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cpd
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 1:00 am

DocLightning wrote:
Yes, and people wearing seatbelts die. I'm getting tired of posting the same studies over and over again showing the faster fall-off for vaccinated breakthrough cases
.........

So the vaccines aren't perfect, but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good.


All we can do is try and be careful where we go and how we go about our daily duties. Vaccines are a very important piece of the puzzle, but it's also important to use all the other measures available even if some of them might be annoying like masks, social distancing. Then other things like check-in apps on phones are really simple so if there are cases at a venue then it's possible for contact tracing to occur and contacts can be alerted quickly and they can follow the necessary isolation/testing procedures, possibly limiting the ability of outbreaks to occur.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:21 am

In the above conversation, I am a huge fan of the swiss cheese model. Vaccines are only one part. For example, I go into work, but try to minimize as despite the mandates, we have a large unvaccinated workforce in part (in California,).

I am also a proponent that vaccines slow the spread. This link says 71% reduction in spread:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... sion-rates

I believe people who are equally sick will spread the virus the same, vaccinated are just far less likely to be equally sick.

Other, UK boosting all who had vaccines > 6 months ago.

https://www.manxradio.com/news/uk-news/ ... pointment/

This brings up the question of how often further boosters. I'm throwing a tiny birthday party for my child, all adults boosted, all eligible kids vaccinated, masks required, and everyone has a recent flu jab. Ghad, I wouldn't have asked 2 years ago...

Lightsaber
 
Kent350787
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 6:46 am

lightsaber wrote:
....Other, UK boosting all who had vaccines > 6 months ago.

https://www.manxradio.com/news/uk-news/ ... pointment/

This brings up the question of how often further boosters. I'm throwing a tiny birthday party for my child, all adults boosted, all eligible kids vaccinated, masks required, and everyone has a recent flu jab. Ghad, I wouldn't have asked 2 years ago...

Lightsaber


Australia is also offering boosters for those vaccinated > 6 months ago NSW announcement here https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-01/ ... /100584452

NSW has also passed 79% total population fully vaccinated, before vaccination for 5-11yo commences. 16+yo is reported as 87.8% today, 12-15yo as 62%
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 11:33 am

Good to see booster campaigns going.

Novavax receives emergency authorization in Indonesia:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1030920783

Novavax recently also completed rolling submissions for authorization of the Novavax vaccine with regulatory agencies in the United Kingdom, European Union, Canada and Australia.

They are also in the WHO process (so is Sputnik V and Covaxin by Bharat Biotech)
But this doesn't say when production will be enough to matter. We are at a stage of this pandemic where quantity is needed. I hope Novavax can deliver.

Lightsaber
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 11:34 am

I think we'll find that interest will wane rather rapidly if we intend to embark on an endless cycle of booster shots.

I'm all for boosters for 'at risk' groups such as the elderly or immunodeficient as they can mean life or death to them, but asking the rest of the population to follow suit will only lead to more resentment and confusion.
The goal is for us to live with covid, not to perpetually and vainly try to make it go away... It never will.
We cannot and will not be able to maintain an elevated antibody level forever, nor should it be the point for most of us. At some point, the rest of the immune system has to take over.

Then there's the dubious ethical position of giving people a third shot when a good chunk of the World population hasn't even had their first one yet...
If we want to limit mutation by limiting spread, we should seek to vaccinate everyone on the planet first. Whatever vaccine-resistant strain appears in unvaccinated nations will eventually spread across the globe and affect everyone regardless of whether they have 7 shots of vaccine or none.

In any case, I expect very low uptake.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 2:22 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Then there's the dubious ethical position of giving people a third shot when a good chunk of the World population hasn't even had their first one yet...
If we want to limit mutation by limiting spread, we should seek to vaccinate everyone on the planet first. Whatever vaccine-resistant strain appears in unvaccinated nations will eventually spread across the globe and affect everyone regardless of whether they have 7 shots of vaccine or none.

In any case, I expect very low uptake.

Are we not exporting vaccines? I happen to visit multiple relatives and friends who are vulnerable and interact with children too young to be vaccinated. Your choice of words implies a strong position I do not take. We instead should increase production.

There is more of an ethical position on those not vaccinating which I believe enhances the chance of mutation.

We can agree the world needs to be vaccinated.

The countries who are, for the most part producing the vaccines are now using 12% of the administered doses.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... =~OWID_WRL

My pediatrician notes he hasn't yet seen a juvenile coronavirus case where the parent wasn't the one to infect the child. So for my child's birthday, only boosted adults are allowed.

Vaccine administration has gone down to 26 million doses per day.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Africa's problem is now a syringe shortage anyway, not a dose shortage:
https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-vacci ... 3525?amp=1

https://www.observer.ug/news/headlines/ ... =component

I have no idea why they are using one syringe different from western standard syringes. But since we do not use the syringe they need, what is the ethical problem? (Since manufacturing lines are setup for each vendors product, switching will not be quick.)

My relative's hospital is once again the epicenter of the start of the next wave. Since so many won't (adults) or cannot (young kids), this leaves only boosters.

We need to help the world, but your words are too absolute. The vaccine producing countries have a responsibility to the world, but first to their citizens.

I personally believe if the vaccinated countries do not boost, we will develop vaccine resistant strains. The amazing thing is 7.07 billion doses have been administered. I see no way to vaccinate the world before the next wave that has obviously taken hold. The only ready group willing to add jabs to slow the spread in Western countries is the already vaccinated. How would you slow the spread? People are done with lockdowns and masks. As much as I like the Swiss Cheese model, this wave is coming.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 2:26 pm

Belfast looking into vaccine centers as healthcare overwhelmed:
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/n ... 05499.html


He said: “This past weekend we have heard of a worsening crisis across various health trust areas with some patients even being cautioned not to present unless faced with a life-threatening situation.

“The warnings given were stark and alarming and all of us can imagine the stress and fear this crisis will be causing.

“The staffing crisis all over the health and social care system is causing havoc and we are hearing this in these stark statements from various trusts.

“The GPs crisis continues, with patients still unable to see their GPs. We are also hearing of further reductions in GP out of hours services in some areas.


The doctors are so fatigued. Please get a booster when able for the sake of medical staff.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 2:38 pm

Data from Israel, comparing 1:1 (precisely, as a study few nations can perform) comparing fully vaccinated vs. boosted

Boosted were:
93% less hospitalized
92% less severe
81% less likely to die

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/protect ... 54791.html

Unfortunately, we have two issues to solve:
1. Older, fatter countries need boosters to reduce hospitalizations and death.
2. The world needs more vaccine.

