Anti-vaccine televangelist Marcus Lamb dies of COVID-19

https://news.yahoo.com/anti-vaccine-tel ... 23991.html

Live by the sword, die by the sword.... of stupidity.
RIP.

Initial/Very Early reports out of Israel suggest that the vaccines are effective.

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellne ... day-687392

Later in the evening, a report by Channel 12 said the Pfizer vaccine is just slightly less effective in preventing infection with Omicron than with Delta – 90% as opposed to 95% – while it is as effective – around 93% – in preventing serious symptoms at least for those vaccinated with a booster.

At the same time, those not inoculated have a 2.4 times greater chance of developing serious symptoms, a significant figure.

We will have to see what future reports show.

The Moderna CEO seems much less enthusiastic.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-omic ... e-moderna/

"I think it's going to be a material drop," Bancel added. "I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to  . . . are like, 'This is not going to be good.'"

Omicron now in California, recent South Africa traveler.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 814830002/

casinterest wrote:

Initial/Very Early reports out of Israel suggest that the vaccines are effective.

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellne ... day-687392

Later in the evening, a report by Channel 12 said the Pfizer vaccine is just slightly less effective in preventing infection with Omicron than with Delta – 90% as opposed to 95% – while it is as effective – around 93% – in preventing serious symptoms at least for those vaccinated with a booster.

At the same time, those not inoculated have a 2.4 times greater chance of developing serious symptoms, a significant figure.

We will have to see what future reports show.

The Moderna CEO seems much less enthusiastic.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-omic ... e-moderna/

"I think it's going to be a material drop," Bancel added. "I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to  . . . are like, 'This is not going to be good.'"

I would expect Moderna (boosted) and kids vaccines to trend similarly. This means we can keep living the "boosted lifestyle," with some precautions (masks, social bubbles, careful around vulnerable/unvaccinated kids).

We do need to export more vaccines. Personally, I've had to cajole many friends to get their booster.

Locally the kids vaccines are supply/source constrained. I am so happy that my youngest now has 2 jabs, although to have enough T-cells isn't until later.

Fmrcaptcadet recommended the excellent book"The Psychology of Pandemics: Preparing for the Next Global Outbreak of Infectious Disease" by Steven Taylor. It really predicted well enough where we are.

At some point, the responsible just have to accept some will not do the right thing and allow them their natural immunity. Not yet, hospitals are overwhelmed in too many areas. But soon. I just had a successful operation to kill off a nerve damaged by coronavirus causing spurious signals and long haul fatigue; dare I admit that it concerned me the final step was to use those electric medical paddles to restart my heart? Why the heck would anyone voluntarily subject themselves to that intensity of a nervous system reset by avoiding vaccines? I recommend getting boosted.

I posted links above how 40% get covid long haul... even mild cases. Well update, it is more than half per newer data:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 114112.htm

And how the heck did they figure out that procedure? Eh, it worked. Life is good.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Locally the kids vaccines are supply/source constrained.

its not allowed in the US to just use adult vaccine and adjust the dosis on site?

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Locally the kids vaccines are supply/source constrained.

its not allowed in the US to just use adult vaccine and adjust the dosis on site?

best regards
Thomas

There is a specific formula (dilution) and special syringe for the 10 micro gram dose.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/p ... ldren.html

Children 5 years and older can get the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine. Children 5 through 11 years old will receive a separate vaccine formulation denoted with an orange cap of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, and will receive the vaccine with a smaller needle. An overview of the description of the differences in the adult/adolescent formulation and pediatric formulationpdf icon is available.

The emergency approval requires the above. Only sites that signed up for Pfizer boosters may distribute kids vaccines. Only 4 of 20 local pharmacies give kid vaccines as only those 4 carry Pfizer. Only one has J&J. 19 of 20 local pharmacies have Moderna.

Only one of the dozens of local pediatricians signed up to distribute (only takes reservations from current patients). I'm sure you have heard how overwhelmed pediatricians are due to delayed care for normal stuff.

If you get online between 5am and 7am, you can reserve a week out for J&J or Pfizer. Otherwise, no luck.

Walkups for Moderna vaccine or boosters+flu shots are easy before 3:30pm weekdays, otherwise by appointment only locally.

Full disclosure: The local two 24/7 pharmacies have Pfizer and Moderna appointments 2am to 4am available most days. That doesn't work for kids (but you could). Yes, kids are being vaccinated at midnight...

