Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:05 pm

NovaVax to apply with FDA within days (I guess that means right after Christmas). They have also shipped 20 million doses to Indonesia and first doses administered in Indonesia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

I'll fully admit to having been a snarky cynic on NovaVax due to their prior delays. However, they seem to have produced a great vaccine that preliminary indications are it is a good Omicron booster. What I haven't seen is any crossover booster data (e.g., 2x Sinovac/Pharm to NovaVax).

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1031062793

Unfortunately, finding good information on NovaVax (e.g., weekly production rate) is tough among all the stock pumping.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:58 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/14/who-omicron-spreading-at-unprecedented-rate
WHO Tedros: "WHO is not against boosters. We’re against inequity." in comment against countries launched booster program for their entire adult population


The WHO could do something for a change, like vaccination missions to countries where governments are inept.

This has nothing to do with rich countries hoarding vaccines.

I agree it is inept governments. They seem to be trying to blame anyone but themselves, but that is just my opinion.

But them there come problems:
- How to deal with governments that simply deny the existence of coronavirus, or deny any foreign impoet due to the risk of virus contamination in the name of coronavirus transmission risk, or deny vaccination for religious reasons, for example Turkmenistan, North Korea, and Taliban government of Afghanistan, and what about countries or government where WHO refuse to admit its existence, for example Taiwan, and what about regions where there are ongoing civil war with area under control by governments that are not being officially recognized, for example Ethiopia and Myanmar.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 6174
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:01 pm

descl wrote:
If you look at the figures for Chile, boosted are 84% less likely to get covid, compared to 2 dose people, and 90% compared to non vaccinated, so yes, boosters do help cutting transmission, and that´s probably the main reason why Delta wave in Chile was so soft.
Regarding its effect on severe covid, it does help a lot in preventing hospital saturation:
ICU in Chile (+5 years old):
- 62% are non-vaccinated, out of 11%
- 27% are 2 doses, out of 40%
- 11% are boosted, out of 49%


It's a very detailed and interesting report full of great statistics. I do still note that overall ICU admission and death have remained somewhat constant overall since dropping drastically after the first vaccination campaign and that boosters have not seem to made a great difference yet in that figure, except maybe stopping it from going up again. It does show a marked effect in the higher age groups however, which is where I believe boosters are the most useful.

In terms of bang for our buck however, we seem to get a lot more from the first 2 doses than from the booster in terms in numbers improvement. There is a law of diminishing returns at play here even if keeping antibody levels high through repeated courses is likely beneficial to the elderly.

Chile did admirably well with vaccinations but for many other nations, boosters are not going to change the overall picture much as long as the vaccination rate remains low. Not to mention that people reluctant to get the first doses are even less likely to go for a third, fourth, etc.

lightsaber wrote:
If they are not taken, that is on them at this point.


I also wish that was the case. But that's the thing. It's not just on them, it's on everyone. We're all paying the price for the vast majority of unvaccinated crowding hospitals, either through taxes, insurance premiums, the inability to obtain lesser medical care and the endless cycle of constraints on our lives.

I would have no problem with the unvaccinated if they were made to pay fully out of pocket for their Covid care and were given lower priority for hospital admission.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:50 pm

Francoflier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If they are not taken, that is on them at this point.


I also wish that was the case. But that's the thing. It's not just on them, it's on everyone. We're all paying the price for the vast majority of unvaccinated crowding hospitals, either through taxes, insurance premiums, the inability to obtain lesser medical care and the endless cycle of constraints on our lives.

I would have no problem with the unvaccinated if they were made to pay fully out of pocket for their Covid care and were given lower priority for hospital admission.

The subject of the sentence seems to be national governments haven't moved to acquire sufficient vaccines, when there are excess supply in vaccines.
But I don't think that's really true given the vaccination production rate, indicating that even if there might be vaccines left untaken, that could still be transient until demand side can pick up.

The world is now 57% 1-dose vaccinated according to Our world in data. With vaccine delivery continues, hopefully most of those will be fully vaccinated soon. But in contrast, US is now only 61% fully vaccinated, and the trend seems to be relatively flat. In other words, There exists a chance that US vaccination rate is going to fall behind world average, if the current trend continues, according to my opinion and observation on the trend. This will be a significant point which is going to mark the US as dragging behind the world's average vaccination rate.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:15 pm

A small study on various immunities. I need to emphasize small.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Only one in seven who recovered from Delta have antibodies effective vs. Omicron.

Only 9 of 20 with 2-dose Pfizer had enough antibodies to be effective vs. Omicron

Only 1 of 10 with 2-dose Moderna had effective antibodies.

What struck me is how poor prior exposure faired. This, to myself, indicates only boosted matters.

Francoflier wrote:
I would have no problem with the unvaccinated if they were made to pay fully out of pocket for their Covid care and were given lower priority for hospital admission.

I believe triage points will be added for unvaccinated.

It is frustrating how few are willingly vaccinating. In the USA, since late April, vaccines have been walk up (for adults).

I have a dear relative leading a coronavirus ward and friends working other coronavirus wards and this pains me for their sake. I know how bad the winter will be for the coronavirus wards. I personally haven't convinced anyone to vaccinate in six months (before then, I had success). Oh well...

I wish everyone a Happy Holidays. As someone who was watching my father in the ICU (for an auto accident) years ago through the holidays, I personally know how much worrying about a loved one spoils the fun. With such a fast spreading variant, I'm afraid the new year won't be as festive.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:42 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tudy-shows
Study in Hong Kong find that, even after receiving 3rd dose booster of same type, SinoVac still cannot provide sufficient antibody level against Omicron.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid Vaccine and Virus - Heart problems

Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:57 am

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59615005

a third booster prevents around 75% of people getting any Covid symptoms.

Good, not great news. To myself, this means the vaccines are now a 3 dose course.

With SII with 500 million doses on hand and looking to cut production by 125 million doses, there is supply, not demand:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 1.html/amp

Lightsaber

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ing_31.pdf
Relevant paragraphs:
o There is currently no evidence of increased reinfection risk at the population
level, but preliminary analyses indicate approximately three- to eight-fold
increased risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant.

o The Variant Technical Group reviewed the available neutralisation data from
published international and internal UK studies (UK Health Security Agency,
University of Oxford). UK data will be published as soon as possible and cited
here when available. Across 5 preliminary live virus studies (3 international
and 2 UK), there was a 20- to 40-fold reduction in neutralising activity by
Pfizer 2-dose vaccinee sera for Omicron compared to early pandemic viruses.
There was at least 10 fold loss of activity when compared to Delta; in both UK
studies this was over 20 fold. A greater reduction in activity was seen for AZ 2-
dose sera, and for a high proportion of such sera, neutralising activity fell
below the limit of quantification in the assay. An mRNA booster dose resulted
in an increase in neutralising activity irrespective of primary vaccination type,
including an increase in the proportion of samples that were above the limit of
quantification. This is true regardless of which vaccine was used for the
primary course. These data are from the early period after the booster and
data are urgently required on the durability of neutralising activity

o early estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection
find a significantly lower VE for against Omicron infection compared to Delta
infection. Nevertheless, a moderate to high vaccine effectiveness of 70 to 75%
is seen in the early period after a booster dose. With previous variants,
vaccine effectiveness against severe disease, including hospitalisation and
death, has been higher than effectiveness against mild disease. It will be a
few weeks before effectiveness against severe disease with Omicron can be
estimated, however based on this experience, this is likely to be substantially
higher than the estimates against symptomatic disease. The duration of
restored protection after mRNA boosting is not known at this juncture