We still need to vaccinate more people and I am a huge advocate of child's vaccines, but we also need to help the less fortunate.

Thankfully, there are 50 million J&J doses ready once they pass quality control:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... urces.html

UK just donated 20 million doses of Janssen (J&J):
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk ... NewsSearch

Lightsaber
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:00 pm

Currently 75% of the population of England has received a first dose while 68% has received a second. I wonder, might this be because the 13% of the population that has been infected and has subsequently recovered is not being offered 2 doses of vaccine? Or might it be that people are declining a second dose of vaccine? Is there a large difference between partial and full vaccination in other countries?

lightsaber wrote:
My pediatrician notes he hasn't yet seen a juvenile coronavirus case where the parent wasn't the one to infect the child. So for my child's birthday, only boosted adults are allowed.


Curiously, I heard yesterday (don't recall the source) that last week 5% of younger schoolchilden in UK were COVID-19 positive. That does not seem to square with what your pediatrician noted.

Of course, the UK and the US are in different situations regarding vaccination of people under 12 years of age. I think we are just starting to vaccinate that cohort in the UK. .
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Then there's the dubious ethical position of giving people a third shot when a good chunk of the World population hasn't even had their first one yet...
If we want to limit mutation by limiting spread, we should seek to vaccinate everyone on the planet first. Whatever vaccine-resistant strain appears in unvaccinated nations will eventually spread across the globe and affect everyone regardless of whether they have 7 shots of vaccine or none.

In any case, I expect very low uptake.

Are we not exporting vaccines? I happen to visit multiple relatives and friends who are vulnerable and interact with children too young to be vaccinated. Your choice of words implies a strong position I do not take. We instead should increase production.



One way to increase production is to temporarily waive the patent protections for the vaccines so they can be manufactured generically at more plants around the world. As usual though money talks.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/pfizer-mo ... k-n1282454
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:18 pm

I found the answer on the syringe shortage, WHO and UNICEF require a certain style of syringe. The supply chain issue isn't helping:
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/health/ ... accination

StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Then there's the dubious ethical position of giving people a third shot when a good chunk of the World population hasn't even had their first one yet...
If we want to limit mutation by limiting spread, we should seek to vaccinate everyone on the planet first. Whatever vaccine-resistant strain appears in unvaccinated nations will eventually spread across the globe and affect everyone regardless of whether they have 7 shots of vaccine or none.

In any case, I expect very low uptake.

Are we not exporting vaccines? I happen to visit multiple relatives and friends who are vulnerable and interact with children too young to be vaccinated. Your choice of words implies a strong position I do not take. We instead should increase production.





One way to increase production is to temporarily waive the patent protections for the vaccines so they can be manufactured generically at more plants around the world. As usual though money talks.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/pfizer-mo ... k-n1282454

The US is diverting 33 million doses of Moderna to Africa:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/33 ... NewsSearch

Moderna has already waved protection during the crisis. Moderna has had to help Samsung get their plant in line, which is now producing millions (2.4 million to be immediately distributed). The issue is, I speculate, their staff is also working to gave the new lines productive, so Moderna is focusing on their own production (as they should).
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/co ... cs-2268867

With The Oxford AstraZenica vaccine available without constraints and Chinese and Russian vaccines being cheaply licensed, how exactly would patent waivers help? I am confused as it takes an army to setup production and the smaller companies that have IP on making single use bags or cryogenic filters are both incapable of sharing their tricks and unlikely.

I honestly don't see how ending patent protection will speed up short term production when there are 4 other good options readily available.

Lightsaber
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Are we not exporting vaccines? I happen to visit multiple relatives and friends who are vulnerable and interact with children too young to be vaccinated. Your choice of words implies a strong position I do not take. We instead should increase production.

There is more of an ethical position on those not vaccinating which I believe enhances the chance of mutation.

We can agree the world needs to be vaccinated.

The countries who are, for the most part producing the vaccines are now using 12% of the administered doses.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... =~OWID_WRL

My pediatrician notes he hasn't yet seen a juvenile coronavirus case where the parent wasn't the one to infect the child. So for my child's birthday, only boosted adults are allowed.

Vaccine administration has gone down to 26 million doses per day.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Africa's problem is now a syringe shortage anyway, not a dose shortage:
https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-vacci ... 3525?amp=1

https://www.observer.ug/news/headlines/ ... =component

I have no idea why they are using one syringe different from western standard syringes. But since we do not use the syringe they need, what is the ethical problem? (Since manufacturing lines are setup for each vendors product, switching will not be quick.)

My relative's hospital is once again the epicenter of the start of the next wave. Since so many won't (adults) or cannot (young kids), this leaves only boosters.

We need to help the world, but your words are too absolute. The vaccine producing countries have a responsibility to the world, but first to their citizens.

I personally believe if the vaccinated countries do not boost, we will develop vaccine resistant strains. The amazing thing is 7.07 billion doses have been administered. I see no way to vaccinate the world before the next wave that has obviously taken hold. The only ready group willing to add jabs to slow the spread in Western countries is the already vaccinated. How would you slow the spread? People are done with lockdowns and masks. As much as I like the Swiss Cheese model, this wave is coming.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Lightsaber


I can understand a nation looking after it own citizens before the rest of the World. That's exactly what leaders are supposed to do in fact. But we have gotten to a point where our nations are running out of arms to inject while less than half of the World (meaning much less than half when excluding wealthy nations) is fully vaccinated.
I understand that the logistics are not as simple as diverting everything to other nations and that there are many other choke points with Worldwide delivery, but this is getting somewhat obscene.

If a vaccine-resistant strain is going to appear, it will most likely appear where few people are vaccinated, and if it does, a further dose of the same vaccine is not likely to help much.
In that case, why not wait for an updated version of it instead, like for the flu? Or better yet, a flu+Covid combined shot?

I'm happy to take a booster when one is available to me. I fact, I will probably have to for my job anyway. But when we can't even get enough people to vaccinate in the first place, pushing yet another dose seems a bit pointless.
Again, those at risk should very much take it for their own sake, but what I'm thinking is that you'll have a hard time keeping the population engaged by constantly pushing for more doses of the same thing, especially if they have to be spaced just a few months apart. It's a PR thing. People were told that vaccines were the solution to all the chaos Covid threw our World into so the uptake was relatively good. Now if you start telling the same people that actually, the vaccine doesn't really really work and that they're going to have to get vaccinated every few months, they will just stop seeing the point.
People get tired of the scare-mongering, regardless of whether it is warranted or not.... human nature.

