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yonahleung
Posts: 118
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:45 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:

2 - while there are some anti-vaxxers in UK, I suspect that few people who chose to have a first jab will have been dissuaded from having a second jab by anti-vax messaging
1- raises an interesting question. To the medics organising vaccination, does infection before or after one dose of vaccine 'count' as a vaccination, whereby a lot of people are not invited to have 2 doses of a 2 dose vaccine? That would help account for 75% in England having had 1 jab while 68% have had 2. About 13% of the population of England has caught and recovered from COVID-19 (according to positive tests rreported).

1 There was messaging earlier on if you were infected you didn't need a second dose. I think this is people just moving on with their life.

2. I personally know 5 people where propoganda dissuaded them from dose #2. Fear of miocarditis is to he only reason I understand, but that isn't the main factor with anyone I know. The went from amiable to a vaccine to not wanting it. I do not claim I understand the thought process.

Lightsaber

I have heard people saying "Why take a vaccine now when they need to be taken every 6 months into the future" citing HK government expert comment on SinoVac

I strongly agree with this sentiment. I feel like a fool now having double vaccinated in Hong Kong since April and there has been zero local Covid cases since then and the 21 day quarantine means that there is absolutely no hope of travel outside Hong Kong.

Why vaccinate if you will never encounter the virus? For those who live in a Covid-zero country like Hong Kong, not vaccinating is the only reasonable choice. You are just having taking a vaccine (which involve a minor risk) to guard against a risk that does not exist in your country.

For those people living in Covid-zero countries the only sensible thing to do is really to wait until they open up before vaccinating. I will definitely not take my booster and advise everyone I know in Hong Kong against taking one until the border opens up.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 14404
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:15 pm

yonahleung wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
1 There was messaging earlier on if you were infected you didn't need a second dose. I think this is people just moving on with their life.

2. I personally know 5 people where propoganda dissuaded them from dose #2. Fear of miocarditis is to he only reason I understand, but that isn't the main factor with anyone I know. The went from amiable to a vaccine to not wanting it. I do not claim I understand the thought process.

Lightsaber

I have heard people saying "Why take a vaccine now when they need to be taken every 6 months into the future" citing HK government expert comment on SinoVac

I strongly agree with this sentiment. I feel like a fool now having double vaccinated in Hong Kong since April and there has been zero local Covid cases since then and the 21 day quarantine means that there is absolutely no hope of travel outside Hong Kong.

Why vaccinate if you will never encounter the virus? For those who live in a Covid-zero country like Hong Kong, not vaccinating is the only reasonable choice. You are just having taking a vaccine (which involve a minor risk) to guard against a risk that does not exist in your country.

For those people living in Covid-zero countries the only sensible thing to do is really to wait until they open up before vaccinating. I will definitely not take my booster and advise everyone I know in Hong Kong against taking one until the border opens up.


This all assumes that the virus doesn't make it in. It spreads more quickly than everyone can get vaccinated. Does Hong Kong want another shutdown?

The rest of the world is getting close to the living with it stage. My kids are almost fully vaccinated now. One more shot to go. I think in the US, by March, we need to return to normal life with the vaccines and treatments available.
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 22288
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:19 pm

yonahleung wrote:
Why vaccinate if you will never encounter the virus?


Why have smoke detectors if your house will never burn down?

You never know when you will encounter it and once you do, it is far too late to get vaccinated.

Do you know how many patients I've told they have COVID and suddenly they ask if they can get the vaccine? That's not how it works.

As for me, I just had my third dose. Within about a week I'll be able to have a full-on superspreader cough in my face and almost certainly won't get sick. The cost of this? My arm hurts today.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:12 pm

DocLightning wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
Why vaccinate if you will never encounter the virus?


Why have smoke detectors if your house will never burn down?

You never know when you will encounter it and once you do, it is far too late to get vaccinated.

Do you know how many patients I've told they have COVID and suddenly they ask if they can get the vaccine? That's not how it works.

As for me, I just had my third dose. Within about a week I'll be able to have a full-on superspreader cough in my face and almost certainly won't get sick. The cost of this? My arm hurts today.



You didn't get the aches and chills? Maybe you didn't get the flu vaccine the same day in the other arm ...

Sigh. I was ok a day later.


Did you get the same booster as the previous two? I got switched out to Moderna,
 
Kent350787
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Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Fascinating graphic on vaccine effectiveness that visually tells us how well vaccines are working:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Image
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Since it's mainly older people who end up at the hospital for COVID, their absolute numbers can sometimes give off the impression that vaccines are not working as well as they are.


The difference between unvaccinated 12-17 years olds being unvaccinated the most likely to have coronavirus and the vaccinated the least likely is striking. I suspect the 65-79 vaccinated being lower is social distancing. The hospitalization rates are definitely age dependent (see the link). I like to do simulations, if we could cut in half the unvaccinated and increase booster acceptance, my model shows a nice drop in cases and thus hospitalizations. What my model shows is that well vaccinated areas are protected while poorly vaccinated areas will have cases just spread as their will be multiple exposure (much higher chance of infection in unvaccinated or vaccinated due to more rapid spread).

Lightaber


Our experience in Australia at this stage is that hospitalisations are no longer necessarily linked to case numbers on the back of high vaccination rates. Daily case numbers are stubbornly stalled in NSW and Victoria (where there are current outbreaks), but hospitalisations in both states are continuing to fall daily. Vaccination coverage is around 90% 16+ in those states, and only a little less 12+. In NSW, vaccination whole piopulation is now over 80%.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 118
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 12, 2021 1:54 am

DocLightning wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
Why vaccinate if you will never encounter the virus?


Why have smoke detectors if your house will never burn down?

You never know when you will encounter it and once you do, it is far too late to get vaccinated.

Do you know how many patients I've told they have COVID and suddenly they ask if they can get the vaccine? That's not how it works.

As for me, I just had my third dose. Within about a week I'll be able to have a full-on superspreader cough in my face and almost certainly won't get sick. The cost of this? My arm hurts today.

Doc, I completely agree with what you have said but that is only applicable to the free world. In this part of the world behind the red curtain, all inbound travellers are locked up in a hotel for 21 days before they are released. And entire cities (with populations of several million) will be PCR-tested if they find a single COVID-case in the city. What the CCP doing here is a massive overkill and I probably will win the Powerball before I encounter the virus here as the thing stands currently.

To be honest , I hope I am wrong and there is a massive outbreak in Hong Kong/China soon that the CCP cannot control. That is the only way that 1) people recognise Covid-zero does not work and the CCP finally allows the reopening of the border; and 2) the vaccine hesitants will get their dose or just get covid (so we have a higher vaccination rate either way).

But I am not counting on this Covid successfully break through the red curtain scenario. The border quarantines and electronic surveillance of every person in China are so powerful that Covid has to become much much more infectious to get through in China. Heck, they have stopped an entire Disneyland from leaving (for PCR testing) just because there was a confirmed case there the day before.

People outside China/Hong Kong just do not understand CCP's obssession with Covid-zero and the lengths they are willing to go to, to maintain it.

