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Aesma
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French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:57 pm

To vary a bit from US politics, we can talk about French politics !

For almost 5 years now, since the 2017 election of Emmanuel Macron, the 2022 one seemed set for a rematch, with Marine Le Pen getting to the second round again.

Polls are now showing for the first time an alternative duel, with yet another surprise candidate (Macron was the one last time) : Eric Zemmour, a far right political commentator.

Not all candidates are declared, some parties are still running primaries or even wondering how they will nominate a candidate. Some declared candidates might not make it to the election, as you need signatures from 500 "great electors" (mayors, typically) across France to get a valid candidacy, so fringe candidates have trouble meeting that bar.

Polls are conducted with between 14 and 17 potential candidates, and the mainstream right wing party (Les Républicains) has 3 potential candidates so pollsters are doing the polls 3 times with either of them.

You can see here that the Harris-Interactive poll from 1-4 Oct 2021 (in green : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election) gives Emmanuel Macron first with 24-27%, and Eric Zemmour second with 17-18%.

In the runoff, Macron would win 55% vs 45% for Zemmour according to the same poll.

Eric Zemmour is a very controversial figure, who has been convicted for racist incitment, and everyone (including him) is very surprised at his rise in the polls, considering he's not even a candidate yet. He has some similarities with Trump and says so himself, they're nothing alike though, he's very smart, articulate, he writes in newspapers and books, and he has strong convictions, he doesn't go with the wind. He sticks to some of his pet issues that are ridiculous or that no one cares about but him, like his defense of Pétain, or his idea of banning foreign first names for kids born in France.

Here is a decent article about him, a few days old, when he was polling lower : From TV to the French Presidency? A Right-Wing Star Is Inspired by Trump

I'm a Macron supporter, although I agree our immigration rules need fixing, in particular regarding the Maghreb countries. It's just not my number one priority.
 
ltbewr
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:07 am

We have seen over the last 5-10 years a shift to more 'conservative'. right wing, authoritarian political and governmental policy around the world. Like many other countries, France has been seeing that movement. For the USA, UK, EU countries, a lot has to center, depending on the individual country or region, on several critical issues that many believe politicians are not dealing with. immigration from poorer countries to them, especially from the Islamic world. Reducing access to legal abortions. Increased fear and desire to limit 'diversity' of minority ethnic, racial or religious groups as to jobs, education practices and what is taught. Objections to high taxes on the working and middle class. Lack of affordable housing. High crime, in particular violent crime. Corruption of those in politics and government. Too many decent paying industrial jobs shipped off to Asia. Not wanting higher motor vehicle or heating fuels or have tighter regulations to deal with climate change.

The 'Right' seems to offer simple and popular answers to deal with the above listed issues and others. Those on the right figured out how to use social and other web based media better than the 'left' or centrists to get their views out with little or no checks that used to be done by traditional media (newspapers in particular). Likely and hopefully the right wing candidates won't win, but those in the left or center will as has happened in the USA have to shift to a center-right position if they have any hope to be elected or re-elected.
 
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Aesma
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:30 am

1st round results of 2017 for reference :

Image

Macron is centrist, Le Pen far right, Fillon traditional right/conservative, Mélenchon far left, Hamon social democrat, Dupont-Aignan far right, Lassalle is drunk right, Poutou is far far left, Asselineau is far right (for Frexit), Arthaud is far far left, Cheminade wants to colonize Mars.
 
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saleya22r
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:13 am

his defense of Pétain

A bit strange for a man with a Jewish background don't you think?

1st round results of 2017 for reference

In October 2016, Juppé and Le Pen got 28% (intention to vote) in one poll followed by Macron with 14%, Mélenchon 13%. So it's a bit early to draw any conclusions yet. Now the popular ex PM Eduard Philippe has established a new party named Horizons, but he seems to support Macron in 2022, waiting for 2027..Not good news for LR I suppose! Zemmour will obviously divide the RN (Le Pen) and other extreme right voters if becoming a candidate.
 
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Aesma
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:34 am

Yeah a lot can happen. There is talk of Le Pen giving up in favor of Zemmour. If she was sincere in her beliefs she would do it, but since her party is her job, her business, I doubt it.

