In the supply / production chain we are probably now at the point where we need to include "non-use in time" to the waste / spoil amount, the number may not be comprehensive and accurate, but based on the size of the country and the logistic chain required to get the vaccines out and record its use, this is to be expected.
I think when the USA allowed international travellers to get vaxxed it probably resulted in a reduction of waste.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/am ... h-n1278211

StarAC17 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

errr... I'm not thinking this will help many. And it is a new experimental medication versus a vaccine given to billions... Hmmm...

Yes, it probably pays off per my back of the envelope spreadsheet, but far more expensive than a vaccine for less effectiveness.

Lightsaber

Vaccines play a part in ensuring that people don't get very sick. Also breakthrough cases are quite high (if testing is high) I have observed the Ontario number is about 15%-25% of the total case number are people fully vaccinated.

If you have an antiviral that will stop a severe case once someone feels sick (and we can confirm its a covid case) then you write them a prescription for it and have them take the course of the medication immediately. I can almost assure for most people who won't take the vaccine will take the anti-viral if a doctor orders it. From the onset of symptoms severe outcomes take 8-10 days to manifest so you get the antiviral in the early stages to help with the fight. As already said if someone has the flu, we do the same with Tamiflu.

I remember some time ago on 60 minutes an ICU physician was asked. What would you prefer, a vaccine or a treatment? The doctor said a treatment.

If this works enough to stop hospitals from being overrun, we can drop restrictions and if this can be distributed globally then we can end this pandemic.

This is why I am totally against any vaccine mandates. The science is evolving now these vaccines are not even lasting 6 months of decent protection and new evidence is putting at even less. Too much crazy politics around this vaccine and the MSM is totally suppressing any bad information like breakthrough infection and death in vaccinated people or keeping it very limited. Somehow the story of a 38 year old woman with no health issues who died from the J@J vaccine in Oregon from a blood clot and social media did a lot to silence that even though her family is really pushing to make it public. I want to know why therapeutics have also been downplayed in favor of these vaccines. It is no wonder there are skeptics. Not all people who refuse these vaccines are anti vaxers. I am not an anti vaxer and got the Moderna but I almost backed out because I don't trust how this whole thing was rolled out and as time goes on we keep getting new facts about these vaccines this is why people are hesitant. I already know 3 people who got breakthrough infections who wound up in the hospital one died and that was my aunt who also got Moderna she was 75 and overweight. So you can count me among the those who have no confidence that with my co morbidities that my vaccine will save me if I get covid.

stratosphere wrote:

StarAC17 wrote:

Vaccines play a part in ensuring that people don't get very sick. Also breakthrough cases are quite high (if testing is high) I have observed the Ontario number is about 15%-25% of the total case number are people fully vaccinated.

If you have an antiviral that will stop a severe case once someone feels sick (and we can confirm its a covid case) then you write them a prescription for it and have them take the course of the medication immediately. I can almost assure for most people who won't take the vaccine will take the anti-viral if a doctor orders it. From the onset of symptoms severe outcomes take 8-10 days to manifest so you get the antiviral in the early stages to help with the fight. As already said if someone has the flu, we do the same with Tamiflu.

I remember some time ago on 60 minutes an ICU physician was asked. What would you prefer, a vaccine or a treatment? The doctor said a treatment.

If this works enough to stop hospitals from being overrun, we can drop restrictions and if this can be distributed globally then we can end this pandemic.

This is why I am totally against any vaccine mandates. The science is evolving now these vaccines are not even lasting 6 months of decent protection and new evidence is putting at even less. Too much crazy politics around this vaccine and the MSM is totally suppressing any bad information like breakthrough infection and death in vaccinated people or keeping it very limited. Somehow the story of a 38 year old woman with no health issues who died from the J@J vaccine in Oregon from a blood clot and social media did a lot to silence that even though her family is really pushing to make it public. I want to know why therapeutics have also been downplayed in favor of these vaccines. It is no wonder there are skeptics. Not all people who refuse these vaccines are anti vaxers. I am not an anti vaxer and got the Moderna but I almost backed out because I don't trust how this whole thing was rolled out and as time goes on we keep getting new facts about these vaccines this is why people are hesitant. I already know 3 people who got breakthrough infections who wound up in the hospital one died and that was my aunt who also got Moderna she was 75 and overweight. So you can count me among the those who have no confidence that with my co morbidities that my vaccine will save me if I get covid.

Firstly, my condolences to you on the loss of your aunt.

This monster of a virus has spawned more data and opinions than I have ever encountered. The data show that in every million people vaccinated far fewer adverse effects due to COVID-19 or vaccination are recorded than in every million unvaccinated. I'm not a medic but I suspect that also applies to those with co-morbidities, perhaps even more so.

US decided to accept vaccines approved by FDA, or by WHO, for the purpose of inbound quarantine restrictions.
Hence being excluded would be Russian vaccines, Novavax?, Taiwanese vaccines, and various other domestic vaccine production effort in countries around the world.
China have two vaccines being approved by WHO but they also have a number of other vaccines being used to indoctrinate its population according to my understanding. Those would also be excluded.

I assume you meant inoculate, but I wouldn't put it past China to take any advantage to indoctrinate.

c933103 wrote:

US decided to accept vaccines approved by FDA, or by WHO, for the purpose of inbound quarantine restrictions.
Hence being excluded would be Russian vaccines, Novavax?, Taiwanese vaccines, and various other domestic vaccine production effort in countries around the world.
China have two vaccines being approved by WHO but they also have a number of other vaccines being used to indoctrinate its population according to my understanding. Those would also be excluded.

Novavax has applied for WHO approval. At least one independent party should review a vaccine.
https://news.yahoo.com/novavax-applies- ... 44933.html


The Taiwanese vaccine is being administered ahead of trials, there is no way for the FDA or WHO to approve it. It is truly an experimental vaccine. Here is a list of WHO vaccine status as of September 29 (latest update as of today OCT 9 2021):
https://extranet.who.int/pqweb/sites/de ... 2021_0.pdf

Note, that document will be updated, here is the page to go to for updates (you'll have to find the above equivalent link):
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... 9-vaccines

e.g., CasSinoBio and Novavax/Covovax is ongoing site manufacturing approval (if you look at say AZ, each manufacturing site has its own approval). The vaccine is approved, but not the quality control process for making it; this is similar to aircraft that need a type and production certificate, a normal thing in regulated industries. Can you design a product good enough? Now can you make the product consistently enough. They are two separate skill sets.

