Here in the UK cases are rising again as we move towards winter and the Flu season.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/20/uk/u ... index.html

"The UK has more new Covid-19 cases than France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined."

I feel that we need to go back to facemask wearing in any public space as soon as possible.

Boosters now approved in the United States for J&J and Moderna, also mixed boosters, for certain eligible groups (65+, special health conditions if younger, high public contact professions).
I'm eligible and although my first doses were Pfizer, I think I'll try for Moderna boost over the next week or so.

What strategy is required to suppress COVID-19 in a country with a reasonably high rate of full vaccination?

Here in the UK 68% of the population has been fully vaccinated yet the infection rate has increased considerably from Aug 21 when 62% were fully vaccinated (infection 7 day average Aug 21 being 31K; infection 7 day average Oct 21 being 46K). So we have increased protection on the one hand but have increased infection on the other. Can anyone offer an explanation?

I have my ideas but would be interested in the views of others.

By the way, I sought data under the UK Freedom of Information Act. The response (frustratingly):

Thank you for your communication dated 4 October 2021.

NHS England has assessed your communication as a request under the Freedom of Information (FOI) Act 2000. As such, your request is being dealt with under the terms of the FOI Act, and has been allocated the following reference number: FOI-2110-1579224.

Your exact request was:

“ I would like to know the breakdown of cases and deaths with regard to vaccination status. Please furnish the following information:

a) percentage breakdown of people admitted to hospital

1 with no vaccination
2 with 1 dose of vaccination (of 2 required)
3 fully vaccinated (1 of 1 dose required or 2 of 2 doses required)

b) percentage breakdown of people who die with COVID-19 diagnosed with 28 days

1 with no vaccination
2 with 1 dose of vaccination (of 2 required)
3 fully vaccinated (1 of 1 dose required or 2 of 2 doses required)”


Hospital admissions by vaccine status:


NHS England does not hold this data.

Nonsense, I think. When the worst epidemic since 1917-1920 hits the country, data as I requested is not stored! A John MacInroe response would be apt here, I think!

Valid epidemiology information is surprisingly difficult and expensive to gather, process, and validate. Our county and state have been required by these limitations to repeatedly recast their published results. Central governments hopefully will spend some time and money on better and more consistent reporting and processing of this information. Also up to date pandemic supplies and a strategy for alloting and delivering them was lacking. That information is essential for putting in place a strategy for dealing with epidemics.

art wrote:

What strategy is required to suppress COVID-19 in a country with a reasonably high rate of full vaccination?

Here in the UK 68% of the population has been fully vaccinated yet the infection rate has increased considerably from Aug 21 when 62% were fully vaccinated (infection 7 day average Aug 21 being 31K; infection 7 day average Oct 21 being 46K). So we have increased protection on the one hand but have increased infection on the other. Can anyone offer an explanation?

I have my ideas but would be interested in the views of others.

By the way, I sought data under the UK Freedom of Information Act. The response (frustratingly):

Thank you for your communication dated 4 October 2021.

NHS England has assessed your communication as a request under the Freedom of Information (FOI) Act 2000. As such, your request is being dealt with under the terms of the FOI Act, and has been allocated the following reference number: FOI-2110-1579224.

Your exact request was:

“ I would like to know the breakdown of cases and deaths with regard to vaccination status. Please furnish the following information:

a) percentage breakdown of people admitted to hospital

1 with no vaccination
2 with 1 dose of vaccination (of 2 required)
3 fully vaccinated (1 of 1 dose required or 2 of 2 doses required)

b) percentage breakdown of people who die with COVID-19 diagnosed with 28 days

1 with no vaccination
2 with 1 dose of vaccination (of 2 required)
3 fully vaccinated (1 of 1 dose required or 2 of 2 doses required)”


Hospital admissions by vaccine status:


NHS England does not hold this data.

Nonsense, I think. When the worst epidemic since 1917-1920 hits the country, data as I requested is not stored! A John MacInroe response would be apt here, I think!

So 68% is actually quite low in terms of developed nations today and probably not enough to prevent a run on hospitals from yes primarily unvaccinated and immunocompromised people but if that happens the vaccinated will have to pay for it unfortunately. In Canada where were are in the mid 80% of 12+ vaccinations we are still in most places using the swiss cheese model that Lightsaber has a diagram for in reply 153 and its working in most places. What really gets us out is not 3rd doses (unless for vulnerable people, variant targeted, or that 80-90% are fully vaccinated), its vaccinated kids, and a very reliable therapeutic or ideally a few of them.

