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Toenga
Posts: 370
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:17 am

c933103 wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
A theory is that delta has mutated to self extinction!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid- ... QYC4BGDOA/


Well that sure would be nice.

that's the report I posted sone weeks ago
But it rely on an enzyme that's much more active among East Asian and Oceanian than other populations.


Sorry to have missed the significance of your earlier posting.

And enzymes exhibiting racial bias!
Positive discrimination perhaps?
Heh, cellebrate, (and wisely use) any advantage you have.

And a huge pity that our oceanic Pacifika people's, including our indigenous Maori, seemed to have missed out on that enzymatic advantage. They could really do with some advantage to compensate for the other disadvantages they have had to endure here, coping with covid.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:20 am

fallap wrote:

The current health crisis stems from unvaccinated people. Question remains how we manage to to vaccinate the majority of the population? Coercion, bullying, and damnation are not the first methods to apply in my book as it will only fan the flames of the growing scepticism to the vaccines (it is in fact possible to be pro-vaccine and anti-Covid-vaccine at the same time) and do little to build trust between the population and the state. Here in Denmark we have always had a unique high level of trust in our state, and for that reason vaccination rates are fairly high which means we get to avoid the most draconian of measures. If anything, I would suggest finding long term solutions and policy proposals that would serve to increase trust in the government as a high correlation exist between vaccinations and trust.


Building trust takes time. Time which there is none of when hundreds are dying all over Europe everyday and thousands across the World.
It's also hard to compare different nations where as the general spirit of contestation varies a lot between the, especially between Northern and Southern Europe.

I would hate to live in a society where your access to health care is governed by your choice of vaccinations etc. We also treat victims of car crashes who didn't wear seatbelts, and I find it worrying that you would love to see people turned away and die because they didn't get the vaccine - this isn't a society we ought to strive for.


I know, which is why I mentioned ethics.
People not wearing seatbelts nowadays are very rare. Treating them will not overload hospitals. If 40% of people stopped wearing seatbelts, road deaths would suddenly shot through the roof, which is why buckling up is mandatory. I don't see a bunch of people crying about how it restricts their personal freedoms (anymore, at least), even though not wearing them only jeopardizes their safety and no one else's (unlike those who decide not to vaccinate).
Following the same logic, and since not treating the unvaccinated would be unethical, vaccinating should be mandatory.
In fact, it already is for many other vaccines, at least for crucial things like attending school in many places.

Calling unvaccinated people uneducated and math-challenged will not improve anything but your ego at best, and most likely carve the ditch deeper and only add more frustration. Remember people voting for Trump? This is the behavior we risk seeing in the future if the "deplorables" are treated as such. :)


Those deplorables got their mentality and lack of good judgement through decades of poor education and exposure to flawed information. Changing this will take a long time. We don't have a long time.

On a final note, being vaccinated against diseases not Covid-19 is not forced upon people, yet those diseases also pose a risk against the rest of the community.

To summarize; creating trust between the state and the people will be far more beneficial in the long run compared to coersion, and at this point in the pandemic people are starting to lose patience with lock-downs etc.

Best wishes, Fallap <3


As I said, some vaccines are already mandatory in many places for children. I agree that gaining trust is a better option but, without even talking about how this would be achieved, there is no way this would be done in a timely fashion for Covid.

In Western nations where vaccines have been readily available for almost a year, 100% of the adult population could easily have been immunized long ago, theoretically. The current wave could have been vastly more subdued and caused much less grief to everyone.
Everyone is tired of lockdowns, but it's hard for those enduring them and who have vaccinated to not feel anger at the fact that they could have been avoided if a bunch of adults with the mind of children had decided to vaccinate in the face of overwhelming evidence that it is the right thing to do and the only way out of this crisis.

Interestingly, many of those throwing vaccine tantrums will actually and suddenly get vaccinated when not doing so would mean losing their jobs or otherwise getting in trouble. Coercion is not great, but sometimes it works.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 15215
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:29 pm

c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
fallap wrote:

The current health crisis stems from unvaccinated people. Question remains how we manage to to vaccinate the majority of the population? Coercion, bullying, and damnation are not the first methods to apply in my book as it will only fan the flames of the growing scepticism to the vaccines (it is in fact possible to be pro-vaccine and anti-Covid-vaccine at the same time) and do little to build trust between the population and the state. Here in Denmark we have always had a unique high level of trust in our state, and for that reason vaccination rates are fairly high which means we get to avoid the most draconian of measures. If anything, I would suggest finding long term solutions and policy proposals that would serve to increase trust in the government as a high correlation exist between vaccinations and trust.

I would hate to live in a society where your access to health care is governed by your choice of vaccinations etc. We also treat victims of car crashes who didn't wear seatbelts, and I find it worrying that you would love to see people turned away and die because they didn't get the vaccine - this isn't a society we ought to strive for.

Calling unvaccinated people uneducated and math-challenged will not improve anything but your ego at best, and most likely carve the ditch deeper and only add more frustration. Remember people voting for Trump? This is the behavior we risk seeing in the future if the "deplorables" are treated as such. :)

On a final note, being vaccinated against diseases not Covid-19 is not forced upon people, yet those diseases also pose a risk against the rest of the community.

To summarize; creating trust between the state and the people will be far more beneficial in the long run compared to coersion, and at this point in the pandemic people are starting to lose patience with lock-downs etc.

Best wishes, Fallap <3


In this case ,I think people need to be forced through coercion. you want the job, you get the vaccine. you don't want the vaccine, you pay more for insurance since your actions will result in more strain on healthcare.
I am not in favor of tying people down and administering it, but I am also not in favor of having my neighbor overworked by dumb people that show up sick, and say they thought it was all a joke.
Here in the US it is not about distrust between the state and the public, It is about dishonorable and unqualified people lying to the uneducated and working in a feedback loop. Everyone was coddled for over 18 months. Now it is about getting on with our lives in a vaccinated state, and to stop overworking the health professionals.

If they are stuck in their feedback loop of ignorance that affects others that can't get the shot, or have to deal with the consequences of them winding up in the hospital., the only way out is to mandate the shots.
Just watch the US numbers coming in the next two -four weeks to see how big an issue the Northeast will go into with the Holiday explosion of cases in the states. We may get a gimpse of how bad it will get tomorrow or Wednesday, but the numbers roiling in from Nov-30 forward will probably be showing highly escalated numbers of cases.

Are you in favor of banning the sale of coca cola and alcohol for their negative health effect? As stores selling alcohol or cocacola help worsen the community's condition and thus damaging the soxiety for rheir profits



Coca cola is a personal issue. Alcohol is a personal issue for the most part, but when it comes down to drinking and driving, there are already laws on the books as to what you can and can't do. It is also heavily taxes to help pay for it's societal issues.

The vaccines and this virus are an issue where we all pay a TON of money for people's refusal to get vaccinated. Beds in the hospital are taken, medical premiums are skyrocketing.

As was documented yesterday, 95% of Federal workers already got the vaccine. So the ones that aren't getting it, either have a medical excuse, or the ignorant. So it isn't an issue of the vaccine being unsafe. It is more of an issue of misinformation and fraud that people consume lately.
 
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c933103
Posts: 6436
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:25 pm

casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

In this case ,I think people need to be forced through coercion. you want the job, you get the vaccine. you don't want the vaccine, you pay more for insurance since your actions will result in more strain on healthcare.
I am not in favor of tying people down and administering it, but I am also not in favor of having my neighbor overworked by dumb people that show up sick, and say they thought it was all a joke.
Here in the US it is not about distrust between the state and the public, It is about dishonorable and unqualified people lying to the uneducated and working in a feedback loop. Everyone was coddled for over 18 months. Now it is about getting on with our lives in a vaccinated state, and to stop overworking the health professionals.

If they are stuck in their feedback loop of ignorance that affects others that can't get the shot, or have to deal with the consequences of them winding up in the hospital., the only way out is to mandate the shots.
Just watch the US numbers coming in the next two -four weeks to see how big an issue the Northeast will go into with the Holiday explosion of cases in the states. We may get a gimpse of how bad it will get tomorrow or Wednesday, but the numbers roiling in from Nov-30 forward will probably be showing highly escalated numbers of cases.

Are you in favor of banning the sale of coca cola and alcohol for their negative health effect? As stores selling alcohol or cocacola help worsen the community's condition and thus damaging the soxiety for rheir profits



Coca cola is a personal issue. Alcohol is a personal issue for the most part, but when it comes down to drinking and driving, there are already laws on the books as to what you can and can't do. It is also heavily taxes to help pay for it's societal issues.

