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M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:23 am

While not disagreeing, I’d just like to raise a couplenof points.
(Sorry for my english being even more broken than usual today, I’ve been talking a 3rd language for a few days. Messes it all up.)
Delta isn’t really lethal either per se, the virus is spread as normal, and the host dies later from follow-up complications of the immune response. Thus not being at an evolutionary disadvantage compared to non-lethal variants.

People might get infected by both. We might have a double pandemic. Omicron and Delta, that doesn’t outcompete each othe because people can get infected by both in a short amoubt of time. This eventuality had been raised by out health officials the last couple of weeks, but are, as far as I understand neither denied or confirmed yet by data. At least we can hope it has a certain reduction in severity across from some common immune response.

art wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Toenga wrote:
A question.
Does omricon displace delta, or do the two strains proceed in parallel?


I was asking myself the same.
I think we should get answers fairly quickly, since in many parts of North America and Europe, the Omicron wave is starting right in the middle of a Delta wave...
The Omicron will likely finish sooner than Delta would, so watching what happens next will be fascinating.

If they were to be mutually exclusive, I know I'd rather catch Omicron than Delta.

Why do you think that omicron is likely to finish sooner than delta? I do not understand why omicron, a more contagious variant (strong evidence for that) that is less likely to kill the host (evidence building for that) should not outperform and eliminate delta where both are present.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:28 am

c933103 wrote:
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/omicron-infections-no-less-severe-than-delta-early-study-suggests.html
Omicron infections no less severe than delta, early study suggests

[The] study assessed data from the U.K. Health Security Agency and U.K. health service for all PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infections in the area from Nov. 29-Dec. 11.

The study found hospitalization and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with omicron, suggesting limited changes in severity compared with delta.
---
While number of Omicron case in the UK in this time period is still relatively few as the article mentioned, thus the number of Omicron hospitalized patient are still limited for the analysis purpose, I think what it clearly show is that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of severity of Omicron being less before further data become available.

The study quoted by the news was Report 49 from Imperial College London.
In a more updated Report 50 from Imperial College London on the severity of Omicron in England, with data from Dec 1 to 14, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-i ... y-omicron/ ,

It noted, "we find evidence of a reduction in the risk of hospitalisation for Omicron relative to Delta infections, averaging over all cases in the study period. The extent of reduction is sensitive to the inclusion criteria used for cases and hospitalisation, being in the range 20-25% when using any attendance at hospital as the endpoint, and 40-45% when using hospitalisation lasting 1 day or longer or hospitalisations with the ECDS discharge field recorded as “admitted” as the endpoint",
However it also pointed out the, "These reductions must be balanced against the larger risk of infection with Omicron, due to the reduction in protection provided by both vaccination and natural infection."
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:02 am

Francoflier wrote:
Toenga wrote:
A question.
Does omricon displace delta, or do the two strains proceed in parallel?


I was asking myself the same.
I think we should get answers fairly quickly, since in many parts of North America and Europe, the Omicron wave is starting right in the middle of a Delta wave...
The Omicron will likely finish sooner than Delta would, so watching what happens next will be fascinating.

If they were to be mutually exclusive, I know I'd rather catch Omicron than Delta.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ing-33.pdf
p.20 of this UK government technical briefing document clearly shown Delta detection rate have fallen as Omicron pick up, at least in UK
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 24, 2021 4:13 pm

Pediatric hospitals are filling up in the USA, with about 800 admissions per day:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ations-us/

Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania and New York have been hit particularly hard. As of Thursday, there were 1,987 confirmed or suspected pediatric covid-19 patients hospitalized nationally, a 31 percent jump in 10 days, according to a Washington Post analysis.

...
Indeed, several studies, including a pair published this week from Scotland and England, suggest omicron is sending fewer people overall to the hospital — welcome news. But public health officials have been on high alert about one group, children under 5, who are the last group ineligible for vaccines in the United States. Earlier this month South Africa reported big jumps in hospital admissions for that age group. The accuracy and significance of the South African data is unclear, but on Thursday, the United Kingdom released data showing a bump in admissions for that age group, too. Hospital admissions ending Dec. 19 were at 3.64 per 100,000 for children ages 0 to 4 — three times the rate for those ages 5 to 14.


That implies a very short stay in the hospital for the children, but still scary for everyone involved..

Lightsaber
 
SRQLOT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 24, 2021 5:40 pm

There is a huge outbreak in Chicago going on right now. I visited my family there 2 weekends ago luckily as I couldn't make it for Christmas. My sister and at her small office almost 50% got it, her son's preschool also got shot down due to an outbreak last week. Now she, her bf and son, and my brother are unvaccinated in the house, and she has been in so much pain for the past few sleepless days/nights that she is afraid she won't make it. Her son and bf also now tested positive. If she does survive this she is making everyone in the house get vaccinated to live there. For some it has to get to that point to change their mind.

Luckily my mother has been vaccinated since the summer at my requests, and I have been since the beginning. She asked me not to travel at end of January for my godsons birthday, and she wont allow anyone to visit her house for at least the next few months. Honestly I'm not sure which way this outbreak is going to go so I decided to stay put at my job and not make any life changes I planned in the next few months. Ughhhh
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 24, 2021 7:12 pm

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ing-33.pdf

In the above UK HSA technical briefing #33 I note on p19:

37.0% of delta cases were aged 0-19; 14.6% of omicron
26.8% of delta cases were aged 20-39; 56.0% of omicron

To me that suggests that those aged 0-19 are more likely to catch delta while those aged 20-39 are more likely to catch omicron. Not so good for kids if disease is more acute with delta infection.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 12:24 am

South Africa has basically ended their pandemic response

No more quarantine for positive asymptomatic people and no more contact tracing.

Realising this illness is not overwhelming hospitals or causing significant fatalities and the response of locking up anyone who has been near a positive case is ridiculous as it’s causing more harm than good. Look at how airlines are cancelling flights due lack of staff because of ridiculous quarantine rules.

They’ve realised this is almost always no worse than a mild cold, and it’s time for other countries to follow.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/24/worl ... ntine.html
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 1:36 am

SRQLOT wrote:
Now she, her bf and son, and my brother are unvaccinated in the house, and she has been in so much pain for the past few sleepless days/nights that she is afraid she won't make it. Her son and bf also now tested positive. If she does survive this she is making everyone in the house get vaccinated to live there. For some it has to get to that point to change their mind.

First, my heartfelt wishes out to your sister and family. I hope they pull through will no long haul symptoms.

Tylenol, Aleve, and Ibuprofen can be mixed to reduce the pain. My older friends all agree that the worst part of the 1957 and 1969 flus was the fear they would live (those two flus were unusually painful). I'm sorry, coronavirus is worse.

To others to better describe the pain of coronavirus:
Now, when everyone says "just a flu" I wonder if they know how painful coronavirus is. My friends and relatives have never prescribes so many pain killers as the pain is so bad, patients lose the will to live. In fact, they went from Heroin (still the strongest pain killer) only for cancer patients at end of life to routinely having to give coronavirus patients a cocktail of fentanyl and heroin as that is the only way to reduce the pain enough to have the patients have a chance of recovering. For end of life, where a patient is brought to consciousness for the last few minutes, they need morphine, fentanyl, and heroin at overdose levels.

Have your sister seek care early. (It sounds like it is time.) High flow oxygen and remdesivir cut the illness time by a week and severity quite a bit too.

Oxygen helps, but people forget how painful being on oxygen can be (it dries out the lungs), in particular the life saving high flow oxygen.

Everyone I know who survived the 1957 and 1969 flus never went to the hospital, but none forget the pain. One swears it was far worse than cancer pain (a survivor of the 1957 flu). Coronavirus might not hospitalize someone, but for many the pain is extreme.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 1:42 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
South Africa has basically ended their pandemic response

No more quarantine for positive asymptomatic people and no more contact tracing.

