Talk by British MD on University of Hong Kong study indicating that omicron reproduces at 7000% the rate of delta in the bronchial passages but at 10% the rate of delta in the lung alvioli.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84XMFVcLScw

As a layman I am encouraged. In my limited understanding, omicron may affect the passages to and from the lungs rather than the alvioli in the lungs where gas exchange takes place.

Talk about the University of Hong Kong study starts at 4min in the video.

art wrote:

Talk by British MD on University of Hong Kong study indicating that omicron reproduces at 7000% the rate of delta in the bronchial passages but at 10% the rate of delta in the lung alvioli.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84XMFVcLScw

As a layman I am encouraged. In my limited understanding, omicron may affect the passages to and from the lungs rather than the alvioli in the lungs where gas exchange takes place.

Talk about the University of Hong Kong study starts at 4min in the video.

I saw a portion of this video.

If this is in fact true then its very good news and would explain why this would be a milder variant. The body can fight the virus in the bronchial tubes (it just makes you cough and feel crappy) and the risk of pneumonia and the cytokine storms that really make covid life threatening are being mitigated.

Add in far more background immunity and its not the end of the world.

StarAC17 wrote:

art wrote:

Talk by British MD on University of Hong Kong study indicating that omicron reproduces at 7000% the rate of delta in the bronchial passages but at 10% the rate of delta in the lung alvioli.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84XMFVcLScw

I saw a portion of this video.

If this is in fact true then its very good news and would explain why this would be a milder variant. The body can fight the virus in the bronchial tubes (it just makes you cough and feel crappy) and the risk of pneumonia and the cytokine storms that really make covid life threatening are being mitigated.

Add in far more background immunity and its not the end of the world.

More data awaited... but could omicron be a godsend? Many, many more people infected but infected with a virus that does not seriously screw up our ability to get the O2 we want and to dump the CO2 we don't want.

Another comment on the video... talking of case data in hospitals, the doctor observed that half the people admitted to hospital in London suffering from COVID-19 omicron infection were not admitted due to COVID-19 treatment being needed. They were admitted for other medical reasons ie omicron infection was discovered in them but incidental to the reason they needed hospital treatment.

If 50% of the population had omicron and you were to test everyone who went to hospital when needing medical attention for whatever reason, the data would show that 50% of the people who went to hospital had omicron, wouldn't they?

art wrote:

More data awaited... but could omicron be a godsend? Many, many more people infected but infected with a virus that does not seriously screw up our ability to get the O2 we want and to dump the CO2 we don't want.

If it displaces Delta, or even replaces it completely by being the better breeder, then yes, Omicron may be the best thing to happen since this whole ordeal started.

Realistically though, it is just another flavor of a disease that will likely be with us for a long time to come.

The concern driving the lockdowns is due to pressure on the NHS.

For example, a person infected with coronavirus cannot attend their job as a healthcare worker (and even if you believe that Omicron is not a serious threat, it is a lengthy process to identify which variant is present, and furthermore it is unlikely that you can take risks in a job that requires working with vulnerable people), and if too many healthcare workers get Omicron then the healthcare industry would not be able to function. On top of that there is serious concern about the effect of Omicron on people who have other illnesses, especially as there will be a convergence of the flu season (which South Africa has a few months later than Europe).

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

The concern driving the lockdowns is due to pressure on the NHS.

For example, a person infected with coronavirus cannot attend their job as a healthcare worker....

Good point. There are reports of a steep rise in absenteeism in the health sector due to infection with COVID-19 and omicron only started to show in UK 3 weeks ago.

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

The concern driving the lockdowns is due to pressure on the NHS.

For example, a person infected with coronavirus cannot attend their job as a healthcare worker (and even if you believe that Omicron is not a serious threat, it is a lengthy process to identify which variant is present, and furthermore it is unlikely that you can take risks in a job that requires working with vulnerable people), and if too many healthcare workers get Omicron then the healthcare industry would not be able to function. On top of that there is serious concern about the effect of Omicron on people who have other illnesses, especially as there will be a convergence of the flu season (which South Africa has a few months later than Europe).

Well we have the South African data showing hospitalisation rates with the Omicron wave were 2/3rds less than the Delta wave. Now early data coming in from Denmark showing hospitalisation is 60% lower than in the Delta wave at comparable numbers.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/stat ... 41346?s=20

We were told that exponential growth in Omicron cases would negate it’s lower severity and end up overflowing hospitals anyway. It looks like the opposite is true, as Omicron outcompetes Delta it is clearing out hospitals. This is good news but barely being reported on by the media more interested in making fearmongering predictions rather than report actual events and outcomes.

sierrakilo44 wrote:

Well we have the South African data showing hospitalisation rates with the Omicron wave were 2/3rds less than the Delta wave. Now early data coming in from Denmark showing hospitalisation is 60% lower than in the Delta wave at comparable numbers.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/stat ... 41346?s=20

We were told that exponential growth in Omicron cases would negate it’s lower severity and end up overflowing hospitals anyway. It looks like the opposite is true, as Omicron outcompetes Delta it is clearing out hospitals. This is good news but barely being reported on by the media more interested in making fearmongering predictions rather than report actual events and outcomes.