Sputnik V process for the WHO to approve is about to restart. There was a bit of information not provided that has been corrected:
https://tass.com/world/1347009

But look at the WHO document, they have a long way to go to WHO approval.

There are also a bunch of vaccines further behind.
Approved:
1. Pfizer
2. AZ (with 8 manufacturing sites!)
3. Janssen/J&J (with two new sites in work, one in UK, one in the USA).
4. Moderna
5. SInoPharm (but new site in work)
6. SinoVac
7. Bharat Biotech (Covaxin)

With 9 more in various stages of approval (by my count) by the WHO.

I'm perfectly fine with a nation limiting to their approved vaccines to: the local health authority, other recognized heath authorities (whom they choose to anoint), and the WHO. If a vaccine cannot get WHO approval, that raises valid questions on "what isn't done right." Some, like Taiwan's Medigen are effectively in trials, not even ready for emergency approval.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/security ... -cna04.htm

The locally-made vaccine had stirred controversy even before its rollout, as it was granted EUA in July even though it had not yet gone to Phase 3 clinical trials. Medigen claimed the vaccine was effective, basing their conclusion on immunobridging studies in which the amount of antibodies generated by people who took the vaccine were compared with those who took the widely-used AstraZeneca vaccine.
That form of release does not meet WHO guidelines, much less FDA, NIH, or EMA guidelines to even begin looking at the vaccine candidate.

I personally am a fan of imnio bridging studies. (No placebo, a fraction get the vaccine under test, a fraction receive another vaccine, usually AZ.) However, until the study is completed, the vaccine cannot be approved. The lack of international approval is probably why:
So far, more than 700,000 people in Taiwan have received their first shot of the Medigen vaccine, and around 55,000 have signed up to receive it and no other vaccine, but those figures are significantly lower than that of the other types of vaccines available in Taiwan, including Pfizer-BNT, even though that vaccine only became available this month.

My math says that is only 3% of the Taiwanese population. So interesting, but not of huge concern. More concern is the lack of vaccines for Taiwan.

What amused me is that a friend has a parent in Taiwan who received: "A-Z, that is made by Pfizer, right?" LoL, I was polite to explain it is another very good vaccine.

Lightsaber

Newark727 wrote:

So if I'm understanding this correctly, "optimization" depends on relative abundance of tRNAs? Curious how that's controlled biologically.

Each species has a different abundance of each tRNA. So, for example (and I'm just pulling these out of my ear) in all organisms, leucine is coded by CUA, CUU, CUG, and CUC, but let's suppose in bats CUC is the most common tRNA and in humans it's CUG, then a virus that has a mutation to change that codon from C->G at the third position would do better in humans (there are obviously other factors). So to optomize, you pick the best codon in a given species.

DocLightning wrote:

Newark727 wrote:

So if I'm understanding this correctly, "optimization" depends on relative abundance of tRNAs? Curious how that's controlled biologically.

Each species has a different abundance of each tRNA. So, for example (and I'm just pulling these out of my ear) in all organisms, leucine is coded by CUA, CUU, CUG, and CUC, but let's suppose in bats CUC is the most common tRNA and in humans it's CUG, then a virus that has a mutation to change that codon from C->G at the third position would do better in humans (there are obviously other factors). So to optomize, you pick the best codon in a given species.

Right, but why are certain tRNAs more abundant in some species and less in others, and is that something that can change over time?

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

US decided to accept vaccines approved by FDA, or by WHO, for the purpose of inbound quarantine restrictions.
Hence being excluded would be Russian vaccines, Novavax?, Taiwanese vaccines, and various other domestic vaccine production effort in countries around the world.
China have two vaccines being approved by WHO but they also have a number of other vaccines being used to indoctrinate its population according to my understanding. Those would also be excluded.

Novavax has applied for WHO approval. At least one independent party should review a vaccine.
https://news.yahoo.com/novavax-applies- ... 44933.html


The Taiwanese vaccine is being administered ahead of trials, there is no way for the FDA or WHO to approve it. It is truly an experimental vaccine. Here is a list of WHO vaccine status as of September 29 (latest update as of today OCT 9 2021):
https://extranet.who.int/pqweb/sites/de ... 2021_0.pdf

Note, that document will be updated, here is the page to go to for updates (you'll have to find the above equivalent link):
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... 9-vaccines

e.g., CasSinoBio and Novavax/Covovax is ongoing site manufacturing approval (if you look at say AZ, each manufacturing site has its own approval). The vaccine is approved, but not the quality control process for making it; this is similar to aircraft that need a type and production certificate, a normal thing in regulated industries. Can you design a product good enough? Now can you make the product consistently enough. They are two separate skill sets.

Sputnik V process for the WHO to approve is about to restart. There was a bit of information not provided that has been corrected:
https://tass.com/world/1347009

But look at the WHO document, they have a long way to go to WHO approval.

There are also a bunch of vaccines further behind.
Approved:
1. Pfizer
2. AZ (with 8 manufacturing sites!)
3. Janssen/J&J (with two new sites in work, one in UK, one in the USA).
4. Moderna
5. SInoPharm (but new site in work)
6. SinoVac
7. Bharat Biotech (Covaxin)

With 9 more in various stages of approval (by my count) by the WHO.

I'm perfectly fine with a nation limiting to their approved vaccines to: the local health authority, other recognized heath authorities (whom they choose to anoint), and the WHO. If a vaccine cannot get WHO approval, that raises valid questions on "what isn't done right." Some, like Taiwan's Medigen are effectively in trials, not even ready for emergency approval.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/security ... -cna04.htm

The locally-made vaccine had stirred controversy even before its rollout, as it was granted EUA in July even though it had not yet gone to Phase 3 clinical trials. Medigen claimed the vaccine was effective, basing their conclusion on immunobridging studies in which the amount of antibodies generated by people who took the vaccine were compared with those who took the widely-used AstraZeneca vaccine.
That form of release does not meet WHO guidelines, much less FDA, NIH, or EMA guidelines to even begin looking at the vaccine candidate.

I personally am a fan of imnio bridging studies. (No placebo, a fraction get the vaccine under test, a fraction receive another vaccine, usually AZ.) However, until the study is completed, the vaccine cannot be approved. The lack of international approval is probably why:
So far, more than 700,000 people in Taiwan have received their first shot of the Medigen vaccine, and around 55,000 have signed up to receive it and no other vaccine, but those figures are significantly lower than that of the other types of vaccines available in Taiwan, including Pfizer-BNT, even though that vaccine only became available this month.