All I'm saying is that I'm expecting low voluntary uptake and mandates for a third shot would be very badly received by the population. Especially this soon after the first ones, which themselves already caused a bit of social and political stir.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 01, 2021 5:57 pm

So far as I know no large amount of vaccines are being tossed because they time expired. I also have not read anything saying the US is stockpiling vaccines beyond what is needed to keep deliveries going about as fast as they are used. Also, no vaccine makers here have eased up on production. Corrections invited.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 02, 2021 2:28 am

Francoflier wrote:
In that case, why not wait for an updated version of it instead, like for the flu? Or better yet, a flu+Covid combined shot?

That one is easy, all the vaccines have declining immunity. Any variant booster would be too late to matter. Israel's plummet in cases and more important hospitalizations show the strategy of boosters works.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

Francoflier wrote:
But when we can't even get enough people to vaccinate in the first place, pushing yet another dose seems a bit pointless.

The people who don't want it have dug in. Everything has been tried. If they want a vaccine, they can walk into any pharmacy and get it and that's been true since late April.

Look at my link, the next wave is coming. Choices have consequences.

Lightsaber
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 02, 2021 9:25 pm

The US CDC Vaccine advisors have approved the Pfizer Covid Vaccine for kids 5-11

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/cdc-co ... index.html
The question now goes to CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, who signaled in opening remarks to the committee’s meeting that she strongly supports vaccinating children in this age group to protect them against Covid-19 and its complications, and to help school get back to normal.

Vaccination could begin as soon as Walensky issues her decision.


it would seem the official go ahead decision will be tonight or tomorrow at the latest.
This step will enable the opening of restrictions that have been in place for the better part of 2 years in most locations.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:32 am

lightsaber wrote:
Good to see booster campaigns going.

Novavax receives emergency authorization in Indonesia:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1030920783

Novavax recently also completed rolling submissions for authorization of the Novavax vaccine with regulatory agencies in the United Kingdom, European Union, Canada and Australia.

They are also in the WHO process (so is Sputnik V and Covaxin by Bharat Biotech)
But this doesn't say when production will be enough to matter. We are at a stage of this pandemic where quantity is needed. I hope Novavax can deliver.

Lightsaber

Earlier this year I keep reading Korean news on how they signed production contract with Novavax but haven't really heard much about them since
 
sccutler
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:24 am

Francoflier wrote:
...
The goal is for us to live with covid, not to perpetually and vainly try to make it go away... It never will.
...


Why this essential, fundamental reality is not being properly-reported, I cannot fathom. For the vast majority of the population, the calculus is easy - get vaccinated, and eliminate the vast majority of really bad outcomes.

I lost two friends in one week to COVID a couple of months ago (after having had only one death of anyone I know in 18 months); both had eschewed the vaccination, both had elevated risk factors, both likely would be alive but for their stubbornness on this subject. As a result, in my frustration, I consulted with a close friend who is a preeminent physician, and the most important thing he had to say is this: "We need to accept and acknowledge that everyone is going to get COVID - each and all of us - and the vaccines are the key to likely avoiding hospitalization and avoiding death.

Vaccinations, not masks, are the enduring answer.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:03 am

It is sad we cannot produce a sterile vaccine against Covid19. Because of that, we will have to accept we will all get the virus multiple times.

But we are not ready. It is my opinion the next wave will again overwhelm hospitals. To slow the spread we need more vaccinations and the younger child's vaccine. The 5-11 was just signed of (final step CDC director signature):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

But that isn't enough.
1. We need enough vaccine to let the world have the opportunity to be vaccinated.
2. We need a younger child vaccine. By this six month +.
3. We need enough booster doses to slow the spread.

My friends and relatives working the hospitals are exhausted. One relative's hospital the doctors finally laid down the law. After nearly two years a more fixed schedule. Stop adapting to a preventable crisis. They will ration how many coronaviruses patients get:
1. Into the ICU
2. Into the coronavirus ward
3. Into a leased hotel that has oxygen and nurses bringing around medicine, but get out your apps and order your own food and clean your own room.
4. How many coronaviruses patients in the ER

All others take an ambulance, tramahawk, or Air National guard flight to regions with hospital capacity.

Or be sent home with oxygen and medicines. I personally know six people this happened to, it sucks as you really must get family or friends to help you.

The system cannot keep asking so much from the medical community. Thankfully, vaccines work really well.

This will mean boosters regularly. This will mean masks and social distancing during surges. I personally know two people who cannot vaccinate due to medical auto-immune disorders. I know two people who had a parasite infection that causes such extreme pain (when vaccinated) they have been advised to skip this round of boosters; advised by the same doctor who advised me to get a booster early to protect them.

I already posted links in this thread that the next wave has started. Judging from what I hear from medical friends, it looks like the #1 complaint in the next wave will be receiving coronavirus care out of state as the system is preparing to moderate local workloads on the hospitals.

I have no pity as for the next few days I must deal with a child sent home from school with a sore throat. The pediatrician has already determined it is some other minor virus, but now to get multiple negative coronavirus tests to get this *fully vaccinated* child back into school and scramble to get my younger one vaccinated so the "scare" associated with having two children sent home doesn't happen. Ugh. I swear, most people do not understand the real hassle is trying to adapt in a world where kids cannot yet be fully vaccinated. (I shall try tomorrow.)

Somewhere in there perform my job... /rant

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Good to see booster campaigns going.

Novavax receives emergency authorization in Indonesia:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1030920783

Novavax recently also completed rolling submissions for authorization of the Novavax vaccine with regulatory agencies in the United Kingdom, European Union, Canada and Australia.

They are also in the WHO process (so is Sputnik V and Covaxin by Bharat Biotech)
But this doesn't say when production will be enough to matter. We are at a stage of this pandemic where quantity is needed. I hope Novavax can deliver.

Lightsaber

Earlier this year I keep reading Korean news on how they signed production contract with Novavax but haven't really heard much about them since

I read about the talks to:
https://news.yahoo.com/south-korea-says ... 05579.html

I have no idea on current status. I assume talks went stale and Korea will focus on other vaccine production (Moderna).

