US Energy Supply and Costs - 2022

GalaxyFlyer · Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:46 pm

casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Gasoline price depends on crude plus refining costs, variations among countries reflect taxes or subsidies. The price of gasoline in the US today (and most other locations) is about $2.41US. Your government is taking the difference.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php

The government isn't taking the difference. They are putting it into the roads and infrastructure so you can use the Gas you purchases.

Excuse me, taxes go to the government, tax revenue like all money is fungible. Yes, some goes to roads, but certainly not 100% of fuel taxes result in road improvements. About 10% goes to mass transit, often more, which means most drivers receive no benefit. Lots of states divert fuel taxes to other uses. On my state only 75% goes to roads.

https://reason.org/policy-brief/how-muc ... rom-roads/

casinterest · Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:49 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Gasoline price depends on crude plus refining costs, variations among countries reflect taxes or subsidies. The price of gasoline in the US today (and most other locations) is about $2.41US. Your government is taking the difference.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php

The government isn't taking the difference. They are putting it into the roads and infrastructure so you can use the Gas you purchases.

Excuse me, taxes go to the government, tax revenue like all money is fungible. Yes, some goes to roads, but certainly not 100% of fuel taxes result in road improvements. About 10% goes to mass transit, often more, which means most drivers receive no benefit. Lots of states divert fuel taxes to other uses. On my state only 75% goes to roads.

https://reason.org/policy-brief/how-muc ... rom-roads/

Drivers do receive the benefit of Mass Transit. It keeps more cars off of the road, especially in places with limited roads. 75%-90% return is better than most mark ups on services and good we pay for.

par13del · Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:17 pm

casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:

The government isn't taking the difference. They are putting it into the roads and infrastructure so you can use the Gas you purchases.

Excuse me, taxes go to the government, tax revenue like all money is fungible. Yes, some goes to roads, but certainly not 100% of fuel taxes result in road improvements. About 10% goes to mass transit, often more, which means most drivers receive no benefit. Lots of states divert fuel taxes to other uses. On my state only 75% goes to roads.

https://reason.org/policy-brief/how-muc ... rom-roads/

Drivers do receive the benefit of Mass Transit. It keeps more cars off of the road, especially in places with limited roads. 75%-90% return is better than most mark ups on services and good we pay for.

...and when mass transit becomes a loss making enterprise with a bottomless pit that is taxes???? Even in the USA when you use federal funds for mass transit, it is still tax payers funds.
Only point I am making is that it is easy to state the taxes are going back into the infrastructure, in most nations its a consolidated fund which is used for many things.
The diesel initiative is another example, taxes were used to encourage more diesel vehicles, now that more information is available, taxes will once again be used to get diesel off the road.

casinterest · Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:20 pm

par13del wrote:
casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Excuse me, taxes go to the government, tax revenue like all money is fungible. Yes, some goes to roads, but certainly not 100% of fuel taxes result in road improvements. About 10% goes to mass transit, often more, which means most drivers receive no benefit. Lots of states divert fuel taxes to other uses. On my state only 75% goes to roads.

https://reason.org/policy-brief/how-muc ... rom-roads/

Drivers do receive the benefit of Mass Transit. It keeps more cars off of the road, especially in places with limited roads. 75%-90% return is better than most mark ups on services and good we pay for.

...and when mass transit becomes a loss making enterprise with a bottomless pit that is taxes???? Even in the USA when you use federal funds for mass transit, it is still tax payers funds.
Only point I am making is that it is easy to state the taxes are going back into the infrastructure, in most nations its a consolidated fund which is used for many things.
The diesel initiative is another example, taxes were used to encourage more diesel vehicles, now that more information is available, taxes will once again be used to get diesel off the road.

That is why you have open government and elections with regard to where the money goes and how it is spent. When the Money is not spent where it needs to go, officials need to be changed.

It is a system that requires lots of work. Mass Transit does and can work in many places. Sometimes the barriers are the lower taxes everyone expects to just lay roads over the land. Cities don't have that kind of land available.

GalaxyFlyer · Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:40 pm

casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:

The government isn't taking the difference. They are putting it into the roads and infrastructure so you can use the Gas you purchases.

