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c933103
Posts: 6422
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:17 am

Dutchy wrote:
c933103 wrote:
The question here seems to be, unlike UK joining EU which give bilateral open access to everything, UK's treaty with AU/NZ seems to be more limited, and open more of UK's markets to AU/NZ than AU/NZ opens up to UK.


It is interesting that this youtube clip points towards UK official figures. It points out that the gains in trade per Brit are about 0,5 pounds (plus 0,01% - 0,02% of GDP) and the loss of 1.250 pounds (minus 4,0% of GDP). Negotiations for trade deals aren't going to well if your objective is to make the British in general more wealthy.
In that respect, to answer the OP's question, the future of Britain will be less wealthy than it could have been. Will it be poor? I don't think so, just not as wealthy as it could have been. It might lead to more inequality, which might lead to more extremist tendencies, but that's about it.

Question would be whether UK industry is able to seek new partnership and form new collaboration in new trade agreements that will be signed into the future, like CPTPP.
And, in the current global economic environment, 4% GDP is like one year of economic growth to catch up with.
 
Cardude2
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:15 am

A101 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
A101 wrote:

I disagree on your premises, just because the SNP were victorious at the last election does not mean that a vote for independence is a sure thing, The next UK general election is not mandated until May 2024 Johnson if he is still PM he will not yield it depends on the next likly PM after that

The only legal way for Sturgeon either get Westminster approval or go to court, and it appears she is no longer up for a court case with her recent loss in the supreme court which ruled that it was against the devolved powers of 1998 Scotland Act.

The cynic in me thinks it was more of a test case to see how far she can push the boundaries and she came crashing back to earth

With the lords intervention I think I will be roaming the good earth for a couple of more decades and I dont see NI splitting from the UK any time soon


Nope, they also could pass a bill allowing for an election

Evidence:
https://youtu.be/RxfbESCyXG0 (Skip to 4 min) (it’s Ian blackford {SNP’s leader in Westminster} explains how it would be done)


No evidence that Westminster will pass a section 30 granting permission with the Johnson Government majority, that youtube video is an opinion not fact as I indicated in my previous, Sturgeon has to get Westminster approval or go to court, Sturgeon at COP26 has now ruled out going to court.

Just because the SNP think they have a mandate there is no onus on Johnson Government to grant the request


Ok you win on that front but the English cannot keep holding on forever. At some point before the end of the decade they have to give in or else not pretty things will happen as the Scottish are not people to back down easily.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 6:19 am

johns624 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
From an American perspective (that has done a bunch of research on the subject at hand) it looks like the UK will fall apart. Scotland will hold a vote before 2025 wether parliament likes it or not thanks to the recent support of the SNP party. Northern Ireland will eventually leave to Ireland because that’s where the vote is heavily trending with my generation (generation z). All that will be left is the welsh.
If the Welsh leave, Charlie will lose his title. :D


Wales may well continue to be a principality, just as Scotland has said it will continue to be a monarchy if they become independent.
 
flyguy89
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 6:23 am

Cardude2 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:


Nope, they also could pass a bill allowing for an election

Evidence:
https://youtu.be/RxfbESCyXG0 (Skip to 4 min) (it’s Ian blackford {SNP’s leader in Westminster} explains how it would be done)


No evidence that Westminster will pass a section 30 granting permission with the Johnson Government majority, that youtube video is an opinion not fact as I indicated in my previous, Sturgeon has to get Westminster approval or go to court, Sturgeon at COP26 has now ruled out going to court.

Just because the SNP think they have a mandate there is no onus on Johnson Government to grant the request


Ok you win on that front but the English cannot keep holding on forever. At some point before the end of the decade they have to give in or else not pretty things will happen as the Scottish are not people to back down easily.

Give in to what exactly? The Scottish may not be people who back down, but evidently most of them don’t believe in independence either. Save for a brief period of time at the height of the pandemic, polling support for Scottish independence has remained consistently underwater.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion ... dependence

So long as Johnson doesn’t massively screw up the economy and things more and more return to normal, Westminster has very little incentive to indulge another referendum.
 
A101
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 6:29 am

Cardude2 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:


Nope, they also could pass a bill allowing for an election

Evidence:
https://youtu.be/RxfbESCyXG0 (Skip to 4 min) (it’s Ian blackford {SNP’s leader in Westminster} explains how it would be done)


No evidence that Westminster will pass a section 30 granting permission with the Johnson Government majority, that youtube video is an opinion not fact as I indicated in my previous, Sturgeon has to get Westminster approval or go to court, Sturgeon at COP26 has now ruled out going to court.

Just because the SNP think they have a mandate there is no onus on Johnson Government to grant the request


Ok you win on that front but the English cannot keep holding on forever. At some point before the end of the decade they have to give in or else not pretty things will happen as the Scottish are not people to back down easily.