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:56 pm

Oramed starting oral vaccine trials in South Africa.
https://nocamels.com/2021/11/israel-ora ... th-africa/

This really excites me as this is exactly what is needed for all the health clinics in villages and for reluctant. Come in for a sprained ankle? Here is your free vaccine...

Trials in Israel after a bit more review.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:41 pm

Interesting facts on the 5-11 age vaccines
For every 1 million (10^6) children vaccinated:
58,000 fewer infections
241 fewer hospitalizations
77 fewer in the ICU
and 1 less death

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

I am of the opinion the greatest benefits are returning to a more normal life (psychological) and reduced spread of the disease, in particular read either Docs or my prior links on vaccines do reduce the spread.

Alas, my bureaucratic state doesn't have them available yet. Some other states are more on the ball:
https://dailyjournal.net/2021/11/03/cov ... ay-at-ims/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid ... NewsSearch

“For most children the risk of getting COVID-19 is far greater than any potential risk of the vaccine,” Ransone said. “For most children the recommendation is going to be to get the vaccine.”

Lightsaber
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Interesting facts on the 5-11 age vaccines
For every 1 million (10^6) children vaccinated:
1 less death

Mmm... so if I'm 5-11 and get vaccinated, my chances of dying drop by a millionth? Not an easy sell.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:41 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Interesting facts on the 5-11 age vaccines
For every 1 million (10^6) children vaccinated:
1 less death

Mmm... so if I'm 5-11 and get vaccinated, my chances of dying drop by a millionth? Not an easy sell.


It's an easy sell. Less infections and less spread mean we get rid of the problems with letting go of mask mandates
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:44 am

casinterest wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Interesting facts on the 5-11 age vaccines
For every 1 million (10^6) children vaccinated:
1 less death

Mmm... so if I'm 5-11 and get vaccinated, my chances of dying drop by a millionth? Not an easy sell.


It's an easy sell. Less infections and less spread mean we get rid of the problems with letting go of mask mandates

Expanding on the easy sell:

My prior link noted deaths from vaccine miocarditis: zero. Fast recovery. I have virus induces miocarditis and they have figured out the problem (damaged nerve to heart, enough links in thread how virus damages nerves). I get to have surgery to kill the now defective nerve. No one wants that for a child.

Also recall, no one can visit a Covid19 patient in the hospital.

Parents have to work from home if a child gets sick or an unvaccinated child is exposed. Why continue that hassle?

The only way to return to normal is a high vaccination rate. The next wave is obviously starting. Be prepared, or not.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases

Seriously, I know a group all exposed. Moderna vaccinated, no symptoms, never +ve. J&J +ve and a few days of mild flu like symptoms. The unvaccinated couple? 7 weeks of miserable flu symptoms and long haul symptoms.

There is now a trend to hospitalize fewer people. You get oxygen, medicines, but otherwise you must care for yourself as the medical staff are just to exhausted. Who wants their child to go through weeks of that? Who has the time to take weeks of of work (where the caregiving parent must risk infection.

I ask anyone not vaccinating their child to really listen and to a parent who nursed a child through Covid19. It is not fun for weeks.

Lightsaber
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:44 am

casinterest wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Interesting facts on the 5-11 age vaccines
For every 1 million (10^6) children vaccinated:
1 less death

Mmm... so if I'm 5-11 and get vaccinated, my chances of dying drop by a millionth? Not an easy sell.


It's an easy sell. Less infections and less spread mean we get rid of the problems with letting go of mask mandates


What I suggest is that the motivation for vaccinating children should not be to stop kids dying of COVID-19 but to stop them getting the more vulnerable (ie non-children) to die of it. In other words if kids are not threatened they should be vaccinated for the benefit of others. As I mentioned it was reported that last week in the UK the level of COVID-19 infection in UK schoolchildren was 5%. I imagine that makes them a massive source of infection to the more vulnerable, particularly older members of their co-habiting family group. To me this turns the normal maxim of parents protecting their children on its head.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:24 pm

art wrote:
casinterest wrote:
art wrote:
Mmm... so if I'm 5-11 and get vaccinated, my chances of dying drop by a millionth? Not an easy sell.


It's an easy sell. Less infections and less spread mean we get rid of the problems with letting go of mask mandates


What I suggest is that the motivation for vaccinating children should not be to stop kids dying of COVID-19 but to stop them getting the more vulnerable (ie non-children) to die of it. In other words if kids are not threatened they should be vaccinated for the benefit of others. As I mentioned it was reported that last week in the UK the level of COVID-19 infection in UK schoolchildren was 5%. I imagine that makes them a massive source of infection to the more vulnerable, particularly older members of their co-habiting family group. To me this turns the normal maxim of parents protecting their children on its head.

And yet I know of a daughter's classmate who died. We haven't had the flu present during previous coronavirus waves, it is returning this year and very nasty if you catch both; thankfully this year's flu shot seems to be unusually effective.

One county's trends (my relative works in the coronavirus ward of this county). 11% of the cases are in the age range of interest. 17% of the cases are in the 12-17 adolescents. The young and invulnerable (19-29) are the worst at 24% (this is a very low vaccinated county in Colorado):
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1460947&p=23005831

I agree the main benefit is protecting the spread,but I would argue protecting younger siblings matters more. Talk to a parent who has had to nurse a coronavirus sick child, it is not fun. Now imagine doing that for multiple children.

Lightsaber
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 4:02 pm

Good news, First pill to treat Covid gets approval in UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899

"In clinical trials the pill, originally developed to treat flu, cut the risk of hospitalisation or death by about half. The UK has agreed to purchase 480,000 courses with the first deliveries expected in November."
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 5:16 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
Good news, First pill to treat Covid gets approval in UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899

"In clinical trials the pill, originally developed to treat flu, cut the risk of hospitalisation or death by about half. The UK has agreed to purchase 480,000 courses with the first deliveries expected in November."

$700 per treatment course (per link)? Wow. Worth it to not die, but two doses of AZ to a hundred people has a better return in my opinion. Oh, I'd take it, but I'll still follow the full Swiss cheese model.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 5:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:
$700 per treatment course (per link)? Wow. Worth it to not die, but two doses of AZ to a hundred people has a better return in my opinion. Oh, I'd take it, but I'll still follow the full Swiss cheese model.

Lightsaber

I feel compelled to reply to this again even though we had this same exchange 2 weeks ago: you can still get COVID despite being vaccinated.

