Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
art wrote:Talk by British MD on University of Hong Kong study indicating that omicron reproduces at 7000% the rate of delta in the bronchial passages but at 10% the rate of delta in the lung alvioli.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84XMFVcLScw
As a layman I am encouraged. In my limited understanding, omicron may affect the passages to and from the lungs rather than the alvioli in the lungs where gas exchange takes place.
Talk about the University of Hong Kong study starts at 4min in the video.
StarAC17 wrote:art wrote:Talk by British MD on University of Hong Kong study indicating that omicron reproduces at 7000% the rate of delta in the bronchial passages but at 10% the rate of delta in the lung alvioli.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84XMFVcLScw
I saw a portion of this video.
If this is in fact true then its very good news and would explain why this would be a milder variant. The body can fight the virus in the bronchial tubes (it just makes you cough and feel crappy) and the risk of pneumonia and the cytokine storms that really make covid life threatening are being mitigated.
Add in far more background immunity and its not the end of the world.
art wrote:More data awaited... but could omicron be a godsend? Many, many more people infected but infected with a virus that does not seriously screw up our ability to get the O2 we want and to dump the CO2 we don't want.
TokyoImperialPa wrote:The concern driving the lockdowns is due to pressure on the NHS.
For example, a person infected with coronavirus cannot attend their job as a healthcare worker....
TokyoImperialPa wrote:The concern driving the lockdowns is due to pressure on the NHS.
For example, a person infected with coronavirus cannot attend their job as a healthcare worker (and even if you believe that Omicron is not a serious threat, it is a lengthy process to identify which variant is present, and furthermore it is unlikely that you can take risks in a job that requires working with vulnerable people), and if too many healthcare workers get Omicron then the healthcare industry would not be able to function. On top of that there is serious concern about the effect of Omicron on people who have other illnesses, especially as there will be a convergence of the flu season (which South Africa has a few months later than Europe).
sierrakilo44 wrote:Well we have the South African data showing hospitalisation rates with the Omicron wave were 2/3rds less than the Delta wave. Now early data coming in from Denmark showing hospitalisation is 60% lower than in the Delta wave at comparable numbers.
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/stat ... 41346?s=20
We were told that exponential growth in Omicron cases would negate it’s lower severity and end up overflowing hospitals anyway. It looks like the opposite is true, as Omicron outcompetes Delta it is clearing out hospitals. This is good news but barely being reported on by the media more interested in making fearmongering predictions rather than report actual events and outcomes.
art wrote:sierrakilo44 wrote:Well we have the South African data showing hospitalisation rates with the Omicron wave were 2/3rds less than the Delta wave. Now early data coming in from Denmark showing hospitalisation is 60% lower than in the Delta wave at comparable numbers.
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/stat ... 41346?s=20
We were told that exponential growth in Omicron cases would negate it’s lower severity and end up overflowing hospitals anyway. It looks like the opposite is true, as Omicron outcompetes Delta it is clearing out hospitals. This is good news but barely being reported on by the media more interested in making fearmongering predictions rather than report actual events and outcomes.
A 'good' side effect of this may be that it accelerates progress towards herd immunity. The problem arises that if daily cases triple, quadruple or quintuple, it may result in increased demand on hospital care, increasing pressure on the resources available (exacerbated, too, by an increase in hospital staff absence due to a higher infection rate in them).
art wrote:If 5,000 cases have been traced back to a single source less than 20 days earlier, that seems like a staggering increase to me. I wonder how many people left the nightclub having picked up the virus.
About 15 out of around 5,000 needing hospital treatment (so far) sounds very encouraging for the immediate future during which omicron infection is expected to spread explosively in countries in which it has been detected.
art wrote:If 5,000 cases have been traced back to a single source less than 20 days earlier, that seems like a staggering increase to me. I wonder how many people left the nightclub having picked up the virus.
About 15 out of around 5,000 needing hospital treatment (so far) sounds very encouraging for the immediate future during which omicron infection is expected to spread explosively in countries in which it has been detected.