Realising this illness is not overwhelming hospitals or causing significant fatalities and the response of locking up anyone who has been near a positive case is ridiculous as it’s causing more harm than good. Look at how airlines are cancelling flights due lack of staff because of ridiculous quarantine rules.

They’ve realised this is almost always no worse than a mild cold, and it’s time for other countries to follow.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/24/worl ... ntine.html

UK reports 70% fewer hospitalizations.
Since I've never even heard of someone hospitalized for the cold, I'd say this is more like the 1957 flu. That really bad painful flu. Not that much pain for everyone, but for some, just as bad, but not the 1918-1920 bad flu. But worse than any flu I've ever had (I stopped getting flus when I started having a flu shot every year in high school.)

Lightsaber
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 4:45 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
South Africa has basically ended their pandemic response

No more quarantine for positive asymptomatic people and no more contact tracing.

Realising this illness is not overwhelming hospitals or causing significant fatalities and the response of locking up anyone who has been near a positive case is ridiculous as it’s causing more harm than good. Look at how airlines are cancelling flights due lack of staff because of ridiculous quarantine rules.

They’ve realised this is almost always no worse than a mild cold, and it’s time for other countries to follow.

This will give other countries the opportunity to see what happens if omicron is treated as an annoyance rather than a serious threat.

If this approach proves beneficial, what is the chance of other countries desisting from a fixation on containing COVID-19 with little regard to the wider damage this causes?
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 4:51 am

art wrote:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043807/technical-briefing-33.pdf

In the above UK HSA technical briefing #33 I note on p19:

37.0% of delta cases were aged 0-19; 14.6% of omicron
26.8% of delta cases were aged 20-39; 56.0% of omicron

To me that suggests that those aged 0-19 are more likely to catch delta while those aged 20-39 are more likely to catch omicron. Not so good for kids if disease is more acute with delta infection.

I think that 20-39 being most prominent group of Omicron patient in the UK now is probably a result of they are more likely to travel internationally or interact with peers who have did so. Omicron was still more prominent among inbound travellers than local transmission from the graph until just few days ago. Give it a week or two before it start spreading.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 9:06 am

lightsaber wrote:

Since I've never even heard of someone hospitalized for the cold



Sometimes colds/flus get mixed up

There are those in a vulnerable state (infirm elderly mostly) who present to hospital with symptoms like fever and test positive to common cold causing viruses like rhinovirus

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4744574/

We’re almost at a point now where the majority of hospitalisations are in vulnerable cohorts. So enacting full scale testing for every contact of a case or those at exposure sites is overkill.

Testing should be limited to regular screening for at risk populations, and those presenting to hospitals with symptoms so treatment can be tailored. Testing for normal healthy adults who are vaccinated and will suffer either no or very mild symptoms is a waste of limited resources
 
yonahleung
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 10:02 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Since I've never even heard of someone hospitalized for the cold



Sometimes colds/flus get mixed up

There are those in a vulnerable state (infirm elderly mostly) who present to hospital with symptoms like fever and test positive to common cold causing viruses like rhinovirus

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4744574/

We’re almost at a point now where the majority of hospitalisations are in vulnerable cohorts. So enacting full scale testing for every contact of a case or those at exposure sites is overkill.

Testing should be limited to regular screening for at risk populations, and those presenting to hospitals with symptoms so treatment can be tailored. Testing for normal healthy adults who are vaccinated and will suffer either no or very mild symptoms is a waste of limited resources

China would tell you that the proper way to do it is to screen an entire city of 13 million every two days and then lock down the entire city when there are a hundred covid cases with no deaths. :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy: :bouncy:
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 12:00 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Since I've never even heard of someone hospitalized for the cold



Sometimes colds/flus get mixed up

There are those in a vulnerable state (infirm elderly mostly) who present to hospital with symptoms like fever and test positive to common cold causing viruses like rhinovirus

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4744574/

We’re almost at a point now where the majority of hospitalisations are in vulnerable cohorts. So enacting full scale testing for every contact of a case or those at exposure sites is overkill.

Testing should be limited to regular screening for at risk populations, and those presenting to hospitals with symptoms so treatment can be tailored. Testing for normal healthy adults who are vaccinated and will suffer either no or very mild symptoms is a waste of limited resources

Actually, child hospitalizations are shooting up. About 800 children per day in the USA going into the hospital.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ations-us/

Hospitalization is less, not zero and in areas already badly impacted by Delta, we aren't at the point yet we can back off.

Above noted the illness is hitting the ages less vaccinated.

I have many friends who work hospital critical care wards often have flu. I agree they often get mixed up, but there are rapid tests for influenza. That hospitalizes a lot of people every year, mostly the vulnerable.

Another study says the risk of hospitalization is only 40% to 45% lower than Delta. Since the medical staff is exhausted, we need another two or three weeks of patience until this wave burns itself out or enough are boosted. Due to the vertical increase in cases, a few more weeks of decent measures (2nd link). If cases are this high, in this case over double the peak Delta cases in the UK, we should expect a horrid surge of hospitalizations in a week or so. I hope to be proven wrong.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medica ... NewsSearch
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA


Lightsaber
 
SRQLOT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 1:18 pm

lightsaber wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
Now she, her bf and son, and my brother are unvaccinated in the house, and she has been in so much pain for the past few sleepless days/nights that she is afraid she won't make it. Her son and bf also now tested positive. If she does survive this she is making everyone in the house get vaccinated to live there. For some it has to get to that point to change their mind.

First, my heartfelt wishes out to your sister and family. I hope they pull through will no long haul symptoms.

Tylenol, Aleve, and Ibuprofen can be mixed to reduce the pain. My older friends all agree that the worst part of the 1957 and 1969 flus was the fear they would live (those two flus were unusually painful). I'm sorry, coronavirus is worse.

To others to better describe the pain of coronavirus:
Now, when everyone says "just a flu" I wonder if they know how painful coronavirus is. My friends and relatives have never prescribes so many pain killers as the pain is so bad, patients lose the will to live. In fact, they went from Heroin (still the strongest pain killer) only for cancer patients at end of life to routinely having to give coronavirus patients a cocktail of fentanyl and heroin as that is the only way to reduce the pain enough to have the patients have a chance of recovering. For end of life, where a patient is brought to consciousness for the last few minutes, they need morphine, fentanyl, and heroin at overdose levels.

Have your sister seek care early. (It sounds like it is time.) High flow oxygen and remdesivir cut the illness time by a week and severity quite a bit too.

Oxygen helps, but people forget how painful being on oxygen can be (it dries out the lungs), in particular the life saving high flow oxygen.

Everyone I know who survived the 1957 and 1969 flus never went to the hospital, but none forget the pain. One swears it was far worse than cancer pain (a survivor of the 1957 flu). Coronavirus might not hospitalize someone, but for many the pain is extreme.

Lightsaber



Thank you for the reply! Unfortunately it is bad, called my mother for the Christmas Eve dinner and she was crying. Unfortunately my sister is refusing to go to the hospital because that’s not where she will die.

I told her bf to get the blood oxygen reader and just take her to the ER if her oxygen gets low. She swears she had the original Covid in December of 19 before anyone knew what it was. She had body aches and lost her sense of smell back then. So she can’t believe that this one is so much worse. I’m not sure if she got Delta or the new one.

I told her this will be a yearly thing, just like the flu but worse and more throughout the year. We will have to probably get a vaccine every year like the flu shot, which I try to get every year anyway.

Now it’s just wait and see.