It’s Parliament and or party lines that will determine any bill to grant a section 30, but any SNP MP or any MP for that matter can put in a private member’s bill to see if it gets any traction. I think that is the best hope for building momentum in Westminster before either Johnson steps down or loses the next GE
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 8:06 am

c933103 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
c933103 wrote:
The question here seems to be, unlike UK joining EU which give bilateral open access to everything, UK's treaty with AU/NZ seems to be more limited, and open more of UK's markets to AU/NZ than AU/NZ opens up to UK.


It is interesting that this youtube clip points towards UK official figures. It points out that the gains in trade per Brit are about 0,5 pounds (plus 0,01% - 0,02% of GDP) and the loss of 1.250 pounds (minus 4,0% of GDP). Negotiations for trade deals aren't going to well if your objective is to make the British in general more wealthy.
In that respect, to answer the OP's question, the future of Britain will be less wealthy than it could have been. Will it be poor? I don't think so, just not as wealthy as it could have been. It might lead to more inequality, which might lead to more extremist tendencies, but that's about it.

Question would be whether UK industry is able to seek new partnership and form new collaboration in new trade agreements that will be signed into the future, like CPTPP.
And, in the current global economic environment, 4% GDP is like one year of economic growth to catch up with.


The UK has cut its ties with its most important trading partner. Each and every country does most of its trade with its neighbors, with the exception of Israel, maybe. And UK's neighbors happen to be the largest trading block in the world. At the moment it stands at 4%, but we haven't seen it stabilize yet. So that 4% might as well be the start. 4% growth is a big growth figure for an advanced economy, and remember that it needs to be on top of the growth figure of other advanced economies, not just the 4% in itself.

So I still fail to see where this magic growth should come from, no credible economist has ever said that the expulsion would be economic benefits. No credible academic has ever put forward a case where Britain has a new model to grow. As long as no credible person puts forward a solid case for growth, that 4% will only grow.
 
johns624
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:01 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
From an American perspective (that has done a bunch of research on the subject at hand) it looks like the UK will fall apart. Scotland will hold a vote before 2025 wether parliament likes it or not thanks to the recent support of the SNP party. Northern Ireland will eventually leave to Ireland because that’s where the vote is heavily trending with my generation (generation z). All that will be left is the welsh.
If the Welsh leave, Charlie will lose his title. :D


Wales may well continue to be a principality, just as Scotland has said it will continue to be a monarchy if they become independent.
Or, they could split away totally and make Charlie "King of Wales". That may he the only way that he'll ever be a king. It not like historically European royalty needs to be the same nationality as the country they rule. :lol:
 
vrbarreto
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:42 pm

Cardude2 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
From an American perspective (that has done a bunch of research on the subject at hand) it looks like the UK will fall apart. Scotland will hold a vote before 2025 wether parliament likes it or not thanks to the recent support of the SNP party. Northern Ireland will eventually leave to Ireland because that’s where the vote is heavily trending with my generation (generation z). All that will be left is the welsh.


I disagree on your premises, just because the SNP were victorious at the last election does not mean that a vote for independence is a sure thing, The next UK general election is not mandated until May 2024 Johnson if he is still PM he will not yield it depends on the next likly PM after that

The only legal way for Sturgeon either get Westminster approval or go to court, and it appears she is no longer up for a court case with her recent loss in the supreme court which ruled that it was against the devolved powers of 1998 Scotland Act.

The cynic in me thinks it was more of a test case to see how far she can push the boundaries and she came crashing back to earth

With the lords intervention I think I will be roaming the good earth for a couple of more decades and I dont see NI splitting from the UK any time soon


Nope, they also could pass a bill allowing for an election

Evidence:
https://youtu.be/RxfbESCyXG0 (Skip to 4 min) (it’s Ian blackford {SNP’s leader in Westminster} explains how it would be done)


They could also run a purely advisory referendum on independence and then take it from there :scratchchin: .. Any legal referendum would presumably have to go through Westminster.. I presume the SNP could simply throw a bung at a load of Tory MP's and get it done that way..
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 1:02 pm

I think the Scottish discussion has avoided the substantial issue that Scotland will not try to leave without supermajority of voters, and should there be such a majority it could not be denied. Open to discussion, is how large that majority would need to be. My guess, 56%?
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 1:39 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I see 3 outcomes:
1. Great Brittian will break up and will just be Wales and England. They will be full-hardened in their independence drive and remain outside of the EU and inevitably take the economic hits. But things will remain contained to that part of the English islands.
2. Great Brittian will rejoin the single market and become a kind of Norway, either the UK would still consist of the 4 nations, I would not bed on it.
3. Great Brittian will rejoin the EU within a decade


