https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... rs/621193/
“We have a lot of chronically ill people in the U.S., and it’s like all of those people are now coming into the hospital at the same time,” said Vineet Arora, a hospitalist in Illinois. “Some of it is for COVID, and some is with COVID, but it’s all COVID. At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter.” (COVID patients also need to be isolated, which increases the burden on hospitals regardless of the severity of patients’ symptoms.)

From a workload perspective, a coronavirus patient requires about 3 times the labor hours of a non-covid non-ICU patient. Why are we wordsmithing as the hospital workload is driven by if someone has Covid.

To think
“The volume of people presenting to our emergency rooms is unlike anything I’ve ever seen before,” Kit Delgado, an emergency physician in Pennsylvania, told me. Health-care workers in 11 different states echoed what he said: Already, this surge is pushing their hospitals to the edge. And this is just the beginning. Hospitalizations always lag behind cases by about two weeks, so we’re only starting to see the effects of daily case counts that have tripled in the past 14 days (and are almost certainly underestimates).


Think about that a minute. We expect, in the US, to see ER cases triple.
It doesn't matter if:
1. They just have a health problem with coronavirus
2. They have a health problem that pushed them over the edge thanks to getting coronavirus
3. They have bad coronavirus with a prior health problem or

4. They just have bad coronavirus. (e.g., my relatives ward had a very healthy dude who made out with someone in a bar and the viral loading was so high, he needed 2 days of oxygen. The doctors kept him 3 days as the nurses *liked* paying him attention).

In two weeks this will be worse. By all indications, worse in 3 weeks. Probably due to our low vaccination rates. This is only the 4rd or 5th inning of Omicron (in the USA), we have no choice but to play out the full game.

We should have been more proactive. The reality is we need a Federal response in the USA. Instead, we have interesting times ahead.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
We now have 126k in the US hospitals. That is going up about 250 to 500 patients in the hospital per hour (it accelerated brutally today). Scooby says Rhoo Rhoo.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~NLD~DNK

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/new ... vid-trial/
CanSino's vaccine, a Chinese company developed single dose adenovirus vector vaccine, report its Phase 3 trial result.
14 days after vaccination, the vaccine report 63.7% efficacy, and 96% efficiency against severe cases.
28 days after vaccination, the vaccine report 57.5% efficacy, and 91.7% efficiency against severe case.
This doesn't appears to be Omicron data, given the time the report was published.

I am not trying to sugarcoat the next month or so, and those negatives Omicron may bring. But there has been surprisingly little discussion of what the aviation world could look like March 2022 onward. If there is not another variant that emerges, I think there is a decent chance Spring 2022 could look much different than Fall 2021.

Speaking in generalizations, I knew many people who were fully vaccinated and yet were also still slightly fearful of flying commercial because of Covid concerns. Among that group, there were some who wouldn’t travel at all via plane, and others who would only fly if they had to. Point being, they were mostly all avoiding “frivolous” trips via commercial aircraft.

Over the last month, many in that group have contracted Covid (obviously likely Omicron). Now they are in a situation where they are both vaccinated, and “recovered” from having Covid. I use recovered in quotations, because fortunately all the vaccinated people I know with Omicron had very minor symptoms and they felt fine after a few days. Anyway, due to both being vaccinated and having had Covid, they think they are in the clear going forward.

I am not here to argue the medical validity of that perspective, but merely to point out that I know many people who have “recovered” from Omicron feel that way and have that perspective. More relevant, many of those same people were among those, who for all of 2021, were very cautious. So it is a paradigm shift for them, as many of them no longer feel the need to be cautious (right or wrong), and this event essentially brings back online a “hibernating market segment” to the airline industry.

I guess my point is that this group is suddenly ok with air travel now. They are fine eating in restaurants, and living their normal lives again. And depending on how large of a group this is, this could have real meaningful impacts on how much people (or rather, how many people) are now willing to travel, and I think the impact will be far more so than when the vaccines rolled out in 2021.

People joked about summer 2021 being revenge travel. Because of Omicron, I could see Summer 2021 being the tip of the iceberg for what revenge travel may occur in Summer 2022.

kavok wrote:

I am not trying to sugarcoat the next month or so, and those negatives Omicron may bring. But there has been surprisingly little discussion of what the aviation world could look like March 2022 onward. If there is not another variant that emerges, I think there is a decent chance Spring 2022 could look much different than Fall 2021.

Speaking in generalizations, I knew many people who were fully vaccinated and yet were also still slightly fearful of flying commercial because of Covid concerns. Among that group, there were some who wouldn’t travel at all via plane, and others who would only fly if they had to. Point being, they were mostly all avoiding “frivolous” trips via commercial aircraft.

Over the last month, many in that group have contracted Covid (obviously likely Omicron). Now they are in a situation where they are both vaccinated, and “recovered” from having Covid. I use recovered in quotations, because fortunately all the vaccinated people I know with Omicron had very minor symptoms and they felt fine after a few days. Anyway, due to both being vaccinated and having had Covid, they think they are in the clear going forward.

I am not here to argue the medical validity of that perspective, but merely to point out that I know many people who have “recovered” from Omicron feel that way and have that perspective. More relevant, many of those same people were among those, who for all of 2021, were very cautious. So it is a paradigm shift for them, as many of them no longer feel the need to be cautious (right or wrong), and this event essentially brings back online a “hibernating market segment” to the airline industry.

I guess my point is that this group is suddenly ok with air travel now. They are fine eating in restaurants, and living their normal lives again. And depending on how large of a group this is, this could have real meaningful impacts on how much people (or rather, how many people) are now willing to travel, and I think the impact will be far more so than when the vaccines rolled out in 2021.

People joked about summer 2021 being revenge travel. Because of Omicron, I could see Summer 2021 being the tip of the iceberg for what revenge travel may occur in Summer 2022.