My math says that is only 3% of the Taiwanese population. So interesting, but not of huge concern. More concern is the lack of vaccines for Taiwan.

What amused me is that a friend has a parent in Taiwan who received: "A-Z, that is made by Pfizer, right?" LoL, I was polite to explain it is another very good vaccine.

Lightsaber

Taiwanese vaccines is now undergoing third stage trial in the form of inmunobridging but there are no info whether such method as third stage trial will be accepted by WHO or FDA, which bring in uncertainty, like those who got Novavax vaccines during their trial from last years but still facong acceptance issue a good bit of time after that

Newark727 wrote:

Right, but why are certain tRNAs more abundant in some species and less in others, and is that something that can change over time?

There's probably some subtle advantages for certain codons over others that may favor one species vs. another, but most likely it's mostly just random. Primates favor one codon while bats favor another, kind of how various regions use different electric outlets that might have this or that subtle advantage over another design but are mostly based on "that's what we started with, so now we're stuck with it."

These things probably change over evolutionary timescales.

This question was asked in this CivAv thread, I thought best to address here:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1464959&p=22990361#p22990361

frmrCapCadet wrote:

While we might need 90+% of total population vaccinated in this country to end the pandemic, I understand that just getting it up to 75% can mean life gets back to normal and we can do most everything we want even without masks. I have read bits and pieces of information saying this, but perhaps someone more knowledgeable could provide better numbers or links.

I've done my own reading and even the experts disagree.

Some fraction of the population has an autoimmune deficiency and are in extreme danger from Covid19, vaccinated or not, booster or not. e.g., any close contact of these people should be vaccinated per CDC guidance. That could be interpreted that essential services, such as air travel, must be vaccinated (hence the Federal mandate).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... dance.html

Calculating Ro

Ro=R_natural*[1-sum of all(Eff_trans*%in group)]*[1-sum of all(Eff_receive*%in group)]

In other words, how well can each group transmit versus the natural R factor and how likely are they to receive.
Unvaccinated and unexposed are at the default (0%)
The question is how well does vaccines prevent transmission (not as well as with Delta as prior variants, why we need a nasal vaccine).
How well do vaccines strop receiving the virus (hence why we need a booster).

Ro=6 to 7 for Delta based on various links
(This one is 6): https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... chickenpox

So to ensure R < 1 = 6*1-%vacc*effectivenes to transmitt)*(1-%vacc*effectiveness to receive)
If we presume an effectiveness against transmission of a vaccine of 50% and our current 55% (US) fully vaccinated (ignoring prior exposure and partial vaccinated), we expect an Ro of 2.46.

Unfortunately, with those assumptions, we need 90% of the population vaccinated to get Ro less than one (have this die off for good).
So hence Israel and the boosters.
So then we discuss Nassal vaccines and boosters. If we assume % effectiveness to stop transmission at 75% and % effectiveness of the vaccine at 90% we need 75% at the boosted level of immunity to put this virus to bed.

What we're likely to end up with is well vaccinated pockets and poorly vaccinated pockets. This will be Caveat Viator (Let the traveler beware). We saw in the last outbreak better vaccinated areas had a lesser surge and more hospital capacity. Since kids could be vaccinted next month (age 5+), we'll start hitting areas with enough vaccinated to test the real world values.
https://news.yahoo.com/kids-ages-5-11-c ... 00897.html

The goal is to keep a normal economy which requires air travel. I don't like the fact I have to coordinate with a VP for business air travel for my team. That is one more headache. It means I must plan out a few more weeks in advance, which totally defeats the purpose of solving issues quickly via face to face discussion.

So it is going to be some mixture of fully vaccinated and boosted, so not 90%, but above 75%.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

This question was asked in this CivAv thread, I thought best to address here:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1464959&p=22990361#p22990361

frmrCapCadet wrote:

While we might need 90+% of total population vaccinated in this country to end the pandemic, I understand that just getting it up to 75% can mean life gets back to normal and we can do most everything we want even without masks. I have read bits and pieces of information saying this, but perhaps someone more knowledgeable could provide better numbers or links.

I've done my own reading and even the experts disagree.

Some fraction of the population has an autoimmune deficiency and are in extreme danger from Covid19, vaccinated or not, booster or not. e.g., any close contact of these people should be vaccinated per CDC guidance. That could be interpreted that essential services, such as air travel, must be vaccinated (hence the Federal mandate).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... dance.html

Calculating Ro

Ro=R_natural*[1-sum of all(Eff_trans*%in group)]*[1-sum of all(Eff_receive*%in group)]

In other words, how well can each group transmit versus the natural R factor and how likely are they to receive.
Unvaccinated and unexposed are at the default (0%)
The question is how well does vaccines prevent transmission (not as well as with Delta as prior variants, why we need a nasal vaccine).
How well do vaccines strop receiving the virus (hence why we need a booster).

Ro=6 to 7 for Delta based on various links
(This one is 6): https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... chickenpox

So to ensure R < 1 = 6*1-%vacc*effectivenes to transmitt)*(1-%vacc*effectiveness to receive)
If we presume an effectiveness against transmission of a vaccine of 50% and our current 55% (US) fully vaccinated (ignoring prior exposure and partial vaccinated), we expect an Ro of 2.46.

Unfortunately, with those assumptions, we need 90% of the population vaccinated to get Ro less than one (have this die off for good).
So hence Israel and the boosters.
So then we discuss Nassal vaccines and boosters. If we assume % effectiveness to stop transmission at 75% and % effectiveness of the vaccine at 90% we need 75% at the boosted level of immunity to put this virus to bed.

What we're likely to end up with is well vaccinated pockets and poorly vaccinated pockets. This will be Caveat Viator (Let the traveler beware). We saw in the last outbreak better vaccinated areas had a lesser surge and more hospital capacity. Since kids could be vaccinted next month (age 5+), we'll start hitting areas with enough vaccinated to test the real world values.
https://news.yahoo.com/kids-ages-5-11-c ... 00897.html

The goal is to keep a normal economy which requires air travel. I don't like the fact I have to coordinate with a VP for business air travel for my team. That is one more headache. It means I must plan out a few more weeks in advance, which totally defeats the purpose of solving issues quickly via face to face discussion.

So it is going to be some mixture of fully vaccinated and boosted, so not 90%, but above 75%.