Recent article on the age demographics expecting a Breturn:

Temporary Brexit? Half of young British business owners expect UK will apply to rejoin EU

Source: City A.M.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 2:28 pm

phatfarmlines wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I see 3 outcomes:
1. Great Britian will break up and will just be Wales and England. They will be full-hardened in their independence drive and remain outside of the EU and inevitably take the economic hits. But things will remain contained to that part of the English islands.
2. Great Britian will rejoin the single market and become a kind of Norway, either the UK would still consist of the 4 nations, I would not bed on it.
3. Great Britian will rejoin the EU within a decade


Recent article on the age demographics expecting a Breturn:

Temporary Brexit? Half of young British business owners expect UK will apply to rejoin EU

Source: City A.M.


We'll see in a decades time. From a logical point of view and my personal believe, it is the best outcome of course.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 2:52 pm

May I point out that any re-application needs to be accepted by the each of the EU member states and that even if it were to come in a couple of years time -when the predominantly Brexit voting elderly have all passed away- it is far from certain all 27 (+any new members there may be by then) will want to see the UK rejoin in full glory.

After all, this whole process has been a very painful experience and a very time consuming one as well, so I'm not sure there will be much appetite to ever risk going through it again by letting the UK simply take back a full seat at the table in Brussels.

Besides, some countries have come to like their boosted status within the trading block which has not seen its international reputation and standing being deministed at all by Brexit. I doubt they will agree to move back in the picking order again. The French for one have blocked the UK's accession to the EEC several times the 1960s, they could very well do it again in say 2030 or 2040 when the demand comes.

I think that at best the EU will offer the UK a sort of a Norway option: pay up to enjoy the clear benefits of our market, but shut up for the rest.
The UK really has made a colossal stategic error by squandering Britain's veto in Europe: it's becoming clearer and clearer by the day.
Others will not just give it back like that, that is something that will become obvious too if and when the time comes.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:27 pm

And that modest vacation/retirement house came with all sorts of benefits like medical care and even more.
 
ltbewr
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:38 pm

To me the UK, in particular England (and perhaps with Wales), wanted to become like Switzerland. Have its own financial and banking rules, its own money, its own tax laws, not subsidizing other countries (like Greece), its own border controls (to keep out pesky migrants from Eastern Europe, the Islamic world, Africa), strict citizenship standards, its own regulations, to pick and choose what trade policies they want or not instead of all/nothing of continuing to be part of the EU.

Scotland will likely seek more autonomy within the UK as to day to day government, retaining tax revenues and how to spend them, own trade arrangements with the EU.
Northern Ireland is the big bugger of a problem. For sure the UK will not want to lose NI to join the ROI, but demographics, trade needs may lead to NI becoming part of the ROI. An alternative could be like I suggested with Scotland to have more autonomy.
 
Dogman
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:51 pm

I don't think there is a point to talk about re-joining yet. IMO there are a lot of things that need to be sorted out inside of the country by the British first. First Past the Post electoral system, for once. It allows a minority to wield too much power and leave many people without a voice, even thought they can vote. Britain may just not meet the Copenhagen democracy criteria.
We have the same system here in Canada, and that's one thing that I cannot forgive Trudeau, going back on the promise to reform it.
Also, even if a majority of the voters would be against leaving today, as it has been already mentioned here the rest of the EU countries need to agree to to accept them back. And who knows what conditions may arise during the application process. Spain, for instance, may ask for Gibraltar back. And that would be unacceptable even for those Brits who did not want to leave.
I also think that Scotland would leave only if the situation would become intolerable. It's just doesn't make any sense to divide a relatively small island into two or more states: the interdependence is just too great.
So, for sure leaving the EU will make the economic situation worse. But maybe it will make it sufficiently uncomfortable that the changes which have been long overdue will finally start happening. Like investing in their own people, because there is just no other option.
 
737307
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:17 pm

How is the situation in Gibraltar? Is that not in a similar situation as Northern Ireland?
 
A101
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:20 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I think the Scottish discussion has avoided the substantial issue that Scotland will not try to leave without supermajority of voters, and should there be such a majority it could not be denied. Open to discussion, is how large that majority would need to be. My guess, 56%?



That can only happen via legislation to which there is none, until that happens its via the current SOP
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:30 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
How is the situation in Gibraltar? Is that not in a similar situation as Northern Ireland?


Not really, Gibraltar is in the Schengen zone.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:32 pm

If Scotland wants a national referendum/advisory vote it will be very hard to stop
 
737307
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:33 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
How is the situation in Gibraltar? Is that not in a similar situation as Northern Ireland?


Not really, Gibraltar is in the Schengen zone.


So, Gibraltar is not part of the UK any longer?
 
