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Noris
Posts: 32
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2009 11:29 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 22, 2021 11:59 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Noris wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

Why have smoke detectors if your house will never burn down?

You never know when you will encounter it and once you do, it is far too late to get vaccinated.

Do you know how many patients I've told they have COVID and suddenly they ask if they can get the vaccine? That's not how it works.

As for me, I just had my third dose. Within about a week I'll be able to have a full-on superspreader cough in my face and almost certainly won't get sick. The cost of this? My arm hurts today.



DocLightning, my arm hurts today as well after my booster jab and I have to say this is one of the best posts I have read on any of these forums recently. I hope that people read it and inwardly absorb.

I have lost a family member in their seventies to Covid, and two work colleagues, one in their fifties and one in their thirties. None of them had any underlying conditions.

I implore people to get vaccinated and get a booster jab if you can - not doing so is madness.

Rgds.

My condolences on your losses. I lost a coworker (unhealthy, age 65). My daughter lost a young (age 10) healthy classmate and the child's late 30s father succumbed and I know a healthy 15 year old who passed away.

I personally am boosted. I'm having to persuade friend by friend to boost. My older child has been vaccinated for 5 months, the younger will get the 2nd jab late in the Thanksgiving holiday.

I personally am getting out more thanks to the younger one being jabbed (I read a few journal papers and that age does better with one jab than my age with two).

What I notice is few wear masks. Exposure will be with a higher viral load. That means the unvaxed are going to be in trouble.

I feel for my friends with younger kids. They are quite concerned they cannot vaccinate them.

Lightsaber


Lightsaber - Thank you for your condolences, they are appreciated. I send the same to you.

A member of my household is undergoing TKI (Tyrosine Kinase Inhibiting) therapy for a GIST so we were shielding for the first part of the pandemic until around February 2021, at this point we'd all had a jab and cases were falling. After our second jabs around May, we all started doing some of the things we did before the pandemic started, going out shopping and so on, although much less often, and always wearing a mask. Now we are all boosted and a week or two down the line, we'll probably start to increase the frequency with which we do this.

As you state, most people no longer wear masks, even though it's a simple and painless way to prevent and reduce transmission. I don't understand the selfish mentality of some people with their point blank refusals to wear one. Fortunately for the unvaccinated (and everybody else), mandatory vaccination is coming to the EU - likely sooner rather than later. Indirect mandatory vaccination is coming to the UK as well if you want to go abroad on holiday.

A few people I know have unvaccinated teenage and slightly younger kids, most of them have ended up with Covid and it has spread through their households quickly, with all of them having to isolate at some point. Luckily, the adults were double jabbed and recovered and so did the children, not all of them quickly though.

I'm looking forward to the end of this pandemic, although at this rate, I don't think it's going to be anytime soon.... 2023 at best, maybe?

Rgds.
 
art
Posts: 4403
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:34 am

Noris wrote:
I'm looking forward to the end of this pandemic, although at this rate, I don't think it's going to be anytime soon.... 2023 at best, maybe?

I fear that this disease will remain a serious problem in many parts of the world for a long, long time due to a lack of near universal vaccination. I also fear that the virus will evolve to produce forms that are either more contagious or result in more serious disease or both. My greatest fear is that it evolves into forms that produce serious disease in people hitherto protected by vaccination since that would undermine our best practical defence in our battle against this virus.

What is the position on herd immunity? Any signs of that appearing anywhere?
-
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5217
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:29 pm

75% of a population being fully vaccinated seems to greatly reduce infection and death rates, especially if people wear masks in crowds indoors. I would not use the H. I term however.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:24 pm

Noris wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Noris wrote:


DocLightning, my arm hurts today as well after my booster jab and I have to say this is one of the best posts I have read on any of these forums recently. I hope that people read it and inwardly absorb.

I have lost a family member in their seventies to Covid, and two work colleagues, one in their fifties and one in their thirties. None of them had any underlying conditions.

I implore people to get vaccinated and get a booster jab if you can - not doing so is madness.

Rgds.

My condolences on your losses. I lost a coworker (unhealthy, age 65). My daughter lost a young (age 10) healthy classmate and the child's late 30s father succumbed and I know a healthy 15 year old who passed away.

I personally am boosted. I'm having to persuade friend by friend to boost. My older child has been vaccinated for 5 months, the younger will get the 2nd jab late in the Thanksgiving holiday.

I personally am getting out more thanks to the younger one being jabbed (I read a few journal papers and that age does better with one jab than my age with two).

What I notice is few wear masks. Exposure will be with a higher viral load. That means the unvaxed are going to be in trouble.

I feel for my friends with younger kids. They are quite concerned they cannot vaccinate them.

Lightsaber


Lightsaber - Thank you for your condolences, they are appreciated. I send the same to you.

A member of my household is undergoing TKI (Tyrosine Kinase Inhibiting) therapy for a GIST so we were shielding for the first part of the pandemic until around February 2021, at this point we'd all had a jab and cases were falling. After our second jabs around May, we all started doing some of the things we did before the pandemic started, going out shopping and so on, although much less often, and always wearing a mask. Now we are all boosted and a week or two down the line, we'll probably start to increase the frequency with which we do this.

As you state, most people no longer wear masks, even though it's a simple and painless way to prevent and reduce transmission. I don't understand the selfish mentality of some people with their point blank refusals to wear one. Fortunately for the unvaccinated (and everybody else), mandatory vaccination is coming to the EU - likely sooner rather than later. Indirect mandatory vaccination is coming to the UK as well if you want to go abroad on holiday.

A few people I know have unvaccinated teenage and slightly younger kids, most of them have ended up with Covid and it has spread through their households quickly, with all of them having to isolate at some point. Luckily, the adults were double jabbed and recovered and so did the children, not all of them quickly though.

I'm looking forward to the end of this pandemic, although at this rate, I don't think it's going to be anytime soon.... 2023 at best, maybe?

Rgds.

I don't know when this pandemic will end. However, information like this link (loads of good information) confirms you notice that kids are sick for a long time with covid19. 7% for 12+ weeks:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cov ... -questions

I could not imagine dealing with that. I had a friend have his young (just turned 5) child come down with covid19 and it was not fun as he had to take time from work to nurse him to health.

To be clear, I still *always* wear a mask in public. I know it won't do me much good (I read about 30% with the KN95s I wear, but I'll take the viral load reduction and thus the reduced threat I might present to my kids.

Lightsaber
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4272
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:18 pm

art wrote:
Noris wrote:
I'm looking forward to the end of this pandemic, although at this rate, I don't think it's going to be anytime soon.... 2023 at best, maybe?

I fear that this disease will remain a serious problem in many parts of the world for a long, long time due to a lack of near universal vaccination. I also fear that the virus will evolve to produce forms that are either more contagious or result in more serious disease or both. My greatest fear is that it evolves into forms that produce serious disease in people hitherto protected by vaccination since that would undermine our best practical defence in our battle against this virus.

What is the position on herd immunity? Any signs of that appearing anywhere?
-


Viruses tend not to become much more virulent as killing their hosts will kill the virus and its ability to spread. You won't likely see an Ebola pandemic even if that was airborne. The reason being is that everyone gets very sick and will know it and it also has a very high mortality rate.

They can become more contagious but not all of that is because of the virus but other factors as well such as how are immune system reacts to it and how much viral load is produces. While the vaccinated and naturally immune can still spread it, their viral loads drop off much faster than those who are unvaccinated. Also with the immune response to the spike protein the immune system sends 20-30 types of antibodies to neutralize the protein. Its very unlikely (in fact basically impossible) for the spike protein to change all of its protein structure to evade the immune system entirely. It will evade partially and mild illness will persist (common cold) but 4 other coronaviruses do this and we don't bat an eye about those.