Excuse me, taxes go to the government, tax revenue like all money is fungible. Yes, some goes to roads, but certainly not 100% of fuel taxes result in road improvements. About 10% goes to mass transit, often more, which means most drivers receive no benefit. Lots of states divert fuel taxes to other uses. On my state only 75% goes to roads.

https://reason.org/policy-brief/how-muc ... rom-roads/

Drivers do receive the benefit of Mass Transit. It keeps more cars off of the road, especially in places with limited roads. 75%-90% return is better than most mark ups on services and good we pay for.

It’d be very nice, if it were true. Boston is basically the only mass transit system in my state, so fat lot of good it does west of 128/95, but then again nobody in the state house gives a fig about anyone outside 128. Mass Pike in central and western Massachusetts is backed up horribly year long, so I don’t see how the ,only going to the T benefits anyone on the Pike. Then look at New York State, NYC is basically the only area with true mass transit and nobody outside of it gets much benefit. Ridership in bus systems is abysmal and would never pay for its operation. Same in Illinois. Same in CT, which has only poorly ridden bus systems and they wasted two lanes of traffic to create an unused HOV lane north of Hartford.

No, mass transit means ZERO, BEANS, BUPKIS to anyone outside the cities, why are we finding with gas taxes?

casinterest · Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:46 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Excuse me, taxes go to the government, tax revenue like all money is fungible. Yes, some goes to roads, but certainly not 100% of fuel taxes result in road improvements. About 10% goes to mass transit, often more, which means most drivers receive no benefit. Lots of states divert fuel taxes to other uses. On my state only 75% goes to roads.

https://reason.org/policy-brief/how-muc ... rom-roads/

Drivers do receive the benefit of Mass Transit. It keeps more cars off of the road, especially in places with limited roads. 75%-90% return is better than most mark ups on services and good we pay for.

It’d be very nice, if it were true. Boston is basically the only mass transit system in my state, so fat lot of good it does west of 128/95, but then again nobody in the state house gives a fig about anyone outside 128. Mass Pike in central and western Massachusetts is backed up horribly year long, so I don’t see how the ,only going to the T benefits anyone on the Pike. Then look at New York State, NYC is basically the only area with true mass transit and nobody outside of it gets much benefit. Ridership in bus systems is abysmal and would never pay for its operation. Same in Illinois. Same in CT, which has only poorly ridden bus systems and they wasted two lanes of traffic to create an unused HOV lane north of Hartford.

No, mass transit means ZERO, BEANS, BUPKIS to anyone outside the cities, why are we finding with gas taxes?

Because most of the gas taxes come from those living and working in the big cities. So is 10% that much?

Boston Metro has 60-70% of Ma residents.
NYC Metro has 35-45% of NY resdients.

.

Aesma · Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:52 pm

And the other taxe income too, of course.

MohawkWeekend · Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:07 pm

Actually GalaxyFlyer has a point. The ones who drive the most (those outside the areas served by transit) pay more in gas taxes than for example someone in Chicago, Boston or NYC who doesn't even own a car and uses transit instead.

Might be cheaper to just subsidize Uber rides. In EV's of course!

casinterest · Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:11 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Actually GalaxyFlyer has a point. The ones who drive the most (those outside the areas served by transit) pay more in gas taxes than for example someone in Chicago, Boston or NYC who doesn't even own a car and uses transit instead.

Might be cheaper to just subsidize Uber rides. In EV's of course!

But they pay the higher property taxes and income taxes for the states usually as well in the urban areas. And do not discount all the driving done in and around Boston, Chicago, and NYC. Not everyone goes into downtown.

Aaron747 · Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:04 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Excuse me, taxes go to the government, tax revenue like all money is fungible. Yes, some goes to roads, but certainly not 100% of fuel taxes result in road improvements. About 10% goes to mass transit, often more, which means most drivers receive no benefit. Lots of states divert fuel taxes to other uses. On my state only 75% goes to roads.

https://reason.org/policy-brief/how-muc ... rom-roads/

Drivers do receive the benefit of Mass Transit. It keeps more cars off of the road, especially in places with limited roads. 75%-90% return is better than most mark ups on services and good we pay for.