The vaccines and this virus are an issue where we all pay a TON of money for people's refusal to get vaccinated. Beds in the hospital are taken, medical premiums are skyrocketing.

As was documented yesterday, 95% of Federal workers already got the vaccine. So the ones that aren't getting it, either have a medical excuse, or the ignorant. So it isn't an issue of the vaccine being unsafe. It is more of an issue of misinformation and fraud that people consume lately.

Do you think we will need as much beds in hospitals and as much insurance premium, if everyone on earth stopped consuming coca cola and alcohol?
And I am not asking about the individual consumption but the sales and distribution of such products across the society, which make it boarder than just individual buyers.
Also, on whether the vaccine is safe or not, be aware that human usually do not understand probabilities correctly. As some said, you're more likely to encounter traffic accident on the road to and from airport, than to experience an aviation disaster during the flight. Yet there are still much more people having some sort of fear or unassureness against taking a plane, than driving to an airport. That's just nature of human. Activities that need to be went out of way to do is being treated with additional caution versus the alternative default scenario. There might even be people driving across the US to avoid flying, despite the chance of getting an traffic accident this way could be much higher than taking the flight.
 
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c933103
Posts: 6436
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:36 pm

Toenga wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Newark727 wrote:

Well that sure would be nice.

that's the report I posted sone weeks ago
But it rely on an enzyme that's much more active among East Asian and Oceanian than other populations.


Sorry to have missed the significance of your earlier posting.

And enzymes exhibiting racial bias!
Positive discrimination perhaps?
Heh, cellebrate, (and wisely use) any advantage you have.

And a huge pity that our oceanic Pacifika people's, including our indigenous Maori, seemed to have missed out on that enzymatic advantage. They could really do with some advantage to compensate for the other disadvantages they have had to endure here, coping with covid.

The theory being proposed was that, enzyme induced change boosting mutation rate and weakening its stability as it transmit, ultimately losing out its transitivity.
First, for that to happen, the mutated version must first dominate a country's caseload, and it'd be more difficult in situation where the community also contain people who do not have as active the enzyme to trigger the mutation, as in such case those original copies can just won out against the mutated version and keep circulating.
Second, is that it take times for the virus to mutate. From what I read in my previous post, Japanese society was dominated by the mutated version of the virus just as the peak arrive, medical emergency status reached, and vaccination program start. That was already some months after Delta entering Japan. I don't think anyone can tell for sure how much the virus will need to transmit and copy itself to mutate to meet such criteria, although there were the 120 days cycles being proposed yet that's same as the West's, and the global, cycle of pandemic peaks as another user pointed out.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:32 pm

c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Are you in favor of banning the sale of coca cola and alcohol for their negative health effect? As stores selling alcohol or cocacola help worsen the community's condition and thus damaging the soxiety for rheir profits



Coca cola is a personal issue. Alcohol is a personal issue for the most part, but when it comes down to drinking and driving, there are already laws on the books as to what you can and can't do. It is also heavily taxes to help pay for it's societal issues.

The vaccines and this virus are an issue where we all pay a TON of money for people's refusal to get vaccinated. Beds in the hospital are taken, medical premiums are skyrocketing.

As was documented yesterday, 95% of Federal workers already got the vaccine. So the ones that aren't getting it, either have a medical excuse, or the ignorant. So it isn't an issue of the vaccine being unsafe. It is more of an issue of misinformation and fraud that people consume lately.

Do you think we will need as much beds in hospitals and as much insurance premium, if everyone on earth stopped consuming coca cola and alcohol?
And I am not asking about the individual consumption but the sales and distribution of such products across the society, which make it boarder than just individual buyers.
Also, on whether the vaccine is safe or not, be aware that human usually do not understand probabilities correctly. As some said, you're more likely to encounter traffic accident on the road to and from airport, than to experience an aviation disaster during the flight. Yet there are still much more people having some sort of fear or unassureness against taking a plane, than driving to an airport. That's just nature of human. Activities that need to be went out of way to do is being treated with additional caution versus the alternative default scenario. There might even be people driving across the US to avoid flying, despite the chance of getting an traffic accident this way could be much higher than taking the flight.



Alcohol and Soda are consumption items that some folks overconsume. Do not confuse it with a virus that can be overspread to others that can't protect themselves. There are a list of vaccines required to attend school, join the military, and random drug tests in jobs that people must conform too. These all have nothing to do with what people are afraid to do, but what companies and governments must do to protect them selves.
 
Toenga
Posts: 370
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:43 pm

c933103 wrote:
The theory being proposed was that, enzyme induced change boosting mutation rate and weakening its stability as it transmit, ultimately losing out its transitivity.
First, for that to happen, the mutated version must first dominate a country's caseload, and it'd be more difficult in situation where the community also contain people who do not have as active the enzyme to trigger the mutation, as in such case those original copies can just won out against the mutated version and keep circulating.
Second, is that it take times for the virus to mutate. From what I read in my previous post, Japanese society was dominated by the mutated version of the virus just as the peak arrive, medical emergency status reached, and vaccination program start. That was already some months after Delta entering Japan. I don't think anyone can tell for sure how much the virus will need to transmit and copy itself to mutate to meet such criteria, although there were the 120 days cycles being proposed yet that's same as the West's, and the global, cycle of pandemic peaks as another user pointed out.


Very interesting, and thanks for filling in some background.

Really great, if you have that advantage, This pandemic has highlighted that the countries that have feared best are those that have maximised any small advantage they have been gifted. Our late ramp up of our vaccination program, largely squandered the very huge advantage we had had by a delayed arrival to our shores of delta.

So, we cannot relax at all from our path of maximising our vaccination rates, in combination with a continuation of various public health measures, if we are intent on limiting covid damage and covid deaths in our lives.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:44 pm

casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Coca cola is a personal issue. Alcohol is a personal issue for the most part, but when it comes down to drinking and driving, there are already laws on the books as to what you can and can't do. It is also heavily taxes to help pay for it's societal issues.

The vaccines and this virus are an issue where we all pay a TON of money for people's refusal to get vaccinated. Beds in the hospital are taken, medical premiums are skyrocketing.

As was documented yesterday, 95% of Federal workers already got the vaccine. So the ones that aren't getting it, either have a medical excuse, or the ignorant. So it isn't an issue of the vaccine being unsafe. It is more of an issue of misinformation and fraud that people consume lately.

Do you think we will need as much beds in hospitals and as much insurance premium, if everyone on earth stopped consuming coca cola and alcohol?
And I am not asking about the individual consumption but the sales and distribution of such products across the society, which make it boarder than just individual buyers.
Also, on whether the vaccine is safe or not, be aware that human usually do not understand probabilities correctly. As some said, you're more likely to encounter traffic accident on the road to and from airport, than to experience an aviation disaster during the flight. Yet there are still much more people having some sort of fear or unassureness against taking a plane, than driving to an airport. That's just nature of human. Activities that need to be went out of way to do is being treated with additional caution versus the alternative default scenario. There might even be people driving across the US to avoid flying, despite the chance of getting an traffic accident this way could be much higher than taking the flight.



Alcohol and Soda are consumption items that some folks overconsume. Do not confuse it with a virus that can be overspread to others that can't protect themselves. There are a list of vaccines required to attend school, join the military, and random drug tests in jobs that people must conform too. These all have nothing to do with what people are afraid to do, but what companies and governments must do to protect them selves.

Nevertheless principle of all medication including vaccination is voluntary. One can opt to homeschool if they don't want to attend schools that require vaccination, one can opt not to join military or not to work for some particular companies that have some particular medical procedure requirements when there are other positions available. But a bracket ban against unvaccinated individuals across entire society would mean a number of basic human rights would be stripped off those who fail to conquer their fear against vaccination. That wouldn't be a good way forward either.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 15215
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:47 pm

c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Do you think we will need as much beds in hospitals and as much insurance premium, if everyone on earth stopped consuming coca cola and alcohol?
And I am not asking about the individual consumption but the sales and distribution of such products across the society, which make it boarder than just individual buyers.
Also, on whether the vaccine is safe or not, be aware that human usually do not understand probabilities correctly. As some said, you're more likely to encounter traffic accident on the road to and from airport, than to experience an aviation disaster during the flight. Yet there are still much more people having some sort of fear or unassureness against taking a plane, than driving to an airport. That's just nature of human. Activities that need to be went out of way to do is being treated with additional caution versus the alternative default scenario. There might even be people driving across the US to avoid flying, despite the chance of getting an traffic accident this way could be much higher than taking the flight.