Those who are vaccinated and boosted think they're now safe, those who are mot think corona isn't something to worry about, and regardless of which side there are mass amount of information being projected how people is less likely to end up in hospital with Omicron, which made much much more than a few people and regardless of which side they are on (vaccinated or not) connecting the dots and reaching the conclusion that they just *won't* get anything bad with Omicron, no matter the true odds. And then there are also the lockdown fatigue issue. Which make me think people are already doing revenge travel nowadays despite the surging hospitalization. The hindering thing would be the economy still far from recovering, and supply chain issues + monetary policy mean inflation is going.to be higher than comfortable to a lot of people.

Natural immunity isn't working out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

“This idea of natural immunity is not really panning out with this virus,” Dr. Hilary Fairbrother, an emergency medicine physician based in New York City, said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “I think part of that is because Omicron has so many mutations, and there’s really no way to know what the next variant will have.”
...
“I think the problem with herd immunity is that is really taking into account that this virus won’t mutate significantly and we might not have a very significant variant roaming around that has nothing to do with omicron that really doesn’t see any natural immunity from people who have been sick with omicron,” Fairbrother said, adding that "that's kind of what we saw with" previous variants.
...
When it comes to natural immunity, relying on prior natural infection over vaccination can come at a cost — and it doesn't seem to work currently given the evasive capabilities of Omicron.
...\For patients who had alpha or delta [strains of coronavirus], they seem to have next to no immunity when it comes to omicron,” Fairbrother said. “There is some evidence that there’s slightly less severity in disease, and other people have certainly seen patients who are very sick with omicron who have already had COVID. So the best protection that we have is vaccination.”


I currently have a male cousin who had Alpha (most likely, it was that time frame) who is on day 5 of a knock you down cold like Omicron. This athlete isn't moving around much.

I've posted numerous times in this thread how natural immunity has a half life. This link has a longer half life much longer than other's I have seen (125 days).
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211 ... -last.aspx

This helps explain the case rates.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Natural immunity isn't working out.

Natural immunity on its own may not be working, but vaccine + exposure may actually offer a fairly strong immunity.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... protection

At least before Omicron.

Francoflier wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Natural immunity isn't working out.

Natural immunity on its own may not be working, but vaccine + exposure may actually offer a fairly strong immunity.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... protection

At least before Omicron.

This we can agree on. Natural immunity is one immunity event. Adding a jab on top of it should boost immunity highly. As you link notes:
Breakthrough cases 65% to 82% lower in previously infected


Fascinating link on the fully vaccinated with prior or without prior infection. I appreciate you sharing it.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Natural immunity isn't working out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

“This idea of natural immunity is not really panning out with this virus,” Dr. Hilary Fairbrother, an emergency medicine physician based in New York City, said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “I think part of that is because Omicron has so many mutations, and there’s really no way to know what the next variant will have.”
...
“I think the problem with herd immunity is that is really taking into account that this virus won’t mutate significantly and we might not have a very significant variant roaming around that has nothing to do with omicron that really doesn’t see any natural immunity from people who have been sick with omicron,” Fairbrother said, adding that "that's kind of what we saw with" previous variants.
...
When it comes to natural immunity, relying on prior natural infection over vaccination can come at a cost — and it doesn't seem to work currently given the evasive capabilities of Omicron.
...\For patients who had alpha or delta [strains of coronavirus], they seem to have next to no immunity when it comes to omicron,” Fairbrother said. “There is some evidence that there’s slightly less severity in disease, and other people have certainly seen patients who are very sick with omicron who have already had COVID. So the best protection that we have is vaccination.”


I currently have a male cousin who had Alpha (most likely, it was that time frame) who is on day 5 of a knock you down cold like Omicron. This athlete isn't moving around much.

I've posted numerous times in this thread how natural immunity has a half life. This link has a longer half life much longer than other's I have seen (125 days).
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211 ... -last.aspx

This helps explain the case rates.

Lightsaber

Natural immunity works in similar rate as virus
The UK technical briefing 31 I linked before mentioned with Omicron, previous-infected are 5-8 times more vulnerable to reinfection than with prior variant
But this is just like those who were 2-dose vaccinated.
And then there are also memory T cell and nemory B cell.
So it help a bit but not much
And in the end, it helped South Africa ti see a lower hospitalization peak than previous wave, where most people had prior infection by the point despite not being vaccinated.
This can be conoares to the situation of the United States where more people are vaccinated but after combined with relatively kess amount of previously infected people, the overall immunity is less thus hospitalization is on track to exceed previous high.

Something that has not been properly discussed or researched is what side-effects come with being infected with the coronavirus regardless of the severity of the disease - a human usually is not able to feel most of the internal effects of a disease beyond things like fever and fatigue. Would having coronavirus mean that the body is weaker against new infections/diseases?

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

Something that has not been properly discussed or researched is what side-effects come with being infected with the coronavirus regardless of the severity of the disease - a human usually is not able to feel most of the internal effects of a disease beyond things like fever and fatigue. Would having coronavirus mean that the body is weaker against new infections/diseases?

That was researched and dismissed early; coronavirus is not the measles, it does not erase protection from other diseases.
https://dearpandemic.org/covid-19-vacci ... -response/

The virus does more than damage the nerves, lungs, and arteries. It also really reduces male fertility:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7978437/

You don't want the virus.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

Something that has not been properly discussed or researched is what side-effects come with being infected with the coronavirus regardless of the severity of the disease - a human usually is not able to feel most of the internal effects of a disease beyond things like fever and fatigue. Would having coronavirus mean that the body is weaker against new infections/diseases?

That was researched and dismissed early; coronavirus is not the measles, it does not erase protection from other diseases.
https://dearpandemic.org/covid-19-vacci ... -response/

The virus does more than damage the nerves, lungs, and arteries. It also really reduces male fertility:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7978437/

You don't want the virus.