It’d be very nice, if it were true. Boston is basically the only mass transit system in my state, so fat lot of good it does west of 128/95, but then again nobody in the state house gives a fig about anyone outside 128. Mass Pike in central and western Massachusetts is backed up horribly year long, so I don’t see how the ,only going to the T benefits anyone on the Pike. Then look at New York State, NYC is basically the only area with true mass transit and nobody outside of it gets much benefit. Ridership in bus systems is abysmal and would never pay for its operation. Same in Illinois. Same in CT, which has only poorly ridden bus systems and they wasted two lanes of traffic to create an unused HOV lane north of Hartford.

No, mass transit means ZERO, BEANS, BUPKIS to anyone outside the cities, why are we finding with gas taxes?

This briefing doc from BRA suggests Boston gets the overall short end of the stick in MA - reaps the least benefit vs tax revenue generated. And cannot avail itself of property taxes because nearly half of city land is government and tax exempt.

http://www.bostonplans.org/getattachmen ... fcddd62c0/

As for NY state, the lion’s share of tax revenue comes from the four downstate counties in/near NYC. But obviously most of the driving and road maintenance is done upstate.

MohawkWeekend · Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:44 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Drivers do receive the benefit of Mass Transit. It keeps more cars off of the road, especially in places with limited roads. 75%-90% return is better than most mark ups on services and good we pay for.

It’d be very nice, if it were true. Boston is basically the only mass transit system in my state, so fat lot of good it does west of 128/95, but then again nobody in the state house gives a fig about anyone outside 128. Mass Pike in central and western Massachusetts is backed up horribly year long, so I don’t see how the ,only going to the T benefits anyone on the Pike. Then look at New York State, NYC is basically the only area with true mass transit and nobody outside of it gets much benefit. Ridership in bus systems is abysmal and would never pay for its operation. Same in Illinois. Same in CT, which has only poorly ridden bus systems and they wasted two lanes of traffic to create an unused HOV lane north of Hartford.

No, mass transit means ZERO, BEANS, BUPKIS to anyone outside the cities, why are we finding with gas taxes?

This briefing doc from BRA suggests Boston gets the overall short end of the stick in MA - reaps the least benefit vs tax revenue generated. And cannot avail itself of property taxes because nearly half of city land is government and tax exempt.

http://www.bostonplans.org/getattachmen ... fcddd62c0/

As for NY state, the lion’s share of tax revenue comes from the four downstate counties in/near NYC. But obviously most of the driving and road maintenance is done upstate.

I think we a confusing gasoline (and for that matter license plate fee's) for overall tax burden.

Can anyone explain why jet fuel has a Federal Excise Tax of 4.4 cents per gallon and gasoline is 18.3 CPG and diesel is 23.3 cents per gallon?

Aaron747 · Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:47 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

It’d be very nice, if it were true. Boston is basically the only mass transit system in my state, so fat lot of good it does west of 128/95, but then again nobody in the state house gives a fig about anyone outside 128. Mass Pike in central and western Massachusetts is backed up horribly year long, so I don’t see how the ,only going to the T benefits anyone on the Pike. Then look at New York State, NYC is basically the only area with true mass transit and nobody outside of it gets much benefit. Ridership in bus systems is abysmal and would never pay for its operation. Same in Illinois. Same in CT, which has only poorly ridden bus systems and they wasted two lanes of traffic to create an unused HOV lane north of Hartford.

No, mass transit means ZERO, BEANS, BUPKIS to anyone outside the cities, why are we finding with gas taxes?

This briefing doc from BRA suggests Boston gets the overall short end of the stick in MA - reaps the least benefit vs tax revenue generated. And cannot avail itself of property taxes because nearly half of city land is government and tax exempt.

http://www.bostonplans.org/getattachmen ... fcddd62c0/

As for NY state, the lion’s share of tax revenue comes from the four downstate counties in/near NYC. But obviously most of the driving and road maintenance is done upstate.

I think we a confusing gasoline (and for that matter license plate fee's) for overall tax burden.

Can anyone explain why jet fuel has a Federal Excise Tax of 4.4 cents per gallon and gasoline is 18.3 CPG and diesel is 23.3 cents per gallon?

No confusion, just countering GF's point that gas tax contributions to mass transit spending in the city are somehow unjustified.

GalaxyFlyer · Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:06 am

Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Drivers do receive the benefit of Mass Transit. It keeps more cars off of the road, especially in places with limited roads. 75%-90% return is better than most mark ups on services and good we pay for.