I know the vaccines work, and I have convinced my entire family to have the vaccine long ago. But there really is no need for anyone to take it in Hong Kong. Covid zero is here to stay for another couple of years, if not decades.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 118
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:04 am

casinterest wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
c933103 wrote:
I have heard people saying "Why take a vaccine now when they need to be taken every 6 months into the future" citing HK government expert comment on SinoVac

I strongly agree with this sentiment. I feel like a fool now having double vaccinated in Hong Kong since April and there has been zero local Covid cases since then and the 21 day quarantine means that there is absolutely no hope of travel outside Hong Kong.

Why vaccinate if you will never encounter the virus? For those who live in a Covid-zero country like Hong Kong, not vaccinating is the only reasonable choice. You are just having taking a vaccine (which involve a minor risk) to guard against a risk that does not exist in your country.

For those people living in Covid-zero countries the only sensible thing to do is really to wait until they open up before vaccinating. I will definitely not take my booster and advise everyone I know in Hong Kong against taking one until the border opens up.


This all assumes that the virus doesn't make it in. It spreads more quickly than everyone can get vaccinated. Does Hong Kong want another shutdown?

The rest of the world is getting close to the living with it stage. My kids are almost fully vaccinated now. One more shot to go. I think in the US, by March, we need to return to normal life with the vaccines and treatments available.

Hong Kong is in effect in an indefinite shutdown. We are having more stringent "Covid restrictions" (which has the surely unintended side effect of depriving civil liberties) day-by-day when there are no local covid cases for a few months. We are not allowed to gather in groups of more than four in open air areas, but we can dine in a table of 12 indoors or have a cocktail party of 200 if it is in a private place.

There is a 14-21 day mandatory hotel quarantine for everyone coming in from a foreign place.

Overall, our Covid experience is very different from the free world.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:29 am

casinterest wrote:
This all assumes that the virus doesn't make it in. It spreads more quickly than everyone can get vaccinated. Does Hong Kong want another shutdown?

The rest of the world is getting close to the living with it stage. My kids are almost fully vaccinated now. One more shot to go. I think in the US, by March, we need to return to normal life with the vaccines and treatments available.

The government's current plan is to use the almost-year-long covid-free situation, plus high vaccination rate, as a rationale to tighten coronavirus measure, so that the city can fulfill China's requirement and open up to China before the start of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic. Hence, elevating vaccination rate provide reasons for the government to enhance their control measure against local population.

And with "booster dose needed every 6-8 months", no one will ever be "fully vaccinated". There will only be cycles of higher immunity and lower immunity against the virus as you keep getting the vaccine twice a year or so.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 12, 2021 9:34 am

https://www.881903.com/news/local/2417463
Jury in HK court unanimously rejected expert opinion which claim a patient died due to Myocardial infraction two days after getting SinoVac vaccine was due to preexisting condition, deemed the clause of death "suspicious"
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4281
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Fascinating graphic on vaccine effectiveness that visually tells us how well vaccines are working:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Image
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Since it's mainly older people who end up at the hospital for COVID, their absolute numbers can sometimes give off the impression that vaccines are not working as well as they are.


The difference between unvaccinated 12-17 years olds being unvaccinated the most likely to have coronavirus and the vaccinated the least likely is striking. I suspect the 65-79 vaccinated being lower is social distancing. The hospitalization rates are definitely age dependent (see the link). I like to do simulations, if we could cut in half the unvaccinated and increase booster acceptance, my model shows a nice drop in cases and thus hospitalizations. What my model shows is that well vaccinated areas are protected while poorly vaccinated areas will have cases just spread as their will be multiple exposure (much higher chance of infection in unvaccinated or vaccinated due to more rapid spread).

Lightaber



Not doubting that graph accuracy for the demographics mentioned but it forgets the most socially active demographic which is 18-29. I hope missing that was an oversight and not excluding it because that bucks the trend.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4281
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 12, 2021 4:41 pm

yonahleung wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
Why vaccinate if you will never encounter the virus?


Why have smoke detectors if your house will never burn down?

You never know when you will encounter it and once you do, it is far too late to get vaccinated.

Do you know how many patients I've told they have COVID and suddenly they ask if they can get the vaccine? That's not how it works.

As for me, I just had my third dose. Within about a week I'll be able to have a full-on superspreader cough in my face and almost certainly won't get sick. The cost of this? My arm hurts today.

Doc, I completely agree with what you have said but that is only applicable to the free world. In this part of the world behind the red curtain, all inbound travellers are locked up in a hotel for 21 days before they are released. And entire cities (with populations of several million) will be PCR-tested if they find a single COVID-case in the city. What the CCP doing here is a massive overkill and I probably will win the Powerball before I encounter the virus here as the thing stands currently.

To be honest , I hope I am wrong and there is a massive outbreak in Hong Kong/China soon that the CCP cannot control. That is the only way that 1) people recognise Covid-zero does not work and the CCP finally allows the reopening of the border; and 2) the vaccine hesitants will get their dose or just get covid (so we have a higher vaccination rate either way).

But I am not counting on this Covid successfully break through the red curtain scenario. The border quarantines and electronic surveillance of every person in China are so powerful that Covid has to become much much more infectious to get through in China. Heck, they have stopped an entire Disneyland from leaving (for PCR testing) just because there was a confirmed case there the day before.

People outside China/Hong Kong just do not understand CCP's obssession with Covid-zero and the lengths they are willing to go to, to maintain it.

I know the vaccines work, and I have convinced my entire family to have the vaccine long ago. But there really is no need for anyone to take it in Hong Kong. Covid zero is here to stay for another couple of years, if not decades.


Covid Zero is destined to fail regardless of how draconian the measures. Australia learned, New Zealand learned, Singapore learned and China/Hong Kong will learn too. The only hope we had on getting this squashed was to do a full lockdown of Wuhan/China when the virus was first identified. Even then it was likely too late as it was already in Europe in late 2019.

Humans can't beat nature. All it takes is someone who is attending to one of the sick people in hotel quarantine to catch it and bring it home (happened in Melbourne) . Or someone for whom the incubation is the full 14 days and is asymptomatic and is one day 7 of their infection (out of quarantine) and spreads it in the community (you are symptomatic for 10 days usually). The aggressive lockdowns as you say will be there forever an Hong Kong is a big tourist destination so people simply won't come and trade will be diminished. It will hurt your city's economy in the long term.
 
Toenga
Posts: 334
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:18 pm

StarAC17 wrote:

Covid Zero is destined to fail regardless of how draconian the measures. Australia learned, New Zealand learned, Singapore learned and China/Hong Kong will learn too. The only hope we had on getting this squashed was to do a full lockdown of Wuhan/China when the virus was first identified. Even then it was likely too late as it was already in Europe in late 2019.

Humans can't beat nature. All it takes is someone who is attending to one of the sick people in hotel quarantine to catch it and bring it home (happened in Melbourne) . Or someone for whom the incubation is the full 14 days and is asymptomatic and is one day 7 of their infection (out of quarantine) and spreads it in the community (you are symptomatic for 10 days usually). The aggressive lockdowns as you say will be there forever an Hong Kong is a big tourist destination so people simply won't come and trade will be diminished. It will hurt your city's economy in the long term.


