lightsaber wrote:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59615005

a third booster prevents around 75% of people getting any Covid symptoms.

Good, not great news. To myself, this means the vaccines are now a 3 dose course.

With SII with 500 million doses on hand and looking to cut production by 125 million doses, there is supply, not demand:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 1.html/amp

Lightsaber

o There is currently no evidence of increased reinfection risk at the population
level, but preliminary analyses indicate approximately three- to eight-fold
increased risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant.

o The Variant Technical Group reviewed the available neutralisation data from
published international and internal UK studies (UK Health Security Agency,
University of Oxford). UK data will be published as soon as possible and cited
here when available. Across 5 preliminary live virus studies (3 international
and 2 UK), there was a 20- to 40-fold reduction in neutralising activity by
Pfizer 2-dose vaccinee sera for Omicron compared to early pandemic viruses.
There was at least 10 fold loss of activity when compared to Delta; in both UK
studies this was over 20 fold. A greater reduction in activity was seen for AZ 2-
dose sera, and for a high proportion of such sera, neutralising activity fell
below the limit of quantification in the assay. An mRNA booster dose resulted
in an increase in neutralising activity irrespective of primary vaccination type,
including an increase in the proportion of samples that were above the limit of
quantification. This is true regardless of which vaccine was used for the
primary course. These data are from the early period after the booster and
data are urgently required on the durability of neutralising activity

o early estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection
find a significantly lower VE for against Omicron infection compared to Delta
infection. Nevertheless, a moderate to high vaccine effectiveness of 70 to 75%
is seen in the early period after a booster dose. With previous variants,
vaccine effectiveness against severe disease, including hospitalisation and
death, has been higher than effectiveness against mild disease. It will be a
few weeks before effectiveness against severe disease with Omicron can be
estimated, however based on this experience, this is likely to be substantially
higher than the estimates against symptomatic disease. The duration of
restored protection after mRNA boosting is not known at this juncture

Consent to vaccination
Although we encourage all citizens to receive the COVID-19 vaccination, it is not compulsory or mandatory. Vaccination will be given only with the consent of the person to be vaccinated after the information provided. Please get vaccinated of your own decision, understanding both the effectiveness in preventing infectious diseases and the risk of side effects. No vaccination will be given without consent. Please do not force anyone in your workplace or those who around you to be vaccinated, and do not discriminate against those who have not been vaccinated.

・Human Rights Counseling in foreign languages

art wrote:

The UK population is responding strongly to a request for people to get a 3rd booster jab. Health websites offering a booster booking service cannot cope with the demand.The government is mobilising resources to dramatically increase daily vaccination numbers. Around 35% of the population of England (ie around 20 million people) has received a second dose but no booster.

Boris Johnson reports that 40% of COVID-19 infections in London are of the omicron variant (source BBC news). That is remarkable - UK level was <1% two weeks ago. Let's see how it does elsewhere and how fast those countries respond.

art wrote:

c933103 wrote:

http://www.breakingthenews.net/news/details/56931731
South Africa preliminary data after analyzing ~78,000 Omicron cases:
- 2-dose Pfizer provide ~70% protection against hospitalization
- And ~33% protection against infection

How does Omicron translate into increased hopitalisation versus Alpha? IIRC Pfizer trials showed 95% 'protection' against Alpha. Can 6 times as many 2 x Pfizer jabbed people be expected to need hospital treatment when Omicron becomes the sole infectious strain?

lightsaber wrote:

Sinovac boosted does excellent:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1241588.shtml

Sinovac 2-dose, not providing Omicron immunity:
None of the 25 vaccinated with two doses of the Sinovac vaccine showed any neutralizing antibodies against the omicron variant.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Everything is now 3 doses...

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Sinovac boosted does excellent:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1241588.shtml

Sinovac 2-dose, not providing Omicron immunity:
None of the 25 vaccinated with two doses of the Sinovac vaccine showed any neutralizing antibodies against the omicron variant.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Everything is now 3 doses...