And it's highly amusing how much people latch onto the pricing that keeps getting reported. It is woefully misunderstood.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 5:40 pm

cjg225 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
$700 per treatment course (per link)? Wow. Worth it to not die, but two doses of AZ to a hundred people has a better return in my opinion. Oh, I'd take it, but I'll still follow the full Swiss cheese model.

Lightsaber

I feel compelled to reply to this again even though we had this same exchange 2 weeks ago: you can still get COVID despite being vaccinated.

And it's highly amusing how much people latch onto the pricing that keeps getting reported. It is woefully misunderstood.



you can catch covid, but as DocLightning has posted. You are less infectious sooner, and less likely to have severe enough symptoms to seek out treatment for this pill in this case.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:19 pm

cjg225 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
$700 per treatment course (per link)? Wow. Worth it to not die, but two doses of AZ to a hundred people has a better return in my opinion. Oh, I'd take it, but I'll still follow the full Swiss cheese model.

Lightsaber

I feel compelled to reply to this again even though we had this same exchange 2 weeks ago: you can still get COVID despite being vaccinated.

And it's highly amusing how much people latch onto the pricing that keeps getting reported. It is woefully misunderstood.

I'm well aware one can get Covid19, my relatives hospital has gone into crisis mode as so many staff had breakthrough infections, vast majority from unvaccinated children, all minor infections BTW. They just cannot go into work which put the hospital in crisis today. But we know hospitals in low vaccinated areas routinely go into crisis. e.g., Idaho:

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/ ... eeks-has-/

Look at the hospital capacity infographic. My relatives hospital is the transfer hospital, unfortunately if they are going into crisis, that means the county which unfortunately means Western Colorado and Eastern Utah:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Vaccines have an effectiveness to prevent hospitalizations of 91.9% to 95.3%.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm

So for $700 one course has about a half a chance of preventing hospitalizations. Nice when available.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:56 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I'm well aware one can get Covid19, my relatives hospital has gone into crisis mode as so many staff had breakthrough infections, vast majority from unvaccinated children, all minor infections BTW. They just cannot go into work which put the hospital in crisis today. But we know hospitals in low vaccinated areas routinely go into crisis. e.g., Idaho:

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/ ... eeks-has-/

Look at the hospital capacity infographic. My relatives hospital is the transfer hospital, unfortunately if they are going into crisis, that means the county which unfortunately means Western Colorado and Eastern Utah:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Vaccines have an effectiveness to prevent hospitalizations of 91.9% to 95.3%.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm

So for $700 one course has about a half a chance of preventing hospitalizations. Nice when available.

Lightsaber

The point is you need both.

And you keep harping about the price tag for some reason, as if you or anyone who is to take this is actually paying for it.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:15 am

cjg225 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm well aware one can get Covid19, my relatives hospital has gone into crisis mode as so many staff had breakthrough infections, vast majority from unvaccinated children, all minor infections BTW. They just cannot go into work which put the hospital in crisis today. But we know hospitals in low vaccinated areas routinely go into crisis. e.g., Idaho:

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/ ... eeks-has-/

Look at the hospital capacity infographic. My relatives hospital is the transfer hospital, unfortunately if they are going into crisis, that means the county which unfortunately means Western Colorado and Eastern Utah:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Vaccines have an effectiveness to prevent hospitalizations of 91.9% to 95.3%.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm

So for $700 one course has about a half a chance of preventing hospitalizations. Nice when available.

Lightsaber

The point is you need both.

And you keep harping about the price tag for some reason, as if you or anyone who is to take this is actually paying for it.



But we all do. The Vaccine is cheaper. The pill is not. Insurance costs go up due to poor decisions.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:37 am

cjg225 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm well aware one can get Covid19, my relatives hospital has gone into crisis mode as so many staff had breakthrough infections, vast majority from unvaccinated children, all minor infections BTW. They just cannot go into work which put the hospital in crisis today. But we know hospitals in low vaccinated areas routinely go into crisis. e.g., Idaho:

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/ ... eeks-has-/

Look at the hospital capacity infographic. My relatives hospital is the transfer hospital, unfortunately if they are going into crisis, that means the county which unfortunately means Western Colorado and Eastern Utah:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Vaccines have an effectiveness to prevent hospitalizations of 91.9% to 95.3%.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm

So for $700 one course has about a half a chance of preventing hospitalizations. Nice when available.

Lightsaber

The point is you need both.

And you keep harping about the price tag for some reason, as if you or anyone who is to take this is actually paying for it.

As a taxpayer, we are paying and as a backup, great. As a first line? Poor economics we eventually have to pay for (e g., more inflation).

Over 90% of the people who will end up needing this medicine, per my estimate, wouldn't have if we had better than a mere 57% fully vaccinated today:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... untry=~USA

I personally know people who won't get vaccinated as they consider this a viable alternative to vaccination. We do need both, but first get over 80% vaccinated.

Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
It looks like the booster surge is already over. We are not vaccinating enough in the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... untry=~USA

Hopefully the just released kids vaccine turns that around.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:12 pm

lightsaber wrote:
cjg225 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm well aware one can get Covid19, my relatives hospital has gone into crisis mode as so many staff had breakthrough infections, vast majority from unvaccinated children, all minor infections BTW. They just cannot go into work which put the hospital in crisis today. But we know hospitals in low vaccinated areas routinely go into crisis. e.g., Idaho:

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/ ... eeks-has-/

Look at the hospital capacity infographic. My relatives hospital is the transfer hospital, unfortunately if they are going into crisis, that means the county which unfortunately means Western Colorado and Eastern Utah:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Vaccines have an effectiveness to prevent hospitalizations of 91.9% to 95.3%.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm

So for $700 one course has about a half a chance of preventing hospitalizations. Nice when available.

Lightsaber

The point is you need both.

And you keep harping about the price tag for some reason, as if you or anyone who is to take this is actually paying for it.

As a taxpayer, we are paying and as a backup, great. As a first line? Poor economics we eventually have to pay for (e g., more inflation).

Over 90% of the people who will end up needing this medicine, per my estimate, wouldn't have if we had better than a mere 57% fully vaccinated today:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... untry=~USA

I personally know people who won't get vaccinated as they consider this a viable alternative to vaccination. We do need both, but first get over 80% vaccinated.

Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
It looks like the booster surge is already over. We are not vaccinating enough in the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... untry=~USA

Hopefully the just released kids vaccine turns that around.