There is evidence that the 1889-1890 pandemic was of similar origin to Covid19 and if correct that is an endemic coronavirus today.

https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wile ... 7915.13889
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:23 pm

Europe has approved the child's Pfizer vaccine (ages 5 to 11):
https://www.cnet.com/health/eus-drug-re ... -children/

In Ireland, the age 5 years to 11 years are the age group with the most infections. Although the claim is mostly from the community and families, not the schools:
https://www.independent.ie/news/tony-ho ... 76476.html

In Southern California, age 5 to 11 children are now 27% of the confirmed cases. Note, I disagree with much of the "tone" of the article as at work its pretty obvious who wants the vaccines and who doesn't. My department is only very senior engineers and we're 100% boosted, much less not worrying about getting vaccinated. Oh well, as a Federal contractor, not a concern for much longer.
https://www.ocregister.com/2021/11/21/c ... -bay-area/
 
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c933103
Posts: 6008
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:47 pm

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2021/11/cuba ... h-research
Apparently Cuba claim kids down to age of two there are mostly vaccinated, with vaccines developed themselves
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2162
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:59 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Europe has approved the child's Pfizer vaccine (ages 5 to 11):
https://www.cnet.com/health/eus-drug-re ... -children/

In Ireland, the age 5 years to 11 years are the age group with the most infections. Although the claim is mostly from the community and families, not the schools:
https://www.independent.ie/news/tony-ho ... 76476.html

In Southern California, age 5 to 11 children are now 27% of the confirmed cases. Note, I disagree with much of the "tone" of the article as at work its pretty obvious who wants the vaccines and who doesn't. My department is only very senior engineers and we're 100% boosted, much less not worrying about getting vaccinated. Oh well, as a Federal contractor, not a concern for much longer.
https://www.ocregister.com/2021/11/21/c ... -bay-area/


In NSW, Australia, 0-11yo are approx. a third of new cases - vaccination is not currently availble for this group. A little over 20% of cases are from amongst the 6.4% of the 12+ population who are unvaccinated. Almost a third of cases are from amongst the 91% of the 12+ population with two (a tiny number 3) doses. Around 5% of cases are from the 3.4% of the 12+ population with a single dose.

Around 75% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Almost 70% of current cases are being identified in the 25% of the population not fully vaccinated.

Also, no fully vaccinated person under 80yo has died of Covid in the last month.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:47 pm

By the way, is there any research on vaccine's effect on long covid?
 
T4thH
Posts: 1371
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:36 am

c933103 wrote:
By the way, is there any research on vaccine's effect on long covid?


What I have seen, if you are vaccinated, the chance, to get long covid after a SARS COV 2 infection is minimal. So, the COVID infection stays a upper respiratory tract infection and did not get systemic (so it is just a cold).
If you have long covid and then get the vaccination, there seems to be an around 10 % chance, that you will recover earlier from long covid.

There is a treatment against long covid (BC 007), still in early stage of development/clinical trials against Glaucoma. Also Glaucoma is an autoimmune disease, there are the same autoimmune proteins found in long covid.
It was identified at the University Hospital in Erlangen, (first around 20 patients have now already received the treatment, the results of the first four treated is published); one i75 min infusion, all patients got complete long covid symptom free in less than 3 weeks (even in less than one week, there is an approvement to more or less to normal), first results were seen after few hours already, also blood cells got normal again and autoimmune proteins have disappeared and it can also be checked in the eyes, that everything is back to normal.
This was the nice part and now the bad news. BC 007 is in early stage of clinical trials, even safety data are not avaiblable. It will need years, till it will get the approvals.

Some sources (all in German, use your Google translator):
https://www.uk-erlangen.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/ansicht/detail/medikament-gegen-autoantikoerper-hilft-bei-long-covid/
https://www.fau.de/2021/09/news/wissenschaft/65-millionen-euro-vom-bmbf-fuer-long-covid-forschung/
https://www.nordbayern.de/region/heilerfolge-bei-long-covid-testpersonen-fur-erlanger-studie-gesucht-1.11422298
https://www.srf.ch/wissen/corona/coronavirus-long-covid-es-gibt-hoffnung-auf-heilung
https://www.uk-erlangen.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/ansicht/detail/long-covid-medikament-hilfe-fuer-weitere-betroffene/
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:55 am

T4thH wrote:
c933103 wrote:
By the way, is there any research on vaccine's effect on long covid?


What I have seen, if you are vaccinated, the chance, to get long covid after a SARS COV 2 infection is minimal. So, the COVID infection stays a upper respiratory tract infection and did not get systemic (so it is just a cold).
If you have long covid and then get the vaccination, there seems to be an around 10 % chance, that you will recover earlier from long covid.

There is a treatment against long covid (BC 007), still in early stage of development/clinical trials against Glaucoma. Also Glaucoma is an autoimmune disease, there are the same autoimmune proteins found in long covid.
It was identified at the University Hospital in Erlangen, (first around 20 patients have now already received the treatment, the results of the first four treated is published); one i75 min infusion, all patients got complete long covid symptom free in less than 3 weeks (even in less than one week, there is an approvement to more or less to normal), first results were seen after few hours already, also blood cells got normal again and autoimmune proteins have disappeared and it can also be checked in the eyes, that everything is back to normal.
This was the nice part and now the bad news. BC 007 is in early stage of clinical trials, even safety data are not avaiblable. It will need years, till it will get the approvals.

Some sources (all in German, use your Google translator):
https://www.uk-erlangen.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/ansicht/detail/medikament-gegen-autoantikoerper-hilft-bei-long-covid/
https://www.fau.de/2021/09/news/wissenschaft/65-millionen-euro-vom-bmbf-fuer-long-covid-forschung/
https://www.nordbayern.de/region/heilerfolge-bei-long-covid-testpersonen-fur-erlanger-studie-gesucht-1.11422298
https://www.srf.ch/wissen/corona/coronavirus-long-covid-es-gibt-hoffnung-auf-heilung
https://www.uk-erlangen.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/ansicht/detail/long-covid-medikament-hilfe-fuer-weitere-betroffene/

Wait, isn't COVID-19, even regardless of vaccination status, mostly a lower respiratory tract infection?
 
T4thH
Posts: 1371
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:13 am

c933103 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
c933103 wrote:
By the way, is there any research on vaccine's effect on long covid?


What I have seen, if you are vaccinated, the chance, to get long covid after a SARS COV 2 infection is minimal. So, the COVID infection stays a upper respiratory tract infection and did not get systemic (so it is just a cold).
If you have long covid and then get the vaccination, there seems to be an around 10 % chance, that you will recover earlier from long covid.

There is a treatment against long covid (BC 007), still in early stage of development/clinical trials against Glaucoma. Also Glaucoma is an autoimmune disease, there are the same autoimmune proteins found in long covid.
It was identified at the University Hospital in Erlangen, (first around 20 patients have now already received the treatment, the results of the first four treated is published); one i75 min infusion, all patients got complete long covid symptom free in less than 3 weeks (even in less than one week, there is an approvement to more or less to normal), first results were seen after few hours already, also blood cells got normal again and autoimmune proteins have disappeared and it can also be checked in the eyes, that everything is back to normal.
This was the nice part and now the bad news. BC 007 is in early stage of clinical trials, even safety data are not avaiblable. It will need years, till it will get the approvals.

Some sources (all in German, use your Google translator):
https://www.uk-erlangen.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/ansicht/detail/medikament-gegen-autoantikoerper-hilft-bei-long-covid/
https://www.fau.de/2021/09/news/wissenschaft/65-millionen-euro-vom-bmbf-fuer-long-covid-forschung/
https://www.nordbayern.de/region/heilerfolge-bei-long-covid-testpersonen-fur-erlanger-studie-gesucht-1.11422298
https://www.srf.ch/wissen/corona/coronavirus-long-covid-es-gibt-hoffnung-auf-heilung
https://www.uk-erlangen.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/ansicht/detail/long-covid-medikament-hilfe-fuer-weitere-betroffene/

Wait, isn't COVID-19, even regardless of vaccination status, mostly a lower respiratory tract infection?


