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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:01 pm

A real advantage of community and utility scale renewable energy (both solar and wind) is that the grid could be capable of dividing itself into microgrids. Smart meters and minimal power storage for all users could enable most of us to do well on reduced power for at least several days. Just about every weather, fire, earthquake disaster would have seen most residents doing better with such a system.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:29 pm

Now this is thinking outside the box -
"Investors Should Get Charged Up About Energy Vault’s Elegant Power Storage" https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor ... 38418.html

Build a building full of heavy blocks, use pulleys power by wind/solar to lift boxes in air, generate power by lowering blocks when electricity is needed. Not sure you can patent that idea but .....
 
M564038
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:16 pm

Mechanical batteries aren’t a new idea, they have been specially much talked about the last few years.

Hydropower dams is of course built on this principle.

Wether they make sense on a large scale, well, gut feeling says no, but as usua, I’ll leave it to the experts to figure out the real facts the rest of us can base our opinion on.

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Now this is thinking outside the box -
"Investors Should Get Charged Up About Energy Vault’s Elegant Power Storage" https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor ... 38418.html

Build a building full of heavy blocks, use pulleys power by wind/solar to lift boxes in air, generate power by lowering blocks when electricity is needed. Not sure you can patent that idea but .....
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:18 am

That would either be one really long or really tall building to have enough stored potential energy stored to make a difference. Compressed air makes more sense.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sat Dec 25, 2021 7:27 pm

3 German reactors will shut down in 7 days, France is having to import power because of unscheduled reactor shutdown and design flaws, and now Belgium is going to shut down its reactors in the next few years. Can't imagine what spot electric power prices will be in Europe come January. Hoping that the wind starts blowing harder, the sun shines alot more, and Russia doesn't taper off the gas exports.

America is sending unprecedented amounts of LNG to help out. Its also making energy traders rich.
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sat Dec 25, 2021 9:14 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
3 German reactors will shut down in 7 days, France is having to import power because of unscheduled reactor shutdown and design flaws, and now Belgium is going to shut down its reactors in the next few years. Can't imagine what spot electric power prices will be in Europe come January. Hoping that the wind starts blowing harder, the sun shines alot more, and Russia doesn't taper off the gas exports.

America is sending unprecedented amounts of LNG to help out. Its also making energy traders rich.



Self inflicted wounds TBH.

Someone is always making money out of energy irrespective if it’s fossil or renewable
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sat Dec 25, 2021 10:42 pm

It doesn't pay to be the first sometimes....no nukes, no new gas or oil, no lights.
 
DLPMMM
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:22 pm

The operative word in the OP’s title is ‘could’…

But then anything “could” happen, but the probability is very questionable. It is all in the assumptions made in the modeling and the validity of the base model.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:54 pm

I’d suggest reading Dr. Steven Koonin’s book Unsettled to really understand “The Science”. He is a CalTech PhD, President Obama’s science advisor, has studied climate from various positions, in industry, government and academia. Better use of time cannot be found on the subject.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:52 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
I’d suggest reading Dr. Steven Koonin’s book Unsettled to really understand “The Science”. He is a CalTech PhD, President Obama’s science advisor, has studied climate from various positions, in industry, government and academia.


A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
‘Tilting at strawmen.’ Or ‘red flag.’ There are no finer shorthand descriptions of a controversial new book on climate science.


Link

If you want to recommend something, then please note that it is controversial to say the least. And in the link posted you can understand why that is.

Or perhaps even more clearly:

A New Book Manages to Get Climate Science Badly Wrong

In Unsettled, Steven Koonin deploys that highly misleading label to falsely suggest that we don’t understand the risks well enough to take action


link

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Better use of time cannot be found on the subject.