Olddog
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:48 pm

I bet that the situation will not evolve until after the Queen death. For now institutions are frozen.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:58 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
How is the situation in Gibraltar? Is that not in a similar situation as Northern Ireland?


Not really, Gibraltar is in the Schengen zone.


So, Gibraltar is not part of the UK any longer?


Gibraltar's status hasn't changed, it is still a British Overseas Territory. But you have to show your passport if you come in from the UK. Pragmatic approach to have an open border. So Gibraltar is in the single market and the customs union and in Schengen.
 
737307
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:13 pm

Maybe Northern Ireland can have the same deal as Gibraltar.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:18 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Maybe Northern Ireland can have the same deal as Gibraltar.


Ireland isn't in Schengen because of the UK and the open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. So no use to get Northern Ireland into Schengen and given all the circumstances surrounding Northern Ireland, I do not feel that this would go too well with all parties involved.
 
737307
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:21 pm

Ireland should go into Schengen as well, IMO.
 
A101
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:36 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
If Scotland wants a national referendum/advisory vote it will be very hard to stop



Yeah they could but it would have no legal effect, and I believe that the EU would not recognise it either, much like the Catalan declaration of independence
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:46 pm

ltbewr wrote:
To me the UK, in particular England (and perhaps with Wales), wanted to become like Switzerland. Have its own financial and banking rules, its own money, its own tax laws, not subsidizing other countries (like Greece), its own border controls (to keep out pesky migrants from Eastern Europe, the Islamic world, Africa), strict citizenship standards, its own regulations, to pick and choose what trade policies they want or not instead of all/nothing of continuing to be part of the EU.

Scotland will likely seek more autonomy within the UK as to day to day government, retaining tax revenues and how to spend them, own trade arrangements with the EU.
Northern Ireland is the big bugger of a problem. For sure the UK will not want to lose NI to join the ROI, but demographics, trade needs may lead to NI becoming part of the ROI. An alternative could be like I suggested with Scotland to have more autonomy.


I think you overestimate how free Switzerland is from EU rules....

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
A101
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:51 pm

Dutchy wrote:
phatfarmlines wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I see 3 outcomes:
1. Great Britian will break up and will just be Wales and England. They will be full-hardened in their independence drive and remain outside of the EU and inevitably take the economic hits. But things will remain contained to that part of the English islands.
2. Great Britian will rejoin the single market and become a kind of Norway, either the UK would still consist of the 4 nations, I would not bed on it.
3. Great Britian will rejoin the EU within a decade


Recent article on the age demographics expecting a Breturn:

Temporary Brexit? Half of young British business owners expect UK will apply to rejoin EU

Source: City A.M.


We'll see in a decades time. From a logical point of view and my personal believe, it is the best outcome of course.



Not so logical from my POV, the inherent problems which lead to Cameron calling a referenda has not been addressed, nor will he even have those same opt-outs.

The only thing the young are concerned about is free movement, that to me is not enough a reason to rejoin
 
Cardude2
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 6:34 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
A101 wrote:

No evidence that Westminster will pass a section 30 granting permission with the Johnson Government majority, that youtube video is an opinion not fact as I indicated in my previous, Sturgeon has to get Westminster approval or go to court, Sturgeon at COP26 has now ruled out going to court.

Just because the SNP think they have a mandate there is no onus on Johnson Government to grant the request


Ok you win on that front but the English cannot keep holding on forever. At some point before the end of the decade they have to give in or else not pretty things will happen as the Scottish are not people to back down easily.

Give in to what exactly? The Scottish may not be people who back down, but evidently most of them don’t believe in independence either. Save for a brief period of time at the height of the pandemic, polling support for Scottish independence has remained consistently underwater.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion ... dependence

So long as Johnson doesn’t massively screw up the economy and things more and more return to normal, Westminster has very little incentive to indulge another referendum.


those poll numbers mean nothing, there are only 1000 people in all of these polls to 1 million Scottish people that voted for the SNP in the last election. For all, I know that could be a constituency (I think that's what there called over there) in South Scotland .
 
Cardude2
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 6:35 pm

vrbarreto wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
A101 wrote:

I disagree on your premises, just because the SNP were victorious at the last election does not mean that a vote for independence is a sure thing, The next UK general election is not mandated until May 2024 Johnson if he is still PM he will not yield it depends on the next likly PM after that

The only legal way for Sturgeon either get Westminster approval or go to court, and it appears she is no longer up for a court case with her recent loss in the supreme court which ruled that it was against the devolved powers of 1998 Scotland Act.