No, it is systemic, or correctly, it seems to be for around 70% of all infected to be a systemic illness, It attacks the blood vessels/your blood cells (systemic), triggers the autoimmune system, which gets crazy (systemic), re-activates the silence Epstein Barr virus (95% are carrying, systemic), re-programs the neuronal cells (systemic) and inactivates them (the impact in IQ reduction is comparable to a stroke) attacks the epithet cells of your blood vessels (systemic) , let your unmatured granulocytes clump (-> strokes, infarcts, also systemic) e.g.
The "lower respiratory tract infection" is just a symptom of the systemic infection; as result of the infection of the epithetic cells and the systemic infection of the blood vessels in your lung, and the crazy systemic autoimmune answer, which kills you and destroys big areas of the lung tissue. Not Covid kills you, your own getting crazy immune system kills you and destroys your body.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:37 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Europe has approved the child's Pfizer vaccine (ages 5 to 11):
https://www.cnet.com/health/eus-drug-re ... -children/

In Ireland, the age 5 years to 11 years are the age group with the most infections. Although the claim is mostly from the community and families, not the schools:
https://www.independent.ie/news/tony-ho ... 76476.html

In Southern California, age 5 to 11 children are now 27% of the confirmed cases. Note, I disagree with much of the "tone" of the article as at work its pretty obvious who wants the vaccines and who doesn't. My department is only very senior engineers and we're 100% boosted, much less not worrying about getting vaccinated. Oh well, as a Federal contractor, not a concern for much longer.
https://www.ocregister.com/2021/11/21/c ... -bay-area/


In NSW, Australia, 0-11yo are approx. a third of new cases - vaccination is not currently availble for this group. A little over 20% of cases are from amongst the 6.4% of the 12+ population who are unvaccinated. Almost a third of cases are from amongst the 91% of the 12+ population with two (a tiny number 3) doses. Around 5% of cases are from the 3.4% of the 12+ population with a single dose.

Around 75% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Almost 70% of current cases are being identified in the 25% of the population not fully vaccinated.

Also, no fully vaccinated person under 80yo has died of Covid in the last month.

Very interesting information. Do you have a link? Breakthroughs are expected, in particular from sick children to parents (who doesn't hug a sick child?).

The vaccines work very well. Not perfectly, but well enough. If we can vaccinate the portions of the population with the majority of cases and boost the rest, we'll get through this.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
I found a link stating only 3% of those in Australia ICUs were vaccinated:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/c ... es-2299996

63% of cases unvaccinated.

The report's findings were in line with data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said in September that unvaccinated individuals were 11 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than those who were fully vaccinated.


Vaccines are working.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1371
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Europe has approved the child's Pfizer vaccine (ages 5 to 11):
https://www.cnet.com/health/eus-drug-re ... -children/

In Ireland, the age 5 years to 11 years are the age group with the most infections. Although the claim is mostly from the community and families, not the schools:
https://www.independent.ie/news/tony-ho ... 76476.html

In Southern California, age 5 to 11 children are now 27% of the confirmed cases. Note, I disagree with much of the "tone" of the article as at work its pretty obvious who wants the vaccines and who doesn't. My department is only very senior engineers and we're 100% boosted, much less not worrying about getting vaccinated. Oh well, as a Federal contractor, not a concern for much longer.
https://www.ocregister.com/2021/11/21/c ... -bay-area/


In NSW, Australia, 0-11yo are approx. a third of new cases - vaccination is not currently availble for this group. A little over 20% of cases are from amongst the 6.4% of the 12+ population who are unvaccinated. Almost a third of cases are from amongst the 91% of the 12+ population with two (a tiny number 3) doses. Around 5% of cases are from the 3.4% of the 12+ population with a single dose.

Around 75% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Almost 70% of current cases are being identified in the 25% of the population not fully vaccinated.

Also, no fully vaccinated person under 80yo has died of Covid in the last month.

Very interesting information. Do you have a link? Breakthroughs are expected, in particular from sick children to parents (who doesn't hug a sick child?).

The vaccines work very well. Not perfectly, but well enough. If we can vaccinate the portions of the population with the majority of cases and boost the rest, we'll get through this.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
I found a link stating only 3% of those in Australia ICUs were vaccinated:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/c ... es-2299996

63% of cases unvaccinated.

The report's findings were in line with data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said in September that unvaccinated individuals were 11 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than those who were fully vaccinated.


Vaccines are working.


Last I have heard few days ago in German TV,:
In Germany, it is around 14 times more likely, to end up in hospital/ICU as not vaccinated than as fully vaccinated person. Other information from the RKI (from 19-Nov-2021) says, the chance to get hospitalized is reduced by 90%, to get the COVID with symptoms by 75%. for fully vaccinated in comparison to non vaccinated persons.
https://www.rki.de/SharedDocs/FAQ/COVID-Impfen/FAQ_Liste_Wirksamkeit.html

One of both is including the age/sorted by age, the other overall. As in Germany the older ones are all pretty well vaccinated (and still have a higher chance to die as younger ones) the values are overall a little bit biased. There are many more older vaccinated than younger ones, where the risk, to end up in hospital is much lower.

So in the comparable age group for fully vaccinated and non vaccinated, it seems the chance to end up in hospital and to die is around 14 times lower.
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:22 pm

There is a new variant detected in South Africa which is causing alarm. I hope we are not going to shut travel down again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:38 pm

art wrote:
There is a new variant detected in South Africa which is causing alarm. I hope we are not going to shut travel down again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770

There are already announcements like "anyone who have been to these countries in the past 3 weeks, even vaccinated nationals, cannot enter the border"

But why in the thread about vaccine?

Also, we still have no information on strength of this variant.
 
art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:47 pm

c933103 wrote:
art wrote:
There is a new variant detected in South Africa which is causing alarm. I hope we are not going to shut travel down again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770

There are already announcements like "anyone who have been to these countries in the past 3 weeks, even vaccinated nationals, cannot enter the border"

But why in the thread about vaccine?

Also, we still have no information on strength of this variant.


Sorry if I posted incorrectly. The concern seems to be that people vaccinated with existing vaccines may be less protected from this variant.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:43 pm

art wrote:
c933103 wrote:
art wrote:
There is a new variant detected in South Africa which is causing alarm. I hope we are not going to shut travel down again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770

There are already announcements like "anyone who have been to these countries in the past 3 weeks, even vaccinated nationals, cannot enter the border"

But why in the thread about vaccine?

Also, we still have no information on strength of this variant.


Sorry if I posted incorrectly. The concern seems to be that people vaccinated with existing vaccines may be less protected from this variant.

A new spike protein means the prior antibodies, natural immunity or vaccine immunity should be far less effective. However, one would expect T-cells, which are excellent from AZ, Pfizer, and Moderna and the 2nd dose of J&J, to be of benefit. So only going off basic theory, more people will get infected, but the vaccinated should avoid the hospital.

Oh well, back to mask wearing. Cest la vie. Oh wait, I never stopped.

Lightsaber
 
StarAC17
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Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:06 pm

c933103 wrote:
art wrote:
There is a new variant detected in South Africa which is causing alarm. I hope we are not going to shut travel down again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770

There are already announcements like "anyone who have been to these countries in the past 3 weeks, even vaccinated nationals, cannot enter the border"

But why in the thread about vaccine?

Also, we still have no information on strength of this variant.


We don't and that is important.

I get that restricting travel will slow it down but its a good chance that this is basically everywhere already. Unless there is genealogical testing on every positive test (there isn't) once the variant is discovered it has probably been in most places.

Its up to natural selection on whether this variant has the evolutionary advantage to usurp delta as the dominant strain.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:22 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
art wrote:
There is a new variant detected in South Africa which is causing alarm. I hope we are not going to shut travel down again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770

There are already announcements like "anyone who have been to these countries in the past 3 weeks, even vaccinated nationals, cannot enter the border"

But why in the thread about vaccine?

Also, we still have no information on strength of this variant.


We don't and that is important.

I get that restricting travel will slow it down but its a good chance that this is basically everywhere already. Unless there is genealogical testing on every positive test (there isn't) once the variant is discovered it has probably been in most places.

Its up to natural selection on whether this variant has the evolutionary advantage to usurp delta as the dominant strain.


It’s likely already in way more places than they think.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:26 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
There are already announcements like "anyone who have been to these countries in the past 3 weeks, even vaccinated nationals, cannot enter the border"

But why in the thread about vaccine?