The quoted articles would suggest that it really isn't.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:09 pm

Have you read the book and the quoted potions of various IPCC RAs? Science is about inquiry, not fealty. I’d say his credentials are hardly that of a “denier”; more like someone who presents arguments. It appears that there can be no argument as to the accuracy and precision of climate models that inherently are subject to biases, limitations and are mere forecasts of the future. The true “deniers” are those who slam the door on any dissent.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:14 pm

The premise is wrong regardless. What harm is done in protecting the environment, even if climate change isn't man-made ? What harm is made in having clean air and water ?
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:43 am

Aesma wrote:
The premise is wrong regardless. What harm is done in protecting the environment, even if climate change isn't man-made ? What harm is made in having clean air and water ?


Compared to the air and water quality from the 60-70’s the world has significantly improved both environmentaly and economically, and that is with the growth of the population and use of fossil fuels.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:02 am

Is there any talk in Europe of allowing more gas drilling to alleviate the spiking prices? Or is the opinion that we are going carbon free regardless of the damage to the economy.

Burning US wood pellets and LNG is not as environmentally friendly as using the gas resources that exist in Northern Europe
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:19 am

Aesma wrote:
The premise is wrong regardless. What harm is done in protecting the environment, even if climate change isn't man-made ? What harm is made in having clean air and water ?


Because its a false dicotomy.

Nothing is free in life.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:48 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Have you read the book and the quoted potions of various IPCC RAs? Science is about inquiry, not fealty. I’d say his credentials are hardly that of a “denier”; more like someone who presents arguments. It appears that there can be no argument as to the accuracy and precision of climate models that inherently are subject to biases, limitations and are mere forecasts of the future. The true “deniers” are those who slam the door on any dissent.


Have you read the links to comments on what other people think about this book?
Any model is inherent abstract to the real world, any model has limitations, any model is a mere forecast of a potential future. All true and at the same time, it is also true that it is the best thing we've got. Those models aren't just created randomly, those models are based on historic data, going back millions of years. Data is stored in the ice, in trees, in flora, and in fauna in general.

Perhaps I will read it when i come round to it, but it will certainly not be the best use of my time on the subject.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:48 am

FlapOperator wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The premise is wrong regardless. What harm is done in protecting the environment, even if climate change isn't man-made ? What harm is made in having clean air and water ?


Because its a false dicotomy.

Nothing is free in life.


That is correct, someone will always pay the price for pollution.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 11:58 am

Burning locally sourced nat gas makes more sense than the coal and imported gas Europe is relying on now. But hey, if they want to keep weakening their economy and sending cash to other countries for the energy they will need for at least the next 20 years......

I say this as someone concerned about the environment. I recall the movie about the Allied effort to bring WWII to a quick end - "A Bridge Too Far". That battle reminds me of Europe's (and the environmentalists) approach to Climate change.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:15 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
I say this as someone concerned about the environment. I recall the movie about the Allied effort to bring WWII to a quick end - "A Bridge Too Far". That battle reminds me of Europe's (and the environmentalists) approach to Climate change.


You do know how critical the next few years are?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:31 pm

Actually "regular" natural gas, as is coming from Russia, is better for the environment than fracked gas, that can be worse than coal, CO2 wise.

Buying gas from Russia has other issues, though, and I agree that we shouldn't be importing anything for our energy (other than uranium).
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:27 pm

I'm not familar with Russian environmental policies but I imagine they aren't setting any benchmarks for environmentally sound drilling practices, methane capture and flaring. Certainly not like those in Europe.

Europe is the pathfinder (or guinea pig if you get the home heating bill) and the world is watching the results.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 3:26 pm

It's OK to use coal for electricity (or natural gas or wood chips), even that gas guzzling car for this short term energy crisis. And Germany really should delay closing those nuclear plants. But build out the renewables, now, today, tomorrow. Sufficiently so that at the next energy crisis winter we will need even less coal, gas, and nuclear. The plan need to be, we are moving forward fast.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:05 pm