Lightsaber

The Ro is variable it seems. Look at FL. It went from well above 1 to well below 1 without an appreciable increase in vaccinations during the latest spike.

planecane wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

This question was asked in this CivAv thread, I thought best to address here:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1464959&p=22990361#p22990361

frmrCapCadet wrote:

While we might need 90+% of total population vaccinated in this country to end the pandemic, I understand that just getting it up to 75% can mean life gets back to normal and we can do most everything we want even without masks. I have read bits and pieces of information saying this, but perhaps someone more knowledgeable could provide better numbers or links.

I've done my own reading and even the experts disagree.

Some fraction of the population has an autoimmune deficiency and are in extreme danger from Covid19, vaccinated or not, booster or not. e.g., any close contact of these people should be vaccinated per CDC guidance. That could be interpreted that essential services, such as air travel, must be vaccinated (hence the Federal mandate).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... dance.html

Calculating Ro

Ro=R_natural*[1-sum of all(Eff_trans*%in group)]*[1-sum of all(Eff_receive*%in group)]

In other words, how well can each group transmit versus the natural R factor and how likely are they to receive.
Unvaccinated and unexposed are at the default (0%)
The question is how well does vaccines prevent transmission (not as well as with Delta as prior variants, why we need a nasal vaccine).
How well do vaccines strop receiving the virus (hence why we need a booster).

Ro=6 to 7 for Delta based on various links
(This one is 6): https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... chickenpox

So to ensure R < 1 = 6*1-%vacc*effectivenes to transmitt)*(1-%vacc*effectiveness to receive)
If we presume an effectiveness against transmission of a vaccine of 50% and our current 55% (US) fully vaccinated (ignoring prior exposure and partial vaccinated), we expect an Ro of 2.46.

Unfortunately, with those assumptions, we need 90% of the population vaccinated to get Ro less than one (have this die off for good).
So hence Israel and the boosters.
So then we discuss Nassal vaccines and boosters. If we assume % effectiveness to stop transmission at 75% and % effectiveness of the vaccine at 90% we need 75% at the boosted level of immunity to put this virus to bed.

What we're likely to end up with is well vaccinated pockets and poorly vaccinated pockets. This will be Caveat Viator (Let the traveler beware). We saw in the last outbreak better vaccinated areas had a lesser surge and more hospital capacity. Since kids could be vaccinted next month (age 5+), we'll start hitting areas with enough vaccinated to test the real world values.
https://news.yahoo.com/kids-ages-5-11-c ... 00897.html

The goal is to keep a normal economy which requires air travel. I don't like the fact I have to coordinate with a VP for business air travel for my team. That is one more headache. It means I must plan out a few more weeks in advance, which totally defeats the purpose of solving issues quickly via face to face discussion.

So it is going to be some mixture of fully vaccinated and boosted, so not 90%, but above 75%.

Lightsaber

The Ro is variable it seems. Look at FL. It went from well above 1 to well below 1 without an appreciable increase in vaccinations during the latest spike.

Perhaps it's also a function of items like personal behaviors (people get more cautious during a surge), weather, time of year, etc.).

There is continuing confusion of the % of vaccination levels required to achieve what, because governments conginue to use the measure that makes them look the best.
The % of "eligible" population but the age of eligibity is variable between countries.

Australia publishes it's figures on the population 16 and above inspite of everbody 12 and above being eligible for vaccination since mid September.

In appears that a reduced Pfizer shot will shortly be approved in many countries bringing the age of eligibility down to 5 years old.
Until this happens, is 90% vaccination rates of the population even achievable?
I would have thought that the 0 to 11 year olds would comprise slightly more then 10% of most populations.

lightsaber wrote:

Unfortunately, with those assumptions, we need 90% of the population vaccinated to get Ro less than one (have this die off for good).
So hence Israel and the boosters.
So then we discuss Nassal vaccines and boosters. If we assume % effectiveness to stop transmission at 75% and % effectiveness of the vaccine at 90% we need 75% at the boosted level of immunity to put this virus to bed.

What we're likely to end up with is well vaccinated pockets and poorly vaccinated pockets. This will be Caveat Viator (Let the traveler beware). We saw in the last outbreak better vaccinated areas had a lesser surge and more hospital capacity. Since kids could be vaccinted next month (age 5+), we'll start hitting areas with enough vaccinated to test the real world values.
https://news.yahoo.com/kids-ages-5-11-c ... 00897.html

The goal is to keep a normal economy which requires air travel. I don't like the fact I have to coordinate with a VP for business air travel for my team. That is one more headache. It means I must plan out a few more weeks in advance, which totally defeats the purpose of solving issues quickly via face to face discussion.

So it is going to be some mixture of fully vaccinated and boosted, so not 90%, but above 75%.

Lightsaber

I agree, the accepted goal is 90% of eligible people.

However I think we need to stop looking at what Israel is doing as necessarily correct. There vaccination numbers for 2 doses are too low and have rushed for a 3rd. If they had 90% and were having issues then they have an argument.

They rushed for 3rd doses but there have a two dose number far lower than most of Europe, Asia and Canada with Australia and New Zealand catching up fast. This is taken from the New York Times vaccine tracker.

My opinion is that every breakthrough case which the large majority have been mild (and many are not reported) is on its own an effective third dose. I am very critical of the fact that this isn't looked at more in depth.

Granted my empathy goes out to you as I believe you were re infected and your long haul symptoms have gotten worse. Long haul conditions when fully vaccinated would worry me if it's high and haven't seen a lot of data on it.

In Canada's outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan who both fully reopened way too soon and have issues. Canada's case load and hospitalizations are pretty stable and vaccine passports have been in place for some time now.

Manageble restrictions are in place with indoor masking and vaccine passports in most places. Although I am pissed gyms and restaurants haven't got capacity hikes but we can put 20,000 people into an arena. This is the money talking.

Furthermore I don't think we can eradicate this for a long time with the current vaccines. We will get seasonal waves for some years and perhaps forever.

Chemist wrote:

Perhaps it's also a function of items like personal behaviors (people get more cautious during a surge), weather, time of year, etc.).

Undoubtably fear of catching covid is a huge incentive for receiving the vaccination.

