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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:10 pm

The Minnesota case attended an Anime convention in NYC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/man-w ... NewsSearch


Scooby says rhoo rhoo
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The Minnesota case attended an Anime convention in NYC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/man-w ... NewsSearch


Scooby says rhoo rhoo



Yep. So much for Travel bans. It is now a question of whether it beats out Delta or not,
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:59 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The Minnesota case attended an Anime convention in NYC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/man-w ... NewsSearch


Scooby says rhoo rhoo



Yep. So much for Travel bans. It is now a question of whether it beats out Delta or not,


Is anyone seeing anything more on Omicron severity? In Australia we've only identified 8 cases to date - 7 adults and one child. All the adults have been fully vaccinated, the child too young to be vaccinated. 6 of the 8 adults have been asymptomatic (returned traveller identified via surveillance testing), and the other adult and child had ":sniffles" (term used in the media).
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:12 am

Kent350787 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The Minnesota case attended an Anime convention in NYC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/man-w ... NewsSearch


Scooby says rhoo rhoo



Yep. So much for Travel bans. It is now a question of whether it beats out Delta or not,


Is anyone seeing anything more on Omicron severity? In Australia we've only identified 8 cases to date - 7 adults and one child. All the adults have been fully vaccinated, the child too young to be vaccinated. 6 of the 8 adults have been asymptomatic (returned traveller identified via surveillance testing), and the other adult and child had ":sniffles" (term used in the media).

South Africa is seeing hospitalizations:
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/8 ... frica/amp/

135 to 418 over the past 14 days – confirming fears that it could be more transmissible.

Cases doubled in a day:
https://www.stltoday.com/news/world/sou ... 504d9.html

Unfortunately, this is an unknown. The worrying bit is all the really young kids going into the hospital. 10% of hospitalized are toddlers:
https://gulfnews.com/amp/world/africa/c ... 1.84075071

Lightsaber
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:48 am

lightsaber wrote:
The worrying bit is all the really young kids going into the hospital. 10% of hospitalized are toddlers:
https://gulfnews.com/amp/world/africa/c ... 1.84075071

Lightsaber

That’s 10% of ALL hospital admissions, not COVID hospitalizations.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:57 am

lightsaber wrote:
The Minnesota case attended an Anime convention in NYC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/man-w ... NewsSearch


Scooby says rhoo rhoo


This native New Yorker would like to take this opportunity to offer a belated welcome to our Omicron overlords and make this heartfelt request that you treat us mildly, especially those of us who are vaccinated and boosted.
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:14 am

We have probably the largest outbreak outside S-Africa in my town, with 60 people infected at one restaurant/company christmas party last weekend alone. (Of 120 guests)
So far no one has more than light illness, but these where young to middle aged people at a company gathering and everyone was probably vaccinated.
(Source: NRK, Aftenposten)
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 03, 2021 2:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Yep. So much for Travel bans. It is now a question of whether it beats out Delta or not,


Is anyone seeing anything more on Omicron severity? In Australia we've only identified 8 cases to date - 7 adults and one child. All the adults have been fully vaccinated, the child too young to be vaccinated. 6 of the 8 adults have been asymptomatic (returned traveller identified via surveillance testing), and the other adult and child had ":sniffles" (term used in the media).

South Africa is seeing hospitalizations:
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/8 ... frica/amp/

135 to 418 over the past 14 days – confirming fears that it could be more transmissible.

Cases doubled in a day:
https://www.stltoday.com/news/world/sou ... 504d9.html

Unfortunately, this is an unknown. The worrying bit is all the really young kids going into the hospital. 10% of hospitalized are toddlers:
https://gulfnews.com/amp/world/africa/c ... 1.84075071

Lightsaber


Based on all the reports, it looks like Omicron has been around quite a bit longer than we thought, and is already in more places than travel bans will help out in. It is in 5 states from NY to HI and it is highly likely that there are other states in between.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/omicro ... 021-12-02/

New York has confirmed five cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant, its governor said on Thursday, bringing to five the number of U.S. states having detected the variant, with 10 reported infections nationwide.

California, Colorado and Minnesota have found cases of the coronavirus variant among patients who were fully vaccinated and developed mild symptoms, while Hawaii reported a case with an unvaccinated person, who had moderate symptoms.



This should lead to an increase in booster pushing if preliminary reports are correct that they are still effective.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/health/covid-booster-shots-mix-and-match.html



Antibodies and T cell levels increased in people who received a Covid-19 booster shot compared with those who got the meningitis vaccine. The range was quite large, however. People who got the Valneva booster after a Pfizer vaccine saw only a 30 percent increase above the control group. But a Moderna booster produced at least a 1,000 percent increase.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:57 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The worrying bit is all the really young kids going into the hospital. 10% of hospitalized are toddlers:
https://gulfnews.com/amp/world/africa/c ... 1.84075071

Lightsaber

That’s 10% of ALL hospital admissions, not COVID hospitalizations.