Oh on another note couple of people in my distant family in Chicago got the fake vaccine cards thinking they were slick and laughing about it. Well they too had Covid and bad. My mom said they just got their first shots.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 1:55 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
Now she, her bf and son, and my brother are unvaccinated in the house, and she has been in so much pain for the past few sleepless days/nights that she is afraid she won't make it. Her son and bf also now tested positive. If she does survive this she is making everyone in the house get vaccinated to live there. For some it has to get to that point to change their mind.

First, my heartfelt wishes out to your sister and family. I hope they pull through will no long haul symptoms.

Tylenol, Aleve, and Ibuprofen can be mixed to reduce the pain. My older friends all agree that the worst part of the 1957 and 1969 flus was the fear they would live (those two flus were unusually painful). I'm sorry, coronavirus is worse.

To others to better describe the pain of coronavirus:
Now, when everyone says "just a flu" I wonder if they know how painful coronavirus is. My friends and relatives have never prescribes so many pain killers as the pain is so bad, patients lose the will to live. In fact, they went from Heroin (still the strongest pain killer) only for cancer patients at end of life to routinely having to give coronavirus patients a cocktail of fentanyl and heroin as that is the only way to reduce the pain enough to have the patients have a chance of recovering. For end of life, where a patient is brought to consciousness for the last few minutes, they need morphine, fentanyl, and heroin at overdose levels.

Have your sister seek care early. (It sounds like it is time.) High flow oxygen and remdesivir cut the illness time by a week and severity quite a bit too.

Oxygen helps, but people forget how painful being on oxygen can be (it dries out the lungs), in particular the life saving high flow oxygen.

Everyone I know who survived the 1957 and 1969 flus never went to the hospital, but none forget the pain. One swears it was far worse than cancer pain (a survivor of the 1957 flu). Coronavirus might not hospitalize someone, but for many the pain is extreme.

Lightsaber



Thank you for the reply! Unfortunately it is bad, called my mother for the Christmas Eve dinner and she was crying. Unfortunately my sister is refusing to go to the hospital because that’s not where she will die.

I told her bf to get the blood oxygen reader and just take her to the ER if her oxygen gets low. She swears she had the original Covid in December of 19 before anyone knew what it was. She had body aches and lost her sense of smell back then. So she can’t believe that this one is so much worse. I’m not sure if she got Delta or the new one.

I told her this will be a yearly thing, just like the flu but worse and more throughout the year. We will have to probably get a vaccine every year like the flu shot, which I try to get every year anyway.

Now it’s just wait and see.

Oh on another note couple of people in my distant family in Chicago got the fake vaccine cards thinking they were slick and laughing about it. Well they too had Covid and bad. My mom said they just got their first shots.

Words are not adequate. I'm glad others in your family just had shots. Smart to use the blood oxygen meter.
I'm going to do suggestions as it sounds like your sister needs to be assessed by a doctor and is beyond internet advice from non-medical professionals. Would she consider going to urgent care? Getting steroids to breath easier and a few hours of oxygen might be a big difference. And if those doctors call an ambulance, you know it was truly needed. Hospitals save the vast majority of coronavirus patients. A few days of (painful as it dries out the lungs) high flow oxygen is really a miracle treatment. Plus IVs (hydration) and pain killers.

I know the above isn't that helpful, but early intervention helps.

Vaccines provide 5x the protection of prior exposure and we know that level of protection isn't sufficient. I know I'm "preaching to the choir", but the evidence is so starkly in favor of vaccination, I don't understand the debate.
https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ne ... protection

Unfortunately, Omicron just doesn't care as much about prior immunity (vaccine or natural), hence the need for boosters.

I want to end wishing your family good health. This must be a stressful time having to "witness" this from far away. Humans like to act and being far away prevents action, so just know the a.net community wishes you and yours good health.

Lightsaber
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 7:32 pm

Thanks lightsabre for your replies to posters on this thread, displaying both common sense, and very large doses of compassion.
Both attributes that are sorely needed to minimise the pain and damage that this horrible illness is causing everywhere.
Let us all hope for a much better 2022.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Dec 25, 2021 9:18 pm

Toenga wrote:
Thanks lightsabre for your replies to posters on this thread, displaying both common sense, and very large doses of compassion.
Both attributes that are sorely needed to minimise the pain and damage that this horrible illness is causing everywhere.
Let us all hope for a much better 2022.

Yes, let's hope for a better 2022 as I want to return 2020 and 2021 for a full refund.

Happy holidays to everyone. Enjoy the new year, just have a designated driver if you have a few tots to forget 2021.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:01 am

My relative in the hospital saw the first Omicron patients starting just over 3 days ago. It is very different than Delta. Not as life threatening. Just a miserable and messy gastrointestinal blowout (vomiting and diarrhea). Dehydration is an issue in incoming patients, but IVs fix that. Note: I'm not saying these are the common symptoms, this is the symptoms of those who must be admitted to the hospital. It is apparently immediately apparent from the obvious symptoms this isn't a prior strain of the virus to the hospitalists as while patients need oxygen, they are not seeing the respiratory "struggle" of prior variants. The required care is less intensive than Delta (albeit... messy).

Apparently all incoming patients are tested for:
1. Coronavirus
2. Influenza (and if influenza, more testing to find the exact type)
3. Rotavirus
And three other viruses that I didn't hear which ones they were, that could be causing the diarrhea.

These patients are recently admitted, but not showing the kidney issues of prior variants.
Initial thought is the cardio-pulminary impact on patients is less, but that can take weeks, other than atrial-fibrillation.

They are seeing multiple times more atrial-fibrillation with Omicron at this one hospital. Not immediately life threatening, but they are concerned that this common long haul symptom is now far more common. However, this is too soon to draw any conclusion (it might have just hit a population more susceptible to atrial-fibrillation). However, a major reason patients are being admitted.

All I could find is links noting atrial fibrillation is going up with coronavirus: https://bralowmedicalgroup.com/atrial-f ... d-omicron/

The above symptoms are for patients that were only positive to coronavirus. (Some patients do come in with multiple viruses which is extra miserable, but goes off topic for covid19.)

Overall, in the USA, hospitalizations are going up just a little. I speculate in part as the Delta cases haven't cleared out and we're seeing the initial rapid Omicron rush.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:06 am

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202112 ... 11000.html
Japan: 3 months after 2-dose vaccination, compared to Delta, neutralizing antibody generated for Omicron is 72% lower for Pfizer-vaccinated and 82% lower for Omicron-vaccinated
Such drop is still significant, but appears to be lesser of a drop than some of the overseas experiment result like those from UK I linked above.
Perhaps part of the reason why 2-dose vaccinated are that much more vulnerable to Omicron in Western countries is that most people only 2-dose vaccinated, were taking the vaccine earlier than a few months ago.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:42 am

Well, we're already starting to hear the idea of a FOURTH COVID shot being tossed around:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/omicron ... ected.html

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said Wednesday that people might need a fourth Covid-19 shot sooner than expected after preliminary research shows the new omicron variant can undermine protective antibodies generated by the vaccine the company developed with BioNTech.

“When we see real-world data, will determine if the omicron is well covered by the third dose and for how long. And the second point, I think we will need a fourth dose,” Bourla told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Bourla previously projected that a fourth shot would be needed 12 months after the third dose. “With omicron we need to wait and see because we have very little information. We may need it faster,” he said.


Israel has already started dishing out second booster shots. But just what is the endgame, exactly? I'm just imagining them changing the definition of "fully vaccinated" and as a result of the mandates everyone has to keep coming in every few months to get subsequent shots. Keep in mind that vaccinated individuals can catch/spread COVID and even before the vaccines over 99% of infected individuals survived. Another thing I would like answered is why can't natural immunity be a substitute to vaccination when it comes to these mandates? The reason usually given is "well, natural immunity isn't perfect", but clearly the vaccines aren't either! There is no clearer illustration of this than the whispers we're hearing of a second booster shot, and who knows how many more.