Covid zero did not fail in Australia and NZ. It was actually incredibly successful.
Too many commentators extrapolated the idea to believe it was to be a permanant strategy. It was not.
It was only ever intended to be an interim strategy to limit damage until;
1/ medicines were developed.
and
2/ they had been rolled out to the entire willing population, something with supply constraints would have taken to early next year.

Most Australian states have very largely achieved this. There, they have lived with remarkably little constraints, remarkably little disruption to both their economy and their daily lives. A truely enviable last 5 months compared to the rest of the world. and even to the rest of us in Australasia. And nobody has died there of Covid.
In that time though they have raised their vaccination rates to above those in the US, and are continuing at pace to raise vaccination rates to amongst the highest in the world so they will be in a very good position when they open up travel to the rest of the world in only a month or so.

NSW VIC and NZ have had covid overcome their defences, so their vaccination rollout has had to be accomplished with parallel, with often severe restrictions, damaging their economies and social fabrics.
Something they could have really done without.
There, health systems have been stressed and people have died of covid. Businesses have been severly curtailed.
The only upside is their vaccine rollouts are now a few weeks ahead of those States that have remained covid free.

Australia has achieved a covid death rate of only 74 deaths per million
New Zealand only 6 deaths per million.
So no failure there.

Here in NZ, even in Auckland we are doing OK, but we would have been immeasurably better off, if we had been able to keep covid out until we had rolled out both doses of vaccination to everybody willing, which would have been achieved probably well within Q1 next year.
We would have instead been enjoying near normality like residents of Queensland, Tasmania, and Western and Southern Australia.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:48 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Fascinating graphic on vaccine effectiveness that visually tells us how well vaccines are working:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Image
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Since it's mainly older people who end up at the hospital for COVID, their absolute numbers can sometimes give off the impression that vaccines are not working as well as they are.


The difference between unvaccinated 12-17 years olds being unvaccinated the most likely to have coronavirus and the vaccinated the least likely is striking. I suspect the 65-79 vaccinated being lower is social distancing. The hospitalization rates are definitely age dependent (see the link). I like to do simulations, if we could cut in half the unvaccinated and increase booster acceptance, my model shows a nice drop in cases and thus hospitalizations. What my model shows is that well vaccinated areas are protected while poorly vaccinated areas will have cases just spread as their will be multiple exposure (much higher chance of infection in unvaccinated or vaccinated due to more rapid spread).

Lightaber



Not doubting that graph accuracy for the demographics mentioned but it forgets the most socially active demographic which is 18-29. I hope missing that was an oversight and not excluding it because that bucks the trend.

Its also missing age 50 to 64, us oldies were excluded.

I'd imagine 18-29 has mixed messages. For their vaccine is aging (need boosters, but unless they are in California or Colorado, they cannot except for career enabled opportunities).

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/2-states ... 04824.html

While us craftier middle aged (the missing age 50-64) are far more likely to be in a career or, gasp, sign the health portion. As my older child received the vaccine on the very first day the 12-15 year olds could, which is under six months, their data wouldn't be effected by boosters or the lack of them.

Just my :twocents:

I'm currently reading the book The Psychology of Pandemics by Steven Taylor (hattip Fmrcaptcadet for the recommendation) and it notes school age children are a primary transmission source and we cannot get out of a pandemic without vaccinating the kids in school (I am not certain if that includes college kids). BTW, wish I had read the book when it was published.

Classroom settings must be worse than cubicle land for the spread of a virus, in my opinion.

Unfortunately the solutions available aren't popular. The Swiss Cheese model works. Vaccines are just one aspect that is critical to normality. Looking at so many countries, we just aren't ready. (Note, I compare to EU as no one would compare to say Vermont, this is about movement to exposing the next host):
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 13, 2021 3:59 am

https://yns.page.link/Gqx2s
Experts in Hong Kong:
Children age down to 3 will be allowed to receive Pfizer vaccine jointly developed by Mainland China with Germany, and Mainland China's SinoVac vaccine.
They claim as the Pfizrr baccine dosage will only be one third of adult dosage, the safety would be higher, and it can be made more safe by injecting at thigh.
The expert also claimed that, if parents are still worried about Pfizer vaccines, they can take SinoVac instead, which produce less antibodies, but similar level of antibodies can be obtained by giving the childrens 3-4 doses SinoVac.

It was also claimed that, as shown in other countries, even with 80% vaccination rate, outbreak can still occurs and with 2% death rate, and qith Hong Kong currently only 70% vaccinated, reopening could result in death of ten of thousands in addition to medical system breakdown.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 13, 2021 5:12 pm

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-11-10/
Korea: 90% adults, or 77% entire population, are now fully vaccinated, yet severe case still hit record high, at 475 serious case a day in the country of 51 million population.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 14, 2021 4:36 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/skorea-urges-covid-19-booster-shots-severe-cases-hit-record-2021-11-10/
Korea: 90% adults, or 77% entire population, are now fully vaccinated, yet severe case still hit record high, at 475 serious case a day in the country of 51 million population.


That's a flawed and disingenuous way of presenting the situation.

South Korea has done a good job keeping the virus at bay until most of its population was vaccinated, meaning that the 'record high' is still well under the numbers that nations with similar populations will have seen in their waves, and the numbers of casualties per day per capita is also still well below what many nations have had during their worst times, once again showing how effective vaccines are at mitigating the worst of Covid.

Also keep in mind that since SK hasn't seen large scale waves yet, most of the population will only have to rely on artificial immunity without help from previous exposure.

The same is happening in Singapore. 'Record' levels of infection (as the city-nation has now shifted to Covid-resilience) are only producing a death rate per capita 5 to 10 times lower than what other nations experienced at this stage in their exposure pre-vaccines.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 118
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 14, 2021 4:54 pm

Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/skorea-urges-covid-19-booster-shots-severe-cases-hit-record-2021-11-10/
Korea: 90% adults, or 77% entire population, are now fully vaccinated, yet severe case still hit record high, at 475 serious case a day in the country of 51 million population.


That's a flawed and disingenuous way of presenting the situation.

South Korea has done a good job keeping the virus at bay until most of its population was vaccinated, meaning that the 'record high' is still well under the numbers that nations with similar populations will have seen in their waves, and the numbers of casualties per day per capita is also still well below what many nations have had during their worst times, once again showing how effective vaccines are at mitigating the worst of Covid.

Also keep in mind that since SK hasn't seen large scale waves yet, most of the population will only have to rely on artificial immunity without help from previous exposure.

The same is happening in Singapore. 'Record' levels of infection (as the city-nation has now shifted to Covid-resilience) are only producing a death rate per capita 5 to 10 times lower than what other nations experienced at this stage in their exposure pre-vaccines.

The real concern I am having now is that why the pharmaceutical companies are so confident with using the original Covid vaccine and not a Beta/Delta specific vaccine. I suspect a Beta-Delta specific booster would be much more powerful than using an original booster. When mRNA first came out they were saying that could be done in 100 days...
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:52 pm

Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/skorea-urges-covid-19-booster-shots-severe-cases-hit-record-2021-11-10/
Korea: 90% adults, or 77% entire population, are now fully vaccinated, yet severe case still hit record high, at 475 serious case a day in the country of 51 million population.