Now we can welcome a pill from Pfizer to the queue, which will provide a cost reducing competitor to Merck's

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/new-co ... /19963539/

On Friday, Pfizer released preliminary results of its study of 775 adults. Patients who received the company's drug along with another antiviral shortly after showing COVID-19 symptoms had an 89% reduction in their combined rate of hospitalization or death after a month, compared to patients taking a dummy pill. Fewer than 1% of patients taking the drug needed to be hospitalized and no one died. In the comparison group, 7% were hospitalized and there were seven deaths.

"We were hoping that we had something extraordinary, but it’s rare that you see great drugs come through with almost 90% efficacy and 100% protection for death,” said Dr. Mikael Dolsten, Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, in an interview.

Study participants were unvaccinated, with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, and were considered high risk for hospitalization due to health problems like obesity, diabetes or heart disease. Treatment began within three to five days of initial symptoms, and lasted for five days. Patients who received the drug earlier showed slightly better results, underscoring the need for speedy testing and treatment.

Pfizer reported few details on side effects but said rates of problems were similar between the groups at about 20%.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 05, 2021 7:26 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
cjg225 wrote:
The point is you need both.

And you keep harping about the price tag for some reason, as if you or anyone who is to take this is actually paying for it.

As a taxpayer, we are paying and as a backup, great. As a first line? Poor economics we eventually have to pay for (e g., more inflation).

Over 90% of the people who will end up needing this medicine, per my estimate, wouldn't have if we had better than a mere 57% fully vaccinated today:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... untry=~USA

I personally know people who won't get vaccinated as they consider this a viable alternative to vaccination. We do need both, but first get over 80% vaccinated.

Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
It looks like the booster surge is already over. We are not vaccinating enough in the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... untry=~USA

Hopefully the just released kids vaccine turns that around.


Now we can welcome a pill from Pfizer to the queue, which will provide a cost reducing competitor to Merck's

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/new-co ... /19963539/

On Friday, Pfizer released preliminary results of its study of 775 adults. Patients who received the company's drug along with another antiviral shortly after showing COVID-19 symptoms had an 89% reduction in their combined rate of hospitalization or death after a month, compared to patients taking a dummy pill. Fewer than 1% of patients taking the drug needed to be hospitalized and no one died. In the comparison group, 7% were hospitalized and there were seven deaths.

"We were hoping that we had something extraordinary, but it’s rare that you see great drugs come through with almost 90% efficacy and 100% protection for death,” said Dr. Mikael Dolsten, Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, in an interview.

Study participants were unvaccinated, with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, and were considered high risk for hospitalization due to health problems like obesity, diabetes or heart disease. Treatment began within three to five days of initial symptoms, and lasted for five days. Patients who received the drug earlier showed slightly better results, underscoring the need for speedy testing and treatment.

Pfizer reported few details on side effects but said rates of problems were similar between the groups at about 20%.

Get the pills to the hospitals now! My relatives hospital is going to surge mode (not a critical patient, no care...), again. Thanksgiving vacation was just cancelled minutes ago. :cry2:

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Notice now basically full?
53% one jab (see above link) isn't slowing this down. For the 3rd wave in a row, Mesa County Colorado is the canary in the coal mine, in my opinion: lots of globetrotters flying into Aspen, Telluride, and MOAB in a low vaccinated region. Yes, the resorts are outside of Mesa county, but they traumahawk their patients there for care.

The next wave isn't just in Europe:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... a~Asia~AUS

Note, my relative's area tend to precede the rest of the nation by 4 to 6 weeks in prior waves.

We needed the 5-11 kids vaccine 2 months ago (the original schedule), in my opinion. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
As a taxpayer, we are paying and as a backup, great. As a first line? Poor economics we eventually have to pay for (e g., more inflation).

Over 90% of the people who will end up needing this medicine, per my estimate, wouldn't have if we had better than a mere 57% fully vaccinated today:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... untry=~USA

I personally know people who won't get vaccinated as they consider this a viable alternative to vaccination. We do need both, but first get over 80% vaccinated.

Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
It looks like the booster surge is already over. We are not vaccinating enough in the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... untry=~USA

Hopefully the just released kids vaccine turns that around.


Now we can welcome a pill from Pfizer to the queue, which will provide a cost reducing competitor to Merck's

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/new-co ... /19963539/

On Friday, Pfizer released preliminary results of its study of 775 adults. Patients who received the company's drug along with another antiviral shortly after showing COVID-19 symptoms had an 89% reduction in their combined rate of hospitalization or death after a month, compared to patients taking a dummy pill. Fewer than 1% of patients taking the drug needed to be hospitalized and no one died. In the comparison group, 7% were hospitalized and there were seven deaths.

"We were hoping that we had something extraordinary, but it’s rare that you see great drugs come through with almost 90% efficacy and 100% protection for death,” said Dr. Mikael Dolsten, Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, in an interview.

Study participants were unvaccinated, with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, and were considered high risk for hospitalization due to health problems like obesity, diabetes or heart disease. Treatment began within three to five days of initial symptoms, and lasted for five days. Patients who received the drug earlier showed slightly better results, underscoring the need for speedy testing and treatment.

Pfizer reported few details on side effects but said rates of problems were similar between the groups at about 20%.

Get the pills to the hospitals now! My relatives hospital is going to surge mode (not a critical patient, no care...), again. Thanksgiving vacation was just cancelled minutes ago. :cry2:

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Notice now basically full?
53% one jab (see above link) isn't slowing this down. For the 3rd wave in a row, Mesa County Colorado is the canary in the coal mine, in my opinion: lots of globetrotters flying into Aspen, Telluride, and MOAB in a low vaccinated region. Yes, the resorts are outside of Mesa county, but they traumahawk their patients there for care.

The next wave isn't just in Europe:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... a~Asia~AUS

Note, my relative's area tend to precede the rest of the nation by 4 to 6 weeks in prior waves.

We needed the 5-11 kids vaccine 2 months ago (the original schedule), in my opinion. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber


In most cases anti-viral drugs have to be taken early in the infection to be effective. You take them to stay out of the hospital not once you are in there. The practice will be, once you test positive vaccinated or not, you get a prescription for the drug.