South Africa sees fewer hospitalisations as omicron surges, say health officials
One public health specialist said that the number of people requiring oxygen seemed to be lower than previous waves
Fewer people have died or required hospital treatment from omicron in South Africa than in previous waves despite a record number of new infections, health officials said on Friday.
yonahleung wrote:
If the figures confirm what I have been suspecting, then the hard lockdowns and hard borders will look rather silly.
sierrakilo44 wrote:yonahleung wrote:
If the figures confirm what I have been suspecting, then the hard lockdowns and hard borders will look rather silly.
One of Australia’s (a country hardly known for being soft on Covid) leading epidemiologists has stated after reviewing the data on Omicron there’s enough evidence to conclude Omicron is less serious than other variants, and he’s convinced it’s not going to cause a rise in hospitalisation like Delta:
https://www.3aw.com.au/leading-epidemio ... han-delta/
art wrote:If it is half as virulent as delta but daily infections triple (which to me does not seem desperately unlikely in UK), we will have increased demand on services. Add in a flu epidemic and we will be looking at problems. I just hope it is a lot less than 50% as good as delta at pushing people into hospitals for treatment.
ltbewr wrote:Sports around the world is being significantly affected by the rise of the newest variant of the Covid-19 virus. It has hit the US/Canadian National Hockey League, the USA's National Football League, the National Basketball League as well as many college games in the USA, English Premiere League football
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/329 ... -due-covid
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/329 ... use-season
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/329 ... on-variant
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/soccer ... NewsSearch
The NHL was going to take a break during the Winter Olympics, many players are from outside the USA and Canada and some were going to the Olympics to represent their National teams. The NHL is not going to allow any players to go to Beijing, they may need the break to make up for lost and rescheduled games.
One has to wonder that the Winter Olympics scheduled for February will see many participants drop out or not allowed by their teams or nations to go due to the high risk of Covid-19 infections.
ltbewr wrote:One has to wonder that the Winter Olympics scheduled for February will see many participants drop out or not allowed by their teams or nations to go due to the high risk of Covid-19 infections.
Francoflier wrote:Sweet irony...
yonahleung wrote:The thing about the Beijing Winter Olympics is I wonder if it will lead to an Omicron wave in China much like the Delta wave in Japan this summer around the Olympics.
Zeppi wrote:Francoflier wrote:Sweet irony...
Indeed, and I expect Omikron to hit really hard in China as their vaccine is almost ineffective against it.
c933103 wrote:https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/omicron-infections-no-less-severe-than-delta-early-study-suggests.html
Omicron infections no less severe than delta, early study suggests
[The] study assessed data from the U.K. Health Security Agency and U.K. health service for all PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infections in the area from Nov. 29-Dec. 11.
The study found hospitalization and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with omicron, suggesting limited changes in severity compared with delta.
---
While number of Omicron case in the UK in this time period is still relatively few as the article mentioned, thus the number of Omicron hospitalized patient are still limited for the analysis purpose, I think what it clearly show is that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of severity of Omicron being less before further data become available.
art wrote:c933103 wrote:https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/omicron-infections-no-less-severe-than-delta-early-study-suggests.html
Omicron infections no less severe than delta, early study suggests
[The] study assessed data from the U.K. Health Security Agency and U.K. health service for all PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infections in the area from Nov. 29-Dec. 11.
The study found hospitalization and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with omicron, suggesting limited changes in severity compared with delta.
---
While number of Omicron case in the UK in this time period is still relatively few as the article mentioned, thus the number of Omicron hospitalized patient are still limited for the analysis purpose, I think what it clearly show is that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of severity of Omicron being less before further data become available.
I find it somewhat strange that this study of the effects of omicron is so different to the reports coming from South Africa (when compared to non-omicron COVID-19 infection) of a lower proportion of infectees (a) needing hospital treatment (b) requiring oxygen support (c) dying while being treated in hospital.
lightsaber wrote:art wrote:c933103 wrote:https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/omicron-infections-no-less-severe-than-delta-early-study-suggests.html
Omicron infections no less severe than delta, early study suggests
[The] study assessed data from the U.K. Health Security Agency and U.K. health service for all PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infections in the area from Nov. 29-Dec. 11.
The study found hospitalization and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with omicron, suggesting limited changes in severity compared with delta.
