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Link to the old thread viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1453993

777ER
Head Forum Moderator

I am of the perception vaccine production is the most critical bottleneck at this time.

Great news, 12 billion doses expected in 2021 with the total growing to 22 billion by summer of 2022.
https://www.bworldonline.com/12-billion ... d-of-2021/

That is the base course for most of the world this year, and boosters for pretty much everyone by mid-3rd quarter 2022.

I'm fascinated by individual production.
Pfizer 3 billion in 2021: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-lif ... 1620425904
Moderna ramping up to 3 billion in 2022 (I posted in prior thread 800 million to just under a billion in 2021, I haven't found a newer link): https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-i ... covid-vax/
India ramping up to produce 250 milion doses month, starting October: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/ind ... 43181.html

I wasn't able to find the J&J, AZ, Sinovac/Sinopharm, or Sputnik V overall production figures. I would appreciate links. At least production is getting there.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

I am of the perception vaccine production is the most critical bottleneck at this time.

Is it though? According to the JHU dashboard vaccinations peaked at 45 million doses/day/28day average, and is now down to 34 million/day. That would rather imply that the logistics of getting the vaccine into arms has become the bottleneck.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I am of the perception vaccine production is the most critical bottleneck at this time.

Is it though? According to the JHU dashboard vaccinations peaked at 45 million doses/day/28day average, and is now down to 34 million/day. That would rather imply that the logistics of getting the vaccine into arms has become the bottleneck.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

best regards
Thomas

I know that Europe is not typical of the world but here in England we are vaccinating <20% as much as we were 4 months ago. Peak 7 day average was >500,000 jabs per day end May and has dropped to <75,000 per day now. 73% of population has received 1 jab, 66% has received 2nd jab. I don't think a lack of logistics accounts for this - how could it, since we were administering >500,000 vaccinations a day 4 months ago? I also don't see how we could be short of vaccine now.

I am mystified why our programme has tailed off so dramatically, given that we have a pool of >3.5 million who have received jab 1 and need jab 2 (and vaccine hesitancy should not apply to this group).

tommy1808 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I am of the perception vaccine production is the most critical bottleneck at this time.

Is it though? According to the JHU dashboard vaccinations peaked at 45 million doses/day/28day average, and is now down to 34 million/day. That would rather imply that the logistics of getting the vaccine into arms has become the bottleneck.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

best regards
Thomas

China, European Union, and USA have fast decreasing vaccination rates, on the surface it looks as if their declining vaccination rates account for the global decline in doses taken per day.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... ion~Africa

Now some is China hasn't yet done a mass child under age 12 campaign yet. I speculate China is stockpiling for that effort, which is bringing down the global vaccination rate.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 021-09-16/
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/ch ... uxbndlbing

Just talking high population countries (the chart was getting messy as is):
India, Indonesia, and arguably Brazil have increasing population rates.

With India using the vaccines it produces, US just finished a debate on boosters, China getting ready for young kids (I speculate), and EU finishing up pushing a successful drive, I do think we need more production.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... NM~TWN~THA

Last week, COVAX announced that its 2021 forecast for COVID-19 doses available for distribution would be reduced by a quarter, from 1.9 billion to 1.4 billion.

https://www.smith.senate.gov/us-senator ... dle-income

We need sufficient production that globally, enough vaccine is available for the producer's needs and to protect the world with wastage.
I think the current lull in vaccination rate is more stockpiling for younger children and boosters (plausible with a 20% drop in jab/day off the numbers you gave).

The next wall will be vaccine hesitancy/avoidance/rejection:
For many young people who are still debating whether or not to get vaccinated, the decision has less to do with politics and more to do with the perception of the virus.
https://www.newsweek.com/low-vaccinatio ... al-1628592

So my first hunch is we need more production as I believe we're about to slingshot on boosters and child vaccines. (The China and future India drives alone will be massive.)
As a parent of a child too young to be vaccinated by the current US standard (age 12+), I believe part of the delay in juvenile vaccines was to free supply for adults.

CDC has updated their guidance by age. They are just as likely to have the illness and presumably spread it, although a change in the health risk (still not zero):
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... y-age.html

With a shortage of vaccines in Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, and the nations of Africa. That takes much further production.
The ourworld in data shows we are at 32% two jabs and 43% of the world with one jab with India, Brazil, Thailand, Vietnam, and in particular Taiwan supply constrained.

Since we will obviously need a variant booster, in my opinion, we'll need high production rates. We've talked forever about need a booster every year a la the flu shot. So be it. Possibly more often.

Lightsaber

We are getting closer to the 5-12 set getting vaccinated. Pfizer's trial with a 10micorgram vaccine seem to be proving highly successful.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... d-effectiv

Giving a two-dose regimen of 10 μg (micrograms) administered 21 days apart for children between the ages of 5 to 11 years old was well tolerated, according to Pfizer and BioNTech. Side effects were also generally comparable to those of people between the ages of 16 and 25 years old who received the vaccine.

This trial used a smaller vaccine dosage, 10 μg, than the regular 30 μg dose currently used for people 12 and older. The dosage was selected as the preferred dose for safety and effectiveness in children.

Interesting size difference, especially when you consider as soon as you turn 12, you get the full 30micrograms. I know 11 year olds bigger than many 14 year olds.
I wonder if there will be a booster.

art wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I am of the perception vaccine production is the most critical bottleneck at this time.

Is it though? According to the JHU dashboard vaccinations peaked at 45 million doses/day/28day average, and is now down to 34 million/day. That would rather imply that the logistics of getting the vaccine into arms has become the bottleneck.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

best regards
Thomas

I know that Europe is not typical of the world but here in England we are vaccinating <20% as much as we were 4 months ago. Peak 7 day average was >500,000 jabs per day end May and has dropped to <75,000 per day now. 73% of population has received 1 jab, 66% has received 2nd jab. I don't think a lack of logistics accounts for this - how could it, since we were administering >500,000 vaccinations a day 4 months ago? I also don't see how we could be short of vaccine now.

I am mystified why our programme has tailed off so dramatically, given that we have a pool of >3.5 million who have received jab 1 and need jab 2 (and vaccine hesitancy should not apply to this group).

89,4% having at least one does in the age group 16 and older may just limit the available arms to stick.Needs only a few million hesitant to get there.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

best regards
Thomas

Johnson and Johnson 2 dose is 94% effective.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/21/health/j ... index.html

A two-dose version of Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccine provides 94% protection against symptomatic infection, the company said Tuesday -- making a two-dose regimen of J&J's Janssen vaccine comparable to a two-dose regimen of Moderna's or Pfizer's.

Data on the J&J vaccine has come later than data about the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines because J&J's was authorized around two months later. Johnson & Johnson has said it will submit all of this data to the FDA for potential consideration for adding a booster dose, and perhaps for consideration to authorize a two-dose regimen.
The Janssen vaccine is made using a different technology from Moderna's and Pfizer's vaccines. They deliver messenger RNA or mRNA directly to the body wrapped in compounds called lipids. The J&J vaccine is made using an adenovirus, a common cold virus, that's been engineered so it can get into cells, but then stops. It delivers genetic instructions that way.

At least we have another option for the unvaccinated going forward.

casinterest wrote:

We are getting closer to the 5-12 set getting vaccinated. Pfizer's trial with a 10micorgram vaccine seem to be proving highly successful.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... d-effectiv

Giving a two-dose regimen of 10 μg (micrograms) administered 21 days apart for children between the ages of 5 to 11 years old was well tolerated, according to Pfizer and BioNTech. Side effects were also generally comparable to those of people between the ages of 16 and 25 years old who received the vaccine.

This trial used a smaller vaccine dosage, 10 μg, than the regular 30 μg dose currently used for people 12 and older. The dosage was selected as the preferred dose for safety and effectiveness in children.

Interesting size difference, especially when you consider as soon as you turn 12, you get the full 30micrograms. I know 11 year olds bigger than many 14 year olds.
I wonder if there will be a booster.

As mentioned in another post, Hong Kong government experts are now recommending only 1-dose Pfizer to people age between 12 and 17

casinterest wrote:

Johnson and Johnson 2 dose is 94% effective.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/21/health/j ... index.html

A two-dose version of Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccine provides 94% protection against symptomatic infection, the company said Tuesday -- making a two-dose regimen of J&J's Janssen vaccine comparable to a two-dose regimen of Moderna's or Pfizer's.

Data on the J&J vaccine has come later than data about the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines because J&J's was authorized around two months later. Johnson & Johnson has said it will submit all of this data to the FDA for potential consideration for adding a booster dose, and perhaps for consideration to authorize a two-dose regimen.
The Janssen vaccine is made using a different technology from Moderna's and Pfizer's vaccines. They deliver messenger RNA or mRNA directly to the body wrapped in compounds called lipids. The J&J vaccine is made using an adenovirus, a common cold virus, that's been engineered so it can get into cells, but then stops. It delivers genetic instructions that way.