The 70-75% efficiency against symptomatic infection is based on mRNA vaccine booster. Didn't include data of AZ/J&J booster.
Also, the report now say there are 5 different studies all showing the antibody from current vaccines are 20-40 times weaker against Omicron.
And 2-dose AZ's performance against Omicron fell below quantifiable lower bound.
----
Edit: The report also mentioned "If Omicron continues to grow at the present rate, Omicron is projected to reach parity with Delta
(equal proportion of cases) in mid-December." The estimation was apparently being made earlier this week
Given almost all the cases in the UK recently were Delta, that would mean Omicron is expected to reach half of all UK case in this coming week.
And they are using an effective reproduction number of 3.7 (95%CI 3.3-4.2), as in after taken into account the current social restriction and vaccination situation.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ing-33.pdf
33rd technical briefing from the UK government
p.24
People received Pfizer as their third dose booster, after 10+ weeks, appears to have their vaccine efficiency dipping to ~50% too..
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 15335
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:57 pm

Belgian guy got 8 shots, I hope they test his immunity : https://www.latestly.com/world/covid-19 ... 84580.html

I heard on the France Info radio that some scientists (didn't catch which group exactly) was recommending shortening the eligibility delay for the 3rd dose to 3 months.

If so, should I be looking for a 4th dose 3 months after the third ?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Dec 24, 2021 4:18 pm

Aesma wrote:
Belgian guy got 8 shots, I hope they test his immunity : https://www.latestly.com/world/covid-19 ... 84580.html

I heard on the France Info radio that some scientists (didn't catch which group exactly) was recommending shortening the eligibility delay for the 3rd dose to 3 months.

If so, should I be looking for a 4th dose 3 months after the third ?

One study says the booster is only effective for 10 weeks.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-lon ... dy-2021-12

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said protection against symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the variant dropped from 70% to 45% after a Pfizer booster for those initially vaccinated with the shot developed by Pfizer with BioNTech.

In the same analysis published Thursday, the agency found the effectiveness of Moderna's booster paired with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine held at 70 to 75% for up to 9 weeks, though not many people in the study received this regimen, which could affect the accuracy of the finding.


This isn't good news. Errr... My booster was 11 weeks ago. :cry2:

Lightsaber
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5370
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:26 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium


The research undertaken at the NIH in Bethesda, Maryland, is based on extensive sampling and analysis of tissues taken during autopsies on 44 patients who died after contracting the coronavirus during the first year of the pandemic in the U.S.


A medium length article with a lot of technical information. The article discusses the relevance of this for long Covid and other lingering post acute injections.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 126
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Dec 26, 2021 3:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Belgian guy got 8 shots, I hope they test his immunity : https://www.latestly.com/world/covid-19 ... 84580.html

I heard on the France Info radio that some scientists (didn't catch which group exactly) was recommending shortening the eligibility delay for the 3rd dose to 3 months.

If so, should I be looking for a 4th dose 3 months after the third ?

One study says the booster is only effective for 10 weeks.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-lon ... dy-2021-12

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said protection against symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the variant dropped from 70% to 45% after a Pfizer booster for those initially vaccinated with the shot developed by Pfizer with BioNTech.

In the same analysis published Thursday, the agency found the effectiveness of Moderna's booster paired with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine held at 70 to 75% for up to 9 weeks, though not many people in the study received this regimen, which could affect the accuracy of the finding.


This isn't good news. Errr... My booster was 11 weeks ago. :cry2:

Lightsaber

That means that everyone should just hold the fire on the booster until there is an active Omicron outbreak...
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:22 pm

yonahleung wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Belgian guy got 8 shots, I hope they test his immunity : https://www.latestly.com/world/covid-19 ... 84580.html

I heard on the France Info radio that some scientists (didn't catch which group exactly) was recommending shortening the eligibility delay for the 3rd dose to 3 months.

If so, should I be looking for a 4th dose 3 months after the third ?

One study says the booster is only effective for 10 weeks.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-lon ... dy-2021-12

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said protection against symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the variant dropped from 70% to 45% after a Pfizer booster for those initially vaccinated with the shot developed by Pfizer with BioNTech.

In the same analysis published Thursday, the agency found the effectiveness of Moderna's booster paired with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine held at 70 to 75% for up to 9 weeks, though not many people in the study received this regimen, which could affect the accuracy of the finding.


This isn't good news. Errr... My booster was 11 weeks ago. :cry2:

Lightsaber

That means that everyone should just hold the fire on the booster until there is an active Omicron outbreak...

But you also need 2 weeks for immune system to ramp up antibody level after vaccination.
And doubling time of ~1.5 days mean 1000x people can be infected in the timespan of 2 weeks.

Seriously just start making variant specific booster already
 
T4thH
Posts: 1582
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:31 pm

yonahleung wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Belgian guy got 8 shots, I hope they test his immunity : https://www.latestly.com/world/covid-19 ... 84580.html

I heard on the France Info radio that some scientists (didn't catch which group exactly) was recommending shortening the eligibility delay for the 3rd dose to 3 months.

If so, should I be looking for a 4th dose 3 months after the third ?

One study says the booster is only effective for 10 weeks.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-lon ... dy-2021-12

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said protection against symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the variant dropped from 70% to 45% after a Pfizer booster for those initially vaccinated with the shot developed by Pfizer with BioNTech.

In the same analysis published Thursday, the agency found the effectiveness of Moderna's booster paired with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine held at 70 to 75% for up to 9 weeks, though not many people in the study received this regimen, which could affect the accuracy of the finding.


This isn't good news. Errr... My booster was 11 weeks ago. :cry2:

Lightsaber

That means that everyone should just hold the fire on the booster until there is an active Omicron outbreak..
.

Sorry, this is wrong. Your body will spend around 10 to 14 days, to start the production of antibodies again after the booster shot. Additional, antibodies are not the only answer, your body has. Also important is the T-cell answer, which will be also induced by the booster shot and will give you the long time protection.

Omicron is extrem infective, several times more infective than all other Covid variants.
The highest R0 has till now measels with around 16 to 18 (so, one infected in average will, when the population is unprotected/not vaccinated, infect 16 to 18). The R0 for Delta is around 4, which is already extremely high. The original Covid variant was at 2 to 2.5.

Rt is the value, how many will be infected, when a part of the population is already vaccinated/cured e.g. or when face mask are in use e.g.
This is of course lower, than the R0 value. This is now the case for Covid.
The Rt value seems to be for Omicron around 3 to 4; pretty sure, the R0 for Omicron is above a value of 12, perhaps it is even as high or even higher than measels.

That means that everyone should just hold the fire on the booster until there is an active Omicron outbreak..