It’d be very nice, if it were true. Boston is basically the only mass transit system in my state, so fat lot of good it does west of 128/95, but then again nobody in the state house gives a fig about anyone outside 128. Mass Pike in central and western Massachusetts is backed up horribly year long, so I don’t see how the ,only going to the T benefits anyone on the Pike. Then look at New York State, NYC is basically the only area with true mass transit and nobody outside of it gets much benefit. Ridership in bus systems is abysmal and would never pay for its operation. Same in Illinois. Same in CT, which has only poorly ridden bus systems and they wasted two lanes of traffic to create an unused HOV lane north of Hartford.

No, mass transit means ZERO, BEANS, BUPKIS to anyone outside the cities, why are we finding with gas taxes?

This briefing doc from BRA suggests Boston gets the overall short end of the stick in MA - reaps the least benefit vs tax revenue generated. And cannot avail itself of property taxes because nearly half of city land is government and tax exempt.

http://www.bostonplans.org/getattachmen ... fcddd62c0/

As for NY state, the lion’s share of tax revenue comes from the four downstate counties in/near NYC. But obviously most of the driving and road maintenance is done upstate.

We’re speaking of gas tax and where it goes. In my state 24% is diverted from road maintenance and spent in other non-road spending. Not an overall view on state spending. That said, we a COVID lottery, one money winner per week, one scholarship each of five weeks. Guess what-9 out of 10 winners were inside 495. A governor visit west of 495 seems occur every election year and the rest of time, it’s crickets.

MohawkWeekend · Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:09 am

Was watching WH Press Secretary handling questions on energy prices. Seems Plan A, B and C is to keep asking the Saudi's to produce more. Didn't show any questions being asked on the XL pipeline or more drilling in the US. Nope not in the plan. Even though airlines are putting more aircraft back into service, Americans quit buying fuel efficient cars, are buying record numbers of motorboat/RV/motorcycle'ATV/Quad runner. The talking head on the finacial TV show then touted saving fuel by lowering your speed by 10 mph. I want to cry.

Not even a plan to change out the nation's street lights with LED's. Now how tough would that be?

Every time energy prices rise like this, we have a recession

Aaron747 · Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:32 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Was watching WH Press Secretary handling questions on energy prices. Seems Plan A, B and C is to keep asking the Saudi's to produce more. Didn't show any questions being asked on the XL pipeline or more drilling in the US. Nope not in the plan. Even though airlines are putting more aircraft back into service, Americans quit buying fuel efficient cars, are buying record numbers of motorboat/RV/motorcycle'ATV/Quad runner. The talking head on the finacial TV show then touted saving fuel by lowering your speed by 10 mph. I want to cry.

Not even a plan to change out the nation's street lights with LED's. Now how tough would that be?

Every time energy prices rise like this, we have a recession

KSA is the largest producer we can ask - the other is Russia and we obviously can't ask/won't deal. How would starting work on Keystone Phase II or opening a big chunk of Alaska to future drilling help prices now? Isn't that what you have been on about?

GalaxyFlyer · Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:59 am

There’s tons of land in the US that could open to fracking if the price stays about $80 a bbl. NYS for one that’s off limits. It’s too late to bend the price curve, however. High and higher prices are baked in the next two years, not astronomical, but $80 to $100.

MohawkWeekend · Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:09 pm

We have an Administration that refuses to use taxes to reduce consumption. Their plan is to start choking off new supply in the US, rely heavily on OPEC as a bridge and hope that people will get more efficient stuff if the only the Govt gives them enough subsidy. They are scared witless of high gas prices
Their plan might have worked if we didn't allow the export of fossil fuels but we do. Shortages in the rest of the world will set the price for our oil and natural gas. We've given pricing control back to OPEC and the Russians.

frmrCapCadet · Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:22 pm

We have an Administration that refuses to use taxes to reduce consumption

Not exactly, it is the whole political system, the electorate, and the fossil fuel industry. The US is unable to raise the gas tax high enough to maintain and build the adjustments to the current system.

MohawkWeekend · Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:23 pm

Well maybe it is (and the LA Times is no Fox News) -

Editorial: President Biden is wrong: The federal government should absolutely raise the gas tax
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2 ... astructure

Biden knows that raising the gas tax will cause him to lose Congress. Look what it's done in France. American's believe cheap gas is a birth right.