But is there really a plan ? We're seeing this in real time with Belgium, they have decided to shut down their nuclear plants, and replace the missing electricity by relying on imports from neighboring countries. Without asking or coordinating with these countries, of course (Germany did the same thing).
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:11 pm

well that next energy crisis winter will be next year and the year after that and probably until 2030. Most German homes are heated with gas. Has anyone figured out how much electrical generating capacity would be needed to switch those away from gas, coal or woodl? Someone buying a 50000 euro gasoline/diesel powered car today is planning on running it for 8 to 10 years at least. All the trucks, farm tractors, and construction equipment will running on gasoline/diesel for many more years. I won't even go into the CO2 released by the hundreds of waste incinerators that Europe has.
Bang for the buck? Instead of chasing the small stuff, Europe would be better served helping the developing countries replace coal e.g. South Africa.
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 11:29 pm

Dutchy wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Have you read the book and the quoted potions of various IPCC RAs? Science is about inquiry, not fealty. I’d say his credentials are hardly that of a “denier”; more like someone who presents arguments. It appears that there can be no argument as to the accuracy and precision of climate models that inherently are subject to biases, limitations and are mere forecasts of the future. The true “deniers” are those who slam the door on any dissent.


Have you read the links to comments on what other people think about this book?
Any model is inherent abstract to the real world, any model has limitations, any model is a mere forecast of a potential future. All true and at the same time, it is also true that it is the best thing we've got. Those models aren't just created randomly, those models are based on historic data, going back millions of years. Data is stored in the ice, in trees, in flora, and in fauna in general.

Perhaps I will read it when i come round to it, but it will certainly not be the best use of my time on the subject.



Well at least you are starting to understand that the climate fluctuations can occur naturally, and the models always start with assumptions and you are now recognise that it is only a potential happening not a verifiable fact it is happening or is going to happen by the way of the modelling hence the modelling is not so accurate as it turns out
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Mon Dec 27, 2021 11:31 pm

Dutchy wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The premise is wrong regardless. What harm is done in protecting the environment, even if climate change isn't man-made ? What harm is made in having clean air and water ?


Because its a false dicotomy.

Nothing is free in life.


That is correct, someone will always pay the price for pollution.



And the future price of technology that could also harm the environment more than we currently are
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:05 am

A101 wrote:
Well at least you are starting to understand that the climate fluctuations can occur naturally,


Can you please show me where I say I did deny that?

A101 wrote:
and the models always start with assumptions and you are now recognise that it is only a potential happening not a verifiable fact it is happening or is going to happen by the way of the modelling hence the modelling is not so accurate as it turns out


As I said, modeling is per definition a simplification of the real world. So yeah, that is a limitation. That doesn't mean it has no use, and that doesn't mean that the trend it is pointing to is wrong. So people who do not want to accept the human factor in climate change, point to these things as an excuse to do nothing.
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:53 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:


Well at least you are starting to understand that the climate fluctuations can occur naturally,

Can you please show me where I say I did deny that?


You only have to look back a couple of pages to see your point of view in regards to how the levels are arrived at and the cause


Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

and the models always start with assumptions and you are now recognise that it is only a potential happening not a verifiable fact it is happening or is going to happen by the way of the modelling hence the modelling is not so accurate as it turns out


As I said, modeling is per definition a simplification of the real world. So yeah, that is a limitation. That doesn't mean it has no use, and that doesn't mean that the trend it is pointing to is wrong. So people who do not want to accept the human factor in climate change, point to these things as an excuse to do nothing.



It’s good to see you have changed your tune, but unfortunately the modelling is not on past levels but based on assumptions on future man made levels in which they claim we are in a “climate emergency “, in which I earlier showed the modelling were misleading compared to what is happening in reality.
 
M564038
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 12:21 pm

Again you are trying, with no knowledge or expertise, to second guess scientific consensus in the most important questions of our time, based on nothing but cherry-picking.

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Have you read the book and the quoted potions of various IPCC RAs? Science is about inquiry, not fealty. I’d say his credentials are hardly that of a “denier”; more like someone who presents arguments. It appears that there can be no argument as to the accuracy and precision of climate models that inherently are subject to biases, limitations and are mere forecasts of the future. The true “deniers” are those who slam the door on any dissent.