Lightsaber

I was talking about the virus not the vaccine.

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

I was talking about the virus not the vaccine.

Subject of this thread are vaccines, please continue here:

COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

There's growing doubts over the effectiveness of boosting repeatedly and in short intervals:

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-do-multiple ... a-60447735

There are some really interesting takes in this DW article. From the fact that there's no data on what good repeated doses would do to the potential deleterious effects on the immune system of repeated exposure to the same antigens.

There's also the reminder from some specialists that the vaccines have ben held up to an 'impossible standard' in which they were expected to prevent people from having any symptoms at all rather than just preventing severe sickness and deaths, which is what the goal should be.

Consequently, some experts are of the opinion that the focus should still be on vaccinating the unvaccinated (especially in poorer countries) to give everyone some immunity rather than pumping the already vaccinated with more of the same vaccine every couple of months, like some nations are trying to do.

Vaccinated parents protect unvaccinated children:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hospi ... NewsSearch
The study found that, regardless of household size, having one vaccinated parent decreased the risk of an unvaccinated child catching COVID-19 by 23.4% on average. Two vaccinated parents decreased the risk by an average of 64.9%, although the risk only decreased by 58.1% during the delta wave, compared to 71.7% during the alpha wave.

While the decrease wasn't perfect, it shows that vaccines help slow the spread. What we need now is an variant vaccine, possibly a nasal vaccine, to further increase the protection. Not to mention a very young child vaccine. We're going to end up with a split society, well protected and not.

I like the term split screen pandemic (see article). People will return to their lives with different people taking different risk, with many not fully understanding the risk they take.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ameri ... NewsSearch

Lightsaber

Francoflier wrote:

There's growing doubts over the effectiveness of boosting repeatedly and in short intervals:

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-do-multiple ... a-60447735

There are some really interesting takes in this DW article. From the fact that there's no data on what good repeated doses would do to the potential deleterious effects on the immune system of repeated exposure to the same antigens.

There's also the reminder from some specialists that the vaccines have ben held up to an 'impossible standard' in which they were expected to prevent people from having any symptoms at all rather than just preventing severe sickness and deaths, which is what the goal should be.

Consequently, some experts are of the opinion that the focus should still be on vaccinating the unvaccinated (especially in poorer countries) to give everyone some immunity rather than pumping the already vaccinated with more of the same vaccine every couple of months, like some nations are trying to do.

I know I personally don’t plan on taking another Covid shot until an updated, better targeted one is released. I boosted back in November before Omicron, but now will just wait till the fall to see what Pfizer has, start getting on a more annualized schedule to align with the peak winter surges like we see with the flu.

Hospitals have an unprecedented caseload:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hospi ... NewsSearch

We already know hospitalizations lag cases by a week or two (I posted links upthread).

My favorite dashboard has 60 patients as I type (out of a capacity for 40, other services are severely cut):
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Judging by how people are behaving, all the behaviors are as if this is over. Unfortunately, this will be endemic. Not everyone will have a good experience.

art wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Judging by how people are behaving, all the behaviors are as if this is over. Unfortunately, this will be endemic.

When does an epidemic disease cease to be such and become an endemic disease? Is there a level of infection above/below which a disease is/is not of epidemic proportions? Just curious and thought you might know.

Endemic in my opinion is when a disease takes out the most vulnerable. Technically, it is a disease always present in a population (can be bad, e.g., Malaria).

https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is- ... %20America.

We're ignoring this despite hospital overload. (I posted links before.) This won't be friendly endemic (e.g., colds), this will be be more like malaria (long haul symptoms that change lifestyle) in my opinion.

There will be ways to mitigate. I fully expect acceptance of variant vaccines and masking to plummet. Meh, this won't be the last fill up the hospital wave, in my opinion. If it wasn't impacting available care for others, I wouldn't pay attention.

Lightsaber

art wrote:

Official statistics show that 75.8% of Germany’s population have received at least one shot, while 74% are fully vaccinated...

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/01/cov ... into-force

I have been wondering why there was such a big difference between 1st and 2nd shot numbers in England: 78.8% 1st shot; 72.8% 2nd shot. Why is the difference in 1st and 2nd dose numbers so small in Germany compared to England?

England raw data source: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... cinations/

Could it be the start of the child vaccine campaign in the UK that started 10 January.?
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... -12-to-15/

Lightsaber

art wrote:

Addendum to above -

Perhaps quite a few people think that COVID-19 is no longer a threat (Omicron BA.1 seeming relatively benign compared to Delta) so don't bother getting a 2nd jab?

Considering the death rate and the horrid hospitalization rates, I would say they are wrong:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

The vaccines are good, just not perfect. As someone who had long haul symptoms (I had a very successful operation to fix the worst symptom and a diet chance to alleviate the others), I would suggest getting a vaccine to reduce the risk of those long haul symptoms. This is a virus; the virus doesn't care about beliefs, just to propagate.

If the hospitals weren't filling up, I wouldn't care. I work out in a park on the route to one hospital; the number of ambulances rushing buy has multiplied the last few weeks. This is not over by any means.

The responsible people will get vaccinated. A new study on how the vaccinated are less likely to spread the disease:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/31/the-new ... finds.html

We'll get a variant booster and continue on. I personally won't lock down anymore for people who won't take care of themselves. Boosters are 90% effective preventing hospitalization. Good enough. At this point we get to assume everyone is vaccinated and boosted.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

art wrote:

Addendum to above -

Perhaps quite a few people think that COVID-19 is no longer a threat (Omicron BA.1 seeming relatively benign compared to Delta) so don't bother getting a 2nd jab?

Considering the death rate and the horrid hospitalization rates, I would say they are wrong:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

The vaccines are good, just not perfect. As someone who had long haul symptoms (I had a very successful operation to fix the worst symptom and a diet chance to alleviate the others), I would suggest getting a vaccine to reduce the risk of those long haul symptoms. This is a virus; the virus doesn't care about beliefs, just to propagate.

If the hospitals weren't filling up, I wouldn't care. I work out in a park on the route to one hospital; the number of ambulances rushing buy has multiplied the last few weeks. This is not over by any means.

The responsible people will get vaccinated. A new study on how the vaccinated are less likely to spread the disease:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/31/the-new ... finds.html

We'll get a variant booster and continue on. I personally won't lock down anymore for people who won't take care of themselves. Boosters are 90% effective preventing hospitalization. Good enough. At this point we get to assume everyone is vaccinated and boosted.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Lightsaber

Omicron is basically the proof that Covid doesn't care about anti vaccine beliefs

//edit, the black lines are the US.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... tates.html

the below is the share of people vaccinated


The US Is not fully vaccinated and the death toll shows it.
the below is the Death rate n the current Omicron pandemic since Dec 1

The booster rate also shows it.

below is the population fully boosted.




Thy NYT article has an interesting point about the percentage of the US population 65+ and the number of obese people

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... ers-death/

It is almost tragedy, the State Trooper who said Gov. Inslee could kiss his ass, as he resigned and refused to get the vaccine and has died as a direct result of the virus. The trooper was also celebrated by Fox network, featured by Republican candidates in Washington State.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... inue-avoid
China CDC: Even with 95% vaccination rate, reopening would lead to 234 million infected and 2 million people die, so it's better to continue closing the border and keep zero corona policy

c933103 wrote:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3166171/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions-should-continue-avoid
China CDC: Even with 95% vaccination rate, reopening would lead to 234 million infected and 2 million people die, so it's better to continue closing the border and keep zero corona policy

Meanwhile in HK the govt still insist that if people get the jab (the vaccination rate in HK is around 75% getting 2 jabs, 80% got 1 jab) that things will eventually reopen. I guess they didn't get the note from the central govt?

Of course, for that 20% most of them are elderly (70+ has a 30%-ish vax rate in HK). Also noted that about 40% of those with 2 jabs got Sinovac which is nowhere as useful as Pfizer (the only other vax available in HK).

c933103 wrote:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3166171/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions-should-continue-avoid
China CDC: Even with 95% vaccination rate, reopening would lead to 234 million infected and 2 million people die, so it's better to continue closing the border and keep zero corona policy

I guess that means China (and by extension Macao) will have its borders closed forever then. There is simply no way out if they just will not bite the bullet. This is just indefinitely prolonging the pain.

zakuivcustom wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3166171/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions-should-continue-avoid
China CDC: Even with 95% vaccination rate, reopening would lead to 234 million infected and 2 million people die, so it's better to continue closing the border and keep zero corona policy

Meanwhile in HK the govt still insist that if people get the jab (the vaccination rate in HK is around 75% getting 2 jabs, 80% got 1 jab) that things will eventually reopen. I guess they didn't get the note from the central govt?

Of course, for that 20% most of them are elderly (70+ has a 30%-ish vax rate in HK). Also noted that about 40% of those with 2 jabs got Sinovac which is nowhere as useful as Pfizer (the only other vax available in HK).

The Chinese CDC figure is probably based on the fact that most Chinese people are vaccinated with either Sinopharm, Sinovac, or Cansinobio. Maybe they will have better figure if they're willing to use mRNA vaccines, which the Chinese government did approve some of the Pfizer's, imported some through Fuxing, claim those are invested by Chinese and thus count as Chinese vaccines, and did some small scale vaccination program in some selected districts usually inhabited by people with closer connection to the top of the Chinese society. But I guess they aren't willing to let the wider population in Mainland China get a foreign vaccine, nor is there enough production capacity for most of Chinese people to get those mRNA vaccines. And I also haven't heard of any Omicron-specific booster news from Chinese vaccine makers either. So I guess they're holding the situation in place until indefinite future when they can develop and produce their own mRNA vaccines.

c933103 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3166171/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions-should-continue-avoid
China CDC: Even with 95% vaccination rate, reopening would lead to 234 million infected and 2 million people die, so it's better to continue closing the border and keep zero corona policy

Meanwhile in HK the govt still insist that if people get the jab (the vaccination rate in HK is around 75% getting 2 jabs, 80% got 1 jab) that things will eventually reopen. I guess they didn't get the note from the central govt?

Of course, for that 20% most of them are elderly (70+ has a 30%-ish vax rate in HK). Also noted that about 40% of those with 2 jabs got Sinovac which is nowhere as useful as Pfizer (the only other vax available in HK).

The Chinese CDC figure is probably based on the fact that most Chinese people are vaccinated with either Sinopharm, Sinovac, or Cansinobio. Maybe they will have better figure if they're willing to use mRNA vaccines, which the Chinese government did approve some of the Pfizer's, imported some through Fuxing, claim those are invested by Chinese and thus count as Chinese vaccines, and did some small scale vaccination program in some selected districts usually inhabited by people with closer connection to the top of the Chinese society. But I guess they aren't willing to let the wider population in Mainland China get a foreign vaccine, nor is there enough production capacity for most of Chinese people to get those mRNA vaccines. And I also haven't heard of any Omicron-specific booster news from Chinese vaccine makers either. So I guess they're holding the situation in place until indefinite future when they can develop and produce their own mRNA vaccines.

I thought they make the Pfizer vax in Shanghai also right now?

But yeah, Sinovac and Sinopharm (and J&J for that matter) are just not effective, and against Omicron it is worse.

yonahleung wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3166171/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions-should-continue-avoid
China CDC: Even with 95% vaccination rate, reopening would lead to 234 million infected and 2 million people die, so it's better to continue closing the border and keep zero corona policy

I guess that means China (and by extension Macao) will have its borders closed forever then. There is simply no way out if they just will not bite the bullet. This is just indefinitely prolonging the pain.

Macao economy is doom as-is. They even remove those high rolling VIP rooms more or less which only hurt that gambling market more.

zakuivcustom wrote:

c933103 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

Meanwhile in HK the govt still insist that if people get the jab (the vaccination rate in HK is around 75% getting 2 jabs, 80% got 1 jab) that things will eventually reopen. I guess they didn't get the note from the central govt?

Of course, for that 20% most of them are elderly (70+ has a 30%-ish vax rate in HK). Also noted that about 40% of those with 2 jabs got Sinovac which is nowhere as useful as Pfizer (the only other vax available in HK).

The Chinese CDC figure is probably based on the fact that most Chinese people are vaccinated with either Sinopharm, Sinovac, or Cansinobio. Maybe they will have better figure if they're willing to use mRNA vaccines, which the Chinese government did approve some of the Pfizer's, imported some through Fuxing, claim those are invested by Chinese and thus count as Chinese vaccines, and did some small scale vaccination program in some selected districts usually inhabited by people with closer connection to the top of the Chinese society. But I guess they aren't willing to let the wider population in Mainland China get a foreign vaccine, nor is there enough production capacity for most of Chinese people to get those mRNA vaccines. And I also haven't heard of any Omicron-specific booster news from Chinese vaccine makers either. So I guess they're holding the situation in place until indefinite future when they can develop and produce their own mRNA vaccines.

I thought they make the Pfizer vax in Shanghai also right now?

But yeah, Sinovac and Sinopharm (and J&J for that matter) are just not effective, and against Omicron it is worse.

yonahleung wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3166171/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions-should-continue-avoid
China CDC: Even with 95% vaccination rate, reopening would lead to 234 million infected and 2 million people die, so it's better to continue closing the border and keep zero corona policy

I guess that means China (and by extension Macao) will have its borders closed forever then. There is simply no way out if they just will not bite the bullet. This is just indefinitely prolonging the pain.

Macao economy is doom as-is. They even remove those high rolling VIP rooms more or less which only hurt that gambling market more.

The BioNTech vaccine is marketed in China under Fosun Pharma, just like it is marketed by Pfizer in the US, Europe, etc. It hasn't been approved in the PRC yet, but it's widely used in HK. Some of my friends living there got that vaccine instead of the PRC-made ones. But in China, it's still being "reviewed", whatever that means.

Just curious, but why is the vaccine rate so low among HK seniors? You'd think they'd be the first in line to get the vaccine.

zakuivcustom wrote:

I thought they make the Pfizer vax in Shanghai also right now?

That's the plan, but as China Mainland isn't using them, they seems to have too much vaccine stocks now, as can be seen from their discussion with Taiwan last year, that opening a production line for themselves wouldn't make sense.

leader1 wrote:

Just curious, but why is the vaccine rate so low among HK seniors? You'd think they'd be the first in line to get the vaccine.

Pfizer received emergency use approval in Hong Kong in December 2020, at the time Snovac still haven't submitted their 3rd stage test result to international medical periodical yet. Meanwhile the Hong Kong government want to flex Mainland China's muscle and thus want to make Chinese vaccines available to Hong Kong first, and with pro-Beijing politicians citing some antivaxx sentiment like "mRNA technology is new, is there any side effect?", as well as "Are Western-developed vaccines suitable for Chinese?", urging Hong Kong government to speed up approval for Chinese vaccines. Hence in January 2021, the Hong Kong government asked Fuxing to provide full data for the local medical expert panel for review, and approved it for local use in January 2021.
Then in January to February 2021, initial batches of Fuxing vaccines arrived Hong Kong. Following Western world example, Hong Kong government prioritized vaccination for high risk groups, including elderly and people with severe disease. However, due to the nature of these people with various comorbidity and of old age being first vaccinated, and maybe also have to do with how they approved these vaccines, there quite a number of report of death coming out of these people days after being vaccinated, mostly cardiovascular disease, which make headlines everyday consecutively. Experts in Hong Kong claim they have no direct relationship with vaccination, but they cannot rule out whether there were any indirect relationship as it would take months to investigate, and it's also difficult for their explanation to gain trust among public due to them being an organization under Hong Kong government. At the time, the news also traveled to Mainland China, which have started their vaccination program.
In response to these reports, Chinese media pointed to the fact that Sinovac still haven't gained emergency use approval among elderly age group or people with comorbidity in China at the time, and attributed to the number of death as Hong Kong government not following the usage instruction. At the time, China only approved their domestic vaccines for people age 18-64, prioritizing "people at risk" aka those who work with logistics and deal with border control by the Chinese government definition, as China have long implemented zero-corona policy hence the largest "risk" is importation of virus from other countries. Such explanation was also heard by people in Hong Kong, and the government of Hong Kong at the time also complied and urged people with comorbidity assess on their own before taking the vaccine. Sinovac was soon approved in the city of Beijing like a week or so after, for use by elderly and people with comorbidity, however that news was not being reported in Hong Kong as it would contradict the narrative that those death are caused by the people with comorbidity not observing medical advise properly.
Meanwhile local pro-Beijing media in Hong Kong try to cover these deaths by comparing them with Western vaccines, reporting in details every single case of possible severe vaccine side effects they can find in Western countries, including Pfizer which Hong Kong government will later adopt and AstraZeneca which was on Hong Kong government orderbook at the time, and also try to make as much news out of people who died after getting Pfizer vaccines in Hong Kong, including even some of the cases who slipped while hiking days after vaccination which resulted in death. The result of all these factors back then, was up to 30% cancellation rate among those who previously made vaccine appointment themselves, quick drop in vaccination appointment rate, and closure of vaccination center due to lack of takers.
Short after, the Hong Kong government decided that publishing these numbers daily in detail will result in more vaccine hesitancy, hence they decided to stop reporting them in details, which only make people think the Hong Kong government have even further reduced their transparency and is trying to cover up data, with occasional cases of people dying after vaccination but quickly ruled out by doctors as unrelated surfacing that only solidify the sentiment, and the result is deep anti-vaccine sentiment across the entire city.

Later, in late 2021, as the vaccination number in Hong Kong stay low, and many Pfizer vaccines in Hong Kong government's hand were about to expire, the government decided they need to push the number of vaccination, and that's about the time of Delta outbreak in the West when Western countries also launched vaccine pass system and Chinese government also start vaccinating all the people of specific "high risk" positions (the same definition of high risk as they have had above), hence Hong Kong government decided to require emergency workers, border facility workers, and thus to take the vaccine or pay out of their own pockets for frequent virus testing fee every few days. As a result of these policies, the vaccination number among Hong Kong adult population have increased satisfyingly, as people are economic animals, most adults would rather take the vaccine than to pay for the constant testing fee or risk losing their jobs due to these vaccine-related restriction. Contrarily, elderly are mostly retired, thus isn't being threatened by vaccine mandates for various job positions at least by now (The situation is expected to change with government adding restaurants, malls, supermarkets into part of the vaccine mandate later this month), and they are also being said as more likely to face vaccine side effect in the initial vaccine rollout, hence most elderly in Hong Kong remain unvaccinated.

Relevant reports on individual events have been posted in all the past vaccine threads with sources in each respective posts.

https://m.mingpao.com/pns/%E6%B8%AF%E8% ... F%E5%BA%9C


Another singer in Hong Kong have been arrested with the National Security charge and money laundering, with part of the charge being "Painting government and experts' anti-pandemic strategy in negative lights, go against the government's vaccination push, and use foul language to comment on experts opinion on vaccination".
The police claim such acts constitutes trying to provoke hate against Hong Kong government, and trying to cause dissatisfaction among Hong Kong residents, which are both criminal under the Hong Kong National Security Law.

https://finance.ettoday.net/news/2190203
One of Taiwan's vaccine's phase 3 test data in Paraguay have been disclosed, and received emergency use authorization in a number of countries. International trial under WHO is expected to deblind the test data around March to April pending sufficient number of test subject being infected. They plan to apply for European authorization using non-European data as Europe already have high vaccination rate. They aim to supply 100 million dose/year and become an internationalized baccine supplier.

https://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83 ... 2%E9%87%9D
Hong Kong government: Only 6 out of 46 deaths are vaccinated
4 are SinoVac and 2 are Pfizer, with half of each being only 1-dose vaccinated, and the others 2-dose.

Omicron appears to be evading Sinovac vaccine:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-fin ... on-variant

In children some numbers on Sinovac:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1255066.shtml

According to the study, a preprint of which was published on Tuesday on Research Square, the estimated effectiveness of the CoronaVac shot was 38.2 percent against infection, 64.6 percent against hospitalization, and 69 percent prevention of intensive care unit admission.


Well, better than nothing. But having a little better than a third of the chance for hospital or a little worse than a third of the chance to stay out of the ICU.

Keep handing the vaccine out, but plan for boosters.

Lightsaber

c933103 wrote:

https://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E/737859/%E7%96%AB%E6%83%85-%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%94%E6%B3%A2%E7%88%86%E7%99%BC%E8%87%B3%E4%BB%8A%E5%85%B146%E6%AD%BB-%E5%BC%B5%E7%AB%B9%E5%90%9B-%E5%83%85%E5%BE%976%E4%BA%BA%E6%8E%A5%E7%A8%AE%E7%96%AB%E8%8B%973%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%93%E8%B6%B32%E9%87%9D
Hong Kong government: Only 6 out of 46 deaths are vaccinated
4 are SinoVac and 2 are Pfizer, with half of each being only 1-dose vaccinated, and the others 2-dose.

In my book 1 dose vaccines do so little, it might as well be unvaccinated. Medicines must be taken in the recommended doses or forget about any benefit.

So 1 Pfizer death, which isn't statistically meaningful.

2 Sinovac deaths also aren't statistically meaningful among the numbers of people (they could have been on the last days anyway).

43 unvac deaths (I count 1 dose as unvaccinated), that is different. What are the ages? Cancer? Kidney issues? Diabetes?

This is sad.

I'd like to know the medically necessary hospitalizations (not the quarantined).

Lightsaber

Here's a positive report about the 1-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine:

As Virus Data Mounts, the J.&J. Vaccine Holds Its Own

Roughly 17 million Americans received the Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine, only to be told later that it was the least protective of the options available in the United States. But new data suggest that the vaccine is now preventing infections, hospitalizations and deaths at least as well as the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines.
...
As of Jan. 22, the latest data available, unvaccinated people were 3.2 times as likely to become infected as those who received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine; they were 2.8 times as likely to become infected as those who received two doses of the Moderna vaccine and 2.4 times as likely as those with two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech. Overall, then, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine appeared to be somewhat more protective against infection than the two alternatives.

lightsaber wrote:

I'd like to know the medically necessary hospitalizations (not the quarantined).

Lightsaber

I don't think there are numbers, as there are cases that need medical support but cannot get them and died in their homes or died in isolation facilities, while people in makeshift hospital are saying they are completely recovered however the government do not have enough manpower to handle their situation and thus they remain trapped inside

CowAnon wrote:

Here's a positive report about the 1-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine:

As Virus Data Mounts, the J.&J. Vaccine Holds Its Own

Roughly 17 million Americans received the Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine, only to be told later that it was the least protective of the options available in the United States. But new data suggest that the vaccine is now preventing infections, hospitalizations and deaths at least as well as the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines.
...
As of Jan. 22, the latest data available, unvaccinated people were 3.2 times as likely to become infected as those who received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine; they were 2.8 times as likely to become infected as those who received two doses of the Moderna vaccine and 2.4 times as likely as those with two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech. Overall, then, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine appeared to be somewhat more protective against infection than the two alternatives.

I couldn’t read the article. Did it mention anything about the effectiveness and a certain amount of time?

tomaheath wrote:

CowAnon wrote:

Here's a positive report about the 1-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine:

As Virus Data Mounts, the J.&J. Vaccine Holds Its Own

Roughly 17 million Americans received the Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine, only to be told later that it was the least protective of the options available in the United States. But new data suggest that the vaccine is now preventing infections, hospitalizations and deaths at least as well as the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines.
...
As of Jan. 22, the latest data available, unvaccinated people were 3.2 times as likely to become infected as those who received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine; they were 2.8 times as likely to become infected as those who received two doses of the Moderna vaccine and 2.4 times as likely as those with two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech. Overall, then, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine appeared to be somewhat more protective against infection than the two alternatives.

I couldn’t read the article. Did it mention anything about the effectiveness and a certain amount of time?

The effectiveness over a longer amount of time seems to raise JnJ to the same level as (or better than) Moderna/Pfizer. They're not sure why, though. These were some of the theories offered:

• The adenovirus used in the JnJ vaccine is much more durable than with the other vaccines.
• The antibodies produced by the JnJ vaccine decline more slowly than with Moderna/Pfizer.
• The JnJ-produced antibodies get more sophisticated over time due to "affinity maturation."

CowAnon wrote:

tomaheath wrote:

CowAnon wrote:

Here's a positive report about the 1-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine:

As Virus Data Mounts, the J.&J. Vaccine Holds Its Own

Roughly 17 million Americans received the Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine, only to be told later that it was the least protective of the options available in the United States. But new data suggest that the vaccine is now preventing infections, hospitalizations and deaths at least as well as the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines.
...
As of Jan. 22, the latest data available, unvaccinated people were 3.2 times as likely to become infected as those who received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine; they were 2.8 times as likely to become infected as those who received two doses of the Moderna vaccine and 2.4 times as likely as those with two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech. Overall, then, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine appeared to be somewhat more protective against infection than the two alternatives.

I couldn’t read the article. Did it mention anything about the effectiveness and a certain amount of time?

The effectiveness over a longer amount of time seems to raise JnJ to the same level as (or better than) Moderna/Pfizer. They're not sure why, though. These were some of the theories offered:

• The adenovirus used in the JnJ vaccine is much more durable than with the other vaccines.
• The antibodies produced by the JnJ vaccine decline more slowly than with Moderna/Pfizer.
• The JnJ-produced antibodies get more sophisticated over time due to "affinity maturation."

I appreciate it. Mostly interested because that’s the one I received.

https://www.hk01.com/%E7%AA%81%E7%99%BC ... A%E7%B7%9D

Hong Kong law enforcement issued arrest warrant against a doctor, said the doctor issue medical exemption document for vaccination without first examining the patent's medical history constitute production of fraudulent documents, and they claim the doctor's behavior is unethical because "If someone try to escape getting vaccinated by using these fraudulent documents, it would increase the risk of community infection, greatly set back the effectiveness of fighting against the pandemic".

lightsaber wrote:

In my book 1 dose vaccines do so little, it might as well be unvaccinated. Medicines must be taken in the recommended doses or forget about any benefit.

So 1 Pfizer death, which isn't statistically meaningful.

2 Sinovac deaths also aren't statistically meaningful among the numbers of people (they could have been on the last days anyway).

43 unvac deaths (I count 1 dose as unvaccinated), that is different. What are the ages? Cancer? Kidney issues? Diabetes?

This is sad.

I'd like to know the medically necessary hospitalizations (not the quarantined).

Lightsaber

https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%E8%A6%81% ... 5%E6%B3%B0
Media report from yesterday:
Overall death rate in the city is 0.5%, not fully vaccinated's death rate is 1.34%, 2-dose vaccinated death rate 0.09%
For those over age 60, not fully vaccinated's death rate is 4%, while 2-dose vaccinated's death rate is 0.4%.
Of the 5167 death being analyzed in this report, 3681 are unvaccinated. 1486 did not enjoy sufficient protection, which either mean they are only vaccinated with1-dose, OR their second dose was less than 14 days ago OR more than 180 days ago.
Of the remaining death, 368 death were SinoVac-vaccinated and 64 were Pfizer-vaccinated. It includes 37 who received boosters, which includes 18 with SinoVac, 14 with Pfizer, and 5 mixed.

Of all the 1486 vaccinated death, including those who are only 1-dose vaccinated, as well as those whose 2nd dose were more than 180 days ago, 87% death were vaccinated with SinoVac, aka 1292 death, while 184 death, or 12%, were Pfizer-vaccinated. However this didn't take into account more elderly picked SinoVac for their vaccination. Some expert say given the data, it might be necessary to consider SinoVac vaccinated to be fully vaccinated only after they received booster dose.

https://topick.hket.com/article/3207841 ... 7%E5%80%8D
After the publication of previous media report from this morning, today the Hong Kong government claim the news was misleading. They claim that, 80% elderly in Hong Kong picked SinoVac for vaccination and only ~20% use Pfizer, which is just like the distribution of those age 80+. They claim, of all 5683 death in this Omicron wave until today, 60% are from elderly homes, and 90% deaths are unvaccinated, with 0.1% death rate among 2-dose fully vaccinated while 1-dose vaccinated have a death rate of 1.37%, which shows a 14-times disparity, and the overall death rate is 0.55%.
They say that, 3837 of all death are people age over 80. 74% of these death, aka 2837, are unvaccinated.The death rate for unvaccinated elderly age 80+ in this Omicron wave is 15%, while death rate for 1-dose vaccinated in this Omicron wave is 5.59% for those age 80+, and those age 80+ with 2-dose vaccinated have a death rate of 2.62%, indicating protection power of vaccination. They further claim, among 1-dose vaccinated deaths from those age over 80, the death rate for 1-dose-SinoVac-vaccinated is 5.83%, and for Pfizer that is 3.44%, indicating that vaccination regardless of brands being more important than the brand of vaccine being picked.

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 220320.htm
However, the government have also adjusted the policy amid the situation, from May 31 they will require people age over 12 to be 3-dose vaccinated in order to enter places where the government enforced vaccine pass, unless their second dose was less than six months old. Recovered patients will now need 2 dose six months after their recovery in order to enter vaccine pass facilities.

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

In my book 1 dose vaccines do so little, it might as well be unvaccinated. Medicines must be taken in the recommended doses or forget about any benefit.

So 1 Pfizer death, which isn't statistically meaningful.

2 Sinovac deaths also aren't statistically meaningful among the numbers of people (they could have been on the last days anyway).

43 unvac deaths (I count 1 dose as unvaccinated), that is different. What are the ages? Cancer? Kidney issues? Diabetes?

This is sad.

I'd like to know the medically necessary hospitalizations (not the quarantined).

Lightsaber

https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%E8%A6%81% ... 5%E6%B3%B0
Media report from yesterday:
Overall death rate in the city is 0.5%, not fully vaccinated's death rate is 1.34%, 2-dose vaccinated death rate 0.09%
For those over age 60, not fully vaccinated's death rate is 4%, while 2-dose vaccinated's death rate is 0.4%.
Of the 5167 death being analyzed in this report, 3681 are unvaccinated. 1486 did not enjoy sufficient protection, which either mean they are only vaccinated with1-dose, OR their second dose was less than 14 days ago OR more than 180 days ago.
Of the remaining death, 368 death were SinoVac-vaccinated and 64 were Pfizer-vaccinated. It includes 37 who received boosters, which includes 18 with SinoVac, 14 with Pfizer, and 5 mixed.

Of all the 1486 vaccinated death, including those who are only 1-dose vaccinated, as well as those whose 2nd dose were more than 180 days ago, 87% death were vaccinated with SinoVac, aka 1292 death, while 184 death, or 12%, were Pfizer-vaccinated. However this didn't take into account more elderly picked SinoVac for their vaccination. Some expert say given the data, it might be necessary to consider SinoVac vaccinated to be fully vaccinated only after they received booster dose.

https://topick.hket.com/article/3207841 ... 7%E5%80%8D
After the publication of previous media report from this morning, today the Hong Kong government claim the news was misleading. They claim that, 80% elderly in Hong Kong picked SinoVac for vaccination and only ~20% use Pfizer, which is just like the distribution of those age 80+. They claim, of all 5683 death in this Omicron wave until today, 60% are from elderly homes, and 90% deaths are unvaccinated, with 0.1% death rate among 2-dose fully vaccinated while 1-dose vaccinated have a death rate of 1.37%, which shows a 14-times disparity, and the overall death rate is 0.55%.
They say that, 3837 of all death are people age over 80. 74% of these death, aka 2837, are unvaccinated.The death rate for unvaccinated elderly age 80+ in this Omicron wave is 15%, while death rate for 1-dose vaccinated in this Omicron wave is 5.59% for those age 80+, and those age 80+ with 2-dose vaccinated have a death rate of 2.62%, indicating protection power of vaccination. They further claim, among 1-dose vaccinated deaths from those age over 80, the death rate for 1-dose-SinoVac-vaccinated is 5.83%, and for Pfizer that is 3.44%, indicating that vaccination regardless of brands being more important than the brand of vaccine being picked.

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 220320.htm
However, the government have also adjusted the policy amid the situation, from May 31 they will require people age over 12 to be 3-dose vaccinated in order to enter places where the government enforced vaccine pass, unless their second dose was less than six months old. Recovered patients will now need 2 dose six months after their recovery in order to enter vaccine pass facilities.

https://www.wenweipo.com/a/202203/20/AP ... 09473.html
Note that, this data is amid the Hong Kong government have already administered Merck's pill to ~9300-9400 patients, and Pfizer's oral pill to ~1500-1600 patients, but most of those who received the pills are mild or moderate while they were administered with the pill

c933103 wrote:

https://www.wenweipo.com/a/202203/20/AP6236fef7e4b036dce9a09473.html
Note that, this data is amid the Hong Kong government have already administered Merck's pill to ~9300-9400 patients, and Pfizer's oral pill to ~1500-1600 patients, but most of those who received the pills are mild or moderate while they were administered with the pill

Yeesh. They move fast. They only just got that many pills within the last couple days.

India approves Novavax for teens (ages 12+)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch


This is great news. Thanks to the broader temperature handling, like AZ, this will allow more remote areas to be vaccinated.

Lightsaber

Moderna safe in 6mo to 5 year olds, but only 40% effective against symptomatic disease. Basically, Omicron gets by the current vaccines. The article is well worth a read for details.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/moder ... NewsSearch
There were no cases of serious illness or hospitalizations in the trial, which included close to 7,000 children 6 months to 5 years old, making it impossible to detect the vaccine’s possible protective effect against the worst outcomes.

No hospitalizations are good. But at a rate of 14.5 hospitalizations per 100,000 children for the age group in question, that is one hospitalization per 7,000 kids (same as the study sample size). If the study had over 21,000 children and no hospitalizations, it would mean something statistically.

I'm extremely pro-vaccine, but there is no data yet on a vaccine in the age 5 or less category that seems to be good enough. I would recommend the vaccine, but this is definitely the parent's choice.

Link rate child hospitalizations:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hospi ... uxbndlbing