The cynic in me thinks it was more of a test case to see how far she can push the boundaries and she came crashing back to earth

With the lords intervention I think I will be roaming the good earth for a couple of more decades and I dont see NI splitting from the UK any time soon


Nope, they also could pass a bill allowing for an election

Evidence:
https://youtu.be/RxfbESCyXG0 (Skip to 4 min) (it’s Ian blackford {SNP’s leader in Westminster} explains how it would be done)


They could also run a purely advisory referendum on independence and then take it from there :scratchchin: .. Any legal referendum would presumably have to go through Westminster.. I presume the SNP could simply throw a bung at a load of Tory MP's and get it done that way..


now that sounds like a good idea
 
flyguy89
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 7:25 pm

Cardude2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:

Ok you win on that front but the English cannot keep holding on forever. At some point before the end of the decade they have to give in or else not pretty things will happen as the Scottish are not people to back down easily.

Give in to what exactly? The Scottish may not be people who back down, but evidently most of them don’t believe in independence either. Save for a brief period of time at the height of the pandemic, polling support for Scottish independence has remained consistently underwater.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion ... dependence

So long as Johnson doesn’t massively screw up the economy and things more and more return to normal, Westminster has very little incentive to indulge another referendum.


those poll numbers mean nothing, there are only 1000 people in all of these polls to 1 million Scottish people that voted for the SNP in the last election. For all, I know that could be a constituency (I think that's what there called over there) in South Scotland .

No, that’s why you do random sampling.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 9:37 pm

ltbewr wrote:
For sure the UK will not want to lose NI to join the ROI, but demographics, trade needs may lead to NI becoming part of the ROI. An alternative could be like I suggested with Scotland to have more autonomy.

I don't see NI becoming part of Republic for a long time, if ever. Recent opinion polls in the North show 49-53% of people want to remain as part of the UK, with the figures opting for a united Ireland as low as 30-35%. For years it has been assumed that Catholics would eventually outnumber Protestants and that would automatically lead to the island being reunited. But not all Catholics are in favour of changing the status quo. Things like the health service and cost of living are important to people, so while those opinion polls are aspirational, I have no doubt in a real poll those figures would increase and decrease respectively.

Then, of course, in tandem with any referendum in the North, a similar referendum would have to be held in the Republic. A recent poll shows that while 67% of Irish citizens are in favour of unity, only 22% would be prepared to pay for it:
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/c ... 75875.html
 
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Mortyman
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:12 pm

kaitak wrote:
There was once a country which had the world at its feat; its once ruled a third of the planet and while its empire was unsustainable, its influence was (and to a certain extent, still is) vastly disproportionate compared to its size; the very fact that English is the principal international language of commerce, aviation and various other areas is proof of that.

It joined the EU in 1973 and benefited from that, as part of one of the largest trade blocs in the world. And then, in the 1990s and 2000s, a group within the Tory Party began to grow and increase its influence, asserting that Britain didn't need the EU and would be much better on its own. Allied to an unprincipled leader who seemed simply to hold his finger up to see which way the wind was blowing and move in that direction, Britain left the EU, the promises leading to the Brexit vote having been largely illusory and inaccurate.

Now, I know that we've had several threads running into several pages each, arguing the finer points of Brexit, back and forth. That isn't really what this thread is about. The concern behind this thread is this: can it be said that Britain has created the conditions that might one day lead to the emergence of a "strongman", who could cause another European war? I'm looking far down the road here, but I think many clear-eyed people, particularly those with a keen interest in history, can see parallels and also, the seeds that might lead in a negative direction for Britain. Please be clear: I am not anti-British; my reaction to Brexit is not one of anger or hatred, but rather one of sadness.

Britain is said to be within days of triggering Article 16, over the NI Protocol, which it has already renegotiated twice and which the EU has unilaterally offered to relax. That would be an extremely retrograde step and would probably trigger trade sanctions. Is there a conceivable positive outcome for the UK from this? I struggle to see it. Without wishing to go over old ground, the original Brexit proposition and debate, back in 2016, barely mentioned Northern Ireland. The fact that NI voted by a considerable majority (not just the nationalist population) to stay in the EU was totally ignored; now, here we are. The UK and EU negotiated an NI protocol which the unionist-led NI leadership wants to reject and is pushing hard to get the protocol rejected.

Where do we go from there? There seems to be little appetite in the EU for giving any concessions and if, as seems likely, the UK triggers Article 16, it's hard to see the EU giving anything further; the level of frustration and exasperation at EU level is immense. Attitudes are hardening on both sides. Britain may seek to hold Ireland hostage (and I should say here that I'm Irish, so I'm not exactly a neutral on this issue) in any future trade negotiations; indeed, this has been hinted at in the past by some UK government leaders, including Priti Patel, the current Home Secretary.

Then, there is the attitude of the US government; it has already said that it will suspend trade negotiations with the UK if the Good Friday Agreement is undermined. Will it be neutral here? Probably, for now, but while the previous administration was pro-Brexit, the current administration is absolutely not. It is unlikely to side with the UK in any dispute.