I am friends with a few ER nurses who live in a city "Geulph, Ontario" (population approx 100,000) that essentially has 100% vaccination rate of eligible citizens.

She said that most of the people (especially the vaccinated) who their hospital has admitted with covid don't really need to be there but they got tested and it was confirmed positive and they went to the hospital.
Most hospitals are taking a degree of caution with covid patients because we know that mild symptoms can lead to serious ones rather quickly.

However general hospitalizations don't necessarily tell the whole picture. ICU numbers in all demographics are more important to understand the severity.

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The Minnesota case attended an Anime convention in NYC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/man-w ... NewsSearch


Scooby says rhoo rhoo



Yep. So much for Travel bans. It is now a question of whether it beats out Delta or not,


Just like Covid was circulating globally for months before it was identified in Wuhan.
If the person who discovered it is correct and most of the cases are mild and its just as contagious as Delta then we want it to beat out Delta.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/fi ... -calm-down

Fingers crossed that this is the mutation that makes this virus endemic and moves us forward.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 04, 2021 3:17 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:

Is anyone seeing anything more on Omicron severity? In Australia we've only identified 8 cases to date - 7 adults and one child. All the adults have been fully vaccinated, the child too young to be vaccinated. 6 of the 8 adults have been asymptomatic (returned traveller identified via surveillance testing), and the other adult and child had ":sniffles" (term used in the media).

South Africa is seeing hospitalizations:
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/8 ... frica/amp/

135 to 418 over the past 14 days – confirming fears that it could be more transmissible.

Cases doubled in a day:
https://www.stltoday.com/news/world/sou ... 504d9.html

Unfortunately, this is an unknown. The worrying bit is all the really young kids going into the hospital. 10% of hospitalized are toddlers:
https://gulfnews.com/amp/world/africa/c ... 1.84075071

Lightsaber


Based on all the reports, it looks like Omicron has been around quite a bit longer than we thought, and is already in more places than travel bans will help out in. It is in 5 states from NY to HI and it is highly likely that there are other states in between.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/omicro ... 021-12-02/

New York has confirmed five cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant, its governor said on Thursday, bringing to five the number of U.S. states having detected the variant, with 10 reported infections nationwide.

California, Colorado and Minnesota have found cases of the coronavirus variant among patients who were fully vaccinated and developed mild symptoms, while Hawaii reported a case with an unvaccinated person, who had moderate symptoms.



This should lead to an increase in booster pushing if preliminary reports are correct that they are still effective.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/health/covid-booster-shots-mix-and-match.html



Antibodies and T cell levels increased in people who received a Covid-19 booster shot compared with those who got the meningitis vaccine. The range was quite large, however. People who got the Valneva booster after a Pfizer vaccine saw only a 30 percent increase above the control group. But a Moderna booster produced at least a 1,000 percent increase.

Boosters seem to help with T cell levels, thanks for the link. 30%... not worth it. 10X (a thousand percent), is definitely worth it. Bummer they will only deliver 700 to 800 million doses versus the previous predictions of 800 to 1000 million (1 billion) previously promised:
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5 ... n-for-2021

However, to be fair, earlier they only promised 600 million doses:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/moderna ... -year.html

My relative working the coronavirus ward in Colorado is in hell. 4 patients on palliative care. Palliative care means there is no longer a hope of saving the patient, it is all about a dignified death (a 3 opiate mix cocktail of morphine, fentanyl, and heroin as coronavirus is that painful). I wish people realized how many people were going into and detoxing from Heroin, pentanyl, and morphine addiction while in the hospital for coronavirus. There is a 5th patient they will have to decide this weekend (they as it takes 3 doctors to concur on palliative care). Only one is vaccinated (immunosuppressed, no hope), the others are all unvaccinated. Mostly obese (the 94 cm waist/37 inches is really the line of demarcation per my relative).
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53532228
Another measure of excess fat is waist size - men with a waist of 94cm or more and women with a waist of 80cm or more are more likely to develop obesity-related problems.

One more patient they'll have to decide upon this weekend. It sounds like they already know that patient cannot survive, but doctors just don't give up early.

Winter is coming. So is the flu:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

As I type this, 15.5% of deaths in the USA for the prior reporting period (ending November 27th) were for influenza, pneumonia, or Covid19. That is an insane sum.

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:53 am

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/ ... ron-cases/
Japan continues to found more Omicron from inbound travellers
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 10, 2021 3:40 pm

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... ed-tighten

Hong Kong government detected an Omicron case from an traveler from the United States

Seems to be an indicator of the extent of Omicron spread in the US
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Dec 12, 2021 7:10 am

Report from South Africa indicate children are becoming vulnerable to Omicron.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/covid ... -symptoms/
10% hospital admission are infants age between 0-2.
Rate of admission of kids age between 0-5 is now second only to the age group of people age 60+.
Vaccination probably isn't the cause given South Africa is only 30%1-dose vaccinated.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:53 am

c933103 wrote:
Report from South Africa indicate children are becoming vulnerable to Omicron.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/covid ... -symptoms/
10% hospital admission are infants age between 0-2.
Rate of admission of kids age between 0-5 is now second only to the age group of people age 60+.
Vaccination probably isn't the cause given South Africa is only 30%1-dose vaccinated.