Have you read the links to comments on what other people think about this book?
Any model is inherent abstract to the real world, any model has limitations, any model is a mere forecast of a potential future. All true and at the same time, it is also true that it is the best thing we've got. Those models aren't just created randomly, those models are based on historic data, going back millions of years. Data is stored in the ice, in trees, in flora, and in fauna in general.

Perhaps I will read it when i come round to it, but it will certainly not be the best use of my time on the subject.



Well at least you are starting to understand that the climate fluctuations can occur naturally, and the models always start with assumptions and you are now recognise that it is only a potential happening not a verifiable fact it is happening or is going to happen by the way of the modelling hence the modelling is not so accurate as it turns out
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 12:37 pm

M564038 wrote:
Again you are trying, with no knowledge or expertise, to second guess scientific consensus in the most important questions of our time, based on nothing but cherry-picking.

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Have you read the links to comments on what other people think about this book?
Any model is inherent abstract to the real world, any model has limitations, any model is a mere forecast of a potential future. All true and at the same time, it is also true that it is the best thing we've got. Those models aren't just created randomly, those models are based on historic data, going back millions of years. Data is stored in the ice, in trees, in flora, and in fauna in general.

Perhaps I will read it when i come round to it, but it will certainly not be the best use of my time on the subject.



Well at least you are starting to understand that the climate fluctuations can occur naturally, and the models always start with assumptions and you are now recognise that it is only a potential happening not a verifiable fact it is happening or is going to happen by the way of the modelling hence the modelling is not so accurate as it turns out



Again go back a couple of pages and you will see the results of your so called CONsensus, all you have demonstrated was an article with no data backing up the so called CONsensus
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 12:54 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:


Well at least you are starting to understand that the climate fluctuations can occur naturally,

Can you please show me where I say I did deny that?


You only have to look back a couple of pages to see your point of view in regards to how the levels are arrived at and the cause


Please show us.....


A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

and the models always start with assumptions and you are now recognise that it is only a potential happening not a verifiable fact it is happening or is going to happen by the way of the modelling hence the modelling is not so accurate as it turns out


As I said, modeling is per definition a simplification of the real world. So yeah, that is a limitation. That doesn't mean it has no use, and that doesn't mean that the trend it is pointing to is wrong. So people who do not want to accept the human factor in climate change, point to these things as an excuse to do nothing.



It’s good to see you have changed your tune, but unfortunately the modelling is not on past levels but based on assumptions on future man made levels in which they claim we are in a “climate emergency “, in which I earlier showed the modelling were misleading compared to what is happening in reality.


I haven't changed a bit, I just follow the conclusions of the IPCC, because I do not claim to know it better than them. You are cherry-picking to get the results you want. You haven't shown anything, you are only claiming to show something and claiming to have come to a sound conclusion, which happens to be in direct contrast with the IPCC.
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 1:29 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Can you please show me where I say I did deny that?


You only have to look back a couple of pages to see your point of view in regards to how the levels are arrived at and the cause


Please show us.....


Ok;

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1466587

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

As I said, modeling is per definition a simplification of the real world. So yeah, that is a limitation. That doesn't mean it has no use, and that doesn't mean that the trend it is pointing to is wrong. So people who do not want to accept the human factor in climate change, point to these things as an excuse to do nothing.



It’s good to see you have changed your tune, but unfortunately the modelling is not on past levels but based on assumptions on future man made levels in which they claim we are in a “climate emergency “, in which I earlier showed the modelling were misleading compared to what is happening in reality.


I haven't changed a bit, I just follow the conclusions of the IPCC, because I do not claim to know it better than them. You are cherry-picking to get the results you want. You haven't shown anything, you are only claiming to show something and claiming to have come to a sound conclusion, which happens to be in direct contrast with the IPCC.


Are the experts who put out their own findings cherry picking and are they any different to whom you agree with?