What is the likely outcome of triggering A16 and is there any conceivable circumstances in which it can have a positive outcome for the UK. Britain has trade relationships with most countries in the world, but trade with EU member states outstrips all others; the EU, collectively, is Britain's largest trading partner. Its government is no doubt trying to game-play and simulate possible outcomes; it must anticipate that triggering A16 will result in trade consequences; is it prepared for this? Even if it decides not to trigger A16, is this the way things are going to be, going down the road?

And if it does trigger A16, causing a trade dispute with its biggest trading partner, what then? As I said, I struggle to see a positive outcome. However, to get to the "meat" of my concern, my hypothesis is this: just as warmth and damp create the conditions for mold, can it be said that the conditions being created in the UK could lead to civil strife down the road - a failure of food security (particularly if climate change and a combination or harsher winters and hotter summers becomes more common), mass unemployment and various others, combining to create a situation where a strongman could emerge, to solve all of this.

And you can bet, a hundred to one, that such a strongman isn't going to say, "look lads, we made a serious error leaving the EU back in 2016; we need to try and get back in". Oh no; that leader is going to point to the EU and its individual member states as the enemy and whip up anti-EU sentiment (and let's face it, he/she wouldn't have to push too hard for that). Just as in the 1920s and 1930s Europe, when anti-Semitism was always "there", and it took Hitler and Nazis to light the touch-paper and "legitimise" it, the same might be said of the EU and the UK. But it will be different; the new leader won't be a Hitler, or won't be a Trump; a ruthless and ambitious leader, seeking to capitalise on the situation, will have learned from history and will have learned from the likes of Hitler and Trump, but the message will still be there; in a country with mass unemployment and all the problems that will arise from Brexit, there will still be a need for scapegoats and I can see that a prospective strongman would need to deliver a subtle message, but the result will probably be the same. We'll see various "causes celebres " - probably LGBT rights, immigrants, foreigners, certainly foreigners from EU countries and - if Scotland becomes independent and NI reunifies with the Republic of Ireland, these will definitely be high on the list, with a drive to reunify the former UK.

Maybe I am being too pessimistic, maybe there is a way for Brexit to work well for the UK, but the very fact that the issue that is currently causing the strife and could lead to the triggering of A16 and all that will arise from that wasn't even considered in the lead-up to the referendum, doesn't offer much hope, does it? Yes, there may well be ways that Brexit can work well, BUT it seems that the ways that it can go disastrously wrong (and indeed, is) seem to vastly outnumber the ways in which it can go right. And it also seems to me that successive governments in the UK will, because of Brexit, be unable to deliver what the British people want and will be powerless to avoid the economic consequences of Brexit and deal with unforeseen shocks, such as freak weather/climate conditions, together with an economic shock - such a deep recession/depression, which might exacerbate the consequences.

If you have a succession of such governments and increasing frustration among the population, then just like the Weimar Republic in the 1930s, then you will inevitably see a rise of someone who promises a new beginning and then, you are back in the 1930s and '40s again, only this time, the boot is on the other foot. I hope I am wrong, but I see a progression towards a European conflict and as an Irish person, that fills me with some dread. I really, really hope I am wrong, but I do feel that things are moving in a direction which will be increasingly hard to pull back from.



Atleast British Airways is bringing back the Airbus 380 ... That's atleast something ;-)
 
Cardude2
Posts: 683
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:55 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Give in to what exactly? The Scottish may not be people who back down, but evidently most of them don’t believe in independence either. Save for a brief period of time at the height of the pandemic, polling support for Scottish independence has remained consistently underwater.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion ... dependence

So long as Johnson doesn’t massively screw up the economy and things more and more return to normal, Westminster has very little incentive to indulge another referendum.


those poll numbers mean nothing, there are only 1000 people in all of these polls to 1 million Scottish people that voted for the SNP in the last election. For all, I know that could be a constituency (I think that's what there called over there) in South Scotland .

No, that’s why you do random sampling.


that means nothing still as its a minuscule number to Scotlands population, come back when the surveys are at last 500,000
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3568
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:15 am

Cardude2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:

those poll numbers mean nothing, there are only 1000 people in all of these polls to 1 million Scottish people that voted for the SNP in the last election. For all, I know that could be a constituency (I think that's what there called over there) in South Scotland .

No, that’s why you do random sampling.


that means nothing still as its a minuscule number to Scotlands population, come back when the surveys are at last 500,000

Nope. That’s not how statistics work. Polling is almost never conducted with that large a sample size, nor does it need to be. Regardless, certainly not meaningless and quite a stretch on your part to think you can dismiss every poll by every firm on the issue.
 