At least we have another option for the unvaccinated going forward.

That is amazing effectiveness! That suddenly means new production should favor that vaccine (low cost, high 2-jab effectiveness).

Lightsaber

c933103 wrote:

As mentioned in another post, Hong Kong government experts are now recommending only 1-dose Pfizer to people age between 12 and 17

Same in the UK. The JCVI published their reasoning here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ember-2021

What stood out to me:

ICU visits prevented per million doses
First dose: 2.54
Second dose: 0.16

Myocarditis incidents per million doses:
First dose: 3-17
Second dose: 12-34

I know they don't compare, apparently most of the myocarditis events are treatable with Ibuprofen. But it illustrates that the benefits are overwhelmingly in the first dose, the risks disproportionately in the second. The only way I would query the outcome is that it doesn't split by gender as I understand boys are 8x more at risk than girls - maybe you could double dose girls.

It also says to me that a lot of countries jumped the gun with their juvenile vaccination programs - the recent decision by the FDA restricting Pfizer boosters to over 65s seems a tacit acknowledgement of that. And I can't see how you could justify using mRna vaccines on under 12s ethically. At risk children aside, obviously.

I was also going to reply the other day to @lightsaber about the Valneva cancellation. I thought this was a bit of a blow. I think as we move forward the focus will shift from efficacy to safety, as the benefits of boosters etc become more marginal. Novavax and Valneva were the two upcoming western vaccines that looked useful in that regard. Lots of contradictory information about why the contract was cancelled, hope it was the UK government cost cutting.

lightsaber wrote:

casinterest wrote:

Johnson and Johnson 2 dose is 94% effective.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/21/health/j ... index.html

A two-dose version of Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccine provides 94% protection against symptomatic infection, the company said Tuesday -- making a two-dose regimen of J&J's Janssen vaccine comparable to a two-dose regimen of Moderna's or Pfizer's.

Data on the J&J vaccine has come later than data about the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines because J&J's was authorized around two months later. Johnson & Johnson has said it will submit all of this data to the FDA for potential consideration for adding a booster dose, and perhaps for consideration to authorize a two-dose regimen.
The Janssen vaccine is made using a different technology from Moderna's and Pfizer's vaccines. They deliver messenger RNA or mRNA directly to the body wrapped in compounds called lipids. The J&J vaccine is made using an adenovirus, a common cold virus, that's been engineered so it can get into cells, but then stops. It delivers genetic instructions that way.

At least we have another option for the unvaccinated going forward.

That is amazing effectiveness! That suddenly means new production should favor that vaccine (low cost, high 2-jab effectiveness).

Lightsaber

You would think so, but now it becomes a messaging issue, and a late to the party issue.

BaconButty wrote:

c933103 wrote:

As mentioned in another post, Hong Kong government experts are now recommending only 1-dose Pfizer to people age between 12 and 17

Same in the UK. The JCVI published their reasoning here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ember-2021

What stood out to me:

ICU visits prevented per million doses
First dose: 2.54
Second dose: 0.16

Myocarditis incidents per million doses:
First dose: 3-17
Second dose: 12-34

I know they don't compare, apparently most of the myocarditis events are treatable with Ibuprofen. But it illustrates that the benefits are overwhelmingly in the first dose, the risks disproportionately in the second. The only way I would query the outcome is that it doesn't split by gender as I understand boys are 8x more at risk than girls - maybe you could double dose girls.

It also says to me that a lot of countries jumped the gun with their juvenile vaccination programs - the recent decision by the FDA restricting Pfizer boosters to over 65s seems a tacit acknowledgement of that. And I can't see how you could justify using mRna vaccines on under 12s ethically. At risk children aside, obviously.

I was also going to reply the other day to @lightsaber about the Valneva cancellation. I thought this was a bit of a blow. I think as we move forward the focus will shift from efficacy to safety, as the benefits of boosters etc become more marginal. Novavax and Valneva were the two upcoming western vaccines that looked useful in that regard. Lots of contradictory information about why the contract was cancelled, hope it was the UK government cost cutting.

The younger Pfizer will be 1/3rd the dose (10 micro grams vs. 30). So I don't see the ethical issue at low doses. As someone who has long haul symptoms, I don't see how we don't vaccinate everyone over say 6 months.

The main issue was lack of data for younger than age 65. There were only 300 age 18 to 55 in the data submitted:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-advisers

This wasn't a reject on safety, it was a rejection on lack of data. I personally disagree this being any admission other than they wanted more data.

We'll have data "at the end of the month."
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/kids-hea ... 5-n1279615

As to marginal, I heard an audio (I couldn't find a link) that when Pfizer/biontech was asked about reduced transmission with a booster, they had no data to support that conclusion. When I look at case data, it is extremely high for Israel. I personally had proclaimed we we see a reduction by now. We haven't see a case reduction...
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... EU~FRA~ISR

I remain enthusiastic about mRNA vaccines. There is a learning curve... I'm also excited about adrenovirus vaccines. E.g., I posted above about the amazing effectiveness of two dose J&J. I'd bet a booster for AZ would be just as good, if not better (I am of the opinion that vaccine seems to reduce transmission more). Much of my opinion is based on how a 3rd MMR vaccine improves immunity (for all three viruses):
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31112277/

Or 3rd jab Sinopharm:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21263373v1?

"Although neutralizing antibodies elicited by the standard two-dose vaccination schedule dropped from a peak of 31.2 AU/ml to 9.2 AU/ml 5 months after the second vaccination, spike-specific memory B and T cells were still detectable, forming the basis for a quick recall response. As expected, the faded humoral immune response was vigorously elevated to 66.8 AU/ml by 7.2 folds 1 week after the third dose along with abundant spike-specific circulating follicular helper T cells in parallel. Meanwhile, spike-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were also robustly elevated by 5.9 and 2.7 folds respectively. "

Antibodies double the 2-jab level with much more of B and T cells? Excellent. I have to take back a lot I wrote on that vaccine. As a 3 dose regimen, it is outstanding!

Once enough data on Pfizer, we should expect boosters. For 12 to say 18 year olds, perhaps 3 weeks is to close together? I could see going to 8 weeks, but still 2 jabs. I'm very happy one child is vaccinated. I wish I could vaccinate the younger one

I'm not going to pretend I know enough about Valneva's cancellation. As another killed virus vaccine that seemed effective, risk seemed low.

As to NovaVax, it is always two months from greatness. Yes, I am a cynic, why do you ask?

The issue seems to be untargeted boosters of Pfizer don't slow transmission or if it does slow, not enough.

We all want this to be over. I honestly thought boosters of Pfizer would work better than they are. I support them, but not with... the fervour I did before. I really want to see the UK data on mixing vaccines (in detail).

Lightsaber

Based on this MSN article, production may be up but the potential is there for a lot of it to go wasted....
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/northamerica/ ... li=BBJDXDP

Australia has already implemented a two dose Pfizer program for 12-15yo, with a 5-6 week gap to spread supply (3 weeks until my 13yo's second shot). Reported today that the Australian Government has sought data from Pfizer regarding the safety of a program for 5+.

par13del wrote:

Based on this MSN article, production may be up but the potential is there for a lot of it to go wasted....
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/northamerica/ ... li=BBJDXDP

MSN don't publish their own article, they simply re-host articles from other news sources, like this one you linked is from BBC

[quote="Kent350787"]Australia has already implemented a two dose Pfizer program for 12-15yo, with a 5-6 week gap to spread supply (3 weeks until my 13yo's second shot). Reported today that the Australian Government has sought data from Pfizer regarding the safety of a program for 5+.[/quiote]
Congrats to Australia. Now there needs to be more data, but I think a 6 (or even 8) week gap will help mitigate the side effects.

I very much look forward to the vaccine for 5+. Heck, since preschool starts at age 3 and every parent knows how much of a germ factory they are, we need to keep going younger. I look forward to the results of the 3 micro gram studies in the youngest kids.

Serious question, I've heard of chinese vaccines for young kids, Pfizer for 12+ and soon 5+, Moderna for 12+, what other children's vaccines are there? We're not getting out of this until we have a very high fraction of the population vaccinated, that means stopping the spread among kids.
or whether it is simply spreading more quickly because they aren’t vaccinated.

https://answers.childrenshospital.org/delta-kids/

Maybe its because I've accepted not enough will get vaccinated that I'll just settle for being in the best protected bubble I can be. That means vaccinated kids.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Kent350787 wrote:

Australia has already implemented a two dose Pfizer program for 12-15yo, with a 5-6 week gap to spread supply (3 weeks until my 13yo's second shot). Reported today that the Australian Government has sought data from Pfizer regarding the safety of a program for 5+.[/quiote]
Congrats to Australia. Now there needs to be more data, but I think a 6 (or even 8) week gap will help mitigate the side effects.