And speaking of booster shots, the head of the WHO does not really seem to be a fan:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/who-say ... demic.html

World Health Organization officials on Wednesday criticized blanket Covid-19 vaccine booster programs as poor countries struggle to obtain initial doses, warning that the unequal access to immunizations could lead to more mutated variants that drag out the crisis.

“Blanket booster programs are likely to prolong the pandemic, rather than ending it, by diverting supply to countries that already have high levels of vaccination coverage, giving the virus more opportunity to spread and mutate,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a news briefing.

Currently, the vast majority of Covid hospitalizations and deaths are among unvaccinated people, not vaccinated people without booster shots, according to Tedros.

“No country can boost its way out of the pandemic,” he said.


The media, politicians, and so forth love to proclaim "the science is clear", but this is a great example of how it really isn't. Or at least they're not 100% abiding by the "science" when they claim to be. Here's another example:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/24/health/c ... index.html

"Cloth masks are little more than facial decorations. There's no place for them in light of Omicron," said CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and visiting professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, on CNN Newsroom Tuesday.

"If we're going to go as far as to say that masks are required -- when we don't come from a mask-wearing culture and people don't like wearing masks -- at least recommend that they wear the most effective mask," Wen said.


Personally, I was always skeptical of the cloth masks, and if this is indeed true then why are these types of masks still acceptable on airplanes? They already deemed masks with valves inadequate and subsequently banned them.
 
jpetekyxmd80
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:30 am

mke717spotter wrote:

[i]World Health Organization officials on Wednesday criticized blanket Covid-19 vaccine booster programs as poor countries struggle to obtain initial doses, warning that the unequal access to immunizations could lead to more mutated variants that drag out the crisis.


That is only half the story. While I absolutely support the *idea* of wealthier powerful nations with hoards of vaccines benevolently sharing with the world for the common good, that is a fairy tale thats not going to happen. Nigeria has like 4% of its population vaccinated and are dumping millions of expired doses. Same with Senegal. If Africa didn't have enough issues with infrastructure of vaccination, it also faces issues of "vaccine hesitancy" that makes Mississippi look like Portugal. It's a nice thought, but its a pipe dream. Between infrastructure, mismanagement, corruption, and massive hurdles of acceptance, Africa and some other places are simply never going to be meaningfully vaccinated.

Now the idea of a 2nd booster... If omicron and future variants lean towards the mild side, I see no need for a mass program to do that before a probable updated yearly vaccine, but if the very frail/overprotective/whatever want to get another booster I don't see the harm in it. We have no shortage of the current vaccines. And frankly if they were sent somewhere else theres a high likelihood they're going to be thrown away.


mke717spotter wrote:
The media, politicians, and so forth love to proclaim "the science is clear", but this is a great example of how it really isn't. Or at least they're not 100% abiding by the "science" when they claim to be. Here's another example:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/24/health/c ... index.html
hat
"Cloth masks are little more than facial decorations. There's no place for them in light of Omicron," said CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and visiting professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, on CNN Newsroom Tuesday.


I really do not understand the need for some people to play monday morning quarterback when a new and vastly different variant comes out and changes all the rules and previous conventional wisdom of initial strains. Can't you see that what was once "not idea. but something" can become "pretty much next to nothing" when dealing with one of the more transmissible viruses that we've encountered? In the ballpark of measles? This isn't hard. Things change, often quickly. It's easy to play know it all after they have changed.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 28, 2021 2:07 pm

California hospitalizations climbing. Now over 4,000.
A big jump in LA county (up 30%, past 900 per 2nd link)) and Orange county (up 45% to 281)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

https://www.pasadenanow.com/main/los-an ... urpass-900

https://mynewsla.com/orange-county/2021 ... zations-5/

I posted above the added atrial fibrillation due to Omicron that seems to be happening (observance, not confirmed yet). I feel for everyone having trouble getting elective surgeries.

Lightsaber

ps
Illinois governor notes unvaccinated are taking away resources from those in need:
https://qctimes.com/news/state-and-regi ... 25dc8.html

As someone who recently had a very successful elective surgery to cure my last bad coronavirus symptom, I'm going to respectfully agree. My surgery was an elective surgery and I believe too many areas couldn't have performed it due to still not over the Delta wave, much less the really quick Omicron wave in progress.

80% of Louisiana patients are unvaccinated and the case load doubled in a week to 449.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

UK non-emergency wait list hits 6 million people. Ugh... Poor people where elective surgeries would make life easier.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... dline.html
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 28, 2021 3:41 pm

Texas has run out of the Monoclonal antibody treatments until at least some time in January.
https://news.yahoo.com/texas-runs-monoc ... 25210.html

People with the vaccine are much less likely to need the treatment, but at this point, it paints a dangerous picture with cases skyrocketing in Texas,

USA TODAY
Texas runs out of monoclonal antibody treatment to fight omicron variant of COVID-19
Nicole Villalpando and Roberto Villalpando, Austin American-Statesman
Tue, December 28, 2021, 6:49 AM·1 min read
AUSTIN, Texas — The Texas state health department has run out of a key treatment to fight the omicron COVID-19 variant, which now makes up 90% of the virus cases in the state.

On Monday, the Texas Department of State Health Services announced that its regional infusion centers in Austin, El Paso, Fort Worth, San Antonio and The Woodlands have run out of the monoclonal antibody sotrovimab.

That antibody has been shown to be effective against the omicron variant. Other monoclonal antibodies have not been shown to be effective against omicron.
 
T4thH
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 28, 2021 4:26 pm

Really bad news for the world, but not for these in the western rich world (so most of us here): The Chinese vaccine Coronavac (from Sinovac) does not work against Omicron, also not after the third booster shot. Scientific work has been performed in Hongkong.
2.3 billion shots of Coronovac have been produced, most of the used in China but also high amount have been shipped to other countries.
(-> my few Cents: So China is not protected against Omicron. And Omicron will not be stopped by lockdowns, it will be slowed in best case).

Source is in German.
https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Totimpfstoff-wirkt-nicht-gegen-Omikron-article23024817.html
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 28, 2021 10:49 pm

T4thH wrote:
Really bad news for the world, but not for these in the western rich world (so most of us here): The Chinese vaccine Coronavac (from Sinovac) does not work against Omicron, also not after the third booster shot. Scientific work has been performed in Hongkong.
2.3 billion shots of Coronovac have been produced, most of the used in China but also high amount have been shipped to other countries.
(-> my few Cents: So China is not protected against Omicron. And Omicron will not be stopped by lockdowns, it will be slowed in best case).

Source is in German.
https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Totimpfstoff-wirkt-nicht-gegen-Omikron-article23024817.html

This is bad news. I've honestly been looking for counter information.

Source in English:
https://www.republicworld.com/amp/world ... study.html

A third booster shot of China's widely used Sinovac's CoronaVac vaccine has been found ineffective against the highly complex and mutated B.1.1.529 Omicron variant of concern, researchers said in a new study published on December 25. The China-made jab does not provide sufficient protection against Omicron, scientists at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the Chinese University of Hong Kong revealed


That is a global setback. There is almost a billion people in need of another booster (AZ, Moderna, Pfizer, NovaVax).

I am personally sad to see prior hopeful vaccines found ineffective.

Lightsaber
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:40 pm

Confusion and doubt coming from the great Biden Regime ????

Couldn't be . . .

US move to shorten COVID-19 isolation stirs confusion, doubt

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus- ... 3f827a556f
 
TokyoImperialPa
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:37 am

Coronavac (Sinovac) was primarily used by China, South East Asia and South America. It is also a major player in Africa but there is limited overall vaccination there anyway. I think it may be bad news for South America and in particular Indonesia - the latter exclusively is on Sinovac I think.
 
jpetekyxmd80
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:40 am

Not preventing infection does not mean it "doesn't work". That is not how this works. Antibodies are the first level protection that have pretty amazingly been able to prevent infection for a period of time, particularly the MRNA ones. But T-cells in vaccines that help you fight the infection are becoming more important and durable than the sexier but fleeting antibody stats. I haven't seen anything about how effective sinovac is in maintaining strong t-cell levels and their response to omicron. That is the real question.