If you will wait, till Omicron numbers starts to explode...You will recognize, the numbers are exploding, you will try to get a date for the vacccination, OK, let us say 5 days. 10 to 14 days, till you body is starting to get the benefit of the booster vaccination, so you are already even in best case more than two weeks delayed...
In two weeks, you are already in the middle of the Omicron wave in your country and it is likely, you are just to late.-> you have sucked.
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22307
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:03 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I would have no problem with the unvaccinated if they were made to pay fully out of pocket for their Covid care and were given lower priority for hospital admission.


For the first part of your proposal, I'm afraid I have to disagree. You're dealing with a group of people who believe that it won't happen to them. The threat of death after prolonged suffering hasn't convinced them, so why do you think that the additional threat of bankruptcy will? And under current laws and regulations, the hospital has to care for them, so somebody has to pay for it. These folks can't cough up hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars, so the hospital has to balance its books with revenue from patients who are insured and who can pay their bills. So you're just shifting the burden from insurance to the hospitals. Besides, I feel like a lot of these folks aren't even insured.

What I would personally support would be crisis standards of care for those who are eligible to be vaccinated but haven't been. Examples of these standards would be automatic DNR/DNI status and no ICU admission. However, this might run afoul of EMTALA and multiple ethical standards of care.

lightsaber wrote:
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said protection against symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the variant dropped from 70% to 45% after a Pfizer booster for those initially vaccinated with the shot developed by Pfizer with BioNTech.


But this is how this is going to go. This is a respiratory coronavirus. There is likely to be minimal sterilizing immunity. So who cares if you've had three doses and get a symptomatic infection? You're going to get a cold. Unpleasant, but not life-threatening. Memory immunity lasts decades and repeated exposure to future variants will help to mature and broaden the immune responses that we get.

I think that a lot of health authorities have forgotten that infection itself isn't that important in the post-vaccine era, cases themselves aren't, either. What's important is moderate-to-severe disease that can lead to hospitalization.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 15335
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:32 am

Francoflier is in France, here by default people are insured and won't pay anything for hospitalization. The threat of having to pay might work on some, if the bill appears hefty enough, but it's very unlikely to be legal. What happens when/if hospitals are full is another story, the usual plan is to prioritize people who have better chances of making it. Clearly now with the vaccine having been available to all, this poses a dilemma : should a triple vaccinated 70yo or an unvaccinated 40yo be prioritized for the few remaining resources ?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:17 am

Aesma wrote:
Francoflier is in France, here by default people are insured and won't pay anything for hospitalization. The threat of having to pay might work on some, if the bill appears hefty enough, but it's very unlikely to be legal. What happens when/if hospitals are full is another story, the usual plan is to prioritize people who have better chances of making it. Clearly now with the vaccine having been available to all, this poses a dilemma : should a triple vaccinated 70yo or an unvaccinated 40yo be prioritized for the few remaining resources ?

The US has a triage point system that has been around for decades with a few changes.
Points are bad. I had an uncle kicked out of the hospital as he had too many points (5 points for age and heart issues and that day everyone who had been in the hospital 3+ days with 5+ points went home).
So your example is a 70 year old or 4 points for age. Since no other heath conditions, 4 points.
There is talk of adding the unvaccinated at 3 points, one dose as 2, and unboosted as 1 point. In your hypothetical scenario, both these people would likely remain in the hospital unless they had other points.
Heart trouble 1 to 5 points
Obesity 1 point, Morbid obesity another point, One more point for every 5 BMI higher
Waist size over 94 cm (37 inches for those of us on Imperial) adds one more point
HIV 1 to 9 points
I already noted age which is 1 point at 50, 1 more point at 60, and then an added point for every 5 more years of age
Cancer is 1 to 7 points
Kidney disease is 1 to 7 points
Diabetes is 1 to 5 points
There are other points (honestly, I didn't remember all of them).

It would be very dire to get down to kicking people out of the hospital at 4 points. Before then they send people who can care for themselves home with oxygen and medicine to reduce the workload. My uncle survived, but wasn't expected to, but the hospital supported with everything needed. My cousins just had to help a lot (coronavirus patients are labor intensive).

I think the unvaccinated should get some points. That only seems fair. But not anything automatic. Also, US law requires the patient be stabilized before discharge.

Unfortunately ECMO machines are in short supply. One patient in Arizona died while waiting for an ECMO machine:
https://news.yahoo.com/clock-ticking-ar ... 40962.html
https://www.stripes.com/covid/2021-12-2 ... 90294.html

From my doctor friends, ECMO is almost guaranteed with multiple infections with Covid19. Long time on the machines. Here is an example of a young person on ECMO for 65 days:
https://www.newindianexpress.com/good-n ... 99474.html

This link says 9 of 10 in ICU in London unvaccinated:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/1711069 ... sive-care/

Well, that means most of those competing for ECMO will be unvaccinated. I'd like to just avoid that competition.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 6174
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:26 am

DocLightning wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I would have no problem with the unvaccinated if they were made to pay fully out of pocket for their Covid care and were given lower priority for hospital admission.


For the first part of your proposal, I'm afraid I have to disagree. You're dealing with a group of people who believe that it won't happen to them. The threat of death after prolonged suffering hasn't convinced them, so why do you think that the additional threat of bankruptcy will?


Well, the idea is not for it to be a threat, but simply a way for them to pay for what they are costing society in quite a literal way. They've got me jaded enough that I don't care that they are dying by the hundreds in ICUs, I just don't want to be paying for it.

As you said, restricting access to healthcare would be a better solution to help those who have done the right thing but end up suffering from hospital overcrowding, but it comes with a lot of ethical issues.

Aesma wrote:
Francoflier is in France...


I'm not, but I do have some ties to it.

The idea of a financial burden would not only apply to systems with socialized healthcare. More privatized systems, like the US, are still based on the idea of having a large number of people paying for the healthcare needs of a few (just with more greed). Either way, a majority of people who did the right thing and vaccinated end up paying for unnecessary hospitalizations caused by a minority who refused to.
I get that refusing healthcare to the unvaxxed could be unethical (I personally don't think so), but the above certainly isn't ethical or fair either.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:41 am

lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Francoflier is in France, here by default people are insured and won't pay anything for hospitalization. The threat of having to pay might work on some, if the bill appears hefty enough, but it's very unlikely to be legal. What happens when/if hospitals are full is another story, the usual plan is to prioritize people who have better chances of making it. Clearly now with the vaccine having been available to all, this poses a dilemma : should a triple vaccinated 70yo or an unvaccinated 40yo be prioritized for the few remaining resources ?

The US has a triage point system that has been around for decades with a few changes.
Points are bad. I had an uncle kicked out of the hospital as he had too many points (5 points for age and heart issues and that day everyone who had been in the hospital 3+ days with 5+ points went home).
So your example is a 70 year old or 4 points for age. Since no other heath conditions, 4 points.
There is talk of adding the unvaccinated at 3 points, one dose as 2, and unboosted as 1 point. In your hypothetical scenario, both these people would likely remain in the hospital unless they had other points.
Heart trouble 1 to 5 points
Obesity 1 point, Morbid obesity another point, One more point for every 5 BMI higher
Waist size over 94 cm (37 inches for those of us on Imperial) adds one more point
HIV 1 to 9 points
I already noted age which is 1 point at 50, 1 more point at 60, and then an added point for every 5 more years of age
Cancer is 1 to 7 points
Kidney disease is 1 to 7 points
Diabetes is 1 to 5 points
There are other points (honestly, I didn't remember all of them).