---
While number of Omicron case in the UK in this time period is still relatively few as the article mentioned, thus the number of Omicron hospitalized patient are still limited for the analysis purpose, I think what it clearly show is that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of severity of Omicron being less before further data become available.
I find it somewhat strange that this study of the effects of omicron is so different to the reports coming from South Africa (when compared to non-omicron COVID-19 infection) of a lower proportion of infectees (a) needing hospital treatment (b) requiring oxygen support (c) dying while being treated in hospital.
The excess deaths spiked in South Africa. Since they went up with Omicron...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Also, South Africa has cut testing with a positivity rate above 30%. Something is wrong with their numbers. Unfortunately, London and New York City will be telling us the truth. Note, for all I know SA ran short of test kits. But when deaths are mysteriously up, with 2,000 excess deaths per week and testing insufficient by any benchmark I've read (positivity < 5% is the number I hear doctors talk about), we need to have more information.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/so ... -two-weeks
I personally believe the UK is very thorough in their studies. We will find out over the next 5 weeks who was right. South Africa already has a high death rate and yet they have seen 270,000 excess deaths since this pandemic started (recall excess deaths are in addition to the expected deaths):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... th-africa/
The life expectancy at birth is 64.1 years. What I base my high death rate comment upon:
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/Z ... expectancy
Lightsaber
M564038 wrote:At the same time, with 4700 Omicron-cases confirmed since November 28th, which officials say is just the tip of the ice-berg since only a fraction is sequenced to identify variation, Norway has seen -1- person shortly hospitalized with Omicron.
(Source NRK, FHI, DB.NO, VG.NO)lightsaber wrote:art wrote:I find it somewhat strange that this study of the effects of omicron is so different to the reports coming from South Africa (when compared to non-omicron COVID-19 infection) of a lower proportion of infectees (a) needing hospital treatment (b) requiring oxygen support (c) dying while being treated in hospital.
The excess deaths spiked in South Africa. Since they went up with Omicron...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Also, South Africa has cut testing with a positivity rate above 30%. Something is wrong with their numbers. Unfortunately, London and New York City will be telling us the truth. Note, for all I know SA ran short of test kits. But when deaths are mysteriously up, with 2,000 excess deaths per week and testing insufficient by any benchmark I've read (positivity < 5% is the number I hear doctors talk about), we need to have more information.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/so ... -two-weeks
I personally believe the UK is very thorough in their studies. We will find out over the next 5 weeks who was right. South Africa already has a high death rate and yet they have seen 270,000 excess deaths since this pandemic started (recall excess deaths are in addition to the expected deaths):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... th-africa/
The life expectancy at birth is 64.1 years. What I base my high death rate comment upon:
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/Z ... expectancy
Lightsaber
lightsaber wrote:I found a more quantified South African link. 80% reduction in hospitalizations.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
However, that link notes 60% to 70% of South Africans had prior coronavirus (many in my opinion recent). When vaccinations are included, I can only estimate the fraction vulnerable, but it would be only 20% or so of the population (I admit to high uncertainty in that number). The concerning thing is how South Africa had 270,000 excess deaths in a young population to achieve that level of societal immunity. (See prior post for link).
I have a working hypothesis: Both numbers seem to be correct. It seems as if lower severity in vaccinated or prior exposure. However equal severity to those with no prior immunity.
LightsaberM564038 wrote:At the same time, with 4700 Omicron-cases confirmed since November 28th, which officials say is just the tip of the ice-berg since only a fraction is sequenced to identify variation, Norway has seen -1- person shortly hospitalized with Omicron.
(Source NRK, FHI, DB.NO, VG.NO)lightsaber wrote:The excess deaths spiked in South Africa. Since they went up with Omicron...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Also, South Africa has cut testing with a positivity rate above 30%. Something is wrong with their numbers. Unfortunately, London and New York City will be telling us the truth. Note, for all I know SA ran short of test kits. But when deaths are mysteriously up, with 2,000 excess deaths per week and testing insufficient by any benchmark I've read (positivity < 5% is the number I hear doctors talk about), we need to have more information.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/so ... -two-weeks
I personally believe the UK is very thorough in their studies. We will find out over the next 5 weeks who was right. South Africa already has a high death rate and yet they have seen 270,000 excess deaths since this pandemic started (recall excess deaths are in addition to the expected deaths):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... th-africa/
The life expectancy at birth is 64.1 years. What I base my high death rate comment upon:
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/Z ... expectancy
Lightsaber
c933103 wrote:lightsaber wrote:I found a more quantified South African link. 80% reduction in hospitalizations.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
However, that link notes 60% to 70% of South Africans had prior coronavirus (many in my opinion recent). When vaccinations are included, I can only estimate the fraction vulnerable, but it would be only 20% or so of the population (I admit to high uncertainty in that number). The concerning thing is how South Africa had 270,000 excess deaths in a young population to achieve that level of societal immunity. (See prior post for link).