A 'good' side effect of this may be that it accelerates progress towards herd immunity. The problem arises that if daily cases triple, quadruple or quintuple, it may result in increased demand on hospital care, increasing pressure on the resources available (exacerbated, too, by an increase in hospital staff absence due to a higher infection rate in them).

art wrote:

sierrakilo44 wrote:

Well we have the South African data showing hospitalisation rates with the Omicron wave were 2/3rds less than the Delta wave. Now early data coming in from Denmark showing hospitalisation is 60% lower than in the Delta wave at comparable numbers.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/stat ... 41346?s=20

We were told that exponential growth in Omicron cases would negate it’s lower severity and end up overflowing hospitals anyway. It looks like the opposite is true, as Omicron outcompetes Delta it is clearing out hospitals. This is good news but barely being reported on by the media more interested in making fearmongering predictions rather than report actual events and outcomes.

A 'good' side effect of this may be that it accelerates progress towards herd immunity. The problem arises that if daily cases triple, quadruple or quintuple, it may result in increased demand on hospital care, increasing pressure on the resources available (exacerbated, too, by an increase in hospital staff absence due to a higher infection rate in them).

A person infected with the Omicron strain attended a nightclub in Newcastle NSW (pop. 450,000) the weekend before last, when active Delta cases were in low double digits. As of today, there are 5,169 active cases in Newcastle. Vaccination in NSW is at 92.54% double dosed for 12+, although 87.7% for 20-29yo and 90% for 16-19yo.

14 of the 5,169 are being treated in hospital, with one in ICU. Around 30% of daily cases in NSW (pop. 8.1 million) are from Newcastle.

If 5,000 cases have been traced back to a single source less than 20 days earlier, that seems like a staggering increase to me. I wonder how many people left the nightclub having picked up the virus.

About 15 out of around 5,000 needing hospital treatment (so far) sounds very encouraging for the immediate future during which omicron infection is expected to spread explosively in countries in which it has been detected.

art wrote:

If 5,000 cases have been traced back to a single source less than 20 days earlier, that seems like a staggering increase to me. I wonder how many people left the nightclub having picked up the virus.

About 15 out of around 5,000 needing hospital treatment (so far) sounds very encouraging for the immediate future during which omicron infection is expected to spread explosively in countries in which it has been detected.

Around 125 from that one night at the nightclub have tested positive so far according to the local health service today, from approx. 650 fully vaxxed people (according to the rules in place) who had checked into the venue.

Another issue in the city has been staff who worked multiple venues in subsequent days. Well, also the fact that the known infected person had been directed to isolate but went out to the nightclub - and has been fined $20,000 as a result.

A beloved North Texas builder has died from COVID-19 and was behind a number of major projects in the DFW area. Abel Gallagos was the foreman behind the American Airlines Center, Glove Life Field, AT&T Stadium, and numerous other projects in the DFW area. He was not vaccinated and had suffered the virus for over a month and was hospitalized. Very sad to see such a great man pass and would not be surprised if his decision not to get vaccinated was influenced by the anti vaxxers spreading misinformation.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcdfw ... 029/%3famp

art wrote:

If 5,000 cases have been traced back to a single source less than 20 days earlier, that seems like a staggering increase to me. I wonder how many people left the nightclub having picked up the virus.

About 15 out of around 5,000 needing hospital treatment (so far) sounds very encouraging for the immediate future during which omicron infection is expected to spread explosively in countries in which it has been detected.

If this figure is close to the final figure, this is a 0.3% hospitalisation rate which is putting it close it common cold territory...
I am starting to be convinced that Omicron has very similar fatality rates with common cold while it is probably very potent at spreading. Making it almost like a naturally produced attenuated vaccine...

Of course we will need to wait for another couple of weeks for the figures to come out of the UK and Denmark.

If the figures confirm what I have been suspecting, then the hard lockdowns and hard borders will look rather silly.

Published 17 December...

South Africa sees fewer hospitalisations as omicron surges, say health officials

One public health specialist said that the number of people requiring oxygen seemed to be lower than previous waves

Fewer people have died or required hospital treatment from omicron in South Africa than in previous waves despite a record number of new infections, health officials said on Friday.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... urges-say/

yonahleung wrote:

If the figures confirm what I have been suspecting, then the hard lockdowns and hard borders will look rather silly.

One of Australia’s (a country hardly known for being soft on Covid) leading epidemiologists has stated after reviewing the data on Omicron there’s enough evidence to conclude Omicron is less serious than other variants, and he’s convinced it’s not going to cause a rise in hospitalisation like Delta:

https://www.3aw.com.au/leading-epidemio ... han-delta/

sierrakilo44 wrote:

yonahleung wrote:

If the figures confirm what I have been suspecting, then the hard lockdowns and hard borders will look rather silly.

One of Australia’s (a country hardly known for being soft on Covid) leading epidemiologists has stated after reviewing the data on Omicron there’s enough evidence to conclude Omicron is less serious than other variants, and he’s convinced it’s not going to cause a rise in hospitalisation like Delta:

https://www.3aw.com.au/leading-epidemio ... han-delta/

If it is half as virulent as delta but daily infections triple (which to me does not seem desperately unlikely in UK), we will have increased demand on services. Add in a flu epidemic and we will be looking at problems. I just hope it is a lot less than 50% as good as delta at pushing people into hospitals for treatment. Its saving grace to me will be if it attacks the bronchial passages (causing bronchitis?) rather than the lungs (causing pneumonia?)

I'm optimistic and luckily the few reports I have come across seem to point to it being less of a problem than delta to those who catch it. Good to swap over to it my eyes.

Sports around the world is being significantly affected by the rise of the newest variant of the Covid-19 virus. It has hit the US/Canadian National Hockey League, the USA's National Football League, the National Basketball League as well as many college games in the USA, English Premiere League football

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/329 ... -due-covid
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/329 ... use-season
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/329 ... on-variant
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/soccer ... NewsSearch

The NHL was going to take a break during the Winter Olympics, many players are from outside the USA and Canada and some were going to the Olympics to represent their National teams. The NHL is not going to allow any players to go to Beijing, they may need the break to make up for lost and rescheduled games.

One has to wonder that the Winter Olympics scheduled for February will see many participants drop out or not allowed by their teams or nations to go due to the high risk of Covid-19 infections.

art wrote:

If it is half as virulent as delta but daily infections triple (which to me does not seem desperately unlikely in UK), we will have increased demand on services. Add in a flu epidemic and we will be looking at problems. I just hope it is a lot less than 50% as good as delta at pushing people into hospitals for treatment.

The actual data we’re getting from hospitalisation is that Omicron is driving hospitalisation rates down compared to Delta. So the decreased severity of Omicron more than outweighs the increased infectiousness. That is great news:

https://mobile.twitter.com/sailorroosco ... 7740368898

https://mobile.twitter.com/covidgoodnew ... 7827295236

https://mobile.twitter.com/ollysmithtra ... 0821421062

https://mobile.twitter.com/BallouxFranc ... 5145240578

ltbewr wrote:

Sports around the world is being significantly affected by the rise of the newest variant of the Covid-19 virus. It has hit the US/Canadian National Hockey League, the USA's National Football League, the National Basketball League as well as many college games in the USA, English Premiere League football

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/329 ... -due-covid
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/329 ... use-season
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/329 ... on-variant
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/soccer ... NewsSearch

The NHL was going to take a break during the Winter Olympics, many players are from outside the USA and Canada and some were going to the Olympics to represent their National teams. The NHL is not going to allow any players to go to Beijing, they may need the break to make up for lost and rescheduled games.

One has to wonder that the Winter Olympics scheduled for February will see many participants drop out or not allowed by their teams or nations to go due to the high risk of Covid-19 infections.

I believe the reluctance is more due to onerous quarantine requirements especially if athletes testing positive to Covid. Especially now with the more transmissible (but less severe) Omicron variant it could force many people into quarantine unnecessarily.

I don’t think anyone believes professional athletes who are vaccinated are at high risk for serious complications from Covid. But governments need to realise the faster spread of a less severe variant means things like 14 day quarantine when travelling and days of quarantine if a close contact of a positive case is unworkable and will cause greater societal chaos than this new variant will.

Now it’s time to realise mass vaccination will protect the vulnerable and it’s time to transition back to handle it like how we handled the flu two years ago.

ltbewr wrote:

One has to wonder that the Winter Olympics scheduled for February will see many participants drop out or not allowed by their teams or nations to go due to the high risk of Covid-19 infections.

Sweet irony...

The thing about the Beijing Winter Olympics is I wonder if it will lead to an Omicron wave in China much like the Delta wave in Japan this summer around the Olympics.

I guess it was good timing on my part to leave Amsterdam and head back to the states on the 19th. Still miss it though. For the Dutch members how has the lockdown been going? Does the lockdown involve pretty much all places except essential like grocery stores being shut down? Any curfews?

Francoflier wrote:

Sweet irony...

Indeed, and I expect Omikron to hit really hard in China as their vaccine is almost ineffective against it.

yonahleung wrote:

The thing about the Beijing Winter Olympics is I wonder if it will lead to an Omicron wave in China much like the Delta wave in Japan this summer around the Olympics.

Delta wave in Japan started some months before the Olympic from Kansai

Zeppi wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

Sweet irony...

Indeed, and I expect Omikron to hit really hard in China as their vaccine is almost ineffective against it.

Does anyone have good data on 3 doses of SinoVac? There were preliminary good news, but I've yet to see the level of detail needed.
[i]
“It is not too far-fetched to think that [covid] is now only a mutation or two away from being pan-resistant to current antibodies,”
[/u]
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... uxbndlbing

Everyone will need a variant booster. We became lucky that boosted mRNA works. With how much Omicron has spread, that new variant isn't too far in the future.

Lightsaber

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... gests.html
Omicron infections no less severe than delta, early study suggests

[The] study assessed data from the U.K. Health Security Agency and U.K. health service for all PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infections in the area from Nov. 29-Dec. 11.

The study found hospitalization and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with omicron, suggesting limited changes in severity compared with delta.
---
While number of Omicron case in the UK in this time period is still relatively few as the article mentioned, thus the number of Omicron hospitalized patient are still limited for the analysis purpose, I think what it clearly show is that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of severity of Omicron being less before further data become available.

c933103 wrote:

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/omicron-infections-no-less-severe-than-delta-early-study-suggests.html
Omicron infections no less severe than delta, early study suggests

[The] study assessed data from the U.K. Health Security Agency and U.K. health service for all PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infections in the area from Nov. 29-Dec. 11.

The study found hospitalization and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with omicron, suggesting limited changes in severity compared with delta.
---
While number of Omicron case in the UK in this time period is still relatively few as the article mentioned, thus the number of Omicron hospitalized patient are still limited for the analysis purpose, I think what it clearly show is that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of severity of Omicron being less before further data become available.

I find it somewhat strange that this study of the effects of omicron is so different to the reports coming from South Africa (when compared to non-omicron COVID-19 infection) of a lower proportion of infectees (a) needing hospital treatment (b) requiring oxygen support (c) dying while being treated in hospital.

art wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/omicron-infections-no-less-severe-than-delta-early-study-suggests.html
Omicron infections no less severe than delta, early study suggests

[The] study assessed data from the U.K. Health Security Agency and U.K. health service for all PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infections in the area from Nov. 29-Dec. 11.

The study found hospitalization and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with omicron, suggesting limited changes in severity compared with delta.
---
While number of Omicron case in the UK in this time period is still relatively few as the article mentioned, thus the number of Omicron hospitalized patient are still limited for the analysis purpose, I think what it clearly show is that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of severity of Omicron being less before further data become available.

I find it somewhat strange that this study of the effects of omicron is so different to the reports coming from South Africa (when compared to non-omicron COVID-19 infection) of a lower proportion of infectees (a) needing hospital treatment (b) requiring oxygen support (c) dying while being treated in hospital.

The excess deaths spiked in South Africa. Since they went up with Omicron...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch


Also, South Africa has cut testing with a positivity rate above 30%. Something is wrong with their numbers. Unfortunately, London and New York City will be telling us the truth. Note, for all I know SA ran short of test kits. But when deaths are mysteriously up, with 2,000 excess deaths per week and testing insufficient by any benchmark I've read (positivity < 5% is the number I hear doctors talk about), we need to have more information.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/so ... -two-weeks

I personally believe the UK is very thorough in their studies. We will find out over the next 5 weeks who was right. South Africa already has a high death rate and yet they have seen 270,000 excess deaths since this pandemic started (recall excess deaths are in addition to the expected deaths):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... th-africa/

The life expectancy at birth is 64.1 years. What I base my high death rate comment upon:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/Z ... expectancy


Lightsaber

At the same time, with 4700 Omicron-cases confirmed since November 28th, which officials say is just the tip of the ice-berg since only a fraction is sequenced to identify variation, Norway has seen -1- person shortly hospitalized with Omicron.
(Source NRK, FHI, DB.NO, VG.NO)

lightsaber wrote:

art wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/omicron-infections-no-less-severe-than-delta-early-study-suggests.html
Omicron infections no less severe than delta, early study suggests

[The] study assessed data from the U.K. Health Security Agency and U.K. health service for all PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infections in the area from Nov. 29-Dec. 11.

The study found hospitalization and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with omicron, suggesting limited changes in severity compared with delta.
---
While number of Omicron case in the UK in this time period is still relatively few as the article mentioned, thus the number of Omicron hospitalized patient are still limited for the analysis purpose, I think what it clearly show is that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of severity of Omicron being less before further data become available.

I find it somewhat strange that this study of the effects of omicron is so different to the reports coming from South Africa (when compared to non-omicron COVID-19 infection) of a lower proportion of infectees (a) needing hospital treatment (b) requiring oxygen support (c) dying while being treated in hospital.

The excess deaths spiked in South Africa. Since they went up with Omicron...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch


Also, South Africa has cut testing with a positivity rate above 30%. Something is wrong with their numbers. Unfortunately, London and New York City will be telling us the truth. Note, for all I know SA ran short of test kits. But when deaths are mysteriously up, with 2,000 excess deaths per week and testing insufficient by any benchmark I've read (positivity < 5% is the number I hear doctors talk about), we need to have more information.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/so ... -two-weeks

I personally believe the UK is very thorough in their studies. We will find out over the next 5 weeks who was right. South Africa already has a high death rate and yet they have seen 270,000 excess deaths since this pandemic started (recall excess deaths are in addition to the expected deaths):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... th-africa/

The life expectancy at birth is 64.1 years. What I base my high death rate comment upon:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/Z ... expectancy


Lightsaber

I found a more quantified South African link. 80% reduction in hospitalizations.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

However, that link notes 60% to 70% of South Africans had prior coronavirus (many in my opinion recent). When vaccinations are included, I can only estimate the fraction vulnerable, but it would be only 20% or so of the population (I admit to high uncertainty in that number). The concerning thing is how South Africa had 270,000 excess deaths in a young population to achieve that level of societal immunity. (See prior post for link).

I have a working hypothesis: Both numbers seem to be correct. It seems as if lower severity in vaccinated or prior exposure. However equal severity to those with no prior immunity.

Lightsaber

M564038 wrote:

At the same time, with 4700 Omicron-cases confirmed since November 28th, which officials say is just the tip of the ice-berg since only a fraction is sequenced to identify variation, Norway has seen -1- person shortly hospitalized with Omicron.
(Source NRK, FHI, DB.NO, VG.NO)

lightsaber wrote:

art wrote:

I find it somewhat strange that this study of the effects of omicron is so different to the reports coming from South Africa (when compared to non-omicron COVID-19 infection) of a lower proportion of infectees (a) needing hospital treatment (b) requiring oxygen support (c) dying while being treated in hospital.

The excess deaths spiked in South Africa. Since they went up with Omicron...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch


Also, South Africa has cut testing with a positivity rate above 30%. Something is wrong with their numbers. Unfortunately, London and New York City will be telling us the truth. Note, for all I know SA ran short of test kits. But when deaths are mysteriously up, with 2,000 excess deaths per week and testing insufficient by any benchmark I've read (positivity < 5% is the number I hear doctors talk about), we need to have more information.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/so ... -two-weeks

I personally believe the UK is very thorough in their studies. We will find out over the next 5 weeks who was right. South Africa already has a high death rate and yet they have seen 270,000 excess deaths since this pandemic started (recall excess deaths are in addition to the expected deaths):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... th-africa/

The life expectancy at birth is 64.1 years. What I base my high death rate comment upon:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/Z ... expectancy


Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

I found a more quantified South African link. 80% reduction in hospitalizations.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

However, that link notes 60% to 70% of South Africans had prior coronavirus (many in my opinion recent). When vaccinations are included, I can only estimate the fraction vulnerable, but it would be only 20% or so of the population (I admit to high uncertainty in that number). The concerning thing is how South Africa had 270,000 excess deaths in a young population to achieve that level of societal immunity. (See prior post for link).

I have a working hypothesis: Both numbers seem to be correct. It seems as if lower severity in vaccinated or prior exposure. However equal severity to those with no prior immunity.

Lightsaber

M564038 wrote:

At the same time, with 4700 Omicron-cases confirmed since November 28th, which officials say is just the tip of the ice-berg since only a fraction is sequenced to identify variation, Norway has seen -1- person shortly hospitalized with Omicron.
(Source NRK, FHI, DB.NO, VG.NO)

lightsaber wrote:

The excess deaths spiked in South Africa. Since they went up with Omicron...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch


Also, South Africa has cut testing with a positivity rate above 30%. Something is wrong with their numbers. Unfortunately, London and New York City will be telling us the truth. Note, for all I know SA ran short of test kits. But when deaths are mysteriously up, with 2,000 excess deaths per week and testing insufficient by any benchmark I've read (positivity < 5% is the number I hear doctors talk about), we need to have more information.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/so ... -two-weeks

I personally believe the UK is very thorough in their studies. We will find out over the next 5 weeks who was right. South Africa already has a high death rate and yet they have seen 270,000 excess deaths since this pandemic started (recall excess deaths are in addition to the expected deaths):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... th-africa/

The life expectancy at birth is 64.1 years. What I base my high death rate comment upon:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/Z ... expectancy


Lightsaber

But then UK also have 70% population 2-dose vaccinated, in addition to those who had prior infection

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I found a more quantified South African link. 80% reduction in hospitalizations.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

However, that link notes 60% to 70% of South Africans had prior coronavirus (many in my opinion recent). When vaccinations are included, I can only estimate the fraction vulnerable, but it would be only 20% or so of the population (I admit to high uncertainty in that number). The concerning thing is how South Africa had 270,000 excess deaths in a young population to achieve that level of societal immunity. (See prior post for link).

I have a working hypothesis: Both numbers seem to be correct. It seems as if lower severity in vaccinated or prior exposure. However equal severity to those with no prior immunity.

Lightsaber

M564038 wrote:

At the same time, with 4700 Omicron-cases confirmed since November 28th, which officials say is just the tip of the ice-berg since only a fraction is sequenced to identify variation, Norway has seen -1- person shortly hospitalized with Omicron.
(Source NRK, FHI, DB.NO, VG.NO)

But then UK also have 70% population 2-dose vaccinated, in addition to those who had prior infection

England
77% 1 dose
70% 2 doses
46% 3 doses
Source: NHS England
UK
17% infected + recovered (assuming no repeat infection of any people)
02% active cases
Source: worldometers.info

I do not know the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated for the infected + recovered figure, so something between 77% and 96% of the population has some protection from a single dose of vaccine or previous infection or is currently infected.

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I found a more quantified South African link. 80% reduction in hospitalizations.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

However, that link notes 60% to 70% of South Africans had prior coronavirus (many in my opinion recent). When vaccinations are included, I can only estimate the fraction vulnerable, but it would be only 20% or so of the population (I admit to high uncertainty in that number). The concerning thing is how South Africa had 270,000 excess deaths in a young population to achieve that level of societal immunity. (See prior post for link).

I have a working hypothesis: Both numbers seem to be correct. It seems as if lower severity in vaccinated or prior exposure. However equal severity to those with no prior immunity.

Lightsaber

M564038 wrote:

At the same time, with 4700 Omicron-cases confirmed since November 28th, which officials say is just the tip of the ice-berg since only a fraction is sequenced to identify variation, Norway has seen -1- person shortly hospitalized with Omicron.
(Source NRK, FHI, DB.NO, VG.NO)

But then UK also have 70% population 2-dose vaccinated, in addition to those who had prior infection

A fair and valid point. I see the issue being very reduced hospital staffing as they seem to be catching Omicron in their social lives:

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/euro ... themselves

We'll wait for more data. The Swiss Cheese model still applies.

Lightsaber

art wrote:

England
77% 1 dose
70% 2 doses
46% 3 doses
Source: NHS England
UK
17% infected + recovered (assuming no repeat infection of any people)
02% active cases
Source: worldometers.info

I do not know the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated for the infected + recovered figure, so something between 77% and 96% of the population has some protection from a single dose of vaccine or previous infection or is currently infected.

Here is the latest study I could find on the prevalence of Covid antibodies in the UK population:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... antibodies

90 to 95% across the UK... It's fair to say that between 2 years of spread and a vast majority of vaccinated people, almost everyone has some level of antibodies by now.

Updated UK hospitalizations:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... a-suggests

The Omicron variant of coronavirus appears to be milder, with a 20%-25% reduced chance of a hospital visit and at least a 40% lower risk of being admitted overnight, the first UK data of its kind has showed.

...
Ferguson said that while it was “good news”, the assessment did not substantially change Sage modelling pointing to 3,000 daily hospitalisations in England at the peak of the wave next month without restrictions beyond the plan B measures currently in place.
...
Those hospitalised with Omicron had on average shorter stays – 0.22 days compared with 0.32 days for Delta – but more data is needed, particularly in older age groups among whom Omicron is currently less prevalent. It is too early to assess the risk of admission to intensive care and death, but the researchers say greater reductions in risk are possible.
...
The Scottish study, which has yet to be peer reviewed, is based on small numbers and most Omicron cases were in people aged 20 to 39, meaning researchers were unable to assess the severity of the disease in elderly people who are more vulnerable.


Those numbers are a bit pessimistic due to the speed of infections. Less risk, just the risk will be realized fast.


Lightsaber

ps
When I look at hospitalizations:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations
USA: flat at a high level (is mostly Delta so far due to the time lag, to be fair)
UK: Flat at a moderate level
France: Going up quickly (to be fair, that should mostly be Delta, in my opinion).
Israel: 150 in hospital vs. a peak of 2,197.

Is an abundance of caution exacerbating the effect of omicron on the UK health service? I heard on the BBC news that in London absenteeism in health workers in the acute medical care sector doubled in one week. I suspect that the main cause of this rise in absenteeism is the need for people to isolate for a number of days when they have been in contact with a COVID-19 infectee. Health care workers cannot provide health care if they do not work. Would it be better to ask them to test each day they are scheduled to work and only if positive, stay at home instead of working?

As the numbers are starting to rise again, it still remains clear that the Unvaccinated are the most at risk.

It still remains to be seen how Omicron will affect the general population, but the ICU is full of the Unvaccinated.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/100-of ... /20045587/

More than 1,600 people are battling COVID-19 from a hospital bed in North Carolina, the highest level in the state in two months.

Duke Health tells WRAL News that 100% of their COVID-19 patients in the ICU or on life-saving treatment are unvaccinated.


A little more than a quarter of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in North Carolina are on ventilators, according to data from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. In the Raleigh area, there are only 7 ICU beds left.

In some areas in North Carolina, hospitalizations have more than doubled. Duke Health saw a 50% increase in people being hospitalized for COVID-19 this month and UNC Health has seen the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations go from 77 to 180.

casinterest wrote:

As the numbers are starting to rise again, it still remains clear that the Unvaccinated are the most at risk.

It still remains to be seen how Omicron will affect the general population, but the ICU is full of the Unvaccinated.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/100-of ... /20045587/

More than 1,600 people are battling COVID-19 from a hospital bed in North Carolina, the highest level in the state in two months.

Duke Health tells WRAL News that 100% of their COVID-19 patients in the ICU or on life-saving treatment are unvaccinated.


A little more than a quarter of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in North Carolina are on ventilators, according to data from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. In the Raleigh area, there are only 7 ICU beds left.

In some areas in North Carolina, hospitalizations have more than doubled. Duke Health saw a 50% increase in people being hospitalized for COVID-19 this month and UNC Health has seen the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations go from 77 to 180.

Community health network of Indiana reports 96% of patients unvaccinated:
https://www.wthr.com/article/news/verif ... 81b9f1dede

At my relatives area, it is 85% (I check to see if I should say "hi" or do not disturb.).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

It will be interesting to see the trend. The UK has many more cases, but fewer hospitalizations than France:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases


The ranking of vaccinations will be telling, alas in an after the fact situation.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... OR~ISR~TUR


Lightsaber

Correction to my post #236 above:

I heard on the BBC news that in London absenteeism in health workers in the acute medical care sector doubled in one week

I should have said the BBC news reported that absenteeism rose by half in one week.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BBC TV news reports that in Australia the New South Wales government health minister has proposed charging unvaccinated COVID-19 patients for their treatment if they require hospital treatment for COVID-19.

If so, I see an ethical debate coming.

lightsaber wrote:

casinterest wrote:

As the numbers are starting to rise again, it still remains clear that the Unvaccinated are the most at risk.

It still remains to be seen how Omicron will affect the general population, but the ICU is full of the Unvaccinated.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/100-of ... /20045587/

More than 1,600 people are battling COVID-19 from a hospital bed in North Carolina, the highest level in the state in two months.

Duke Health tells WRAL News that 100% of their COVID-19 patients in the ICU or on life-saving treatment are unvaccinated.


A little more than a quarter of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in North Carolina are on ventilators, according to data from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. In the Raleigh area, there are only 7 ICU beds left.

In some areas in North Carolina, hospitalizations have more than doubled. Duke Health saw a 50% increase in people being hospitalized for COVID-19 this month and UNC Health has seen the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations go from 77 to 180.

Community health network of Indiana reports 96% of patients unvaccinated:
https://www.wthr.com/article/news/verif ... 81b9f1dede

At my relatives area, it is 85% (I check to see if I should say "hi" or do not disturb.).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

It will be interesting to see the trend. The UK has many more cases, but fewer hospitalizations than France:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases


The ranking of vaccinations will be telling, alas in an after the fact situation.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... OR~ISR~TUR


Lightsaber

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211223000654
Hospitalization situation in Korea remain tight, and the government now force doctors to remove those who occupied coronavirus ICU beds more than 20 days away from their beds, hoping to ease the bed usage situation.

art wrote:

BBC TV news reports that in Australia the New South Wales government health minister has proposed charging unvaccinated COVID-19 patients for their treatment if they require hospital treatment for COVID-19.

If so, I see an ethical debate coming.

Yes. They should absolutely do this. Every country should.

There is no ethical debate as far as I'm concerned. If one refuses the protection afforded by the vaccine, then they should not expect anyone else to pay for their medical bill. There would be an ethical debate if they were refused care, but this is not the case.

I wonder why (if?) private health insurers haven't started increasing premiums for non-vaccinated. Insurance companies work off of numbers, and their numbers must be staring to tell them that unvaccinated are costing more... They charge smokers more for the same reason.

art wrote:

BBC TV news reports that in Australia the New South Wales government health minister has proposed charging unvaccinated COVID-19 patients for their treatment if they require hospital treatment for COVID-19.

If so, I see an ethical debate coming.

The reason why coronavirus treatment charge are being waived in most countries since early 2020 is because of infectious nature of the disease, that if someone have the disease but didn't seek treatment then it'd hurt the public health.
I think this policy stop make sense as soon as milder or asymptomatic patients stop being required to hospitalized, and that the society start accepting coronavirus is a disease that will live with us.
As long as one accepted that coronavirus will stay in the society, then whether a patient getting charged for treatment or not should be no different from how a flu or cancer patient are being deal with, I think. It's not like a flu patient or a cancer patient willingly get a flu or a cancer either.

art wrote:

Correction to my post #236 above:

I heard on the BBC news that in London absenteeism in health workers in the acute medical care sector doubled in one week

I should have said the BBC news reported that absenteeism rose by half in one week.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BBC TV news reports that in Australia the New South Wales government health minister has proposed charging unvaccinated COVID-19 patients for their treatment if they require hospital treatment for COVID-19.

If so, I see an ethical debate coming.

It was somewhat libertarian posturing, with almost all stakeholders coming out against the proposal.

It did highlight however that the unvaccinated are massively overrepresented in Covid hospitalisations. The reality, at least in Australia, is that you are unlikely to require hospitalisation if at least two dose vaccianted and otherwise healthy when you contract Covid.

In NSW, our health challenge is not beds in hospitals or ICUs, rather staffing hospitals when staff are being directed to isolate following Covid exposure, primarily in social settings.

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

casinterest wrote:

As the numbers are starting to rise again, it still remains clear that the Unvaccinated are the most at risk.

It still remains to be seen how Omicron will affect the general population, but the ICU is full of the Unvaccinated.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/100-of ... /20045587/

Community health network of Indiana reports 96% of patients unvaccinated:
https://www.wthr.com/article/news/verif ... 81b9f1dede

At my relatives area, it is 85% (I check to see if I should say "hi" or do not disturb.).
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

It will be interesting to see the trend. The UK has many more cases, but fewer hospitalizations than France:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases


The ranking of vaccinations will be telling, alas in an after the fact situation.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... OR~ISR~TUR


Lightsaber

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211223000654
Hospitalization situation in Korea remain tight, and the government now force doctors to remove those who occupied coronavirus ICU beds more than 20 days away from their beds, hoping to ease the bed usage situation.

That is brutal. I prefer the US system of triage points.
Points are negative. You do not want points. Between my age and a coronavirus long haul symptom, I get 2 points. Points represent effort expected vs. expected quality of life. If more effort is expected to save someone, they get points. If the quality of life is expected to be bad or short, you get points.

My Uncle Tom was expelled from a Florida hospital as everyone with coronavirus with 5+ points was expelled after 3 days.
Age gives you points. Age 50 1 point, then 1 point at age 60, and one point for every 5 years older.

Cancer is 1 to 7 points.(worse cancer, more points, in remission always 1+)
Kidney issues 1 to 5 points
Obesity 1 point. Morbid obesity 1 more point, every 5 more BMI, a point.
A waist greater than 94 cm (37"), a point
HIV 1 to 9 points
Heart issues 1 to 5 points
etc.

My relative in the hospital had a healthy 17 year old boy for over 30 days. I wouldn't have wanted him sent home as eventually he recovered. It also means those with flu+Covid19 are doomed (often over 7 weeks per the doctors I talked to).

Also, my uncle had money and that didn't change anything. He was sent home on the expectation of death and instead relatives nursed him to health (he was sent home with oxygen and all the medication required). That, oddly, seemed fair to have no regard for social standing when expelling someone from the hospital.

My concern it the negative side of triage happens again on a large scale. One reason the elderly die is they are the first expelled from a level of care. I really hope that those saying the old and obese are dying realize, in many cases, that is the brutal downside of triage.

In South Korea, it will have no weighing based on expected future life. It will just be too much bed time consumed. I say this knowing my Dad has 8 points, my Mom 6, and my best friend's parents 6 pts each. The downside of knowing coronavirus doctors is understanding the mathematics of defeat.

Lightsaber

Do you get points for not being vaccinated? Prognosis is worse, isn't it?

A question.
Does omricon displace delta, or do the two strains proceed in parallel?
The NSW chief health officer confirms that omricon now makes up 80% of NSW. cases.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rules.html
So about 1000 of yesterday's cases,
But about a month ago NSW was reporting only about 200 cases a day, all delta, after daily case numbers of delta had been well over 1000 a month earlier.

Toenga wrote:

A question.
Does omricon displace delta, or do the two strains proceed in parallel?

I was asking myself the same.
I think we should get answers fairly quickly, since in many parts of North America and Europe, the Omicron wave is starting right in the middle of a Delta wave...
The Omicron will likely finish sooner than Delta would, so watching what happens next will be fascinating.

If they were to be mutually exclusive, I know I'd rather catch Omicron than Delta.

Francoflier wrote:

Toenga wrote:

A question.
Does omricon displace delta, or do the two strains proceed in parallel?

I was asking myself the same.
I think we should get answers fairly quickly, since in many parts of North America and Europe, the Omicron wave is starting right in the middle of a Delta wave...
The Omicron will likely finish sooner than Delta would, so watching what happens next will be fascinating.

If they were to be mutually exclusive, I know I'd rather catch Omicron than Delta.

Why do you think that omicron is likely to finish sooner than delta? I do not understand why omicron, a more contagious variant (strong evidence for that) that is less likely to kill the host (evidence building for that) should not outperform and eliminate delta where both are present.

art wrote:

Why do you think that omicron is likely to finish sooner than delta? I do not understand why omicron, a more contagious variant (strong evidence for that) that is less likely to kill the host (evidence building for that) should not outperform and eliminate delta where both are present.

I hope it does replace Delta. It's a much better virus to have around ('less worse' is probably a better way to put it).

Note that I didn't say that Omicron would finish sooner than Delta, only that its wave(s) will end sooner, simply by virtue of infecting all the available targets much faster. It also seems to produce symptoms which don't last as long and which appear sooner.
As for its overall viability in the long term, who knows... Delta seems to have been quite successful at sticking around for a while and creating multiple successive waves. I don't know if it will survive this new competitor but I'd rather it lost its evolutionary advantage in favor of something less severe.
Omicron may be the variant that brings us closer to endemicity.

art wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

Toenga wrote:

A question.
Does omricon displace delta, or do the two strains proceed in parallel?

I was asking myself the same.
I think we should get answers fairly quickly, since in many parts of North America and Europe, the Omicron wave is starting right in the middle of a Delta wave...
The Omicron will likely finish sooner than Delta would, so watching what happens next will be fascinating.

If they were to be mutually exclusive, I know I'd rather catch Omicron than Delta.

Why do you think that omicron is likely to finish sooner than delta? I do not understand why omicron, a more contagious variant (strong evidence for that) that is less likely to kill the host (evidence building for that) should not outperform and eliminate delta where both are present.

Hard to say how this will play out. L452R mutation - aka strains like Delta - was having 95%+ prevalent rate in Tokyo this summer according to TV program I watched, but few weeks ago when I check the Tokyo government official site, it dropped to ~50%, and that's before Omicron arrive.