It would be very dire to get down to kicking people out of the hospital at 4 points. Before then they send people who can care for themselves home with oxygen and medicine to reduce the workload. My uncle survived, but wasn't expected to, but the hospital supported with everything needed. My cousins just had to help a lot (coronavirus patients are labor intensive).

I think the unvaccinated should get some points. That only seems fair. But not anything automatic. Also, US law requires the patient be stabilized before discharge.

Unfortunately ECMO machines are in short supply. One patient in Arizona died while waiting for an ECMO machine:
https://news.yahoo.com/clock-ticking-ar ... 40962.html
https://www.stripes.com/covid/2021-12-2 ... 90294.html

From my doctor friends, ECMO is almost guaranteed with multiple infections with Covid19. Long time on the machines. Here is an example of a young person on ECMO for 65 days:
https://www.newindianexpress.com/good-n ... 99474.html

This link says 9 of 10 in ICU in London unvaccinated:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/1711069 ... sive-care/

Well, that means most of those competing for ECMO will be unvaccinated. I'd like to just avoid that competition.

Lightsaber

It have been a while ago that I read Japan have been trying to lower hospitalization rate, thus the burden on hospital system, by offering coronavirus pills to mild/asymptomatic patients, especially at-risk groups and unvaccinated groups, hoping that doing so will lower their chance of being hospitalized.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 15335
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:22 am

I remember the outrage over "death panels" during the Obama years. I guess this point system isn't well known... Sending home cancer patients or HIV sufferers because dumb people are afraid of needles, that's quite bad.

c933103 : these pills are quite rare and expensive (in fact I don't think they're available yet, there is remdesivir though but it's not a pill), the idea is to give them early, to people who are most at risk of faring badly : old, comorbidities, unvaccinated...
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:54 am

Aesma wrote:
c933103 : these pills are quite rare and expensive (in fact I don't think they're available yet, there is remdesivir though but it's not a pill), the idea is to give them early, to people who are most at risk of faring badly : old, comorbidities, unvaccinated...

https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2021122400704&g=eco
This news from December 24 which said Japanese government approved Merck's pill on that day, say the government will be sending pill sufficient for 200k people starting from Dec26 across the nation and expect prescription to patient start from December 27, 2 times a day for 5 days after symptom onset for mild/moderate patent.

What I read earlier could be remdesivir but just mis-memorized it as a pill
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:21 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Francoflier is in France, here by default people are insured and won't pay anything for hospitalization. The threat of having to pay might work on some, if the bill appears hefty enough, but it's very unlikely to be legal. What happens when/if hospitals are full is another story, the usual plan is to prioritize people who have better chances of making it. Clearly now with the vaccine having been available to all, this poses a dilemma : should a triple vaccinated 70yo or an unvaccinated 40yo be prioritized for the few remaining resources ?

The US has a triage point system that has been around for decades with a few changes.
Points are bad. I had an uncle kicked out of the hospital as he had too many points (5 points for age and heart issues and that day everyone who had been in the hospital 3+ days with 5+ points went home).
So your example is a 70 year old or 4 points for age. Since no other heath conditions, 4 points.
There is talk of adding the unvaccinated at 3 points, one dose as 2, and unboosted as 1 point. In your hypothetical scenario, both these people would likely remain in the hospital unless they had other points.
Heart trouble 1 to 5 points
Obesity 1 point, Morbid obesity another point, One more point for every 5 BMI higher
Waist size over 94 cm (37 inches for those of us on Imperial) adds one more point
HIV 1 to 9 points
I already noted age which is 1 point at 50, 1 more point at 60, and then an added point for every 5 more years of age
Cancer is 1 to 7 points
Kidney disease is 1 to 7 points
Diabetes is 1 to 5 points
There are other points (honestly, I didn't remember all of them).

It would be very dire to get down to kicking people out of the hospital at 4 points. Before then they send people who can care for themselves home with oxygen and medicine to reduce the workload. My uncle survived, but wasn't expected to, but the hospital supported with everything needed. My cousins just had to help a lot (coronavirus patients are labor intensive).

I think the unvaccinated should get some points. That only seems fair. But not anything automatic. Also, US law requires the patient be stabilized before discharge.

Unfortunately ECMO machines are in short supply. One patient in Arizona died while waiting for an ECMO machine:
https://news.yahoo.com/clock-ticking-ar ... 40962.html
https://www.stripes.com/covid/2021-12-2 ... 90294.html

From my doctor friends, ECMO is almost guaranteed with multiple infections with Covid19. Long time on the machines. Here is an example of a young person on ECMO for 65 days:
https://www.newindianexpress.com/good-n ... 99474.html

This link says 9 of 10 in ICU in London unvaccinated:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/1711069 ... sive-care/

Well, that means most of those competing for ECMO will be unvaccinated. I'd like to just avoid that competition.

Lightsaber

It have been a while ago that I read Japan have been trying to lower hospitalization rate, thus the burden on hospital system, by offering coronavirus pills to mild/asymptomatic patients, especially at-risk groups and unvaccinated groups, hoping that doing so will lower their chance of being hospitalized.

It wasn't done with much forethought. When the ER was backing up because patients couldn't get a bed upstairs, the ER doctors met and discussed and started sending home those healthy enough to take care of themselves so they had an open ER bed to treat someone new. The system in the USA became that log-jammed. The people were sent home with oxygen and pills after being stabilized. Before they were hospitalized to prevent exposure to the family. However, at some point you just have to assume everyone is vaccinated and base medical treatment on that assumption.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:43 pm

https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/ ... e-22579645

Stark difference in ICU admissions for over age 60, the unvaccinated are 60x more likely to end up in the ICU if unvaccinated:

Figures from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC), which covers hospital units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, show that between May and November the rate of admission for double-jabbed Covid sufferers in their 60s was just 0.6 cases per 100,000 people per week.



But, among unjabbed people of the same age, the rate was 37.3 per 100,000 per week equating to a relative risk about 60 times higher.

Among those in their 50s and 70s, there was almost a 30-fold difference in average weekly admission rates between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.


This is about risk management. All the math says, get vaccinated.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22307
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Dec 28, 2021 3:49 am

Francoflier wrote:

Well, the idea is not for it to be a threat, but simply a way for them to pay for what they are costing society in quite a literal way. They've got me jaded enough that I don't care that they are dying by the hundreds in ICUs, I just don't want to be paying for it.


Yes, but then they actually have to have the money. If not, you can't get blood from stone.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:10 am

https://news.now.com/home/hot/player?ne ... 1354&hot=1
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/202112 ... 2_001.html
3 experts in HK: Hong Kong can progressively open up after 99% people are 3-dose vaccinated, first step would be to allow business travelers, and it will result in more than 1000 people dying according to Singapore experience, but it is necessary step to take as the virus wouldn't naturally go away.
One of them mentioned, as novel coronavirus is expected to survive for shorter time in summer, and oversea countries are expected to reach herd immunity over Omicron by then, it would be a good time to open up, so that even when the virus enter community, it hopefully won't overload the hospital, and that could lead to normalization by next Christmas. To achieve this, he urge the government to push vaccine mandate, pushing citizens to vaccinate by March, require public facilities, all work place and schools to be accessible only to those vaccinated, thus that these citizens can take the booster by July 2022, and it'll be possible to open up to low-risk area when vaccination rate reach 90%.