If you had the original Pfizer or JNJ vaccines 8 months ago they are practically useless for preventing omicron infection. Even boosters are only decent at it. Doesn't mean they don't offer good protection from serious illness. That's whats most important.
 
777luver
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:52 am

jpetekyxmd80 wrote:
Not preventing infection does not mean it "doesn't work". That is not how this works. Antibodies are the first level protection that have pretty amazingly been able to prevent infection for a period of time, particularly the MRNA ones. But T-cells in vaccines that help you fight the infection are becoming more important and durable than the sexier but fleeting antibody stats. I haven't seen anything about how effective sinovac is in maintaining strong t-cell levels and their response to omicron. That is the real question.

If you had the original Pfizer or JNJ vaccines 8 months ago they are practically useless for preventing omicron infection. Even boosters are only decent at it. Doesn't mean they don't offer good protection from serious illness. That's whats most important.


what you said is what the media and people in general seem to have forgotten because all you see in the news is: "vaccines lose efficacy" "vaccines wane over time" "vaccines don't work as well" which just leads to people believing it without taking the time to look into it and realizing what you've said. They still work........Just one example of misinformation in an ocean of it surrounding the pandemic.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:53 am

They're now calling for new lockdowns in Canada. Why are so many double and triple vaxxed people willing to go along with this? It doesn't make much sense to lock down after initially telling people to get vaccinated to avoid a lockdown.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba ... -1.6299055

Doctors on the front lines of Manitoba's pandemic fight say updated public health restrictions announced Monday don't go far enough and officials seem to be making a bad bet COVID-19 won't overwhelm the health-care system in coming weeks.

"We need to lock down," said Dr. Eric Jacobsohn, an intensive care physician in Winnipeg and professor at the University of Manitoba's Max Rady College of Medicine.

Lisa Bryski, a retired physician who worked through the first year of the pandemic, told CBC she's of the view Manitoba's current public health restrictions are "soft-balling what COVID is now shooting at us with a cannon."

"I don't think they're doing enough," Bryski said of current public health orders. "What it comes down to is we need to protect what we have right now for our health-care system and we need to protect each other."


jpetekyxmd80 wrote:
That is only half the story. While I absolutely support the *idea* of wealthier powerful nations with hoards of vaccines benevolently sharing with the world for the common good, that is a fairy tale thats not going to happen. Nigeria has like 4% of its population vaccinated and are dumping millions of expired doses. Same with Senegal. If Africa didn't have enough issues with infrastructure of vaccination, it also faces issues of "vaccine hesitancy" that makes Mississippi look like Portugal. It's a nice thought, but its a pipe dream. Between infrastructure, mismanagement, corruption, and massive hurdles of acceptance, Africa and some other places are simply never going to be meaningfully vaccinated.

This is another misleading view that folks in the media push. "Shame on us Americans, everyone here needs to get vaccinated or else a new variant will arise!" Except, the first variant was from the UK, the next one was from India, and now this one is from Africa. A new one could pop up anywhere, anytime, so its disingenuous to make that sort of proclamation.

jpetekyxmd80 wrote:
I really do not understand the need for some people to play monday morning quarterback when a new and vastly different variant comes out and changes all the rules and previous conventional wisdom of initial strains. Can't you see that what was once "not idea. but something" can become "pretty much next to nothing" when dealing with one of the more transmissible viruses that we've encountered? In the ballpark of measles? This isn't hard. Things change, often quickly. It's easy to play know it all after they have changed.

I get frustrated that there's seemingly only one type of acceptable narrative surrounding all of this. You're not allowed to question anything, and if you do you get ostracized. It's awfully convenient that some of these officials can always just hide behind the claim of "Well, we were just following the data we had at the time" and then pretty much always absolve themselves of any criticism. In reality there's been a ton of mixed messaging. Just look at this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/shortene ... -1.6299315

The decision by U.S. health officials to shorten the recommended COVID-19 isolation and quarantine period from 10 days to five is drawing criticism from some medical experts and could create confusion among many Americans.

To the dismay of some authorities, the new guidelines allow people to leave isolation without getting tested to see if they are still infectious.

"It's frankly reckless to proceed like this," said Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. "Using a rapid test or some type of test to validate that the person isn't infectious is vital."

He added: "There's no evidence, no data to support this."
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 620
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 7:36 am

lightsaber wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Really bad news for the world, but not for these in the western rich world (so most of us here): The Chinese vaccine Coronavac (from Sinovac) does not work against Omicron, also not after the third booster shot. Scientific work has been performed in Hongkong.
2.3 billion shots of Coronovac have been produced, most of the used in China but also high amount have been shipped to other countries.
(-> my few Cents: So China is not protected against Omicron. And Omicron will not be stopped by lockdowns, it will be slowed in best case).

Source is in German.
https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Totimpfstoff-wirkt-nicht-gegen-Omikron-article23024817.html

This is bad news. I've honestly been looking for counter information.

Source in English:
https://www.republicworld.com/amp/world ... study.html

A third booster shot of China's widely used Sinovac's CoronaVac vaccine has been found ineffective against the highly complex and mutated B.1.1.529 Omicron variant of concern, researchers said in a new study published on December 25. The China-made jab does not provide sufficient protection against Omicron, scientists at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the Chinese University of Hong Kong revealed


That is a global setback. There is almost a billion people in need of another booster (AZ, Moderna, Pfizer, NovaVax).

I am personally sad to see prior hopeful vaccines found ineffective.

Lightsaber


So anyone who received the Chinese vaccines and booster should probably be treated as if they were unvaccinated when traveling to other countries and possibly denied entry if vaccination is a requirement for entry?
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 1:13 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Really bad news for the world, but not for these in the western rich world (so most of us here): The Chinese vaccine Coronavac (from Sinovac) does not work against Omicron, also not after the third booster shot. Scientific work has been performed in Hongkong.
2.3 billion shots of Coronovac have been produced, most of the used in China but also high amount have been shipped to other countries.
(-> my few Cents: So China is not protected against Omicron. And Omicron will not be stopped by lockdowns, it will be slowed in best case).

Source is in German.
https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Totimpfstoff-wirkt-nicht-gegen-Omikron-article23024817.html

This is bad news. I've honestly been looking for counter information.

Source in English:
https://www.republicworld.com/amp/world ... study.html

A third booster shot of China's widely used Sinovac's CoronaVac vaccine has been found ineffective against the highly complex and mutated B.1.1.529 Omicron variant of concern, researchers said in a new study published on December 25. The China-made jab does not provide sufficient protection against Omicron, scientists at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the Chinese University of Hong Kong revealed


That is a global setback. There is almost a billion people in need of another booster (AZ, Moderna, Pfizer, NovaVax).

I am personally sad to see prior hopeful vaccines found ineffective.

Lightsaber


So anyone who received the Chinese vaccines and booster should probably be treated as if they were unvaccinated when traveling to other countries and possibly denied entry if vaccination is a requirement for entry?