Are there moves to push the approval of vaccines for infants anywhere?
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Dec 12, 2021 5:28 pm

art wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Report from South Africa indicate children are becoming vulnerable to Omicron.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/covid ... -symptoms/
10% hospital admission are infants age between 0-2.
Rate of admission of kids age between 0-5 is now second only to the age group of people age 60+.
Vaccination probably isn't the cause given South Africa is only 30%1-dose vaccinated.

Are there moves to push the approval of vaccines for infants anywhere?

https://www.uchealth.org/today/covid-19 ... -6-months/
There are ongoing clinical trials for those down to 6 months old
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:28 am

Interesting article on German hospital proposed limits on unvaccinated:
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/ge ... uxbndlbing

German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said on Monday that infection numbers are indeed declining, but no steps should be taken that would jeopardize the trend between now and Christmas, he wrote on Twitter.
...
Children from age 5 will start being vaccinated in Germany this week, with childrens' doctors' surgeries able to administer the jab, as well as larger vaccine centres.


No general lockdown required. They also are starting boosting earlier and debating mandatory vaccination, as well as starting child vaccinations. It appears the current measures in Germany are sufficient.

Lightsaber
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 14, 2021 2:30 am

NZ is still currently operating it's controlled managed isolation for overseas arrivals, with the next change not due till mid next month, when NZ passport holders will be able to isolate at home for 7 days instead.
The current internal covid control border surrounding Auckland is to be replaced at midnight tomorrow with just a requirement to hold a vaccination pass, or to have received a readily available and free rapid antigen test obtained within the previous 72 hours, to depart Auckland.
For most of NZ life is now remarkably free of any covid restrictions for fully vaccinated people. But Auckland by it's case numbers, and some regions with lower vaccination levels, are at the higher red setting, that basically allows restaurants to function near normally for fully vaccinated people, but not bars, and nightclubs because of remaining seated and density requirements.
Yesterday it was announced that Auckland, and all but one remaining area will join the rest of NZ in the more relaxed orange setting on Dec 30th.
The one area held back is because of the combination of low vaccination and a vulnerable population.

Todays case numbers 80, with the seven day rolling average of 90.
Just over two weeks ago cases were breaking the 200 mark, and in fact one day exceeded that being recorded by NSW.
Today NSW recorded 806 a 50% jump on a day earlier, which really reinforces the wisdom of here opening up only so cautiously.

Two takeaways from yesterday's press conference with the PM and our Director General of Health:

1/NZ is not currently intending reducing the 6 month gap between 2nd and 3rd shots.
With the vast bulk of 2nd shots having been administered in September, October, and November, the 6 month gap would ensure maximum immunity going into the very vulnerable winter season.
2/ from the PM is that the date of the next phase of the border reopening is not set in stone. It is the current intention, but if circumstances change, especially what we learn from the rapidly evolving Omicron situation, requires changes then they will be made.

Just looking at what is happening in the very equivalent NSW, at the moment shows keeping options open, is justified.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:21 am

Although cases are increasing in NSW and today's new case total is a big jump, both hospitalisations and ICU admissions continue their downward trend. It will be interesting to see how the case number increase impacts these important figures.

Omicron strain has had a significant impact and is reportedly a significant factor in the growing outbreak in NSW's second largest city, Newcastle. Based around two nightclubs over two nights last weekend, it is now over 200 cases.

NSW is an interesting test for vaccination impact, with almost 92% 12+ population vaccinated. Boosters are now available to those vaxxed 5 months ago, although there is a possibility this may be reduced further.
 
alanb976
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:19 am

The NSW cases are interesting. Everyone at the nightclubs should have been fully vaccinated, and likely within the last 4 months with Pfizer/Moderna. It seems surprising the number of cases caused by the two events. At face value it appears the vaccines aren't doing a great job at stopping infections with Omicron.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:27 am

lightsaber wrote:
Hostility in ICUs:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

As the delta variant rages, COVID-19 patients are younger and more hostile, many believing they are part of an evil conspiracy theory in which doctors and hospitals, not the coronavirus, kill people.

So what do these people do? Do they try to persuade the doctors to stop harming them and to start helping them?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:17 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Hostility in ICUs:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

As the delta variant rages, COVID-19 patients are younger and more hostile, many believing they are part of an evil conspiracy theory in which doctors and hospitals, not the coronavirus, kill people.

So what do these people do? Do they try to persuade the doctors to stop harming them and to start helping them?

I know one doctor has "traded" patients will the prison hospital, taking on patients that do not require guards while the prison treats the antagonists under guard.

Doctors are there to help, that is why they join the profession. If you are asking for their services, you are their patient (the doctors set the rules). We have threads on FAs

viewtopic.php?t=1466275&start=50

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1466953
“Since the pandemic began, we’ve been seeing an increase in flight attendant assaults," Paul Hartshorn Jr., national communications chair for the Association of Professional Flight Attendants, told WFAA in October. "We’ve been seeing verbal assaults on our flight attendants every day, it’s safe to say, and physical attacks increasing.”