Lightsaber

ps: There has only been one "pop-up clinic" locally and the 2nd dose clinic happens next week. The low vaccination areas have dozens of pop up clinics going too much unused, but you must have an address feeding the local high school to sign up. So areas with high vaccination rates require parents to scramble while areas with parents who don't want the vaccine have the supply. I live in costal Southern California.

My work has gone to an on site clinic every two weeks, so no excuses at my Fortune 500 aerospace employer. Ironically, they run out of Moderna (booster or regular) appointments/walk ups by lunch and J&J by 2pm (clinics run to 10pm to serve 1st, 2nd, and 3rd shifts). The week before the clinic, 2nd and 3rd shift employees get 1st dibs on making appointments with 3rd shift getting the head start). Pfizer is available until 10pm (more supply, but that is just based on freezer size in the delivery truck). Only 30 micro gram Pfizer is available (employees encouraged to bring in all family).

Every new infection is an opportunity for the virus to mutate and every mutation is an opportunity for the virus to become more contagious. I understand that that is the scientific wisdom (established to be the case; a fact). To me it follows that homo sapiens needs to exercise a duty of care to the members of the species. Those who wilfully decline that duty should not, in my opinion, enjoy the same freedoms as those who do. In the same way that there are crimes of omission as well as crimes of comission, I suggest that all who insist placing others at elevated risk by refusing vaccination should be viewed as a threat and treated accordingly: they should be subject to measures to reduce the risk they present to others. Quarantining, obligatory social distancing and mouth and nose covering when outside their abode, denial of access to all non-essential enclosed spaces without negative testing at their cost all strike me as parts of a panoply of reasonable responses.

As for vaccinating the human race, I think that a worldwide vaccination strategy should be pursued rather than the tribalistic implementation seen hitherto. Science should be brought to bear: should it be held that the more effective way of mitigating the effects of this disease is to give a single dose to as many as possible on this earth before administering a second dose in the same manner, then booster doses later, let us 'follow the science'.

The irony I perceive in the more priviledged societies pursuing a high level of protection against COVID-19 through multiple doses of their population is that their disregard for the level of vaccination in other populations raises the prospects of their 'cast iron' protection being undermined by a mutant rendering some or all current vaccines less potent or even impotent.

IMO a change in thinking is required to avert an ongoing cycle of new mutant > new round of partial world vaccination > new mutant.

art - very much agree with about all you say. But I think the barriers to vaccinate the world are the need of political solutions. For the most part vaccines are being pumped out as fast as the various national infrastructures can jab them into arms. In part this is because that production, packaging, deliveries, and willingness to take the vaccine are all fraught with difficulties. Or in three words, It Is Hard.

https://nordot.app/839455145033760768?c ... 7727945729
Japanese government elevated warning against myocarditis and pericarditis among young male for Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, from "caution" to "severe side effect", and require doctors reporting any such cases.
However, the government also noted that these symptoms will also be caused by corona infection and at a higher chance than vaccination, hence continue supporting vaccination based on the ground of merit greater than demerit.

Can anyone spot the Air China crew in this photo at LAX? Got to give them credit for taking masking seriously.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cd ... a-rcna7262

SuperGee wrote:

Can anyone spot the Air China crew in this photo at LAX? Got to give them credit for taking masking seriously.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cd ... a-rcna7262

Actually, COVID had nothing to do with it - they just saw that one of their passengers was getting ready to board while holding a Taco Bell carryout bag.

Re: the appearance of omicron, is this doing what a virus would hope to do - be more contagious than the competition (delta) but incidentally not make the host as ill as the competition? Just what we hosts want, isn't it?

I just heard on BBC news that it is said to be spreading twice as fast as delta in South Africa. If it produces mild disease and ousts delta worldwide, will we need to keep vaccinating so urgently in the future?

art wrote:

Re: the appearance of omicron, is this doing what a virus would hope to do - be more contagious than the competition (delta) but incidentally not make the host as ill as the competition. Just what we want, isn't it?

No data yet

art wrote:

Re: the appearance of omicron, is this doing what a virus would hope to do - be more contagious than the competition (delta) but incidentally not make the host as ill as the competition? Just what we hosts want, isn't it?

I just heard on BBC news that it is spreading twice as fast as delta in South Africa. If it produces mild disease and ousts delta worldwide, will we need to keep vaccinating so urgently in the future?

Hospitalization rate against infection rate is the data point everyone is waiting for.

Aaron747 wrote:

art wrote:

Re: the appearance of omicron, is this doing what a virus would hope to do - be more contagious than the competition (delta) but incidentally not make the host as ill as the competition? Just what we hosts want, isn't it?