Depends on what's your goal on vaccine requirement as the above study is only a study on antibody neutralization capability
If the vaccine requirement's goal is to stop foreigners from taking up local hospital resources then one can hope memory T cell of such vaccinated individual can provide better response and thus also lowering the risk in this asoect.
Otherwise, if the purpose is to reduce chance of spread, such lowered antibody count doesn't look like a good sign.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 1:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:
My relative in the hospital saw the first Omicron patients starting just over 3 days ago. It is very different than Delta. Not as life threatening. Just a miserable and messy gastrointestinal blowout (vomiting and diarrhea). Dehydration is an issue in incoming patients, but IVs fix that. Note: I'm not saying these are the common symptoms, this is the symptoms of those who must be admitted to the hospital. It is apparently immediately apparent from the obvious symptoms this isn't a prior strain of the virus to the hospitalists as while patients need oxygen, they are not seeing the respiratory "struggle" of prior variants. The required care is less intensive than Delta (albeit... messy).

Such symptoms could incite superspreader event from like https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16696450/ from SARS-2003
 
777luver
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:50 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
They're now calling for new lockdowns in Canada. Why are so many double and triple vaxxed people willing to go along with this? It doesn't make much sense to lock down after initially telling people to get vaccinated to avoid a lockdown.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba ... -1.6299055

Doctors on the front lines of Manitoba's pandemic fight say updated public health restrictions announced Monday don't go far enough and officials seem to be making a bad bet COVID-19 won't overwhelm the health-care system in coming weeks.

"We need to lock down," said Dr. Eric Jacobsohn, an intensive care physician in Winnipeg and professor at the University of Manitoba's Max Rady College of Medicine.

Lisa Bryski, a retired physician who worked through the first year of the pandemic, told CBC she's of the view Manitoba's current public health restrictions are "soft-balling what COVID is now shooting at us with a cannon."

"I don't think they're doing enough," Bryski said of current public health orders. "What it comes down to is we need to protect what we have right now for our health-care system and we need to protect each other."


jpetekyxmd80 wrote:
That is only half the story. While I absolutely support the *idea* of wealthier powerful nations with hoards of vaccines benevolently sharing with the world for the common good, that is a fairy tale thats not going to happen. Nigeria has like 4% of its population vaccinated and are dumping millions of expired doses. Same with Senegal. If Africa didn't have enough issues with infrastructure of vaccination, it also faces issues of "vaccine hesitancy" that makes Mississippi look like Portugal. It's a nice thought, but its a pipe dream. Between infrastructure, mismanagement, corruption, and massive hurdles of acceptance, Africa and some other places are simply never going to be meaningfully vaccinated.

This is another misleading view that folks in the media push. "Shame on us Americans, everyone here needs to get vaccinated or else a new variant will arise!" Except, the first variant was from the UK, the next one was from India, and now this one is from Africa. A new one could pop up anywhere, anytime, so its disingenuous to make that sort of proclamation.

jpetekyxmd80 wrote:
I really do not understand the need for some people to play monday morning quarterback when a new and vastly different variant comes out and changes all the rules and previous conventional wisdom of initial strains. Can't you see that what was once "not idea. but something" can become "pretty much next to nothing" when dealing with one of the more transmissible viruses that we've encountered? In the ballpark of measles? This isn't hard. Things change, often quickly. It's easy to play know it all after they have changed.

I get frustrated that there's seemingly only one type of acceptable narrative surrounding all of this. You're not allowed to question anything, and if you do you get ostracized. It's awfully convenient that some of these officials can always just hide behind the claim of "Well, we were just following the data we had at the time" and then pretty much always absolve themselves of any criticism. In reality there's been a ton of mixed messaging. Just look at this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/shortene ... -1.6299315

The decision by U.S. health officials to shorten the recommended COVID-19 isolation and quarantine period from 10 days to five is drawing criticism from some medical experts and could create confusion among many Americans.

To the dismay of some authorities, the new guidelines allow people to leave isolation without getting tested to see if they are still infectious.

"It's frankly reckless to proceed like this," said Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. "Using a rapid test or some type of test to validate that the person isn't infectious is vital."

He added: "There's no evidence, no data to support this."


Thats my home province. People here seem to be pro lockdown and for the life of me I can't figure out why. Unless it's because the old people have nothing to lose or people who work from home don't care. But my job would be affected once again qnd scores of other peoples qnd I can't stand people yelling "LOCKDOWN LOCKSOWN" without actually thinking of the consequences. Our Healthcare system is unbelievably horrible on q regular day nvm to pandemic. Our governments need to be more transparent with their data qnd what's driving their decisions but they wont ever be, so instead we are all sheep But doctors have always called for lockdowns, I get they value human life but they don't have an economy to balance. On top of that we are now reatiefiting vaccinated people because this variant spreads from them as well, it upsets a lot of people because we were fed this narrative that being vaccinated would mean we wouldn't be in this situation again. Yet covid had a different plan
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:58 pm

The united states is seeing a spike in hospital cases:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

Over 72,000 in the hospital is too much. I have no idea if this is a post-holiday Delta surge or due to Omicron.

Lightsaber
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The united states is seeing a spike in hospital cases:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

Over 72,000 in the hospital is too much. I have no idea if this is a post-holiday Delta surge or due to Omicron.

Lightsaber



I think it is a mixture. But Delta is still leading the initial cases. Omicron may take over just because it represents a 40-70 times faster replication rate than Delta.

http://unc.cov2seq.org/

It does blow my mind how the initial variants are all but memories since Delta and Omicron took over. Do they stop looking for the old ones, or have the old ones gone away?
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:19 pm

777luver wrote:

I get frustrated that there's seemingly only one type of acceptable narrative surrounding all of this. You're not allowed to question anything, and if you do you get ostracized. It's awfully convenient that some of these officials can always just hide behind the claim of "Well, we were just following the data we had at the time" and then pretty much always absolve themselves of any criticism. In reality there's been a ton of mixed messaging. Just look at this:


That bothers me too.

You can't say don't question the science and be taken seriously.

The whole point of science is to question the status quo with new information. Fauci should know better that to say not question the science, he is using that as a screen to avoid people from questioning him. However much the the Omicron science out of South Africa was immediately dismissed by many professionals in the US, Canada and Europe as they went right to the demographics of being older and heavier. Looking at health has not been publicly stated once in the last 22 months by any mainstream health professional as a result most people are stressed and scared. What is one of the biggest factors of weight gain? Stress, which leads to sleep deprivation, bad food choices etc. People have been much more stressed in the last 22 months that won't help matters.

You know who talks about that? Joe Rogan and Bill Maher.

However out of the scientific professions I think doctors are questioned the least and that needs to change.

If we didn't question the science then we would still be living in 1492.

777luver wrote:
Thats my home province. People here seem to be pro lockdown and for the life of me I can't figure out why. Unless it's because the old people have nothing to lose or people who work from home don't care. But my job would be affected once again qnd scores of other peoples qnd I can't stand people yelling "LOCKDOWN LOCKSOWN" without actually thinking of the consequences. Our Healthcare system is unbelievably horrible on q regular day nvm to pandemic. Our governments need to be more transparent with their data qnd what's driving their decisions but they wont ever be, so instead we are all sheep But doctors have always called for lockdowns, I get they value human life but they don't have an economy to balance. On top of that we are now reatiefiting vaccinated people because this variant spreads from them as well, it upsets a lot of people because we were fed this narrative that being vaccinated would mean we wouldn't be in this situation again. Yet covid had a different plan


The reason that we might need lockdowns is because we have an inadequate ICU capacity to handle a surge but since in most provinces have vaccine passports most places can only be visited by the vaccinated. This will fuel a lot of backlash when you have a vaccine passport as the vaccinated aren't the ones going to the hospital. Locking us down sends the message that the vaccine has failed and the anti-vax people are laughing at the situation as they are kind of being validated.

This is something health care systems have to look at going forward is the ability to handle a pandemic level surge while maintaining normal hospital functionality means there is a lot of redundancy in the system in normal times. It takes up to a year to train an ICU nurse and having them sit around would not be efficient as you can't simply transfer specialists in one aspect of health care to the other.