What I do see is that its very hard to let go with what is working even when the evidence suggests that a region is ready. In Ontario they are looking at removing all capacity restrictions and faced some serious backlash for letting sports and concert venues not have restrictions (besides masking, easy loophole out, nurse your beer) and not doing it for gyms and restaurants. I have heard some doctors try to spin this but at the end money talks and this decision was political. On top of this we have indoor masking and a vaccine passport for non-essential activities.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/editoria ... l-business

https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ ... -on-friday

As to your last point. Just because someone is a medical official or in politics doesn't make them smarter than the average person, or a better communicator.
As I have gotten older I have realized that just because someone like Fauci has an expertise in infectious disease doesn't mean he is effective in navigating public health policy and even those who run the CDC have been pretty dismal in communicating policy guidelines.

Someone who is generally good at both is a rare finds and IIRC Portugal has been very successful at vaccinating had actual communicators (PR, marketing people) present the why behind vaccination.
In the case of Portugal it was a general who did the talking and usually they don't spin anything because they are there not to.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/202 ... ffort.html

When the fools who run the CDC are talking (at least the ones talking to the media, obviously the entire CDC isn't stupid) and saying nothing will change even when vaccinated, the incentive is lost

When the fools who run the CDC are talking (at least the ones talking to the media, obviously the entire CDC isn't stupid) and saying nothing will change even when vaccinated, the incentive is lost

I am clarifying that the CDC are fools in the methods of their communication. I am not attacking their competence as doctors or epidemiologists, just their ability to communicate with the public.

Looking at the Washington Post US map, toggles between cases and deaths per 100K, I see in Washington state that cases are more evenly spread throughout the state than are deaths. My reading of that is in any group of more than a several dozen people there is a fair possibility of at least 1 person active with Covid. Counties with more vaccinated and more careful people, especially those who are vulnerable, are less likely to contract an infection. My own county which did so well for so long is now doing poorly. Our major defense industry is seeing only 50% or so vaccinated. The mandate shortly goes into effect. If my reading is correct we should be seeing a drop in case and death rate in another several weeks.

New Zealand is transitioning away from it' current 3 level covid alert system to a three colour traffic light system once 90% vaccination levels of eligible people, are reached in local district health boards. (NZ has age 12 and over eligible for vaccination)
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/454 ... -framework
So continuing a very conservative strategy and really the mechanics of not opening up until everybody in NZ has had reasonable opportunity to receive both doses.

Notable also is that the criteria is wider then merely vaccination levels alone. Case numbers, and trends are considered, as is hospital and isolation capacities.

We are still some distance from achieving the required vaccination levels.
Currently for eligible people at 69% fully vaccinated and 86% one dose. The big split is indicative of the late vaccine supply.
Unlimited vaccine supply was not achieved until mid September with the delivery of surplus doses from Spain and Denmark ahead of the very large scheduled deliveries from Pfizer in October. This delayed the commencement of the outreach programs to remote areas that already suffered from poor access to medical services, high levels of deprivation, and unfortunately also often poor engagement with officialdom.

Currently NZ has Auckland, and the area immediatly south of Auckland, in covid level 3, "lockdown with takeaways" with the rest of the country in level 2, open but with restrictions on gathering sizes , mandatory masks outdoors.
A delta outbreak is in the level 3 areas currently with case numbers doubling about every 12 days but modest by world standards, even Australasian standards, at 129 new cases yesterday and 51people in hospital, 5 in ICU.
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/m ... ministered.

So we still have a way to go in getting to that 90%.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/dis ... ccine-data.
A third primary dose of Pfizer is available to severly immunocompromised people. This is different from the proposed booster shot program yet to be announced.
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/m ... ompromised
Only 28 people have died of covid in NZ, and only 2 in the delta outbreak since mid August.
Estimated population of NZ 5.1 million.

A priority is opening the covid containment border between Auckland and the rest of NZ before Christmas, perhaps with both a requirement for both a negative covid test result and double vaccination.

Next priority will be relaxation of border control measures to allow stranded NZ'rs a path home without mandatory 14 day quarantine.
perhaps early in the New Year depending on how things go.