I just heard on BBC news that it is spreading twice as fast as delta in South Africa. If it produces mild disease and ousts delta worldwide, will we need to keep vaccinating so urgently in the future?

Hospitalization rate against infection rate is the data point everyone is waiting for.

That should become apparent within a few weeks. I wait to see how much new case rates rise and how many result in hospitalisation. If case rates rise but hospitalisation rates drop proportionally, could we be looking at the beginning of the end of the COVID-19 crisis?

If the disease is less mild in the acute stage, but still produces substantial long term organ damage, that's still not good.

Chemist wrote:

If the disease is less mild in the acute stage, but still produces substantial long term organ damage, that's still not good.

Any chance that omicron will not have that effect? Can it be expected that as the virus mutates it gradually becomes less damaging to organs? I don't have a clue.

PS Did you mean to say "If the disease is milder in the acute stage..." ?

art wrote:

Chemist wrote:

If the disease is less mild in the acute stage, but still produces substantial long term organ damage, that's still not good.

Any chance that omicron will not have that effect? Can it be expected that as the virus mutates it gradually becomes less damaging to organs? I don't have a clue.

PS Did you mean to say "If the disease is milder in the acute stage..." ?

The general trend of virus mutation is survival of fittest, but it cannot be used to predict how an individual strain of virus would mutate, since we won't have clues whether it's going.to stay or to kill pr what ir will do.

c933103 wrote:

art wrote:

Chemist wrote:

If the disease is less mild in the acute stage, but still produces substantial long term organ damage, that's still not good.

Any chance that omicron will not have that effect? Can it be expected that as the virus mutates it gradually becomes less damaging to organs? I don't have a clue.

PS Did you mean to say "If the disease is milder in the acute stage..." ?

The general trend of virus mutation is survival of fittest, but it cannot be used to predict how an individual strain of virus would mutate, since we won't have clues whether it's going.to stay or to kill pr what ir will do.

Ebola, West Nile Virus, and the flu of 1918-1920 all evolved from milder viruses to become more deadly:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 839167002/

We vaccinate for chicken pox because it used to kill people occasionally:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10915066/

There are two ways a virus becomes less deadly. I am of the opinion that the primary reason is it kills off the most susceptible.

With the crazy amount that Omicron mutated, it means we eventually get something which, in my opinion, will make the 1918-1920 flu seem mild.

Since vaccinations are reducing the severity, at least my translation of this link:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

People will eventually treat this like a cold, take some DayQuil and carry on. The unvaccinated/fragile will have a challenge. I'm not sure lockdowns can work this winter. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

art wrote:

Any chance that omicron will not have that effect? Can it be expected that as the virus mutates it gradually becomes less damaging to organs? I don't have a clue.

PS Did you mean to say "If the disease is milder in the acute stage..." ?

The general trend of virus mutation is survival of fittest, but it cannot be used to predict how an individual strain of virus would mutate, since we won't have clues whether it's going.to stay or to kill pr what ir will do.

Ebola, West Nile Virus, and the flu of 1918-1920 all evolved from milder viruses to become more deadly:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 839167002/

We vaccinate for chicken pox because it used to kill people occasionally:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10915066/

There are two ways a virus becomes less deadly. I am of the opinion that the primary reason is it kills off the most susceptible.

With the crazy amount that Omicron mutated, it means we eventually get something which, in my opinion, will make the 1918-1920 flu seem mild.

Since vaccinations are reducing the severity, at least my translation of this link:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

People will eventually treat this like a cold, take some DayQuil and carry on. The unvaccinated/fragile will have a challenge. I'm not sure lockdowns can work this winter. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber

Another alternative possibility I think of is that, since vaccine reduced the virus' severity, it might allow the virus to continue to mutate to become much more and more and more deadly before being penalized by the natural law of selection.

Also, as for the high number of mutation in the strain, I forgot where I read it but there were speculation that it might be a result of jumped to another animal before jumping back to human.

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/146499
Some local governments in Tokyo worries that, if only Moderna vaccines are available but no extra Pfizer supply, people might not want to get the booster dose, concerning about side effect of Moderna vaccine

c933103 wrote:

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/146499
Some local governments in Tokyo worries that, if only Moderna vaccines are available but no extra Pfizer supply, people might not want to get the booster dose, concerning about side effect of Moderna vaccine

Unfortunately Japanese people have an annoying habit of speaking Japanese so I don't know what the linked article says.

I just got Moderna vaxxed. Should I worry that x people per million will get some -itis or other or should I worry more that x times y people per million will get the same -itis if they become infected?