IIRC most hospitalized patients have cleared the actual Covid virus quite well. Their immune systems have often gone haywire and cytokine storms have damaged a lot of tissue to the point where their lungs and other vascular areas of their body have been damaged.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:30 pm

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/medical/20211105-OYT1T50243/
Japan: Anges give up phase 3 trial of their vaccines as they fails to provide better effect than Pfizer/Moderna. Starting from August, they will try different things like increase dosage, changing the method of injecting vaccine, and such, to first check for safety then check for efficiency. Phase 3 now expected to be 2022 and roll out expected to be 2023.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 07, 2021 8:07 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/medical/20211105-OYT1T50243/
Japan: Anges give up phase 3 trial of their vaccines as they fails to provide better effect than Pfizer/Moderna. Starting from August, they will try different things like increase dosage, changing the method of injecting vaccine, and such, to first check for safety then check for efficiency. Phase 3 now expected to be 2022 and roll out expected to be 2023.


Seems like if it is just as good as Pfizer, why not continue and have another supplier? Unless it's not really stated that its effectiveness is in fact quite a bit worse.
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:54 pm

lightsaber wrote:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

53% one jab (see above link) isn't slowing this down. For the 3rd wave in a row, Mesa County Colorado is the canary in the coal mine, in my opinion: lots of globetrotters flying into Aspen, Telluride, and MOAB in a low vaccinated region. Yes, the resorts are outside of Mesa county, but they traumahawk their patients there for care.

Lightsaber

Clearly where you are (with 53% one jab) vaccination has not been embraced by a large majority of people.

I'm curious about the shortfall between first and second jabs for 2 dose vaccines in the US. Here in England we currently have 75% of the population with 1 jab and 68% with 2. The difference of 6%-7% has remained steady for the last 2 months, which I find strange since first jabs slowed to a crawl over the course of July and stayed at a very low level until a couple of weeks ago. I would have expected total second jabs to have been catching up with total first jabs over that period but they have not. What's the explanation? I would think that people who chose to have the first jab would choose to have the second one, too. Of course some people who receive their first jab are not around for the second (having emigrated, died from some cause) but that cannot account for much of the shortfall. What's the overall position in the US? Similar?
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 07, 2021 11:12 pm

A challenge we are seeing in Australia is that vaccine uptake is pushed along by active outbreaks, and that a % target for reducing restrictions isn't a sufficient prompt.

My state of NSW has and active but improving outbreak and has reached 90% of the 16+ population fully vaxxed, and 12+ population is expected by Wednesday. This translates to pretty much 80% whole population. 12+ is a slowing a little, so school based programs are likely to start soon in lower uptake areas.

Victoria will hit simialr targets in around a fortnight, and also has an active outbreak with cases dropping a little slower than NSW. These two states make up 60% of the national population.

Most other states are only in the 60% fully vaxxed. Western Australia, which includes the most islolated capital city in the world, has set a 95% fully vaxxed target for border reopening. I can travel to Perth Scotland from Sydney Australia with fewer restrictions than for travlling to Perth, WA.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:13 am

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

53% one jab (see above link) isn't slowing this down. For the 3rd wave in a row, Mesa County Colorado is the canary in the coal mine, in my opinion: lots of globetrotters flying into Aspen, Telluride, and MOAB in a low vaccinated region. Yes, the resorts are outside of Mesa county, but they traumahawk their patients there for care.

Lightsaber

Clearly where you are (with 53% one jab) vaccination has not been embraced by a large majority of people.

I'm curious about the shortfall between first and second jabs for 2 dose vaccines in the US. Here in England we currently have 75% of the population with 1 jab and 68% with 2. The difference of 6%-7% has remained steady for the last 2 months, which I find strange since first jabs slowed to a crawl over the course of July and stayed at a very low level until a couple of weeks ago. I would have expected total second jabs to have been catching up with total first jabs over that period but they have not. What's the explanation? I would think that people who chose to have the first jab would choose to have the second one, too. Of course some people who receive their first jab are not around for the second (having emigrated, died from some cause) but that cannot account for much of the shortfall. What's the overall position in the US? Similar?

I cannot say for certain, but one of my friends noted several reasons people are not following up on 2nd jabs:
1. Belief that a Covid19 infection before or after the first jab gives them full immunity.
2. Anti-vax messaging convinced them not to continue.

Oh, my area is 61% vaccinated (total population, the only metric I use, not some ever changing divisor). That isn't enough and booster takeup has been... poor. Feedback shows only a few 5-12 year olds will takeup the vaccine. That unfortunately means an interesting winter is coming.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:24 am

Chemist wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/medical/20211105-OYT1T50243/
Japan: Anges give up phase 3 trial of their vaccines as they fails to provide better effect than Pfizer/Moderna. Starting from August, they will try different things like increase dosage, changing the method of injecting vaccine, and such, to first check for safety then check for efficiency. Phase 3 now expected to be 2022 and roll out expected to be 2023.


Seems like if it is just as good as Pfizer, why not continue and have another supplier? Unless it's not really stated that its effectiveness is in fact quite a bit worse.

Traditional phase 3 tests, which require tens of thousand participants with half of them getting assigned to control group not receiving vaccines, is both resource-intensive, and not-tenable when everyone are being urged to take the currently available vaccines. The alternative is immunobridging which require comparing level of antibody produced by the vaccine, and this vaccine is in the situation that it can trigger cellular immunity but have problem producing sufficient antibody compares to target, and hence cannot be approved immunobridging. It might still be possible to prove its efficiency by traditional phase 3 bridging, but other than aforementioned disadvantage, that would also require vaccine developing company pay a lot to conduct such large scale phase 3 test and end up with worse result, so they would rather try different dosage/injection method/etc to see if they can achieve better result which would also better sell their vaccines.
Japanese government do say from the perspective of ensuring supply security they would likely to speedily approve vaccines even if they are only of the same level and is not superior to Pfizer/Moderna, however those Japanese vaccines in development now cannot reach that yet.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 08, 2021 6:25 pm

c933103 wrote:
Chemist wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/medical/20211105-OYT1T50243/
Japan: Anges give up phase 3 trial of their vaccines as they fails to provide better effect than Pfizer/Moderna. Starting from August, they will try different things like increase dosage, changing the method of injecting vaccine, and such, to first check for safety then check for efficiency. Phase 3 now expected to be 2022 and roll out expected to be 2023.


Seems like if it is just as good as Pfizer, why not continue and have another supplier? Unless it's not really stated that its effectiveness is in fact quite a bit worse.

Traditional phase 3 tests, which require tens of thousand participants with half of them getting assigned to control group not receiving vaccines, is both resource-intensive, and not-tenable when everyone are being urged to take the currently available vaccines. The alternative is immunobridging which require comparing level of antibody produced by the vaccine, and this vaccine is in the situation that it can trigger cellular immunity but have problem producing sufficient antibody compares to target, and hence cannot be approved immunobridging. It might still be possible to prove its efficiency by traditional phase 3 bridging, but other than aforementioned disadvantage, that would also require vaccine developing company pay a lot to conduct such large scale phase 3 test and end up with worse result, so they would rather try different dosage/injection method/etc to see if they can achieve better result which would also better sell their vaccines.
Japanese government do say from the perspective of ensuring supply security they would likely to speedily approve vaccines even if they are only of the same level and is not superior to Pfizer/Moderna, however those Japanese vaccines in development now cannot reach that yet.


Of course with the effectiveness of the current vaccines, exceeding that seems like a very high bar to try and surpass.
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 08, 2021 8:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I cannot say for certain, but one of my friends noted several reasons people are not following up on 2nd jabs:
1. Belief that a Covid19 infection before or after the first jab gives them full immunity.
2. Anti-vax messaging convinced them not to continue.

Lightsaber


2 - while there are some anti-vaxxers in UK, I suspect that few people who chose to have a first jab will have been dissuaded from having a second jab by anti-vax messaging
1- raises an interesting question. To the medics organising vaccination, does infection before or after one dose of vaccine 'count' as a vaccination, whereby a lot of people are not invited to have 2 doses of a 2 dose vaccine? That would help account for 75% in England having had 1 jab while 68% have had 2. About 13% of the population of England has caught and recovered from COVID-19 (according to positive tests rreported).
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:43 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I cannot say for certain, but one of my friends noted several reasons people are not following up on 2nd jabs:
1. Belief that a Covid19 infection before or after the first jab gives them full immunity.
2. Anti-vax messaging convinced them not to continue.

Lightsaber


2 - while there are some anti-vaxxers in UK, I suspect that few people who chose to have a first jab will have been dissuaded from having a second jab by anti-vax messaging
1- raises an interesting question. To the medics organising vaccination, does infection before or after one dose of vaccine 'count' as a vaccination, whereby a lot of people are not invited to have 2 doses of a 2 dose vaccine? That would help account for 75% in England having had 1 jab while 68% have had 2. About 13% of the population of England has caught and recovered from COVID-19 (according to positive tests rreported).

1 There was messaging earlier on if you were infected you didn't need a second dose. I think this is people just moving on with their life.

2. I personally know 5 people where propoganda dissuaded them from dose #2. Fear of miocarditis is to he only reason I understand, but that isn't the main factor with anyone I know. The went from amiable to a vaccine to not wanting it. I do not claim I understand the thought process.

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:48 am

lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I cannot say for certain, but one of my friends noted several reasons people are not following up on 2nd jabs:
1. Belief that a Covid19 infection before or after the first jab gives them full immunity.
2. Anti-vax messaging convinced them not to continue.

Lightsaber


2 - while there are some anti-vaxxers in UK, I suspect that few people who chose to have a first jab will have been dissuaded from having a second jab by anti-vax messaging
1- raises an interesting question. To the medics organising vaccination, does infection before or after one dose of vaccine 'count' as a vaccination, whereby a lot of people are not invited to have 2 doses of a 2 dose vaccine? That would help account for 75% in England having had 1 jab while 68% have had 2. About 13% of the population of England has caught and recovered from COVID-19 (according to positive tests rreported).

1 There was messaging earlier on if you were infected you didn't need a second dose. I think this is people just moving on with their life.

2. I personally know 5 people where propoganda dissuaded them from dose #2. Fear of miocarditis is to he only reason I understand, but that isn't the main factor with anyone I know. The went from amiable to a vaccine to not wanting it. I do not claim I understand the thought process.

Lightsaber

I have heard people saying "Why take a vaccine now when they need to be taken every 6 months into the future" citing HK government expert comment on SinoVac
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:51 am

I have came across a post on Chinese language Reddit, reposted from China's weibo, which claim they have a patient injected with CanSinoBio vaccines recently, with lung infection indicated on CT scan. The doctor proposed using antibiotics to treat lung infection, but the place of vaccination\ claim using antibiotics will nullify the effect of CanSinoBio vaccines and thus the proposed treatment is not being permitted.

CanSinoBio is supposed to be a adenovirus viral vector vaccine so how will antibiotics nullify their efficiencies?
 
Chemist
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:54 am

A good friend from my HIgh School moved to Nashville in May. I asked her if she was vaccinated and she said to me on Facebook messenger "no, I am not and do not intend to be vaccinated. I don't want to put that in my body. I guess I'm just cautious."
I replied with some facts about risks and that the risk of the vaccine doesn't need to be weighed against no vaccine, but against COVID.
You guessed it, she got COVID and was in the hospital on her birthday on November 4th. Passed this morning. Leaves husband, four grown kids, and some grandchildren.
First person I've known personally that has died of COVID.

Mods: Feel free to delete if this isn't appropriate.
 
Cardude2
Posts: 510
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:59 am

Chemist wrote:
A good friend from my HIgh School moved to Nashville in May. I asked her if she was vaccinated and she said to me on Facebook messenger "no, I am not and do not intend to be vaccinated. I don't want to put that in my body. I guess I'm just cautious."
I replied with some facts about risks and that the risk of the vaccine doesn't need to be weighed against no vaccine, but against COVID.
You guessed it, she got COVID and was in the hospital on her birthday on November 4th. Passed this morning. Leaves husband, four grown kids, and some grandchildren.
First person I've known personally that has died of COVID.

Mods: Feel free to delete if this isn't appropriate.


That’s very saddening, I’ve heard of similar instances happening. Even an entire family https://www.newsweek.com/mans-entire-fa ... ed-1617994

Edit: I know realize this is a bit of an intensities post
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:19 pm

Fascinating graphic on vaccine effectiveness that visually tells us how well vaccines are working:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Image
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Since it's mainly older people who end up at the hospital for COVID, their absolute numbers can sometimes give off the impression that vaccines are not working as well as they are.


The difference between unvaccinated 12-17 years olds being unvaccinated the most likely to have coronavirus and the vaccinated the least likely is striking. I suspect the 65-79 vaccinated being lower is social distancing. The hospitalization rates are definitely age dependent (see the link). I like to do simulations, if we could cut in half the unvaccinated and increase booster acceptance, my model shows a nice drop in cases and thus hospitalizations. What my model shows is that well vaccinated areas are protected while poorly vaccinated areas will have cases just spread as their will be multiple exposure (much higher chance of infection in unvaccinated or vaccinated due to more rapid spread).

Lightaber
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