However in health care and the greater economy this pandemic has exposed the limitations of having a "Just In Time" approach to getting things done. Canadian taxpayers won't necessarily be happy with a lot of ICU teams sitting around a lot of the time.

Regarding the lockdown support I am convinced that they are polling people who answer land lines and who are actually scared and/or have nothing to lose from the lockdowns. If they polled business owners and young people they would see that most of us are 100% against them. I think the polling in Canada is shifting and we see that there are basically no restrictions in the US and we can see it on TV.
 
descl
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:12 pm

lightsaber wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Really bad news for the world, but not for these in the western rich world (so most of us here): The Chinese vaccine Coronavac (from Sinovac) does not work against Omicron, also not after the third booster shot. Scientific work has been performed in Hongkong.
2.3 billion shots of Coronovac have been produced, most of the used in China but also high amount have been shipped to other countries.
(-> my few Cents: So China is not protected against Omicron. And Omicron will not be stopped by lockdowns, it will be slowed in best case).

Source is in German.
https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Totimpfstoff-wirkt-nicht-gegen-Omikron-article23024817.html

This is bad news. I've honestly been looking for counter information.

Source in English:
https://www.republicworld.com/amp/world ... study.html

A third booster shot of China's widely used Sinovac's CoronaVac vaccine has been found ineffective against the highly complex and mutated B.1.1.529 Omicron variant of concern, researchers said in a new study published on December 25. The China-made jab does not provide sufficient protection against Omicron, scientists at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the Chinese University of Hong Kong revealed


That is a global setback. There is almost a billion people in need of another booster (AZ, Moderna, Pfizer, NovaVax).

I am personally sad to see prior hopeful vaccines found ineffective.

Lightsaber

Here we have prelimenary results of a study beeing made in Chile regarding a 3rd Coronavac dose and the Omicron variant.

Preliminary results of uc study show that sinovac vaccine activates immunity to the new variant:

Link in Spanish:
https://www.elmostrador.cl/noticias/pai ... -variante/

"Assessments were made of the capacity of T lymphocytes in the blood, since they are part of the immune system and help protect the body from infection and disease."

"We observed that individuals vaccinated with the booster dose possess T cells that are activated against the Spike protein of the Omicron variant in a similar way to the original strain, which indicates that CoronaVac contains elements shared with the Omicron variant that are capable of activating T lymphocytes."

"These T lymphocytes then have the ability to recognize infected cells to eliminate them. To achieve this, the T lymphocytes must also produce an antiviral molecule called interferon gamma and our results show that this molecule is effectively produced when T lymphocytes confront each other. to elements derived from the Omicron variant."

"Although our data is preliminary, it is encouraging, it must be taken with caution and we must continue to seek measures that prevent contagion and viral transmission, such as the mask, hand washing, physical distancing and other measures such as testing, traceability and isolation of cases."

Anyway, Chile has been vaccinating mostly with Pfizer and Astrazeneca as 3rd dose, and will probably use Moderna as 4th dose.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:16 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The united states is seeing a spike in hospital cases:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

Over 72,000 in the hospital is too much. I have no idea if this is a post-holiday Delta surge or due to Omicron.

Lightsaber



I think it is a mixture. But Delta is still leading the initial cases. Omicron may take over just because it represents a 40-70 times faster replication rate than Delta.

http://unc.cov2seq.org/

It does blow my mind how the initial variants are all but memories since Delta and Omicron took over. Do they stop looking for the old ones, or have the old ones gone away?

The CDC has an excellent page with many different types of data:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... acker-home

If you dig into that page (fairly far down) you will find the variant proportions.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... roportions

Omicron is now 58.6% of cases. Note how Delta displaced all prior variants earlier. Omicron seems to protect the individual, after exposure, to Delta, so it seems to be a case of whichever variant is first displaces prior variants:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/28/covid-o ... study.html

The immune response of people infected with omicron appears to increase protection against delta more than fourfold, according to a study from South Africa.

Since Omicron seems to be the fastest coronavirus yet, we're in for an interesting winter:
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/u-covid ... 11086.html
The Omicron variant is rapidly spreading across The United States, so fast, that this week, the country hit a record-breaking number of cases in just one day.

On Dec. 27, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recorded over 441,000 new cases of COVID-19. PEOPLE noted that the number surpassed “the Jan. 8 record of over 298,000 reported new cases in a single day.”

I personally predict it will be the rare individual who doesn't catch Omicron. My question is how bad will it be in the hospitals?

Lightsaber

If you look at the "variant proportions" link
Delta: Spread: Spreads more easily than other variants.
Omicron: Spread: May spread more easily than other variants, including Delta.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 15189
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The united states is seeing a spike in hospital cases:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

Over 72,000 in the hospital is too much. I have no idea if this is a post-holiday Delta surge or due to Omicron.

Lightsaber



I think it is a mixture. But Delta is still leading the initial cases. Omicron may take over just because it represents a 40-70 times faster replication rate than Delta.

http://unc.cov2seq.org/

It does blow my mind how the initial variants are all but memories since Delta and Omicron took over. Do they stop looking for the old ones, or have the old ones gone away?

The CDC has an excellent page with many different types of data:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... acker-home

If you dig into that page (fairly far down) you will find the variant proportions.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... roportions

Omicron is now 58.6% of cases. Note how Delta displaced all prior variants earlier. Omicron seems to protect the individual, after exposure, to Delta, so it seems to be a case of whichever variant is first displaces prior variants:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/28/covid-o ... study.html

The immune response of people infected with omicron appears to increase protection against delta more than fourfold, according to a study from South Africa.

Since Omicron seems to be the fastest coronavirus yet, we're in for an interesting winter:
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/u-covid ... 11086.html
The Omicron variant is rapidly spreading across The United States, so fast, that this week, the country hit a record-breaking number of cases in just one day.

On Dec. 27, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recorded over 441,000 new cases of COVID-19. PEOPLE noted that the number surpassed “the Jan. 8 record of over 298,000 reported new cases in a single day.”

I personally predict it will be the rare individual who doesn't catch Omicron. My question is how bad will it be in the hospitals?

Lightsaber

If you look at the "variant proportions" link
Delta: Spread: Spreads more easily than other variants.
Omicron: Spread: May spread more easily than other variants, including Delta.

''When you dig into the graphs it really seems like Omicron is just spreading so fast that none of the other variants have a chance. If Omicron is indeed milder, then maybe this is the virus we need to get us out of the pandemic. I do worry though that at the current rate, hospitals are going to be in for some serious issues in the next few months even if Omicron is milder than Delta.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Dec 29, 2021 6:58 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
My relative in the hospital saw the first Omicron patients starting just over 3 days ago. It is very different than Delta. Not as life threatening. Just a miserable and messy gastrointestinal blowout (vomiting and diarrhea). Dehydration is an issue in incoming patients, but IVs fix that. Note: I'm not saying these are the common symptoms, this is the symptoms of those who must be admitted to the hospital. It is apparently immediately apparent from the obvious symptoms this isn't a prior strain of the virus to the hospitalists as while patients need oxygen, they are not seeing the respiratory "struggle" of prior variants. The required care is less intensive than Delta (albeit... messy).

Such symptoms could incite superspreader event from like https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16696450/ from SARS-2003

Unfortunately, you have a good point as if people are puking (or worse) in shall we say public places, then there is a pool of virus that will possibly create mass spreader events.

I remain of the opinion very few people will not catch Omicron. I personally think it is too late to vaccinate enough people to matter from a public health perspective, but individuals could reduce their risk by getting a vaccine.

Lightsaber
Late edit:
casinterest wrote:
''When you dig into the graphs it really seems like Omicron is just spreading so fast that none of the other variants have a chance. If Omicron is indeed milder, then maybe this is the virus we need to get us out of the pandemic. I do worry though that at the current rate, hospitals are going to be in for some serious issues in the next few months even if Omicron is milder than Delta.