That's a flawed and disingenuous way of presenting the situation.

South Korea has done a good job keeping the virus at bay until most of its population was vaccinated, meaning that the 'record high' is still well under the numbers that nations with similar populations will have seen in their waves, and the numbers of casualties per day per capita is also still well below what many nations have had during their worst times, once again showing how effective vaccines are at mitigating the worst of Covid.

Also keep in mind that since SK hasn't seen large scale waves yet, most of the population will only have to rely on artificial immunity without help from previous exposure.

The same is happening in Singapore. 'Record' levels of infection (as the city-nation has now shifted to Covid-resilience) are only producing a death rate per capita 5 to 10 times lower than what other nations experienced at this stage in their exposure pre-vaccines.

Yet, such number mean both Seoul and Incheon are seeing over 75% of their corona severe case beds being occupied, reaching emergency level set by Korean government when they announced reopening plan.
Rest of the country also see their corona ward severe bed being 60-70% occupied already, and case number isn't declining, despite now 78% population vaccination rate
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/ ... 13?sid=102


https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/ ... 77?sid=102
Especially concerned by experts is the rise of severe vase among vaccinated individuals, at pace faster than anticipated
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 14, 2021 6:03 pm

yonahleung wrote:
The real concern I am having now is that why the pharmaceutical companies are so confident with using the original Covid vaccine and not a Beta/Delta specific vaccine. I suspect a Beta-Delta specific booster would be much more powerful than using an original booster. When mRNA first came out they were saying that could be done in 100 days...

Yes, it'd probably only take 100 days to make a variant specific booster, but trials and certification time are most likely not included. And it is hard to expect what variant will be prevailing after, say, 200 days. This spring we're worrying N501Y but now we're worrying L452R. Who can say for certain after they developed a new vaccine and put into trial, that variant isn't outdated already.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 14, 2021 6:19 pm

c933103 wrote:
Yet, such number mean both Seoul and Incheon are seeing over 75% of their corona severe case beds being occupied, reaching emergency level set by Korean government when they announced reopening plan.
Rest of the country also see their corona ward severe bed being 60-70% occupied already, and case number isn't declining, despite now 78% population vaccination rate
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/ ... 13?sid=102


https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/ ... 77?sid=102
Especially concerned by experts is the rise of severe vase among vaccinated individuals, at pace faster than anticipated


The case load is not decreasing, but it is not appreciably increasing either and is remaining at much lower levels than what we've seen in unvaccinated nations earlier in the crisis, especially considering the generally higher population density in South Korea.
As for hospital occupancy, no nation plans its hospital capacity with a pandemic in mind. Any novel disease circulating or even a bad strain of the flu can strain the system.
Given the inevitability of Covid eventually and the fact that there is not nor will there be a better measure for it than the vaccines, I'd say they've done a good job managing the crisis so far, and their numbers relative to other similar countries show this.

yonahleung wrote:
The real concern I am having now is that why the pharmaceutical companies are so confident with using the original Covid vaccine and not a Beta/Delta specific vaccine. I suspect a Beta-Delta specific booster would be much more powerful than using an original booster. When mRNA first came out they were saying that could be done in 100 days...


Cost vs. benefits, I'd say.
Current vaccines already have 90+% efficacy rates and even higher when it comes to preventing hospitalization and death.
I'm not sure the extra few percent a more targeted vaccine would be worth the investment, especially given the very rapidly evolving nature of said that target.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 14, 2021 6:32 pm

Francoflier wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Yet, such number mean both Seoul and Incheon are seeing over 75% of their corona severe case beds being occupied, reaching emergency level set by Korean government when they announced reopening plan.
Rest of the country also see their corona ward severe bed being 60-70% occupied already, and case number isn't declining, despite now 78% population vaccination rate
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/ ... 13?sid=102


https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/ ... 77?sid=102
Especially concerned by experts is the rise of severe vase among vaccinated individuals, at pace faster than anticipated


The case load is not decreasing, but it is not appreciably increasing either and is remaining at much lower levels than what we've seen in unvaccinated nations earlier in the crisis, especially considering the generally higher population density in South Korea.
As for hospital occupancy, no nation plans its hospital capacity with a pandemic in mind. Any novel disease circulating or even a bad strain of the flu can strain the system.
Given the inevitability of Covid eventually and the fact that there is not nor will there be a better measure for it than the vaccines, I'd say they've done a good job managing the crisis so far, and their numbers relative to other similar countries show this.

Problem is, other countries Korea can compares to nearbys include Japan and Taiwan. Which aren't having higher vaccination rate nor were they implementing extremely strict control policy, but both are now better than South Korea currently.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:40 am

Francoflier wrote:
As for hospital occupancy, no nation plans its hospital capacity with a pandemic in mind. Any novel disease circulating or even a bad strain of the flu can strain the system.
Given the inevitability of Covid eventually and the fact that there is not nor will there be a better measure for it than the vaccines, I'd say they've done a good job managing the crisis so far, and their numbers relative to other similar countries show this.

We've done well so far. But if we look at globally, the next wave is clearly here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The USA has a huge baseload of coronavirus in the hospitals taking capacity from other care and when that goes up again this winter, I am predicting it will be too much for burned out medical stafe:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

A hospital generally needs about 4 staff per bed, I estimate it takes 10 staff per coronavirus patient (they are very labor intensive):
https://www.quora.com/How-many-employee ... on-average

It has reached the point where they are having to look into the PTSD of medical staff serving in the wards:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080924/

There is really only one solution. A higher level of vaccination. This paper notes:
“Indeed, a 60% reduction in hospitalizations and a 57% reduction in mortality could potentially bring the pandemic to an end without the need for further lockdowns or restrictions in movement”, say the authors of this study published in the journal Vaccines.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211 ... study.aspx

We need to get back to a normal life. I *finally* thought my kids were protected enough for me to go out dancing again for the first time in 2 years (fun, but awkward as I literally *just* went out into a big group for the first time in this pandemic). I realized something; I get to assume every adult is taking responsibility for their own health (vaccinated or not). I feel for the poor medical staff, but the time for us responsible to coddle those that don'e want the easiest solution is over.

Oh, on the vaccine variant vaccines I estimate going to a new recipe would cost 6 to 8 weeks of production or 1.5 to 2 billion doses. So the math is easy, keep producing as a few percent more effective will never make up for that level of shortfall. As, for example, Moderna is able to increase production on the new lines in the USA and South Korea and SII also increases production, I fully expect a true booster within a year. But for now, the best solution is just more. That includes more vaccines certified for children and certainly down to 6 months of age.

Lightsaber
 
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AirPacific747
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 11:18 am

Just had a Moderna booster after having received the Johnson vaccine 5 months ago, which means I'm cross vaccinated in a way that EMA hasn't approved yet. Should I be worried? Anyway too late to change my mind.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 12:18 pm

AirPacific747 wrote:
Just had a Moderna booster after having received the Johnson vaccine 5 months ago, which means I'm cross vaccinated in a way that EMA hasn't approved yet. Should I be worried? Anyway too late to change my mind.