A general relaxation of border restrictions is later still. Perhaps Q2 next year?

lightsaber wrote:

StarAC17 wrote:

art wrote:

What strategy is required to suppress COVID-19 in a country with a reasonably high rate of full vaccination?

Here in the UK 68% of the population has been fully vaccinated yet the infection rate has increased considerably from Aug 21 when 62% were fully vaccinated (infection 7 day average Aug 21 being 31K; infection 7 day average Oct 21 being 46K). So we have increased protection on the one hand but have increased infection on the other. Can anyone offer an explanation?

I have my ideas but would be interested in the views of others.

By the way, I sought data under the UK Freedom of Information Act. The response (frustratingly):



Nonsense, I think. When the worst epidemic since 1917-1920 hits the country, data as I requested is not stored! A John MacInroe response would be apt here, I think!

So 68% is actually quite low in terms of developed nations today and probably not enough to prevent a run on hospitals from yes primarily unvaccinated and immunocompromised people but if that happens the vaccinated will have to pay for it unfortunately. In Canada where were are in the mid 80% of 12+ vaccinations we are still in most places using the swiss cheese model that Lightsaber has a diagram for in reply 153 and its working in most places. What really gets us out is not 3rd doses (unless for vulnerable people, variant targeted, or that 80-90% are fully vaccinated), its vaccinated kids, and a very reliable therapeutic or ideally a few of them.

What I do see is that its very hard to let go with what is working even when the evidence suggests that a region is ready. In Ontario they are looking at removing all capacity restrictions and faced some serious backlash for letting sports and concert venues not have restrictions (besides masking, easy loophole out, nurse your beer) and not doing it for gyms and restaurants. I have heard some doctors try to spin this but at the end money talks and this decision was political. On top of this we have indoor masking and a vaccine passport for non-essential activities.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/editoria ... l-business

https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ ... -on-friday

As to your last point. Just because someone is a medical official or in politics doesn't make them smarter than the average person, or a better communicator.
As I have gotten older I have realized that just because someone like Fauci has an expertise in infectious disease doesn't mean he is effective in navigating public health policy and even those who run the CDC have been pretty dismal in communicating policy guidelines.

Someone who is generally good at both is a rare finds and IIRC Portugal has been very successful at vaccinating had actual communicators (PR, marketing people) present the why behind vaccination.
In the case of Portugal it was a general who did the talking and usually they don't spin anything because they are there not to.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/202 ... ffort.html

When the fools who run the CDC are talking (at least the ones talking to the media, obviously the entire CDC isn't stupid) and saying nothing will change even when vaccinated, the incentive is lost

My math says 80% to 92% must be fully vaccinated before we have the what strategy will work. Not 80%+ of adults, but 80%+ of the total population.

Masks slow spread. Social distancing works.

I agree, the communication has be inconsistent and comes across as motivated... poorly. The CDC has great researchers and accountants to crunch numbers and suggest policy. After reading various medical journal papers, I do a better job communicating to those I know. Don't worry, you do not want an engineer communicating national health.

E.g., the booster communication is bad at all angles. A simple "we learned J&J is a two dose vaccine and others a three dose" is so much clearer than the current muck.

Graphs, were are the easy graphics? Long cover your... presentations take away. Short simple messaging gains trust with long discussion on CSPAN. The on/off masking is taking away from vaccination drives.

KISS isn't just for engineers.

Lightsaber

Your math is probably right and these goalposts have moved given the Delta variant. Public health officials in Ontario are stating that 90% is the target under Delta, at this point it is eligible people but I think as it becomes eligible for 5-11 in the next month or so we will keep masking indoors until they reach this threshold also.

Ontario averages 500 daily cases with a 1.5% positivity rate and population of 15 million. These are official tests and not rapid tests done and usually 25,000 per day are completed.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-repor ... -1.5634042

More than likely the kids will be vaccinated in the same proportion as the parents so if supply is available it can be done quickly.

We will agree to disagree on the boosters (for healthy people) and I am suspect if the companies are advocating them because to them that means $$$ in their pockets.

I think we can wait until there is one that actually targets Delta or a few of the variants. The vaccines do have a strong Cell mediated (T-cell) response and that will keep illness largely mild even if antibody levels drop.