I agree that none of the other variants stand a chance. The questions are:
1. Is the atrial fibrillation my relative is seeing in the hospital common, or just a fluke? I have no idea.
2. With so many people getting Omicron, what is the next variant?

After two years, I'm betting we are not out of this. I would bet we need a variant vaccine and a far higher fraction of the world vaccinated. We're at 57.4% one dose, that is it. I've posted before my concern for children in the hospital (that is just not normal).
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3568
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 30, 2021 2:53 am

mke717spotter wrote:
They're now calling for new lockdowns in Canada. Why are so many double and triple vaxxed people willing to go along with the?

There is a certain personality type that has exposed itself over the last two years and I'm not quite certain how to tag it. Risk averse doesn't suffice...

But it just cannot wait to lock down. Just can't get enough.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 30, 2021 4:48 am

StarAC17 wrote:
The whole point of science is to question the status quo with new information. Fauci should know better that to say not question the science, he is using that as a screen to avoid people from questioning him. However much the the Omicron science out of South Africa was immediately dismissed by many professionals in the US, Canada and Europe as they went right to the demographics of being older and heavier. Looking at health has not been publicly stated once in the last 22 months by any mainstream health professional as a result most people are stressed and scared. What is one of the biggest factors of weight gain? Stress, which leads to sleep deprivation, bad food choices etc. People have been much more stressed in the last 22 months that won't help matters.

You know who talks about that? Joe Rogan and Bill Maher.

However out of the scientific professions I think doctors are questioned the least and that needs to change.

If we didn't question the science then we would still be living in 1492.



Speaking of Joe Rogan, I believe the Vaccine Scientist Robert Malone, who claims to have invented mRNA technology, will be on Joe Rogan's show tomorrow.
Should be Fun ! :checkeredflag:
 
ItnStln
Posts: 339
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 30, 2021 1:54 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
The whole point of science is to question the status quo with new information. Fauci should know better that to say not question the science, he is using that as a screen to avoid people from questioning him. However much the the Omicron science out of South Africa was immediately dismissed by many professionals in the US, Canada and Europe as they went right to the demographics of being older and heavier. Looking at health has not been publicly stated once in the last 22 months by any mainstream health professional as a result most people are stressed and scared. What is one of the biggest factors of weight gain? Stress, which leads to sleep deprivation, bad food choices etc. People have been much more stressed in the last 22 months that won't help matters.

You know who talks about that? Joe Rogan and Bill Maher.

However out of the scientific professions I think doctors are questioned the least and that needs to change.

If we didn't question the science then we would still be living in 1492.



Speaking of Joe Rogan, I believe the Vaccine Scientist Robert Malone, who claims to have invented mRNA technology, will be on Joe Rogan's show tomorrow.
Should be Fun ! :checkeredflag:

Thanks for the tip, I'll have to check it out!
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4355
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Dec 30, 2021 4:27 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
The whole point of science is to question the status quo with new information. Fauci should know better that to say not question the science, he is using that as a screen to avoid people from questioning him. However much the the Omicron science out of South Africa was immediately dismissed by many professionals in the US, Canada and Europe as they went right to the demographics of being older and heavier. Looking at health has not been publicly stated once in the last 22 months by any mainstream health professional as a result most people are stressed and scared. What is one of the biggest factors of weight gain? Stress, which leads to sleep deprivation, bad food choices etc. People have been much more stressed in the last 22 months that won't help matters.

You know who talks about that? Joe Rogan and Bill Maher.

However out of the scientific professions I think doctors are questioned the least and that needs to change.

If we didn't question the science then we would still be living in 1492.



Speaking of Joe Rogan, I believe the Vaccine Scientist Robert Malone, who claims to have invented mRNA technology, will be on Joe Rogan's show tomorrow.
Should be Fun ! :checkeredflag:


One of the good things about Rogan is that he will have a diverse amount of people one his show. You don't have to agree with him but he has had people from all areas of the political and medical community on. This should be a decent and respectful discussion.
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 31, 2021 12:46 am

art wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
South Africa has basically ended their pandemic response

No more quarantine for positive asymptomatic people and no more contact tracing.

Realising this illness is not overwhelming hospitals or causing significant fatalities and the response of locking up anyone who has been near a positive case is ridiculous as it’s causing more harm than good. Look at how airlines are cancelling flights due lack of staff because of ridiculous quarantine rules.

They’ve realised this is almost always no worse than a mild cold, and it’s time for other countries to follow.

This will give other countries the opportunity to see what happens if omicron is treated as an annoyance rather than a serious threat.

If this approach proves beneficial, what is the chance of other countries desisting from a fixation on containing COVID-19 with little regard to the wider damage this causes?


I don't think South Africa is a good example for Western countries. The demographics are completely different (average age much lower), there are far less people with comorbidities, and also it's summer. And finally the wave peaked there already, we can't stop doing something before we even started and before reaching that peak.

I'm not obsessed with restrictions but I think a few weeks of severe restrictions are a good idea to help matters. Now I'm saying that from the POV that there are no real consequences for me, aside from not going to the cinema (that are still open, and to which I'm subscribed), and doing more telework. Well, I wanted to take sunny vacations in the Caribbean, I had to forget that idea for the time being.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 31, 2021 1:15 am

Hospitalizations growing in UK:
11,898 patients, over a thousand more in 24 hours.

Wait, am I reading that right that almost all is in England?!?

https://www.manxradio.com/news/uk-news/ ... ur-period/

It looks like tomorrow's chart will show the UK joining the growing list of countries with climbing hospitalizations:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~ITA~ESP

Lightsaber
 
art
Posts: 4641
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:33 am

lightsaber wrote:
Hospitalizations growing in UK:
11,898 patients, over a thousand more in 24 hours.

Wait, am I reading that right that almost all is in England?!?

https://www.manxradio.com/news/uk-news/ ... ur-period/

It looks like tomorrow's chart will show the UK joining the growing list of countries with climbing hospitalizations:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~ITA~ESP

Lightsaber

How many people in England are being hospitalised for treatment of symptoms associated with COVID-19? If 1,000 people turn up at hospital with a broken leg and half of them test positive for COVID-19, the COVID-19 stats show that 500 people have been hospitalised with COVID-19.
 
art
Posts: 4641
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:12 am

Aesma wrote:
art wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
South Africa has basically ended their pandemic response

No more quarantine for positive asymptomatic people and no more contact tracing.

Realising this illness is not overwhelming hospitals or causing significant fatalities and the response of locking up anyone who has been near a positive case is ridiculous as it’s causing more harm than good. Look at how airlines are cancelling flights due lack of staff because of ridiculous quarantine rules.

They’ve realised this is almost always no worse than a mild cold, and it’s time for other countries to follow.

This will give other countries the opportunity to see what happens if omicron is treated as an annoyance rather than a serious threat.

If this approach proves beneficial, what is the chance of other countries desisting from a fixation on containing COVID-19 with little regard to the wider damage this causes?


I don't think South Africa is a good example for Western countries. The demographics are completely different (average age much lower), there are far less people with comorbidities, and also it's summer. And finally the wave peaked there already, we can't stop doing something before we even started and before reaching that peak.

I'm not obsessed with restrictions but I think a few weeks of severe restrictions are a good idea to help matters. Now I'm saying that from the POV that there are no real consequences for me, aside from not going to the cinema (that are still open, and to which I'm subscribed), and doing more telework. Well, I wanted to take sunny vacations in the Caribbean, I had to forget that idea for the time being.


Agreed that South Africa is different to Europe but if there is a big reduction in the effects of COVID-19 in South Africa when the variant switches from delta to omicron, it is reasonable to think that the same should happen elsewhere.
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