GalaxyFlyer · Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:37 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Well maybe it is (and the LA Times is no Fox News) -

Editorial: President Biden is wrong: The federal government should absolutely raise the gas tax
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2 ... astructure

Biden knows that raising the gas tax will cause him to lose Congress. Look what it's done in France. American's believe cheap gas is a birth right.

Oil, hence refined products, are globally traded commodities and trade in very narrow price range. Taxes are the variable. Americans don’t think cheap gas is a birthright because it’s the same price most everywhere. They think cheap government is a birthright or, at least, are unwilling to fund government they gas taxes. Separate the commodity from the taxes applied. Which is why I like seeing sales or VAT as an add-on, not included in the posted price.

casinterest · Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:41 pm

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ian-region

With private fleets running hot, production from the Permian Basin will likely reach its pre-pandemic record high of 4.9 million barrels a day as soon as this month and will continue climbing steadily in 2022, Rystad Energy forecasts. The Permian is a particularly attractive place to ramp up production because of its low breakeven costs and high rates of productivity.

The production is increasing.

MohawkWeekend · Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:31 pm

That is a good development. The US is still 1.8 million barrels a day less than peak production levels hit a few years ago.

Just saw that the President arranged for round the clock operations at the Port of Los Angeles to clear supply chain issues. Imagine all that extra diesel for cranes, trains, trucks, tugs, ships maneuvering belching smoke every time the throttle is moved (been there), bunker barges, crew launches etc. - all so Grinch doesn't steal Christmas.

The Hell with carbon I say! And of course the air angelenos breath too. Might not matter with firestorms breaking out again. But it will pressure distillate prices on the West Coast

Aesma · Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:41 pm

Aren't cranes electric ?

MohawkWeekend wrote:
airlines are putting more aircraft back into service, Americans quit buying fuel efficient cars, are buying record numbers of motorboat/RV/motorcycle'ATV/Quad runner.

Then obviously gas is too cheap.

MohawkWeekend · Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:03 am

Yes fuel is too cheap but the US politicians looked across the Atlantic and saw what happened to French politicians and said no way to even indexing fuel taxes to inflation

Apparently only a fraction of the cranes in LA/LB are electric. Most are diesel. Seems like a easy fix but it will take years to implement.
Some ships turn off all their engines and rely on shore power. But not all and ships engines are not the cleanest
If you've seen the pictures of the flotilla of vessels waiting to unload it looks like Normandy in 1944, Giving money away to people (IRS) and the the FED keeping interest rates low has unleashed a demand for consumer goods which is unprecedented. And most are from the Far East. They have 16000 semi trucks shuttling containers inside the Port alone.

Here is a good article "Huge backup of ships bringing more pollution to LA, Long Beach-area port communities"
https://www.dailybreeze.com/2021/09/24/ ... mmunities/

MohawkWeekend · Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:05 pm

"Activists Try To Occupy Interior Department In Protest Against Fossil Fuels"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... Fuels.html
Sounds like mini January 6th, different building. So much for peaceful protests.
Excerpt - "Security personnel at the building sustained “multiple injuries” and one officer was taken to hospital, agency spokeswoman Melissa Schwartz told the Post.
The police made multiple arrests during the sit-in and the clashes, the Associated Press reported."

So some folks want no fossil fuels and the sooner the better. Wonder if anyone told the airlines?

In the meantime, oil prices continue the march higher - West Texas is up a little more than 1% today.

dc10lover · Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:07 pm

Funny gasoline demand rises yet traffic is nothing compared to before the Covid19 virus came out.

GalaxyFlyer · Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:37 pm

dc10lover wrote:
Funny gasoline demand rises yet traffic is nothing compared to before the Covid19 virus came out.

Not where I am—back to pre-COVID in the Northeast.

MohawkWeekend · Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:21 pm

Generalization - all is see are new trucks, SUV's, esp black Tahoes being driven by young women with no one else in the vehicle. Even though they are improved mpg from the beasts of the past, they are still hogs.

Remember after 73 oil shock you couldn't give away a fullsize car. Now - no one seems to care.

GalaxyFlyer · Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:37 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Generalization - all is see are new trucks, SUV's, esp black Tahoes being driven by young women with no one else in the vehicle. Even though they are improved mpg from the beasts of the past, they are still hogs.

Remember after 73 oil shock you couldn't give away a fullsize car. Now - no one seems to care.