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

art wrote:

With the crazy amount that Omicron mutated, it means we eventually get something which, in my opinion, will make the 1918-1920 flu seem mild.

The Spanish Flu killed tens of millions, you really think the new variant will be just as deadly? Or did I misinterpret your post?

Please note that this is a News and Discussion thread, if you want to discuss your own vaccination and share your experience please do this in a separate thread which can be found here:

Covid19 Vaccine Experience Thread

c933103 wrote:

Another alternative possibility I think of is that, since vaccine reduced the virus' severity, it might allow the virus to continue to mutate to become much more and more and more deadly before being penalized by the natural law of selection.

That is absolutely not true, thats not how vaccines work:

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/are-leaky-vaccines-causing-the-new-covid-19-mutations

santi319 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Another alternative possibility I think of is that, since vaccine reduced the virus' severity, it might allow the virus to continue to mutate to become much more and more and more deadly before being penalized by the natural law of selection.

That is absolutely not true, thats not how vaccines work:

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/are-leaky-vaccines-causing-the-new-covid-19-mutations

Agreed that vaccines reduce mutations. We've known that before coronavirus hit:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/health/u ... index.html

Simple math:
1. Vaccines mutate by defective copying.
2. More vaccinated have no illness, so no chance to replicate.
3. Vaccinated are well proven to have less severe illness, which means less virus production which means fewer mutations.
4. Vaccinated are sick for less time that means fewer mutations.


Unfortunately, in my opinion, this has gone on so long it is endemic. This is going to be like measles and whooping cough. Do you recall the last lockdown for either? I cannot as it hasn't been required in my lifetime thanks to vaccines.

Yet in college, I carried two friends home from a fraturity party with obvious measles outbreaks (it happens fast, breakthrough infections). Later, a child gave my child a minor cough, which I caught. It tested as whooping cough. LoL. I was given some meds and told go to work tomorrow as you can assume everyone else is vaccinated.

That is where we are going once we stop overloading hospitals. In my opinion, viruses become more mild because they kill off those without good natural immunity. A shame on long haul symptoms (FWIW, my operation and new diet fixed all of my longhaul symptoms).

I feel for parents who cannot vaccinate younger children. Everyone else has made a decision. There is no way society tolerates continued lockdowns over a choice, in my opinion.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

There is no way society tolerates continued lockdowns over a choice, in my opinion.

Lightsaber

I think the term lockdown has become overly politically toxic.
Placing, people institutions, or areas into isolation, is a classic epidemiological control measure and should never be blanket ruled out, They can be highly effective when a highly transmissible disease outbreak occurs, to be used in order to contain the spread and give time to impliment the other disease control measures.

Much of the world, retains animal lockdown, as a first control step, in the event of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth disease.

Hopefully for covid, the necessity of national lockdowns, even city wide lockdowns, is now far far reduced. But school lockdowns, aged care facility lockdowns, should not be shied away from, if required, just because the term lockdown has become so politically toxic.

New Zealand has escaped so far with very little covid damage, because of very effective lockdowns, to contain, then reduce, and even eliminate transmission. Initially lockdowns were country wide, In delta, apart from just a few days, they were restricted to one city only, and that has now been removed.
Hopefully, any next time they have to be employed, any area will be much much more localised.

Toenga wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

There is no way society tolerates continued lockdowns over a choice, in my opinion.

Lightsaber

I think the term lockdown has become overly politically toxic.
Placing, people institutions, or areas into isolation, is a classic epidemiological control measure and should never be blanket ruled out, They can be highly effective when a highly transmissible disease outbreak occurs, to be used in order to contain the spread and give time to impliment the other disease control measures.



Much of the world, retains animal lockdown, as a first control step, in the event of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth disease.

Hopefully for covid, the necessity of national lockdowns, even city wide lockdowns, is now far far reduced. But school lockdowns, aged care facility lockdowns, should not be shied away from, if required, just because the term lockdown has become so politically toxic.

New Zealand has escaped so far with very little covid damage, because of very effective lockdowns, to contain, then reduce, and even eliminate transmission. Initially lockdowns were country wide, In delta, apart from just a few days, they were restricted to one city only, and that has now been removed.
Hopefully, any next time they have to be employed, any area will be much much more localised.

While I appreciate your inputs, people need normalcy.

Island nations have easier solutions. So they have more reserve to tolerate this longer.

When schools are closed, a parent must be home assisting with all the issues of remote learning. When a group is sent home from work, that means everyone is working mandatory weekends to catch up. (I am so glad in January my employer dismisses the unvaccinated to end that hassle.)