Alcohol and Soda are consumption items that some folks overconsume. Do not confuse it with a virus that can be overspread to others that can't protect themselves. There are a list of vaccines required to attend school, join the military, and random drug tests in jobs that people must conform too. These all have nothing to do with what people are afraid to do, but what companies and governments must do to protect them selves.

Nevertheless principle of all medication including vaccination is voluntary. One can opt to homeschool if they don't want to attend schools that require vaccination, one can opt not to join military or not to work for some particular companies that have some particular medical procedure requirements when there are other positions available. But a bracket ban against unvaccinated individuals across entire society would mean a number of basic human rights would be stripped off those who fail to conquer their fear against vaccination. That wouldn't be a good way forward either.


At this point I have lost my freedoms due to this disease. I want those freedoms back, so if it means a bunch of uneducated folks have to get over their fears of a needle, so be it. Letting people do it voluntarily has failed to return life to normal. So if their "freedoms" have to be interrupted so the majority of us can get back to normal so be it. And the benefit for them will be that they will get a vaccine that will save some of their lives.
 
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c933103
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Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:32 pm

casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Alcohol and Soda are consumption items that some folks overconsume. Do not confuse it with a virus that can be overspread to others that can't protect themselves. There are a list of vaccines required to attend school, join the military, and random drug tests in jobs that people must conform too. These all have nothing to do with what people are afraid to do, but what companies and governments must do to protect them selves.

Nevertheless principle of all medication including vaccination is voluntary. One can opt to homeschool if they don't want to attend schools that require vaccination, one can opt not to join military or not to work for some particular companies that have some particular medical procedure requirements when there are other positions available. But a bracket ban against unvaccinated individuals across entire society would mean a number of basic human rights would be stripped off those who fail to conquer their fear against vaccination. That wouldn't be a good way forward either.


At this point I have lost my freedoms due to this disease. I want those freedoms back, so if it means a bunch of uneducated folks have to get over their fears of a needle, so be it. Letting people do it voluntarily has failed to return life to normal. So if their "freedoms" have to be interrupted so the majority of us can get back to normal so be it. And the benefit for them will be that they will get a vaccine that will save some of their lives.

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-local-covid-19-situation-(23-nov-2021)
https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19
Singapore, with 94% eligible population vaccinated, still only capable of limiting the reproduction rate to 0.83, that is while maintaining strict restriction on gathering and dine-in that only 2 people are allowed together until yesterday. These restrictions were put in place after reopening at 80% population vaccinated proved surges in cases including severe cases straining the medical system, and the situation were being put under control only with those measures tightened again after the reopening despite the high vaccination rate. Policies like mask wearing mandates are still in place. Even with vaccination rate of 100%, it can be figured that the virus will still be highly transmissive, and reopening everything will still bring the medical system under stress. So that wouldn't lead to the "freedom" you desire.
As have already been shown in places with high vaccination rate, the low number of unvax translate to most of the severe cases being vaccinated people, and those severe cases will still occurs and medical resource will still be strained even after you vaccinate every single individuals. The vaccine can lower the rate of severe case by 90% and rate of death by like 95% for Delta, however that still mean something like 2% chance of becoming severe and 0.1% chance of being death due to the virus after getting vaccinated, among general population, and will be higher among vulnerable groups.
If such scenario is deemed low risk enough for the reopening to occur to regain your freedom, then it already isn't different from situation of most Western countries nowadays. The marginal benefit of forcing the remaining population into vaccination wouldn't help the society maintain normal with medical system also functioning normally. Restrictions are here to stay. Alternative would be you just let it burn all over. And that might be the approach necessary even after 100% vaccination, when the virus still fail to die down in 100% vaccinated communities. If that is the case then doing it now without vaccine mandate will also be same..
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:59 am

c933103 wrote:
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-local-covid-19-situation-(23-nov-2021)
https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19
Singapore, with 94% eligible population vaccinated, still only capable of limiting the reproduction rate to 0.83, that is while maintaining strict restriction on gathering and dine-in that only 2 people are allowed together until yesterday. These restrictions were put in place after reopening at 80% population vaccinated proved surges in cases including severe cases straining the medical system, and the situation were being put under control only with those measures tightened again after the reopening despite the high vaccination rate. Policies like mask wearing mandates are still in place. Even with vaccination rate of 100%, it can be figured that the virus will still be highly transmissive, and reopening everything will still bring the medical system under stress. So that wouldn't lead to the "freedom" you desire.
As have already been shown in places with high vaccination rate, the low number of unvax translate to most of the severe cases being vaccinated people, and those severe cases will still occurs and medical resource will still be strained even after you vaccinate every single individuals. The vaccine can lower the rate of severe case by 90% and rate of death by like 95% for Delta, however that still mean something like 2% chance of becoming severe and 0.1% chance of being death due to the virus after getting vaccinated, among general population, and will be higher among vulnerable groups.
If such scenario is deemed low risk enough for the reopening to occur to regain your freedom, then it already isn't different from situation of most Western countries nowadays. The marginal benefit of forcing the remaining population into vaccination wouldn't help the society maintain normal with medical system also functioning normally. Restrictions are here to stay. Alternative would be you just let it burn all over. And that might be the approach necessary even after 100% vaccination, when the virus still fail to die down in 100% vaccinated communities. If that is the case then doing it now without vaccine mandate will also be same..



You said it yourself. Vaccination cuts hospitalizations by 90%.
It is a mathematical evidence that the proportion of vaccinated people in hospitals will increase as vaccination rate increases. The idea is that the overall number of hospitalized will also decrease drastically.
As for the rest, it is a matter of excess healthcare capacity, which many nations have little of since their system was built on decades of adjusting to a relatively stable sickness and mortality rate.
There is also the cultural tendency for a population to follow social distancing / mask wearing rules or not, which affects reproduction rate.

The game for every nation should be to try and manage all these variables to keep the healthcare system from being overloaded. This will happen differently in every nation, but the one thing that will not change is the fact that everyone will get infected eventually, probably repeatedly.
Vaccines are an important element towards building overall immunity, but there is no way around the fact that reaching enough immunity to achieve relatively benign endemicity will be a painful process that every nation will have to go through no matter what.
It's just better to go through it once most people are vaccinated to avoid most of the tears.

What I deplore is the fact that some governments around the World still seem to operate under the delusion that this can be avoided altogether or that they can remain in hiding until the big bad wolf is gone somehow, with the nasty consequence of fooling many in their population into believing they'll be safe forever.

Singapore is just about a best case scenario for the pandemic. They kept the infection very low until vaccines were available, they succeeded in vaccinating almost everyone and are now proceeding to open up slowly, with the full expectation that the infection rate and hospitalisations - along with inevitable deaths - will go up...
Of course, it is much easier to achieve in a tiny city/nation with a small population and easily controlable borders (and a relatively authoritarian government) than most everywhere else in the World.
 
Toenga
Posts: 370
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:33 am

Francoflier wrote:


Singapore is just about a best case scenario for the pandemic. They kept the infection very low until vaccines were available, they succeeded in vaccinating almost everyone and are now proceeding to open up slowly, with the full expectation that the infection rate and hospitalisations - along with inevitable deaths - will go up...
Of course, it is much easier to achieve in a tiny city/nation with a small population and easily controlable borders (and a relatively authoritarian government) than most everywhere else in the World.


And I think it will come to some surprise to you is that this is the exact same model that NZ is pursuing.
We are just further behind in progress.
Currently at 78% 1st dose 72% second. The big split is indicative of continuing high but falling daily vaccinations, Currently a fairly constant 2/3 second doses per day. As we have a younger population then Singapore a 100% of age 12 and over is about 86% of our population so until we get our pediatric vaccines we simply can't reach Singapore's vaccination penetration.