The threats of nurse assault is sufficient to have them quit, much less how much it really happens:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/23/americas ... index.html

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-11/ ... /100369452

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/violent-as ... -1.5659154

If patients go to the hospital, it is for proper medical care per the standards of care. If people want quack cures, go to a snake oil salesman, not a hospital.

If you think doctors would ever intentionally harm people, you do not know the type who goes into the profession.

Meh, it doesn't matter. Discipline has broken down. We are less well vaccinated in the USA than Europe, so we shall have an interesting winter.

I'm frustrated as my best friend's mom was just diagnosed with cancer and with 86% of Covid19 patients the unvaxed, they are the ones diverting resources and slowing treatment.

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:30 pm

alanb976 wrote:
The NSW cases are interesting. Everyone at the nightclubs should have been fully vaccinated, and likely within the last 4 months with Pfizer/Moderna. It seems surprising the number of cases caused by the two events. At face value it appears the vaccines aren't doing a great job at stopping infections with Omicron.

The 2 dose regimen of Pfizer is 23% effective preventing illness (1st link) and 70% effective keeping someone out of the hospital (2nd link):
https://time.com/6127710/omicron-pfizer/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... uxbndlbing

Boosters are 75% effective vs. symptomatic infection:
https://news.yahoo.com/booster-shots-75 ... 30222.html

Boosters are doing a great job keeping people out of the hospital, this study says boosters 95% effective against serious illness:
https://news.sanfordhealth.org/coronavi ... t-spreads/

It is my opinion everyone will be exposed to Omicron. The best description I've heard of vaccination:
1. First dose is elementary school, an introduction.
2. 2nd dose is high school. An education, but not ready for the full real world.
3. 3rd dose is college, a broader understanding, but not perfect.

If someone gets the sniffles, so what? It is the poor overloaded medical staff who need a break. Reducing their workload 95% is excellent.

Lightsaber
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:13 pm

We had 140 vaccinated people get Omicron in a superspreader event at one nightclub almost 3 weeks ago, so this has been known since the first few days it showed up.
However it seems like none of them got seriously ill.
(Sorces: NRK, Aftenposten, FHI)

alanb976 wrote:
The NSW cases are interesting. Everyone at the nightclubs should have been fully vaccinated, and likely within the last 4 months with Pfizer/Moderna. It seems surprising the number of cases caused by the two events. At face value it appears the vaccines aren't doing a great job at stopping infections with Omicron.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:41 am

https://fortune.com/2021/12/14/britain- ... pot-covid/
As the article cited,
“Omicron is indeed very infectious and seems to be spreading more rapidly in the U.K. than in South Africa,” Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said about Omicron’s rise. He added that the latest R number in South Africa is about 2.2, while in the U.K. this figure is estimated at 3.7, which indicates a doubling every two to three days.

And one third of cases in the entire UK are now Omicron.
 
CometII
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:08 am

lightsaber wrote:
alanb976 wrote:
The NSW cases are interesting. Everyone at the nightclubs should have been fully vaccinated, and likely within the last 4 months with Pfizer/Moderna. It seems surprising the number of cases caused by the two events. At face value it appears the vaccines aren't doing a great job at stopping infections with Omicron.

The 2 dose regimen of Pfizer is 23% effective preventing illness (1st link) and 70% effective keeping someone out of the hospital (2nd link):
https://time.com/6127710/omicron-pfizer/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... uxbndlbing

Boosters are 75% effective vs. symptomatic infection:
https://news.yahoo.com/booster-shots-75 ... 30222.html

Boosters are doing a great job keeping people out of the hospital, this study says boosters 95% effective against serious illness:
https://news.sanfordhealth.org/coronavi ... t-spreads/

It is my opinion everyone will be exposed to Omicron. The best description I've heard of vaccination:
1. First dose is elementary school, an introduction.
2. 2nd dose is high school. An education, but not ready for the full real world.
3. 3rd dose is college, a broader understanding, but not perfect.

If someone gets the sniffles, so what? It is the poor overloaded medical staff who need a break. Reducing their workload 95% is excellent.

Lightsaber


With all this booster talk, I still quire not understand, do you now need three vaccines to be protected? What I mean is, let's imagine someone NOT vaccinated yet decides to get vaccinated. Will the original two vaccines still protect you from serious illness? My confusion is whether if a person getting the original two doses today will have the same strong immunity as someone who got a booster (whose immunity was waning), or is the boosted person significantly more protected than the person with the fresh batch of two vaccines.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:33 am

CometII wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
alanb976 wrote:
The NSW cases are interesting. Everyone at the nightclubs should have been fully vaccinated, and likely within the last 4 months with Pfizer/Moderna. It seems surprising the number of cases caused by the two events. At face value it appears the vaccines aren't doing a great job at stopping infections with Omicron.