I would rather the surplus shots go to places that are under vaccinated through COVAX for the time being.

lightsaber wrote:

My math says 80% to 92% must be fully vaccinated before we have the what strategy will work. Not 80%+ of adults, but 80%+ of the total population.

80% is not enough. I live in a region with 80% of the population vaccinated. Almost all restrictions are gone, no more Swiss cheese currently. Cases have started shooting up, hospitalisations following.

There is no herd immunity through natural immunity with this virus. Some regions in Iran apparently have estimated case numbers >200% of the population. And previous infection didn't prevent a bad outcome: the last wave was the deadliest.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mahan_Ghafar ... 66092?s=20 (Twitter thread from the scientist who did the research)
If this translates to immunity from vaccines, we will need very frequent boosters, and the immunity compromised in society have a serious problem.

GDB wrote:

scbriml wrote:

GDB wrote:

Had the booster yesterday, Pfizer, as before no ill effects, nor from my annual flu vaccine last week.

I had my flu jab last week, but haven’t been called for my Covid booster yet.

Likely due to me listed as taking immune suppressants, same reason with the flu one since 2000.

I asked about the booster at a pop-up vaccination site and was told boosters were not being scheduled until six months and one week after second vaccination. That's first week of November for me.

scbriml wrote:

I asked about the booster at a pop-up vaccination site and was told boosters were not being scheduled until six months and one week after second vaccination. That's first week of November for me.

December for me.

I see a late, large government reaction to the rising infection rate looming. The rise in the English population being vaccinated - currently at 74% first dosed, 68% fully dosed - is petering out at a level too low to stop the epidemic spiralling upwards without behavioural changes.

I think we are condemned to the prospect of intermittent lockdowns unless the government mandates vaccine passports for the use of shops, public transport and enclosed public spaces (pubs, theatres, night clubs etc). Currently there are millions of people here who have chosen to be petri dishes for COVID-19 or for their children to be petri dishes for the disease. The situation produced by giving the same access to services to people who decline vaccination as to those who accept is absurd.

Astonishingly on BBC news I have just heard a doctor saying that 7% of health workers are not vaccinated.

PS figures for % of population that had received 1st jab at the start of the following months

Mar 30%
Apr 47%
May 51%
Jun 59%
Jul 67%
Aug 70%
Sep 72%
Oct 73%

Does anybody have any views or ideas about the new delta-plus variant. Been reading it about but at the moment in time, seems restricted to UK only but in this day and age with civil aviation who knows

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58965650.amp

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59009293

pune wrote:

Does anybody have any views or ideas about the new delta-plus variant. Been reading it about but at the moment in time, seems restricted to UK only but in this day and age with civil aviation who knows

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58965650.amp

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59009293

10% is not a big deal in terms of contagiousness. Considering that Alpha was about double the contagiousness of the native virus and Delta double that. That in itself is a factor of 4x. Adding 10% to that is minor, probably within any margin of error.

It will spread regardless of air travel. The black plague and Spanish Flu spread far without air travel. I honestly laugh that we think that some pathogens can be stopped. Humans think we have far more control than we actually have.

There is nothing we could have done to stop Covid in its initial tracks. This thing was spreading globally well before it was figured out.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 185328.htm

art wrote:

I see a late, large government reaction to the rising infection rate looming. The rise in the English population being vaccinated - currently at 74% first dosed, 68% fully dosed - is petering out at a level too low to stop the epidemic spiralling upwards without behavioural changes.

Where did you get those figures?

Per the government’s own site, the rates for England are: 1st dose 86.1% and 2nd dose 78.9% (both numbers based on over 12 population).
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... %20Kingdom

[quote=“art”]I think we are condemned to the prospect of intermittent lockdowns unless the government mandates vaccine passports for the use of shops, public transport and enclosed public spaces (pubs, theatres, night clubs etc). Currently there are millions of people here who have chosen to be petri dishes for COVID-19 or for their children to be petri dishes for the disease. The situation produced by giving the same access to services to people who decline vaccination as to those who accept is absurd.

Astonishingly on BBC news I have just heard a doctor saying that 7% of health workers are not vaccinated.[/quote]

Personally, I’ll be amazed if we get through winter without another lockdown. To say my wife is excited at the prospect of our daughter and 18 month granddaughter spending Christmas with us is a massive understatement. But apparently, urging caution and restraint make me a bad person! Said daughter’s best friend is a GP and refuses to be vaccinated! She’s caught COVID twice now.