Then there is Hidalgo, she's so bad and polling so low, I can't believe she'll make it. I see the socialists getting behind the green Jadot.

Jadot is banging on about stopping nuclear and putting up wind turbines just when there is so little wind that old coal plants have to be turned on. Also his main argument that nuclear is very dangerous clashes with the idea of taking 20 years to stop using it...
 
737307
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:23 pm

I thought Barnier would run too?
 
Olddog
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:27 pm

Barnier needs to win his party primary to go further.
 
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SQ22
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:37 pm

Please provide a link to your source when stating facts, if not posts will be deleted.
 
 
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Aesma
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:04 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
I thought Barnier would run too?


He doesn't have much name recognition and isn't exactly charismatic so I'm not sure what he's hoping to achieve, I guess he goes by "you have to be in it to win it".

The "Les Républicains" party, LR for short, has had a vote of party members, who decided against a primary : https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2021 ... ntial-poll

You have all the details in the link, but basically there will be an internal party vote for members only, Michel Barnier will run against Eric Ciotti, Philippe Juvin and Valérie Pécresse (who left the party but will still be admitted). The hope was that Xavier Bertrand, who also left the party, would accept this format, but it turns out he was only OK with it if he was the only candidate...

OK just as I was looking for a link about that, Xavier Bertrand has actually announced that he would participate in the internal LR vote ! https://goodwordnews.com/xavier-bertran ... -congress/

So on the 4th of December (still far away) we will know who it is. It's almost impossible to poll internal party members so I won't speculate too much about the result.
 
737307
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:47 pm

It's getting confusing. So, Macron is not from "LR"? He has his own party?
 
Olddog
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:03 am

Yes and yes.
 
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Aesma
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:07 am

Emmanuel Macron created a "movement" called "En Marche" at first (yes, his initials), in 2016, while still economy minister under president Hollande. After he won the presidential election it was renamed "La République En Marche !" as a party (frequently abbreviated LREM, LaREM, REM or LRM; translatable as The Republic On The Move, Republic Forward, or The Working Republic. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_R%C3%A ... _En_Marche!)

Image

It's a centrist, liberal party. Liberal not as "left wing" but as liberal economically and socially. He liberalized the economy, and also made some progressive changes to laws regarding abortion or homoparentality, for example.

It's still mainly Macron's party, it might not survive beyond his presidency.

Eric Zemmour is rumoured to be following the same pattern and is in the process of creating his own party to run in the presidential election.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:26 am

Aesma wrote:
Liberal not as "left wing" but as liberal economically and socially. He liberalized the economy, and also made some progressive changes to laws regarding abortion or homoparentality, for example.


It's economically "liberal" in a very specific French understanding of that word. Nominally left or right, French politicans always push for more regulation, more taxes, competition is a dirty word, etc. etc. Even Renew Europe is having major problems with incompatibility of French and ALDE views on what it means to be economically liberal. French nomination of an ex-socialist for the leadership of Renew is a nice illustration of the above.
 
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Aesma
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Re: French presidential election : 1st round on Sunday, April 10th 2022

Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:27 pm

Yes liberal is a dirty word in France, however if you look at Macron's policies (excluding COVID related ones) he went towards liberalization and less taxes. For example he revamped the wealth tax so it only applies to real estate and not shares or cash, and lowered capital gains taxes from as high as 60,5% to a flat 30%. He also lowered various taxes on businesses, the payroll tax paid by employees for the unemployment insurance, and abolished one of the two property taxes we pay.

Right wing parties claim he didn't do enough even though they were unable to do as much in 10 years of power 2002-2012, and the left wants to undo everything, of course.

Here is the latest poll, representative of several I've seen (from several pollsters), putting Eric Zemmour at the same level or ahead of Marine Le Pen :

Image

It seems Michel Barnier is making some inroads, as the only "loyal" candidate to his party. I guess for LR he wouldn't be too bad a candidate, as at least he's different from Emmanuel Macron, a lot older and calmer.

At the top is the first round and at the bottom the second round, testing some candidates against Macron even if they aren't in reach of the second round.

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