The 2 dose regimen of Pfizer is 23% effective preventing illness (1st link) and 70% effective keeping someone out of the hospital (2nd link):
https://time.com/6127710/omicron-pfizer/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... uxbndlbing

Boosters are 75% effective vs. symptomatic infection:
https://news.yahoo.com/booster-shots-75 ... 30222.html

Boosters are doing a great job keeping people out of the hospital, this study says boosters 95% effective against serious illness:
https://news.sanfordhealth.org/coronavi ... t-spreads/

It is my opinion everyone will be exposed to Omicron. The best description I've heard of vaccination:
1. First dose is elementary school, an introduction.
2. 2nd dose is high school. An education, but not ready for the full real world.
3. 3rd dose is college, a broader understanding, but not perfect.

If someone gets the sniffles, so what? It is the poor overloaded medical staff who need a break. Reducing their workload 95% is excellent.

Lightsaber


With all this booster talk, I still quire not understand, do you now need three vaccines to be protected? What I mean is, let's imagine someone NOT vaccinated yet decides to get vaccinated. Will the original two vaccines still protect you from serious illness? My confusion is whether if a person getting the original two doses today will have the same strong immunity as someone who got a booster (whose immunity was waning), or is the boosted person significantly more protected than the person with the fresh batch of two vaccines.


The evidence is of high protection after the second dose, with waning protection over the following 6 months, although the drop in protection after 3 months may be significant in some high infection areas.

The booster lifts it back to the earlier high coverage and may resiste the decline (although insufficient data yet to make that call)
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 12:18 pm

The 6 months gap for third dose booster being advised before Omicron become a thing is that, antibody level in one's body do not sustain for long after initial 2-dose vaccinations, and real world data show it lead to increase in hospitalization and such among early vaccinated, thus additional shots are needed for those initially vaccinated groups. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... ed-to-know


The problem here with Omicron is that, as according to UK briefing document and South African news source I linked in the vaccine thread, the vaccine antibody capability will drop 20-40 times against Omicron compares to the original variant, and then with booster providing ~25x boost in antibody quantity, it can offset the reduction in capability, as mentioned in the Pfizer press release I linked in the vaccine thread.

Hence, two-dose vaccinated doesn't appears to be sufficient to protect one against Omicron even if they're freshly vaccinated. In fact, as I linked in the vaccine thread, a study of 78000 infected South African shows that 2-dose vaccine only have 33% efficiency against infection and only 70% efficiency against hospitalization, and that is with South Africa having relative less vaccine supply hence most of the people vaccinated were being vaccinated in the past 4 months hence they're mostly freshly vaccinated https://covidvax.live/location/zaf

However, it is important to remember that, vaccines provide protection not just in form of antibody but also by letting the viral antigen be remembered by the Memory T Cell. See also the Pfizer press release I mentioned for source of that.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 12:48 pm

https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/wo ... a-20211208
Australia found a case from South Africa, which have some significant feature from Omicron but only half the amount of genetic variation, making it impossible to use the quick PCR screening based on S-gene drop out to track person infected with this Omicron-like variant, complicating the data gathering process for math and statistics on how Omicron is performing versus other variants.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:01 pm

c933103 wrote:
In fact, as I linked in the vaccine thread, a study of 78000 infected South African shows that 2-dose vaccine only have 33% efficiency against infection and only 70% efficiency against hospitalization


Another study showed the hospitalisation rate of Omicron in South Africa was about 1/3rd of Delta and Beta.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/14/worl ... study.html

How can this translate to a 70% efficiency against hospitalisation with Pfizer against Omicron if Pfizer was 90%+ efficiency against hospitalisation against Delta?

Medicos on the ground in South Africa don’t seem too concerned with Omicron, nor to SA health authorities, and that’s with 23% vaccinated. Other nations with much higher vaccination rates are panicking, unnecessarily it seems.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:15 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
In fact, as I linked in the vaccine thread, a study of 78000 infected South African shows that 2-dose vaccine only have 33% efficiency against infection and only 70% efficiency against hospitalization


Another study showed the hospitalisation rate of Omicron in South Africa was about 1/3rd of Delta and Beta.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/14/worl ... study.html

How can this translate to a 70% efficiency against hospitalisation with Pfizer against Omicron if Pfizer was 90%+ efficiency against hospitalisation against Delta?

Medicos on the ground in South Africa don’t seem too concerned with Omicron, nor to SA health authorities, and that’s with 23% vaccinated. Other nations with much higher vaccination rates are panicking, unnecessarily it seems.

The NYT article also mentioned the same data I cited.
> The efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine seemed to wane, decreasing immunity to just 33 percent during the Omicron wave from 80 percent in September and October after the Delta wave had subsided, the study found.
> Still, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine’s efficacy against severe illness and hospitalization was about 70 percent after two doses, the study found.

Hospitalization rate of a variant = (number of patient hospitalized / total number of patient)
Efficiency rate of an vaccine against an variant = (Hospitalization rate of a variant, among vaccinated)/(Hospitalization rate of a variant, among unvaccinated)
So there aren't contradiction between the two.
 