He further mentioned, the new pill to treat coronavirus doesn't mean negate the need of vaccine, as the new pill theoretically could change genes, affecting infants and increase risk of cancer, also costing more than the vaccine.
* I think the remark might be referring to https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 11014.html
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Dec 28, 2021 2:28 pm

Interesting link on how Omicron effects the unvaccinated, vaccinated, and boosted:
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronav ... d/3468742/

"Every patient I’ve seen with Covid that’s had a 3rd ‘booster’ dose has had mild symptoms. By mild I mean mostly sore throat. Lots of sore throat. Also some fatigue, maybe some muscle pain. No difficulty breathing. No shortness of breath. All a little uncomfortable, but fine," Spencer wrote.
...

"Most patients I’ve seen that had 2 doses of Pfizer/Moderna still had ‘mild’ symptoms, but more than those who had received a third dose. More fatigued. More fever. More coughing. A little more miserable overall. But no shortness of breath. No difficulty breathing. Mostly fine,"
...
"Most patients I’ve seen that had one dose of J&J and had Covid were worse overall. Felt horrible."
...

And then there are the unvaccinated, who by all data are being hospitalized at a rate 15x or more the vaccinated.

"And almost every single patient that I’ve taken care of that needed to be admitted for Covid has been unvaccinated. Every one with profound shortness of breath. Every one whose oxygen dropped when they walked. Every one needing oxygen to breath regularly," he said.


There was two symptoms not mentioned in the above. My relative in a hospital in Colorado is noting the 2-dose vaccinated have nausea and mild diarrhea. The unvaccinated have a gastrointestinal explosion of vomiting and uncontrolled diarrhea with an unusual number of atrial fibrillation cases. I don't know if the atrial fibrillation is common or not (it could have just hit a susceptible population), but I've talked to several medical professionals who work the ER and coronavirus wards and the gastrointestinal problems are universal amount Omicron unvaccinated and most enter the hospital dehydrated because of it.

At some point we just need to assume people have done the right thing and ration the amount of healthcare for coronavirus. We must treat the other patients as 20% of excess deaths during the pandemic were not assigned to coronavirus.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12- ... idden.html
These findings show that approximately 20 percent of excess deaths—i.e. the number of deaths beyond what would have been expected in a normal year—were not reflected in COVID-19 death counts among US counties.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Dec 31, 2021 1:06 am

Study in South Africa shows two doses of J&J 85% effective reducing hospitalizations with Omicron:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

That is good news albeit now a 2-dose vaccine.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Dec 31, 2021 5:49 am

Aesma wrote:
c933103 : these pills are quite rare and expensive (in fact I don't think they're available yet, there is remdesivir though but it's not a pill), the idea is to give them early, to people who are most at risk of faring badly : old, comorbidities, unvaccinated...

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202111 ... 21000.html
What I read a while ago was the preventive administration of antibody cocktail to those who range from moderate to mild, and then also those who are still asymptomatic, or just close contact of positive patients, to reduce their chance of becoming severe. Yes those aren't pill form either
.... Given some regions in other developed countries are now haveing difficulty to secure enough antibody treatment to just those who are severe, I guess such preventive measure to reduce severe case hospitalization is not logistically possible in those places...
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Dec 31, 2021 6:18 am

https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications ... 50005.html
Found an interesting data from Japan
This is result and analysis of a survey from April this year, when Japan only starting to roll out vaccine, asking them whether they intended to receive vaccines.
One of the item they asked respondent was, what is your most trusted information source.
The result are as follow (restructured):
Information source/Total respondent/Percentage of respondent who have decided to take the vaccine
TV (NHK [Public Boardcast]) 3,558 71.2%
TV (other channels) 3,164 60.7%
Search engine 1,853 50.0%
News website/apps 630 53.9%
Government/NGO/company sites 512 60.0%
Newspaper 991 71.3%
Magazine 16 75%
Radio 111 59.6%
Facebook 15 26.7%
Twitter 208 45.1%
Instagram 22 35.0%
LINE(equivalent of Whatsapp) 64 51.6%
Academic source like essay 92 50.6%
Others 129 32.3%
No 481 35.9%
-----
While sample size for people who answered Facebook, or Facebook's subsidiary Instagram, are relatively low, and thus it might not be appropriate to draw conclusive answer from this survey, but still it appears like users who rely on Internet service from the then-Facebook Group are proportionally quite a lot more likely to be not willing to take the vaccine, even if compared to other internet service like Twitter or other messaging apps. Is there some deficit in Facebook group's product and content moderation guideline that enabled this? Is there similar analysis on willingness to accept vaccine corresponding with one's main information source from other countries?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:41 pm

c933103 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
c933103 : these pills are quite rare and expensive (in fact I don't think they're available yet, there is remdesivir though but it's not a pill), the idea is to give them early, to people who are most at risk of faring badly : old, comorbidities, unvaccinated...

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202111 ... 21000.html
What I read a while ago was the preventive administration of antibody cocktail to those who range from moderate to mild, and then also those who are still asymptomatic, or just close contact of positive patients, to reduce their chance of becoming severe. Yes those aren't pill form either
.... Given some regions in other developed countries are now haveing difficulty to secure enough antibody treatment to just those who are severe, I guess such preventive measure to reduce severe case hospitalization is not logistically possible in those places...

Antibodies treatments will always be in short supply during surges. The point of vaccines is to reduce the need. Ideally antibodies will only be for the imniocompromised during dire times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/28/opin ... lines.html

However, vaccinated people, especially boostered people, are at very low risk for bad outcomes, less likely to get infected if exposed and less likely to be infectious for longer periods.


The reality is as we are going to treating Covid19 as endemic. That means a certainty for future waves where treatments again run out. Hence why vaccines are needed to mitigate demand.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/omicron ... _theipaper
Omicron: Risk of hospitalisation with new Covid variant half that of Delta, with unvaccinated 8 times likelier


So we already know how this goes.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:20 pm

Interval for vaccines in US reduced to 5 months. Age 12+ now eligible for boosters:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fda-a ... NewsSearch

The Food and Drug Administration authorized Covid-19 booster shots Monday for adolescents ages 12-15, marking the latest step by the U.S. government to green-light more vaccine doses for younger Americans.

Regulators shortened the timeframe between completion of the primary vaccination series with the Pfizer-BioNTech shot — the only one authorized for anyone 12 and older — and when someone can get a booster to at least five months, down from six months.


It really has become too much everyone for themselves as everyone seems to have an excuse why they won't do anything more. I feel for the hospital staff and the coming 4 to 6 weeks.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:56 pm

https://www.reuters.com/legal/governmen ... 021-11-18/
On court, FDA response to scientists request for Pfizer vaccine data, by asking them to wait till year 2076
[News date 2021 November]
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:57 pm

My favorite dashboard just added more detail:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

92.5% of currently hospitalized patients are unvaccinated.
85% of hospital admissions were unvaccinated

In other words, the bulk of the bad, long term, hospital stays are unvaccinated. Fascinating.