Also, we still have no information on strength of this variant.


We don't and that is important.

I get that restricting travel will slow it down but its a good chance that this is basically everywhere already. Unless there is genealogical testing on every positive test (there isn't) once the variant is discovered it has probably been in most places.

Its up to natural selection on whether this variant has the evolutionary advantage to usurp delta as the dominant strain.


It’s likely already in way more places than they think.


It's everywhere, so was Covid months before it was identified in Wuhan.
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:31 pm

Reading preceding posts, is it just dumb to cause great disruption to travel with attendant personal and economic problems when this new variant (dubbed omicron) has reached a large number of locations already - and if it has not will be getting there soon?
 
acavpics
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:02 pm

Who's ready for weeks of media freak-out over this new variant?
Remember the hype about the mu variant a couple months ago? Oh wait. Nothing happened there.
Rinse, repeat. Rinse, repeat.
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:12 pm

On CNN Moderna and AstraZeneca are reported to be investigating the effectiveness of their vaccines against the omicron variant.

How long might it take to tweak the most tweakable vaccines and to get them into production if that is seen as necessary?
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:33 pm

acavpics wrote:
Who's ready for weeks of media freak-out over this new variant?
Remember the hype about the mu variant a couple months ago? Oh wait. Nothing happened there.
Rinse, repeat. Rinse, repeat.


I don’t recall much hype about that at all. And you certainly didn’t start having flights banned from countries
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:12 am

art wrote:
On CNN Moderna and AstraZeneca are reported to be investigating the effectiveness of their vaccines against the omicron variant.

How long might it take to tweak the most tweakable vaccines and to get them into production if that is seen as necessary?

We still haven't get any boosters targeting N501Y and L452R mutations. Not even sure whether D614G was targeted. Even the booster doses being given out right now with exact same content as originals, still take months to approve and roll out.
 
Pi7472000
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 5:00 am

If the vaccines are not effective with this variant we will need travel lockdowns and lockdowns in general until they can develop a vaccine that is safe and effective against this new variant. We will need to follow the science, data and facts coming out of South Africa to make quick decisions to slow the spread and save lives. Let’s hope the vaccines and boosters can be modified quickly.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:21 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
If the vaccines are not effective with this variant we will need travel lockdowns and lockdowns in general until they can develop a vaccine that is safe and effective against this new variant. We will need to follow the science, data and facts coming out of South Africa to make quick decisions to slow the spread and save lives. Let’s hope the vaccines and boosters can be modified quickly.


:checkmark: I'm ready to lock down again. I have a guest in my home who is leaving Sunday, after that it's clink clink lockdown. I WFH, so I'm good. My quarantine measures were so good I was never exposed to COVID before being vaccinated (I tested multiple times negative for antibodies). Now I'm 3x Moderna (the best vaccine IMO). I had travel planned for January and February, but that looks iffy.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:39 am

lightsaber wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Europe has approved the child's Pfizer vaccine (ages 5 to 11):
https://www.cnet.com/health/eus-drug-re ... -children/

In Ireland, the age 5 years to 11 years are the age group with the most infections. Although the claim is mostly from the community and families, not the schools:
https://www.independent.ie/news/tony-ho ... 76476.html

In Southern California, age 5 to 11 children are now 27% of the confirmed cases. Note, I disagree with much of the "tone" of the article as at work its pretty obvious who wants the vaccines and who doesn't. My department is only very senior engineers and we're 100% boosted, much less not worrying about getting vaccinated. Oh well, as a Federal contractor, not a concern for much longer.
https://www.ocregister.com/2021/11/21/c ... -bay-area/


In NSW, Australia, 0-11yo are approx. a third of new cases - vaccination is not currently availble for this group. A little over 20% of cases are from amongst the 6.4% of the 12+ population who are unvaccinated. Almost a third of cases are from amongst the 91% of the 12+ population with two (a tiny number 3) doses. Around 5% of cases are from the 3.4% of the 12+ population with a single dose.

Around 75% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Almost 70% of current cases are being identified in the 25% of the population not fully vaccinated.

Also, no fully vaccinated person under 80yo has died of Covid in the last month.

Very interesting information. Do you have a link? Breakthroughs are expected, in particular from sick children to parents (who doesn't hug a sick child?).

The vaccines work very well. Not perfectly, but well enough. If we can vaccinate the portions of the population with the majority of cases and boost the rest, we'll get through this.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
I found a link stating only 3% of those in Australia ICUs were vaccinated:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/c ... es-2299996

63% of cases unvaccinated.

The report's findings were in line with data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said in September that unvaccinated individuals were 11 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than those who were fully vaccinated.


Vaccines are working.


The latest NSW case surveillance report is here https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectiou ... 211113.pdf

The most accessible front end for vaccination rates is here https://covidlive.com.au/nsw Covidlive was developed by a group of teens, but harnesses data fomr official sources around the country, adding algorithms to predict vax rate dates. vax rates have slowed in the last week, and 51 days to reach 95% 12+ vaxxed does unfotunately seem correct. although it's 91.47% today.

I can't find a reporting source for whole population vax rates, but it has been flagged in official daily updates a couple of times a week.
 
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OA260
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:55 am

art wrote:
There is a new variant detected in South Africa which is causing alarm. I hope we are not going to shut travel down again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770


Sky News reporting that 61 passengers on a flight from SA to Netherlands have tested positive and are in isolation.
 
Alfons
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:33 am

OA260 wrote:

Sky News reporting that 61 passengers on a flight from SA to Netherlands have tested positive and are in isolation.


Would have been actually nice to get the info as well how many of those ones are already vaccinated... .
 
Draken21fx
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:17 pm

OA260 wrote:
art wrote:
There is a new variant detected in South Africa which is causing alarm. I hope we are not going to shut travel down again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770


Sky News reporting that 61 passengers on a flight from SA to Netherlands have tested positive and are in isolation.


61 out of ~600?! Wow thats a lot
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:52 pm

Alfons wrote:
OA260 wrote:

Sky News reporting that 61 passengers on a flight from SA to Netherlands have tested positive and are in isolation.


Would have been actually nice to get the info as well how many of those ones are already vaccinated... .

I agree. Theoretically, which unfortunately is all we have to go on, the different spike protein should make it easier to get a nasty cold like covid19, but the T-cells from the multi-dose vaccines should help tremendously keeping it from being serious.

The news is hyperbolic, to say the least. This link is among the more sensible:
https://news.yahoo.com/virus-variant-st ... 18403.html
Hanage and other researchers said that vaccines will most likely protect against omicron, but further studies are needed to determine how much of the shots’ effectiveness may be reduced.
...
It turned out that spike-negative samples were surging across South Africa, suggesting that omicron had a competitive advantage over delta, which until now had been the dominant variant in the country.
...
Even if omicron does prove more transmissible than other variants, Hanage said that vaccines would most likely remain vital weapons against it, both by slowing down its spread and making it more likely that people who do get sick only have mild COVID-19 instead of needing to go to the hospital.


The article has much more good information, but I will let them get clicks and stay within fair use (sorry for the choppy quotes).

I'm not a viral expert, but it is very unlikely the T-cells won't still work Bummer on the antibodies as the article notes this variant probably evolved in a HIV patient where the virus had months of forced evolution (my words) with all the anti-bodies its seen. Unfortunately, we probably have an anti-body resistant variant. That means natural and vaccine immunity will be less.

T-cells appear sufficient to clear the disease (scientific paper, be ready for a detailed read): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7584424/

Quick summary of that article: get vaccinated because a vaccine induced T-cell response doesn't have the risks of naturally acquired immunity, even if antibodies are not present/effective.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:26 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:

In NSW, Australia, 0-11yo are approx. a third of new cases - vaccination is not currently availble for this group. A little over 20% of cases are from amongst the 6.4% of the 12+ population who are unvaccinated. Almost a third of cases are from amongst the 91% of the 12+ population with two (a tiny number 3) doses. Around 5% of cases are from the 3.4% of the 12+ population with a single dose.

Around 75% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Almost 70% of current cases are being identified in the 25% of the population not fully vaccinated.

Also, no fully vaccinated person under 80yo has died of Covid in the last month.

Very interesting information. Do you have a link? Breakthroughs are expected, in particular from sick children to parents (who doesn't hug a sick child?).

The vaccines work very well. Not perfectly, but well enough. If we can vaccinate the portions of the population with the majority of cases and boost the rest, we'll get through this.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
I found a link stating only 3% of those in Australia ICUs were vaccinated:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/c ... es-2299996

63% of cases unvaccinated.

The report's findings were in line with data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said in September that unvaccinated individuals were 11 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than those who were fully vaccinated.


Vaccines are working.


The latest NSW case surveillance report is here https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectiou ... 211113.pdf

The most accessible front end for vaccination rates is here https://covidlive.com.au/nsw Covidlive was developed by a group of teens, but harnesses data fomr official sources around the country, adding algorithms to predict vax rate dates. vax rates have slowed in the last week, and 51 days to reach 95% 12+ vaxxed does unfotunately seem correct. although it's 91.47% today.

I can't find a reporting source for whole population vax rates, but it has been flagged in official daily updates a couple of times a week.

I thank you for the data. However, I use Ourworldindata as they compare country to country on the same levels. Not 12+, but the whole population. All the breakthrough infections I know of in the last 3 months are child to parent and oh boy... My friends that have had to nurse sick children with Covid19 have had it rough. It has been frustrating seeing the vaccines pretty much withheld from coastal california areas (where there is demand) in an attempt to better vaccinate children in low vaccine areas (where there is not demand, so the vaccines seem to sit). e.g., locally, there is a week waiting list to vaccinate a child age 5-11 and you must make your appointment before 8am or the slots fill up (they become available online at 5am at CVS, I'm not sure when Wallgreens does it, it is later, but both seem to run out of nearby slots by 8am). Note: I'm helping friends, both my children have two jabs in them. :hyper:

An article on how demand on the coast for child's vaccines is high:
https://news.yahoo.com/californias-coas ... 12496.html
"In one sense, the higher levels of 5- to 11-year-old vaccination rates is somewhat a surrogate measure for vaccine acceptance at all ages," said UCLA epidemiologist Dr. Robert Kim-Farley.

Generally, the areas of California with the slowest rate of administering vaccines — rural Northern California and the Central Valley — are where COVID-19 hospitalization rates are the highest.


Here is a list of vaccinated by age for Orange County (I live and work in Los Angeles County, but I cannot find as good of data, so I take the neighboring county whose overall numbers seem to be similar):
https://www.ocregister.com/2021/11/26/c ... ses-given/

Cases are still predominately young adults (least likely group to be vaccinated), with a third in the 18-34, but the children are becoming a higher and higher fraction (latest, 15%):
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DC ... Group.aspx

So We'll get through this. The next step is to vaccinate the children to slow the spread.

Lightsaber
 
yonahleung
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:40 pm

Pellegrine wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
If the vaccines are not effective with this variant we will need travel lockdowns and lockdowns in general until they can develop a vaccine that is safe and effective against this new variant. We will need to follow the science, data and facts coming out of South Africa to make quick decisions to slow the spread and save lives. Let’s hope the vaccines and boosters can be modified quickly.


:checkmark: I'm ready to lock down again. I have a guest in my home who is leaving Sunday, after that it's clink clink lockdown. I WFH, so I'm good. My quarantine measures were so good I was never exposed to COVID before being vaccinated (I tested multiple times negative for antibodies). Now I'm 3x Moderna (the best vaccine IMO). I had travel planned for January and February, but that looks iffy.

Hong Kong has never exited a soft lockdown (We are still restricted to groups of 4 when gathering outdoors, while indoor gatherings do not have any limit if in a workplace, so much for following the science).
Pfizer is saying that it takes around 100 days to produce a vaccine targeting a new variant. So it won't be long till we have a variant specific vaccine as booster.
 
art
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:10 pm

yonahleung wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
Pfizer is saying that it takes around 100 days to produce a vaccine targeting a new variant. So it won't be long till we have a variant specific vaccine as booster.

Do you mean 100 days to create a modified vaccine in the lab or 100 days to start factory production?

I see the possibility of commercial and social life being hit again if there is a steep increase in visible infections. Unfortunately it is time for winter increased demands on the health systems of the northern hemisphere. Adding increased COVID-19 disease could trigger defensive lockdowns. UK average daily new cases is up >1000% compared to early summer as it is.

I hope that the omicron variant proves to be less contagious than delta so that it peters out where delta is also endemic.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:25 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I'm not a viral expert, but it is very unlikely the T-cells won't still work Bummer on the antibodies as the article notes this variant probably evolved in a HIV patient where the virus had months of forced evolution (my words) with all the anti-bodies its seen. Unfortunately, we probably have an anti-body resistant variant. That means natural and vaccine immunity will be less.


A lot of these changes in the spike protein seem to be immune-escape changes, but the issue is that the spike's job isn't just to evade the immune system. Its job is to 1) bind to the target cell and 2) fuse the viral membrane with the cell membrane...in that order. The Delta variant was shockingly good at this.

If this variant evolved in someone who had a weakened immune system then the big pressure would be evading the relatively weak antibody response, not enhancing person-to-person transmission.

Delta blew around the world and infected the vast majority of people. Right now, in most parts of the world, Delta case counts have plateaued at a relatively low level and in South Africa cases were pretty low. So if a new variant came to town, it doesn't even need to be be that transmissible. It just needs to evade the mucosal antibodies induced by prior infection with Delta.

But there are now cases being identified all around the world. I suspect it's been out for some time. We can't even be sure it originated in South Africa. It either has a short incubation time, in which case we would see a rapid rise in cases everywhere like we did with Delta or it has a longer incubation time, in which case it isn't as good at reproducing as Delta.

Not only that, but initial reports is that cases with this new variant have been mild. Vaccinated people often don't even have symptoms.

I hope this is going to wind up being a bit of a tempest in a teacup.

For now, get your vaccines. Get your third doses. I think that's the biggest thing you can do.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:19 am

Discuss the topic, not other users.
This is the vaccine thread. If reading your reply gives no indication of being on topic, it is likely to be deleted.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:32 am

DocLightning wrote:
Not only that, but initial reports is that cases with this new variant have been mild. Vaccinated people often don't even have symptoms.

I hope this is going to wind up being a bit of a tempest in a teacup.

For now, get your vaccines. Get your third doses. I think that's the biggest thing you can do.


Do the many genetic mutations mean that normal Covid testing is less effective at finding it?
The large proportion of Omicron cases in SA seems to indicate that it has been circulating there for a while.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:45 am

http://www.hkcd.com/hkcdweb/content/202 ... 08535.html
Hong Kong government: 1-dose vaccination rate at HK have reached 70.2%, but that's only an intermediate milestone, said it is hard to reopen border without 80-90% vaccination rate.
The government is specifically concerned that, vaccination rate is particularly low among elderly, especially those age over 80 only have 17% vaccinated. The government plan to launch mobile vaccination vehicles driving into housing estates and schools to promote vaccination.
The government is also considering extending the vaccination requirement to all public venues including theme parks, restaurants, stadiums, party rooms, museums, and such, as a way to promote vaccination, claim to follow the path of countries around the world.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:50 am

Francoflier wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
Not only that, but initial reports is that cases with this new variant have been mild. Vaccinated people often don't even have symptoms.

I hope this is going to wind up being a bit of a tempest in a teacup.

For now, get your vaccines. Get your third doses. I think that's the biggest thing you can do.


Do the many genetic mutations mean that normal Covid testing is less effective at finding it?
The large proportion of Omicron cases in SA seems to indicate that it has been circulating there for a while.

PCR test usually use a few specific part of the virus as index to identify whether the sample contain the target virus or not.
In South Africa, it is said that the mutated virus have one fragment, among other being used for the test, that didn't match the original genetic arrangement of the virus.
So, by using the that specific version of test, they can quickly identify whether a person is infected by checking other referenced fragments, and use the missing fragment to quickly identify whether the infected person was infected with Omicron or not, without having to do full genome sequencing.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:50 am

Wow, 17% in the elderly is super low, even by world standards. Here in NSW over 95% of 70yo+ are fully vaccinated.

I hope the mandates are successful. I hear anecdotes of people in Australia getting vaccinated so they aren’t excluded from the local pub.
 
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c933103
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:37 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Wow, 17% in the elderly is super low, even by world standards. Here in NSW over 95% of 70yo+ are fully vaccinated.

I hope the mandates are successful. I hear anecdotes of people in Australia getting vaccinated so they aren’t excluded from the local pub.

I think the main reason behind Hong Kong's low elderly vaccination rate is that, in the initial vaccination attempt the Hong Kong government tried to prioritize SinoVac vaccination over Pfizer vaccine. But SinoVac vaccine data were not published on international journal for review yet thus the expert panel in Hong Kong government have to review the data from SinoVac individually. However, after the vaccination campaign start, which the Hong Kong government start by vaccinating elderly and person with chronic syndromes, a number of death emerged. In the beginning period of the vaccination campaign, as Hong Kong is a city with only a few million residence, every single case of those vaccine-related death were being reported. Many of them didn't have direct link with the vaccine but there were no timely result that can say whether the death were indirectly related to the vaccines or not. A number of those cases involve things like myocarditis. When the report was shared and spread into Mainland China, Mainland China authority try to maintain the image of their vaccine by comparing differences in vaccination approaches in Mainland China against Hong Kong, pointing out that Mainland China with SinoVac and SinoPharm was only vaccinating healthy individual age between 18-64 at the time, and permission for use of them on elderly or people with chronic diseases weren't being approved yet. Hence the population take the message as "the vaccine is not goof for people age over 65 or with chronic diseases", even though Mainland China government made the approval of using these vaccines on elderly a few days after the announcement as the news wasn't being circulated widely.
Adding such background, onto the lack of local case = lack of immediate threat of being infected, many of them view vaccination as a greater danger to their life than the virus which have been kept out of the border susatinsially.
A while ago, as I shared in relevant thread, the Hong Kong government tried to form a team and attend elderly homes, to provide vaccination to anyone who they and their families didn't explicitly deny the vaccine, yet even such effort still only resulted in about one fourth of those elderly receiving it.
 
stratosphere
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:55 am

StarAC17 wrote:
art wrote:
How long does it take to develop a vaccine targeted at a particular variant and to produce billions of doses from the time it is identified as a variant of concern? Can it be done fast enough to seriously mitigate the effect of new, more contagious/virulent strains? I don't know but we might end up producing a vast amount of vaccine too late for it to be greatly beneficial. Indeed, the variant concerned might already be outperformed by a newer variant by the time the booster for the older version is available in large volumes.

On the tack of a booster, double vaccination reduces hospitalisation and death by a massive amount in people who nevertheless become infected. So why not just let them catch COVID-19? I understand that infection boosts antibody levels greatly. To me it would be better to get everyone in the world double vaccinated before adminstering a third dose. I believe that transmission is the most likely scenario for mutation of the virus ergo limiting transmission everywhere will give the most benefit to all us earthlings.


Development is easy but IIRC it would have to go through trials that would hold it up from being deployed to the masses right away. That would take six months or longer.

Odds are that the virus will become less virulent over time and 18 months is a long time to us but not for evolution, its next to nothing. However the less sick a virus makes its host the more successful its going to be.

It's hard to pinpoint whether it is in fact more virulent because there are so many factors at play. It's infecting children at a higher rate but it that because of the strain or the fact that children are the only demographic that hasn't been vaccinated.

In terms of the booster I agree, let those who have had two shots get the virus infected and get the booster from that. Long haul symptoms may be an issue to not permit this but then we need a better vaccine or treatments to combat this which the latter is lacking. Not everyone can get regeneron on the notice of a positive test like Joe Rogan did.

It makes my blood boil that the experts and media don't speak about natural immunity when studies show its robust. While vaccination does provide protection your body only recognizes the spike protein which can change but usually not enough to completely stamp out any immunity but the clock is ticking much faster as now there is evolutionary pressure on the spike protein to mutate to evade immunity. Natural infection would teach your body to recognize the whole virus and you would have more protection from it as the virus can change one protein or texture but can't change them all at once. Add in vaccination and you face minimal risk of severe illness from Covid. I theorize this happens for other infections all of the time you just don't get sick from the re-infection and unless you are tested you wouldn't know. There are probably thousands if not millions of people who are vaccinated for Covid, got the infection, showed no symptoms and never got tested and were none the wiser.

Public Health won't do this because it will create a surge on hospitals as vaccination rates aren't high enough but this is what the UK seems to be doing. Also the need for 3rd doses in the west is western greed, I stand by this opinion 100% and the US needs to get the rest of their population to get dose 1 before offering dose 3 to healthy people.

We know this crisis isn't over for anyone until its over for everyone and some people may need 3rd doses but not everyone. The US and especially Israel talking about a bi-annual shot while Asia and Africa have low rates is not constructive to end this pandemic especially if a variant comes along that renders the vaccines useless and we are back to March 2020 again.

Do any of you think the public is going to take that nicely? I see mass civil unrest and blame pointed right at the experts if this happens.


The experts and media not recognizing natural immunity makes me suspect of all of it. Now we have a new variant of concern and Pfizer and Moderna are rushing to tweak their vaccines to the new variant.

So what does this mean? We have to get a boost to the new variants that come out every other month? We need to stop chasing these vaccines and go with and invest more in therapeutics that go after and blocks the effects and keeps it from replicating and causing chaos in the body which will cover any variant that comes along.

My distrust of government and big pharma and chasing the all mighty dollar makes me wary of motives at this point.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:38 am

stratosphere wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
art wrote:
How long does it take to develop a vaccine targeted at a particular variant and to produce billions of doses from the time it is identified as a variant of concern? Can it be done fast enough to seriously mitigate the effect of new, more contagious/virulent strains? I don't know but we might end up producing a vast amount of vaccine too late for it to be greatly beneficial. Indeed, the variant concerned might already be outperformed by a newer variant by the time the booster for the older version is available in large volumes.

On the tack of a booster, double vaccination reduces hospitalisation and death by a massive amount in people who nevertheless become infected. So why not just let them catch COVID-19? I understand that infection boosts antibody levels greatly. To me it would be better to get everyone in the world double vaccinated before adminstering a third dose. I believe that transmission is the most likely scenario for mutation of the virus ergo limiting transmission everywhere will give the most benefit to all us earthlings.


Development is easy but IIRC it would have to go through trials that would hold it up from being deployed to the masses right away. That would take six months or longer.

Odds are that the virus will become less virulent over time and 18 months is a long time to us but not for evolution, its next to nothing. However the less sick a virus makes its host the more successful its going to be.

It's hard to pinpoint whether it is in fact more virulent because there are so many factors at play. It's infecting children at a higher rate but it that because of the strain or the fact that children are the only demographic that hasn't been vaccinated.

In terms of the booster I agree, let those who have had two shots get the virus infected and get the booster from that. Long haul symptoms may be an issue to not permit this but then we need a better vaccine or treatments to combat this which the latter is lacking. Not everyone can get regeneron on the notice of a positive test like Joe Rogan did.

It makes my blood boil that the experts and media don't speak about natural immunity when studies show its robust. While vaccination does provide protection your body only recognizes the spike protein which can change but usually not enough to completely stamp out any immunity but the clock is ticking much faster as now there is evolutionary pressure on the spike protein to mutate to evade immunity. Natural infection would teach your body to recognize the whole virus and you would have more protection from it as the virus can change one protein or texture but can't change them all at once. Add in vaccination and you face minimal risk of severe illness from Covid. I theorize this happens for other infections all of the time you just don't get sick from the re-infection and unless you are tested you wouldn't know. There are probably thousands if not millions of people who are vaccinated for Covid, got the infection, showed no symptoms and never got tested and were none the wiser.

Public Health won't do this because it will create a surge on hospitals as vaccination rates aren't high enough but this is what the UK seems to be doing. Also the need for 3rd doses in the west is western greed, I stand by this opinion 100% and the US needs to get the rest of their population to get dose 1 before offering dose 3 to healthy people.