In US states, we have not had good enough case tracking for fine lockdowns. The attitude is really becoming, "why protect those who won't protect themselves."

The issue is ICUs are overflowing with Unvacs in many areas. e.g., 87% are unvacs in Michigan:
https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2021/12/02 ... -says/?amp

People want a normal life. There will be consequences unfortunately.

The most fragile were the first vaccinated. The fact such a preponderance of the hospital workload is unvaccinated despite a slight majority vaccinated (including the fragile), tells a tale. What I think doesn't matter, we aren't even yet into winter.

LA comic con was this weekend.

https://www.tixr.com/groups/comicconla/ ... 2020-19768

No concern...

We have less vaccinated in the USA than Germany. Oh boy ... I already posted in that thread I believe the USA is only a few weeks behind.

West Michigan hospitals are full:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/wes ... 09488.html

Massachusetts hospitals are stretched to capacity:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Upper New York State hospitals are overwhelmed:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/nyre ... y.amp.html

Mesa County is full, which is a bellwether for Western Colorado/Eastern Utah (as their only trama center is there):
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

While I'm happy New Zealand is doing well, the connected world isn't.

We need more vaccinations, including even younger child vaccinations.

Winter is coming
Lightsaber

c933103 wrote:

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/146499
Some local governments in Tokyo worries that, if only Moderna vaccines are available but no extra Pfizer supply, people might not want to get the booster dose, concerning about side effect of Moderna vaccine

If they are not young males doing athletics or female workers of the night using both amphetamines and BCPs, they have nothing to worry about.

In reply to lightsabre:
Medical interventions by way of vaccinations and the now rapidly, becoming available latest antiviral drugs, are alone, not silver bullets.
They are undoubtedly incredibly powerful, but there is still a place for classic infection control measures, including both isolating the infected, and the vulnerable. Lockdowns if you like.

You say, about Island nations having the ability to tolerate things for longer. But we haven't, these nations have not stood still. Once vaccines became available we have vaccinated extraordinarily quickly. Fiji The Cook Islands, New Zealand are all significantly more vaccinated then the US, in spite of that late availability of supply. Samoa, French Polynesia are not far behind.
New Zealand is now at 80% first dosed 75% second, so inside a month that second dosed will be north of 80% with first dosed even higher. This is against a ceiling of about 85% with current age restrictions on eligibility. We have the booster shot program well underway for those who are more then 6 months since their second shot.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... acker.html

Here in NZ, supplies of Pfizer pediatric vaccines for 5 to 11year olds have been secured for vaccination to start on this group before the end of next month. Again this is expected to be a rapid program. We have secured supplies of both the Moderno and yet to be approved Pfizer antiviral drugs. And yet our government will not rule out reimposing local lock downs if circumstances require it.
Australia is in a femarkably similar position except their Federal government has made a play on being past lockdowns whatever, a position not necessarily taken up by their state governments of both political persuasions.

art wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/146499
Some local governments in Tokyo worries that, if only Moderna vaccines are available but no extra Pfizer supply, people might not want to get the booster dose, concerning about side effect of Moderna vaccine

Unfortunately Japanese people have an annoying habit of speaking Japanese so I don't know what the linked article says.

I just got Moderna vaxxed. Should I worry that x people per million will get some -itis or other or should I worry more that x times y people per million will get the same -itis if they become infected?

Aaron747 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/146499
Some local governments in Tokyo worries that, if only Moderna vaccines are available but no extra Pfizer supply, people might not want to get the booster dose, concerning about side effect of Moderna vaccine

If they are not young males doing athletics or female workers of the night using both amphetamines and BCPs, they have nothing to worry about.

The problem here isn't how much risk individuals get, but that as the citizens collectively as a whole have mostly opted for Pfizer vaccines instead of Moderna for the first two doses, the worry is that shortage of Pfizer supply as Japan plan to start booster vaccination early with its remaining Moderna shots, could result in low uptake among citizens who prefer Pfizer, as have been noted in the link

c933103 wrote:

art wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/146499
Some local governments in Tokyo worries that, if only Moderna vaccines are available but no extra Pfizer supply, people might not want to get the booster dose, concerning about side effect of Moderna vaccine

Unfortunately Japanese people have an annoying habit of speaking Japanese so I don't know what the linked article says.

I just got Moderna vaxxed. Should I worry that x people per million will get some -itis or other or should I worry more that x times y people per million will get the same -itis if they become infected?

Aaron747 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/146499
Some local governments in Tokyo worries that, if only Moderna vaccines are available but no extra Pfizer supply, people might not want to get the booster dose, concerning about side effect of Moderna vaccine

If they are not young males doing athletics or female workers of the night using both amphetamines and BCPs, they have nothing to worry about.

The problem here isn't how much risk individuals get, but that as the citizens collectively as a whole have mostly opted for Pfizer vaccines instead of Moderna for the first two doses, the worry is that shortage of Pfizer supply as Japan plan to start booster vaccination early with its remaining Moderna shots, could result in low uptake among citizens who prefer Pfizer, as have been noted in the link

Right, but the concerns about reactions are basically unfounded except for the risk groups I mentioned. As the article said, the local governments need to put their thinking hats on and communicate clearly to citizens that cross-vaccination is safe, practical, and effective.

Here in Spain the 13-100+ population is 80% vaccinated with the green light for under 13 to start vaccinating 15-dec.

Our cases per 100k continue to rise, currently at 290 (up from 55 during previous months). The under 13 population has the highest case per 100k, about 500 currently so it will be interesting to see how that the vaccinating helps. I was hoping to see low rates but it looks like it will continue to rise.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2021 ... 00000.html

Data we need

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/07/heal ... ccine.html
>Overall, their[12 people with Pfizer vaccines, 6 have been infected before vaccination, 6 haven't] antibodies’ potency against Omicron dropped dramatically, to about one-fortieth[1/40] of the level seen when tested with an earlier version of the virus. That low level of antibodies may not protect against breakthrough Omicron infections.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-relea ... on-variant
>Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) today announced results from an initial laboratory study demonstrating that serum antibodies induced by the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) neutralize the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant after three doses.

-----

After reading Pfizer's press release further into details, I have a bit suspicion on their claim, "[2-dose vaccinated does exhibit] more than a 25-fold reduction in neutralization titers against the Omicron" and then "a booster with the current COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech increases the antibody titers by 25-fold" the number just match too nicely. Are they trying to promote their current vaccine and evade when it's still somehow working, so that they can avoid investing additional money into developing new booster for new variant types?

Toenga wrote:

In reply to lightsabre:
Medical interventions by way of vaccinations and the now rapidly, becoming available latest antiviral drugs, are alone, not silver bullets.
They are undoubtedly incredibly powerful, but there is still a place for classic infection control measures, including both isolating the infected, and the vulnerable. Lockdowns if you like.

I 100% agree the Swiss Cheese model works. I am an advocate of layered defenses. I wear a mask and maintain a reduced social bubble for social distancing.

The population in general isn't doing so.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technolo ... NewsSearch
Early data suggests the variant is able to evade some of the protection provided by two doses of the vaccine and a third dose, or booster, of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine restores high levels of protection, the two biopharmaceutical companies said.


I'm great at exponential math and see how there was a multi-week delay in South Africa hospitalizations before they went exponential:
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/271 ... n-patients
"Unfortunately, we're seeing a more than doubling of hospital admissions each day," said Ian Sanne, an infectious diseases specialist who serves on South Africa's COVID-19 presidential advisory committee.

So what to do? Tell people to follow rules only the now boosted group will follow? I'll wear masks. I social distance, but when a group of lovely boosted women invites one to dance, one goes dancing this weekend. My kids go out and do sports masked, but only with other vaccinated children.

Move the definition of vaccinated to 3 jabs now, 4 when a variant booster is available and live life sensibly, but time to live life again. Lockdown the at risk like in Germany and Austria. That seems to be working.

Lightsaber

c933103 wrote:

After reading Pfizer's press release further into details, I have a bit suspicion on their claim, "[2-dose vaccinated does exhibit] more than a 25-fold reduction in neutralization titers against the Omicron" and then "a booster with the current COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech increases the antibody titers by 25-fold" the number just match too nicely. Are they trying to promote their current vaccine and evade when it's still somehow working, so that they can avoid investing additional money into developing new booster for new variant types?

Pfizer has developed and is testing variant boosters.

https://www.pfizer.com/science/coronavi ... g-variants

There is a cost of, by my estimate, losing 6 weeks of production switching the recipe. The enemy of better is good enough and the FDA required this test. If the variant booster is much better, which I suspect it will be, we won't find out for six weeks by my estimate. We're about a hundred days out from the first people receiving the variant booster too. So boost now and get the variant booster later.

My math says Omicron will be really bad in the USA starting December 20th to December 30th (that is the start day, not a mere ten day problem).

If the boosters were no good, stop boosting and send the doses to Africa. But as they are preliminarily effective, boost as many as possible!