Oh well, everyone has become set in their opinion. At this point, except for children who haven't been given the opportunity for a vaccine, everyone who will get vaccinated is vaccinated.

Lightsaber
 
art
Posts: 4641
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
My favorite dashboard just added more detail:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

92.5% of currently hospitalized patients are unvaccinated.
85% of hospital admissions were unvaccinated

In other words, the bulk of the bad, long term, hospital stays are unvaccinated. Fascinating.

Oh well, everyone has become set in their opinion. At this point, except for children who haven't been given the opportunity for a vaccine, everyone who will get vaccinated is vaccinated.

Lightsaber

USA is 60ish% per cent vaccinated? Roll on everyone gets infected by a fairly benign version of COVID-19. Vaccinated people will likely not become very sick; unvaccinated people will be likely to become ill... but may stand a better chance of survival medium term/long term than if they miss omicron and are hit by a future, more virulent version.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:08 am

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
My favorite dashboard just added more detail:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

92.5% of currently hospitalized patients are unvaccinated.
85% of hospital admissions were unvaccinated

In other words, the bulk of the bad, long term, hospital stays are unvaccinated. Fascinating.

Oh well, everyone has become set in their opinion. At this point, except for children who haven't been given the opportunity for a vaccine, everyone who will get vaccinated is vaccinated.

Lightsaber

USA is 60ish% per cent vaccinated? Roll on everyone gets infected by a fairly benign version of COVID-19. Vaccinated people will likely not become very sick; unvaccinated people will be likely to become ill... but may stand a better chance of survival medium term/long term than if they miss omicron and are hit by a future, more virulent version.

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article ... b8ac777402
"Generally speaking, COVID infection's immunity doesn't last as long as the vaccine and does not lead to as robust immunity as the vaccine, which is why people who've had the infection still need to get vaccinated," she wrote.


We must hope they develop good immunity. However, I was taught in high school health class "hope is not a method."

The few unvaccinated I know who had Omicron all had bad nausea and diarrhea. Nothing life threatening, but I wouldn't want that.

I posted above how everyone can now be boosted 5 months after the last dose and 12+ now qualify. I wish younger kids could be vaccinated. I posted in the non-av covid thread how a few hospital systems are being overloaded:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1468417&p=23110147#p23110147

This has, unfortunately transitioned from a possible problem to a real problem. Most of the US nation is two or three weeks behind the UK and they are 50% boosted. Hospitalizations happen well after infection too. How many weeks after infection is in debate, my opinion is Omicron trails cases by 3 weeks.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Winter is here.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:57 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... n-ties-cut
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59633388

After Nicaragua cut their diplomatic tie with Taiwan and established ties with P.R.China citing "ideology affinity", and seized Taiwanese properties in the country handing them to Beijing, they received 1 million dose of vaccines from China in return, as the country currently have relatively low vaccination rate.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:05 am

lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
My favorite dashboard just added more detail:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

92.5% of currently hospitalized patients are unvaccinated.
85% of hospital admissions were unvaccinated

In other words, the bulk of the bad, long term, hospital stays are unvaccinated. Fascinating.

Oh well, everyone has become set in their opinion. At this point, except for children who haven't been given the opportunity for a vaccine, everyone who will get vaccinated is vaccinated.

Lightsaber

USA is 60ish% per cent vaccinated? Roll on everyone gets infected by a fairly benign version of COVID-19. Vaccinated people will likely not become very sick; unvaccinated people will be likely to become ill... but may stand a better chance of survival medium term/long term than if they miss omicron and are hit by a future, more virulent version.

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article ... b8ac777402
"Generally speaking, COVID infection's immunity doesn't last as long as the vaccine and does not lead to as robust immunity as the vaccine, which is why people who've had the infection still need to get vaccinated," she wrote.


We must hope they develop good immunity. However, I was taught in high school health class "hope is not a method."

The few unvaccinated I know who had Omicron all had bad nausea and diarrhea. Nothing life threatening, but I wouldn't want that.

I posted above how everyone can now be boosted 5 months after the last dose and 12+ now qualify. I wish younger kids could be vaccinated. I posted in the non-av covid thread how a few hospital systems are being overloaded:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1468417&p=23110147#p23110147

This has, unfortunately transitioned from a possible problem to a real problem. Most of the US nation is two or three weeks behind the UK and they are 50% boosted. Hospitalizations happen well after infection too. How many weeks after infection is in debate, my opinion is Omicron trails cases by 3 weeks.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Winter is here.

Lightsaber

If the goal is to keep the antibody level high, then down the road maybe a booster will be needed every ~10 weeks? But is antibody level the only thing that need to be concerned when making booster decisions? Can't it be left to memory T cells to deal with them as we accept the virus is endemic?
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:04 am

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220104000765
South Korea planning fourth dose for immunocompromised
 
T4thH
Posts: 1582
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:19 am

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
USA is 60ish% per cent vaccinated? Roll on everyone gets infected by a fairly benign version of COVID-19. Vaccinated people will likely not become very sick; unvaccinated people will be likely to become ill... but may stand a better chance of survival medium term/long term than if they miss omicron and are hit by a future, more virulent version.

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article ... b8ac777402
"Generally speaking, COVID infection's immunity doesn't last as long as the vaccine and does not lead to as robust immunity as the vaccine, which is why people who've had the infection still need to get vaccinated," she wrote.


We must hope they develop good immunity. However, I was taught in high school health class "hope is not a method."

The few unvaccinated I know who had Omicron all had bad nausea and diarrhea. Nothing life threatening, but I wouldn't want that.

I posted above how everyone can now be boosted 5 months after the last dose and 12+ now qualify. I wish younger kids could be vaccinated. I posted in the non-av covid thread how a few hospital systems are being overloaded:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1468417&p=23110147#p23110147

This has, unfortunately transitioned from a possible problem to a real problem. Most of the US nation is two or three weeks behind the UK and they are 50% boosted. Hospitalizations happen well after infection too. How many weeks after infection is in debate, my opinion is Omicron trails cases by 3 weeks.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Winter is here.

Lightsaber

If the goal is to keep the antibody level high, then down the road maybe a booster will be needed every ~10 weeks? But is antibody level the only thing that need to be concerned when making booster decisions? Can't it be left to memory T cells to deal with them as we accept the virus is endemic?

Just for information. The first long time data regarding the booster vaccination are now availbale. What I have seen, seems to be, that after the booster, the antibody level seems to stay high for around 10 to 11 month. Interestingly it seems, that these, who had no sufficient immune answer after the first two vaccinations, seems all to get an excellent immune answer and antibody level after the booster; this was not expected. The mRNA vaccines provide by far the best answer after the booster vaccination, the Johnson and Johnson just did not work as booster (and also the Chinese one are failing).
The sources/link shall have already be posted here somewhere in this thread? (Else, I can/have to search).
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:18 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
USA is 60ish% per cent vaccinated? Roll on everyone gets infected by a fairly benign version of COVID-19. Vaccinated people will likely not become very sick; unvaccinated people will be likely to become ill... but may stand a better chance of survival medium term/long term than if they miss omicron and are hit by a future, more virulent version.