Eh it is saying 7 out of 20 in the first (2-dose vaccinated) group having response against Omicron.
But they only say positive or negative, unlike other vaccine studies that have quantitative numbers on their antibody efficiency level.
I suspect the reason might be SinoVac's inherent lower level of antibody generating capability, as from early 2021, when HK start offering Pfizer/Biontech and SinoVac vaccines to residents, there were multiple reports on local TV news saying that people getting Pfizer vaccines often have their antibody level at 1000+ after 2-dose vaccinated, while those that have got SinoVac only have ~50-100. (No URL because they were TV reports)

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Sinovac boosted does excellent:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1241588.shtml

Sinovac 2-dose, not providing Omicron immunity:
None of the 25 vaccinated with two doses of the Sinovac vaccine showed any neutralizing antibodies against the omicron variant.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Everything is now 3 doses...

Eh it is saying 7 out of 20 in the first (2-dose vaccinated) group having response against Omicron.
But they only say positive or negative, unlike other vaccine studies that have quantitative numbers on their antibody efficiency level.
I suspect the reason might be SinoVac's inherent lower level of antibody generating capability, as from early 2021, when HK start offering Pfizer/Biontech and SinoVac vaccines to residents, there were multiple reports on local TV news saying that people getting Pfizer vaccines often have their antibody level at 1000+ after 2-dose vaccinated, while those that have got SinoVac only have ~50-100. (No URL because they were TV reports)

So 7 of 45... That is 15.5% generating antibodies vs. Omicron, but how effective? That means too many will have it tough.

But as per my 1st link, the booster works well. It looks like all vaccines are 3 doses now. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Eh it is saying 7 out of 20 in the first (2-dose vaccinated) group having response against Omicron.
But they only say positive or negative, unlike other vaccine studies that have quantitative numbers on their antibody efficiency level.
I suspect the reason might be SinoVac's inherent lower level of antibody generating capability, as from early 2021, when HK start offering Pfizer/Biontech and SinoVac vaccines to residents, there were multiple reports on local TV news saying that people getting Pfizer vaccines often have their antibody level at 1000+ after 2-dose vaccinated, while those that have got SinoVac only have ~50-100. (No URL because they were TV reports)

So 7 of 45... That is 15.5% generating antibodies vs. Omicron, but how effective? That means too many will have it tough.

But as per my 1st link, the booster works well. It looks like all vaccines are 3 doses now. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber

No it is 7 out of 20 for the 2-dose group, and then 45 out of 48 in the booster group, that have "tested positive in neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant"

But "tested positive in neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant" mean little in itself, because for example for Pfizer vaccine, they can still measure those people with 2-dose have their antibody efficiency reduced 20-40x against Omicron. Which mean there are some, despite marginal, efficiency against the virus, yet the 45 out of 48 for booster mentioned here didn't mention how much efficiency do they actually got and simply mean there are some response being detected, which can range from very effective response to the marginal cases in 2-dose Pfizer's case. Given that there are still 3 out of 48 failed to have their sera "tested positive in neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant" after receiving SinoVac booster dose, it would appears that maybe a number of those 45 out of 48 "tested positive" could actually quite marginal in result too.

lightsaber wrote:

I was discussing the 2 dose group where a block of 20 weren't showing antibodies.

Pfizer also reported results from a second study in adults with Covid at normal risk of developing severe disease, a group that included vaccinated people. That study failed to meet its main goal, of increasing the sustained alleviation of self-reported symptoms, at an interim analysis; the study is continuing. But Pfizer said that there was a decrease in hospitalization in that group, too, although numbers were small.

In the study of high-risk patients, called EPIC-HR, 5 of 697 patients who received a five-day course of Paxlovid were hospitalized or died, compared to 44 of 682 who received a placebo. There were no deaths in the Paxlovid group and 9 in the placebo group. Adverse events occurred at similar rates between the placebo and Paxlovid groups, and patients on Paxlovid were less likely to have a severe problem or to stop taking the drug due to a perceived side effect. Patients in the study were considered high risk because they were not vaccinated and had at least one characteristic or underlying medical condition that increased their risk of Covid-19. These could include being over 65, being overweight, or having cardiovascular disease.

The study of patients who were at lower risk, called EPIC-SR, showed that 2 of 333 patients who received a five-day course of Paxlovid were hospitalized compared to 8 of 329 who received placebo. The results were similar in a second analysis, Pfizer said, but barely missed statistical significance. Rates of adverse events were similar between the drug and placebo.

lightsaber wrote:

Singapore just released a study on the effectiveness of vaccines preventing severe illness:
Moderna 97%
Pfizer 90%
Sinovac 60%

Time frame would have been for the Delta variant.

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/as ... pore-study

Sinovac seems very good when boosted. All vaccines just seem to need a booster.

lightsaber wrote:

WHO has listed NovaVax under emergency approval.

https://news.yahoo.com/issues-emergency ... 40474.html

I'm going to admit, I was wrong. I didn't think this would happen after so long with NovaVax always 2 months away from greatness until now.

I wish them luck on production increases. Besides India and Takeda (Japan's 150 million doses), are there any other production plans?
https://impakter.com/game-changer-fight ... x-vaccine/

As of this morning, there were 8.63 billion doses administered. I am of the opinion we will need to deliver 24 to 30 billion by the end of this year to get out of Covid19 purgatory. So while it is nice to add another option, I'm not sure NovaVax will move the needle. At least it is easy to transport (e.g., for mobile clinics) due to broader temperature limits.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus


SII plans a NovaVax children's dose within six months, age 3+:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/indias-s ... 41664.html


Lightsaber

Late edit: WHO yet to receive all Sputnik V data:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/russia-y ... 16211.html

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Singapore just released a study on the effectiveness of vaccines preventing severe illness:
Moderna 97%
Pfizer 90%
Sinovac 60%

Time frame would have been for the Delta variant.

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/as ... pore-study

Sinovac seems very good when boosted. All vaccines just seem to need a booster.

I guess the question is how many boosters? When Moderna first came out with their warning on Omicron, it was entirely feasible that we will need three boosters for the previous variants and three boosters for the new variants.

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Singapore just released a study on the effectiveness of vaccines preventing severe illness:
Moderna 97%
Pfizer 90%
Sinovac 60%

Time frame would have been for the Delta variant.

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/as ... pore-study

Sinovac seems very good when boosted. All vaccines just seem to need a booster.

I guess the question is how many boosters? When Moderna first came out with their warning on Omicron, it was entirely feasible that we will need three boosters for the previous variants and three boosters for the new variants.

lightsaber wrote:

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Singapore just released a study on the effectiveness of vaccines preventing severe illness:
Moderna 97%
Pfizer 90%
Sinovac 60%

Time frame would have been for the Delta variant.

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/as ... pore-study

Sinovac seems very good when boosted. All vaccines just seem to need a booster.

I guess the question is how many boosters? When Moderna first came out with their warning on Omicron, it was entirely feasible that we will need three boosters for the previous variants and three boosters for the new variants.

I haven't heard anything on that many doses.

Get vaccinated. If it goes past 6 months, get boosted.

Then in a bit a variant booster.

I'm a fan of nasal vaccines to reduce the spread, but when?

Unfortunately, hospitals still fill up. Until we can be certain that stops (I have people I care about waiting on "elective surgeries.") Since I just completed two "elective surgeries" to cure my Covid19 long haul symptoms, I very much feel for these people.

Lightsaber

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

I guess the question is how many boosters? When Moderna first came out with their warning on Omicron, it was entirely feasible that we will need three boosters for the previous variants and three boosters for the new variants.

I haven't heard anything on that many doses.

Get vaccinated. If it goes past 6 months, get boosted.

Then in a bit a variant booster.

I'm a fan of nasal vaccines to reduce the spread, but when?

Unfortunately, hospitals still fill up. Until we can be certain that stops (I have people I care about waiting on "elective surgeries.") Since I just completed two "elective surgeries" to cure my Covid19 long haul symptoms, I very much feel for these people.

Lightsaber

Then comes the question
Countries that shorten booster interval to like 3 months only, can such shortened interval provide the necessary boost?

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

Another question I have had is whether having three doses of a vaccine with a long time between each dose, especially the second and third dose, would result in it being less effective against the Omicron. The first dose would have waned by the time you had your third dose?

art wrote:

UK reaches record number of COVID-19 infections for a single day. I think that Omicron has hit the fan here.
Previous record set 8th Jan 2021: 68K
New record set 15th Dec 2021: 78K

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I think this is moving too fast for new vaccinations (1st/2nd/3rd) to help much.

The Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, the largest biomedical research facility of the DOD, is close to a breakthrough after two years of work into a vaccine that would work not only against the existing strains and variants but also other potential ones, reported Defense One.

Walter Reed’s vaccine, named Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle Covid-19 vaccine, or SpFN, completed animal trials earlier this year with positive results. Phase 1 of human trials have also been conducted this year with positive results, Kayvon Modjarrad, the director of Walter Reed’s infectious diseases branch, said

art wrote:

My hope is that omicron is relatively mild and that its high rate of transmission will result in a very high number of cases, raising immunity in the population faster than vaccination can. Furthermore catching omicron may be the quickest way to produce a level of immunity in the unvaccinated who refuse vaccination.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Potentially good news out of South Africa. The Omicron wave may diminish almost as fast as it started.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... rus-cases/

c933103 wrote:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-mi ... sk-groups/
In world first, Israel set to give 4th COVID shot to over 60s, at-risk groups

The experts, a government body called the Pandemic Treatment Staff, recommended that medical personnel, adults over the age of 60 and other at-risk groups get the fourth dose, after waiting at least four months since the third dose.

Prof. Galia Rahav, who heads Sheba’s infectious diseases unit and is on the expert panel, said the decision to recommend the extra boosters was “not simple” given the paucity of data showing that the protection offered by the third shot was waning. “But at the same time. there are terribly frightening numbers from what is happening in the wider world,” she told Army Radio, referring to the fast-spreading Omicron strain.

Francoflier wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-mi ... sk-groups/
In world first, Israel set to give 4th COVID shot to over 60s, at-risk groups

The experts, a government body called the Pandemic Treatment Staff, recommended that medical personnel, adults over the age of 60 and other at-risk groups get the fourth dose, after waiting at least four months since the third dose.

Prof. Galia Rahav, who heads Sheba’s infectious diseases unit and is on the expert panel, said the decision to recommend the extra boosters was “not simple” given the paucity of data showing that the protection offered by the third shot was waning. “But at the same time. there are terribly frightening numbers from what is happening in the wider world,” she told Army Radio, referring to the fast-spreading Omicron strain.

This is pretty much evidence that some governments are making decisions out of fear, panic and gut feelings rather than evidence and facts.
There is no science, studies or data on the efficacy of a 4th dose. Even worse, there is no risk v benefit analysis. This may be a low risk approach, but this is still irresponsible.
Their strategy seems to revolve around pumping people full of vaccine in a desperate and frenzied attempt to keep antibody levels up forever.
If Israel wants effective measures, they should look at increasing their relatively low overall vaccination rate rather than hypervaccinating those who already are.

It's not an isolated way of thinking. The media-fuelled terror surrounding Covid is pushing people, especially deciders, into an irrational mindset where the goal should be to prevent people from getting sick altogether, rather than one focused on preventing hospitalizations and death and protecting the more fragile...
In reality, we may want the opposite to happen:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... erm=121621

Studies are starting to appear showing that breakthrough infections create an extremely strong immune response, much higher than what can be achieved with boosters.

Once an initial baseline immunity rate is established, the best way out of pandemicity and to achieve endemicity may well be to allow breakthrough infections to complete the overall immunity picture. We need to stop treating every new wave like the end of the World and pretend that vaccines are ineffective because they allow breakthrough infections. That's not what we should expect of them.

c933103 wrote:

https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/12/20/omicron-3-vaccine-doses-are-not-enough-to-stop-the-new-covid-variant-warns-biontech-ceo
Omicron: 3 vaccine doses are not enough to stop the new COVID variant, warns BioNTech CEO

"We must be aware that even triple-vaccinated are likely to transmit the disease…It is obvious we are far from 95 per cent effectiveness that we obtained against the initial virus," Ugur Sahin told the French daily Le Monde in an interview published on Monday.

Sahin said testing for COVID-19 is important, especially for the elderly and during winter, as are other protective measures such as mask-wearing, adding, “otherwise we will not be able to control the rapid expansion of this new variant.”

Francoflier wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Potentially good news out of South Africa. The Omicron wave may diminish almost as fast as it started.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... rus-cases/

The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long...
It only makes sense that increased contagion means that all susceptible individuals in a group are infected faster. I believe Omicron waves will be very short.

Francoflier wrote:

This is pretty much evidence that some governments are making decisions out of fear, panic and gut feelings rather than evidence and facts.
There is no science, studies or data on the efficacy of a 4th dose. Even worse, there is no risk v benefit analysis. This may be a low risk approach, but this is still irresponsible.

c933103 wrote:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/14/who-omicron-spreading-at-unprecedented-rate
WHO Tedros: "WHO is not against boosters. We’re against inequity." in comment against countries launched booster program for their entire adult population

art wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84XMFVcLScw Jump to 4m 0secs in the video

Video is a talk by a British MD on a University of Hong Kong study indicating that omicron reproduces at 7000% the rate of delta in the bronchial passages but at 10% the rate of delta in the lung alvioli. Jump to 4m 0secs in the video to skip intro.

Aesma wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/14/who-omicron-spreading-at-unprecedented-rate
WHO Tedros: "WHO is not against boosters. We’re against inequity." in comment against countries launched booster program for their entire adult population

The WHO could do something for a change, like vaccination missions to countries where governments are inept.

This has nothing to do with rich countries hoarding vaccines.

lightsaber wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

This is pretty much evidence that some governments are making decisions out of fear, panic and gut feelings rather than evidence and facts.
There is no science, studies or data on the efficacy of a 4th dose. Even worse, there is no risk v benefit analysis. This may be a low risk approach, but this is still irresponsible.

I disagree and feel this is a responsible approach. When one looks at hospitalizations, early prevention pays off tremendously. Israel was rapid to the booster, ahead of the data and they really benefited (see hospital trends):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... untry=~ISR

As the link noted (reposted): https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-mi ... sk-groups/

The experts, a government body called the Pandemic Treatment Staff, recommended that medical personnel, adults over the age of 60 and other at-risk groups get the fourth dose, after waiting at least four months since the third dose.

We know immunity fades. By waiting until 4 months the risk will be extremely low. It is also, so far, only for the most vulnerable group. The risk the other way, letting this group have immunity fade, results in another hospital spike. It is a judgement call. I personally believe exactly the right judgement call. I have several vulnerable friends at very high risk of covid19 hospitalization who received their 3rd dose very early already trying for their 4th as all indications are if they let their immunity wane, they are in more trouble.

Lightsaber

The World Health Organisation said 12,971,729 vaccine doses have been administered in Nigeria as of Dec. 19.

Health experts say Nigeria needs to triple its vaccination drive from just over 100,000 doses a day to meet its target to inoculate more than half its population by the end of next year.

Francoflier wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

This is pretty much evidence that some governments are making decisions out of fear, panic and gut feelings rather than evidence and facts.
There is no science, studies or data on the efficacy of a 4th dose. Even worse, there is no risk v benefit analysis. This may be a low risk approach, but this is still irresponsible.

I disagree and feel this is a responsible approach. When one looks at hospitalizations, early prevention pays off tremendously. Israel was rapid to the booster, ahead of the data and they really benefited (see hospital trends):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... untry=~ISR

As the link noted (reposted): https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-mi ... sk-groups/

The experts, a government body called the Pandemic Treatment Staff, recommended that medical personnel, adults over the age of 60 and other at-risk groups get the fourth dose, after waiting at least four months since the third dose.

We know immunity fades. By waiting until 4 months the risk will be extremely low. It is also, so far, only for the most vulnerable group. The risk the other way, letting this group have immunity fade, results in another hospital spike. It is a judgement call. I personally believe exactly the right judgement call. I have several vulnerable friends at very high risk of covid19 hospitalization who received their 3rd dose very early already trying for their 4th as all indications are if they let their immunity wane, they are in more trouble.

Lightsaber

I am unconvinced that the end of Israel's last wave was directly connected to booster shots. Boosters, and vaccines generally speaking, are good at protecting the vulnerable and keeping people out of the hospital, but not really at cutting transmission enough to abruptly end infection waves.

There are many countries which went through waves which seemed to end abruptly with no correlation to a concurrent vaccination campaign. Japan is a good example.

Using descl's figures above for Chile as an example, while boosters do help in cutting hospitalizations further, we're now chasing fractions of a percent, whereas the vast majority of hospitalizations are still made up of the unvaccinated...
I have nothing against this seemingly endless cycle of vaccination - the vaccines are available and safe - but that is not what will stop the hospitals becoming overloaded. Over time, the benefits of continued vaccination become asymptotic to a certain protection level that can't be exceeded, but which should be enough for all but the unluckiest.

If we are to make inroads in reducing severe illness from Covid and reducing unnecessary hospitalizations, we need to vaccinate the unvaccinated... or stop helping them when they do get sick.
Easier said than done, I know.

The Omicron craze should not distract us from the fact that this crisis is going on for much longer than it should because of the unvaccinated. Either through their own idiocy or worse, through the ineptitude of their leaders to organize effective vaccinations campaigns as other noted above.

This article sheds some light on the status campaign in Nigeria, and it's not pretty:
https://news.yahoo.com/nigeria-destroys ... 34850.html

The World Health Organisation said 12,971,729 vaccine doses have been administered in Nigeria as of Dec. 19.

...out of a population of 200+ million.

Health experts say Nigeria needs to triple its vaccination drive from just over 100,000 doses a day to meet its target to inoculate more than half its population by the end of next year.

Meaning that they'll be lucky to reach 50% in another 12 months

I would bet that most of the next variants will come from Africa.

Francoflier wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

This is pretty much evidence that some governments are making decisions out of fear, panic and gut feelings rather than evidence and facts.
There is no science, studies or data on the efficacy of a 4th dose. Even worse, there is no risk v benefit analysis. This may be a low risk approach, but this is still irresponsible.

I disagree and feel this is a responsible approach. When one looks at hospitalizations, early prevention pays off tremendously. Israel was rapid to the booster, ahead of the data and they really benefited (see hospital trends):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... untry=~ISR

As the link noted (reposted): https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-mi ... sk-groups/

The experts, a government body called the Pandemic Treatment Staff, recommended that medical personnel, adults over the age of 60 and other at-risk groups get the fourth dose, after waiting at least four months since the third dose.

We know immunity fades. By waiting until 4 months the risk will be extremely low. It is also, so far, only for the most vulnerable group. The risk the other way, letting this group have immunity fade, results in another hospital spike. It is a judgement call. I personally believe exactly the right judgement call. I have several vulnerable friends at very high risk of covid19 hospitalization who received their 3rd dose very early already trying for their 4th as all indications are if they let their immunity wane, they are in more trouble.

Lightsaber

I am unconvinced that the end of Israel's last wave was directly connected to booster shots. Boosters, and vaccines generally speaking, are good at protecting the vulnerable and keeping people out of the hospital, but not really at cutting transmission enough to abruptly end infection waves.

There are many countries which went through waves which seemed to end abruptly with no correlation to a concurrent vaccination campaign. Japan is a good example.

Using descl's figures above for Chile as an example, while boosters do help in cutting hospitalizations further, we're now chasing fractions of a percent, whereas the vast majority of hospitalizations are still made up of the unvaccinated...
I have nothing against this seemingly endless cycle of vaccination - the vaccines are available and safe - but that is not what will stop the hospitals becoming overloaded. Over time, the benefits of continued vaccination become asymptotic to a certain protection level that can't be exceeded, but which should be enough for all but the unluckiest.

If we are to make inroads in reducing severe illness from Covid and reducing unnecessary hospitalizations, we need to vaccinate the unvaccinated... or stop helping them when they do get sick.
Easier said than done, I know.

The Omicron craze should not distract us from the fact that this crisis is going on for much longer than it should because of the unvaccinated. Either through their own idiocy or worse, through the ineptitude of their leaders to organize effective vaccinations campaigns as other noted above.

This article sheds some light on the status campaign in Nigeria, and it's not pretty:
https://news.yahoo.com/nigeria-destroys ... 34850.html

The World Health Organisation said 12,971,729 vaccine doses have been administered in Nigeria as of Dec. 19.

...out of a population of 200+ million.

Health experts say Nigeria needs to triple its vaccination drive from just over 100,000 doses a day to meet its target to inoculate more than half its population by the end of next year.

Meaning that they'll be lucky to reach 50% in another 12 months

I would bet that most of the next variants will come from Africa.