I have a working hypothesis: Both numbers seem to be correct. It seems as if lower severity in vaccinated or prior exposure. However equal severity to those with no prior immunity.
LightsaberM564038 wrote:At the same time, with 4700 Omicron-cases confirmed since November 28th, which officials say is just the tip of the ice-berg since only a fraction is sequenced to identify variation, Norway has seen -1- person shortly hospitalized with Omicron.
(Source NRK, FHI, DB.NO, VG.NO)
But then UK also have 70% population 2-dose vaccinated, in addition to those who had prior infection
c933103 wrote:lightsaber wrote:I found a more quantified South African link. 80% reduction in hospitalizations.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
However, that link notes 60% to 70% of South Africans had prior coronavirus (many in my opinion recent). When vaccinations are included, I can only estimate the fraction vulnerable, but it would be only 20% or so of the population (I admit to high uncertainty in that number). The concerning thing is how South Africa had 270,000 excess deaths in a young population to achieve that level of societal immunity. (See prior post for link).
I have a working hypothesis: Both numbers seem to be correct. It seems as if lower severity in vaccinated or prior exposure. However equal severity to those with no prior immunity.
LightsaberM564038 wrote:At the same time, with 4700 Omicron-cases confirmed since November 28th, which officials say is just the tip of the ice-berg since only a fraction is sequenced to identify variation, Norway has seen -1- person shortly hospitalized with Omicron.
(Source NRK, FHI, DB.NO, VG.NO)
But then UK also have 70% population 2-dose vaccinated, in addition to those who had prior infection
art wrote:England
77% 1 dose
70% 2 doses
46% 3 doses
Source: NHS England
UK
17% infected + recovered (assuming no repeat infection of any people)
02% active cases
Source: worldometers.info
I do not know the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated for the infected + recovered figure, so something between 77% and 96% of the population has some protection from a single dose of vaccine or previous infection or is currently infected.
More than 1,600 people are battling COVID-19 from a hospital bed in North Carolina, the highest level in the state in two months.
Duke Health tells WRAL News that 100% of their COVID-19 patients in the ICU or on life-saving treatment are unvaccinated.
A little more than a quarter of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in North Carolina are on ventilators, according to data from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. In the Raleigh area, there are only 7 ICU beds left.
In some areas in North Carolina, hospitalizations have more than doubled. Duke Health saw a 50% increase in people being hospitalized for COVID-19 this month and UNC Health has seen the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations go from 77 to 180.
casinterest wrote:As the numbers are starting to rise again, it still remains clear that the Unvaccinated are the most at risk.
It still remains to be seen how Omicron will affect the general population, but the ICU is full of the Unvaccinated.
https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/100-of ... /20045587/More than 1,600 people are battling COVID-19 from a hospital bed in North Carolina, the highest level in the state in two months.
Duke Health tells WRAL News that 100% of their COVID-19 patients in the ICU or on life-saving treatment are unvaccinated.
A little more than a quarter of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in North Carolina are on ventilators, according to data from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. In the Raleigh area, there are only 7 ICU beds left.
In some areas in North Carolina, hospitalizations have more than doubled. Duke Health saw a 50% increase in people being hospitalized for COVID-19 this month and UNC Health has seen the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations go from 77 to 180.
I heard on the BBC news that in London absenteeism in health workers in the acute medical care sector doubled in one week
lightsaber wrote:casinterest wrote:As the numbers are starting to rise again, it still remains clear that the Unvaccinated are the most at risk.