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article ... b8ac777402
"Generally speaking, COVID infection's immunity doesn't last as long as the vaccine and does not lead to as robust immunity as the vaccine, which is why people who've had the infection still need to get vaccinated," she wrote.


We must hope they develop good immunity. However, I was taught in high school health class "hope is not a method."

The few unvaccinated I know who had Omicron all had bad nausea and diarrhea. Nothing life threatening, but I wouldn't want that.

I posted above how everyone can now be boosted 5 months after the last dose and 12+ now qualify. I wish younger kids could be vaccinated. I posted in the non-av covid thread how a few hospital systems are being overloaded:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1468417&p=23110147#p23110147

This has, unfortunately transitioned from a possible problem to a real problem. Most of the US nation is two or three weeks behind the UK and they are 50% boosted. Hospitalizations happen well after infection too. How many weeks after infection is in debate, my opinion is Omicron trails cases by 3 weeks.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Winter is here.

Lightsaber

If the goal is to keep the antibody level high, then down the road maybe a booster will be needed every ~10 weeks? But is antibody level the only thing that need to be concerned when making booster decisions? Can't it be left to memory T cells to deal with them as we accept the virus is endemic?

The hospitalizations in the US are far too high to accept it as endemic yet. We just hit 97k in the hospital. I posted links before on how the US has (regionally) hospitals already hitting capacity and we are 1 to 2 weeks behind the UK and certainly do not have their 50% boosted rate:


Link on hospitalizations
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

Link on UK 50% boosted. USA is 20.69% boosted as I type this:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+type%29

The medical system will strain in the UK. However, they might just pull through thanks to the above link noting they already have 1.96 doses per person in the blood (including boosters). The USA having only 1.53 dozes per person just doesn't seem to be enough to spare the medical system. Oh, this is being managed horribly at the Federal and state levels. I could go on about my opinion on how bad the confusing communication has been with policies that seemed to favor shall we say certain industries... people have lost so much faith we're going to do the wrong thing now.

I am of the opinion Omicron will be the most damaging wave. Not until the hospital systems buckle, but they seem to be on track for that. Not to mention, its only doing less lung damage. Otherwise, it is still a very nasty virus.

Now, everyone should treat it as if endemic and take their own precautions. Sigh... Please talk to the doctors actually dealing with the ERs, coronavirus wards, and long haul symptoms. This is not something to be taken as lightly as we are. I posted in the vaccine thread how the US is now doing boosters for age 12+ and pulled in the booster time to 5 months a la Israel.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/03/fda-exp ... to-15.html

I hope this means allowed additional shots every 5 months (just over 20 weeks). Do we need them every 10 weeks? Probably until we have a nasal vaccine. It doesn't look like that will be allowed though. This quickly goes to the vaccine thread as it looks like we need to dramatically further hike vaccine production. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:36 pm

Oh, it is getting really bad in the hospitals in the UK:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-59866650
At least seven trusts have announced the move in the past week.

Critical incidents are declared when health bosses are concerned they cannot provide priority services, like treatment for cancer or heart disease.
...
In an internal message to staff, Mr Cummins said: "Sadly, despite everyone's best efforts, many of our patients are still receiving a level of care and experience that falls below the level of standards we would like."


Wow, at the point when not only are life extending elective surgeries are put off, but when they just know they cannot take care of patients as they need. It is no longer traumatic at hospital when they put coronavirus patients at wards staffed at 1/3rd the level of the coronavirus wards (recall, coronavirus patients are vey labor intensive). This might be milder per person, but as the old Stalin quote notes, "quantity has a quality all of its own."

At least the UK started "soft lockdowns" before Christmas. Or as the following article notes, "lockdown by default", although it gives NYC examples. I know my work is going into soft lockdown starting today.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... reaks.html
'The best possible scenario is Omicron tears through the population, it causes a month or a month and a half of economic disruption and illness, and then we're through it,' Megan Ranney, an emergency physician and academic dean for Brown's School of Public Health, told Axios.

But she went on to warn: 'The worst-case scenario is Omicron ends up being much more severe, overwhelms and crushes our hospital systems, and then gets followed by a worse variant.'


We are gambling on the former when there are no guarantees the later won't happen. Now, the UK benefits from an extremely high booster rate that will offload the hospitals. Yet... their hospitals are crashing. My favorite dashboard has only one more patient, but that was apparently an unvaccinated patient:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

We've decided to bet the farm on a dice roll. As soon as I regain custody of my kids (just the mom's time), I'll get my eldest boosted. I so wish their was a younger kids vaccine as so many are being hospitalized. I can only imagine what parents are going through:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/child ... NewsSearch
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/children-e2-80-99s-hospital-sees-increase-in-covid-hospitalizations-prepares-for-even-more-cases/ar-AASoMGF?ocid=BingNewsSearch


Well, at least priority of care is by age. The children will always get a bed.

Lightsaber
 
art
Posts: 4641
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:09 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Oh, it is getting really bad in the hospitals in the UK:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-59866650
[i]At least seven trusts have announced the move in the past week.

Critical incidents are declared when health bosses are concerned they cannot provide priority services, like treatment for cancer or heart disease.
...
Lightsaber

Hospitals are being squeezed. Some of the pressure is due to a fall in the number of staff available. IIRC staff are required to isolate at home for a number of days after coming into contact with someone infected. Staff who test positive are required to isolate at home for a number of days.

A chart in the attached link shows a big fall in the proportion of people who catch COVID-19 and are hospitalised. A further chart shows that the majority of people in hospital with COVID-19 are not there for treatment of COVID-19 but for treatment of some other ailment. Of around 14K in hospital with COVID-19 less than 6K are there to have treatment for COVID-19.

Covid infections have risen to unprecedented levels in recent weeks because of the Omicron variant.

But, as early evidence suggested it would, this variant is causing milder illness, for now at least.

A fall in the proportion of detected cases ending in hospital, shows this. It is now five times lower than it was a year ago.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59862568

So I remain hopeful that the unvaccinated-by-choice continue to get it and acquire some immunity from any future variant that is much more damaging than omicron.
 
art
Posts: 4641
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 3:24 pm

I am intrigued about vaccination levels.

In England vaccination levels against various diseases are:

Diptheria 90%+
Tetanus 90%+
Polio 90%+
COVID-19 71%+

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resour ... background

Why do so many people decline vaccination against COVID-19?

Is it because whereas nobody talks of polio vaccination involving secret microchips being injected to take control of people, they do where COVID-19 is concerned? It is bizarre that people decline vaccination against a disease that is causing an epidemic yet accept vaccination against other diseases where the case numbers are small.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:48 pm

art wrote:
I am intrigued about vaccination levels.

In England vaccination levels against various diseases are:

Diptheria 90%+
Tetanus 90%+
Polio 90%+
COVID-19 71%+

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resour ... background

Why do so many people decline vaccination against COVID-19?