I very much look forward to the vaccine for 5+. Heck, since preschool starts at age 3 and every parent knows how much of a germ factory they are, we need to keep going younger. I look forward to the results of the 3 micro gram studies in the youngest kids.

Serious question, I've heard of chinese vaccines for young kids, Pfizer for 12+ and soon 5+, Moderna for 12+, what other children's vaccines are there? We're not getting out of this until we have a very high fraction of the population vaccinated, that means stopping the spread among kids.
or whether it is simply spreading more quickly because they aren’t vaccinated.

https://answers.childrenshospital.org/delta-kids/

Maybe its because I've accepted not enough will get vaccinated that I'll just settle for being in the best protected bubble I can be. That means vaccinated kids.

Lightsaber

In Hong Kong, due to class opening restrictions, many oarents simply stop sending their children to preschools, since they cannot interact with other children via online preschool and they still need someone to take care of during work hours, hence they think it's not worth, and it's not something mandatory anyway.

lightsaber wrote:

We're not getting out of this until we have a very high fraction of the population vaccinated, that means stopping the spread among kids.

I'm all for vaccinating kids, but I doubt it would stop the spread among them. Slow it? probably. But likely not stop it.

But if 'getting out of this' equates to 'stopping the spread', then I have bad news... I don't think we're ever stopping the spread of Covid. Decrease Rnaught, sure, but I don't think there is a way of stopping it.
It's all about building immunity.

Now, I know I'm addressing someone twice infected and who still has to deal with the sequelae of these events and that this does not sound like a promising prospect, but the gradual building of immunity is what will get us out of this. Of course, that immunity should first and foremost come from vaccines.

It would be naive, to think that vaccination alone will stop covid transmission.
I think the best we can hope for is that any one measure, including vaccination, will only ever slow the spread of covid transmission.
But a combination of measures rigously applied may be well sufficient to virtually stop local transmission.
A variation in tolerance of covid transmission, means that containment borders and border control measures of varying severity will remain.
I think most of us will end up living somewhere between, in a world balanced between vaccination levels, local restrictions, and the constant possibility of covid illness and death. These balances could though be quite different depending on local conditions, local health resources and local attitudes. And movement between these health zones will be subject to equivalent border controls that we are long used to, on movement between political zones on internationa borders.

Toenga wrote:

It would be naive, to think that vaccination alone will stop covid transmission.
I think the best we can hope for is that any one measure, including vaccination, will only ever slow the spread of covid transmission.
But a combination of measures rigously applied may be well sufficient to virtually stop local transmission.
A variation in tolerance of covid transmission, means that containment borders and border control measures of varying severity will remain.
I think most of us will end up living somewhere between, in a world balanced between vaccination levels, local restrictions, and the constant possibility of covid illness and death. These balances could though be quite different depending on local conditions, local health resources and local attitudes. And movement between these health zones will be subject to equivalent border controls that we are long used to, on movement between political zones on internationa borders.

I would say this would be the case in areas with low vaccination rates. However if we are at 80-90% for a population and up to 100% for vulnerable citizens then we can't simply look to squash community spread when it comes up we need community spread to stay ahead of the variants. If vaccination causes a mild infection or no symptoms in a vaccinated person then that person has now gained immunity and a natural booster to the variant of covid that they were infected by.


If with these numbers hospitals are still being overwhelmed then we really have to question the efficacy of these vaccines to in fact prevent, severe illness and death.

It is very unlikely that the Delta variant is going to mutate to a variant that our immune systems wouldn't recognize it. A vaccine resistant variant could have enough of a difference from the initial strain but not likely from the dominant one circulating as it would be an immediate descendent of the dominant strain. Its counter intuitive but we need this virus circulating to actually be safe from it. The idea of disinfecting everything, masking as a regular activity, distancing from people are all temporary stop gaps to spread this out to make it manageable. Kids need to get these bugs (cold and flu, strep throat. ear infections etc.) and spend the first 10-15 years of their lives getting sick so they actually know how to deal with pathogens. Not so long ago we had parties to give all the kids in the neighborhood chickenpox so it was over and done with.

Low rate of adverse side effects for boosters. This time a real sample of 2 million people:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-upda ... d=80126549

flyguy89 wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

We're not getting out of this until we have a very high fraction of the population vaccinated, that means stopping the spread among kids.

I'm all for vaccinating kids, but I doubt it would stop the spread among them. Slow it? probably. But likely not stop it.

But if 'getting out of this' equates to 'stopping the spread', then I have bad news... I don't think we're ever stopping the spread of Covid. Decrease Rnaught, sure, but I don't think there is a way of stopping it.
It's all about building immunity.

Now, I know I'm addressing someone twice infected and who still has to deal with the sequelae of these events and that this does not sound like a promising prospect, but the gradual building of immunity is what will get us out of this. Of course, that immunity should first and foremost come from vaccines.

I think he’s going to be real disappointed as well in the amount of vaccine uptake by parents to vaccinate children that young. That and, as BaconButty referenced, there’s actually some mitigating data that suggests blanket vaccination for under-12s may not make sense.

Yet there is spread among the children.

As to uptake, it looks like only 26% of surveyed parents will vaccinate their kids:
https://qz.com/2061791/pfizer-says-its- ... YPH_link_2

My math says this group (5-11) is only 10% of the population (excluding kids who somehow were vaccinated early). So with this being only about 2.5% of the population willing, I concede this won't make an overall huge impact. I believe that recent survey is probably accurate, or as close as possible.

Due to risk of long haul symptoms, it eventually makes sense to vaccinate the younger children. What vaccine is a different question. Locally, it won't be an issue. That creates a bubble, so to speak.

Every pediatrician I talk to says the vaccines make sense for children. Some advocate spreading out doses.

Pediatric cases are about a quarter of all cases and over 250,000. Going from memory, 75 million children of 330, they are getting infected at the same rate as adults (give or take).
https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-cases-a ... 18923.html

The 'need' for the vaccines in children will depend on how we the adults stop the spread. While I recognize children are less likely to develop long haul symptoms, it is still 6% to 10%. One of my relatives will be primarily treating Covid19 long haul when this is past the current surge (patients have to just bear with it, unless critical, for now). I expect my relative will be able to retire still treating Covid19 long haul symptoms about 15 years from now.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/par ... NewsSearch

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technolo ... NewsSearch
After looking at data and weighing the risks and benefits, the CDC still recommends everyone, including children as young as 12, get vaccinated.


Now, I will fully admit the UK does a lot more data publishing. However, any vaccine risk is acute and risk to the virus for unvaccinated will grow with time (more exposure). So I respect the data presented, but I would like to see trend lines from day of 2nd dose. I would expect vaccine risk to be in the first 60 days. The risk from infections lasts until this ends.

Lightsaber

@BaconButty

Can you shed any light on the England daily rate of vaccine administration (7 day avg) dropping about 87% between end-May and now? Figures: May 27th - 514K ; Sep 22nd - 67K

Has the mass vaccination infrastructure been largely dismantled? If not, why is the number of daily jabs so tiny? You don't open facilities with a capacity to perform X activities a day and keep them open when activities have gradually reduced by 87%, do you?

There are about 3.5 million who have had a first jab but not a second; those aged 12-15 are to be vaccinated; the government has announced a programme to give a third booster to 30 million. I am baffled that the jab rate has sunk so low.

Data source: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... cinations/

art wrote:

@BaconButty

Can you shed any light on the England daily rate of vaccine administration (7 day avg) dropping about 87% between end-May and now? Figures: May 27th - 514K ; Sep 22nd - 67K

Has the mass vaccination infrastructure been largely dismantled? If not, why is the number of daily jabs so tiny? You don't open facilities with a capacity to perform X activities a day and keep them open when activities have gradually reduced by 87%, do you?

There are about 3.5 million who have had a first jab but not a second; those aged 12-15 are to be vaccinated; the government has announced a programme to give a third booster to 30 million. I am baffled that the jab rate has sunk so low.

Data source: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... cinations/

Only partly. The second doses are fairly straightforward. We're running out of people with single jabs. The 7 day average is 52K/day, 8 weeks ago the first doses were 38k/day. So the question is more "why higher". The answer is a bit interesting. The AZ program is pretty much at a close. The data released today has it at 24.8m first doses, 24m second doses. We'll probably end up with 100-200k more second doses, about 2.5-3% fall off - slightly better than expected. The mRna situation is on first sight worse, with second doses lagging substantially. For example, Pfizer 2nd doses were 19.1m on the 15th September, and 20.4 8 weeks earlier. I expect the reason is that on the 23rd July they shortened the gap between doses for under 40's from 12 to 8 weeks. However there will have been plenty that didn't change appointments, so we're now doing the kids on an 8 week schedule together with some on a 12 week - hence the increase.

