning wrote:
This medication is exciting and as long as it is started in the viral phase of the disease, which I would take to be the first seven days after symptom onset, should work well.

It targets an enzyme called RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), which is the enzyme that all RNA viruses use to replicate. The key here is that there is no RdRp in a healthy cell, so this enzyme highlights something that the virus needs to do (replicate RNA) that the cell doesn't. When we see something like that, we have found an attractive drug target because it will block viral replication while leaving healthy cells unharmed. But more importantly, this should work on every RNA virus. So when the next pandemic RNA virus comes along (and it will likely be an RNA virus because they mutate much more quickly than DNA viruses), we will have a tool in our shed for it.


I appreciate your insight on this subject. Are there any negatives, side effects?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:31 pm

DocLightning wrote:
cjg225 wrote:
Merck needed a win after going 0-3 on their first three attempts at getting into the COVID game. It'll be interesting to see what demand is really like for this. I wonder how it'll be identified, prescribed, and administered reliably in the time frame needed since I guess it needs to be started quite early in the COVID contraction cycle to be effective.


This medication is exciting and as long as it is started in the viral phase of the disease, which I would take to be the first seven days after symptom onset, should work well.

It targets an enzyme called RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), which is the enzyme that all RNA viruses use to replicate. The key here is that there is no RdRp in a healthy cell, so this enzyme highlights something that the virus needs to do (replicate RNA) that the cell doesn't. When we see something like that, we have found an attractive drug target because it will block viral replication while leaving healthy cells unharmed. But more importantly, this should work on every RNA virus. So when the next pandemic RNA virus comes along (and it will likely be an RNA virus because they mutate much more quickly than DNA viruses), we will have a tool in our shed for it.



Doc,
The efficacy they say is best when given before 5 days out. Is it just that the viral load at that point is already beating out what this pill can do, or will it need another treatment that is out there to help it catch up?

I see this drug as a big win as science is finally bringing the vaccines and drugs we need to win against Covid to the market. Hopefully we are finally at the end of this pandemic. My son gets his 2nd shot this week.
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:59 pm

casinterest wrote:
Hopefully we are finally at the end of this pandemic.


An optimist if ever I read one! I don't subscribe to pessimism as a cause but... with an awful lot of people in the rich countries sceptical of vaccination against this virus (and possibly just as many or more in poor countries with limited capacity to administer vaccinations), why should this pandemic be nearing its end? I think the most likely way it will end will be if a more contagious variant than delta - but far less damaging to infectees - ousts delta. A pandemic of a relatively harmless but highly contagious version of COVID-19 is just what the doctor would prescribe, I think.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:06 pm

art wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Hopefully we are finally at the end of this pandemic.


An optimist if ever I read one! I don't subscribe to pessimism as a cause but... with an awful lot of people in the rich countries sceptical of vaccination against this virus (and possibly just as many or more in poor countries with limited capacity to administer vaccinations), why should this pandemic be nearing its end? I think the most likely way it will end will be if a more contagious variant than delta - but far less damaging to infectees - ousts delta. A pandemic of arelatively harmless but highly contagious version of COVID-19 is just what the doctor would prescribe, I think.



I don't see this as optimism. The pandemic as we knew it (highly contagious and deadly) will end for those that can avail themselves of the new options available 0The vaccines are available. Treatments are starting to catch up. Rich country or poor country, there are now ways out of this.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:26 pm

casinterest wrote:
art wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Hopefully we are finally at the end of this pandemic.


An optimist if ever I read one! I don't subscribe to pessimism as a cause but... with an awful lot of people in the rich countries sceptical of vaccination against this virus (and possibly just as many or more in poor countries with limited capacity to administer vaccinations), why should this pandemic be nearing its end? I think the most likely way it will end will be if a more contagious variant than delta - but far less damaging to infectees - ousts delta. A pandemic of arelatively harmless but highly contagious version of COVID-19 is just what the doctor would prescribe, I think.