This is particularily evident in the disparity of vaccination rates in Australia, between the two states currently battling outbreaks and the rest of Australia that is still succesfully maintaining elimination.
The same is evident in NZ between Auckland which is currently suffering an outbreak and the rest of NZ which remains covid free apart from the very occasional incursion through the covid containment border surrounding Auckland.
In NZ when this outbreak first appeared it coincided with the first time vaccine supply was unconstrained here, so the outbreak and pent up demand meant a couple of weeks of extraordinarily high uptake.
Once that pent up demand had been satisfied and the outbreak seemed to be subsiding uptake almost halved for a few weeks until case numbers began to rise again and border incursions occurred.
Last week this took vaccination rates back up towards the previous peak with about 1/2 a million doses being administered into our 5.1 million total population. Now 5.79 doses of Pfizer have been administered.
When supply was constrained they spread the time out between doses to six weeks, which explains the very large split between first and second dose numbers but this is now rapidly closing especially as they are now encouraging a reduction in the time between doses to close to the three weeks minimum specified by Pfizer.
If everybody took them up on this NZ could be 82% of those over 12 double dosed by the end of this month. 86% of those in Auckland where the outbreak is still confined to at this stage.

Toenga wrote:

There is continuing confusion of the % of vaccination levels required to achieve what, because governments conginue to use the measure that makes them look the best.
The % of "eligible" population but the age of eligibity is variable between countries.

Australia publishes it's figures on the population 16 and above inspite of everbody 12 and above being eligible for vaccination since mid September.

In appears that a reduced Pfizer shot will shortly be approved in many countries bringing the age of eligibility down to 5 years old.
Until this happens, is 90% vaccination rates of the population even achievable?
I would have thought that the 0 to 11 year olds would comprise slightly more then 10% of most populations.

From what I can make out, 0-9 make up approx. 12% of the total population. In NSW, over 90% of 16+ has had at least one dose, and almost 73% both doses. 12-15yo are now almost 65% one dose.

90%+ of eligible population appears readily achievable in Australia, although the point about perceived risk of Covid infection driving vaccination is a significant on. Western Australia, which has no cases and limited restrictions within its state borders, lags the rest of the country on vaccination rates.

As with a number of other countries, Australia has sought advice from Pfizer on vaxxing 5-10yo. For 2022, there will also be the issue of boosters, with AZ dose intervals having been rduced and Pfizer extended in some cases. Moderna has only been availble in the last few weeks.

planecane wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

This question was asked in this CivAv thread, I thought best to address here:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1464959&p=22990361#p22990361

frmrCapCadet wrote:

While we might need 90+% of total population vaccinated in this country to end the pandemic, I understand that just getting it up to 75% can mean life gets back to normal and we can do most everything we want even without masks. I have read bits and pieces of information saying this, but perhaps someone more knowledgeable could provide better numbers or links.

I've done my own reading and even the experts disagree.

Some fraction of the population has an autoimmune deficiency and are in extreme danger from Covid19, vaccinated or not, booster or not. e.g., any close contact of these people should be vaccinated per CDC guidance. That could be interpreted that essential services, such as air travel, must be vaccinated (hence the Federal mandate).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... dance.html

Calculating Ro

Ro=R_natural*[1-sum of all(Eff_trans*%in group)]*[1-sum of all(Eff_receive*%in group)]

In other words, how well can each group transmit versus the natural R factor and how likely are they to receive.
Unvaccinated and unexposed are at the default (0%)
The question is how well does vaccines prevent transmission (not as well as with Delta as prior variants, why we need a nasal vaccine).
How well do vaccines strop receiving the virus (hence why we need a booster).

Ro=6 to 7 for Delta based on various links
(This one is 6): https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... chickenpox

So to ensure R < 1 = 6*1-%vacc*effectivenes to transmitt)*(1-%vacc*effectiveness to receive)
If we presume an effectiveness against transmission of a vaccine of 50% and our current 55% (US) fully vaccinated (ignoring prior exposure and partial vaccinated), we expect an Ro of 2.46.

Unfortunately, with those assumptions, we need 90% of the population vaccinated to get Ro less than one (have this die off for good).
So hence Israel and the boosters.
So then we discuss Nassal vaccines and boosters. If we assume % effectiveness to stop transmission at 75% and % effectiveness of the vaccine at 90% we need 75% at the boosted level of immunity to put this virus to bed.

What we're likely to end up with is well vaccinated pockets and poorly vaccinated pockets. This will be Caveat Viator (Let the traveler beware). We saw in the last outbreak better vaccinated areas had a lesser surge and more hospital capacity. Since kids could be vaccinted next month (age 5+), we'll start hitting areas with enough vaccinated to test the real world values.
https://news.yahoo.com/kids-ages-5-11-c ... 00897.html

The goal is to keep a normal economy which requires air travel. I don't like the fact I have to coordinate with a VP for business air travel for my team. That is one more headache. It means I must plan out a few more weeks in advance, which totally defeats the purpose of solving issues quickly via face to face discussion.

So it is going to be some mixture of fully vaccinated and boosted, so not 90%, but above 75%.

Lightsaber

The Ro is variable it seems. Look at FL. It went from well above 1 to well below 1 without an appreciable increase in vaccinations during the latest spike.

Florida did have an appreciable increase in vaccination rates. It is variable based on mask wearing (Broward) can cut Ro in half:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/browa ... ar-AAMIqsz

I like to talk numbers.
https://data.floridatoday.com/covid-19- ... lorida/12/

Today
1 dose 70.5%
Fully 60.7%

August 22nd
1dose 63%
2 dose 53%
https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... te/florida

However this link noted July 1st 53% were fully vaccinated (total population).
https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/health-ne ... ation-goal

So the prior wave lost out on two months of vaccine potential and then 7.5% of the state became fully vaccinated in addition to the prior fully vaccinated.

Behavior, such as schools now doing mask wearing, also reduces Ro.

Of course this wave is running its course. There is a certain immunity from prior exposure. Yale school of medicine determined as early as 3 months (but for some 63 months).

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing ... einfection


Because of the hospital overload, we cannot keep repeating. Recall influenza and Coronavirus (twindemic) is horrible. If you need ECMO, it was a 39% death rate with Covid19:
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... id19/88849

So if you are pointing out we need to include natural immunity, I agree. But by March, that will not apply anymore and the next wave will come through.

Three or so weeks until age 5-11 vaccines (link above). That will make certain homes safety bubbles This isn't over, but reducing the chance kids bring it home is a big step as it increases the vaccine eligible at 24.3 million (I found ages 6-11, close enough):
https://www.childstats.gov/AMERICASCHIL ... s/pop1.asp

Or another 7.3% of the US population could be vaccinated. That won't happen, this survey says 44% will:
https://nation.lk/online/children-are-j ... 29337.html

So another 3.2% of the population vaccinated with the next age group approved. Not enough to stop the next wave, but enough to slow it further and offload the poor hospitals a bit.

Lightsaber

DocLightning wrote:

Newark727 wrote:

Right, but why are certain tRNAs more abundant in some species and less in others, and is that something that can change over time?