We know this crisis isn't over for anyone until its over for everyone and some people may need 3rd doses but not everyone. The US and especially Israel talking about a bi-annual shot while Asia and Africa have low rates is not constructive to end this pandemic especially if a variant comes along that renders the vaccines useless and we are back to March 2020 again.

Do any of you think the public is going to take that nicely? I see mass civil unrest and blame pointed right at the experts if this happens.


The experts and media not recognizing natural immunity makes me suspect of all of it. Now we have a new variant of concern and Pfizer and Moderna are rushing to tweak their vaccines to the new variant.

So what does this mean? We have to get a boost to the new variants that come out every other month? We need to stop chasing these vaccines and go with and invest more in therapeutics that go after and blocks the effects and keeps it from replicating and causing chaos in the body which will cover any variant that comes along.

My distrust of government and big pharma and chasing the all mighty dollar makes me wary of motives at this point.

Vaccines are the lowest cost solution. They are cheap versus the therapeutics that work. The NIH does the best job of investigating options:
https://covid19.nih.gov/treatments-and- ... treatments

Treatments:
https://combatcovid.hhs.gov/possible-tr ... s-covid-19

Be careful what you suggest. e.g., Invectromin has really nasty side effects: https://covid19.nih.gov/news-and-storie ... -and-lives

There are tons of studies going on for alternatives, the issue is other treatments only have a few day window to keep people out of the hospitals:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04885530

If you worry about Pharma profits, just take AZ. The vaccines have done an incredible job reducing the strain on the hospitals. Vaccines reduce transmission 40% (note, I believe than numbers I previously posted are higher as this includes some less effective vaccines):
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/vaccines ... 50945.html

Historically, vaccines are the lowest cost solution. Since 40% of Covid19 survivors have long haul symptoms, you really don't want natural immunity:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MU1zT7LmdLw?vq=hd720

Natural immunity can be short lived. Some keep it long term, some lose it in as short as 25 days:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211 ... -last.aspx

Together, these data suggest that the initial magnitude of response and speed of decline vary with disease severity.

I had a mild case of Covid19, but I must have an opperation this week to kill a nerve damaged by the virus (symptoms started well before vaccination). In fact, all the doctors treating long haul symptoms recommend a vaccine 2 weeks after illness to minimize long haul symptoms (the virus can live on a long time, in particular in men).

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:58 am

stratosphere wrote:
So what does this mean? We have to get a boost to the new variants that come out every other month? We need to stop chasing these vaccines and go with and invest more in therapeutics that go after and blocks the effects and keeps it from replicating and causing chaos in the body which will cover any variant that comes along.

My distrust of government and big pharma and chasing the all mighty dollar makes me wary of motives at this point.


There is no indication that vaccines do not provide protection against the newer variants. They tend to, just in varying degrees.

As for looking for cures rather than prophylactics, aside from the banal evidence that it is better to prevent a disease than cure it, what makes you believe that science would have any better luck at finding a way to prevent this virus from replicating in any efficient way if it hasn't been able to do so for a number of other viruses circulating among humans since the dawn of modern medicine?

Also, you don't trust Big Pharma and their vaccines but would rather trust them with a hypothetical cure, knowing that they would make more money from a cure than a vaccine?
:confused:
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:25 am

stratosphere wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
art wrote:
How long does it take to develop a vaccine targeted at a particular variant and to produce billions of doses from the time it is identified as a variant of concern? Can it be done fast enough to seriously mitigate the effect of new, more contagious/virulent strains? I don't know but we might end up producing a vast amount of vaccine too late for it to be greatly beneficial. Indeed, the variant concerned might already be outperformed by a newer variant by the time the booster for the older version is available in large volumes.

On the tack of a booster, double vaccination reduces hospitalisation and death by a massive amount in people who nevertheless become infected. So why not just let them catch COVID-19? I understand that infection boosts antibody levels greatly. To me it would be better to get everyone in the world double vaccinated before adminstering a third dose. I believe that transmission is the most likely scenario for mutation of the virus ergo limiting transmission everywhere will give the most benefit to all us earthlings.


Development is easy but IIRC it would have to go through trials that would hold it up from being deployed to the masses right away. That would take six months or longer.

Odds are that the virus will become less virulent over time and 18 months is a long time to us but not for evolution, its next to nothing. However the less sick a virus makes its host the more successful its going to be.

It's hard to pinpoint whether it is in fact more virulent because there are so many factors at play. It's infecting children at a higher rate but it that because of the strain or the fact that children are the only demographic that hasn't been vaccinated.

In terms of the booster I agree, let those who have had two shots get the virus infected and get the booster from that. Long haul symptoms may be an issue to not permit this but then we need a better vaccine or treatments to combat this which the latter is lacking. Not everyone can get regeneron on the notice of a positive test like Joe Rogan did.

It makes my blood boil that the experts and media don't speak about natural immunity when studies show its robust. While vaccination does provide protection your body only recognizes the spike protein which can change but usually not enough to completely stamp out any immunity but the clock is ticking much faster as now there is evolutionary pressure on the spike protein to mutate to evade immunity. Natural infection would teach your body to recognize the whole virus and you would have more protection from it as the virus can change one protein or texture but can't change them all at once. Add in vaccination and you face minimal risk of severe illness from Covid. I theorize this happens for other infections all of the time you just don't get sick from the re-infection and unless you are tested you wouldn't know. There are probably thousands if not millions of people who are vaccinated for Covid, got the infection, showed no symptoms and never got tested and were none the wiser.

Public Health won't do this because it will create a surge on hospitals as vaccination rates aren't high enough but this is what the UK seems to be doing. Also the need for 3rd doses in the west is western greed, I stand by this opinion 100% and the US needs to get the rest of their population to get dose 1 before offering dose 3 to healthy people.

We know this crisis isn't over for anyone until its over for everyone and some people may need 3rd doses but not everyone. The US and especially Israel talking about a bi-annual shot while Asia and Africa have low rates is not constructive to end this pandemic especially if a variant comes along that renders the vaccines useless and we are back to March 2020 again.

Do any of you think the public is going to take that nicely? I see mass civil unrest and blame pointed right at the experts if this happens.


The experts and media not recognizing natural immunity makes me suspect of all of it. Now we have a new variant of concern and Pfizer and Moderna are rushing to tweak their vaccines to the new variant.

So what does this mean? We have to get a boost to the new variants that come out every other month? We need to stop chasing these vaccines and go with and invest more in therapeutics that go after and blocks the effects and keeps it from replicating and causing chaos in the body which will cover any variant that comes along.

My distrust of government and big pharma and chasing the all mighty dollar makes me wary of motives at this point.

They didn't. They didn't develop new booster for Alpha Beta Delta Gamma. They're just giving out the same vaccine to boost immunity level, if you are talking about the booster doses available now.

lightsaber wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

Development is easy but IIRC it would have to go through trials that would hold it up from being deployed to the masses right away. That would take six months or longer.

Odds are that the virus will become less virulent over time and 18 months is a long time to us but not for evolution, its next to nothing. However the less sick a virus makes its host the more successful its going to be.

It's hard to pinpoint whether it is in fact more virulent because there are so many factors at play. It's infecting children at a higher rate but it that because of the strain or the fact that children are the only demographic that hasn't been vaccinated.

In terms of the booster I agree, let those who have had two shots get the virus infected and get the booster from that. Long haul symptoms may be an issue to not permit this but then we need a better vaccine or treatments to combat this which the latter is lacking. Not everyone can get regeneron on the notice of a positive test like Joe Rogan did.

It makes my blood boil that the experts and media don't speak about natural immunity when studies show its robust. While vaccination does provide protection your body only recognizes the spike protein which can change but usually not enough to completely stamp out any immunity but the clock is ticking much faster as now there is evolutionary pressure on the spike protein to mutate to evade immunity. Natural infection would teach your body to recognize the whole virus and you would have more protection from it as the virus can change one protein or texture but can't change them all at once. Add in vaccination and you face minimal risk of severe illness from Covid. I theorize this happens for other infections all of the time you just don't get sick from the re-infection and unless you are tested you wouldn't know. There are probably thousands if not millions of people who are vaccinated for Covid, got the infection, showed no symptoms and never got tested and were none the wiser.