I don't see this as optimism. The pandemic as we knew it (highly contagious and deadly) will end for those that can avail themselves of the new options available 0The vaccines are available. Treatments are starting to catch up. Rich country or poor country, there are now ways out of this.

We will get out of this if the vaccination rate can be high enough and enough take boosters, preferably a developed variant booster. In this thread we've discussed nasal vaccines to reduce transmission. This is a pretty convincing link:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8099545/

“This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” – Winston Churchill (November 10, 1942)

When we have vaccines age 6 months+ and a nasal booster, that will be the beginning of the end, in my opinion.

At least the Israeli booster campaign looks extreamly promising. Alas, only coercion seems to work (revoking Green Pass to increase compliance):

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... BR~ISR~USA

Lightsaber
 
737307
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:32 pm

DocLightning wrote:
cjg225 wrote:
Merck needed a win after going 0-3 on their first three attempts at getting into the COVID game. It'll be interesting to see what demand is really like for this. I wonder how it'll be identified, prescribed, and administered reliably in the time frame needed since I guess it needs to be started quite early in the COVID contraction cycle to be effective.


This medication is exciting and as long as it is started in the viral phase of the disease, which I would take to be the first seven days after symptom onset, should work well.

It targets an enzyme called RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), which is the enzyme that all RNA viruses use to replicate. The key here is that there is no RdRp in a healthy cell, so this enzyme highlights something that the virus needs to do (replicate RNA) that the cell doesn't. When we see something like that, we have found an attractive drug target because it will block viral replication while leaving healthy cells unharmed. But more importantly, this should work on every RNA virus. So when the next pandemic RNA virus comes along (and it will likely be an RNA virus because they mutate much more quickly than DNA viruses), we will have a tool in our shed for it.


I am amazed by the speed of its development. Or is this normal in bioscience these days?
 
737307
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:33 pm

casinterest wrote:
art wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Hopefully we are finally at the end of this pandemic.


An optimist if ever I read one! I don't subscribe to pessimism as a cause but... with an awful lot of people in the rich countries sceptical of vaccination against this virus (and possibly just as many or more in poor countries with limited capacity to administer vaccinations), why should this pandemic be nearing its end? I think the most likely way it will end will be if a more contagious variant than delta - but far less damaging to infectees - ousts delta. A pandemic of arelatively harmless but highly contagious version of COVID-19 is just what the doctor would prescribe, I think.



I don't see this as optimism. The pandemic as we knew it (highly contagious and deadly) will end for those that can avail themselves of the new options available 0The vaccines are available. Treatments are starting to catch up. Rich country or poor country, there are now ways out of this.


Darwinism?
 
Chemist
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:51 pm

art wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Hopefully we are finally at the end of this pandemic.


An optimist if ever I read one! I don't subscribe to pessimism as a cause but... with an awful lot of people in the rich countries sceptical of vaccination against this virus (and possibly just as many or more in poor countries with limited capacity to administer vaccinations), why should this pandemic be nearing its end? I think the most likely way it will end will be if a more contagious variant than delta - but far less damaging to infectees - ousts delta. A pandemic of a relatively harmless but highly contagious version of COVID-19 is just what the doctor would prescribe, I think.


I wonder if we could genetically engineer a high transmissable variant of the virus that causes few health effects? Sort of like how we release millions of sterile mosquitos to cut down mosquito populations?

I imagine that would be a loaded and risky activity, however.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:55 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
cjg225 wrote:
Merck needed a win after going 0-3 on their first three attempts at getting into the COVID game. It'll be interesting to see what demand is really like for this. I wonder how it'll be identified, prescribed, and administered reliably in the time frame needed since I guess it needs to be started quite early in the COVID contraction cycle to be effective.


This medication is exciting and as long as it is started in the viral phase of the disease, which I would take to be the first seven days after symptom onset, should work well.