We are still keeping infections very largely confined to only one area of NZ by a controlled internal border.
Outside the border is relitively unrestricted except in gathering sizes, densities, and mask mandates in public indoor spaces.
Inside the border, is more restricted. Hospitality is currently closed except for takeaways as are other close contact type indoor businesses
But reopening some businesses for fully vaccinated people is commencing tomorrow when hair cuts will become available.
The rest of businesses and hospitality here will reopen to fully vaccinated people Dec 3rd.
The internal border falls Dec 15th to fully vaccinated people or to holders of a very recent negative covid test,
The first of 3 stages? of opening our international border without quarantine is Jan17th,
The final stages of opening to all international travellers will commence April 30th
Depending on case numbers regions will reduce remaining restrictions, particularly around event sizes and around access for unvaccinated people to venues.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:00 pm

Francoflier wrote:
You said it yourself. Vaccination cuts hospitalizations by 90%.
It is a mathematical evidence that the proportion of vaccinated people in hospitals will increase as vaccination rate increases. The idea is that the overall number of hospitalized will also decrease drastically.
As for the rest, it is a matter of excess healthcare capacity, which many nations have little of since their system was built on decades of adjusting to a relatively stable sickness and mortality rate.
There is also the cultural tendency for a population to follow social distancing / mask wearing rules or not, which affects reproduction rate.

The problem is, as displayed in those high vaccinated rate countries reopening, the "decrease drastically" is still too much for the medical system to take.
Even if it decrease hospitalization by 90%, if 10 times more people are infected, then the benefit of vaccine would be cancelled out (10*(1-0.9)), and the stress on medical system will be the same.

The game for every nation should be to try and manage all these variables to keep the healthcare system from being overloaded. This will happen differently in every nation, but the one thing that will not change is the fact that everyone will get infected eventually, probably repeatedly.
Vaccines are an important element towards building overall immunity, but there is no way around the fact that reaching enough immunity to achieve relatively benign endemicity will be a painful process that every nation will have to go through no matter what.
It's just better to go through it once most people are vaccinated to avoid most of the tears.

Knowing that most will be infected ultimately, regardless of vaccination status, why stop them from picking the path they wish? That's like alcohol and gambling

What I deplore is the fact that some governments around the World still seem to operate under the delusion that this can be avoided altogether or that they can remain in hiding until the big bad wolf is gone somehow, with the nasty consequence of fooling many in their population into believing they'll be safe forever.

Singapore is just about a best case scenario for the pandemic. They kept the infection very low until vaccines were available, they succeeded in vaccinating almost everyone and are now proceeding to open up slowly, with the full expectation that the infection rate and hospitalisations - along with inevitable deaths - will go up...
Of course, it is much easier to achieve in a tiny city/nation with a small population and easily controlable borders (and a relatively authoritarian government) than most everywhere else in the World.

Yet Singapore's case rate and especially the hospitalization rate after reopening was still beyond expectation, forcing the government to tighten the measures once again to avoid medical system overload.
 
T4thH
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:27 pm

EMA has approved the Biontech vaccine for children (5 to 12 years).https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/biontech-kinderimpfstoff-101.html
Source is in German, use your implemented browser translator (if needed).
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:11 pm

Toenga wrote:
And I think it will come to some surprise to you is that this is the exact same model that NZ is pursuing.
We are just further behind in progress.
Currently at 78% 1st dose 72% second. The big split is indicative of continuing high but falling daily vaccinations, Currently a fairly constant 2/3 second doses per day. As we have a younger population then Singapore a 100% of age 12 and over is about 86% of our population so until we get our pediatric vaccines we simply can't reach Singapore's vaccination penetration.


It's no surprise. In part because of your continued coverage of the situation in NZ, in which I do sense quite a lot of pride...
Now, I always get a bit of smugness from Kiwis - and with good reason, it's a beautiful country - but I feel it is a bit misplaced in that particular case as NZ, being an inherently very isolated place with a small and sparse population was uniquely endowed to implement a 'hiding' strategy. Probably the ideal place on the planet to do so in fact.

That's why I'm more admirative of places like Singapore or HK, both of which have higher population than NZ, and especially a much higher population density. They also have active land borders and much busier sea and air hubs. Yet despite all this they managed to mostly keep the virus at bay throughout the worst of it and managed to secure early access to vaccines.
Of course, that's where their strategies differ.
Whereas Singapore has understood that the future lies in Covid-resilience, HK seems to be stuck in denial and will seemingly remain in hiding, isolated from the rest of the World (except China, presumably) for the foreseeable future... It will be interesting to see what that does to a city that owes its entire success in being an open international platform for business, but I guess that's for another debate.

Good luck to NZ in its dealing with Covid. The worst and hardest part is only about to start.

c933103 wrote:
The problem is, as displayed in those high vaccinated rate countries reopening, the "decrease drastically" is still too much for the medical system to take.
Even if it decrease hospitalization by 90%, if 10 times more people are infected, then the benefit of vaccine would be cancelled out (10*(1-0.9)), and the stress on medical system will be the same.


I don't advocate removing all restrictions either. There are effective measures to dampen contagion, some of which are incredibly effective relative to the minimal effort they require and few restrictions they entail, such as wearing masks and vaccinations.

Knowing that most will be infected ultimately, regardless of vaccination status, why stop them from picking the path they wish? That's like alcohol and gambling


Gambling mostly affects the gambler, his immediate family at worst. I don't pay their gambling debt.

Alcohol (and drugs, to an extent) are self-inflicted, not contagious and have always been part of society, meaning that our healthcare system has grown with it... It's part of the baseline. It's not exactly desirable, but still more desirable than what happens when you try to deprive a population of its psychotropics. See prohibition.
Some things we just can't live without.

So whereas gambling and alcohol provide some form of reward or escape to their users, Covid doesn't... on the contrary.
As a human being (a mediocre specimen, granted) I understand why some will resort to self-harm as long as they get a kick out of it. I don't want it to happen, but I do want these people to get help when they need it.
But those who end up in the hospital because they refuse to vaccinate? In the middle of a pandemic which is overloading the healthcare system? Denying other sick people of their access to health treatments and imposing more restrictions on everyone else's life? I have a fundamental problem with that. Especially when vaccines are available, free and completely harmless and safe.

Yet Singapore's case rate and especially the hospitalization rate after reopening was still beyond expectation, forcing the government to tighten the measures once again to avoid medical system overload.


Again, managing restrictions to safeguard hospital capacity is a good thing, as long as restrictions are justified and as muted and short as they need to be.
More unvaccinated people means more people in the hospital and therefore more restrictions which last longer. Their choice to not vaccinate directly and disproportionately affects the entire population.

When Covid is endemic and tolerance and immunity has been built to sufficiently high levels in the population that healthcare can cope, then fine, let people choose.
Right now however, in the middle of the largest global health crisis in living memory and hospitals are struggling to cope? Nah. Screw them and their 'personal choice'.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:01 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Whereas Singapore has understood that the future lies in Covid-resilience, HK seems to be stuck in denial and will seemingly remain in hiding, isolated from the rest of the World (except China, presumably) for the foreseeable future... It will be interesting to see what that does to a city that owes its entire success in being an open international platform for business, but I guess that's for another debate.

Good luck to NZ in its dealing with Covid. The worst and hardest part is only about to start.



Hong Kong has to do what China tells them to or the Land Border is shut off from mainland China. That will certainly affect the business and tourism markets but Beijing is making the call on what Hong Kong can do to stay open with the rest of China.

c933103 wrote:
Singapore, with 94% eligible population vaccinated, still only capable of limiting the reproduction rate to 0.83, that is while maintaining strict restriction on gathering and dine-in that only 2 people are allowed together until yesterday. These restrictions were put in place after reopening at 80% population vaccinated proved surges in cases including severe cases straining the medical system, and the situation were being put under control only with those measures tightened again after the reopening despite the high vaccination rate. Policies like mask wearing mandates are still in place. Even with vaccination rate of 100%, it can be figured that the virus will still be highly transmissive, and reopening everything will still bring the medical system under stress.


Its going to be an endemic virus with a R0 of about 1 and come and go seasonally. Like the common cold and flu.
Covid is too transmissible to eradicate and we are going to have to live with it and its unrealistic to keep everyone out of the hospital. We can't do that with the flu and bad influenza years and ICU's get stressed also. Vaccines and treatments should keep enough people out of the hospital excepted the most frail which is how is usually works in life. If that still overwhelms the system then we are going to need to build in the capacity and everyone's taxes and/or health insurance premiums will go up to hire and train the staff to be available to handle surges that might only be a small portion of the year.

This will be inefficient to have staff on hand when they will have nothing to do, but as we get older healthcare will have to be expanded and that is something.

I looked at the Singapore data and their numbers are stable for hospitalizations and deaths as is most places with vaccination numbers in the 80% rates.

Where I live in Ontario we still have some restrictions on things like nightclubs, bathhouses, strip clubs etc. But capacity restrictions in most other places are now gone with a vaccine passport in place. Indoor masking will remain throughout the winter our numbers while up ticking recently but we are talking 500 daily cases to 700 daily cases. With a 15 million population this is sustainable and our provincial medical officer of health says he won't be in a rush to tighten restrictions. We might pause but that's it. Our vaccination is at 80% and the kids vaccines will match that fairly quickly depending on access. Most parents who got it will make their kids get it, the hesitant won't so I expect a similar percentage of coverage in kids 5-11.

The problems in Europe is that their vaccination numbers are too low and unless you get to 80-90% of everyone you are going to get a surge.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:46 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Whereas Singapore has understood that the future lies in Covid-resilience, HK seems to be stuck in denial and will seemingly remain in hiding, isolated from the rest of the World (except China, presumably) for the foreseeable future... It will be interesting to see what that does to a city that owes its entire success in being an open international platform for business, but I guess that's for another debate.

It have been "unofficially" announced that Hong Kong will reopen its border with Mainland China starting from December 10 on the condition that Hong Kong further tighten its coronavirus prevention measure to Mainland China's level.

Francoflier wrote:
Knowing that most will be infected ultimately, regardless of vaccination status, why stop them from picking the path they wish? That's like alcohol and gambling


Gambling mostly affects the gambler, his immediate family at worst. I don't pay their gambling debt.

Alcohol (and drugs, to an extent) are self-inflicted, not contagious and have always been part of society, meaning that our healthcare system has grown with it... It's part of the baseline. It's not exactly desirable, but still more desirable than what happens when you try to deprive a population of its psychotropics. See prohibition.
Some things we just can't live without.

So whereas gambling and alcohol provide some form of reward or escape to their users, Covid doesn't... on the contrary.
As a human being (a mediocre specimen, granted) I understand why some will resort to self-harm as long as they get a kick out of it. I don't want it to happen, but I do want these people to get help when they need it.
But those who end up in the hospital because they refuse to vaccinate? In the middle of a pandemic which is overloading the healthcare system? Denying other sick people of their access to health treatments and imposing more restrictions on everyone else's life? I have a fundamental problem with that. Especially when vaccines are available, free and completely harmless and safe.

(...)

Again, managing restrictions to safeguard hospital capacity is a good thing, as long as restrictions are justified and as muted and short as they need to be.
More unvaccinated people means more people in the hospital and therefore more restrictions which last longer. Their choice to not vaccinate directly and disproportionately affects the entire population.

When Covid is endemic and tolerance and immunity has been built to sufficiently high levels in the population that healthcare can cope, then fine, let people choose.
Right now however, in the middle of the largest global health crisis in living memory and hospitals are struggling to cope? Nah. Screw them and their 'personal choice'.

Deprioritize treatment priority for unvaccinated would solve your concern and without upsetting those unvaccinated, despite them might end up suffering more.
But as things like wars on drug have shown, or as you have mentioned prohibition of alcohol, mandatory measures on such sort of matter isn't going to yield good consequence.
Covid treatment facility is going to become baseline in the long term too, if the new normal is to be live with covid.
(On the other hand, in a news I read some days ago, Japanese government apparently want to prioritize giving Pfizer's corona pill to "at-risk group", including specifically unvaccinated people, so as to lower their chance of hospitalization and lower the medical resource usage)
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:01 pm

And here comes Omicron. B.1.1.529
Travel is being shut down, but it appears that this variant has already traveled wide and far.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article ... riant.html

Several dozen cases of the Omicron variant have been sequenced in South Africa and Botswana. A handful of cases have been detected in Belgium, Hong Kong, and Israel — but were all among travelers. It is likely that the Omicron variant has already spread undetected elsewhere, as previous COVID variants have by the time they first appeared on scientists’ radar



We don't know if it is more contagious, or deadly at this point. We just know it has a lot of mutations. (Over 50) from the original Covid virus.

The concerning part for scientists is that 10 of the mutations are on the Spike . It is unknown how the vaccines are working on this variant at this point.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:24 am

casinterest wrote:
And here comes Omicron. B.1.1.529
Travel is being shut down, but it appears that this variant has already traveled wide and far.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article ... riant.html

Several dozen cases of the Omicron variant have been sequenced in South Africa and Botswana. A handful of cases have been detected in Belgium, Hong Kong, and Israel — but were all among travelers. It is likely that the Omicron variant has already spread undetected elsewhere, as previous COVID variants have by the time they first appeared on scientists’ radar



We don't know if it is more contagious, or deadly at this point. We just know it has a lot of mutations. (Over 50) from the original Covid virus.

The concerning part for scientists is that 10 of the mutations are on the Spike . It is unknown how the vaccines are working on this variant at this point.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ng-markets
Update: In South Africa around Johannesburg, 90% cases found are already identified as in the Omicron variant.

https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1464310918389587974
Also, it is revealed that, the reason why WHO skipped two Greek letter to name the new variant "Omicron", is because "Nu" can be confused with "New", and "Xi" is skipped to "avoid stigmatising a region"
Residents of the "region" which WHO think they would be stigmatised by having the variant named as "Xi" have my condolence.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:28 am

c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
And here comes Omicron. B.1.1.529
Travel is being shut down, but it appears that this variant has already traveled wide and far.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article ... riant.html

Several dozen cases of the Omicron variant have been sequenced in South Africa and Botswana. A handful of cases have been detected in Belgium, Hong Kong, and Israel — but were all among travelers. It is likely that the Omicron variant has already spread undetected elsewhere, as previous COVID variants have by the time they first appeared on scientists’ radar



We don't know if it is more contagious, or deadly at this point. We just know it has a lot of mutations. (Over 50) from the original Covid virus.

The concerning part for scientists is that 10 of the mutations are on the Spike . It is unknown how the vaccines are working on this variant at this point.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ng-markets
Update: In South Africa around Johannesburg, 90% cases found are already identified as in the Omicron variant.

https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1464310918389587974
Also, it is revealed that, the reason why WHO skipped two Greek letter to name the new variant "Omicron", is because "Nu" can be confused with "New", and "Xi" is skipped to "avoid stigmatising a region"
Residents of the "region" which WHO think they would be stigmatised by having the variant named as "Xi" have my condolence.

Wait... 90% of 1100 cases around Johannesburg is an even Thousand and they just started producing the test kit to quickly determine the type. Rhoo Rhoo

LoL on Xi.... They'll eventually need the letter. ;)

Lightsaber
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:53 am

StarAC17 wrote:

The problems in Europe is that their vaccination numbers are too low and unless you get to 80-90% of everyone you are going to get a surge.


Isn't that odd? The epidemiologists told us the vaccine rates would be key to living with this, and the Singapore data and your local experience in Ontario bear that out. Places with lower rates in Europe and the US keep experiencing repeated flare-ups. How odd...it's almost like...the experts were right? :crazy:
 
af773atmsp
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:29 am

Should I postpone my AMS trip or stick with heading there on the 30th? I'm fully vaccinated plus got a booster a couple weeks ago, and of course I wear a mask. I wasn't planning on doing anything with large gatherings involved unless public transport counts.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:52 am

af773atmsp wrote:
Should I postpone my AMS trip or stick with heading there on the 30th? I'm fully vaccinated plus got a booster a couple weeks ago, and of course I wear a mask. I wasn't planning on doing anything with large gatherings involved unless public transport counts.

You have to compare their situation with the situation in your country of origin, as well as your own level of risk, and duration and purpose of your trip.
The risk of Amsterdam government might announce stricter social distancing measures after you arrived there amid the new variant should also be considered, depends on what you plan to do there
And the longer you stay overseas, the higher chance the return policy of your country of origin's could change, and that might result in some situation that you don't want to see yourself in.
But it all depends on how many risk you can tolerate, including not just risk of infection but also risk of plan being disrupted mid-trip and after-trip.
And I would avoid removing masks inside any public transit vehicle including aircraft even if that is a long haul flight with meal.
There is also a question of who you might meet at your destination or after you return from destination, as the vaccine isn't as effective in stopping transmission as in alleviating the disease for the vaccinated individual themselves.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:01 am

lightsaber wrote:
Wait... 90% of 1100 cases around Johannesburg is an even Thousand and they just started producing the test kit to quickly determine the type. Rhoo Rhoo

https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern
As WHO mentioned, one of the popular PCR test come in handy in identifying the Omicron variant, as the one of the three genetic site used by that existing PCR test to identify corona was mutated in Omicron, so if the result show only the other two as positive but not the remaining site, then it'll likely be an Omicron case, and thus the new variant can be identified quickly even without new test suite.
 
Derico
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:16 pm

I've always wondered why can we now detect exoplanets in faraway GALAXIES, catch minute traces of DNA in 100,000 year old fossilized bone, have machines that detect elementary particles which exist for merely just fractions of a plank second (and are a fraction the size of an atom), but we still can't have 100% accurate and immediate results as to whether any foreign DNA / RNA is in a human system.

This whole problem would have been almost resolved by now and all borders reopened if the tests could be guaranteed and immediate. It's a puzzle as to why our detection methods are so far behind in this area.
 
Palop
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:54 pm

Derico wrote:
I've always wondered why can we now detect exoplanets in faraway GALAXIES, catch minute traces of DNA in 100,000 year old fossilized bone, have machines that detect elementary particles which exist for merely just fractions of a plank second (and are a fraction the size of an atom), but we still can't have 100% accurate and immediate results as to whether any foreign DNA / RNA is in a human system.

This whole problem would have been almost resolved by now and all borders reopened if the tests could be guaranteed and immediate. It's a puzzle as to why our detection methods are so far behind in this area.

Because biology is messy. In the human system there is already plenty of foreign DNA. Some of it is harmful. A lot of it is just there. And a lot of if is beneficial, like the bacteria flora in your digestive system. How do you account for all this variation? not just between human to human, but all the variations in the extra DNA present that is probably even more variable. You make hyper specific test to find what you are looking for, rather than looking for non human DNA which would produce a massive amount of false positives.
 
Derico
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:47 pm

Palop wrote:
Derico wrote:
I've always wondered why can we now detect exoplanets in faraway GALAXIES, catch minute traces of DNA in 100,000 year old fossilized bone, have machines that detect elementary particles which exist for merely just fractions of a plank second (and are a fraction the size of an atom), but we still can't have 100% accurate and immediate results as to whether any foreign DNA / RNA is in a human system.

This whole problem would have been almost resolved by now and all borders reopened if the tests could be guaranteed and immediate. It's a puzzle as to why our detection methods are so far behind in this area.

Because biology is messy. In the human system there is already plenty of foreign DNA. Some of it is harmful. A lot of it is just there. And a lot of if is beneficial, like the bacteria flora in your digestive system. How do you account for all this variation? not just between human to human, but all the variations in the extra DNA present that is probably even more variable. You make hyper specific test to find what you are looking for, rather than looking for non human DNA which would produce a massive amount of false positives.


I still don't get it. We can't make a hyper specific test? Why not? If you program the test and the computer to only flag ONE type of signal, why would you get so many false positives? Why can't we program digital equipment of today to just sweep for the one parameter (COVID-19, any known variant). I grant you that may not prevent new strains from sneaking through. But the point is why do we need to wait days for an accurate result, or sacrifice reliability for a 20 minute result? Why can't we have both near 100% accuracy in less than 10 minutes?

And even if we could not do that for whatever reasons (manpower, etc), why can't a test that is unrefinable in the administering stage be not refinable in the results stage? Just as long as it can tell you what IS there, then no matter if it spits out millions of hits, when the results are finished just type "COVID-19" in the search button of whatever program they use and presto. Biology may be messy but is it that difficult to determine you got this in you (no matter what amount or even if it's inert remains of the virus you just happened to breath in and got stuck in your nose), or you don't.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:04 pm

Derico wrote:
I've always wondered why can we now detect exoplanets in faraway GALAXIES, catch minute traces of DNA in 100,000 year old fossilized bone, have machines that detect elementary particles which exist for merely just fractions of a plank second (and are a fraction the size of an atom), but we still can't have 100% accurate and immediate results as to whether any foreign DNA / RNA is in a human system.

This whole problem would have been almost resolved by now and all borders reopened if the tests could be guaranteed and immediate. It's a puzzle as to why our detection methods are so far behind in this area.


Isolating DNA against dense bone material and training software to calculate light frequency differentials indicating presence of exoplanets are both *far easier* than what you're asking - identifying a specific nucleic acid marker amidst the smorgasbord of proteins expressed in the human system (which changes moment to moment with high variance between individuals). I don't know if you have ever taken a biochemistry course, but it's a killer - I found regular chemistry and physics to be much easier.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:30 pm

Derico wrote:
I've always wondered why can we now detect exoplanets in faraway GALAXIES, catch minute traces of DNA in 100,000 year old fossilized bone, have machines that detect elementary particles which exist for merely just fractions of a plank second (and are a fraction the size of an atom), but we still can't have 100% accurate and immediate results as to whether any foreign DNA / RNA is in a human system.

This whole problem would have been almost resolved by now and all borders reopened if the tests could be guaranteed and immediate. It's a puzzle as to why our detection methods are so far behind in this area.

It wasn't even a quarter of century ago that human decode out own genome for the first time, through multi year collaborative effort.
That we are now doing thousands and thousands of genome sequencing of the virus RNA around the world, *every day*, to track its mutation and evolution, is already something that cannot even be imagined back then.
But the main obstacle to detection now is sampling. Viruses can only be sampled after they've reproduced in sufficiently large quantity at the location we rake sample for the tests to pick up the signal of their existence.
We still do not have any nanobots patrolling our entire body system and detect anything abnormal in it, other than the immune system from out very own body.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:29 am

c933103 wrote:
Derico wrote:
I've always wondered why can we now detect exoplanets in faraway GALAXIES, catch minute traces of DNA in 100,000 year old fossilized bone, have machines that detect elementary particles which exist for merely just fractions of a plank second (and are a fraction the size of an atom), but we still can't have 100% accurate and immediate results as to whether any foreign DNA / RNA is in a human system.

This whole problem would have been almost resolved by now and all borders reopened if the tests could be guaranteed and immediate. It's a puzzle as to why our detection methods are so far behind in this area.

It wasn't even a quarter of century ago that human decode out own genome for the first time, through multi year collaborative effort.
That we are now doing thousands and thousands of genome sequencing of the virus RNA around the world, *every day*, to track its mutation and evolution, is already something that cannot even be imagined back then.
But the main obstacle to detection now is sampling. Viruses can only be sampled after they've reproduced in sufficiently large quantity at the location we rake sample for the tests to pick up the signal of their existence.
We still do not have any nanobots patrolling our entire body system and detect anything abnormal in it, other than the immune system from out very own body.


And in comparison it is now over 52 years ago the first man walked on the moon, and he came back safely.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:28 am

Toenga wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Derico wrote:
I've always wondered why can we now detect exoplanets in faraway GALAXIES, catch minute traces of DNA in 100,000 year old fossilized bone, have machines that detect elementary particles which exist for merely just fractions of a plank second (and are a fraction the size of an atom), but we still can't have 100% accurate and immediate results as to whether any foreign DNA / RNA is in a human system.

This whole problem would have been almost resolved by now and all borders reopened if the tests could be guaranteed and immediate. It's a puzzle as to why our detection methods are so far behind in this area.

It wasn't even a quarter of century ago that human decode out own genome for the first time, through multi year collaborative effort.
That we are now doing thousands and thousands of genome sequencing of the virus RNA around the world, *every day*, to track its mutation and evolution, is already something that cannot even be imagined back then.
But the main obstacle to detection now is sampling. Viruses can only be sampled after they've reproduced in sufficiently large quantity at the location we rake sample for the tests to pick up the signal of their existence.
We still do not have any nanobots patrolling our entire body system and detect anything abnormal in it, other than the immune system from out very own body.


And in comparison it is now over 52 years ago the first man walked on the moon, and he came back safely.

Deciphering the human body and any potential biological threat to it continues to be far more challenging than planning a trip to the moon and probably Mars as well. I think a big part of that challenge is a result of the fragility and the delicate nature of the human body. Maybe someday we’ll have nanobots or some other technology that will achieve the level of medical surveillance necessary to detect biological threats as soon as they reach your body or begin forming within.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:17 am

Toenga wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Derico wrote:
I've always wondered why can we now detect exoplanets in faraway GALAXIES, catch minute traces of DNA in 100,000 year old fossilized bone, have machines that detect elementary particles which exist for merely just fractions of a plank second (and are a fraction the size of an atom), but we still can't have 100% accurate and immediate results as to whether any foreign DNA / RNA is in a human system.

This whole problem would have been almost resolved by now and all borders reopened if the tests could be guaranteed and immediate. It's a puzzle as to why our detection methods are so far behind in this area.

It wasn't even a quarter of century ago that human decode out own genome for the first time, through multi year collaborative effort.
That we are now doing thousands and thousands of genome sequencing of the virus RNA around the world, *every day*, to track its mutation and evolution, is already something that cannot even be imagined back then.
But the main obstacle to detection now is sampling. Viruses can only be sampled after they've reproduced in sufficiently large quantity at the location we rake sample for the tests to pick up the signal of their existence.
We still do not have any nanobots patrolling our entire body system and detect anything abnormal in it, other than the immune system from out very own body.


And in comparison it is now over 52 years ago the first man walked on the moon, and he came back safely.

Having a man walk on the moon and come back safely only need to concern about three main objects: The earth, the moon, and the spaceship. The calculation was even doable by hands, albeit complex.
Compares to the environment within human body where there are thousands if not millions of things interacting with each others.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:44 pm

I want to add to the man on the moon analogy. Good testing requires developing and then mass production of kits. The sequencing requires further equipment and training, so it will always be done on a limited basis.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:46 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I want to add to the man on the moon analogy. Good testing requires developing and then mass production of kits. The sequencing requires further equipment and training, so it will always be done on a limited basis.


Exactly - this is why the fraudster founder of Theranos is now on trial. These are not simple or easy processes to replicate and require many staff who live and breathe accuracy and precision.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:20 pm

I was really trying to illustrate how, what seems like some small tasks are in reality incredibly demanding. Depending on recently obtained extraordinarily detailed knowledge obtained from years of research, and then analysis by the recently obtained immense computing power.

This in contrast with what seems in contrast to be a huge task, that was accomplished now many years ago, with now crude capabilities.
Just the readily now used capability, to genomically sequence where each case fits in an infection chain, the who caught it off who, astounds me.

What does frustrate me though is archaic commercial and political systems that is now impeding the manufacture and delivery, of now proven very effective vaccines, to the whole world. This, when the whole world, would benifit immensely from universal deployment.
There is the capability there, it is just the lack of a will in some crucial segments that is missing
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:42 pm

The Australian Government has delayed the planned reopening of international borders to non-citizens and PRs for two weeks until more is known about Omicron. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-30/ ... /100660304

As well as being fully vaccinated with a nagtive PCr within 72 hours of departure, returning citizens and PRs must now test test on arrival and quarantine for 72 hours. Returnees from 9 southern African nation must quarantine for 14 days.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:29 am

Toenga wrote:
I was really trying to illustrate how, what seems like some small tasks are in reality incredibly demanding. Depending on recently obtained extraordinarily detailed knowledge obtained from years of research, and then analysis by the recently obtained immense computing power.

This in contrast with what seems in contrast to be a huge task, that was accomplished now many years ago, with now crude capabilities.
Just the readily now used capability, to genomically sequence where each case fits in an infection chain, the who caught it off who, astounds me.

What does frustrate me though is archaic commercial and political systems that is now impeding the manufacture and delivery, of now proven very effective vaccines, to the whole world. This, when the whole world, would benifit immensely from universal deployment.
There is the capability there, it is just the lack of a will in some crucial segments that is missing

There is no easy increase in vaccine production increase. Each vaccine now has a team to bring each new line into service. It takes months and the whole time the team is trying to optimize existing lines and you cannot just train someone to do this. The recipe, patents, and ingredients could be given away, but it would end up taking just as long to figure out how to produce the vaccine without taking that team supporting production.

However, that team is also working to keep production going in existing plants. It is more than a system.

Take moderna in South Korea, that took much more help to get it working than anyone anticipated:
Announced in May:
https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-05-22/

Production issues through July:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-07-26/

Production only accepted end of October:
https://news.trust.org/item/20211026033040-y0cle

Moderna planned two new production lines in the USA back in June, to my knowledge, they still are not producing due to the South Korea production "distraction."
https://news.yahoo.com/moderna-plans-ex ... 16628.html

We've seen this with AZ in Thailand, with AZ coming back to help boost production to the levels it should be:
https://aseannow.com/topic/1237836-astr ... t-16949205

Need I mention the J&J production issues? Started as a bad April 1st joke and is still ongoing:
https://www.cnet.com/health/johnson-joh ... on-issues/

Project Warpspeed directly impacted aerospace as many of our vendors were prioritized to make valves for vaccine production and solve little issues, cooling of the vaccines. It was, in my opinion, a war time effort to get the vaccines out quickly.

Its frustrating. We had a thread start 10 months ago over the EU's vaccine strategy and the issues getting production going:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1457267

Capitalism is the fastest way to produce something quickly, in my opinion. There are numerous vaccines any country could make today such as SinoVac or AZ. It is amazing they reduced batch production time from the original 110 days per batch, then to 60 (probably less now, I didn't find a link):
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/ ... 371693001/

I have friends supporting vaccine production and manufacturing engineering consultants. The hours are burnout crazy. It is the small team of people who can setup and optimize a new line that is the limit on production.

More countries needed to invest heavy in production. That didn't happen. A sad event. Obviously the COVAX donations must increase:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cova ... IN~HKG~IRL

If countries want vaccines, produce AZ. Produce Covaxin. Produce SinoVac. They're available and effective. Going for the most complex without the knowledge base on how to produce will have more issues than J&J production.

Lightsaber
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:17 am

lightsaber wrote:
Capitalism is the fastest way to produce something quickly, in my opinion.


It's also the surest way to ensure that something is not distributed equally... ;)

Omicron is exactly why we should focus on vaccinating the World before selfishly worrying about vaccinating within our own borders only.
As proven by the knee-jerk chorus of pointless border closures every time a new variant comes out and throws the World into another paranoid frenzy, Covid is a global issue that will only be solved by a global effort.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:54 am

In reply to both lightsabre and Francoflier.
These are very very broad and personal observations so forgive me.
Pure US style capitalism has huge strengths in spotting emerging technologies and then commercialising them. And then ushering them expeditiously through regulatory processes, and before getting them to market and selling them to the world.

For this we have to thank executives from Pfizer recognising the work done by a couple from Turkey in Germany working for a much smaller company BioNtech to bring us the Comirnanty vaccine in an astonishly short time.

But that gung ho capitalism also has its shortcomings. Implimentation is sometimes seriously ragged. It can be bedevilled by inconsistency. Evidence the fatal corners cut in Boeing 737 MAX , and then the Boeing 787 manufacture being unable to consistently meet it's manufacturing tolerances.

Elsewhere in the world there are different strengths. What they lack in innovation they can more then make up for in pedantic compliance to manufacturing standards. Japan did not build up its automotive industry on innovative products. Instead it built boring, but competant cars consistently well. You turned the key and they went, always, without drama or roadside assist ever, until you got rid of them.

The Indian pharmaceutical industry has built itself up to be the world's biggest, by making bog standard products consistently well at low prices.
Show them exactly what to do, and I am sure they could produce covid vaccines at consistently high quality, consistently.

So I think I am here with Francoflyer. There needs to be a more World view, to build on both the strengths but more importantly the needs of the entire world rather then one country, or one economic system
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:55 am

Toenga wrote:
What does frustrate me though is archaic commercial and political systems that is now impeding the manufacture and delivery, of now proven very effective vaccines, to the whole world. This, when the whole world, would benifit immensely from universal deployment.
There is the capability there, it is just the lack of a will in some crucial segments that is missing

Most of the currenty available vaccines are already being license-produced in most countries around the world, either by individually negotiated agreements or through WHO platform.
But the capacity isn't enough. Current worldwide capacity of vaccine production is over 1 billion dose per month, yet with global population approaching 8 billions and at least two doses being needed for each individuals, there aren't enough production capacity.
Francoflier wrote:
It's also the surest way to ensure that something is not distributed equally... ;)

Omicron is exactly why we should focus on vaccinating the World before selfishly worrying about vaccinating within our own borders only.
As proven by the knee-jerk chorus of pointless border closures every time a new variant comes out and throws the World into another paranoid frenzy, Covid is a global issue that will only be solved by a global effort.

What does "equally" mean here?
Shouldn't Europe be the current focus of vaccination effort if the goal is to control the global outbreak, given Europe's much higher case rate than rest of the world and facing medical system capacity limit, unlike a number of countries with lower HDI?
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:53 pm

c933103 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
What does frustrate me though is archaic commercial and political systems that is now impeding the manufacture and delivery, of now proven very effective vaccines, to the whole world. This, when the whole world, would benifit immensely from universal deployment.
There is the capability there, it is just the lack of a will in some crucial segments that is missing

Most of the currenty available vaccines are already being license-produced in most countries around the world, either by individually negotiated agreements or through WHO platform.
But the capacity isn't enough. Current worldwide capacity of vaccine production is over 1 billion dose per month, yet with global population approaching 8 billions and at least two doses being needed for each individuals, there aren't enough production capacity.
Francoflier wrote:
It's also the surest way to ensure that something is not distributed equally... ;)

Omicron is exactly why we should focus on vaccinating the World before selfishly worrying about vaccinating within our own borders only.
As proven by the knee-jerk chorus of pointless border closures every time a new variant comes out and throws the World into another paranoid frenzy, Covid is a global issue that will only be solved by a global effort.