There's probably some subtle advantages for certain codons over others that may favor one species vs. another, but most likely it's mostly just random. Primates favor one codon while bats favor another, kind of how various regions use different electric outlets that might have this or that subtle advantage over another design but are mostly based on "that's what we started with, so now we're stuck with it."

These things probably change over evolutionary timescales.

Neat, thanks! Sorry to bug you about it, but I took a cell biology course this spring and find this kind of thing super interesting.

planecane wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

This question was asked in this CivAv thread, I thought best to address here:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1464959&p=22990361#p22990361

frmrCapCadet wrote:

While we might need 90+% of total population vaccinated in this country to end the pandemic, I understand that just getting it up to 75% can mean life gets back to normal and we can do most everything we want even without masks. I have read bits and pieces of information saying this, but perhaps someone more knowledgeable could provide better numbers or links.

I've done my own reading and even the experts disagree.

Some fraction of the population has an autoimmune deficiency and are in extreme danger from Covid19, vaccinated or not, booster or not. e.g., any close contact of these people should be vaccinated per CDC guidance. That could be interpreted that essential services, such as air travel, must be vaccinated (hence the Federal mandate).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... dance.html

Calculating Ro

Ro=R_natural*[1-sum of all(Eff_trans*%in group)]*[1-sum of all(Eff_receive*%in group)]

In other words, how well can each group transmit versus the natural R factor and how likely are they to receive.
Unvaccinated and unexposed are at the default (0%)
The question is how well does vaccines prevent transmission (not as well as with Delta as prior variants, why we need a nasal vaccine).
How well do vaccines strop receiving the virus (hence why we need a booster).

Ro=6 to 7 for Delta based on various links
(This one is 6): https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... chickenpox

So to ensure R < 1 = 6*1-%vacc*effectivenes to transmitt)*(1-%vacc*effectiveness to receive)
If we presume an effectiveness against transmission of a vaccine of 50% and our current 55% (US) fully vaccinated (ignoring prior exposure and partial vaccinated), we expect an Ro of 2.46.

Unfortunately, with those assumptions, we need 90% of the population vaccinated to get Ro less than one (have this die off for good).
So hence Israel and the boosters.
So then we discuss Nassal vaccines and boosters. If we assume % effectiveness to stop transmission at 75% and % effectiveness of the vaccine at 90% we need 75% at the boosted level of immunity to put this virus to bed.

What we're likely to end up with is well vaccinated pockets and poorly vaccinated pockets. This will be Caveat Viator (Let the traveler beware). We saw in the last outbreak better vaccinated areas had a lesser surge and more hospital capacity. Since kids could be vaccinted next month (age 5+), we'll start hitting areas with enough vaccinated to test the real world values.
https://news.yahoo.com/kids-ages-5-11-c ... 00897.html

The goal is to keep a normal economy which requires air travel. I don't like the fact I have to coordinate with a VP for business air travel for my team. That is one more headache. It means I must plan out a few more weeks in advance, which totally defeats the purpose of solving issues quickly via face to face discussion.

So it is going to be some mixture of fully vaccinated and boosted, so not 90%, but above 75%.

Lightsaber

The Ro is variable it seems. Look at FL. It went from well above 1 to well below 1 without an appreciable increase in vaccinations during the latest spike.

Ro refer to the reproduction rate of the virus itself if there're no control measure in place. No vaccine no mask no social distancing. How much the virus actually transmit after applied various measures is described as real time reproduction number, which can simply be represented as R or Rt

Newark727 wrote:

Neat, thanks! Sorry to bug you about it, but I took a cell biology course this spring and find this kind of thing super interesting.

I'd also say that we're at the extent of my personal knowledge about it, so if you want to know more details, you'll need to look up codon optimization. If you learn anything that contradicts what I said, please share it with me.

I heard on English radio today that reportedly 15% of hospitalisations due to COVID-19 were unvaccinated pregnant women. What is the knowledge base re:COVID-19 where pregnant women are concerned? I can imagine that many women would decline vaccination if they were hoping to become pregnant in the near future or were aware they were pregnant.

It is not the case that 15% of the people in England are pregnant so how come 15% of the people ending up in hospital with COVID-19 in England are pregnant?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

A longer article on bats, caves, wild animal farms, and Covid.

art wrote:

I heard on English radio today that reportedly 15% of hospitalisations due to COVID-19 were unvaccinated pregnant women. What is the knowledge base re:COVID-19 where pregnant women are concerned? I can imagine that many women would decline vaccination if they were hoping to become pregnant in the near future or were aware they were pregnant.

It is not the case that 15% of the people in England are pregnant so how come 15% of the people ending up in hospital with COVID-19 in England are pregnant?

Quick answer, pregnant women are more vulnerable as their immune system must adapt to not automatically reject the baby. The long answer in a link (not just the quote):
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25947331/

Pregnancy represents a unique immune tolerant condition that cannot be attributed merely to generalized immunosuppression.


So they are more vulnerable, but the vaccines work.

I can understand the hesitancy on vaccines when trying or are pregnant. Women routinely discuss how their period changes with vaccines. Seriously, a long, good description.
https://abc7.com/menstrual-cycles-and-c ... /10552668/

Trying to have a baby is nerve wracking. At my age I know numerous couples that failed, ones that had a tough time, and ones like my neighbors where child #4 was a non-issue.

We quickly go into conspiracy theory land discussing vaccines and women trying or who are pregnant in an in between imniosupresed/normal land.

This is why we want the young kids vaccinated. I'm not talking 5+, I'm talking 6mo+. That way they bring home a lower viral load to mommy. Please recall many (most?) couples are having kids later and if like me, there was no option to delay, it was already a geriatric pregnancy with the mom of my kids.

If you haven't had both members of a couple "cry on your shoulder" because a baby isn't happening, you wouldn't understand the pain, fear, and anguish of couples struggling to have children. Any little trick to improve the odds is employed. Anything anyone said is bad, is avoided.

This is probably the most complicated topic where you get an OBGYN and someone like my relative (doctor) in a coronavirus ward discussing. Many spread out the vaccines, but I'm not sure there is a science more than hunches on what is the best for mom (my relative) and what is best for baby (OBGYN).

Lightsaber

For those worried about Heart Inflamation. There is an interesting new study, still in preprint.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34341797/

Conclusions: Myocarditis (or pericarditis or myopericarditis) from primary COVID19 infection occurred at a rate as high as 450 per million in young males. Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine.

Without the vaccine, even young people run a higher risk than normal of heart damage. This article is not final, and the numbers may change, but it is an interesting article as I have heard a lot of folks worried about "heart risks". I guess the interesting question is whether the vaccine and non vaccine folks have underlying similarities or if the vaccine and virus use separate vectors to cause issues.

casinterest wrote:

For those worried about Heart Inflamation. There is an interesting new study, still in preprint.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34341797/

Conclusions: Myocarditis (or pericarditis or myopericarditis) from primary COVID19 infection occurred at a rate as high as 450 per million in young males. Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine.

Without the vaccine, even young people run a higher risk than normal of heart damage. This article is not final, and the numbers may change, but it is an interesting article as I have heard a lot of folks worried about "heart risks". I guess the interesting question is whether the vaccine and non vaccine folks have underlying similarities or if the vaccine and virus use separate vectors to cause issues.

Isn't 450 per million even higher than AZ's blood clot rate?
I think Pfizer should probably also investigate whether they would want to lower the dosage for people age between 12 and 25

c93..... Thanks for that post, I passed the link on to parents of younger grandkids, along with your suggestion for the lower dose.

@Lightsaber
Thanks for the pointers to info re: COVID-19 and pregnancy

https://www.ntv.co.jp/zero/pla-ichi/art ... ytjbg.html
Most mass-vaccination center in Japan will be closing by the end of this month, as most people who want to get the vaccine have already been vaccinated, and few are making new vaccination appointment.
https://www.oita-press.co.jp/1002000000 ... 1201000263
On the other hand, Japan is now forming plans to start booster vaccination from December.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

c93..... Thanks for that post, I passed the link on to parents of younger grandkids, along with your suggestion for the lower dose.

I don't think parents, or even frontline vaccination staff, can just arbitrarily decide how much dosage is good for their kids, both in term of protection, and in term of probability of side effect
It will need full on trials, like what Pfizers have did with younger aged kids, to determine what is the appropriate dosage.

The context for me was parent was thinking the eleven year old boy maybe should get the adult dose.

This image is facinating.

All US approved vaccines work, but there is definitely a ranking.

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-data-confirm ... 49164.html



An important note from the link:
The risk of death for fully vaccinated people under the age of 65 is virtually non-existent

What is even more telling is unvaccinated young adult deaths are higher than all but over age 80 vaccinated. (same source):



I believe this is why the advisory committee is recommending a J&J booster:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

I believe boosters will widen the gap. I am of the opinion mid-January to mid-March we start the next wave.

Lightsaber

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... ton-state/

Washington State has a mandate for state workers, and generally good compliance. Most departments are finding close to 90% vaccinated, and the remaining may be partially vaccinated. Exemptions are being processed.

76% of the seriously ill in Israeli hospitals are unvaccinated:
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News ... spx/315170

Considering how many are vaccinated, that shows a risk of being unvaccinated.

Lightsaber

casinterest wrote:

We are getting closer to the 5-12 set getting vaccinated. Pfizer's trial with a 10micorgram vaccine seem to be proving highly successful.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... d-effectiv

Giving a two-dose regimen of 10 μg (micrograms) administered 21 days apart for children between the ages of 5 to 11 years old was well tolerated, according to Pfizer and BioNTech. Side effects were also generally comparable to those of people between the ages of 16 and 25 years old who received the vaccine.

This trial used a smaller vaccine dosage, 10 μg, than the regular 30 μg dose currently used for people 12 and older. The dosage was selected as the preferred dose for safety and effectiveness in children.

Interesting size difference, especially when you consider as soon as you turn 12, you get the full 30micrograms. I know 11 year olds bigger than many 14 year olds.
I wonder if there will be a booster.

I think both Pfizer and Moderna should decrease the dosage for people under 30, especially men due to the risk of myocarditis. Anyway younger people tend to have stronger immune systems. They don't need high doses to get a good immune response.

Had the booster yesterday, Pfizer, as before no ill effects, nor from my annual flu vaccine last week.

GDB wrote:

Had the booster yesterday, Pfizer, as before no ill effects, nor from my annual flu vaccine last week.

I had my flu jab last week, but haven’t been called for my Covid booster yet.

GDB wrote:

Had the booster yesterday, Pfizer, as before no ill effects, nor from my annual flu vaccine last week.

Got mine last Thursday on top of JJ. Less side effects, basically just went to bed an hour early.

Fully ready for Thailand now.. lol.

best regards
Thomas

scbriml wrote:

GDB wrote:

Had the booster yesterday, Pfizer, as before no ill effects, nor from my annual flu vaccine last week.

I had my flu jab last week, but haven’t been called for my Covid booster yet.

Likely due to me listed as taking immune suppressants, same reason with the flu one since 2000.

flyingclrs727 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

We are getting closer to the 5-12 set getting vaccinated. Pfizer's trial with a 10micorgram vaccine seem to be proving highly successful.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... d-effectiv

Giving a two-dose regimen of 10 μg (micrograms) administered 21 days apart for children between the ages of 5 to 11 years old was well tolerated, according to Pfizer and BioNTech. Side effects were also generally comparable to those of people between the ages of 16 and 25 years old who received the vaccine.

This trial used a smaller vaccine dosage, 10 μg, than the regular 30 μg dose currently used for people 12 and older. The dosage was selected as the preferred dose for safety and effectiveness in children.

Interesting size difference, especially when you consider as soon as you turn 12, you get the full 30micrograms. I know 11 year olds bigger than many 14 year olds.
I wonder if there will be a booster.

I think both Pfizer and Moderna should decrease the dosage for people under 30, especially men due to the risk of myocarditis. Anyway younger people tend to have stronger immune systems. They don't need high doses to get a good immune response.

I can understand that move as well. It would be interesting to see if boosters could be given in 10-20-30 migrogram dosages going forward depending on age.

Casinterest - Data is lacking for the dosages, but I suspect many are working with whatever is the ideal dose for various demographics.

FWIW, according to this source, we should expect the all US businesses over 100 employees mandate in a week.
https://news.yahoo.com/ups-disney-meet- ... 11267.html

I personally think it will take longer, but only a few more weeks.

What scares me is the truckers. I personally expect them to protest in a way very similar to prior French farmer protests. I'm for vaccines but with logistics as badly messed up as it is, a vaccine mandate for truckers might be too interesting for the holidays.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

FWIW, according to this source, we should expect the all US businesses over 100 employees mandate in a week.
https://news.yahoo.com/ups-disney-meet- ... 11267.html

I personally think it will take longer, but only a few more weeks.

What scares me is the truckers. I personally expect them to protest in a way very similar to prior French farmer protests. I'm for vaccines but with logistics as badly messed up as it is, a vaccine mandate for truckers might be too interesting for the holidays.

Lightsaber

The moment you put a "we're special" tag on a group of people you can bet there are a few dozen other groups who will feel similarly special and make exactly the same demands.

JJJ wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

FWIW, according to this source, we should expect the all US businesses over 100 employees mandate in a week.
https://news.yahoo.com/ups-disney-meet- ... 11267.html

I personally think it will take longer, but only a few more weeks.

What scares me is the truckers. I personally expect them to protest in a way very similar to prior French farmer protests. I'm for vaccines but with logistics as badly messed up as it is, a vaccine mandate for truckers might be too interesting for the holidays.

Lightsaber

The moment you put a "we're special" tag on a group of people you can bet there are a few dozen other groups who will feel similarly special and make exactly the same demands.

it will be interesting to see how this mandate is rolled out. I can see it along the lines of get vaccinated, or show up to work everyday with a clean test, and by the way... your health insurance just went up by 200 a month.

casinterest wrote:

JJJ wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

FWIW, according to this source, we should expect the all US businesses over 100 employees mandate in a week.
https://news.yahoo.com/ups-disney-meet- ... 11267.html

I personally think it will take longer, but only a few more weeks.

What scares me is the truckers. I personally expect them to protest in a way very similar to prior French farmer protests. I'm for vaccines but with logistics as badly messed up as it is, a vaccine mandate for truckers might be too interesting for the holidays.

Lightsaber

The moment you put a "we're special" tag on a group of people you can bet there are a few dozen other groups who will feel similarly special and make exactly the same demands.

it will be interesting to see how this mandate is rolled out. I can see it along the lines of get vaccinated, or show up to work everyday with a clean test, and by the way... your health insurance just went up by 200 a month.

Most mandates have gone the route of get vaccinated or you're fired with no severance. Unless there's a valid medical reason, which will for sure fuel an interesting little industry of medically-mandated exceptions.

To my surprise, the supreme court refused to hear about Maine's vaccine mandate that has no religious exemptions.
https://www.msn.com/en-US/news/us/us-su ... reappshare


As noted before by JJJ, this is probably going to create a cottage industry in fake medical reasons.

casinterest wrote:

JJJ wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

FWIW, according to this source, we should expect the all US businesses over 100 employees mandate in a week.
https://news.yahoo.com/ups-disney-meet- ... 11267.html

I personally think it will take longer, but only a few more weeks.

What scares me is the truckers. I personally expect them to protest in a way very similar to prior French farmer protests. I'm for vaccines but with logistics as badly messed up as it is, a vaccine mandate for truckers might be too interesting for the holidays.

Lightsaber

The moment you put a "we're special" tag on a group of people you can bet there are a few dozen other groups who will feel similarly special and make exactly the same demands.

it will be interesting to see how this mandate is rolled out. I can see it along the lines of get vaccinated, or show up to work everyday with a clean test, and by the way... your health insurance just went up by 200 a month.

I'm not a trucker, so my interest is purely what will have impact. Details will matter. Most groups have no leverage. It goes off topic, but I think truckers are one of the critical shortages.

I fully expect insurance to go up for unvaccinated.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

What scares me is the truckers. I personally expect them to protest in a way very similar to prior French farmer protests. I'm for vaccines but with logistics as badly messed up as it is, a vaccine mandate for truckers might be too interesting for the holidays.

Lightsaber

Which is why in my position I've made it very, very clear to my management and stakeholders that our corporate policy extending our vaccination mandate to any "contractor" who comes on site (defined to include truck drivers) is a suicidal policy.

We have not stopped production in the last 20 months. We very early on instituted annoying-but-effective policies to avoid transmission amongst people in our warehouses. We have *zero* documented, verified, or even alleged cases of transmission between truck drivers and any of our warehouse or security personnel at any site in the US. So instituting a vaccine mandate is not going to make the situation better. What it will do is cause truck drivers to say, "We have people begging us to haul their freight. You need us way more than we need you. Goodbye."

They can get vaccinated on their own schedule. Forcing non-employees who come on site to be vaccinated, in this market, is a very myopic policy considering the risk we've mitigated effectively for closing in, unfortunately, on 2 years.

This religious question really needs to be directly confronted, as it's coming up in many countries.

And it's simple: when it comes to public health, and national security. there should be NO religious exceptions. Period.

Call me anti-religion, fine It could be anything: religion, philosophy, fraternity, football club. If your group has a stance that is in direct conflict with security or health, security and health should always prevail. Sorry. You should have the right to take it to a court, but again, the ruling should be based on overwhelming evidence to CREATE an exception, the burden of proof should be on the individual.

If you don't want to pose for ID pictures without a head covering because of religion, sorry. You must take it off. If you don't want to do a public health action because of religion, sorry again. If you want to cover yourself fully in daily life, fine, you are only affecting yourself as an individual. Same with refusing some blood transfer or not accepting some stem-cell derived treatment. NO problem, and it is a very respectful choice.

But you do not have the right to impose your values on everyone else, which is what actually happens when some objection like this is made to override the work of the vast majority. Minority protection from majority tyranny does not mean the majority must be tyrannized to uphold minority protection purity of ideal.

cjg225 wrote:

They can get vaccinated on their own schedule. Forcing non-employees who come on site to be vaccinated, in this market, is a very myopic policy considering the risk we've mitigated effectively for closing in, unfortunately, on 2 years.

As far as transport goes, a lot of companies over here just physically separated the places where drivers can go. To the point of putting up temporary facilities (portable toilets, tents for paperwork, etc.) so as to keep the main facilities controlled.

JJJ wrote:

cjg225 wrote:

They can get vaccinated on their own schedule. Forcing non-employees who come on site to be vaccinated, in this market, is a very myopic policy considering the risk we've mitigated effectively for closing in, unfortunately, on 2 years.

As far as transport goes, a lot of companies over here just physically separated the places where drivers can go. To the point of putting up temporary facilities (portable toilets, tents for paperwork, etc.) so as to keep the main facilities controlled.

First, kudos on no trucker to employee transmission cjg225. I in agreement, other mitigation can occur. As much as I would like to see truckers brought into compliance too, I cannot figure out a way until we fix the logistical issues.

For now, social distancing is a great idea. A better step is get all the kids vaccinated, say age 6mo+. Sigh...

Lightsaber