I wasn’t aware you liked the Menura novaehollandiae
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 1:39 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

You only have to look back a couple of pages to see your point of view in regards to how the levels are arrived at and the cause


Please show us.....


Ok;

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1466587


That is not denying anything, so try again.
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 1:46 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Please show us.....


Ok;

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1466587


That is not denying anything, so try again.


Don’t need too, it’s all within this thread for you and all to read at their own leisure :D
 
M564038
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 2:29 pm

So, could you please quantify at what level of consensus you would agree on taking neccesary measures to save the environment for life on earth as wr know it? We are at 97% or a bit above that now.
98%? 99%? 99,99% consensus to save the planet?
Give us a number.

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:


That is not denying anything, so try again.


Don’t need too, it’s all within this thread for you and all to read at their own leisure :D
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Tue Dec 28, 2021 2:58 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:


That is not denying anything, so try again.


Don’t need too, it’s all within this thread for you and all to read at their own leisure :D


Right, a typical response from you. You do not want to.
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:36 am

M564038 wrote:
So, could you please quantify at what level of consensus you would agree on taking neccesary measures to save the environment for life on earth as wr know it? We are at 97% or a bit above that now.
98%? 99%? 99,99% consensus to save the planet?
Give us a number.



Really; you want an imaginary number to what could be a scientific consensus for action when no climate emergency exists, you are aware that it’s not a imaginary scientific consensus rhetoric that makes national policy, it’s a political decision at the highest echelons of Government
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:29 am

A101 wrote:
M564038 wrote:
So, could you please quantify at what level of consensus you would agree on taking neccesary measures to save the environment for life on earth as wr know it? We are at 97% or a bit above that now.
98%? 99%? 99,99% consensus to save the planet?
Give us a number.



Really; you want an imaginary number to what could be a scientific consensus for action when no climate emergency exists, you are aware that it’s not a imaginary scientific consensus rhetoric that makes national policy, it’s a political decision at the highest echelons of Government


What exactly is your point? Politics should take not into account science?

BTW there is a climate emergency, it is slow, but yeah the climate is changing by humans.
 
M564038
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:33 am

What will it take for you to recognize the (a) threat?

A101 wrote:
M564038 wrote:
So, could you please quantify at what level of consensus you would agree on taking neccesary measures to save the environment for life on earth as wr know it? We are at 97% or a bit above that now.
98%? 99%? 99,99% consensus to save the planet?
Give us a number.



Really; you want an imaginary number to what could be a scientific consensus for action when no climate emergency exists, you are aware that it’s not a imaginary scientific consensus rhetoric that makes national policy, it’s a political decision at the highest echelons of Government
 
A101
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Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:08 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Really; you want an imaginary number to what could be a scientific consensus for action when no climate emergency exists, you are aware that it’s not a imaginary scientific consensus rhetoric that makes national policy, it’s a political decision at the highest echelons of Government


What exactly is your point?


Well let’s see..............I don’t make up imaginary scientific CONsensus number, I leave that up to others

Dutchy wrote:
Politics should take not into account science?


Political decisions should be based on a number of things in this case science is only one of the things and all aspects of the scientific and economic costs should be debated. Greenhouse gases is only one part of the equation

Dutchy wrote:
BTW there is a climate emergency, it is slow, but yeah the climate is changing by humans.


As has been noted before and historical data shows, the climate constantly changes the earth both warms and cools naturally, the debate still continues.

If you believe there is an climate emergency why don’t stop all imports of fossil fuels and the burning of biomass by years end?
 
M564038
Posts: 1153
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 30, 2021 12:19 am

What will it take for you to recognise a threat of this sort?
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Really; you want an imaginary number to what could be a scientific consensus for action when no climate emergency exists, you are aware that it’s not a imaginary scientific consensus rhetoric that makes national policy, it’s a political decision at the highest echelons of Government


What exactly is your point?


Well let’s see..............I don’t make up imaginary scientific CONsensus number, I leave that up to others

Dutchy wrote:
Politics should take not into account science?