I’m in France for a few days and I have to say, they seem to be taking everything more seriously than we are in the UK (in my experience). Just about everyone wears a mask and you have to show your vaccination certificate to get into most places.

scbriml wrote:

art wrote:

I see a late, large government reaction to the rising infection rate looming. The rise in the English population being vaccinated - currently at 74% first dosed, 68% fully dosed - is petering out at a level too low to stop the epidemic spiralling upwards without behavioural changes.

Where did you get those figures?

Per the government’s own site, the rates for England are: 1st dose 86.1% and 2nd dose 78.9% (both numbers based on over 12 population).
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... %20Kingdom
.

The Guardian publishes figures as a percentage of the entire population, not eligible population, which allows true comparison between countries, removing the considerable variation of age of eligibility.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ions-today
This is particularily relevant due to the high infection rates in children, which although do not suffer the consequences of covid to the same extent as older people, their high levels of mobility have a disparate effect on overall transmission.

@scrimbl

I take my data re:vaccination in England from the vaccination data published daily by NHS England. Any calculations done by me are based on the population of England. So if I say that 80% of the population... whatever, it refers to 80% of the entire population, not 80% those who qualify for vaccination.

I don't think that calculating figures based on those qualifying for vaccination is very useful.

art wrote:

@scrimbl

I take my data re:vaccination in England from the vaccination data published daily by NHS England. Any calculations done by me are based on the population of England. So if I say that 80% of the population... whatever, it refers to 80% of the entire population, not 80% those who qualify for vaccination.

I don't think that calculating figures based on those qualifying for vaccination is very useful.

I'm not defending the government in any way, but if you're going to exclude a certain age group from being vaccinated, why would you include that age group in a measure of who's vaccinated?

scbriml wrote:

art wrote:

@scrimbl

I take my data re:vaccination in England from the vaccination data published daily by NHS England. Any calculations done by me are based on the population of England. So if I say that 80% of the population... whatever, it refers to 80% of the entire population, not 80% those who qualify for vaccination.

I don't think that calculating figures based on those qualifying for vaccination is very useful.

I'm not defending the government in any way, but if you're going to exclude a certain age group from being vaccinated, why would you include that age group in a measure of who's vaccinated?

They are two different measures with different applications.
The percentage vaccinated against the whole population really determines the risk reduction, how close to that aspirational "herd immunity" where outbreaks are largely self extinguishing without additional measures.
And this is the only measure to consider when making comparisons between countries, and their relative effectiveness of control measures.
It also saves the appearance of moving goal posts, if age of eligibility alters.
Australia officially now bizarrely uses percentages of over 16s vaccinated, when everybody over the age of 11 is eligible for and is being encouraged to get vaccinated and has been for over a month now.
The percentage of eligible people vaccinated though is the local measure of penetration of the country's vaccination program.
Even the UK is a bit fuzzy in this respect with younger people now being vaccinated.

The virus does not know or care who is eligible for vaccination

cskok8 wrote:

The virus does not know or care who is eligible for vaccination

Although appears to present a lower risk in the young than in adults, even with Delta variant.

In my state (NSW Australia), 83.1% of 12yo+ are fully vaccinated. Approx. 5.6% of almost 59,000 cases since 16 June have been fully vaccinated. Only 2.9% of people admitted to ICU in that period have been fully vaccinated. The fully vaxxed rate has increased from 56% to 83.1% in the last month, while daily new cases have decreased by 2/3 in the same period.

lightsaber wrote:

Now the race for boosters...

Lightsaber

Late edit: The boosters aren't available yet. But soon.

Next up to review vaccines for 5-11 then boosters for age 40+.

I personally like the mix and match. My local pharmacy has a choice of Moderna. J&J is available only at my employer on site vaccination clinics or at Costco. Pfizer is at a few pharmacies, but not the 3 closest. I can imagine in rural areas this will make boosters far easimer. We have brand X, take it or drive to the big city...

I like mix and match too, but as one who is in a phase 3 Moderna trial, I can't do that and remain in the trial. If there is ever any reason for a 4th shot, I'll probably go for the J&J, because it uses a different mechanism than the mRNA vaccines. I definitely want my wife's parents who got the CoviShield vaccine which is an Indian manufactured version of the AstraZeneca vaccine to get Moderna boosters the next time they visit the US.