It targets an enzyme called RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), which is the enzyme that all RNA viruses use to replicate. The key here is that there is no RdRp in a healthy cell, so this enzyme highlights something that the virus needs to do (replicate RNA) that the cell doesn't. When we see something like that, we have found an attractive drug target because it will block viral replication while leaving healthy cells unharmed. But more importantly, this should work on every RNA virus. So when the next pandemic RNA virus comes along (and it will likely be an RNA virus because they mutate much more quickly than DNA viruses), we will have a tool in our shed for it.


I am amazed by the speed of its development. Or is this normal in bioscience these days?

When you have tons of cash being thrown about for research by various governments, all the scientists around the world working together, plus volunteers banging down your door to be part of research studies, things tend to go fast.
 
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KBUF
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:47 pm

Canada has announced a vaccine mandate for all air and rail travel, effective at the end of the month:

Starting Oct. 30, the new policy requires vaccinations for anyone 12 years or older wishing to board a plane or a train in Canada, barring narrow medical exceptions.

This is not specific to federal employees — it includes all passengers flying on domestic, transborder or international flights departing from airports in Canada, and rail passengers on VIA Rail and Rocky Mountaineer trains. Marine passengers on non-essential passenger vessels, like cruise ships or voyages extending 24 hours or more, must also be vaccinated.


https://globalnews.ca/news/8247329/covi ... ighlights/

A necessary step, and one that I’m certainly all for. The US and other countries without such a mandate absolutely need to follow suit.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:39 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
I am amazed by the speed of its development. Or is this normal in bioscience these days?

It's definitely not normal for Merck. One of the most conservative players in big pharma. Legitimately surprised they're ahead on this.

But, sounds like Pfizer and Roche aren't really that far behind, and apparently got a markedly later start than Merck. Will be interesting to see how far behind they end up being. And Merck isn't out of the woods yet; lots of positive press, but they still actually need to get EUA approval.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:43 am

cjg225 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
I am amazed by the speed of its development. Or is this normal in bioscience these days?

It's definitely not normal for Merck. One of the most conservative players in big pharma. Legitimately surprised they're ahead on this.

But, sounds like Pfizer and Roche aren't really that far behind, and apparently got a markedly later start than Merck. Will be interesting to see how far behind they end up being. And Merck isn't out of the woods yet; lots of positive press, but they still actually need to get EUA approval.

From what I've read, Merck's Molnupiravir was already under development pre-pandemic as an anti-viral drug for a variety of other viral diseases. It got repurposed as an anti-COVID treatment during the pandemic.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:50 am

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
art wrote:

An optimist if ever I read one! I don't subscribe to pessimism as a cause but... with an awful lot of people in the rich countries sceptical of vaccination against this virus (and possibly just as many or more in poor countries with limited capacity to administer vaccinations), why should this pandemic be nearing its end? I think the most likely way it will end will be if a more contagious variant than delta - but far less damaging to infectees - ousts delta. A pandemic of arelatively harmless but highly contagious version of COVID-19 is just what the doctor would prescribe, I think.



I don't see this as optimism. The pandemic as we knew it (highly contagious and deadly) will end for those that can avail themselves of the new options available 0The vaccines are available. Treatments are starting to catch up. Rich country or poor country, there are now ways out of this.

We will get out of this if the vaccination rate can be high enough and enough take boosters, preferably a developed variant booster. In this thread we've discussed nasal vaccines to reduce transmission. This is a pretty convincing link:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8099545/

“This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” – Winston Churchill (November 10, 1942)

When we have vaccines age 6 months+ and a nasal booster, that will be the beginning of the end, in my opinion.

At least the Israeli booster campaign looks extreamly promising. Alas, only coercion seems to work (revoking Green Pass to increase compliance):

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... BR~ISR~USA

Lightsaber



We have the tools present now. That is what we wanted at the beginning of the pandemic. In a few more months more pieces will be in place, but the vaccines are the most important.