Lightsaber

"[2-dose vaccinated does exhibit] more than a 25-fold reduction in neutralization titers against the Omicron"

When I read longer articles about this I gathered that what was measured was one laboratory metric. The protection is not necessarily closely related to that metric. Anyway, I am 'standing by' for more explanations, and for more clinical results. Meantime, boosted, masked indoors except with a very limited number of vaccinated people, and am not indoors with any crowds even when masked.

c933103 wrote:

art wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/146499
Some local governments in Tokyo worries that, if only Moderna vaccines are available but no extra Pfizer supply, people might not want to get the booster dose, concerning about side effect of Moderna vaccine

Unfortunately Japanese people have an annoying habit of speaking Japanese so I don't know what the linked article says.

I just got Moderna vaxxed. Should I worry that x people per million will get some -itis or other or should I worry more that x times y people per million will get the same -itis if they become infected?

Aaron747 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/146499
Some local governments in Tokyo worries that, if only Moderna vaccines are available but no extra Pfizer supply, people might not want to get the booster dose, concerning about side effect of Moderna vaccine

If they are not young males doing athletics or female workers of the night using both amphetamines and BCPs, they have nothing to worry about.

The problem here isn't how much risk individuals get, but that as the citizens collectively as a whole have mostly opted for Pfizer vaccines instead of Moderna for the first two doses, the worry is that shortage of Pfizer supply as Japan plan to start booster vaccination early with its remaining Moderna shots, could result in low uptake among citizens who prefer Pfizer, as have been noted in the link

People are still insisting the on the same initial vaccine that they got for the first two doses? I thought we were past this. Get what you are offered if its approved in your country. Ideally the same type if possible but don't wait if you can get one.

I got Pfizer first and Moderna 7 weeks later as did most Canadians. Some got AZ first and an mRNA second with a longer interval between doses.

While we are on a bit of an uptick I think this helped Canada hold off the Delta wave (with the exceptions of Alberta and Saskatchewan, they dropped all restrictions in July and if backfired) as the immune response is still robust even with a longer interval between doses .

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01359-3

https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-car ... ence-shows

mad99 wrote:

Here in Spain the 13-100+ population is 80% vaccinated with the green light for under 13 to start vaccinating 15-dec.

Our cases per 100k continue to rise, currently at 290 (up from 55 during previous months). The under 13 population has the highest case per 100k, about 500 currently so it will be interesting to see how that the vaccinating helps. I was hoping to see low rates but it looks like it will continue to rise.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2021 ... 00000.html

The vaccine doesn't prevent infection, it never did. I would argue that very few of them actually prevent an infection but they do reduce and prevent disease.

What matters is how sick the vaccinated are getting and do they require acute care. Even a typical hospital admission doesn't mean much as you can go to the hospital for a cough that happens to be linked to Covid and the hospital isn't going to turn you away in this sense and it is likely to resolve naturally if vaccinated.

Simply having the sniffles or cold and flu like symptoms or even nothing is what is going to be the end result. if this wasn't a pandemic would you get tested for an illness with a cold? The answer probably not. Certain people with co-morbidities might still get very sick and die even if vaccinated and that is an unfortunate fact of life. Governments needs to be very transparent about this and give full breakdowns of who is getting sick

Its also a seasonal virus as people move from outside to inside cases are naturally going to go up.

Looks like probable omicron displacement of delta is going exponential in England. Chart half way down linked page shows very steep increase in probable omicron v delta.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518

I hope it produces less severe disease than delta in unvaccinated/vaccinated people. I suppose data will become available in the very near future.

Uh oh. Subvariant of Omicron found, but doesn't distinguish separately from Delta on PCR. Also appears to infect the vaccinated quite readily. Early indications of mild symptoms.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-new-version-of-the-covid-omicron-variant-ba2-is-a-sneaky-little-bastard

art wrote:

Looks like probable omicron displacement of delta is going exponential in England. Chart half way down linked page shows very steep increase in probable omicron v delta.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518

I hope it produces less severe disease than delta in unvaccinated/vaccinated people. I suppose data will become available in the very near future.

Reminder that graph is representing an increase from 0% to 1%.
While 1% local case is indeed significant if it represent a large number of samples, I wouldn't call it a very steep increase yet...?

c933103 wrote:

art wrote:

Looks like probable omicron displacement of delta is going exponential in England. Chart half way down linked page shows very steep increase in probable omicron v delta.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518

I hope it produces less severe disease than delta in unvaccinated/vaccinated people. I suppose data will become available in the very near future.

Reminder that graph is representing an increase from 0% to 1%.
While 1% local case is indeed significant if it represent a large number of samples, I wouldn't call it a very steep increase yet...?

