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pune
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The falsification of economic news that is India.

Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:55 pm

There is so much falsification of news in mainstream media and even financial news that you don't know whether to laugh or cry. Consider this -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 853210.cms?

This is a country where 80% of the population survives on less than $2 a day :( Where was the above 'survey' conducted god only knows :(
 
art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:55 am

pune wrote:
There is so much falsification of news in mainstream media and even financial news that you don't know whether to laugh or cry. Consider this -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 853210.cms?

This is a country where 80% of the population survives on less than $2 a day :( Where was the above 'survey' conducted god only knows :(

Without knowing the economic status of those interviewed, this sounds like nonsense to me:

"While 74 per cent of Indian respondents are concerned about inflation. At the same time, 85 per cent of Indian respondents plan to spend on leisure travel in the next four weeks...
 
vikkyvik
Posts: 12696
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:58 pm

Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:50 pm

pune wrote:
There is so much falsification of news in mainstream media and even financial news that you don't know whether to laugh or cry. Consider this -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 853210.cms?

This is a country where 80% of the population survives on less than $2 a day Where was the above 'survey' conducted god only knows


The article states:

The consumer tracker is an online survey conducted on 1,000 respondents each in 23 countries.


There you go. Vast numbers of people in India don't have online access.

So I wouldn't call it falsification at all. It's simply a very biased survey.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:58 am

vikkyvik wrote:
pune wrote:
There is so much falsification of news in mainstream media and even financial news that you don't know whether to laugh or cry. Consider this -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 853210.cms?

This is a country where 80% of the population survives on less than $2 a day Where was the above 'survey' conducted god only knows


The article states:

The consumer tracker is an online survey conducted on 1,000 respondents each in 23 countries.


There you go. Vast numbers of people in India don't have online access.

So I wouldn't call it falsification at all. It's simply a very biased survey.


It's not biased, just utterly flawed. You need at least 1,849 respondents to accurately represent a population of 1.38 billion with 99% confidence level & confidence interval of 3. Even with a lower confidence level of 95%, you still need 1,067 respondents.

The results should just be thrown out.
 
vikkyvik
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Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:20 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
It's not biased, just utterly flawed. You need at least 1,849 respondents to accurately represent a population of 1.38 billion with 99% confidence level & confidence interval of 3. Even with a lower confidence level of 95%, you still need 1,067 respondents.


Even with 1,849 respondents, it would still be biased toward those who have internet access, which quite likely is not an accurate representation of the overall demographics of the country.

(maybe "biased" isn't the right word, I'm not great with statistics lingo)
 
meecrob
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Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:18 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
It's not biased, just utterly flawed. You need at least 1,849 respondents to accurately represent a population of 1.38 billion with 99% confidence level & confidence interval of 3. Even with a lower confidence level of 95%, you still need 1,067 respondents.

The results should just be thrown out.


Wait, wait...so I'm not exactly a statistician, but I can spot the flaw a million miles away if you think that 1849 people can accurately represent 1.38 billion. I get you are probably getting at an industry standard or something similar, but that just blows my mind. How did they pick those 1849 people?
 
bennett123
Posts: 10932
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Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:14 pm

Firstly anyone without Internet access is barred.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:44 pm

meecrob wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
It's not biased, just utterly flawed. You need at least 1,849 respondents to accurately represent a population of 1.38 billion with 99% confidence level & confidence interval of 3. Even with a lower confidence level of 95%, you still need 1,067 respondents.

The results should just be thrown out.


Wait, wait...so I'm not exactly a statistician, but I can spot the flaw a million miles away if you think that 1849 people can accurately represent 1.38 billion. I get you are probably getting at an industry standard or something similar, but that just blows my mind. How did they pick those 1849 people?


If you picked the 1849 people randomly (for example... let's just say using India's national ID card random digits) you can do some accurate work with 1800 people. For example, you could test the average height and weight of people in India. And your results would be correct. Statistics does work (there are laws and theorems in Statistics). But, it can be easily misunderstood too, even by scientists. It happens all the time.
 
meecrob
Posts: 365
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:15 pm

Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:31 am

I guess that is where I am getting hung up. How do you actually pick people at random? I get biometrics are harder to bias, but opinions are something different. It seems to me that even if you go into it unbiased, you will still end up with people who want to talk and not necessarily the whole population. Sorry to derail this thread, hopefully more people than just me are interested in the inner workings of polls.
 
pune
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Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:02 pm

meecrob wrote:
I guess that is where I am getting hung up. How do you actually pick people at random? I get biometrics are harder to bias, but opinions are something different. It seems to me that even if you go into it unbiased, you will still end up with people who want to talk and not necessarily the whole population. Sorry to derail this thread, hopefully more people than just me are interested in the inner workings of polls.


If you want accuracy in polling your numbers should be large. For e.g. say things like which CMIE.com does but even that doesn't take into account the population we have or the numbers we need and they poll into thousands on a daily basis. I had done a thread on Twitter though where I shared how CMIE does polling and from what is available as public domain knowledge the polling is around 1% of the population of nation. And they do this polling on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and they have been doing it for few years now. And this is just on sampling.So to get something real even from CMIE it has to be maybe at least 10 times of what they have but then there are costs at each and every level.

Now, if we even forget the numbers, even how the questions are put up could introduce bias in the subject or whatever is talked/shared/opinionated about. I like CMIE as they try to be honest and transparent with their dealings where most aren't.

An example of what I mean -

https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php? ... 2&msec=603
\
Most 'surveys' if you look into it in India closely, are often 'sponsored' by the ruling party. So one is left with nothing but positive spins.
 
pune
Topic Author
Posts: 1120
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: The falsification of economic news that is India.

Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:10 pm

One can consider this as well - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfda95oAsac

Interestingly, all the brokerage houses and rating agencies before the IPO were making PayTM as a gold/platinum issue or whatever. And this is a company which has never made a profit and perhaps will not in at least a decade's time.

Another interesting bit, the CEO of PayTM before or just after it had launched as an IPO gave an interview saying they could have priced it nearly 100% higher but they didn't as they wanted to give 'value' to shareholders.

And the above has been the story of almost all the big issues which have hit the stock market this year.

Even the big daddy RIL (Reliance Industries) have been shedding value over the last couple of years, even though the mother and son have fronted quite a few equity LLP and have bought shares with the idea of boosting the share price. The same with the Father and son as well. In other countries and financial markets (developed) both of them would have been booked for insider trading but not in India.

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