Looks like the booster is definitely needed for the Pfizer shot to keep the virus at bay, but it would seem most will still stay out of the hospital for awhile.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/06/health/p ... index.html
NT162b2-induced protection against infection builds rapidly after the first dose, peaks in the first month after the second dose, and then gradually wanes in subsequent months," Laith Abu-Raddad of Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar and colleagues wrote. "The waning appears to accelerate after the fourth month, to reach a low level of approximately 20% in subsequent months," they added.
Nonetheless, protection against hospitalization and death stayed at above 90%, they said.
 
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cjg225
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:12 am

ThePointblank wrote:
From what I've read, Merck's Molnupiravir was already under development pre-pandemic as an anti-viral drug for a variety of other viral diseases. It got repurposed as an anti-COVID treatment during the pandemic.

Not by Merck, as I understand it, but, yes, it was. Still, to get from development to commercialization (for all intents and purposes) this fast is like going to Ludicrous Speed for Merck (and, to be fair, most every pharma company before the last 20 months).
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:43 pm

Chemist wrote:
art wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Hopefully we are finally at the end of this pandemic.


An optimist if ever I read one! I don't subscribe to pessimism as a cause but... with an awful lot of people in the rich countries sceptical of vaccination against this virus (and possibly just as many or more in poor countries with limited capacity to administer vaccinations), why should this pandemic be nearing its end? I think the most likely way it will end will be if a more contagious variant than delta - but far less damaging to infectees - ousts delta. A pandemic of a relatively harmless but highly contagious version of COVID-19 is just what the doctor would prescribe, I think.


I wonder if we could genetically engineer a high transmissable variant of the virus that causes few health effects? Sort of like how we release millions of sterile mosquitos to cut down mosquito populations?

I imagine that would be a loaded and risky activity, however.


So Gain-of-Function research?

There is still a real possibility that doing this with bat coronaviruses got us Covid19 as it very well could have been released from the Wuhan lab where there were doing research that does exactly that. Lets not play god with these viruses.

The theory is being pushed by a lot of people we consider wackos but it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that this was the initial infection and the Wuhan market was a super spreader event.

https://theintercept.com/2021/09/23/cor ... ant-darpa/
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:21 pm

cjg225 wrote:
But, sounds like Pfizer and Roche aren't really that far behind, and apparently got a markedly later start than Merck
extender wrote:
I appreciate your insight on this subject. Are there any negatives, side effects?


I haven't seen the full data, but as it is given orally, stomach upset will most certainly be a potential side-effect (even if the medication doesn't cause it, COVID does, so it will be listed as a side-effect). Merck obviously didn't find anything too ominous. Remdesivir seems to be very well-tolerated so I expect this will be, too.

StarAC17 wrote:
There is still a real possibility that doing this with bat coronaviruses got us Covid19


*SIGH* Possibility, yes. Realistic probability, no. And I promise I know way more about this than you do.

Chemist wrote:
I wonder if we could genetically engineer a high transmissable variant of the virus that causes few health effects? Sort of like how we release millions of sterile mosquitos to cut down mosquito populations?

I imagine that would be a loaded and risky activity, however.


Nobody wants to take that risk. However, India's CODAGENIX has come up with a version that is "deoptimized." You may recall that the genetic code contains 64 codons of three bases each that code for 20 amino acids (and three STOP codons). In theory, all the codons for, say, leucine are equivalent, but in reality, each species "prefers" a specific codon for each amino acid by having more tRNAs around that match that specific codon than the others. This can make a major difference in the amount of protein produced and one of the changes made for the mRNA and AdV vaccines was that the codons in the spike gene they carry were optimized for human cells.

Image
Credit: National Human Genome Research Institute, part of the NIH

Well, CODAGENIX made an entire SARS-CoV-2 virus that is DEoptimized, meaning that in each position where they could choose more than one codon, they chose the worst possible codon, which means that their virus produces proteins very slowly. This means that their engineered virus replicates very slowly and so it is very unlikely to cause disease or even transmission, but it does lead to immunity. This product is going to be used as a nasal vaccine that they hope will provide sterilizing immunity with a single dose.

cjg225 wrote:
But, sounds like Pfizer and Roche aren't really that far behind, and apparently got a markedly later start than Merck.