Since the FDA has approved cross("heteralogous") vaccination, you should be ok. You are certainly safer. The question is should you switch over and have a 2nd dose of Moderna so that you are on a known, researched course of vaccination.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-a ... 9-vaccines

The effectiveness matches, or might even be better than 2 doses of mRNA:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02853-4

The above link notes, they don't know how the vaccines will age (deteriorate). In my opinion, you did the right thing.

Lightsaber
 
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AirPacific747
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 12:49 pm

lightsaber wrote:
AirPacific747 wrote:
Just had a Moderna booster after having received the Johnson vaccine 5 months ago, which means I'm cross vaccinated in a way that EMA hasn't approved yet. Should I be worried? Anyway too late to change my mind.

Since the FDA has approved cross("heteralogous") vaccination, you should be ok. You are certainly safer. The question is should you switch over and have a 2nd dose of Moderna so that you are on a known, researched course of vaccination.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-a ... 9-vaccines

The effectiveness matches, or might even be better than 2 doses of mRNA:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02853-4

The above link notes, they don't know how the vaccines will age (deteriorate). In my opinion, you did the right thing.

Lightsaber


Thanks for taking the time to reply. I’ll accept a second dose of Moderna if/when offered because I want to be fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine type. And since I already committed to the first Moderna jab, I might as well get a second too. If only to make traveling a lot easier.

Also, it gives me some comfort that you say that FDA has approved it.
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 3:44 pm

No surprise here...

It was reported in England today by the Chief Medical Officer (or whatever his designation is) that 98% of pregnant women hospitalsed with COVID-19 were unvaccinated. I think the same applied to infected pregnant women receiving intensive care (98% unvaccinated).

Source: BBC TV 24 hour news
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:53 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

Vaccine risks, a good discussion and pretty complete. There are, as I read it, not more than 5 complications per million injections. And only a few established deaths from the vaccine. Particularly useful are the exact demographics of most of the vaccines. This could advise those who worry which vaccines are least likely to cause side effects. What young men (below 30?), women below 50, the very ill etc.

Bloomberg pay wall can sometimes be a little difficult.
 
Toenga
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:42 pm

In New Zealand Booster shots available to all over 18, 6 months minimum after their last shot, from November 29th
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... his-month..
Vaccine stock is in hand.

The six month limitation and our late availability of first doses will mean that initially only border staff and especially vulnerable people will be eligible from that date.
6 months for me, will be mid January.
For the bulk of our population eligibility will not be until late March at least , as unconstrained vaccine supply did not occur until into September.

Already a 3rd shot for immunocompromised people has been available on prescription for about a month now.
NZ has basically an all Pfizer vaccination program. AZ is available on request from a limited number of locations as an alternative.

Currently over 76% of the population have received their first dose and 68% are fully vaccinated. 15% of the population are under 12 and ineligible. Pfizer have applied for NZ approval of their pediatric vaccine, and NZ has an option to convert part of an existing order to pediatric doses.
So we expect the commencement of this program to entirely dependant on Pfizer ability to supply
 
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United787
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:13 pm

yonahleung wrote:
People outside China/Hong Kong just do not understand CCP's obssession with Covid-zero and the lengths they are willing to go to, to maintain it.

I know the vaccines work, and I have convinced my entire family to have the vaccine long ago. But there really is no need for anyone to take it in Hong Kong. Covid zero is here to stay for another couple of years, if not decades.


I am not a consipracy theorist in any way shape or form but this makes me wonder if China knows something more about this virus. Because no one could realistically believe that a country as large as China and as also has entrenched in the global economy could maintain COVID Zero indefinitly. It is crazy.
 
Toenga
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:58 pm

United787 wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
People outside China/Hong Kong just do not understand CCP's obssession with Covid-zero and the lengths they are willing to go to, to maintain it.

I know the vaccines work, and I have convinced my entire family to have the vaccine long ago. But there really is no need for anyone to take it in Hong Kong. Covid zero is here to stay for another couple of years, if not decades.


I am not a consipracy theorist in any way shape or form but this makes me wonder if China knows something more about this virus. Because no one could realistically believe that a country as large as China and as also has entrenched in the global economy could maintain COVID Zero indefinitly. It is crazy.


My feeling is, that it is not knowing more about the virus, but that the imposition of the required suppression methods in pursuing a covid zero policy aligns with CCP objectives to reduce western influence and consolidate it's own influence. Especially for Hong Kong.

The NZ experience is that inspite of extremly high dependence on exports to maintain high dependence on imported goods, off shore trade was very suprisingly little affected. Even the loss of overseas income to our tourism market was very largely offset by not bleeding local dollars to offshore tourism.
I think Australia, as the largest? per capita market of the offshore cruising market, possibly experienced a net gain from the temporary shut down of this industry. Stopping the bleeding of Australians spending offshore on cruises probably more then offset the gains of the cruise industry related spending in Australia.

As a beneficiary of a covid zero policy, I am very supportive of it's application at the beginning of the pandemic, and up until satisfactory vaccination suppression has occurred. What remains very contentious is determining what level of suppression or vaccination amounts to satisfactory.
For us in NZ opening up to travel , and our tourism industry, to and from the rest of the world is the benifit of a post zero transition.
For China the benifit/ cost mix is undoubtedly very different for their government. Their priorities will be different.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:01 pm

Toenga wrote:
In New Zealand Booster shots available to all over 18, 6 months minimum after their last shot, from November 29th
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... his-month..
Vaccine stock is in hand.

The six month limitation and our late availability of first doses will mean that initially only border staff and especially vulnerable people will be eligible from that date.
6 months for me, will be mid January.
For the bulk of our population eligibility will not be until late March at least , as unconstrained vaccine supply did not occur until into September.

Already a 3rd shot for immunocompromised people has been available on prescription for about a month now.
NZ has basically an all Pfizer vaccination program. AZ is available on request from a limited number of locations as an alternative.

Currently over 76% of the population have received their first dose and 68% are fully vaccinated. 15% of the population are under 12 and ineligible. Pfizer have applied for NZ approval of their pediatric vaccine, and NZ has an option to convert part of an existing order to pediatric doses.
So we expect the commencement of this program to entirely dependant on Pfizer ability to supply


In Australia, some states have had their booster program (Pfizer) running for almost a month, as well as 3rd dose for immunocompromised. I'm eligible for a booster at the end of January, having had two shots of AZ (May and July). My state of New South Wales has now reached 90% 12+ population, while Victoria seems to be slowing a little and won't reach that target until at least this time next week. These states cover around 60% of the national population, and have current active outbreaks.

No other states have active outbreaks, which seems to mean a lack of driver twoards vaccination. Queensland, the next most populous state, has passed 80% first dose, but is at least 7 weeks aways from 90% 12+ coverage.