Public Health won't do this because it will create a surge on hospitals as vaccination rates aren't high enough but this is what the UK seems to be doing. Also the need for 3rd doses in the west is western greed, I stand by this opinion 100% and the US needs to get the rest of their population to get dose 1 before offering dose 3 to healthy people.

We know this crisis isn't over for anyone until its over for everyone and some people may need 3rd doses but not everyone. The US and especially Israel talking about a bi-annual shot while Asia and Africa have low rates is not constructive to end this pandemic especially if a variant comes along that renders the vaccines useless and we are back to March 2020 again.

Do any of you think the public is going to take that nicely? I see mass civil unrest and blame pointed right at the experts if this happens.


The experts and media not recognizing natural immunity makes me suspect of all of it. Now we have a new variant of concern and Pfizer and Moderna are rushing to tweak their vaccines to the new variant.

So what does this mean? We have to get a boost to the new variants that come out every other month? We need to stop chasing these vaccines and go with and invest more in therapeutics that go after and blocks the effects and keeps it from replicating and causing chaos in the body which will cover any variant that comes along.

My distrust of government and big pharma and chasing the all mighty dollar makes me wary of motives at this point.

Vaccines are the lowest cost solution. They are cheap versus the therapeutics that work. The NIH does the best job of investigating options:
https://covid19.nih.gov/treatments-and- ... treatments

Treatments:
https://combatcovid.hhs.gov/possible-tr ... s-covid-19

Be careful what you suggest. e.g., Invectromin has really nasty side effects: https://covid19.nih.gov/news-and-storie ... -and-lives

There are tons of studies going on for alternatives, the issue is other treatments only have a few day window to keep people out of the hospitals:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04885530

If you worry about Pharma profits, just take AZ. The vaccines have done an incredible job reducing the strain on the hospitals. Vaccines reduce transmission 40% (note, I believe than numbers I previously posted are higher as this includes some less effective vaccines):
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/vaccines ... 50945.html

Historically, vaccines are the lowest cost solution. Since 40% of Covid19 survivors have long haul symptoms, you really don't want natural immunity:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MU1zT7LmdLw?vq=hd720

Natural immunity can be short lived. Some keep it long term, some lose it in as short as 25 days:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211 ... -last.aspx

Together, these data suggest that the initial magnitude of response and speed of decline vary with disease severity.

I had a mild case of Covid19, but I must have an opperation this week to kill a nerve damaged by the virus (symptoms started well before vaccination). In fact, all the doctors treating long haul symptoms recommend a vaccine 2 weeks after illness to minimize long haul symptoms (the virus can live on a long time, in particular in men).

Lightsaber

From some TV/Radio source I have came across last time, Japanese government is going to give preventive treatment to asympomatic/presympomatic/mild patients, especially at-risk groups, to reduce their chance of becoming severe, and to save on medical resource
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASPBQ3VCLPBLULBJ00V.html
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:30 pm

Some hints on vaccine effectiveness from Botswana.
https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/sh ... NewsSearch

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+dose%29

90% of the hospitalizations are unvaccinated (1st link) in a country that is 20% fully vaccinated (2nd link). One would assume the elderly and professions more likely to be exposed would be vaccinated (hopefully). So this implies vaccines are working, if imperfectly. So while one would hope for better vaccine effectiveness, at least the vaccines, at first glance, have at least 50% chance to keep people out of the hospital.


Note: Botswana has been administering SinoVac, so I'm not certain how good of a picture this gives for the functioning of Western vaccines. I'm of the opinion that the attenuated virus vaccines (SinoVac, SinoPharm, Covaxin) need to be a 3 dose regimen to start with as in the UAE and Chile.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/botswan ... 2021-07-16

Data from Chile noting how boosters reduced hospitalizations:
https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... chile.html

So it is quite possible that current vaccines are good enough, however if you can get a booster, I highly recommend it. The main advantage of vaccines is they give you time. The body has a head start on defenses. We will have a winter wave, do you really want to be in a long line for some treatment. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. The book "The Psychology of Pandemics" by Steven Taylor predicted before this pandemic that social media would be used as an echo chamber of anti-vax sentiment with risks of vaccines exaggerated and their benefits minimized.

I'm boosted and I will be living the boosted lifestyle. errr... after this week. (I had the virus and it damaged a nerve that must be killed by an operation.) My prior post I linked how 40% of people who have coronavirus get long haul (and my coronavirus was incredibly minor).

We obviously need to ship out more vaccines to help vaccinate the world. We'll probably need a variant booster. :yawn: If we assume we need a vaccine every six months, the Western countries are losing immunity (need vaccination rate of an average 0.5 doses/day to maintain immunity, see link below). The lack of willing vaccination in the West is an issue. The lack of vaccines for some countries is also an issue. The only way I see out is a far higher level of vaccination, even if it doesn't stop cases, it at least gives us time to develop the next vaccine.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... +Union~GBR


Lightsaber

ps, read the link on Chile for SinoVac (also called Coronavac) effectiveness:
Piñera said using the new booster doses had resulted in fewer hospitalizations, with Sinovac reaching an effectiveness of 88%, Pfizer of 87%, and AstraZeneca of 96% in this criteria.

CoronaVac (also known as Sinovac) booster shots' effectiveness in fewer contagions increased from 56% to 80%, Pfizer's from 56% to 90%, and AstraZeneca's from 56% to 93%, the government study detailed.


In other words, SinoVac is maybe 10% less effective against Omicron than it was against prior variants. That isn't the doom and gloom the media is reporting. Perhaps it will be worst against a "filthy cold" as that NIH health authority noted (sorry, I was watching online and didn't catch the name).
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:26 pm

https://kahoku.news/articles/20211116khn000045.html
https://kahoku.news/articles/20211129khn000033.html
A local newspaper report a story who continue to feel unwell for months after taking the vaccine, including headache, tiredness, and fever, and get message from across the nation they or their relatives are experiencing something similar, making them unable to attend school or work. Medical check result claim they have no abnormalities and cannot establish relationship with the vaccination. The government claim due to variation in symptoms it's hard to recognize them all as vaccine's side effect and said it can only be treated symptoms by symptoms.
The article also include comment that booster vaccination promotion shouldn't only emphasis on their safety and merit, but should also recognize their side effect and risk, and consider how to approach the booster vaccination process objectively.

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20211117/k ... 40/199000c
As of October 24, Japan have 1325 people recorded died after vaccination. 99%, or 1317, of those death, have their death listed as "cannot determine whether the death have relationship with vaccination or not". 84% of those deaths are elderly.
 
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Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:38 am

Merck's Molnupiravir anti-viral drug has now been recommended for FDA approval by a panel of 23 experts, albeit narrowly after later analysis shows that the drug is only 30% effective at preventing hospitalization and death from COVID-19 in people at high risk of severe disease, and carries the risk of potential mutagenic effects:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11 ... g-experts/

In a 13-to-10 vote, advisors for the Food and Drug Administration narrowly supported authorizing Merck's Thor-inspired antiviral pill molnupiravir for use against severe COVID-19.

The FDA's panel of advisors—the Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee (AMDAC)—struggled in an all-day meeting Tuesday to weigh the drug's risks, its modest benefits, and the limited available data. The latest analysis suggests that the pill is only 30 percent effective at preventing hospitalization and death from COVID-19 in people at high risk of severe disease. Meanwhile, the drug has the worrisome potential to cause mutations, leading advisors to agonize over whether it should be offered to pregnant people.


Looks like a swing and a miss for Merck again, but in the absence of any other alternatives, I suspect Molnupiravir will only ever be authorized for very limited circumstances where people have no other good treatment options, especially given the drug’s safety issues. The bigger one to watch would be Pfizer's upcoming antiviral drug, which appears to be much more effective and has a better safety profile which would make it more ideal for most situations.
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