Illegal immigration is arguably the biggest contributor toward swelling rents and housing prices.
Net change in housing supply is the definitely the biggest contributor.
This. People not from here do not understand, but CA is incredibly built out. There is not space to simply plop new neighborhoods William Nilliam all over the place.
We can do small things like converting single family to multi unit lots —always a popular and desirable choice— and maybe a few other things. But by and large, there are no undeveloped areas from 710 west. Very few east of that, even.
No doubt the small growth in new housing is a contributor to swelling prices, but is it the driving reason?
It is the only
reason. Which goes back to the point of this thread. CA is not taking a net population loss. Domestically or otherwise. This causes housing prices to rise.
While it is true here as it is everywhere that housing investors are a scourge, they will be a problem until we get some credible rent control, and other measures to discourage and more specifically tax multihome ownership. We likely at least ten years from that becoming a real thing, but there is a lot of broad support for it out here.
In any case, investment housing also
would not be a problem if there were not a more or less constant influx of new people to CA. If there were any semblance of real loss, that market would not exist.
The payroll to support $1M single family homes isn’t there
It sure is for me. And most people I know and work with. Again, you would not have aprrox 1.5 million such home units in CA if the payroll "was not there."
Ain't that the truth: "South Bay is everything we need from a big city without being a big city." Although I have to say, North Redondo where I live and Los Alamitos where my office is seems awfully similar in terms of layout and vibe. To this day, I don't think I've even been to PV. That area of LA County seems extremely isolated.
Interesting about Los Alamitos. I bought a bike there a few years back, but apart from that I do not have any real experience there. Seemed nice enough though.
Yeah, North Redondo is great. I live pretty close to some of the major cross roads there there, and do appreciate just how much is walking and easy biking distance. And the proximity to the piers and everything they have going on only makes things better. I was impressed enough with the scene to buy a share in one of our local dives just as things were reopening. Suffice it to say, I am certainly not seeing much evidence of people leaving town.
PV was an interesting place. When I had visitors, I always like to tell them it is a great place to live, but you would not want to visit there. The neighborhoods are beautiful and clean, and the in SW corner of the peninsula, it is very
easy to forget you are in LA County. But there just is not much going on, and the Karen factor is very real there. You are right to think of it as isolated. No local FWYs, and the place feels like an Island. On the plus side, the Ralphs
at the top of Hawthorne is probably one of the most beautiful grocery stores I have ever been to. So there is that. . .
I didn't assert that immigration directly impacts housing values; I asserted that the immigration scenario playing out in SoCal status quo is impacting housing values.
The literal second clause of that sentence begs to differ with the 1st...
Texas’ claim to affordability is quite a bit more tangible when you look at the supplemental poverty rate which takes into account cost of living: https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/40569843
People do get paid more on average in California, it just doesn’t amount to much.
I think you are being more than a little general here. If you did a line by line for most industries, CA still comes out on top. By a lot. In my personal case, I know what I do about Austin as I recently turned down a gig there. It was for a three month shoot with a decent enough rate, and the points were not terrible either. But, like most cheap places, they only hire local. SAG/AFTRA allows me to work that, to be clear, but things like per diems, CA rates and other items —items that really need to be standard— will not appear in such a contract. In the end, it was worth it to hold out for another gig here. At half the time, I still come out pretty far ahead.
It needs to be stressed that this is actually very common across a lot
of industries. We saw similar wage and COL issues when I worked in aviation too. Ditto tech jobs, transportation at large, engineering, etc. There is virtually nothing —apart from retirement— where one would actually come out ahead
in a place like TX, FL, etc...
This is way too broad of a brush you're painting with to go only off of supplemental poverty rate. Within California and within Texas there are a lot of different COL indices.
Let's use one case study with relatives of mine and see in which capital they would be better off (as they live in CA's capital city). One is a school teacher with a Master's degree and the other is GS-10 at a federal agency. Where would they be better off?
TX vs CA average teacher salary with Master's:
$56K / $81K
Austin vs Sacramento GS-10 pay, step 5:
$67K / $72K
Average rents are slightly higher in AUS than SMF. So in their particular situation, they'd be giving up roughly $15-$20K annually in take home pay. Not chump change, especially to lose the Sierra Nevada as a backyard for their kids.
Interesting that rents are comparable for those cities.
their hatred for all things California poisons everything. They talk about California’s as if they’re a different species.
In fairness, I am not sure how badly I would want
to be the same species as people like that...
People in flyover country absolutely despise California and the people living there, so if you listen to any source with a right wing bias, the information you get about California will be wildly inaccurate.
It is a weirdly specific type of Xenophobia. I find though that that generally results from two categories.
A. People who tried, but could not hack it out here and wish to externalize their failures.
2. People who never even tried, and are just naturally envious of any success.
Either way, not the sort I would personally engage with.