TriJets
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:21 pm

Hospitalized COVID cases have doubled and COVID patients in the ICU have tripled at my hospital (southeastern US). 9+ hour wait for the Emergency Department currently.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:31 pm

Here is the number of Asymptomatic cases. It gives a pretty good reason why when we find a case, it usually means there are a lot of unknown cases.

40% are Asymptomatic.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 495693001/

More than 60% of confirmed COVID-19 cases among people under 20 were asymptomatic; nearly 50% in people 20 to 39; about 32% in people 40 to 59, and about 33% in those over 60.


Most people unless in a testing program don't get tested if they don't feel sick.

“If we had a more comprehensive testing program that sampled everyone in an unbiased way, we would pick up more (asymptomatic cases),” Wells said.

While 40% of COVID-19 infections overall were asymptomatic, they represented only .25% of the tested population.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:43 pm

casinterest wrote:
Here is the number of Asymptomatic cases. It gives a pretty good reason why when we find a case, it usually means there are a lot of unknown cases.

40% are Asymptomatic.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 495693001/

More than 60% of confirmed COVID-19 cases among people under 20 were asymptomatic; nearly 50% in people 20 to 39; about 32% in people 40 to 59, and about 33% in those over 60.


Most people unless in a testing program don't get tested if they don't feel sick.

“If we had a more comprehensive testing program that sampled everyone in an unbiased way, we would pick up more (asymptomatic cases),” Wells said.

While 40% of COVID-19 infections overall were asymptomatic, they represented only .25% of the tested population.


In a lot of places if you are deemed a contact of a confirmed infection then you are tested and if you did get it from them then that is finding some of infections that might not be found otherwise.

I think they are not mentioning how severe cases are which they should do. There are pros and cons to this, if more people have mild symptoms and are not symptomatic the less people take it seriously. However not being transparent about the actual severity of the cases makes many people (including myself who is vaccinated) doubt how effective the vaccines actually are or are those in public health trying to achieve an essentially impossible metric.

Saying you need a booster because of waning immunity means that the vaccines are not that effective. How this differs from the flu shot is that the strains of influenza are different each year that are put into the flu shot, this is the same booster.
 
777luver
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:46 am

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Here is the number of Asymptomatic cases. It gives a pretty good reason why when we find a case, it usually means there are a lot of unknown cases.

40% are Asymptomatic.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 495693001/

More than 60% of confirmed COVID-19 cases among people under 20 were asymptomatic; nearly 50% in people 20 to 39; about 32% in people 40 to 59, and about 33% in those over 60.


Most people unless in a testing program don't get tested if they don't feel sick.

“If we had a more comprehensive testing program that sampled everyone in an unbiased way, we would pick up more (asymptomatic cases),” Wells said.

While 40% of COVID-19 infections overall were asymptomatic, they represented only .25% of the tested population.


In a lot of places if you are deemed a contact of a confirmed infection then you are tested and if you did get it from them then that is finding some of infections that might not be found otherwise.

I think they are not mentioning how severe cases are which they should do. There are pros and cons to this, if more people have mild symptoms and are not symptomatic the less people take it seriously. However not being transparent about the actual severity of the cases makes many people (including myself who is vaccinated) doubt how effective the vaccines actually are or are those in public health trying to achieve an essentially impossible metric.

Saying you need a booster because of waning immunity means that the vaccines are not that effective. How this differs from the flu shot is that the strains of influenza are different each year that are put into the flu shot, this is the same booster.


False. Waning immunity does not mean vaccines are not as effective, the antibodies are still activate when it recognizes the virus. The media might have you think otherwise, but the vaccine still works, so to say it's not that effective is misleading. You still have protection
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:35 am

777luver wrote:

False. Waning immunity does not mean vaccines are not as effective, the antibodies are still activate when it recognizes the virus. The media might have you think otherwise, but the vaccine still works, so to say it's not that effective is misleading. You still have protection


Yes.

Antibodies are one thing, but it’s Memory T cells that are the key in this fight.

The Memory T cells “remember” the virus they were exposed to when vaccinated, and are ready to start producing antibodies straight away when they detect a Covid infection. They are also less affected by mutations which is why the vaccine is still very effective against hospitalisation and severe illness versus Omicron.

Now we just need to start concentrating less on case numbers and antibody levels and concentrating more on getting as many people vaccinated with the initial two dose regime.
 
777luver
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:55 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
777luver wrote:

False. Waning immunity does not mean vaccines are not as effective, the antibodies are still activate when it recognizes the virus. The media might have you think otherwise, but the vaccine still works, so to say it's not that effective is misleading. You still have protection


Yes.

Antibodies are one thing, but it’s Memory T cells that are the key in this fight.

The Memory T cells “remember” the virus they were exposed to when vaccinated, and are ready to start producing antibodies straight away when they detect a Covid infection. They are also less affected by mutations which is why the vaccine is still very effective against hospitalisation and severe illness versus Omicron.