Kent350787 wrote:

cskok8 wrote:

The virus does not know or care who is eligible for vaccination

Although appears to present a lower risk in the young than in adults, even with Delta variant.

In my state (NSW Australia), 83.1% of 12yo+ are fully vaccinated. Approx. 5.6% of almost 59,000 cases since 16 June have been fully vaccinated. Only 2.9% of people admitted to ICU in that period have been fully vaccinated. The fully vaxxed rate has increased from 56% to 83.1% in the last month, while daily new cases have decreased by 2/3 in the same period.

It looks like NZ is running about a month behind NSW, and perhaps 10 days behind VIC. Auckland is about 10 days ahead of the rest of the country.
We are taking a very conservative path on opening up. Indicative not to start until the whole country is at 90% of 12yo+ fully vaccinated.
This should be sometime early to mid December just after the vaccination passport scheduled to be functional late November.
It is great to see how the case numbers in NSW have rapidly subsided with these levels of vaccination.. Hopefully our currently growing outbreak mirrors this and peaks out very shortly too, limiting further damage.

lightsaber wrote:

cskok8 wrote:

I personally dislike numbers manipulated other than total population

So do I.

lightsaber wrote:

cskok8 wrote:

In my opinion when people hear above 70%, they relax their efforts.

I think that the figures reported showing very high percentages of the elegible being vaccinated encourage people to think that the COVID-19 problem has pretty much been been fixed. Those who have declined vaccination feel confident that they will not be infected now. In their minds the chance of becoming infected has almost disappeared since nearly everyone else has been vaccinated - and they consequently dismiss any concerns they might have had due to being unvaccinated.

Like you, I also think that people take fewer steps to avoid infection when they hear of 80% or 90% of people being vaccinated.

cskok8 wrote:

The virus does not know or care who is eligible for vaccination

It doesn't know or care who's vaccinated, either!

lightsaber wrote:

cskok8 wrote:

The virus does not know or care who is eligible for vaccination

This is true. Schools in particular spread the virus:
To others:

https://gazette.com/news/us-world/child ... c.amp.html

The UK tends to have the accurate numbers:

On Friday one survey suggested prevalence was at its highest level since January, with 8% of secondary school children infected.




Lightsaber

The current NZ outbreak is more or less confined to Auckland and an area immediatly south of the city, these are the only areas in the country currently in lockdown. Here vaccination levels of 12yo+ have now reached 90% first dose 77% second.
Because vaccinations were originally prioritised by age, the younger age groups have marketably relitively lower vaccination rates.
This is then reflected in infection rates and even hospitalisation rates.
Yesterday the average age of the 35 people hospitalised with covid in NZ is a mere 42 years of age.
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/m ... ccine-dose

As a first stage of exiting lockdown secondary schools are reopening today, with mandatory masks and social distancing
Nationally about 50% of the 12-19 year olds have received their first dose, and about 75% their second. Auckland is probably up to 5% higher on both measures.
The big split is indicative of how recently vaccines have become available to this group.

Secondary school students are mostly mature enough to grasp the need for the additional restrictions. With important year end assessments there is a lot at stake.

Primary schools will however remain closed until the new academic year, early in the new year. This age group being entirely unvaccinated and highly social, with mask wearing and social distancing of limited practicality.
It is feared that primary schools would create a huge pool of infection to spread onward until our vaccination program has had the more time to advance further.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... ols-reopen

In NSW, all students are now back at school, with over 50% of 12-15yo fully vaxxed. 18 of 2220 government schools were closed due to Covid cases yesterday.

Kids in Victoria are also heading back to school now

scbriml wrote:

cskok8 wrote:

The virus does not know or care who is eligible for vaccination

It doesn't know or care who's vaccinated, either!

Confirming what we already know: vaccinated transmit:

A substantial proportion of asymptomatic, fully vaccinated individuals in our study had
low Ct-values, indicative of high viral loads.

And

ere were no statistically significant differences in mean Ct-values of vaccinated (UeS:
23.1; HYT: 25.5) vs. unvaccinated (UeS: 23.4; HYT: 25.4) samples.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf

Makes me wonder what the sense behind a COVID safe pass really is, especially the requirement to show a negative test if not vaccinated.

Is there someone here who has data on long COVID in vaccinated? Seems the more relevant data for the moment, both from a personal perspective as a public health perspective.