Political decisions should be based on a number of things in this case science is only one of the things and all aspects of the scientific and economic costs should be debated. Greenhouse gases is only one part of the equation

Dutchy wrote:
BTW there is a climate emergency, it is slow, but yeah the climate is changing by humans.


As has been noted before and historical data shows, the climate constantly changes the earth both warms and cools naturally, the debate still continues.

If you believe there is an climate emergency why don’t stop all imports of fossil fuels and the burning of biomass by years end?
 
A101
Posts: 3222
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 30, 2021 2:39 am

M564038 wrote:
What will it take for you to recognise a threat of this sort?
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
What exactly is your point?


Well let’s see..............I don’t make up imaginary scientific CONsensus number, I leave that up to others

Dutchy wrote:
Politics should take not into account science?


Political decisions should be based on a number of things in this case science is only one of the things and all aspects of the scientific and economic costs should be debated. Greenhouse gases is only one part of the equation

Dutchy wrote:
BTW there is a climate emergency, it is slow, but yeah the climate is changing by humans.


As has been noted before and historical data shows, the climate constantly changes the earth both warms and cools naturally, the debate still continues.

If you believe there is an climate emergency why don’t stop all imports of fossil fuels and the burning of biomass by years end?



What threat?
 
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Dutchy
Topic Author
Posts: 13100
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:24 am

A101 wrote:
What threat?


That indeed sums up nicely, your point of view.
 
jaro76
Posts: 75
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 30, 2021 12:04 pm

I'm a passive reader of the forum for years by now. This thread made me register. Just to give a bit background. I'm on a green side. My house is almost passive. I got my garden where I plant a lot of food for me. I'm even going to build own vertical urban farm and have my bees.

That being said, I have a question here for both sides of the argument involved. I crawled sci hub quite a lot trying to find studies that would verify some of the aspects of IPCC models. Was surprised that there are very few. After some time I had a chance to talk to a university professor involved in climate research. In private I asked him the same question. Where are studies checking facts that are base for the IPCC etc? His response was simple. You will not get any funding for those. No matter how good your premise, whether you are on the "green" side or the fact that you would be verifying. Anything even slightly outside the "consensus" or even possibly tiny bit questioning it will not be financed.

Question is, do you think, that our climate science has a good peer review? That second guessing. verification etc all was really done and properly financed?
 
DLPMMM
Posts: 2370
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 12:34 am

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 30, 2021 1:18 pm

jaro76 wrote:
I'm a passive reader of the forum for years by now. This thread made me register. Just to give a bit background. I'm on a green side. My house is almost passive. I got my garden where I plant a lot of food for me. I'm even going to build own vertical urban farm and have my bees.

That being said, I have a question here for both sides of the argument involved. I crawled sci hub quite a lot trying to find studies that would verify some of the aspects of IPCC models. Was surprised that there are very few. After some time I had a chance to talk to a university professor involved in climate research. In private I asked him the same question. Where are studies checking facts that are base for the IPCC etc? His response was simple. You will not get any funding for those. No matter how good your premise, whether you are on the "green" side or the fact that you would be verifying. Anything even slightly outside the "consensus" or even possibly tiny bit questioning it will not be financed.

Question is, do you think, that our climate science has a good peer review? That second guessing. verification etc all was really done and properly financed?


East Anglia University was already busted sending emails to other researchers showing how to “modify” their models with fudge factors to get the “proper” results.

Much of the modeling seems to be merely curve fitting without proper physics behind the equations.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5533
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 30, 2021 1:28 pm

Grants mostly are about very tiny pieces of the climate 'pie'. Measuring current temperatures of land, atmosphere, ocean, and the very deep ocean are difficult and expensive. As are determining what those past temperatures were. Cliff Mass, noted atmospheric scientists, is also noted for splashing cold water on most attributions of current weather extremes as caused by climate change. But he and about every other scientist in the field knows that CO2 causes global warming. The science goes back to the mid 1800s. There are an 'ocean' of unanswered questions, but what is known is scary, the unknown unknowns can bring strong men to the border of panic.
 