A101
Posts: 2849
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:33 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
No, that’s why you do random sampling.


that means nothing still as its a minuscule number to Scotlands population, come back when the surveys are at last 500,000

Nope. That’s not how statistics work. Polling is almost never conducted with that large a sample size, nor does it need to be. Regardless, certainly not meaningless and quite a stretch on your part to think you can dismiss every poll by every firm on the issue.


But you can place doubt on there reliability when you look at most polls leading up to Brexit and UK elections

They do not have a good track record of late
 
flyguy89
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Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:23 am

A101 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:

that means nothing still as its a minuscule number to Scotlands population, come back when the surveys are at last 500,000

Nope. That’s not how statistics work. Polling is almost never conducted with that large a sample size, nor does it need to be. Regardless, certainly not meaningless and quite a stretch on your part to think you can dismiss every poll by every firm on the issue.


But you can place doubt on there reliability when you look at most polls leading up to Brexit and UK elections

They do not have a good track record of late

They’re certainly not infallible, but nearly every single poll demonstrating consistently similar results definitely provides some educated directionality as to where things stand.
 
Cardude2
Posts: 683
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:48 am

flyguy89 wrote:
A101 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Nope. That’s not how statistics work. Polling is almost never conducted with that large a sample size, nor does it need to be. Regardless, certainly not meaningless and quite a stretch on your part to think you can dismiss every poll by every firm on the issue.


But you can place doubt on there reliability when you look at most polls leading up to Brexit and UK elections

They do not have a good track record of late

They’re certainly not infallible, but nearly every single poll demonstrating consistently similar results definitely provides some educated directionality as to where things stand.


The only reliable way for it to be done is th get a much labor sample size or have it go to vote. So we need the vote
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3568
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:16 am

Cardude2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
A101 wrote:

But you can place doubt on there reliability when you look at most polls leading up to Brexit and UK elections

They do not have a good track record of late

They’re certainly not infallible, but nearly every single poll demonstrating consistently similar results definitely provides some educated directionality as to where things stand.


The only reliable way for it to be done is th get a much labor sample size or have it go to vote. So we need the vote

Not really. Randomized and representative sampling doesn’t require sample sizes of beyond a few thousand to be reliable:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -only-100/

It’s fine if you want to dismiss research into the issue because you don’t like the conclusions. It doesn’t however make your reasoning for needing the vote any stronger.
 
Cardude2
Posts: 683
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:42 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
They’re certainly not infallible, but nearly every single poll demonstrating consistently similar results definitely provides some educated directionality as to where things stand.


The only reliable way for it to be done is th get a much labor sample size or have it go to vote. So we need the vote

Not really. Randomized and representative sampling doesn’t require sample sizes of beyond a few thousand to be reliable:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -only-100/

It’s fine if you want to dismiss research into the issue because you don’t like the conclusions. It doesn’t however make your reasoning for needing the vote any stronger.


OK then if we look at the pose like that in reality and compare it to the May election, there’s a 50-50 split in the country
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3568
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:15 am

Cardude2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:

The only reliable way for it to be done is th get a much labor sample size or have it go to vote. So we need the vote

Not really. Randomized and representative sampling doesn’t require sample sizes of beyond a few thousand to be reliable:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -only-100/

It’s fine if you want to dismiss research into the issue because you don’t like the conclusions. It doesn’t however make your reasoning for needing the vote any stronger.


OK then if we look at the pose like that in reality and compare it to the May election, there’s a 50-50 split in the country

Does it though? It's definitely close, but if you want to look at the May election results as a proxy for independence, they pretty much followed the polling referenced previously with 52.3% of the vote going to non-SNP parties. And that, of course, assumes that 100% of the people who voted SNP actually support independence.
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 500
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:23 pm

I would hope any second Scottish referenDUM would not be based on the same simply majority of the first, or Brexit. I think as Brexit has shown making major constitutional changes to a country based on a few % difference is stupid. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a majority of Scots would want to break away (after what's happened the last 10 years), however I think it has to be a solid super majority, not a few %.
 
Bostrom
Posts: 1143
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:11 pm

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:38 pm

Dogman wrote:
First Past the Post electoral system, for once. It allows a minority to wield too much power and leave many people without a voice, even thought they can vote. Britain may just not meet the Copenhagen democracy criteria.


I think the House of Lords is a bigger threat to the Copenhagen criteria, having an unelected chamber in parliament doesn't seem that democratic to me.

Dogman wrote:
It's just doesn't make any sense to divide a relatively small island into two or more states: the interdependence is just too great.


If I'm not mistaken there is an even smaller island just west of GB where this has been an issue for 100 years…

Dieuwer wrote:
So, Gibraltar is not part of the UK any longer?


Gibraltar has never been part of the UK, it is a British colony since 1713.
 
johns624
Posts: 5170
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:14 pm

Bostrom wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:
So, Gibraltar is not part of the UK any longer?


Gibraltar has never been part of the UK, it is a British colony since 1713.
Does anyone else think that the situation of the Isle of Man and the Bailiwicks of Guernsey and Jersey are "interesting"? They are part of the UK, but they aren't. It's almost like they were set up to be safe tax havens for the landed gentry...
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 500
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:26 pm

Dogman wrote:
I think the House of Lords is a bigger threat to the Copenhagen criteria, having an unelected chamber in parliament doesn't seem that democratic to me.


Until the last few governments started filling it with buddies, and those expelled from or too useless to be an MP, actually it worked very well. Laws were discussed by people with a mix of real world experience and ex politicians. Their knowledge levels can be vastly superior to most MPs, and there is far less party political bickering. Things actually get done, compared to the US for example.

A rubber stamp of a bad government however, which is what we've had for a while now does nothing for democracy that's for sure. Putting newspaper owners in who have contributed to your party does nothing.

I would argue the more immediate threat, and something I've not understood for a long time is the ability for MPs to have other jobs, and be paid for those. Some make hundreds of thousands, some millions. And as we have seen the last week, some think it's perfectly fine to be corrupt and lobby for the people paying them. Made doubly worse but the government of the day trying to change the rules to save one of their own, and slander and try to push out the chair of the committee investing it. This is not what safe democracies do. Time for a clear out and change.
 
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eurotrader85
Posts: 341
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Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:26 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Ireland should go into Schengen as well, IMO.


Most Irish would probably not agree. It would break the Good Friday Agreement and Common Travel Zone with its biggest trade partner by far, and the current system gives it more control over its border and immigration. The UK and Ireland share immigration data on a very wide scale. Further what benefit would Ireland have in joining Schengen? Its only daily cross border workforce would come from the UK, outside Schengen. Being separate from Schengen was an opt-out the UK agreed with Brussels, but Ireland has reaped the same benefits just as much without the political agro.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 12943
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:37 pm

eurotrader85 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Ireland should go into Schengen as well, IMO.


Most Irish would probably not agree. It would break the Good Friday Agreement and Common Travel Zone with its biggest trade partner by far, and the current system gives it more control over its border and immigration. The UK and Ireland share immigration data on a very wide scale. Further what benefit would Ireland have in joining Schengen? Its only daily cross border workforce would come from the UK, outside Schengen. Being separate from Schengen was an opt-out the UK agreed with Brussels, but Ireland has reaped the same benefits just as much without the political agro.


If Ireland wouldn't be next to the UK, they would be in Schengen, I am sure of that.
 
Cardude2
Posts: 683
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:28 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Not really. Randomized and representative sampling doesn’t require sample sizes of beyond a few thousand to be reliable:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -only-100/

It’s fine if you want to dismiss research into the issue because you don’t like the conclusions. It doesn’t however make your reasoning for needing the vote any stronger.


OK then if we look at the pose like that in reality and compare it to the May election, there’s a 50-50 split in the country

Does it though? It's definitely close, but if you want to look at the May election results as a proxy for independence, they pretty much followed the polling referenced previously with 52.3% of the vote going to non-SNP parties. And that, of course, assumes that 100% of the people who voted SNP actually support independence.


But you forgot to factor in the fact that some people who support independence voted for either the conservative or labor. Adding for that you have a complete utter tie
 
Cardude2
Posts: 683
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:30 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
I would hope any second Scottish referenDUM would not be based on the same simply majority of the first, or Brexit. I think as Brexit has shown making major constitutional changes to a country based on a few % difference is stupid. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a majority of Scots would want to break away (after what's happened the last 10 years), however I think it has to be a solid super majority, not a few %.


Yeah that’s a problem, especially since Scottish independence looks like it will be the same thing. Same eventually with northern Ireland independence
 
A101
Posts: 2849
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: What is in Britain's future?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:42 pm

Dutchy wrote:
eurotrader85 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Ireland should go into Schengen as well, IMO.


Most Irish would probably not agree. It would break the Good Friday Agreement and Common Travel Zone with its biggest trade partner by far, and the current system gives it more control over its border and immigration. The UK and Ireland share immigration data on a very wide scale. Further what benefit would Ireland have in joining Schengen? Its only daily cross border workforce would come from the UK, outside Schengen. Being separate from Schengen was an opt-out the UK agreed with Brussels, but Ireland has reaped the same benefits just as much without the political agro.


If Ireland wouldn't be next to the UK, they would be in Schengen, I am sure of that.


That would depend on if the ROI/UK CTA was in affect still, and if the Island was to become one would either the UK/ROI want to keep the CTA in place that is the more serious question to be asked

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