Although peopel can now travel quarantine free between NSW and Victoria, residents from those states must quarantine on arrival if approved to enter any of the other states. The other states are all making 80% 16+ coverage a minimum for reopening borders. Victorians are currently banned from entering Western Austrlaliam, and it is currently easier for me to travel from Sydney to and from Perth, Scotland, UK than it is to travel to and from Perth, Western Australia.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:07 pm

AirPacific747 wrote:
Just had a Moderna booster after having received the Johnson vaccine 5 months ago, which means I'm cross vaccinated in a way that EMA hasn't approved yet. Should I be worried? Anyway too late to change my mind.


I had a Pfizer then a Moderna shot 7 weeks apart. 3 million people in Canada got an AZ shot followed by an mRNA booster. The mix and match does show a robust immune response and it actually in a way preferable to get an mRNA booster. With viral vector vaccines (which J&J is) a side effect is that the immune system actually will attack the benign virus as its learned to fight that too, lessening the spike protein production with the booster.

With the mRNA that gets injected directly into cells and the immune response for the covid spike protein would take effect after the cells make the spike protein for the immune system to attack.

We have mixed and match many multiple multi-dose vaccines without issue. If you have a young child and he is getting an MMR shot, you don't ask who makes it as they all can be interchanged.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:00 pm

Toenga wrote:
Covid zero did not fail in Australia and NZ. It was actually incredibly successful.


Until Delta.
yonahleung wrote:
The real concern I am having now is that why the pharmaceutical companies are so confident with using the original Covid vaccine and not a Beta/Delta specific vaccine.


Because the immune system is going to make twenty or thirty antibodies against spike. There is no variant that has changed all of these binding sites.
 
Toenga
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 16, 2021 7:18 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Toenga wrote:
Covid zero did not fail in Australia and NZ. It was actually incredibly successful.


Actually, even post delta.

Five Australian states and Northern Territory have been able maintain covid zero to the present, and live with only minimal disruption, losing next to no lives to covid, and move at pace, from having some of the lowest vaccination rates in the world, to now having some of the highest.

NZ, NSW, and VIC, in order of declining success and duration, have continued covid zero outside their major city, keeping the rest of their territorial area covid, and near disruption free,
Again while moving at incredible pace from extremly low levels of vaccination, to now very high levels, throughout their populations.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 12:05 am

Toenga wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
Toenga wrote:
Covid zero did not fail in Australia and NZ. It was actually incredibly successful.


Actually, even post delta.

Five Australian states and Northern Territory have been able maintain covid zero to the present, and live with only minimal disruption, losing next to no lives to covid, and move at pace, from having some of the lowest vaccination rates in the world, to now having some of the highest.

NZ, NSW, and VIC, in order of declining success and duration, have continued covid zero outside their major city, keeping the rest of their territorial area covid, and near disruption free,
Again while moving at incredible pace from extremly low levels of vaccination, to now very high levels, throughout their populations.


The higher infectiousness of Delta has been a significant challenge, readily overwhelming even the best contact tracing systems (especially when there are inexplicable gaps in information - how do you not report for two days that your grandfather flew 600 miles to come to your birthday party and then flew home and may possibly also be infected?

On the negative side, NSW, Victoria and NZ have demonstrated the risks of a delayed vaccine rollout, with the Australian "strollout" (the Australian National Dictionary Centre word of the year) only justifiable with poor vaccine supply and no current cases.

On the positive side, the same jurisdictions are demonstrating very clearly the willingness of their populations to vaccinate, and the impact of high vaccination rates on Delta outbreaks.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:47 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
DocLightning wrote:


Actually, even post delta.

Five Australian states and Northern Territory have been able maintain covid zero to the present, and live with only minimal disruption, losing next to no lives to covid, and move at pace, from having some of the lowest vaccination rates in the world, to now having some of the highest.

NZ, NSW, and VIC, in order of declining success and duration, have continued covid zero outside their major city, keeping the rest of their territorial area covid, and near disruption free,
Again while moving at incredible pace from extremly low levels of vaccination, to now very high levels, throughout their populations.


The higher infectiousness of Delta has been a significant challenge, readily overwhelming even the best contact tracing systems (especially when there are inexplicable gaps in information - how do you not report for two days that your grandfather flew 600 miles to come to your birthday party and then flew home and may possibly also be infected?

On the negative side, NSW, Victoria and NZ have demonstrated the risks of a delayed vaccine rollout, with the Australian "strollout" (the Australian National Dictionary Centre word of the year) only justifiable with poor vaccine supply and no current cases.

On the positive side, the same jurisdictions are demonstrating very clearly the willingness of their populations to vaccinate, and the impact of high vaccination rates on Delta outbreaks.

Should countries actively infect their population so as to obtain sympathy from vaccine producers to get quicker access ro vaccines?
 
Toenga
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:14 am

c933103 wrote:

Should countries actively infect their population so as to obtain sympathy from vaccine producers to get quicker access ro vaccines?


One thing very apparent in NZ, and I strongly suspect in Australia also, is that Pfizer are scrupulous in handling orders in strict order, that they were received. And have delivered in accordance with accepted delivery schedules.
NZ and Australia placed their initial orders almost on the same day and received their first deliveries on the same day.
The trouble was those first orders were not large enough, in NZ case, no where near large enough.
This was because it was initially anticipated that orders placed with other suppliers at the same time would also be utilised.

NZ decided then on an all Pfizer program but had to accept a several month delay on supply to this second order.
Australia decided about a month later to make Pfizer a much bigger part of their program but had to accept an even larger delay to deliveries.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:22 am

c933103 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Toenga wrote:

Actually, even post delta.

Five Australian states and Northern Territory have been able maintain covid zero to the present, and live with only minimal disruption, losing next to no lives to covid, and move at pace, from having some of the lowest vaccination rates in the world, to now having some of the highest.

NZ, NSW, and VIC, in order of declining success and duration, have continued covid zero outside their major city, keeping the rest of their territorial area covid, and near disruption free,
Again while moving at incredible pace from extremly low levels of vaccination, to now very high levels, throughout their populations.


The higher infectiousness of Delta has been a significant challenge, readily overwhelming even the best contact tracing systems (especially when there are inexplicable gaps in information - how do you not report for two days that your grandfather flew 600 miles to come to your birthday party and then flew home and may possibly also be infected?

On the negative side, NSW, Victoria and NZ have demonstrated the risks of a delayed vaccine rollout, with the Australian "strollout" (the Australian National Dictionary Centre word of the year) only justifiable with poor vaccine supply and no current cases.

On the positive side, the same jurisdictions are demonstrating very clearly the willingness of their populations to vaccinate, and the impact of high vaccination rates on Delta outbreaks.

Should countries actively infect their population so as to obtain sympathy from vaccine producers to get quicker access ro vaccines?


The poor vaccine supply in Australia was primarily as a result of ordering decisions and poor communication by the Australian Government. The Government actively prioritised AZ over Pfizer in initial ordering, and then (typically) poorly managed the situation when TTS started being reported resulting from AZ.

Which meant Australia headed to the back of the queue for Pfizer, quite reasonably. Outbreaks in Sydney and Melbourne meant that people saw that AZ was far, far safer than the increased Covid risk. Credit where it's due, the Australian Government also negotiated extra Pfizwr such as from Poland, where supply was well above community demand.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:29 pm

Moderna has asked for Canadian approval for 6 to 11 year olds.
https://www.poandpo.com/in-sickness-and ... years-old/

In my opinion, we need more vaccines for kids. I live between LAX and LGB airports in SoCal and there isn't any vaccine appointment for young kids unil a week from now and I'm sure that they are only open as they went online for next Wednesday less than a half hour ago.