Might be because, we’ve become richer in those 48 years.

MohawkWeekend · Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:06 pm

And we were risking it if we drove 5 miles per hour over 55. Few did.
65 years old now and still drive 5 miles over posted limit. And almost get blown off the road. Can't change fuel consumption curve - weight and speed still matter.

GalaxyFlyer · Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:12 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
And we were risking it if we drove 5 miles per hour over 55. Few did.
65 years old now and still drive 5 miles over posted limit. And almost get blown off the road. Can't change fuel consumption curve - weight and speed still matter.

Shoot no, lots of us ran well over the double nickel. I was passed doing 75 one night in Nebraska—by a Peterbilt. Ran a bit over 80 today on I-90 and was passed more than passing.

The Gurney/Yates Ferrari in the 2nd Cannonball run boasted they never exceeded 175 mph. They knew that because an AZ trooper pulled them over but couldn’t prove their speed. So, ole Dan wanted to find out what a Daytona could do—stopped accelerating at 172 on I-10.

Aaron747 · Sat Oct 16, 2021 1:01 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
And we were risking it if we drove 5 miles per hour over 55. Few did.
65 years old now and still drive 5 miles over posted limit. And almost get blown off the road. Can't change fuel consumption curve - weight and speed still matter.

Shoot no, lots of us ran well over the double nickel. I was passed doing 75 one night in Nebraska—by a Peterbilt. Ran a bit over 80 today on I-90 and was passed more than passing.

The Gurney/Yates Ferrari in the 2nd Cannonball run boasted they never exceeded 175 mph. They knew that because an AZ trooper pulled them over but couldn’t prove their speed. So, ole Dan wanted to find out what a Daytona could do—stopped accelerating at 172 on I-10.

Speed story diversions aside, I think MW's point about weight and speed stands on its own.

GalaxyFlyer · Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:04 am

His point does indeed still stand, but weight and speed come up second to time and money. Trucks run fast because the revenue gain more than makes up for the cost. Look back to the days he’s talking about—the 60s and 70s. The years of “chicken trucks”; Monfort and Carolina Western speeding across the country. Everyone wants to reduce travel times and are willing to pay for the time saved.

readytotaxi · Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:24 am

Found this bit on BBC news site today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58930277

"About half of households use natural gas for heating and will see their bills jump by 30% in October-March compared to last year, the EIA it said.
Those who use heating oil or propane - around 10% - could see their costs jump by 54% and 43% respectively. "

One heck of a rise

MohawkWeekend · Sat Oct 16, 2021 11:40 am

I'm more amazed at the speed of personal vehicles - no wonder fatalities are way up.

That first cold front is just rolling thru the midwest now. People will freak when they get their heating bills. Heck - I freaked when I got my Home Insurance - it went up 10% due to higher replacement building costs. Interesting that there was a warning about "do not generate electricity at your home" Defense against paying claims - home fires, hail damage, people falling off roof inspecting solar systems?

lightsaber · Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:33 pm

casinterest wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
I posted this a week ago, today's price in right column
All Prices
WTI CRUDE • 75.45 78.89
BRENT CRUDE 79.56 82.74
NATURAL GAS 5.427 6.17
HEATING OIL 2.306 2.49

China is buying cargoes left and right and OPEC isn't increasing production.
Expect the airlines to address this when they release their 3Q 2021 Earnings

These prices are historically not bad, especially for those of us that were on the site from 2004 -2014, and are actually not that high considering the prepandemic prices.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude- ... tory-chart

OPEC will outwardly bluster that they won't increase production, but member states slowly will as demand goes up, as will the frackers. Money to be made has many fans.

The current prices are actually enough to get fracking moving again.

As for inflation, that is coming from the money supply, not so much from energy issues.

Are the current prices enough to notably expand fracking? I thought closer to $100/bbl was required.

Lightsaber

casinterest · Sat Oct 23, 2021 1:07 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
I posted this a week ago, today's price in right column
All Prices
WTI CRUDE • 75.45 78.89
BRENT CRUDE 79.56 82.74
NATURAL GAS 5.427 6.17
HEATING OIL 2.306 2.49

China is buying cargoes left and right and OPEC isn't increasing production.
Expect the airlines to address this when they release their 3Q 2021 Earnings

These prices are historically not bad, especially for those of us that were on the site from 2004 -2014, and are actually not that high considering the prepandemic prices.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude- ... tory-chart

OPEC will outwardly bluster that they won't increase production, but member states slowly will as demand goes up, as will the frackers. Money to be made has many fans.