It still remains to be seen how Omicron will affect the general population, but the ICU is full of the Unvaccinated.
https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/100-of ... /20045587/More than 1,600 people are battling COVID-19 from a hospital bed in North Carolina, the highest level in the state in two months.
Duke Health tells WRAL News that 100% of their COVID-19 patients in the ICU or on life-saving treatment are unvaccinated.
A little more than a quarter of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in North Carolina are on ventilators, according to data from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. In the Raleigh area, there are only 7 ICU beds left.
In some areas in North Carolina, hospitalizations have more than doubled. Duke Health saw a 50% increase in people being hospitalized for COVID-19 this month and UNC Health has seen the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations go from 77 to 180.
Community health network of Indiana reports 96% of patients unvaccinated:
https://www.wthr.com/article/news/verif ... 81b9f1dede
At my relatives area, it is 85% (I check to see if I should say "hi" or do not disturb.).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/
It will be interesting to see the trend. The UK has many more cases, but fewer hospitalizations than France:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases
The ranking of vaccinations will be telling, alas in an after the fact situation.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... OR~ISR~TUR
Lightsaber
art wrote:
BBC TV news reports that in Australia the New South Wales government health minister has proposed charging unvaccinated COVID-19 patients for their treatment if they require hospital treatment for COVID-19.
If so, I see an ethical debate coming.
art wrote:BBC TV news reports that in Australia the New South Wales government health minister has proposed charging unvaccinated COVID-19 patients for their treatment if they require hospital treatment for COVID-19.
If so, I see an ethical debate coming.
art wrote:Correction to my post #236 above:I heard on the BBC news that in London absenteeism in health workers in the acute medical care sector doubled in one week
I should have said the BBC news reported that absenteeism rose by half in one week.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BBC TV news reports that in Australia the New South Wales government health minister has proposed charging unvaccinated COVID-19 patients for their treatment if they require hospital treatment for COVID-19.
If so, I see an ethical debate coming.
c933103 wrote:lightsaber wrote:casinterest wrote:As the numbers are starting to rise again, it still remains clear that the Unvaccinated are the most at risk.
It still remains to be seen how Omicron will affect the general population, but the ICU is full of the Unvaccinated.
https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/100-of ... /20045587/
Community health network of Indiana reports 96% of patients unvaccinated:
https://www.wthr.com/article/news/verif ... 81b9f1dede
At my relatives area, it is 85% (I check to see if I should say "hi" or do not disturb.).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/
It will be interesting to see the trend. The UK has many more cases, but fewer hospitalizations than France:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases
The ranking of vaccinations will be telling, alas in an after the fact situation.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... OR~ISR~TUR
Lightsaber
http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211223000654
Hospitalization situation in Korea remain tight, and the government now force doctors to remove those who occupied coronavirus ICU beds more than 20 days away from their beds, hoping to ease the bed usage situation.
Toenga wrote:A question.
Does omricon displace delta, or do the two strains proceed in parallel?
Francoflier wrote:Toenga wrote:A question.
Does omricon displace delta, or do the two strains proceed in parallel?
I was asking myself the same.
I think we should get answers fairly quickly, since in many parts of North America and Europe, the Omicron wave is starting right in the middle of a Delta wave...
The Omicron will likely finish sooner than Delta would, so watching what happens next will be fascinating.
If they were to be mutually exclusive, I know I'd rather catch Omicron than Delta.
art wrote:Why do you think that omicron is likely to finish sooner than delta? I do not understand why omicron, a more contagious variant (strong evidence for that) that is less likely to kill the host (evidence building for that) should not outperform and eliminate delta where both are present.
art wrote:Francoflier wrote:Toenga wrote:A question.
Does omricon displace delta, or do the two strains proceed in parallel?
I was asking myself the same.
I think we should get answers fairly quickly, since in many parts of North America and Europe, the Omicron wave is starting right in the middle of a Delta wave...
The Omicron will likely finish sooner than Delta would, so watching what happens next will be fascinating.
If they were to be mutually exclusive, I know I'd rather catch Omicron than Delta.
Why do you think that omicron is likely to finish sooner than delta? I do not understand why omicron, a more contagious variant (strong evidence for that) that is less likely to kill the host (evidence building for that) should not outperform and eliminate delta where both are present.