It could be because doctors are just too darn busy treating all the "delayed care" from their patients. I do not know of a local pediatrician who has the time to deal with the "emotion" of giving the vaccines. Relatively few pharmacies are even willing to do it (two independent, three CVS, and three Wallgreens within the distance they'll tell you about after I put in my zipcode). I speculate many more will offer vaccines if Moderna is approved (e.g., my three closest pharmacies only do Moderna vaccines as it isn't worth stocking more than one and only the local Costco does all 3 and they are so busy, they are only doing adults due to the Federal contractor/healthcare mandate... Yet other pharmacies aren't busy, I cannot explain why other than some being mandated into vaccination are just doing J&J and the next closest pharmacy that does J&J is a further ten miles from me after I pass the Costco.)

So I consider this good news to vaccinate more kids. Hopefully Moderna's production on the new US lines and the South Korean Samsung factory ramp up nicely (as well as any others I'm forgetting about that are ramping up production) so the whole world can be vaccinated.

Lightsaber
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Moderna has asked for Canadian approval for 6 to 11 year olds.
https://www.poandpo.com/in-sickness-and ... years-old/

In my opinion, we need more vaccines for kids. I live between LAX and LGB airports in SoCal and there isn't any vaccine appointment for young kids unil a week from now and I'm sure that they are only open as they went online for next Wednesday less than a half hour ago.

It could be because doctors are just too darn busy treating all the "delayed care" from their patients. I do not know of a local pediatrician who has the time to deal with the "emotion" of giving the vaccines. Relatively few pharmacies are even willing to do it (two independent, three CVS, and three Wallgreens within the distance they'll tell you about after I put in my zipcode). I speculate many more will offer vaccines if Moderna is approved (e.g., my three closest pharmacies only do Moderna vaccines as it isn't worth stocking more than one and only the local Costco does all 3 and they are so busy, they are only doing adults due to the Federal contractor/healthcare mandate... Yet other pharmacies aren't busy, I cannot explain why other than some being mandated into vaccination are just doing J&J and the next closest pharmacy that does J&J is a further ten miles from me after I pass the Costco.)

So I consider this good news to vaccinate more kids. Hopefully Moderna's production on the new US lines and the South Korean Samsung factory ramp up nicely (as well as any others I'm forgetting about that are ramping up production) so the whole world can be vaccinated.

Lightsaber


More vaccines for kids will help.
In looking at the CDC data,
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... csovertime

You can see that Kids 5-15 have become the largest cases of Covid. This ultimately still translates into the largest danger for the unvaccinated 65+ crowd that has interaction with them.

My youngest is half way to fully vaccinated.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:20 pm

Boosters in cancer patients working, however for 44% who couldn't develop resistance, they still didn't. :cry2:

https://www.upi.com/amp/Health_News/202 ... 637157945/



casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Moderna has asked for Canadian approval for 6 to 11 year olds.
https://www.poandpo.com/in-sickness-and ... years-old/

In my opinion, we need more vaccines for kids. I live between LAX and LGB airports in SoCal and there isn't any vaccine appointment for young kids unil a week from now and I'm sure that they are only open as they went online for next Wednesday less than a half hour ago.

It could be because doctors are just too darn busy treating all the "delayed care" from their patients. I do not know of a local pediatrician who has the time to deal with the "emotion" of giving the vaccines. Relatively few pharmacies are even willing to do it (two independent, three CVS, and three Wallgreens within the distance they'll tell you about after I put in my zipcode). I speculate many more will offer vaccines if Moderna is approved (e.g., my three closest pharmacies only do Moderna vaccines as it isn't worth stocking more than one and only the local Costco does all 3 and they are so busy, they are only doing adults due to the Federal contractor/healthcare mandate... Yet other pharmacies aren't busy, I cannot explain why other than some being mandated into vaccination are just doing J&J and the next closest pharmacy that does J&J is a further ten miles from me after I pass the Costco.)

So I consider this good news to vaccinate more kids. Hopefully Moderna's production on the new US lines and the South Korean Samsung factory ramp up nicely (as well as any others I'm forgetting about that are ramping up production) so the whole world can be vaccinated.

Lightsaber


More vaccines for kids will help.
In looking at the CDC data,
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... csovertime

You can see that Kids 5-15 have become the largest cases of Covid. This ultimately still translates into the largest danger for the unvaccinated 65+ crowd that has interaction with them.

My youngest is half way to fully vaccinated.

We already know for 12-15 year olds, one dose is incredibly effective. I've read elsewhere (preliminary, no link) that one dose fades after 12 weeks.

https://m.jpost.com/health-science/isra ... ens-670956

Its looking like one jab in younger kids is really good. A relative sent me a draft of a paper that shows 7 days after jab #1, a 5-12 year old is better vaccinated than a 50 year old one week or one month after jab#2 (based on titers count). I'll share this link which has a doctor saying 10 days:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/young-k ... -safe.html

My youngest is already half way too. Locally the demand is insane. At 5am the Pharmacies open up appointments a week out (e.g., next Wednesday) and seriously, they fill up by 11am.

The resources are going into low vaccinated communities first (this area is very well vaccinated).

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:50 pm

Starting in January, all Disney cruises will require everyone age 5+ to be fully vaccinated.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurk ... 10ce8e4331

Personally, this is what I needed go on a cruise again! :hyper: I loved my last Disney cruise.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Starting in January, all Disney cruises will require everyone age 5+ to be fully vaccinated.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurk ... 10ce8e4331

Personally, this is what I needed go on a cruise again! :hyper: I loved my last Disney cruise.


Australia has delayed 5+ vaccination until the new year, keeping an eye to any adverse outcomes in countries that have already started vaccinating.

Once available, I expect that demand will be massive - certainly the parenting forum to which I belong is showing big pent-up demand for that age group. Australia already has a childhood vaccination program with around 95% coverage at age 5. I expect that having Covid vaccine available to this group will show similar uptake.

In NSW and Victoria, school closures on the back of positive cases are becoming an issue with parents, especially as with classmates having to isolate for 14 days. The majority of closed schools have been primary schools - covering age 5-12. RAT has been slow to roll out, and the availbility of vaccines for this age group will surely reduce the need for isolation.

There is so much pent-up demand for cruising here its not funny. Given that an early outbreak in Sydney last year directly resulted from a cruise ship (Ruby Princess) you'd think people woul dbe more wary.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Nov 17, 2021 11:29 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Starting in January, all Disney cruises will require everyone age 5+ to be fully vaccinated.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurk ... 10ce8e4331

Personally, this is what I needed go on a cruise again! :hyper: I loved my last Disney cruise.


Australia has delayed 5+ vaccination until the new year, keeping an eye to any adverse outcomes in countries that have already started vaccinating.