Now we just need to start concentrating less on case numbers and antibody levels and concentrating more on getting as many people vaccinated with the initial two dose regime.


I agree. Case numbers really shouldn't matter in the media anymore. Let's focus on vaccinating as many people as we can in other countries
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:19 am

777luver wrote:
Case numbers really shouldn't matter in the media anymore. Let's focus on vaccinating as many people as we can in other countries

But the media like drama. Record case levels is dramatic and worthy of reporting. And people are very parochial - what happens on my patch is more important than what is happening on some far flung patch. I expect more importance to be accorded to increased vaccination in the already highly vaccinated countries than shipping vaccine off to countries with low levels of vaccination.

C'est la vie égoiste.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:25 pm

777luver wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Here is the number of Asymptomatic cases. It gives a pretty good reason why when we find a case, it usually means there are a lot of unknown cases.

40% are Asymptomatic.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 495693001/



Most people unless in a testing program don't get tested if they don't feel sick.



In a lot of places if you are deemed a contact of a confirmed infection then you are tested and if you did get it from them then that is finding some of infections that might not be found otherwise.

I think they are not mentioning how severe cases are which they should do. There are pros and cons to this, if more people have mild symptoms and are not symptomatic the less people take it seriously. However not being transparent about the actual severity of the cases makes many people (including myself who is vaccinated) doubt how effective the vaccines actually are or are those in public health trying to achieve an essentially impossible metric.

Saying you need a booster because of waning immunity means that the vaccines are not that effective. How this differs from the flu shot is that the strains of influenza are different each year that are put into the flu shot, this is the same booster.


False. Waning immunity does not mean vaccines are not as effective, the antibodies are still activate when it recognizes the virus. The media might have you think otherwise, but the vaccine still works, so to say it's not that effective is misleading. You still have protection


I know its false. I understand the full picture of immunity

However that level of immunity seems to be not enough for some of the public health experts which are now pushing 3rd doses and potentially a 4th (although I will admit that only came from the CEO of Pfizer).

Everything about this Omicron variant seems like it is following the course of how pandemics end. The virus is mutating to a milder more infectious state and people even the unvaccinated will likely get mild symptoms. Some will get it bad but that will happen with every infection.

The benefit to vaccination is that it likely accelerated what would have taken 5 years.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 16, 2021 4:05 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
777luver wrote:

False. Waning immunity does not mean vaccines are not as effective, the antibodies are still activate when it recognizes the virus. The media might have you think otherwise, but the vaccine still works, so to say it's not that effective is misleading. You still have protection


Yes.

Antibodies are one thing, but it’s Memory T cells that are the key in this fight.

The Memory T cells “remember” the virus they were exposed to when vaccinated, and are ready to start producing antibodies straight away when they detect a Covid infection. They are also less affected by mutations which is why the vaccine is still very effective against hospitalisation and severe illness versus Omicron.

Now we just need to start concentrating less on case numbers and antibody levels and concentrating more on getting as many people vaccinated with the initial two dose regime.


https://www.cancercenter.com/what-are-b ... vs-t-cells

You are talking about Memory B cell instead of Memory T Cell, when you talk about antibody production
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:38 pm

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/dfa54 ... 12e2910460
Japan: After house an Omicron case have been discovered from a traveler observing at home quarantine, a close-contact of the traveller have also been tested positive for coronavirus despite variant lineage yet to be identified. The close contact visited a large stadium to watch football matches while having mild symptom.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/0d419 ... 3378be4ba0
And a Japanese professor calculated based on overseas data that Omicron have about 4 times the effective reproduction number of Delta
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:29 pm

This is probably the right thread for it.
Norwegian Public Health institute report on Omicron super-spread event at restaurant November 30th resulting in a total of 145 people infected.
Report based on 80 cases stemming from one room in the restaurant out of 111 respondants:

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/conten ... onstatus-1
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:48 am

A number of Japanese workers in American military base at Okinawa confirmed infected with Omicron. The military base have a ~100-people sized infection cluster, but American military didn't check whether they're infected with Omicron.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/437e2 ... e517391e57
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:24 pm

Discussion by 2 MD's re: vitamin D in connection with COVID-19, if anyone is interested.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9h-XQm2qEY
 
av8tiongeek
Posts: 197
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Re: COVID-19 News and Reference Thread

Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:01 pm

Southwest CEO Gary Kelly test positive

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/southwe ... hiefs.html
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:56 pm

Some data analysis from the UK showing the hospitalisation numbers and an Omicron “spike” may be overinflated:

https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/ ... 02145?s=20

2/3rds of those tested positive in hospitals were admitted for non Covid reasons, and the chart in growth shows its matching the 2021 summer Delta wave which was quite manageable for the health system.

This news was drowned out by all the talk of lockdowns and panic over Omicron so I thought it necessary to post for some clarity
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:13 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Some data analysis from the UK showing the hospitalisation numbers and an Omicron “spike” may be overinflated:

https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/ ... 02145?s=20

2/3rds of those tested positive in hospitals were admitted for non Covid reasons, and the chart in growth shows its matching the 2021 summer Delta wave which was quite manageable for the health system.