What does "equally" mean here?
Shouldn't Europe be the current focus of vaccination effort if the goal is to control the global outbreak, given Europe's much higher case rate than rest of the world and facing medical system capacity limit, unlike a number of countries with lower HDI?


The challenge with Europe is that current vaccine demand appears to be met. Yes, higher rates would likely improve outcomes, but the vaccaintion rate isn't supply limited.

Much of Africa and significant portion of South America is supply limited, both in terms of vaccines and delivery options for those vaccines.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:53 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
The challenge with Europe is that current vaccine demand appears to be met. Yes, higher rates would likely improve outcomes, but the vaccaintion rate isn't supply limited.

Much of Africa and significant portion of South America is supply limited, both in terms of vaccines and delivery options for those vaccines.

Pretty sure the vaccines that aren't being used in Europe are being moved to other countries through both market force and government pushes
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:20 pm

c933103 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
The challenge with Europe is that current vaccine demand appears to be met. Yes, higher rates would likely improve outcomes, but the vaccaintion rate isn't supply limited.

Much of Africa and significant portion of South America is supply limited, both in terms of vaccines and delivery options for those vaccines.

Pretty sure the vaccines that aren't being used in Europe are being moved to other countries through both market force and government pushes


Yes, Australia bought 400k doses from Poland a little while back.

But the need in developing countries remains higher than available supply.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:06 am

Kent350787 wrote:

Yes, Australia bought 400k doses from Poland a little while back.

But the need in developing countries remains higher than available supply.


And NZ bought some top up supply of Pfizer from Spain, and I think Denmark, for September delivery to supplement the delivery schedule direct from Pfizer, that month, when our very high vaccination rate threatened to outrun supply until the very large October deliveries.

What seems to be apparent is that until about 60% of the population is fully vaccinated the delta infection can spread relitively unconstrained.
At lower vaccination rates the effect is really only personal protection. Once about 75% of the population is fully vaccinated the effect on infection spread seems quite profound.

We saw that in NSW, where daily cases have dropped from a peak of over 1500 a day to about 200 a day. now in a population of about 8million?
Here in NZ we hopefully have started a similar decline as we approach 75% fully vaccinated.
VIC at similar levels seems to at least arrested a climb in case numbers.
All of this is pre Omicron of course.
Low case numbers have huge benefits. Less strain on health system, and a marked increase in contact tracing efficiency resulting in even less spread as people are alerted and requested/ordered to get tested and self isolate.

So there is some wisdom in securing supplies to get discrete, and bounded, populations right up to the high vaccination levels needed to really suppress transmission.

Update just now.
NZ has secured supplies and intends to commence vaccination of 5 to 11 year olds before the end of January.
This will make a huge difference in increasing the proportion of our population fully vaccinated from a previous ceiling of about 86% possible to about 95% possible.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:41 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Yes, Australia bought 400k doses from Poland a little while back.

But the need in developing countries remains higher than available supply.

With not enough manufacturing capacity, supply will continues to be unable to fulfill all the demand, no matter which distribution system you choose.
In such situation, it make sense for the limited resources to be directed to countries investing and manufacturing the vaccines, to encourage further investments, as well as to places where situation are most severe, to prevent the pandemic getting further out of control.
Coincidentally both of the two conditions points to directing the limited resource to EU and US
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:01 am

c933103 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Yes, Australia bought 400k doses from Poland a little while back.

But the need in developing countries remains higher than available supply.

With not enough manufacturing capacity, supply will continues to be unable to fulfill all the demand, no matter which distribution system you choose.
In such situation, it make sense for the limited resources to be directed to countries investing and manufacturing the vaccines, to encourage further investments, as well as to places where situation are most severe, to prevent the pandemic getting further out of control.
Coincidentally both of the two conditions points to directing the limited resource to EU and US


Given there is effectively excess supply in developed nations, possibly apart from third doses, I still don't see the logic of your position if the aim is to rid the world of this pandemic? Unless you are going to force vaccination and have insufficient supply, sell or give that excess to those who want it.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:20 am

c933103 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
It's also the surest way to ensure that something is not distributed equally... ;)

Omicron is exactly why we should focus on vaccinating the World before selfishly worrying about vaccinating within our own borders only.
As proven by the knee-jerk chorus of pointless border closures every time a new variant comes out and throws the World into another paranoid frenzy, Covid is a global issue that will only be solved by a global effort.

What does "equally" mean here?
Shouldn't Europe be the current focus of vaccination effort if the goal is to control the global outbreak, given Europe's much higher case rate than rest of the world and facing medical system capacity limit, unlike a number of countries with lower HDI?


Not distributed equally means that the system naturally concentrate products and commodities where there is more concentration of wealth. In this instance, it means that vaccines have naturally 'flowed' into wealthy nations much faster than they have in poorer ones.
That's how it works for everything, but in this particular instance and by virtue of the nature of the virus/threat, it can be a self-defeating mechanism.

As for Europe, it already has been vaccinated. There is no shortage of vaccine there and there hasn't been one for months. The issue there and in the US is low uptake, not availability.
Yet, despite the relatively low vaccination figures, we can see that the current waves there are much, much less deadly than the previous ones.

As for Europe's case rate vs. poorer nations, I'd be very careful with reported figures. Whereas Europe and the rest of the developed World will test and report to a high level, it is very much not the case for poorer nations.
If you think Zimbabwe is a safer pace to be for Covid than the Netherlands because their numbers are much lower, I have bad news for you...
The apparent low Covid numbers coming from those places has little to do with the actual prevalence of the virus.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:57 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Given there is effectively excess supply in developed nations, possibly apart from third doses, I still don't see the logic of your position if the aim is to rid the world of this pandemic? Unless you are going to force vaccination and have insufficient supply, sell or give that excess to those who want it.

The "excess" supply are being given to other nations. I fail to see the oint that a global centralized system is going to make any differences.

Francoflier wrote:
Not distributed equally means that the system naturally concentrate products and commodities where there is more concentration of wealth. In this instance, it means that vaccines have naturally 'flowed' into wealthy nations much faster than they have in poorer ones.
That's how it works for everything, but in this particular instance and by virtue of the nature of the virus/threat, it can be a self-defeating mechanism.

Why is this bad?
That those countries who invest, order, and manufacture vaccines first are getting their supplu first. This encourage other countries to ramp up their investment, ordering, and manufacturing capacity of vaccines.
As for Europe, it already has been vaccinated. There is no shortage of vaccine there and there hasn't been one for months. The issue there and in the US is low uptake, not availability.
Yet, despite the relatively low vaccination figures, we can see that the current waves there are much, much less deadly than the previous ones.

As for Europe's case rate vs. poorer nations, I'd be very careful with reported figures. Whereas Europe and the rest of the developed World will test and report to a high level, it is very much not the case for poorer nations.
If you think Zimbabwe is a safer pace to be for Covid than the Netherlands because their numbers are much lower, I have bad news for you...
The apparent low Covid numbers coming from those places has little to do with the actual prevalence of the virus.

If developing countries are having such a high case rate that they're reaching medical system breakdown, we'd hear it from news just as it was being reported for Latin America and India in the past. It's not the current situation there unlike US and Europe.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:57 pm

The omicron variant has ben found in California.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/first-confir ... 18322.html

“The California and San Francisco departments of public health and the CDC have confirmed that a recent case of COVID-19 among an individual in California was caused by Omicron variant,” Fauci said.

The individual was a fully vaccinated traveler who returned from South Africa on Nov. 22 and tested positive on Nov. 29, Fauci said. The person, who has not been publicly identified, is self-quarantining and experiencing mild symptoms, which Fauci said “appear to be improving.” Contact tracing has been conducted, Fauci added, and all of their close contacts have tested negative so far.

So it would appear travel restrictions aren't going to help that started on the 29th.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:59 pm

Omicron found in Minnesota by individual who had a trip to New York City:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/secon ... NewsSearch


That implies community spread is already happening.

Winter is coming...

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