Comparable rates of vaccinations are 73% Seattle, King County and 53% Kitsap County. Death rates are .2 per 100K and 1.1 per 100K. I suspect that is closely related to vaccination rates.

lightsaber wrote:

Novavax has applied for UK approval:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/no ... NewsSearch

Technically, Novavax seems great, but it also always seems two months away from greatness. I wish them luck. As I personally believe everyone needs a booster and we still need to vaccinate the world, this should help if production volumes get up there.

Lightsaber

Interesting

"The submission to MHRA leverages our manufacturing partnership with the Serum Institute of India, the world's largest supplier of COVID-19 vaccines," said Rick Crowley, Executive Vice President, Chief Operations Officer, Novavax. "In the near future, we expect to supplement this filing with supply from our global supply chain."

Their issues were batch to batch consistency, so I guess in aviation terms, type certificate no problem, production certificate the blocker. So it seems like they've opted to work with SI first to get that sorted, rather than the much smaller and less experienced UK supply chain, or the US one for that matter. Which makes sense. Hopefully the MHRA can turn this around pronto, it will help with the WHO approval. There has been a rolling review, so you would hope so.

Interesting to see if we get supply from India. There's a lot of noise from the vaccine hesitant on social media, who would refuse mRNA vaccines but take this. Would be good if it drives out a few more, however irrational it seems.

lightsaber wrote:

FDA approves Pfizer age 5+. For some reason the CDC, who must vote on this, doesn't meet until next week (I suspect to give time to distribute the smaller syringes and protocols).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... uxbndlbing

Not yet. FDA Advisory panel has recommended approval

Maybe someone needs to come up with a flow chart. There are a variety of agencies and other committees who must approve of a drug before that person with a syringe pokes it in an arm.

Research
Decision to manufacture
Regulatory oversight of the above
At least two or three testing in various populations
Regulatory oversight of the testing
Several regulatory assessment of the results of that testing before the 'go ahead'
Packaging, critical supply chain management, delivery

Some of these can proceed simultaneously. Wikipedia probably has all of this, but one would need an entire page length of links to list them all. I think here we are looking at the last two of the above. Each needs its own chart.

Dupli wrote:

Confirming what we already know: vaccinated transmit:

Yes, and people wearing seatbelts die. I'm getting tired of posting the same studies over and over again showing the faster fall-off for vaccinated breakthrough cases

source: CDC

Or the continued reduced risk of infection:

source: CDC

Or the reduced risk of secondary transmission.

So the vaccines aren't perfect, but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good.

DocLightning wrote:

Dupli wrote:

Confirming what we already know: vaccinated transmit:

Yes, and people wearing seatbelts die. I'm getting tired of posting the same studies over and over again showing the faster fall-off for vaccinated breakthrough cases

source: CDC

Or the continued reduced risk of infection:

source: CDC

Or the reduced risk of secondary transmission.

So the vaccines aren't perfect, but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good.

Interesting that partial vaccination provides as much, if not more, protection against the virus. Any reason as to why?

leader1 wrote:

DocLightning wrote:

Dupli wrote:

Confirming what we already know: vaccinated transmit:

Yes, and people wearing seatbelts die. I'm getting tired of posting the same studies over and over again showing the faster fall-off for vaccinated breakthrough cases

source: CDC

Or the continued reduced risk of infection:

source: CDC

Or the reduced risk of secondary transmission.

So the vaccines aren't perfect, but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good.

Interesting that partial vaccination provides as much, if not more, protection against the virus. Any reason as to why?

My guess is that it doesn't differentiate between those who are freshly vaccinated and those who got fully vaccinated 6+ months ago.

flyingclrs727 wrote:

leader1 wrote:

DocLightning wrote:

Yes, and people wearing seatbelts die. I'm getting tired of posting the same studies over and over again showing the faster fall-off for vaccinated breakthrough cases

source: CDC

Or the continued reduced risk of infection:

source: CDC

Or the reduced risk of secondary transmission.

So the vaccines aren't perfect, but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good.

Interesting that partial vaccination provides as much, if not more, protection against the virus. Any reason as to why?

My guess is that it doesn't differentiate between those who are freshly vaccinated and those who got fully vaccinated 6+ months ago.

May also include behaviour effects from knowing that they are not protected yet.

Best regards
Thomas