First doses are a mystery though. Currently at 25k/day, 175k/week. That might have made sense last week, what you would expect for the tail-end stragglers, we're practically at 90% coverage in the eligible age groups for first doses. But as you said, we apparently started doing boosters and vaccinations in schools this week, we have the figures in for Monday to Wednesday and they haven't moved really. I appreciate there will be a ramp up, but still.

As for the facilities - kids are apparently being done in Schools. I'm surprised the whole vaccination infrastructure hasn't been dismantled and pushed to GP's and Pharmacies to be honest. They cope with the Flu jabs. What do you think?

The kids are already at school. While immediate side effects are rare or not occuring the kids will be around for an hour or more with help available. A team administering at school is going to be a lot more efficient (more shots administered per worker) than at a pharmacy (daughter does that). While parents can opt out of kids getting a shot (?), it can be somewhat assumed/confirmed all kids will get them.

With reference to England/UK:

BaconButty wrote:

... But as you said, we apparently started doing boosters and vaccinations in schools this week, we have the figures in for Monday to Wednesday and they haven't moved really. I appreciate there will be a ramp up, but still.

The NHS England stats I log have not yet been extended to show booster jabs administered, so I assume they have not started publishing them (if they have started being given).

BaconButty wrote:

As for the facilities - kids are apparently being done in Schools. I'm surprised the whole vaccination infrastructure hasn't been dismantled and pushed to GP's and Pharmacies to be honest. They cope with the Flu jabs. What do you think?

It would make economic sense to administer both flu and COVID-19 vaccination at the same time. As for a large number of vaccination centres remaining open, I don't know if those resources will or won't be necessary to give the mooted 30 million booster jabs in a timely manner. What definitely will be necessary will be to up the jab rate. It would take until early 2023 to finish giving those 30 million jabs (plus outstanding second jabs) at the current rate of <2,000,000 jabs a month.

I am curious about this: data about positive tests are released by many countries but I have not noticed the numbers broken down into infection of unvaccinated people and infection of fully vaccinated people. Would it not be a good idea to do so? For example, in UK around 67% of the population is fully vaccinated, There are around 30K-40K positive test results each day. What proportion is fully vaccinated people and what proportion unvaccinated? Does the 33% unvaccinated represent 33% of positive tests? 50%? 75%? 90%? It would be good to know.

CDC overrides panel and Frontline workers to get booster:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 835519001/

While it might only last 20 weeks, this should slow the spread in medical facilities where we naturally have many vulnerable.

flyguy89 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Yet there is spread among the children.

As to uptake, it looks like only 26% of surveyed parents will vaccinate their kids:
https://qz.com/2061791/pfizer-says-its- ... YPH_link_2

My math says this group (5-11) is only 10% of the population (excluding kids who somehow were vaccinated early). So with this being only about 2.5% of the population willing, I concede this won't make an overall huge impact. I believe that recent survey is probably accurate, or as close as possible.

Due to risk of long haul symptoms, it eventually makes sense to vaccinate the younger children. What vaccine is a different question. Locally, it won't be an issue. That creates a bubble, so to speak.

Every pediatrician I talk to says the vaccines make sense for children. Some advocate spreading out doses.

I appreciate the circumspect response. Strictly speaking of under-12s here, I would just want to fully understand the risks of both. There’s certainly spread among this group, but we do know they, mercifully, seem to do very well against the virus with severe pediatric cases and deaths pretty rare. Adverse vaccine events are also pretty rare, so I think it’s worth exploring more in-depth which of these rare events poses the greater risk if we’re talking blanket policy.

lightsaber wrote:

Pediatric cases are about a quarter of all cases and over 250,000. Going from memory, 75 million children of 330, they are getting infected at the same rate as adults (give or take).
https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-cases-a ... 18923.html

Worth noting here that this is a mish-mash of sub-18 age groups, so the numbers on under-12 pediatric cases is a bit more mixed.

lightsaber wrote:

However, any vaccine risk is acute and risk to the virus for unvaccinated will grow with time (more exposure).

That’s not exactly the case. An unvaccinated under-12 who catches and clears Covid decidedly does not face a growing risk from Covid at that point. The risk of a subsequent reinfection being worse than the first infection are likely very very small from my understanding.

My longhaul symptoms became worse with a 2nd exposure. People will get exposed multiple times.

There is also the risk of exposure increasing with time. You might get sick month one, or two or later. Every month the virus is endemic increases the exposure. Eventually, the child will get sick. I do not believe we are far along enough from first children's vaccinations to compare the numbers on risk. Wait for this winter's outbreak. That is when the vaccines, in my opinion, have to prove themselves. By February we'll know the true risk ratio.

We'll also start having kids infected again. I personally know a few people where the second round of Covid19 was more severe and had more long haul symptoms. A link example on a 25 year old who needed oxygen.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54512034

Most people overestimate the risk of vaccines and under estimate the risk from an illness. I accept spreading out the two doses. Heck, half the parents I know do so for regular vaccines.

Vaccines prevent some infections and if you cannot get it, you won't spread it. We're currently rationing care due to a lack of vaccinations:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... uxbndlbing

Unfortunately, one of my coworker's toddler now has coronavirus (both parents vaccinated, probably daycare). My boss has had to take two days off from work to deal with this. It would be good to slow the spread, as vaccines do.

We're also talking young boys and it has been discussed since at least last November that Covid19 reduces male fertility (I might be middle ages, but I am not happy to know that):
https://thestreetjournal.org/covid-19-c ... survivors/

A more scientific paper describing the testicular damage seen in males due to the virus:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7978437/

So risk to reward, I see a huge benefit vaccinating kids. It isn't just death we need to be concerned about.

Lightsaber

Just wanted to share some information about the pandemic in Chile, a country with high vaccination rates (74% of population fully vaccinated, 88% of the adult population fully vaccinated). The difference with other countries with similar numbers is that in Chile ~70% of doses adminstrated are Coronavac (Sinovac), 25% pfizer, and 5% Astrazeneca and Cansino. After a long 2nd wave with high number of infections and deaths despite heavy mobility restrictions (lockdowns, curfew, closed borders) and vaccination; mid June cases started to fall sharply. and by mid September, the country reached its lowest average number infections/day since the pandemic started beeing a real problem in Chile, in april 2020. Now there are much fewer restrictions than some months ago, with life getting back to normal little by little.
The first case of the Delta variant was discovered 3 months ago, and by the 1st week of september, over 60% of reported cases were Delta; its beleived that today it´s about 80%. Regarding Delta cases:
- 72% asymptomatic
- 60% non-vaccinated
In the last 2 weeks the number of daily infections started to slowly increase again, and higher numbers are expected in the next days, particularly considering that last weekend big national holidays were celebrated, being the 1st weekend since the pandemic started that chileans were allowed to freely travel across the country, whith families and friends gathering.
Its still to be seen how big this 3rd wave will be, and if the % of vaccination, the type of vaccines or other factors have helped to, so far, control the epidemic.

descl wrote:

Just wanted to share some information about the pandemic in Chile, a country with high vaccination rates (74% of population fully vaccinated, 88% of the adult population fully vaccinated). The difference with other countries with similar numbers is that in Chile ~70% of doses adminstrated are Coronavac (Sinovac), 25% pfizer, and 5% Astrazeneca and Cansino. After a long 2nd wave with high number of infections and deaths despite heavy mobility restrictions (lockdowns, curfew, closed borders) and vaccination; mid June cases started to fall sharply. and by mid September, the country reached its lowest average number infections/day since the pandemic started beeing a real problem in Chile, in april 2020. Now there are much fewer restrictions than some months ago, with life getting back to normal little by little.
The first case of the Delta variant was discovered 3 months ago, and by the 1st week of september, over 60% of reported cases were Delta; its beleived that today it´s about 80%. Regarding Delta cases:
- 72% asymptomatic
- 60% non-vaccinated
In the last 2 weeks the number of daily infections started to slowly increase again, and higher numbers are expected in the next days, particularly considering that last weekend big national holidays were celebrated, being the 1st weekend since the pandemic started that chileans were allowed to freely travel across the country, whith families and friends gathering.
Its still to be seen how big this 3rd wave will be, and if the % of vaccination, the type of vaccines or other factors have helped to, so far, control the epidemic.

Do you have links for your numbers?

In particular, is Chile doing boosters and children's vaccines.