Their candidate is an inhibitor of the 3C-like protease (Mpro or 3CLpro). The first protein made by the virus is a single giant protein made by a gene that is larger than most RNA viruses. This protein is then clipped into individual proteins that do essential work preparing the cell for infection by two protease enzymes called 3CLpro and PLpro (3C-like protease, named after similarity to the 3C protease in picornaviruses like polio and rhinovirus, and papain-like protease named after a similarity to the protease papain found in pineapple).

They designed a molecule that specifically inhibits 3CLpro. While I think this is a promising approach, it will probably have a narrow spectrum and almost certainly won't be effective on any virus that isn't a betacoronavirus. This isn't necessarily a show-stopper. The anti-flu drugs baloxavir and oseltamivir only work on flu and they are widely-used. Pfizer and Novartis are banking on CoV2 becoming a seasonal virus like influenza.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Oct 07, 2021 7:48 pm

DocLightning wrote:

StarAC17 wrote:
There is still a real possibility that doing this with bat coronaviruses got us Covid19


*SIGH* Possibility, yes. Realistic probability, no. And I promise I know way more about this than you do.



Oh I don't doubt that at all and I agree that nature can inflict very dangerous and contagious pathogens to humanity at essentially any point. Epidemiologists and doctors like yourself know this.

However you answered the point later on. It' very risky to mess with an already dangerous virus to try an attenuate it to a moderate level of virulence as that can easily backfire.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:56 pm

The vaccine mandate finally hit work (government contractors, Fortune 500 aerospace company). Everyone must have 1st jab in October or earlier, 2nd by November 24th (all government contractors without a disability or approved religious exemption). A few sites that have a business need for more close contact have earlier deadlines.

5th (maybe sixth, I lost count) Free vaccine clinic coming on site with a follow up clinic for jab #2 in November.

Local pharmacies are not busy either.

Lightsaber
 
Newark727
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:04 am

DocLightning wrote:

Nobody wants to take that risk. However, India's CODAGENIX has come up with a version that is "deoptimized." You may recall that the genetic code contains 64 codons of three bases each that code for 20 amino acids (and three STOP codons). In theory, all the codons for, say, leucine are equivalent, but in reality, each species "prefers" a specific codon for each amino acid by having more tRNAs around that match that specific codon than the others. This can make a major difference in the amount of protein produced and one of the changes made for the mRNA and AdV vaccines was that the codons in the spike gene they carry were optimized for human cells.

Well, CODAGENIX made an entire SARS-CoV-2 virus that is DEoptimized, meaning that in each position where they could choose more than one codon, they chose the worst possible codon, which means that their virus produces proteins very slowly. This means that their engineered virus replicates very slowly and so it is very unlikely to cause disease or even transmission, but it does lead to immunity. This product is going to be used as a nasal vaccine that they hope will provide sterilizing immunity with a single dose.



So if I'm understanding this correctly, "optimization" depends on relative abundance of tRNAs? Curious how that's controlled biologically.
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:53 am

UK has announced an influenza vaccination programme aiming at 40 million recipients (nearly 2/3 of the population). I read on the ticker at the bottom of the screen (BBC TV news) that this would be combined with a COVID-19 booster. Not sure if that will be for all jabs or just for people selected for a 3rd COVID-19 booster. Makes sense to deliver combined jabs, doesn't it? I wonder also if some people who declined COVID-19 vaccination will accept it when combined with an influenza vaccination.

One of the issues raised was that of people contracting both COVID-19 and influenza and the effect that would have. Is there any data available on the severity of illness this combination of infections produces?
Last edited by art on Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:58 am

Pfizer formally asked for review of the vaccine for 5-11 year olds. Hopefully this is available soon. I've read estimates of 3 weeks (Halloween) to as late as Thanksgiving. My child's jr. high had had numerous outbreaks in the too young to vaccinate 6th graders. Somehow the elementary school has fewer issues.

https://apnews.com/b9a0e105be709a4d7a1c7d604e8d05f2
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