The South Africa data clearly shows a very rapid displacement. With the level of testing, sequencing and a unified health system in the UK, I am very confident that we will have a very good picture of whether Omicron is indeed less lethal than the Wuhan-Original or Delta pretty soon.

c933103 wrote:

art wrote:

Looks like probable omicron displacement of delta is going exponential in England. Chart half way down linked page shows very steep increase in probable omicron v delta.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518

I hope it produces less severe disease than delta in unvaccinated/vaccinated people. I suppose data will become available in the very near future.

Reminder that graph is representing an increase from 0% to 1%.
While 1% local case is indeed significant if it represent a large number of samples, I wouldn't call it a very steep increase yet...?

I don't have access to the data on which the chart is based but from what I see probable omicron rose from 0.23% of infections to around 0.9% in around 7 days. My 'back of an envelope' extrapolation predicts probable omicron proportion of all COVID-19 infections in England as follows:

+7 days
3.5%
+14 days
13.7%
+21 days
53.9%
<+28 days
100%

art wrote:

c933103 wrote:

art wrote:

Looks like probable omicron displacement of delta is going exponential in England. Chart half way down linked page shows very steep increase in probable omicron v delta.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518

I hope it produces less severe disease than delta in unvaccinated/vaccinated people. I suppose data will become available in the very near future.

Reminder that graph is representing an increase from 0% to 1%.
While 1% local case is indeed significant if it represent a large number of samples, I wouldn't call it a very steep increase yet...?

I don't have access to the data on which the chart is based but from what I see probable omicron rose from 0.23% of infections to around 0.9% in around 7 days. My 'back of an envelope' extrapolation predicts probable omicron proportion of all COVID-19 infections in England as follows:

+7 days
3.5%
+14 days
13.7%
+21 days
53.9%
<+28 days
100%

I agree with your curve, I just believe England is perhaps 7 days behind your assumed start point.

This is going to infinity and beyond. There is still time for individuals to protect themselves, but not enough time for the society.

lightsaber wrote:

art wrote:

I don't have access to the data on which the chart is based but from what I see probable omicron rose from 0.23% of infections to around 0.9% in around 7 days. My 'back of an envelope' extrapolation predicts probable omicron proportion of all COVID-19 infections in England as follows:

+7 days
3.5%
+14 days
13.7%
+21 days
53.9%
<+28 days
100%

I agree with your curve, I just believe England is perhaps 7 days behind your assumed start point.

This is going to infinity and beyond. There is still time for individuals to protect themselves, but not enough time for the society.

Too late for 3rd doses to have an effect, I fear. Just heard on BBC news* that omicron is predicted to become the dominant strain (in UK I presume, rather than just England) sometime next week. Sounds like this strain is a fast mover. We should be saying bye bye to delta here in the very near future. In Scotland the First Minister is talking of a 'tsunami' of infections*.

*I do not know what their sources are

Masks on again, all!

A friendly reminder DO NOT post any personal views on an individuals decision to get vaccinated in this thread. Thanks.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-v ... 1639054806
There are now news concerning "Original Antigenic Sin", which say even if someone is given an Omicron-specific booster, the body might simply react with the antibody produced against the original antigen, and thus making the Omicron-specific booster just as effective as a booster dose of original vaccine.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20211210_17/
South Korea to lower interval for booster dose to 3 months

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/ ... up-to-4000
Austria plan to fine people refusing coronavirus vaccine 3600 Euro every 3 months.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59615005

a third booster prevents around 75% of people getting any Covid symptoms.

Good, not great news. To myself, this means the vaccines are now a 3 dose course.

With SII with 500 million doses on hand and looking to cut production by 125 million doses, there is supply, not demand:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 1.html/amp

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59615005

a third booster prevents around 75% of people getting any Covid symptoms.

Good, not great news. To myself, this means the vaccines are now a 3 dose course.

Lightsaber

I do not think that vaccination can do much to mitigate the omicron problem in the short term. Even if 3rd doses were administered to 1% of the population a day (double the current rate), it would take more than a month to get all currently 2 dosed people up to 3 doses. Then some time is needed for the vaccine to have its effect.

Scientists have been able to track their Omicron quarry by the unusual set of footprints it leaves behind in Covid tests. It's known as S-gene dropout and in late-November only 0.1% of test results had this footprint. It's now in excess of 5%

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59580290

Sure, increase vaccination rate but IMO the best immediate measure to take for <3 jab people is to hide from it - mask up, reduce contact with others.