Once available, I expect that demand will be massive - certainly the parenting forum to which I belong is showing big pent-up demand for that age group. Australia already has a childhood vaccination program with around 95% coverage at age 5. I expect that having Covid vaccine available to this group will show similar uptake.

In NSW and Victoria, school closures on the back of positive cases are becoming an issue with parents, especially as with classmates having to isolate for 14 days. The majority of closed schools have been primary schools - covering age 5-12. RAT has been slow to roll out, and the availbility of vaccines for this age group will surely reduce the need for isolation.

There is so much pent-up demand for cruising here its not funny. Given that an early outbreak in Sydney last year directly resulted from a cruise ship (Ruby Princess) you'd think people woul dbe more wary.

I'm not surprised the demand is super high. Here appointments hit the Pharmacies web sites a week away for first jabs and are taken up before 11am (might be earlier, I don't have time to check).

The ability to avoid isolation is one consideration both my children were vaccinated the first day their age group had it allowed. For the 5-11 year olds, by day 3 the appointments were filling up 5 days in advance and by day 5, appointments have filled as I described.

But I know in low vaccinated areas, appointments sit... cest la vie.


The vaccine mandates for cruise lines are a step change in safety, in my opinion. This allows, with boosters, a return to normal.

At which point I take a breath and realize how frustrated my friends are with younger kids who cannot vaccinate them yet.

But this creates an (imperfect) barrier to coronavirus entering the homes. My pediatrician says the vast majority of infections are still unvaccinated adult to their own unvaccinated child. (we have great mask wearing in schools).

So hopefully... hopefully.

And yea, I read about breakthroughs, but then look at the plummet in Israel cases post 4 million boosters.

For the first time, I think we are seeing the light at the end if the tunnel. Unfortunately, for this winter, it might be a freight train due to the low vaccine rates.

But I personally know 30+ people who never would have been vaccinated if it wasn't for the cruise requirement. People, including myself, love to cruise.

Lightsaber
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:38 pm

Ok Everyone.
Go get your booster. I already got mine. I got Pfizer for my original two shots, and Moderna for my booster.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/fda-au ... /19990541/

The US Food and Drug Administration on Friday authorized boosters of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna Covid-19 vaccines for all adults, the companies said.
 
737307
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:48 pm

It is pretty clear by now that we don't have a "pandemic" but a "casedemic". As long as politicians keep fretting about "cases", we will have lockdowns for the rest of eternity, as there ALWAYS will be "cases" ( https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 021-11-19/ ).
And even in the event that 100% of the population has been triple vaccinated, hospitals can still be "overwhelmed" as the hospital capacity is typically below 0.1% of the population in most Western countries ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... pital_beds ).
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:27 pm

[quote="Dieuwer"]It is pretty clear by now that we don't have a "pandemic" but a "casedemic". As long as politicians keep fretting about "cases", we will have lockdowns for the rest of eternity, as there ALWAYS will be "cases" ( https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 021-11-19/ ).
And even in the event that 100% of the population has been triple vaccinated, hospitals can still be "overwhelmed" as the hospital capacity is typically below 0.1% of the population in most Western countries ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... pital_beds ).[/quote]
I would agree with you if 7% of the kids weren't sick 12+ weeks. We parents cannot deal with that and it will be weeks before the willing get a vaccine (about 1.5 million doses per week out if 28 million US kids eligible in 5-11). It is also about the hospitals. Once again they are having to deny care to those who need non critical hospital work. I am lucky to live in an exceptionally well vaccinated area. As of today 100% of my kids' playmates have at least 1 jab, so we can start taking more risks. This is despite needing an operation to kill a nerve misfiring due to a minor coronavirus infection.

Link on 40% of coronavirus getting long haul symptoms, note discussing mild cases:
https://news.yahoo.com/antibody-protect ... 30084.html

Great link on how 1 jab works wonderfully for a while, after a week in age 12 and under plus the 7% of kids being sick 12+ weeks. Hence why my kids I feel are safe enough:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cov ... -questions

Statistically, if we follow Israel's example vaccines help, they just have a reduced timeframe for full effectiveness. Bummer, but workable. I amazed at the cases, hospitalizations, and death reduction brought on by boosters.

You can find all that data here:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Unfortunately, we still have a pandemic that can be mitigated by vaccines. The book The Psychology of Pandemics by Steven Taylor is an excellent read to understand the confusion, fear, ignorance, conspiracy theories and denial of pandemics.

Just because of the long haul symptoms and their future costs, we must vaccinate more. People won't even wear masks anymore. No one will follow a lockdown. At least locally you have to be a vaccinated adult to go to a bar or club (only fair, no one social distances in a bar).

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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:22 pm

Austria to introduce compulsory vaccination in February.

Source: BBC TV news

It will be interesting to see if COVID-19 disease ceases to constitute a crisis in Austria in the months following February 2022.
 
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Noris
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:02 pm

DocLightning wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
Why vaccinate if you will never encounter the virus?


Why have smoke detectors if your house will never burn down?

You never know when you will encounter it and once you do, it is far too late to get vaccinated.

Do you know how many patients I've told they have COVID and suddenly they ask if they can get the vaccine? That's not how it works.

As for me, I just had my third dose. Within about a week I'll be able to have a full-on superspreader cough in my face and almost certainly won't get sick. The cost of this? My arm hurts today.



DocLightning, my arm hurts today as well after my booster jab and I have to say this is one of the best posts I have read on any of these forums recently. I hope that people read it and inwardly absorb.

I have lost a family member in their seventies to Covid, and two work colleagues, one in their fifties and one in their thirties. None of them had any underlying conditions.

I implore people to get vaccinated and get a booster jab if you can - not doing so is madness.

Rgds.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:07 am

Noris wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
Why vaccinate if you will never encounter the virus?


Why have smoke detectors if your house will never burn down?

You never know when you will encounter it and once you do, it is far too late to get vaccinated.

Do you know how many patients I've told they have COVID and suddenly they ask if they can get the vaccine? That's not how it works.

As for me, I just had my third dose. Within about a week I'll be able to have a full-on superspreader cough in my face and almost certainly won't get sick. The cost of this? My arm hurts today.



DocLightning, my arm hurts today as well after my booster jab and I have to say this is one of the best posts I have read on any of these forums recently. I hope that people read it and inwardly absorb.

I have lost a family member in their seventies to Covid, and two work colleagues, one in their fifties and one in their thirties. None of them had any underlying conditions.

I implore people to get vaccinated and get a booster jab if you can - not doing so is madness.

Rgds.

My condolences on your losses. I lost a coworker (unhealthy, age 65). My daughter lost a young (age 10) healthy classmate and the child's late 30s father succumbed and I know a healthy 15 year old who passed away.

I personally am boosted. I'm having to persuade friend by friend to boost. My older child has been vaccinated for 5 months, the younger will get the 2nd jab late in the Thanksgiving holiday.

I personally am getting out more thanks to the younger one being jabbed (I read a few journal papers and that age does better with one jab than my age with two).

What I notice is few wear masks. Exposure will be with a higher viral load. That means the unvaxed are going to be in trouble.

I feel for my friends with younger kids. They are quite concerned they cannot vaccinate them.

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