The current prices are actually enough to get fracking moving again.

As for inflation, that is coming from the money supply, not so much from energy issues.

Are the current prices enough to notably expand fracking? I thought closer to $100/bbl was required.

Lightsaber

The old days it was 70.

We will have to see as i think it is a highly fungible number. Labor may still be too tight, but I doubt it.
The one way to know that fracking still accounts for most oil production is to look at the US imports. We don't import a lot from OPEC anymore. ... Can you say O'Canada

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wimpc_s1_w.htm

Fracking is still going strong, and I expect part of OPEC's bluster is that they keep getting cut out by local supply right now.

frmrCapCadet · Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:41 pm

When I first started driving in the 50s gas was 35 cents a gallon. With taxes it is now just under $4. Excluding taxes those are almost equivalent values after inflation. Google $1 inflated to today and a variety of charts etc will pop up. Here is a discussion from a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, written in 2019, updated in early 2020 reflecting onset of Covid.

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0521

MohawkWeekend · Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:25 pm

Quote today from the BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink said one of the problems is that policymakers are moving more aggressively to curb fossil fuels supply than demand.

"Short-term policies related to environmentalism in terms of restricting supply of hydrocarbons has created energy inflation, and we're going to be living with that for some time," Fink said at the conference." From CNN

In other words, don't attack demand, reduce supply.

Coal prices have increased 35% this year to two-year high (Bloomberg)
Natural gas prices have been racing higher and are now 99% higher year-to-date, on combination of supply concerns and rising demand. (CNBC)

Aaron747 · Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:09 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Quote today from the BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink said one of the problems is that policymakers are moving more aggressively to curb fossil fuels supply than demand.

"Short-term policies related to environmentalism in terms of restricting supply of hydrocarbons has created energy inflation, and we're going to be living with that for some time," Fink said at the conference." From CNN

In other words, don't attack demand, reduce supply.

Coal prices have increased 35% this year to two-year high (Bloomberg)
Natural gas prices have been racing higher and are now 99% higher year-to-date, on combination of supply concerns and rising demand. (CNBC)

Fink is only partially right, and intentionally overstates the impact of environmental policy. Industry analysts say COVID is the primary reason we’re in this pain right now. They chose short term profit protection over planning for pandemic exit demand.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 633468.php

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-01-12/

MohawkWeekend · Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:36 am

Probably more directed at Europe - closing nukes in Germany, coal power plant shutdowns throughout Europe and environmental pushback on new drilling in the North Sea.

But it impacts here too. Will be interesting to see what nat gas prices in New England and New York will be if they have to import more LNG which provides the 25% of their gas needs now . It selling for around $34 per million BTU or twice what New England consumers are paying now. GalaxyFlyer - go buy a wood pellet stove while you can!

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-10-04/

Aaron747 · Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:47 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Probably more directed at Europe - closing nukes in Germany, coal power plant shutdowns throughout Europe and environmental pushback on new drilling in the North Sea.

But it impacts here too. Will be interesting to see what nat gas prices in New England and New York will be if they have to import more LNG which provides the 25% of their gas needs now . It selling for around $34 per million BTU or twice what New England consumers are paying now. GalaxyFlyer - go buy a wood pellet stove while you can!

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-10-04/

There were massive COVID layoffs in the US LNG sector as well.

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/dominat ... own-in-21/

I'm just saying Fink can claim whatever he wants, but he's being objectively misleading by not calling out what the oil and gas companies have done to their own production capacity through profit protection last year. Had everything to do with payroll cuts and nothing to do with regulation. They knew full well it would take a few years to refill positions.

GalaxyFlyer · Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:48 am

Already have a stove, thanks. Propane for base heat, stove to warm living/kitchen area in the evening. WTI will be over $125 a barrel next spring.

MohawkWeekend · Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:42 am

To me the failure to build a gas line from the fields of Ohio, Western Pa and WV to the Northeast (and the ban on fracking in NY) is the best example of the our failure to make good choices. Do you know where the extra gas goes? DTE Energy and the Canadians built a multi-billion dollar line from Ohio to Ontario Canada. Shell Oil is building a multi billion dollar petro chemical plant near Pittsburgh to make plastics. And the rest is shipped south. I'll be paying probably 50 to 75% less for natural gas to heat my house in NE Ohio than someone in Boston .

We've also had plans to put a wind farm in Lake Erie. Fought tooth and nail by the Enviro's worried about migrating birds. It doesn't seem to matter to them that the shoreline of Ontario is dotted with windmills as far as the eye can see.

Aesma · Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:27 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Quote today from the BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink said one of the problems is that policymakers are moving more aggressively to curb fossil fuels supply than demand.

"Short-term policies related to environmentalism in terms of restricting supply of hydrocarbons has created energy inflation, and we're going to be living with that for some time," Fink said at the conference." From CNN

In other words, don't attack demand, reduce supply.

Coal prices have increased 35% this year to two-year high (Bloomberg)
Natural gas prices have been racing higher and are now 99% higher year-to-date, on combination of supply concerns and rising demand. (CNBC)

I don't pretend to have the perfect solution, but prices being high and getting higher is an extremely strong incentive to find alternatives.

In Norway people buy electric cars by default now, why ? Gas cars get taxed to death, there is more to pay in taxes than the price of the car itself. Electric cars avoid most of these taxes.

frmrCapCadet · Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:46 pm

I have read, sorry no link, that most fracking becomes profitable at WTI $80. There were far less incentives to drill when oil was at $40-60. The best forum, The Oil Drum, closed down several years ago. Oil Price Dot Com seems to be as good as any now, but definitely lacks the academic and oil insider info of Oil Drum. Anyone know anything better.

MohawkWeekend · Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:35 pm

US politicians will never raise gasoline taxes or implement carbon taxes. They are planning on adding huge subsidies for electric vehicles in the Biden package. But truefully, they'd get more bang for the buck subsidising Honda Civic's (and other hybrids) which are already 50 % less expensive than EV's and sip gasoline. That would put way less stress on the electric grid than EV's too and they wouldn't need to spend all that money on chargers.

But Americans love their SUV's and Pickups. Beats me why.

casinterest · Wed Oct 27, 2021 5:04 pm

And the crude oil inventories are now starting to rise as winter inventories begin to build out. Even the imports are on the rise
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/C ... Rally.html

Aaron747 · Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:19 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
One month ago I posted these prices with today's US price listed to the right. By late next week, a major cold front is due to roll down from Canada. New England and NY are going to wish they allowed that gas pipeline.
In USD -
WTI CRUDE • 75.45 (81.01)
BRENT CRUDE 79.56 (82.18)
NATURAL GAS 5.427 (5.641)
HEATING OIL 2.306 (2.43)

The pipeline would have zero impact on today's prices because it would only deliver crude oil. US refineries that weren't shut down during COVID cannot ramp up back to capacity because of severe understaffing. How long do you think it takes to replace 107,000 job losses?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 633468.php

casinterest · Wed Nov 03, 2021 5:12 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
One month ago I posted these prices with today's US price listed to the right. By late next week, a major cold front is due to roll down from Canada. New England and NY are going to wish they allowed that gas pipeline.
In USD -
WTI CRUDE • 75.45 (81.01)
BRENT CRUDE 79.56 (82.18)
NATURAL GAS 5.427 (5.641)
HEATING OIL 2.306 (2.43)

The pipeline would have zero impact on today's prices because it would only deliver crude oil. US refineries that weren't shut down during COVID cannot ramp up back to capacity because of severe understaffing. How long do you think it takes to replace 107,000 job losses?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 633468.php

And there is this,.

https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/oi ... 021-11-03/

il prices fell on Wednesday, after U.S. crude stocks rose more than expected in the most recent week, even as gasoline inventories hit a four-year low in the world's largest oil consumer.

Brent crude futures were down $2.43, or 2.9%, at $82.29 a barrel at 12:54 p.m. EDT (1654 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures tumbled $2.75, or 3.3%, to $81.16 a barrel.

Crude stocks rose more by 3.3 million barrels in the most recent week, more than expected, but gasoline stocks fell to their lowest level since November 2017. U.S. oil market supply has tightened, with stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub at their lowest in three years.

The stocks are rising and the 90 day outlook isn't that great for a massive east coast winter event

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /page2.gif

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