Is it because whereas nobody talks of polio vaccination involving secret microchips being injected to take control of people, they do where COVID-19 is concerned? It is bizarre that people decline vaccination against a disease that is causing an epidemic yet accept vaccination against other diseases where the case numbers are small.

The UK is late vaccinating kids. If kids were vaccinated at the levels they are for the other viruses, they would be fine.

It was only two weeks ago age 5-12 could be vaccinated in the UK. There is no approved vaccine for age 0-4 that I know of (for the UK, I am aware the Chinese vaccines go very young).
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... t-approved

Lightsaber
 
SoCalPilot
Posts: 213
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:37 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:01 pm

art wrote:
I am intrigued about vaccination levels.

In England vaccination levels against various diseases are:

Diptheria 90%+
Tetanus 90%+
Polio 90%+
COVID-19 71%+

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resour ... background

Why do so many people decline vaccination against COVID-19?

Is it because whereas nobody talks of polio vaccination involving secret microchips being injected to take control of people, they do where COVID-19 is concerned? It is bizarre that people decline vaccination against a disease that is causing an epidemic yet accept vaccination against other diseases where the case numbers are small.

Probably because a lot of people don't view Covid-19 as being that serious of a illness like they do the others.

How many get vaccinated against the flu each year? Thay would be the number to compare it to.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:53 pm

T4thH wrote:
Just for information. The first long time data regarding the booster vaccination are now availbale. What I have seen, seems to be, that after the booster, the antibody level seems to stay high for around 10 to 11 month. Interestingly it seems, that these, who had no sufficient immune answer after the first two vaccinations, seems all to get an excellent immune answer and antibody level after the booster; this was not expected. The mRNA vaccines provide by far the best answer after the booster vaccination, the Johnson and Johnson just did not work as booster (and also the Chinese one are failing).
The sources/link shall have already be posted here somewhere in this thread? (Else, I can/have to search).

The UK data from this document https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ing-33.pdf seems to indicate even with mRNA booster, the antibody level are falling after 10 weeks
There are also Israel, which have made study but haven't publicized its finding, have its experts agreed in offering fourth dose to vulnerable groups 4 months after the third dose.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 6428
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:39 pm

Hong Kong.
Personal Experience.
As I mentioned in the thread a while ago, Hong Kong now have ~70% population vaccinated, but only ~1X% elderly are vaccinated. Hence Hong Kong government have mentioned they will implement vaccine mandate at restaurants and public facilities, hoping to force the elderly getting the vaccine
According to some family members with wide connection with many older population in the city, they apparently decided that it is a good idea for them to get the "most useless one" so as to bypass the vaccine mandate, as they think a weaker vaccine mean lower chance of side effect and thus fewer risk.
Currently there are two vaccines available in Hong Kong, SinoVac's and Pfizer's.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 126
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:39 pm

c933103 wrote:
Hong Kong.
Personal Experience.
As I mentioned in the thread a while ago, Hong Kong now have ~70% population vaccinated, but only ~1X% elderly are vaccinated. Hence Hong Kong government have mentioned they will implement vaccine mandate at restaurants and public facilities, hoping to force the elderly getting the vaccine
According to some family members with wide connection with many older population in the city, they apparently decided that it is a good idea for them to get the "most useless one" so as to bypass the vaccine mandate, as they think a weaker vaccine mean lower chance of side effect and thus fewer risk.
Currently there are two vaccines available in Hong Kong, SinoVac's and Pfizer's.

This is exactly the curse of a successful zero-covid policy. People (very reasonably) perceive an absolute zero risk of getting Covid and as there is a non-zero risk of suffering the side-effects of a vaccine, they do the perfectly rational thing of not getting a vaccine/ getting the most useless vaccine to get on with their lives as the only motivation to get vaccinated is governmental restrictions.
To break out of this cycle the only way out is to open up, the calculation will be wholly different when there are more than 10,000 cases each day.
 
TokyoImperialPa
Posts: 91
Joined: Sun May 23, 2021 1:50 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:36 pm

yonahleung wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Hong Kong.
Personal Experience.
As I mentioned in the thread a while ago, Hong Kong now have ~70% population vaccinated, but only ~1X% elderly are vaccinated. Hence Hong Kong government have mentioned they will implement vaccine mandate at restaurants and public facilities, hoping to force the elderly getting the vaccine
According to some family members with wide connection with many older population in the city, they apparently decided that it is a good idea for them to get the "most useless one" so as to bypass the vaccine mandate, as they think a weaker vaccine mean lower chance of side effect and thus fewer risk.
Currently there are two vaccines available in Hong Kong, SinoVac's and Pfizer's.

This is exactly the curse of a successful zero-covid policy. People (very reasonably) perceive an absolute zero risk of getting Covid and as there is a non-zero risk of suffering the side-effects of a vaccine, they do the perfectly rational thing of not getting a vaccine/ getting the most useless vaccine to get on with their lives as the only motivation to get vaccinated is governmental restrictions.
To break out of this cycle the only way out is to open up, the calculation will be wholly different when there are more than 10,000 cases each day.


Hong Kong had one of the worst government implementations of public health sanctions when the coronavirus became apparent. It was more typical of western politics than Asian politics. It was fear that caused the Hong Kongers to contain the coronavirus and eventually the government caught up.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 4022
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:04 pm

China is now fast tracking development of their own domestic mRNA vaccine, due to issues with efficacy with their domestic inactivated virus vaccines:

https://www.ft.com/content/5213b69e-607 ... 9302eb390d


China’s race to develop its own messenger RNA vaccine has gained greater urgency as Beijing struggles to rein in an outbreak of the Omicron coronavirus variant that is threatening its zero-Covid policy.

....

Progress towards a domestic mRNA vaccine in China has been slow, as the country’s pharmaceutical companies opted initially to use traditional inactivated virus technology in vaccines.

In November, Chinese biotech company Suzhou Abogen Biosciences and its partner Walvax Biotechnology received regulatory approval to test their mRNA vaccine candidate in a booster trial. Their vaccine deploys the same type of technology used in the Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer jabs, which provide higher levels of protection against the Omicron variant than existing Chinese-made shots.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 15202
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread

Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:08 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
China is now fast tracking development of their own domestic mRNA vaccine, due to issues with efficacy with their domestic inactivated virus vaccines:

https://www.ft.com/content/5213b69e-607 ... 9302eb390d


China’s race to develop its own messenger RNA vaccine has gained greater urgency as Beijing struggles to rein in an outbreak of the Omicron coronavirus variant that is threatening its zero-Covid policy.

....

Progress towards a domestic mRNA vaccine in China has been slow, as the country’s pharmaceutical companies opted initially to use traditional inactivated virus technology in vaccines.

In November, Chinese biotech company Suzhou Abogen Biosciences and its partner Walvax Biotechnology received regulatory approval to test their mRNA vaccine candidate in a booster trial. Their vaccine deploys the same type of technology used in the Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer jabs, which provide higher levels of protection against the Omicron variant than existing Chinese-made shots.


It begs the question of whether this is proactive or reactive?

It would be good if China had more transparent reports on their success with the virus, but i suppose this is an admission that the mRNA vaccines are much more needed and effective.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: journeyperson, lentokone, stratosphere and 35 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos