Crazy MLB Postseason / Wildcard Draw - Predictions?

Aaron747 · Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:02 pm

Wild stuff happening to close out 2021 MLB regular season - game 162 matters from coast to coast. There are four teams in the running for the AL wild card - which has never happened before. There's a real possibility of a four-way tie when all is said and done today...and other chaos is possible too. (Can anyone believe there are four AL East teams with 90 or more wins??) Who will remain standing among NYY, BOS, SEA, and the Jays??

Among the scenarios, from CBS Sports:

Here's what happens next:

Two teams tie for one wild card: Very straightforward. One-game tiebreaker with home-field advantage going to the team with the better head-to-head record.
Three teams tie for one wild card: Teams A, B and C are assigned as noted above and they play as noted above -- i.e., B at A, followed by the winner of A-B at home against C with the bid at stake.
Four teams tie for both wild cards: Team A plays Team B, and Team C plays Team D. The winners of those two games meet in the AL Wild Card Game.
Three teams tie for both wild cards: Game 1: Team B at Team A, winner gets wild card; Game 2: Team C at loser of Game 1, winner gets remaining wild card.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2021 ... -the-wire/

Clinching the NL West has also gone down to the wire, with SF and LA at 106 and 105 wins respectively. Their fates are easier to determine today, but if they end up tied, they'll play a one-game playoff in SF to determine the division crown and top NL wild card seed. Whoever ends up in the NL wild card game will face red hot STL, and there's interesting stats to note there:

The Dodgers since September 1 are 21-7 (.750), going 12-0 at home
The Giants since September 1 are 22-7 (.759), going 11-6 at home
One of them on Wednesday will face:
The Cardinals since September 1 are 23-8 (.742), going 13-3 on the road

https://twitter.com/BillyBall/status/14 ... 65921?s=20

Among other strangeness, due to the COVID short season effect last year, this has been the year of pitching fatigue. For the first time in history, the AL will complete a season with no starter throwing over 200 innings.

No pitcher in the American League will hit 200 innings this season and there are currently only 13 qualifiers for the AL ERA title. There has never been a full season in which a league did not have a 200-inning pitcher.

https://twitter.com/EliasSports/status/ ... 86722?s=20

vikkyvik · Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:53 pm

Just glad the Sox managed a comeback win yesterday over the Nats (even though the Nats are my NL team).

With that said, I hate, hate, HATE the wildcard game. In my mind, it's not even a post-season game. It's just game 163. You don't "really" make the post-season until you win that game.

Post-season meetings should NEVER be decided by a single game. Wild-card round should be a 3-game series.

Anyway, rant aside, looking forward to Sox-Yanks tomorrow.

Quite a sports week for me. Sox end the season with a comeback win and get home field in the wildcard game, Pats face Brady and almost pull it off, and now the Sox face the Yanks in the wildcard.

These are the weeks that take years off of my life.

Aaron747 · Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:14 pm

vikkyvik wrote:
Just glad the Sox managed a comeback win yesterday over the Nats (even though the Nats are my NL team).

With that said, I hate, hate, HATE the wildcard game. In my mind, it's not even a post-season game. It's just game 163. You don't "really" make the post-season until you win that game.

Post-season meetings should NEVER be decided by a single game. Wild-card round should be a 3-game series.

Anyway, rant aside, looking forward to Sox-Yanks tomorrow.

Quite a sports week for me. Sox end the season with a comeback win and get home field in the wildcard game, Pats face Brady and almost pull it off, and now the Sox face the Yanks in the wildcard.

These are the weeks that take years off of my life.

And just think - the winner gets to play the well-rested Rays, for added fun!

Newark727 · Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:53 pm

Well the Dodgers did their bit yesterday, but the Padres didn't, so we're denied a one-game playoff for the NL West pennant. Crazy to win 106 games, but not the division. I do sort of miss the wild card one-game playoff being something special and unique, rather than being literally required every season.

Aaron747 · Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:03 pm

Newark727 wrote:
Well the Dodgers did their bit yesterday, but the Padres didn't, so we're denied a one-game playoff for the NL West pennant. Crazy to win 106 games, but not the division. I do sort of miss the wild card one-game playoff being something special and unique, rather than being literally required every season.

Both SF and LA dominated other NL west matchups all year - not sure why you'd expect the Padres to do anything significant. They lost 22 of their last 30.

Newark727 · Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:06 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Well the Dodgers did their bit yesterday, but the Padres didn't, so we're denied a one-game playoff for the NL West pennant. Crazy to win 106 games, but not the division. I do sort of miss the wild card one-game playoff being something special and unique, rather than being literally required every season.

Both SF and LA dominated other NL west matchups all year - not sure why you'd expect the Padres to do anything significant. They lost 22 of their last 30.

I mean, I kind of didn't. As a Dodger fan, it just would've been nice to avoid the wild card game against Adam Wainwright.

wingman · Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:13 pm

I think the 106 games for second place is a record. Even if the Giants don't go all the way this year it was a pure joy to watch the team do what it did against all expert predictions of their demise from Game 1 through Game 120.

Aaron747 · Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:26 pm

Newark727 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Well the Dodgers did their bit yesterday, but the Padres didn't, so we're denied a one-game playoff for the NL West pennant. Crazy to win 106 games, but not the division. I do sort of miss the wild card one-game playoff being something special and unique, rather than being literally required every season.

Both SF and LA dominated other NL west matchups all year - not sure why you'd expect the Padres to do anything significant. They lost 22 of their last 30.

I mean, I kind of didn't. As a Dodger fan, it just would've been nice to avoid the wild card game against Adam Wainwright.

Could have avoided it by playing better against NL Central in April/May. What was that, like 10 losses combined to CIN/CHC/MIL?

Newark727 · Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:30 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Could have avoided it by playing better against NL Central in April/May. What was that, like 10 losses combined to CIN/CHC/MIL?

I will not deny that the 2021 Dodgers are maybe the worst 100-game winners I've ever seen. April was a dark time.

FGITD · Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:15 pm

vikkyvik wrote:
Just glad the Sox managed a comeback win yesterday over the Nats (even though the Nats are my NL team).

With that said, I hate, hate, HATE the wildcard game. In my mind, it's not even a post-season game. It's just game 163. You don't "really" make the post-season until you win that game.

Post-season meetings should NEVER be decided by a single game. Wild-card round should be a 3-game series.

Anyway, rant aside, looking forward to Sox-Yanks tomorrow.

Quite a sports week for me. Sox end the season with a comeback win and get home field in the wildcard game, Pats face Brady and almost pull it off, and now the Sox face the Yanks in the wildcard.

These are the weeks that take years off of my life.

Have to agree on the 1 game system. There’s a reason the name Bucky Dent haunted the Sox for years, and it’s partially because it was such a noteworthy and unique game…that he completely ruined for Boston. These days though…we have a game like that every season. In the modern age, Dent would barely be a footnote in the history of either the Yankees or Sox for that game. (As it were, he’s the reason the Green Monster is full of dings from being hit….never dents)

It just reeks of artificially manufactured playoff tension

Aaron747 · Tue Oct 05, 2021 12:49 am

FGITD wrote:
vikkyvik wrote:
Just glad the Sox managed a comeback win yesterday over the Nats (even though the Nats are my NL team).

With that said, I hate, hate, HATE the wildcard game. In my mind, it's not even a post-season game. It's just game 163. You don't "really" make the post-season until you win that game.

Post-season meetings should NEVER be decided by a single game. Wild-card round should be a 3-game series.

Anyway, rant aside, looking forward to Sox-Yanks tomorrow.

Quite a sports week for me. Sox end the season with a comeback win and get home field in the wildcard game, Pats face Brady and almost pull it off, and now the Sox face the Yanks in the wildcard.

These are the weeks that take years off of my life.

Have to agree on the 1 game system. There’s a reason the name Bucky Dent haunted the Sox for years, and it’s partially because it was such a noteworthy and unique game…that he completely ruined for Boston. These days though…we have a game like that every season. In the modern age, Dent would barely be a footnote in the history of either the Yankees or Sox for that game. (As it were, he’s the reason the Green Monster is full of dings from being hit….never dents)

It just reeks of artificially manufactured playoff tension

Maybe a better solution would be making the divisions symbolic and seeding the postseason in each league based only on winning percentage.

Newark727 · Tue Oct 05, 2021 12:51 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Maybe a better solution would be making the divisions symbolic and seeding the postseason in each league based only on winning percentage.

I don't know, I feel like they're pretty invested in the idea that division rivalries = $$$ and wouldn't want to dilute that.

Aaron747 · Tue Oct 05, 2021 12:58 am

Newark727 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Maybe a better solution would be making the divisions symbolic and seeding the postseason in each league based only on winning percentage.

I don't know, I feel like they're pretty invested in the idea that division rivalries = $$$ and wouldn't want to dilute that.

Wouldn't change the situation much if Yanks and BoSox were both hovering between .590 and .600 and same in NL or AL west rivalries.

vikkyvik · Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:32 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Maybe a better solution would be making the divisions symbolic and seeding the postseason in each league based only on winning percentage.

I don't really have a problem with the divisions. Just think that no playoff contest should be decided by a single game.

Having two teams win a wildcard is ridiculous if they then have to play one game to determine which of them advances.

Aaron747 · Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:26 pm

vikkyvik wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Maybe a better solution would be making the divisions symbolic and seeding the postseason in each league based only on winning percentage.

I don't really have a problem with the divisions. Just think that no playoff contest should be decided by a single game.

Having two teams win a wildcard is ridiculous if they then have to play one game to determine which of them advances.

I'm sure either the Yanks or Sox will feel the same way you do by the end of tonight

Alias1024 · Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:03 pm

Agreed on the one game playoff. Such a dumb idea. Glad the Giants managed to avoid it, but I ALMOST feel sorry for the Dodgers having to play in it after winning 106 games.

Aaron747 · Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:16 pm

At no time should anyone feel sorry for the Dodgers...like ever. Except for Vin Scully Day...that’s an exception.

Newark727 · Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:21 pm

The Dodgers' September was good, but the Cardinals' was just unreal. If they win, they deserve it.

mke717spotter · Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:19 pm

The Brewers lost 12 of their last 18 games to finish the season. Meanwhile, their opponent, the Braves, won 12 of their final 14. The Brewers will also be missing one of their top bullpen arms (2020 NL ROY Devin Williams) and ever since Christian Yelich smashed the ball off his knee in 2019 he's been downright mediocre. They've still got enough quality pitching to potentially get them through this first round but there's plenty of reasons to be pessimistic.

vikkyvik wrote:
With that said, I hate, hate, HATE the wildcard game. In my mind, it's not even a post-season game. It's just game 163. You don't "really" make the post-season until you win that game.

I don't understand why teams pop the champagne and have crazy celebrations in the clubhouse just for making it into the wild card game. I get that its a long season and that officially its considered part of the playoffs, but for me its still more of a play-in game.

FGITD · Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:40 pm

mke717spotter wrote:

vikkyvik wrote:
With that said, I hate, hate, HATE the wildcard game. In my mind, it's not even a post-season game. It's just game 163. You don't "really" make the post-season until you win that game.

I don't understand why teams pop the champagne and have crazy celebrations in the clubhouse just for making it into the wild card game. I get that its a long season and that officially its considered part of the playoffs, but for me its still more of a play-in game.

I think it’s done just to sell those awful playoff shirts and hats.

I get celebrating if you’re a team that never makes the post season or had a massive end of season rally to get across the finish line. But teams like the Sox or Yankees? The wild card shouldn’t be celebrated too much. In the grand scheme, the fans expect much more from organizations like that.

I like the NHL approach. It’s good to win, but matters less until it’s the cup.

NIKV69 · Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:31 pm

vikkyvik wrote:
Just glad the Sox managed a comeback win yesterday over the Nats (even though the Nats are my NL team).

With that said, I hate, hate, HATE the wildcard game. In my mind, it's not even a post-season game. It's just game 163. You don't "really" make the post-season until you win that game.

Post-season meetings should NEVER be decided by a single game. Wild-card round should be a 3-game series.

Anyway, rant aside, looking forward to Sox-Yanks tomorrow.

Quite a sports week for me. Sox end the season with a comeback win and get home field in the wildcard game, Pats face Brady and almost pull it off, and now the Sox face the Yanks in the wildcard.

These are the weeks that take years off of my life.

I feel the same way

Aaron747 · Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:06 am

vikkyvik wrote:
Just glad the Sox managed a comeback win yesterday over the Nats (even though the Nats are my NL team).

With that said, I hate, hate, HATE the wildcard game. In my mind, it's not even a post-season game. It's just game 163. You don't "really" make the post-season until you win that game.

Post-season meetings should NEVER be decided by a single game. Wild-card round should be a 3-game series.

Anyway, rant aside, looking forward to Sox-Yanks tomorrow.

Quite a sports week for me. Sox end the season with a comeback win and get home field in the wildcard game, Pats face Brady and almost pull it off, and now the Sox face the Yanks in the wildcard.

These are the weeks that take years off of my life.

Going to take a massive reversal of fortune for the Yanks to salvage their season now. Sox bullpen is looking solid. The only problem with this game is A-Rod's ridiculous work on color commentary :lol:

StarAC17 · Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:02 am

I am a Blue Jays Fan so I am a bit biased but still happy they won 91 games. They had the chance to get it done against the Yankees last week and did not control their own destiny.

The AL East has to be the hardest division in North American Sports with 4 team winning 90+ games and the trainwreck that is the Baltimore Orioles (for the time being)

vikkyvik wrote:
Just glad the Sox managed a comeback win yesterday over the Nats (even though the Nats are my NL team).

With that said, I hate, hate, HATE the wildcard game. In my mind, it's not even a post-season game. It's just game 163. You don't "really" make the post-season until you win that game.

Post-season meetings should NEVER be decided by a single game. Wild-card round should be a 3-game series.

Anyway, rant aside, looking forward to Sox-Yanks tomorrow.

Quite a sports week for me. Sox end the season with a comeback win and get home field in the wildcard game, Pats face Brady and almost pull it off, and now the Sox face the Yanks in the wildcard.

These are the weeks that take years off of my life.

Baseball needs to lower the season to 150 Games and end the season mid September (or heck even a week earlier). Add in 8 teams per league like the NBA and NHL and have two best of five rounds to get it down to 2 teams per league. Then the best of 7 ALCS/NLCS and the World Series will be unchanged.

These play in games are cool but add in another round of what would be nationally televised baseball which will be good for the sport. MLB clings to things just because of historic meaning and that failure to adapt are making it less and less relevant compared to the other 3 major sports* (there has been some progress though).

*Well at least the NFL and NBA, however the NHL playoffs are always exciting.

vikkyvik · Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:40 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Going to take a massive reversal of fortune for the Yanks to salvage their season now. Sox bullpen is looking solid.

I was not a fan of removing Eovaldi (who was pitching with some serious conviction), but luckily it worked out....though only by about 2 feet.

Aaron747 wrote:
The only problem with this game is A-Rod's ridiculous work on color commentary

That's the problem with every game on ESPN. I had the volume low enough that I didn't have to hear it.

StarAC17 wrote:
Baseball needs to lower the season to 150 Games and end the season mid September (or heck even a week earlier). Add in 8 teams per league like the NBA and NHL and have two best of five rounds to get it down to 2 teams per league. Then the best of 7 ALCS/NLCS and the World Series will be unchanged.

I would be in favor of reducing the season to 120 games. I mean seriously, that's still a crapload of games. And yes, a 16-team playoff would be just fine.

StarAC17 wrote:
These play in games are cool but add in another round of what would be nationally televised baseball which will be good for the sport. MLB clings to things just because of historic meaning and that failure to adapt are making it less and less relevant compared to the other 3 major sports* (there has been some progress though).

The wildcard game has only been around since 2012.

Aaron747 · Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:09 pm

vikkyvik wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Going to take a massive reversal of fortune for the Yanks to salvage their season now. Sox bullpen is looking solid.

I was not a fan of removing Eovaldi (who was pitching with some serious conviction), but luckily it worked out....though only by about 2 feet.

Aaron747 wrote:
The only problem with this game is A-Rod's ridiculous work on color commentary

That's the problem with every game on ESPN. I had the volume low enough that I didn't have to hear it.

StarAC17 wrote:
Baseball needs to lower the season to 150 Games and end the season mid September (or heck even a week earlier). Add in 8 teams per league like the NBA and NHL and have two best of five rounds to get it down to 2 teams per league. Then the best of 7 ALCS/NLCS and the World Series will be unchanged.

I would be in favor of reducing the season to 120 games. I mean seriously, that's still a crapload of games. And yes, a 16-team playoff would be just fine.

StarAC17 wrote:
These play in games are cool but add in another round of what would be nationally televised baseball which will be good for the sport. MLB clings to things just because of historic meaning and that failure to adapt are making it less and less relevant compared to the other 3 major sports* (there has been some progress though).

The wildcard game has only been around since 2012.

120 games, wow?? Owners and the leagues wouldn't like you LOL. I think 142 would be a good compromise. The season could remain April-October but allow each team to have 4-5 days off per month. I always get the 'don't feel sorry for millionaires' riot act from friends, but the current 162-game schedule is too taxing for clubs and their families. Allowing more rest in general would probably dramatically improve on-field performances and reduce injuries.

Newark727 · Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:33 pm

It does seem like this has been a pretty rough year for injuries.

Alias1024 · Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:24 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
At no time should anyone feel sorry for the Dodgers...like ever. Except for Vin Scully Day...that’s an exception.

I did say ‘almost’

Agreed on Vin Scully.

Newark727 · Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:09 am

Watching TBS' coverage of the LA/St. Louis game... anyone else get the impression that they really, really want us to be gambling on these things? :worried:

StarAC17 · Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:25 am

vikkyvik wrote:

The wildcard game has only been around since 2012.

This is a good start but we agree, we need an 8 team playoff.

Aaron747 · Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:32 am

Holy moly - we've got a historic NLDS on deck.

Newark727 · Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:59 am

Quite a game - you wouldn't know the Dodgers had 12 more wins from how close the Cardinals played them.

Aaron747 · Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:08 am

Newark727 wrote:
Quite a game - you wouldn't know the Dodgers had 12 more wins from how close the Cardinals played them.

True, but the Cards only have their bats to blame. Not going to win a tight game 0-11 w/RISP.

stl07 · Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:48 am

I was at the game as a cardinals fan living in LA. Our defense was insane (the only scores were on home runs) but we have zero offense

Aaron747 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:40 am

3/4 division series are tied at 1-1 going into game 3s - not a bad start. Lots more drama to go.

vikkyvik · Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:27 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Lots more drama to go.

I could use a little less drama....

vikkyvik · Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:20 pm

Dammit Red Sox, I said LESS drama, not more.

That said, glad the series is over. I didn't really expect the Sox to be contenders at all this year, so every win is a bonus.

Aaron747 · Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:30 pm

vikkyvik wrote:
Dammit Red Sox, I said LESS drama, not more.

That said, glad the series is over. I didn't really expect the Sox to be contenders at all this year, so every win is a bonus.

You must be very happy today

The Sox definitely have their mojo going. Some of us have more DS drama to contend with.

Newark727 · Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:49 am

3 of 4 division series decided, but SF and LA will undoubtedly give us all ulcers on Thursday.

Newark727 · Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:46 am

LA goes to the NLCS on a squeaker. Figures that they catch up to San Francisco at literally the last possible moment.

Alias1024 · Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:48 am

That was a horrible call from the first base umpire. What a terrible way to end the series.

Newark727 · Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:55 am

Alias1024 wrote:
That was a horrible call from the first base umpire. What a terrible way to end the series.

The umps giveth and the umps taketh away

Aaron747 · Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:55 am

Alias1024 wrote:
That was a horrible call from the first base umpire. What a terrible way to end the series.

Been watching SFG since 1986. What a terrible way to end one of their most unique seasons...ever.

Alias1024 · Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:28 am

Brutal ending. Still, an incredible season for a team that wasn’t expected to do much.

vikkyvik · Fri Oct 15, 2021 1:32 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
That was a horrible call from the first base umpire. What a terrible way to end the series.

Definitely an awful call. Interestingly, I feel like I've seen a lot of checked swings called strikes in this postseason.

That said, bad calls probably even out in the end.

Aaron747 · Fri Oct 15, 2021 1:36 pm

vikkyvik wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
That was a horrible call from the first base umpire. What a terrible way to end the series.

Definitely an awful call. Interestingly, I feel like I've seen a lot of checked swings called strikes in this postseason.

That said, bad calls probably even out in the end.

There were bad calls throughout the game to both sides - lots of high strikes, pitches that badly missed catcher targets etc. - but that one really took the cake.

That said, if Scherzer had leaked that one pitch to Wade Jr. just a couple mm to the right, the ball he raked foul probably would have found itself in the bay. We'll never know.

Newark727 · Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:23 pm

Even the LA Times sports columnists this morning referred to that last strike call as "egregious."

Newark727 · Sat Oct 16, 2021 1:42 am

FGITD wrote:
I think it’s done just to sell those awful playoff shirts and hats.

The Astros' say "H-Town" on them. Now I've never been to Houston before so I can't say, but does anyone who actually lives there call it that? Because it sounds ridiculous from here.

Aaron747 · Sat Oct 16, 2021 1:58 am

All I know is they need to improve the lighting at Minute Maid. The place looks completely dead on TV.

Aaron747 · Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:03 am

Long faces in Boston and big smiles in Houston. Let's see if we get a boring rematch of 2017 or if ATL can pull it out at home.

Newark727 · Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:14 am

Dirty cheaters. Well, guess we'll get to see how good they are without their trashcans...

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