Delta seems to favor opening up.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

descl wrote:

Just wanted to share some information about the pandemic in Chile, a country with high vaccination rates (74% of population fully vaccinated, 88% of the adult population fully vaccinated). The difference with other countries with similar numbers is that in Chile ~70% of doses adminstrated are Coronavac (Sinovac), 25% pfizer, and 5% Astrazeneca and Cansino. After a long 2nd wave with high number of infections and deaths despite heavy mobility restrictions (lockdowns, curfew, closed borders) and vaccination; mid June cases started to fall sharply. and by mid September, the country reached its lowest average number infections/day since the pandemic started beeing a real problem in Chile, in april 2020. Now there are much fewer restrictions than some months ago, with life getting back to normal little by little.
The first case of the Delta variant was discovered 3 months ago, and by the 1st week of september, over 60% of reported cases were Delta; its beleived that today it´s about 80%. Regarding Delta cases:
- 72% asymptomatic
- 60% non-vaccinated
In the last 2 weeks the number of daily infections started to slowly increase again, and higher numbers are expected in the next days, particularly considering that last weekend big national holidays were celebrated, being the 1st weekend since the pandemic started that chileans were allowed to freely travel across the country, whith families and friends gathering.
Its still to be seen how big this 3rd wave will be, and if the % of vaccination, the type of vaccines or other factors have helped to, so far, control the epidemic.

Do you have links for your numbers?

In particular, is Chile doing boosters and children's vaccines.

Delta seems to favor opening up.

Lightsaber

Here 2 links in spanish about about de Delta variant in Chile:
https://www.24horas.cl/nacional/chile-r ... io-4977802
https://vigilancia.ispch.gob.cl/app/varcovid

Yes, so far 2,9 million out of 13,4 million fully vaccinated adults have received their 3rd shot and 22% of children between 6-17 years old are fully vaccinated.

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021 ... -un-action
https://tass.com/world/1341987
Some countries around the world are complaining some other countries not recognizing some vaccines, like Chinese or Russian vaccines, describing it as "vaccine discrimination"

A lot of countries are still awaiting confirmation of the vaccines eligible by the USA for travel on 01 Nov 2021, AstraZeneca in particular is in question especially in the Caribbean where that has been the dominant vaccine and Pfizer and JJ have just arrived in the last couple months.

Neglected to post link, does not list eligible vaccines
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/20/us-to-e ... covid.html

c933103 wrote:

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021/09/730445/malaysia-slams-vaccine-discrimination-some-nations-calls-who-un-action
https://tass.com/world/1341987
Some countries around the world are complaining some other countries not recognizing some vaccines, like Chinese or Russian vaccines, describing it as "vaccine discrimination"

This will be a problem for a while.
I decided to look up what my Alma matter approves. The University decided to accept all FDA and WHO approved:
https://studenthealth.usc.edu/list-of-a ... -vaccines/
1.Pfizer
2. Moderna
3. Johnson & Johnson
4. AZ (incl. Covishield)
5. SinoVac
6. SinoPharm

Or mixed (Student health only gives 2nd dose of Pfizer as... that is what they stock).

That is in line with US travel policy:

The CDC says the US will accept full vaccination of travellers with any Covid-19 vaccine approved for emergency use by the World Health Organization, including those from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson used in the US. Other vaccines are also approved by the WHO and used widely around the world, including from AstraZeneca and China’s Sinovac, with varying degrees of effectiveness against COVID-19 and its more transmissible delta variant. The WHO is reviewing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine but hasn’t approved it.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronaviru ... e-approved

So pretty straight forward. Present enough data to the WHO or FDA for approval for travel to the USA. While there are aspects of the WHO I criticize, they are a reasonable clearinghouse for travel vaccination approvals.
7. Sputnik V has applied for approval (see above link). I do not know the status. When the WHO gets the data they need, it shall be approved.
8. Novavax has applied for approval: https://www.ft.com/content/e87e092b-543 ... 97fe1589a7
9. Bharat Biotech Covaxin applied, but must answer WHO's technical questions (to be fair, only a few week delay expected): https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wh ... uxbndlbing

On Sputnik V, Russia has consistently refused data. When they provide the required data, I'm sure they'll be certified:
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/27/bra ... 19-vaccine

The original link only gives the UK as an example. The UK accepts their vaccines, EMA (EU approved) and FDA approved (USA vaccines).
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-t ... se-restart

But the UK just agreed to accept UAE vaccine certificates. Since that includes Sinopharm, I believe that opens up the vaccines (note: did the UK accept, does this require a booster? I don't know the answers.)
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/travel- ... e-approval
https://u.ae/en/information-and-service ... in-the-uae

EU requires EMA approved: Pfizer, Moderna, Johson & Johnson, and AZ
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/378861


Now the question is children. e.g., Sinovac is approved for kids 3-17, soon Pfizer for 5+. One of my coworkers had a scare (false alarm toddler had coronavirus, instead a horribly stuffy cold with bad lung congestion, but symptoms and the speed of spread had the wrong virus identified, mea culpa), but as children spread diseases (as every parent knows), I suspect they'll have to be included in the vaccine travel mandates. (Link just has vaccine safe and effective for kids.)
https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/chinas- ... y-response

I am of the opinion there needs to be a travel vaccine mandate. I strongly suspect a booster requirement will be added at some future time.

I think WHO approval is a fair guideline. While I am a huge advocate of booster shots, I'm also first an aviation enthusiast (this is an aviation blog), so we need safety but also to end the prohibition on travel. It looks like Europe is insisting they personally review the data. My vote is FDA, UK, EMA, or WHO authorization is good enough. That will soon get us to 8 or 9 approved vaccines. More to follow.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021/09/730445/malaysia-slams-vaccine-discrimination-some-nations-calls-who-un-action
https://tass.com/world/1341987
Some countries around the world are complaining some other countries not recognizing some vaccines, like Chinese or Russian vaccines, describing it as "vaccine discrimination"

This will be a problem for a while.
I decided to look up what my Alma matter approves. The University decided to accept all FDA and WHO approved:
https://studenthealth.usc.edu/list-of-a ... -vaccines/
1.Pfizer
2. Moderna
3. Johnson & Johnson
4. AZ (incl. Covishield)
5. SinoVac
6. SinoPharm

Or mixed (Student health only gives 2nd dose of Pfizer as... that is what they stock).

That is in line with US travel policy:

The CDC says the US will accept full vaccination of travellers with any Covid-19 vaccine approved for emergency use by the World Health Organization, including those from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson used in the US. Other vaccines are also approved by the WHO and used widely around the world, including from AstraZeneca and China’s Sinovac, with varying degrees of effectiveness against COVID-19 and its more transmissible delta variant. The WHO is reviewing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine but hasn’t approved it.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronaviru ... e-approved

So pretty straight forward. Present enough data to the WHO or FDA for approval for travel to the USA. While there are aspects of the WHO I criticize, they are a reasonable clearinghouse for travel vaccination approvals.
7. Sputnik V has applied for approval (see above link). I do not know the status. When the WHO gets the data they need, it shall be approved.
8. Novavax has applied for approval: https://www.ft.com/content/e87e092b-543 ... 97fe1589a7
9. Bharat Biotech Covaxin applied, but must answer WHO's technical questions (to be fair, only a few week delay expected): https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wh ... uxbndlbing

On Sputnik V, Russia has consistently refused data. When they provide the required data, I'm sure they'll be certified:
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/27/bra ... 19-vaccine

The original link only gives the UK as an example. The UK accepts their vaccines, EMA (EU approved) and FDA approved (USA vaccines).
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-t ... se-restart

But the UK just agreed to accept UAE vaccine certificates. Since that includes Sinopharm, I believe that opens up the vaccines (note: did the UK accept, does this require a booster? I don't know the answers.)
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/travel- ... e-approval
https://u.ae/en/information-and-service ... in-the-uae

EU requires EMA approved: Pfizer, Moderna, Johson & Johnson, and AZ
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/378861


Now the question is children. e.g., Sinovac is approved for kids 3-17, soon Pfizer for 5+. One of my coworkers had a scare (false alarm toddler had coronavirus, instead a horribly stuffy cold with bad lung congestion, but symptoms and the speed of spread had the wrong virus identified, mea culpa), but as children spread diseases (as every parent knows), I suspect they'll have to be included in the vaccine travel mandates. (Link just has vaccine safe and effective for kids.)
https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/chinas- ... y-response

I am of the opinion there needs to be a travel vaccine mandate. I strongly suspect a booster requirement will be added at some future time.

I think WHO approval is a fair guideline. While I am a huge advocate of booster shots, I'm also first an aviation enthusiast (this is an aviation blog), so we need safety but also to end the prohibition on travel. It looks like Europe is insisting they personally review the data. My vote is FDA, UK, EMA, or WHO authorization is good enough. That will soon get us to 8 or 9 approved vaccines. More to follow.