This news was drowned out by all the talk of lockdowns and panic over Omicron so I thought it necessary to post for some clarity

That requires knowing if the Covid19 exacerbated the prior conditions. I suspect in a majority of cases, in particular heart trouble, strokes, miscarriages, and lung issues, that is the case.

My relative in the coronavirus wards has had to choose if a patient dies of coronavirus or cancer, you cannot fight both. Same with certain kidney diseases. In those cases, a clear coronavirus death as numerous had cancers that would have been a short hospitalization without Covid19 with the patient walking again within weeks.

So the stats are, in my opinion, as accurate as can be.

Lightsaber
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Dec 19, 2021 4:36 am

lightsaber wrote:
That requires knowing if the Covid19 exacerbated the prior conditions. I suspect in a majority of cases, in particular heart trouble, strokes, miscarriages, and lung issues, that is the case.


Uni suspect that but there’s no evidence of it. I would suspect that if Omicron is causing mostly mild symptoms, someone presents to a hospital because of a heart or pregnancy issue and then through routine testing tests positive, not coming in with classic Covid symptoms, then I would suspect their symptoms are so mild or asymptomatic they couldn’t have exacerbated their pre exisiting condition.

My relative in the coronavirus wards has had to choose if a patient dies of coronavirus or cancer, you cannot fight both. Same with certain kidney diseases. In those cases, a clear coronavirus death as numerous had cancers that would have been a short hospitalization without Covid19 with the patient walking again within weeks.


I’ve known people working in healthcare who’ve done that all the time, including pre pandemic. It’s a part of their job.

The good thing is data from South Africa has shown those resources won’t be stretched with omicron and a high level of immunity/vaccination so health staff won’t have to make those decisions as much.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:46 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
That requires knowing if the Covid19 exacerbated the prior conditions. I suspect in a majority of cases, in particular heart trouble, strokes, miscarriages, and lung issues, that is the case.


Uni suspect that but there’s no evidence of it. I would suspect that if Omicron is causing mostly mild symptoms, someone presents to a hospital because of a heart or pregnancy issue and then through routine testing tests positive, not coming in with classic Covid symptoms, then I would suspect their symptoms are so mild or asymptomatic they couldn’t have exacerbated their pre exisiting condition.

My relative in the coronavirus wards has had to choose if a patient dies of coronavirus or cancer, you cannot fight both. Same with certain kidney diseases. In those cases, a clear coronavirus death as numerous had cancers that would have been a short hospitalization without Covid19 with the patient walking again within weeks.


I’ve known people working in healthcare who’ve done that all the time, including pre pandemic. It’s a part of their job.

The good thing is data from South Africa has shown those resources won’t be stretched with omicron and a high level of immunity/vaccination so health staff won’t have to make those decisions as much.

The South Africa data claim ~0.3% hospitalization rate vs 1.3% for original variant. That'd be about 1/4. But with vaccine effect against hospitalization being 70% instead of 95+%, it mean vaccinated would see 6+ times less protections once infected. (~30% chance of breakthrough the protection and be hospitalized instead of <5%.) So overall it'd still be more dangerous to individuals who are only 2-dose vaccinated, despite still relatively low risk.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:44 pm

c933103 wrote:
The South Africa data claim ~0.3% hospitalization rate vs 1.3% for original variant. That'd be about 1/4. But with vaccine effect against hospitalization being 70% instead of 95+%, it mean vaccinated would see 6+ times less protections once infected. (~30% chance of breakthrough the protection and be hospitalized instead of <5%.) So overall it'd still be more dangerous to individuals who are only 2-dose vaccinated, despite still relatively low risk.


Well somewhere those stats are wrong, because data has shown South African hospital admission rates and times are lower with Omicron than Delta. That’s not just a theoretical guess using predictions of rates and severity, it’s actual recorded data during the wave which has already peaked.:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/africa/new ... 59gub.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/14/worl ... study.html

This is also backed up by plenty of anecdotal statements from doctors on the ground.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Dec 19, 2021 6:46 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
The South Africa data claim ~0.3% hospitalization rate vs 1.3% for original variant. That'd be about 1/4. But with vaccine effect against hospitalization being 70% instead of 95+%, it mean vaccinated would see 6+ times less protections once infected. (~30% chance of breakthrough the protection and be hospitalized instead of <5%.) So overall it'd still be more dangerous to individuals who are only 2-dose vaccinated, despite still relatively low risk.


Well somewhere those stats are wrong, because data has shown South African hospital admission rates and times are lower with Omicron than Delta. That’s not just a theoretical guess using predictions of rates and severity, it’s actual recorded data during the wave which has already peaked.:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/africa/new ... 59gub.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/14/worl ... study.html

This is also backed up by plenty of anecdotal statements from doctors on the ground.

Majority of South African population are still unvaccinated, which aren't the subject I'm talking about.

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