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Dutchy
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Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 30, 2021 3:56 pm

jaro76 wrote:
Question is, do you think, that our climate science has a good peer review? That second guessing. verification etc all was really done and properly financed?


That is a general problem with science these days, the incentives lie with publishing in high-impact journals, not with double-checking the figures once published. The peer-review process, before publishing, are the peers of the author, thus accomplished scientists themselves in the field. Is that 100% full proof, of course not, but it is the best we have.
In the end, scientists wrecking the figures will be caught.

To come back to climate science, there is a long track record with scientific research pointing in the same direction. So I would say that the science is sound and of course will be amended when new data comes to light. People questioning the sciences, most likely don't like the outcome.
 
jaro76
Posts: 75
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Thu Dec 30, 2021 4:20 pm

Dutchy wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
Question is, do you think, that our climate science has a good peer review? That second guessing. verification etc all was really done and properly financed?


That is a general problem with science these days, the incentives lie with publishing in high-impact journals, not with double-checking the figures once published. The peer-review process, before publishing, are the peers of the author, thus accomplished scientists themselves in the field. Is that 100% full proof, of course not, but it is the best we have.
In the end, scientists wrecking the figures will be caught.

To come back to climate science, there is a long track record with scientific research pointing in the same direction. So I would say that the science is sound and of course will be amended when new data comes to light. People questioning the sciences, most likely don't like the outcome.


About peer review I got a lot of stories how it "works" in scientific area. Because peers are usually colleagues, friends etc, no one wants to wreck the boat. So no one is really digging deep. So unless you are totally stupid, a lot of things is passing. Especially in areas that are not clear cut measurable. One example for all form my home country. I'm living in Slovakia. Each Bc, masters etc level program at university has to have a set of academics backing it and guarantee quality. Universities and programs has to be accredited by independent commission. Well, "independent" is better in this context as members of the commission are exactly the same guys who are backing the programs. End result is, that the quality of higher education went to hell over the last ~15 years with a crazy inflation of new programs and universities. Something similar is all around publishing and peer review world even on international level.

So back to topic. How you want to catch wrecking of numbers, if no one will ever see a single $/EUR for doing that? There is no financing for that in this area. You either do research that supports ICPP or you got no money from independent source. At least that is what I heard. Can you point me to a place where I can find all those verification?
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1912
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:14 pm

Sanity return to Europe (I hope)
EU drafts plan to label gas and nuclear investments as green.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/eu-d ... 01395.html

"Investments in natural gas power plants would also be deemed green if they produce emissions below 270g of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour (kWh), replace a more polluting fossil fuel plant, and receive a construction permit by Dec. 31 2030. Such plants must meet other conditions including that they are technically equipped to burn low-carbon gases.

Gas and nuclear power generation would be labelled green on the grounds that they are "transitional" activities - defined as those that are not fully sustainable, but which have emissions below industry average and do not lock in polluting assets during the shift to clean energy.
 
A101
Posts: 3222
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Half world’s fossil fuel assets could become worthless by 2036 in net zero transition

Sat Jan 01, 2022 7:07 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Sanity return to Europe (I hope)
EU drafts plan to label gas and nuclear investments as green.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/eu-d ... 01395.html

"Investments in natural gas power plants would also be deemed green if they produce emissions below 270g of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour (kWh), replace a more polluting fossil fuel plant, and receive a construction permit by Dec. 31 2030. Such plants must meet other conditions including that they are technically equipped to burn low-carbon gases.

Gas and nuclear power generation would be labelled green on the grounds that they are "transitional" activities - defined as those that are not fully sustainable, but which have emissions below industry average and do not lock in polluting assets during the shift to clean energy.


I can just imagine Greta reaction, full on meltdown


“How dare you, you have stolen my childhood, how dare you” :rotfl:
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