Lightsaber

I find it absurd that all countries do not simply accept vaccines approved by the WHO. So simple.

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021/09/730445/malaysia-slams-vaccine-discrimination-some-nations-calls-who-un-action
https://tass.com/world/1341987
Some countries around the world are complaining some other countries not recognizing some vaccines, like Chinese or Russian vaccines, describing it as "vaccine discrimination"

This will be a problem for a while.
I decided to look up what my Alma matter approves. The University decided to accept all FDA and WHO approved:
https://studenthealth.usc.edu/list-of-a ... -vaccines/
1.Pfizer
2. Moderna
3. Johnson & Johnson
4. AZ (incl. Covishield)
5. SinoVac
6. SinoPharm

Or mixed (Student health only gives 2nd dose of Pfizer as... that is what they stock).

That is in line with US travel policy:

The CDC says the US will accept full vaccination of travellers with any Covid-19 vaccine approved for emergency use by the World Health Organization, including those from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson used in the US. Other vaccines are also approved by the WHO and used widely around the world, including from AstraZeneca and China’s Sinovac, with varying degrees of effectiveness against COVID-19 and its more transmissible delta variant. The WHO is reviewing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine but hasn’t approved it.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronaviru ... e-approved

So pretty straight forward. Present enough data to the WHO or FDA for approval for travel to the USA. While there are aspects of the WHO I criticize, they are a reasonable clearinghouse for travel vaccination approvals.
7. Sputnik V has applied for approval (see above link). I do not know the status. When the WHO gets the data they need, it shall be approved.
8. Novavax has applied for approval: https://www.ft.com/content/e87e092b-543 ... 97fe1589a7
9. Bharat Biotech Covaxin applied, but must answer WHO's technical questions (to be fair, only a few week delay expected): https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wh ... uxbndlbing

On Sputnik V, Russia has consistently refused data. When they provide the required data, I'm sure they'll be certified:
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/27/bra ... 19-vaccine

The original link only gives the UK as an example. The UK accepts their vaccines, EMA (EU approved) and FDA approved (USA vaccines).
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-t ... se-restart

But the UK just agreed to accept UAE vaccine certificates. Since that includes Sinopharm, I believe that opens up the vaccines (note: did the UK accept, does this require a booster? I don't know the answers.)
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/travel- ... e-approval
https://u.ae/en/information-and-service ... in-the-uae

EU requires EMA approved: Pfizer, Moderna, Johson & Johnson, and AZ
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/378861


Now the question is children. e.g., Sinovac is approved for kids 3-17, soon Pfizer for 5+. One of my coworkers had a scare (false alarm toddler had coronavirus, instead a horribly stuffy cold with bad lung congestion, but symptoms and the speed of spread had the wrong virus identified, mea culpa), but as children spread diseases (as every parent knows), I suspect they'll have to be included in the vaccine travel mandates. (Link just has vaccine safe and effective for kids.)
https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/chinas- ... y-response

I am of the opinion there needs to be a travel vaccine mandate. I strongly suspect a booster requirement will be added at some future time.

I think WHO approval is a fair guideline. While I am a huge advocate of booster shots, I'm also first an aviation enthusiast (this is an aviation blog), so we need safety but also to end the prohibition on travel. It looks like Europe is insisting they personally review the data. My vote is FDA, UK, EMA, or WHO authorization is good enough. That will soon get us to 8 or 9 approved vaccines. More to follow.

Lightsaber

UK is a bit special in the sense that it only accept vaccine certificate from selected countries, so there are people who have received vaccines donated by UK but cannot be avcepted as a proof of vaccine to travel to rhe UK quarantine free due to their demand on format and issuer of vaccine proof

And then there's a problem on whether WHO will accept vaccines that use immunobridging as third stage trial instead of the orthodox clinical trial with regular control group

art wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021/09/730445/malaysia-slams-vaccine-discrimination-some-nations-calls-who-un-action
https://tass.com/world/1341987
Some countries around the world are complaining some other countries not recognizing some vaccines, like Chinese or Russian vaccines, describing it as "vaccine discrimination"

This will be a problem for a while.
I decided to look up what my Alma matter approves. The University decided to accept all FDA and WHO approved:
https://studenthealth.usc.edu/list-of-a ... -vaccines/
1.Pfizer
2. Moderna
3. Johnson & Johnson
4. AZ (incl. Covishield)
5. SinoVac
6. SinoPharm

Or mixed (Student health only gives 2nd dose of Pfizer as... that is what they stock).

That is in line with US travel policy:

The CDC says the US will accept full vaccination of travellers with any Covid-19 vaccine approved for emergency use by the World Health Organization, including those from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson used in the US. Other vaccines are also approved by the WHO and used widely around the world, including from AstraZeneca and China’s Sinovac, with varying degrees of effectiveness against COVID-19 and its more transmissible delta variant. The WHO is reviewing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine but hasn’t approved it.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronaviru ... e-approved

So pretty straight forward. Present enough data to the WHO or FDA for approval for travel to the USA. While there are aspects of the WHO I criticize, they are a reasonable clearinghouse for travel vaccination approvals.
7. Sputnik V has applied for approval (see above link). I do not know the status. When the WHO gets the data they need, it shall be approved.
8. Novavax has applied for approval: https://www.ft.com/content/e87e092b-543 ... 97fe1589a7
9. Bharat Biotech Covaxin applied, but must answer WHO's technical questions (to be fair, only a few week delay expected): https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wh ... uxbndlbing

On Sputnik V, Russia has consistently refused data. When they provide the required data, I'm sure they'll be certified:
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/27/bra ... 19-vaccine

The original link only gives the UK as an example. The UK accepts their vaccines, EMA (EU approved) and FDA approved (USA vaccines).
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-t ... se-restart

But the UK just agreed to accept UAE vaccine certificates. Since that includes Sinopharm, I believe that opens up the vaccines (note: did the UK accept, does this require a booster? I don't know the answers.)
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/travel- ... e-approval
https://u.ae/en/information-and-service ... in-the-uae

EU requires EMA approved: Pfizer, Moderna, Johson & Johnson, and AZ
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/378861


Now the question is children. e.g., Sinovac is approved for kids 3-17, soon Pfizer for 5+. One of my coworkers had a scare (false alarm toddler had coronavirus, instead a horribly stuffy cold with bad lung congestion, but symptoms and the speed of spread had the wrong virus identified, mea culpa), but as children spread diseases (as every parent knows), I suspect they'll have to be included in the vaccine travel mandates. (Link just has vaccine safe and effective for kids.)
https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/chinas- ... y-response

I am of the opinion there needs to be a travel vaccine mandate. I strongly suspect a booster requirement will be added at some future time.

I think WHO approval is a fair guideline. While I am a huge advocate of booster shots, I'm also first an aviation enthusiast (this is an aviation blog), so we need safety but also to end the prohibition on travel. It looks like Europe is insisting they personally review the data. My vote is FDA, UK, EMA, or WHO authorization is good enough. That will soon get us to 8 or 9 approved vaccines. More to follow.

Lightsaber

I find it absurd that all countries do not simply accept vaccines approved by the WHO. So simple.

While I find accepting the WHO recommendations acceptable, I don't find insisting on tighter guidelines absurd. For example, the WHO has no booster mandate (for obvious reasons they are focusing on 1st vaccinations). Because of the persistence of this virus, I accept the need for boosters. I also accept the data from many vaccines has been a challenge.

e.g., WHO cares about 1.1 million kids lost a parent (mostly fathers, so called paternal orphans) and that grows to 1.5 million lost a caregiver when caregiving grandparents are added:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(21)01253-8/fulltext
Note: Most were not "double orphans" or what we first think of as an orphan. Not just because of this (I think its too course to just use deaths as a benchmark, but it certainly is one of the more important benchmarks), we need to get vaccines to everyone.

There is discussion about needing a "universal vaccine" in addition to the main course. It is very unlikely for the WHO to demand such a course of action anytime soon on any booster, so I understand the nations stance:
https://qz.com/2054159/a-universal-covi ... -variants/

As an aviation fan, I want travel to safely restart. But to be fair, travel is a luxury. After such a prolonged viral outbreak, steps must be done to minimize new variant introduction. If that means the EMA must approve a vaccine to enter certain nations, that means the EMA must approve a vaccine. At least we are exiting travel bans thanks to vaccines. An imperfect exit, but still a good start.

Lightsaber
Late edit:
It looks like Israel is finally controlling Covid19 cases. Cases peaked September 15th and are down by half:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~ISR~ARE

The vaccination doses per day peaked September 4th. With how long boosters take to be effective, I do not know if Israel just had enough boosters or the Delta variant has run its course in Israel.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... BR~USA~ISR

Considering the UK has more vaccinated (albeit, not so many with boosters), I think boosters helped, but are a secondary factor in getting Israel out of the latest surge:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ID_WRL~ISR

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021/09/730445/malaysia-slams-vaccine-discrimination-some-nations-calls-who-un-action
https://tass.com/world/1341987
Some countries around the world are complaining some other countries not recognizing some vaccines, like Chinese or Russian vaccines, describing it as "vaccine discrimination"

This will be a problem for a while.
I decided to look up what my Alma matter approves. The University decided to accept all FDA and WHO approved:
https://studenthealth.usc.edu/list-of-a ... -vaccines/
1.Pfizer
2. Moderna
3. Johnson & Johnson
4. AZ (incl. Covishield)
5. SinoVac
6. SinoPharm

Or mixed (Student health only gives 2nd dose of Pfizer as... that is what they stock).

That is in line with US travel policy:

The CDC says the US will accept full vaccination of travellers with any Covid-19 vaccine approved for emergency use by the World Health Organization, including those from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson used in the US. Other vaccines are also approved by the WHO and used widely around the world, including from AstraZeneca and China’s Sinovac, with varying degrees of effectiveness against COVID-19 and its more transmissible delta variant. The WHO is reviewing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine but hasn’t approved it.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronaviru ... e-approved

So pretty straight forward. Present enough data to the WHO or FDA for approval for travel to the USA. While there are aspects of the WHO I criticize, they are a reasonable clearinghouse for travel vaccination approvals.
7. Sputnik V has applied for approval (see above link). I do not know the status. When the WHO gets the data they need, it shall be approved.
8. Novavax has applied for approval: https://www.ft.com/content/e87e092b-543 ... 97fe1589a7
9. Bharat Biotech Covaxin applied, but must answer WHO's technical questions (to be fair, only a few week delay expected): https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wh ... uxbndlbing

On Sputnik V, Russia has consistently refused data. When they provide the required data, I'm sure they'll be certified:
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/27/bra ... 19-vaccine

The original link only gives the UK as an example. The UK accepts their vaccines, EMA (EU approved) and FDA approved (USA vaccines).
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-t ... se-restart

But the UK just agreed to accept UAE vaccine certificates. Since that includes Sinopharm, I believe that opens up the vaccines (note: did the UK accept, does this require a booster? I don't know the answers.)
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/travel- ... e-approval
https://u.ae/en/information-and-service ... in-the-uae

EU requires EMA approved: Pfizer, Moderna, Johson & Johnson, and AZ
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/378861


Now the question is children. e.g., Sinovac is approved for kids 3-17, soon Pfizer for 5+. One of my coworkers had a scare (false alarm toddler had coronavirus, instead a horribly stuffy cold with bad lung congestion, but symptoms and the speed of spread had the wrong virus identified, mea culpa), but as children spread diseases (as every parent knows), I suspect they'll have to be included in the vaccine travel mandates. (Link just has vaccine safe and effective for kids.)
https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/chinas- ... y-response

I am of the opinion there needs to be a travel vaccine mandate. I strongly suspect a booster requirement will be added at some future time.

I think WHO approval is a fair guideline. While I am a huge advocate of booster shots, I'm also first an aviation enthusiast (this is an aviation blog), so we need safety but also to end the prohibition on travel. It looks like Europe is insisting they personally review the data. My vote is FDA, UK, EMA, or WHO authorization is good enough. That will soon get us to 8 or 9 approved vaccines. More to follow.

Lightsaber

UK is a bit special in the sense that it only accept vaccine certificate from selected countries, so there are people who have received vaccines donated by UK but cannot be avcepted as a proof of vaccine to travel to rhe UK quarantine free due to their demand on format and issuer of vaccine proof

And then there's a problem on whether WHO will accept vaccines that use immunobridging as third stage trial instead of the orthodox clinical trial with regular control group

The UK not accepting the vaccine they donated is... odd. I see one former colony is unhappy:
https://news.yahoo.com/south-africa-see ... 51890.html

As to format, I somewhat understand. They need to quickly read type of vaccine and dates (possibly for boosters).

I've already given my support for UK, FDA (US), EMA (Europe) and WHO approved vaccines with a condition that countries may require boosters that could be on a timeframe that is very Vaccine specific. So my commenting won't change the situation.

I do note South Africa has reduced the case rate (I don't do the numbers due to a huge difference in how much countries test). But SA seems safe, now.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=GBR~ZAF

It might be a mechanism that for over a month, SA, as an example, has little demand for vaccines. Second link shows shots are just not getting into arms:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rom-supply
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... ry=GBR~ZAF

I can only speculate that when a country has a low vaccination rate and adequate supplies of vaccine, it is perceived as high risk:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... F~OWID_WRL

Note, I just picked SA as there were lots of links easy to find, I'm certain many other countries have complaints. The question is, what is the case and vaccination rates? Unfortunately with vaccines, we get guilt by association with the contact risk.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Since we will obviously need a variant booster, in my opinion, we'll need high production rates. We've talked forever about need a booster every year a la the flu shot. So be it. Possibly more often.

How feasible are variant boosters in a timely fashion? Delta was first recorded under a year ago. It became a Variant of concern in May.

The earliest documented COVID-19 case caused by the delta variant (B.1.617.2) was found in the Indian state of Maharashtra back in October 2020, and the variant has since spread widely throughout India and across the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) labeled it a "variant of concern" (VOC) on May 11.

https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-what-d ... a-57949754

How long does it take to develop a vaccine targeted at a particular variant and to produce billions of doses from the time it is identified as a variant of concern? Can it be done fast enough to seriously mitigate the effect of new, more contagious/virulent strains? I don't know but we might end up producing a vast amount of vaccine too late for it to be greatly beneficial. Indeed, the variant concerned might already be outperformed by a newer variant by the time the booster for the older version is available in large volumes.

On the tack of a booster, double vaccination reduces hospitalisation and death by a massive amount in people who nevertheless become infected. So why not just let them catch COVID-19? I understand that infection boosts antibody levels greatly. To me it would be better to get everyone in the world double vaccinated before adminstering a third dose. I believe that transmission is the most likely scenario for mutation of the virus ergo limiting transmission everywhere will give the most benefit to all us earthlings.

What I find interesting is the lack of coverage on just how stupid the Australian and Indian governments were in not taking Moderna up on their offers to make their vaccine in those countries, given just how effective it is.

art wrote:

How long does it take to develop a vaccine targeted at a particular variant and to produce billions of doses from the time it is identified as a variant of concern? Can it be done fast enough to seriously mitigate the effect of new, more contagious/virulent strains? I don't know but we might end up producing a vast amount of vaccine too late for it to be greatly beneficial. Indeed, the variant concerned might already be outperformed by a newer variant by the time the booster for the older version is available in large volumes.

On the tack of a booster, double vaccination reduces hospitalisation and death by a massive amount in people who nevertheless become infected. So why not just let them catch COVID-19? I understand that infection boosts antibody levels greatly. To me it would be better to get everyone in the world double vaccinated before adminstering a third dose. I believe that transmission is the most likely scenario for mutation of the virus ergo limiting transmission everywhere will give the most benefit to all us earthlings.

Development is easy but IIRC it would have to go through trials that would hold it up from being deployed to the masses right away. That would take six months or longer.

Odds are that the virus will become less virulent over time and 18 months is a long time to us but not for evolution, its next to nothing. However the less sick a virus makes its host the more successful its going to be.

It's hard to pinpoint whether it is in fact more virulent because there are so many factors at play. It's infecting children at a higher rate but it that because of the strain or the fact that children are the only demographic that hasn't been vaccinated.

In terms of the booster I agree, let those who have had two shots get the virus infected and get the booster from that. Long haul symptoms may be an issue to not permit this but then we need a better vaccine or treatments to combat this which the latter is lacking. Not everyone can get regeneron on the notice of a positive test like Joe Rogan did.

It makes my blood boil that the experts and media don't speak about natural immunity when studies show its robust. While vaccination does provide protection your body only recognizes the spike protein which can change but usually not enough to completely stamp out any immunity but the clock is ticking much faster as now there is evolutionary pressure on the spike protein to mutate to evade immunity. Natural infection would teach your body to recognize the whole virus and you would have more protection from it as the virus can change one protein or texture but can't change them all at once. Add in vaccination and you face minimal risk of severe illness from Covid. I theorize this happens for other infections all of the time you just don't get sick from the re-infection and unless you are tested you wouldn't know. There are probably thousands if not millions of people who are vaccinated for Covid, got the infection, showed no symptoms and never got tested and were none the wiser.

Public Health won't do this because it will create a surge on hospitals as vaccination rates aren't high enough but this is what the UK seems to be doing. Also the need for 3rd doses in the west is western greed, I stand by this opinion 100% and the US needs to get the rest of their population to get dose 1 before offering dose 3 to healthy people.

We know this crisis isn't over for anyone until its over for everyone and some people may need 3rd doses but not everyone. The US and especially Israel talking about a bi-annual shot while Asia and Africa have low rates is not constructive to end this pandemic especially if a variant comes along that renders the vaccines useless and we are back to March 2020 again.

Do any of you think the public is going to take that nicely? I see mass civil unrest and blame pointed right at the experts if this happens.

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

This will be a problem for a while.
I decided to look up what my Alma matter approves. The University decided to accept all FDA and WHO approved:
https://studenthealth.usc.edu/list-of-a ... -vaccines/
1.Pfizer
2. Moderna
3. Johnson & Johnson
4. AZ (incl. Covishield)
5. SinoVac
6. SinoPharm

Or mixed (Student health only gives 2nd dose of Pfizer as... that is what they stock).

That is in line with US travel policy:

The CDC says the US will accept full vaccination of travellers with any Covid-19 vaccine approved for emergency use by the World Health Organization, including those from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson used in the US. Other vaccines are also approved by the WHO and used widely around the world, including from AstraZeneca and China’s Sinovac, with varying degrees of effectiveness against COVID-19 and its more transmissible delta variant. The WHO is reviewing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine but hasn’t approved it.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronaviru ... e-approved

So pretty straight forward. Present enough data to the WHO or FDA for approval for travel to the USA. While there are aspects of the WHO I criticize, they are a reasonable clearinghouse for travel vaccination approvals.
7. Sputnik V has applied for approval (see above link). I do not know the status. When the WHO gets the data they need, it shall be approved.
8. Novavax has applied for approval: https://www.ft.com/content/e87e092b-543 ... 97fe1589a7
9. Bharat Biotech Covaxin applied, but must answer WHO's technical questions (to be fair, only a few week delay expected): https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wh ... uxbndlbing

On Sputnik V, Russia has consistently refused data. When they provide the required data, I'm sure they'll be certified:
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/27/bra ... 19-vaccine

The original link only gives the UK as an example. The UK accepts their vaccines, EMA (EU approved) and FDA approved (USA vaccines).
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-t ... se-restart

But the UK just agreed to accept UAE vaccine certificates. Since that includes Sinopharm, I believe that opens up the vaccines (note: did the UK accept, does this require a booster? I don't know the answers.)
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/travel- ... e-approval
https://u.ae/en/information-and-service ... in-the-uae

EU requires EMA approved: Pfizer, Moderna, Johson & Johnson, and AZ
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/378861


Now the question is children. e.g., Sinovac is approved for kids 3-17, soon Pfizer for 5+. One of my coworkers had a scare (false alarm toddler had coronavirus, instead a horribly stuffy cold with bad lung congestion, but symptoms and the speed of spread had the wrong virus identified, mea culpa), but as children spread diseases (as every parent knows), I suspect they'll have to be included in the vaccine travel mandates. (Link just has vaccine safe and effective for kids.)
https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/chinas- ... y-response

I am of the opinion there needs to be a travel vaccine mandate. I strongly suspect a booster requirement will be added at some future time.

I think WHO approval is a fair guideline. While I am a huge advocate of booster shots, I'm also first an aviation enthusiast (this is an aviation blog), so we need safety but also to end the prohibition on travel. It looks like Europe is insisting they personally review the data. My vote is FDA, UK, EMA, or WHO authorization is good enough. That will soon get us to 8 or 9 approved vaccines. More to follow.

Lightsaber

UK is a bit special in the sense that it only accept vaccine certificate from selected countries, so there are people who have received vaccines donated by UK but cannot be avcepted as a proof of vaccine to travel to rhe UK quarantine free due to their demand on format and issuer of vaccine proof

And then there's a problem on whether WHO will accept vaccines that use immunobridging as third stage trial instead of the orthodox clinical trial with regular control group

The UK not accepting the vaccine they donated is... odd. I see one former colony is unhappy:
https://news.yahoo.com/south-africa-see ... 51890.html

As to format, I somewhat understand. They need to quickly read type of vaccine and dates (possibly for boosters).

I've already given my support for UK, FDA (US), EMA (Europe) and WHO approved vaccines with a condition that countries may require boosters that could be on a timeframe that is very Vaccine specific. So my commenting won't change the situation.

I do note South Africa has reduced the case rate (I don't do the numbers due to a huge difference in how much countries test). But SA seems safe, now.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=GBR~ZAF

It might be a mechanism that for over a month, SA, as an example, has little demand for vaccines. Second link shows shots are just not getting into arms:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rom-supply
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... ry=GBR~ZAF

I can only speculate that when a country has a low vaccination rate and adequate supplies of vaccine, it is perceived as high risk:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... F~OWID_WRL

Note, I just picked SA as there were lots of links easy to find, I'm certain many other countries have complaints. The question is, what is the case and vaccination rates? Unfortunately with vaccines, we get guilt by association with the contact risk.

Lightsaber

I think that is something have to do with how each countries issue their vaccine certification. Like apparently Hong Kong government need to modify their vaccine certificated in order to include date of birth of the vaccinated individual in order to make it being accepted by the UK. And there might be a number of other things that UK want to be up to certain sort of standard.

c933103 wrote:

I think that is something have to do with how each countries issue their vaccine certification. Like apparently Hong Kong government need to modify their vaccine certificated in order to include date of birth of the vaccinated individual in order to make it being accepted by the UK. And there might be a number of other things that UK want to be up to certain sort of standard.

So in simple terms it has nothing to do with the virus or the vaccine but an administrative procedure, like being able to tie the vaccine card / certificate to the travelers passport or visa?
Somewhat different from the USA who have donated AZ vaccines to Canada and Mexico but are still coy about whether come Nov-2021 they will accept those vaccinated travelers.

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

UK is a bit special in the sense that it only accept vaccine certificate from selected countries, so there are people who have received vaccines donated by UK but cannot be avcepted as a proof of vaccine to travel to rhe UK quarantine free due to their demand on format and issuer of vaccine proof

And then there's a problem on whether WHO will accept vaccines that use immunobridging as third stage trial instead of the orthodox clinical trial with regular control group

The UK not accepting the vaccine they donated is... odd. I see one former colony is unhappy:
https://news.yahoo.com/south-africa-see ... 51890.html

As to format, I somewhat understand. They need to quickly read type of vaccine and dates (possibly for boosters).

I've already given my support for UK, FDA (US), EMA (Europe) and WHO approved vaccines with a condition that countries may require boosters that could be on a timeframe that is very Vaccine specific. So my commenting won't change the situation.

I do note South Africa has reduced the case rate (I don't do the numbers due to a huge difference in how much countries test). But SA seems safe, now.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=GBR~ZAF

It might be a mechanism that for over a month, SA, as an example, has little demand for vaccines. Second link shows shots are just not getting into arms:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rom-supply
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... ry=GBR~ZAF

I can only speculate that when a country has a low vaccination rate and adequate supplies of vaccine, it is perceived as high risk:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... F~OWID_WRL

Note, I just picked SA as there were lots of links easy to find, I'm certain many other countries have complaints. The question is, what is the case and vaccination rates? Unfortunately with vaccines, we get guilt by association with the contact risk.

Lightsaber

I think that is something have to do with how each countries issue their vaccine certification. Like apparently Hong Kong government need to modify their vaccine certificated in order to include date of birth of the vaccinated individual in order to make it being accepted by the UK. And there might be a number of other things that UK want to be up to certain sort of standard.

That makes more sense. Paperwork to tie to a passport for international travel is reasonable.

Looking at my card it has my name (middle initial), birthdate, Date of each vaccine, vaccine type, lot #, explicitly restates Covid19 vaccine, location of vaccine, and time administered (a local site requirement for the 15 minute observation).

So not much required.

Lightsaber

Interesting, one hotel operator in Hawaii (7 resorts) now mandates vaccines for eligible age groups, with religious and health exemptions:
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/unvacci ... 17332.html

I would bet this becomes a trend. One of our vendors, Airbus USA, excludes any unvaccinated visitors from the buildings (I only know one site for certain, not Mobile). I had to send a copy of my vaccine card to inspect the plant/product. I know "soon", my employer will do the same. Soon probably being December 8th, but that is my guess.

Lightsaber

Some good news about treatments: "Merck Says Its Covid-19 Antiviral Pill Looks Good Against Variants"

Merck presented a study at a medical conference early Wednesday showing that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral is active against variants of the virus that causes the sickness.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/me ... latestnews

Very interesting read (or listen) on the dirty tricks campaign by Pfizer to discredit other vaccines. Particularly dispicable when you consider the collateral will be vaccine hesitancy particularly in Africa.
https://www.tortoisemedia.com/audio/pfizers-war/